2235: Gensokyo ~ END ~

[Kilgamayan]

Vote: Lady Lambadelta

so that when she turns out to be Mafia and wins the game I can point at this vote in postgame and say I knew it on Page 1

[Kilgamayan]

VOTE: Lady Lambadelta

Gamma copying my vote without acknowledging my airtight case is rude af, probably bussing, 2/3 mafia caught gg

[Kilgamayan]

If people need bonus proof I can attempt to vote someone for shits and giggles

I would appreciate seeing this just for full clarity.

[Kilgamayan]

No vote indeed, I see, I see. That's unfortunate for LLD.

UNVOTE: Lady Lambdadelta
VOTE: Gamma Emerald

Confusing avatar isn't so sweet. Obfuscation gets an ED1 yeet!

[Kilgamayan]

Good to know this thread has already peaked with 91. It's all downhill from here!

UNVOTE: Gamma Emerald
VOTE: Sanae

There's been far too much fluff RP nonsense in this thread. Would be willing to vote for Aaron as well, though I feel like Aaron is at least making slightly more of an effort to actually play the game (Note: Jester talk does not count as effort to play the game) despite the very low content.

I'm guessing Yukari's SDM-specific ire is based on SDM member behavior in past FakeGod Touhou UPicks, but I could be wrong.

[Kilgamayan]

Good to know this thread has already peaked with 91. It's all downhill from here!

UNVOTE: Gamma Emerald
VOTE: Sanae

There's been far too much fluff RP nonsense in this thread. Would be willing to vote for Aaron as well, though I feel like Aaron is at least making slightly more of an effort to actually play the game (Note: Jester talk does not count as effort to play the game) despite the very low content.

I'm guessing Yukari's SDM-specific ire is based on SDM member behavior in past FakeGod Touhou UPicks, but I could be wrong.

do you think the RP is AI?

I think the phrasing of that question is a bit of an oversimplification of the situation.

To me, the RP not only contributes nothing meaningful, it pulls the thread in the wrong direction. RVS is Silliness Central, sure, but RP does nothing to help us get out of that into serious times, and once some people have moved into serious times, continuing the RP serves to try to drag the thread back toward unhelpful silliness. Unhelpful silliness is bad for town and good for mafia, ergo my opinions and vote.

[Kilgamayan]

At a glance, I don't feel like 153 is a post that comes from someone feeling so much pressure that they panic their way into an exceedingly premature roleclaim three posts later.

I'll review that exchange more closely later when I have the time, though.

[Kilgamayan]

Looked the exchange over again, and still don't think Norpiece's claim looks like Mafia claiming under pressure. His demeanor and behavior seem to match his general demeanor and behavior in the thread overall.

@Kakeguri Addicts 295 (and others that have discussed my RP commentary): As much as anything at that point is ED1 STRONG, I thought (and still think) Sanae's RP specifically was/is a Mafia tactic. It's posting in a way that does not contribute

and

encourages other users to not contribute, and was done while other users were trying to contribute. RP itself isn't inherently bad (though an argument could be made that continuing it in the face of requests to stop that are made for accessibility reasons is a bit of a dick move). Actively not providing content and encouraging others to actively not provide content is Mafia-bad. This is why I made sure to point out that Aaron at least seemed like they were trying to play the game.

@Norpiece 320: How dare you forget me, I've had this Eiki avatar since I joined this web sight and you noticed it at least once in the Speezy. Also honestly I'm not terribly interested in posting more, no. I naturally have very little time to spend on Mafia, and there are already way too many posts for Day 1. I'm far better suited for Day 2 and beyond, once we have concrete stuff like wagons and flips. (222 is a whole-ass mood.)

---

Sanae still hasn't really done anything meaningful. The vote for Lukewarm isn't substantiated and then there's a couple of posts that I can only assume are subtweeting me for voting her.

Not liking Gamma Emerald either. The entire dance sequence with Aaron produced...271 with negativity regarding Titus that concludes with "she's a bit of a bore", which means who-knows-what, and 220 and 291 which appear to collectively amount to a shoulder shrug. Aaron's half of the dance looks better but I have to wonder why they did the whole dance thing at all if they were going to be satisfied with those responses.

[Kilgamayan]

@Aaron 377: Apologies, that was some unnecessarily hostile word choice on my part. I do think it at least rude to not accommodate an accessibility request, but I do not think any less of you as a person because of the RP or anything like that. (I suspect my job just makes me particularly sensitive to accessibility issues.)

