In post 5121, Lukewarm wrote:To be real, it feels like A LOT of people are dismissing the plan, because not trying to kill scum today does not "feel right" and trying to vote out the scum does "feel right" without actually looking at the pros and cons of the plans.
Mini 2230: Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night: Game Over
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
Don't really want to debate a movie in here.
But, when I see an option that is like way more +ev for us to win, not doing it because of the "principle" of it is very very not convincing to me
If you have a perfect solve, and we kill them today and tomorrow directly, then we win. If you have a perfect solve, and we do my plan, and then kill them tomorrow and the next day, we still win (EVEN IF MY PLAN FAILS BTW - like, if they have a roleblocker, it still works with a perfect solve today)
If you have the perfect solve, we win either way.
But if your solve is wrong, we lose with your plan. And if your solve is wrong, we get to try again with my plan.
So, I'm playing to my win condition by pushing it as hard as I can.-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
I tried to fix it later. The "they" was penguin and cabd.In post 5133, Snarky Fishes wrote:
Could you reword? There's a clear contradiction between isoing Dun and Medea and thinking they're both scum days 1 and 2, but Dunn seeming super town, unless you're saying Dunn has only seemed super town this day phase.In post 5124, Lukewarm wrote:In post 5116, Snarky Fishes wrote:Dunn and Medea? Every fiber of my being says that they are scum when I look over their isos from days 1 and 2, but dunn has seemed super town, and I just dont see how the mech could work on scum medea.
Back.
-Bell-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
This loses the game if we don't hit the corrupter today.In post 5137, Snarky Fishes wrote:Then I think that unwnd MUST agree to shard you tonight.
It delays the first deshard by a night, assuming manatee is a backup desharder, and it adds a demonic to the count that otherwise wouldn't happen, but after night 5 we should be back to today's count hopefully.
We are at 6 + 1 corrupted
If unwnd turns the dragons, and then the scum corrupt one and turn both, that is 9. We lose.
The only way for this plan to work we have to either: kill the scum corrupter directly or force a human townie to suicide on you. (And if we are forcing a human townie to suicide on you anyways, it should just be the dragons...)
Having unwnd shard the dragons feels like a bad plan. It also relies on trusting that both the dragons and unwnd are town. (To be fair, my plan requires trusting manatee to be town, but that feels safer to me)-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
This oneIn post 5121, Lukewarm wrote:
All plans involve finding our best guess for the scum team today, but then the different plans branch on how to go about killing themIn post 5119, Lukewarm wrote:I actually am not sure why so many people are so against it anyways. Even if I am wrong, I am pretty sure that we are in the same boat as if we just hunt for the right scum team. And absolutely no one giving me a reasonable explanation of how it is better to do it your way sure does not make me feel like changing gears....
------
Plan 1: Vote for the scum team directly this Day phase.
Spoiler:
------
Plan 2: Try to get our top scum read to hammer the Fishes
Spoiler:
Plan 3: Ask the dragons to hammer the Fishes (then killing our top scum reads starting tomorrow)
Spoiler:
-----
My plan has THE BEST upside if it works, hands down. No one is even arguing this, I don't think
But then it does not even have the worst downsides on being wrong (see plan 1)...
And there are still people out there advocating plan 1...
To be real, it feels like A LOT of people are dismissing the plan, because not trying to kill scum today does not "feel right" and trying to vote out the scum does "feel right" without actually looking at the pros and cons of the plans.-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
But you are instead on board for unwnd to demonize someone else, and make it that much closer for the scum team to win?In post 5144, Annie Edison wrote:Yeah let’s have two townies purposefully kill each other instead of kill scum
That’s a great fucking idea how could this ever go wrong-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
The scum team are very clearly not trying to win by killing townies, they are trying to win by turning humans into demons.In post 5146, Lukewarm wrote:
But you are instead on board for unwnd to demonize someone else, and make it that much closer for the scum team to win?In post 5144, Annie Edison wrote:Yeah let’s have two townies purposefully kill each other instead of kill scum
That’s a great fucking idea how could this ever go wrong
Killing townies does not actually make them closer to winning. Passing out shards does...-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
Do we direct manatee before we do this?
