Mini 579 - The Plagues of Egypt Mafia - Over

[strife220]

Hi all. Will finish a full read-through and post opinions by the end of the weekend

[strife220]

Done D1. Lack of role-reveals makes the game a lot trickier huh...

Regarding the lynch on Guardian - I'm still unsure of his alignment. He obviously played poorly, regardless of whether or not he was telling the truth. The most significant points I noticed that make me confident he was scum were: His role (Jew), his terrible pseudo-cop play, and his self-hammer. However, putting these (significant) things aside, the way he played his game seemed very much like a fumbling pro-town. The way he was apologizing for poor play, his talk of his own lynch and how he was hurting town, his statements at the end of the day about thoughts on other players. His last page of D1 where he talked about Stoofer being his biggest suspect, and listed 3 people as likely town, I find exceptionally interesting. If he knew that his role wasn't going to be revealed upon death, then he made a clever move. However it's unclear if scum understand the mechanics at work here - if he thought his role was going to be revealed, then I'd expect he was a miller. I'm unclear where he got the confidence that the 3 said people were so likely town, which makes me think he was scum...

Oh my, thoughts running in circles again... I still have a lot of catching up to do, but if I were to have subbed in at the beginning of D2, my 1st and 2nd actions would be to figure out why he thought said players were so likely town, and then look deeper into the 'stoofer-as-scum' theory.

Will finish tomorrow

[strife220]

I am going to re-read the whole thread looking for everyone's interactions with Guardian. I suggest everyone else does the same.

Has anyone done this yet?

I have concluded that neither thevampireofdussledorf or hasdgfas are Guardian's scumbuddies based on yesterday's play. I am not confident that I can pick out who

is

his buddy, though.

Stoofer can you qualify this a bit? Where does your confidence here come from? I would have thought that TVoD saying that Guardian is likely a Jester would make you think that they could be scumbuddies. Moreover, at the end of D1, TVoD says "Guardian is definately pro-town."

Not that I'm disagreeing of course, I just find it suspicious when people come to conclusions with such confidence when I don't see the evidence.

[strife220]

Fair enough. I'm unhappy with the assumption that Guardian is scum, but if you're convinced otherwise then your arguments are at least consistent with that opinion.

[strife220]

Done. Most pressing matter to talk about is obviously the claim

My opinions:

Claiming in parts is very sketchy. First "I'm doc," then "I'm a physician," then "my name is Kamazu," then "I protected XX on N0 and YY on n1." This is the best point against his claim.

I'd like someone to elaborate on their suspicion about the name claim - Hur and Stoofer in particular. I have both a point for and against the name claim, and will say so after I hear why you think the name claim is BS.

Thirdly, the role physician fits in entirely too well - I really couldn't imagine a different title for a doctor. This is the best point to support his claim. Unfortunately, given the 'no-reveal' rule, if somebody else did have the title of Physician, it probably isn't in their best interest to say so.

As a side-theory that people may attack me for since it's heavy on speculation, is that scum may get to find out the identity of who they kill. This would explain the perfect job title as well as his eagerness to claim, if N0 kill (forget his name) was the doc.
I believe the theory fits reasonably with flavor, which said everybody was too busy fleeing to notice the guys' role. If scum summoned the animals, they likely didn't have to flee, since they were presumably in control of it.

Just speculation - bash me for it if you wish. I try to type what I'm thinking unless I think it's obviously anti-town.


As to whether or not I believe the claim, I'll wait until I hear why people call BS on "Kamazu"

[strife220]

My own name is Egyptian. However the name Thabit is from Mesopotamia - different ballpark, but same league. I'm not really sure where the name Kamazu comes from - googling it, it doesn't seem to be a name at all.

However it doesn't seem likely to me that scum would have a reason to lie about their name. Presumably they have one, and given the flavor, I doubt there name would be something like 'evil bad guy #1.' So despite the name being slightly out of place, I don't see it as evidence towards his alignment.

[strife220]

Unvote

I'm rethinking my case against lord_hur, and my view or Musher.


Musher, look closely at your PM and report here once more.

Name?
Profession?
Role?

And can you clarify why you gave it in parts previously, Musher?

[strife220]

FYI deadline is in 6 days, so if the general consensus is that Musher's likely the real doc, then we might wanna consider alternatives.

When I re-read, Stoofer came out as the biggest suspect in my eyes. Unfortunately, that's heavily influenced by the fact that I believe the D1 Miller claim.

More unfortunately still, 6 days isn't really enough time to make and discuss a full case from scratch. If we do lynch Musher and he comes up town, I'll be looking at the late-D2 lurkers with suspicion on D3.

[strife220]

I think the point that it came out in pieces is a strike against him, and I think the name origins thing is irrelevant. I believe I already said mine is Egyptian. Stoofer said his was Indian or something, and our only uncovered lynch was Arabian. I wouldn't be surprised if Musher's name was something weird.

I think the accuracy of the claim is too good to be ignored. If there's a doc in the game, it must be a physician. If Musher is scum, then scum must have a lot of information about the game that we don't know.

