Mini 751: Suzumiya Haruhi Mafia (OVER)

[Budja]

Fos Percy

I'll laugh if the Fos to lynch was a mistype.

[Budja]

vote: ortolan

There you go .

[Budja]

Seriphim, I think you could have waited until day 2 at least before saying this, you could have been NKed and saved us a lynch. Anyway...

I agree with Percy 100% on this. A quick lynch on day 1 is

never

good.

[Budja]

True, if we decide to lynch Seraphim today then it would be very hard to scum-hunt in the meanwhile as votes would have a great deal less pressure.

...

I'll save my vote for now but I think that we probably should just lynch him.

[Budja]

@veerus: I practically saw 5 people before me vote Seraphim (most without any objections at all) so everyone made it seem like it was going to happen anyways. I waited to see if anyone had any objections (Percy did). If I really wanted to maliciously hammer him, why would I wait to do it?

Ok. In my opinion that's not scummy. If anything, it's a little.. um, lemming-ish.

I agree, following the crowd still isn't that great. Assuming that Seraphim was telling the truth, the mafia would probably still want a quick-lynch to reduce the information given to the town.

If malthusis was scum, I think he would have just hammered.

[Budja]

You didn't seem to mind settling for a Seraphim lynch earlier. I don't like your sudden change in view.

UnFoS, FoS afatchic

The problem I see with what you said (as I have said before), is that if we keep Seraphim as our backup, our incentive to scumhunt decreases and votes lose pressure.
I am now leaning towards lynching Seraphim simply because of this.

[Budja]

You didn't seem to mind settling for a Seraphim lynch earlier. I don't like your sudden change in view.

UnFoS, FoS afatchic

The problem I see with what you said (as I have said before), is that if we keep Seraphim as our backup, our incentive to scumhunt decreases and votes lose pressure.
I am now leaning towards lynching Seraphim simply because of this.

I am pretty perplexed here. In the first part you suggest afatchic is worthy of a vote for changing his mind on lynching Seraphim- saying now that we should go through the normal scum-hunting process.

But in the second paragraph, you pretty much agree with what I have said and what he has just come around to. So how does him changing his opinion to match yours make him scummy exactly?

afatchic seems to be changing his stance just to follow popular opinion, scummy? Yes, I think it is a bit.

The problem I see in the "let's scum-hunt, but ultimately lynch Seraphim argument" is in thinking it's actually possible to scumhunt properly when Seraphim's lynch is a foregone conclusion.

I thought exactly like this yes, and then decided that it might just be best to lynch Seraphim. Despite what Percy is saying, I don't think the town can truely be swayed away from a Seraphim lynch and I believe that if Seriphim's demise can benefit the town, so be it. We may as well just do it and dispense of all the WIFOM. I'd say my position is similar to roffman's on this from what I have read.

To put my money where my mouth is -

Unvote, Vote afatchic
UnFos, FoS Seraphim.

[Budja]

No idea, I think it could be anything you said except modkilled. My guess is that it was role-based.

[Budja]

Well, if we believe what Seraphim said, I think he will return in some form on day 4.
I was expecting a death reveal with would tell us if we made the right choice but I can't say that we made the wrong choice yet.

I'm starting realize how lucky we are for roffman's ability that will effectively block all the mafia kills on one of these days, nearly giving us a free lynch.

Kill resolve in twilight .

Twilight is simply the last phase of day (after the lynch). - Tar

[Budja]

What I really don't like about afatchic at the moment was how he went from that that stance straight to:

Okay i have a new idea, since this situation seems to be spurring conversation, and would probably lead to some good scumhunting, i don't like the idea of settling with a seraphim lynch

in one post.

Fos: afatchic

I feel a little bad about FoSing someone who is probably going to be replaced but this is the scummiest thing to me.

[Budja]

Well, who do you suspect then at the moment then zwets?

[Budja]

Then go back and reread . Seraphim and Forbidden Light disappeared.

Does anyone else apart for Trumpet of Doom actually want to scumhunt?

