Mini 550: KSFV: Game Over

[SensFan]

Vote: ryan

Not random.

[SensFan]

I'm happy to share reasoning, I just thought I'd check for a reaction from ryan first.

Anyway, I think its a load of crap to be even thinking of a jester at this stage. Honestly, it looks like you're trying to set a precedent for scummy behavior to be left alone, fearing a jester. You should be voting the person you feel is scummiest, not worrying about whether they are "trying" to be scummy.

[SensFan]

EBWODP: VI is Village Idiot, I presume.

[SensFan]

Does a jester need to be lynched to win?

And a jester win doesn't affect our town win does it?

Or are we just going to be mean and not lynch him?

A Jester has a win condition that is satisfied if he gets lynched. In a mini, lynching the Jester almost always ends the game.

[SensFan]

that's your new name mr gnome it all...

It's hardly new... Check my joined date. People have been shortening it to just gnome since my first game.

I'm so newb just making a joke

I support sensfan's vote. However, I want to see his reason. Ryan in my eyes has responded enough. Until you present the evidence against him.

Major FoS: aioqwe

, read post 32. More importantly, why would you support my vote if you didn't know the reasoning?

[SensFan]

You, sir, are right. I am terribly sorry, I was working under the completely ridiculous assumption that perhaps he was a scum, trying to look too scummy, digging for the reaction you had to his post. How I failed to realize that scum are by definition stupid, and will only be SOMEWHAT scummy, not overly scummy. Furthermore, his join date is so obviously misleading, and he cannot be a newb, so I'm wrong on that account as well. Boy, I sure am pretty poor at this game, what with expecting scum to be dumb, and everyone to always play perfectly, never making mistakes.

Again, my apologies. I see now that him being a jester is, in fact, a given. I would vote for him, if it weren't for the fact that I was so humbled by your amazing arguments that I've currently forgotten how to change my vote.

[SensFan]

I'm not narrow-minded at all. In fact, I'm rather open-minded to ideas and all, but this is just too much. I severely doubt that a jester would be so mind-bogglingly obvious about trying to get lynched, and think it even less likely that there is a jester in this game. Jester is a role that is practically bastard-modding in and of itself, and I strongly doubt the mod would put one in a mini. I would equate the chance of there being a Jester to the odds that the Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup this year. To be honest, I'm willing to lynch the scummiest player, every day, and risk losing to a Jester. I've probably played in 20+ games on this site, and have read even more. Guess how many games I know of have been lost by the lynching of a jester? If you picked 1, you guessed too high...

[SensFan]

I fail to see why you are concerned about the possibility of a Jester. With every lynch the town makes, there is a chance of losing to a jester. Guess what, there is almost never talk of a jester. It looks to me like you want to have an "out" from voting the player that is scummiest.

As for the role claims, I would assume he is just either being comedic, or being dumb. This is, early day 1, after all. Normally, I would be making funny posts, too, but I happened to see something you posted, and it looked very suspicious.

[SensFan]

No, that's perfectly normal behavior. Attributing it to a rare, bastard-moddy, overly-scummy role right off the bat rubbed me the wrong way.

[SensFan]

Just to clarify, the vote is because you feel I'm being too adamant in my attack on ryan, correct?

[SensFan]

Joubert, you say Jesters DO exist. As I said a few posts back, I've played over 20 games on MS, likely read about 30 more. Never have I seen a Jester.

[SensFan]

Joubert, you say Jesters DO exist. As I said a few posts back, I've played over 20 games on MS, likely read about 30 more. Never have I seen a Jester.

I can't link it (because it's ongoing) but a current game I'm modding HAS a jester in it, they are not that uncommon. Also I never said that we couldn't have scum pretending to be a jester but to do it that early I found strange and didn't put much weight into it. Scum normally sit back and let the town pick eachother off and than they swoop in when they find something somewhat questionable and take it up a notch and paint that townie to be scum.............hmmm that sounds familiar doesn't it SensFan?

If you're implying that I "sat back", I would disagree quite a bit. I accused you on page 1.

Also, you putting a bad role in a game you're modding won't convince me at all that this game is even remotely likely to have a jester.

[SensFan]

Yes an accusation on Page 1..........BRILLIANT approach.

I see what you did there.

