Mini 658 - Facedown and Thirsty Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #6 (isolation #0) » Wed Aug 20, 2008 12:25 am

Post by Kairyuu »

Yay! It started!

random
vote: Nightwolf

A wolf, that only comes out at night? Sounds scummy to me. :P
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Post Post #27 (isolation #1) » Wed Aug 20, 2008 8:25 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

I take it from two unvotes in rather quick succession by experienced players that leaving my random vote on overnight would be bad. So I won't.
Unvote: Nightwolf
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Post Post #30 (isolation #2) » Thu Aug 21, 2008 5:09 am

Post by Kairyuu »

@CDB: Of course, because this early in the game when you have already random voted and removed said random vote, its a good idea, and not scummy at all to vote again just so you can have a vote on.

As a general rule, I do not like to place a second random vote anfter I have removed my first one. This is probably just a difference in playstyles so I don't find you suspicious for insisting on revoting. I won't listen, at least not yet, but that's besides the point.

I guess my question would be: Why do you see it as a bad thing to not have a vote on someone during Day 1?

@Mokina: You seem rather eager to please right now, if a bit sarcastic. Perhaps you are trying to keep CDB from attacking you by doing what he says. Seems somewhat scummy to me, but it's not nearly enough to go on for a vote. I will however, place a
FOS: Mokina


And now for your question: Why did you feel the need to follow CDB's instructions without question, even though you seem to disagree with them (as proved by voting him as your response)?
Because, no matter how you dress it up, that's what the world is. A community of idiots doing a series of things until the world explodes and we all die.
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Post Post #38 (isolation #3) » Thu Aug 21, 2008 11:31 am

Post by Kairyuu »

Alright. I can't argue with the fact that votes are pressure. You want pressure? Very well, increasing the biggest bandwagon counts as pressure in my book, so here's a pressure vote (since you asked so nicely).
Vote: Mokina
.
I'm not saying to place a second random vote, but why get rid of the first? Why did you random vote in the first place if you were just going to get rid of it after a certain amount of time?
@CDB: I got rid of the first vote because I (as you mentioned) figured I could wait for the scum to slip. And for the second question, you are right. I voted for Nightwolf intending to remove it yesterday night or this morning. My reasoning: Its a random vote. If I leave it on for an overly long time, people will begin to think I have an actual reason for leaving it. They will ask for reasoning, which I cannot provide on a random vote.[/b]
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Post Post #44 (isolation #4) » Thu Aug 21, 2008 5:18 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Three votes and a FOS in two hours? And
I'm
opportunistic? Impressive deduction skills my friends, very impressive. :roll: No big deal though.

While I do invite the suspicion (its the only way anything is gonna get done) I think its somewhat odd that so many people would vote for me merely because I put a pressure vote on Mokina.

I'll just address each of you separately then shall I:

@DoS: No I do not consider more than a day to be an overly long time. However, from the previous few posts (before my unvote) I had gotten the impression that it was the time to start unvoting the random votes and get into the actual discussion. Apparently I was wrong (about the entire principle of the thing).

I seem to have drawn the attentions of a
real
opportunistic scum though. Your entire case against me is based on the idea that my story changed in an attempt to agree with CDB. Not quite, though it was a nice try. All my reasoning was designed to do was provide more explanation as to why I unvoted in the first place. It was my original intention to leave my random vote on for 12-24 hours, because I thought that is how long the random voting stage lasts usually (I've only been in one other game and we didn't even have one) and then remove it and sit back and look for tells. I believed my estimation to be correct when I saw Mokina and StrangerCoug unvote their random votes (it was at this point about 18 hours since my vote), so I unvoted. I had a vote on someone who hadn't posted yet except to random vote. I picked the 1 day number in order to have my vote off before peoples' reasoning began coming into question (which I didn't know when would start happening) since I had none. I was under the impression that this was the correct way to play the game.

When CDB pointed out that it was a bad thing to not have a vote on, I didn't agree with him, and told him so, because I did not wish to random vote again just because someone told me to. When he told me that he was referring to a pressure vote, not a random one, I agreed with his reasoning, because those can provide information. A pressure vote against someone with no votes is not putting any pressure on, its essentially a random vote. In my humble opinion, the best pressure vote is the one that puts the most pressure on the votee. Mokina had the largest wagon at the time, so she got the vote. I don't see this as scummy, as the more votes on someone, the more likely they are (if they're scum) to slip up and reveal something. Therefore, because I am apparently obliged to vote for someone when I have no cases at the moment, I pressure voted the one it could potentially pressure the most.

So, in other words, you attacked me, and voted me, for attempting to explain myself. Both bits of my reasoning coincide (as i showed above) but you jumped on me for it. It would be one thing if you attacked me for jumping on the closest thing to a lynch, but for
explaining myself
. That doesn't sit well with me. And you can't claim that it was the vote that made you vote me now that others have said so, because in your post you only mentioned that as an afterthought. See:
To what you said in your last post responding to CDB. It seems like you are latching on to his reasoning in hopes that no one will notice you said something else earlier.

Considering I find this slightly scummy I will unvote Vote Kairyuu.
This is what I consider serious reaching. And
this
is opportunism at its most basic form. But, of course, I can't vote you now can I, because that would be OMGUS. But I'm not overly bothered by that, because I have found what I wanted back when I unvoted Nightwolf, an actual reason to vote for someone. I am all for pressure votes to force a slipup or a claim but I much prefer votes with backing. Therefore,
unvote
and
Vote: DragonsofSummer
.

@Drake: There isn't actually anything to address to you becuase your post did not provide reasoning except to call me scummy. If you would kindly explain your vote a bit more I will attempt to explain myself.

@Mokina: Can you please explain why its opportunism? I said quite clearly that I only voted as a pressure vote and only because you were the one the vote would put the most pressure on. It was not based on any reasoning that you were scum (your answer to my question alleviated my suspicions of you earlier).

@StrangerCoug: L-3? I don't see that as an overly dangerous position. Sure, assuming we have three scum they could all jump on to kill her, but that would be unlikely, as it would potetially give them away for such a quick lynch. I already addressed the opportunism in my response to Mokina, so look there for the explanation.

@Iron Man: Ok. Fair enough. You consider my reasoning poor. All I can say to that is that I disagree. Not much else I can say unless you elaborate on what you don't like about my reasoning.
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Post Post #52 (isolation #5) » Fri Aug 22, 2008 2:20 am

Post by Kairyuu »

I don't have long but I'll respond to what I can.

@Nhat:
This is a huge contradiction. You say that you prefer votes with backing, yet it looks like DoS put up more of an argument than Drake did, but you vote DoS and let Drake slide?
I make no contadiction here. I prefer
my
votes to have backing when I place them. I can't get a tell off of Drake because there was no content, so I asked him for content. I voted someone I could potentially make an argument against.

@DoS:
The problem I have is that you said the exact same things CDB said as reasons later
I explained that last post. My reason and his reason were compatible. This is not scummy. This is agreement.
By the way you calling me opportunistic made me laugh. You hopped on a wagon as the 4th vote, with zero reasoning at all. I gave legitimate reasoning for my vote on you, and you scoffed at it saying it was a stretch.
I gave my reasoning for that as well. I had no suspects and agreed about the idea of a pressure vote. That vote had the most potential pressure. Now I have a suspect, so my vote is on said suspect.

@everyone: I may be V/LA for up to a week starting now. I don't know for sure, but if I disappear, its not by choice.
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Post Post #74 (isolation #6) » Fri Aug 22, 2008 3:58 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Ok, I guess I'm not going V/LA.

