Mini 557 - Contagion - The End!

[dahen]

/confirm
Ah, how clever. The purple text is yellow. I think I'm on to something.

[dahen]

The Jester: OMGUS. You need to see the colors. The ability to see colors is magic. Use it. The ability to spell colours is... where am I going? Ah, yes

vote springlullaby

[dahen]

You are right that this is like vengeful, but one problem is that at this stage we will probably lynch a townie based on numbers alone, and then the forced player interaction is gone and we will have serious difficulties spotting scum by more than luck.

So we need a way to force the scums to be active and state their opinions, which is the same as forcing everybody to do just that. And who is better suited than the infected player to make sure that this happens.

You guys who keep saying that day one is so important in this game, I don't agree. We don't have more information D1 in this game compared to any other game, and we WILL get info by infecting just as in any other game. Of course we should think the best we can, but to say this day is so important feels like just pretending to worry about the game.

[dahen]

Ok. I realize that the only people stating Day 1 is important is skitzer and Skruffs, the latter being mod, so maybe I'm completely off here, but I'll go ahead anyway:

vote skitzer

[dahen]

I forgot to unvote first. I don't know if it's necessary, but

unvote

.

vote skitzer

[dahen]

skitzer: Silly or not, here we go. Of course day one is important. That's not what I'm arguing. I'm reacting to the fact that you pointed it out, which you obviously do to bring attention to the point. I can see three reasons for doing that:
1. The rest of the players don't know the mafia in general, and therefore need to learn how to play.
2. The rest of the players do know mafia, but fail to see that in this game, we have to think differently day one compared to what we are used to.
3. You want to make the impression of having the town's best interest at heart.

I rule out case 1 and I question case 2. Unless you point out to me that there IS a significant difference in day one approach from other games, I will assume it's case 3, which gives me scummy vibes.

The Jester: It's not her avatar that scares me the most.

[dahen]

Ok, this game is really weird.
I don't see what the Jester wagon comes from. Why don't you vote Skitzer? Even infected mice seem to want that.

[dahen]

springlullaby: What is sticking out with The Jester? I don't get the same "rubbing" from him. By the way, are you male or female? You don't have a gender icon and I'd like to refer to you correctly.

[dahen]

UltimaAvalon: You have just put springlullaby at 5, which is lynch-1 if we disregard the Infected Mouse (or if the IM hops over to springlullaby)

I agree that springlullaby is acting weird, but the speed this wagon smells of scum.

unvote

for now. I need to re-read.

[dahen]

Ok, rereading:

p1: merely random stuff
p2:

Is it the random vote stage yet?

First post which struck me as odd. Could be a joke, but if not is a strange question to make. As if one is not part of the group.

If we decided it wasn't the random vote stage anymore, would you still vote?

Good question.

Well, it would also depends on what's on offer, but hey, look at you, fishing already?

Also strange reply. Then a discussion follows regarding the semantics of fishing.

The Jester would've been 2.

I don't understand the meaning of this.

OK, if I'm correct about the mechanics and all...when we vote someone suspected of being mafia, were sort of giving them a kill, aren't we? Therefore, I think this game is strongly lienient toward the town, because even if we myslinch, the contagious townie has a second chance. Therefore, I believe day 1 is the most important day in this game.

This speculation warranted my vote for reasons stated above.

Still a lot of nonsense here.
p3:

Can we get back to giving people AIDS?

The discussion needed to turn back to the game at this point, but some suggestion would have been nice.
At this point UA had voted himself and then re-voted himself in another post. No other votes from him.

I did a quick reread, he is the only one who is sticking out.

OMG what have I done? I've basically stated that Day 1 is most important in this game, and ssf agreed with me.

I agree too. You're absolutely right.

That's why I want Rosso Carne to be infected. Give him the rodent.

First, I see no connection between skitzer being right and Rosso being infected. Are you saying we should infect Rosso because he is scummy or because he has a good scumdar? I don't agree with the first, and the second is a horrible strategy.

Unvote, Vote: Skitzer

No reason, bandwagon.

Is a reasonless bandwagon better than your previous Jester vote for sticking out and not rubbing you properly?

p4:

Lol Simenon, you are so scummy.