You first claimed it is a scummy move to sit back, and then attack a townie. Then you accused me of being scummy for launching an attack on you page 1 when I saw something scummy.

So, which is it? Do scum attack early in the day, or sit back and wait?

[SensFan]

So, which is it? Do scum attack early in the day, or sit back and wait?

I don't know SensFan, what are you currently doing?

Going by your join date, you are a pretty experienced player, and you know better than to choose a target to latch on to, and then find reasons that person would be scum. Unless, of course, you know I'm not scum...

[SensFan]

Vicious?

When you get around to doing your readthough, mind explaining that a little bit more?

[SensFan]

Post Restriction. It's when the mod gives you a role, but includes a restriction or quota that you have to fill in your posts. Failure to comply usually results in modkill.

[SensFan]

Good post. While I have no issues with most of what you said, I thought I'd clear up that last point. As I said (you may have missed it), the vote it because I felt it was quite scummy of ryan to be worried so much about a possible jester on page 1 that he wasn't voting the person he found scummiest.

Just one question: Do you see ryan and I as being possible buddies, or one (and only one) of us being scum?

[SensFan]

Alright, thanks vIQ.

Oh, and I'm not "responding" to your points against me, as I see them more as small notes to look back on later. Correct me if I'm wrong, or there;s something in particular you want me to address.

[SensFan]

I notice that you want us to mass-claim, while conveniently not putting yourself down for a role.

[SensFan]

So we have a semi-smalltown setup...

<SNIP>

Anyone want to confirm my hunch above?

Alright, so you want us to claim whether GS correctly labeled our role?

With that said...I'd rather not mass claim unless you can convince me that it would significantly benefit our town.

Or not...

[SensFan]

If you read the context of the post you quoted, you would see that he asked GS to give the Town info through his claims.

[SensFan]

GS knows all the roles, but can't vote or write sensibly!!!!

@ GS: Post something about a carnival if Ryan or Sensfan is scum. Post something about a Prison if neither is scum. Post something about a the Buddha if I'm off the mark!

Emphasis mine.

[SensFan]

Sensfan:70% - A non random vote on page 2 with no explanation until pressed. Then hard bickering with Ryan.

You're right. I waited 6 whole posts and almost 2 hours to post my explanation. Then I gave a perfectly satisfactory reasoning for why I delayed a short while.

[SensFan]

The only time I have talked to/about ryan since Sunday is when he not only appeared not to read the context of a quote, but then randomly accused me of being scum for no real reason, while STILL not going back to read. Even then, I only pointed out what what previously posted, not attacking ryan at all.

[SensFan]

So you don't think Ryan is scum?

I didn't say that. I would put him above the average, but not a solid "yes", off the top of my head.

[SensFan]

GS:

If you can do anything other than claim, put the name of a player in this game in your next post.

If you must only claim, but can choose your claim, claim something beginning with any letter other than [A/B/C/D/E/F/G/H/I/J/K/L/N/O/P/Q/R/S/T/U/V/W/X/Y/Z] in your next post.

If you can only claim, and have no choice on the claim, do not comply with either of the above statements in your next post.

[SensFan]

I don't want any discussion on my post until after he claims. I'll explain why afterwards, but I have a good reason.

[SensFan]

95% sure that GS is unable to do anything but claim, and has no choice in his claims. I really don't get that, unless the Mod gave him a list of claims to claim, in order...

[SensFan]

ryan - Well, according to my form of questioning, GS showed that he could only claim, and had no choice as to what he could claim. I even phrased it in such a way that I never gave him any specifics on what to claim.

Unity - A Cult Leader chooses someone to recruit every night. Anyone recruited becomes pro-Cult instead of pro-Town. If the majority of the living people are pro-Cult, the Cult wins.

[SensFan]

So how would we be able to establish the identity of the cult leader through a mass-claim?

That, I don't know.

[SensFan]

So how does the cult thing work? All I've ever seen is town and scum.

Ryan, I didnt bring up Cult. Unity wanted an explanation on how Cults worked. Next time, READ THE CONTEXT.

[SensFan]

I have no experience with Cults, and so am not getting Rosso's pseudo-claim...

[SensFan]

Well, I still haven't clued on to any claim you made.

[SensFan]

SF- some people have suggested him being scummy/ partner... I want to look into this a bit more

So you find me suspicious because everyone else does?

