Mini 702--Serum & Steel(The rust has settled/Game Over)

[Illumina]

/confirm

[Illumina]

Sorry for not posting, school has been really busy lately. I've read the entire thread, and I think the random choice is the way to go, statistically (admittedly, it's easy to say that seeing as I'm second to receive the serum...). However, there's obviously going to come a point where an information based meritocracy (as SpyreX said) is going to a better play. My question is, how are we going to decide when that is? Only when we have concrete evidence, or by consensus? We ought to decide this today, rather than it becoming an problem later.

On another note, I'm not inclined to trust Timeater just because he's metal and claimed early. Not sure whether he's town or not, but giving him the serum would not have been in our best interests.

Oh, and a question for clarification: does the day only end when someone is lynched? Do we get to serum, mycosynth and lynch all in one day, or do we have to choose?

[Illumina]

I think switching to a meritocracy plan as soon as it proves advantageous is good play, and tomorrow should hopefully be the time to switch over.

As for today, I think a pure random plan would be best. I'm with CF, any tweaks made to this just allows the scum to try and game the system, defeating the purpose. (I recognize my bias in the random plan, obviously, but I still think it makes sense.)

[Illumina]

Quick question before I run off to do more stuff: Seraphim, if the serum-ee decides when and if to reveal his actions, how can we have a policy of asking?

[red]

Serum: Tuberkulos

[/red]

[red]Mycosynth: Wall-E [/red]

[Illumina]

Wow, tag failure.

Serum: Tuberkulos

Mycosynth: Wall-E

[Illumina]

Obviously, if we need to know what happened with the serum, we'll pressure the recipient into telling us, and otherwise, we won't! The first word in the first sentence in this post is me calling you, Illumina, clueless, but since I don't think you're actually this clueless, I think you're lurk/fluff posting.

Easy, Wall-E. What you say obviously makes sense, that's why I was asking Sera about it: it seemed like he was advocating for the serum-ee making that call, which seemed problematic to me. I don't think it's fluff posting to ask for clarification, it was a legitimate question. (I agree with you, it just didn't jive with what Sera was saying at first)

It's helpful of you to fuel our triangle of bandwagons a bit, but all you've done is go along with the majority on the two least important wagons in the game.

I think the random allocation of serum makes sense for today. Are you suggesting that I should have created a "unique snowflake" plan of my own? Or that the random plan is a poor one?

I'd still like to understand why Wall-E for the 'synth.

He's claimed flesh - if you think he's scum he should be the lynch. If you think he's town, he should be free.

True, but mycosynthing him allows us a safe way to test his flesh claim. It doesn't determine much, but it's better than nothing. I tend to believe Timeater's metal claim: doesn't seem likely to me that scum would outright claim metal and ask for the serum, since suspicion and mycosynth would soon follow. I recognize the wifom inherent in this argument, but it strikes me as too brash for scum. He seems more likely town to me, at least right now.

[Illumina]

Good point about Timeater's claim, ortolan. I missed that.

Regarding using the mycosynth on Wall-E: I don't have a good read one way or the other about his towniness, but I found it interesting that he was initially neutral about getting myco'd, then started to get agitated about it when multiple people started to get more realistic about doing it. Clearly if he's town, he's telling the truth about being flesh. If he's fleshie scum, it wouldn't make any sense to get defensive the way he did. Mycoing him essentially allows us to determine whether he's metal scum without any penalty (and de-metaling him in such a case). Solid source of info with no penalty = a good play, I think.

Seraphim: could you respond to the questions about your Porkens vote? In particular, why the non-committal language?

[Illumina]

Interesting.

I think either we stall a bit until we know a replacement can be found for Tuberkulos, or serum someone else on a random basis.

Since you turned out to not be lying then, I'm much more comfortable trusting you now. (So don't be scum.)

If this isn't wifom, I don't know what is.

I'll post tomorrow when I have more time, now I should sleep.

[Illumina]

This thread jumped 4 pages since wednesday, and thursday I was too busy to catch up. Sorry for the inactivity...

I'm going to do a more thorough re-read of the last few pages, but my initial impression is that SpyreX is more likely scum than not, and in either case lynching him will provide useful information. He's been on my possible scum list, and I think his one-for-one gambit is him trying to appear highly pro-town which may have backfired.

Timeater still appears pro-town to me, even if his initial claim wasn't the wisest move.

More after I return from class.

[Illumina]

Okay. Having re-read, my impressions didn't change any. I think Timeater pretty much called it in 518, then SpyreX's post 519 went right along with that strategy, trying to look as protown as possible. 519 sounds more like scum trying to sound town than the other way around, and many of his posts after that still have the same feel to me.

