Mini 627 - Riverworld Smalltown - Over!!!

[shaft.ed]

Damn I didn't think anyone would take him

[shaft.ed]

I'm assuming Future Man works with both lynches and NK attempts? It will also be spent prior to a Doc protection correct?

[shaft.ed]

Nother question. Does the Hider die if targeting mafia or the SK, or only if targeting someone who themselves does not survive the night.

Also if the hider targets future man, and the future man loses a life but does not die, will the Hider die?

[shaft.ed]

speaking of the set up, I have made one change (doesnt matter since the SK has not been randomly selected yet). To give the SK a chance to win, he can now submit a kill and use his ability in the same night.

Phew, I was wondering how you intended him to have any chance.

One last Hider related question. Pretty sure I understand this right, but if the Hider hides they cannot be targeted for watching or tracking, but if their target is watched they will then be seen?

I'll take the Claire Geller either way.

[shaft.ed]

Do you guys want to discuss setup choices?

Someone should pick stephen king so we can break the setup

I didn't have the balls to take a high profile target

[shaft.ed]

Another rules question:

3.) If one Mafioso or Serial Killer and one town-aligned player are the last two players alive, the Mafioso/Serial Killer wins. If one Mafioso and Serial Killer are the last two players remaining, everyone dies and no one wins.

Is this even the case if the last townie has a killing role, like the Bomb. Or if the last scum has been poisoned so he will die whilst performing the NK?

[shaft.ed]

I didn't have the balls to take a high profile target

I was this close to picking him - but I couldn't let the two word P.R. pass

I seriously don't see him surviving passed Day 2.

More annoying detailed role mechanic questions.

If the inventor passes you an ability, can you use that in addition to your ability/NK?

If the inventor targets the hiding hider will it be the same effect as with watcher tracker etc. (I suppose all roles will function as the watcher and tracker in not being able to directly target the hiding hider)?

If the bomb targets someone who doesn't die (ie doc protected, future man, hiding hider) does the bomb die?

[shaft.ed]

OK claus tell us about the breaking strategy before you get your scum role PM.

[shaft.ed]

I think the bomb and the double voter are going to get left out. Double voter's get no love.

[shaft.ed]

Also, since Brog is a neanderthal, can I even speak coherently?

apparently as long as he doesn't have autism he's good to go.

[shaft.ed]

I think the bomb and the double voter are going to get left out. Double voter's get no love.

I wouldn't say that >.>

Just waiting on Winter...

So you'd rather be a double voter than a Doc/Watcher/Inventor? I guess it is a power that swings nicely in both directions, but you'll have to make it to end game for it to reach its full potential.

[shaft.ed]

My brain hurts slightly.

That will happen in small town's. It's compression not enough room for the brains due to the tiny town size.

[shaft.ed]

Waiting on Pug... who looks as though he's going to be stuck with the Doctor.

Could take the inventor, the one shot cop might be critical. Doc protects hardly ever matter, but I guess with all the beefy power roles the threat of a Doc is most useful.

[shaft.ed]

Could take the inventor, the one shot cop might be critical. Doc protects hardly ever matter, but I guess with all the beefy power roles the threat of a Doc is most useful.

The Doctor would make a good team with the Role Absorber, too... which reminds me:

What happens if the Role Absorber is targeted by the Inventor?

He gets to pass on the role to another player as the inventor did. Whatever role he received from the inventor.

[shaft.ed]

Holy crap, if Stephen King is scum…

XD

Nah his lack of dying will be pretty obvious.

[shaft.ed]

Holy crap, if Stephen King is scum…

XD

Nah his lack of dying will be pretty obvious.

But if we have a doc protecting him…

Doc Dies N1, King Dies N2. Remember you have two killing roles about it doesn't take much to remove important cogs from the machine. Also remember the scum will control some of these roles so the cogs may not even exist.

[shaft.ed]

Holy crap, if Stephen King is scum…

XD

Nah his lack of dying will be pretty obvious.

But if we have a doc protecting him…

Doc Dies N1, King Dies N2. Remember you have two killing roles about it doesn't take much to remove important cogs from the machine. Also remember the scum will control some of these roles so the cogs may not even exist.

Well the tracker/watcher/both will be all over the doc and if there isn't one, then they will be all over King. Just saying.

But the tracker & watcher also might want to pass on their powers to the absorber in case they die. Also the odds of 4 players (King, Doc, watcher, tracker) all being on the same side are not huge.

It's actually best for the Jailkeeper to protect King N1 anyway because he will not have any investigating to do.

[shaft.ed]

Will King's results tell at what time and in what capacity the subject was targeted by each player?

I don't think so, that would be incredibly imbalanced.

[shaft.ed]

Moar questions

Does motivation make one shot abilities (Inventor JoaT) two shot abilities during the motivation period (ie can the inventor send out two cop investigations if he gets motivated?).

[shaft.ed]

Wow we went from 500 to 12 in one night. Whoever did all that killing must be really tired.

vote: Winter

so I can get double OMGUS'd

[shaft.ed]

Yeah Smalltown's generally have an initial discussion about the viability of a No Lynch to start off the game. I'm still not sure what's the right way to go on this. And it obviously depends on the quality of the D1 leads we get.

In Heroes I refused to lynch certain players simply because of the power roles they possessed. I think in this game that is a mistake because the town seems more loaded here than in Heroes, and we got burnt with the scum having two useful power roles.

The lack of a Doc makes the night phase a lot more difficult. I expect the scum to try taking out our protective roles tonight, allowing for our investigative roles to be vulnerable in the future. But the scum have A LOT to worry about in this set up. I'm not sure if we should bring up all the great possible targets for everyone , but this might be helpful as it will bring up a lot of WIFOM when the scum do pick night kill, we may be able to force them towards a less optimal target at the very least.

Anyway I see about 3-4 very nice targets for the Jailkeep. I wouldn't say King is a given as we don't have a Doc. We have one particularly vulnerable role right now. Also a policy we had in Heroes was that the motivator would target a player, that player would use one of their extra targets to hit the role absorber. Don't know how helpful that was, as the absorber was scum in our game, but something to think about if you receive the motivation.

Finally I think my target tonight is the most obvious

[shaft.ed]

Why is Jailer targetting king on Night 1 "a given"?

To prevent him from dying N1 so he can be protected N2 and find a scum.

My main issue is whether I should shoot or track. I'm personally leaning track, but if I do shoot it should be the delayed one.

One thing to consider is that your odds of tracking a killer increase as the player pool decreases. On the other hand your odds of hilling the right person do the same.

[shaft.ed]

One thing to consider is that your odds of tracking a killer increase as the player pool decreases. On the other hand your odds of hilling the right person do the same.

Its less odds and more who would I be killing? Killing someone with a night action to use seems poor, so that really just leaves Winter (double vote) and Alabaska (double life). To be fair, both of these are roles that if scum are very dangerous to leave around, but then again so is mine. A delayed kill on Alabaska wouldn't be too bad though, as it doesn't eliminate a vote.

Forgive me if I don't want you to take away Alabaska's double life

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: But yes I have been concerned about the town's prospects should he be scum aligned.

[shaft.ed]

and to be honest I would rather you not hide for now as if scum try to kill you its +EV for town as its not a better role dying and we can just get 2 for 1'ed for no reason.

It's even better EV if they try to kill me and I'm not there.

I'm really not a fan of early vijings. But I certainly see the value in you targeting Alabaska. And I would highly suggest against basing targets on their possible value to the town. That got us into heeps of trouble in Heroes.

[shaft.ed]

I could grant an extra kill, I suppose. I'm not entirely sure why I would do that, though.

I don't think you can motivate 1 shot abilities. Though all vig roles were 1 shots.

[shaft.ed]

Unvote

since we're out of the random voting stage.

we are?

[shaft.ed]

Beware of set up discussion. It detracts from any meaningful reads of alignment. (although it is useful to some extent)

[shaft.ed]

Even if he was seriously voting NL, it's understandable in a smalltown. I don't see it as antitown. Also don't see any need to move my random vote.

[shaft.ed]

Scum will also know whether or not they are likely Jailkeeper targets. Being that we have no Doc, he will be forced to play a more protective role for now. That is something they are likely to take advantage of.

[shaft.ed]

I, on the other hand, am left to wonder if I'll even survive night 1. There's no one who can "protect the protector" so to speak. C'est la vie... (or maybe C'est la mort?)

Someone posted an interesting idea. Motivator targets me, then I target King and Claus. Now we have another JK to take over for me when I die. I'm not sure what to think about that just yet, but I am worried about the potential of creating a scum JK.

Hell, at that point the scum wouldn't even have to kill me, they could just JK me every night.

Yeah that's the ideal situation, whether or not it happens is another story since it's so choreographed optimal may not be optimal. Also don't foget the Watcher is also a protective role. Scum generally don't want a 1:1 trade for a NK, they're supposed to be free.

[shaft.ed]

Just be aware that if Claus is targetted by the jailkeeper tonight (or any other night for that matter), he won't be able to absorb any more abilities.

Why?

Because he's in Jail, no one can target him subsequently. See order of roles resolutions.

[shaft.ed]

Because he's in Jail, no one can target him subsequently. See order of roles resolutions.

He can still absorb them at a later time though.

Yes just not on that night.

[shaft.ed]

Being that we have no Doc, he will be forced to play a more protective role for now. That is something they are likely to take advantage of.

That's a good point but I do have the ability to give someone a one-shot Doc or NK immune. I can only do this once so it's obviously limited, but it's something to keep in mind.

Doh. I don't know how we overlooked that. Given the life expectancy of a Doc in this game I'd say you're pretty much an equivilant then.

[shaft.ed]

unvote, vote: CyberBob

. too touchy with the unvote IMO

[shaft.ed]

It seemed so thin. Not voteworthy at all. It struck me as so odd, that I thought it deserved my vote.

I agree with this to some extent, I'm not sure it's vote worthy on its own but shaft.ed's vote does seem extremely weak.

It was an extremely weak vote. There isn't really much going on and I wanted to move things away from role action discussion. It worked to some extent. And Bob's reaction was not bad. I don't really see Alabaska's vote as much weaker than mine. Twomz being silly I have to meta.

And now that I said we need to move things away from set up discussion...we need to decide on action claiming (or not claiming) TODAY.

