Mini 2110: I hate Mafia (Day 8)

[Hectic]

Helo Hectic to i hate mafia

ur a town person. good luck!

[Hectic]

Ah, damn. I've accidentally slipped my Role PM into the thread. Quick, lynch me before the mod notices!

VOTE: Farkhan

[Hectic]

So, the group is Me, Enter, Venmar and I think Farkran volunteered?
That would leave two more slots to volunteer, and the vig still needs to claim when they show up.

Very interested in this plan of yours, Rau.
I nominate myself as champion.

[Hectic]

So Venmar thinks Farkran's post is scummy because of the way he made it and the timing of it. Mechanically speaking, of course it's not AI.
Venmar and Enter are both town I think. Fine with lynching Venmar in that case.

VOTE: Venmar

[Hectic]

Well, I'm still waiting on two more volunteers to never get lynched before I can reveal my plan.

You've taken note of my volunteer. Right, Rau?

[Hectic]

I've decided to rebel against the spirit of this game as I actually

love

mafia. I know this will come as a disappointment to those who were looking forward to lynch me, as several have expressed up to this point that I am "conftown based on his gamesolving" but sorry friends, I enjoy the game far too much to go out like that.

[Hectic]

To whoever asked me why I voted for Farkhan:
It was because I was townreading him early on based on reasons I have now completely forgotten but will likely come back to in the future once I ISO him. Hope this helps.

UNVOTE: Venmar

I'm of the opinion that we should keep very strong townreads around to help gamesolve since we plan on lynching them eventually anyway. That opinion extends to Rau currently. Enter would be useful to have around as well, though my townread is not as strong on that particular individual.

[Hectic]

Hmm, why did I unvote Venmar in that same post? Didn't really notice myself doing it. Very strange.
Perhaps I have an subconscious strong townread on him and as a result I automatically unvoted while making that post.
Thing is, keeping all of our strong townreads alive would be impractical as we do have to avoid lynching Mimes, so I can settle for my 3rd or 4th strongest townread.

VOTE: Venmar

[Hectic]

I wanted to offer, I just wanted him to either give some reads or at least have some clue what the plan is first. :/

Interesting.

[Hectic]

I didn't notice Hectic volunteering. The group is me, Enter, Venmar, Farkran, Hectic, and DrDolittle. There are now four possibilities. Either 0, 1, 2, or 3 mimes are in the group that volunteered. The game is now divided into three groups, the vig, the group that volunteered, and everyone else.

What's going to happen next, is we're going to ignore what I said earlier about not lynching in that group. The vig is going to shoot someone. Anyone except themselves. And as long as there aren't 2 mimes in that group then town wins.

If the vig shoots town, then the lynch will be in the group the vig shot in. If the vig shoots a mime, then the lynch will be in the group the vig didn't shoot.
On every future day, if the previous day's lynch was on town then you'll lynch in the same group that player was in. If the previous day's lynch was on a mime then you'll lynch in the other group.
Once there are the same number of town and mimes, not including the vig, lynch the vig, and get a town victory.

Hi there, Rau. I hope you're doing well.

If the mimes were randomly allocated between the two groups, and if we take any given group, there's a 1/8 chance of 0 mimes in that group, 1/8 chance of 3, 3/8 of 1, and 3/8 of 2. So if you're claiming we always win if the group picked doesn't have 2 mimes in it - which does seem to be the case after simulating the scenarios in my head - we have a 5/8 chance of winning using this plan, which isn't half bad, Rau.

Let's follow this plan of taking turns lynching in the groups, while also using our reads to lynch the towniest person possible when it's time to lynch in a given group. Shoot someone in Rau and I's group, Wake, and let's get this show on the road.

[Hectic]

Never mind, it's actually a 1/11 chance of getting 0 mimes in a group, and a 1/11 chance of getting 3 in a group.

[Hectic]

Still, a 13/22 chance (or 59%) of winning using this strat isn't bad, though I do suspect that it isn't any better than random lynching. It just gives order to random lynching but doesn't actually improve the odds, unless you can enlighten me, Rau.

[Hectic]

Assuming Rau's on L-1 and hasn't hammered himself, we can treat him as confirmed town from this point onwards, and he can help us lynch townies. If it ever gets to a point where we have to lynch correctly or we lose, we can lynch the vig or Rau.

This strategy won't work for future people who reach L-1, as they can intentionally not hammer to get the same logic applied to them.

Unvote for Rau, people.

