Mini 574: Portal Mafia: HUGE SUCCESS

[Guardian]

Hey guys, good to get in this game for real .

Sir T flakes just when I die in some other games. How perfect.

Anyways, I'll read and comment within a day or so.

[Guardian]

ywn, can you link us to a site where you and the jester played, and give us your screen names?

[Guardian]

erm, didn't mean to submit just that. whatev. if ywn can do that, I find him pretty cleared. if he can't, um, mucho suspicouso.

scot and flameaxe look the most guilty to me, really because they just don't have much content, they both seem to be actively lurking through the game. gorrad was similarly suspicious to me, but then he claimed a PR and mm also cleared him.

MM looked really scummy to me, but then claimed PR. I still think he might be scum, but letting him give another night of results can only be beneficial.

ywn looked suspicious too, but then Gorrad (who's all but confirmed town) said ywn was not a killer.

flameaxe's vote on MM seems like OMGUS on a claimed power role that imo unquestionably should not be lynched today.

I don't even have an idea of who scot finds most suspicious.

Those are my top two. I'd like to hear good reasons from them on who is most suspicious/should be lynched today.

I have thoughts on the other players that I could share, but I don't see a reason to discuss anything other than what I have at this point.

[Guardian]

I'd be voting Flameaxe except that would be lynch -1 and force a claim immediately, and I think there's time for discussion and a few things to talk about.

[Guardian]

vote: Flameaxe

okay then.

[Guardian]

You haven't responded in any substantive way to my 383. Do you intend to?

[Guardian]

Scot, Gorrad scum implies MM scum, and ywn and whomever gorrad investigates tonight town.

Strictly speaking, that's

possible

, but we'll deal with that if and when MM turns up scum. Gorrad shouldn't be lynched unless we're at lylo and MM has already turned up scum.

Well, I get that you're busy, but naming two names with zero justification doesn't help me determine your alignment, or theirs.

[Guardian]

Guardian, if Gorrad is scum, it doesn't clear YWN and who he investigates.

Gorrad can only be scum if MM is the same flavor of scum. So if we lynch Gorrad and MM, and we haven't won yet, either we had 4 of the same scumgroup in a mini, or we YWN and whomever aren't the same flavor of scum as Gorrad and MM.

[Guardian]

Flameaxe's lurking and disproving my reason for not voting him both make me very comfortable that he's in a claim situation.

His delay in claiming does nothing for me in terms of making me reevaluate my vote.

[Guardian]

=========[]

[Guardian]

Thank you.

[Guardian]

Lies, if you were a Jester you' have self ====[]'d

[Guardian]

I'm going to re-read, preferably with Gorrad's results in mind. Gorrad?

[Guardian]

I think mass claiming makes sense.

[Guardian]

It would lock the scum in to a claim; presumably we are in the day before lyol, and I'd rather people are forced to claim today rather than tomorrow.

Put another way: I see very few possible disadvantages to mass claiming.

[Guardian]

I'd be comfortable with Gorrad choosing the order.

In absence of confirmed townies, there are multiple ways to mass claim:

popcorn style: A nominated person starts, they choose who claims next, ad. infinitum. generally, I highly favor this when few scum remain.

random: obv. I generally favor this when many scum remain.

agreed upon non random list: I have come to dislike this, as it has never worked out beneficially for me, and I've used it twice as town.

I'd say we go with whatever order Gorrad picks -- assuming we all agree to mass claim.

[Guardian]

I am OK with whatever Gorrad decides. But rationally, every player would 'like' to go after every other player. So...

[Guardian]

Hider.

Night 1, no hide.
Night 2, hid with Gorrad.

Gorrad is 110% town.

Miztef, you're up.

[Guardian]

Everyone: No comments until we're done.

Ether, you're up.

[Guardian]

YWN, you're up.

I have a question for Ether -- after YWN claims. YWN?

[Guardian]

Until school's out (Early May), expect my dedication to mafiascum to suffer, perhaps greatly. Then I'll have little access at all for a week. Then I'll be back in full swing. I'm posting this notice in all games I'm playing; sorry if my activity suffers.

[Guardian]

There's no harm in asking now, I guess:

Ether, WHO did you block night 2 exactly?

Probably best to respond after YWN claims though.

[Guardian]

Ah, thanks Gorrad.

Ether, what did you mean by "other" killing role?

YWN, I didn't get that at all from #455, but um, whatever. Also, I'm not sure "weird role" is at all indicative of scum in this game, and I'm unsure why you'd think that... Weak Doctor, Gunsmith variant, Hider... none of those are your standard mini inclusions. What made you think "weird power role" would be suspicious in this game?

Ether's claim seems fishy. She wanted to claim last -- and she ends up claiming a RB who targeted me night 1, the night when Tornado took no action, and on scot night two, a dead vanilla townie. It's like a cop who only targeted dead people; she's a RB who only targeted those who took no actions. Could be legitimate, could be scum trying a convincing fake claim.