[SensFan]

Personally I want a post from GS indicating whether we are supposed to make something from his posts

In addition to any other requests made:

GS, if you are giving us information with your posts, your next post should contain anything but an even number of words.

GS, if you are not giving us information with your posts, your next post should contain anything but an odd number of words.

[SensFan]

*sigh*

Well, never mind that last request, then.

FoS: armlx

for assuming I have no reason for phrasing them like I did.

So yeah, I will not be taking any information from the number of words in GS' next post.

[SensFan]

CNUSVRPEOO

I can't make head's or tails of those letters, what about the rest of you?

GS:

If we are supposed to find information in your posts, please let your next post have anything but an odd number of words.
If we are not supposed to find information in your posts, please let your next post have anything but an even number of words.

If the letters I quoted have relevance to the player names, please begin your next post with any letter other than [A/B/C/D/E/F/G/H/I/K/L/M/N/O/P/Q/R/S/T/U/V/W/X/Y/Z]
If the letters I quoted have relevance to the role names, please begin your next post with any letter other than [A/B/C/D/E/F/G/H/I/J/K/L/N/O/P/Q/R/S/T/U/V/W/X/Y/Z]
If the letters I quoted have relevance to something else, please begin your next post with any letter other than [A/B/C/D/E/F/G/H/I/J/K/L/M/N/O/P/Q/R/S/U/V/W/X/Y/Z]
If the letters I quoted have no relevance, please begin your next post with any letter other than [B/C/D/E/F/G/H/I/J/K/L/M/N/O/P/Q/R/S/T/U/V/W/X/Y/Z]



I want

NO

other requests of GS, or discussion of my request until he has posted. Thanks.

[SensFan]

Unity:

*sigh*

Well, never mind that last request, then.

FoS: armlx

for assuming I have no reason for phrasing them like I did.

So yeah, I will not be taking any information from the number of words in GS' next post.

I repeat, it is IMPERATIVE that no one else makes any requests to GS, or SO MUCH AS MENTIONS my last post until GS has posted.

[SensFan]

Well, according to that post, GS has no information in his posts, including the capital letters...

ryan, since GS has now posted, want to elaborate?

[SensFan]

Still don't see why you need to post the requests so cryptically.

I had (have) a theory that he can include in his posts anything the Town has asked him for. So I didn't ask that he include any specific things, just that he not include certain things.

[SensFan]

Town describes all players currently in the game. Of those they are split into pro-town and anti-town.

[SensFan]

You asked for clarification on what I meant by "Town". I meant exactly what armlx said. If you want my own words, than by Town I mean "Any person currently alive, that is part of the town of Vegas. Alignment has no relation with regards to who makes up the Town."

[SensFan]

Yeah, in all the cult talks I had forgot about my vote on ryan, but his recent behaviour has really bothered me. Happy with my vote right now.

[SensFan]

Claiming you are town isn't a scumtell.

Not sure about that part. Presumably, everyone will claim to be Town, and so it seems pointless, unless you are trying to reinforce the message for some reason. One possible reason would be that you are scum trying too hard to blend in. It's far from a strong tell, but I still think it can be a weak indication.

[SensFan]

Greasy Spot:

If you are calling BS on ryan's claim, let your next post have anything but capital letters.

If you are giving some other sort of information, let your next post have anything but lower-case letters.

Code: Select all

A - capital
a - lower-case

[SensFan]

Greasy Spot:

If you are calling BS on ryan's claim, let your next post have anything but capital letters.

i am the cashier. i control all the money but it isn't mine.

Looks like one of ryan and GS is scum.

PPE: aioqwe, look at the two posts I quoted.

[SensFan]

GS:

If you are willing to put your life on the line and say that ryan is lying, your VERY NEXT POST should have anything but a capital letter.

[SensFan]

Holy crap, ryan, I don't think I've ever seen worse pro-Town play, if indeed you are Town.

You have a duty to do the best you can for your alliance. Unless you are Jester or Scum, speeding up your lynch will not help the Town in any way. Therefore, a Town member should never purposely get themselves killed.

[SensFan]

EBWODP:

For the record, I do not want to see anyone unvoting ryan due to his recent, erratic, behaviour.

[SensFan]

EBWODP:

For the record, I do not want to see anyone unvoting ryan due to his recent, erratic, behaviour.