Is this a joke or a real sense of scumminess?

I thought Simenon scummy

Ok, so it was real. Then I can't see a reason for keeping a vote on skitzer for "no reason".

Unvote
Vote: springlullaby

This vote puts springlullaby at lynch-1 without pointing that out. Dangerous!

I'm going to be blunt. "Rubbing me the wrong way" and "acting scummy" don't cut it. LET'S BE MORE SPECIFIC PLEASE.
And being the Infected Mouse's target is a scumtell because..?

Well, it can be hard to be very specific day one. It's not like springlullby's candidates are near a lynch. She is close to a lynch and should therefore point out her hunches. The mouse question is valid, but also fishing-like. No-one has commented much on the mouse yet. You are the first to start asking questions about it.

p5:

Because springlullaby is at -1 and I don't want to hammer yet

What does "yet" mean in this post?

A conversion from democracy to an autocracy is not "leverage".

This is an important point and very true.

Pick one. Which one do you think we should infect? Hurry time is running out.

Is this to put preassure on springlullaby or is it to get a safe place to put her vote.

unvote, vote rosso carne

Oh, we have a volunteer! And a pretty scummy one at that, imo.

Why is RC scummy? Is he more scummy than springlullaby?

***
Lurker-lis: Players not quoted in this post and who thus need to make more impressions:
*DragonsofSummer
*Rosso Carne
*The Jester

***
Conclusions of none-lurkers (from most to least scummy):

UA

: scummy, could have caused a unaware lynch

springlullaby

: tough one, scummy play but also scummy reactions from others

Psychoside

: need to contribute more and explain his RC vote.

DGB

: seems to have a plan. I don't understand it, which doesn't mean she's not town but could be.

skitzer

: not so scummy in relation to others, but have barely posted. Need to post more.

SSF

: the "yet" is my only puzzle here.

sinemon

: nothing scummy here

I see four possible strategies here:
1. Vote UA for being top of my list.
2. Vote springlullaby since she has been discussed a lot and there is a dead-line
3. Side with DGB and let springlullaby choose the lynch. This has a benefit of seeing where we have springlullaby.
4. Vote a lurker

If we go with 3 and let springlullaby decide and she picks scum, then we know (pretty much) that she is town, and we can start look for scum based on the discussions around her. But if she picks town, then we know nothing, since townies will most likely pick town unless informed and scum definately will. That will only bring us into the same situation tomorrow (but with different mechanics of deciding, of course)

2 could be a choice. I was about to type "but not yet"

vote UA

. I think this is best.

[dahen]

The 'democracy' to 'autocracy' bit is crap

What you don't seem to address is that is that you are not choosing

if

a "good" player should be infected and thus decide who to kill, but

when

. My opinion is that it's better for the town to infect "bad" townies first and "good" townies later. Maybe that's what you are saying too?

(I'm not saying that I or anybody else is capable of deciding who are good and who are bad townies, but you seem to think in those patterns.)

[dahen]

Finally some movement.
DGB: I guessed you would do something along these lines. Asking springlullaby to be specific and select one of the others. That will work if springlullaby is scum and lists two townies and a scum (which is likely) in her list and then selects a townie.

What I don't get is why your reasoning suggest that you believe springlullaby to be scum, but you'd rather vote for a scum partner?
Say springlullaby IS scum and DID select two townies and one scum on her list, and DID select one of the townies when forced to choose one, then we still only have a 50% shot at finding the other scum on the list. What if we don't? Are we then going to select the other one tomorrow for a 100% shot or assume that springlullaby is town only because we guessed wrong. Aren't you going to advocate her lynch anyway?

And on the other hand, if springlullaby is town, then by lynching someone else, we will not get much useful information since springlullaby could not possibly have known more than we do (if her claim is true).

Now that you have made springlullaby answer her question, would you mind explaining your strategy?

N.B. I have been talking about lynches today and tomorrow even though it's really a matter of infection and we don't get a majority say tomorrow. Anyway I will assume that the majority opinion tomorrow at least will have some inpact on the coming choice of infections and use the common way of thinking.