Or is it actually better to trust manatee to choose a demon to turn?
There are pros and cons to both. It is probably better to let her choose if we think she will live til tomorrow with medea and spiff both targeting her.
If we are worried about a strong man, then we might need to say who she is targeting in advance tho-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
Would like the full plan ironed out first x.x
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
@spiffIn post 5145, Lukewarm wrote:
This oneIn post 5121, Lukewarm wrote:
All plans involve finding our best guess for the scum team today, but then the different plans branch on how to go about killing themIn post 5119, Lukewarm wrote:I actually am not sure why so many people are so against it anyways. Even if I am wrong, I am pretty sure that we are in the same boat as if we just hunt for the right scum team. And absolutely no one giving me a reasonable explanation of how it is better to do it your way sure does not make me feel like changing gears....
------
Plan 1: Vote for the scum team directly this Day phase.
Spoiler:
------
Plan 2: Try to get our top scum read to hammer the Fishes
Spoiler:
Plan 3: Ask the dragons to hammer the Fishes (then killing our top scum reads starting tomorrow)
Spoiler:
-----
My plan has THE BEST upside if it works, hands down. No one is even arguing this, I don't think
But then it does not even have the worst downsides on being wrong (see plan 1)...
And there are still people out there advocating plan 1...
To be real, it feels like A LOT of people are dismissing the plan, because not trying to kill scum today does not "feel right" and trying to vote out the scum does "feel right" without actually looking at the pros and cons of the plans.
Because shooting our top scum read directly is actually the least optimal way to try and win.
If enough people prefer aa9 to Annie, then aa9 can be the manatee target / our kill tomorrow-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
We have evidence now.In post 5176, Spiffeh wrote:Has there been anymore evidence revealed that suggests Manatee will actually inherit HTBD powers or are is that just the hope at this point?
They flavor claimed, and manatees flavor is literally a back up to the dragons flavor.
The dragons flavor runs a shop where you can get rid of your unwanted shards. Later in the game,anatees flavor takes over that shop.-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
If your aa9 solve is right, we will be killing her tomorrow, and you get that anyways.
The scum team dropped 3 nights worth of actions to try and win via alt win con. We need to drop today's elim to stop them.
We literally go back to Killin our top scum reads tomorrow.
If we kill aa9 today, and you are wrong, we lose the game on the spot. If we kill her tomorrow, we do not lose on the spot.-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
The numbers work with 7 demons (although, tracking the shards 6 feels right)In post 5198, Spiffeh wrote:
There are AT LEAST 6 demons in playIn post 5190, ManateeGal wrote:there are currently 6 demons in play.
I think there probably are exactly 6, but this is yet another assumption that completely ruins "the plan" if it's not correct
If it is 8, then we have lost already-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
I am very much in support of the plan, so I have been arguing that it is a good plan. Not that it needs to be hammered immediately.In post 5206, Spiffeh wrote:My bad, I saw you posting in support of the plan a lot and assumed you and Bell were in it together
I made the plan
I ran the numbers.
It is ALWAYS better then shooting at our top scum read directly.
If you are RIGHT on our scum solve, we win either way - just shoot aa9 tomorrow.
But if you are wrong, and we shoot aa9 directly today. We lose. On the spot.
If you are wrong, and we shoot aa9 tomorrow. We don't lose. The entire plan is about buying us extra miselims.-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
I can run the numbers. I'll be back.In post 5219, Snarky Fishes wrote:
I think it puts us on medea's plan.In post 5215, Lukewarm wrote:I'm not sure...
