Mini 644 - Meerkat Manor Mafia (Game Over!)

[Cass]

/confirmage

I do hope we don't end up lynching any family members... such a sad mental image

[Cass]

Hm... i see two cats and two dogs - but the worst predator is a man with a gun!

Vote: Wolframnhart

[Cass]

Cats? As in kats? As in

Meerkats

?? Did you just confess to being evil meerkat-eating scum?



Also... curiouskarma

dog

... oh my, that's the third dog! Are you, mafiamann and Rhinox a scumteam?

[Cass]

@Strangercoug: do you really think everyone, including yourself, is scum? Your post seems to indicate you do... Can you explain your case on us?

[Cass]

Heh, indeedy... did you think mine was a serious question? Why?

[Cass]

Aw, it's ok. I took your post as completely nonsensical, so I asked a nonsensical question in return.

I do not think a third vote indicates scum. Especially as you put the first vote on yourself.

Unvote
Vote: Strangercoug

Not quite random.

[Cass]

I do not think a third vote indicates scum. Especially as you put the first vote on yourself.

This is not true. I put the second, not the first, vote on myself.

Still, you can hardly count his as the third vote. You could unvote yourself any time. Besides, three votes isn't any danger with twelve players, so I do not find that at all scummy.

[Cass]

For the record: I'm pretty neutral about the self-vote. Not a fan of it, but meh. The reason I voted SC is that he said the 3rd vote is scummy, I disagree, so I put a third vote on him again. To see what would happen. I quite like this bandwagon though, seems the game has started at least

[Cass]

Clock and stranger both look quite scummy for panicking about three or four votes, with only very weak reasoning behind them, during early day 1. It seems to me they are trying to use it to throw early suspicion on the people on those wagons. Looks dirty, especially since stranger started his wagon all by himself.
Nobody asked for a lynch, there really wasn't any threat to anyone at any time. L-5 or L-4 on page two is IMHO no pressure at all. Well, enough pressure to not lurk, but no more than that. In such a situation, only doing something majorly scummy can possibly get you quicklynched.

FoS Clock

and my vote stays on Stranger for now.

Muffinhead gives me a bad vibe for some reason. I don't like his meta-defense of stranger.
Mafiamann sounds insincere and shady in his few posts. Same goes for Jonathan. His one and only post doesn't really add anything to the discussion and throws suspicion on both Stranger

and

the people voting him.
Bogre seems overly aggressive, but with just two real posts I have no read on him at all and can't say if the aggression means anything.
Null-read on CKD too, need more posts.
Rhinox seems reasonable and comes off townie, but he's good at that Null-read for now.
Wolframnhart seems townish, though that's just gut.
Ectomancer... scares me a bit, with that post about beating people up But I think his posts aren't extremely serious (yet).
Where's Ace? He still hasn't posted anything.

[Cass]

Well, perhaps not panicking, but you sounded like you thought it was a pretty big thing, and seriously scummy. Considering the lack of actual threat - I fail to see what you are/were scared of. Mentioning quicklynch when there really wasn't any threat of that seems panicky (or phobic? let's discuss the subtleties of the English language some more!).

[Cass]

Pro-tip for Mafiamann: if you can't spell a word, use copy/paste.

Ok, I think the whole self-vote debate is past it's (dubious) usefulness by now. Frankly, if you ask me, it's townies tearing into townies and the mafia standing by quietly, waiting for the bandwagon. Let's find some scum.

Unvote
Vote: Bogre

for standing by quietly and throwing suspicion on a bunch of players, so he can vote them when the opportunity presents itself. Defend yourself, Bogre.

[Cass]

So, now there's three persons not contributing:
- Jonathan, who's just absent. Looks uglier and uglier the longer it lasts.
- Mafiamann, who just... I don't know... is useless?
- Bogre, who kinda lurks, but claims he can't make long posts because he is on vacation.

I am not convinced by Bogre's defense, but I'll give him the benefit of thecoubt for now, and a chance to improve.