[dahen]

DG: Thanks for your post. It makes sense. I will however ask you for your conclusions from the reactions that you are trying to provoke. Just tell us when you have enough reactions. Scum can just as easily as town try to create discussions and look friendly, but they will often have a harder time trying to draw conclusions the same way as townies.

[dahen]

Or are you scum who didn't seriously plan to get infected?

Why are you preassuring Rosso? If he is scum he would probably infect someone right away to deprive town of discussion. And either way we shouldn't focus on his role. We will know what he is when he infects someone else.

However, the rest of your post is better. I'll look into your points.

[dahen]

Hi, what's up?
I got heavily prodded for another game and spent all yesterday evening trying to get up to date in that one (and got half-way there). I'm only a page or so behind here, so expect me to have caught up tonight.

[dahen]

So, what have we here.

I don't understand the meaning of this.

UA, The Jester. 1, 2.

Ah, OK. Just for fun or did you think it meant something?

I disagree with autocracy being leverage as it has the worst worst-case scenario, in comparison to the democracy's worst case scenario, the "best worst-case scenario".

Agreed, but not of much interest anymore since we are stuck in the autocracy scenario. I wonder what happens if Rosso doesn't send in a choice for infection, if it once again becomes a majority choice. However, I have the feeling that we are not supposed to let that happen.

DGB: I guessed you would do something along these lines. Asking springlullaby to be specific and select one of the others. That will work if springlullaby is scum and lists two townies and a scum (which is likely) in her list and then selects a townie.

This is likely... why?

Assume springlullbay is town.
There are 11 people in this game, of which 10 are unknown to her.
How many scums are there? I'd say 2-3.
Assume that there are 2 scums. Then if she randomly selects 3 people, then the expected number of scums she will list is exactly 0.6
Assume that there are 3 scums. Then the expected number of scums is instead 0.9

As you can see a random, clueless townie will in a list of three select approximately one scum (a little less). We can assume that a somewhat more skilled townie would have a little bit better results, but we will still round it to 1.

Now consider springlullaby as scum. Then she has to decide who to put on her list. Of course she can choose anything, but the optimal play for scum is often to mimic townies as much as possible, and that means in this case to knowingly put exactly one scum on the list.

This was a bit theoretical, but my experience tells me that it's often the case that scum behave in this way. At least our groups of face-to-face mafia.

Oh, this became long a very long answer to a short question. I'll continue with other thoughts in another post.

[dahen]

DG, regarding that, I don't conclude anything more than I wrote in my quoted post, which was saying that your strategy as I understood it seemed good. I answered SSF's question so she can conclude whatever she asked me the question for.

In other news:

SSF: Now that you have my answer, what do you want to do with it? Your long post (155) doesn't say anything about your suspects other than your vote on springlullaby with the motivation "Let's put a vote somewhere then"

How come you didn't choose RC, the current vote leader?

The Jester: If the mod had said we could vote the mouse (he didn't exactly deny it), would you have suggested doing so and why?

So what do the rest of us do about it? Make sure they don't get infected or that they do, or nothing...?

What is your own opinion? My opinion is to infect people that seem scummy and not care too much how they will behave when infected in case they are town. I guess you could argue that it's better to infect trigger-happy players early, when there is not much information availible to analyze anyway, but I don't think that the benefit is high enough to change your scumhunting tactics of choice.

DG: You say that Rosso is a good choice even if he is town.
Is that for meta-gaming reasons or because he says he wants it?

Sinemon: When you voted RC, there was less than 24 hours left of the day and three votes needed for another person to be infected. Your vote had absolutely no effect on the outcome and I assume you knew it and did it for psychological reasons. That's scummy.

However, Sinemon's top suspect seem to be skitzer, and I agree with the accusations in 134. This response by skitzer felt a bit odd to me aswell:

But I don't think that automatically conformiates me to being scum.

SSF, in your last post you are screaming at SL. I don't get if you're just annoyed with her or if you think she's scummy?

OK, not much conclusions in this post either. I'd really like to get some answers to these questions, but unless I get them by this week-end, I'll make a top-two by then.

[dahen]

Read the game Sinemon linked. IH said "What are you doing?" to SV after SV voted him. IH was mafia and was lynched. The next day SV was lynched quick as an assumed partner, but was town and town lost. IH made it look like SV was his scumbuddy, and Sinemon means that skitzer is doing the same here.