Heres what I'm getting since my last post.

@Drake: I hate WIFOM. It's horribly unhelpful to the town and leads to rampant paranoia. It also leads to utterly baseless arguments. In other words you just told me that you have no case. you were the second vote on me, so this is not bandwagoning in my opinion. The WIFOM alone is enough for me to
FOS: Drake
though.

@The people discussing random voting odds: Impressive calculations RandomGem, no clue how you did the particular calculations, but they seem to make sense. And StrangerCoug, I don't have any idea why you would use a guess at probability to determine whether or not something is scummy. I find this rather amusing. You haven't drawn my attention as scum yet though, so I think I'll just point this out neutrally for the most part, though I don't think your reasoning makes much sense.
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Post Post #79 (isolation #7) » Sat Aug 23, 2008 4:16 am

Post by Kairyuu »

@Mokina: I can. His reasoning was that I am scum because I voted you without worrying about possible suspicion that would be cast my way for it. Because, I mean come on, why would a townie
ever
take a risk to catch scum. :roll: Its WIFOM and makes no sense, but I like my vote on DoS for now and he already has my FOS.

@Drake: If I'm wrong, feel free to correct me. If I'm right then I want explanation as to why you still like your vote.
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Post Post #90 (isolation #8) » Sun Aug 24, 2008 10:47 am

Post by Kairyuu »

I would consider looking harder at Drake's explanation, but he's been a member even less time than I have. I don't really find it all that suspicious, more like a newbie mistake (as I seem to have made earlier).

@RandomGem: You did some calculations to determine random odds, but you haven't done much else. Could you kindly share with the class? Who are you suspicious of? Why? How suspicious are you of them? Everyone needs to contribute if the scum are going to be found, and along with Drake and Nightwolf/Natirasha, you seem lurky, not contributing anything of substance. We need input.

@Natirasha: Same questions directed at you.
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Post Post #95 (isolation #9) » Sun Aug 24, 2008 1:22 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@RandomGem: Don't worry about not being very good at scumhunting. New players generally speaking are not. The only thing that anyone can ask of you is to do what you can and try to remain active (I dislike lurkers).

@Natirasha: So you are saying that you don't like the current targets, but don't have any alternatives for us to consider, or reasons that the wagons should be dropped (yes I disagree with the wagon on me, but that is beside the point, as I have already provided my reasoning)? I don't care how many 'town points' I have. What I care about is content. Please post some next time.
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Post Post #102 (isolation #10) » Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:17 am

Post by Kairyuu »

@StrangerCoug: -facepalm- How many times do I have to say that the vote was not
mindless
or
bandwagoning
, but rather made according to who I thought it would put the most pressure on. It is a valid strategy, especially when I planned to remove the vote as soon as I had found a real suspect, which I have (my vote is on DoS). I don't have a problem with suspicion being cast my way, but at least try to find a valid reason, or at the very least explain why I am wrong about my own thought process.
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Post Post #107 (isolation #11) » Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:40 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@Drake: Not helping, Drake. We've been waiting for you to come back so that discussion could resume, and all you can do is correct your
grammar
. I am almost positive that no one here had a problem with filling in your missing word. What has been asked of you is for an elaboration on your reasoning. Please provide it. I am willing to write this off as another newbie mistake, but that's your second strike in my book. The third strike comes with no more tolerance and heavy suspicion.

@Natirasha: Thank you. He doesn't seem to be able to comprehend that.
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Post Post #112 (isolation #12) » Tue Aug 26, 2008 5:42 am

Post by Kairyuu »

@Nhat: Interesting theory. Only problem is that it's wrong.
I mean, the whole situation looks like he was voting for Kairyuu (to distance himself perhaps?) and stating that he was literally waiting for him to look more town so that he could unvote him
I'd like to hear a better explanation from Drake before commenting on his motives, but I seem to be under suspicion, so I will address it.

Drake did what everyone does. He voted for someone he found scummy, and he decided to wait until that person started looking less scummy in his book than someone else. This is the same style I use. With the exception of my random vote, (and pressure vote in this game) I do not pull a vote until I have reason to believe someone else has a better chance of being scum. I consider this a valid strategy, so I only asked for a bit of explanation from him to see how his motives looked.
Meanwhile, while others were dropping votes and fingers of suspicion on Drake, Kairyuu handles him with kid's gloves. After Drake votes him, Kairyuu kindly asks for explanation:
Excuse me
for being nice. Would you prefer I split myself in two and vote for two people at once. I actually have something to go on with DoS, and a lack of information provided by Drake. Thus, I went with the vote I had reasoning for, and asked for explanation from the person I had none from. If you will notice, I did the same thing with Iron Man. I asked him politely for elaboration on his reasoning, so that I could address the issue. I try to take that approach. This is supposed to be a fun game, so I do not want to ruin it for people by being rude.
Then when Drake dropped his WIFOM explanation, Kairyuu FoS's him, but it could be both distancing and coaching at the same time:
I have been coaching Drake. He is new, and if no one is willing to help him along, then how will he learn how to play properly. That said, this was not an example of that coaching. I really do hate WIFOM. In my newbie game it seems like WIFOM is the favorite argumentative style of half of the players, and every other post I have to disassemble someone's argument to point out how it isn't valid.
How many strikes are you giving this cat? He voted you with no reasoning, FoS him for WIFOM, then you point out that he's still not explaining himself, and that's your second strike? And only after the third strike he will come under heavy suspicion?
You seem to misunderstand my reasoning. I am giving him three strikes of things that could very well be newbie mistakes. The first was the WIFOM argument. The second was the failure to elaborate. He has one more strike before I will start challenging him as if he were experienced. That is my prerogative.
I'm pretty convinced that you two are scum partners, with Mokina being a possible third. Just have a look at what she's had to say about the whole Drake situation
So, in other words, you find people who are polite, helpful to newbies, and don't tear other people's arguments apart violently scummy? From what I see, you are attacking Drake for
being
a newbie, Mokina for
being nice to
a newbie, and me for being a newbie who is trying to be nice to a fellow newbie. By the same reasoning, CDB is scummy for being polite and giving me the benefit of the doubt for my pressure vote. Personally, I think CDB is probably town, but you should probably attack him if you want to keep true to your logic.

Therefore, in order to prove myself as not scummy to Nhat. I will say this. Drake, you are a complete $&#@(^%& moron. Your points are failures at life. Also, RandonGem, you fail too because you are trying to add to discussion but with ^*%$&%& terrible logic. (Note: these are not my actual opinions)

Happy, Nhat? Looking for scumbuddies this early is likely to be useless. I'm sorry, but this is true in most of the games I've read.

All of this said, I do not find you scummy. Your points have logic behind them. Poor logic, but still logic. You are truly trying to scumhunt, which rings town to me.
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Post Post #114 (isolation #13) » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:56 am

Post by Kairyuu »

@Mokina: I didn't say that I trusted Drake. I said that I would give him another chance before going after him myself. As for the buddies comment, we must return to my Newbie game to explain that one. I had a run-in with another player, who attacked one of our ICs for looking for scumbuddies and then suggesting them in the vey same post. I guess keeping an eye out would be a good thing, but I still don't like Nhat's methods of determining who is linked with who. The angry response was because I was trying to help out a fellow newbie and I got attacked for it.
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Post Post #116 (isolation #14) » Tue Aug 26, 2008 2:42 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

And since when is attacking people's arguments rude?
I didn't say it was rude. I said that it is rude to attack someone for trying to be polite and helpful.
That's basically how a mafia game can even function in a forum setting. How much benefit are you going to give to him because he is a noob?
As I said. Three strikes.
Also, I don't like your faux outburst because that's not what I was meant at all. It's fine to attack someone's logic without being a huge cock. I think you are confusing the two.

