Mini 550: KSFV: Game Over

[Battle Mage]

hi guys. I'll be posting here just as soon as ive finished settling into Cult Mafia. I've read some of the game already, and it looks awesome. Thanks for having me!

BM

[Battle Mage]

BattleMage usually posts more frequently.

That's odd that he's continuing Mr_Gnome_It_All's pace of posting infrequently in this game.

see previous post. I replaced into 2 games simultaneously, and i decided rather than confuse myself by reading both at the same time, ill read the shortest one first, and then carry on with this one. I would say this game requires a fair bit more logical thought.

BM

[Battle Mage]

Ok, just popping in to say, i havent read the game. But i have read the OP. And i've nailed us a

guaranteed

scum.

Vote: Rosso Carne

Last night we had 3 NK's. One was clearly a Vig, the flavour for which is pretty obvious. 1 was a standard mafia group, of 2/3 members. and 1 was an SK. Now i modded Chinese New Year Mafia a little while back. It had 2 mafia, 1 SK, and a decent shower of protown power roles.

There is absolutely no F***ing way there is a cult in this game.

Which means Rosso has been lying from his very first post.

Confirm Vote: Rosso Carne

BM

[Battle Mage]

Ok, just popping in to say, i havent read the game. But i have read the OP. And i've nailed us a

guaranteed

scum.

Vote: Rosso Carne

Last night we had 3 NK's. One was clearly a Vig, the flavour for which is pretty obvious. 1 was a standard mafia group, of 2/3 members. and 1 was an SK. Now i modded Chinese New Year Mafia a little while back. It had 2 mafia, 1 SK, and a decent shower of protown power roles.

There is absolutely no F***ing way there is a cult in this game.

Which means Rosso has been lying from his very first post.

Confirm Vote: Rosso Carne

BM

You gave reason as to why there was a vig based on the flavour, but other than GS being "kicked out", the other two NK's flavour seemed fairly similar (torn up, stuffed full of straw). Besides your own personal experience is there any reason to assume that there is a SK because you're argument falls if the assumption you've made on experience becomes false. I agree that a CULT is very unlikely because chances are there are as many 3 mafia groups. Perhaps 2 f there is a vig and perhaps 1 if there is a vig and an SK. The town can't afford to make another mistake cause then if the pattern follows we'll be down to 4 people at which point if we've lynched the wrong person then its over.

The 'Kicked out' kill seems like a vig kill, as it is a matter of

security

, to want to kick the scum out of the game. The 'ripped to shreds' kill is almost certainly an SK, as the most brutal kill flavours almost certainly are, and it fits the balance of the game pretty well.
Stuffed full of straw is quite obviously the Scarecrow Mafia's kill.

3 scum in a 12 player game is balanced. Maybe 4 is a possibility, but a cult and 2 anti-town killing groups?

IMPOSSIBLE.

I'd bet my reputation on it. (or perhaps my pet cat, which is worth a little more)

BM

[Battle Mage]

What's OP?

Opening Post.

[Battle Mage]

i havent read the game. But i have read the OP
[...]
Which means Rosso has been lying from his very first post.

If you only read pete_d's Opening Post, and not the game yet, how do you know what Rosso Carne wrote in his first post from yesterday?

I believe i've already stated that prior to replacing in, i had read a portion of the game. I just havent read the entire thing, or enough to have a good overview of scummy play. Hence im willing to lynch based on an obvious fakeclaim.

3 scum in a 12 player game is balanced. Maybe 4 is a possibility, but a cult and 2 anti-town killing groups?

IMPOSSIBLE.

It is possible; the mechanics in Resident Evil 4 Mafia had the possibility of remaining uncured cult members turning into SKs, but cult members were cured before turning into SKs

Poor comparison. Even with that as an extreme, it doesnt compare to the addition of an SK, and potentially additional mafia members. I'm not seeing it.

FoS: Lloyd

BM

[Battle Mage]

omg, can we lynch this guy already!?

BM

[Battle Mage]

Battle Mage, maybe I didn't understand everything since the last 10 posts, but it seems you're imagining things here. Let's take Lloyd's assumptions:

- stuffed full of straw: Probably by Mafia Scarecrows
- kicked out of the casino: Probably by Vig Bouncer
- torn to pieces: Probably by SK White Tiger (from Siegfried and Roy)

So there would be a Mafia group, a SK and a Vig on the Town side. I can't see anything wrong with that kind of power roles mix...