I think popcorn dice is the ideal solution to this, but I think a full claim of all members of the town is certainly in the towns best interest however it occurs.

[shaft.ed]

I think popcorn dice is the ideal solution to this,

but I think a full claim of all members of the town is certainly in the towns best interest however it occurs.

Waaaaiit. Do you mean claiming before or after the fact?

I mean tommorow. I think we all need to claim exactly what we did tommorow. But we need to decide today how that will be resolved.

[shaft.ed]

Oh, that's alright then. I wasn't sure whether you were advocating claiming our actions today or tomorrow - if it had been today that would have been an entirely different kettle of fish.

For sure. And you aren't even supposed to put fish in a kettle.

[shaft.ed]

Depends, do we want to test to see if the investigative role(s) (me and maybe the hunter) are telling the truth or if the people who have other activities are telling the truth.

Basically, does the tracker, watcher, king, ect claim first or last?

Other than that and knowing who the jailkeeper targeted, is there anything else that is important to be told first? Or that should be held until after everyone else has gone?

From my experience in Heroes Smalltown, it's not the best of ideas to allow the watchers/trackers etc. to go last. If they are scum it's very difficult to lie about their target. If they know they're claiming last then it's easy to fabricate, if they know they're going first then someone else in the scum group can perform the kill. I wholeheartedly believe a randomized method is ideal.

[shaft.ed]

But, honestly, I think that No Lynch should be in the back of our minds. We should use it if no one really appears scummy and we end up deadlocked.

I agree with this idea. If we feel a deadline lynch is going to just be a random shot in the dark, then I'd rather a No Lynch. But if we have some leads then I'd prefer a lynch.

armlx, which of your three abilities do you think is the most pro-town to use tonight?

[shaft.ed]

Pug, DEF give someone a 1 shot cop at the least tonight.

While I agree this is optimal, I wouldn't make it mandatory. Pug's threat of being a Doctor will be very important in fending off scum NK's of primary targets. Of course being the Doctor could very well make you the primary target.

Also, I like how Alabaska has been opposed to the last two wagons but continues to vote shaft.ed for bafflingly weak reasons.

While I don't see anything scummy about maintaining a fairly low utility vote, I do find Alabaska's caution in the face of miniscule wagons a bit strange.

[shaft.ed]

Sorry need to give this game a bit more attention.

I have a slight feeling there is scum among the three in a row wagoners of theHermit.

Pug seems the most iffy with his OMGUS vote and agreeing on the asinine Cluas is hard to read point.

Alabaska feels a bit off as he seemed to be cautious with earlier wagons, but finds it OK jumping onto this more sizeable one.

I'm a bit suspicious of armlx, but I've found I get a mildly scummy read from towmlx in Space Monkey so I'm less trusting of his read atm.

[shaft.ed]

Maybe we decide who to Jail now? I really don't want to risk a randomized choice/uninformed b/c of a replacement issue.

This is very weird. Care to explain why this would matter?

Also I haven't liked Pug's last couple posts or his wagon vote. the analyses are superficial and could be an attempt to look like you're scum hunting.
Pug, why did you bother rereading Claus, do you really expect a two word poster to have said anything critical by now especially in isolation?

[shaft.ed]

Hi, all.

After first readthrough,

Vote: Winter

. He's using his double vote as an excuse for not scumhunting at all, and I don't like it.

Is there a specific example? I don't recall this event.

[shaft.ed]

Huh, I totally missed that. It's certainly odd as it's just an extra vote. It's not like he's a dayvig or something.

[shaft.ed]

If push comes to shove, i would be willing to vote W!nter over TheHermit, especially if its needed for deadline reasons.

Where does No Lynch fit into your preference for D1 end results?

[shaft.ed]

Also, @shaft.ed: I don't really understand where you are coming from. I was (kind of) on the early W!nt3r wagon, started your wagon, all before voting TheHermit. I have started to be a little more aggressive as of late, as I have come to be more aware of the fact that if I am lynched it will be revealed that I am pro-town, if this is what you mean, but I don't really see the changer as that drastic.

Sorry this was my bad memory. I thought you had pushed back against two "bandwagons" but it turns out you were only against Megatron. My mistake.

In other news has anyone accusing Winter of lurking noticed he doesn't really post much on site? Does this making lurking a valid tell?

[shaft.ed]

If Winter hasn't been posting in his other games, I think this makes the "active lurking" tell a lot less viable. Lurking isn't a tremendously good tell to start with, adding in that he seems to be away from the site entirely and... well, it becomes much too easy to chalk it up to "real life getting in the way".

This is setting off my scumdar like crazy. I need to figure out why fast or else I will go insane.

This is crap. As I and Rishi have already pointed out you can't using lurking as a scumtell for a guy that is not on site.

I'm getting a townie vibe from Claus. I don't think scum would go through the trouble of trying to point out there suspicions as he just did.

I'm leaning Alabaska at this point, though I really don't want to. He basically makes me NK immune as long as he has two lives, and "lynching" him will give us no alignment information today.

[shaft.ed]

Shaft.ed... iamausername??

Not seeing it, I'll get a reread in on Megatron I guess.

[shaft.ed]

I agree with Nabs point that an Alabaska "lynch" is preferable to a No Lynch at this point in time.

[shaft.ed]

And unlike other roles in the game, they have no ability to "check" to make sure they're not lying or faking.

Actually night time vanillas can very easily be "checked" in a smalltown. If they are tracked or watched going anywhere they're definitely scum.

[shaft.ed]

An issue I have with the vig'ing is that it choreographs armlx's play to the scum. Not a fan of that. If you are going the vig route could you please use poison so I have a safe place to hide for the night?

I'm getting a bit of a weird vibe from Rishi's recent Alabaska tunneling.

Also I'm not sure how to read Alabaska's recent poll request. Don't know if I agree with Nab that he was just trying to be cautious.

[shaft.ed]

Alabaska can you please also tell us what was your point with regards to Mayhem's post. What was scummy?

[shaft.ed]

I guess that's true.

I'm a little concerned at the large amount of agreement re Alabaska's character. I guess it all depends on his explanation.

I think people are being less careful towards him because of his double life. It's much less damaging, if he's town, to turn him vanilla then to outright kill him.

[shaft.ed]

mfos: Alabaska

---
Interesting


...


...


...


Nonsense
---

Sums it up better than I could have with more words.

Rishi, it just seems like every other post you are commenting about lynching Alabaska J. Feels like a gauge of reactions.

[shaft.ed]

both armlx and AlabaskaJ voted for him citing that post as part of the reason for voting him.

I don't think that helps your cause

[shaft.ed]

Yes, but there's no reasoning why Pug's vote continues to be on TheHermit. He talks about the suspicion in the past tense, but yet he never unvoted.

I'm not really worried about his not unvoting. I think I'm still on Cyberbob. I'm much more concerned about his "but the cool kids were doing it" reason for his vote not being scummy.

[shaft.ed]

TheHermit, vote NOW.

Do you really think everyone actually casting a vote is sitting on a case?

[shaft.ed]

I don't see a compelling case of iamusername or TheHermit, though I will reread them. At this point I'm leaning towards a Pug lynch. Rishi still isn't sitting right with me, and I'd also be OK with an Alabaska lynch as it frees up armlx for Tracking possibilites although the lack of information and "safety" of the play would probably be somewhat appealing to scum.

[shaft.ed]

Rishi still isn't sitting right with me, and I'd also be OK with an Alabaska lynch as it frees up armlx for Tracking possibilites although the lack of information and "safety" of the play would probably be somewhat appealing to scum.

This is exactly what you did in Open 44. You kept putting suspicion on me without any concrete evidence until people started to believe you.

I should also point out that I was town and you were scum in that game.

Yes I know This time it's different I swear.

[shaft.ed]

Ok, I've been thinking about this, and there's no way the Hermit wagon, regardless of his alignment, could have 180'ed like that without at least 1 scum on it.

Rishi revoted Alabaska after staying on just long enough to not be associated with the main flood off. As such, I could get behind a Rishi wagon as well.

This makes no sense. If any scum "derailed" The Hermit wagon Claus and Alabaska were the ones to jump ship well before Rishi did.

[shaft.ed]

Rereading, it's still my opinion that it is the town's repsonsibility to kill Alabaska ASAP, so my vote stays where it is. There's no sense in entrusting to night-actions something we have the ability to do in the open.

Are you concerned that his lynch would be easily explained by the mafia? Actually would the mafia really be all that happy with lynching Alabaska today...have to think about that. Seems they'd take a lot more comfort in removing a threatening role than in removing a life from Alabaska.

[shaft.ed]

Just wanted to let everyone know I'm keeping up with the thread. I'll get a reread in before deadline. The ease of the Pug wagon gives me a bit of concern. I will likely look specifically at voters on said wagon in the near future.

Don't like players (ie Alabaska) saying "I'll make a case tommorow." We have a vig in the game. He is currently slated to take a life off of you tonight. Don't you think that might be better used on this target of yours if you are town? Have a feeling your "derailing the lynch" worry is made up.

[shaft.ed]

Well, you don't seem to be doing much to stay alive, that's what I really mean. You're at Lynch -1 and doing nothing to save yourself. If I was in your place, I'd be trying to find someone else for people to vote for. I'd be fighting back. You're just kind of...sitting there.

Indifference is neither a scum or town tell.

Shafted- why are you worried at the speed of the Pug wagon when you weren't, as far as I remember, worried about the speed of any other wagons?

I'm not worried about the speed I'm worried about the ease. Scum should have a partner saying "wait guys what about X." Unless the player about to get lynched did something overtly scummy, it is not in there best interests to just sit back and take it, especially with the momentum Alabaska had previous to Pug. There really hasn't been much annunciation of a case. And if you are going the deadline route, I'd imagine more posts along the lines of "in order to avoid a no lych." I'm just getting a mislynch vibe from the Pug wagon.

[shaft.ed]

Why is Cyberbob a better lynch than Pug?

I'd like to know why, too - he hasn't said a word about me since laying it on.

Well, he's actively ignoring me now. I guess we'll never find out. That vote has been on you since fairly early in the game. He didn't give much of a justification at the time and hasn't followed up with any suspicion. Also, since I asked the question, he has posted and has not even addressed the question, as if it didn't exist.

