Mini 550: KSFV: Game Over

[Joubert]

And as for Greasy Spot being a jester... This is Vegas. It could be possible.

Yeah, he may just be the very incarnation of the Joker card...

Vote: Greasy Spot

, for having the funniest role...

[Joubert]

Probably refers to the initial random voting at the beginning of a game...

R

andom

V

ote

S

ession, or something like that...

Anyways, I'm not very comfortable with the Ryan/SensFan altercation and what ensued. Ryan evoqued the possibility of a Jester, and Aioqwe votes him (not a FoS, but a full-fledged vote) for that. The thing is, Jesters DO exist. Unless we are 100% sure there's no Jester in this game, thinking there could be one is not out of the question...

[Joubert]

Maybe he's actually trying to say something useful through his possible post restriction...
Let's decode his claims carefully...

[Joubert]

Well, I think Lloyd got an interesting point here. Maybe Greasy Spot must react to the other player's messages and/or behavior. Meanwhile, I still tend to be on Ryan's side right now. Anyone accusing a player for thinking there could be a Jester is suspicious in my eye...

[Joubert]

"I see non-sleepy people" may refer to lurkers...

[Joubert]

Wouldn't that be sleepy than? Non sleepy would=active, wouldn't it?

Then, maybe it's because there's no lurkers...

[Joubert]

My best guess would be that Greasy Spot must reveal all roles in the game in the form of riddles...

[Joubert]

Gnome and Jourb get suspicion points lack of posts.

Arrr, dammit, here's my post. AAaahhh !!! Two A's, two a's and 3 h's... And 3 !'s...

No, really, I think Lloyd's intentions are good, but there's no clue as if Greasy Spot can actually deliver anything pertinent. It could be completely random, like it could be significant. Both are possible. Can RC's no capitals post restriction lead to some useful clue? Probably not...

And there's still that "Ryan is scummy" trend that lurks incomprehensibly. I'd point fingers at Aioqwe for that. And I'll unvote because my vote on Greasy Spot is still a random one...

Unvote

FoS: Aioqwe

[Joubert]

Okay, let's see what we can "deduce" from these affirmations. I quote only those of which I can guess on...

I can't vote during the day but if you tell who you want killed at night I will kill them for you.

Must be a special variant of a Vig...

I hold all the cards but I can't play

Very probably the Mod...

I make people do things they don't remember they did at night

Kind of Hypnotist...

One of my customers just won the Jackpot. He can not get his money until tomorrow.

If it's in-game kind of tomorrow, then maybe someone will receive a special power at the dawn of Day 2...

I control the flow of the game.

Right now, it seems Greasy Spot's role taking much of the attention, but it's only because of the other players' reactions, so...

I went to school to learn everything I know. I see non-sleepy people.

The Doc? Mafia Doc? Beats me...

I know all the routes but nobody knows me.

The Bus Driver?

I am never the same person twice.

Some sort of Jack of All Trades? Or maybe a special role where the power changes every day...

I watch people but nobody sees me because I don't exist.

A ghost...

I get rid of the problem people, but only at night.

Assassin... Serial Killer... Or plain Mafia Goon...

I watch everybody, but someone always watches me.

Maybe some kind of Mafia Traitor...

[Joubert]

Word Magic (with the ABLE list) found nothing above eight letters...

8-letter Anagrams with CNUSVRPEOO:

CORNEOUS
CROUPONS
UNCOVERS

But it could be more than one word...

[Joubert]

Got another interesting anagram with the same letters:

CNUSVRPEOO -> NERVOUS COP

[Joubert]

Dammit, that's nuts, there must be AT LEAST one Scumbag in the Ryan bandwagon right now. As far as we know, he's accused for thinking GS could be Jester and not much else. Not only it's largely insufficient for a complete vote, it's not even a good reason, since Jesters (yes I repeat) DO exist...

However, as someone suggested, it may be a good thing to ignore GS for now (but keep the suspicions, if any) and wait till tomorrow...

[Joubert]

Vote: armlx

, for unjustified voting...

[Joubert]

Armlx, since when OMGUSing someone is considered a hard-steel Scum tell?
Hmmm, I don't like this guy, so he must be Scum. This is not a justification...

[Joubert]

So I claim and still die? Figures

Sounds familiar. It seems like everytime someone claims Town, it always turns out to be useless...
Well, if Ryan is lynched, at least we'll get one Scum pinned down and possibly another one with heavy suspicion...

[Joubert]

For the record, I do not want to see anyone unvoting ryan due to his recent, erratic, behaviour.

What's that? You think you can decide that on-the-fly? This affirmation alone makes you suspicious...

FoS: SensFan

SensFan, about the posts from GS you quoted, do you realize that if GS is Scum, of course he will answer your plead. To cause Ryan to be lynched. OR, GS is even more PRed than we think. OR, he's a bad Town player. OR, etc...

ReFoS: SensFan

[Joubert]

VIQleS, you may be right about defensiveness vs defend oneself, but it's hard to defend against thin air. When vacuum is in Power Play, you can hardly win. I'd be defensive too if I had a few people on me with almost no reasons, especially Armlx, and with nothing happening after a claim. By the way, GS's pseudo-para-counter-claim was anything but convincing, mostly because of the lack of serious. The joke is funny, but for the sake of the game, it is hardly receivable...

