Mini 644 - Meerkat Manor Mafia (Game Over!)

[Rhinox]

/confirm

P.S. Hi Cass, nice to be playing with you again

[Rhinox]

vote: ectomancer

...because dogs eat cats.

[Rhinox]

Cats? As in kats? As in

Meerkats

?? Did you just confess to being evil meerkat-eating scum?



Also... curiouskarma

dog

... oh my, that's the third dog! Are you, mafiamann and Rhinox a scumteam?

Aww damn Cass... I can't believe you outed us all already, and on such great tells no less

haha

[Rhinox]

vote mafiamann , because not voting in the rv stage can be a scumtell. Therefore this is no random vote.

FoS: mafiamann
FoS: StrangerCoug
FoS: muffinhead

If not voting in the random stage can be a scumtell, then so can self-voting. Both are equally useless for the town. muffinhead also gets an FoS because he only adressed the no-voting and not the self-voting. He either has a different view of self voting than me, or he

could

be scumbuddies with Coug.

[Rhinox]

Vote: Cass because I find making a big deal about a self-vote in the random voting stage to be a rather weak case.

About as weak of a case as making a big deal about someone making a big deal about a self vote don't you say?

Regardless, Cass is right. Not only can you not count that as the third vote, thats still is only L-4 - as in you still didn't have half the votes required for lynch.

Why do you seem so worried about a third vote, especially when 1 was your own and you could presumedly remove it before you got anywhere near being lynched?

Also Ecto, Cass already made that joke :p

[Rhinox]

The town always seems to let the self-voter go.

Thats because from a win condition POV, self-voting is going against your win condition if you're scum. However, its also a counter-productive "method" if you're town because it focuses the discussion on yourself (presumedly you know yourself that your town), rather than legitimate scumhunting. I.E. right now, a number of people are FoS-ing or Voting because Coug self-voted. If he is town, he brought it on himself and is distracting us from actually finding scum. If he's scum, he's using the "Why would I vote for myself if I were scum WIFOM". I don't buy the "it sparks discussion" because the discussion is always about the person who self-voted, and it nullifies any suspisions based on people jumping on the self-voters bandwagon. Without the self vote, maybe we could have caught a scum jumping on or pushing a

real

bandwagon, rather than a fabricated one.

Summary: If you're scum, its a WIFOM. If your town, there is absolutely nothing about self-voting that is pro-town.

unvote, vote: strangercoug

...

...because ecto's previous post was the best explanation I've ever seen for why a random stage self-voter needs to be pressured.

[Rhinox]

Alright, I wasn't able to post all weekend, so I feel I owe you all a nice big post chock full of stuff. Here goes:

I'm going to take a wild guess that the scum is on one of these wagons. I see no reason that anyone should be at L-4 or L-3 yet at all. We've barely started discussion and already someone is close to being lynched if any votes change.

As others have mentioned, L-3 or L-4 is no big thing. Its roughly half the votes needed for lynch. I wouldn't first get worried until L-2.

The scumtell is also crap.

I assume you're referring to the scumtell of not voting in the random stage... However, imagine if everyone refused to random vote, or everyone self-voted. How are we going to get anywhere? Not voting in the random stage is denying the town much needed conversation, regardless of how seemingly unimportant the information is. THAT is why not voting (and self voting) IS a scum-tell.

First off, unless you have a bunch of mindless players, the random voting stage isn't going to get anybody killed, which is why I panicked at the third random vote on me (I count myself because a vote is a vote).

*blows whistle* The minute you placed a vote on yourself, any further vote on you was no longer random.

This is awfully opportunistic for putting me at lynch -3, don't you think?

No I don't think, but I'll argue semantics with you nonetheless. You say I'm being opportunistic, but I say you're being opportunistic by attacking everyone who voted for you "because you self-voted". Its not as if I just opportunisticly jumped on the wagon without just cause. Read posts 53, 54, 55... I was just about ready to vote you in post 53, but I waited. Then Ecto made an excellent post that I agreed with and decided to add more pressure witha vote in post 55. Then you panicked.

To reiterate what I said earlier in the thread (maybe you'll understand now) - self voting is not a pro-town move. You say it is a null-tell, I think its slightly more a scum-tell, but we both agree, not pro-town. If you are a townie, you've just forced the conversation to be mostly about you for the first 5 pages - a distraction from actually finding scum. Not only that, you think that everyone who is voting for you is scummy and opportunistic - why? you ended the random stage by self voting, you deserve the pressure. You say you were judging for reactions, but the only 2 possible reactions are basically "eh" or "die scum"... how can you determine anything from that? you can't.

FOS Rhinox

For jumping on a dumb wagon, being opportunistic.

Lynch them both. Notice they haven't said anything about each other yet.

I'm sensing a lurker here... Oh, and now who's being opportunistic?

How many damn times do I have to say that I don't like the idea of anybody having ¼ of the votes in RV?

As I said before, once you voted for yourself, votes on you were no longer random.

I also dont like the fact that coug is voting for people because they voted for him.

QFT

I still say we string him up. Somebody's gotta die today, we might as well do the volunteer

Whoa there buddy. No one's talking about seriously lynching anybody yet. Its way too early in the day for bloodshed. Long days help the town - of course you would know that since you're our most experienced player

FOS Ecto

Seriously, if I have reacted to the current situation in a scummy manner, then please point that out and bring it to my attention, but dying over disagreements as to what is and is not acceptable in the random voting stage does not make any sense.

The scummy reaction is that you assume everyone voting for you because of the self vote is scum. Also, if dying over disagreements as to what is and is not acceptable in the random stage does not make any sense, then you should have never voted for me. I made it perfectly clear that I'm principally against self-voting. You disagree with my oppinion. You voted for me. Hence, you voted for me because you disagreed with what I thought was unacceptable in the random stage, and you justified it with calling me opportunistic.

It's not that I'm against people being at L-3 or L-4, it's that I'm against people being at those numbers on the second/third page for little reason.

L-5 would have been adaqute pressure on page two...

2 votes... your telling me 2 votes is adequate pressure? Thats BS is what it is. who's going to react to 2 votes? If it was still in the random stage on page 2, thats completely different. I'd say its a minor scum tell to say you want to limit pressure to 2 votes because the town would never learn anything helpful. When is it acceptable to place more than 2 votes? page 3? page 4? how can you place a limit based on page numbers. I'd think the content and pace of game should determine how much pressure is appropriate. Cougs self vote got the game going very rapidly. He deserved pressure so he would be forced to justify his actions.

Minor FOS: Clock

I did, however, want a gauge as to how many people and which ones had the WIFOMish thinking of "only scum would vote themselves". Right now Ectomancer fits this state of mind best, and my voting Rhinox is for putting me at an opportunistic L-3 based on Ectomancer's reasoning.

Just because I used Ecto's post to support my vote doesn't mean I was basing my vote on Ecto's reasoning. Again, refer to posts 53-55, and my first post where I express my concerns about self voting and not voting. Just because Ecto and I have the same oppinions of self voting doesn't mean we're working together, and it doesn't mean I'm piggybacking off of his idea.

For the last time, I intended to get my self-vote off once I had at least a half-decent idea of scum.

How did you expect to get an idea of who was scum based on reactions to your self vote?

Self-votes in the random voting stage are null-tells, which is the point I'm trying to bring across.

If you really think its a null-tell, then the reactions to it are also null-tells. The point I'm trying to make is that a townie self voting focuses the discussion where it need not be focused - on the townie and the semantics of self-voting. That is why I feel A PRO-TOWN PLAYER HAS NO BUSINESS EVER SELF-VOTING IN THE RANDOM VOTING STAGE.

Ectomancer had weak reasons to vote Strangercoug.

Admittedly selfvoting is idiotic but its a null tell, really.

Mafiamann's unwillingness to vote is quite scummy, as well.

This post screams to me as facade of activity without providing any content...

Bogre wrote:
Mafiamann's unwillingness to vote is quite scummy, as well.

I don't consider conservative play like this scummy per se.

Its not conservative play, its denying the town its best weapon early in the game - the power of votes. Imagine if all 12 of us said in our first post: "I'm not going to vote because random votes don't mean anything and I don't find anyone scummy" How would the game get started? How would the town ever get any information? Thats why not voting is scummy. IMO, self-voting is exactly the same thing as not voting.

You completely miss the point. Self-voting is not a null tell if it has become so prevelant by town that it becomes assumed that the person doing it is town "trying to get reactions". Reactions to a self-vote are also a null tell, so there is very little point to them except to:
1: derail wagons - StrangerCoug did this, but even as town this could be expected.
2: bring a case based upon reactions to a crappy move by town - also not helpful because people voting someone over a self-vote is also a null tell. It's not a town move.

You look at why SC voted himself, and the fact that any "reactions" are null tells at best, and SC didnt make a single townie move.
He made a calculated decision to self-vote, expecting people to back off of him, and if they didn't, he could go on attack on the "null tell" basis.

I still see no reason why he should be given a free pass to make anti-town moves without being pressured as the very possible scum that he is.

QFT. I think this post sums up what I've been trying to say regarding self-voting and not voting. I think we could argue back and forth if we wanted to. However, I feel I've gotten my point across and I now feel there are better avenues to persue.

unvote

However, I'm by no means giving coug a free pass, because for the rest of the game I'm going to view this as a black mark and will be paying very close attention to his arguments. If you're town coug, its time to start scum-hunting because arguing over the self-vote and reactions to the self vote is not helping the town.

Unvote
Vote: Bogre

for standing by quietly and throwing suspicion on a bunch of players, so he can vote them when the opportunity presents itself. Defend yourself, Bogre.

QFT

Double QFT. This is what I was going to do, but Cass beat me to it.

Discussion is currently revolving around:

- StrangerCoug's random vote on himself (which is the second vote for him)
- MafiaMann's third vote on SC (second if you don't count SC's own vote) which some people think is opportunistic to start a wagon
- some people think SC's random vote is scummy, some think it's a null-tell
- SC complains when more votes pile on him, so does ClockworkRuse (Clock says it's because the wagon is too quick and scum-driven, and this wagon draws discussion away from other things)

Is this all?

Because of this post, I consider jonathan in the same category as Bogre. Facade of activity without providing helpful content. Bogre is on the side of making comments that will allow him to jump on a wagon later on if one begins, and jonathan is on the side of playing the "confused newbie asking if he is understanding everything correctly". Except Jonathan has been here for about a year and a half and has no reason to be asking us if he understands everything so far. He has the experience to be able to keep up, so I don't by it:

vote: jonathan
FOS: Bogre

I need to hear both of you contribute something useful.

[Rhinox]

Granted, this can be argued. However, MafiaMann's given reason for voting me was that he can't spell ClockworkRuse's name, and it's been argued back that he could have just shortened it to "clock". When do you learn how to spell that? Second grade? Third at the latest?

I agree, mafiamann is giving very lame reasons right now. I didn't adress that in my last post because others have been addressing it and I didn't want to make my wall of text to large and cluttered.

Are you arguing that I'm being hypocritical here? This is what I'm getting from this part of your post.

yeah thats a good way of putting it.

Again, I wanted to see who would try to justify voting me by WIFOM.

OK. I'll believe that for now. Just because I don't agree with it as a strategy doesn't mean it automatically makes you scummy.

then unless I misunderstand you, then how did one manage to advance the game while the other is essentially stagnating it?

The question is, was the game advanced in a beneficial way? If everyone had the mindset that a self-vote was a null tell and should jsut be ignored, then a self vote would fulfill the same purpose as a no vote - stalling the game. The game advanced out of the random stage because of those of us who don't agree with self-voting and no-voting. MafiaMann's no vote also advanced the game because he is getting heat for not voting and then appeasing. If he's town, this is another distraction and not pro-town.

I'm attacking Ectomancer's tunnel vision, taking posts out of context, misrepresentation, case dodging, and apparent oblivion of my intent to vote him until I actually did at this point. I say "apparent oblivion" because I feel his reaction to my vote is contrived and meaningless.

For what its worth, I agree with you. There is something about Ecto that just doesn't sit right with me. I can't put a finger on it right now, and its possible its more of a gut feeling than based on actual evidence.

I hate to perpetuate the buzzword of the game: opportunistic. But, this could be interpretted as just that:

Backing Clock's case:

vote MafiaMann

However, this could be a slippery slope because where do you draw the line between what is opportunistic voting and what is legitimate pressure voting?

--------------------------

So I don't post content, yet you agree with my accusation? *boggle*.

The problem is, its not

your

accusation. This accusation was brought out on page 2 by muffinhead:

vote mafiamann , because not voting in the rv stage can be a scumtell. Therefore this is no random vote.

My problem was that you stepped in and made short, blunt comments that simply reiterated arguments that were already voiced without adding any new analysis, support, or defense. If you were on vacation, then I guess that makes sense. However, If you posted in other threads that you were on vacation, why not post here? It shouldn't be expected for me to have to go search the forums for an explanation as to why you might not be posting elaborate posts, and the way you said you were on vacation implies that I should have known:

As for the lurkerish comments, as I have stated in other threads I am on vacation,

Take note that you have just done what you accuse me of doing, except you threw more words in between the spaces. I personally don't have any problem with seeing people point out what they see is scummy over a mass of other players.

Not true. I gave my own take on my own suspisions, as well as presented some new ideas. Your post seemed like an exact regurgitation of thoughts that were already voiced. Again, if you were on vacation, I can see why your posts would have been like that. Of course, voice all of your suspisions. Thats the point of the game. Just make sure to offer new insight if your repeating an old suspision, and don't make it sound like you're just repeating what was already said. Like this:

Cass put it very well: Mafiamann's tactic is a tactic of appeasement. This, in my opinion, is one of the biggest scumtells, and deserving of my concentration.

^^^ that was much better than your 3 line post that I quoted before. Its an argument that was already made, but you're offering your own insight.

Rhinox, I would like to hear your opinions on

muffinman

, and hear those of muffinman on you. Notice that Muffin has not answered anything I said.

I'm not sure why you want to hear specifically from me about muffin... unless you mean MafiaMann... we have a mafiamann and a muffinhead... which are you referring to?

Muffin has actually done 3 things I'm not to fond of. First, calling himself IC when he's only been here since march. Second, calling out mafiamann for not voting and ignoring coug's self vote, and third, for trying to meta-defend coug. In fact, points 2 and 3 both point to a possible scum partnership between muffin and coug.

Mafia on the other hand has not done anything pro-town. He no-voted, he jumped on cougs bandwagon calling it random after he said he would vote clock, and his defenses since then have been... just pathetic. If I had to make a guess based on his comments, I would think he's more likely to be a predator-sk role, rather than a commando-scum role.

Until I hear from jonathan, however, my vote remains where it is.

[Rhinox]

EBWOP for clarification:

Second, calling out mafiamann for not voting and ignoring coug's self vote,

what I mean is, muffin called out mafiamann but completely ignored coug's self vote. Calling out mafiamann is not the problem - doing so while ignoring coug kinda is.

I'm in no way attacking muffin for this right now - he did already answer for it. Just saying its one of the things about muffin that I found unsettling.

[Rhinox]

Well after some research i did on the show Zaphod is the head meerkats husband if that means anything. if anyone else has a counterclaim go for it.

Zaphod WAS the dominant male until his mate Flower (the dominate female) was killed by a snake in season 2. Then iirc, Zaphod left the whiskers to become a full time roving male.

All mafiamann's claim provides is proof that we won't hit a power role by lynching him. I also think he was too eager to claim, which means I think he was planning on throwing out his safe claim and then assuming we would all smile and say "oh, ok" and go on our merry lynch mobbing way. I'd switch to vote for him, but I'm uncomfortable switching my vote until I hear from jonathan.

Clock, nice catch on jonathan not partaking in the random voting stage, or any voting whatsoever.

Also, to everyone, I see no reason to play nice with jonathan. No reason to say anything like "welcome to the game, please post content"... He's been a MS member for a year and a half which is more than most of us as far as I can tell - he knows full well how he should be participating. No need to ask nicely for content; Demand it!

[Rhinox]

Backing Clock's case:

vote MafiaMann
-------------------------------
An interesting point about Zaphod. I've always been a Whisker.
-------------------------------
unvote

vote ClockWorkRuse

I'm town, so I know what the town role PM looks like and MM has it exactly correct. (No surprise there, it's posted by the mod). ClockWork seems to either not be sure that is exactly how the town PM's look (meaning he is scum), or he is fishing for a Power Role (who else but scum?).

An interesting and contradicting line of posting there ecto. First, you back clock's case to vote for mafiamann, and then after mm claims, you turn around and attack clock with weak reasoning? *scratches head* We all know what a townie role PM looks like because its posted on the front page, and MM's claim contained no information that wasn't general information. Plain old powerless townie, or scum using a flavorless safe claim... either way, that claim is no good reason to back off the lynch. And I certainly don't follow the logic that leads from advocating a MM lynch to advocating a clock lynch. If anything, ecto is hunting power roles. MM has no power role, just move on and try to flush out another?

It also makes me uncomfortable that you've called yourself or implied that your town twice now without reason. Saying so is no proof that you are, and as such I see no reason to be going around calling yourself townie at every possible opportunity. In fact, the more you say it, the more it makes me tend to believe its not true.

IMO, MM was too eager to claim to come out with a simple townie defense. If MM is lynched and turns town, it would give me incentive to check into clock more. Except, MM hasn't provided one good reason NOT to lynch him, unless we accept the townie claim at face value. So I also understand why clock is so intent on offing MM. Regardless of if MM is scum or town, there is good reason to look further into ecto. If MM is town, theres a case to be made that ecto could be hunting power roles. If MM is scum, it seems like it was ecto's plan to pile on the bandwagon to make himself look good, then unvote. Unfortunately, ecto picked a weak reason to unvote, and an even weaker reason to turn around and attack clock (whom he was backing just 3 posts earlier).

Also, still waiting to hear from johnnyboy.

[Rhinox]

Not trying to take Rishi's job, but I think this is the current votecount:

MafiaMann – 4 (wolframnhart, ClockworkRuse, muffinhead, Bogre,

Ectomancer

)
ClockworkRuse – 3 (curiouskarmadog, +mafiamann, +ectomancer)
Ectomancer – 1 (StrangerCoug)
Bogre – 0 (

Cass

)
jonathantan86 – 2 (Rhinox, +Cass)

So that puts clock with 3 votes right now.

[Rhinox]

You're killing me here Rhinox. Go back and look at ClockWorks posts and see who is the one digging for Power Roles.

There is no more flavor in your pm in that? Nothing at all that might separate you from scum?

Well after some research i did on the show Zaphod is the head meerkats husband if that means anything. if anyone else has a counterclaim go for it.

That's not from your role PM, so no that doesn't help. And at this point a counter-claim could be very bad in my opinion.

Is there

any

flavor in your PM besides what you've posted?

Bolded by me.

You see, MM already claimed, and Clock is still voting MM. I interpret Clock pressing for more flavor as sort of saying "are you sure thats all you've got, because thats not enough of a reason to back off". I don't view looking for more flavor out of a claim as hunting for power roles - what I do view as hunting for power roles is looking for lots of role claims.

This isn't flip-flopping. This is going after scumtells. This is altering your theories based upon new evidence. I didnt like that little exchange by ClockWork with MafiaMann.....at all. It looks to me like he pressing MM to go ahead and reveal if he actually has a power, but wanted to hold back yet, OR, he is looking to see if there might be any extra flavor type addition to a traditional town role just in case.

That is kinda the point of a role claim. A last resort "look if you follow through with the lynch this is what you're losing".

Options:
-MM is scum, and can't come up with anything better than claiming normal townie role - lynch
-MM is normal townie, that is all he has to claim - probably lynch when there are no other options; not losing anything important, and we'll learn a lot based on the outcome.
-MM has a power he's not claiming. It would only make sense to not claim a power if it were a protector type role like doc, b/c any other role could be protected by a protector type role if one exists. The risk by not claiming the power is that claiming normal townie is not a good reason to back off unless there is someone else looking scummier, especially when you consider how scummy MM sounded with the no vote, opportunistic "random" and defense that he "couldn't spell right".

In addition, the example PM by the mod is for a vanilla townie. If ClockWork wants to claim a Power Role later (roleblocker for example) as scum, he would want to know how that flavor sounds from the mod prior to making his claim.

This actually makes some sense, but to use it to attack clock is a bit of circular reasoning (If clock is scum, he would want to know how power flavor sounds so he can use it to fake claim later. Clock is searching for extra flavor, so he must be scum looking for a way to fake claim a power role later on.) IMO, this is something to keep in mind for later in the game. Its not enough to warrent an FOS right now.

Now do you see why I found his hard pressing for more flavor suspicious enough for a vote? Weak reasoning? Go insult someone else.

Haha... nice try. I've seen this before. The more experienced scum player gets the newbie to back off by acting irritated, annoyed, and angry, telling the newbie to "shove off" so the newbie sheepishly backs off out of fear of suffering retribution from the big, bad, intimidating, more experienced player. Well I'm not intimidated, and its going to take more than an appeal to fear and emotions to get me to back off. Not saying thats absolutely what you're doing, but you're experienced enough to know there is no reason to feel "insulted" about a comment in a mafia game, and I'm smart enough to realize that.

How about this? MM claimed simple townie and now you're ready to let him off the hook that quickly, but it was unreasonable to let strangercoug off the hook because of the self vote. *contradiction*

I still see no reason why he should be given a free pass to make anti-town moves without being pressured as the very possible scum that he is.