That being said, I cannot agree with anything along the lines of "Sanae is probably town because Mafia Sanae would be more helpful". That feels like such a tremendous fundamental disconnect between the two of us.

Fake Edit @Yukari 394: It's still too much posting for Day 1 for me! D: I vastly prefer my Day 1s no longer than 72 hours so we can avoid clogging the thread with largely baseless speculation and arguing about who's bad at playing the wordswordswords game and just get right to far more meaningful information in Day 2 and beyond. I understand I am a tremendous outlier on this site in this regard but that doesn't make it any less eye-glaze-y and motivation-sappy for me.

[Kilgamayan]

@Sanae 401: I'm less concerned with "sorting" and more concerned with voting who I think is most likely to be Mafia. Like, my vote is not "hmm, I wonder how this person will react to being voted", it is "I think this person is likelier to be red than anyone else". I maintain that vote because you've given me no reason to change my mind.

@Titus 413: I think we should be yeeting Sanae, with Gamma Emerald also a good choice. See the bottom half of 376. Gamma's posting since 376 hasn't done anything to change my mind on this regard.

Looking over his ISO, I'd also be okay voting RegRider. His ISO is very reactive and not very proactive, and I think Town are more likely to be proactive while Mafia are more likely to be reactive. I hesitate a bit here, though, because I don't think Mafia Gamma gels very well with Mafia RegRider, and of the two I think Gamma is the better bet.

[Kilgamayan]

@RegRider 519: Mafia

want

to be proactive, yes. But being proactive is much harder as Mafia than it is as Town, and being reactive as Mafia is much easier than being proactive as Mafia.

Other concerns RE: Gamma aside, I don't think concern regarding a potential cost of using the Miracle Mallet to grant a wish is AI. (For what it's worth, if there

were

a cost of using it in this game, that cost would most likely be at the user's expense individually.)

[Kilgamayan]

@Sanae 546: Again, RP is not inherently Mafia behavior. The RP in question was "posting in a way that does not contribute and encourages other users to not contribute, and was done while other users were trying to contribute." That is what is Mafia-y. If you can RP

while

posting meaningful contributions, then there's no issue with the RP in and of itself.

@Lukewarm 551: I think you misunderstand. Any cost of a wish made on the Miracle Mallet is at the expense of the user of the Miracle Mallet. Shinmyoumaru is the one using the Miracle Mallet, so Shinmyoumaru is the one that would be paying any theroetical price, regardless of who's wish RegRider picked. (For all that this matters now, given (a) RegRider has stated there is no cost associated with wish granting in this setting, and (b) everything else that's happened since.)

---

I have to say I'm not at all a fan of Luke's Kop vote in 551, but I'm definitely more in his camp than Aaron's in the current debate. The Luke vote in 640 reads as trying to push a potentially-invalid-to-the-rest-of-us dichotomy (Luke vs. LLD) into the spotlight with a later justification that only looks pro-Town without actually being pro-Town (avoiding additional claims, as seen in 666). Obviously it is good to avoid more people claiming than is necessary, but that's not as important as maximizing the probability of voting a Mafia off the island.

[Kilgamayan]

Haven't had time to fully catch up but the elimination being a mad dash to a semi-lurker makes me feel very uncomfortable.

@LLD: I've debated wishing that you had a usable vote. Would that be a waste of time if it got granted? If you'd rather not answer for role reasons, that's fine, but I figured I'd ask before making a proper decision.

[Kilgamayan]

The second wish in 1006 was mine. I had a nagging worry that "Confirm Specific Person X Is Town In The Thread" might get denied by the GM so I figured I'd throw in something slightly weaker but still potentially useful in order to keep options open.

I'm really suspicious of how Cakez handled the Kakeguri situation. 873, which was posted while Kakeguri was being lightly discussed but had no votes, was pretty enthused for the idea that Kakeguri could be Mafia. The instant people start putting vote pressure in that direction, though (878, 879), he gets cold feet (885). Only after RegRider further forces the issue with his vote in 897 does Cakez finally cast his Kakeguri vote (898), probably with the realization that he can't possibly do anything else in that situation without tying himself even more tightly to Kakeguri.

I realize I can't beat the "tried to stall the Kakeguri train" drum as loudly as I'd like given Luke was even worse about it but has since been confirmed town, but this is still really suspect behavior.

