mini 2140: partition (this is over)

[Kanna]

o/ excitement! i was really looking forward to this because of the playerlist!

tbh some self-destructive tenancy in me already wants to nuke group 1...

[Kanna]

i do like morning tweet's analysis.

without drinking too much wine, i think it's more likely there's more than one scum in group 1 and their plan is to bank on town paranoia not lynching them. otoh, i am paranoid and i don't know if the risk is worth it.

[Kanna]

P.S: I also enjoyed the song, Ame ✿

[Kanna]

tenancy

*TENDENCY

[Kanna]

I wouldn't discount all scum being in group 1. I think, provided the scumteam are a group of people who don't like playing scum, they might choose to go down together (worst case scenario). 1/1/1 seems like the safest option, but kind of demoralising if they know one of their guys go down no matter what they do.

after thinking about it i think there's *probably* at least 2 scum in group 1

i do agree with scumhunting though. I think our priority sorts are groups 2 and 3. Ame's idea is interesting, although it's one of those ideas that requires everyone to be on board with and i'm not sure if that will be the case

[Kanna]

It feels like a conspiracy.

✿!!!

[Kanna]

The sad thing is, even if there's 2 scum in group 1 and we lynch them, we still take down so many townies in the process

i feel like this is scumsided...

[Kanna]

Spoiler:

...I just noticed something lmfao

this has Hoc written all over it xDDD

yeah this has to be Hoc

I don't know what you're talking about, Ame.
:shiftyeyes:

I don't know what you're talking about, Ame.
:shiftyeyes:

look at the groups

I know it's about the groups. I can only think of 1 thing.

Group 1. One of these things is not like the others.

what is this?

[Kanna]

I think it's fairly likely that there are 2 scum in group 1, but not 3. I don't buy this reasoning from Albert.

or Kanna

Elaborate?

[Kanna]

Albert already reminds me of a certain fizzy drink orz

[Kanna]

Ame is probably town for her conspiracy theory. Knowing she was Paragon is interesting though, she felt completely different in that game.

you mean this? can you explain it and why you found it townie?

[Kanna]

Kanna feels like newbtown

✿

Also darn it, i missed clidd

[Kanna]

Spoiler:

...I just noticed something lmfao

this has Hoc written all over it xDDD

yeah this has to be Hoc

I don't know what you're talking about, Ame.
:shiftyeyes:

I don't know what you're talking about, Ame.
:shiftyeyes:

look at the groups

I know it's about the groups. I can only think of 1 thing.

Group 1. One of these things is not like the others.

what is this?

I think it's fairly likely that there are 2 scum in group 1, but not 3. I don't buy this reasoning from Albert.

or Kanna

Elaborate?

@Ame; can you answer my questions? specifically what went on in that first weird interaction and elaborate on the second one. does this mean you find me/ABR *thinking* this to be disingenuous or do you *disagree* with the theory?

[Kanna]

If I were scum I would put all in 1 group.

fwiw, i would also put all scum in group 1 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Kanna]

^ I was actually just thinking about the time heselfvotedinsconpiracyandididn'tgettoplay

great times!

p-edit: got ninja'd

[Kanna]

Kanna I'm not ignoring you, I'm just going to quote everything later. Actually, since I'm already typing this I can respond to 164. It's your reasoning that you are using to justify there being 3 scum in group 1 that comes off as disingenuous. Who do you know besides myself that hates being scum so much that they would throw all their eggs in one basket? It seems unlikely the entire scum team would agree to such a strategy.

who would do that? me. some other people have mentioned they would too. it's weird but i'm led to think there's something very appealing about 3 scum in group 1; the whole team united in one goal to protect their group and either of the others can go. it's a...emotional read?

i also tr ABR as i feel like this is a natural townie conclusion.

[Kanna]

a

*AN

I HAVE SINNED

[Kanna]

@Hoctac; how much experience do you have with Dsj and how confident are you of your read on him?

[Kanna]

urge to self-destruct...still present....

I agree with the morning/hoctac's assessments on the groups; my only problem is that i haven't really understood Dsj's thought process which is affecting my read (sorry). I will have to look at some meta.

If group 3 is cleared, then i think ABR is townie so that means scum is just clidd and 2 from group 1, or all 3 scum are in group 1.

but even if there's 1 scum in group 2, I'd actually rather lynch group 1 (2 scum) because otherwise, partition assignments can really mess us up the next day. like, really bad.

i keep thinking and i kind of want to go big or go home? ?

[Kanna]

but...pulling the trigger is so hard. Even though today is kind of the only day we have this option. I think we need to take our time with this.

[Kanna]

maybe i'm confbiasing but unless someone can convince me otherwise, i don't see group 2/3 being superior to a group 1 lynch??

[Kanna]

MAYBE...something to think about is the scumteam that made these partitions seem to be thoughtful individuals. I think they did meta research *and* took their time to come up with this super WIFOMy groups. Who is likely to do that?

[Kanna]

Sleeping on it Kanna, I still don't resonate with your reasoning. If scum were playing

go big or go home

why would they place all of their members in Group 1? The go big or go home strategy would be to place 0-1 member in Group 1 for a quick victory. I've been thinking how I'd go about this, and this is exactly what I'd do. MT stated that it was obvious to her that town would push for group 3, but I think it's obvious town would push for Group 1 with the idea of getting 2 scum. Moths fly to the brightest flame and G1 is like so wifomy in-your-face goading us to lynch there.

by "go big or go home," i mean

i

want to go big or go home (right now, by voting group 1). i still think 2+ scum in group 1 is what most people would do prediscussion. it's actually quite safe because you can blackmail town with how many lives they could potentially lose. i personally find 3/0/0 appealing, but (⍪_⍪)

my point is there's *at least* 2 scum in group 1, why do you keep focusing on 3/0/0?