Also, someone (Despite my efforts, I can't find/remember who...) brought up a good point: unless we give the serum to a metal player, what's preventing scum from night-killing any townie we give the serum to? This makes me hesitate to myco Timeater, since my read on him is protown.

Vote: SpyreX

[Illumina]

I repeat: how are we ever supposed to use the serum without the scum night-killing anyone we give it to? In order to use the serum at all, we're going to have to give it to metal players. Given this, mycoing Timeater now isn't a good play.

[Illumina]

I'm swamped with work from all sides, but I'm here.

Some observations:

I think Timeater had a point despite the repetitive post: it doesn't make sense to vote to myco him without also wanting to lynch him. (I tend to think he's town myself) Those who myco'd him yesterday, what's your response to this?

Also, Timeater is correct: everyone begins vanilla until the serum is doled out. Therefore, how can Seraphim have this serum-giving ability...?

I think in a game where you're free to post your role PM, claims should be taken with a grain of salt. Ortolan did claim the protagonist, though, so that's probably meaningful if nobody else counterclaims. But, Ort, why did you claim?

[Illumina]

All roles start off as vanilla until they are serumed. There may or may not be exceptions.

Based on this and ortolan's observation, I think we can safely assume that not all roles begin vanilla. (

Mod: is this correct?

)

I'm still curious why some people wanted to myco timeater but not lynch him; it doesn't make sense to me from a pro-town angle.

(I'll continue to be busy, but I will check this game and post at least every two days. Any more than that and it becomes procrastination on my part =P)

[Illumina]

Porkens: I've re-read today, and I still don't understand your argument on why TE and MSSK are probably of different alignments. I'm probably missing something, and it's preventing me from making that logical connection.

[Illumina]

CF: I'd consider Porkens first, then maybe you (if you wanted it, which you've said you don't).

And I agree with Vi and CF on Tony, 798 seems like a good lead. For Gremwell's logic to really make sense there (in 301), it would have to be good play for scum to kill whoever was myco'd each time. I'm not sure that's the case, so it reads like there's an ulterior motive.

Vote: Gremwell

Mycosynth: Tony Montana

[Illumina]

Actually, in light of Ort's claim I'd feel comfortable giving the serum to him. I think slow-vigging MSSK is a solid play, though, and would probably be the preferable option. It's a useful middle-road for people who aren't sure about MSSK, and it's the option with the most flexibility.

Secondly as I have come under quite a bit of suspicion prior to that this game, if the scum decided to nightkill me purely because I had the serum, it wouldn't be a great loss for the town- and would at least mean I was cleared.

I think MSSK being cleared one way or the other is a better scenario.

[Illumina]

Although it may just be MSSK, it's hard not to find his recent behavior suspicious. I'll vote for him if he doesn't post his entire role PM shortly.

Today's a travel day for me, so expect more tomorrow.

[Illumina]

To restate, I think serum-vigging MSSK or seruming ortolan (given his very solid claim and apparent ability) are both solid plays. In the interest of consensus at deadline, I'm happy to

Unserum

and

Serum: ortolan

. It's probably a better play then leaving further responsibility in MSSK's hands.

I think Tony Montana could be scum based on his wanting to myco TE (who I read as more likely town than not), wanting to serum himself, and wanting to myco CF Riot (who I'm not sure about, but I think he's more likely town than not and there are better candidates than him at this point).

Generally, though, I think we should be careful about assuming CF Riot is protown. Ort's point that we could be letting him coast to victory as scum bears considering. Therefore, I can see the logic in wanting to give him the serum, but I'm not sure that's the best play for today.

I will also

Unvote Vote: MafiaSSK

. I don't have a great read on him, but consistently dodging his role reveal like that is really suspicious, and a lame move if he does flip town.

[Illumina]

I'm willing to bet he won't post his role PM.

[Illumina]

Are we sure this massclaim helped town more than scum? Now they have their choice of who to target... I'm not sure revealing my role just now is the best play.

[Illumina]

Let's just say my role is more vulnerable than I thought, due to recent events. I really think it would hurt the town to reveal my role now.

[Illumina]

The less scum know, the better. I recall you making the same argument this game, CF.

I personally think TM is much more protown than Geraintm, so I'd like to see Geraintm claim first.

[Illumina]

You are a Nim Lasher, Town-aligned Lasher. You hail from the Mephidross swamp, which has been increasingly threatened by the overlord Memnarch. Perhaps this elf woman you've heard rumors about would make a suitable ally for overthrowing Memnarch.
Abilities: You are metal. You cannot be killed in any way.
Win Condition: You win when you are the last faction remaining.

