Mini 2231: Radio Buzz | Game Over!

[Something_Smart]

I want to flip ss today
Tbh none of the mechanical meanderings have changed my mind

What part of my reasoning do you not agree with? Do you think it's likely scum can interfere with the shots?

[Something_Smart]

Sure, but it feels kinda weird that scum would be able to choose who gets the guns and then also interfere with it? Like RB is completely silly. Doc I guess is possible, but feels fairly unlikely to me-- and I think that a decent chance of gaining an extra execution is worth delaying killing whoever you want to kill to the night.

[Something_Smart]

If scum got to choose who to give the guns to, they probably dont have a way to interfere

Yes, that's what I'm thinking, and I think it's likely that they did? What other possibilities do you think are likely?

[Something_Smart]

like if you dont think its SS, you're going to have to look at this votelog and tell me which person on it makes sense as an Enchant scumpartner in a townSSworld

Skitter Thirty and Galron?

[Something_Smart]

so why haven't you been pushing either of them?

because I don't push people except under very rare circumstances?

[Something_Smart]

Skitter unvoted SS after DGB/Enchant voted for SS making SS at E-1, doesn't feel like a scum unvote, feels like town pumping the brakes because they don't want day to end unexpectedly.

Galron's 3rd vote on Enchant was what made Enchant tied with you in the beginning of the "race"

Him unvoting near the end is probably town!indicative because scum don't bus in prime position and then unvote.

Niether make sense

No offense, but this really feels like you're fitting the reasoning to the conclusion you want. I don't know about anyone else but I'm fairly sure I have done both of these things as scum, and you probably have too.

[Something_Smart]

if you want to say I'm wrong about skitter or I'm wrong about galron you should be specific about who I am wrong on and why they are actually scum

I think you might be wrong about skitter, because scum might do what she did.

I think you might be wrong about Galron, because scum might do what he did.

The burden of proof is on you, making the claim that contradicts the prior probabilities.

Not that I think it's likely we'll ever see eye-to-eye here. It's just weird that we've played together so many times and now is the game you decide to pretend that I play exactly the same as you.

[Something_Smart]

I believe that both of them have a chance to be scum. I don't believe either one is 100% scum. I'm not sure what isn't clear here?

[Something_Smart]

What was her stuff?

[Something_Smart]

Pooky, I think it's safe to assume that a team of me/ssbm is never going to win at this point. Can you please start giving thought to alternatives?

In particular, even if you scumread us both, wouldn't it make sense to kill her today? If she flips scum then I surely get shot or executed eventually, but it lets me shoot before dying.

[Something_Smart]

so posts like that are what i *would* call survivalistic

I don't think anyone is arguing that I'm not being survivalistic today?

[Something_Smart]

Really? You think as town I would be gifted a vig and just lay down and die before I get a chance to use it?

[Something_Smart]

That's preposterous.

[Something_Smart]

It's no small wonder you ended up with a gun, then, considering that you're stubbornly refusing to consider that I might not play exactly like you. Like seriously, everyone in this game who knows me, even skitter who scumreads me, can attest that that's normal.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not going to consider executing someone with a gun today. I'm not executing Tetrina, I'm obviously not executing Cephrir, that leaves {skitter, Galron, ssbm}. I don't have especially strong feelings on any of them, it having been made abundantly clear that my reads yesterday were not good. Between the three of them I would probably pick skitter because it would explain the lack of solidity of reads in general and she really doesn't seem to be trying to sort me today (or even listen to me).

I'm expecting tonight to sort everything out. I'm also expecting to get shot tonight so I don't really think I'll have to deal with it.

