2078: Any Non-Dead Person Can Post In This Mafia Game [end]
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Jingle For Whom the Bell Trolls
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I have a 1000 post scum QT that lasted 3 years.In post 5160, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:We probably also have one of the longest scum PTs on record.This is a Parachute.-
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Titus/Pops/Tammy and I are both mechanically town.In post 5222, Pine wrote:mastina - This is mastina!Town, I think.
Jingle - Probably Town
Ausuka - Almost certainly Town
PenguinPower - IDFK. My gut says there's no scum motivation for claiming a false guilty, but there's no mechanic I know of to give false results to a tracker
Titus/pops/Tammy - Tonal Town read
Who/RC/Creature - I think this is the last scum by PoE, but more importantly, Creature going silent is telling. He's really easy to read as Town, and transparent as scum. In a hydra, I think he'd go silent on reading a scum role PM.
ofrhz - I have a broad TR on ohfrz, but it'll get sorted
That leaves one scum in WhoCCreature/Sgt. Angle/Ausuka (Potentially PP even if Pine flips scum).
Ausuka Investigates WhoCCreature.
PP Investigates Ausuka.
If Ausuka lives, 1v1 with either ANGLE or WhoCCreature.
If Ausuka Dies, 1v1 with PP and PP result.
With 8 alive, this takes us to near autowin.
If PP town, PP likely dies over Ausuka.This is a Parachute.-
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?In post 5249, RadiantCowbells wrote:but yeah, ausuka never targets us if this flips roleblocker. ofrhz or mastina.This is a Parachute.-
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If Pine scum nonroleblocker:
Tomorrow we have
6 alive:
Jingle
pops
RC
ofhrz
mastina
Aus
PP
If PP scum -> Aus dies, PP claims blocked. Scum is implied in mastina/PP/ofhrz with 2 remaining lynches. prove ofhrz by governing mastina, lynch mastina, lynch PP. PP loses.
-> Aus lives, Aus claims blocked, PP claims blocker 1v1 with 2 remaining lynches. PP loses
-> Aus lives, Aus claims inno on RC, lynch pool is mastina/ofhrz/Aus/PP. Next Day, Aus claims another inno/dies, PP 50/50 chance at winning. This is scum PP's only out.
If Aus scum -> PP dies, Aus claims blocked. Lynch pool is RC/Aus/mastina/ofhrz. RC implied not blocker. test ofhrz govern on mastina, lynch mastina. Lynch pool is RC/ofhrz/Aus, implied Aus scum via 2 confirmed roles.
-> PP lives, Aus claims blocked, PP CC's and 1v1 means town win.
-> PP lives, Aus claims result. Aus has 50/50 in LYLO. Scum Aus's only out.
If RC blocking scum -> Aus dies, PP claims blocked, RC wins.
If RC nonblocking scum -> town autowin.
If pine is non roleblocking scum, RC slot autowins as blocking scum, Aus and PP have a 1v1 in LYLO as their out, mastina, ofhrz autolose as scum.
If Pine is roleblocking scum, we should be in a better situation, considering all of the block claim scenarios are impossible.
I'm satisfied with this event chain.This is a Parachute.-
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If Pine town:
Tomorrow, Aus probably dead.
Jingle
Pops
RC
Ofhrz
mastina
PP
PP lynched.
Jingle/pops
RC
mastina
ofhrz
4p LYLO with 1 conftown. Solve here is more difficult and PP flip is hugely relevant. No where near autowin.
Hm. We can discuss this tomorrow if needed when we have a Pine flip.This is a Parachute.-
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Lynch scum PP:
Ausuka dies (balance cleared)
Jingle
pops
Pine
RC
ofrhz
mastina
2 lynches and a confirmation of ofrhz's power, means RC and mastina probs both die.
Lynch town PP:
Pine lynch tomorrow, no additional clears either via Ausuka block or kill.
Same LYLO, same implications. ofhrz is likely the assumptive town in the LYLO, both me and pops likely dead if there's a blocker. If there isn't a blocker or scum wants to frame RC, Ausuka lives and it's a 50/50.
Eh. No real benefit to the numbers, we lynch whichever is more likely to be scum today.This is a Parachute.-
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1: If it meaningfully increased my chances of winning, yes.In post 5305, RadiantCowbells wrote:jingle if i were guiltied in a situation like this would you ever, EVER consider lynching the person who claimed a guilty on me? i'll answer that question no for you.
whether pine isas good as meis academic but he's more than capable of everything that he's done today post guilty
2: My reservation isn't in Pine's actions. It's in PP's.This is a Parachute.-
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In post 963, PenguinPower wrote:
I have a game-related reason to keep my gif spamming low right now.In post 950, Wagonomics wrote:Only three dancing gifs does seem low given how silly this game isIn post 1971, PenguinPower wrote:
Almost as if I’m on v/la and have stated previously a mechanic where it is beneficial for me to limit my posting.In post 1957, Pine wrote:Assuming nom follows through and shoots me, here are my reads:
Scum: Lavender, one of {Who, Eevee}*, one of the lurkers {mastina, Penguin, Titus}. SK nomnomnom.
Town: Ohfrz, Jingle, Ausuka
*Both seem a little scummy, but my gut says not together.
Almost.
Like most of your reads though (why lavender and Titus?). Saw Kison and Zoe both posted...nom lied about his role?
Penguin 3rd party makes less sense than scum, tbh.In post 2858, PenguinPower wrote:I'm going to need a lot more shitposting to happen here. We need to cross 200 pages before EOD plskthx.This is a Parachute.-
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Yeah, there's a reason why I'm giving serious weight to the PP/Pine scumteam world.In post 5316, RadiantCowbells wrote:can you actually read pine's posts?This is a Parachute.-
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Okay. Let's duck out of pure mechanics for a minute and see if I can make subjective reads.