And that, my friend, is called ad-hominim argumentation, also know as invective. I attacked your argument and then added my own sarcastic interpretation of what you seemed to be asking for (with a note that I did not mean it) and you respond with a personal insult. This is quite sad really.

Oh well. In keeping with the spirit that this is a
game
I will not mention this again unless you choose to pursue your personal attacks, in which case I will request a replacement. I joined this site with the intent to play mafia, not have insults slung at me.
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Post Post #118 (isolation #15) » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:14 am

Post by Kairyuu »

Thank you. I apologize if I offended you in any way with my sarcasm. I thought I was being funny.
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Post Post #126 (isolation #16) » Wed Aug 27, 2008 4:02 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Will be V/LA until at least Saturday night, probably something like Tuesday. School is coming up real soon and I'm taking 6 AP classes, which equates to quite a bit of work.

Mod, you can replace me if you think this absence is too long. If not, feel free to leave me in, and I'll come back when I'm able.
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Post Post #132 (isolation #17) » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:12 am

Post by Kairyuu »

Ok. That's it. I'm done listening to this Drake. You've used up your last strike by
still
failing to explain yourself properly. Explain yourself. Now.

unvote

vote: Drake_259


Your newbie card has expired. I am treating you as if you were more experienced than I am from now on. I expect a well supported argument if my vote is to go anywhere else for quite awhile.

FOS: DragonsofSummer
for good measure. I'm still suspicious of you because all you have been giving as of late is sparse cases of neutral commentary, almost as if you are trying to watch what's going on without contributing your own opinions. So I must ask you, what are your current suspicions and what is your opinion about the votes on Drake.

Also
FOS: Natirasha
. You've made two posts since you replaced in. One was telling everyone you were here, and the other was a lackluster response to my questions about your suspicions. You haven't actually told anyone who you are suspicious of yet. It would be extremely helpful if you would post something constructive.
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Post Post #137 (isolation #18) » Sat Aug 30, 2008 2:28 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Ok Drake. I am going to say this very clearly. You are being asked what you are referring to when you say (and this is what I think the post should say with corrected grammar):

"Yeah, maybe, but it also helped him out because I still would have been WIFOMing him"

What do you mean by this? How does my asking you for explanation help me other than to allow me to actually defend myself? Why would you have still been WIFOMing me? That is what people have been looking for (I think. Correct me if I'm wrong everyone) the whole time from you.

I don't like your use of the newbie card. It's blatant to the point of being extremely annoying (even to me, another newbie). As I said, I gave you your three strikes and now my vote is on you because you failed to correct any mistakes or provide a decent defense other than saying essentially "I'm a newbie, it was an accident."
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Post Post #157 (isolation #19) » Fri Sep 05, 2008 11:32 am

Post by Kairyuu »

Hmm. I am leaning more towards agreeing with Mokina about Natirasha. I can completely see a townie hammering drake, whether by accident or because he thought drake was scum. The thing that really bothers me about the vote though, is that there is no way he could have missed the fact that drake was at L-1 and was therefore in need of claiming.

I will however put my
FOS: Natirasha
back on, because he still hasn't addressed the issue of ignoring my asking for his opinions.

DoS gets to avoid getting his back because he actually responded to me and gave a good reason.

I will consider voting Natirasha somewhat later if he worries me a bit more as the day progresses, but for now I don't have anyone I find overly suspicious.

On another note, there might be something to gain from the NK regarding the mafia. It seems that the mafia might be the unicorns, which would make sense considering RTD2. Also, if we assume a godfather, the black unicorn could quite possibly fit that role. This is just speculation of course. Feel free to beat me over the head for inferring from flavor text, but it seemed I could actually pull something relevant from it.
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Post Post #158 (isolation #20) » Fri Sep 05, 2008 11:34 am

Post by Kairyuu »

Wait. What?! What the hell was that Natirasha? Are you saying that you don't care that you hammered drake?
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Post Post #160 (isolation #21) » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:33 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Ok. That's
extremely
antitown.

vote: Natirasha
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Post Post #162 (isolation #22) » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:34 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Natirasha to actually
try
to do something useful.

On an unrelated note, 1 month 4 days to make Mafia Scum rank. Is that fast?
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Post Post #165 (isolation #23) » Sat Sep 06, 2008 3:38 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

C'mon people. I see 4 players ( RandomGem, Iron Man, malthusis, and CDB) who have posted
nothing
since D2 started.
Do
something.
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Post Post #167 (isolation #24) » Sat Sep 06, 2008 4:01 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

You know, I never understood that. I actually have at least 3 times more free time to post on the weekends, so I am
most
active around now.
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Post Post #169 (isolation #25) » Sat Sep 06, 2008 4:57 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Good question nhat. I have no clue what a special cop is, but I would like to know as well.
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Post Post #171 (isolation #26) » Sun Sep 07, 2008 5:26 am

Post by Kairyuu »

V/LA until Thursday. I'll jump right back in when I have access again.
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Post Post #189 (isolation #27) » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:20 am

Post by Kairyuu »

Natirasha doesn't seem to feel the need to do anything but essentially call for his own lynch, and I'm happy with my vote where it is.

Not much else to say, although I do agree with StrangerCoug on the meta issue. They are far too easy to manipulate to the advantage of the 'meta'd' player to actually be useful to the town.
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Post Post #192 (isolation #28) » Fri Sep 12, 2008 1:16 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

You may be onto something nhat, but I'm going to wait until the Natirasha issue is resolved before I look into RandomGem as a possible suspect. Nat is being far too anti-town to ignore right now.
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Post Post #195 (isolation #29) » Sat Sep 13, 2008 7:23 am

Post by Kairyuu »

I have a question nhat. Is there any reason that you have picked RandomGem out for not contributing, when there are two other people doing the same thing essentially? DoS said himself that he is more of a 'wait and see' kind of player, which is almost exactly what RandomGem just said. Also, a good deal more unhelpful in my opinion, Natirasha has been utterly useless since he replaced in, not responding to my questioning, hammering prematurely, and refusing to be helpful now on D2. So, why go after RandomGem and not those two (although you did sort of attack Nat for the hammer)? Is there something that makes him stand out over the other two.
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Post Post #198 (isolation #30) » Sat Sep 13, 2008 3:00 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@nhat: I can sorta see what you mean about DoS, but regarding Nat, I despise metas, and I find it ridiculous that anyone would back off of someone just because they have a decidedly anti-town meta. If someone is so proud to be anti-town, then they should expect to be lynched in every game. If we assume that it is just Nat being Nat, then he could skate by as scum all game, or be a potential mislynch in LyLo. The best decision I can see is to remove his influence early before he can cause the chaos that he seems to be trying to cause. That's why I'm happy with my vote on Nat for today. Without using meta, he is the most obviously scummy player I've ever seen in any game. A good choice to me.
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Post Post #200 (isolation #31) » Sat Sep 13, 2008 4:30 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@Nat: Unicorns? You mean the ones that killed our cop? Are you saying that that was you?
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Post Post #207 (isolation #32) » Sun Sep 14, 2008 8:15 am

Post by Kairyuu »

@Strangercoug: Before you unvoted I'm pretty sure Nat was at L-2, which I have seen plenty of roleclaims at, so I think you're grasping at straws here.