How is it so much of a stretch for me to think that you're hunting for power roles. If you accept every claim as blindly as MM's, then we'll keep going until we force everybody to claim, and that would work out quite well for the scum now wouldn't it? Afterall, nobody is ever going to say "got me, I'm scum... lynch me".

I support the MM lynch because it seems like a good thing for the town. The worst thing a town can do D1 is pressure a power role into having to give himself up. We know MM is not a power role, and there's a good chance he's a lying scum. We made a good, smart pick by attacking MM. The only reason I'm not voting for MM right now is because jonathan, another experienced player, is doing an excellent job of lurking through D1 and i'm not going to give him a free pass to D2.

[Rhinox]

How many votes does ClockworkRuse have on him at this point?

Is there a reason you wanted to know this? It seems a little odd to make a post only to ask how many votes one player has when you can presumedly just count them yourself.

[Rhinox]

I think you have your blinders on because you are so focused on getting this first lynch over with. Chill out, scum hunting isn't over just because you think the day might be ending soon with a lynch.

Notice how I'm still voting jonathan because I want some signs of life, and I'm still pursuing other options as well (i.e. you.) Doesn't seem like I'm simply focused on getting this first lynch over with to me. I'm just not objecting to it if its going to happen. (Read: I think its a good lynch, but I'm by no means suggesting it is the only good play or the end of today's conversation - althought I think thats what you're trying to paint me as thinking.)

You

are being overly forgiving (he pressed twice for extra flavor, 'are you sure there's not some flavor??') for his behavior.

I'm not being overly forgiving because I'm not sure there is something to forgive. You certainly can't accuse me of being overly forgiving without admitting that you're being overly forgiving of MM's comments.

Personally, when my scum alarm goes off harder than it has the whole game, Im switching my vote, regardless of where my vote currently lies.

I'm just not sure your scum alarm should have been going off that hard. I don't agree with your justification for switching from MM to Clock. Your argument (that he's hunting for power roles) falls flat because from my point of view, your actions seem more consistent with power role hunting. (oh look, MM claimed and he's a simple townie. Lets move on and see if we can get someone else to claim.) Unless...

P.S. - role claims aren't about "this is what you might be losing". It's about whether you believe them or not PLUS the reactions of other players in the game.

...you can give me one good reason for believing MM's role claim.

[Rhinox]

@Rhinox: Today is not the time to lynch lurkers, imo...

[my ommision]

...I must say I've never seen the point in 'I'm voting you lurker answer now'. One vote is not too much pressure on a lurker, just more of a placeholder, imo.

Its not now nor has it ever been my intention to lynch the lurker. The reason for my vote is to try to force the player to participate with good content. A lurker at this stage of the game could be an SK type role trying to avoid saying anything that would make him suspisious, or a scum player sitting by if we're about ready to lynch a townie. Even if thats not the case, making sure all players participate now is important for future days so we can have reads on players and so we have information on record on which to compare to future posts for contradictions. IMO, its important to know everyone's posting style and ideologies as early as possible.

Ectomancer I believe is a good lynch for tomorrow. Look at how he jumps on Mafiamann's bandwagon with very little reasoning, then as soon as that is pointed out, he finds a weak, papery case to jump -off- the bandwagon and try to direct attention away from Mafman.

You speak as if you know and/or expect that we will lynch MM and he will definately be scum... because if MM is town then thats a good reason to NOT consider ecto for lynch. Regardless, as others have said, there is little reason to be talking about D2's lynch right now. Too much will happen between now and then that will change the status quo.

-----------------------------

Glad to hear from jonathan. I got some information so now I will...

unvote

But that doesn't mean to go back into hiding. I do disagree on a couple of your points:

Personally I don't understand why everyone is jumping on Mafiamann for voting for SC. AFAIK, during random voting people sometimes give nonsensical reasons. So Mafiamann saying that he can't spell "clock" is not a scum-tell to me. I also don't think that Mafiamann was opportunistic in starting a wagon--if he added a vote, it would only be the second (not counting SC's vote). If we go by Means, Motive, and Opportunity, he did not have the opportunity.

This would mean that I suspect all the people who say that MM is scum because of these things. (But this is only if I am right that the SC vote is not a scum-tell.)

A separate issue is Mafiamann's non-vote in the RV stage, which Rhinox says it's a scum-tell and with IMHO good reasons (he posted this in post 115). So voting for him based on this is acceptable, but not for the SC vote. (And yes, I know I did not vote during the RV stage.)

Here's the complete situation:

MM - im to lazy to random vote but if i did random vote id vote clock

muffin - vote mafiamann , because not voting in the rv stage can be a scumtell. Therefore this is no random vote.

*meanwhile, coug is getting pressured and voted due to self vote*

MM - vote:strangecougar

Happy

Wolframnhart

et al

- Vote mafiamann for originally saying he would vote clock, then once muffinhead says "not voting in rv stage can be a scumtell" you vote strangercoug instead with no real reason (jokewise or serious) other then to apparently make muffin "happy"

MM - Unvote

The strangecougar bandwagon took off to fast with to little substance to not be scum driven.

Clock - You realize of course that you were on this wagon. Please answer my question in my last post. What was your justification for voting Coug?

MM - it was arandom vote i didnt mean to make a wagon

Clock - You didn't make a wagon, you jumped onto one... ...Why Coug instead of me when you said that if you had to vote you would vote me?

MM - I couldnt speel your name

Everyone - Die Scum!

Let's count the scum tells:
1: not voting
2: opportunistic voting (jumping on SC and calling it random IS opportunistic)
3: appeasement (voting to make muffin happy
4: appeasement again (unvoting immediately after being questioned about voting SC)
5: illogical defense (calling the vote on SC random)
6: illogical defense again (saying he didn't want to start a wagon, when he was actually jumping on a wagon, not starting one)
7: illogical defense again (couldn't spell clock)

If you consider all of that in context, thats an awfully big hole that MM dug himself. It seems quite obviou to me why everyone is jumping on MM. What I want to know is why are you defending MM and then turning around and saying you're suspisious of everyone on the MM wagon? How do you think this will make you look if MM IS scum?

And I agree with Ectomancer that asking for flavour is very much like power role hunting.

I don't think asking for flavor is power role hunting. Looking back, if anything IS power role hunting, its the fact that clock asked MM to claim while MM was still only L-2? That seems to be a little pre-mature to be asking for a claim, even if MM was anxious to claim and asked if he should claim soon.

I would say yes, it would be good for you to claim soon. Plus, please add any flavor your pm might have because the rules state the scum have been given safe-claims.

Especially since MMs question "should I claim soon" was already answered better here:

It would be a good idea to consider claiming, but you don't have to just yet. You must claim at L-1 if you haven't yet.

However, the fact that clock still wants to lynch MM makes me think that he is not a scum that is power role hunting. Otherwise, he would have said he believes MM's claim so he could try to draw out a power role from another player. I still feel that this is only something to keep in mind for later. If we lynch MM today and he is town, then its more believable that clock COULD be power role hunting, but if MM is scum then that just about absolves clock of this accusation.

[Rhinox]

I found something interesting while formulating my last post...

vote:strangecougar

Happy

Anyone notice it?

strangercoug's name is "speeled" wrong in that post... quite ironic, considering the reason for not voting clock was that MM couldn't "speel" his name.

[Rhinox]

As I stated, I believe this is an attempt to make sure that when he finally claims (and possibly wanting to claim a power role), he wants as much information about any additional flavor that might not have made it into the sample PM as possible. Why? So that he doesn't make a stupid flavor mistake simply because he isn't sure what additional flavor a role other than vanilla might have.

I agree. This is a much more likely scenario than Clock trying to hunt out power roles. But again, if MM gets lynched and is scum, it mostly invalidates this argument.

[Rhinox]

whoa... I wake up this morning and find this?

ok, bad news first. Someones bound to point out at some point that I was defending clock earlier. I am very disappointed that clock ended up being a predator, and I understand that I could take some heat for defending him. I was wrong, ecto's suspisions, it seems, were justified.

on to the good news... I don't believe that we have 2 scum groups. I think we have 1 scum group (the commandos) and the predators (sk types). I just don't see predators working together if they have to compete over food, from a flavor POV. From the start of the game I've just assumed that predators were SK's - we just don't know how many. I'm thinking now that there are (were) possibly 2 predators, 1 day sk and 1 night sk - just like there are day predators and night predators irl. Which means, I don't think ecto was doing any bussing of clock.

[Rhinox]

Never even thought about predators myself, i was just worried about commandos, and now we have an SK type role too, and who knows how many there are in that group or in the commandos for that matter.

Uh... Wolf?

As the sun rises over the Kalahari, the Whiskers family has a busy day ahead. It will be rough foraging for millipedes and scorpions while the desert sun beats down on the defenseless meerkats. Even worse,

the meerkats constantly have to be on the lookout for vicious predators as well as the evil Commandoes

, a rival mob intent on taking over the burrow! But the Whiskers are strong and resilient. Stay alert.

Rishi directly told us we had predators to deal with. Are you trying to make us think you didn't know about predators so you could hide the fact that you're a predator?

I also think Rishi hinted to us that something could happen during the day...

It will be rough foraging for millipedes and scorpions

while the desert sun beats down

on the

defenseless

meerkats.

But

the Whiskers are strong and resilient.

Stay alert.

This tells me that during the day, we will be defenseless to attacks. However, we're strong and resilient. Maybe that was a hint to clock that if he picked the wrong meerkat to mess with, he'd be toast.

[Rhinox]

Thanks for all the unvotings.

Unvote

(My vote was on clock but now he's dead)

Let's count the scum tells:
1: not voting
2: opportunistic voting (jumping on SC and calling it random IS opportunistic)
3: appeasement (voting to make muffin happy
4: appeasement again (unvoting immediately after being questioned about voting SC)
5: illogical defense (calling the vote on SC random)
6: illogical defense again (saying he didn't want to start a wagon, when he was actually jumping on a wagon, not starting one)
7: illogical defense again (couldn't spell clock)

Just for the sake of clarification, I don't count 2 as a scumtell since I don't think he is "jumping" on SC. I posted that I don't consider illogical defence during RV a scumtell as well, but you may have a point that 5,6,7 are scumtells since he posted them *outside* the RV stage.

I don't think appeasement is a scumtell though...he might just have an important power role so he might not want to get involved in controversy. Having said that, he has just claimed that he is townie, so it *is* possible that 3,4 points towards him being scum.

There are good reasons to consider 1 a scumtell, yes.

If you consider all of that in context, thats an awfully big hole that MM dug himself. It seems quite obviou to me why everyone is jumping on MM. What I want to know is why are you defending MM and then turning around and saying you're suspisious of everyone on the MM wagon? How do you think this will make you look if MM IS scum?

I'm defending MM because I don't want a mislynch. Yes, I know what I would look like if MM is scum, but that doesn't mean that we should preserve our reputations at all costs.

Mafiamann looks very scummy indeed. Still, his meta is holding me back from the wagon for now, plus the fact I am in no hurry to end this day.

Um what is "his meta"?

I dont recall making these statements and I'm not on

heavy

drugs...so....

Yeah, I was the one who made both the posts you quoted to ecto, jonathan.

[Rhinox]

Thanks for all the unvotings.

Unvote

(My vote was on clock but now he's dead)

Let's count the scum tells:
1: not voting
2: opportunistic voting (jumping on SC and calling it random IS opportunistic)
3: appeasement (voting to make muffin happy
4: appeasement again (unvoting immediately after being questioned about voting SC)
5: illogical defense (calling the vote on SC random)
6: illogical defense again (saying he didn't want to start a wagon, when he was actually jumping on a wagon, not starting one)
7: illogical defense again (couldn't spell clock)

Just for the sake of clarification, I don't count 2 as a scumtell since I don't think he is "jumping" on SC. I posted that I don't consider illogical defence during RV a scumtell as well, but you may have a point that 5,6,7 are scumtells since he posted them *outside* the RV stage.

I don't think appeasement is a scumtell though...he might just have an important power role so he might not want to get involved in controversy. Having said that, he has just claimed that he is townie, so it *is* possible that 3,4 points towards him being scum.

There are good reasons to consider 1 a scumtell, yes.

If you consider all of that in context, thats an awfully big hole that MM dug himself. It seems quite obviou to me why everyone is jumping on MM. What I want to know is why are you defending MM and then turning around and saying you're suspisious of everyone on the MM wagon? How do you think this will make you look if MM IS scum?

I'm defending MM because I don't want a mislynch. Yes, I know what I would look like if MM is scum, but that doesn't mean that we should preserve our reputations at all costs.

That reminds me... you concede that all but 1 of my points are valid scum tells, but you still defended MM. There are more appropriate ways to avoid a "mislynch" or in this case a premature lynch other than defending that person. For example, holding back your vote and continuing today's conversation until a point where it becomes appropriate to hammer. I don't think you can say you're trying to avoid a mislynch if you're both defending someone and conceding that he's scummy. Thats kinda contradictory.

[Rhinox]

May I chime in and say that MafiaMann seems more like a VI, come to think of his death?

what was the point of this post at the beginning of Day 2....this almost has the feel of someone trying to defend their participation of a townie lynch..

or am I just reading into it?.

I wouldn't expect anyone on MM's lynch to have to defend themselves for it. MM played pretty scummy, and even self-hammered. Usually, I would expect a scum to be on a D1 lynch of a townie, but because MM was so suspisious and self hammered, its really impossible to tell for sure.

That being said, coug, is there a reason you might feel a need to justify and defend being on MM's lynch?

[Rhinox]

Stranger, I think there was a theory that Clock killed woodsman as an attempt to frame MM. Would make more sense that he was trying to frame someone else though, as MM was already going down. I should reread everyone in isolation, maybe there is some manipulation to be found.

I agree with you here. I think the most likely probability is that clock targeted woodsman because he was newest into the game and there was close to zero chance that the kill could possibly be linked back to clock. Unfortunately for clock, woodsman was a pretty tough meerkat. I don't think there is too much to learn from this kill because both the target and the killer are dead, and to the best of our knowledge, the killer was working alone as a SK. Case most likely closed.

I'm also finding myself exremely annoyed with MM's self hammer. I would have had a hard time believing that 6 protown players lynched a 7th town player without scum help. I would expect a scum or sk to be on that lynch. But with only 5 players on the lynch because of the self hammer, and 4 not (and MM's VI playstyle), I can't say with any confidence that a scum HAD to be on MM's lynch.

[Rhinox]

EBWOP:

I agree with you here

that it doesn't make any sense that clock was trying to frame MM

.

Fixed.

[Rhinox]

I know conversation is slow, but aren't you awfully opportunistic today?

Unvote if necessary
Vote: Cass

Coug, someone might say the exact same thing about this post of yours.

There are good reasons to be pressuring Bogre today, and Cass was one of the first to call him out today. Its not opportunistic, its a good vote imo.

If theres one thing I hate, its seeing votes thrown out for blanket categorical reasons (opportunistic, hypocrasy, bad logic, overdefensive, etc...) without any explanation or supporting argument. You basically jumped in and posted "you're being opportunistic, Vote: ..."

FoS: coug

Explain why you think Cass's vote is opportunistic, and why your vote on Cass isn't.

[Rhinox]

For a vote not to be opportunistic in my eyes, I need the reasons or where I can get them in front of my nose when I see the vote. It's me.

Cass gave plenty of reasons for her vote, as already explained. Either you're not reading the thread, or you just selectively missed them. Either way, her reasons are much more justified than you calling her opportunistic. Yes, I'm accusing you of hypocrasy.

These two posts are raising red flags where I'm sitting:

You see how much clarification helps, Cass?

I'll go ahead and look at Bogre.

Unvote: Cass

in the meantime.

Bogre's post in isolation reveal that his 11th post is an attempt to line up lynches, which is not a good thing. The fact that his twelfth post has a defense starting with "It might be WIFOM" is leading me to disbelieve said defense.

Vote: Bogre

These two posts seem both like appeasement and opportunism. First, you're taking heat for weakly voting cass, so you unvote quickly. Then, you justify your vote on Bogre with an argument that was made in the last couple pages. It also tells me you're possibly not doing a good job in reading the thread. That case against Bogre has been around for a little while now, and just now you're deciding its scummy enough to vote? After you accused Cass of opportunisticly voting for Bogre? It seems very fishy to me.

I think Bogre has a lot to explain right now, but I also think Coug's lastest posts are very suspect. I'm not sure if you're play is wholly consistent with scum play, but its suspect enough to deserve a vote imo.

vote: StrangerCoug

[Rhinox]

To be all honest i think im beginning to lose intrest in this game so I will try to keep up as much as posible and try not to e a lurker as I personally hate them

FoS: muffinhead

This looks to me as you're just trying to find an excuse to be able to lurk without being questioned for it. If your loss in interest in the game is affecting your activity, you need to ask for a replacement. You don't get a pass to be less active or lurk just because you're becoming uninterested in the game.

I'm also curious as to why you're unable to see the case against Bogre? If you want quotes of his scumminess, just look through Page 11 shortly after D2 started, specifically looking for a post from wolf where he laid the whole thing out. It sounds like you might be trying to defend Bogre too much and its something I'll remember if at some point Bogre shows up scum. Its one thing to disagree with the case against him, its something completely different to say you don't see a case at all and to go after coug for voting him.

[Rhinox]

unvote: strangercoug

because although he was possibly unfairly targetting Cass, for now I can accept that it was an honest mistake because I think both Bogre and Muffin are good potential scum targets. Bogre especially isn't looking very good at the moment, and if at some point we find out bogre is scum, it might be good to strongly consider muffin as a scum partner.

However, CKD, I'm not sure I like this post of yours...

To be all honest

I find that people who tend to use this phrase are scum.

unvote, vote Muffin.

have you not been honest about other things?

Unless you are not fluent in the english language, you would know "To be honest" is a common figure of speech that maybe shouldn't be used as much as it is because the literal implication is that you have not been honest. Its like if someone asks you "Do you like football?" and you answer "Honestly, I'm more of a hockey fan." That example wouldn't make me wonder what you were lying about, and just the same, I don't think that particular phrase makes muffin a liar either.

Actually, I think that was a very weak and opportunistic reason for voting muffin... After muffin was taking heat, but early enough to vote without being accused of just jumping on a wagon.

Vote: CKD

because we're not only hunting scum... there are potentially more predator roles out there, and if Bogre and Muffin do happen to be scum together, I could see CKD filling in as a predator role quite nicely. And I'm actually more worried about predators than I am the commandoes. Daykills are scary and unpredictable.

[Rhinox]

this is not the first time I have caught scum using this subconcious slip AND it is not the first time I have commented on this particular phrase or phrases of the like..."to be honest", "in all honesty", "Honestly I have never...", or my favorite "to tell the truth".

But dont take my word for it I can supply you with 2-3 games (they should be completed) that scum have used those terms..

That may be so, but it hardly proves that everytime that phrase is used, its coming from a scum. Also, I disagree that it is a slip, because its such a commenly used phrase that is meant to add emphasis and validity to a statement.

it is a slip...keep in mind I also caught Clock on a scum slip too...

Do tell, what was said slip? I read through your posts and I couldn't figure out what you're referring to. But I did find you expressing suprise and confusion after clock's death:

woah so what just happened?...so was Clock part of the mafia or something else? (confused)..like a SK maybe?

I am noting this attack or defense....there is no bandwagon on Muffin..just FoSes..the current vote leaders are coug and Bogre...so I am being oppertunistic by jumping off the leading bandwagon?

Well, you were voting for coug. Coug was getting overshadowed by Bogre and muffin as far as scumminess goes. I also never said there was a bandwagon. I said you saw an opportunity to throw your vote in early after muffin received 3 FoS's, so you couldn't be accused later on of jumping on his wagon if some of those FoS's started turning into votes.

Also, don't think I'm defending muffin here. I'm questioning you for your justification behind your vote.

Also you think my vote was just solely on that?...funny you didnt ask before you attacked/defended Muffin.

So what, we're suppose to read your mind? The only other time you mentioned muffin in your posts was when you questioned him for calling himself the most experienced way back at the beginning of the game. If you have more on muffin, please do tell.

unvote

for now, but still IGMEOY...

================================================

@ jonathen and Rhinox- What makes you think that me and bogre are scumpartners?

I never said that I definately thought the 2 of you were scum partners - I said that your post defending bogre was questionable and if bogre ends up being scum, I would consider that as evidence pointing to the two of you as scum partners. But that doesn't mean I've connected your fates together. This was the post I was referring to:

Im trying to understand the bogre case and i would like to request quotes of his scumminess if you want me to even consider joining the wagon. I would like to hear from bogre defend him self again.

First, you say you never saw any examples of Bogre being scummy and ask for quotes, even though they had already been provided by wolf and commented on by ecto and others since D2 began.

What I missed the first time is, why are you asking for Bogre to defend himself again if you don't even see a case for him to defend against? This is quite contradictory. Care to explain?

================================================

@ecto: you still here? What do you think about the latest conversations regarding bogre and muffin?

@Bogre: its been nearly a week since you've posted anything. if you think the accusations against you are unfair, you need to explain why. Not posting at all is a good way to get yourself lynched.

[Rhinox]

Rhinox, I remember early in my mafia “career” someone attacked someone for using the “to be honest” phrase. I thought much like you did, and attacked that person (so I guess, I understand where you are coming from.) The person in question came up scum, so I made mental notes to see if scum typically use that phrase. Out of the 5 times I have seen it, 4 of the times they were scum…the 1 time, it was a townie that had faked claim (don’t even get me fucking started on that game)…so from my point of view, it is a tell.

ok... I don't have the experience like you do, but I can see why you would call it a tell. Rest assured, every future game I play I will be looking to see who uses that phrase and they're allignment. Maybe I'll come to view it as a legitimate tell, or maybe not. But I no longer think its a scummy move to attack muffin for that.

