Mini 732: Dr. Horrible's Sing-Along Mafia (Game Over!)

[Yosarian2]

Yes, Captian Hammer's here, hair blowing in the breeze...the day needs my savings expertise...

[Yosarian2]

Reading now...

Fos:hascow

for suggesting it's somehow scummy for a vig to NOT kill night zero, when a scum vig could easily have just killed someone without any reason and gotten away with it it because it's night zero.

I would say that Megatheory is extremely unlikely to be the SK. What SK would pass up the opportunity to make two kills on N0?

One that did not want to very quickly be lynched.

...why would he be lynched? "Hey, I killed X; I figured killing night zero was a good idea, and his role didn't look especally useful." Would you lynch him for that?

[Yosarian2]

Apparently, last night I targeted fuzzylightning.

[Yosarian2]

Also, if we're popcorning, I want to hear hascow's target next.

[Yosarian2]

Yes. A vig kill N0 is unexcusable (In this situation. In future games where there might be odd circumstances, there may be a reason to do so.)

Vigging night zero is generally a terrible, terrible idea. It just shortens the game and means the town has less lynches. It's especally foolish to kill someone night zero, because then you get absolutly no information from them.

In a game like this, it might be a little more understandable, especally if you target a role that's more useful for scum then town (say, a doublevoter or something); still, random deaths usually hurt the town more then help it.

Curse Megatheory...I'd really like to know an excuse why he targetted Fuzzy. Because right now that's pretty suspicious- Fuzzy didn't seem that bad to me.

Really? Because it looks like he really only made one post that had any content at all, on January 30th, and that was pretty thin. Granted, he had limited access problems, but I don't get how you could look at Fuzzy's day 1 posts and say "Gee, he looks pro-town to me." At best, he looks neutral; and considering how little Mega had to go on day 1, because there was so little actual scumhunting going on, I'm really not surprised that that was the best he was able to do.

[Yosarian2]

The fact remains that off the top of my head I remember little about Fuzzy except that he was clever enough to watch for anyone trying to mess with Rishi's investigation-protections.

Hint: If you don't remember anything about a person, they probably didn't do anything. If a person dosn't do anything day 1, they're a good vig target.

[Yosarian2]

I didn't say he was way protown to me. I'm saying he wasn't that bad.

Well, he certanly wasn't that good. Killing lurkers and those trying to fly under the radar is a very good vig stratagy.

There are people I would have chosen before him, especially given his role.

Ok, who?

Also:

Also,

FoS: DanChaoFan

. How about we lynch those that we think are scum, hmm? It's a possibility that everyone on your don't-lynch list is anti-town. So don't limit options due to role.

Megatheory was probably following YOUR advice, and killing the guy he thought was scummiest without worrying about role.

[Yosarian2]

Also, notice what megatheory said yesterday:

FoS FuzzyLightning

Fuzzy has posted nothing of substance outside of his action last night and roletheory. Granted, we've only had one serious wagon so far, but staying under the radar is a common scum strategy and that's definitely what I see him doing.

I don't get why his action was a surprise to anyone. It's not like anyone jumped in to say "No, I disagree with you about FuzzyLightning!" after he made that post.

[Yosarian2]

I probably would have killed Danchaofan for doing the whole 'votes based on role' thing.

I'm not saying that his role should stopped Mega from killing Fuzzy, I'm saying that it was a factor against doing so when the argument for boils down to 'lurking'.

"Intentionally staying under the radar, posting without posting content" is a little more then just "lurking".

I might not have killed a watcher, personally; it's a pretty powerful pro-town role, especally in a smalltown game. Still, Mega made pretty clear he was suspicious of Fuzzy, and he had good reason for being so; all in all, it's not that surprising of a move.

[Yosarian2]

Although; you wouldn't kill the watcher because of his role, but you'd kill the Jailkeeper? Really?

[Yosarian2]

Um...wait...looking back now...you had a chance to take the tracker ability, and turned it down? And the only excuse you gave was that you were worried it might get yo u killed, and you said you'd "rather have a protection ability", which is crazy.

You're right, cop roles are very important to the town. But apparently, your own self preservation is more important to you then helping the town is.

Fos:Gorrad

[Yosarian2]

Think logically. The protective roles were going to be occupied with each other and (I assumed) the watcher. If I took the role last night, I'd be killed this one with no chance to use it.

If last night we had both a tracker and a watcher, and a confirmed innocent jailkeeper, along with a bodyguard that might protect one of them, it is not at all clear that you would be killed.