[Budja]

I'm having problems with Seraphim's role. 1) his ability may be great for town in the future. But 2) the town ended day 1 super-fast based on his claim and got absolutely no information out of it. On top of that, we lost 2 townies overnight. How pro-town his ability could've been? It must be AWESOME to justify the chance of losing 2 townies. Tar MUST have thought of all this. And I just can't think of a pro-town ability that would be that GREAT to compensate for reducing town to 8 on D2 while not being game-breaking, especially in a mini.

It was Seraphim's interpretation of the role. Also, how were any of us meant to know we were going to lose two townies and FL was going to disappear. These circumstances were most likely not known to Seraphim.

Anyway, I hope he was telling to truth but I don't see a debate on this going anywhere yet.

So based on that line of reasoning, I'm inclined to think that there were at least one scum on the Seraphim bandwagon. With 3 of the bandwagoners out of the game, our search is down to 3 - afatchic, malt and budja. My money is on at least 1 of those 3 being scum. I'd like to see those 3 people give us an extensive post of what they think about who could be scum.

Alright, you can make that assumption

but

Panzerjager was also on the initial wagon and ortolan attempted to vote for Seraphim. Those people should also be on your list IMO.

I disagree that your reasoning leads to the conclusion that one of us must be scum. We assumed that Seraphim's death would result in information about his role and that we would have 10 townies today, rather than 8. You are drawing conclusions from hindsight.

I have given my view of afatchic but since he was replaced, it is difficult to question him about his actions . He still sticks out the most to me atm.

[Budja]

@Budja: Do you still maintain that the lynch was inevitable?

My basic point was that scum-hunting is difficult in such a situation as it is hard to put pressure on any player. I assumed (badly its seems now), that we would get full knowledge of Seraphim's role and still have 10 players by this stage.

Basically, We didn't expect this to happen as a result.
So Yes, the lynch probably was inevitable.

Rather than broad generalisations and modguessing, you should look at each player's motivations, their reasons (or lack thereof) for contributing to the wagon, and so forth. If you want to make an argument against each of those players, then actually do it.

Seconded, not all of us were of the Seraphim wagon for the same reasons. I am more suspicious of the earlier voters who gave no/little explanation, (Although the town alignment of DGB and FL doesn't really help me here).

[Budja]

I like most of Ortolan's answer, except the part where his excuse is that he technically wasn't the hammerer.

It doesn't look like an excuse to me, mearly clarification.

[Budja]

Ah, his first comment on the hammer looks like clarification, but his second is a bit of an excuse.
Thats what I get for skimming, I suppose.

[Budja]

Also, he doesn't even mention you as a suspect, even though you were the hammer. That's pretty weird.

Again, I wasn't.

That response seemed pretty pointless after you had already stated you were not the hammer and veerus had already given an explanation.

Making "excuses" for others behaviour isn't good either. I don't really feel that it was much of an excuse at all and not a scum tell, just seeing (I think) where zwets was coming from with his comment.

[Budja]

eh, thats weird.

Fos zwetschenwasser

.

[Budja]

Afatchic was more than indecisive IMO. He was town-appeasing. I mean, his view did entirely reverse very quickly.

[Budja]

I am still sorta of amazed that you still haven't gotten that Fos'es count as votes and votes count as Fos'es yet even when zwet reminded you. Percy voted for zwet, not you. Why do you still not get the point after 2 game days? Vote Panzerjager

Wait, you say Panzer post is scummy because he mixed up FoS's and votes. A bit much, .

Simply changing your opinion, divorced from context, is a null tell. Changing your poorly expressed opinions to even more poorly expressed, and possibly scummy, opinions is a scumtell.

You know what else is a scumtell? Posting one-sentence defences that misrepresent the case against you, and that being your only contribution to the game in recent (and almost all) posts.

QFT. Context matters. Afatchic was obviously crowd-pleasing with his complete reversal of views.

[Budja]

Percy's case is that I'm in too many games and that afatchic was a freak.

Ah, I think you are oversimplifying/misinterpreting the case here. Unsupported comments like this don't help you. If you don't want to be lynched, give us a better target, show some pro-town activity.

The zwet bandwagon is rotten to the core.