Or, we could choose to directly elim dragons. It doesn't stop N4 from being a 2-demonization night, but theoretically we get the deshard tonight instead of N5?-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
Worst case scenario for Shooting CephTD directly ( and scum keep going for shards)In post 5221, Lukewarm wrote:
I can run the numbers. I'll be back.In post 5219, Snarky Fishes wrote:
I think it puts us on medea's plan.In post 5215, Lukewarm wrote:I'm not sure...
Or, we could choose to directly elim dragons. It doesn't stop N4 from being a 2-demonization night, but theoretically we get the deshard tonight instead of N5?
Spoiler:
The scum team wins the alt win con race if the corrupter unless like, aa9 is the corrupted.-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
In post 5236, Spiffeh wrote:I see it Annie.
I think she should die today. I do however see some merit in using Snarky's ability to remove her. I get why it's a consideration at this point, at least.
Apparently Medea has a different plan? Excited to encounter that in my catch up.
It is basically the same plan, but has unwnd hammer the fishes instead of aa9-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
Be the hero you want to see in the worldIn post 5252, ManateeGal wrote:i miss pooky and his pagetop counting-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
Yeah, I have steadily become more convinced that annie is just scum, but did not want to say it and make bell mad at me againIn post 5253, ManateeGal wrote:genuinely gobsmacked annie thinks lukewarms plan is an attempt at distraction the more i think about it-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
Well, my plan is dead anyways without the dragons, so I think you can stop worrying about it.In post 5264, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:I hate all these plans. I hate ALL these plans.
Why is Luke clear again? I forget, because I want to kill him
Why do you dislike having our target hammer the fishes?
Because, like, even if you want to kill me, that should probably happen that way-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
A direct elim on me (or any townie) is an instant loss.In post 5267, Lukewarm wrote:Because, like, even if you want to kill me, that shouldprobablydefinitelyhappen that way
If anyone hammers the fishes (and I mean anyone, me, another townie, the corrupter, the other scum) then there seems to be a 0% chance we lose on the spot.-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
I would like to just say that I fucking hate this post.In post 5140, Annie Edison wrote:That plan works for me.
Like, he did not even once stop to think about the ramifications of this plan. Just instantly on board for it.
And the plan he jumped for has a decent chance of making us lose the game faster...-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
And that was enough for you to rubber stamp a plan to purposefully give out shards when we know the scum team is trying to win via shards?In post 5273, Annie Edison wrote:I figured it would be evident but it was “any plan that lets me kill scum and not send townies off the slaughter mill, works for me”
No pause to consider if that was actively helping the scum team?-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
This is not berserker.In post 5275, Annie Edison wrote:You’re the one who wanted berserker, Luke
Strike first.
Strike hard.
No mercy.
I’m being decisive. I’ve been waffling around and giving up control all game. I finally get some footing, and all anyone wants to talk about is killing townies. So no. I didn’t give a second thought because I was relieved that it seemed like there’s even in a minuscule amount of sense left in this game.-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
Yeah, I have accepted that it does not matter how many people we get on board with my plan, if the dragons wont agree the plan is dead.In post 5278, Snarky Fishes wrote:Not sure how to go about forcing a player to hammer us.
It seems like without the capability to arm-twist, we're stuck either (1) straight up elimming dragons or (2) having someone else who's human hammer us, and that player will almost certainly be town.
Neither option is as potentially effective as dragons hammering us, in terms of both (hopefully) activating a de-sharder and preventing our becoming a demon.
So which of those two options is most helpful to town in your opinion, and why?
Or, option 3 we can scumhunt and do our best to find the corrupter.
I don't think it's the case but the Anne claim could be a bork-crafted fake claim, in which case plans involving killing dragons could all be just about fatally flawed.
Killing the dragons directly does not win the race against the scum team, and full stop the alt win con the way that having them hammer you would.