Post 65 (in reference to clock)…he was asking questions that were utterly ridiculous, in an attempt to look more townie…not sure how you missed that when you pulled my other quotes.

Oh... well I did see that, but you said you caught clock on a "slip". Maybe you meant tell. Anyways, yeah I did see that, I just didn't consider it a slip.

@Muffin:

Now as a summary i am losing intrest in this game and this will most likly be my last game on ms while I have a break. Well actully i will mod a game then leave as thats what ive always wanted to do. Now i would like to go out in fassion with a win which is why i havnt decided to be replaced. But when you just dont have that intrest in the game its hard to find scum and help so if im lurking and looking scummy then I do apologies for letting the town down but it still means im here and I will help to the best that i can do.

If you're not interested in playing the game or trying to catch scum, then as far as I'm concerned your a useless liability to my win condition. Sorry if that sounds harsh, but I want to win to, and I don't want someone in my town who doesn't care about the game.

Vote: Muffin

Even if you really are a townie, I don't think we'll lose anything by your death. Also, you never answered my question as to what you think Bogre should defend himself against if you never saw a case against him.

@ecto:

You defended Clock rather strongly. I'm not questioning you because he turned up scum, I'm questioning because nobody should have had any idea of what his alignment would be. I know one scum tactic is to defend a townie against an attack, because when they turn up town, you of course were the wiser. It makes them much less likely to go against your "judgement" later.
Tell me why I should not believe this to be your motivation earlier. Clock turned up SK (we think), but as scum, you would have been just as likely to believe him town and would have acted accordingly.

First let me say that I have a tendency to go after questionable accusations, and I realize that is usually viewed as defending the player that was accused. I didn't like how first you sided with clock to vote mafiamann and then after mafia's claim turned around to attack clock. You explained why you did and I understand now, and I won't hold it against you if you think i am scummy for defending clock.

What I will say is that I don't think defending a player is always scummy, especially if i had a good reason to do so (which I think I did at the time). Your accusation against me is that defending a player is always scummy, because either I was defending my scum partner if clock was scum, or I was defending (who I thought was) a townie in order to give myself credibility. Of course, I could have avoided this situation by not saying anything at all, but is it really fair to put me in a position where its scummy for me to have defended clock regardless of whatever his role could have been?

Another thing to consider is that if I wanted to defend a townie to make myself look good, wouldn't it have been better for me to defend Mafiamann since he was already going down fast? Its a little WIFOMish, but I don't see why defending clock because I think he's town to make myself look good does me any good if I didn't know when or if he was going to die, so I could point out "look I was defending a townie, I told you so". I think it would lose its affect if he would have died 3 days from now, and I think me saying "look I'm town because I defended a townie D2" 3 days from now would probably get me lynched. But of course, this defense goes out the window if you assume I had killing powers and planned on killing clock last night. *sigh*

I guess what you have to decide is do you think I was really trying that type of gambit, or do you think its more likely I was questioning your justification for your accusations on clock? Another thing I hope makes me look a little better is that I just did the same thing regarding CKD and muffinhead, and that was before you even questioned me. I hope that goes to show that it is just my style of play to go after someone when I think they're using bad, weak, or hypocrital cases to justify an argument or vote.


Also, as a general notice:

I'm going to be out of town until monday and won't be able to post again until I get back Monday afternoon.

[Rhinox]

Ok I'm now back to regular participation in the thread.

From what i can tell, not much has happened to change the status quo while I was away, but I will make a couple of comments.

That was a good answer directed to me. I did take exception with the following statement from the previous paragraph because it is inherently untrue:

Even if you really are a townie, I don't think we'll lose anything by your death.

Of course we lose something. This is a game of numbers, and any that we lose from our column is a bad deal for us.

Yeah... to be politically correct, I should have worded it like this: "Muffin, there is a good chance you are scum and I'm confident with my vote on you, but if you really are town, it won't be as bad of a hit to the town since you are uninterested and unwilling to seek a replacement."

I know losing town roles is always bad, but what I meant was that losing some town players hurt less than losing other players, and losing an uninterested less active townie player imo hurts less than losing an active town player who got lynched for a bad comment.

Claim or die, muffinhead.

For some reason this comment doesn't it right with me. I guess its because I'm so conditioned that asking for claims is sorta bad. Also, I know I'm still voting for muffin and I won't lose sleep if he is lynched, but I think we should wait for a hammer until we here from bogre or his replacement. (for the record, I hate replacements because they are usually able to get off the hook too easily.)

@Bogre: show up, dammit! We need to hear your opinion on Muffin, your defense of yourself and some general involvement in the game.

At this rate, you're going to be tomorrow's lynch - but if you'd only post, you could easily save yourself.

(Assuming you're town, of course. If you're scum, keep lurking .)

Bolded by me for emphasis. I'm not sure I like the sentence I bolded for 2 reasons: 1, you're kind of lining up your vote for tomorrow (assuming muffin gets lynched) - sort of a "pre-approved" reason for throwing out an early vote. 2, If all bogre has to do to easily save himself is post

something

, I don't see why you would be lining him up for tomorrow's lynch. Are you saying we should lynch bogre just because he's lurking (at this point, inactive?). If you think the case against him can easily be defended if he just showed up to post, is it really a case worth lynching him for?

From where I'm sitting right now, Bogre has to come up with a pretty good defence for the accusations against him earlier today before I would start to drop him down lower on my list of potential scums - I wouldn't use the term "save himself" because a lynch is not yet threatening.

A theory I'm going to keep tucked in the back of my head is that Cass could be scum with Bogre. Cass voted bogre to show him that she does not approve of the way he is playing or to make herself look better if/when bogre is lynched and shows up scum. This last post of Cass's almost reads to me like "C'mon bogre, post anything so I can justify unvoting you and hammering muffin"

But for now this is just a theory without any real supporting evidence.

@jonathan: I agree with ecto and CKD that your recent comments seem a bit scummy. From what I can see, you didn't vote for anyone D1, and you're only voting for Bogre now so you can't be accused of not voting anyone today. well, you did put a "tentative" vote on clock, but you even worded that so you could easily back out.

Its possible that neither muffin nor bogre are scum, and that you're hoping someone will hammer muffin, but if that doesn't happen, you're getting on the less popular of the 2 current wagons since its likely that could be where the focus would shift if muffin doesn't get lynched. Its also possible you could be a second sk/predator role, helping along a wagon but giving yourself room to get off if it loses momentum.

================================================

Regarding the setup: I've never muched liked speculating what the setup could be.. but since others have thrown out ideas I thought i would add mine. My first thought, based on the flavor of the original mod posts, was that there was 1 commando scum group of two, and 2 separate individual predators (sk roles).

Based on game events so far, its possible the predator roles were 1 day/1 night sk, or 1 even day/1 odd day sk. The former means there should have been 2 kills last night, and the latter means we should not be suprised by a day kill today.

The only reason I'm saying this is because I want to explain that/why I'm still sk-predator hunting. I just don't think we should discount that there could be another predator out there just because we won't know for sure until kills start showing up. Anyways, I don't think it hurts to be on the lookout for possible tells now that we could point out if/when that kill shows up, rather than having going back to look for tells later on after the fact.

I just don't want us to be caught off guard if there is another predator-sk. Better to assume there is and be wrong, than assume there isn't and possibly miss tells.

[Rhinox]

Hey Vi! I know I usually hate replacements into games, but since we had to have one, I'm glad its you. (I also know how you play, so its going to be an extremely fun game from here on out).

Without going back to find tons of quotes and fill a huge wall, I'll briefly summarize by saying I'm very comfortable with Vi/Bogre based on Vi's initial post. Bogre did say and do some scummy and contradicting things, but in the back of my head I felt it might have been because he didn't want to put in a full diligent effort into the game. His inactivity supports that reasoning, and I'm looking forward to getting a new read on the player slot based on Vi's play.

I'm also not ready to let muffin off the hook. Its true that I expressed an oppinion that muffin and borge could be scum partners, but that was not my reason for voting. It was also conditional to Bogre dying and being scum. If at some point Vi dies and is scum (and muffin is still around) I'll reconsider the possibility that muffin and Vi are partners together, but right now there is no (rather, very little) reason to suspect Vi and as such no reason to call Vi and muffin scum partners - but that doesn't mean muffin can't be scum (for the record, it also doesn't mean I would consider Vi as muffin's scum partner if muffin dies and is scum - muffin defended bogre, not the other way around).

The reason my vote is staying with muffin is because he basically told us "I'm not interested in the game, and because of that I can't really scum hunt, and by the way I'll probably be a bit inactive, but I'm trying not to lurk, because I want to go out with a bang and win one with the town, so I'm not going to ask for a replacement."

He is a liability. Yeah, he could be a "number" for the town, but what good is that number really? I don't see any scum or sk killing muffin, so if it does get late in the game and muffin is still around in his current form, its likely he could be a lynch choice in a LyLo situation, and the actual scum would be able to get a pass. Besides, there is a good chance muffin is scum anyways - I'm not just voting for him because he is the least helpful.

================================================

I'm actualy slightly suspisious of Ecto for wanting to keep muffin around. I think a good move for a scum or SK would be to keep a scummy looking townie around as long as possible for the reasons I stated above, and then if at some point muffin were to die he could say he was right for not lynching him. At the very least, ecto could be doing the exact same thing he accused me of doing about "defending" clock.

However, I would also expect a scum or SK to be hammering muffin if muffin were townie, and ecto is NOT doing that by trying to keep us from hammering muffin. So, the only conclusion I can draw right now is that I'm uncomfortable about ecto, but the evidence for a case is lacking.

================================================

I also feel that Cass is trying to backpedal out of the muffin case a bit. After saying this:

QFT. Based on the claim, I'll decide if I want to hammer.

and me planting an idea that Cass wanted Bogre to say anything so she could justify unvoting and hammering muffin, she says:

I also want to be honest and say I still have my reservations about the muffin lynch. While he is definitely scummy, a) I have the same issue Vi mentions - a large amount of players that set of alarms in my head, making me doubt that I'm looking at the right one, and b) I don't really like Vi painting Muffin as a good 'utility lynch'. Not because it isn't true, it just feels off, coming from him. That combined with me pursuing the Bogre lynch for a long time... well, I'll just keep an eye on him I guess.

@Muffin: please claim. Especially if you're town. Extra especially if you have information for town.

Before muffin even claimed, she is already submitting that she might have a problem hammering. Also unsettling is that Cass is asking for the second time for muffin to claim (note: muffin is still inactive, and would presumedly read all the requests to claim - no need to keep demanding it) and what is especially concerning is that Cass is specifically asking for information that would help the town that would presumedly only come from a power role. This is basically the same thing Clock did by asking for "more flavor".

================================================

@wolf: ckd and Vi are absolutely right and I was thining the exact same thing as I read down through the posts. Why would you have expected Vi to hammer muffin in his first post into the game? And why is is suspisious for him to not do so? I don't think Vi was being contradictory at all, and I think its unfair for you to accuse him so.

That being said, Vi, be careful when you say things like this:

Oh, and I'm not one to FoS people. If I don't like what you're doing, I'll say so, and you'll know it. At length.

Remember, Cass and I can easily go Meta you and show examples of you using FoS's. But for the record, everyone, he's not lying about the "at length" part

================================================

So right now, I have some uneasy opinions towards a number of players, but the cases depend on first knowing more information about other players roles (i.e. players have to die) before they begin to build any legitamacy. Thats one more (small) reason why I'm still very comfortable in lynching muffin. However, I sort of feel it would be better for the game and for the town if we could just get a replacement for him. It wouldn't be ideal if we lynched him and he is town, but at the same time, I don't think we can afford to have a dead weight anchor around who doesn't want to scum hunt and wont be active and just wants to be able to say "I won" at the end of the game without providing any effort whatsoever. I also don't agree that we could just blindly accept his townie claim if he isn't going to actively try to help the town.

So my ultimatum would read like this:

Muffin, start being actively protown, get replaced, or die for asking permission to be a lurker.

And I swear to god if you self hammer (and you're town) I'm going to reach through this computer monitor and punch you in the nose


P.S. Vi, if only Rishi would get soulmonarch to replace in for muffin, this would really turn into one hell of a game, don't you think?

[Rhinox]

something about this statement doesnt sit right with me. if muffin is a townie, how do you know that the SK (if we have another) or scum are not already on the wagon?

That was sort of an implied message in my post... The fact the no one is eager to hammer makes me want to think that scum (and sk) are either already on the wagon, or...

It is actually a WIFOM statement though, even still. An SK or scum could just as easily be wanting to avoid the scrutiny that can come from being the hammer vote against a townie.

...exactly ^^that^^ too.

Also ecto, you don't need to outright defend a player to find a reason to justify keeping a scummy looking townie around as a scapegoat for later on. However, how about you tell us why we

shouldn't

lynch muffin (other than because he and bogre aren't looking like scum partners - because I'm not sure anyone used only that to justify their vote on him) rather than asking us to re-justify our votes (even though a number of us already had by the time you even asked). Also:

Asking for someone to re-evaluate their case based upon latest trends is a fine hair from defending the target of the case.

Questioning an accuser for what I feel is a bad argument is a fine hair from defending the target of the accusation, but it is still often interpretted as defending the player. Sometimes even the most subtle defenses are overlooked at the time, and only later the epiphany is made that "oh, he was actually defending that player there...". I just like to make sure I leave no stones un-turned.

To that end, I agree with Ectomancer 348 that Rhinox's attempt to pin the tail on the scummy is WIFOMtastic - that Ectomancer looks bad in his analysis regardless of whether he hammers or not (and whether he's scum or not).

No, no, no don't misinterpret my comments. I believe I said exactly...

So, the only conclusion I can draw right now is that I'm uncomfortable about ecto, but the evidence for a case is lacking.

I was never trying to pin ecto as scummy no matter what, and I agree that its entirely WIFOM which is why I said about ecto and others...

but the cases depend on first knowing more information about other players roles (i.e. players have to die) before they begin to build any legitamacy.

Don't misinterpret me suggesting what

could

be with what definately

is

. And just because I can imagine Ecto being scum based on a number of different outcomes doesn't mean I would use that circumstantial evidence to justify a vote or call for a lynch - at least not until much later in the game if there is nothing better to go on.

So to summarize, any case I see against ecto right now is in the back of my mind until anything happens to corroberate any theory, My ultimatum towards muffin still stands, and Cass us making me the most nervous based on recent comments.

@wolf:

@Rhinox

@wolf: ckd and Vi are absolutely right and I was thining the exact same thing as I read down through the posts. Why would you have expected Vi to hammer muffin in his first post into the game? And why is is suspisious for him to not do so? I don't think Vi was being contradictory at all, and I think its unfair for you to accuse him so.

It's not that I was expecting Vi to hammer, it's the fact that he had gone ahead and said he was ok with muffin being lynched, made a case against muffin, implied a few others are scummy to him, then told Jon:

By not committing to a vote and position on who you want lynched, you're never taking a stand, but willing to do whatever won't get you in trouble.

So Vi was also not taking a stand on a vote on who he wanted lynched and I was just asking why because it seemed contradictory to me.
But Vi has already explained why he didn't vote on anyone just yet and I am satisfied with the answer.

I'm satisfied with this answer.

[Rhinox]

Mod: status on the muffin prod?

Picked up.

Damn... I was thinking about unvoting while muffin was being prodded so he wouldn't get lynched before a possible replacement came in. But now that he picked up his prod and yet still no post... that sucks. I feel I can't just let him off the hook now because that would be sanctioning his lurking/inactivity, however, I'm less confident in the possibility that he is actually scum. However, I still feel very strongly that having a useless anchor in the town is no good (whats the odds of us having a vig who could take out muffin tonight ) and the only thing we would lose by lynching muffin is a day and a number if muffin is town. However, why hasn't/won't muffin just try to save himself or claim? Thats what everyone seems to be waiting for.

Won't you feel stupid if you hammer and he turns out to be a cop? (For example, obv.) For that reason, I do ask you to wait until Muffin has been online at least (or gets replaced).

No, I wouldn't feel stupid, I would feel like we were screwed for having a flakey player as our cop, and I would feel at fault any more than I would blame whoever threw the hammer. Also, muffin said he was losing interest in the game. Power roles tend to retain interest because the player is excited to have something to do at night. Vanilla roles are the roles players typically lose interest in. Which means, I've just provided another reason to doubt that muffin is actually scum. :/

Simply leaving Muffin's case out there to be utilized at the proper moment without clearing it up here and now is a poor choice for us. What would I recommend we do instead? Wait for the claim in Muffinhead's case. He is at L-1 on what I believe I have demonstrated is a case that isn't as lock down as the confidence I'm seeing displayed would merit. So I would also like to hear once again who is still supporting that case in light of what I had to say. The purpose of that is to make people commit to their opinions.

I'm not actually sure how to take this statement. I can read two distinct messages in here, and they are slightly contradictory.

First message: Muffin is at L-1, but we can't just let him off the hook now because if he's town, the scum could use the "utility lynch" potential later in the game to their advantage. Even if I [ecto] don't think he's a locked down scum, he needs to claim and we may still need to follow through with the lynch depending on the claim.

Second message: I [ecto] do not agree that muffin is scum, and I want those who do support the lynch to justify and get locked into their decisions so they'll have to explain why they wanted so strongly to lynch a townie (if muffin is town).

I agree 100% with the first message (if I interpretted correctly). That is why I feel muffin needs to go if he's going to continue to play like this. The second part I don't so much agree with because it seems to be setting up attacks on those of us who want to lynch muffin if muffin turns up town. Its almost as if in one breath you're saying we can't let muffin off the hook (so the votes need to stay for now) but in the next breath you're saying you don't think there is a case strong enough to lynch (so we shouldn't be voting for muffin).

I'll stay in Iraq for 100 years if...err..

ooooh! good one. I take it you're not a McCain supporter (neither am I)

As for jonathan, I'm still worried about him as well, but I was actually starting to forget about him. (eeek!, I almost said "honestly, I was starting to forget about him" [/joke]) I do think jonathan deserves a bit more scrutiny than what he has been getting, but so far others have been painting themselves as better targets and jonathan has been avoiding heavy investigation by being less scummy (not protown though). I'm curious to hear jonathan respond to Vi-362. I think Vi brought up some very good points.

Summary: I'm less confident that muffin might be scum than I was a day or 2 ago, but I don't want to reward his lurking/inactivity by unvoting. But I also feel that muffin is at a "safe" L-1 in that I don't think anyone will hammer at this point until muffin gives a final defense and is group-discussed. I still feel muffin is useless and a liability in his current form, but I would welcome a replacement or muffin showing interest again as a best case scenario.

[Rhinox]

[edit] Yossarian
Zaphod's younger brother, Yossarian is named after the main character in Catch 22 and has a scar across his left eye, possibly from when he was dropped on his head by a bird of prey as a pup. In the third episode of the series, the narrator states that Yossarian was once Flower's mate and the dominant male of the Whiskers, but Zaphod dethroned him before the series started.[15] The Meerkat Manor: The Story Begins film states that Yossarian and Zaphod were once roving Lazuli males. Yossarian became the dominant male of the Whiskers when Flower's sister was the dominant female, and then left the group when Flower assumed the role.[14]

Noted as having "some social problems"[15] and being a trouble-maker

, Yossarian initiated two burrow moves while babysitting twice in the first series, but both were badly handled.[15] The first attempt resulted in a lot of confusion amongst the babysitters, resulting in the eight newborn pups Yossarian dragged out of the burrow being partially trampled and almost left to die in the desert sun.[15] One of the other babysitters was able to restore order and get the pups to the burrow. A few days later he tried again. This time the babysitters joined him, but as they carried the newborn pups to a new burrow, they passed the main group and Flower and Zaphod ran after them. To avoid Flower's wrath, Yossarian dropped the pup of Mozart that he was carrying and slunk off. The pup died as a result and the

rest of the Whiskers temporarily ostracised Yossarian for the havoc wrought by these moves.

[25] Yossarian's attempt to help Daisy by carrying her newborn pups to the Whiskers burrow separated him from the family.[19] He also rescued one of Flower's pups in the second series after the young pup had wandered too far from the safety of the burrow.[26]

During the second series, Yossarian began a more concerted effort at finding a mate of his own, and

possibly taking over leadership in another group.

He made three unsuccessful attempts to reach Cazanna, the dominant female of the Lazuli, after the death of her mate Big Si.[27][28][29] Nevertheless, he was able to successfully mate with evicted Lazuli female Pancake.[27] Late in the second series,

Yossarian left the Whiskers to become a full-time roving male.

[30] He has not appeared in the series since.

I'm not sure how much if anything at all to try to deduce from knowing something about Yassarian, but in the show, he was not very helpful to the whiskers. He was a troublemaker with social problems, he got some pups killed, and he left the whiskers to attempt to mate with females from enemy neighboring meerkat groups, all before finally abandoning the whiskers all together never to return.

The problem I'm having is that I don't believe muffins claim, because I don't believe a cop would play that poorly. And if muffin is a cop, I'm disappointed he let it come to this. I'm also not sure I agree with investigating Cass night 1. I think there were probably much better targets for investigation.

