Mini 697: Prisoner's Dilemma Mafia {Game Over!}

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Bad news, guys, I'm in the game.

I've skimmed/read most of it, but I'll be up to speed entirely soon.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Dear Baby Jesus, I lost a post. The relevant points.

Scumhunting:

-CarnCarn's 41 is directly contradicted by his 14 and 19. His 20 is a transitional that may explain this, but nowhere prior to Day 2 does he mention special contact with MM, despite claiming so in his 41.
-SlySly's fixed "randomvote" rubs me entirely the wrong way. I don't buy the "joke" explanation.
-SlySly's attempts to shift suspicion to Spring are smelliferous.
-This is how ABR plays. Just deal with it.

Gaming the System

-We should send two entirely different people to prison today and see what happens. If another one of them dies, we send the two remaining people to prison. If both of them live, we attempt to continue on with The Plan
-I see no reason to treat this as if we were playing a real mafia game and lynching scummy people. We need to figure out how the hell we intend to kill scum before we can play with a goal in mind. We don't know that sending scum leads to dead scum yet, and until we do we're groping in the dark, and I see The Plan as our best bet going forward.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

This has been addressed before. If you're going to decide to play this game like ABR, at least actually read things before you pretend not to. No offense to ABR, of course. He does what he does.

[Special Rules

(add “unless specified otherwise” to end of each rule):

1. Each day lasts maximum 3 weeks.
2. Each player has two votes to vote on two different players to be sent to prison. Both votes cannot be used on same player. Players should use the tags Send: MM and Unsend: MM. I will reluctantly accept bolded votes and unvotes.
3. At end of each day, whichever two players has the most votes gets sent to prison for interrogation during the night. If a majority of votes is reached for two players before deadline, the day ends early. Tiebreaker is whoever reached a certain number of votes first.
4. While in prison, the two players will be asked the question: “Is the other player mafia?” The results are shown above.
5. While imprisoned, those players cannot target others and cannot be targeted by others.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Bad news, guys, I'm in the game.

I've skimmed/read most of it, but I'll be up to speed entirely soon.

wow I remember you. Its been a WHILE.

I allowed myself to be imprisoned and crucified by some Romans, but it turns out that in the modern era of paperwork and bureaucracy, a proper resurrection takes 3-6 months to process.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

For all the BS cases that Sly tried to put together, he only gave you a cursory look, as if to hedge his bets.
Like I said, I think scum get some benefit from sending in 1 and ONLY 1 member into prison, so the fact that you are voting Sly and me is not that surprising.
I'm much more convinced that he is scum than that you are scum, but I'm still thinking that sending you back is necessary to find out whether last night was a one-time thing or you may actually be scum.

To TCS and icemanE: Why do you think this game is any different from normal mafia, where we try to hunt for scum? Is your view based on the interrogation chart on page 1? If it is, please remember the huge "unless otherwise stated" caveat. Also:

Has anyone else asked the mod about how sending two scum to jail, given that they know each other's identities, is seemingly bad for town?
If not, don't do it ITT, do it via PM. I've already told you how he answered me pregame, but I'd like to know what responses others get.

This is an idea.

When I consider this, it makes a lot of sense. If we send two townies, they can play their prisoner's dilemma game. If we send two mafia, they get caught (or they play prisoner's dilemma to some other effect, perhaps?). And then if we send a townie and a mafia member, the townie dies. Since there were no other mafia kills last night, we might suspect mafia lacks a normal nightkill. This is one possibility.

However, it's entirely possible that we have only the prison to work with, and the kill from last night was just some sort of mafia superkill (or even the result of a third party superkill), and this speculating is useless.

I do

agree

with you that sending two scum is probably beneficial. So scumhunting is useful. But I want to see at least one or two more nights of evidence in order to see if we can't decipher the mechanics of the game a little more.

If case one were proven to be true, then we could probably assume orangepenguin is scum. In all other instances last night gave us little to no information, especially as rushed as Day One was. My plan as laid out in my second post in this thread is an attempt to gain more information on the setup. We send two people who are not orangepenguin. If one of them dies, on the third night we send both orangepenguin and the remaining individual. Or, we could stop then and reassess based on the gameplay of others.

The general idea is to attempt to see if last night was a fluke, or the typical result of a scum-town pairing in prison. I would say that the two people we send to the slammer tonight should be one person we think has a good chance of being scum, and another person who seems wholly innocent, but might still be hoodwinking us. That way, if we luck out and hit two scum, we see what happens; if we get the same result as Night One, we can be more positive that orangepenguin and one of our sendees are scum together; if both survive, we can see what happens.

As I write I'm becoming increasingly certain that we have the two most probable possibilities here. A scum-town combination lets scum "sneak" a person in to kill the townie, or scum had a one-shot "superkill" that they decided was most beneficial to use on day one in order to confound us. Any other ideas, I'd like to hear and consider of course.

In conclusion, I'd suggest a combination of SlySly and Spring. I believe SlySly to be scum, and Spring has strong town leanings in my view because of his attempt to game the system, but he might still have been scum trying to get us to waste time (though unlikely, in my opinion).

Of course, if we have any townies who would like to volunteer to be sent with SlySly, we could do it that way.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Well... it's good that a mafia goon died, but I fail to see how that result helped us.

Ai ya. I will think and post more in the future.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Okay, so, assuming that there is a vigilante, they claim now? Or wait off? I, for one, in this setup, would give the benefit of the doubt to any claimed pro-town vig.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

My immediate reaction is to think that mafia has a nightkill, a one-shot "superkill" used night one in lieu of their normal nightkill, and there is a vig who shot ABR. We also know that simply sending a town and a mafia to jail does not result in a N1 scenario, so OP is not necessarily mafia.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

...or, someone did have an unblockable nk, and used it indiscriminately night one to confuse us.

Atm, I'm with the shooting op plan, however.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Manipulating other people's answers doesn't soundd like a town power to me at all.
Scum, yes, but I can't see why a town player would have that.

I agree with you on this point, and yet I find myself trusting your claim less and less.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

KoC has a provable claim.

I know. So there's no reason to send him tonight. I just have a bad feeling about all of this.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

LAWL.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I will definitely consider running a larger theme game with a similar mechanic in the future.

Pre-in if you do.

Pre-seconded.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

In fact, this should be a regular on the normal setup list.