In any case, intentionally making your role less useful in order to get the scum to kill someone else seems less "pro-town" and more "scum who dosn't want to get crosskilled" to me. Especally since a scum wouldn't really want a watcher or a tracker role.

Now, at least, if I survive this night I can protect someone the night after.

...does that mean you didn't take the watcher role last night, even though you apparently realize that it's importance? We can wait until we get around to popcorning you if you want. Actually, let me change my order; Popcorn to Gorrad. I'm really interested in what you did last night.

[Yosarian2]

Hmm. I was going to say don't take a protective role, take an info role, but if you took a protective role now it'd be a weak doc, which also is an info role that'll let you clear people. Anyway, whatever you do, the goal should be to get info; there are no real power roles left anymore, so protection is basically useless to the town now.

Also, don't tell the town if it worked or not until tommorow.

[Yosarian2]

Just so long as he gets us some information tonight, if at all possible; remember, we're in lynch or lose tommorow if we don't lynch right today.

[Yosarian2]

Actually, scatch that. Weak doc is a bad idea. If we lynch wrong today, and he uses it and dies tonight, town loses on the spot. (Same reason I'm not going to be able to kill tonight.)

[Yosarian2]

Scratch that again. Not taking the weak doc is a bad idea. Sure, if we lynch wrong and he protects wrong, we lose, but that's just taking a risk. We may still lynch wrong, but if Gorrad takes weak doc and protects right, then we have another confirmed townie which makes one less person who could be scum. It narrows down our choice and makes it more likely to lynch scum tomorrow.

Let's say we lynch wrong today. Then if Gorrad is pro-town, and he uses the weak doc tonight, with 2 scum alive, there's a 2/4 chance he targets scum and dies (4 people alive who aren't him, 2 of them being scum), and if so the town loses on the spot. There's also a 1/5 chance him and the scum target the same person (actually, a lot higher then that, considering both him and the scum are going to be trying to hit someone who looks pro-town) in which case we get no information. So, (quick mental math..) There's a 5/10 chance town instantly loses, a 2/10 chance he gets no information, and only a 3/10 chance he gets useful information but dosn't make the town lose. And, to top it off, the information he would get isn;t likely to be THAT useful anyway, since he'd be targeting someone who looks pro-town, so it's someone we'd not be that likely to lynch anyway.

So, no. Trying to use a weak doc ability would be a terrible, terrible idea, just a really bad gamble. If Gorrad is town, he should probably take the watcher ability, and should definatly not, under ANY circumstances, take the weak doctor ability.

Of course, all that assumes Gorrad as town, which I'm really not that confident about at this point; I still have trouble seeing a pro-town Gorrad intentionally deciding he'd rather do nothing (especally in a game with as few nights as this one is likely to have) rather then get a tracker ability, just because the tracker might draw a nightkill; "hey, I'd rather be vanillia then a useful power role because being a power role might get me nightkilled" is NOT good pro-town logic.

[Yosarian2]

That's right; duh, if he and scum target the same person that person would live, lol. But, yeah; a 50/50 chance to lose the whole game for the town on the spot is way too high.

Jailkeeper wouldn't be too bad; if he managed to stop a kill, it might give us information (although, pretty ambiguas and unclear information, since we wouldn't know if it was the roleblock, the doc protection, or posssibly the commuter or Bad Horse roles that stopped the kill), and if it put us at even numbers it might give me a chance to make another vig kill.

Still, I think watcher is the best bet, that's almost guarenteed to give us information, might actually catch us a scum if he watches the guy who gets killed, and we can order the bodyguard to protect the watcher (that way, if the bodyguard is scum, he still won't be able to kill the watcher or we'll know the bodyguard is scum).

[Yosarian2]

I'm tempted to say that he should vig himself, as I find him pretty suspect, but if we mislynch today that could lose us the game.

Can we agree that no matter what, a mislynch today means he doesn't kill?

Actually, even with a correct lynch today, killing's probably a bad idea unless I'm pretty sure I know who the last scum is. There's a good reason to keep the town with an odd number of people; if we lynch right today, we go into tommorow with 5 alive and 1 scum, we have 2 lynches left; which is a LOT better then going into tommorow with 4 alive and 1 scum. So, yeah; like I already said, I'm not going to kill tonight.

(Same reason I'm not going to be able to kill tonight.)

[Yosarian2]

Frik. Sorry for the double post, but I just realised something. If Hasdgfas is scum, we're in basically LYLO. Tomorrow is three to lynch if we get two deaths by then- If we lynch wrong today and the mafia get a kill in, we're hosed.

How so? Hasdgfas is the bodyguard, right?