Also whats interesting is based on the Wiki article, I got the impression that Yosarian was a bit insane. Muffin

could

be an insane cop, but that would mean Cass is scum. Does anyone know if we lynch muffin an he is a cop, will we be told of his sane-ness or will it just say "Cop". I have a hard time believing "Yossarian" to be a sane cop based on his character description - but then again, I know you can't jump to conclusions based on the character name because sometimes role doesn't follow the character description (for example, I think I read somewhere of a disney mafia game where dopey from the 7 dwarves was the mafia godfather).

If you dont believe me then just give me another day, or let me be nked.

If we give you another day, will you participate? You're not necessarily going to be nked, and if you're alive, you're not necessarily going to be able to investigate anyone. If we don't lynch you today, what are you going to do to convince us not to lynch you tomorrow if you're not nked? In other words, what are you going to do to show us that you're worth keeping around?

@Cass:

Hm, great...

I propose we let him live for now. That will at least improve the amount of information we gain from next night.

This is a tough spot for you to be in, eh cass? If you're town, you can't just believe muffin's claim because he would know you're not his scum partner. If you're scum, you would want to keep muffin alive because if he's killed, his sanity could be revealed. And if you're both scum, muffin's claim is a potentially brilliant gambit that will make one of you look good if the other dies.

One question for you though... How will leaving muffin alive improve the amount of information we gain next night?

@Jonathan:

Reasons: a spurious vote on Ectomancer and his "ignorance" of the case on bogre, and now his lurking (well, he has just come back to post).

Do you stil feel this way? what do you feel about muffins claim? You posted well after his claim, but didn't comment on it at all. Do you still want to vote for muffin?

I FoS because I wasn't quite sure. About hinting that I have a scumbuddy on the wagon, if that were true (and if I were scum) I wouldn't have wanted to draw attention to that; I could have just put suspicion on SC.

I'm not sure about this... first you say...

I think some mafia are on the wagon.

And your reason is...

because it may make them look good if SC dies and turns out to be part of the mafia.

Logically, it follows that you're already assuming SC is scum, because any of his scum partners who may be bussing him would KNOW already that SC is scum. But you just claimed you weren't sure about SC, hence the FoS only. If you weren't sure about SC, your logic that some mafia are on the wagon falls apart. What I'm seeing, and maybe this is what Vi was trying to say, is that possibly you know everyone on the SC wagon was townie (which makes sense if you're scum), but you wanted us to think someone on the wagon was scum so we would try to get one or more of them lynched. Or possibly, you're another sk predator, and you don't care who is town or mafia as long as someone other than you is getting pressured/lynched. Basically, this post of yours was a discreet way of FoSing 5 people at one time, without having to expicitly state it. The 4 people voting for SC, and SC himself.

[Rhinox]

Keeping him alive is useful because we get another investigate. If he's town, this is obviously good. if he is scum, we could still get some interesting responses from people. The scenario I fear is this: we lynch him. He flips town cop. I am now confirmed innocent. I am NK-ed. That leaves the town two people less and no information richer.

The point I'm trying to make is we're not sure he'll get another investigation. If there is a mafia roleblocker, the cop is done unless we lynch the blocker. If there is no blocker, but we have a doc, we might get more investiations, but there is no guarentee. If our doc gets nked, or lynched (or has to claim at L-1) then we lose the doc and the cop anyways.

If we lynch muffin and he is a cop, yes that confirms you as innocent, but you're not necessarily going to be the nk if we have a doc. A bad situation is that we leave muffin alive and he starts feeding us more investigation results that we are not sure we can believe. I'm almost leaning towards leaving him alive one more night to see if he can give us one more investigation "result" tomorrow, and then policy lynching for the information we get from the two results (presumedly, 2 confirmed townies). And, if he can investigate scum tonight, that might just save his life.

However, as other have expressed, I don't believe his claim at all. Plus, he claimed and then disapeared again. And I don't like how he said "roving male (aka cop)" like roving male automatically means cop. But, whats the worst thing that could happen if we leave him alive? he gives us another innocent tomorrow, we policy lynch, and then we don't have 2 confrimed innocents. We lynch him today and he's scum, we don't have 1 confrimed innocent. He manages to get an investigation and finds scum, we get to kill a scum AND keep our cop a while longer.

However, I am kind of worried about one thing. If he is an sk-predator. He asked us to give him one more night, maybe so he could make a kill tonight? That only makes sense if his target was doc-protected night 1. Do we give him the chance to take one of us out before he goes?

Right now I'm 50/50 on lynching him/letting him live, so I'm going to leave my vote where it is. If someone really feels he needs to die, I won't object to a hammer.

==================================================================

@jonathan: I liked your post 382, except for 2 points. Zaphod was a roving male in the show, but we were never told any flavor in the game that he was a roving male, so we can't just say 1 roving male had no powers, so neither would the other.

Also, this sentence:

I'm willing to hammer if the others think it's a good idea.

I just don't like it because it seems you're pre-asking for a pass if muffin is a cop. If you are for a hammer and you want to hammer, then hammer and face the same scrutiny the rest of us will for potentially killing the cop. By you asking for people to endorse your hammer, its almost as if you're expecting that muffin really is a cop, but you want everyone to ask you to hammer so tomorrow we won't hold you responsible. But everyone needs to be responsible for their own vote, which is why I'm not going to ask anyone to hammer.

==================================================================

@ecto:

I've argued before that the claimed cop should be lynched to save grief later.
I was scum that game.
I dont like the Yosarian/Cop pairing.

So if I understand correctly, you think we should lynch muffin because his claim is questionable and because it would save us grief later, but the last time you argued for that, you were scum. Are you telling this because you don't want us go through your past games and find this example and think you must again be scum for suggesting the same type of action?

[Rhinox]

I guess now would be a good time to express some general feelings on all of the players in the context of knowing muffin was scum. (and Vi was town)

===================================================

@Ecto, I would like you to paraphrase the following posts for me into what exactly your official stance on muffin was... I don't know what it is exactly, and maybe I'm not understanding correctly, but something doesn't seem quite right with your postings after muffin's claim.

Won't you feel stupid if you hammer and he turns out to be a cop? (For example, obv.) For that reason, I do ask you to wait until Muffin has been online at least (or gets replaced).

last night I targetted cass and got an innocent. But im not coming to any coclusions till I know that im sane.

Talk about this coincidence Muffinhead.

Here I get the feeling you're not buying muffin's claim because its too much of a coincidence.

Yosarian was indeed troubled, but he always did what he thought best for town. I would consider him 'paranpoid', even when he turned out wrong.

Here I think you're saying that "yosarian, the meerkat" was paranoid, although he always did what he thought was best for the whiskers. We know muffin was not a paranoid cop because he gave us an innocent result, so I think you're saying yosarian/muffin =/= cop.

I've argued before that the claimed cop should be lynched to save grief later.
I was scum that game.
I dont like the Yosarian/Cop pairing.

Here I think you're saying one of two things: either you want to get rid of muffin to save grief for later but you don't want us to think you're scum because thats what you did once when you were scum - or - you're saying that you think its scummy to want to get rid of muffin to save grief, even though you don't think it makes sense for yosarian to be a cop.

Never watched the show?Yosarian as cop makes no sense. Im not really believing the claim.

Here you explicitly state that you don't think the yosarian/cop pairing makes sense from a flavor standpoint, and you don't believe muffin's claim.

Now things start to get very interesting...

Im a sucker for flavor. Yosarian has

strong

ties to the whiskers. he could be a cop. leave him be.

With no explanation as to why, you've gone from "yosarian as a cop makes no sense" to "yosarian could be a cop" all based on flavor. why the flip flop? And you explicitly tell us to not lynch muffin.

I always liked Yosarian, and I believe that there is a situation whereby a scum cop must always tell the truth. I just have to remember what it is.

Now you're presenting as a reason to leave muffin alive that "you've always liked Yosarian". Also, you think that muffin might be a scum cop that must tell the truth. I don't see how this make any sense at all. Firstly, a scum cop is only good to find out the predators - it doesn't take a scum cop to tell us that a townie is a townie. Any scum could do that. Secondly, how do you force a scum cop to always tell us honest results? A scum cop isn't going to investigate another scum, so a scum cop would never be forced to tell us who scum are. If a scum cop tells us who is a confirmed townie, how do we actually confirm that without knowing that the supposed scum cop is not only a scum, but a scum cop, but a scum cop who must tell us accurate results? And Thirdly, if a townie is still a townie, no matter how worthless, a scum is still a scum and I see no reason to leave alive a scum cop even if he must tell us his investigation results. So I don't get what the point of this post was, other than to cause confusion.

Hmm, what has been termed a terrible defense on my part is in actuality my display of the weakness of the case. Do not attack others for your failures, rather modify them, or own up to them.

What exactly does this post mean? Because what I'm reading is that you're inability to provide a good reason to not lynch muffin somehow proves that muffin's case was weak - And that does not make any sense at all. Also, what point does the last sentence have in existing? What failure are you referring to? Five of us saw something in muffin that you refused to believe - that muffin was scum. With the possibility that muffin got bussed aside, you were very intent on stopping the lynch on muffin, even thought you didn't believe his claim.

So what I'm getting at is no matter how many times I read through these posts, I see you on both sides of the muffin fence, all while posting little content at all. First, you think muffin's case is weak. Then, you don't believe his claim. Then, you possibly do believe his claim that he might be cop. Then, you introduce some sort of scum-cop confusion where a scum cop is secretely useful for the town to keep around. Then you go back to claiming again how the case on muffin is a weak case.

So, unless I misunderstood, something seems very off with this line of posting of yours. Please, tell me if I've taken a wrong interpretation somewhere along the way, and if not, what message exactly were you trying to get across with all of these posts? Because I can't think of anything that makes sense from a "ecto is town" pre-assumption.

addendum #1 to include a comment based on the night kill:

Considering that Ectomancer was the leader of the "let's not lynch muffinhead" voice and has done such a poor job of defending him, I believe I have a more compelling reason to see muffinhead lynched now than sheer utility. If he flips scum, then Ectomancer has painted a giant target on himself.

So ecto, if you're scum, you knew Vi would be coming straight after you once muffin was shown to be scum. Also, you spent a good part of yesterday arguing the weak case supporting a possible scum pairing of Vi/Bogre and muffin. That means, you would be hypocritical to attempt to get Vi lynched. So, Vi was a big threat, with little possibility of getting lynched. Things that make you go hmmmmm... I won't try to hang you yet thought because there is a possibility you're being framed.

===================================================

@cass: I'm wondering if muffin had the balls to tell us his scum partner is innocent, or if he just picked a "townie" to say was innocent. I guess there is really no way to know for sure. Townie is in quotes because we still don't know if we are down to only scum and town - there might still be a predator left.

===================================================

@(the ghost of) Vi:
I had a section here prepared for you as well. The abridged version (since you're dead) is that ckd thought you might want to be on muffin's wagon, but were afraid to hammer. I was thinking that the only way you would be afraid to hammer is if you either knew muffin was town (making you scum), or if you were townie and you thought there was a chance muffin was being honest. Since muffin was scum, if you were planning on bussing him it wouldn't have mattered really if you were a hammer vote or not, but if you were afraid to hammer, that supports that you were a townie concerned about the ramifications of hammering a claimed cop.

===================================================

@ckd: You were right about clock being an evil faction, and despite disagreements about the "to be honest" tell, you were 100% dead on right about muffin from the start. That was either a very impressive case of bussing, or you're just very good at catching scum. I'm going with the latter, at least until/unless anything comes up to change my mind.

===================================================

@wolf and coug: I lost a bit of a read on both of you throughout the day, but you were both on muffin's lynch early and hard, and I would like to think that is too early for a scum to be bussing their partner (unless it was a pre-planned gambit, but thats unlikely). I have no reason to believe either of you to be scum right now, but I'm not ready to completely ride either of you off as town either. For now, I consider both of you relatively safe.

===================================================

@jonathan: You've been generally unhelpful in that most of your comments are in defense of yourself - you don't really bring anything new into conversations. Even though you didn't vote for muffin, I got the feeling you wanted to, but were afraid of the consequences of hammering if muffin WAS a cop. Much like with Vi, I don't think that is consistent with a scum bussing a scum partner. The difference from Vi is that you didn't vote at all, so your threat to hammer might have been nothing more than just an empty threat, and you really had no intent of hammering because he was your scum partner. I'm still quite nervous about your role.

===================================================

To summarize, it was speculated a little while back that in a game of 12, a scum group of 2 (maybe 3) and 1 sk was enough evil factions unless the town had many power roles. If this is the case, then we only have to find 1 (or maybe 2) scum in order to win. Looking back at all the players in context of the muffin lynch (and now Vi's death), I think ecto makes a good candidate for who that scum might be. There are others who wouldn't suprise me if they were scum, but I think its pretty obvious that we need to look very closely at ecto today to attempt to derive whether he could be scum, or if he simply made himself too good of a target to frame.

[Rhinox]

Vi "the babysitter" - sounds like a protective power role to me. Could he have been a doc, perhaps? Or, if we take the flavor very literally, a bodyguard? Then, besides self-defense and framing, an alternative reason for the NK might have been misdirection (Vi protected whoever was targeted).

oooh... very good point. Actually, the bodyguard thing makes a lot of sense. I didn't even think of that. Scratch the addendum part out of my previous post, because its possible that Vi wasn't even the target last night. That doesn't even remotely let ecto off the hook though.

Regarding Vi being a possible bodyguard, its possible he didn't even know he was a bodyguard. Going off the flavor, I could imagine Vi's role to be babysitter for the pups, takes the fall if a whisker pup is targeted. Otherwise, he would have to know who the pups were and guess properly which one to protect each night.

As far as remaining scum go, my cute little meerkat body is still very afraid there may be a predator lurking out there somewhere, but at this point, that only makes sense if the predators aren't forced to kill. (assuming predators are sk's, sk's are usually forced to make all of their kills, right?)

[Rhinox]

I'm beginning to be more inclined to think Jon is Muffins partner. Reason being I think that Muffin claiming Cop and saying Cass was innocent is true (the Cass part). More then likely this is Muffin trying to get Cass on his side (which worked for Cass did unvote) but it seems more like Muffin trying to get a lynch set up for today if he did end up getting lynched (which he did). The reason I say this is because Jon wouldn't touch the Muffinwagon. Maybe he did believe Muffin was cop, but, Jon got on Bogre's wagon and then when attention turned to Muffin he wouldn't touch it. Gave a few empty threats of a vote, but all in all he wouldn't go near Muffin. So Muffin claiming Cass innocent seems more like he was trying to get a "easy" lynch for Jon to get on today.

So if I follow you, you're saying that muffin claimed Cass innocent so that if muffin got lynched and was revealed as scum, jonathan would have an easy target to go after in Cass? I'm not sure I buy that, because I don't think anyone sees Cass as a valid target only because a scum fake-claimed cop with an innocent on her - which means if jonathan tried to make that case, no one would go with it. Also, if this was the plan, why cass? I think it would have been 'better' to set up an innocent on Vi, since there was already the possible bogre/muffin connection (that we only now know was wrong). However, almost any other player would have also fit in the 'innocent result' spot in this plan, so I think there must have been a different reason to say Cass was innocent. I think the probable answer is that Cass thought it would be bad if we lynched a cop, so muffin claimed cop with an added benefit that cass was innocent to try to really buddy up to cass.

The bastardly move would be if cass is secretly in muffin's scum group, and made the "wouldn't you feel stupid if muffin was a cop" comment to set up muffin's fake claim, and muffin said Cass was innocent so if muffin was lynched, we would think that he was just trying to buddy up to townie cass (who is secretely scum).

Now, I'm not trying to say jonathan is not/can not be the scum because of this, I just don't think this is very good evidence to prove that he is. Assuming Cass is town, she might be onto something with the ecto-scum, jonathan-sk idea if there were a logical reason to explain the lack of sk kills. Maybe its possible ecto and jonathan are both commando scum? I do think an interesting point you brought up is that jonathan voted bogre, but didn't vote muffin. That might be saying something.

Vote: Ectomancer for defending muffinhead solely on flavor. I don't have time for a good read right now (class is in five minutes), but that's my number one suspect going into today.

I think maybe you might take a little bit of heat for doing this so rashly. Firstly, ecto didn't defend muffin solely on flavor. Ecto started defending muffin after Vi replaced in well before muffin even claimed (that is, if you consider calling the case against muffin weak as defending muffin). And secondly, if I humor the idea that Vi was killed directly in an attempt to further frame ecto, your quick vote here could be interpreted as trying to opportunisticly start that bandwagon, especially since you didn't take the time to properly justify your vote.

[Rhinox]

As I said, I had class in five minutes. That is not enough time to give a detailed case on somebody, but that is enough time to become suspicious about somebody for something. I have a life, you know.

Easy there killer, I'm not questioning your other commitments. I'm saying there is a difference between expressing suspisions on someone vs. voting for someone (which may or may not be trying to start a bandwagon). IMO, at the start of the day, in your first post, if you want to vote for someone, you better back it up. The reason you gave was wrong. If you had class, what would be wrong with simply waiting until class was over to make a full post?

Also, you had time to respond to my post, yet you still haven't properly justified you vote on ecto. I know what I think about ecto right now, but I want to hear from you why you think he deserved your vote. And I don't care if you have to wait until after class to make that post. Take your time We all have lives, you know.

Addendum after reread of coug's posts: This is a gem of a quote if I ever found one...

Failure to explain your vote = opportunistic vote. Opportunistic vote = scummy. Scummy actions = vote on you. Therefore, failure to explain your vote = vote on you.

So everybody

but you

has to explain their votes?

Oh look, here's some more:

For a vote not to be opportunistic in my eyes, I need the reasons or where I can get them in front of my nose when I see the vote. It's me.

Now, don't get me wrong. As I'll explain later in this post, I don't think you're commando. Predator possibly, but there's no way to tell if there is even a predator remaining right now. What I think is that it is your personallity that is slightly abrasive and just comes off scummy, and possibly sometimes you don't think before you say stuff (like with your vote today on ecto, even though it directly conflicts with your already expressed definition of an opportunistic vote). But I do agree with you... ecto is looking more and more like a good scum candidate today.

=====================================================

@ecto: In my last post I asked you to clarify what your feelings towards muffin were exactly. Maybe it was lost in translation (I do tend to ramble sometimes). All I know is at one point you explicty said you didn't believe muffin's claim, and at another point you explicitly exclaimed "he might be a cop, let him be". Is that because you thought he was scum so you knew he could be lynched later, as you seem to imply in your last post? Also...

The one situation where you miight leave a claimed cop alive is if you know they are the final scum. You can believe every innocent the give, and if they give scum and you lynch town (except in LYLO), we win.

I disagree. How do you know the scum won't claim their scum partner(s) are innocent? Yes, if you know he's the

final

scum, then you know everyone else is pro-town, but if you know he's the

final

scum, then dare I say we would just lynch him?

Unless you're talking about when you already know there is only one scum remaining and you have a cop claim. Then sure, I could see a benefit in leaving the claimed cop alive for a while unless I truly thought he was the lying scum. However, this was definately not the case with muffin, and hence not a valid reason for leaving muffin alive.

Also, compare these 3 scenarios:
1:

StrangerCoug deserves votes piled on him for that self-vote. It's not helpful and this pressure might make him think twice before doing it again. He's not going to get quicklynched by town, and if scum piles on, Huzzah! We got one or two for tomorrow...
I still say we string him up. Somebody's gotta die today, we might as well do the volunteer

2:

If we assume Clock was a day SK, he had no idea of MM's alignment. You see, I was going to go back to my case against SC, because I moved off of it due to Clock's case against MM being a better one (IMO). SC's case is still pretty good.

However.

If I'm an SK, I scum hunt. I need them dead, the sooner, the better.

To me, that means that Clock's case isn't trash to be tossed aside. I think it was an honest one.

With that assessment:

vote MafiaMann

I think the case was a good one, and though the information gained may be too WIFOMish to use, I would still like to know whether Clock was right.

3:

Won't you feel stupid if you hammer and he turns out to be a cop? (For example, obv.) For that reason, I do ask you to wait until Muffin has been online at least (or gets replaced).

last night I targetted cass and got an innocent. But im not coming to any coclusions till I know that im sane.

Talk about this coincidence Muffinhead.

Yosarian was indeed troubled, but he always did what he thought best for town. I would consider him 'paranpoid', even when he turned out wrong.

I've argued before that the claimed cop should be lynched to save grief later.
I was scum that game.
I dont like the Yosarian/Cop pairing.

Never watched the show?Yosarian as cop makes no sense. Im not really believing the claim.

Im a sucker for flavor. Yosarian has

strong

ties to the whiskers. he could be a cop. leave him be.

I always liked Yosarian, and I believe that there is a situation whereby a scum cop must always tell the truth. I just have to remember what it is.

Hmm, what has been termed a terrible defense on my part is in actuality my display of the weakness of the case. Do not attack others for your failures, rather modify them, or own up to them.

In case 1, you wanted to lynch coug due to his self voting, because somebody had to die. This was a weaker reason than for lynching muffin.

In case 2, you voted to lynch MM based on the fact that clock would be legitamately scum hunting because he was an sk. The kicker is, you did this even though you 100% believed MM's claim. You said so, and used that fact to attack clock for searching for extra flavor on a townie claim. Another interesting point is that if you and clock were competing sk's, or in different scum factions, then you have just as much of a reason to try to get rid of him as he does to legitimately scum hunt. That would explain why you decided to "believe" MM's claim and attack clock - you saw a scum tell, but knew clock wasn't in your group, so you wanted to get rid of him. Then, after clock was dead, you still saw an opportunity to lynch MM even though you believed his claim.