So I'm fairly confident in the claim and won't be contributing to a lynch today. If we could get an extension deadline, I'd like to take a look at Stoofer's play. If not, I'd go with a no-lynch or reconsider Lord-Hur, who I believe is the only other person with more than 1 vote on him.

[strife220]

Hur is right. I mean, if there is a doc in the came, then physician is the perfect job-title, because that's what they called the people who did the job of doctors:

http://www.egyptologyonline.com/the_physician.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Egyptian_medicine
http://www.schoolshistory.org.uk/ancien ... dicine.htm

The only other title I would imagine for a doctor would be something religion-based. e.g. "spirit healer" or something like that. But given SlySly's job title and my own, both of which lack ties to mythology, I would imagine that 'physician' is far more likely.

You're right SL that scum could have made up the title, but a lack of counter-claim makes me think he's telling the truth. Of course given the 'no-reveal' rules, counter-claiming is risky in and of itself...

So I guess my logic is:
There's a very good chance of there being a doctor in this game (as in most minis).
If there's a doctor, there's a very good chance their title is 'Physician.'
Given that Musher said he was a doctor with the title Physician, I think he's either telling the truth, or our real doc (if we have one) has decided that since there is a no-reveal rule, counter-claiming wouldn't be smart.

The claim fits too well with the flavor of the game. I believe he's telling the truth.

[strife220]

But if you managed to work out that "physician" was the perfect title for Doc, why do you think he couldn't?

[And BTW, physician is an obvious rolename for Doc, so your point is hopeless anyway. You don't have to be the real Doc to come up with that.]

I didn't say he couldn't have thought it up himself. I said if he did, we still likely have another doc in the game who's avoiding counter-claiming because of the no-reveal 'rule.' I think it's more likely that he told the truth.

i first answered with healer because that was basically what i am

When?

However I never picked up on the supposed 'healer' claim. Musher - elaborate please?

[strife220]

I found something in my slight reread that I think is very interesting. A little while ago, strife pulled out this crazy theory:

As a side-theory that people may attack me for since it's heavy on speculation, is that scum may get to find out the identity of who they kill. This would explain the perfect job title as well as his eagerness to claim, if N0 kill (forget his name) was the doc.

An interesting theory to be sure, no evidence either way, but it does make you wonder. However, he seems to forget his own theory here:

You're right SL that scum could have made up the title, but a lack of counter-claim makes me think he's telling the truth. Of course given the 'no-reveal' rules, counter-claiming is risky in and of itself...

So I guess my logic is:
There's a very good chance of there being a doctor in this game (as in most minis).
If there's a doctor, there's a very good chance their title is 'Physician.'
Given that Musher said he was a doctor with the title Physician, I think he's either telling the truth, or our real doc (if we have one) has decided that since there is a no-reveal rule, counter-claiming wouldn't be smart.

First off, if strife's theory is correct, it would explain why Musher's claim is so "perfect" even if he is scum. Someone mentioned that they couldn't see musher coming up with that flavor. Well, maybe he didn't have to.
Next, I find it strange that strife would come up with that theory out of the blue like that.
I had something else I was thinking of, but I forgot it. I'll post it when I remember it.

I didn't forget my own theory. It's just too unlikely to base any theory off of at this point. If tomorrow comes and something happens to make the theory more reasonable, then I'll bring it up again.

Why would you think it strange for me to come up with the theory? I was thinking "If Musher is scum, why would he think he could get away with that claim..."
My first thought was 'maybe he doesn't care to get away with it if he can reveal the real doctor.' Second thought was 'maybe he knows something we don't about roles.'

[strife220]

Mr Stoofer's argument to why he should still be lynched is good.

Hacker's argument on why the claim sucks is terrible.

SeraphicMirth's argument why he shouldn't be lynched is good, except for the end. If you're 50% confident he's scum, 50% confident he's the doc, those are good odds for town.

There hasn't been enough said from Musher himself lately.

It's been I think 5 pages since a vote count.

Mod

Can we get a vote count, and if the majority agrees, is extending the deadline an option?

[strife220]

What she said ^^. I've also been thinking this but didn't want to bring it up because I'm afraid it'll make scum less likely to NK him.

On the other hand, if Musher manages to block the NK on someone else, then he'll become confirmed innocent.


If anyone missed it, mod said the deadline will go to June 21st if nobody objects. I'm all for it, and would like to get some attention on Stoofer.

[strife220]

Deadline is in 2 days Musher; if you think you have something to prove your innocence, I wouldn't beat around the bush.

[strife220]

Musher, on top of stating what you think Stoofer should know, please state the flavor of your win condition. When does town win - When all Hebrews are dead? When the Egypt is no longer threatened? Please provide as much flavor as possible without quoting your PM directly. Make sure you include keywords.

*Town, please don't say anything about this until he replies*

[strife220]

He's admitting he doesn't know what you're talking about. State it Musher.

[strife220]

Musher: I'm not scum and I don't know what you're talking about. It's June 13 and deadline is still posted June 15th. Regardless of his alignment I doubt he's going to be searching through these pages to find out what you're talking about. This just makes you seem scummier and is really making me question my judgment on your claim.