[Joubert]

I think he needs to be replaced...

[Joubert]

So just to be perfectly clear... What is a Nervous Cop? How do the results appear for each type of alignment?

[Joubert]

Well, the Cult and the Mafia are two different teams...
It's not like they are all against the Town as a whole...

[Joubert]

Battle Mage, maybe I didn't understand everything since the last 10 posts, but it seems you're imagining things here. Let's take Lloyd's assumptions:

- stuffed full of straw: Probably by Mafia Scarecrows
- kicked out of the casino: Probably by Vig Bouncer
- torn to pieces: Probably by SK White Tiger (from Siegfried and Roy)

So there would be a Mafia group, a SK and a Vig on the Town side. I can't see anything wrong with that kind of power roles mix...

3 scum in a 12 player game is balanced. Maybe 4 is a possibility, but a cult and 2 anti-town killing groups?

First of all, I don't think a lone Serial Killer should be considered a "group", and he's not anti-Town, but more anti-all. And the Cult is not strictly anti-Town either, since they could go against the Mafia also. Unless I missed something about roles descriptions, I don't see anything that could make the game awfully broken...

[Joubert]

Are the Cults automatically anti-Town? I've read in the Wiki that a Cult can be anti-Town or not. And the Vig kill is a pro-Town kill...

[Joubert]

Im not sure what you are getting at here. How does me pushing for a scum lynch make me scum?

It's pretty much begging the question, there, BM...

[Joubert]

I'd say the sentence

"you can give me the answer im looking for"

is not necessarily a Scum tell, but it's still an unresolvable question nevertheless. It could translate to "admit you're Scum and I'll believe what you say", which doesn't make sense for obvious reasons...

[Joubert]

Mah, I don't think it's hardly significant, Town can't

lynch

during the Night, it's probably a mistake on terminology. ThinkTank probably meant lynching at the end of the current day...

Now, if there's a Vig (and considering the forces against the Town, it's very likely), what information can he use to kill successfully next Night? It's easy to target someone (only because you can) and kill a Townie. It must be something more than gambling. Keep the gambling for the Poker tables...

And there's this quote from aioqwe:

torn to pieces and scarecrows didn't kill tonight. Could we have 2 mafia, scarecrows and werewolves? 2 each and we've taken out one group? Or do we have 3 maf, an sk and both groups were blocked, doc'd? Or do we have something else? Reading back at stuff...

Why do you say "torn to pieces" when the narration says "kicked out of the casino"?

[Joubert]

Ah okay... I thought you were referring only to the last events. So basically, we have seen 4 types of deaths... Here are my guesses:

Stuffed full of straw -> Mafia kill...
Torn to pieces -> Serial Killer kill...
Lynched -> Town kill...
Kicked out of the casino -> Vig kill...

If this is correct, it would mean the SK and Mafia couldn't kill during Night 2. Either the target was protected, or the killer was blocked. With all these power roles, the possibility of 2 anti-Town factions is not likely at all. Unless we consider Serial Killer a "faction", which I don't...

[Joubert]

My father is stronger than u, lol woot, whatever, Red Herring. Seriously, BM, your experience doesn't make you more or less Scum, it's not related. You're also implying that the odds of you being targetted last night are low, but I don't see why. Your sole argument is based our your own past experience...

The chance of me being Both targetted for NK, and the culprit of an NK, requires us to have 3 killing roles still remaining in the game, which frankly seems like a virtual impossibility atm

Ah?... Virtual impossibility? One Mafia, one SK and one Vig. Seems very possible to me. I think vIQleS' idea is most likely accurate. Of course, theoretically speaking, nothing is 100% sure, but that's the nature of lynch: you choose the one who is more likely to be Scum. Besides, BM's logic in respond to the plan seems flawed...

Vote: Battle Mage

[Joubert]

Why do you want to vote yourself? I'm not following at all...

[Joubert]

So, aioqwe, if I understand correctly, it would be more advantageous for the Town to have only 1 Town go into the Night. Right? Mathematically speaking, it looks correct, but is it safe to assume that there is 1 Scum A and 1 Scum B? How do you figure that? If it's not exact, then we may end up making a useless (and possibly fatal) sacrifice...

[Joubert]

Assuming 2 (separate) Scum, 2 Town, a NL is bad. The odds of a cross-fire decrease dramatically if there are 2 Town, rather than 1, and yet the Town still auto-loses if a single Town is shot.

I understand the maths point of view correctly, but as you said, it's just assuming. I'm not saying a 2-3-7 or even 3-3-6 setup is impossible, but the original assumption from Aioqwe is not fool-proof either. I don't think having two factions of 3 or 2 people is necessarily unbalanced, because of the possible cross-fires. If we were more certain about the possibility of two 3-men (or Tiger, whatever) factions, then I would agree with the maths...

Aioqwe's suggestion seems oddly pro-Town, so ironically, letting him be killed would be bad in the long run...