I'm sad to see SSF is being replaced. I would have wanted more discussions with him.

UA: You are voting Psychocide for saying the magic words. Why don't you convince Rosso that Psycho is scum instead, or let Psycho defend himself. Or have you found your sweet spot and is now intending to sit back and watch?

[dahen]

I assume you knew it and did it for psychological reasons.

1. The language here seems to suggest that the sole reason why I could be scum in your mind is due to that one vote, which is reaching.
2. I voted just in case it was necessary to lynch someone. So no, I did not "do it for psychological reasons".

Thanks for answering.
But can you explain number 1 to me? I called your behaviour scummy. However, I haven't tried to make this a great case against you, so I don't see what in my post that you think is reaching.

I also don't exactly like the wording that this is the sole reason why you could be scum in my mind. I don't need any proof to consider anyone scum in my mind. It seems like you are trying to get me to back off and say that I don't think you are scum or something like that.

I'll vote in my next post.

[dahen]

I'm going away for Easter in an hour, but I just wanted to step in confirm my masonship with DoS.
I'll save the pages so I can read them offline and see what I can make from this.

[dahen]

Based on posts through 288.

This is interesting.

All right, lets try this then.

What exactly are you trying? If your claim is true then you are really asking us all to kill you, since I guess we can assume that getting the vaccine together is a good thing.

This part is strange:

or I could sacrifice myself for the sake of the vaccine, but I'd rather it not come to that if it isn't necessary.

So you say that you are a surivor who is willing to sacrifice himself if it is necessary.
1. What does you as a Survivor gain by deliberately offer to lose the game?
2. How can you possibly sacrifice yourself when it's the decision of the infected player of whom to infect?

[dahen]

Whooo, easy guys.

After returning from Easter I've just read through what's happened.

If UA has a partner I bet he would have infected by now. Thus I say you should save your daykill, DGB. Use it only when you are quite certain that we have infected scum and immediately at daybreak without asking for permissions (can you send it already during twiligth?). Unless we have more martyrs, that is the only way we can prevent an infected scum from getting a free kill.

I'll try to get back with reads on people within the nearest days.

[dahen]

Since I think we got scum with The Jester, I think it's time for some quick posts from everybody on who they suspect.

My order is
* skitzer
* spring
* dgb

But I'd like some clarifications:
1. Why is DGB alive if she was a suicidal dayvig?
2. So the Jester is still infected? I interpreted this:

Does it mean I'm no longer infected when you dayvig, or do I die anyway? I approve either way

You die.

as the infectee would die and the victim of the vigging would be the new infectee, but I realize that I read it wrong. In that case I wouldn't have advocated a quick vigging. How did the rest of you read it and why didn't point out my error if you say it?

[dahen]

Hmm... I thought this would be a short day, but appearantly The Jester takes his time.
That suggests him being town, which if it's true means there cannot be many different combinations of scum left. I will assume there is more than one scum and will try to see what connections I can dig up among the living players. I have a hectic week-end coming up, but I'll try to get some time for this Sunday/Monday.

[dahen]

Ok. What possibilities do we have. I guess we can assume that The Jester is town at this point. If that's not correct, that's only better for us.

So, what can we have? I start by assuming two scum.
1 scum:
skitzer:
DGB:
SL:
2 scum:
DoS + dahen:
skitzer + DGB:
skitzer + SL:
DGB + SL:
3 scum:
skitzer + SL + DGB:
DoS + dahen + skitzer/SL/DBG:

Please help in filling this in with evidence.

I will start with looking at interactions D1. (Forgive me for not seriously consider myself scum, someone else have to do that part.)

First, some questions at DGB. (Quotes first, questions at the end)

OMG what have I done? I've basically stated that Day 1 is most important in this game, and ssf agreed with me.

I agree too. You're absolutely right.

I don't think I have the mouse.

I mean collectively, we should give him the mouse.

Unvote, Vote: Skitzer

No reason, bandwagon.

Vote for Rosso Carne. He gave DoS food poisoning.