So, should only really be done if we think that the dragons might be scum. Killing the dragons, then killing our corrupter target is about the same as killing our corrupter target directly today. But I think that the dragons are town, so I don't think that it accomplishes anything other then making the dragons hate us in the post game x.x-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
I think that it really boils down to:In post 5281, Lukewarm wrote:
Yeah, I have accepted that it does not matter how many people we get on board with my plan, if the dragons wont agree the plan is dead.In post 5278, Snarky Fishes wrote:Not sure how to go about forcing a player to hammer us.
It seems like without the capability to arm-twist, we're stuck either (1) straight up elimming dragons or (2) having someone else who's human hammer us, and that player will almost certainly be town.
Neither option is as potentially effective as dragons hammering us, in terms of both (hopefully) activating a de-sharder and preventing our becoming a demon.
So which of those two options is most helpful to town in your opinion, and why?
Or, option 3 we can scumhunt and do our best to find the corrupter.
I don't think it's the case but the Anne claim could be a bork-
crafted fake claim, in which case plans involving killing dragons could all be just about fatally flawed.
Killing the dragons directly does not win the race against the scum team, and full stop the alt win con the way that having them hammer you would.
So, should only really be done if we think that the dragons might be scum. Killing the dragons, then killing our corrupter target is about the same as killing our corrupter target directly today. But I think that the dragons are town, so I don't think that it accomplishes anything other then making the dragons hate us in the post game x.x
Find our top corrupter target, and ask them to hammer you.
If they refuse, we speed elim them.
I don't see a better option if we cannot get the dragons on board-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
And if that person is town, then we lose on the spot, and they actively threw the game. So, if you are town, and we have the votes to elim you, please don't refuse to hammer the fishesIn post 5282, Lukewarm wrote:
I think that it really boils down to:In post 5281, Lukewarm wrote:
Yeah, I have accepted that it does not matter how many people we get on board with my plan, if the dragons wont agree the plan is dead.In post 5278, Snarky Fishes wrote:Not sure how to go about forcing a player to hammer us.
It seems like without the capability to arm-twist, we're stuck either (1) straight up elimming dragons or (2) having someone else who's human hammer us, and that player will almost certainly be town.
Neither option is as potentially effective as dragons hammering us, in terms of both (hopefully) activating a de-sharder and preventing our becoming a demon.
So which of those two options is most helpful to town in your opinion, and why?
Or, option 3 we can scumhunt and do our best to find the corrupter.
I don't think it's the case but the Anne claim could be a bork-
crafted fake claim, in which case plans involving killing dragons could all be just about fatally flawed.
Killing the dragons directly does not win the race against the scum team, and full stop the alt win con the way that having them hammer you would.
So, should only really be done if we think that the dragons might be scum. Killing the dragons, then killing our corrupter target is about the same as killing our corrupter target directly today. But I think that the dragons are town, so I don't think that it accomplishes anything other then making the dragons hate us in the post game x.x
Find our top corrupter target, and ask them to hammer you.
If they refuse, we speed elim them.
I don't see a better option if we cannot get the dragons on board-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
I think she meant to say "being the corrupter"In post 5315, Snarky Fishes wrote:I don't remember anyone talking about you being corrupted and luring town to vote? Who posted that? Can you give me a post number?-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
From my pov, scum!spiff would not have gone so hard on pooky, unless exactly the dragons were his partner (and I was leaning town on the dragons), so I did not think spiff was scum.In post 5321, Snarky Fishes wrote:
I was coming into day 4 with scumreads on Spiffeh, unwnd, and maaaaybe AA9. Bell was stressing the fuck out about Spiffeh.In post 5318, Medea the Alien wrote:My other point is that spiffeh is a TERRIBLE target choice. Like, I get that in a town him world it's his PR and his choice how to use it, but seriously, ouch.
The choice wasn't terrible from my POV, though solo-me would probably have checked unwnd if I had a cop investigation at that point.