3 scum in a 12 player game is balanced. Maybe 4 is a possibility, but a cult and 2 anti-town killing groups?

First of all, I don't think a lone Serial Killer should be considered a "group", and he's not anti-Town, but more anti-all. And the Cult is not strictly anti-Town either, since they could go against the Mafia also. Unless I missed something about roles descriptions, I don't see anything that could make the game awfully broken...

An SK has a kill of its own. That gives us 3 kills a night. Its a group in that context. An SK is antitown because he prevents the town from winning.
A Cult is anti-town because it steals townies in order to gain victory for itself. Ive never seen a cult that can recruit from the mafia, hence it isnt as harmful to the mafia as it is to the town. Check out some other 12 player games. I know from my experience moderating them, that such a game would not be allowed to run on account of ridiculous imbalance.

BM

[Battle Mage]

I've seen a cult cop turn up to be a bastard role I think it was goats mafia. I would vote but, we'd be at L-2 and I think we should be trying to get more done today...

Like what?

[Battle Mage]

im gonna get really pissed if this turned out to be a damn bastard mod role.

On top of everything else, that really sealed it for me. Not only is his role improbable, but now he's suggesting we have a bastard mod?

Vote: RC

im confused. you want me dead for questioning my role in an obviously night based setup. yeah, 3 killing roles, this game comes down to night. with three freaking killing roles, whose to say theres not a cult, i simply was mentioning it becuase id be pissed if it were.

More killing roles (anti-town) make a cult LESS likely.

Now, im just assuming because of what i said about GS being vigged that he was. not a big deal,t hats the vigs perogative. I'm also assuming that because i implied that unity may be a cultie that the sk killed him (what sk wants to be recruited). that obviously worked out since it killed scum. not a big deal.

Fracking hell!
SK's dont get recruited. Even if for some reason there was a cult and this was the most unfair game EVER, SK's are not recruitable.

hell, maybe "stuffed with straw" means that theyre dead but will come back as a cultie. that would be stupid and pointless in my opinion, butt hats jsut speculation. This is obviously a very night based game, and using craplogic like that is no reason for a small wagon.

vote:sensfan

woah, what the hell? You think the wagon against you is based on craplogic. Get a fricking clue mate...
You expect me to take a guy who keeps referring to cult recruits as 'culties' seriously?
I mean, is that actually how your role is laid out?

Rosso Carne- Cultie Cop

rofl. And ive been thinking. Even if we did have a cult, what kind of a pointless role is 'cult cop'? I mean on the first night, there is unlikely to be any recruits anyway. Assuming the game only lasts 2 or 3 days, the role is pretty damn pointless, and barring some miraculous luck, wont achieve anything anyway.

Rosso- have you ever played a game with a cult before?
what is your experience of Mafia outside of MS?

There is absolutely no way this guy should still be alive. If he isnt lynched today, simply put, i'm requesting replacement. If this town cant lynch confirmed scum, then we havent got a hope in hell's chance.

BM

[Battle Mage]

its hardly outguessing the mod to point out an absolute impossibility as far as having a setup approved is concerned.

[Battle Mage]

3 killing roles in a mini is an impossibility without something else to bog it down.

thats ridiculous. A cult makes the situation WORSE for the town, because not only does it allow 3 to die each night, it also means 1 more will be lost to an opposing team. 0.o

[Battle Mage]

im not saying the game isnt highly night-based as you put it (although it concerns me that you keep clinging onto this fact). Im just saying that a Cult throws the game off, and your claim makes no sense.
Now answer my questions.

What is your mafia experience outside of MS?
that includes real life, IRC, scumchat etc.

BM

[Battle Mage]

BM, just in case you didn't notice, he has almost 2 years here at MS...

lol i know. I am going somewhere with this.

[Battle Mage]

Are the Cults automatically anti-Town? I've read in the Wiki that a Cult can be anti-Town or not. And the Vig kill is a pro-Town kill...

im pretty sure if the cult was protown, we wouldnt have a cult cop anyway. lol

Rosso, you are STILL avoiding the question.

BM

[Battle Mage]

SK's dont get recruited. Even if for some reason there was a cult and this was the most unfair game EVER, SK's are not recruitable.

Cult cops probably isn't recruitable either, or else Rosso Carne's claimed role would be recruited already.