@Mokina: I agree. He has all but told us that he killed bird1111, and I would not want the doc to waste protects on the SK. I'm fully in agreement that he should claim right now. Ordinarily I would not call for a claim at L-2, but he has made too much of a hint at it already to allow us to ignore it. Granted, he could be lying as most people here seem to think and his wiki says. I am opposed to using the wiki/metas to determine the truthfulness, but I seem to have no choice.
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Post Post #211 (isolation #33) » Sun Sep 14, 2008 12:58 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Hmm. If you are telling the truth then we have a dilemma.

Assuming that there is a psychiatrist, we can use that to our advantage. We could either have the psychiatrist turn you into a townie tonight and just play out the game with you confirmed, or we could use you as a vig to take out the second most suspicious player each night until later, when you would then be converted so that you win with the town. The second option would hinge on having the psychiatrist survive long enough to convert you. If we go with that option and then the psychiatrist gets killed before converting you, then we would have to treat it like the second possibility.

Assuming there is no psychiatrist, then we have a claimed SK on our hands. We simply lynch you now so that you can't damage the town any further.

If you are lying, then we have a few possibilities as well.

You could be fakeclaiming as unicorns of some sort because of the flavor of the NK in order to be in the spotlight. If that was true you could be doing it as town just to screw with us, or you could be doing it as scum in order to set yourself and a scumbuddy up for being confirmed townies. In the case of the first, you are purposefully hurting the town as town, and in the case of the second, you are playing rather intelligently and are very dangerous to us.

The likelyhood if we assume meta, (which I do not want to) is that Nat is vanilla and just trying to screw with us. The likelyhood if we assume no meta, is that Nat actually is the SK, and actually does think that there is a psychiatrist. I want to assume the second one, but I think the first one may be a bit of a smarter decision.

@Mokina: I'm liking the psychiatrist claim. That way we get two confirmed townies for D3 if there is a psychologist, and lose a serial killer who could damage the town if there isn't one.

That said, I am not the psychologist.
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Post Post #212 (isolation #34) » Sun Sep 14, 2008 1:00 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

EBWOP: top chunk is @Natirasha
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Post Post #220 (isolation #35) » Mon Sep 15, 2008 4:55 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

I think it's a fair assumption to think there might be a psychiatrist based on that, but you do realize that Yellowbounder could very well be screwing with you (apparently he's alot more eccentric than I thought), in which case claiming here guarentees your death.

Personally, I wouldn't complain about having 2 confirmed townies on D3, but I'm starting to question if the risk would really be worth it. I think it might be possible for you to be mafia with a partner waiting to claim psychiatrist later.
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Post Post #226 (isolation #36) » Tue Sep 16, 2008 11:40 am

Post by Kairyuu »

I'm going to be a rebel and not unvote
unless
a psychiatrist claims 8-)
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Post Post #230 (isolation #37) » Thu Sep 18, 2008 10:27 am

Post by Kairyuu »

Hmm. That's a good point, one that I hadn't considered. If Nat is the SK, and he killed bird, then that means the scum either didn't kill, or their kill failed in some way.

Assuming that the scum
didn't
kill would mean that either they are setting up a doc claim with a no kill, or they are inactive. I've seen a scum claim doc in two different games, so I would assume that this is not a rare occurance. However, we do have enough lurkers/flakers that the scum may have just not signed on to submit the NK at all.

Assuming that the scum
did
submit a kill, but were stopped somehow, we have a few possibilities. One is that there could actually
be
a doctor who successfully predicted the NK target during N1. That poses problems, because a doc claim could go either way. Another possibility could be that there is a town-aligned roleblocker who blocked scum N1. The third possibility I can see is that there is self-protector who chose to protect themself when they were targetted.

At this point I don't have enough evidence to decide between all of the different situations, so I will not claim that I know what happened. These are the theories I came up with off the top of my head and are by no means an exhaustive list, so any input by the rest of the town is much appreciated.

Also, activity really needs to pick up in this game. We're going nowhere.
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Post Post #232 (isolation #38) » Thu Sep 18, 2008 12:57 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Have you checked everyone else's activity during the night to see if this is supported?
No I haven't. I was basing the possibility on peoples' activity (posting, I don't check if people are signed on or not) near the end of D1 and thus far in D2.
The third possibility doesn't come off to me as likely, but given this is a theme game...
The only place I have seen a self-protecting role was in Sonic Heroes Mafia, (read it, didn't play) which was another mini theme, so I had to mention the possibility, no matter how unlikely.
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Post Post #234 (isolation #39) » Thu Sep 18, 2008 3:20 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Good point RandomGem. The only problem I can see is that the flavor text mentioned unicorns in lieu of anything else, and Nat says he is unicorns. I would assume that unless the mafia are also unicorns, he would change it somehow to reflect the double target. Either that or the SK's kill takes precendence over the mafia kill, which would not make much sense logically, as the SK is a third party while the scum are a main faction (Note: speculation on game theory).
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Post Post #239 (isolation #40) » Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:24 am

Post by Kairyuu »

@nhat: That's what I said, but then Mokina scolded me for second guessing the mod based on flavor.

@everyone:
Strangercoug wrote: Slow game is slow
And it still is.
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Post Post #242 (isolation #41) » Sat Sep 20, 2008 2:35 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

That's a rather selfish move now isn't it Strangercoug? We already have a lurking/flaking problem as it is without one of the few active players left ditching us too.
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Post Post #247 (isolation #42) » Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:37 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@StrangerCoug: I prodded the mod yesterday, and he told me he is actively looking for replacements. Just try to stick with the game, we need as many active players as we can get if we're going to find the scum.

@RandomGem: It is actually very important where the scum NK went, because we may have a power role waiting to reveal a confirmed townie or a scum if we can figure out whether or not it was actually attempted.
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Post Post #251 (isolation #43) » Mon Sep 22, 2008 4:40 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@nhat: Firstly, I agree with the Nat lynch (hence why I haven't unvoted) but would like to see if there is a claim first (I have a theory, but to post it at this point would be to ruin it, so I will wait until everyone has claimed).

Secondly, I dunno if you are operating off this assumption or not, but just in case you are, RandomGem has already claimed not psychiatrist.

I would assume he is waiting for you because you are the only (I think) semi-active player who hasn't said whether or not you are the psychiatrist.

Personally, I think it is rather possible that you are doing the same thing you just told us about and waiting so you can claim safely. If you actually
are
the psychiatrist you are doing a rather poor job of setting up a believable claim.
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Post Post #260 (isolation #44) » Tue Sep 23, 2008 12:21 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

And yet again it's Nat who finalizes the kill (If yellowbounder allows self-votes). Meh. Nothing we can do about it now.
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Post Post #270 (isolation #45) » Tue Sep 30, 2008 11:20 am

Post by Kairyuu »

I'm still here, and still thirsty. I've got a theory, but I'll wait until after dinner to write it up.

By the way, in case anyone was planning to ask me about it, my theory from late D2 was that Nat was scum and that the psychiatrist (if they had claimed) was also scum. I was wrong, obviously. The day ended earlier than I expected and I didn't get the opportunity to explain that before Night, so there it is.
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Post Post #271 (isolation #46) » Tue Sep 30, 2008 12:27 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

To begin, I must mention that I must make assumptions and use activity levels in my case, which I am loathe to do, but it makes sense.