So please, under the threat of getting hammered if you don't comply, what are you talking about?

And answer my question:

state the flavor of your win condition. When does town win - When all Hebrews are dead? When the Egypt is no longer threatened? Please provide as much flavor as possible without quoting your PM directly. Make sure you include keywords.

There's no pro-town reason to avoid this question.

[strife220]

Woah cross-posting.

Stoofer you can talk about the question Musher is asking you - i.e. the mysterious thing to prove his innocence. I just don't want anybody to talk about the win condition.

[strife220]

Is that exactly what your win condition is Musher? In the sentence where it talks about how you win, those are the only key words? Threat to egypt?

I believe we've caught scum people

[strife220]

Musher: He's going to talk about the cipher post after you explain what you are talking about with the 'practically confirm my innocence' comment

[strife220]

... that doesn't confirm your innocence any more than claiming doctor does. You could be lying. And how would Stoofer have known what you are talking about there?

[strife220]

Musher, do you really not understand? When you report something you have to paraphrase the Mod's PM as close as you can without actually quoting. Saying that you eat pork is useless to town. My stupidity margin is growing really thin.

Right. Please reconsider my question. Actually, I believe you've already been requested to re-do your full claim.

By that I mean,

Please PARAPHRASE all of the information in your role-pm.
As a general rule, you are not allowed to quote, but you are allowed to give a detailed paraphrase in order to give everyone an idea of what your flavor is. Key nouns and verbs should be included.

For example, if your win condition says something like "Town wins when all threats to Egypt have been irradicated," you should say something like "my win condition is to irradicate the threats of Egypt."

So please, give us a full claim, one single post, no quoting, but including important pieces of information. I'm most interested in your win condition.

[strife220]

Post 744 was cross-posted with SL's post 743. I second her request, I guess.

[strife220]

Musher: why did you have to change the word to prosperity? To avoid direct quotes?

I'll post my full thoughts on today once I get more time.

[strife220]

Musher, why did you think Stoofer would not know about food? Did you think only pro-town had food, and thus scum wouldn't know about it, except for the small mention at the beginning of the day?

[strife220]

SM: I got his point, I just want to hear him say it. I'm not trying to lynch a doctor anyway, I just want to be positive before I rant.

[strife220]

Because Musher didn't seem to know that the generic townie PM was in the first post of the game. Else he would have known that scum knew all about the food.

[strife220]

That doesn't explain his conversation with Stoofer, Huck.

He talked about how Stoofer didn't seem to know what he was talking about. As in, he didn't think scum had food, and thus Stoofer, if scum, wouldn't know about food. At least that's what I got from it, which is why I asked for his win conditions and said 'I think we caught scum' when he wasn't able to claim it properly. It's also why I asked for town not to comment on my question - because I didn't want someone to say "he could just look at the first post."

[strife220]

Do you admit to knowing that the Townie PM (which mentions food) was put up on post #1 Musher?

My number 1 suspect was Stoofer, but I'm kind of backing away from that right now. Without having previous experience playing with him, I am starting to think what I consider confidence only scum could have, is actually how his normal play-style.

Without the alignment-reveals I find it difficult to pin anyone with confidence. I'd say right now I'm very unhappy with Hasdgasdfafdsa's lurking and lack of contribution. He's previously justified his lurking by saying he doesn't like posting without having anything useful to say. Near the middle of the game he was relatively active in getting Guardian lynched (whose claim I do tend to believe), but has been very active before it and very inactive since.

Since I'm dead-set against a Musher lynch, I think Has would be a good choice for the day. He's been more active in other games than this current one, despite all that's happened here. He's been generally unhelpful, and has been much more a follower of bandwagons then one who's posted his own ideas and theories to justify votes. The justification of his lynch also doesn't rely on on knowing Guardian's alignment. Moreover, if his role isn't revealed upon death, we will lose much less information than if someone more active is lynched without a role-reveal.

That's my theory

Unvote
Vote: Hasdgfas

[strife220]

Always open to better ideas Hasdg - that don't involve lynching Musher, myself, or no-lynching.

[strife220]

EBWOP: Better ideas that can become majority within 7 days.
Yep, that's the 'one week 'til deadline' call. It seems like the majority doesn't want a Musher vote, which means we have to make a different choice. We're also down Stoofer, who is parking his vote on Musher.

Opinions everyone?

[strife220]

Have you already presented a full case on Huck, springlullaby?

Deadline is very soon and I'd love for everyone to state their positions on what they'd be happiest with. Musher, no-lynch, or name some others. I'm afraid that because people aren't going to make their voices known, we're going to end up with Musher or no-lynch by default, neither of which I'm happy about.

This is what I see so far:

HackerHuck - Musher as the best lynch, spring lullaby or Hur also okay

hasdgfas - Voting Musher, but hasn't commented on the last several pages. Has - What is your opinion right now, given the upcoming deadline?

lord_hur - Said he's not for a Musher lynch, but hasn't offered up any other opinion. Hypocritically, he actually stated how he wants everybody else to post Their top suspicions. Hur - What would YOU be happy with doing come deadline.