Now, on the other hand, if Porochaz is scum, then we're basically in lynch or lose; he's a double voter, so tommorow him an another scum could speedlynch a town and win. Is that what you meant?

In any case, either way, we only have 3 lynches left and we have to get 2 of them right. Our goal really needs to be to lynch right today, in any case. We've got 7 people, basically no abilities left worth basically anything, and 2 scum; what we need to do is good old fashioned scumhunting. Which means we need everyone to be active and posting, and we need everyone to be analyitical and to be activly trying to find scum. I'm not sure why, before I replaced in, everyone was sitting around waiting for claims, but that needs to stop now.

[Yosarian2]

Well, it's a point in favor of lynching Prozac, that's true.

Prozac; who do you think we should lynch?

[Yosarian2]

Catching up. At least not much has happened >.>

I don't like posts 242-244 that all comment on how nothing's happening, but don't do anything to cause things to happen.
Post 248 - Yos2: I prefer maximizing the amount of town-controlled kills. Sure, it might also be scum-controlled, but I still prefer using it. Maybe calling it scummy was a bit harsh, but I don't like a no-kill here.

Eh...town controlled kills is one thing, but a totally random night zero kill can really reduce the amount of days the town gets (if there had been one more kill night zero and it hadn't hit a scum, we'd be in lynch or lose right now), and it means the town gets a lot less information, since someone just dies without saying anything at all.

Post 252 - Yos2: Still want me to claim my target?

Is there some reason you don't want to? Everyone is claiming targets today, right?

Post 277 - Yos2: If you really think someone is scum, why shouldn't you kill them, even if it might lose the game for the town? Would you rather control it or have to convince the town you're right?

Eh...if I was really, really sure, I might, but meh. Even so, though, I'd rather lynch a scum in a 5 player lynch or lose then nightkill one, because lynching a scum in that situation often gives a lot of info that helps find the last one,

[Yosarian2]

I still don't see why there is so much being said against Gorrad not picking up the tracker. Were I the super backup, I would ignore the tracker regardless of role with the given scenario. The SK killed it with no knowledge of the person but instead for the role. Maybe I would have done if it were possible to keep it quiet and not draw the attention of the SK, but with the way we are popcorning every day, I don't see how that is really possible. If I'm wrong with this thought (which I seem to be) then tell me why because I

really

don't see why.

You are right, if Gorrad took the tracker role last night and said so now, there would be an increased risk of him being targeted by the SK. It's not that high a risk, though; as of last night, when Gorrad had the choice, there were two seperate protective roles left (of course, one was scum, but town-Gorrad couldn't know that), so if he took the tracker role, and thus made himself useful, there was a very high chance he might get protected.

Basically, I would expect Gorrad-town to make himself as useful as possible to the town, and not say "I'm going to be less useful to the town then I otherwise could have, because that should lower my chances of getting nightkilled a little bit." That's just terrible town stratagy, especally considering what his other options are; and his "I want a protective role" thing is just lame, considering how much less useful a protective role is to the town then a info role would be.

On the other hand, scum-Gorrad wouldn't even really want a tracker role, he'd much rather have a jailkeeper role or better yet a vig role, something he could use to really help his scum team; and he certanly wouldn't want to do anything to increase his chance of getting SK'ed, just like his scumbuddy Jebus had just been.

So, basically, Gorrad's actions there just make more sense from a scum point of view then from a town point of view. It's not a slam dunk; foolish as it is, I've seen some town make the mistake of being overly worried about the nightkill to the point where they didn't play as well as they could have been in order to avoid the kill; but that's just bad stratagy. Basically, it's a strike against Gorrad, no question.

That being said, Gorrad does have a point about Porochaz. Now, I'm not willing to lynch him just because of his role; that only gives us a 2 in 7 chance of hitting scum, we need to do better then that today; but let's just say that Porochaz needs to convince us he's town in order for us to take the risk of letting him live today. At least he's posting now, which helps his case a little bit there in my book.

[Yosarian2]

Gorrad: Lol. I appriciate the effort, but, is there any way you could lay out the case againt Porochaz in a non-rhyming way? (Other then his role being a threat, which we already know)

[Yosarian2]

Gorrad: Although, you saying we should lynch prozac because of his role makes me a little nervous, because you role is almost as dangerous.

I mean, if you are scum, then you could lynch prozac today, take his role tonight, and auto-win for the scum tommorow, couldn't you?

[Yosarian2]

Gorrad: Although, you saying we should lynch prozac because of his role makes me a little nervous, because you role is almost as dangerous.

I mean, if you are scum, then you could lynch prozac today, take his role tonight, and auto-win for the scum tommorow, couldn't you?