[Something_Smart]

- i think survivalism is a scumtrait

it depends on the situation! seriously though, what exactly would you be expecting me to do as town here, if not exactly this? it's not even because I specifically don't want to die, there's a very particular mechanical reason for it.

like what is this level zero thinking, it feels like you're not even considering the things I'm saying :/

[Something_Smart]

like what do you think i'm not considering here

- that scum very likely gave out the guns, and therefore they probably don't have a way to mess with it
- that given the above, there is mechanically no upside to executing someone with a gun because you lose a town-controlled kill if they are town; it's only downside
- that given the above, mechanically I should want to survive today (along with everyone else with a gun), regardless of my alignment

[Something_Smart]

ok, the bolded is true *if the assumption that the gunners are town* holds, which is not at all obvious to me
if you're scum you just get another kill tongiht, and that's a very big downside to my pov

No it doesn't! If we execute a scum with a gun, assuming exactly one scum dies overnight (that's the only way the game continues), then it goes down to 3:1. If we instead executed a player without a gun, that scum with a gun would get to shoot (and would presumably also be shot), so it would instead go to 2:1, with one more trusted townie dead. Dayplay-wise, there might be a small difference here, but realistically I think the game will probably be solvable in mylo regardless. But mechanically, there is no difference between the two.

That's the crux of the argument. As long as the trusted people make their reads clear, then having one of them die overnight isn't really a big loss-- but executing a townie with a gun is a huge loss.

[Something_Smart]

but whatever let's move on to the fact that ss wants to be alive to shoot someone but isn't elaborating on who or what he wants to do wiht it

Whoever people want me to shoot. It literally doesn't matter.

[Something_Smart]

I will probably listen to Ceph's direction in the end, but the most important thing is that we coordinate anyway.

[Something_Smart]

How does that point to me being scum?

[Something_Smart]

You were just recently scum with me. Is that at all what I did?

[Something_Smart]

you replaced into a very different situation there

I almost got executed that game, and I sure wasn't holding back from giving reads.

Besides, I've played a lot of games where I'm the first scum to flip. I'm quite good at having reads that don't make it obvious who my partners are.

Whereas... reads this game are all out of whack. I felt reasonably good about my initial set of reads, but plenty of people called them complete garbage, and several people who were in my PoE have now been flipped or confirmed town. And on top of that I received a gun. And on top of that skitter and Pooky have both been pushing me for inane bullshit for a long time now and surely they aren't

both

scum. So I don't really know what kind of pristine solve you are expecting me to have as town, but rest assured, I do not have one.

I have already shared what reads I am sticking to. I still don't think Pooky is scum, I still don't think Ydrasse is scum. I'm having a harder and harder time seeing skitter as town, I think she could be partnered with any of {you, Galron, ssbm}. Tetrina could be scum I guess, though it kinda seems like she constitutes a fair bit of town's power.

This game is going to be much clearer after tonight (if it's still going). I also think it's highly unlikely that I live the night, and I have trust in whichever townies survive to figure it out. Based on my reasoning, the only valid options to execute today are {skitter, Galron, ssbm}, and among them I have already stated skitter as my favorite, if she gets support, which she probably won't.

[Something_Smart]

Why's that?

[Something_Smart]

? if we execute scum with a gun, and one scum dies overnight, the game just ends, i don't follow

sorry, I meant assuming exactly one scum dies total.

[Something_Smart]

can i just point out that responses like these just divert away from the questions that were actually asked ....

Yes, I diverted from what seemed like an unhelpful question to a line of discussion that seemed more helpful and relevant to what he's asking about. If he still wants to hear the answer to the original question, he's free to ask it again.

[Something_Smart]

if we execute scum with a gun, and don't kill a scum overnight, it's 3:1
if we execute town with a gun, and kill a scum overnight, it's 3:1

The difference here is that say we have a townbloc of 4. Execute scum with a gun, scum kills a town in the bloc, the rest of the shots are outside the bloc and miss. 3 townbloc members alive D4, which is 100% assuming the bloc is right.
Whereas if we execute town with a gun, scum kills two townies in the bloc, and now it's 3:1 but with only two of them alive, which is 50%.
And if we execute town without a gun, then scum kills two townies in the bloc and one shot hits, now it's 2:1 with the two being bloc members, once again 100%.

Repeat this with a bloc of 3 and you get 50% - 33% - 50%, same deal. If we hit exactly one scum between today and tonight, mechanically, there's no advantage to hitting them during the day, even if they have a gun. Whereas there is a disadvantage to hitting a townie with a gun.

Does that make sense?

[Something_Smart]

- for the first sentence, you're assuming only 1 scum has a gun. which, tbf, i think is likely, but i don't think ti's mechanically guaranteed and basing plans on that is ? questionable to me.