Unvote
IGMEOY, Bogre

I can't really say anything to defend MM, except that I've seen him in another game, where he played horribly obviously scummy (and was scum...). So he could be a horrible townie now. Ahwell. I can't say I'd strongly oppose the lynch... The claim means nothing, because the scum have fake name-claims and the townie PM has been posted by the mod.

FoS: Mafiaman

But Jonathan, this just won't do. Start playing the game already, because right now I think you are scum trying to be invisible.

Vote: Jonathan

[Cass]

Ok, jonathan, i may not agree with you everywhere, but that was good content.

Unvote

Also, just to keep things absolutely clear: I never intened to lynch this paricular lurker. If I want someone lynched I'll generally use the word 'lynch' in my case on them...

This post by Bogre, however, is extremely scummy:

@Rhinox: Today is not the time to lynch lurkers, imo. Although your addressment of the weak claims of Ectomancer have been quite good, I must say I've never seen the point in 'I'm voting you lurker answer now'. One vote is not too much pressure on a lurker, just more of a placeholder, imo.

Ectomancer I believe is a good lynch for tomorrow. Look at how he jumps on Mafiamann's bandwagon with very little reasoning, then as soon as that is pointed out, he finds a weak, papery case to jump -off- the bandwagon and try to direct attention away from Mafman.

That made all my scum alarms go off... First me he makes it look as if Rhinox wants to lynch for lurking, which is obviously false. I find that one or two votes

do

tend to draw the quiet people out, especially if they are town. Lining up lynches at this time is just plain wrong.

Vote: Bogre

Mafiamann looks very scummy indeed. Still, his meta is holding me back from the wagon for now, plus the fact I am in no hurry to end this day.

[Cass]

Huh? In what situation is a counter claim even possible? Waiting for that just makes no sense...

[Cass]

I read the rules. What I got from them, is that a name-counter claim will never happen. And a vanilla counter claim would be... funny

[Cass]

I'd think, flavor-wise, that the predator(s) are serial killer-like roles. Birds don't tend to work in groups. So bussing seesm out of the question. Looks like Clock was trying to set someone up and he underestimated the meerkat (It did make for an awesome deathscene!)

So looking for connections seems pointless. It doesn't clear MM either, not at all. Killing a townie

and

a competitor would be double profit for an SK.

[Cass]

@Jonathan: with MM's meta, I mean that I've seen him play

extremely

scummy in another game. This by no means convinces me of his innocence, nor should it. But it does make me want to avoid a quick lynch on him and a short day. There's no need to hurry.

[Cass]

Because I'm convinced he was an SK, and the meerkats from the other burrow are the mafia. I said 'birds' as in the genus, as in 'birds of prey do not tend to work in groups'. It was just a flavor reason to also think he was an SK and not mafia. I would in fact expect a different kind of animal

if

there's a second predator.

But no nightkills seems to point to only one SK, possibly. Maybe. Though we should probably wait until the next day at least before we start speculating in earnest.

[Cass]

Exactly, we have no way of knowing what it means, so we should wait for more evidence before we form theories. I don't hink it is

better

to not analyze the Clock/Woodman death, I just don't think it will lead us to scum.

[Cass]

No, look into it by all means, you're quite correct that it is all we have to go off right now, besides the day 1 posting and voting patterns of course. I am certainly inerested in your (or anyones) findings, perhaps I'm wrong and there is something to be found there.

[Cass]

I do think that Bogre and Stranger are the scummiest players. Mainly for their behaviour day 1. SC also for his odd first post today. Bogre also for his disappearing act.

I would like you both to defend or at least explain yourselves.

[Cass]

Stranger, I think there was a theory that Clock killed woodsman as an attempt to frame MM. Would make more sense that he was trying to frame someone else though, as MM was already going down. I should reread everyone in isolation, maybe there is some manipulation to be found.

[Cass]

Jonathan, Bogre, Muffinhead - post something.