I would have checked unwnd. Annie put him being willing to go with a dragon vote to indicate that he was town, but imo, that looked more like scum to me. A town dragon flip day 2 would have almost always lead to a pooky flip day 3 I think, so sneaking in an extra miselim before the beloved princess went off seemed like it would actually be better then having the beloved princess go off on day 2 anyways.-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
I would not have targetted dunn either :/In post 5345, Snarky Fishes wrote:
Clearly, I don't think optimally then. I wouldn't have checked Dunn. He was a strong townread (still is).In post 5326, Medea the Alien wrote:
I mean purely from optimal usage, it would be to check Dunn, which then confirms HIS info as accurate which in turn clears anyone else who cleared him AND proves your own role.In post 5321, Snarky Fishes wrote:
I was coming into day 4 with scumreads on Spiffeh, unwnd, and maaaaybe AA9. Bell was stressing the fuck out about Spiffeh.In post 5318, Medea the Alien wrote:My other point is that spiffeh is a TERRIBLE target choice. Like, I get that in a town him world it's his PR and his choice how to use it, but seriously, ouch.
The choice wasn't terrible from my POV, though solo-me would probably have checked unwnd if I had a cop investigation at that point.
If we don't murder Unwnd today and the game is still going, he needs to shard an existing demon to "prove" himself as it were.-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
Being a VT/VT myself makes me want to believe that she is one too.In post 5350, Medea the Alien wrote:It seems the game intends to bet everything on AA9 being the corrupter so Hito shrug.
Do you think that having 1 vt/vt would imply a second one existing? Or is there actually being exactly 1 vt/vt not as strange as it feels to me?-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
Pooky's ability had a dead line of day 3, so there was no reason to go THAT hard on day 2, if there was a perfectly good miselim alternative on the table.In post 5349, unwnd wrote:
He was a beloved princess. Scum was all over his wagonIn post 5347, Lukewarm wrote:From my pov, scum!spiff would not have gone so hard on pooky,
If anything, I think that the longer went without activating pooky the better for them.-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
I am responding in spoilers, because I don't think it matters since the dragons are not going to agree anywaysIn post 5394, Spiffeh wrote:Not quite finished catching up but I want to say this now:
Do I see the merit in using Snarky to remove someone from the game? Yes.
Do I see why people think CephTD's role will transfer to Manatee based on claimed flavor? Yes.
Do I see the benefit in dwindling the potential pool of players to pick from and simultaneously locking scum out of the alternate WC? Yes.
But I still don't want to do this plan. Because in the next cycle of or two if we survive long enough, we will still be in Lim-Lo and I will still want to lim AA9. So I don't want to delay something that is going to be inevitable based on these (admittedly decent) hunches. The way I see it, the corruptor is either AA9 or Novice. It is a binary. If I lose the game missing the corruptor here than so be it, it's clear there are some issues with this setup mechanically and I can soothe my ego by hanging my hat on that. It's not worth jumping through all these hoops and waste more time to put us in a marginally better position of PoE-ing scum if limming AA9 is going to be the result anyway.
Spoiler:-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
It is taking everything in me to not explain all over again why voting her out directly is strictly worse then doing it via my plan >.<
But I am trying to fight the urge, because it is a futile battle. Convincing you does nothing. I think I have the votes needed to do the plan, but it never works unless the dragons agree
Spoiler:-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
In post 5416, Lukewarm wrote:I not a big fan of the plan of having unwnd target thedragons. am not looking at the numbers right this second, but I ran them before and I don't think it ever wins the race against the scum team.