Why? I agree we you that zwet's is a bit of an easy target, but that doesn't mean we should turn a blind eye. I believed afatchic's actions to be scummy. Just because you suspect one person on the wagon doesn't mean the wagon is flawed.

[Budja]

Trumpet, I think I made it clear enough that I think Percy is scum, because of this case that isn't based on my playstyle, but on his adding words to his read of it.

This is your only post where you say you suspect Percy and it is fairly hypocritical considering all your recent posts seem to be "adding words" or misinterpreting others posts yourself.

[Budja]

Uh, Yes it is. Surely you can defend yourself better than that.

Quick example here from up the page:

My FoS on zwetschenwasser isn't counted? Let's try this again: FoS: zwetschenwasser.

What a great excuse to put me at L-1, ToD: "Let's see if my FoS works"

Misinterpretation: Check
Putting words in peoples mouths: Check

[Budja]

Why? Are these short, unsupported posts are meant to make me change my mind?! Get your act together.

[Budja]

It wasn't a misinterpretation. I think it was a calculated scum move.

Trumpet of Doom clearly explains that he was replacing his FoS on you as it had been (by error it seems) removed in the votecount. That is clear in his post and you should have noticed it.

I read your meta and you seem to like your short posts. Still, you ought to be able to explain yourself better.

@malthusis, you haven't said much today, what do you think of Zwet and Percy?

[Budja]

Note: it is L-1 on Zwet now.

[Budja]

vote: zwets

, yet again.

[Budja]

Go on Percy, it should take what .... 10 seconds maybe .

[Budja]

Fos: zwets

(thanks )

[Budja]

Indeed, we can't just give someone who looks very scummy a free ride, regardless of meta.

I would like to see a claim.

[Budja]

I don't like veerus's hammer greatly but he may have thought it was L-1 like zwets and others. Panzer's FoS was easy to miss.

Meta is a risky thing to rely on, ortolan. Remember, afatchic was quite scummy too. I still think there is a good chance of zwets flipping scum.

[Budja]

So, I say the same to him them. The case on zwets involved a lot more than a slight meta attack.

Your case against the wagon was basically meta and that Percy's was on the wagon.

[Budja]

OK, a quick analysis.

1. ortolan has been targeted twice in the game.

2. From his role PM, It appears ortolan only targeted FL. ToD and Seraphim are still a mystery.

- This means we most likely had a vig kill, night 1.
- I guess that ortolans RFM ability didn't resolve today as he was killed.
- I have no idea where the attempted NK of ortolan happened.

Thoughts?

Preview Edit:
@malt, yes I think so, but it might still not be permanent.

[Budja]

I think a vig is much more likely than two scum groups. We already have a SK.
You better have something to back your words up.

It is probably LyLo, 2 scum, 3 townies so I would be OK with a mass-claim.

[Budja]

Alright, I guess I better just come right out with this. It is pretty much LyLo .

I am Koizumi Itsuki, Townie Cop.

Role summary:
Each Twilight, I get an investigation. I can choose not to investigate once to avoid a possible nightkill.

My results:
DGB - No Result
Percy - Guilty

I don't really know what to think of Panzer. A possible bus on Percy maybe?

This should start conversation. Sorry for not waiting but I didn't think I should just sit on a guilty.

[Budja]

Oh and

FoS:Percy

of course

[Budja]

That's L-1 Panzer. Are you saying this because you believe me or just because of your "case"?

I don't just want a quick lynch.

unFoS Percy

just for now.

[Budja]

Wow, that is one nice fake-claim.

You are a "watcher/cop" type role then. Oh and look, you just happen have a guilty on me . How very... convenient.

You probably have a mafia safeclaim/falseclaim power similar to Ort. Tar made a nice one for you, but it is still a lie.

FoS:Percy

(considering I am at L-1 too)

I guess I have to believe that there are multi-scum teams now. It is the only logical way I can explain Percy and Panzer.
I am suspecting that Panzer and Percy could be from different scum teams.

@malt, The scum could kill each other off, Tar is known for screwing with people's heads.

[Budja]

Not no confidence. I want to actually talk. L-1 isn't safe.