The auto-win you suggest here would depend heavily on who else dies tonight. Scum only win if they have an equal or majority rule that cannot be denied in any way. An accurate vig kill (if town) could balance it out or Plum's one-shot governor does not give the scum an instant win come tomorrow. Even if poro does die before tomorrow, I'm finding it hard to see the game ending there and then.

As I said, no vig killing.

You are right, though, that if the govenor is pro-town (and paying attention) he could possibly prevent a "1, 2-3" quicklynch using a double voter-scum and one other scum. Well, not necessarally; the scum could probably try another quicklynch after that, but the town might be able to quicklynch one of the scum first, I guess. Or something.

[Yosarian2]

Sorry to double-post: Do y'all realise that deadline is Saturday?

I want to hear from the people that aren't actually saying anything.

Oh, yeah, agreed.

Also, if you were going to vote for someone right now, has, who would it be?

[Yosarian2]

Well, I'm specifically interested in Cow, but yeah, I'd like everyone to answer as well.

[Yosarian2]

Now, here's something I don't fully understand. The case against Gorrad does seem to be based around him not picking up the tracker role at any time. Yes, there is a bit of controversy here, but it's still basically discussing his role and what he should have done. Then there's porochaz who, if scum, would basically end the game for us yet everyone is saying they don't want to lynch him based solely on his role. Why are we allowed to lynch Gorrad because of his role but not porochaz?

There's a difference between "X acted in an anti-town way with his role, that means he's more likely to be scum" and "Y has a role that, if he is scum, could be risky, so we should lynch him just in case".

In a smalltown game, all roles are assigned randomally, so just HAVING a certain role does not at all change your odds of being scum; it might increase or decrease the risk/payoff ratio to the town of lynching someone and all that, but today, I really think that we need to lynch scum, so I'm not so interested in that today.

On the other hand, what you choose to DO with your role can very easily be a sign telling us what you are trying to do, what your goals are, and therefore, what your alignment is. You see the difference?

[Yosarian2]

Actually, looking back at the game, my main suspect at the moment Master Ruck. Day 1, even though he posted a fair bit, he basically made no comments at all about who he thought was scum; he made this really wishy washy post about Tony:

I don't really know what to make of the Tony lynch to be honest. The argument against him seems to be a semantics battle at best, yet Pikmin mafia did show that scum do slip and should have been lynched for it then. One game does not account for all, though, so I'm gonna ignore the other game and see what I can get.

Tony is acting quite aggressively in his efforts to defend himself, and he may be overdoing it which is a scum tell, but the wagon on him did practically appear over night and I reckon anyone would be annoyed at that. Though, there is one thing he's said that concerns me.

I would like to state that I hope any town who is voting me for the "slip" chokes on my balls one day.
I also would like the chance to state my final thoughts before I get lynched.

Um, ok Tony. Go ahead. We're not stopping you from posting your thoughts. Why did you feel a need to ask? If you are town and you have anything to say, then just come out and say it. Why hold back?

It really looks like the scummy "He might be town, but he might be scum, but he might be town, but he might be scum" dance that I've commonly see scum do when a townie's about to be lynched; and nothing else, really, about Tony or anyone else. And today, basically all he's done is defend Gorrad, in such a way that I wonder if he's scum who knows Gorrad is town and is trying to get town points for saying so. He hasn't done anything all game that even looks like scumhunting.

Vote:Master Ruck

[Yosarian2]

Ok, yeah, I think I see that. Now Gorrad has publicly said he has taken the jailkeeper role. Does this not say anything of him?

Eh, not really. If he was going to take one of the roles that died yesterday, jailkeeper is the one that would be most useful for scum, I suppose; but I think there are also some logical reasons a pro-town might take jailkeeper as well (which we are not going to discuss at all in thread, since helping scum outguess the jailkeeper would be bad). Also, if he is scum, there's a chance he's lying about taking the jailkeeper role anyway. So, no, I don't think it really says anything about him.

[Yosarian2]

So while there are reasons for a townie to do as he has done, you're going to ignore that and say he's scum because he didn't take a tracker role earlier when he could have done despite it being a very clear risk.

I didn't say "He's scum", but yes, not talking the tracker role does seem somewhat more likely more likely a scum move then a town move.

Yet, with porochaz, heck, plum and malyss too, they have been lurking and saying very little all day and we're just going to let them get away with that? Sure, they're here now, but it took a prod and some calling out to do that. Scum kill their biggest threat in terms of power or how vocal they are, and here we are about to lynch that person. I still think Gorrad is town and I don't see where all of the case against him is coming from.