Case 3 is obviously the muffin lynch. You argued that the case on muffin was weak, but after muffin claimed you didn't believe him. When it looked like no one was backing off, you changed and said he

could

be a cop and went back to claiming that the case on him was weak.

You're right, whether or not you defended muffin as your scum partner IS WIFOM, but that doesn't mean that gives you a free pass to do it without it being a legit possibility. But actually, whats more telling is that I found 2 examples of you endorsing a lynch based on weaker evidence than that on muffin, and 1 example of you endorsing a lynch of a player after a townie claim you believed. With muffin, there was a stronger case than either of the cases on coug on D1 or MM before his lynch, and muffin made a claim you did NOT believe, and yet this time, you were against the lynch. This is directly conflicting with your established play style in this game, and this is why I think you have a lot to answer for today.

======================================================

Regarding the potential bussing of muffin by at least 1 scum, I'm not sure I would definatively say there was so much momentum that a scum couldn't resist joining in. I just finished up a newbie game (I was scum) and my crappy IC scum partner basically suicided D1 because he played so badly. I never voted for him, and I went on to win the game as the sole remaining scum. So just because there is tremendous momentum on a scum lynch, that does not mean 100% that a scum partner is bussing.

However, that does not mean 100% that a scum partner is not bussing, either. That means, you're claiming that possibly at least 1 of me, coug, wolf, and ckd bussed muffin (we know it wasn't Vi). Obviously I know I didn't bus muffin. Both of wolf and coug were on muffin's wagon hard and early. After rereading, both wolf and coug were helpful in starting the momentum on muffin, not jumping on after the momentum started. So I don't think either of them were bussing (but they could be sk-predators) And CKD, its possible he bussed muffin, but he's been the best at finding scum this game. He outed clock, and he was also on muffin early for the honesty thing. Actually, all 4 of us reacted to muffin basically the same way at basically the same time. I don't think the play of wolf, coug, or CKD (or myself) even leaves open the possibility that one of them (us) were muffin's scum partner and bussed him, unless it was planned the night before.

So by process of elimination, I'm pretty confident the remaining commando(s) are in a group including ectomancer, jonathan, and cass, be it either 1 or 2 commandos remaining. If there is an SK that is simply not killing, then it really could be anybody, because like the town, they would be trying to eliminate the commandos as quickly as possible, but so they could step in and finish off the town after the commandos were gone. Although, in this game, I'm not sure that strategy would work for an sk. Rishi gave us flavor this morning that specifically the commandos came to make the kill on Vi. Presumedly, then, its either bastard modery, or if/when a predator makes a kill, it won't say it was done by the commandos. That means, later in the game if we kill off another commando, we will see if commando kills stop and predator kills fill in the void.


Sorry if my posts are getting TOO big... I have a habit of having a lot to say, and doing so with a lot of words. Let me know if its a big problem, and I'll try to make my posts more concise and to the point in the future. (In the game I just finished, large, thoughtful wall posts became not only accepted, but sort of expected... I know not everyone appreciates huge posts).

[Rhinox]

ok ecto... here's 3 questions/comment based on your last answer. Answer as you see fit.

1:

I DO like Yosarian. He was my favorite. So I want him to be a good guy? Sue me.

There are 12 safe whisker names Rishi gave out in the intro post. All are "good guys" on the show, but scum use them to fake claim. Muffin wasn't Yosarian, he was Hannibal, a commando. Yosarian is still a good guy, just not present in the game aside from a safe name given to a scum. I find it suspect that you would want to believe someone based only on their name, knowing that all scum have safe names to claim with. And I'm not a big fan of just trying to brush it aside as unimportant with the "sue me" comment either...

2:

I do think we are down to 1 scum. If that is right, every innocent result a scum cop gives has to be true. Since you dont know if he is scum or not, you can keep letting him tell you who is town. I've had it work before to narrow down targets.

I'm still not following this. Before we lynched muffin, we weren't down to just one scum. He told us Cass was innocent, maybe (hypothetically) cass is his scum partner. If we'd blindly believe that to be true, we could lose. Could you please describe how you saw things going down if muffin was a scum cop, or possibly reference the game where you've used a scum cop to narrow down targets so I can understand what you're talking about?

3:

Dont forget, he could have been cop.

Yes, but you said you didn't believe his claim. On the contrary, you voted to lynch mafiamann despite believing his townie claim. Why, if you're town, would you vote to lynch after a claim you do believe, and would you ask us not to lynch after a claim you don't believe?

======================================================

Rhinox, if you want to sue me for making hasty generalizations of Ectomancer, then go straight ahead, but as I said, I suspect him most.

Wow, another "sue me" comment... So you suspect ecto most. Great, so do I. But you voted, and the only reason you gave why was wrong. I find it a bit hypocritcal that you can go after cass for voting opportunistically and you won't act in line with your own definition of an opportunistic vote. I'm also a bit concerned that you think its a problem for me to ask you to properly justify your vote.

EBWOP: For the record, part of my reasoning for my voting Ectomancer is how I don't like how he buddied up to muffinhead when he was about to be lynched. muffinhead flipped Commando, so that makes Ectomancer an object of suspicion.

His bloodthirstiness Day 1 when he tried to off me for voting myself is also something of concern to me, but not as big as siding up with muffinhead without a lot of reasoning.

Thanks. thats what I wanted to hear. What do you think about this in the context of not believing muffins claim, yet voting for mafiamann despite publically claiming the he did believe MM's claim?

And if you were offended by the obvious sarcasm towards you in my last post, I'm sorry, but I get a little steamed everytime someone uses the "I have a life" defense in internet games such as mafia. Because the obvious backhanded implication is that the rest of us don't have lives, even thought we're all here on the internet trying to have fun wasting time playing a game together. Don't assume you're the only person on the internet who secretely has a life away from the internet.

[Rhinox]

More can be gained by keeping them talking than by lynching them, if that is, you already know they are scum, and some of you were too damn certain, werent you?

Who's more certain, those of us who wanted to lynch muffin because we

thought

we found scum, or you for wanting to leave muffin alive because you

knew

he was scum?

What is relevant is that there is a situation whereby you can get a good result from a claimed cop, regardless of their alignment.

After I thought about it, I realized that we couldn't in this case because you have to know that there is only one scum.

We never quite got that far in the discussion though did we?

Someone HAD to hammer. (Oh wow, it was you CKD)

I think it was clear that

I was busy pursuing avenues of information. I think it equally clear that my line of investigation (though incorrect upon further thought) was cut short.

At the time, you had no idea whether my line of investigation would yield results or not,

and so you offed your scum mate before anything could possible be revealed.

(Ironically enough, there was nothing, but you had to act anyhow)

vote CKD

I find it hard to believe that you mistakingly thought that muffin was the remaining scum. Thats not even something you have to take time to think about. We didn't kill commando yet, there's going to be at least two of them. I also find it suspect that you've voted for or wanted to lynch many other players (including mafiamann, even though you believed his claim) but when we find someone and you don't believe his claim and you're telling us now that you knew he was scum, you DON'T want to lynch him.

It was not clear at all that you were persuing a line of investigation. I had no idea what you were doing, besides telling us you didn't believe muffins claim, while arguing that the case on him was weak and telling us not to lynch him. You weren't asking any questions, or suggesting any alternatives, therefore you didn't get cut off - no, you had plenty of time to clarify what you were trying to acomplish (just read up and find one of my last couple posts and find where I quoted your 7 or so comments AFTER muffin claimed.

And whats with the "oh wow it was you ckd" comment? because from where I'm sitting, I see you going strong after the towns strongest scum catcher. I don't know, maybe ckd really DID bus muffin - after he temporarily unvoted, he made multiple posts asking muffin to post more and threatened to hammer. When my last scum partner was about to get lycnhed, I did the same thing, except a townie hammered before I got the chance to bus.

What I don't like is that ecto has been willing to throw his vote around, even to lynch someone like mafiamann when he didn't even think he was scum. But the first time we found scum, the strategy was to let him live. This is backassward to everything I thought I knew about mafia. Maybe its a strategy I'll learn to appreciate with experience, or maybe its the best thing ecto can come up with to save himself.

Meanwhile, jonathan hasn't said much today (suprise suprise), and cass has sort of slunk back into the shadows after making one early post. I would really like to hear everyone's opinion on ecto, and now ckd since thats where ecto is focusing, and I would expecially like to hear this from jonathan and cass.

[Rhinox]

My defense is neither weak nor weasley. What has occured is that there were some very ticked off people when I asked them to re-inforce their case on Muffin in light of the change of heart by town on Bogre. That didnt sit right with me. (They never did address this, but this furor is drowning that out. They act like Muffin turning up scum changes the fundamental arguement. It doesn't)
The discussion was indeed cut off by CKD's hammer unjustifiably. Can he explain why?

I think you overstate the situation. I wasn't "ticked off" and I'm not sure anybody else was either. You also seem to imply that the only case against muffin being scum was that he was bogre's/vi's scum partner. That has been refuted and proven outright wrong. We all did re-inforce our positions on muffin, and added to it when muffin started saying things to point to him being scum. However, the outcome you aparently wanted - for us to believe there was no case - was not the outcome we used the facts to deduce. Tell me again, who's acting "ticked off"?

And maybe I'll believe that CKD cut off conversation with hammering, if you can first show me that there was some conversation you were trying to communicate. I didn't see you suggesting alternative routes of focus, I didn't see you asking muffin any questions. Of course, you'll say that's because ckd hammered and you got cut off. But I've read through your posts many times - what stays with me is that even in your last post before muffin was lynched, you still claim that the case on muffin was weak. Thats not something I expect to hear from someone who thinks the target is scum, but wants to keep them around for information. And all I see you doing today is twisting the situation that a scum was outed and lynched to be ultimately worse for the town than if we'd have let him live - and you have shown me no good reason to believe in that philosophy.

Interesting that you claim that I am targeting the toughest scum hunter, when that person is ME. Im the one questioning cases without taking shit for granted. IM the one who smelled Clock's mistake as scum, and I dare you to suggest I was his partner. Even with Muffin turning scum I was STILL the person digging hard at the rock to make sure we had the right one.
You have a very hard time proving to anyone that I havent been scum hunting Rhinox. Also, for town members, even if you feel like you would vote for me, you are helping out scum by actually stating it. Let them wonder until (if ) you hammer me.

I meant to say "scum catcher", but whatever. You're defending things I never even attacked you for here. Paranoid much? I never said nor implied you weren't scum hunting, and I never said nor implied that you were clocks predator partner. However you did. Twice. First, after clock died, you posted that we would have to decide whether or not you were trying to bus clock, and then again in this post you dare me to accuse you of being his partner... why? Is there some reason I should believe we have 2 scum groups of 2 and that you might be clocks partner? Up until now, I've assumed that the predators were individual and separate sk's, be it that we have 1 or 2. The only thing to even make me remotely think you are a predator scum pair with clock now is your obsessive concern over being linked to clock. And believe me, that possibility it not even remotely the motivation behind my current line of questioning towards you.

Let me say one more thing, only one of you is likely scum. The other need to pull their heads out and look to see who is tunnel visioning and cutting off discussion with hammers.

OH right, now I have confirmation bias. I guess that means I should stop questioning you now for information. I guess that means I'm already convinced you're scum even though you haven't recieved my vote yet. I guess that means asking for input from jonathan and cass and everyone else was just for show then. puh-leeze. You must have known the risk when defending muffin that you would be under heavy scrutiny if we lynched him and he was scum - even if you're town. You're responses seem more in annoyance that

we

have the audacity to question

you

.

Also, dare I call this a form of a false dilemna? Maybe nobody has confirmation bias and you just don't like being the center of attention. maybe nobody is cutting off discussion with hammers and you're just doing all you can to get ckd lynched.

==================================================================

Rhinox here thinks that the idea of leaving muffinhead alive for one more night has some merit.

It might be that ectomancer was trying to keep muffinhead around for a bit more to try to get more information from him, without trying to be too "noticeable". And so he's suspicious of ckd because he "cut it short" before muffinhead could say any more.

Yes that is true, but I was also up in the air about it. I was steadfast with my vote however, and muffin was scum. I think I made the right call. I also wasn't the only player voting for muffin who was humoring the idea of letting muffin live.

Regarding your second paragraph, thats a pretty good summary of whats going down, but whats missing is your thoughts. Do you think ecto is on to something by attacking CKD. Do you think its probably ecto is scum based on yesterday's actions and today's comments. Do you think we're looking in the entire wrong direction and neither are scum? Do you have an actual opinion to add, for once.

==================================================================

ECTO you seem to completely be overlooking this post...is that on purpose or did you just over look it.

I was also going to point out this post until ckd brought it up. CKD looks to be intentionally delaying the lynch for more information. not trying to cut muffin off.

you are scum.

A bold and risky statement, and one I'm getting closer to believing. But I'm not ready to vote just yet. Other players still need to weigh in with opinions on the subject.

[Rhinox]

Right now I am torn. I still feel like jon is Muffins partner, I would even like to say my last post to him with his auto silence right now would mean i got him, but with the infrequency of his posts I can't say that is concrete. But with the way ectos posts have been lately I am really starting to wonder if i have the wrong person pegged.

I was always under impression that a "standard, normal" configuration in a 12 player game is 3-scum, 1-sk, 8-town. Its legitimately possible that both ecto and jonathan "could" be scum. I don't like jonathan's lurking, and I don't like that neither ecto nor jonathan have expressed opinions about each other today, despite the ongoing conversation.

=====================================================

@CKD: Why did you unvote? Yes, your statement was risky in the event that ecto is lynched and is town. Does that mean you're being set up for tomorrow's lynch? I don't think so. It just means that for the same reason ecto is being scrutinized today, you would need to face the same type of scrutiny. For what its worth, I admired your resolve to make a statement like that. Every vote you've placed has been on a player who was anti-town (the exception being coug, and now ecto, but I guess the jury can still be out on both).

The dilemna we face now is that your unvoting shows you are not as confident as your original statement implied. What does that mean, exactly? Perhaps it means that

you

already know ecto is town, and that you thought (given your record in this game, and ecto's hole that he dug) you could get a bandwagon going on ecto leading to his lynch, but you got spooked when all coug did was imply that it would make you seem very scummy if/when ecto showed up town. Or maybe it does mean coug knows something about ecto's role, or maybe it means nothing at all. All I know is that when you make a strong statement like the one you did, only to back out of it less than 24 hours later, it creates more uncertainty in a situation that is already very dicey.

For the record, my gut also tells me that its quite obvious ecto should be lynched today - but thats also the problem. Its TOO obvious, looks TOO perfect, and seems way TOO easy. Its like its all wrapped up in a pretty little box with a bow for us - something that could have been set up once ecto made the decision to defend muffin. That is why I haven't place my vote yet.

[Rhinox]

P.S. - Posting walls of text, then later going back and saying "Look, you didnt respond to something", is really beneath response. If something wasn't answered, ask again without the scummy drama.

To whom is this directed towards? I feel a little insulted. Are you calling me scummy? I don't recall ever saying "look, you didn't respond to something", and the time you did ask me to shorten my posts because you can't answer to a wall of text (what, is it so hard to read?), I did.

You cut off a line of questioning I was pursuing, deal with the fact that I dont like you having done it.

Here's about as direct as I can put this: point me to a post of yours, after muffin claimed, where you asked a single question.

This is WIFOM meta, but go read my games. Do you really think I make mistakes like this one? What I've garnered thus far is that I was protecting Muffin SO hard because I really didnt want to bus him. Who really gives a rats ass about your scum partner? The object of the game is to win, and I dont need a partner around to do it.
Why does it make sense for me to do what I did when the easy thing would have been a nice hammer Bus were I scum? Anybody could have hidden on that bus....
What I was after was more information, thought I had a way of getting it, but realized I was wrong before our boy got lynched.

I never said you made a mistake by defending muffin - I just think its too convenient of an excuse for you to say to clear yourself that no scum would have made the mistake of so obviously defending muffin. No, actually I don't think anything you've said or done has be a mistake or unintended, which is why I don't buy the whole "I thought we could get accurate info from muffin the claimed cop but didn't realize he wasn't the last scum" defense. But if that was a mistake, certainly its not out of the realm of possibility that you might have made a mistake in thinking you could get away with trying to protect your scum partner.

Also ecto, aren't you even the slightest bit concerned that jonathan is lurking the day away while you're getting grilled?


As a final comment (gee, I hope this doesn't sound like scummy drama), its your responses today that speak volumes over your actions yesterday pointing to you being scum. Every post of yours has had a certain annoyed tone - I might have been able to believe you if you'd have simply come out today and said you were wrong for wanting to keep muffin around. Even little comments like this:

If you have stopped looking for information at anytime during the game, even if you are 99.99% certain you have scum, you still have learning to do.

This ain't no newbie game, and I'm certainly not going to let myself be taught how to play good townie in-game from a player who just might very well be scum. There are other examples like this comment.

Instead of just saying you were wrong, you've tried to justify your actions. Which is fine, except it feels like every reason you've given has been completely bogus. Your "best" defenses (that you wouldn't have made the mistake of defending you scum partner, that you might be set up, that you were wrong) you've either not utilized or presented in an unbelievable and scummy way.

At this point, although I'm more than happy to continue the discussion, I'm going to

vote: ecto
FoS: Jonathan

(Jonathan, for the record you would have recieved my vote by now if it weren't for the case on ecto)

I'm not trying to rush the day, or cut off information, or anything like that. But I do feel that ecto deserves to have at least 2 votes on him now, and I believe we will learn a ton of information about other players by knowing what exactly ecto is. Right now, I'm most interested to hear from jonathan.

[Rhinox]

@Rhinox - Im not wrong, and your vote is in irritation. I wasn't ready for the day to end, and I was certainly not going to be rushed along. As for your assumptions, your ego is leading you to believe every comment is aimed directly at you and in as negative a manner as possible. Cool your blood.

I'm cool as a cucumber, friend. You, sir, are clearly the one who's irritated.

[Rhinox]

@Rhinox - Im not wrong, and your vote is in irritation. I wasn't ready for the day to end, and I was certainly not going to be rushed along. As for your assumptions, your ego is leading you to believe every comment is aimed directly at you and in as negative a manner as possible. Cool your blood.

I'm cool as a cucumber, friend. You, sir, are clearly the one who's irritated.

[Rhinox]

Rrriiiiight... lets just quote half the thread. That'll prove you're innocent.

*facepalm*

Way to quote even the posts that weren't about you. But hey, anything to *prove* your argument that you're being unfairly attacked.

Whats so hard about answering this one question. I've asked it in isolation a couple times now. Here it is again:

You claim you line of questioning was cut off prematurely when ckd hammered. Please direct me to one or more posts of yours where you asked a question towards muffin (or someone else about muffin's lynch), expressed that you wanted muffin to say something, presented an alternative route of investigation, or did anything at all other than sit there and say "don't lynch muffin".

Bolded so its easier for ecto to see and read. Sorry Rishi.

[Rhinox]

OK then, lets see if I can take a step back and take an objective look at CKD and Ecto together in context... These are the events I found important to the cases on ecto and CKD, from ckd's first comment on muffin until muffins claim, from page 12 to page 15, posts 294 to 373, AUG 18 to AUG 29. Yes, it is a wall, a partial PbPA. Deal with it. I don't ask you to answer line by line, nor do I ask for a response at all. Just read it, and understand why I don't buy the case on ckd, and if you choose to respond to or clarify any of the points I make, well, just remember no ones holding a gun to head to force you to respond to the wall.

I find that people who tend to use this phrase are scum.
unvote, vote Muffin.
have you not been honest about other things?

CKD placed the first vote on muffin, and that vote remained until the unvote and hammer for muffin's lynch. At this point, both Bogre and coug had three votes apiece, and CKD was on coug's wagon. If I am to believe CKD bussed his partner muffin, this is the first hurdle I have to get over: Why would CKD abandon both of the popular wagons at the time to proceed to bus his partner, who had yet to even recieve a vote? The only reason that remotely makes sense is that muffin really was losing interest in the game and set up a plan with CKD the night before to have CKD eventually bus him. But if muffin wanted out, why bother with the fake claim and asking to be left alive?

You tell me ecto. You've made it clear you're the game elder, with plenty of game tips: is it common for scum to arrange and agree to bussing as a ploy during the night?

it is a slip...keep in mind I also caught Clock on a scum slip too...

The above is abridged. clock is taking some heat for the to be honest tell and claims for the first time that he caught clock on a slip. The reason I'm throwing this in is i want to ask ecto: Why didn't this blurp on your scumdar then, if you are now so convinced that you were the one who caught clock?

CKD 300, page 13: CKD continues to grill muffin for a false implication

*meanwhile* in part of my post 301, I felt the need to ask ecto to chime in because I felt he was beginning to lurk. It was in one of my bigger posts. Funny ecto had no problem reading and understanding that.

CKD 302, page 13: CKD continues to defend the "to be honest" tell, and presents more reasons in the muffin case.

coug 304 votes muffin - still only the second vote on muffin.

CKD 311, page 13: CKD keeps his vote on muffin and starts to question jonathan. Another big hurdle - This seems like good scum hunting to me. Not stopping searching for informaition even after CKD placed his vote. If CKD wanted to bus muffin, why even bother providing possible other options in jonathan at this point?

Rhinox 313: I vote muffin. Muffin now has 3 votes. Still L-2.

Wolf 314: Votes muffin to L-1.