OK.

vote: springlullaby

Simenon, you replied to me once before voting me. I have nothing against rereading, though you replying so seriously to my lightheaded allegation is disturbing. Currently you are my prime suspect.

Can you possibly be more scum?

Then DGB votes Rosso and when votes are piling on SL, DGB asks SL for suspicions. SL says: SSF/BM, Psycho, Jester.
DGB asks SL to choose one and SL chooses Psyco. DGB then asks the town if we should contaminate SSF/BM or Jester.

So, spring votes skitzer ("no reason, bandwagon"). DGB votes spring. DGB changes to Rosso. spring does not follow to Rosso. DGB thinks we should contaminate one of the two that spring didn't pick as first candidate.

DG: Thanks for your post. It makes sense. I will however ask you for your conclusions from the reactions that you are trying to provoke. Just tell us when you have enough reactions.

You bet.

DGB, you never really gave me these conclusions, did you?
DGB, in the beginning you seemed at least a little suspicious of skitzer:

Well, vote: dahen he seems to be playing that game in a way that, at points, minorly contradicts himself...or at least it appears so to me.

That's a cowardly vote. Scummy. Noted.

Then perhaps Sinemon + skitzer:

skitzer, once you get infected, could you nail your scumbuddy DGB for us? TIA

Right. I've been keeping quiet, but I'm beginning to think you're scum, Simenon. Maybe with skitzer.

Then it's Sinemon:

Shall I dayvig Simenon? After I do, I become the infectee. I totally think Simenon is scum.

Then it's Skitzer:

Can I spray skitzer with the viral nebulizer? I want to.

and Sinemon is town:

*Simenon (town 'cuz he says so)

I'd like two things from you:
1. Explain what you were doing with the question to SL day one.
2. Explain how your thoughts changed around Sinemon/Skitzer

[dahen]

Even though my PM doesn't say that DoS is guaranteed innocent, it does say that we are together, not only that we can night talk. So I don't think DoS is a scum mason, and I know for sure that I'm not.

I will probably have no access until Monday. I hope I'll have some answers from DGB by then to get my brain back to trying to figure out this game.

[dahen]

Skitzer - Instincts are not necessarily bad, but I'd suggest waiting for DGB's answers to my questions in post #426. She was one of the most active players in the game before her claim and now she seems gone. I think she's the key at least to my understanding of this game.

Where is she by the way? Prod, please.

[dahen]

DGB: Did you read the post you responded to? It said my questions were in #426. It's kind of a long post where I try to understand your play and shift of views. Could you take a look at it and enlighten us?

[dahen]

To all my games:
I will be on a trip to Norway, leaving later today, probably without Internet access until I'm back on Monday.

[dahen]

Spring: Could you explain how in a game where two non-infected scums at this point isn't won by them at this moment?

So, it's really simple, either you are scum, and then what I tell you doesn't matter anyway, or DGB is the only scum in this game. Of course, there is also a chance that DoS is a scum mason and I'm not, but I really find that difficult to believe.

[dahen]

With presumably 2 scums at large and no deus ex machina, if I infect scum now we can still get a tie.

Please explain. I disagree. Pretend you are town and DGB and DoS are scum together. No matter who you infect in that case, I can't see how I would be able to stop them from winning.

Why do you find it difficult to believe that at least one of you mason could be scum?

First, I know that I'm not scum.
Second, masons, as I see it, exist for one sole reason, namely to have a confirmed group of innocents. I am aware that scum masons exist, but if they were anything but rare, they would defeat the very idea of having masons. I think they are a tool to mess with an ower-powered town, just as naïve cops are, and I don't think this town is even close to being over-powered.

[dahen]

Me (town) infect > scum, who infects > town, who infects> scum = everyone is Le Dead = tie

If what you are saying here is correct, then a one-man mafia could NEVER win the game, since he/she would always be infected in the end. Think about that.

Similarly, a two-man mafia might win if both players are the last to remain, and the first to be infected could somehow choose not to infect his scum mate. Do you seriously think that's a balanced game? Scum needs to have some power to balance things up and I think DGB has exactly that. DoS being a scum mason could of course be seen as a power as well, since I would defend him, but I am more worried that the day vig is scum.