About Clock: he throws suspicion on MM, SC, Wolfram. Kind of buddies up to SC with opposing early L-3 wagons. Throws more suspicion on MM. Then denies he's suspicious of anyone. Builds some more suspicion on MM, subtly. Then votes him (finally!), saying he thought he was voting MM already... A bit later, he makes a large case agaist MM. Buddies a bit with Rhinox. Likes the suspicion on TPT too. Pushes MM to claim, and especially claim flavor... Throws lots of suspicion on Bogre and some on Jonathan. Does not suspect Ectomancer. More pushing MM for flavor. More trying to get MM lynched. More buddying with Rhinox. Says he 'sucks as scum' Some suspicion on Stranger, subtly. Says 'I'll have more information later'. Fake breadcrumbing? Setting up for a false-claim? Oddly, asks for name-counterclaim. Dies tragically.

Basically, lots of FoSes, but he only ever voted MM and pushed his lynch quite strongly. I can imagine he wanted to accuse him of killing woodsman, and after the flip find a new scapegoat for that one. Secretly lining up lynches or planning some kind of complicated false-claim.

[Cass]

Well, this game has slowed down... Maybe some pressure will help? Because
-I thought he was scummy yesterday,
-he's not contributing today,
-we need a bandwagon, and I like this one:

Vote: Bogre

[Cass]

SC, I gave reasons in my post. Plus, see here a post I made last thursday:

I do think that Bogre and Stranger are the scummiest players. Mainly for their behaviour day 1. SC also for his odd first post today. Bogre also for his disappearing act.

I would like you both to defend or at least explain yourselves.

I was also voting Bogre yesterday. He hasn't exactly defended himself since. There has been nothing opportunistic about my play today, that is a horrible misrepresentation (not to mention very lazy playing - unless you have been reading and it was OMGUS?). You're rising fast towards scummiest of the day.

FoS StrangerCoug

[Cass]

He also made only one post this entire game-day, in which he didn't address these issues at all. Nor anything else of relevance. Trying to stay off the radar by disappearing? That just doesn't fly. A bandwagon is good. A lynch I wouldn't regret.

If I had two votes, I'd vote StrangerCoug too.

@Stranger: YES it is scummy to vote someone for a post you apparantly didn't even read all the way through. Especially if your cited reason is 'opportunism' . It wasn't exactly a wall of text either...

[Cass]

While the case on Muffin seems strong, I feel that to unvote Bogre would be to reward his lurking. So I'd still prefer that lynch... But Muffin looks bad, and the 'honestly'-tell is interesting. It would be ideal if Bogre'd just speak up and give his opinion on the situation

[Cass]

Also cass explain what ive done thats scummy besides the fact that i said "honest" since that is a load of rubbish and an incorrect theory because im town. Also dont use the fact that I dont understand the bogre case.

Yeah, sorry, but those things are pretty central to the case on you.
CKD explained quite well why he thinks 'hoestly' is a scumtell - it seems very unlikely to me that he is lying. If you flip town, that would look ugly for him. The Bogre case has been explained to you in very nice, clear short posts, two or three times already. So your refusal to respond to that with anything more than 'I don't get the case' does not look good at all. It makes me think you're his buddy.

Major FoS: Muffin

Keeping my vote on Bogre, for reasons I've already stated. Though I'll probably hammer Muffin if it comes to that.

[Cass]

Claim or die, muffinhead.

QFT. Based on the claim, I'll decide if I want to hammer.

@Bogre: show up, dammit! We need to hear your opinion on Muffin, your defense of yourself and some general involvement in the game. At this rate, you're going to be tomorrow's lynch - but if you'd only post, you could easily save yourself. (Assuming you're town, of course. If you're scum, keep lurking .)

[Cass]

Welcome Vi, nice to see you again

I feel I should explain a bit about my view on the Bogre case. he made some pretty scummy post (they have been summarized a while ago), and this scumminess got multiplied about tenfold by his lack of response and his lurking. Now that you're here and talking I'm ok with lynching someone else today.

Unvote

I also want to be honest and say I still have my reservations about the muffin lynch. While he is definitely scummy, a) I have the same issue Vi mentions - a large amount of players that set of alarms in my head, making me doubt that I'm looking at the right one, and b) I don't really like Vi painting Muffin as a good 'utility lynch'. Not because it isn't true, it just feels off, coming from him. That combined with me pursuing the Bogre lynch for a long time... well, I'll just keep an eye on him I guess.

@Muffin: please claim. Especially if you're town. Extra especially if you have information for town.