Ecto 315 regarding muffin's utility lynch potential:

Of course we lose something. This is a game of numbers, and any that we lose from our column is a bad deal for us.

This is important because its my basis for not believing there is ever a good reason to leave someone alive once you think they're scum.

ecto 319: speculation on setup. one problem I have with this post that I didn't realize until recently:

I submit that we stick primarily to the most likely (2 scum, 1 SK) until we either uncover another predator by scum hunting, or we eliminate the Commandoes.

I've read in mafia discussion in the last week or so that in mini normal games, a "standard" setup is 3 scum and 1 sk. Even in a theme game, where the setups are expected to be anything but normal, I now have a hard time believing there would be any less than 4 total scum. This is more speculation than solid evidence, but why would ecto want us to think there were only 3 total scum?

ckd 321: CKD continues to question jonathan - no mention of muffin.

ckd 324: CKD questions jonathan, specifically to ask about CKD's case on muffin.

On Bogre: I looked at the case on him, and I feel Im too close to the argument to be objective. We likely only have 7 town. If I dont vote for him, and Bogre is scum, 5 of 6 of you will need to be voting for him unless his partner decides to bus.
If he were town, I would have thought his bandwagon would have grown faster because scum would be trying to help it along. (I know, entirely an unsupported opinion)
That's why Im really not liking Jonathan's vote when you take in his last 2 comments.

Thats only half the post. The other half is ecto voting for jonathan. 2 things to note: ecto was right about Vi being town(for what its worth - the reasons why are nothing but WIFOM), and I got the feeling based on this post that it wasn't a likely scenario that a scum partner would bus bogre in ecto's opinion. Now, in muffin's case, ecto seems to think it was obvious muffin was bussed because "who cares about their scum partner?" Its funny to me that bussing is unlikely when it helps justify ecto's vote on jonathan, but bussing is the only possible scenario when ecto is trying to thwart his own lynch.

CKD 326: CKD thinks Ecto 325 was a good post, says he'll keep his vote on muffin but wants to hear more from jonathan. Again, CKD is steadfast with his vote, and is continuing other lines of dialogue, despite the fact that muffin is at L-1. This is exactly what ecto said a protown player should do, even if it looks like a lynch is inevitable or you are sure you found scum.

Vi 332: Vi replaces bogre, and comes to a conclusion that lynching muffin is a good idea. This is the first time I really felt that muffin was in serious trouble of getting lynched.

CKD 336: CKD likes Vi's entrance into the game. Discounts wolf's post that vi was being hypocrital by not voting or FoSing. Wants to hear jonathan reply to Vi's post. Again, more discussion dialogue other than referring to the muffin lynch. Again, if CKD is bussing, he's doing a very good job of simply being patient about it, and is still possibly damaging his cause by continuing to facilitate discussion.

muffin's lack of anything is telling.

CKD's first post that can be interpretted as "ok, let's get this muffin lynch over now"

Ecto 341: ecto's first stand against the muffin lynch. Says if Vi is ok, and muffin was viewed as being bogre's partner, then the case is muffin is starting to unravel.

coug 343: coug continues to demand that muffin claim, aparently oblivious to even considering ecto 341.

CKD 345: CKD clarifies that his case on muffin has little if anything to do with bogre. Actually, out of the 4 of us still alive who voted for muffin, CKD came up with the best evidence in support of muffin being scum, and it had nothing to with bogre or the utility lynch potential. CKD also implies here that he disagrees with ecto and still wants muffin to claim.

CKD 346: CKD turns to question me about a comment I made, depite that muffin is on the verge of being lynched and he seems pretty sure muffin is scum.

for the record, this is why my posts are long. when I tried to keep a post short and concise, it ended up being a short, incomplete thought. I do need to learn how to use less words to get an idea across.

Ecto 347: claims he's not defending muffin, simply asking others to re-evaluate their cases. Doesn't think muffin needs to claim, and wants CKD to give a brief summary of muffin's case without any influence about bogre.

Ecto 348: comments on CKD 346's question about me.

wolf 350: clarifies why he thought vi was being hypocrital, but is satisfied with Vi's answer.

Rhinox 351: Hopefully I cleared up any issues pertaining to the question in CKD 346. i also dialogue a bit regarding ecto and what is and isn't defending a player, respond to a comment from Vi, and express satisfaction with wolf 350.

Ecto 353: Attempts to debunk accusations Vi made about muffin. IMO, this is no longer asking someone to reaffirm thier positions on muffin, this is defending muffin for Vi's accusations. It should have been muffin to explain that Vi's accusations were wrong. Ecto also says this:

There are some determined players on this lynch. So certain.

This particular line perked my attention at the time, but I didn't comment on it. After defending muffin, ecto threw this line in I believe as a first attempt to set up a later attack on someone for bussing muffin if muffin got lynched. The only way ecto would be doing that now is if he already knew muffin was scum despite having just defended muffin. I think this was the point where ecto decided he was going to try to get away with defending muffin because "no scum would so obviously defend their scum partner" and also set up the current attack on CKD for bussing muffin.

jon 357: big post, but thinks muffin is scum and will wait for a claim.

ecto 358: ecto continues to defend muffin against Vi. To clarify, when you start to debunk specific accusations against a player other than yourself, it IS defending that player.

vi 359: vi asks ecto if we shouldn't lynch muffin, where should we focus?

ecto 360: ecto half-answers Vi's question. Ecto expresses we have no choice but to wait for muffin's claim, although he feels that he's demonstrated the case on muffin is not enough to warrent that situation. Calls again for people to justify their positions on muffin (despite the fact that most (Me, Vi, and CKD) of us already had), and doesn't provide an alternative to muffin at this point.

ecto 361: ecto says his previous post 325 seems valid since Vi seems town to people. (I guess this means ecto thinks we should be considering jonathan and not muffin at this point - but I don't think this was a very convincing way to say it)

*Vi analyzes jonathan - says it is inconclusive, other players comment that they're waiting on muffin*

CKD 366: requests prod status on muffin

Rishi 367: Prop picked up at some previous point to this particular post.

ckd 368: ckd elaves for the weekend.

muffinhead 373: finally we get our claim.

And the rest, as they say, is history.

I hope this will clarify to ecto and everyone why if I'm forced to choose between ecto and CKD, I have no choice but to choose ecto as the scum. 1 problem I've noticed is that (intentionally or not), ecto's defense created an implicit false dilemna - either ecto is scum, or ckd is scum. I think I've found much evidence that sheds doubt on the idea that CKD bussed muffin. On the fip side, I was unable to find little if any evidence the shed doubt on ecto being scum. Ecto will no doubt argue that is because I'm already biased towards him being scum, but I don't think I am.

The problem I see is, ecto is equally convinced that ckd is scum as I am that he is scum. And if I assume right now that ecto really is town, I can't buy into the case on CKD. The inherent false dilamna I fell into was that one or the other must be scum, and since I don't believe ecto's case that CKD is scum, then ecto must be scum. That is not necessarily true, nor does it clear ecto.

Looking throught the thread like I did, a couple posts from wolf caught my attention. He expressed suspision on muffin early, but never voted until he put muffin at L-1. When Vi replaced in, it seemed like he was trying to get Vi to hammer as quickly as possible. If anyone bussed muffin, I would believe it is most probable that it was wolf.

Also, ecto 325 and 361 seem to imply that jonathan would have been the better case yesterday besides CKD. Well, I haven't seen anything from jonathan that would change anyone's opinion of him, so why has ecto ignored jonathan's existence today and instead been furiously targeting ckd?

I've been giving jonathan a lot of grief. I do believe he needs to participate more, but a lot of his posts yesterday were better than i gave him credit for.

Coug just wanted to see muffin burn. I don't think his play was at all consistent with bussing. If coug is scum, he is an sk-predator.

And Cass, she's kind of a null read for me right now. That makes me nervous, but I don't think.

In conclusion, ecto, while I recognize your right not to claim, I personally can not consider unvoting right now when I feel your target (ckd) is much more likely town than you are. In other words, you defense has been noted, but I don't feel its good enough. I don't need to aks you to claim because that would mean I'm second guessing my vote. If others who have power to hammer want to hear you claim before they hammer, thats their right to ask. Only an extremely good and believable role claim now will even get me to consider unvoting. If you truely feel you are destined to be lynched today, then yes, you should claim. No role is worth taking to the death if you're town. But as Cass explained, I too don't like your post 500 for appealing to our emotions.

[Rhinox]

511 is the type of post I expected from ecto a couple days ago. The kind that makes me re-consider.

On thing: I personally don't feel that either you or CKD is scum and there are no other options - I felt that the type of defense+attack on ckd combination you were using was creating an inherant dilemna. It felt like your defense was to make CKD look scummier. Since I couldn't believe the case on CKD, there was no reason to doubt I had my vote in the right place.

you did mix up one paragraph - the "to be honest" tell was what got CKD to vote muffin... but thats not important. I don't really care who first outed clock. Thats not important to me. If clock was an independant sk, any player in the game would have been happy to see him killed.

regarding the setup, considering newbie games have 2 scum in a group of 9, 2 scum in a group of 12 seems favored in the towns favor, unless its an all vanilla/goon setup. I think in 10 vanilla-2 goon setup, that has never been won by the town on this site? someone correct me if I'm wrong...

Also, apologies for reading the one line wrong.

The guy was at L-1....people were foaming at the mouth to lynch him before a claim. We didnt even know if he needed replacing at that time. I dont lynch in that situation, and neither should anyone else. Calling for patience was exactly the right move.

You are correct that Vi made a statement to the tune of wondering if he should even give muffin another chance to post - but saying people were foaming a the mouth is a bit overstated. For the most part, almost everybody explicitly stated many times that they wanted to hear muffin claim before anybody hammered.

And as for the last part, my response is the only reason I singled out you and CKD is because of your posts - you would have me believe you were town, and you would have me believe CKD was scum (until recently). Part of the reason for that is in one post, you told me that I only thought my arguments were valid because I was arguing alongside scum (presumedly, you were referring to CKD). When I couldn't agree with your case on CKD, I logically came to the conclusion that my arguments seemed valid on their own merit.

So you're Flower huh? Knowing how important flower was to the whiskers in the show, I would definately think twice before lynching that particular role. What I hate doing is trying to deduce whether we have a mod who's bastardly enough to give THAT particular name to a scum. Assuming a random distribution, there's no reason to say he wouldn't have. Assuming that whiskers were picked first, and safe names were filled in later, there is absolutely no reason flower should be left off the whiskers side in this game (unless we have bastard moddery).

Regardless, I'm afraid of what we might lose by lynching flower, and I'm all for more discussion.

unvote

to prevent a hammer for now.

This doesn't remotely mean I think you're town all of a sudden - but I do agree that an entire days conversation shouldn't focus on only 1 or 2 players. Don't think I won't return my vote later in the day if nobody can come up with a case on anybody else.

Here are three points I would like to see discussed before anybody gets lynched today:
1: Jonathan and his lurking.
2: Coug and the possibility he could be an sk
3: The slight possibility that wolf bussed muffin
4: Anything at all anybody wants to question about me or my play.

(regarding 4, I would rather be looked over early in the game, rather than facing the onslaught later in the game that I was never scrutinized, I was too town, etc.)

[Rhinox]

Jonathan: I can believe your claim. If it makes any sense, one of the possibilities that I was thinking was that you might have a power role, and that would explain your lurking. Thats why I always mentioned your lurking without pressuring you heavily. Eventually, you would have to answer for it, and I'm not sure I have any reason to doubt you would be making it up now... It explains why you never hammered ecto... and mitch the lookout is also 100% believable and accurate to the show. however... it WOULD be quite the gambit if you and ecto were scum together... but i'm actually leaning more towards you are telling the truth.

If this is true, then my role no longer has utilization to be kept hidden. Presumedly, both jonathan, ecto, and cass would all be nk targets before me (well, one of ecto or cass

could

be an sk), and my goal was to appear to be the most protown, most obvious nk target. I'm no longer the most obvious nk target, so...

I am Axel, a meerkat pup. Babies are cute right? well thats my power. When the commandoes try to kill me, they will spare me when they see how cute I am. There's a catch - i'm vulnerable to predators, and of course I can be lynched.

i realized that this might be a little unbelievable in the event I ever had to claim, so I've breadcrumbed earlier in the thread. First, early in the game I made this comment in my 28th post:

Vote: CKD because we're not only hunting scum... there are potentially more predator roles out there, and if Bogre and Muffin do happen to be scum together, I could see CKD filling in as a predator role quite nicely.

And I'm actually more worried about predators than I am the commandoes. Daykills are scary and unpredictable.

The part I bolded was intended to be the breadcrumb. Also, every other time I made a big emphasis on the fact that I was continuing to search for predators, this is why.

I thought about claiming today anyways - even before jonathan claimed. Its getting to the point in the game where there are no longer obvious kills, and if I do die (other than being lynched, of course) the town will learn a lot about the remaining scum roles in the game knowing I have immunity to the commandos.

This is also why I ignored the fact initially that Vi's role was a bodyguard type role - I knew I was a pup, and I doubted that I would get double protection. I didn't really think though that there might be other pups.

I still don't believe CKD to be commando, but of course I'm not 100% sure. If jonathan is telling the truth, then either coug or wolf are commando. It will take a closer look at both of them to determine who, exactly.

CKD, question for ya: earlier you thought coug might be an sk. Are you voting for him for that reason now, or do you think he could be commando?

So, whichever commando targeted me night 1? sorry Yeah, it could have been a doc that got lucky, or it could be that I played D1 just how I wanted to and got you scum to target me.

[Rhinox]

EBWOP:

I am Axel, a

whiskers

pup. Babies are cute right? well thats my power. When the commandoes try to kill me, they will spare me when they see how cute I am. There's a catch - i'm vulnerable to predators, and of course I can be lynched.

fixed.

[Rhinox]

Rhino, I think that Coug is a SK (pred) maybe even mafia (but doubtful). If you take jon's claim at face value...then either you or wolf are mafia....if you are mafia, you are playing a good game, so I am leaning wolf. However, I am not 100% confident of jon's claim, but I have no reason to question it at the moment. Coug and Ecto were at the top of my scum list today...if jon is vouching for Ecto, then my vote returns to Coug, unless anything else happens.

also, getting close to the big date (see sig)...might be a very light poster till Tuesday.

The reason I asked is, we don't even know if we have an sk. With all of the claims, if they're all believed, we've pretty much increased our chances today of lynching commando to 50/50 between wolf and coug (0% if jon is lying). Out of the 7 of us, at least 5 of us could still be sk's (all 7 if you don't believe either mine or jon's claim). Thats somewhere between a 14%-20% chance that coug or any other individual is the sk that we're not sure even exists. If you don't think coug is commando, the logical choice should be to lynch wolf. It gives us the highest chance of hitting scum, and if wolf is scum, that would be pretty solid evidence that jonathan is telling the truth, and actually might just end the game unless we actually do have an sk, or a 3rd commando.

Also CKD, my big date is next June. So congrats, good luck, and let me know what its like.

======================================================================

Things to keep in mind:
-If there are 2 commandos remaining, and we mislynch today, tomorrow is (probably) LyLo. If we blindly follow jonathan and lynch both wolf and coug today and tomorrow and jon is lying, its game over.
-If there is 1 commando remaining, 2 mislynches would put us at LyLo. If the plan is to lynch wolf and coug, IMO jon should probably investigate CKD. Assuming no sk and you all believe my claim, either 1 of ckd, coug, or wolf will be known as scum no later than tomorrow and we'll win, or jonathan is nked, which will prove jon is telling the truth, and we'll still win by the 3rd lynch knowing who the remaining lynch choices should be. Either way, we shouldn't be able to mislynch twice without proving that jon is lying, so unless we have 2 commandos remaining, or 1 commando and 1 sk, we've already won.

======================================================================

It is interesting to note that jonathan83 didn't counterclaim when muffinhead claimed cop yesterday, but I'm not going to hold that against him as there may have been a reason not to do so.

I was thinking the same thing, expecially since Jon wrote his about Ecto, who he said he investigated night one:

Ectomancer said he had this strategy where a claimed cop shouldn't be lynched until LYLO or he turns in a guilty result, but this works only if there is only one scum left. It might have been a genuine mistake on his part. The lack of questions from him does not mean that he is not pursuing a line of investigation, I think, since there already were other people pressing muffinhead.

So I do not really think he is scum, at least not yet. However, I also think he should claim.

Cass hasn't been posting much, but I guess I could say the same for myself.

I think StrangerCoug deserves more scrutiny however, for his Day 1 actions at the very least.

?!?

FoS: jonathan83

until I see an explanation.

I'm up in the air with this line of thinking... There are a number of reasons to explain jonathan's actions. For 1, if he really is a cop, I think he's played it perfectly. His lurking prevented him from being a scum target - and as such, coming out and outright defending ecto would have been a dead giveaway imo. Same for not counterclaiming muffin - muffin's claim wasn't believable on its own, and muffin was still going to be lynched. Why would jonathan out himself when he didn't need to?

However, its the timing of jonathan's claim that slightly worries me. Basically, after the pressure was starting to come off ecto, jonathan made his claim before the pressure really got onto him. If I can believe that jonathan would have played cop so perfectly, I am also forced to believe that jonathan should have forseen that if ecto wasn't lynched, he was going to be pressured (possibly into claiming). That means, either jonathan was ok with letting ecto get lynched to continue to hide his role, or he should have claimed much sooner to spare ecto and himself (knowing he would be the next on the grill).

If jonathan is the only scum remaining, it doesn't worry me if he's lying because as I've already explained, I feel we've already won. Even if you believe all of me, CKD, coug, and wolf are potentially commando based on jon telling the truth, it was suicide for jonathan to make this fake claim if he is the sole remaining scum. If there is more than 1 scum remaining, it worries me very much if he's lying.


My personal belief is that I'm now siding with ecto's mod experience that there is probably only 1 scum remaining. I do believe ecto to be town because his name is the one meerkat that I believe has to have a whiskers role in the game. That also means I do believe jon's claim because I don't believe he would be suicidal, which also means I believe Cass to be town. I will spare CKD today and label him "probably town" pending an investigation result if jon lives through the night. Obviously I know I'm a whisker, and of course there will be doubts about any claim, but I hope my breadcrumbs are enough to verify my role, and if that still isn't enough, then you would have to believe that I've been making comments all game to set up this fake claim, and then made my claim at the time when the general feeling towards me was "town". To come full circle, that means that either wolf or coug should be lynched today, and if you don't think coug is commando, the obvious choice is wolf. If that doesn't end the game, and jonathan lives, by process of elimination we should know if CKD or coug is commando tomorrow. If jonathan dies, then I would be for coug tomorrow, and then if necessary that leaves CKD ftw the next day. I just have to go read through coug's and wolf's posts one more time to verify which of the 2 I personally find more likely to be commando.

Q.E.D. (hehe)

[Rhinox]

Any holes?

Yeah. If there is more than one scum remaining. 2 commandos left means 2 mislynches and its game over.

[Rhinox]

hmmm... since Rishi is out until sunday, I see no reason to rush my vote. I think conversation before twilight is better than conversation during twilight. I still haven't decided if I truely believe coug is commando (although yes, he has been very scummy). I'm just cautious of lynching a player who might be an sk when we're not even sure we have an sk.

Coug, jonathan has answered to your FoS. Now i have a couple questions for you:

1) Do you believe there is only one scum remaining in the game and that scum is commando?
2) If jonathan is telling the truth, one of Me, CKD, You, or Wolf bussed their scum partner. Obviously, I know it wasn't me, and I've already made my claim. I don't believe it to be CKD, but there is always a chance I'm wrong. In your opinion, who do YOU think fits best in the role of commando?

[Rhinox]

Hey all, I know a couple of you are itching to hammer. I'm ok with it, but I have an analytical post comparing wolf and coug that I would like to make before we lynch coug. I just ran out of time, and i won't be able to post it until late tonight/early morning. I ask for everyone to wait until then so I can make my post, because I have a couple final questions to ask both wolf and coug.

@coug: sorry to trap you in with my last question 1, but if you believe jonathan, and you believe there is only 1 commando scum and no sk remaining in the game, I have no problem seeing you lynched today because it is simply a means to an end.

[Rhinox]

Sorry for taking so long. Got back later last night than expected. Here's my post.

==================================================================

Coug and Wolf Partial PbPA, Day 2 only:

PAGE 10
wolf 233: wolf thought it was wrong for Cass to state that looking for connections to Clock after TBW's death seemed pointless
wolf 235: continues to ask for clarification from Cass.
wolf 237: wolf continues discussion with Cass.
coug 238: coug's "mafiamann seemed like a VI" comment.
wolf 239: wolf asks for clarifiction on a VI.
coug 240: coug clarifies.
wolf 241: wolf reiterates his implied suspision of Cass that believing no info can be learned from deaths doesn't make sense.
wolf 244: wolf lays out his case on (Bogre)/Vi and follows with an FoS.
wolf 248: Wolf states he thinks ecto is trying really hard to scum hunt and gives an example of a post of ecto's he likes.

(Editor's note: wolf 248 is the first post from either player that sticks out to me as potentially scummy. This is very conditionally dependent on a number of assumptions being true, but this post

could

be viewed as wolf attempting to buddy up to ecto a little)

*coug 249: coug dismisses discussion about his day 1 play with an

argumentum ad nauseam

. He clarifies his earlier VI statement and thinks we should look for signs that we were manipulated by scum into lynching the scummy looking mafiamann.