Fair enough, than I self hammer in 30 minutes.

Empty threat.

[SensFan]

For the record, I do not want to see anyone unvoting ryan due to his recent, erratic, behaviour.

What's that? You think you can decide that on-the-fly? This affirmation alone makes you suspicious...

I am stating my personal opinion. I didn't want anyone taking the bait ryan put out there.

SensFan, about the posts from GS you quoted, do you realize that if GS is Scum, of course he will answer your plead. To cause Ryan to be lynched. OR, GS is even more PRed than we think. OR, he's a bad Town player. OR, etc...

I'll take a 1-for-1 Townie:Scum trade ANY day.

Comments in bold.

[SensFan]

GS:

If you are willing to put your life on the line and say that ryan is lying, your VERY NEXT POST should have anything but a capital letter.

i am the limousine driver. i see all my passengers, but they don't see me.

[SensFan]

this isn't worth my time to try and convince thick headed jackasses anymore of me being innocent.

I'd appreciate if you kept your arguments from being personal.

Thanks

[SensFan]

Unity was killed. Pay attention.

[SensFan]

Mod: Can we get a prod on Gnome?

[SensFan]

BattleMage usually posts more frequently.

That's odd that he's continuing Mr_Gnome_It_All's pace of posting infrequently in this game.

see previous post. I replaced into 2 games simultaneously, and i decided rather than confuse myself by reading both at the same time, ill read the shortest one first, and then carry on with this one. I would say this game requires a fair bit more logical thought.

BM

So you're reading the short one, but still managed to pop in here as soon as your name was mentioned?

[SensFan]

aioqwe, are you actually saying you think its realistic that there is both a scumgroup AND a cult in a Mini?

FoS: aioqwe

[SensFan]

Because that is absolutely ridiculous. A 12-person game with (at least) 2 scums AND a Cult Leader is probably the most broken game I've ever heard of. The Town stands no chance whatsoever.

It sounds to me like you are trying to defend RC.

[SensFan]

im gonna get really pissed if this turned out to be a damn bastard mod role.

On top of everything else, that really sealed it for me. Not only is his role improbable, but now he's suggesting we have a bastard mod?

Vote: RC

[SensFan]

6. armlx, Surveillance System, Tracker,

stuffed full of straw

Night 1

4. Unity,

Scarecrow Goon

, torn to pieces Night 1

Emphasis mine.

Are you still actually implying that the straw relates to a Cult?

[SensFan]

BM, just in case you didn't notice, he has almost 2 years here at MS...

[SensFan]

Sorry, but why is my name grouped in there?

[SensFan]

BM, he proposed a 3-man group along with an SK.

[SensFan]

Comments in bold.

- I think SensFan is Scarecrow scum for his aggressive behavior toward ryan,

I was very strongly opinioned that there was no Jester, and he was equally sold on us worrying about one.

for directing Greasy Spot excessively with confusing questions

I don't think the questions were confusing at all.

and asking Greasy Spot to put his life on the line in determining ryan's alignment

He was claiming ryan was Guilty, and I wanted to know if that was a hunch or if he was positive about it.

[SensFan]

I think we need to mass claim, since we could be in LyLo.

Assuming 1 Mafia 1 SK 1 Vig:

1/1/4 -> Lynch Town - 1/1/3 -> Double Nightkills on Town 1/1/1 (Town loses)

[SensFan]

Did you

SEE

the math I posted above?

[SensFan]

If we lynch incorrectly today, it is possible that the Town will lose overnight. Therefore, the Town must lynch correctly today, lest we leave the game in the hands of the scum.

[SensFan]

thinktank, there is a possibility that the Town will wake up tomorrow morning having lost. Why do you refuse to call this LyLo?

[SensFan]

Then does that mean you are an sk?

Pay attention. vIQ claimed Jailkeeper.

And yeah, the logic makes sense.

Vote: BM

, the Jailkeep claim actually does a realistic job of explaining the missing 2 kills.

[SensFan]

I'm surprised at the obvious opportunism here. Give this some thought for a minute.

I replaced in yesterday and contributed significantly in nailing Rosso Carne-Scum.

So the Scum want you dead, yes.

I'm also, as far as i'm aware, the most experienced player left in the game.

Uhhh...vIQ?