[Illumina]

I agree,

FoS: Vi

for putting TM so close to hammer.

CF: Wait, so I'm scum just because my card is black? Also, Nim Lashers are metal creatures, according to wikipedia (and no, I didn't edit the page): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sp ... hering#Nim. Please don't try to misconstrue my role with selective quoting. Or is it advantageous for you to get rid of a metal town at this juncture?

[Illumina]

About a page was generated as I was posting, and it's currently 2am. I'll address new stuff tomorrow. However, I'm not really for a Vi lynch. Two things are apparent to me right now:

1) It's logical that our mod would have provided safeclaims against a massclaim. Therefore, you have to assume that some players are lying about their claim. If you're going to fakeclaim steel, an artifact golem (geraintm's claim) is a clear and obvious choice. It's also generic when you might expect the flavor to fit into the five moons/colors/regions of Mirrodin theme we have going. However, claiming something that specific is risky.

2) It doesn't make sense for metal scum to claim metal: it's just an invitation to mycosynth. Metal scum would obviously claim flesh, so we waste time lynching him, and flesh scum is more likely to claim metal so we waste time mycosynthing him. Here we are getting distracted by Vi, when TM or geraintm could well be mafia or the SK (lurking/scummy consistently, stalling on claim, generic claim, etc.).

Also, Vi is not my scumbuddy, if he were I would have hammered TM and not been critical of him bringing TM in hammer range...

More tomorrow, don't lynch anybody in the meantime.

[Illumina]

Sorry it took me so long to comment.

I think Vi is unlikely to be an SK (as he points out, a vig who needs the serum to kill seems really underpowered, and therefore unlikely). Even as scum, it seems slightly overpowered, although it's still a possibility.

I'm still suspicious of TM and Geraintm due to their delayed claims, and I find them the most suspicious currently. I'd like to know who they think is suspicious and why.

Also, it seems relatively unlikely that Glissa would be a scum safeclaim, as the protagonist. For that reason, I tend to believe ort's claim.

Btw, we've already reached a synth and serum majority, so now the last choice is who to lynch.

Porkens: are we sure the mod didn't make any typos?

[Illumina]

Sorry it took me so long to comment.

I think Vi is unlikely to be an SK (as he points out, a vig who needs the serum to kill seems really underpowered, and therefore unlikely). Even as scum, it seems slightly overpowered, although it's still a possibility.

I'm still suspicious of TM and Geraintm due to their delayed claims, and I find them the most suspicious currently. I'd like to know who they think is suspicious and why.

Also, it seems relatively unlikely that Glissa would be a scum safeclaim, as the protagonist. For that reason, I tend to believe ort's claim.

Btw, we've already reached a synth and serum majority, so now the last choice is who to lynch.

Porkens: are we sure the mod didn't make any typos?

[Illumina]

Sorry for the doublepost, got an error the first time and didn't think it went through.

[Illumina]

I am metal, lynching me was a bad call. Also, ending the day without letting me respond was a very bad call. I'm looking at you, Vi.

However, I've asked for clarification because earlier in the game, players were locked in once they received a majority on serum or synth votes. Since I definitely received a majority of synth votes earlier, I thought I was locked in and thus couldn't be lynched. I guess we'll find out.

[Illumina]

No, if a lynch majority happens first then that's all that happens.

Also, geraintm was certainly the one who hammered, but Vi's two votes extended the opportunity, and probably wasn't the most prudent play.

[Illumina]

Wait... How can I be both myco'd and lynched? Does this mean we aren't in twilight now?

[Illumina]

Oh, nevermind: we haven't reached a majority on lynching, yet.

Everyone please unvote

(for the lynch), so we can do this right and not have someone hammer.

[Illumina]

...

Please unvote so Vi isn't in hammer range!

[Illumina]

Because I don't believe you're an optimal lynch. It's really unlikely you're mafia (you'd be way too overpowered, it just isn't realistic), and though you could be an SK, I haven't seen any real reason to suspect you as the SK compared to anyone else.

Besides which: though killing an SK would be fine, we're better off going after mafia anyway. And as stated, you don't really fit the bill there. I'm puzzled as to why everyone is voting you and ignoring the people who delayed their claims...

[Illumina]

Ort: before you lynch Vi, you should be aware that I'm definitely getting synthed today. Thus, geraintm can't be synthd until tomorrow.