[dahen]

There is something very wrong with the reasoning here.
Are you both seriously believing that DoS and I are scum together and that our only chance to win this game is by both staying alive to be the last two players in the game? If anyone of us would die earlier (if BM hadn't sacrificed himself for us for instance), the best we could do is to tie the game? I know someones don't like setup speculation, but hey, this game is different from others and deserves some thought.

I think the key is the vaccine and that the scum would win as soon as me and DoS are dead. Since our janitor had the third part and was neutral, it makes sense for him to hand over the vaccine at that point.

Our mod has already clarified Spring giving us masons the vaccine part as flavor, but I don't think the entire vaccine stuff is just fluff.

This would also make a more balanced game since they don't have to hope that everyone would be killed off first. That's also why I think DGB wants me to think that DoS is scum, so that if I get infected, I will choose DoS and DGB will win the game.
I don't think DoS will be able to infect DGB and tie in that case, since DGB will already have the vaccine together.

[dahen]

Why are you all so quiet?
If you think about the setup, it's pretty clear who's the last scum.
Two scum where it's enough that one survives until the end would have won by now (or will win guaranteed, so nothing we can do anyway).

Two scum where both must survive until the bitter end would be heavily unbalanced, since it's difficult in normal games, so I can only imagine the trouble in a nightless game.

One scum who must never be infected can't win the game at all.

One scum who must survive until the end is actually easier than two scums needing to survive. Hand in an daykill or so to be able to handle situation where there are one infected, one scum and one uninfected town left. Hand in a vaccine to get to make it even easier (unless you already start by having the vaccine).

And as you so neatly put it, DGB, the vaccine story would collapse if either of us is a scum mason. I think everything points pretty clearly at you.

[dahen]

Spring: Don't you read my posts? Please try for yourself to construct a somewhat balanced setup with two scums that wouldn't be over at this very point.

[dahen]

Sorry for not being nice, it's just that it seemed that you were just lazy and not reading my posts, and by that I felt I had wasted my time trying to explain. I was frustraded and I apologize for letting it shine through in my post.

If you want me to comment more on the setup possibility, you could post the one of your hundred theories that makes the most sense and we could talk about that. But it seems that you are not very interested in taking the setup speculation approach.

You are right that I would infect DGB if I get infected by you, and I believe we'd win by then. But it's only the second best solution from my point of view, since I know I am protown and there still is the small chance that DoS is the only scum (even if I don't understand what the vaccine is all about then), which means we'll lose if DGB is town and I infect her. (And I don't believe it will be a tie by then.)

I'm not sure I'll be able to post during the week-end, but if you have any more questions I'll try to answer them by Monday.

[dahen]

Oh, thanks for not being prodded or PM:ed by DoS. At least I'm alive. I was pretty sure I was being lynched, so I stepped in to see if it was time to infect DGB.

Evil mafia doesn't sound like one player only. And since DoS chose DGB, it should be pretty clear. Except that I'm not scum. I do have the last piece of the vaccine, and I have no idea on how to proceed.

Mod:

If I can use all the three pieces of the vaccine to vaccinate myself, I'd like to do that right now.

[dahen]

DoS - I picked you since from my somewhat limited knowledge I consider you to be the best player in this game. And I am very happy I did, since you were prepared with a claim. That was very important, since this setup would have been horrible for scum if we claimed vanilla. I could refuse to be his mason partner, but then he would have become infected right away and I would have been on my own. That would have been horrible too.

We have no night kills and town really has nothing to hunt for in the beginning, so it's just a matter of time before the first scum will be infected. Then for the last person to stay alive until the end with that vig around, well DGB should have been allowed to stay until the endgame, and there and then won the game for the town (or become infected if her claim was false, but it wasn't).

Actually, we talked a third time, when DoS said we probably won the game when spring was infected. It turns out he was correct, but the continued play worried me.

Thanks everybody for the game.

[dahen]

Be *very* careful!
...
You may communicate with your partner at any time during the game, but again, be careful with that, too.

This scared me a bit. That's why I didn't iniate communication with DoS. I was afraid that he would have to forward the message to the Mod (who would forward it to another player) or anything like that, so I decided to wait until he started talking.