PAGE 11
wolf 254: Expresses liking to a post from Cass analyzing Clock/TBW death. Concedes that its probably case closed. Agrees with me and makes a statement about self hammers.

(Editor's note: potentially more buddying up to both Cass an I)

*wolf 257: Expresses a desire for posts from 3 lurkers (muffin, Bogre, and Jonathan) FoS's Jonathan to go along with his FoS on Bogre and threatens to vote Bogre if he doesn't respond soon.
coug 258: coug having technical difficulties.
wolf 260: wolf calls bogre hypocritical.
wolf 263: wolf reponds to a post from muffin explaining what he liked about a post of ecto's.
wolf 264: wolf expresses dissatisfaction with bogres answer to his suspisions and votes bogre.
coug 267: no more technical difficulties.
coug 269: calls Cass opportunistic and votes her.
coug 271: coug justifies his vote on Cass.
coug 273: coug justifies some more.

PAGE 12
coug 275: coug unvotes Cass after a simple explanation and unvotes. Says he'll look into bogre.
coug 276: coug gives a couple points against Bogre and then votes bogre.

(Editor's note: coug 275 and coug 276 were posted 3 minutes apart. That means, it took less than 3 minutes after coug said he would look at bogre to find a couple scummy sounding comments (which had already been brought up by others), decide that was enough to place a vote on bogre (the bandwagon is really building at this point), and then actually create that post to vote. I think after unvoting someone, I would always take more than 3 minutes to decide on a new target to vote.)

coug 278: coug asks if failure to pay attention is scummy.
coug 280: coug presents an excuse for missing the Cass's comments on bogre and concedes that after reading Cass's post, thinks she brought up some good points.
wolf 282: re-explains his case on bogre to CKD.
wolf 284: sees a point about coug, but explains away cougs actions as bad goofing around and honest mistakes. Likes the case on bogre better.
wolf 285: asks for a vote count and prods on jon, bogre, and muffin.
wolf 290: wolf FoS's muffin, explains why he thinks coug made an honest mistake, and is very critical of muffin for missing his case on bogre. believes it is highly likely bogre will be scum.
wolf 291: asks for more opinions of everyone from jonathan.
coug 292: thinks he was misrepresented by muffin, and FoS's. Gives a quick forum use lesson to muffin about the drop down boxes.
coug 293: EBWOP for typo.
wolf 298: justifies again his case on bogre.

PAGE 13
coug 304: gives CKD the benefit of the doubt over the to be honest tell due to not wanting to doubt CKD's experience. unvotes bogre and votes muffin.

(Editor's note: coug did jump off a popular wagon to vote muffin, although the bogre wagon did lose a little steam when CKD got off it to vote muffin. Still, this was only the 2nd vote on muffin, and I'm not sure this was the time to say "hey, I think I should bus my partner". Actually, based on the way coug threw his votes around to this point, I agree that if coug is scum, he fits the mold of an sk much better than a commando.)

coug 306: responds to a post from cass with a major HoS on bogre. says he still doesn't like him.

(Editor's Note: possibly more appeasement? Why is there a need to even make this post?)

coug 312: accuses muffin of twisting his words, being hypocritical, , being uninterested, and explains that he didn't think bogre was cleared, only that muffin made a better lynch target than bogre now.
wolf 314: unvoted bogre, but leaves a Major FoS on him. Presents a lot of evidence supporting a link between bogre and muffin being scum. Votes muffin (is the L-1 vote).
coug 316: tells muffin to claim or die.
coug 320: agrees with ecto about the setup probably being 2 commando, 1 sk predator.

PAGE 14
wolf 333: likes Vi's first post as a replacement, but also calls Vi hypocritical for thinking jon was scummy for not commiting to anything, but didn't vote muffin although he was good with the muffin lynch.

(Editor's note: I find this post very suspect. The message I take from this post is that wolf thought Vi was scummy for NOT hammering muffin in his first post in the game. I realize that Vi replaced a player who wolf thought was very scummy, but I feel this comment was a stretch at best.

coug 334: coug verifies for Vi why he made the VI statement.
wolf 335: EBWOP for typos.
coug 338: good with Vi hammering muffin, but wants him to wait until muffin claims.
coug 343: asks again for a claim and requests a prod on muffin.

PAGE 15
wolf 350: explains why he questioned Vi for not taking a stand, but said he was satisfied with Vi's response.

(Editor's note: So the interpretation we should take from this post is that wolf didn't think Vi had the right to accuse jonathan of being uncommitive? Otherwise, it reads like "Vi was accusing Jonathan of being uncommitive, but didn't commit to vote for who he wanted lynched. Thats contradictory." Yes, it would have been contradictory for someone who had played the whole game similarly to jonathan, and looking back now, I'm not sure why wolf even needed a clarification from Vi at all.)

coug 356: coug remarking about a joke Vi made.
coug 363/364: coug says he's just waiting around for muffin to claim.

(Editor's note: interesting comment to make here. As ecto explained, even when you are sure you found scum, you should never stop scum hunting. A loose translation means that conversation shouldn't stop because you're waiting for a claim from someone you think is scum.)

Page 16
*coug 380: coug gives 2 reasons for disbelieving muffin's claim: he didn't agree with investigating Cass, and my post 378.
wolf 381: wolf pipes in to say he agrees muffins claim is too much of a coincidence.
coug 383: comments about jonathan, and says he's fine with a hammer.
*wolf 386: Gives a long explanation of why he still thinks muffin is the best lynch.

(Editor's note: wolf gives some specific reasons why he doesn't believe ecto, as well as a reason for not believing cop claims in general - essentially, policy lynching. Thats not a problem, I just think its interesting.)

coug 391: coug makes a tongue-in-cheek comment confirming for jon that muffin could not have been a paranoid cop.
wolf 393: wolf argues how it doesn't make sense for muffin to be cop based on the wiki article I posted immediately after muffin's claim.
coug 395: coug asks ecto why he wants to leave muffin alive.
PAGE 17
coug 404: expresses second thoughts on lynching muffin, but remains that muffin has no dedication, and hence is not protown.

==================================================================

Thoughts:

whew... that was a lot of posts. If I believe jon's claim, then either me, CKD, wolf, or coug are commando. Based on the flavor of the last night scene, we know the commandos are still around. Having already looked at CKD, I highly doubt he is commando based on how he played the muffin lynch. If I can believe my role PM, I know I'm not commando. That means, as I've been saying, either wolf or coug are commando. The point of this post was for me to think out loud and work out who that should be.

My conclusion is that if I was 100% sure that jon is telling the truth, and 100% sure that the commando was either wolf or coug, I think the commando is probably wolf. Coug's play was sparatic, even scummy. But when coug voted muffin, muffin was still the "third party candidate". he unvoted bogre, who was still quite scummy looking before Vi replaced in. Granted, there WAS a wagon on coug that was pretty popular at the time. Coug's sparatic voting around reads to me like coug was trying to do whatever he could to find a case on anyone to get the pressure off of himself. I do think that coug could very well be an sk, IF we knew we had an sk. Its possible that after the wagon started on muffin, coug saw a chance to get the heat off of himself by fueling muffin's wagon and thought he would look better if he bussed his partner. Although, even when it looked like muffin was going to get lynched, coug stated many times he wanted to wait for claim, which I interpret as a call for more discussion. This doesn't seem like something a scum bussing his partner would do to me, other than to put on a show. Ironically, any benefit of bussing is no longer valid because if we believe jonathan, then there must be a commando on muffins wagon.

Wolf, on the other hand has me scratching my head. He was very vocal through the early part of D2 - and then, after muffin's wagon started, his activity noticeably dropped. Its possible he was trying to goad Vi into voting muffin before muffin had a chance to claim. The only evidence he presented towards muffin looking scum was possible links to bogre being scum, and wolf never reaffirmed his position on muffin independent of Vi/Bogre. Wolf never asked for muffin to claim, nor did he ever examine other players after voting for muffin (aside from the questions he asked Vi after he replaced in). Based on looking at both coug and wolf, and assuming that 1 of them is commando, I truely believe it seems much more probable that wolf is the commando. Of course, if there is only one scum left, and jonathan is telling the truth, it doesn't much matter who we lynch because we're all but guarenteed victory.

Questions I have:

Coug:

1)In post 249, you thought we should look for someone who might have manipulated the town into lynching mafiamann. I never saw a post where you mentioned any results of that investigation. Did you find any evidence pointing to anyone leading the town into mafiamann's lynch?
2)In post 380, when you're giving justification for lynching muffin, you say I presented damning evidence in my post 278 (where I presented the wiki article on Yossarian as a guide). What part of my post were you actually using as the damning evidence against muffin?

Wolf:

1) In post 257, you express desire for content from 3 lurkers: muffin, jonathan, and bogre. You FoSed both jonathan and Bogre for lurking, but never muffin. Why?
2) In post 386, you state reasons why you believe muffin is the best lynch. You state a previous game where the town was led to their own slaughter by a fake cop claim. How much does this worry come in to play in determining whether or not to believe jonathan's cop claim?

CKD:
In your post 336, you said you would note wolf 333 for later. Are you taking it into consideration now?

==================================================================

A thought for everyone: What, if anything, should we be able to take from this post of muffin's before he died?

well i will some up my thoughts on the game. Rhinox, jonathen and wolf all look town from my view. Vi looks much better but t be The rest could potentially be scum.

[Rhinox]

About the post by muffin that rhinox quoted, I'm not sure. It's strange to put me in his town list, and it's strange that cass was left out (as she said).

This is what I was getting at. I was wondering why muffin-scum would say jonathan looks town. Did anyone else really get a town vibe from jonathan based on the way he was playing? Of course, muffin was scum so he would know if jonathan is his partner or not. Muffin also said wolf seemed town. That makes more sense, but did muffin

really

think wolf was town or did he just say so. Or, does this post of muffin's even matter at all? I'm not sure we can decisively guess which for sure, but is it more likely that muffin knew that jonathan and/or wolf were town because he was scum, or is it possible he lumped 1 of them in with who he thought was town in order to protect his scum partner?


@ecto: Keep in mind if you believe my claim, I'm not exactly vanilla. wolf and coug both claimed vanilla, mafiamann was vanilla, TBW I guess had an sk bomb role, Vi may or may not have been a bodyguard role, clock was sk, and muffin was of course, mafia. Both your role and CKD'd role also seem to be something more than vanilla to me, jonathan claimed cop, and Cass I'm not sure either way if she's just vanilla or something more.

What I'm saying is, in this game of 12 based on claims, there are at least 3 roles with some town power (commando immunity, sk bomb, and cop) and possibly 6 if I think ecto, CKD, and Vi all have/had some role more than vanilla. Also, 3 townies either claimed or confirmed, 1 sk confirmed, 1 commando confirmed, and 1 undetermined. I've never modded, but that seems way too shifted in the towns favor to me. If coug or wolf is commando, that makes it even worse because we "lose" 1 more vanilla from the list.

Also, I just thought of something, but even IF jonathan is telling the truth, I don't think we can say for sure 100% that ecto and Cass are cleared. We completely forgot about a godfather type role (cop immunity). A mafia roleblocker wouldn't be out of the question either, considering all the power roles on the town side. I think I've just re-convinced myself that there is probably more than 1 scum remaining and/or whoever claimed or incinuated they had a power role might be lying.

[Rhinox]

I insinuated a power role myself. What do you think about it?
Do you think I was trying to mislead the town by saying 8 vanilla?

The way you made your claim, plus your name, makes me think you are something more than vanilla that you don't want to reveal. CKD said something to the tune of he breadcrumbed his role but didn't want to tell us yet, and we would understand why when we found out his role, so that makes me think CKD is either lying scum or has something more than vanilla. I have commando immunity, which I think is pretty powerful. Add in jonathan's cop claim, potentially whatever Vi was, and TBW as a bomb and that is potentially 6 town roles. I don't think you were being intentionally misleading by saying 8 vanilla.

I think that, even should no more power roles be revealed, that cop/doc/bomb-SK-3 scum is a setup that can reasonably be expected to be considered balanced by someone (not saying that someone would be me).

Would you say the same for Cop/Doc/Commando-immune townie/bomb-sk-3 scum? What if also you include 2 more town roles? What if you just assume the claimed and confirmed roles: Cop/Commando-immune townie/bomb-sk-3 scum?

Also, considering SK's are at a disadvange anyways, do you think having a bomb means that 2 sk's and 1 bomb is a little more balanced?

[Rhinox]

I'm still pretty certain curiouskarmadog is scum

Do you think he is commando or predator and why?

but if curiouskarmadog is not scum and jonathan83 is telling the truth, then by process of elimination at least one of wolframnhart and I scum.

Before you can say this, you have to show good evidence that CKD is commando. If you can't, that further supports that either you or wolf are commando.

There's a lot of setup speculation going on right now. I'd rather not outguess the mod with all these theories—detracts from scumhunting too much.

The setup is very important at the monent (imo) It effects the way we should be scum hunting, and very much the outcome of the game. For example:

1) If we assumer there is 1 scum commando remaining, that would pretty much mean we could believe jonathan, and there is high probability that either wolf or coug are the commando. It takes 2 mislynches to get to lylo, and there is a very high probability of a win for the town.

2) If we assume 2 commando scum remaining, or chances of winning greatly depend on making the correct assumption: do we believe jon, or do we not. If we do believe jon (and he's scum), we're already set up for a mislynch today, and tomorrow is LyLo where we again have to decide do we still believe jon, or not. If we don't believe jon, and we lynch him today, we'll either hit scum, or we'll confirm cass and ecto (one of them would be nked) and we'll go into LyLo with 1 confirmed townie, and a group of me, CKD, coug, and wolf, 2 of which being commando.

3) If we assume 1 commando scum and 1 predator sk, then we should still be able to believe jon, we should still be able to limit who is probably commando to either wolf or coug, and 1 or either me, ckd, coug, or wolf is sk. From where I'm sitting, thats a 66% of lynching scum today (I'm not lynching myself).

So, if we think there is only 1 commando remaining, regardless of whether or not there is an sk, my vote will go for either coug or wolf today. If we think there are 2 commando remaining, my gut tells me we should policy lynch jonathan just in case he's lying and because I'm not sure I can buy right now that out of CKD, wolf, and coug, 2 of them form a scum pair. If he is a cop, it would at least confirm a townie (well 2, but 1 would probably be nked), and then from where I'm sitting, 2 of CKD, wolf, and coug are commando. Still, pretty good odds for the town. My theory behind this is that I'd rather be forced to not believe jonathan today and be wrong and still have a decent chance of winning, than mislynch today and have to decide whether or not to believe jonathan tomorrow when it could cost the town the game. (and keep in mind, I'm only considering policy lynching if the consensus is there is probably 2 commando remaining, which is why I've been asking about the setup.)

So if you guys could humor me, I'd like to propose a little poll. After all this conversation, what scum do you think is left in the game?

A) 1 commando
B) 2 commando
C) 3 commando

I hope everyone will answer. I haven't been able to make up my mind yet, which is why I can't just settle into a direction for my vote.

[Rhinox]

@Rhinox

Don't think it is C, but could be more A. Kind of alot to deal with if there were 2 more commandos and another SK. If there is no other SK, i would see 2 more commandos.

When I said 2 more commandos, i meant that means there would not be another SK.

[Rhinox]

I'm finding the logic of this a bit hard to follow. Why do you think wolframnhart and I would immediately suspect each other if we were town?

I claimed right after Rhinox defended ckd and then said ecto's post makes him reconsider. Rhinox has also generally been pro-town so far in all his posts. And his defence of ckd is believable, which means that there are only two scum candidates left (you and wolframnhart). Obviously you would say that you aren't scum, so there's only one left.

I agree with your analysis, but you may be digging yourself a grave. For example, you're concluding that coug and wolf are both commando together since they haven't tried to attack each other. If we chose 1 of them to lynch today and they show up town, that will (imo) cause me to lose trust in your claim if I link it to your belief that BOTH of coug and wolf are commando.

Also, obvious other options are that coug and wolf really are both town, or only 1 of them is scum, but he's trying to disprove the theory that at least 1 of them is scum. For example, if either coug or wolf or both bought into the theory that 1 of the 2 of them were scum, then they would both be the next 2 lynches assuming we hit the town first. Therefore, had coug and wolf started going after each other, we probably would have either lynched the 1 of them that were scum, or we'd have lynched them both under the assumption that at least 1 of them HAVE to be scum. To be more direct, If I'm coug and I'm scum and someone proves through assumptions and logic that either me or wolf are scum, and I try to say its wolf to keep myself from getting lynched, once wolf shows up town, I'm going to be lynched anyways. (that was all hypothetical, of course)

[Rhinox]

Well, this game has crawled to a standstill...

I've laid out all my concerns, and now I guess its time to make a decision. I say we give jon the benefit of the doubt today. out of ckd, coug, and wolf, wolf seems like the best possibility of being commando. If wolf is town, we can re-evaluate how we feel towards jonathan and everyone else tomorrow.

vote: wolf

[Rhinox]

Rhino, why did you claim? You weren’t under any pressure (as far as I could see) after Jon’s claim. Why didn’t you wait? Wouldn’t it have been better to claim only if you had gotten some pressure..there might be a chance that you could have foiled a NK if you remained silent.

I believe I explained why when I made my claim, but I'll happily reiterate. I felt my role was useful to keep hidden as long as I could make myself apear to be extremely pro-town - so much that I would be an obvious NK target. I believe I was able to do that on night 1. After Jon claimed cop and provided 2 innocents, I was no longer going to be the nk choice. Even if jon is lying, presumedly 1 of the confirmed innocents would be targeted to support jon's claim. Also, I knew that after jon's claim, I would be in that group of 4 of potential scum - I thought by claiming early I could improve our odds by making it instead a group of 3 potential scums. Finally, if I do die, a lot can be learned about the remaining roles in the game based on my death. It might prove there is an sk out there, or if the commandos want to kill me, you would know they would need to have a roleblocker. If I died before I made my role known, that sort of info would be lost with my death. So it was really that combination of events that made me decide that was a good time to claim. Maybe you would have played it differently. I think I was being helpful.

==========================================================

I also think I understand what ecto is saying about the sk needing to get rid of scum first. It goes something like this. There is currently 7 of us. Say sk DKs town {6}, we mislynch town {5}, and then scum nks town {4}. That should leave 2 town, a commando, and an sk. Sk daykills town {3} and we're now in a bad situation. Town and sk can no longer win - only move for town is to vote no lynch and make a threat that if anyone votes for you, you'll vote them back to throw the game towards the other party. Commando and Sk will have no choice but to no lynch, but if the sk no lynches, the commando will nk the sk, and then kill the townie in endgame. Unless the townie wants the sk to win, then instead of no lynching, you can try to lynch the commando with the sk, then the sk can daykill you the next day. But in this situation, I'd be happy to let the sk burn for srewing everyone over like that.

The addendum to that crazy end game is that if I were the townie in that situation, it would be a stalemate. I would no lynch to let the commando kill the sk, and then the commando won't be able to kill me in end game (unless he's also a role blocker.) However, its still a situation I hope we can avoid.

==========================================================

Also, based on rereading, if I were a betting man I would bet that coug probably isn't commando. Yes, he could be an sk, but we're not sure we even have an sk. Wolf on the other hand didn't just jump on the muffin lynch - he was the L-1 vote. During the entire discussion, wolf didn't participate in any of the discussion about any other players. He only chirped up every now and then to re-iterate why he thought muffin was the best lynch. CKD definately kept asking questions of other players, and so did coug but to a much lesser extent.

I think 2 commandos (1 being a godfather) makes a lot of sense in the setup. I think Cass could possibly be the godfather. However, ecto brings up a good point that hannibal should have been the commando godfather. Upon a recent read of the wiki, I think that is incorrect. Meerkat tribes are matriarcal. Just as Flower is (was) the dominant female and leader of the whiskers, the commandoes also have a dominant female.

Going back to the wiki, I found that the dominant female of the commandoes is Nikita. I believe if there is a commando godfather, THAT is who it should be.

[Rhinox]

I will be utterly shocked if Coug is not hung today.

The problem I have with voting coug right now is that it seems through the evidence that coug is more likely an sk - but we're not sure we have an sk. We KNOW there is at least 1 commando, and imo, wolf looks more commando than coug. Of course, its not out of the realm of possibility that coug is commando, but I don't see the specific case pointing to coug being commando.

CKD, would you be willing to outline the points against coug that point to him being commando?

[Rhinox]

Well that was quick, coug...

Lets start with what we DON'T know...

-We don't know how many scum remain, or the allignment of those scum (i.e. commando or predator)
-We don't know what group made last night's kill, and that frustrates me a little. Every other kill, we've known who made the kill. When Vi was nked, we were told the commandoes came to make the kill. Now, we get nothing.

What we DO know:

-We know, as a result of jon's death, that he was telling the truth.

Up for debate:

-there is only 1 scum remaining
-neither ecto or cass can be predators (jonathan essentially said he recieved "whisker" or "not whisker" reports which leads me to believe that sk-predators are not investigation immune, but that also sounds like something a crafty mod would put in a cop's role PM to try to throw the cop and the town off when predators ARE actually investigation-immune.)
-Either ecto or Cass could be commando godfather role.
-assuming no investigation immunities at all, then either coug or CKD would be the remaining scum (obviously, I would also be in that group, but I know what I am and I think my comments yesterday no go along way to confirming that I am indeed whisker now that wolf was scum, but I'll be happy to have that debate)
-There was no doc to protect jon last night -or- a doc chose not to protect jon last night. If there is no doc, that gives credibility to the idea that Vi was our doc role. If we do have a doc, I guess I can think of a few reasons to not protect jon.