[Cass]

I also feel that Cass is trying to backpedal out of the muffin case a bit.

@Muffin: please claim. Especially if you're town. Extra especially if you have information for town.
Before muffin even claimed, she is already submitting that she might have a problem hammering. Also unsettling is that Cass is asking for the second time for muffin to claim (note: muffin is still inactive, and would presumedly read all the requests to claim - no need to keep demanding it) and what is especially concerning is that Cass is specifically asking for information that would help the town that would presumedly only come from a power role. This is basically the same thing Clock did by asking for "more flavor".

I've always preferred the Bogre lynch, and my vote expressed that. But (before replacements) I would have considered hammering Muffin when that choice had to be made. Because I saw the value of the case, and the possibility of the pairing. Now everybody seems to think that Bogre was innocent after all - and indeed, if Bogre had made a post like that, I would probably have unvoted him. His lurking strongly reinforced my case. This shift on Bogre also makes me doubt more that Muffin is scum, yes.

And no, Bogre couldn't have said just anything to remove my vote... though perhaps, you know, I wanted him to think so?

And

I am by no means doing what clock did

. Clock asked for flavor on a vanilla claim. I want to make sure we don't lynch a power role before he gets a chance to claim. Won't you feel stupid if you hammer and he turns out to be a cop? (For example, obv.) For that reason, I do ask you to wait until Muffin has been online at least (or gets replaced).

[Cass]

Yep, I'm also waiting on Muffin. Recent posts have me doubting this lynch, I want to hear his claim so I can decide where I stand.

[Cass]

Hm, great...

I propose we let him live for now. That will at least improve the amount of information we gain from next night.

Muffin, why did you check me instead of anyone else?

[Cass]

@Cass: cass wrote:
Hm, great...
I propose we let him live for now. That will at least improve the amount of information we gain from next night.

This is a tough spot for you to be in, eh cass? If you're town, you can't just believe muffin's claim because he would know you're not his scum partner. If you're scum, you would want to keep muffin alive because if he's killed, his sanity could be revealed. And if you're both scum, muffin's claim is a potentially brilliant gambit that will make one of you look good if the other dies.
One question for you though... How will leaving muffin alive improve the amount of information we gain next night?

I indeed dislike the position it puts me in. Knowing my role, I'm sure he is not an insane cop. Naive wouldn't fit with his character, flavour-wise. He could still be scum of course.
Keeping him alive is useful because we get another investigate. If he's town, this is obviously good. if he is scum, we could still get some interesting responses from people. The scenario I fear is this: we lynch him. He flips town cop. I am now confirmed innocent. I am NK-ed. That leaves the town two people less and no information richer.

The coincidence of me mentioning a cop and him claiming a cop who had checked on me does feel odd... what it means to me is a larger chance that he is scum.

His claim:

Im yossarian, A roving male of the group (aka cop). I dont know whther i can give to much of a description but it does note that im troubled whatever that means.

"a roving male of the group": is it just me or does this not add up? This claim sounds really weird to me, it feels like weak false-claim. Selective paraphrasing of the role PM. "Troubled"

could

point to insane cop, but because of his claimed result on me, I know that he isn't. So - even though it bodes ill for my fate, I couldn't blame anyone for hammering him :p

[Cass]

Dear, that was not a very convincing post by muffin. What I find really strange is that he doesn't put me in his list of town - apparantly he doesn't trust his own investigations at all.

I'm not convinced by the cop-claim, but I like giving claimed roles the benefit of the doubt... also, his death would not make my future brighter. But as thingas stand, I think

someone

is going to hammer him. So that might as well be me. I'm willing to do it, but I'll wait a day or so to see if muffin has anything better to say, or if someone objects to the hammer in general with goos reasons.

[Cass]

I think Muffin either picked a random townie to declare innocent, or he went off my post that expressed lynching cops is bad, and it was a buddying attempt.

I am much looking forward to ecto's response to your accusations - the interaction between him and muffin was indeed interesting.

I think, though this is purely intuition, that there are two more scum. Either two more commandoes, or one commando and one predator. So, one possibility is that Ecto is a commando and Jonathan a predator. (Although in that case, the low amount of kills is puzzling.)