Mr Stoofer - Vote is staying on Musher right up until deadline.

Musher333 - No suspects listed. Musher - What would you go for at deadline.

springlullaby (1) - Voting Hackerhuck. Unclear what else she'd go for at deadline.

Springlullaby - same question as everyone else

SeraphicMirth - Against a Musher lynch. Unclear what she would be for. SeraphicMirth - Same question.

Singing Librarian - Unvoted Musher to presumably do a re-read. Singing Librarian - Updates please. Who would be the best lynch? What else would you be happy doing at deadline?

strife220 - Against a Musher lynch. Against no-lynch. Not cool with a Stoofer lynch. Happiest with a Hasdgfas bandwagon (anti-town lurking + no tragedy if we don't get to find out his alignment, compared to say Musher or Stoofer). However I'll jump on just about any other bandwagon to prevent Musher or no-lynch.

[strife220]

To restate the case for not lynching Musher

He's definitely not played the last 10 pages exceptionally well. However:

He has claimed Doc. A good scum-claim no doubt, because lynching a claimed doc on D2 is a Bad Idea.

He has given good flavor (albeit in pieces), such as 'Physician' and 'Eats Fish.' Both of these bits of flavor fit in very well with the game, and the fact that they aren't countered almost proves he's town.

He played out the last 3 pages as if he had no idea that scum knew about townies having food. Supposedly he forgot that the townie PM was in the first post. Yet he was still able to state the townie win condition (eliminate menaces to the integrity of egypt). Either he was clever scum playing aloof, or he actually has that role PM. I'm VERY inclined to believe that Musher-scum would not be clever enough to do something like this (no offense musher), and thus I'm considering him to be essentially confirmed doc.

[strife220]

I strongly oppose a Musher lynch now.

Vote Hackerhuck

I didn't like his position while voting lord_hur earlier, I'm not liking his pushing so strongly for the Musher lynch now.

Not a particularly strong case, but I guess it's better than some.

Please post your position more clearly SpringLullaby. In order of preference - Musher lynch, no-lynch, Hucker lynch, other lynch (Has, Hur, and yourself have all been mentioned).

[strife220]

Sorry Hur, I glanced at your post history and saw that you haven't changed votes or FOS'd for your last 63 posts. I should've picked up on the Hacker-mindedness though. You were certainly explicit there. Will fix it when I update my running tally.

[strife220]

I'm hoping for a bigger stance than a "weak FOS." Are you willing to see someone lynched based on a weak FOS? If that's your strongest opinion by now, I'm alarmed. If you're town, I'd think you would have big suspicions of people on your own wagon. How is no-lynch sounding? What about Hacker? Hur? SpringLullaby? Stoofer? Is Hasdgfas really the only person you're suspicious of at all right now?

[strife220]

While I agree in general that claiming Doc is a null-tell, I think that the chance of them actual being Doc should influence the decision as to whether or not a lynch is a good idea. For an extreme example, I'd rather lynch someone I was 50% sure of being scum who claimed Vanilla than someone who I was 51% sure of being scum who claimed Doc. The difference is the consequences have changed, and a living Doc is much more valuable than a living townie.

That is, even if you do consider a doc claim to be a null tell, it should not have a null effect on your vote choice. I find it strange that 4 of you voting Musher almost explicitly disagree. Nobody said they still think the chances of him being scum outweigh the consequences of lynching a pro-town powerrole. You all just said that the claim had zero effect on your stance.

That, + lots of other reasons I mention why I think Musher is a bad lynch, wah wah wah, it doesn't look like I'll get my way here. That's Musher at L-1.

The other 5 are myself, Hur, SpringLullaby, Seraphic, and Musher himself, all of which apparently disagree with the Musher-wagon. It seems like the only way to avoid the Musher-lynch is if we all agree together on no-lynch, or most likely, HackerHuck since he's the only other wagon going on right now. Hur and SpringLullaby are already voting Hacker, and Musher would obviously support any lynch that's not his own. I'm going to do a Huck re-read to see if I'd be up for his lynch, but I suspect I will be (over the alternative). SeraphicMirth, based on your previous statements, is seems you would also support Huck over Musher?

[strife220]

Fish/Pork/Whatever, both are fine flavor. And Physician is perfect flavor. What else do you think the game's doc would be called?

He didn't claim the townie win condition exactly at first, but did it spot on upon further request. Same thing with stating 'physician.' He's just being sloppy and not checking his role-pm until more directly requested. Until the recent discussion of flavor, I certainly couldn't have said what my name, egyptian profession, and favorite food was.

[strife220]

Post 791 contains logic and reason.

HackerHuck reread still coming from me soon.

[strife220]

Re-reading HackerHuck I don't see a very strong case. His first Vote on SlySly (only confirmed town) was a little off, but I can't find any big scumtells. LordHur and Hasdgfas are both better lynches for today - however LordHur would clearly rather vote Musher than himself, so that leaves me with just Hasdgfas.