I need to look at them again when I have a pc to see if it even buys us a miselim-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
In post 5441, Here There Be Dragons wrote:is there an option where we all just vote to stop playing
Well, you know, my plan very much involves you voting to stop playing-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
I still think that my plan is the best plan -- bangs drums, claps hands, points at it
But my scum reads are Annie and Unwnd. I like spiff's case on AA9, so I could see that too, but never with Annie
So I think my solve is either Annie+Unwnd or Unwnd +AA9
Annie is my stronger scum read, but unwnd is in both possibilites, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
I have repeatedly said that I would step back and let aa9 be the kill tomorrow in my plan. Its ay okay with me.In post 5469, Annie Edison wrote:Like literally look at Luke’s posting and he has consistently kept AA9 just out of his vote range
But like… that’s all kosher, scum has to be Annie
Fuck outta here lmao
Hell, we can go kill aa9 tomorrow, kill unwnd the next day, kill me the following day.
alt win con is dead, and we have flipped all 3 of those people. if any of us are scum, that is scum down. if any of us are town, it pools us out of the suspect pool, and does not fucking lose the game
-------
No one, at any point, has really told me what is the scenario where going through my plan has a lower chance to win, then killing AA9, or annie, or WHOEVER is the consensus corrupter solve directly.
If manatee is not the back up? nah man. Still just as good. We killed the fishes, so we had the miselim.
Scum team has a roleblock? nah man, Still just as good. We killed the fishes, so we had the miselim.
-----
If we are RIGHT on our corrupter solve, then both paths kill the corrupter.
If we are WRONG on our corrupter solve, and that player is a townie, thenkilling them directly loses the game on the spot. If we are wrong on the corrupter solve with my plan, we dont.
Like, even if my plan falls apart because of a roleblock or something, the outcome is the same as killing directly.
-----
The real frustrating thing to me, is that no one is even arguing that my plan doesn't work. Just that they don't like it....
---
pedit: but with that bite me, I can see that the plan really is dead.-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
imo, Bulge was super scummy when he was here, and then disappeared
Asking for a shard day 1, and then the scum team sharding them when they could have sharded any one else.
His complete turn around on AA9 coming the moment me and manatee found the flavor stuff to back up my plan.
Making the blatantly anti-win con statement that he would rather us vote him out directly, then to hammer the fishes. Which, from a town!annie perspective is the equivalent of saying "would rather lose right now, then to give the town an extra shot if they are wrong about me" which is pretty :/-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
Oh look, its little old me signing off on the plan for aa9 to be targeted by the vanillizer and humanizer, and her being killed tomorrow when I thought that it was actually happening because the fishes were on boardIn post 5489, Annie Edison wrote:@luke- actions speak louder than words
Spoiler:
If the dragons had agreed in that moment, the day would have ended with that being the plan. Please explain the aa9-corrupter + luke-other scum plan out of this scenario.
My actions very much aligned with letting aa9 be targeted by manatee and promptly killed tomorrow.-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
It is true. He could be sitting at 1 shard, and you could be a demon.In post 5493, Snarky Fishes wrote:
That part's not true? with one shard already, they were able to shard 2 players the same night by using the corruption+1 shard on manatee.In post 5491, Lukewarm wrote:imo, Bulge was super scummy when he was here, and then disappeared
Asking for a shard day 1, and then the scum team sharding themwhen they could have sharded any one else.
His complete turn around on AA9 coming the moment me and manatee found the flavor stuff to back up my plan.
Making the blatantly anti-win con statement that he would rather us vote him out directly, then to hammer the fishes. Which, from a town!annie perspective is the equivalent of saying "would rather lose right now, then to give the town an extra shot if they are wrong about me" which is pretty :/
But they chose to do it the other way. Even though he claimed day 1 to have a demon ability strong enough to ask for a shard.-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
@spiffIn post 4980, Lukewarm wrote:I would like to just draw attention to Annie's stances on AA9, in the context of Spiff's case on AA9 and also when me and manatee discovered proper evidence that she was a deshard back up
----
Annie was hard lock town for AA9 since Medea pointed out their old game.
Spiffeh made his case on AA9 being the corrupter in post 4199
Here is every post Annie made about AA9 prior to the flavor claim with manatee
Spoiler:
-----
And then they do not mention AA9 for another like 200 posts.
Manatee and I discover the flavor evidence around post 4783
Annie, nearly immediately after this has an appifany that it is just AA9
Spoiler:
The timing of that turn around from "I am just not sure that it can be AA9" to ready to bet the entire game on "AA9 or bust" is suspicious to me.