Look, I am low on time now.

I will explain myself more clearly in 2-3 hrs from now. I now have almost definite proof.

Nobody hammer before then.

[Budja]

Alright.

On day 1-

FL was targeted by Ortolan (Proved by his role PM)
DGB was targeted.
Roffman was targeted.
AND: ortolan lost his 1-shot immunity.

Thats 4 NK attempts. SK, Vig and 2 scum groups. Explain that.

We certainly have a vig. If they claim and reveal their targets that could help. We are in a LyLo situation so it can't hurt.

Nice bit of distancing, again. Why on earth do you think Panzer is scum? You've never expressed such sentiments. Last we heard, you didn't know what to think of him.

People change their mind and develop idea when faced with a damn confusing situation like this one. I really don't know what to think of Panzer so I try to find the most likely possibility. Since that it is very likely we have multiple scum-groups from my PoV, then it is a a pretty good theory IMO. Before, I hadn't thought much of the multi-group possibility so it was much harder to decide if it was a bus, or he was clumsy/bad town.

I got a guilty on you, and then you lied about who you targeted to try and lynch the easiest target. If you had claimed to have investigated veerus, we could have talked about your sanity. You didn't.

In no way would I call you an easy target. I agreed with you pretty much 100% on the zwet lynch and popular opinion was on your side (sans Ortolan).

Also, if you got a guilty on me, then we would have talked on "your" sanity.

Do you realise how ironic this statement is?

No, it was not ironic. I claimed my guilty on you first. The chance of me hitting an investigating power (moderate). The chance that they also have a guilty on me(low).
The probabilities are way against you here.
Talk about misinterpreting me.

[Budja]

Panzer's campaign against you is pretty scummy so of course you would want to link me to him. It is an attempt to weaken my attack.

I know this is a bit of WIFOM but ifI actually was Panzer's partner and I saw that clumsy attack, there is no way I would "falseclaim" an guilty on you as you suggest. It would be insanely stupid.

I think you mean "give another explanation because I think this is the only one". To that I say, what about last night? There wasn't even close to 4 kills last night. I agree that there were four kill actions on night one, and I'm even willing to consider there being more than one scum group. The abilities in this game are much more complicated than in a normal game, and to say "4 night kills means Vig, SK and 2 scum teams" is a possibility, but certainly not the only conclusion.

Are you saying 3 isn't close to 4 .

Yes, I guess they are other possibitilities but this increases the chance of two scum teams.

Either-
- you and Panzer are scumbuddies (very unlikely, could be a badly thought out bus)
- you and Panzer are opposing scum (likely, explains Panzer two scum teams knowledge)
- you are scum and Panzer is town (unlikely, Panzer's claim gives a reason to attack you but not one to attack malt. Clumsy play maybe?)

I am guessing the most likely here.

I claimed because you lied; if you had started today with a discussion of your result on veerus, then we would be having a very different conversation now. Instead, you're lying scum.

How ironic, I could say something very simular. Until your "guilty" on me, I wasn't 100% certain you were scum.

[Budja]

@malt, what do you think of the 4 kills (or simular) day 1. Is the Budja/Panzer scumteam that Percy is suggesting still the best option?

[Budja]

My attack has no real substance?!

Compared to yours?

Major Points I have made:
1 - I've got a guilty on you
2 - You have a very convenient "guilty" on me
3 - No. of kills

Your attack on me uses Panzer for the most part and that you have a guilty on me.

You are better with words that I am but the plain fact of the matter is you have nothing more on me that I have on you.

Now die Scum.

[Budja]

Bad choice

I guess I could have flavored my role up a bit more but I was 100% honest. I would have been more creative with a fake-claim.

Vig Percy or most likely lose today. 1-for-1 isn't too bad I guess,

[Budja]

good game all.

Big props to Percy. He nearly convinced me there was only one mafia team. Our gambit failed badly .

@ roffman, I killed you simply because I recognised you . Looks like I've caused your death twice now.

[Budja]

I think our gambit wasn't half as bad a move as it looked. Panzer's first post of the day and Percy's investigation on me downed us quickly.