Porochaz lurked for a while, but he's very active now.

Plum hasn't posted much, and I'd like to hear more from him; but when he did post he looked more to me like someone who was actually scumhunting then you have.

Malyss; well, I can tell you as a fact that this:

I agree with the no-vig policy for this evening. I'm sorry that I've not been around much. I've been having issues between the bronchitis and my spine turning on me and not being my friend lately.

is, sadly, 100% true. I'd like to hear more from her as well, but I do know that her lack of activity today has nothing to do with her alignment at all.

So, that's why I'm voting you. Gorrad might be scum or he might be town, I could see it either way, but you really look like scum to me.

[Yosarian2]

Hmmm...3 minutes to deadline. I wish we had a votecount, but it looks like it's going to be a no-lynch.

Well, that's actually not terrible; if there's a no-lynch, then I will vig kill tonight. Gorrad, DO NOT ROLEBLOCK ME if there is not a lynch today; we really don't really want to go into tommorow with 6 people and 2 scum.

[Yosarian2]

whether voting now, after deadline has theoretically hit, will do any good?

I don't know. Usually not, but it depends on the mod.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, if you vig tonight, vig Porochaz. If your kill and mafia's go through, then we're at five tomorrow and Poro-scum can quicklynch.

wow is that scummy.

vote: Gorrad

Truth be told, I'd rather no night kill at all and Yos' change of heart is worrying. I just don't want it to screw us all over.

I said I wouldn't nightkill if we lynched today, becasue that could cost us the game, and because it's better for the town to stay on odds.

Six people and two scum means we can't be quicklynched. Five people and two scum means we can. I'd rather the former.

If there's 6 people and 2 scum, we still lose if we lynch wrong, but we only have a 2/6 chance of lynching right, instead of a 2/5; and then if we do, we only have a 1/4 chance of lynching right the next day, instead of a 1/3. Being on "even numbers" like that really hurts the towns chances of winning; the reason I wasn't going to kill even if we lynched correctly today was beause I'd rather be on odd numbers (5 people tommorow) rather then even numbers (4 people tommorow).

[Yosarian2]

Mod: So...is the day over? Did we get a deadline extention?

Gorrrad: If you really think that we'd be better with 6 people and 2 scum tommorow, then why weren't you pushing for a no-lynch today? The fact is, 6 people is a horrible condition to be in; if we got to tommorow with 6 people, then we'd probably have to no-lynch and give the scum a free kill just to get back to odds, and then we'd still be in danger if prozac is scum.

If you really think he's scum, you need to convince me of that, and if you do I can take care of it. But I'm not going to kill him for you just because his role might be a threat if he's scum, especally since, as was pointed out, it still wouldn't be an auto-scum win, unless the mayor is also scum. And I'm certanly not going to not kill, and basically make the day a no-lynch, either.

Then again; come to think of it, if I don't get killed tonight, then I can nightkill tommorow, and along with a lynch tommorow that can bring us down to odds; and if you jailkeep me then I can't be nightkilled. So, I don't really care if you jailkeep me or not; if you're town, flip a coin or something, keep the scum guessing, and just the WIFOM of it might be enough to keep me alive.

[Yosarian2]

Because we'd be better with 6/2 only if Porochaz is alive. 5/2 would be better with his death.

If porochaz is scum, that might be true, although even then I'm not certain of it. If porochaz is town, then going into tommorow 5/2 is much better for the town in many ways, and it also confirmes him as town when the scum don't quicklynch. It's a risk, though, sure.

Your obsession with odds is overriding your thinking.

You know what the town's odds of winning are if we do it your way?

1/3 chance of lynching right tommorow, 1/4 chance of lynching right the next day, that's a 1/12 chance of winning. Of course, that's only if we lynch randomally, but nothing in how today went makes me at all confident in how the town is going to lynch correctly, especally after I'm dead.

Plus, even if Plum saves one lynch (Which is doubtful considering her severe inactivity), the scum just need to lynch someone else. Plum can only give a quick-draw situation.

Well, right; game goes into twilight, plum saves the lynch, and the town then knows who BOTH of the scum are. Yeah, it's a who-votes-first-wins situation after the twilight ends and we go back into day, but if the town knows who the scum are, and has a little time to plan during twilight, I think we'd have a pretty good chance there.

[Yosarian2]

In other words, if I think Porochaz is likely scum, right play for me here would be to kill porochaz. If I don't think he's likely scum, right play for me is to kill someone I think is likely scum (since if I don't think he's scum, your nightmare speedlynch scenerio isn't at really a threat). There is no scenerio where no-killing would be the right play, now that the town has failed to lynch.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, we need a prod on people, definatly.