Jingle/Pops
ofhrz
Ausuka
RC
mastina
Pinguin
mastina/Pine is reasonable. Mastina/PP less so. I could see RC/Pine, but I'm frankly okay with losing to that. ofrhz/Pine is ofrhz/PP has some real potential to it. Ausuka/PP leaves us with too little power, I think, assuming that RC/Titus are neutral utility balance wise. Ausuka/Pine is reasonable. RC/PP probably loses here.
So potential scumteams:
RC/PP
Mastina/Pine
ofhrz/PP
Aus/Pine
mastina/PP
Pine/PP
Eliminated from contention
RC/Pine
Aus/PP
ofhrz/Pine
I think town loses if it's ofhrz. So I'm going to stop playing around that. I don't think PP fakeclaims with a hated partner as last scum standing? That seems too risky.This is a Parachute.-
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Always rb a vig claim, regardless of who they say they're going to target.In post 5330, RadiantCowbells wrote:if pine isn't scum, why was nomnom roleblocked when she said she was shooting himThis is a Parachute.-
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Nope. I have enough alts/hydrae that I would already have done so.In post 5358, Pine wrote:Seriously, is there anyone following along who isn't a player? Is it legal for players to go on their own alts to up the count? I've probably got a few alts and hydrae I wouldn't mind using to up the count.This is a Parachute.-
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Scum almost never have redirection in a vig game anyway.In post 5467, RadiantCowbells wrote:Scum never have roleblock and redirection.
I should be declaring V/LA, but I'll post at least once a day, so it's not super necessary. Will catch up late tonight.This is a Parachute.-
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If PP green flips, game is over. RC likely town. Current lean is ausuka, no hammer before I come back please. Thank you.In post 5472, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:In post 5468, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:In post 5464, RadiantCowbells wrote:We wanted to add no one.
But we needed to prove that we did the action so we picked someone who wouldn't care about taking the loss.
We're probably getting lynched after Pine.
What if he flips green, what then? You’d be in the clear in that case?In post 5465, RadiantCowbells wrote:After PP.RC, do you have no opinion on this? Question can be answered by anyone. Jingle?
This is a Parachute.-
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Pine could not have visited a single player. It's an impossible result. If PP is town and telling the truth, scum has a redirector and played said redirector terribly. Teal deer: PP is scum or we have already lost this game.In post 5480, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:I also think Pengin will flip town. He claimed tracker right? So obviously Pine tried to loverize Nom. It’s only because Pine was acting so uberscummy, he tracked him in the first place.This is a Parachute.-
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I have. Used to drive through regularly for work a couple years ago. Lotsa wine, not a lot else.In post 5527, ofrhz wrote:So I'll be in Walla Walla for 4th July. Have you been there Jingle?This is a Parachute.-
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All of my symmetry arguments are invalid now as they were based on the idea that scum wouldn’t get two of the same role. But yes. You are correct.In post 5549, Cephrir wrote:hello i was just reading this thread and felt the need to weigh in that you shouldn't assume town wouldn't have two of the same role and in fact should give that idea zero weight, especially in a theme game. as a mod duplicating town roles to see how the town will react is fun and valid
thank uThis is a Parachute.-
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Eh. Disagree, given that I specifically asked him to towncase himself.In post 5551, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:@ofrhz, your meta arguments for being town are having the opposite effect and read scummy to me. In contrast, Ausuka and Mastina are just making townie posts, period.This is a Parachute.-
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Nah. This is probably exactly the kill scum RC makes because it’s exactly the kill scum who is not RC makes. There are reasons to think RC town. If RC is scum, frankly, we probably win this tonight.In post 5536, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
While it’s certainly possible that this is a scum hydra recruiter, I don’t see why scum!hydra recruiter kills the the town hydra recruiter. It would seem like self-sabotage for RC hydra to do this.In post 5451, xyzzy wrote:Titus, popsofctown, and Tammy have died and were a town hydra recruiter.
Who, RadiantCowbells, Creature, and Ether are now a hydra.This is a Parachute.-
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In post 5648, mastina wrote:Futile attempt to make Jingle not be tonight's nightkill even though he is totally tonight's nightkill/stabbing myself in the foot if he actually DOES live and interprets this as trying to set up a paranoia lylo mislynch of conftown:
You know better than to try.
mastina's self towncase is pretty solid, actually. She's probably the player on the site with the most respect for my game.
I want to townbin ofhrz. I really do. His rush to spampost when asked to, his claim, his singleminded dedication to actually getting people to turn his power on, all of these are things that SHOULD by all rights be NAI. His general towniness over the course of the game is fakeable. Taken as a whole? I just really want to believe.
If PP flips RB, especially RB with instawin, Ausuka is town-by-balance. Mastina-the-guaranteed lynch + vig + ic just isn't enough power to balance the existence of a roleblocker. If Ausuka is town by balance, that leaves RC as the most likely scum. That means I want Ausuka to invest RC tonight. If Ausuka says RC town, it's trustworthy. If Ausuka dies, well, fuck me sideways cause I have to think about the game more.
If PP flips doctor, RC scum.
If PP flips not roleblocker, I'm like 90% on Ausuka scum.This is a Parachute.-
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Sorry, I don't eat before 3 PM. I'm open to dinner, a late afternoon snack, or eating horrible abominations that are foodlike in appearance in the dead of night though.In post 5652, ruru wrote:Lunch JungleThis is a Parachute.-
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mastina is publicly hated, which is pretty insanely negative utility for either alignment. Additionally, mastina being useless has been fairly NAI recently because RL.
More importantly, PP is caught scum, and his flip should give us real information as to the balance of the setup.This is a Parachute.