My theory is this:

IronMan/Korts is likely scum. I say this because of the progression of kills. During N1 the scum did not kill or their kill failed (either is possible, but my assumption is that they didn't kill at all). Also, during N2, when Iron Man was replaced by Korts, the scum killed DoS. Therefore, based on the replacement times (which is really all we have to go on, since Iron Man was lurking pretty heavily once D1 started moving) I would say he is the best chance of scum for today's lynch.

Vote: Iron Man
for the reasons listed above.
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Post Post #272 (isolation #47) » Tue Sep 30, 2008 12:41 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Wow, a triple post. I don't often do this, but I forgot my alternative I was planning to add.

An alternative possibility would be that the scum
did
try to kill N1, but DoS blocked it (or it was stopped some other random way). The only problem with that is that DoS is dead, and therefore cannot tell us who he protected, so there isn't much we can gather from that.
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Post Post #277 (isolation #48) » Wed Oct 01, 2008 12:17 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@Korts: Since you've asked so nicely Korts, and since not having been here while it was happening you may not have noticed from the thread, I will explain a bit better.

During D1, Iron Man was lurking. He made a few posts, and voted drake, but there was very little scumhunting going on with him, and he dropped off completely after only a week. Then, N1, there was no scum NK. I am making a bit of an assumption here in saying that it was not submitted, but it is a possibility, and the only thing I really have to go on at the moment (lurking D1+this=not exactly a good player spot for you to replace into). D2 he was, obviously, entirely absent. Not one post. Then, N2, the scum managed to kill. You replaced in during the Night, and had ample time to read over the game, or at the very least pick someone at random to kill. This could be a coincidence, but when coupled with Mr. Lurky ditching during D1, I think that lynching you is our safest bet at the moment, and best likelyhood of catching scum, as we have very little to go on about you.

It's nothing personal of course. If Malthusis had been replaced during the Night and not you, then I would be looking at his replacement for the exact same reasons that I'm looking at you. And if you had both been replaced, well then I'd be gunning for both of you (note: I think he has a better than 50% chance to be your scumbuddy).

@iamausername:
Assuming a three-man mafia, as is the usual in twelve player games, we're probably in lylo right now, but with the option of taking a no lynch first, which might be a good idea. Let's be careful, anyway.
A three man mafia plus a serial killer? Is that really the norm? If so it seems rather unbalanced towards the scum side.

Even assuming that we're at LyLo, I'm happy with my vote, because I'd say there's a rather good chance that Korts is scum. Plus, assuming what you said is correct, the scum couldn't quicklynch Korts if he was town, because I am the only vote on him at the moment.
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Post Post #281 (isolation #49) » Thu Oct 02, 2008 1:45 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Simply a theory, my friends. My vote is no threat to Korts at the moment, and it's the best I can come up with right now, so I'm going to leave it right where it is until something more suspicious catched my eye. If you don't like it, then vote me.

@Korts: Everything in this game is speculation and conjecture. I understand that it would make sense to make this move as scum, but saying that, while it looks good, is WIFOM.

About my being so sure, that's just the way I play. If I can make a case, I push it. Regardless of how sure I am of the case. Regardless of how strong or weak the case is. I still push it. Know why? To get reactions, especially from my target. It's fun, and scum who think I have a crap case against them write me off. Last time I did it, my target decided to hit me with 'too townie' and serious WIFOM. He was scum. I see WIFOM and I think scum. Your WIFOM, while minor, only serves to increase my formerly rather minor suspicions of you.

@Iamausername: True. Overestimating can't hurt, but my case is based on what I thought would make sense (2 scum and serial killer), so it also can't hurt to assume 2 scum, lynch them, and then if the game doesn't end, look at the game in retrospect with 20/20 hindsight to find the third. Pessimism works in some cases, but in this case it causes unecessary confusion for the town, which can be circumvented by analyzing everyone's actions after the fact.

As for the supposed massive hole in my argument, that is a matter of what you assume about the scum team. You are assuming 3 scum, which would mean that my argument is flawed. I am assuming 2 scum, which would mean that I can be right, because as I said, I think malthusis, the other lurker, is also scum. This is a difference of opinion, and according to occam's razor, both of our arguments are valid, because we both assume 1 thing about this, and this single assumption is the reason we disagree.

@Mokina: One problem with your opening logic. If you assume that the town is entirely power roles, then the game is still overbalanced towards scum, due to one of Stoofer's Laws (not sure which one), which states that as the number of town power roles increases, the chance of scum winning also increases. This is due to the power roles conflicting and damaging each other accidentally. That is why I don't think that yellowbounder would give the scum so much of an advantage.

Your comment about my case is, as iamausername's was, is based on a difference of what is assumed. I agree that the value of the N1 no scum NK is reduced as per making a case due to DoS being a doc, but I disagree that its value is entirely removed, because my idea is still a possibility if there are two scum.
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Post Post #285 (isolation #50) » Fri Oct 03, 2008 2:34 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@Korts: You answered your own question in your post. You say that if I were scum you would expect me to push the case, but you say that if I were town you would also expect me to push it. It's not specifically circular logic, but it is speculation about what a scum would do in a certain situation, which is another common definition of WIFOM.

Yours is the only decent case I can seem to make right now, because so few people seem to consider it worth their time anymore to play. No change in available information = no change in my stance, simple as that. I wish your predecessor had been more active so that I would have been able to get a better read on you, but it is only inaction that I have to go on, which in itself hurts the town.

@Mokina: Quite the opposite actually, I think him to be far from cleared, because I think him to be scum with Korts. This makes sense with my case if you assume two scum, because it explains the failure of scum to kill N1 (among other possibilities of course). At the very least, I would say that malthusis has provided us with little to no information. I really don't like that. A similar thing happened in my Newbie game, where one of the scum almost never posted and was replaced twice during D1. We had virtually no information on him, and would have had a pretty high chance of losing if we hadn't broken the game with a cop+doc confirmation combo.

@everyone: I guess that means I'm saying that I would support a policy lynch of malthusis in lieu of lynching Korts today if the rest of the town considers no information at all to be a better reason to lynch than what has been called a weak case, though I would also like some more participation and opinions from our lurkers (CDB, RandomGem, and StrangerCoug).

The only way to keep this game moving is if people stay active, because replacements are hard to come by, and we've had too many already.
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Post Post #288 (isolation #51) » Fri Oct 03, 2008 5:16 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Weak case this, weak case that. If you think my case is weak, then try proposing your own cases. If we don't have any discussion, then the day is a total wash, and the increased odds of finding scum tomorrow are virtually useless, because we have no new information to go off of. I'll go for the no lynch idea at some point, considering that it does actually help the town, but come
on
people. Quit sitting on your asses and scumhunt a bit before ending the day. This is pathetic.

If you don't have any theories now, then how will letting the scum kill another one of us give you a better idea?
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Post Post #292 (isolation #52) » Sat Oct 04, 2008 2:31 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@Mokina: Thank you. Someone finally agrees with me. Only problem is, while you are supporting adding to the discussion, you aren't doing it. Any ideas/cases to bring forward?