That is true, I was implicitly assuming that. I think it would be pretty insane for scum to have 2 guns plus a NK. Besides, I'm not sure the math actually changes much if they do-- just assume that one extra member of the townbloc is dying in every case.

- we're also assuming we have an accurate townbloc, but there isn't, like, a consensus townbloc rn
- we're also bankign the game on the townbloc, which i'm not confident i am wiling to do rn
- if this logic depends on forming an accurate townbloc, why are you not trying to do so ? like this whole mechanical reasoning is predicated on a townbloc that we don't have that you aren't trying to craete (and i'm putting the onus on you since this is your reasoning for how we ought to play the day and why you oughtn't be flipped today)

This is for the sake of argument. Regardless of how the game goes, there will be some people that we won't end up executing/vigging; those people can be called the "townbloc". I'm drawing a clear line between towny and scummy so the example is simpler, but it works even if you assume that the people are just placed in a ranking from towniest to scummiest. I can run through that reasoning if you want but like... this isn't something I would lie about, so I feel like it shouldn't be necessary.

- also from my pov i don't know that you *aren't* scum with a gun (vs town with a gun), so arguing that from my pov it's better not to flip you is questionable to me, as i'm currently scurmeading you .... like it's only better not to flip you if you're actually town, but you're not showin gme why you're town, only arguign that *if* you are, we shouldn't flip you

I am never, nowhere, arguing that I shouldn't be flipped. I am arguing that I should be flipped tonight rather than today. If you think I'm scum, that still gets you exactly what you want. My logic shows that if I'm scum, flipping me today (as opposed to tonight) doesn't help, and if I'm town, flipping me today (as opposed to tonight) is very important. So as long as you recognize there's a CHANCE I'm town, you shouldn't be opposing this.

[Something_Smart]

if I'm town, flipping me today (as opposed to tonight) is very important

er, I mixed up my clauses a bit here. if I'm town, flipping me today (as opposed to tonight) is very

harmful

.

[Something_Smart]

Gamma, why do you disagree with my logic?

[Something_Smart]

i don't get how people are scumreading galron >.>

You did not just townread Galron for seemingly being okay with being shot while I've been effectively trying to get myself shot for multiple days now.

[Something_Smart]

Well if people want a team solve, I think I have one now.

[Something_Smart]

again if you've been trying to get yourself shot for multiple days now this was not at all obvious

I mean have I not been talking about how the people who want to execute me should be equally fine with shooting me? Like I'm not an idiot, I don't expect to avoid suspicion entirely and I don't think I need to in order for us to win. I maybe was not explicit about it until today, but my arguments earlier were literally for why we should shoot me instead of executing me.

[Something_Smart]

I think I heard an Angel sing in the distance

It's skitter and Galron, in case it wasn't obvious. I'm not as confident about Galron, but the way skitter is protecting him + the way the gun choices seemed to protect him makes me lean that way.

I... I mean there isn't much of a case I can make, but even if people don't agree with my points, they should be able to see how skitter is completely refusing to engage with them.

VOTE: skitter

[Something_Smart]

Well, Galron knew shiki was a PR, right? I've seen plenty of scumteams that aim for PR's and universal townreads without caring about their reads, because reads can change.

[Something_Smart]

and why is galron literally advocating to get himself shot again?

Why am I?

[Something_Smart]

I'm also expecting to get shot tonight so I don't really think I'll have to deal with it.

[Something_Smart]

I mean I don't see how that matters?

[Something_Smart]

Like why does it matter that it was only 4 hours ago

[Something_Smart]

I don't understand why you think town!me who thinks you're scum would want you to survive to night in order to shoot someone with your gun

I assume that's because you haven't actually read anything I've written.

[Something_Smart]

Do you understand my reasoning for why we shouldn't execute someone with a gun today?

[Something_Smart]

If it's a town player who's getting shot, a scum jailkeeper isn't going to do anything of the sort.

The amount of people who believe this mystifies me.

[Something_Smart]

Who believe that a scum jk would protect a townie?

Me? If it's a townie that everyone wants to shoot, then surely it would be to scum's advantage to block that and make town waste an execution on them.

[Something_Smart]

That said, I think it's moot because scum probably can't stop the shots. But stacking them all on one person is a terrible idea anyway.

[Something_Smart]

I don't know why.