O jeez, I didn't even notice that addressed to me. It's just a remnant vote. I don't unvote if there is no need. I really am neutral on CyberBob ATM. Doing at the very least a re-skim and will hopefully have some new insights.

[shaft.ed]

Note to Claus. If you absorb the Jailkeep ability in the night and the jailkeeper ends up dead, I think it may be best if you don't tell anyone that you received the power.

[shaft.ed]

Yeah my vote was random.

Also, if I die, is my alignment revealed? I believe so. So a delayed kill late game may be a good idea.

Missed this first time around. What were you getting at here?

[shaft.ed]

I'm hovering between Twomz and Alabaska. I await their upcoming posts with great anticipation.

FoS: Twomz and Alabaska J

CyberBob, what happened to this. You very quickly drop suspicion derived from this incident of both players.


@Twomz, Would you describe you meta as 1) Jokey as town, 2) Jokey as scum or 3) Jokey regardless of alignment?

[shaft.ed]

Inventor should consider gifting players with no other night-action (double-lifer, double-voter), but how much you trust any given player should also factor into the bargain (especially when using the OSNKI)

I seriously don't get this. It's actually quite detrimental to have the inventor gift players who normally wouldn't have a night target because it muddies what would normall be 100% clear night targeting information from watchers and trackers. Remember this one if Winter or Alabaska come up as scum.

[shaft.ed]

I think No Lynch should be used unless we have a good candidate for a lynch, if only because it allows everyone to generate more of a record of who is using their powers for good and who is using them for evil. I would prefer a lynch, however, if only because in the process of chasing it we will generate more discussion.

Where the hell is this coming from Hermit?

My support of this wagon has shifted from null to interested.

armlx this was clearly a major point of discussion. Why are accusing Hermit of pulling it out of the blue?

[shaft.ed]

Pug hasn't contributed a whole lot. I'm also concerned about how freely he asked for advice on how to use his night action. Sounds like, "Hey guys, what would be the most townie thing for me to do?"

Vote: Pug89

Now that I've got your attention, any thoughts on recent goings-on?

This actually was a rather reliable town tell in my previous small town experience.

[shaft.ed]

Pug hasn't contributed a whole lot. I'm also concerned about how freely he asked for advice on how to use his night action. Sounds like, "Hey guys, what would be the most townie thing for me to do?"

Or I don't want to squander my abilities since they are only one-shots and I wanted other opinions. I haven't made a decision yet. I will keep the suggestions in mind but I'm ultimately going to make my own decision. I feel this is an extremely weak excuse. I don't like it that you are discouraging discussion of night actions. Obviously the final decision shouldn't be posted in thread, but discussion could help the town.

Vote: TheHermit

I am having a very, very hard time reading Claus. Are all PR roles like this? Right now I'm just hoping he's not scum, because I don't know how I'm going to catch him if he is.

This is a very good point, but we still have his votes and any night actions he may absorb later in the game.[/b]

I don't like this post. Not sure why, though.

Pug voted for almost the exact reasons you gave.

Asking for questions about your night choice is NOT scummy. That post seems like scum trying to start a lurker wagon for very bad reasons IMO.

unvote, vote: TheHermit.

What's not to like?

[shaft.ed]

This actually was a rather reliable town tell in my previous small town experience.

Link plz? Or was it IRC?

Heroes smalltown. Both YvonneSeer and Oman asked for advice on who they should be targeting, if I recall correctly. Oman was town and got lynched partially for saying such. Yvonne was town and received some pressure as well.

[shaft.ed]

armlx this was clearly a major point of discussion. Why are accusing Hermit of pulling it out of the blue?

He wasn't, but given his previous statements on the topic I felt it was a 180 just to concur with the majority.

I thought his explanation was rather thorough (ie he was more attacking the

random

No Lynch vote, he was not endorsing or pushing for a No Lynch, and there were further arguments for the No Lynch option).

[shaft.ed]

unvote, FoS: TheHermit, vote: W!nt3r

His play seems like he's actively lurking and his last post wasn't really to my liking. Unfounded arguments? Everyone has posted reasons. I understand where he is coming as a double voter, but he seems to be too cautious. I would suggest FoSing the people you would vote for instead of voting for them because of your ability if you are not comfortable slapping on votes, but just because you need to be careful about your voting doesn't mean you have to hide in the shadows and only contribute when some rock hard evidence that someone is scum has been magically produced. His play, overall, seems fairly scummy to me, and more so than TheHermit's at this point.

Why did you back down from your Hermit vote so quickly? Too much pressure?

[shaft.ed]

Alabaska's alignment is something we should determine... but if he is town, what is the point in destroying his endgame power? Same goes with Winter. Both roles would be awesome if they were town and ridiculously bad endgame if they were scum. And unlike other roles in the game, they have no ability to "check" to make sure they're not lying or faking.

And as long as alabaska is around, shaft.ed has a good place to hide (although, the point is moot of shaft.ed is scum... /shrug).

I don't really like this. Note possibility of Twomz and Alabaska being aligned. (Yes Rishi I know Open 44)

[shaft.ed]

Heroes smalltown. Both YvonneSeer and Oman asked for advice on who they should be targeting, if I recall correctly. Oman was town and got lynched partially for saying such. Yvonne was town and received some pressure as well.

Fair nuff.

I thought his explanation was rather thorough (ie he was more attacking the random No Lynch vote, he was not endorsing or pushing for a No Lynch, and there were further arguments for the No Lynch option).

Clearly we have opposing views of the situation.

Again, 1 large post > many medium ones. Don't be BM.

I'm really sorry about this but I'm short on time and this is the best way to get all my points down. Also almost none of these are related to one another.

[shaft.ed]

OK did a full reread.

During the reread I was not liking Twomz the most. Then I meta'd him. He does seem to contribute heavier as scum than town. I do get a feeling he may be linked to Alabaska given a couple interactions, but I don't think he's all that lynch worthy ATM.

Alabaska was rubbing me wrong most of the day. I actually found his weird Mayhem reaction to be rather town indicative, though that could be a too scummy fallacy. I would not mind an Alabaska lynch.

Rishi has been floating by pretty much unnoticed all day. He jumps onto the Pug wagon early, with reasons that could be applied to quite a few players in this game. Do not like Rishis. I would not mind a Rishi lynch.

Mayhem. Winter did not impress me much one way or another. Mayhem came in rather strong and pushed hard on Pug. While I do think some points of his case have merit (hell I think I made a couple of them myself) his drive is rather interesting to me. Also pushing out a Cop/Doc role on day 1 would be a huge score for scum. I'm a bit worried about Mayhem, though I don't know if I'd be willing to lynch him today, though would support it if given the choice between him and the leading contender for a lynch Pug.

Pug. I have made quite a few points against Pug myself. I do feel his play is rather lackluster, but I'm not quite sure why he's been singled out. I also think his role could give quite a bit of information to the town tonight regardless of alignment. He has a Cop ability, if he's scum will he send that over to a scummate? Will he send it to the kill target or someone that is safe? I personally think it would be in our best interest to test him tonight and reconsider him tommorow. I thus do not support a Pug lynch. As I have said earlier his wagon has been much to simple with very little resistance.

I'm not getting a read either way on iamausernmane, Cyberbob or The Hermit. A couple things earlier in the day stuck out on CyberBob, but besides that I don't really recall much of anything significant either way. Of the three I'd consider a deadline Cyberbob lynch but do not see great reasons for it.

Claus is at the top of my town list for now. He seems to be putting in more effort than needed if scum given his PR.

Nab and armlx are two that I'm worried about but am getting a leaning town read on. They've both been active and contributing. Their cases are rather solid for the most part. armlx's vote for Pug out of desire to avoid a No Lynch is sensible.

Anyway I'm left with a bit of a conundrum. The people I'm suspicious of have few or no votes on them. If Alabaska were lynched we'd get no alignment reveal, and the leading wagon is one I'm not all that fond of.

Anyway for now

unvote, vote: Alabaska J

I'd most like to see a Rishi lynch but don't have time to put a case together at the moment.

[shaft.ed]

I'm thinking regardless of Pug's alignment it would be in the town's best interest to use his one shot investigation tonight.

Why give up a free confirmed innocent? If he doesn't go along with it he's surely scum and we lynch him tommorow.

Mayhem, my defense of him is that I feel other people have behaved similarly, and as I stated above, I think it's a waste to remove the 1-shot cop from the game. ANd I don't care if you're pushy, you just seem tunneled.

[shaft.ed]

we need some vote moving NOW.

No we need a decent case for someone to vote on (which oddly enough I'm too busy to provide at the moment).

[shaft.ed]

Shafted, Twomz?

Ive already stated I don't like Twomz play. Have you meta'd him yet however? He seems to do this as town and is actually participatory as scum. I'd take him over a No Lynch, but he's not my first choice.

Did you reread Rishi?

[shaft.ed]

mfos Shafted

Hate Metas

sorry Clous I very much appreciate a good meta. That's how I won Open 44 btw.

[shaft.ed]

mfos Shafted

Hate Metas

sorry Clous I very much appreciate a good meta. That's how I won Open 44 btw.

You won Open 44 because TylerJ was a complete idiot.

Yeah but before that step, I was not sure if you or aoiqwe were Dasq's partner. I made the decision based almost purely on a solid meta analysis of aioqwe.

[shaft.ed]

So, shaft.ed, how is my play here different than in Open 44 or Space Monkey Mafia? (And I was town in both of those.)

You make a good point here. I often meta things that stand out. Your play doesn't stand out so I didn't think about meta, but given my experience with you, you are playing rather like what I know if your pro-town meta. Now I just have to read up on your scum side. But for the time being, I'll down grade my suspicion of you.

Also you might want to read some other games I've played as scum. I've only done that subliminal thing once, but it happened to be to you. My CyberBob vote is very normal for me. I do not unvote unless there is a bandwagon forming that I do not like, or there is someone I would like to pressure with my vote. This games been rather low on signal for scumhunting thus far.

I ask anyone pushing the Pug lynch why they want to throw away a possible confirmed innocent, or better yet a shot at a guilty player.

[shaft.ed]

'Kay, no really compelling arguements have emerged to chage my mind. I believe we can live without a confirmed innocent if we have to and I dislike making lynch choces based on role anyway.

As has been pointed out that same exact argument can be pointed at the Alabaska wagon.