However, I think it's very possible geraintm is flesh. If he's flesh scum, there's absolutely no reason not to claim metal so we waste time mycoing him first. It's an obvious move. By the same logic, it's obviously advantageous in every way for metal scum to claim flesh, so we waste time lynching him first. If we lynch geraintm today, we can call his bluff and potentially off a scum.

[Illumina]

Wow.

Geraintm has lurked, delayed his claim as long as he could, claimed a weird mycosynth metal golem (ignoring that those two things destroy each other...), and was caught in the act of hammering! What more do we need to see that he's the obvious play for today?

Also, please consider this. If each scum is claiming the opposite of what they really are (metal/flesh), which is an excellent scum play, we're basically screwed (ie, forced into a mylo situation) unless we call the bluff of one scum today. We already know Vi is not metal! He is not the right play right now.

Vote: geraintm

Please respond to this before hammering, we can't afford this type of error.

[Illumina]

I am not defending him; rather, geraintm is an obvious choice that everyone else is ignoring. It's not that Vi isn't a good choice, but lynching him today is a potentially dangerous move.

Yes, it's quite reasonable that the mafia were given custom claims, especially in a game where we're allowed to quote our role PMs. It follows that scum claiming their opposite is a great strategy, given this (and considering how many days we likely have left), and ignoring that will cause the town to lose. This is why I'm pressing for geraintm.

I can't explain the capital T in my role PM, I quoted it just as I received it. Unless I'm mistaken, wasn't there also a typo in TM's claim?

Do you agree that geraintm's claim (mycosynth metal golem) is highly suspicious? I think that's worth investigating before we end the day.

[Illumina]

So, you don't think it's remotely possible the mod gave them claims even though we're allowed to quote our role PM directly? I find that hard to believe.

[Illumina]

This is wrong if you are scum, because we're synthing you today. If it's Ger/TM and TM is really steel, then yes we're probably screwed. We'll cross that bridge when we get there though.

I don't follow. What does synthing me today have to do with that? Whether I'm synthed or not, steel or not, that's an obvious winning play for scum. By my own logic, I'd be flesh claiming steel if I were scum right now and town would be wasting its precious time. That's my point. Why do you think people wanted to lynch me earlier but couldn't? Applying that same logic to geraintm makes sense.

Since I'm town, though, I know we're finished if we don't lynch scum today or tomorrow. "Crossing that bridge when we get to it" will end in town failure if you lynch a townie or lynch the metal scum tomorrow! Vi could be our scum lynch, but geraintm seems way more likely. At least Vi's ability can be demonstrated -- what ability does geraintm have?

To everyone who wanted to lynch me earlier: is geraintm not scummier than I am? His claim seems way bogus to me.

[Illumina]

Yes, but my impression was that people wanted to lynch me because they didn't believe my metal claim. I think geraintm's claim is more suspicious than mine, and no one seems as interested in his, which seems weird to me.

I have geraintm and Tony Montana down as a likely scum team. You and CF Riot are possibilities, but not as likely imo. And as I've said previously, we know you're not metal. We should be calling the scum's bluff today (ie, someone scummy who we don't know is metal or not) so we don't trap ourselves later.

[Illumina]

Porkens

: you've been highly suspicious of TM and geraintm, but suddenly became gung-ho about lynching Vi. You've said you're in favor of lynching mafia rather than an SK, but yet you continue to go after Vi, even though you A) said you were certain that Ort/Vi was an SK and B) were sure TM, myself and geraintm were scummy looking.

Why the sudden shift? You also said:

If Vi flips town; I think we have lost this one, but I don't see a good alternative. You are more likely town than Vi, so I'm putting all my eggs in one basket.

You certainly seemed to have three good alternatives earlier (me, TM and geraintm). I am advocating

against

putting all our eggs in one basket as town -- Vi is not a bad play, but geraintm would be a much smarter choice today because of the reasons I've outlined.

Also: if you wanted to lynch me and myco geraintm, why not the other way around? If you think geraintm is scum, you've got to realize that he'd claim the opposite of what he really is. Therefore lynching him is a solid play.

CF Riot

:

I think Geraintm just hammered his buddy to save himself from being synthed.

So why are you voting Vi instead of geraintm? I think geraintm falseclaimed metal, because there's no reason for him not to. We seem to be on the same page in wanting to avoid a lylo/mylo situation, why do you think Vi is the best way to avoid that now? I would also be happy with a TM lynch to test his claim, as I think TM and geraintm are probably our scum.

Can we at least agree with CF that we're in lylo if we lynch a townie today? Let's make the best long-term play by testing either TM or geraintm's claim.