Town-controlled kills are super valuable, because they give us more shots to hit scum. Stacking everyone on one person would be giving up town-controlled kills for pretty much no upside.

[Something_Smart]

Me waiting for literally anyone to notice what I posted last night:

I saw what you posted. It's good news, but it doesn't really affect what I want to do much. Just makes it even nicer to hit scum without a gun today.

[Something_Smart]

If the guns are all blanks then I will be tilted into another dimension. That would be so disgustingly rude on MT's part.

[Something_Smart]

Why wouldn't I mean that? I hate it when mods troll their players.

[Something_Smart]

It looks town to be emotive? Since when?

[Something_Smart]

It looks town to be emotive? Since when?

(Serious answer: the main emotion that I will show in a game is frustration/annoyance. There wasn't anything to be frustrated about before, now there is.)

[Something_Smart]

Gives you personality and makes players more attached. At least that's how I've always seen it when people start saying

strong

things irl

I mean, that doesn't really even apply to the post you quoted, since it's really only a statement of opinion-- I hate setups where mods troll their players, that has nothing to do with my alignment this game.

I actually can't tell if you're arguing showing emotion is towny or if you're arguing it's scummy. Sounds like you're arguing it's scummy; I think that generally isn't true here.

[Something_Smart]

Well Smart I was saying it's towny but it's scummy if it looks like the person started doing it to look towny

I mean sure, anything is scummy if it looks like it was done to look towny. I want to say that my frustration is pretty understandable though?

I have played in way too many games where the mod puts in stupid bullshit without caring about whether it's fun.

[Something_Smart]

Why is no one suspicious of cephrir anymore?

Because he's a friendly neighbor?

[Something_Smart]

He can't be scum except with me.

[Something_Smart]

Yes.

[Something_Smart]

(Technically, it wasn't his initial role, but a gift he received.)

[Something_Smart]

Pooky would you like to see what a true S_S antispew looks like? It is nothing like this.

[Something_Smart]

Pooky would you like to see what a true S_S antispew looks like? It is nothing like this.

You've actually seen it before; D5 of ducky's PYP game, when I 1v1'd Infinity but didn't push her or really do anything at all.

I can't speak to what Enchant did, but saying that I'm antispewing and not trying here, when I've repeatedly explained my mechanical argument (which you admitted you didn't read) to what might as well be a brick wall, is ridiculous.

[Something_Smart]

yes you kind of also did mech stuff in that game and didnt really push anything or vote

But I do mech stuff in every game I play. I had like 10 posts for the entire day phase there. And I have both pushed and voted today.

[Something_Smart]

her unvote when SS hit E-1 is incredibly townie.

This is a meta read, right? Because I am a far worse scum player than skitter, and I could figure out to do this. Why do you think she in particular wouldn't?

[Something_Smart]

If she thinks that I'm gonna get executed anyway, it's possible.

It's definitely +town, but I don't think it's conclusive.

[Something_Smart]

I guess.

I suppose it's not going to be easy to sell you on the way she's acting today being problematic when you're acting the same way.

[Something_Smart]

Did he explain what he meant by airdrop?

[Something_Smart]

Pooky/anyone doesn't make sense.

[Something_Smart]

It just occurred to me that scum probably knew Ceph was a FN and he almost got executed yesterday despite that.

My first instinct, without looking at the votes, is that scum would have stayed off that wagon because they figured it would backfire if he claimed.

[Something_Smart]

Cephrir [4] : Tetrina, DrippingGoofball, Something_Smart, Infinity 324

Hey, look at that. Scum were indeed avoiding the wagon like the plague.

I should probably go back and read that part to see who was avoiding voting him for spurious reasons.

[Something_Smart]

So, it seems like the ones who were actively avoiding the Ceph wagon were ssbm and Gamma.

My reads are in a tangle right now.

UNVOTE:

[Something_Smart]

Pooky, if you're wondering why I don't push my reads harder, here's your goddamn answer. I have decision anxiety, and I constantly second-guess myself.

[Something_Smart]

I want to believe that scum-skitter wouldn't be defending town-Galron this heavily, but sadly I think that's exactly the kind of fancy play she might do even if she didn't need to. Besides, as I've been saying, it's what I would do as scum.