SeraphicMirth, based on your previous statements, is seems you would also support Huck over Musher?

No. I don't have any gripe against Hacker at this point. I haven't been really paying attention to him but nothing strikes me as off in the normal reading. I also think your strategizing on how many people you could get to vote for HH is interesting. Any argument against him that I have seen so far is extremely weak, and definitely not enough to even really question him on anything. So, those that are for a Hacker lynch..what exactly is it against him and could you pose some questions that he could answer?

I think my reasons for this push have been made obvious. There are 9 players left. 4 of them are voting Musher. 5 of them don't want to vote Musher. I'm one of those 5. The only way a Musher lynch is going to be avoided is if we lynch someone else (or no-lynch). Right now the only competing bandwagon is HackerHuck, hence my 'strategizing.' If you think what I'm doing is scummy or anti-town, call me out, but don't imply I'm being unclear or conniving.


Between a Hacker lynch, a no-lynch, and a Musher lynch, I'm honestly a bit torn. The no-flip rule is quite frustrating, because on the surface it makes no-lynch seem like the right thing to do, given that no information is gained from a mislynch. I guess we have to assume that the game is properly balanced, and of course the only way to win is by lynching scum. I suppose my preference would be:
Hasdgfas > Hackerhuck > Musher > No lynch. I really hope people reconsider the lynch on Hasdgfas, based on a significant amount of lurker-ness, a bit of scumminess, and (perhaps most importantly) the lack of consequence if his alignment isn't revealed. Lynching lurkers isn't a great strategy in normal games, but becomes much better when the lynchees' alignment may not be revealed.


Musher - Why do you not have a vote out right now? I'm boggled by the fact that you're L-1 with people defending you, but you're not helping your own case. And this is not a rhetorical question - please answer it.

[strife220]

So if we're wrong about a random townie, we've erroneously lynched one and there will be a second townie death during the night. Really, the only difference is that we will either see Musher die tonight or we will see someone else die tonight. I'm still not sure how that makes it a bad idea to lynch Musher if you think he's scum.

I know it's not directed towards me, but:
Your 'only difference' is based on the assumption that we lynch pro-town today. The argument is that we get a chance to catch scum. If you think pro-town Musher is going to die either way, then lynching him is a complete waste of a lynch.

[strife220]

EBWOP:
Above post sounded kind of disorganized, but I think my point is clear.

Huck says: If Musher is pro-town, he'll either die today or tonight so it doesn't make a difference.
I say: If Musher is pro-town and we lynch him, that's 2 townies guaranteed dead (Lynch + NK). If Musher is pro-town and we look for actual scum, then that's 1 townie guaranteed dead (NK) and a reasonably good shot of finding scum (lynch).

[strife220]

I'd take a Hur lynch over a HackerHuck lynch no problem. Still prefer Hasdgfas though.

the lack of consequence if his alignment isn't revealed. Lynching lurkers isn't a great strategy in normal games, but becomes much better when the lynchees' alignment may not be revealed.

This makes no sense at all. Why is alignment possibly not getting revealed a reason to lynch "lurkers"?

Why do we lynch lurkers? To eliminate the chance of scum 'slipping through,' getting to end game, and having no content to look through for tells. And even if they aren't scum, they weren't helping town much.

Why do we lynch players who contribute? Because we think they might be scum. And even if they aren't scum, we get lots of information upon uncovering their alignment to guide is in future lynches. It's a common mistake in newbie games for first-time townies to Vote: No Lynch because they realize that the probability of hitting scum D1 is very low. It's the IC's job to say "You're right, however, we lynch so that we can get information and look for tells."

With no card-flip, the reason for lynching players with lots of contribution drops down, because their lynch doesn't give town any information. If we knew his alignment, we'd have a lot more to go off of today because we'd no who supported and who avoided his lynch.

So as the reason for lynching players who contribute decreases, the motivation to lynch lurkers early-game increases relatively. I'm actually quite suspicious of Stoofer, but if he IS scum, he should be easier to identify late-game from all the content. And if he IS town, then he should be a lot more helpful ... again, from the content. Moreover, if Stoofer was lynched and his alignment didn't show up, it'd drive me nuts because a lot of information died upon his lynch. If you got lynched, Hasdgfas, I wouldn't be nearly as upset if your card didn't get flipped, because the worst case scenario (you were town) isn't as bad, because at least you weren't a particularly useful town player here.

The 'mafia' we're used to playing relies heavily upon alignment revealing upon death. When that changes, the strategy changes a lot. People should be accounting for this in their play.

[strife220]

If we were playing a full no-reveal game, should we just lynch the lurkers because we're not getting any info from our lynches?

No, you're just twisting my words and taking them to the extreme end of the spectrum. I'm saying under the present circumstances, I think your lynch would be the best. These circumstances being: a few days until deadline, (presumably) no card-flip, and the current train being on a claimed doc.

[strife220]

I'd take a Hur lynch over a HackerHuck lynch no problem.

Surprising. May I know why ?