[Kanna]

Kanna what are your reads on Clidd, Hoc, Raya, and Charmander?

i've realised i don't know clidd that well because i've only got meta + 1 game i played with him where I was scum. he's not a confident read, but recently he's said some stuff i agree with/think are townie. so, townish.

my Hoc read is

Spoiler:

Hoctac - Sometimes misreads his role PM. He's probably fine, but there's always the possibility. Nulltown.

Raya seems scummy to me, Charmander, i guess i can see being town based on nuance + group assignments.

what are your reads on them? why these in particular?

Also, Kanna, do you notice anything about 200?

i mean...i've disagreed with most of her takes so i don't know if you want my opinion (sorry)

[Kanna]

@Ame; I said that because it's the first thing that came to my mind - as in, I would totally do that and try to convince my team to do that, i thought i covered this.

[Kanna]

Hoctac - Sometimes misreads his role PM. He's probably fine, but there's always the possibility. Nulltown.

Please explain this because this is the exact opposite to how I'm seeing it.

If there are 2 scum in Group 1, and say, 1 in Group 2, we absolutely kill Group 1. Yes, scum/town ratio is better, but scum decide the partitions and it messes us up the next day. 1 lone scum is winnable.

[Kanna]

@Ame; I said that because it's the first thing that came to my mind - as in, I would totally do that and try to convince my team to do that, i thought i covered this.

Given the reasoning I provided, do you maintain yours?

i think what you said is possible, but it's like a double layer of wifom that i don't think is likely for scum to think of beforehand. most likely/natural is 2+ scum in Group 1, with 3/0/0 just being appealing

(๑•̀ㅁ•́๑)✧

[Kanna]

If 502 addressed toward me?

oh whoops, yeah my quotes got messed up... I meant this:

Even if we think there are 2+ scum in group 1, I think lynching it would be bad gameplay. I haven't tried to do that math, but I suspect that going that route has a poor EV relative to the others.

[Kanna]

You 5 are my current scum pool.

can you explain why?

[Kanna]

i think what you said is possible, but it's like a double layer of wifom that i don't think is likely for scum to think of beforehand. most likely/natural is 2+ scum in Group 1, with 3/0/0 just being appealing

The fact that the distributions are built this way is exactly why it's likely they thought of it beforehand! It was obviously made by someone with foresight. If you had no knowledge of how the distributions were made today, how do you think you would have made them coming into the game?

it would depend on who was on my team was i think. without thinking about that...i would go for maybe 1 or 2 big groups and one small group? scum using numbers here is the biggest advantage they have.

wHICH is why i'm worried we'll be effed if we lynch wrong today

[Kanna]

can you explain why?

Yes.

(๑•̀ㅁ•́๑)✧ anticipation? ??

I'm especially curious about what you/hoctac were talking about earlier. I also recently had a cosmic-level interaction/guilty on someone.

[Kanna]

VOTE: Group 1 i've realised my heart's actually been set on this for a while so might as well do it \o/ freeedoommmmm

[Kanna]

If there are 2 scum in Group 1, and say, 1 in Group 2, we absolutely kill Group 1. Yes, scum/town ratio is better, but scum decide the partitions and it messes us up the next day. 1 lone scum is winnable.

This is just based on my conversation with Charmander earlier (sorry Char I don't have your name off the top of my head), I haven't had the time to look into the math yet, but intuitively it seems like we have a lower probability of winning going the G1 route. If there is 1 scum, we lose automatically. If there are 2 scum, scum has a 2/3 chance of winning the next day. If we lynch G2 and there is 1 scum, then...If we lynch G3 and there is 1 scum...If we lynch G3 and there is 2 scum... (and that's where my brain is stopping). But I think going the route of minimizing casualties is better for our chances of winning, particularly because we can get more days and scumhunting out of it and will have flips to work off of. Whereas going G1 we are essentially gambling without prior knowledge of who is on the scum team and how they think. Going one of the other groups actually gives us

evidence

of how they think and we can work from there. Right now we are just random guessing and going in circles.

pedit: enomis, that's it

also with this, it should be noted that SCUM decide on partitions. we can't even lynch who we want. scum aren't going to play nice.

if you think there are 2 scum in 2, whether it's me/hoctoc/raya, voting group 1 should be the best choice.

[Kanna]

@hoctac; don't worry, i may or may not have another cosmic-brain read on you. not that it matters.

[Kanna]

Spoiler:

...I just noticed something lmfao

this has Hoc written all over it xDDD

yeah this has to be Hoc

I don't know what you're talking about, Ame.
:shiftyeyes:

I don't know what you're talking about, Ame.
:shiftyeyes:

look at the groups

I know it's about the groups. I can only think of 1 thing.

Group 1. One of these things is not like the others.

what is this?

There aren't any females in Groups 2 or 3. I was contemplating on whether it just happened to turn out that way, but considering the proportion this game, I think it's an unlikely a coincidence and the groups were intentionally made on this basis. Also we are in alphabetical order. In the last game, the names were more randomly spread about. Hoc is the only male in the first group (and dragon half). This makes me think that either a) Hoc is pulling a funny one or b) The scum team consists of players who didn't know what Hoc's gender was.

O H that is hilarious.

so that's why hoctac didn't want to lynch his group....✿

[Kanna]

anyway, kanna here, expressing her support for self-destruction and giving her last o7.

i think this is the right choice. ABR and (now) clidd seem like pretty solid trs to me so i agree the only scenario we have to worry about is 2 scum in 3 which i think is unlikely. of the three in group 3, mohab is probably my strongest tr, and i think eno is also townie because of some nuancy reasons. i'm still not sure on dsj. that's my best guess.

[Kanna]

no idea how ABR saved this game!!! wow!!