[Something_Smart]

I'm done being paranoid of Tetrina atp, that's an L we will have to take if she's scum. The way she played her claim + her engagement today + her starting the Ceph wagon I think is enough.

[Something_Smart]

I want to believe that scum-skitter wouldn't be defending town-Galron this heavily, but sadly I think that's exactly the kind of fancy play she might do even if she didn't need to. Besides, as I've been saying, it's what I would do as scum.

I guess the real question is does scum-skitter defend scum-Galron. Because if not then it never makes sense to flip him today, we'd always want to flip her first.

If skitter/Galron is the team they have two executions and four bullets to avoid. Skitter pushing me as hard as she can is basically a foregone conclusion in that world, and she has to act unconvinced by my logic. But, even if she gets me executed, Gamma might still shoot one of them, and then the other is probably in hot water in mylo.

[Something_Smart]

- you're scumreading me for not voting enchant when you were townreading me for that exact thing earlier

This directed at me? I'm not scumreading you for not voting Enchant. I still think that leans town, but your behavior today outweighs it.

[Something_Smart]

Ceph

What are your thoughts on everything I've posted this page?

[Something_Smart]

Hardly for spurious reasons. I've been working with both of them all game.

That's true, I can't reasonably double check the reasoning.

Do you think this fact makes them more likely to gift you a FN?

[Something_Smart]

And now I'm remembering how adamant skitter was on killing me D1 which means that if she's town she might be too stuck in a tunnel to objectively consider my arguments?

I don't know, I feel like she's the best flip today despite that, but I will take her word and leave Galron alone if she's town.

[Something_Smart]

Why are your guns compulsive?

@S_S

Why are you asking me? I didn't design the setup.

[Something_Smart]

I don't know, I feel like she's the best flip today despite that, but I will take her word and leave Galron alone if she's town.

Actually, no, wait, this logic works both ways. If town skitter implies town Galron, then scum Galron implies scum skitter. Either flip has a chance of giving info.

[Something_Smart]

I swear this lobby is committed to not doing the mechanically optimal thing ever.

[Something_Smart]

It literally isn't and I'm trying not to be arrogant but I think I'm one of the mechanically strongest people here. And I know that there are plenty of people who will not worry about mechanics and let other people figure it out, and that's all well and good, but then you're in a situation where you scumread them and have to evaluate their logic and people just can't.

[Something_Smart]

And S_S, can you explain the flavor of how it is X-shot?

Only one bullet.

[Something_Smart]

Look ok. If we aren't vigs then (a) we can all be mad at MT together and (b) we aren't anywhere close to lylo so we have plenty of time to recalibrate.

[Something_Smart]

Actually I thought of this before but I felt like people would be mad at me for it, but I honestly don't care. The mechanical advantage is so great, and the worst that will happen is me getting shot, but I've already stated that I'm fine with it, in fact I think it ought to happen.

If Galron is scum skitter is scum. If not, she's probably town, I guess.

VOTE: Galron

[Something_Smart]

GGs. No redactions.

Felt like we were dead in the water there for a while, I'm glad we at least were able to make it close. I think we actually could have won if we hadn't also shot Pooky (no way in hell we saw that shot coming from Ydrasse).

[Something_Smart]

For what it's worth, my plans were mostly genuine-- really the only difference is there was some TMI mixed in because I knew the guns were real and scum couldn't interfere, but those were both reasonable assumptions for town to make. The frustration at being ignored was therefore also mostly genuine (though obviously the Galron hammer was a scumclaim).

[Something_Smart]

Ceph was planning to claim N3 vig, using my gun, and that's why he said his role was confirmable. But we ended up deciding with all the other guns given out N2 that that would look really sketchy, so we had to come up with something else "confirmable". Given the way Ceph was defending me but I obviously wasn't getting NK'd I made a lot of sense as a FN target from him, so we decided to go for it.

[Something_Smart]

Also re: this post, I agree with you, MT. I was meaning that if all 5 callers were you (as I initially thought), that would be bastard. I take somewhat of an objection with you saying "both alignments" in the OP rather than "town and scum", as it implies there are only two, but I think it was reasonable enough. I wasn't paying enough attention to realize that Shutterbug hadn't said anything game-relevant.