I still am reasonably happy with my vote on Ruck, I suppose.

[Yosarian2]

Dude...if you're town, why would you do that? We still had time left, we were waiting for a replacement, and we really needed to lynch right today.

On a side note, if I die tonight, it almost certanly means that Gorrad is scum.

[Yosarian2]

I think Gorrad does.

Either he just blocked the scum, or he just protected the guy the scum was about to kill, or he's the scum and he chose not to kill in order to make it look like he stopped the kill. Either way, he's the one I want to hear from.

[Yosarian2]

Oh; it just occured to me that it's also possible the scum tried to kill you, empking, and your astetic role saved you. It's not likely, though; considering the risk of targeting you is so high here. Most likely, Gorrad is the key here.

[Yosarian2]

Wow...interesting.

I highly doubt any scum would have tried to kill porochaz. So, Gorrad's jailkeep means that either Porochaz is scum, Gorrad is scum and lying, or the scum didn't submit a nightkill in order to try and mess with us. And the third one seems pretty unlikely to me.

[Yosarian2]

Given the numbers, he could have been targetted as town by scum just to reduce their odds of being lynched.

Neah, that dosn't really make sense; yesterday, the two biggest suspects (other then the lurkerscum I caught) were you and porochaz; consdiering the scum needed two more mislynches to win as of last night, if the scum was someone else, I'd expect them to try to get both you and porochaz mislynched. There's no reason for them to try and kill someone who's likely to get lynched.

Especally since he was probably going to vote you anyway; just because he's a double voter, getting rid of him dosn't actually "reduce the scum's odds of being lynched".

[Yosarian2]

Actually...

Hmmm, let me think about this. Assume that either Gorrad or porochaz is probably scum. We lynch porochaz today. If that dosn't win us the game on the spot, I vig Gorrad tonight. He could roleblock me, but if he does, then he can't also kill at the same time (right? scum can't kill and use their ability the same night, correct?), so we'd go into tommorow with still 5 people left, giving the town 2 more lynches. Or, if we lynch porochaz and I kill Gorrad and by some bizzare chance neither of you is scum, town still gets one more lynch anyway, since there'll still be 3 people left.

Yeah, I like those odds.

Vote:Porochaz

[Yosarian2]

Oh, I agree.

I probably don't have to say this, but I obv didn't kill last night, like I said.

[Yosarian2]

I targetted Has.

If its between Gorrad and Porro, I'd have to say that I think Gorrad has been scummy all game and Poro hasn't.

I would agree, but I'm not sure Gorrad-scum would have said "I roleblocked Porochaz", doing it like that would seem to guarentee his loss if so.

Anyway, it dosn't really matter. We lynch one today, I vig the other one tonight, town wins either way.

[Yosarian2]

If Poro is lynched, I'd rather you not vig one.

Huh?

There's 6 people left right now. If we lynch today and the scum kill tonight, and I don't vig, we go into tommorow with 4 people left. I would probably be dead, and the town would then have to lynch out of 4 people, or else no-lynch so they can get 3 people.

If we don't win the game today, then I need to vig tonight.

[Yosarian2]

Ah, ok. Yeah, there was no kill last night.

Which is actually why I tend to believe Gorrad over Porochaz at the moment, even though I was convinced Gorrad was probably scum at the end of yesterday.

[Yosarian2]

(I didn't mean to hit enter there, lol. Consider this part of the same post)

The reasn I tend to believe that Gorrad's jailkeeping prevented a kill is that it dosn't really make any sense for Gorrad to not kill just in order to get one mislynch, since now instead of 2 lynches town gets 2 lynches and a vig kill anyway.

That's just me, though. It's possible Gorrad-scum didn't think it all the way through.

In any case, I highly doubt hascow would be silly enough to try to kill the one person who can self-protect, so I'm really thinking the scum is either Porochaz or Gorrad here.

[Yosarian2]

I'm still not ruling out A) You being scum

You should, if you were paying attention to what happened yesterday.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, since like 3 people who should know better have suggested they think I might be scum:

Yesterday, there were 2 votes on Gorrad and 2 votes on Porochaz. If I was scum, they would have both been town, and I could easily have pushed the lynch either way by supporting one wagon or the other. If Gorrad was town and I had pushed for Gorrad to be lynched, then there would have been 2 scum last night, and between the scum kill and my vig kill, since town would have had no way to prevent either one with Gorrad dead, scum would have won last night.