Battle Mage, I think you are mafia scum who is pushing for an SK (Rosso Carne)'s quick lynch.

Mafa Scums = Unity, Battle Mage, SensFan
SK = Rosso Carne

Game over.

lol so you think we have a 4 man mafia team in a 12 player game, with an SK aswell. thats nearly 50% scum before we even start....
I'll humour you. On what grounds do you think i am mafia? Because im pushing for an SK's lynch?
*sarcastic clapping*
Yeh, i must be scum.

In seriousness though, with this logic you should be voting for Rosso in any case, in order to remove the additional NK.

Oh and, ooi-why would a cult want to recruit the guy who has outted them? Whats he gonna do- say it was all a big joke? -.-

BM

[Battle Mage]

ohh i see. sorry, thought Unity was still alive.

[Battle Mage]

Are the Cults automatically anti-Town? I've read in the Wiki that a Cult can be anti-Town or not. And the Vig kill is a pro-Town kill...

im pretty sure if the cult was protown, we wouldnt have a cult cop anyway. lol

Rosso, you are STILL avoiding the question.

BM

not really avoiding as much not really caring.

is there a reason?

Yes there is. Now answer the damn question.

[Battle Mage]

Perhaps we need to start talking about other possible scum. We should have at least one more, probably two... (RC may be one of them, or he may be a SK...)

- I think Rosso Carne is an SK who tore Unity to pieces last night

- I think Battle Mage is Scarecrow scum for pushing Rosso Carne's quick lynch. As for Mr_Gnome_It_All (Battle Mage's predecessor), he mostly lurked yesterday, and the only time he tried contributing, was asking others to decipher Greasy Spot's posts, which Unity agreed with Mr_Gnome_It_All

Im not sure what you are getting at here. How does me pushing for a scum lynch make me scum? :$

BM

[Battle Mage]

thanks Aioqwe.
Itd be good if he answers the question before he hangs. so, temp

Unvote

[Battle Mage]

lloyd, i dont tear people.

bm, i want your reasoning.

tough shit. i asked you a question. i want an answer. im hardly going to explain why im asking so you can give me the answer im looking for to vote for someone else now, am i?

You have 12 hours, else i lynch you anyway.

BM

[Battle Mage]

@Lloyd: Just pointing it out RC posted:
Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2008 3:58 pm Post subject: 515

Doesn't seem like a week ago imo... BM, will you clarify why you are making the request after RC gives you the information?

of course. i dont really want to give away what im getting at here, although if my idea is right, Rosso will probably have worked it out anyway.

BM

[Battle Mage]

Rosso Carne is gone for a week (based on info from other games), so I doubt he'll be responding in the next 12 hours.

you can give me the answer im looking for to vote for someone else

You can't possibly be serious about "you can give me the answer im looking for", can you?

Earlier, you mentioned that if Rosso Carne isn't lynched today, you would ask for a replacement. Now, you're considering voting for someone else if Rosso gives you the answer you are looking for?

What answer could Rosso possibly give, for you to vote for someone else?

Let me put it this way. I have a gut feeling which will completely explain Rosso's behaviour here and make me 100% certain of him being scum. The last piece of the puzzle if you will. Of course, look at it from his perspective. He's frightened scum at -2, and doesnt want to fall into something that is obviously a trap of sorts. Perhaps it was a bit strong to say that i would take my vote off him if he gave a particular answer, but its no lie to say that 1 answer will leave me in much more doubt about my vote. Equally, im hardly going to tell him that 1 answer will confirm him as scum to me, because if i do, he is much more likely to work out WHY. -.-

If you are serious about "the answer im looking for"...The only times I recall seeing players fish for info from others, is when groups (i.e. mafia or cult) don't know who each other are.

Some fishing examples are:
- Worst Role Evar - Godfather fishing to find his goon
- Rocks Papers Scissors (multi-mafia game) - Mafia fishing to find each other
- Resident Evil 4 - Cult members fishing to find each other

After Rosso is lynched...If he's not the SK, then this game could be over if we have 3 more night-kills.

If you want to clarify why you are fishing for information, this is the time to do so.

I think you writing "you can give me the answer im looking for" is a HUGE scum tell.