Vi "the babysitter" - sounds like a protective power role to me. Could he have been a doc, perhaps? Or, if we take the flavor very literally, a bodyguard? Then, besides self-defense and framing, an alternative reason for the NK might have been misdirection (Vi protected whoever was targeted).

[Cass]

Sorry for not posting more in this game. I'll try to be better.

Ecto's defense is very weak and, I dunno... weasely? It makes no sense to me at all. Jonathan's defense is not convincing either. I agree that these two are the biggest suspects right now.

After rereading, I don't think Jonathan is Muffin's buddy (unless, maybe, if there were three commandoes). He

could

be a serial killer - but that's mostly a gut feeling. Besides, we don't know if there's even a predator still alive. If I had to vote now, I'd vote for Ecto.

[Cass]

@Ectomancer: if had been on earlier, I might have hammered muffin instead of CKD. So I find it hard to see that as something scummy. There didn't seem to be much useful discussion anymore, a majority was convinced that he was scum, so a hammer seemed perfectly ok to me. Your defense that in certain circumstances it can be usefull to leave scum alive strikes me as really off - does it mean you knew yesterday that he was scum? Then why would you defend him? Semms self-destructive for a townie. It also simply does not apply to this situation. Bad fake-claim = lynch, definitely when there's still several scum alive.

[Cass]

Well, if you know someone is scum, and you defend him - things look bad for you after he get's lynched. Defending him is also pretty much by definition lying, which is a bad thing for a townie to do. The kind of thing that gets you killed.

[Cass]

Hm, that's quick, but certainly not unjustified. I too want a claim, and I won't hammer yet. I do think he's scum, but I want Jonathan to come back first, before I start contemplating ending the day.

[Cass]

Do you suppose claims are supposed to just leap forward anytime you ask for one CKD?

Let's put it this way: You're at lynch minus one. Claiming is the only chance you'll have of living at this point.

I have to disagree with this, and I have to agree with Ecto that this is a scummy thing to say. The day is only a few pages long. Ecto isn't confirmed scum or anything, so a quicklynch would be bad - and certainly unnecessary.

FoS: StrangerCoug

I don't think asking for a claim is bad (in fact, I would like one from Ecto), but it is definitely not the only chance to avoid a lynch, there is no need to do it right now, and as far as I am concerned anyone has a right to refuse to claim. In won't quicklynch Ecto over that.

[Cass]

Rishi apparently had a problem with my quoting the 'wall of text' and when I read that I was being asked not to spam, I overreacted. I'll be staying on long enough for you to lynch me and spare Rishi finding a replacement. My apologies to the mod for the drama.

I hate this kind of posting, jut giving up, rolling over and dying. Makes my fingers itch to pick up that hammer. Ecto, if you're town, at least claim. I won't ask again, if you still refuse I'll assume you don't have a saving claim and act accordingly.

[Cass]

Rishi apparently had a problem with my quoting the 'wall of text' and when I read that I was being asked not to spam, I overreacted. I'll be staying on long enough for you to lynch me and spare Rishi finding a replacement. My apologies to the mod for the drama.

I hate this kind of posting, jut giving up, rolling over and dying. Makes my fingers itch to pick up that hammer. Ecto, if you're town, at least claim. I won't ask again, if you still refuse I'll assume you don't have a saving claim and act accordingly.

Didn't you tell me not too long ago that Ectomancer has the right not to claim if he doesn't want to?

Yep, he has that right. And I have the right to ask for a claim.

[Cass]

Oh... that's nice. I think I believe both claims, they make perfect sense considering everything. I also don't think CKD is scum. So that leaves SC and Wolf, or possibly both. I need to reread as well to decide who to vote. If anyone wants me to claim, say so. I've no big problem with it, but see no need to either. (And would prefer not to if you people don't mind.)

[Cass]

That isn't exatly a case against Ecto, but it does feel off. Though the mention of my name as well (with seemingly little relevance) could be a breadcrumb. I'm curious about Jon's explanation.