[Hectic]

Still, a 13/22 chance (or 59%) of winning using this strat isn't bad, though I do suspect that it isn't any better than random lynching. It just gives order to random lynching but doesn't actually improve the odds, unless you can enlighten me, Rau.

Oh, wait. I didn't account for the fact the vig is a safe lynch in my calculations. Too lazy to try again.
Basically: This setup seems pretty townsided even if we just randomly lynch. Considering the fact we can actually use reads to lynch, and that if we nail just one scummy player, we win, this should be pretty easy.

[Hectic]

Still, a 13/22 chance (or 59%) of winning using this strat isn't bad, though I do suspect that it isn't any better than random lynching. It just gives order to random lynching but doesn't actually improve the odds, unless you can enlighten me, Rau.

Oh, wait. I didn't account for the fact the vig is a safe lynch in my calculations. Too lazy to try again.
Basically: This setup seems pretty townsided even if we just randomly lynch. Considering the fact we can actually use reads to lynch, and that if we nail just one scummy player, we win, this should be pretty easy.

Oh, wait, oh, wait. 59% is actually correct, since the scenario Rau outlined accounts for lynching the vig, and that's why we always win if there's 0, 1, or 3 mimes in a group.
Now that we can treat Rau as a conftown, even better though.

[Hectic]

Since I am confirmed Town I will be the last Town member to be lynched, and I will vote myself.

Then again if we leave all 3 Mimes alive how do I get lynched if they won't allow it?

There'd be 7 players alive in such a situation, and the 3 other townies would vote alongside you for yourself.

Can whoever's doing all this setup spec stop now? It's making me nauseous.

[Hectic]

Wake doesn't need to shoot straight away. He could shoot after we lynch, and that gives us more time to discuss the shot after seeing the lynchee's flip.

I don't mind lynching Venmar or Farkran. We keep Rau around as conftown.

VOTE: Venmar

[Hectic]

VOTE: Rau

I support this plan. Also I'm a mime, so don't shoot or lynch me unless it's a last resort sort of deal.

People leaving Rau wagon make me nervous.

Why not leave Rau around, so that he can help us gamesolve, and we can treat him as conftown?

Really don't think we should be lynching Rau here. He's basically confirmed from his early solving and not hammering himself.

[Hectic]

VOTE: Farkran

[Hectic]

@Rau Could you explain why lynching using your group system is any better than lynching randomly?
Your group system gives us clear odds and percentages of when we should expect to win, but I don't see how it actually increases our chances of winning, statistically speaking, over random lynching?

[Hectic]

What is?

[Hectic]

I doubt mimes wouldn't volunteer since there was no agreement that we would go forward with your plan, and it's an easy way to look town if they volunteer knowing the plan might not even formulate and be followed through.

On an unrelated note, Creature is looking Mimey here. He feels different this game.

[Hectic]

[Hectic]

Uhhhhh... ignore that please. I misclicked.

FINE. I have a folder of mimes and collect mime related merchandise, SO WHAT? It doesn't mean I'm a Mime myself... leave me alone.

[Hectic]

Still think we should've kept Rau around and treated him as a semi-confirmed town.

grumble grumble
I don't want to be lynched yet.

@Pyrrha: Why did Ray flipping town better your read on Venmar? Rau was a consensus townread, does this mean his flip has bettered your read on everyone then?

Happy to lynch Farkran but he could be useful to keep around. Venmar's probably fine but I'll ISO him again to double check.

[Hectic]

Pyrrha, Map Wolf, DDL, Creature Mime team.
You guys need to sort out which if you is town.

[Hectic]

Fypov, how does my wanting not to lynch you today mime indicative? I’m liking your approach to the game and think it’s suboptimal for you to die today, which according post 404, you don’t want anyway but I’m not opposed to it either.

What I found Mime-indicative about your post was you saying Venmar gets towncred for correctly townreading Rau. Literally everyone in the game was townreading Rau, so I don't like that line of reasoning.

And yeah, would rather not be lynched today but I understand that's slightly selfish, so if you want to lynch me anyway, go for it.

[Hectic]

I'm less sold on hectic and enter tho, but I always scum read hectic :<

That's fine, I don't mind you scumreading me this game

[Hectic]

[Hectic]

Why are people townreading DDL? I didn't really like anything from his ISO, and he feels similar to the last game I played with scum!him where he was popping in with opinions but not many explanations.

[Hectic]

I wanted to offer, I just wanted him to either give some reads or at least have some clue what the plan is first. :/

Also, I find this slightly Mime-indicative. Could be Mime!Pyrrha giving excuses for why she didn't volunteer.