[shaft.ed]

I see the points against my Pug argument. Less steadfast in maintaining his survival, but I still think we can get a good amount of information from the investigation wherever it goes (as long as the target and investigator live though).

Things to do today:
Re-read my unreadables (CyberBob, iamusername, TheHermit)
meta Rishiscum-Rishi if you could help me out with some links to where you were scum I'd appreciate it.

[shaft.ed]

Sorry I can't be more helpful.

You really need to be scum more. How else can I catch you if you're always town

[shaft.ed]

unvote, vote: Pug

pending my NabNab case just in case it doesn't make it in time.

What the hell? You're constantly talking about this "NabNab case" yet in your previous post you talk about other suspects and now you're dropping a "just in case" vote down? What are you getting at?

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: Sorry "other suspects" may have been a bit of an overstatement in the above post.

[shaft.ed]

NOOOO DON'T LYNCH ME oh well hehe i'm town but whatever. I have one more life, although is would be BETTER if i was investigated so my ability could actually be PUT TO USE. although it's me or pug so i guess it isn't happeneing either way.

You can't exactly be investigated with Pug dead.

OK it looks like we're getting an Alabaska or Pug lynch today.

I wanted to point out I finished with the Rishi meta and I retract my earlier claim that I think he is playing scummy.

Bob's play towards Alabaska in the last page was quite interesting. Also I think I'll be around towards deadline. If noone is moving votes I will reluctantly hammer Pug.

[shaft.ed]

And Alabaska where is the rest of you're NabNab case? You've been talking about it for days.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: Nevermind I just read the concussion thread.

[shaft.ed]

Man I'm not going to have a fun day explaining myself. Yes we need to claim. As suggested yesterday popcorn claim would be best.

If you trust my dice:

Original Roll String: 1d10

1 10-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

[shaft.ed]

That's Claus going first. He then roles for next person in the chain to claim.

[shaft.ed]

Also it may be slow and painful, but I suggest not posting anything of import until the claims are completed.

[shaft.ed]

It'd probably go a bit quicker if you left out the players that don't have night actions.

1. armlx
2. Cyberbob
3. Rishi
4. NabakovNabakov
5. iamausername
6. shaft.ed

Original Roll String: 1d6 (STATIC)

1 6-Sided Dice: (4) = 4

That's a good point. Unless they'd like to claim the kill

[shaft.ed]

I hid at Alabaska's place.

Original Roll String: 1d4

1 4-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

[shaft.ed]

That's Rishi

1. armlx
2. Cyberbob
3. Rishi
4. iamausername

[shaft.ed]

Or was I supposed to do it randomly?

Yes Dice please.

or to steal your fun away

Original Roll String: 1d2

1 2-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

[shaft.ed]

woops too few sides

Original Roll String: 1d3

1 3-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

[shaft.ed]

Haha, NM someone really wants CyberBob to go next.

[shaft.ed]

OK it appears we are done with the claims.

A few observations:
1-iamusername is not mafia, if he were mafia the kill would have gone through.
2-Players with confirmed night actions are less likely mafia thus armlx and Rishi are less likely mafia.
3-TheHermit was either the mafia's target or is the last remaining mafia member.
4-It's likely that the surviving mafia member made the NK. Watching results are quite difficult to fabricate.

One thing I don't like about the night actions is CyberBob. The tracking of iamusername and armlx are rather poor choices. He says he targets armlx because he figures armlx most likely to make the kill. However armlx was already cleared to use his delayed vig ability. There's no way scum would pass up a town supported vig attempt. Also I really don't see the utility of tracking the JK. It's somewhat possible the JK's target will be confirmable if a night action of some sort was blocked, why waste the Tracking ability when you can target someone that you will not get information on. If CyberBob is scum I think he tracked iamusername in the hopes that he might get the results before the NK was submitted, and fabricated the armlx results as they were clearly posted before his claim. Finally, why not pass your ability over to Claus?

Also regarding point 3 above. Since the mafia had the watcher on their team, it seems most likely that they would have tried to kill the JK in the night as he is the only defensive threat to them. Thus I think it increases the chances that iamusername's target (TheHermit) is scum. However, Stephen King is also a major threat to them, especially with the Doc protect going back into circulation today via NabNab. So I can see the feasibility of scum picking TheHermit to kill over iamusername.

[shaft.ed]

I forgot a couple points on TheHermit.

Obviously he is not the SK since he was jailed last night and a kill went through. Also, he's not a good lynch for today, because regardless of mafia or town he can lead us to the SK tommorow unless Nab or iamusername interfere, which will out them as SK candidates.

[shaft.ed]

I don't see the need to go through all this trouble on the SK. TheHermit investigates Twomz, Nab protects TheHermit then we know who the SK is tommorow. If Nab does not offer protection or iamusername interferes with the investigation/protection chain lynch them.

iamusername will very likely be the mafia kill tonight. If you want a called shot, then have Rishi motivate and IAU can tell us his two in advance thus we can rule them out as mafia should he die in the night.

[shaft.ed]

How does Nab protect Hermit?

He absorbed Pug's abilities. He's now the inventor.

[shaft.ed]

N1, I get role.

If he didn't that's utter ritardation. Nab can you confirm that you didn't pick up the role?

[shaft.ed]

Bah I just read over the role description. I didn't realize he could only pick up one role.

Nab that was a very poor play can you please explain.

[shaft.ed]

Why is that bad? The inventor takes just as much time to work as him absorbing a night ability of the deceased.

The inventor has 1-shot NK immunity which = Doc. Since it should have been expected that King would survive via JK, then we get a free scum using King and the protect on N2.

[shaft.ed]

EBWODP: Deceased = someone who died last night.

So it doesn't work on lynchees?

[shaft.ed]

Why is that bad? The inventor takes just as much time to work as him absorbing a night ability of the deceased.

So the inventor abilities cannot be used in the same night as they are sent? OK I wasn't aware of that.

[shaft.ed]

they can use it the night they get it.

[shaft.ed]

Inventor does work on same night. So that's really not a good explanation?

I'd still like an explanation from Nab.

[shaft.ed]

That does seem like an exploitable loophole.

Once during

this game

, you may target any dead player

But I'd feel bad doing so if it was not the intent.

[shaft.ed]

Bob please comment on this earlier post:

One thing I don't like about the night actions is CyberBob. The tracking of iamusername and armlx are rather poor choices. He says he targets armlx because he figures armlx most likely to make the kill. However armlx was already cleared to use his delayed vig ability. There's no way scum would pass up a town supported vig attempt. Also I really don't see the utility of tracking the JK. It's somewhat possible the JK's target will be confirmable if a night action of some sort was blocked, why waste the Tracking ability when you can target someone that you will not get information on. If CyberBob is scum I think he tracked iamusername in the hopes that he might get the results before the NK was submitted, and fabricated the armlx results as they were clearly posted before his claim. Finally, why not pass your ability over to Claus?

[shaft.ed]

I need to look over your plan again. It seemed a bit elaborate.

Also where is everyone? This is the best part of the game for crying out loud.

[shaft.ed]

Again, this is assuming Twomz has to watch last night. If we doubt this assumption, its a bad idea.

I think this depends heavily on who Twomz partner was. While you and Rishi have both demonstrated a Night action, and are thus not the attempted killer. This cuts both ways, as you would likely want to be cleared and not perform the kills as mafia.

I also don't see TheHermit as likely mafia because they would have worried about him being jailed for protection and thus getting blocked. Of course if they were really concerned about this, why try and NK him? I guess, even if we do suspect TheHermit based on the lack of mafia kill, it's best not to lynch him as the SK HAS to NK him tonight or else he will be outed tommorow.

Our SK isn't night kill immune right?

[shaft.ed]

scumhunting first?

In a smalltown game this is scumhunting.

[shaft.ed]

I did not realize that the player gifted by the inventor may act on the same night (my theoretical timelines from today and

yesterday

show this).

Please point to this statement from yesterday.

[shaft.ed]

I don't how it "auto-catches" the SK.

My bad. Not SK, the mafia. The SK is a trickier matter, but is also majorly screwed over by the plan as it splits the suspect pool in half.

That said, Hermit's result is assured accurate as he is not the SK because he was JK'ed last night, unless the mafia killed their own member.....

Major problem with this is that scum No Killing will totally throw us off. I don't think any choreography is advisable in our current situation.

[shaft.ed]

Shaft.ed's swap back to the "Let Pug live and give out a cop thing" from being on Pug is pretty sketchy IMO, as well as his early insistence he had a place to hide tonight. Lets start there.

Vote Shaft.ed

I agree, my Pug reasoning looks really bad after him flipping, and you forgot the fact that I didn't support a Twomz lynch based solely on his meta (which you interestingly left out). The fact that I had two somewhat weak excuses not to lynch scum is certainly reason to suspect me. I would point out that the Alabaska issue is not what you are making it out to be. I did not insist that I had a place to hide, I was merely pointing out that form my point of view it would be very nice if Alabaska kept his extra life.

[shaft.ed]

I figured that a buddy of his would be able to come to the rescue if he needed someone to confirm. As for the blocked person being informed... that's outguessing the mod as it really comes down to their personal preferences.

Using buddies to support a fake claim is very risky business. Especailly when you are talking about a Jailkeeper. What if someone tracked the buddy, or armlx targeted the buddy? It takes down two scum for the price of one.

[shaft.ed]

Again, the plan is flawed if any one of (me, IAUN, Rishi, Cyber) is mafia. Thats my real issue with it.

Yeah, I think IAUN is cleared as not mafia, you and Rishi are more likely not mafia than average, but What About Bob?

And I do think you are underestimating the confusion that will be brought about with a no-kill.

[shaft.ed]

Mostly the Jailkeeper. You're using the Jailkeeper as a pseudocop. SK or mafia can no-kill and it fingers one of the two locked up players as the scum since it's obvious they wouldn't have been protected. That's really the problem with a choreographed jailkeep.

[shaft.ed]

M4yh3m, Cyber being scum would involve him choosing not to double kill in that scenario. He could have just killed Rishi, claimed a track on someone and been clear.

This is a decent point. Unless the motiviation resolves at deadline after the mafia kill is logged.

[shaft.ed]

He'd have to fake a tracking, wouldn't he...

it was fairly obvious that you had poisoned Alabaska, so he's not off the hook. I'll keep that in mind though.

No basically if he kills the motivator, then noone knows he was motivated. And he doesn't have to fake anything.