If I was scum, the game would be over now. Instead, I caught a different scum, someone no one else suspected at all, and ran him up to a lynch.

[Yosarian2]

That's WIFOM. I don't think you're scum but I haven't ruled it out.

No, it's not. If, as scum, I could have won by doing X, and I did not do X, then that pretty much proves I'm not scum.

WIFOM would be if you're suggesting that I delibratly chose not to win as scum when I could have just in order to make people think that I was town, and that would be incredibly stupid.

Do you disagree that, if I was scum, I could have easily and safely lynched a townie yesterday and won last night?

[Yosarian2]

I think I should point out (because I haven't mentioned it) Yos couldn't have predicted that the last to votes on MR could be there. Especially the last one.

Sure I could have. If I had gone hard after Gorrad and backed that wagon, I have no doubt Gorrad would have been lynched yesterday.

Other people who expressed suspicion on Gorrad:

Post 279 - Yos2: I agree with Yosarian2 about Gorrad.
Post 285 - Gorrad: Why do you find him suspect? I haven't seen you express any reasoning for it, and with the fact that Yos was supicious of you first, this seems like pure OMGUS to me. I also don't think it's a bad idea to keep him from killing if we mislynch.
...
I'm going to

FoS: Gorrad and Porochaz

I feel them as scum right now. I really don't like Post 285 where he expresses suspicion of Yos2 with no reasoning and says that a self-vig is a good idea.
Porochaz has done nothing, which is probably the best scum play right now.

In conclusion: Gorrad is scummiest in my mind and quite frankly my preferred lynch. Deadline appears to be Saturday. Unless some stuff changes I'll probably prefer to be voting Gorrad. If I'm very lucky I'll get the time to do a brief reread on some players before deadline, too.

Porochaz was voting Gorrad, and remember he has 2 votes.

Me+Plum+Porochaz+hascow=5 votes. Plus, if I was scum with master ruck as you are suggesting, then one would assume he would also have been willing to hammer Gorrad in order to win the game for the scum. The only other person who didn't express suspicion on Gorrad was Malyss, your predecessor, and that was probably just because she wasn't around at the time.

Do you really think that it would have been that hard for me to lynch Gorrad in that situation?

[Yosarian2]

Gorrad: I'm a little confused; no matter what your alignment is, why would you let me vig kill you when you can prevent me from doing so?

[Yosarian2]

If Porochaz isn't scum, then because of my night action I'm going to be the immediate #2 suspect. If we lynch Porochaz, he's town, and I block a nightkill on me, the scum NK either Plum or Hasdgfas, I'm the #1 lynch candidate going into a day with four people, I'm lynched, scum NK you, they win. If I let it through, we go into day with three people, and because I'm dead y'all won't mislynch me.

Gorrad: Interesting. Ok, let me make this a little more clear. If you actually did take the jailkeeper role like you're claiming, Gorrad, and you are pro-town, and lynching porochaz dosn't end the game, you should feel free to jailkeep me.

If you don't block me, and you're town, town gets one vig shot, I die tonight (since I'm confirmed innocent), and then town gets a lynch. If you jailkeep me, scum can't kill me tonight; like you said, we go into tommorow with 4 people, we get a lynch, and then after that I get one more vig kill. Either way, we get one lynch and one vig kill, and this way, we can confirm if you actually took the jailkeeper role or if you were lying and waiting to take Porochaz's double vote instead.

[Yosarian2]

Yos: Gorrad isn't MR.

MR?

[Yosarian2]

Yos: Gorrad isn't MR.

MR?

[Yosarian2]

Ah, ok, I misunderstood what you were saying.

Nonetheless, if I could have easily won by wagoning Gorrad, why would I instead start a wagon on my scum buddy? Do you still doubt I could have easily gotten Gorrad lynched yesterday if that had been my goal?

[Yosarian2]

Plum: So, why did you unvote porochaz then? I'm a little confused by that...

[Yosarian2]

Hmm.

Well, my trap didn't work. Either Gorrad is scum, or scum were smart enough to know to not kill last night, or scum tried to kill me.

ANyway, I did try to kill Gorrad, so he was telling the truth about his role. Of course, he could very well be scum anyway; in fact, if he was scum, it would explain the lack of a kill, since he couldn't roleblock me and kill at the same time.

[Yosarian2]

Hmm. Right now, we get 2 lynches left.

Gorrad is still probably the #1 suspect, but we can increase that to 2 lynches and a vig kill if we lynch someone who's not Gorrad today, do another "I target Gorrad, Gorrad roleblocks me" night, forcing scum to either kill someone else, which should let us find the scum, or else no-kill, in which case we can lynch Gorrad tommorow and I can still kill tommorow night.