[Illumina]

Btw, please don't hammer Vi before we at least hear from geraintm. I'm interested in what he says before the day ends.

[Illumina]

In this setup a 3rd party would need to be quite powerful in order to have a hope of winning.

An SK would need to convince the town to give them the serum.

These two things seem very contradictory to me, especially if you need to continue receiving the serum if you receive it more than once.

Synthing gerintm while testing Illumina would have been a better play, as I find Illuminas claim way less convincing.

Why am I not surprised you think so? Tell me how exactly mycosynthing a golem

already made of mycosynth

is supposed to work? Then try to tell me his claim is more convincing than mine.

[Illumina]

I appreciate that you're in a different timezone, but it seemed like there were multiple days between the massclaim beginning and you posting, so I took that to indicate stalling for time, so that others would claim first. If you were legitimately out for that long, then I suppose it doesn't indicate anything. But we don't know for sure either way, so that's a bit of wifom.

And your role is an artifact, sure, but a really nonsensical one (note that Gremwell's role didn't appear to be an artifact, either). While Nim are creatures naturally imbued with metal (due to the Mephidross swamp, which has toxic necrogen that causes metal buildup in the body [see Wikipedia]), yours is a metal golem made with a substance specifically designed to destroy metal. It'd be like an ice golem with a heart of fire. Thus, you can't (and didn't) really answer my question with a straight face: how

are

you supposed to myco a metal golem made of mycosynth?

[Illumina]

I might favor Vi if it weren't for the possibility of insta-loss tonight, and the fact that I suspect a TM/Ger scum team that could skate by without giving us enough time to myco and lynch them both. Testing TM seems to be just as useful as testing Ger, so I could go for TM today without qualms (as previously stated).

Your argument that an SK Vi would favor killing scum over town tonight also makes a lot of sense.

[Illumina]

I don't think he is telling the truth, but that's also why I think lynching geraintm makes for a safer play that's better than a strict no-lynch. (My theory is that if TM is scum, he'd fakeclaim metal to distract us)

[Illumina]

Porkens: That's quite the gambit. You'd have to be right that

1)

there is an SK,

2)

the SK is Vi, and

3)

I am also scum.

If there is no SK, then TM or geraintm would be optimal plays.

If there is an SK, you'd have to be correct that it's Vi

and

I'm scum, or town loses.

[Illumina]

Ok, I seriously doubt we'll move in a different direction at this point. Still not sure if this is the right play, but I will

Unvote: geraintm

and

Vote: Vi

.

[Illumina]

Sweet, my strategy panned out. Playing as a neutral is pretty fun.

To tell the truth, I'm still not sure how well my claim played out. And yeah, I was annoyed that Timeater got myco'd D1, so I had to take a stab in the dark with ort. Fortunately, I made a good educated guess with Gremwell, and then the real analysis started when I tried to spot the last metal player I needed. I figured that one of the mafia (Memnarch) would be metal, so ironically I was scumhunting with the rest of you towards the end. It was actually CF Riot's observation of geraintm and TM's collective reaction to mycosynthing that got me considering them as a scum team; about the middle of day 3 I figured they were probably scum, and one of them was the last metal I needed.

Problem was, I needed a way to ensure that neither geraintm or TM were mycosynthed, lest I lose my path to victory. After much deliberation, I decided that my best bet was to appear scummy enough to warrant mycosynthing myself, so that I could kill the right scum and win during the night. Hence my Nim Lasher claim: Nicol actually warned me that they weren't metal because they weren't artifacts, but I thought the information on them strongly suggested they were metal, so I went with it. The capital T thing was also my mistake, there. When we did the massclaim, I was basically acting scummy deliberately so I could get those myco votes. Also, I wasn't sure which one of the two was metal, so that's why I was defending Vi: advocating for a TM or geraintm lynch was the second part of my plan. It surprised me when everyone became fixated on Vi, and once Porkens posted his logic on possible outcomes, I realized that I'd have to bite the bullet and take a 50/50 chance that night. Fortunately for me, geraintm's metal claim was true, because I still think they could have won if they reversed their claims that way.

So that was my strategy. It was really amusing to see Porkens adamantly suspecting Vi of being the SK.

[Illumina]

Yeah, I won't complain about that, it did save my ass. I overdid the scummy vibes in my claim, I should have just stalled and claimed something generic. Although, Nim totally are metal: it builds up in their body to the extent that they become blind, according to wikipedia. In retrospect, though, I didn't take enough care to appear less scummy than geraintm or TM.

Why do I remember someone else being locked in earlier in the game? I thought that was the rule before I asked clarification just in case. Good thing I did, I guess...