[shaft.ed]

Motivator has to resolve before everything else, otherwise there is no way to get the person to send in another choice for their second shot.

Basically what I'm saying is

Scenario 1
Step 1) Mod waits for ALL actions to come in
Step 2) Sends out Motivation notice
Step 3) Motivation choice made and applied

Scenario 2
Step 1) Mod receives motivation notice and passes it on immediately
Step 2) Motivatee makes choices concious of having two abilities
Step 3) Mod waits for all actions to come in and resolves the night phase


CyberBob could you clarify which of the above seemed to happen?

[shaft.ed]

Right.

So you're saying, any intelligent scum would kill Rishi to stop him claiming, use the other kill to kill whoever and the claim to track someone like you, whose actions were easy to guess?

I get it. I'm not happy with Cyberbob (bad vibes) but I'll

Unvote, Vote: NabkovNabkov

for attacking me and pushing a different lynch while Pug was going down.

No you still don't get it. Mafia can't get two kills from motivation, but they can kill and use normal abilities. So if Cyberbob was scum and knew he was motivated he could easily kill the motivator and then Track as normal.

[shaft.ed]

armlx to answer your jailkeeper question:

Jailkeeper
Hider
Motivate
NK Immune
Killings
All Other
Doc
Forensic Investigator

[shaft.ed]

Why can't mafia get 2 kill from motivation?

That just seems wrong because the motivator allows for an extra use of ones "ability." If mafia do get two kills out of it, then I believe Bob to be town.

[shaft.ed]

armlx #1 is yes.

[shaft.ed]

NOTE: megatron/iamausername is the jailer and I can see scum trying to form a case on the jailer in any way possible and therefore exaggerating mistakes.

Do you feel Claus had genuine motives for his Megatron push?

I agree with much of Alabaska's assessment.

Rereading, it's still my opinion that it is the town's repsonsibility to kill Alabaska ASAP, so my vote stays where it is. There's no sense in entrusting to night-actions something we have the ability to do in the open.

Using the lynch took priority over having armlx use his poison?

In an emergency situation, I would likely go to Pug. Plain-sight lurking, opportunistic, L-2, OMGUS vote on TheHermit, yadda yadda yadda.

This seems like a decent enough laundry list to vote for someone. Why do you have an existing case on Pug, but "never get around" to making one on Alabaska, yet still land your vote on him?

[shaft.ed]

Mayhem, IAUN is very unlikely mafia because he caused the No Kill last night (unless mafia just missed the deadline I guess, but it was a REALLY long night deadline).

Also in regards to Twomz's statement towards me, I do agree it looks effusive. But if I recall correctly this is after I had said Twomz's play fit his town meta and not his scum meta. I'm pretty sure he was trying to buddy up to me with that comment. Might also have been trying to protect Alabaska.

[shaft.ed]

Since Hermit was jailblocked, does that make him suspect number one?

While your point is valid, TheHermit should be of no lynching concern to the town. He is essentially dead as the SK must kill him tonight or be outed tommorow. Since we know TheHermit is not the SK as he was jailed and the SK's kill went through, we don't have to worry too much about faked results.

That said, jailing him again may not be a terrible idea, Nab can pick up Pug's ability, then the autocatching of the SK can go through on Night 3 instead. And if there is in fact no mafia kill for the second consecutive night it's pretty good evidence that TheHermit is mafia. Downside is that we choreograph the Jailkeep, lose the investigative power of jailing someone else (pretty big deal with one of each scum left), and lose the threat of protection on all other players.

I was also thinking about Rishi. I think it quite unlikely that he is mafia. The ideal play for a Motivator/Watcher scumteam is for the motivator to target the Watcher (highly plausible) and then for the Watcher to kill a player having the Motivator claimed to target them. This only breaks down if you get caught by the Tracker, but killing the Tracker solves that problem rather easily. Also scum motivating an investigative role like a Tracker is much less likely than a protective role like a JailKeep IMHO.

[shaft.ed]

I agree with IAUN that the statement cuts both ways. If they counted on him being jailed it's unlikely they'd have used him to kill. On the other hand that was before one of their mates got lynched and they were stuck with a Watcher who would have to fakeclaim or a player with no night action making the kill. The latter is certainly more attractive.

Claus do you agree with this assessment?

While your point is valid, TheHermit should be of no lynching concern to the town. He is essentially dead as the SK must kill him tonight or be outed tommorow. Since we know TheHermit is not the SK as he was jailed and the SK's kill went through, we don't have to worry too much about faked results.

[shaft.ed]

OK before I get into pure scumhunting I wanted one more post where I run down mathematical and night action based reasons for excluding (or leaning less intensely on ) certain players today.

will not lynch:

TheHermit/TSPN

-He is dead tonight without protection. If IAUN wants to mess with the SK by using his Jailkeep that's fine by me, but I see no reason for the town to pursue his lynch at this point as TheHermit's death is assured tonight and we'd be clearly wasting a lynch if we use it on TheHermit/TSPN.

should not lynch:

Rishi

-Given Rishi's night action is confirmed he clearly was not the mafia "killer" last night. This gives him ~1/3rd less chance of being scum than any other player (correct my math if wrong). Also as stated above a Rishi/Twomz scumpair targeting the Tracker is really not an ideal situation. I think of the confirmed night action players he is most likely not mafia.

iamusername

-Unless mafia are playing shenanigans with their night kills, iamusername is not mafia. Since, he had no way of predicting Twomz would turn up dead, it would be very unlikely IAUN would no-kill, because doing such only proves him to not be mafia if Twomz turns up dead. Thus I find it only possible that IAUN is mafia if the kill was somehow not submitted. This is highly unlikely as IAUN was tracked by CyberBob to his night choice. As such IAUN is 50% less likely than any other player to be scum, and I don't think a good lynch.

low probability lynch:

armlx

-armlx has a confirmed night action. Thus he is ~1/3rd less likely to be scum than an "average" player. However, him being a vig, I cannot see armlxscum not using his night action. Thus I weigh this less than Rishi's confirmed night action. However, I do not think an armlx lynch should be considered today.

OK so who should we be considering. Let's look back quickly at the lynching vote count:

Pug89 - 7 (M4yhem, Rishi, Twomz, Claus, Alabaska J, armlx)
Alabaska J - 5 (NabakovNabakovob, shafted, iamausername, Pug89, Cyberbob)

Not Voting: TheHermit

We see Twomz was bus'ing. I don't think Mayhem would be double bus'ing his partner, so I don't suspect him for mafia at this juncture. Claus has been fairly pro-town thus far and I do not suspect at this juncture. I'm not a fan of Alabaska, and it is possible he went for a bus with Twomz since his only lynch was the only other viable option. Rishi and armlx are a part of the less likely group. So that leaves only Alabaska amongst the Pug voters.

On the other wagon there is me, Nab and CyberBob. I've already admitted there are a list of examples where I have defended both dead scum. I completely understand that I am a viable lynch today from an outside viewpoint. I've already previously stated that I don't like CyberBob's night actions. Between a Tracker and a Watcher it is more likely that the Tracker would make the NK, since he can fake claim an investigation as long as he doesn't have to claim first. I'm really not liking his tracking of armlx, as it was posted for the world to see, and his target was advertised before the night even began. I'm also not liking Nab's excuse for not picking up Pug's role last night. It seems after the public diminishment of the Inventor's utility, Nab had an excuse not to pick up the role, and thus the watcher would not have to fakeclaim. However, many players made the same mistake so I'm not sure this holds.

Anyway I think the lynch today should be between me, Alabaska, NabNab and CyberBob. I'm not saying we should only focus on these players, but I think this is where we should end up at days end.

[shaft.ed]

The Second.

I understand that, but at this point in the game, we have a much better chance of catching the other mafia member.

CyberBob, I'm not saying you're scummy because you could parrot already claimed targets. In fact both of your tracking results were on people who claimed after you. I'm simply pointing out that it's much harder to fake a watching claim than a tracking claim, which is relevant. It's also much harder to fake a watching claim than a hiding claim, so you can point that line back to me if you like.

Also the mafia NK would not be in the "form" of poisoning. If armlx was mafia, the poisoning kill is on top of their regular night kill.

And I'm not reaching anywhere on TheHermit. My analysis is simply that regardless of TheHermit's alignment, the SK MUST kill him tonight. So the town does not have to waste time or a lynch deciding if he was the target or the attempted perpetrator or the mafia's NK attempt. The only assumption I make regarding the scum actually having submitted a NK is that iamusername is town. Since he submitted an action, I think it's reasonable to assume that if he were mafia then there would have been a NK submission.

[shaft.ed]

Why? If TheHermit had been killed by the SK when he was supposed to be protecting him there's no way he would have survived today. I think it far more likely that if he was mafia there wouldn't have been a submission.

I thought you tracked IAUN to TheHermit last night.

[shaft.ed]

I totally missed the part where we all agreed that I MUST PROTECT THEHERMIT N1 OR DIE. I'm so glad I decided to protect him anyway.

I'm pretty sure it was raised at some point.

Don't misunderstand me - all I'm saying is that your protecting TheHermit is a nulltell, nothing more.

It means he's not mafia. That's all I'm trying to say.

Claus, re:flip-flop. Yes I totally did that. I just felt since he was an Inventor it wasn't really his role. We could pass it to someone pro-town. I also felt Alabaska a good alternative. However, I do expect about a 50-60% chance of my lynch based on my day 1 play.

So Alabaska, now I've gone from SK to mafia that quick? Nice hurried vote.

FYI, I likely won't get on much being the weekend.

[shaft.ed]

I totally missed the part where we all agreed that I MUST PROTECT THEHERMIT N1 OR DIE. I'm so glad I decided to protect him anyway.

I'm pretty sure it was raised at some point.

Don't misunderstand me - all I'm saying is that your protecting TheHermit is a nulltell, nothing more.

It means he's not mafia. That's all I'm trying to say.

Claus, re:flip-flop. Yes I totally did that. I just felt since he was an Inventor it wasn't really his role. We could pass it to someone pro-town. I also felt Alabaska a good alternative. However, I do expect about a 50-60% chance of my lynch based on my day 1 play.

So Alabaska, now I've gone from SK to mafia that quick? Nice hurried vote.

FYI, I likely won't get on much being the weekend.