So what about me being targetted seems surprising to you?

Scum would want you dead, SK might think you bussed Scum.

[SensFan]

If the SK thought i

bussed

scum, wouldnt he want to LYNCH me?

"Hey guys! I know BM, like, handed us that Rosso lynch, but I really think he's Scum, bussing Rosso. Let's lynch him, ok?"

Are you

ACTUALLY

saying that the Town would follow that logic?

[SensFan]

Night 1: Sensfan

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that proves I'm not SK, right?

[SensFan]

Do you actually think the scum will identify themselves?

[SensFan]

There are 4 of us.

At least 1 Tiger Scum is around.
At least 1 Scarecrow Scum is around.

Already that means a 3/2/7 split, which is pretty unbalanced imo. Are you actually suggesting it might be a 4/2/6 or 3/3/6 split?

[SensFan]

Assuming 2 (separate) Scum, 2 Town, a NL is bad. The odds of a cross-fire decrease dramatically if there are 2 Town, rather than 1, and yet the Town still auto-loses if a single Town is shot.

[SensFan]

Should the Vig claim? What about the other Town? That could potentially decrease he odds of hitting scum.

[SensFan]

Assuming 1 Vig, 1 Townie, I think both should claim. That way, either we confirm one of them, or else each Town will know the identity of 1 of the Scums.

[SensFan]

thinktank, you are 100% wrong...

The only way Town can win is if the Mafia cross-kill each other. The best statistical chances for a cross-kill occur if there are as few non-Mafia as possible. Therefore, lynching Town is the best bet.

Under the previous assumption, the Vig is essentially powerless, since the Town only wins if the Mafia kill each other anyways. By having both the Vig and Townie claim, the Mafia will be forced to claim something, and will likely each claim a different role, to avoid giving the Town a confirmed innocent. Assuming there are 2 claimed Townies, and 2 claimed Vigs, the Vig will know one of the Scum, and the Townie will know the other. It will also help ensure that we lynch a Town today.

[SensFan]

Assuming claims are 2Townie/2Vig
*Lynch scummiest Vig
**If Scum, Vig has a 1/2 chance of winning the game with his NK
**If Town, 1/2 chance of Mafia crossfire
---50% (1/2) chance of Town win---

Assuming claims are 1Townie/3Vig
*Lynch scummiest Vig
**If Scum, we win after Vig crosskills with other Scum.
**If Town, Scum know each other. WIFOM mind games regarding crossfire begin.
---83% (5/6) chance of Town win---

Assuming claims are 3Townie/1Vig
*Lynch scummiest Townie
**If Scum, Vig has 1/2 chance of crossfiring for the win.
**If Town, Scum know each other. WIFOM mind games regarding crossfire begin. Vig has 1/2 chance of crossfiring, so everyone dies.
---50% (1/2) chance of Town win---

Assuming No Lynch
*Scum have 1/9 chance of crossfire. Failing that, there is a 2/27 chance that one Scum kills the other, with the Vig killing the surviving scum.
---19% (5/27) chance of a Town win---

Assuming unclaimed lynch
*If Vig, Scum don't know each other, need a crossfire for a Town win
*If Townie, Town wins unless the same person gets shot twice
*If Scum, Vig has a 1/2 chance of winning the game with his NK
---38% (3/8) chance of a Town win---




As shown, with a mass-claim, we have at least a 50% chance of winning. Without a claim, our chances max out at 38%. No Lynching leaves us with terrible odds.

[SensFan]

I'd rather claim last, obviously, but the above order is fine.

[SensFan]

Think, what is your role name?

I suggest that Aioqwe goes next... Just to mix the cards a bit...

Fine by me. I'll wait for him, assuming no objections.

[SensFan]

Bartender, Vanilla Town.

[SensFan]

Not exactly what I expected but eh... SF and Jourb are scum (they stole role names from GS). I'd rather lynch jourb first due to his general lurky behavior and SF seems to contribute more (on the off chance that it was 3/1 or 2/2 for the scum).

Seeing as GS claimed everything under the Sun, you don't think it's possible that he got a couple right?

[SensFan]

Not exactly what I expected but eh... SF and Jourb are scum (they stole role names from GS). I'd rather lynch jourb first due to his general lurky behavior and SF seems to contribute more (on the off chance that it was 3/1 or 2/2 for the scum).