[Hectic]

I am not mime. If I was, I'd be doing a terrible job. I just have no idea how I want to approach this game.

Treat it like any other game. Talk about reads and interactions, it's still about solving alignments and finding out who's scummy/towny.
You haven't done much this game, but at second thought, that might just be lazy town. Mimes really need to be active to have a chance of being lynched in this format.

[Hectic]

The mod flipped Rau 1 vote early because he thought there were less players in the game and majority had been resched.

[Hectic]

A real shame because he should've stuck around to help us.
I've always had faith in him since that Grand Idea UPick game we had together.

[Hectic]

Yeah, it was a mod error but what can you do. I forgive you, Freezer, for bringing us this wonderful game.

DDL may not be pushing a Mime-agenda but he's popping in to give reads, trying to look towny by doing easy towny things like expressing opinions on mechanical stuff that's not difficult to comment on, but without actual giving anything substantial, like why someone is a Mime/Town.

[Hectic]

I'm starting to think all these "i want X alive longer" actually mean "i don't want to lynch there because i know he's town, let's pick a different target until i can find some solid reason to scumread the consensus lynch".

There are several samples of this specific mindset coming from Enter, Pyrrha, Map Wolf and Hectic. Among those, i'm mostly suspicious of Pyrrha and Map Wolf - there's no real reason to wait on Hectic now that he produced reads (which i mostly agree with), and i don't like talking about myself but i also produced a lot of content, although my reads have't been confirmed in any possible way. I mean, there's no reason to say i am better than anyone else, nor Hectic, until our reads flip and we're proven right or wrong. I feel like wanting to stall townread lynches is becoming a mime trend to lead lynches on mimes.

I mean, if we are to follow rauth strat, we need to lynch in {Enter, Hectic, Farkran, DDL, Venmar}. Out of these i'm townreading Enter and Hectic the most, and now that Hectic produced reads i have no reserves in giving him the peace he deserves.

VOTE: Hectic

RIP

Rest in peace, me. I'm on L-1 now I believe. This might be the one time I'll ever self-hammer, since it's actually a good play for my alignment.

[Hectic]

Just remember that Creature's probably a Mime this game. He spam posts more as town, and his posting this game hasn't felt very natural. Also this:

tbh I feel like shit having to spam a lot, but it feels so compulsive

[Hectic]

VOTE: Hectic

[Hectic]

Pretty sure I'm dead and am speaking to you via otherworldly means.

[Hectic]

Woah, how am I still alive? Maybe I'm immortal or something.

Venmar slot is townier after the ragequit, only skimmed, will say more later if I'm still alive.

[Hectic]

UNVOTE:

[Hectic]

@Pyrrha: I think I already mentioned Creature, but his entrance felt less natural/more forced, and I think he was being honest when he said he feels like he has to hyperpost, since not doing it as scum will get him scumread. Then there's this weird scumread on Pine, and doubling down on it by saying everyone else is townier.

Gamma could be scum here, and the detachment excuse comes form scum more often than town, since scum need to be active and vocal to get lynched, and Gamma actually being detached is going to hurt scum!him more.

DDL isn't doing enough or giving substantial reads/opinions. He's been giving out reads, but they're naked reads. And the mechanical discussion he's been engaging in isn't difficult to do, and should be regarded as NAI. Basically, he pings me as trying to appear town without actually doing very towny things.

[Hectic]

VOTE: Venmar

Maybe I'm a secret Lynchproof role.

[Hectic]

It's an excuse to contribute less. Mimes care more about that.

[Hectic]

Well played, Mimes.

I really wish I hadn't been lynched when I did. I had my doubts about Buki but I didn't want to try and play a game I wasn't alive for, but oh well.

Same, I wish I could've stayed in longer. Had the right idea about Pyrhha and Gamma early on, and I was getting massive scum pings while reading Farkran's talk about "oh good job guys we won" and "everyone not voting me is confirmed mime".

[Hectic]

This setup is made a lot harder by inactives and scummy town, as they stay around for the whole game while the towny active people get lynched off.

[Hectic]

Interesting idea though, would replay with some alterations made to spice it up.

[Hectic]

I'm thinking maybe on Day 1 have a vote to give a town player the vigilante shot? It only succeeds if a town player is the one nominated? Not sure how much that messes up the balance

I think that makes it really difficult for scum, since you just try to nominate scum day 1, and if you're correct, you instawin by never lynching them.
Having the vig also be a one-shot treestumper by being the hammer would help.