Do you believe it is anti-town to vote for the SK?

So I'm the SK because I defended Pug for role based reasons? Your vote in response to Claus' point does not match you believing me to be she SK.

[shaft.ed]

Yes but you stated you were "voting for the SK" after you voted because Claus provided evidence of mafia. You seem to be chronologically challenged here.

[shaft.ed]

Here's what I am calling.

NabNab-SK

shaft.ed-Mafia

Glory upon me when I am proven

correct

utterly wrong.

Fixed

I'm not mafia, and if Nab is scum he's most likely mafia and not SK.

[shaft.ed]

It seems to me the mafia is the best target for a lynch today, since the SK can be used by the town as a directed kill on a player that is 50% likely to be mafia. We also have more evidence to go on for a mafia lynch. However, lynching the SK would certainly be a nice thing to do.

[shaft.ed]

It seems to me the mafia is the best target for a lynch today, since the SK

can be used by the town as a directed kill on a player that is 50% likely to be mafia.

what

That entire post screams "hay guys lets lynch the mafia but not the SK" with a quick "oh the SK would be good too" thrown in at the end.

Vote: shaft.ed

Prove my math wrong and see if pointing that finger still makes sense.

[shaft.ed]

It's not the maths I'm worried about, it's that you're trying so hard to direct attention away from the SK and onto the mafia. The bolded part was more of an indication of the point where my jaw fell open - that you could think to try and suggest we control the SK is laughable.

How is the SK not controlled? Please make a list of what options the SK has for tonight?

[shaft.ed]

Everyone left alive except for themselves.

Also, thanks for proving my point about directing attention away from lynching the SK by ignoring it.

You're utterly wrong. The SK has two options tonight.

1) Kill TSPN/TheHermit.
2) Hope to God TSPN/TheHermit is Jailed and kill someone else for recreational purposes.

I'm focusing less on the SK because he is of less concern since he's screwed for the time being, and there is far more evidence to go on in hunting for mafia.

[shaft.ed]

How do you distinguish between SK-tells and mafia-tells?

Mafia have scumbuddies and they cannot use their night ability if they killed. SK's are generally very interested in self preservation.

Also, stop giving them (assuming you aren't the SK for a second) advice.

Yes it's never been pointed out that the Stephen King role can identify the Serial Killer tonight [/sarcasm]. Are you paying attention?

[shaft.ed]

How do you distinguish between SK-tells and mafia-tells?

Mafia have scumbuddies and they cannot use their night ability if they killed. SK's are generally very interested in self preservation.

Oh, I knew that. I was talking about this point in the game, where we essentially have two SKs on our hands.

Yes but one of the "SK's" had two scumbuddies on Day 1 and cannot perform a NK and night action simultaneously.

Claus I know it's tough but a little more specificity please.

Also I should be busy until later in the afternoon. If someone did feel the need to lynch me, please let me get up a post with my feelings on the players.

[shaft.ed]

Just as a note, if we want to lynch Shaft.ed, it may be better for us to say he should hide behind another player tonight (to be determined by them being the 2nd or 3rd best lynch) and for me to vig that player. 3 effective lynches is always nice.

I really don't like how armlx is again proposing a way for the town to sanction his use of the his vig ability. What happened to your tracking plan armlx?

[shaft.ed]

Fos: Shaft.ed

* - Linking scumbuddy;
* - ****** *******
* - ****** *******
* - ****** *******

Who did I link to whom?

[shaft.ed]

I really don't like how armlx is again proposing a way for the town to sanction his use of the his vig ability. What happened to your tracking plan armlx?

If I vig the person I was supposed to track, a very similar thing results, and if we can just eliminate 3 suspects today the night actions can be made to work even better tonight. Also, maximizing lynches is a good thing I here, which is what this plan would do. We effectively replace a scum kill with a town lynch.

I see what you're getting at, but I'm really uncomfortable with it since if you are scum you get to 1) survive today's lynch since you have to be alive at night to exacute your plan 2) score a mislynch, 3) kill two people at night with your vig power and 4) possibly perform a NK if you're the SK. This means you get rid of four players if your the SK in a single day/night cycle. That makes me rather uncomfortable.

I'd much rather just get lynched than sign up for this plan.

[shaft.ed]

Wait scratch the SK comment above. It'd be too risky for armlx to use his vig and have a possible two other NK's flip. Then he'd have to be the SK. Level of concern downgraded.

[shaft.ed]

armlx see my follow up post.

And I didn't know one could self vig.

I'm thinking about the utility of your plan. It might work actually.

[shaft.ed]

Just to confirm.

Mod, can I self-vig?

It'd be too risky for armlx to use his vig and have a possible two other NK's flip. Then he'd have to be the SK.

How so? And its 3 other NK's, there are still 2 living scum groups.

Well if you didn't realize it, then I guess it doesn't much apply. The quote of mine above should be clarified to ..."too risky for SKarmlx"...

[shaft.ed]

Crap, my math is totally off. Forget that whole line of reasoning, it only works for differentiating mafiaarmlx from town/SKarmlx. Not differentiating town/mafiaarmlx from SKarmlx as I had initially thought.

[shaft.ed]

Cyberbob, could you post your top three serial killer suspects?

[shaft.ed]

Cyberbob shouldn't track armlx; it should be fairly easy to see if he deviates.

Rishi is also a waste as you will be able to confirm him.

I think Cyberbob should track iamausername.

The point isn't to determine if armlx vig'd anyone or not, it's to determine if he is the SK. Obviously if the SK is lynched he shouldn't be tracked.

Also if you guys still want to go forward with the plan may I suggest swapping out Alabaska and NabNab. If Alabaska comes up mafia, then we can resort to a back up plan where NabNab picks up the inventor role in the night and this allows us for more options regarding TSPN finding the SK.

mod: If NabNab were to pick up Alabaska's ability tonight, when he officially obtain the extra life?

[shaft.ed]

The point isn't to determine if armlx vig'd anyone or not, it's to determine if he is the SK. Obviously if the SK is lynched he shouldn't be tracked.

Also if Cyberbob is in fact telling the truth about tracking armlx yesterday, there is no need to retrack since he'd have already outed the SK.

[shaft.ed]

Does anyone have any disaster scenarios for the plan? The only ones I can see leave us in end game 50/50s.

That's what I'm trying to figure out. I am most concerned about Cyberbob suriviving because of his role with so many potential townies being knocked out of the game.

I've been thinking hard about whether the plan is worth going along with, this reminds me quite a bit of the scenario in a game I mod'ed with armlx You Are What You Eat where the town chose maximum carnage thinking one of the players that would die should end up scum and that didn't end well. On the other hand, looking at the situation from a outside perpective, I'm pretty sure I'd be calling for my own lynch at this point. Since I know I'm town, it seems like a better situation for me to at least be able to have a couple of my suspects die at the same time as myself. However, Alabaska is looking a bit more pro-town with his willingness to sacrifice for the sake of the plan, and I'm not sure why Mayhem got thrown into the mix, although he is a candidate for SK.

I would suggest a couple tweaks to the plan.
-I think we are better off Tracking Claus than Jailing him. This will give us a minumum of two trackers (or one tracker and a caught SK) going into the next day, with a possibility of three. Also on the outside chance that Claus is scum, he won't have an ability that he can use to his advantage. It also makes a tracking result that Cyberbob cannot lie about.
-I don't think double jailing is as useful as double Tracking. As much as I don't trust Cyberbob, the amount of information we will garner if a Kill is missing and two people are jailed will be very minimal as there are so many scenarios that would explain it 1) overlapping target 2) one group decided to No Kill 3) one player was jailed 4) the other player was jailed. Tracking results (real or faked) give us more information to run with than jailkeeps.
-I also like the idea of allowing NabNab into the night phase simply from a role related perspective, as he can absorb the Doc powers of the Inventor and creat a WIFOM situation for the SK whereby if he tries to kill TSPN and TSPN is jailed NabNab is then available to Doc protect TSPN the next night meaning the SK is outed. However, if he tries to kill NabNab and TSPN is not jailed he is outed tommorow. Note that this situation breaks down if NabNab is the SK, but I find him more likely mafia than SK if scum. Also not sure if we will have enough players alive for this to matter.
-Finally, I think we should have a back up plan if we lynch scum. I think we might be able to come up with a better scenario if we're only looking for a single scum after the lynch.

[shaft.ed]

Your ideas all fair if Cyber just dies tonight.

That's a good point. Though I'm not really opposed to that happening.

Do you still think Nab is the right jailing target. I'd prefer to leave him "open" (ie at IAUN's discretion) to create the SK WIFOM situation I described above.

[shaft.ed]

As for Cyberbob's results, why would he lie if he was mafia? He wants us to find the serial killer and if Twomz was sent to do the killing, there wouldn't be any missing results to explain.

Because if he chooses to kill he cannot use his tracking ability, thus he must lie. I've already pointed out that if you have to fake watch or fake track, you're going to chose fake track most of the time.

[shaft.ed]

Meh, this keeps coming back to the "Bob would have killed Rishi if he was motivated scum and lying". He's probably not mafia.

This is not true. Role resolution order is
1) everyone submits first choice
2) the motivatee is notified of being motivated
3) the motivatee submits second choice

[shaft.ed]

Why is that bad when all the kills are directed by us?

Because most of the direction centers on "kill people that aren't necessary for the double Jailing, single tracking plan." Basically armlx, Rishi, IAUN, and Cyberbob cannot be considered for lynchin/vig'ing. On the other hand I've already stated that I would be extremely unlikely to lynch three of these four players today anyway.

[shaft.ed]

Unh. I like that shaft.ed is so up in arms with his suspicions of me when pretty much the only thing that created said suspicion is the fact that I was motivated, and happened to track people that claimed after me. Both things which were out of my control. :rolleyes:

No I have other reasons, I just haven't had a chance to thoroughly give day 1 a thorough reread.

[shaft.ed]

Unh. I like that shaft.ed is so up in arms with his suspicions of me when pretty much the only thing that created said suspicion is the fact that I was motivated, and happened to track people that claimed after me. Both things which were out of my control. :rolleyes:

No I have other reasons, I just haven't had a chance to thoroughly give day 1 a thorough reread.

Please do so, because I'm getting tired of the only thing thrown at me being something I had no control over.

Point taken.

But you did have control over tracking armlx. Just as NabNab had control over not picking up the Pug's ability.