[Kilgamayan]

Sure am glad I spent the time to write 1062.

Furthermore, the wording of the wish stated nothing about parity cops or about investigatives. I specifically asked for the mod to confirm if the two of us share an alignment. Based on the wording of the wish and the wording of the mod post, I would think that it was a mod lie if I had something like a godfather ability

I imagine it would not be terribly difficult to write a Mafia-aligned role along the lines of "you are considered Town-aligned for all alignment-checking purposes" specifically to get ahead of this kind of behavior.

[Kilgamayan]

It also seems like their scumread on Cakez was retroactively manufactured by looking through their ISO and framing their progression as scum indicative rather than coming to the solution naturally.

I'm not sure how you can say this given my mention of Luke's similar behavior in the final sentence of 1062, but I'll grant my playstyle/thought process seems to be notably different from others, so I'll go into more detail for clarity's sake for everyone.

When a Mafia member gets eliminated Day 1, the first things to look for are (a) people attempting to derail the train, and (b) people supporting the idea that the eliminated player was Mafia but finding reasons to not support the train. Anyone that exhibits these behaviors is highly likely to be Mafia-aligned themselves and trying to save their teammate from elimination. Luke fits (a) with the vote for flipped-town Aaron in 901 followed by the move to competing-train Norpiece in 906, Cakez fits (b) as described in 1062. I can try to elaborate beyond this if people have further concerns, though I'd request in advance that said people detail what their concerns are specifically because I feel like this is already really foundational stuff.

---

@Norpiece 1151: I try to be extra clear when presenting cases so as to minimize time lost to misunderstandings and other people doing research that I've already done. Like, I could have said something like "Cakez prob Mafia, train approach was garbo", but then that puts an onus of rereading the situation to understand my position on other people when I've already done the work.

@Gamma 1155: It's a combination of the utterly awful (in a Mafioso way) approach to the Kakeguri train, as described above, and the obsession with getting 100% concretely "confirmed" Town to the point of trying to make the pedantry argument in 1105. That was the post where I started thinking "methinks thou doth protest too much". I doubt I would push Luke as a serious elimination candidate today because I recognize the weight of the wish result and because time affords us some other ways of catching him if he is indeed Mafia, but I still would very much rather people not take the results of the wish and just shut their brains off regarding the possibility of Mafia Luke.

---

To acknowledge Cakez's 1163, I'll grant that there likely was/is not an explanation that would satisfy my concerns regarding how the Kakeguri train. In terms of "what can you do", though, if a Townie makes a very-likely-to-come-from-Mafia mistake, good day play is the best way to make up for it. In this particular case...I don't know why Cakez specifically is voting for me here? Like, okay, I think I can take a preeeeeetty good guess why Mafia Cakez is voting for me here, but if this is somehow another case of Town Cakez making a mistake, I don't know what the justification would be.

VOTE: SirCakez for everything that's been said in this post; the rest of his day play hasn't been nearly Townie enough to me to lean me toward the idea that his approach to the Kakeguri wagon was a genuine error.

Sanae's vote also looks for all the world like a casual Mafia slide onto a seemingly-easy train and it boggles the mind that no one that has posted since has commented on it. I'd like to hear from Norpiece in particular about why he had nothing to say about that vote given he was suspecting Sanae at the beginning of the day (to the point of voting Sanae in 1100).

[Kilgamayan]

Lukewarm is confirmed town

I disagree with this assertion. See 1147. The wish result has enough weight that I'm not pursuing Luke ahead of Cakez, though, and wouldn't pursue Luke ahead of Sanae or Norpiece. That and, like I said, time affords us some other ways of catching him if he is indeed Mafia.

people supporting the idea that the eliminated player was Mafia but finding reasons to not support the train.

This is less strong a tell than you think

It's not as strong as the first thing I mentioned, but I think it still has a decent amount of oomph to it. Particularly in this specific context, in the event one believes Luke is town; Kakeguri's role was a very easy Mafia solution to a Town Luke problem, which means Mafia would presumably want to put additional effort into staving off a Kakeguri elimination.

[Kilgamayan]

(Yes, I'm aware I said Luke was "confirmed town" in 1062. I've since rethought that statement and realized it's not true, as alluded to in 1147 and mentioned in 1176.)

[Kilgamayan]

@Sanae 1184: Has nothing from the Kakeguri train or the multiple flips we've seen since the end of Day 1 really stood out to you more than early-to-mid Day 1 verbal jousting?