------
Just, side note, Annie was on and around when me and manatee went on our flavor journey.
Annie makes 4761 just before the discovery, weighing in on my covo with Unwnd. Annie also makes 4788 just after the discovery. And there is radio silence on the luke/manatee convo. He then comes back the next morning, with his reversal on AA9 (moving the conversation past the manatee flavor stuff)
Re: his turn around on aa9-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
@Spiff again. that claim came after you were already clearedIn post 5499, Spiffeh wrote:Oh and I stand by the fact that scum!Annie has no reason to clear me today.
In post 5094, Lukewarm wrote:Spoiler:
(^^) Medea talking about how clear spiff was from lld's clear, multiple times before (vv) Annie claiming a clear on Spiff
Spoiler:-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
So Annie's claim is a 1 shot cop that targetted you. They made that claim after you were cleared by someone else AND because they are claiming 1 shot, they will never have to give results again.In post 5500, Lukewarm wrote:
@Spiff again. that claim came after you were already clearedIn post 5499, Spiffeh wrote:Oh and I stand by the fact that scum!Annie has no reason to clear me today.
In post 5094, Lukewarm wrote:Spoiler:
(^^) Medea talking about how clear spiff was from lld's clear, multiple times before (vv) Annie claiming a clear on Spiff
Spoiler:
This is not a reason I am saying to scum read them. I am just pointing out that it is a bad reason to town bin them
fixed i hope but wowLast edited by borkjerfkin on Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:10 am, edited 1 time in total.-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
The way the scum team did it, resulted in 2 new demons night two and 1 new demon night three.In post 5502, Snarky Fishes wrote:
Night 2 -- manatee gets corrupted and 1 shard. Annie gets 1 shard.In post 5495, Lukewarm wrote:
It is true. He could be sitting at 1 shard, and you could be a demon.In post 5493, Snarky Fishes wrote:
That part's not true? with one shard already, they were able to shard 2 players the same night by using the corruption+1 shard on manatee.In post 5491, Lukewarm wrote:imo, Bulge was super scummy when he was here, and then disappeared
Asking for a shard day 1, and then the scum team sharding themwhen they could have sharded any one else.
His complete turn around on AA9 coming the moment me and manatee found the flavor stuff to back up my plan.
Making the blatantly anti-win con statement that he would rather us vote him out directly, then to hammer the fishes. Which, from a town!annie perspective is the equivalent of saying "would rather lose right now, then to give the town an extra shot if they are wrong about me" which is pretty :/
But they chose to do it the other way. Even though he claimed day 1 to have a demon ability strong enough to ask for a shard.
Anyone besides Annie would require TWO shards on N2 in order to be demonized. We got 2 demons N2 because Annie had a shard.
It points to either AA9 having a demon ability of corruptor OR the corruptor being Naive, but the reason 2 demons were possible was because of the manatee corruption+shard.
If they did not want to turn annie (which they shouldn't based on annie's day 1), then they would have made 1 new demon night two and 1 new demon night three.
Both paths result in theexact same number of demons, andthe exact same number of people 1 shard away from being demonsat the start of this day phase.
The scum team did not need to demonize Annie. So, either annie is scum (and they wanted their ability) OR the scum team blatantly misplayed.-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
In post 5505, Lukewarm wrote:The way the scum team did it, resulted in 2 new demons night two and 1 new demon night three.
If they did not want to turn annie (which they shouldn't based on annie's day 1), then they would have made 1 new demon night two and2 new demonsnight three.
Both paths result in the exact same number of demons, and the exact same number of people 1 shard away from being demons at the start of this day phase.
The scum team did not need to demonize Annie. So, either annie is scum (and they wanted their ability) OR the scum team blatantly misplayed.-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021
-
-
Lukewarm Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Paragon of Mafia Hunters
- Posts: 9588
- Joined: March 21, 2021