*sigh*
Why would mafia want to find other mafia in this game? Or perhaps more relevant-why would they want to keep quiet about it? 0.o
You're attempt to paint me as fishing for information, is ridiculous.
Trying to analyse a player from a meta perspective is not fishing. In fact, looking into a players meta isnt scummy ATALL. Your defence of obvscum is little short of hilarious.
But i'll give you 1 shot to explain yourself:

In 100 words or less, explain why me trying to establish whether Rosso had ever played IRC Mafia before, in an attempt to assess whether it is likely that, as i had suspected, his claim had been inspired by that. Its the only place ive ever seen cult cop as a frequently occuring role. I was hoping Rosso could slip up. But, as it stands, id much rather hear from you as to why me trying to delve into this is deemed 'fishing for information'?

oh and

Vote: Rosso

I dont intend to wait a week, especially when we have more suspects coming to light.

Hammer at dawn pl0x.

BM

[Battle Mage]

yeh i see what thinktank is saying. I'm thinking that based on last nights events, we may just have the SK left. But with so many powerroles i'm not sure...
Anyway, now Rosso is dead, i think its time i reread the whole game. If we have a 3rd scarecrow, we should now have enough info to find it

BM

[Battle Mage]

This is hardly a LyLo.

Even if we do accidentally lynch town tonight

, we most likely have 1 -2 protection roles as well as the probability of there being a vig. Theres a very good probability that the town does not lose by tomorrow. A mass claim is not viable, and is not at all necessary especially considering we don't know possibly two protection roles. A Mass claim should only be done in worst case scenario because it generally backfires on the town..

FoS: SensFan

We're quite far away from a LyLo and pushing for a massclaim is a terrible move.

A mass claim is only a good idea if we have more than 1 scumbag left, which is doubtful at this point.
On the other hand, the part highlighted in red bothers me slightly.
What self respecting townie considers killing people at night? Let alone lynching them?

FoS: Thinktank

On the flipside, a mass claim could break this game open, if past experience is anything to go by.

Thoughts?

BM

[Battle Mage]

Mah, I don't think it's hardly significant, Town can't

lynch

during the Night, it's probably a mistake on terminology. ThinkTank probably meant lynching at the end of the current day...

Now, if there's a Vig (and considering the forces against the Town, it's very likely), what information can he use to kill successfully next Night? It's easy to target someone (only because you can) and kill a Townie. It must be something more than gambling. Keep the gambling for the Poker tables...

And there's this quote from aioqwe:

torn to pieces and scarecrows didn't kill tonight. Could we have 2 mafia, scarecrows and werewolves? 2 each and we've taken out one group? Or do we have 3 maf, an sk and both groups were blocked, doc'd? Or do we have something else? Reading back at stuff...

Why do you say "torn to pieces" when the narration says "kicked out of the casino"?

you answered ur own question. 'torn to pieces' didnt kill, hence it wasnt in the narration. Obviously the Vig on the other hand, did.

I dont understand post 543 atall.

I agree with Aioqwe in all except vote. I dont understand that either. 0.o

[Battle Mage]

@BM: what vote? 543 was rather pointless as it stated the obvious.

Worst case scenario is that this is our last day. Thus, it may be wise to act as though we are at lylo. Yes, we can rely on luck, however, I would rather not...

no, the penultimate sentence made literally no sense. 0.o

Meanwhile, You FoSed Thinktank for a post made by Joubert. Explanation?

ftr, i dont think this is LyLo, but i think a massclaim could be a good plan anyway for aforementioned reasons.

BM

[Battle Mage]

Ok, a few things.

1. You are the head of security? i thought we had concluded that the Vigilante was this game's 'security'?

That said, i think the claim makes sense. I cant see scum trying a No Kill gambit, and it makes sense that i was targetted after nailing Rosso.

BM

[Battle Mage]

I'm surprised at the obvious opportunism here. Give this some thought for a minute.

I replaced in yesterday and contributed significantly in nailing Rosso Carne-Scum. I'm also, as far as i'm aware, the most experienced player left in the game. So what about me being targetted seems surprising to you?

Vote: Sensfan

BM

[Battle Mage]

I'm surprised at the obvious opportunism here. Give this some thought for a minute.

I replaced in yesterday and contributed significantly in nailing Rosso Carne-Scum.

So the Scum want you dead, yes.

I'm also, as far as i'm aware, the most experienced player left in the game.

Uhhh...vIQ?

So what about me being targetted seems surprising to you?