[Yosarian2]

Agreed, we need to hear more from fhw and plum, and we need to do so ASAP.

[Yosarian2]

Agreed, we need to hear more from fhw and plum, and we need to do so ASAP.

Can we get a mod prod on fhw and plum, please?

Especaly since there is a very high chance we may lynch one today and/or I may end up vigging one tommorow...

[Yosarian2]

Empking: Wrong game?

Anyway, you should comment on this game ASAP; plum just suggested a plan that involves lynching you today, empking, and I'm halfway inclined to agree with it.

[Yosarian2]

Empking: Wrong game?

Anyway, you should comment on this game ASAP; plum just suggested a plan that involves lynching you today, empking, and I'm halfway inclined to agree with it.

No.

Its a stupid plan as it relies on you being town and scum deciding he wants to give us a chance to win by no killing rather than killing.

Vote: Plum

"Relies on me being town"? That's your problem with it?

And scum obviously knows why not to kill; I mean, that's why you didn't kill last night, right?

[Yosarian2]

Empking: Wrong game?

Anyway, you should comment on this game ASAP; plum just suggested a plan that involves lynching you today, empking, and I'm halfway inclined to agree with it.

No.

Its a stupid plan as it relies on you being town and scum deciding he wants to give us a chance to win by no killing rather than killing.

Vote: Plum

"Relies on me being town"? That's your problem with it?

Yeah, I gave two reasons but I didn't actually mean the second one.

Any plan that dosn't involve lynching me inherently relies on me being town. Are you suggesting I should be lynched today, Empking?

[Yosarian2]

vote:empking

I think this plan is the way to go.

[Yosarian2]

vote:empking

I think this plan is the way to go.

That's because if Plum isn't scum you'll win.

Unfortunately for town, one of you are scum.

Yos: Why do the scum no kill?

Well, either the scum no killed last night, or else Gorrad is scum and didn't kill last night because he couldn't, because he had to roleblock me in order to win.

So, why do you think the scum wouldn't kill last night?

[Yosarian2]

Yos: Why do scum no kill in the plan?

On the off chance the scum hasn't figured it out yet, I'd rather not say.

[Yosarian2]

Vote: Empking

I still think Gorrad is more likely to be scum, but we have room to hedge our bets and we might as well do so. Yos, you're targeting Gorrad tonight, yeah?

Yes.

Empking: Because you could be scum. I'm not really sure, you've generally havn't said much, but it's possible. From my point of view, there are 4 of you who could be scum, and using this plan, we lynch or vig 3 of you; those odds sound really good to me.

[Yosarian2]

So, has, why are you lurking so hardcore here?

[Yosarian2]

I don't even know what's going on right now because I feel like we're not playing mafia.

Basically true, we're really not; at this point, we're mostly trying to take advantage of the setup and the roles to reduce the chances of a town loss to as close to zero as possible, we're not doing much actual scumhunting at this point.

[Yosarian2]

Vote: Empking

I still think Gorrad is more likely to be scum, but we have room to hedge our bets and we might as well do so. Yos, you're targeting Gorrad tonight, yeah?

Yes.

Empking: Because you could be scum. I'm not really sure, you've generally havn't said much, but it's possible. From my point of view, there are 4 of you who could be scum, and using this plan, we lynch or vig 3 of you; those odds sound really good to me.

Apart from if you or your buddy is scum which is very likely.

You know, the fact that you keep insinuating I'm scum in a situation where I'm basically confirmed town is part of what makes me suspect you here, empking. Scum wouldn't want me to be confirmed town here, now would they...

And how is "me being scum" now "very likely", exactally?

[Yosarian2]

All right, Bad Horse. It's curtains for you. Lacy, gently wafting curtains.

[Yosarian2]

Good game, everyone.

Yeah; I've known Gorrad was probably the scum for a while now, basically ever since he didn't take that info role; just wanted to be safe, and abuse the known role combinations to their potential.

Empking: To answer your question from before the end of the game; the idea was that, if I was going to try and kill Gorrad, he would roleblock me (or die, as he did). So, he clearly wouldn't be able to kill. Also, if I was being jailkept, no one would If the scum was either plum or hascow, then if they killed, they would have had to either kill Gorrad (no loss there; we were going to lynch him anyway) or one would have had to kill the other. Say hascow was the scum; if he killed plum, then we would know Gorrad was town (since gorrad can't kill while roleblocking me), and so we would have lynched hascow for an easy town win. This way it was basically an almost certain town win no matter who was scum.