@everyone else: That goes for you guys too. Discuss please. My argument is out there, and until I see some more viewpoints joining it I will not be voting for the no lynch yet.
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Post Post #298 (isolation #53) » Sun Oct 05, 2008 3:11 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@iamausername: Ok. Well after looking through every completed game from page one of Coney Island, I am forrced to partially agree with you. The frequesncy of serial killers is rare in an of itself, and when there is no serial killer there is always 3 mafia (in the games i checked). However, the games with a serial killer and 3 mafia outnumber the games with a serial killer and 2 mafia by 3:1 (3:1 being the actual numbers of both) so I will grudgingly admit that your scenerio is more likely. That destroys everything I have against Korts, so
unvote
. I still think that putting an SK and 3 mafia in a setup is a bad decision and gives the scum too much of an advantage, but it apparently happens; not very often, but still more frequently than SK with 2 scum (as I think would even the odds a good deal). So I will reread again and see what I can dig up about everyone.
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Post Post #299 (isolation #54) » Sun Oct 05, 2008 3:49 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

That didn't take long at all. We have very few long posts to sift through.

I seem to have found a new home for my vote though, which is nice. I like Strangercoug as scum from my reread. D1 he did nothing but flip out and vote everyone with the smallest amount of suspicion on them (but oddly enough only FOSed if they did not already have a vote). D2 he continued to flip out, most prominantly at Mokina (who he actually voted even though she didn't have one yet). He also has a tendency towards being a follower, and jumping right in on things other people suggest (Key examples: Mokina's unvote of Nat D2 to wait for a claim (Strangercoug unvoted Mokina to wait for a claim before voting Nat), Mokina's revote of Nat, and RandomGem's no lynch vote recently). He seems to be trying to tie himself to Mokina by following her lead surprisingly often. Maybe he thinks he'll look more pro-town if he copies what Mokina does because she looks pro-town? I'm not buying it.
vote:Strangercoug
for now (will stay in place if we decide to lynch today or change to no lynch if that is still the concensus after some more discussion).
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Post Post #302 (isolation #55) » Mon Oct 06, 2008 10:10 am

Post by Kairyuu »

Ignoring me still Strangercoug? I still want to here your opinions about who is scum, and I also want you to respond to my accusations.
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Post Post #304 (isolation #56) » Mon Oct 06, 2008 12:45 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

So you aren't denying that you tied yourself to her through your actions? Uhh, right.
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Post Post #307 (isolation #57) » Mon Oct 06, 2008 2:42 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Ok. I've read the article on straw men, but I don't really understand it too well, or see how it applies to this situation. I said he was following you very closely, and he said he hadn't realized that he was, and couldn't explain it other than the fact that he found you pro-town, which is not a denial. Can you explain how that is a straw man argument? Or even how one really works?
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Post Post #310 (isolation #58) » Tue Oct 07, 2008 12:00 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Ah. I see what you are saying, and I can safely say that you are wrong.

Notice the question mark in my post? I was asking him to clarify. I made no assertion.
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Post Post #317 (isolation #59) » Wed Oct 08, 2008 11:53 am

Post by Kairyuu »

@Korts: Can you elaborate on how my posting has seemed fabricated to you? I can't exactly defend myself if you don't say anything specific.

As for the whole newbie card thing, it is very simple. Throughout D1 I assumed drake to be a newbie, and decided to give him a number of chances. I decided on three strikes, but ended up giving him a few freebies because the things he was doing just seemed like he wasn't thinking about what he was saying. I got fed up when he simply refused to answer any questions directed at him.

I have mentioned that I am new, and that I do not know all of the intricacies of gameplay on this site, or all of the more obscure references (straw men for example). I do not remember ever explaining away my actions based on my being a newbie though. If my memory does not serve, then I apologize, but I can't remember calling myself a newbie to explain why I did something I was called scummy for.
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Post Post #320 (isolation #60) » Thu Oct 09, 2008 2:13 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

It seems that yellowbounder has forgotten us, as well as RTDII again. I'll go prod him, again.
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Post Post #321 (isolation #61) » Thu Oct 09, 2008 3:43 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

I will be experiencing mild to moderate V/LA for about a week.
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Post Post #334 (isolation #62) » Sun Oct 12, 2008 3:00 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@Korts:
There's no need to defend that, it's pretty much the style that I have problems with. It's not a real scumtell by far, just something I noted.
Fair enough.
No, you didn't use the newbie card to get out of tight spots. However, you did seem very eager to state, on multiple counts, and without provocation that you are also a newbie. Just because you weren't defending yourself with it doesn't mean it's not valid as a tell. You could be pre-emptively justifying an "I told you I'm a newbie" line.
I read through all of my posts again (because I didn't remember the specifics of what I did) and I know what you are talking about now. I volunteered the newbie thing on D1 because it formed a part of my reasoning. I was asked why I was giving Drake so many strikes. My reasoning was because he was a newbie, and, being a newbie myself, I was more inclined to give him a chance, because I would have hoped for a bit of leniency if I was in a similar situation. Since then I haven't mentioned it at all if you noticed, because it did not figure into my reasoning anymore.
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Post Post #335 (isolation #63) » Mon Oct 13, 2008 2:29 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Strangercoug wrote:Slow game is slow


I can't believe I had to quote that again. Why is everyone so sluggish lately? This game started as one of the fasted I had seen, but not it's a snorefest.

Pick it up people.
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Post Post #348 (isolation #64) » Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:43 am

Post by Kairyuu »

And that just ended the day.

I didn't like Strangercoug's quick unvote without reasoning. I expect an explanation tomorrow.
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Post Post #361 (isolation #65) » Thu Oct 23, 2008 1:19 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

I don't like the idea of a massclaim. From what I remember from games I have read, a massclaim in LyLo (as you say we are at) generally ends up badly for the town. I will be looking for some data to determine if I'm remembering right. If the data supports me, then I will oppose this massclaim, but if it supports you I will claim.

Two questions for Korts:
1. What is popcorn style?
2. Any particular reason for choosing me to start things off?

Also, I am mildly suspicious of Iamausername and Korts, because a controversial idea (as I believe a massclaim is) proposed by one person, and supported by a second soon after generally serves to sway those who would ordinarily be on the fence about the idea. It is a psychological effect that often happens in classrooms when multiple people are called to answer the same question before the teacher gives the correct answer.

Based on the evidence I and others presented D3, I am still rather convinced that Strangercoug is scum, and I will
vote: Strangercoug


I have another of my theories, and will be testing it before I enlighten the rest of you as to what it is. Just felt like putting that out there.
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Post Post #365 (isolation #66) » Thu Oct 23, 2008 4:05 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@Strangercoug:
Town massclaimed in Mini 624 and won.
One event does not make a trend. Plus, were there other variables in play such as a cop with a guilty, or was it the massclaim that won the game. Also, was it an open/semi open setup where the scum couldn't hide? Or was it a closed setup, with the other players relying on blind luck to decide which roles were fake/scum? There are so many factors to take into account that citing one example when it might not have even been the massclaim that won the game has virtually no worth. I will be looking for very specific examples of a massclaim at LyLo that lost the game for the town. If I can't find enough of those I will use less strict criteria for the time of the massclaim.

We massclaimed in my newbie game too. That massclaim won the game for us, but not because the massclaim would help the town find the scum, but because by doing so we broke the game for us. Mine is an unusable example because a massclaim in this situation is entirely different, because it has virtually no game breaking possibilities.

I will be looking for very specific examples of a massclaim at LyLo that lost the game for the town. If I can't find enough of those I will use less strict criteria for the time of the massclaim, using it if it is at least D3.
Massclaiming is quite common in my experience, so why do you call it controversial?
Just because it is common does not keep it from being controversial. Half the games I've read where a massclaim was called for, it was shot down because of how much it would screw the town over.