[Joubert]

That's right, but having 1 Townie and one Townie Vig makes a difference in the equation...
Although we may just end up with more casualties, so it's not necessarily good...
It's a shame we have to rely on probabilities, but we have to choose according to the most profitable scenario nevertheless...

[Joubert]

I also gave it a thought previously, seems like the mass claim is a good choice...

I am a Blackjack Dealer. I'm a Vanilla Townie.

I suggest that Aioqwe goes next... Just to mix the cards a bit...

[Joubert]

So Aioqwe, you think a Bartender and a Blackjack Dealer makes less sense in a casino setting than a "Elvis Impersonator"? You may as well have stepped into your own trap with this post. It's fairly easy to come up with any plausible role when you have to invent one...

FoS: Aioqwe

[Joubert]

ThinkTank, keep in mind that the hypothesis that states there are 2 factions remaining (thus 3 killing roles) is not garanteed. When you made your misskills, what were your reasons for targeting each player in the first place? Were you sure of your shot at that time?

By the way, the Commuter is not quite like a Hider. It's a 100% sure protection during Night, involving only the player himself, and in this scenario, it can be used only once...

[Joubert]

I can barely detail my role description. I'm a Townie, I can vote during the day, and that's all...

I observed this sequence of related comments here, by Aioqwe and SensFan (my emphasis in bold) :

claim time
tank, jourb, sf,

me

.

I'd rather

claim last

, obviously, but the above order is fine.

Please detail your role flavors. Jourb first, I'll go second, SF can go last (I'd rather

go last

but honestly from an outsider's perspective I'm not townie enough to make such a request)

You both wanted to go last, Aioqwe twice, is there any reason for that?

[Joubert]

I can't quote anything, so no, there's nothing more than already said...

[Joubert]

No. I'm a Blackjack Dealer. I'm a Vanilla Townie. My only power is my vote during the day...
What's in for you, Aioqwe? Do you have any special flavor because of your role?

[Joubert]

Aioqwe, we have yet to see your reasons...

The only thing I got to chew on is the desire to go last in the claiming sequences...

- Aioqwe proposed a claim order and put himself last.
- Then SF expressed his desire to go last, but he did accept the order proposed.
- Thinktank accepted right away and claimed.
- Then Joubert claimed, and proposed that Aioqwe go next.
- In the meanwhile, SF asked more detail to Thinktank's claim.
- Thinktank detailed his claim.
- Then Aioqwe claimed.
- And SF claimed at last.
- Aioqwe made a bold statement about claims "taken" from GS.

Asking to go last makes sense if you are Town, but noone knows beforehand. It's the syndrome of not having your glasses when you look for them. At least, asking other people's opinion on the claim order would show a minimum of good faith...

Later, Aioqwe asked that we detail our claims (again, he wanted to go last). As a very broad guess, I could presume Aioqwe did want to follow on the flavors to pin someone down somehow, because he would think the flavor is not detailed enough compared to his, or following on another theory about GS's claims in the beginning of the game...

And again, on post 626, Aioqwe asks for details on my flavor, and makes sure to go after me. And then, post 633, SF also wants to go after me. I can see a pattern here...

[Joubert]

Oh boy, I didn't expect to see something hidden that way. Sorry, I wasn't attentive, or because I really thought it was RL stuff. But you shouldn't quote your role, SF...

[Joubert]

And, let me get this strait, you're trying to make a case against me and SF because we are requesting to go last? Any townie should request to go last as divulge as little extra information to the mafia as possible. Meanwhile, the mafia want to go last so that they can get as much information from other role claims as possible. Thus, requesting to go last is pretty much a null tell.

It's not really a case, it's just what I could come up with, which is not very telling. But better than nothing, I guess. If you actually think that Townie should go last, I could suspect at least one of you two, Aioqwe and SF, since you claimed both Townie. One of them must be for the other reason. That's my reasoning if I follow on your principle of going last when you're Townie. But it's still WIFOM, at the end...

In other words..... Let's suppose that Thinktank's alignment is not confirmed, that there are 2 Scums, 2 Townies. From my POV, I am Town, so there's only one other Townie. If there are 2 people who want to go last, then there's at least one who wants to go last for the Scummy reason, i.e. get as much info as possible to forge a plausible identity...

[Joubert]

How likely is the possibility of having no Vig at all?
Can a Vig kill and be killed during the same Night?

[Joubert]

In other words, kill anyone except Aioqwe... Sounds strange enough...

Vote: Aioqwe

[Joubert]

This is too easy, Aioqwe... I thought you would be more cautious than that...

Actually, you're the only one who did not cast any doubt about the presence of a Vig at all in the current situation. And supposing ThinkTank is the Vig makes you look more Townish as you can "deduce" that the remaining players are very likely Scum. What seems to work in your eye is the opposite in the other's eye...

[Joubert]

Good game, y'all!
Thanks, pete d, for the savory ending. Really funny...
I just don't understand these Tiger, thingy names...

[Joubert]

I think Greasy Spot's ideas made the game quite interesting, nevertheless...

[Joubert]

I think the game must be fun, first of all...

[Joubert]

Dah, don't take it so personally...