[Cass]

I like the plan as it is, I can live with a SC lynch. I'll wait to vote for a bit, because of the mod's absence, but I am willing to hammer. That lynch and the following night should give us much more information tomorrow, with probably only one scum left. So looks good to me.

[Cass]

I was hesitant about lynching Muffin, at first because of the chance he was honest (less and less likely as he kept talking), and second because he had tied his fate to mine by 'clearing' me. I disliked that whole situation and that made me indecisive. In the end, I agreed with the lynch though and I would have hammered if that had been my choice to make.

I have to agree (again, even though it looks bad for me) that flavor-wise and balance-wise, a godfather

would

make sense. It has even crossed my mind that the cop might only detect predators, but I think Jonathan explicitly denied that.

[Cass]

I think we should lynch one of SC and Wolf today. I am inclined to believe the claims we have, so this seems a good chance at getting scum. I reread their recent posts, and I find Wolf the scummier of the two. Mainly because of this post:

With the four people you say we have left that you have not yet investigated I can't see rhinox as a scum or SK, he seems far too townie to me. Strangercoug I am not sure on now. I defended his posting before, but that was possibly a mistake on my part with this new information. Curiouskarmadog has sniffed out scum in this game and seems townie to me, more so then strangercoug at least. For myself, i am Maybelline, a vanilla townie. Right now I am good with just FoS StrangerCoug until others chime in.

Buddying to CKD, slowly gearing up to go after SC (because he'll have to), backpedalling on an earlier town read on him, trying to push the wagon subtly with a FoS - it all makes sense if he is scum.

So,

Vote: Wolframnhart

[Cass]

Set-up speculation: if I had to guess, I'd say
- 2 more commandoes, 60% chance
- 1 comm + 1 sk (or some weird other type of scum), 30% chance
- 1 commando, 10% chance

I alo belive in assuming the worst case scenario, just to be safe. I think wolf is a commando, and if he isn't, SC would be one. I think the second scum is among SC, Ecto (GF) and CKD. So, from my point of view, lynching Wolf gives a better than 50% chance of hitting scum. I prefer that over a policy lynch.

[Cass]

Your breakdown makes it seem like SC would be among either scum group. Why would Wolf give a better than 50% chance of hitting scum?

Well, I could have put Wolf in the second group too, but I was kinda working with the assumption we'd lynch him, so 'after lynching him', the second would be in that group. I suppose you couls switch the names of SC and Wolf in that whole story, but I think Wolf is the scummier of the two. Though it is a strong possibility that they are both scum. I also think Wolf is less likely to be the SK among them.

[Cass]

After CKD and SC's recent posts, I'm seriously considering switching my vote from wolf to SC. However, Ecto gives me a bad vibe too. My new paranoid theory: either wolf or SC is the last predator. Ecto is a mafia GF. Or, as SC suggested: there could be a traitor or something similar, instead of the second predator. Think about it, it would make sense both balance and flavour wise (a meerkat who decides to join the other group?).

Even crazier theory: there was no kill night one. What if there was a recruit instead? Read the flavor text for that morning and you'll see where my paranoia comes from.

Any of these theories could explain why the discussion about connections is so muddied.

[Cass]

I agree that Hannibal not being the GF does not mean there isn't one. Mods always make the flavor a bit unpredictable, and it looks like there is even another canon candidate for GF (Nikita). Also, GF in this flavor might no equal leader, i'd rather expect it to be an innocent-looking meerkat, who 'smells like a whisker' or something like that.
If I had to guess, I'd still say Wolf is a commando, and either Ecto or SC is a commando too. I have serious doubts there is a second predator at all.

[Cass]

Well, if I was a commando, then I would

have

to be a GF unless Jonathan and I are scum buddies, right? You do realize that the same argument could apply to you as well? .

Yes, I realize this. It's definitelty not an argumant for my own innocence

It's a nice cloud of suspicion cast here with this. We can't even kill Jonathan and reliably trust either one of us if we chase a GF spectre. My gut tells me that there isn't one based upon the game balance review we did. But my gut doesn't count in this case does it?

Well, i really hope you're right. And I wouldn't lynch you today either way. We'll see about the whole thing after today's lynch and the night results.