[shaft.ed]

Why does shaft.ed still have votes on him, and the two people we are choosing from to lynch each only have one? I feel a lack of communication here.

Those are just sitting votes. It seems people are much more concerned about "the plan" than "the game." I'm just as guilty as anybody of this. Also if we are going forward with "the plan" I suggest anyone scheduled to die ought to be getting as much scumhunting in as possible before the day ends.

[shaft.ed]

OK let me run the numbers then. Lynch Mayhem armlx vig's me and Alabaska so other living players during the night phase are:

Rishi-Motivates IAUN (if IAUN survives confirmed SK or town, as long as two scum kills occur)
Cyberbob-Tracks IAUN? Maybe track NabNab here?
armlx-vig's Alabaska (confirmed SK or town, unless a kill is missing, as long as two scum kills occur)
IAUN-Jails Claus and NabNab (Claus can confirm he was targeted; if Cyberbob lives and is not mafia confirmed Town)
Claus-Jailed (if TSPN lives is SK candidate with NabNab)
TSPN-Should be killed by SK
NabNab-Jailed no information (if TSPN lives is SK candidate with NabNab)

While this adds a lot of information I don't think it "wins the game"

Main problem is if fewer than two kills are logged we have learned a whole lot of nothing. And since two people are going to be jailed the odds of that happening are rather high especially since it's the only way scum can create confusion at this point.

[shaft.ed]

If TSPN survives we'll learn something.

Yes but will there be enough days left to resolve which of the two is the SK given the number of days left and the carnage that ensued? This part of "the plan" can be worked out without killing of three people.

If Cyberbob survives we'll learn something.

What, that mafia would rather kill the jailkeeper?

[shaft.ed]

Um, yes. We resolve which of the two it is by asking TSPN who killed Twomz.

[shaft.ed]

OK I see now that if TSPN is killed the SK will be whittled down to Cyberbob as long as Cyberbob and IAUN have not lied in their targets N1 or N2. If Cyberbob dies as town it means a mafia that wasn't jailed killed him as the SK can't. Cyberbob as mafia should not die.

Mafia is a bit more difficult of a nut to crack, but we know it's less likely to be Rishi and armlx, and most likely not IAUN just from N1.

I guess my only concern is that if both scum kill townies tommorow night we open with 2-2-1.
-If we lynch the SK we lose.
-If we lynch mafia we move to prisoner's dilemma.

If only one scum kills a townie we open with 3-2-1
-If we lynch SK we lose without a JK protect.
-If we lynch mafia we have a chance to win.

So the question is, do we really need to whittle down the player list so drastically? And what are the realistic odds of two or one townies dying?

[shaft.ed]

There's only one mafia left, shafted.

Jesus Christ. I seriously Fail today.

[shaft.ed]

Shaft.ed has been

scramb

failing a ton these past few pages.

I just want to make sure this thing has all the bugs worked out. I've already realized I'm either going along with the plan or the likely lynch for today.

[shaft.ed]

Mayhem, armlx is incredibly vig happy as town. I think that makes his plan for killing many people less of a tell.

And yes the armlx SK, bob mafia is about the only situation that worries me at this point. So if that's true:

Town opens with:
TSPN dead via armlx kill.
Bob then has to fake a false result on Rishi being the SK or he is lynched for being the SK via process of elimination. (This is something to be prepared for tommorow guys should Bob get a hit).

Town then lynches Rishi or Bob, more likely Rishi if they trust the result. Rishi flips town, we go to night with a prisoners dilemma:
Claus-town (has jailkeep ability)
NabNab-town
armlx-SK
Bob-mafia(armlx knows this)

Actually if the town no lynches I think they could work out if Rishi is town?

[shaft.ed]

Why is it better if we lynch scum and kill a townie, versus lynch a townie and kill scum? Has anyone tried thinking about adjusting the plan in the case that we do hit scum with our lynch?

Only benefit I can see in keeping NabNab around is proven town he can feasibly pick up Alabaska's role Night 3. But the only way he is proven town is if there are two kills tommorow night and he is jailed. This cuts the opposite way in a very dangerous fashion should NabNab be scum.

[shaft.ed]

NN can do a bunch of things as town.

Yes but he will only be able to do them on Night 4 given the current circumstances. At the rate we are planning to kill people off this will have little effect on the game. A scumNab picking up an extra life N3 could be very problematic, and force the town's direction with lynchings and night choices. Something to think about.

[shaft.ed]

No he won't.

[shaft.ed]

1) Jailkeeper

[shaft.ed]

OK this analysis (hopefully better than previous) looks specifically at catching the SK.

Scenario 1, Claus or (Jailed other guy) are SK. TSPN investigates and outs the SK.
Result: SK lynched Day 3

Scenario 2, Claus or (Jailed other guy) are not SK*. TSPN is killed.
---2a, Cyberbob Dies flips town: armlx and IAUN are cleared by Night 1. Claus (Jailed other guy) is cleared by Night 2. Rishi must be SK.
Result: SK lynched Day 3

---2b, Cyberbob Dies flips mafia: one of armlx or IAUN is cleared by Night 1. Claus and (Jailed other guy) is cleared by Night 2. One of Rishi, armlx or IAUN is the SK with higher probability on Rishi.
Result: 33%? odds on lynching SK

---2c, IAUN Dies flips town. (Jailed other guy) is cleared by Night 2 Jailing. Claus can claim being jailed if he picks up the ability (can be demonstrated Night 3)* but is not cleared. Cyberbob can claim on Rishi either:
------Guilty: One of Cyberbob or Rishi is the SK, with possibly greater odds on Rishi as Cyberbob would risk dying before end game with a false claim. (Cyberbob may be mafia faking a result on Rishi, which actually makes 33% odds to lynch SK, but 67% of scum).
Result: 50% odds on lynching SK
------Innocent: In this instance either Cyberbob or Claus is the SK with greater odds on Claus as Cyberbob could push a direct case easier on claiming a guilty on Rishi. (As above Cyberbob could be mafia faking a result making the actual odds 33% of lynch SK, but 67% of scum).
Result: 50% odds on lynching SK

---2d, IAUN dies flips mafia: Cannot trust any of IAUN's jailkeeping except for Night 1 where he was tracked, unfortunately TSPN is already dead. However, Cyberbob as SK or town shouldn't have had reason to lie about his Night 1 claims thus armlx is cleared. Thus if Cyberbob claims:
------Guilty: Rishi is the SK as there are no other antitown factions and thus no reasons to not trust Cyberbob. If he is lying and Rishi flips town he can be lynched next dday.
Result: Lynch SK Day 3.
------Innocent: armlx and Rishi are cleared of being the SK. Thus one of Claus, (Jailed other guy) or Cyberbob must be the SK. If Claus did in fact absorb IAUN's power he can jail both armlx and Rishi after lynching Cyberbob or (Jailed other guy). armlx and Rishi then lynch whoever else is alive going into the next day. If Claus does not jail then lynch Claus. If Claus did not absorb the power, then the town gets two shots at the SK one at 4:1 with two confirmed innocents and one at, 2:1 with one confirmed innocent.
Result: ~50% Lynch SK Day 4, ~50% 33% odds on lynching SK.

[shaft.ed]

OK guys I've given this a bit more thought and it looks like three lynches are on the table:
1-Alabaska (generally strange play Day1 could be either scum)
2-NabNab (don't like his night choice at all, more likely mafia that made the kill)
3-Mayhem (unlikely mafia due to bus'ing, recent lynch avoidance instead of plan inspection feels SK)

So my generally thoughts are, the SK can easily be caught if he is jailed tonight. Thus it is better to attempt lynching the player that is highest likelihood mafia. Also, if the SK is jailed he will be a) caught and b) not able to submit a kill. Thus we are better off having our top SK suspect jailed and not vig'ed.

Therefore filling in the blanks by how I have run down players (maybe you disagree here) lynch should be NabNab, "jailed other guy" should be Mayhem and vig victim should be Alabaska. Let me know if this works out.

Also if we do end up catching the SK via jailing has anyone figured out how we can deal with the monkey wrench of having a live TSPN that is 50% odds on being scum?

Finally, if we do lynch scum, is it still the most viable strategy to have armlx "double vig" tonight?

[shaft.ed]

OK a couple last scenarios I'd like to analyze.

If SK is jailed how do we find the mafia:
If there is 1 NK, day opens with six players. TSPN claims a SK target, it must be truthful because if he lies he is outed as scum. SK is lynched we go to night phase with 4-1. The jailed player is confirmed not mafia if a NK went through. armlx/Rishi/IAUN are confirmed not mafia since the only way they were not actually tracked is if Cyberbob lied, something town would have no reason to do. Thus one of TSPN or Cyberbob must be the remaining mafia member, they can therefore not kill one another. From here the town autowins by jailing TSPN and Cyberbob each night and lynching them the following day(s). If there is no night kill same scenario town autowins.

If we lynch scum is there a benefit in holding back on armlx's vig'ing:
1) We lynch mafia: If our lynch target is mafia then we can trust Cyberbob's tracking as SK would not likely risk faking results and getting lynched. Thus none of armlx, IAUN or TSPN is the remaining SK. If armlx vig's me and Alabaska then the day opens with either:
---1 NK: Claus and Mayhem are alive and confirmed town. One of Rishi/armlx/IAUN/TSPN are alive and confirmed town (likely TSPN will be killed) and Cyberbob is likely to be alive as the only non-confirmed player and thus the most likely SK.
---2 no NK: Same scenario occurs without a NK except one confirmed town player is alive. Again Cyberbob or Rishi have to be the SK. Game won for town.

2) We lynch SK: Basically works out as above. The only way we can't trust Cyberbob's tracking is if he's mafia, and if he's mafia then the other players are cleared anyway. Thus either Cyberbob catches Rishi making a NK (which would be confirmed by IAUN and Claus anyway) or Cyberbob get's lynch clearing the last innocent.


So in conclusion it appears the armlx vig'ing me and Alabaska will only be an issue if both the SK and the mafia are contained within the group of Rishi, armlx, IAUN and Cyberbob. Even here the town has about 50%+ odds of winning.

Actually I think the worst possible scenario may be if we jail the mafia and the SK is left free to roam about. Did I run that scenario yet? Bah...

