Mini 2110: I hate Mafia (Day 8)

[Rautherdir]

The vig should claim immediately, use their shot publicly, and then be the day 1 or 2 lynch.

[Rautherdir]

The vig should not necessarily use their shot immediately, but it should be publicly so that they're confirmed to be the vig, and thus town. And thus should get lynched.

[Rautherdir]

Wouldn't having a confirmed town leading us be pretty useful though?
*Got ninja'd

I'd say that depends on who the vig is. Regardless, town's goal is to kill town, and we can confirm one player as town from the beginning.

[Rautherdir]

Also, I'm not the vig. Obviously.

[Rautherdir]

I guess the question is how do we determine who to lynch. The only difference between vanilla town and mime is that the mimes are informed, and want no-lynches to happen. Otherwise our path to a win condition is the same.

[Rautherdir]

@Mod: Can the day-vig self-target?

p-edit
Not self-voting because self-voting doesn't tell anyone anything?

[Rautherdir]

It guarantees the shot happens on town though. At LYLO the mimes will control almost half of the votes, so it might become necessary to use it in that way.

[Rautherdir]

So, change of plans, we'll lynch the vig on LYWIN. We could also have three other players to volunteer to never get lynched as long as a mime isn't killed. I guess I'll be one of them so I can explain how that works later on in the game.

Also, I think I just figured out how to break the setup.

[Rautherdir]

Maybe. I need to think about it. On second thought it probably won't break the setup, but it might make it easier. It might also work better if the don't-lynch players are chosen by a vote instead of volunteering maybe?

p-edit
Because then it's Lynch and Win, instead of Lynch or Lose.

[Rautherdir]

Actually, we should have 6 players (not including the vig) volunteer to not be the lynch for today.

[Rautherdir]

But seriously, we need 4 other people (but not the vig) to volunteer to not get lynched today, and then I'll explain how this will work. I'm assuming Enter volunteered.

[Rautherdir]

But seriously, we need 4 other people (but not the vig) to volunteer to not get lynched today, and then I'll explain how this will work. I'm assuming Enter volunteered.

Yes. I nominate Venmar to also be part of that group.

This will probably work best if we only do self-nominations.

I am leaning towards thinking that the survivor group should be composed of our highest townreads rather than volunteering. I think the benefits of killing our highest TRs later are better suited to this game. I am not opposed to being part of it though.

There's a method to my madness, I'll explain it after people have volunteered.

[Rautherdir]

I did realize another difference between mimes and town. Mimes have to die to win. Town does not.

[Rautherdir]

townies have to die to achieve their win condition though. mimes technically don't have to die either if they can get the game to no-lynch twice.

At the end of the game in a town win, there will be the same number of town and mime, thus at least one town will not have to die. And as long as we make sure we always lynch then mimes will have to die. And by limiting the number of valid lynch options we make it more likely we'll get a lynch.

[Rautherdir]

So, the group is Me, Enter, Venmar and I think Farkran volunteered?
That would leave two more slots to volunteer, and the vig still needs to claim when they show up.

[Rautherdir]

no-lynch becomes more likely over time, for the record. as we lynch more and more town, the mimes will have a larger % of the votes, and will have less and less incentive to vote on town lynches. once its 5v3 and 4v3, the town have to be unanimous amongst each other to get a lynch through, which can be crippled if even one of the mimes makes into a "town circle", otherwise mimes can just immobilize the vote without an all-town consensus to out-vote them.

also there's no reason why everyone shouldn't have a read on me and enter by now.

At 4v3, 3v2, or 2v1 the resolution is to lynch the vig, who is conf-town.

[Rautherdir]

Well, I'm still waiting on two more volunteers to never get lynched before I can reveal my plan.

[Rautherdir]

I didn't notice Hectic volunteering. The group is me, Enter, Venmar, Farkran, Hectic, and DrDolittle. There are now four possibilities. Either 0, 1, 2, or 3 mimes are in the group that volunteered. The game is now divided into three groups, the vig, the group that volunteered, and everyone else.

What's going to happen next, is we're going to ignore what I said earlier about not lynching in that group. The vig is going to shoot someone. Anyone except themselves. And as long as there aren't 2 mimes in that group then town wins.

If the vig shoots town, then the lynch will be in the group the vig shot in. If the vig shoots a mime, then the lynch will be in the group the vig didn't shoot.
On every future day, if the previous day's lynch was on town then you'll lynch in the same group that player was in. If the previous day's lynch was on a mime then you'll lynch in the other group.
Once there are the same number of town and mimes, not including the vig, lynch the vig, and get a town victory.

[Rautherdir]

I didn't notice Hectic volunteering. The group is me, Enter, Venmar, Farkran, Hectic, and DrDolittle. There are now four possibilities. Either 0, 1, 2, or 3 mimes are in the group that volunteered. The game is now divided into three groups, the vig, the group that volunteered, and everyone else.