As I've already said, I don't want a Musher-lynch or a no-lynch. When I did my full readthrough on replacing, HackerHuck did not ping my scum-dar. Upon re-reading him, I still didn't see anything that made me think he was likely scum.
When I did my full readthrough on replacing, you did come up nearer the top of my 'potential scum' list. And relative to HackerHuck and Musher, I think you're a good choice. When I have some more time, if SL doesn't hammer Musher, I'll present a full case.

[strife220]

I'd rather lynch a lurker that might be scum than a more active player that might be scum. I also think you're more likely to be scum than HackerHuck, making two strikes.

Why is a "lurker" lynch bad for us?

[strife220]

Since when are the two mutually exclusive? Scum usually have more motivation to lurk than town.

[strife220]

You were lurking, therefore you're probably pro-town, and thus a bad lynch? Your reasoning here is terrible...

However it's close to deadline so I'll drop the argument for today. All the opinions I've stated thus far stand.

[strife220]

Let's be a little more careful in our assumptions here. We cannot yet assume that someone we lynch will not have their role revealed.

Lynching lurkers is always a copout in my opinion and it's often a scumtell.

Arguing that the lurkers should be lynched and the day ended early instead of trying to scum-hunt is a copout and scumtell. We have 3 days until deadline, which is barely enough time to ask a question or two, let alone do in-depth, high-pressure scumhunting.


You're right about the assumption that there will be no role-reveal though. 2/3 no-flips is a very strange ratio; no telling what will happen.



What are your thoughts on LordHur, Hacker?

[strife220]

Hrm... SM said she'd check in to either hammer Musher or make up her opinion on someone else by now. Without the support of everyone not on the Musher wagon, discussing an alternative lynch is useless.

SpringLullaby, when are you going V/LA? Before deadline, correct?

[strife220]

I don't think there's much point in voting Hur, SM. SpringLullaby (v/la) and Hur himself are 2 of the 5 people not on the Musher wagon, so it seems impossible for him to get the 5 votes needed for a lynch.

I suppose I'll

Unvote, Vote: HackerHuck

because I'd still prefer to see him lynched than Musher.

[strife220]

Bah... and with SeraphicMirth leaving with her vote on Hur, that means a HackerHuck lynch is impossible too, without participation from the Musher-wagon

[strife220]

Strife- what changed your mind? This post references Lord_Hur.

As I've already said, I don't want a Musher-lynch or a no-lynch. When I did my full readthrough on replacing, HackerHuck did not ping my scum-dar. Upon re-reading him, I still didn't see anything that made me think he was likely scum.
When I did my full readthrough on replacing, you did come up nearer the top of my 'potential scum' list. And relative to HackerHuck and Musher, I think you're a good choice. When I have some more time, if SL doesn't hammer Musher, I'll present a full case.

Changed my mind about presenting a case? SL said she would post up her summary on Wednesday, so first I waited to see if she'd hammer Musher like she said she may. Wednesday passed and no update, but then thursday she said she was going to leave her vote on HackerHuck. My logic I believe was already stated - there are 5 of us not on the Musher-wagon, one of which is Hur himself, and to get a lynch off on someone Hur, we would need all 5 of us (4 not voting Musher + Stoofer) together. With her vote stuck on HackerHuck, there's no way that would happen. It usually takes me several hours to do detailed rereads and present a full case, as I believe anyone can sympathize with, so I usually only do them if I think they may prove worthwhile. I'd rather lynch you than Musher, and SL and Hur are already voting you, hence my current vote.

However, Stoofer just said he'd probably rather lynch lord_hur today. I'd much rather lynch Hur. Hacker, you said Hur would be a good choice, but would you be willing to switch from Musher?



I believe Stoofer's unofficial votecount is correct. SeraphicMirth is leaving her on Hur until deadline, which means that the only way a Hacker lynch is going to go off is if Stoofer, Hasdgfas, or SLibrarian switch to him. Since none of those seem likely, I'm going to

Unvote, Vote: Lord_Hur

since it seems my vote has a chance to actually do something there. Apologies for not making the case as promised. I do have a bit done, but it's only half through D1 (and on my computer at home). I picked out Hur's unusual speculation on game mechanics/power roles, and an incident where he defended Hasdgfas as potentially scummy. I'll post what I got thus far when I get home from work if anyone wants.

If somebody on the Musher wagon switches to HackerHuck, I will definitely check before deadline to make sure my vote goes somewhere that will complete a lynch: preference being Hur > Hacker > Musher or nolynch.

[strife220]

Hmm... Just so I know what I'm getting in to here.

Right now it's 3, 3, 2 votes for Musher, Hur, and Huck respectively. Musher is an idiot and not voting to save his own skin, but presumably he will vote for Hur if he logs in. That will make it a Hur majority at deadline.

Your Vote: Hur is under the condition that if Musher doesn't vote and it's still 3, 3, 2 come evening, I will vote so that Musher gets lynched instead of no-lynch?

[strife220]

Nm, crossposted.