Seeing as GS claimed everything under the Sun, you don't think it's possible that he got a couple right?

If there is a tweak in our interpretation of the set-up I think your town. Otherwise knowing I claimed 'vanilla' and 2 others claimed 'vanilla' the two others are scum.
On that note, GS hasn't claimed anything correctly. From scums POV tigers and scarecrows aren't claimable so they have to look into dead people's names and in this game GS provided some very plausible names. It is possible that he accurately guessed or by some property of his role derived a correct role name, however I think the fact that 2/3 of our 'vanilla' claims are from the list warrants some suspicion.

Meh, if you think I had time to reread through all of GS' posts overnight, you must think I have way too much time on my hands.

[SensFan]

Whats a one shot commuter?

Actually, that's an excellent point. A quick search on the Wiki tells me that a commuter is, essentially, a hider that only hides every other Night. Wouldn't the role be much more likely to be a 1-shot hider, than a 1-shot commuter?

[SensFan]

Oh, and WIFOM games aside, I definately wouldn't have spent a while coming up with that huge stat block if I were Scum. Not to mention, based on that stat block, a Vig claim would have given me a much higher chance of winning, if Scum.

[SensFan]

Oh, and one more thing. NO ONE COMMENT ON THIS BUT THINKTANK.

Why didn't you kill last Night, if you were Vig?

[SensFan]

Meh, after his less than stellar reasoning, combined with the obvious Freudian slip, I'm starting to wonder if maybe somehow there is no Vig. This is a theme game, after all...

[SensFan]

I know I'm town, which is more than I can say of any of you. From my perspective, me going last reduces the chance of Scum going last to 0. Note that I still agreed to abide by the order.

[SensFan]

Alright, I'm at a conference today, expect content tonight. My notes are so

messy

, I'm at my

wits

end regarding this game.

[SensFan]

So SF, can you divulge any flavor?

Since we claimed the same role, with a different name, I'd rather not answer this until after Joubert has posted. If you largely disagree, I can post before him, I guess.

[SensFan]

Just making sure he has no other flavour.

[SensFan]

You are <role name>. How you got yourself into this

mess

you'll never know. Unfortunately, you don't have any skills which are helpful to the current situation. However, you do have your vote and your

wits

. Use these to help get rid of the scum. You are a

Vanilla Townie

.

You win when all threats to the town are eliminated, and at least one pro-town player remains alive. Please confirm in thread or via PM.

Alright, I'm at a conference today, expect content tonight. My notes are so

messy

, I'm at my

wits

end regarding this game.

Emphasis mine.

I would have expected Joubert to react to me using the key words in his PM.

[SensFan]

fail to see why a townie would be so adamant about going last and delaying.

fail to see where either of us were adamant or delayed the game.

[SensFan]

We have a vig right?

Likely, but not guaranteed. For all we know, it could be some theme mechanic that is kicking people out...

[SensFan]

You still haven't given the flavour for your role pm.

I've shown you the EXACT contents of my PM...

[SensFan]

Actually, after thinking it through, I don't think it matter whether the Vig shoots or not...

[SensFan]

Am I the only one thinking there might not actually be a Vig?

[SensFan]

Meh.

As Town, I have no reason to lie about my role. As Scum, I would have to be stupid to claim Vig last. Then, even if I can get the real one lynched, I am 100% guaranteed to be shot by the other Scum, meaning I lose no matter what.

Therefore, I doubt any of the 3 of us will 'switch' our claims here.

[SensFan]

Meh, I'll

Vote: Joubert

, since he has used falselogic all day.

[SensFan]

Great game, all! Thanks, pete, for the great modding job!

So...am I the only one not seeing why Greasy faked a ridiculous PR?

Oh, and my debate over possible Jesterness was totally honest, alignment notwithstanding. Post-game, what's the opinions?

[SensFan]

Yeah, Greasy, in addition to what vIQles said, I'd like to add this. Seing as it was a 7-3-2 set-up, you don't think that just MAYBE your role was supposed to help balance out the set-up?

[SensFan]

I think the game must be fun, first of all...

What if my idea of fun as Scum is to out my partners in the first post I make?

[SensFan]

I blame Ryan. That is all.

On that note, my entire argument with ryan was entirely genuine.