Scum would want you dead, SK might think you bussed Scum.

Hmm yeh ViQ might be more experienced than me. I havent seen him in any other games, so i dont know. Anyway, i'm a tad confused.
If the SK thought i

bussed

scum, wouldnt he want to LYNCH me?
The way i see it, and apparently you agree with me, i'm a pretty obvious target for scum. Lucky for me, we have ViQ.

BM

[Battle Mage]

BM, you may not be scum but that doesn't stop you from being the SK. As it stands I see no fault in Viqles logic and highly doubt his claim to be false because he honestly has nothing to gain. if he falsely claims and you are town, the SK and mafia take down 2 more people, theres a good chance that there will be atleast one crosskill and then the town lynches Viqles tomorrow morning, all this is ignoring the possible vig and other power roles.

BM got anything to say before I lay a vote?

omg. I actually feel like this is a newbie game, as opposed to a mini. Listen to this carefully as i'm only going to say it once:

An SK is scum. Scum is the collective term for all anti-town roles. This is not a case of me vs ViQles. The fact is, he is almost certainly town. But that isnt a case against me, as even if we assume that ViQles is 100% town,

the odds of me being scum are still very slim

.
It really annoys me that you seem to be willing to vote despite having not grasped the fact that a JailKeeper PROTECTS AND ROLEBLOCKS. Mathematically the chance of me being protected (and hence, town) is equal to, if not greater than, the chance of me being roleblocked (scum). And thats not taking into account the logic which strongly suggests why i was targetted by the SK last night.

BM

[Battle Mage]

If the SK thought i

bussed

scum, wouldnt he want to LYNCH me?

"Hey guys! I know BM, like, handed us that Rosso lynch, but I really think he's Scum, bussing Rosso. Let's lynch him, ok?"

Are you

ACTUALLY

saying that the Town would follow that logic?

is the SK thinks its true, i dont see why you think the town would see things any differently?

BM

[Battle Mage]

In the absence of any other info though; I think our best odds of lynching scum is BM (see below).

Hmm yeh ViQ might be more experienced than me. I havent seen him in any other games, so i dont know.

I've been around longer, but BM has a lot more experience than me:

BM - vIQleS

Yeh, u've played about 25 games, ive played over 70 i think. But perhaps more relevant is the fact that i am way more over-rated than u. lol

The way I see it I either:
1. Blocked BM from killing (Scum)
or
2. Protected him from being killed (Town)
or
3. Both (Scum)

That gives him a 66% chance of being scum, whereas if we were to just lynch at random we have a 33% chance of hitting scum.

lol nice try. Unfortunately u seem to have a misguided use of statistics here. Firstly, the fact there are 3 options, does not mean they are equally weighted. The chance of me being Both targetted for NK, and the culprit of an NK, requires us to have 3 killing roles still remaining in the game, which frankly seems like a virtual impossibility atm. As such, the odds of Option 3 is about 2% tops. Now regarding the other two, lets look at the facts. Assuming we are dealing with an SK, there is an equal chance of it being each of us. As such, there's statistically a 1 in 7 chance of me committing the SK kill last night.
On the other hand, what are the odds of me being targetted last night? When i've been an SK in the past, i aim to take out the players who lead the town, and actively hunt scum. Hell it can even be a good idea to take people out simply because they are experienced. So, i ask again, use ur head here. What are the odds of me being the target of a kill last night, because as far as i can see, any other conclusion is pretty damn illogical at this point.

Oh btw, ViQ, did you claim targets from previous nights? Roleblockers are confirmable, although sadly, i cant confirm you.

BM

[Battle Mage]

AWESOME! Nice work Sens! I thought you had your work cut out, but you came through.

BM

[Battle Mage]

Trying something different? Like being a dickhead and deliberately playing to hurt the side you're on?

You suck, and you can count on never being in a game with me ever again.

Damn! I'm glad you cleared that up, because I wouldn't want to get stuck in another game with a player like you either.

alright lads, lets chill out yeah.

I may be slightly biased, but tbh, i thought GS's PR made the game exciting. In fact, it was partly due to all that intrigue that i offered to replace in, in the first place. Granted, it didnt exactly help the town, but i dont think it was catastrophic either, and wouldnt have made much diffierence in the end.

BM

[Battle Mage]

retracting the PR wouldve been almost certainly successful in getting you lynched.

BM