Stem cell research is common; abortion is common outside the US (just look at Canada). Does that make them not controversial.
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Post Post #366 (isolation #67) » Thu Oct 23, 2008 4:06 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

EBWOP: Sorry 'bout that. I meant to move the bit at the end of my first paragraph to the end of that point, not duplicate it.
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Post Post #377 (isolation #68) » Sat Oct 25, 2008 3:31 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@Randomgem:
I think it's quite interesting that Kairyuu opened up with a post containing a vote on a possible (likely?) LyLo day, Seems contradictory to me.
Here's the deal, I hate indecisiveness. Towns always get ridiculously indecisive in LyLo. I am aggressive and decisive when I am fairly convinced of someone's scumminess. I think Strangercoug is scum, and I have provided my reasons. Therefore, I voted him. How is that contradictory? It actually seems much less pathetic than the actions of most towns in this situation, since scum in lylo like to stall the town and sow the seeds of doubt in the town, because all they need is to confuse a single townie enough to get them to vote another one to win.

Therefore, clear and decisive action MUST be taken in order to keep scum manipulations to a minimum at the time of greatest town paranoia. You should have your suspects decided on by now from the rest of the game. If you don't have the nerve (or ability in your case RandomGem) to vote, then push your case. Do NOT sit idly by and gve the scum an opportunity to turn us against each other.

@Korts: I haven't been able to find enough massclaims in LyLo to have a compelling argument either way (I've found one, which ended in a scum win because it confirmed the mafia roleblocker as town, but there were other factors in play). I guess I may as well claim now though, since my data is inconclusive and I won't stall to get more data.

I am
The Wii that Everyone Forgot


I'm a vanilla townie, because no one bothered to use me after I was purchased, so I just sit here in McDonalds looking shiny and playable.

I still want to know why I was your choice for starting off the massclaim. Generally speaking, the person who calls for the claims should be willing to put themselves out first as a show of good faith. That you had to be told by two others that you should start is suspicious to me. Sort of looking like you wanted to wait for more claims so you could alter yours to suit the situation.
FOS: Korts


@Strangercoug: You're next Mr. Scumscum.

@Everyone: I'm going to be V/LA for awhile (about 1.5 weeks). I will post when I can, but the frequency will be reduced.
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Post Post #383 (isolation #69) » Sun Oct 26, 2008 11:07 am

Post by Kairyuu »

@Korts:
Kairyuu, it is customary to have the town's top suspect go first in a popcorn-style massclaim.
I don't see why it should be scummy that I didn't volunteer. And I don't see why you have the notion that the one who proposes a massclaim should start.[/
quote]

Bolded: Ok. I didn't know that, so point ceded. However, it raises another more interesting point. Why do you find me to be the top suspect. D3 I responded to your criticisms and you said that you didn't find me scummy, but now I am somehow your top suspect? What changed?

Italics: I just assumed that a townie would be willing to put his or her neck out first as a sort of "walk the walk" type deal. I just find that it would be the right thing to do. I guess my opinion was misguided.

Besides, according to my logic it should have been iamausername that went first, as he suggested it first, but I called you out instead because you were the one who said who should start, which struck me as odd.
This whole thing's not about showing good faith, it's about finding scum, and there's a difference, because I know myself to be town, and I don't especially want the scum's claims to be made easier by me going first.
In a game like this, with yellowbounder as the mod and FDaT as the source material, I doubt that claims will really do anything overly helpful for us. They probably won't hurt us too much either, but in my opinion the town shouldn't just go for something unless there are forseeable benefits.

@RandomGem: I expect a response you know. Don't just drop your point against me. I made my argument, and I want to know if/how that changes your opinion.
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Post Post #388 (isolation #70) » Sun Oct 26, 2008 12:07 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@Korts: Fair enough. I am, of course, required to disagree with you due to my bias against Strangercoug, but I can't really fault you for going with a small suspicion when there are no large ones for you. I'll remove my FOS of you now.

@Strangercoug: And here is another example of you freaking out and jumping at shadows. RandomGem makes a vote that probably means nothing and you are all over him.

Also, your claim that zakeri is confirmed does not hold water. You have seen how powerful the town in this game is, so how do you know that Zakeri's role is not a scum role? Your behavior leaves me little doubt that you are scum. My vote stands.

@Everyone: Please note that my vote has been on Strangercoug for 3 days now, and the scum have not jumped on it. I have been watching it as closely as possible, looking for a second vote to join it so I could pull it off to foil a scum hammer (Nights do not count, but after the first day it was left there I became much more confident in his scumminess, and less inclined to unvote for the night, since I was expecting the scum to jump as soon as they saw it). No one has voted to attempt a quicklynch. I believe this to mean that Strangercoug is scum.
confirm vote: Strangercoug
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Post Post #389 (isolation #71) » Sun Oct 26, 2008 12:08 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

By the way. That was the theory I said I was testing in my first post of D4.
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Post Post #391 (isolation #72) » Sun Oct 26, 2008 12:50 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@RandomGem:

Regarding your points:

1. All evidence from other games pointed to three scum, so I am currently operating under that assumption, as I said D3 when I ceded the point to iamausername.

2. This is valid. I know that I am not scum, but the rest of you don't have proof, so I can see that as a good point.

3. Are you inferring that you are?

4. Like who? Everyone that is still alive is reasonably active. Our last lurker (CDB) died N3. To be more specific, since the time I voted, everyone in the game posted at least 3 times, and all but you were active throughout the past 3 days.

So out of 5 possible scenerios (the 5th being my point about SC being scum), one is invalid, one points to my suspect, one points to myself, and two point to you. So, any reason I shouldn't switch over to you right now, since you pretty much just said I'm only wrong if you are scum (since I'm pretty sure I don't have to guess about my own alignment), and two of your own ideas point that way?

I still think that Strangercoug is much more likely scum, but we might just have tomorrow's lynch in you.
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Post Post #403 (isolation #73) » Mon Oct 27, 2008 4:02 am

Post by Kairyuu »

Interesting turn of events. People are actually taking my advice and voting (but unfortunately not for Strangercoug-scum).

I agree that Korts' claim could fit with scum quite easily based on his play contradicting it. Hell, if I were NK immune I would be the most aggressive scumhunter around, because I would know that the scum wouldn't be able to knock me off if I got too close.

I'd vote him, but I would very much prefer a Strangercoug lynch right now, because the case on him is based on his play throughout the game, not just a behavior difference between play and role claim.

I too want to know who RandomGem protected/blocked throughout the course of the game.

@Korts: Your test uses the same premis as mine, and RandomGem pointed out that it leaves it up to us to determine if you are scum or not. Since some people seem to think that you
are
, in fact, scum, I do not see that as very useful, as it can quite easily be a ploy to confirm yourself as town if he is scum.

I don't buy it. Combined with my (admittedly weak) case against you D3, this evidence puts you quite high on my list of scum (second only to Strangercoug). I will likely vote you if no one comes to join me on lynching numero uno scum.
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Post Post #405 (isolation #74) » Mon Oct 27, 2008 4:26 am

Post by Kairyuu »

And
that
makes me almost POSITIVE that SC is scum, and raises Korts' scumminess level in the process.