[strife220]

Hur:

My re-read started from D1, and I had to stop after an hour or so in. I only got to I think page 11 or 12, so I'm sorry but the only evidence that I got concretely written town was about that time frame. Your D2 play has been more than questionable.

hasdgfas is scum. At the bottom of the thread, where it says 'display posts by previous', click hasdgfas, and view his posts in isolation:

Post 0 -- he random votes for HH because he doesn't want to get hacked. He is showing care for his own well being, even in his joke.

Post 1 -- he addresses a question posed to someone else (tvod, conveniently), and talks about how "we" shouldn't do "x" because that would help "them" -- the scum. This post is trying to be helpful but isn't, and interjects so tvod can't answer the question untainted.

Post 2 -- Similarly appears to be helpful but isn't really. 'Why not play mafia?'. ...

Post 3 -- hasdgfas is definitely directing tvod here; my most probable read is scum directing scum (partner, why do you act suspiciously? act better!) but I think that scum directing new town to look nice a pro-town is an almost as probable scenario.

Post 4 -- Casts minor suspicion and comments on how 'he doesn't like' something.

Cliff Notes

hasdgfas has posted a few times but hasn't really been helpful, though he has appeared to be so while talking about theory. imo scum love to do this. He is guilty of directing tvod and protecting him from a question, a connection a townie would not want to make. Lastly, his diction leads me to believe that he is scum; instances such as the 'I don't want to get hacked' and careful use of we to refer to town and they to refer to scum make me believe this.

SlySly is also probably scum.

tvod may or may not be scum; there is evidence of a hasdgfas connection, for sure. I am unsure how much faith I have in the direct case on tvod.

unvote: slysly ; vote: hasdgfas

fos: slysly, mfos: tvod

My own opinion on this :

0. Very far-fetched.

1. I don't like the use of we and them too, I must admit. But it is not a good scumtell in my books.

2. Well it wasn't the most useful thing to say, but it was on point regarding what VOD said. No scumtell.

3. He was trying to make VOD talk, not directing him. And I would have been interested in VOD's answer too. Pro-town to me.

4. Same, he's just provoking a reaction. Slightly pro-town.

On the other hand, I do agree with you on the fact hasdgfas has only said pretty obvious things, that others would surely have asked if he wasn't there (on 4 I actually said the same thing right before he did, probably Sarnath'ed him though).

I don't think it should get him a vote for now though. But if he still hasn't contributed much in a week or so... (<- this is a subtle hint directed to hasdgfas).

Post 94, if you ask. Guardian made an attack post, and Hasdgfas makes a short counter. You then make a big chain-saw defense on D1 in the scum-hunting stage. There's no pro-town reason to do this. Guardian's attack wasn't very good, but there was absolutely no need for it to be responded to by anyone other than hasdgfas himself.


If you're town, you should definitely do a full claim Hur. Roles may not be revealed upon death, so you should spill Name, Job Title, and Job. Not sure if there's a point to claim food or not.

[strife220]

My logic I believe was already stated - there are 5 of us not on the Musher-wagon, one of which is Hur himself, and to get a lynch off on someone Hur, we would need all 5 of us (4 not voting Musher + Stoofer) together.

You're wrong, 4 are enough to lynch because of the deadline. But you already knew that, right ?

4 would have been a tie, assuming hur shifted to Musher to avoid his own lynch.

[strife220]

#
# The Siblings do not know each other's alignments (in this case they are often called Lovers).

Never actually played a game with lovers before. Do you know SL's alignment?

[strife220]

I'm in the dark on this 'answer was H' thing here. Obscure reference?

[strife220]

Scum couldn't get away with hammering in a situation like this, so you should be safe there.

Hoping SLibrarian checks in to have her say soon.

[strife220]

Hur could you give slightly more detail on your claim? If you don't have a job title or anything then your flavor must differ a bit from the townie PM. What parts of your PM are different, and what do they say?

Welcome to Plagues of Egypt Mafia, [player].

[illustration of role]

You are [name], a [job]. You are a simple

townie

, with no special abilities.

You have heard that there are some Hebrews on the loose threatening to attack the Egyptian people, and you have been chosen to be the representative of [job]s in the daily meetings the Pharaoh has organised to fight the menace.

During daytime, you will attend the Pharaoh's meetings to participate in the discussion and cast a vote on who, in your opinion, is against the Egyptians and should not be alive.

Also, you usually eat [type of food] at lunch.

You will win this game when all menaces to the integrity of Egypt have been wiped out.

[strife220]

Looking for mod-confirmation that deadline will be 11:59pm, June 21

[strife220]

A no-reveal game is the perfect opportunity for scum to claim masonry and get away with it. Unless we see a contradictory statement from the singing librarian, I would strongly oppose a lynch of lord_hur now.

I don't understand what you mean here. I'm also unsure why it lessens your suspicion of SpringLullaby?

How is it I'm now scummy enough to vote for in your eyes?