[shaft.ed]

Mayhem, do you realize you signed up for a smalltown game? This kind of thing can happen in smalltowns.

Also I think I've uncovered the WCS of our plan, I'm not sure I want to share it though because it might not be obvious to the scum parties. I will run the numbers on it and see if I think the odds of it occuring and the odds of town loss in such a circumstance outweigh the other benefits of what we've already discussed.

[shaft.ed]

OK so I've run over the plan numerous times. It seems the most dangerous situation is if Cyberbob was mafia lying about an investigation result that inadverantly clears SKarmlx or SKIAUN last night. While that is possible, even in that situation town has about a 2/3rds shot of lynching scum tommorow if my number are correct.

I'm ready to go ahead with the plan. I would however like NabNab to get back and weigh in on it.

Also Mayhem, while in most situations "scum-hunting" is better than set up discussion, here the town has a very decent chance of auto-winning. It would be much more productive if you were to analyze the plan than to just shout "why isn't anybody scumhuning?"

[shaft.ed]

Anyways, back to where I started.

Unvote, Vote M4yh3m

Shaft.ed hides with Alabaska, etc.

Mayhem over Nab because he's more likely SK? I've already covered why I'm not so keen on keeping Nab around.

[shaft.ed]

Yeah, but NN is RB'ed tonight. I really feel m4yh3m's defense is scummy. If he hadn't exploded with all the stuff he did, I wouldn't be voting him.

More worried about the town having a forced lynch on NabNab if he can't be ruled out as scum over the night phase.

[shaft.ed]

Seems we're still waiting on a couple players to look over the plan.

I'm OK with a Mayhem lynch since he's basically just whined about no one scum hunting, and not provided any analysis of the plan. But as I've stated I'd prefer a Nab lynch since he poses more risk if kept alive, and I think he's got decent odds of mafia.

Also something to note about the plan. I think if SK is lynched you may want to rethink how it works. TSPN is already 50% odds of mafia. Leaving him out in the open and untracked with the SK already gone may not be the best of ideas.

[shaft.ed]

Hey, back, maybe reading.

Is there a decent chance y'all are gonna lynch me today? Should I even bother? (feeling a bit apathetic)

Well it's either you or Mayhem. But if you are town, could you please look over the proposed plan to look for possible holes.

[shaft.ed]

Yeah, but NN is RB'ed tonight. I really feel m4yh3m's defense is scummy. If he hadn't exploded with all the stuff he did, I wouldn't be voting him.

More worried about the town having a forced lynch on NabNab if he can't be ruled out as scum over the night phase.

This.

Please consider this before hammering Mayhem. (though given my great reasoning on Pug yesterday, it's probably best to do the oppositte of what I suggest )

[shaft.ed]

Wow. M4yhem's on tilt.

Yeah if I didn't think Nab and Claus would have something to offer in ways of analysis I'd hammer.

[shaft.ed]

Above post, plus the consideration of whether NN being alive tomorrow FORCES a lynch on him any more then M4yh3m being alive.

I though you said you ran the numbers on Mayhem earlier and the double vote had little effect without scum partners.

[shaft.ed]

5 alive tomorrow. M4yhem is one. Scum can team up and QL, but prob won't. If we don't lynch M4yh3m, we have to hit on a protective role if he is scum to not lose to the double vote.

So you're saying 5 alive, maf/SK lynch goes to night 3 vs 1. Mayhem kills down to 2 v 1 and wins next day. But this only matters if there's a double kill which won't happen if Mayhem is scum because he will be jailed. In fact if there is a double kill either both jailed players are cleared or IAUN is the last mafioso which is incredibly unlikely unless he purposefully planned the JK, which is even more unlikely because it only clears him if Twomz is the dead player (unless there is kill flavor that I missed somewhere in the introduction).

NabNab's ability to pick up an extra life seems like more of a threat to me. And impacts the town negatively regardless of the kill scenarios tonight.

[shaft.ed]

How is he fucked Armlx? Fake tracking will be pretty easy tonight since we all know what the power roles are doing and it's not like the other scum will tell us if he gets it wrong.

If Bob is the SK:
-He has already cleared armlx and IAUN. He must kill TSPN tonight. Rishi will be the only other unjailed player. Thus he has to frame Rishi for killing TSPN. If town lynches Rishi, Bob must be scum. If town lynches Bob, he is dead.

If Bob is the mafia:
-He has already cleared armlx and IAUN. He may kill any of them tonight, more likely to go with one of the "confirmed" players. He can either claim a fake result on Rishi and suffer the same consequences as above, or leave TSPN to take the blame for the kill. If he clears Rishi and TSPN is lynched, Bob is the de facto killer.

Either way scumBob is lynched tommorow or the day after.

[shaft.ed]

Iamusername is the only confirmed no-scum.

You're not SK, neither's the sweatpantsninja but you could both be mafia.

That leaves Claus, Shafted, Alabaska, Nabnab, bob, rishi.

Tomorrow we'll have you, bob, rishi, claus, Iamusername, thesweatpantninja and me (except two of these people might be killed.)

If there's a mafia kill and a sk kill, me 'n whoever else is roleblocked, according to the plan, will be confirmed.

Even so, that's only three confimed as far as I can see.

Unvote, Vote:NabNab

. To get it over with.

With two kills the conformations will be:

Mayhem (town and alive)
Claus (town and alive*could be SK if Rishi is mafia and kills IAUN)
TSPN (not SK)
IAUN (not mafia, town if Cyberbob is dead*as town)
armlx (not mafia if me and Alabaska are dead, town if Cyberbob is dead*as town)
Rishi (unconfirmed)
Cyberbob (unconfirmed)

First off we can conclude TSPN will be dead if there are two kills. Thus the SK and mafia would have to be among IAUN, armlx, Rishi or Cyberbob. Also one of IAUN, armlx, Rishi or Cyberbob would have to be dead if there are two kills. So amongst a pool of three players you will have the two scum.

[shaft.ed]

If Rishi is mafia and made a kill, he's caught, because Claus will know if I jailed him or not, and the only reason I wouldn't is if Rishi doesn't motivate me. If not, Cyberbob is mafia.

This fails however, because if Rishi didn't motivate you, and Claus didn't get jailed then Claus is no longer confirmed and could attempt to submit a kill. The interesting thing will be that both scum will know this happened, so I don't see how mafiaRishi can avoid motivating you there will be too many loose ends. He'd be forced to no kill, just as mafiaarmlx would.

[shaft.ed]

OK so if Nab's the SK I think we need to adjust the plan for maximum potential. Kinda surprised he'd claim as he might have outlasted the plan by pushing for a Mayhem lynch.

Lynch Nab SK down.
I target Mayhem who dies tonight via vig kill (vig kill with mafia kill confirms armlx town).
Jail Alabaska and Claus (mafia kill confirms them as town).
Cyberbob tracks TSPN or Rishi, leave it open so mafia cannot predict.
Rishi's targeting can be confirmed by both IAUN and Claus.
IAUN's targeting can be partially confirmed by Claus, but he is essentially cleared as not mafia from day 1 so it does not matter.

Thus if the mafia do kill, Rishi is cleared, armlx is cleared, Claus is cleared, Alabaska J is cleared. Only Cyberbob or TSPN can be mafia.

It seems most likely we will have a No Kill under such a plan. Is it thus worth going forward with? I'd say yes as the town is likely to waste a lynch on me. It removes scumarmlx the ability to toss in a vig killing to sway the game last minute. Passes Jailing abilities on to Claus in case IAUN the confrimed innocent dies, and gains a confirmed innocent via Cyberbob's investigation.

Also with only one scum left, Cyberbob's innocent tracking results are 100% genuine from here on out. That means he will be creating innocents with his results. Something to think about with who he targets. This also applies to armlx on the following night.

[shaft.ed]

Should I just hammer now, or do we want to make some adjustments to the plan? I'm not sure it's optimised if we're only looking to catch the mafioso.

Please don't we can make the plan better if we know we are taking out the SK.

[shaft.ed]

OK so if Nab's the SK I think we need to adjust the plan for maximum potential. Kinda surprised he'd claim as he might have outlasted the plan by pushing for a Mayhem lynch.

Wouldn't have happened/helped. What are the chances the guy who ranted and raved until the town lynched some other guy manages to kill the guy who will discover he killed the other guy without being blocked by the guy or tracked by the guy or that other guy?

Your hope was for mafia to NK TSPN which they might have considered to create confusion. But yeah the odds were slim.

[shaft.ed]

Unvote

to allow for plan adjusment.

Don't vig me, for christ sake, I'm not mafia! I pushed hard for Pugs lynch despite strong opposition. Vig one of the people who were against lynching Pug- shaft.ed, cyberbob.

Cyberbob's tracking confirms innocents regardless of Cyberbob's alignment. With TSPN around as both the biggest threat to mafia and the most likely mafia candidate, I don't think it's the right time to kill Cyberbob. I'd be OK with switching Alabaska with Mayhem in the above proposal.

[shaft.ed]

If TSPN is the most likely mafia candidate, would it make more sense for me to jail him rather than Alabaska/Mayhem? He can't do anything useful tonight if he's town.

Sure. Sounds good.

I also like the night actions up in the air thing for everyone that isn't me or Shaft.ed. Makes it a lot easier to trap scum.

I think I agree with the No Plan "plan." I'll volunteer for being hider vig'ed if it's what everyone wants. What about hider vig'ing TSPN? I don't see him surviving to be useful. And with 50% odds on being mafia already he's likely to be a big elephant in the room come lynching time tommorow. Only good thing is it forces the mafia's hand if there is a NK tommorow.

[shaft.ed]

OK I'm ready to take one for the team. You'll probably have better luck scum hunting without me any way

[shaft.ed]

No, Plan A:

shaft.ed hides w/Alabaska
armlx vigs Alabaska
Rishi motivates username
username jails M4yhem & Claus
TSPN investigates Twomz
Cyberbob tracks Rishi

Not that it matters since there's no reason for Nab to lie about being SK, but still.

Their point is your more likely SK than Alabaska.

[shaft.ed]

Until I say otherwise though, assume its Alabaska.

I'm a little confused by this want to clear up.

If Nab is SK, I hide with TSPN armlx vig's TSPN. Everyone else does random stuff.
If Nab is mafia, I hide with Mayhem armlx vig's Mayhem. We go on with plan in post 1044.