The bottom line is, there is no good move based upon the claim of Jonathan because there is always a what if, and the

worst

what if of all is if we attempt to act on it by lynching one of us and all 3 of us are telling the truth. I say worst because unless one of us is scum and we pick the right one, we learn nothing from the lynch except we were wrong about that person, and that person only.

I fully agree with you there. I tend to believe Jonathan, so I think we shouldn't lynch any of the three of us today.

[Cass]

Well, that's very interesting. CKD's breadcrumbs seem solid at first glance, and I can see SC as a SK. I think there's only one scum left, whether commando or SK.

I do not find SC's reaction convincing. To me, it would seem that either SC or CKD is scum - yet this is not SC's response at all. In my experience that is a scum-tell. Also, CKD's attack being a scum-tactic would only make sense if there's someone left in his group beside him. The main point of doubt is that Jon also claimed to be able to see predators.

Some paranoid theories:
- CKD is

commando

predator sniffer (or rolecop). SC is in this case actually a predator.
- CKD isn't sane. Would there be a flavor-reason for Tosca to be insane?

Rhinox seems town to me, Ecto and I are semi-confirmed town - and CKD seems more convincing than SC right now. All this makes me think SC is the lynch today.

[Cass]

Good points, SC. We can rule out insane. That makes it even more obvious (to me that is), that one of you two is lying. And indeed, Jon's claim is the main reason why i don't just believe CKD. Something's not adding up there. maybe Jon misread is role pm, maybe the mod was screwing with him. Or maybe CKD's well-planned false-claim got compromised...?

t is certainly possible that CKD is false-claiming. The only problem with that is, if you aren't SK, this would backfire on him and make him lose the game tomorrow. Or am I missing something here?

[Cass]

I just don't see four commando's. I can see three commando's and two SK's, that could be fairly balanced (esp. assuming they can cross-kill). So the option of CKD as a commando rolecop (or tracker, watcher, a lot of possible scum roles in this scenario) or whatever definitely is a serious option. But the conclusion does seem to be that killing SC is a good idea in pretty much any scenario.

Except if there's two commando's left. And I can really only see that happen in the scary case that they are some kind of recruiters. I'm not sure we can even still win in that case...

Ok, say
- We lynch SC. CKD is honest, or scum investigator and SC is SK. We probably get the last scum, but maybe not. If not, we have a problem in Lylo.
- We lynch SC. He's town. The next day, we lynch CKD for the win? A problem (well, a town loss :p ) occurs if there's a scum left besides CKD.
- We lynch CKD. He's town or scum investigator. We lynch SC next day for the win. Problem if there's another scum still alive.
- We lynch CKD. He's a commando goon. If this doesn't end the game, we have a problem in Lylo.

Heh, it seems that lynching SC or CKD today gives us similar probabilities. However, Rhinox claims commando immune, so perhaps that makes it better to get the potential SK with priority? Please, everyone, shoot as many holes in my reasoning as you can.

[Cass]

A predator detector seems to make sense with the flavor to me. And the point of at least two potential kills per day makes two cops not too improbable. It would make more sense for there to be a commando and a predator cop, but flavor wise it'd be a bit ridiculous if a sniffer couldn't see the difference between a predator and a whisker It's also possible there's a balancing factor we don't know about. For example, maybe jon would have died if he found a predator? Or there is a 'GF', undetectable scum. 'The Lover', perhaps was one?

@SC: what do

you

think is going on? If you're innocent, what's CKD? And what is he trying to do? And why would he think it could work?

[Cass]

I can see the sense of lynching CKD first, actually. If he's town, this confirms that SC is the last scum. If he's scum, well, good. I somehow feels safer for town to do it in that order. Does anyone disagree? If so, why?

I vote for replacing Ecto. Though it might be hard at this phase of the game, so if the majority wants to wait for him, that's allright with me too.

[Cass]

Yes, yes, I suppose I should hammer. SC does not sound convincing, and him being innocent is by far the less likely scenario here. I just hope we're not dealing with two scum, but ahwell. Let's be more optimistic and less paranoid.

Vote: StrangerCoug

Holding my breath...[/b]