@Strangercoug: And you waited until someone else was already voting Randomgem why exactly? It's almost as if you are trying to contribute to proving Korts right, which, since he is likely scum in my book, makes that scummy.
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Post Post #410 (isolation #75) » Mon Oct 27, 2008 5:49 am

Post by Kairyuu »

@Korts:
You fault me for not having enough time/energy to read and reread the thread until I get in sync with the game and find a point I can pressure with conviction? I really think that's bullshit, whatever my role is. Scumhunting skills don't come and go with the role at hand.
I should probably rephrase. I think that someone who does not have to worry about being NKed should have no problem putting all of their opinions out in the open and commenting on as much as possible. That, to me, is what scumhunting is, because even if you don't have a case, the rest of the town could see some of the things you pointed out to be scumtells that you might not have interpreted that way.

I'm not faulting your play at all (I actually agree that you shoudn't be expected to have strong feelings about everyone in the game as soon as you get going). I'm just saying that it seems more likely that someone who is NK immune shouldn't be afraid of making themselves a big target for the scum. This bit also goes back to Iron Man as well, because before he actually disappeared he tried to fade into the background once people attacked his self-vote.
What exactly is that premise that both our tests are based on?
That the scum will try to quicklynch if RandomGem is town, and will ignore the vote if RandomGem is scum. I may be mistaken. Please correct me if I am.
Understatement of the year. Your case wasn't just weak, it was based on a flawed assumption.
Part of my case was based off the assumption of two scum. The other part was about Iron Man's lurking, which was entirely valid. I should have made that more clear. I apologize.
But why does SC's last post make me likelier scum? Him following my vote is unrelated to my alignment, it can happen both as me being town and me being scum.
My bad. For some reason I was thinking that SC-scum would want to throw a vote on with you if you were scum to make it look like the scum was trying to quicklynch town.

I got my players mixed up. I think that his vote makes it look like you are somewhat more likely to be town, and that RG is somewhat more likely to be scum, because if he jumps on with a second vote of RG, and RG is lynched scum, he would look better D5 for being on the wagon early on.

So what is should have been was SC looks scummy for the vote, and RG looks somewhat scummy because it could very well be bussing, as this is the first vote he has actually put on RG all game, even though he has FOSed him a number of times.

@SC: The whole
point
is that you waited until votes started flying before you placed your own. It shows that you are umwilling to do anything until you think it is safe to do so without being called out on it.

I like my vote where it is.
Because, no matter how you dress it up, that's what the world is. A community of idiots doing a series of things until the world explodes and we all die.
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Post Post #411 (isolation #76) » Mon Oct 27, 2008 5:54 am

Post by Kairyuu »

Edit: Simulposted.

Mokina makes a good point. I forgot about Drake. Four roles to stop kills is extremely high, even for a larger game than this.

I still think that SC is scum, and that he should be lynched today, but I think a Korts lynch is just as likely to nab us a scum.
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Post Post #417 (isolation #77) » Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:08 am

Post by Kairyuu »

@yellowbounder: Well I think
you
are incorrect, because malthusis transformed into zakeri some time ago.
MOD: Fixed.
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Post Post #421 (isolation #78) » Mon Oct 27, 2008 1:31 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@Strangercoug:
If I lose, it's nobody's fault but mine.
And Kairyuu, that bat out of hell, swooped down, a crimson glint in his eyes, as he spotted his target drop another scumtell due to not realizing what he has typed.


This is scummy. The fact that you separate yourself from the rest of us makes it seem as though your alignment is not the same as ours, and you have just accidentally admitted it. If the SK wasn't already dead, then I would say you were probably the SK. As it is though, it seems like you merely admitted to being scum who just slipped.

His powerful urge to attack semantics satiated, Kairyuu took flight once again, circling overhead in case someone else accidentally admits to being scum


Regarding the italics: I just had to do it. My favorite arguments are semantics based, because in my opinion it is in the semantics of their posts that scum slip up the most, often without realizing it. I get attacked for pushing cases based on semantics, but that won't stop me from going after them, because I feel them to be very important. It has gotten me quite a reputation in some of my games.
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Post Post #424 (isolation #79) » Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:41 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@RandomGem:
The fact that StrangerCoug has 2 votes on him but hasn't been quicklynched is good, but distressing to me...
And I personally thought that at least one of the townie claims had to be fake
, since it's a very easy claim.
And I thought 4 townies might be unbalanced, considering there was an SK also, but maybe this is balanced by all the power roles? :/ I dunno.
Bolded: Well that's the whole point, isn't it? Strangercoug's claim was fake, because he's scum. So you were right.

Italics: Huh? As far as I know, there being 7 (8 if you include the SK) power roles in one game is the odd bit, not the 4 townies. Generally speaking it is worse for the town if they have lots of power roles, because they tend to interfere with each other negatively.
Because, no matter how you dress it up, that's what the world is. A community of idiots doing a series of things until the world explodes and we all die.
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Post Post #425 (isolation #80) » Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:45 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Edit: Simulposted.

@SC:
I don't see how my post implies that I'm scum given the SK is already dead and the Mafia have yet to suffer the loss of one of their own.
Because you implied it was
you
that would be the one losing, not the town. This implies that you are a separate entity from the town, and do not win or lose with it.
I find semantics arguments relatively useless. Not counting it against you; that's just me.
Fair enough. I still think I'm right, but you are entitled to your opinion.
Because, no matter how you dress it up, that's what the world is. A community of idiots doing a series of things until the world explodes and we all die.
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Post Post #427 (isolation #81) » Mon Oct 27, 2008 3:52 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

Exactly. You can admit to being scum now if you'd like, because you've pretty much given yourself away in the attempt to hint at being town.
Because, no matter how you dress it up, that's what the world is. A community of idiots doing a series of things until the world explodes and we all die.
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Post Post #449 (isolation #82) » Tue Oct 28, 2008 4:11 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

:twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

That was fun!

Sorry about pushing you to get lynched Strangercoug. I knew that if there was one person I could get to react abnormally to pressure, it was you, so I banked on the fact that everyone but Korts thought I was pro-town and wouldn't find my vote overly scummy, and went after you right away.

@yellowbounder: Actually, early in RtD2 a player named andersonw found and bought a wii. He then disappeared and the wii was forgotten.

Good effort though town. I was sure that you had RandomGem for today's lynch because quite a few people expressed suspicion of him starting late D1. The fact that we were able to get SC lynched was actually somewhat unexpected, since until the last day only me and Mokina had expressed any suspicion at all of him.

(Note: I was being entirely serious in my defense of my vote to RG. I really do feel that way and would do it as town just as quickly as I did as scum.)
Because, no matter how you dress it up, that's what the world is. A community of idiots doing a series of things until the world explodes and we all die.
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Post Post #460 (isolation #83) » Sat Nov 01, 2008 1:47 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

A little side note to anyone still watching this thread.

I have proof that semantics arguments catch scum. Proof from this game actually, where I would have been caught if people had looked at my wording.

[quote="Kairyuu]
It's nothing personal of course. If Malthusis had been replaced during the Night and not you, then I would be looking at his replacement for the exact same reasons that I'm looking at you.
[/quote]

This statement implies that I would be gunning for the replacee who showed up, regardless of who it was, and regardless of the previous player's actions or alignment. This would imply that I already knew the player's alignment, which would imply that I was scum. This would be correct, and if you could convince people of it, you would have caught me.
Because, no matter how you dress it up, that's what the world is. A community of idiots doing a series of things until the world explodes and we all die.
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Post Post #467 (isolation #84) » Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:50 pm

Post by Kairyuu »

@DoS: You were right the first time. It
is
Mokina, even though yellowbounder refuses to admit it. :P
Because, no matter how you dress it up, that's what the world is. A community of idiots doing a series of things until the world explodes and we all die.

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