What's going to happen next, is we're going to ignore what I said earlier about not lynching in that group. The vig is going to shoot someone. Anyone except themselves. And as long as there aren't 2 mimes in that group then town wins.

If the vig shoots town, then the lynch will be in the group the vig shot in. If the vig shoots a mime, then the lynch will be in the group the vig didn't shoot.
On every future day, if the previous day's lynch was on town then you'll lynch in the same group that player was in. If the previous day's lynch was on a mime then you'll lynch in the other group.
Once there are the same number of town and mimes, not including the vig, lynch the vig, and get a town victory.

Even though this goes against my own idea of how vig should be used, I kinda think this idea is alright having crunched the numbers on it. I am curious if there is a way to improve it because it basically just accepts a loss in one scenario which feels lame super early

Well, if we get down to one mime left we could abandon following the strategy strictly.

p-edit:
Yes, that's why I lied about not lynching in that group today. Well, we might not, depends on where the vig shoots.

p-edit2:
Because I haven't really had a chance to answer it yet? But to answer it, I don't really know how to read people yet in this format. That's why I went to solving the game mechanically instead.

[Rautherdir]

I don't actually know what the vig's plan is, but it doesn't contradict lynching the towniest of players.

[Rautherdir]

If the vig's plan is people voting who he shoots, then my plan shouldn't contradict it? It's up to the vig how he decides who to shoot, it only contradicts my plan if he shoots himself.

[Rautherdir]

I have ideas on how to read people, but no real solid format. For example, I think scum are likely to be more particular about who is lynched versus town, who probably will mostly just have people they do not want lynched.

Yeah, that makes sense. If anyone is pushing a particular player to be lynched, I’d definitely be leery of that, especially if it goes against consensus.

I am pushing for the vig to be lynched eventually.
But other then that specific case, yeah that's something to be worried about.

[Rautherdir]

Yeah. The strategy does usually win the moment all mimes are in the no-lynch group though. I am going to develop reads, I just haven't had time to actually read as much as I would want to yet.

[Rautherdir]

I don't actually know what the vig's plan is, but it doesn't contradict lynching the towniest of players.

He wants us to vote, I assume not actual vote for a player to be vigged, so we should probably use heal tags for that to separate the vig vote from the lynch vote. So you aren’t necessarily assuming that mimes aren’t in that volunteer group, I’m guessing? I think that’s probably wise but surely you must have a least a couple of reads by now, right?

To the contrary, I only specified that the group wouldn't be lynched on day 1, so mimes might have joined for town equity. My plan simply doesn't care if mimes joined or not. It's up to the vig to decide which group has less mimes. (And in the event the vig picks a group with all three mimes then we still win, as long as the first person killed is town.)

[Rautherdir]

I mean, if we get to the end of a group and we're like 90% sure the last person is a mime, it won't hurt much to switch groups regardless of the plan.
The plan should get a 75% win rate if followed without deviation. But we don't necessarily have to follow it perfectly.

[Rautherdir]

Well, I guess we don't have to use the vig immediately. Should I vote myself or would that be bad? You know what, I'm just going to let more people vote me. Better VCA that way.

[Rautherdir]

Well, one more person. I'm at L-1, if I counted correctly.

[Rautherdir]

Well, one more person. I'm at L-1, if I counted correctly.

If that's the case, you not voting yourself should confirm you as town.

Or I could be a mime waiting for a partner to hammer so they can gain town equity.

...

Oh right, that wouldn't even work.

[Rautherdir]

But a mime might jump onto me for town equity regardless, so just be careful about that.

By the way, as long as you can figure out who at least one mime is (without killing them) then town wins.

[Rautherdir]

Probably why we have a vig instead of a cop. A cop is far more powerful then a vig in this setup.

[Rautherdir]

(Sorry, just realizing I'm not going to be able to post after getting lynched. Which should have been obvious, I just wasn't expecting to get lynched day 1.)

[Rautherdir]

I mean, I guess? I could get day-vigged.

[Rautherdir]

I mean, there is literally no reason for me to be a mime at L-1 and not hammer myself. That's a thing only town will do this game.

[Rautherdir]

Yep, better to keep Wake alive to be the last lynch of the game

He should also keep his shot for as long as possible

Why?

If it's 5v3 it will also be hella hard to push a lynch on town

Well a possible solution to that is to take someone everyone agrees is town and save them for the second to last lynch. Which might end up being me, except we're getting close to deadline now.

VOTE: Farkran
If we're needing an alternative to me for today's lynch, this could be it.

[Rautherdir]

@Rau Could you explain why lynching using your group system is any better than lynching randomly?
Your group system gives us clear odds and percentages of when we should expect to win, but I don't see how it actually increases our chances of winning, statistically speaking, over random lynching?

Because mimes got to choose if they wanted to volunteer or not.

[Rautherdir]

Well, my strategy failed in the end. Didn't figure in a mime being the last kill in a group, which kind of messes the strategy up a bit.