Suggested course of action for today:

I think we have to first look to see who was pushing coug's lynch yesterday. Not necessarily who was pushing the hardest either. Coug was almost lynched very quickly yesterday after jon's claim, and for the wrong reasons. Everyone should have been hunting commando yesterday because thats what we knew was remaining. Coug was almost lynched because he was scummy and could possibly be an sk. That still might be true, however...

Using a bit of ecto's earlier logic, commando-scum would be happy to kill predator. If commando are remaining, then they're happy to help the town kill off coug because he might be a pred, but at the very least, he's an easy scummy looking townie to get lynched. If we think there are only commando remaining, then I think its a strong possibility that either ecto (as godfather) or CKD are commando. Both were quick to string up coug after jon's claim (and jonathan too, but now he's dead). Ecto unvoted after I asked to hold off the lynch, and then I made the case for lynching wolf based on the fact that we should be hunting scum, and through the process of elimination came to the conclusion that wolf should be commando. Turns out I was right.

Obviously, I felt yesterday that evidence was good that neither CKD nor ecto were commando. A strong part of my case for lynching wolf was that neither CKD nor coug seemed like commando. Actualy, I decided that out of CKD, coug, and wolf, that wolf was most likely to be commando. I guess that doesn't mean that either coug or CKD can't be wolf (and muffin's) partner.

Ecto, on the other hand, could be a godfather role, but I'm still torn. I definately think that Flower should be a whiskers role in this game, but thats really the only evidence I'm using to call ecto town. To be safe, i think I need to rescind that "evidence" because it really is simply outguessing the mod. Flower could be ecto's safe name. Ecto could be godfather.

Cass could also be godfather. Cass has been kinda under the radar all game, and has been called "innocent" twice. If we believe Cass is godfather, then we have to believe that muffin called cass innocent as a gambit, and then cass bussed wolf yesterday. I hope to hear a lot of input from cass today so as to get a better read on her role. I've been uncomfortable about her role all game, not because of anything she's said, but because she's been so hard to read.

The final possibility is that we're now dealing with an sk who kills at night. coug, obviously, is highest up on that list. I haven't been able to disprove that CKD could be sk. Ecto as an sk wouldn't suprise me. He is the one who proposed why an sk wouldn't be killing until the commando were gone. I don't really see cass as an SK.

Food for thought - if there is an sk, the sk should have also been commando hunting. CKD was pretty steadfast in his desire to have coug lynched. I never heard CKD give any reasons for why coug could be commando. Ironically, that makes me think that CKD really thought that coug was predator, which makes me think that CKD probably isn't predator. I think it would have been smart as a predator to leave the scummy looking coug alone and try to lynch commando, knowing he would still have the case to get coug lynched later after the commando were gone. Ecto was commando hunting, and of course, coug really could be a predator.

Dialogue over. Let the discussion begin...

P.S. wolf, if you're still listening, I think you played a pretty good game as scum, so don't be discouraged. It was only through process of elimination that you got lynched. You never really did anything or seemed very scummy at all throughout the game. If jon wouldn't have claimed yesterday, you probably wouldn't have even come close to getting lynched.

[Rhinox]

forgot about this game...ok checking in...post coming tomorrow.

I'm wondering if I should be concerned about all posts like this you made yesterday and now this one...

[Rhinox]

Well I really don't see a reason to question CKD's claim IF there is only 1 scum left. CKD is either telling the truth, or he's stupid. I don't think he's supid, so assuming there is 1 scum left, game over.

Now, lets hypothesize that there are 2 scum left. First, 2 commandoes (means total in the game there were 4 commando, 1 sk-pred, and 7 town). First lets realize that its LyLo. If CKD gets us to lynch coug and hes not SK and there are still 2 commando, thats game over. Town loses.

-or-

Suppose there is 1 sk and 1 commando left. Coug may very well be sk, but that doesn't necessarily clear CKD if that is so. CKD could either be a commando role sniffer thing as cass suggested, -or- maybe CKD is the last remaining commando and doesn't know if coug really is an sk or if 1 even exists. Really, the only chance he would have is to basically pray that coug really is an sk. That would definately make me think twice about lynching CKD tomorrow if coug ends up being sk now. So its possible that CKD doesn't know for sure, but its really his only chance.

However, if this is so, CKD has been setting this up ever since jon and I claimed when he commented about his breadcrumbs. Also to consider - coug's play all game to me has seemed like, if coug really is scum, he's pretty obviously sk. Is he just an easy target now, or is he really sk?

Ecto, Cass: do you 2 think we're dealing with only 1 scum remaining? your 2 roles are the only 2 that haven't been revealed yet, so its up to both of you to determine if 5 scum total in the game even seems remotely balanced knowing the town roles in the game: 1 cop (jon), 1 bomb (TBW), 1 commando-immune (Rhinox), 1 possible doc (Vi?), 1 possible sk cop (CKD?), 1 townie (MM), plus whatever your roles are vs. at least 2 commando (muffin, wolf), 1 sk (clock), and additionally either 1 of {(1 sk), (1 commando), (1 sk & 1 commando), (2 commando)}

[Rhinox]

However, Rhinox claims commando immune, so perhaps that makes it better to get the potential SK with priority?

yeah thats a very good point, but theres still 1 problem. If there are 2 commando remaining, there will be a point where I can be lynched and the town can still lose. For that reason, I'm tempted to say we should lynch CKD today for confirmation. If he's telling the truth, we should still win tomorrow. The problem I have with that is if CKD is town, coug is sk, and there is a commando godfather (either cass or ecto). That could make for 1 ugly LyLo situation and I'm not sure the town would have a chance.

I do agree that 4 commando and an sk seems a bit much in a game of 12. I think 5 scum in general seem a bit much in a game of 12, but the town has had quite a few counteracting power roles.

Jon did post that his role distinguishes between pro-whisker and anti-whisker. So CKD's claimed role does seem a bit redundant and does seem to even more unbalance this game in the town's favor. This is why I'm so unsettled. But part of the reason the game might be shifted in the towns favor at the moment is that we were able to take out an sk D1 with the bomb role, and the 2nd sk (if there is one) hasn't been killing all game (I'm guessing because he/she is afraid of dying like clock). So, if we take into consideration that at the beginning of the game, there was a potential to have 3 kills/day plus a lynch, then I guess the number and types of town power roles make a lot of sense with 2 commando and 2 sk-pred imo. There was a good chance at least 1 cop would be killed very early in the game, so having a second, albeit with a slightly different role, seems possible. I just think that we have been very fortunate (and good at finding scum) that it now seems like it was too easy and thats whats making me have 2nd thoughts.

But in hindsight now:
-4 scum, 1 sk, and 7 town technically means that after the first day and night as a worst case scenario, we could have been down to 4 town - not possible to win.
-3 scum, 2 sk and 7 town means we could have been down to 3 town after the first night - again, seems very unlikely for a town win.
-2 scum, 2 sk and 8 town means we could have been down to 4 town after the first night - not impossible to win but explains why the town need a bunch of power roles, and finally,
-3 scum, 1 sk, and 8 town means we could have been down to 5 town after the first night - not as bad as the situation above, so not as many power roles would be needed.

Given the town roles in the game, the winner is 2 scum and 2 sk as the most likely imo.

Consider this - aside from the first day's mislynch, we've hit scum every time. +1 for the town. 1 sk got killed during day 1 - good for the town, but within the game's mechanic. The mod must have planned for that in the balance. +1 for the town. If there is a 2nd sk that hasn't been making kills, thats also good for the town, but upsets the mods balance in the towns favor artificially - when you plan for an extra kill every day, that kill not being there will upset the balance. +1 for the town, unintended.

Now consider how badly it could have gone for the town if things had gone worst case scenario. clock could have killed without dying, commando could have got a kill in N1, and the 2nd SK could have killed town, and we mislynch. we're down to 4 town remaining, and 4 total scum, just after D1. An uphill battle to put it mildly. In this situation, there would have been no reason to think more scum should be needed.

So the point I'm trying to make is:

vote: coug

I think ckd has no reason to lie, because if he is, I think that he is probably the only remaining commando. If you're not sk, coug, then we'll still be able to kill ckd tomorrow ftw. As good as this seems right now for the town, technically we're still not sure we're in a guarenteed win situation. If there were 5 scum in the game and things went bad the first day and night, we could have been in a guarenteed loss situation before the second day! Even with 2 commando and 2 sk, things could have been very bad for us whiskers. But I think this lynch will probably end the game.

[Rhinox]

Yeah. Rishi warned me about that. Apologies.

yeah, it didn't take much work to figure out which game you're talking about... but I'm not about to read through page after page of a game I'm not in to figure out what you're alluding to.

All I'm going to say, is that whatever you want to tell us about, there should have been a way to say it in general terms without referencing the events of the game it occurred in. If its something specific to that particular game, then chances are it won't apply here anyways. You can't use 1 specific example to make a broad generalization anyways. So I'm not holding my breath for some huge revelation.

[Rhinox]

Who needs one specific game to make the point that curiouskarmadog's claim doesn't make a whole lot of sense with the setup anyway? Fakeclaims like that have probably happened a lot.

Actually, I just explained why it made perfect sense. Assuming we're dealing with 2 sks and 2 commandoes, thats 4 kills per day potentially (a lynch, a commando hit, and 2 sk hits). I don't find it hard to believe at all that there would be 2 cops.

Its also possible that jon misinterpretted his role. Its possible he couldn't detect sk's or predators. Or maybe, his role said he could distinguish between pro-town and anti-town, but as a twist, predators were immune to cop investigations (whereas coug is not really a cop, more of a sniffer.)

So to make an unsupported claim that 2 cops is unbelievably unbalanced is not going to be enough to save you. Sorry.

[Rhinox]

I want everybody who thinks there are two commando and two SK to explain why they think so if they have not yet done so. And no, I'm not going to buy "the SK is afraid to kill because there might be another bomb".

c'mon, there are reasons why an sk would choose not to make a kill if given the option. For 1, in a limited flavor game, the sk could wait to start killing until AFTER all the other scum are dead so as to confuse the town about who they should be looking for. If the town are looking for connections to known mafia players when they should be hunting an sk, the sk is more likely to survive.

Another reason (and admittedly this is a weaker reason) is the flavor of the night death scene PM's. Night 1, there was no death. I believe coug I mean the sk didn't attempt a kill, and the commando targetted me. Since i'm commando immune, there was no death. Night 2, again, the sk didn't attempt a kill, and Vi was killed by the commandoes. The death scene specifically said the kill was made by the commandoes. Night 3, I believe the sk (coug) made the kill on jonathan for 3 reasons - 1) it was likely all the commando were dead, 2) jonathan stated he had the ability to detect predators. coug couldn't leave jon alive knowing either he or ckd would be investigated and he would be shown guilty, and 3) there was no flavor in the death scene stating that commando made the kill. Although I admit flavor doesn't prove anything, I think it would be unethical for a mod to decide whether or not to reveal what faction made the kill inconsistently. Either we weren't told who made the kill because it wasn't the commando, Vi's role had a claus that said something to the effect of "if you're nked, it will reveal what evil faction made the kill", or we have a special watcher type role where if you target to watch the player who is killed, it would be revealed in the death scene what faction made the kill. I'll throw 3 out right away because any watcher we had should have been watching jonathan as he was likely to be killed.

Also, the game flavor has always used the term "predatorS", which incinuates more than 1.

Aside from this post, I beleve I've already done a more than sufficient explanation as to why I feel 2 commando and 2 sk make sense, including all of the known and suspected town roles.

The only thing making me second guess myself is that you immediately turned around and attacked CKD, making it a 2 person game. That means the game is already over if there is only 1 scum remaining. CKD would have no reason to lie because he would be killed if coug shows up town. Likewise, coug, what do you think we would have to do if we lynch CKD and he's town? obviously, you would be killed.

What we should be asking ourselves right now is do we all agree that there is only 1 scum left? If the answer to that is yes, then there isn't much more to discuss because both CKD and coug will be the next 2 lynches if we need more than 1.

If we don't agree there is only scum left, we have to decide if we believe there is 1 commando and 1 sk, or 2 commando remaining. I'm worried if there are 2 commando remaining and we lynch coug, its game over. But I'm also worried if we lynch ckd and there is 1 commando (who's not CKD) and 1 sk, the town is still screwed tomorrow. I've argued that I think 4 total scum is more than enough, and I've explained why I think it's either 3 commando and 1 sk, or 2 commando and 2 sk. See my previous posts today for reasons why any more scum than those 2 scenarios would have put the town in a huge hole right from the beginning.

We should also be asking ourselves where is ecto?

Mod: status on the ecto prod?

It seems that ckd is already committed, I'm comfortable with holding my vote on coug right now. Cass and CKD aren't commando together or else Cass would have hammered by now. Basically, that means Cass is confirmed town.

I'm going to...

unvote

for right now until ecto chimes in. I'm worried that if he and CKD are scum partners together, that he could jump in and hammer coug (because it would be LyLo). I still think coug is probably sk, and I don't think ecto and CKD are scum together, but I just want to make sure by waiting to hear from ecto first now before giving him the chance to scum-hammer for the scum-win.

[Rhinox]

To tell the truth

, I don't have any evidence to say that curiouskarmadog is definitely Commando or definitely a predator, but with the role I have he has to be one of those two things, and I believe the consensus is that curiouskarmadog is probably not Commando given the flavor.

Another tell?

As for ecto, I would hate to have a replacement come in and have to read the entire game only to have the game end right away. We can wait for ecto, or we can just finish today's lynch and think about a replacement tomorrow IF the game continues. I also agree that ecto (or even a replacement) isn't going to chang the fact that either coug or CKD should be today's lynch.

I unvoted because I was worried there

might

be 2 scum remaining. I think its more likely that there is only 1 scum remaining and I think coug is it.

vote: coug

Cass, I think you should hammer.

[Rhinox]

wow whats up with my post ^^^^ It should have been like this:

To tell the truth

, I don't have any evidence to say that curiouskarmadog is definitely Commando or definitely a predator, but with the role I have he has to be one of those two things, and I believe the consensus is that curiouskarmadog is probably not Commando given the flavor.

Another tell?

As for ecto, I would hate to have a replacement come in and have to read the entire game only to have the game end right away. We can wait for ecto, or we can just finish today's lynch and think about a replacement tomorrow IF the game continues. I also agree that ecto (or even a replacement) isn't going to chang the fact that either coug or CKD should be today's lynch.

I unvoted because I was worried there

might

be 2 scum remaining. I think its more likely that there is only 1 scum remaining and I think coug is it.

vote: coug

Cass, I think you should hammer.

[Rhinox]

Well, I guess we know who to vote for. Congratulations CKD for making it to the final night. You had me fooled all game.

vote: CKD

Mod: request replacement for ecto so we can end this game. Perhaps Cass would be willing to jump back in ecto's spot. I've seen that happen in games before. That way, someone new won't have to read the whole thread so late in the game.

[Rhinox]

ebwop: This came out wrong after I wrote it...

Mod: can we request replacement for ecto so we can end this game. Perhaps Cass would be willing to jump back in ecto's spot. I've seen that happen in games before. That way, someone new won't have to read the whole thread so late in the game.

Fixed. I didn't mean for it to sound like a demand.

[Rhinox]

That was quite the game. Very exciting. I'm happy the town won, but this game makes me realize how much work I still have to do in recognizing scum. (well, this WAS my first game as town). After muffin's death, I had all but convinced myself there was no way CKD could be commando... *facepalm*. CKD, you really played a great game.

As far as balance goes, I didn't think it was unbalanced at all... just swingy, as demonstrated by clock picking the bomb to kill. If things would have went the other way, the whiskers could have been completely decimated pretty quickly. There were 2 things I think I did very well this game: first, if this is indeed what happened, getting myself to be the obv. nk choice D1. As Rishi said, that saved us from being in LyLo after the first day/night. And the other thing I'm proud of is convincing everyone that wolf was a better lynch choice than coug 2 days ago. Even if my reasoning behind it was a bit wrong (that coug and ckd weren't commando), it ended up helping a lot (especially considering ckd admitted to having a scheme up his sleeve if he and wolf would have survived.)

Hey coug, you like playing as scum a lot more than town, don't you hehe? It would have been very frustrating if it were LyLo and I would have had to choose between you or CKD at the end. The way you played this game, I don't think there would have been any way I would have been able to not pick you to lynch.

I also have a confession to make. I almost fell victim to outguessing the mod very early in the game. Since the start, I had a bias that ecto was scum. Reason being, in the two games I've played, Rishi has been mod both times. First game (a newbie game) I was scum and we had a last minute replacement into the game who was town. We were told that as soon as that player confirmed, we could start playing. This game, ecto was a last minute replacement into the game. Instead of being told to start right away, we were given an extra 24hrs after ecto confirmed for scum to finish up there pre-game conversations. I interpretted this as meaning ecto was probably scum because when a townie replaced in last minute, no extra time was given. That is why I grilled ecto extra hard early in the game. By the time we lynched muffin, I figured out why it wouldn't work to try to outguess the mod like this: in a newbie game, the longer you wait to start, the greater chance that players will flake while waiting for the game to start. That doesn't really apply in a more experienced game.

All in all, I don't think anyone really played that poorly this game at all. Yeah, mafiamann made himself look pretty scummy day 1, and muffin also dig himself a big hole after he started getting a little pressure, but nobody really made any huge mistakes. Being the least experienced in the game, I was very happy to have held my own with all the talent in this game, and of course it helped having the most powerful role in the game Did I really have double protection? jeez, I couldn't have been killed at all so long as Vi was alive (and I didn't get myself lynched.)

[Rhinox]

I have been proven wrong in another game....I brought up the arguement, and someone meta-ed a couple random games....apparently townies say it as often as scum...though, I was right in this game was I not?

Haha yeah but you knew something we didn't about muffin, didn't you I shoulda known when you didn't go after coug for it and I had to point it out that you didn't think it too legitamate of a tell. That should have tipped me off.

What exactly were the roles, anyway? I can vouch that Babysitter = Doctor. I can also beat Rhinox over the head for this--How was Bogre supposed to know you were NK-immune? :\

So are you saying you are straight up doc? Did you have to submit protect choices, or was it an automatic role like a bodyguard? So basically, N1 I was targeted by commando, and i was both immune and protected by bogre? Of course, he wouldn't have known I was immune. I was still thinking your role was an automatic bodyguard role... So that explains why I thought I had double protection - well I did, but only because bogre chose to protect me.

Any suggestions for me on how to improve as town are greatly appreciated

idk, I think its just your playstyle. For example, I see self voting in the random stage as scummy, I see throwing a vote out in your first post in a new day as scummy...

If wolf had lived and Coug would have been hung instead, I was going to turn around next day and claim that Rhino was the SK.

Yeah, I realized that my role claim set me up to be attacked for being scum. Thats why i made sure I left good crumbs early and tried to be pretty pro-town most of the game. It would have been a tough fight, but you would have had to convince either Cass and Ecto that I was scum and wolf would have had to vote me as well... In my favor, I had the D1 no night kill working for me, as well as the fact that I thought wolf was scum already. I'm actually interested to see how that would have played out, but I have faith that cass and ecto wouldn't have hung me. Especially because we should have still been hunting commando. Based on jon's claim, either you or wolf HAD to be commando (well turns out you both were), and there weren't any SK kills at all.

Well that came out the opposite way of what I expected. You are so evil for giving Rhinox an obv. SK claim and Ectomancer a working Godfather claim. (I expected Rhinox to be the sole survivor again as soon as he claimed NK immunity...)

Yeah, I did like my role a lot, but I knew if I wasn't very pro-town plus hopefully preventing at least 1 nk, my claim probably wouldn't have saved me. Especially if you really thought I was secretely an sk... Although I understand why you would think that given the outcome of our newbie game If anything, you'll really have to think about me next time we play together because I don't think there was too much different between how I played this game and how I played my first game.

[Rhinox]

I'm really opposed to clearing people on flavor (which seemed to be a large part of why Ectomancer evaded suspicion, for instance)... Rishi, you designed the game; what's your take on that sort of argument?

Well, basically, I rolled the dice here. I knew it wasn't a proper way to clear ecto, but the way ecto made his claim made me think he was something powerful. Flower was the leader of the whiskers and the one whiskers role I thought should be included in the game. Since this was a theme game, I started wondering about what all the possible roles could go along with flower. Something like a Martyr, perhaps. My imagination even created roles like if we lynch flower, our leader, the whiskers would disband and immediately lose. It was a gamble that paid off, and jon hopped in just in time to properly clear ecto, at least partially.

regarding ecto, I think for a minute he might have thought I was scum. There was one small exchange where I said that I thought ecto implied he had a power role, but that was all I said about it. Ecto then asked me what I thought about him implying he had a power role... I knew I was town so I didn't want anymore discussion regarding what ecto's role might be, but I felt like I was being baited to see if I would fish for any more info about ecto's role (an example of the fisherman becoming the fish). It sounded to me like a clever way to trap a scum player into role fishing. I got out of it quickly because I didn't want to give any reason for ecto to think I was scum, but if I were scum, I probably would have done the same thing... or would I?

[Rhinox]

Also I suggest to anyone in a game with ckd to vote him off just incase hes scum as you have no way of telling lol.

you can say that again...

Everyone should take note of how rhinox let everyone know his feelings and emotions. That is what made him definatly pro-town and something almost impossible for scum to copy.
It's possible.

Yes... very possible.