@Norpiece 1192: See 1062 and the first section of 1176 for my stance. If you need further explanation than that I'll probably need to know exactly what issues you're having with those thoughts.

[Kilgamayan]

@RegRider: Can you answer Gamma's 1226? See 1221 for context.

@Sanae 1239: I mean that you have a lot more information to work with than you had in the middle of Day 1, including

four

flips. Are you really so sure of your Mid-Day 1 thoughts that none of the information you've received since Mid-Day 1 is stronger than that?

I've felt pretty good about both LLD and Yukari all game, but I have to admit that Luke's posting was getting better as time went on today, and StrangeMatter has been pretty decent so far as well (and 1234 sounds particularly like a Townie aggravation). Will definitely have to revisit how I feel about the three of them relative to each other if it turns out that the solution isn't as simple of "two of Cakez/Sanae/Norpiece".

[Kilgamayan]

if it turns out that the solution isn't as simple of "two of Cakez/Sanae/Norpiece".

Why am i being sussed at all?

Largely PoE, honestly. I'd bet the game on Gamma and RegRider being town, and I've felt good about LLD and Yukari being town for quite some time. That leaves Cakez, Sanae, and you, as well as The Luke Matter (haha see what I did there????), but I've felt a bit better about that slot as the day has gone on. Cakez and Sanae I've already gone over; with you, I haven't felt like your play has been as clearly town as LLD or Yukari, and your Sanae stuff at the beginning of the day just didn't really go anywhere in a way that made me wonder if you even really meant it.

[Kilgamayan]

In thinking about it I guess I could be swayed to consider RegRider if his answer to Gamma's 1226 question is really really bad (or just never comes at all). I don't feel like that's very likely, though.

[Kilgamayan]

In thinking about it I guess I could be swayed to consider RegRider if his answer to Gamma's 1226 question is really really bad (or just never comes at all). I don't feel like that's very likely, though.

1226 isn't a question directed at me and its not something I can really answer.

On the contrary, you're theoretically the only person that can answer it. To summarize, for clarity:

* Cakez said his wish was accepted in 1221.
* He said it was a "Loud lld/Luke parity cop" in 1225.
* Gamma asked in 1226 why it wasn't in your list in 1006.
* Cakez responsed in 1227 that he had no clue why it wasn't in your list.

Since Cakez doesn't know why his wish wasn't in your list in 1006, you're the only other person that can answer the question - why wasn't a wish for a Loud LLD/Luke Parity Cop in your list in 1006?

[Kilgamayan]

In thinking about it I guess I could be swayed to consider RegRider if his answer to Gamma's 1226 question is really really bad (or just never comes at all). I don't feel like that's very likely, though.

1226 isn't a question directed at me and its not something I can really answer.

On the contrary, you're theoretically the only person that can answer it. To summarize, for clarity:

* Cakez said his wish was accepted in 1221.
* He said it was a "Loud lld/Luke parity cop" in 1225.
* Gamma asked in 1226 why it wasn't in your list in 1006.
* Cakez responsed in 1227 that he had no clue why it wasn't in your list.

Since Cakez doesn't know why his wish wasn't in your list in 1006, you're the only other person that can answer the question - why wasn't a wish for a Loud LLD/Luke Parity Cop in your list in 1006?

Okay, then he lied. Either that or he was roleblocked and couldn't make a wish. Don't know lol. Either way I only got 4 wishes. Also why am I the only one who can answer that?

Only you could answer it because presumably no one received the entire collection of valid wishes other than you. I only know what I sent in, so I couldn't say whether or not Cakez sent in a valid wish or whether or not you received it. I assume the same is true of everyone else that sent a wish in.

@SirCakez: Are you 100% positive your wish was accepted?

[Kilgamayan]

Shoot, ah well. Sorry for vanishing, my usual window of being able to post was slammed shut last night by dealing with Covid exposure concerns. Wish I could have done y'all better.

Nothing that's happened in the last 36 or so real-time hours has made me think any less that it's two of Cakez/Sanae/Norpiece. Cakez and Sanae put exceedingly little effort into justifying voting for me, and Norpiece being the deadline hammer twice now has prevented him for having to take any really meaningful stances at any point this game.

[Kilgamayan]

:toot:

[Kilgamayan]

Scum PT: 48 hours for redactions

I don't think I have anything I want to redact, but Sanny may think differently.