I was voting you because I strongly opposed a Musher lynch, and you were the only person with any sort of wagon on you. I felt Hur would have been a better lynch, hence why I switched to him when I saw the opportunity to lynch someone other than you or Musher. However in light of the claim I'm starting to regret my stance. It seems highly unlikely that Hur and SLibrarian would both be scum pulling a huge gambit here. I guess it doesn't matter if Librarian checks in or not, they're either lovers or gambling scum-buddies, and I don't see the latter as likely.

Just about any other claim and I would have kept my vote. However, I see no reason why not to believe it. Which unfortunately means, I have to

Unvote, Vote: Musher

, as Hur and SLibrarian have become my least favorite lynch candidates due to the claim.

[strife220]

Scum couldn't get away with hammering in a situation like this, so you should be safe there.

Hoping SLibrarian checks in to have her say soon.

Another question for you Hur. Why would revealing your role harm town in anyway? If you thought you were going to be lynched, SLibrarian was going to die as well. How would that help scum?

[strife220]

I think you should explain why you think Singing Librarian would die if Lord_Hur was lynched.

From the wiki

The classic Siblings roles are a Goon and a Cop that know each other, with the condition that if one dies, the other commits suicide the following night ...
The Siblings do not know each other's alignments (in this case they are often called Lovers).

Isn't that exactly what lovers are? When one dies, the other is overwhelmed with grief and kills themself?



I never thought that they could be anti-town lovers. Sorry everyone for blundering around here, I really for the life of me can't figure out what the most pro-town move is.

[strife220]

But I'd love to hear opinions from people other than SLibrarian, Hur, and Musher as to what the right move is; i.e. Musher or Hur, and why.

[strife220]

Good to see Hasdgfas is back to lurking after I voted for him partially because of it.
He's made FORTY posts in other threads since he last said anything in here... What kind of excuse is there for that!

I think I'm going to keep my vote on Musher. I just don't see a scum-pair both outting themselves like that. My reason for not wanting Musher lynched was because, if he's actually the doc, he would have been nightkilled by scum, making it essentially a prove-able role and giving us the day lynch to catch scum. The chance of him being town wasn't worth the risk of a lynch.
If they're both town, one of them will be lynched today and the other likely NK'd. If one of them is scum, I'd say it's more likely Musher, so I'll be keeping my vote on him.

[strife220]

Hi all,

Like Undo said, me replacing in was obviously not ideal, but I only offered after the game was under threat of shutting down. The only information I have from my previous role was my own PM. So if Undo is willing to, I think quoting the role PM would probably be fairest to everyone.

[strife220]

When they left, a few minutes later, there was nothing to see but yards and yards of razed crops. Their unsatiable hunger was stronger than any other natural disaster Egypt had ever seen. And although this plague didn't cause any demise yet, its consequences will surely be calamitous...[/i]

Hur's worries seem pretty reasonable, with something bad surely happening down the road.

The reason you're so sure it's LL is 100% because of the name thing?

[strife220]

Second: if stark says I visited no one, and you think he's speaking the truth, why would you lynch me? I didn't kill anyone, while I see no reason for scum not to kill.

I don't understand your argument here. Stark claims you didn't kill anyone last night, but scum didn't kill anyone. How is this incompatible with you being scum?

LH: if you still think I'm scum, could you unvote anyway to see what happens if we wait for some time? If you think I'm scum, surely you wouldn't mind seeing both stark and me die. If only me or only stark dies, you and HH can still lynch the other if you want.

I don't understand this. Your saying that grain eaters will all die soon, and since Stark said he's a grain eater, that means you'll both die? So you think Stark has to get a lynch in before the grain-eaters all die because him dying means game-over? This scenario doesn't fit with Stark being scum, since it assumes a) he is actually a cereal eater, and b) he would have chosen such a suicidal night action. The only way I see it fitting is if scum don't get choice over their night actions, and Stark wasn't smart enough to lie about his food.



I don't think the name thing is a great argument for why LL must be scum. I do think the "lets wait around a while" comments he's making are quite damning though, when clearly the locust thing hasn't taken effect yet.

[strife220]

Hammering in the next 24 hours unless anybody has more D5 contribution.

p.s. I was vanilla in my previous life.

p.p.s. from brief re-reading:

Do you often use "their" for a singular ("only one person") ?

The singular alternative is 'his' or 'her.' English doesn't have a good gender-free word to use when you don't want to specify sex, so we often use 'their' as a singular. It may not be 100% grammatically correct, but it's well accepted.

[strife220]

Here goes

Vote: LL

[strife220]

Woo, both a win and a loss for me.

When I got the PM with all the plagues, I finally realized how awesome the set-up was. Very cool concept.

I'm not positive how I won. The first-born plague stopped Hur from being able to vote, making the end game effectively me vs huck for voting, thus a scum win?

[strife220]

Darn. Oh well, sorry for the name thing. It was indeed too good to be true... it seems Mr Stoofer looked the names up as well, because his name was fitting very well. Or was it luck? Guess we'll never know.

I should have trusted my gut and voted him

There was a fake-name and jobs in the scum PM. It's luck if you think the name and the job (Sudi, scribe) matched up well.

Has's fake-name was suggested to be nkozi