I'd like to note that since I did claim before her, and had absolutely no way of knowing she was a RB, if she is, in fact, a RB, my not having hid night one is pretty good proof that I wasn't making up a power role claim. If I was scum and made up some power role that had some action night 1 with a result, I'd be dead in the water -- I'm not, I'm just relaying the facts.

Here's my vision of the best case scenario: Ether is lying scum, is the last mafia [goon, godfather, RB, whatever], we lynch her, we win.

My vision of the worst case scenario: Ether is telling the truth. The town has 4 power roles. One of Miztef, YWN, is an investigation-immune godfather/Gorrad's role only works if that person is actively killing/whatever. Incognito is a serial killer.

The only constant is that Gorrad is definitely town.

What's the plan? Scum-hunt. Lynching Ether very well could end the game, and that would be great -- but we very well could be 1-1-4 right now, in which case a mislynch would be disastrous. Whenever I get a chance, this game is top priority, I'm going to read through with a fine tooth comb and see what unearths.

[Guardian]

Hider
My role is what's described there.

Incognito, why do you frame your belief in terms of "either or"? Did you read my previous post? Do you disagree that Miztef or YWN could be scum?

Do you find it irrational for me to consider that Ether and I are both town, YWN or Miztef is scum, and you are an SK? If so, why?

[Guardian]

I'm inclined to believe this claim over Guardian's at the moment. I like the fact that Ether was able to surmise that I was the other killer based on the information she drew from the thread and through her own abilities if she is in fact the roleblocker.

I wanted to again point out something odd about Ether going last -- if she was scum considering a RB fake claim, she gets a lot of town cred if she makes up a RB result on whichever of me or Incognito was not the killer, and says "see, I *knew* the other was a killing role". By dint of her having gone last, she hasn't proved she *knew* anything.

Incognito, why do you frame your belief in terms of "either or"? Did you read my previous post? Do you disagree that Miztef or YWN could be scum?

I did read it, yes. I agree that YWN could be scum, but I'm less inclined to believe that Miztef is scum. I was under the impression that investigation immune Godfathers are immune to Cops but we don't have a Cop here; we have a Gunsmith.

Yeah, but the Gunsmith here isn't at all what a gunsmith normally is; I would not be surprised if the godfather isn't what it normally is, should there be one.

I believe a Gunsmith is a more interesting role to include in a mini-game than a Cop because it doesn't give you a flat-out guilty or innocent result. Instead, it forces you to determine that if you find out someone is able to kill is that person most likely aligned on the side of the town or the scum. Therefore I doubt a Godfather would be immune to a Gunsmith's investigation.

I disagree, because of what Gorrad said about

his

gunsmith role in

this

game.

I could however see a Traitor being immune to investigation early on (because he lacks the ability to kill at that point until the Goons die) and that's the instance where I could agree with YWN possibly being scum. But Miztef was just investigated last night and Gorrad found him to be clean. Therefore, I think Miztef is town.

I think it is just as reasonable to believe YWN is scum as Miztef, if they look scummy. Again, need to re-read, maybe our disagreement will be irrelevant if Miztef looks really town-like to me.

Do you find it irrational for me to consider that Ether and I are both town, YWN or Miztef is scum, and you are an SK? If so, why?

See above about YWN and Miztef. I think it's rational for you to consider you and Ether town, yes, if YWN is scum.

Fair.

I think it's irrational for you to consider the possibility of me being an SK. My targets have pretty much gone in line with my suspicions during the day

That's a great thing for a SK to do.

and I was the one who brought up the mass claim idea to circumvent the possibility of town thinking I'm an SK.

[wifom]

If I were an SK, I would not have done that.

[/wifom]

As you say, that's WIFOM.

I wasn't asking if you thought it should seem more likely from my POV that you are a vigilante than a SK, I asked if it was irrational to consider the possibility. I think you've overstepped a little bit, as you haven't really proven how it is irrational to consider it. I'd like you to clarify.

[Guardian]

Ether, your plan seems to ignore the scenario of Incognito being an SK.

If we no lynch, we could lose up to 3 people tonight -- mafia kill, SK kill, and one of them targeting you, who I'm hiding with. That would, at worst, result in 1-1-1 tomorrow.

I'm not sure me saying if -- and who -- I'm hiding with before we go to night is a good plan at all.

And even if Incognito is a vigilante, and you, Ether, are a mafia roleblocker, for instance, me hinding with you would kill me, and you could block incognito and kill him -- or allow him to kill a townie, and kill another.

I'm very dubious about abandoning scum hunting and no lynching today.

[Guardian]

If I hide with Ether and don't die, she's town.

[Guardian]

All that can be counterbalanced by the town having... 4 power roles? And players... not being idiots? And this assumes that Incognito is a vigilante, not a Serial Killer.

I'm unsurprised that the player I accuse of being an SK and the player I accuse of being a mafioso trying to con us with a plan have voted me, even before re-reading, or considering any other options.

[Guardian]

I don't *THINK* you're anything.

I only *THINK* we should all re-read the thread, try and figure out what setup is most likely, and then move on from there.

I've *suggested the possibility* that you're a SK, and you've basically OMGUS'd me for it.

[Guardian]

or considering any other options.

This is a load of fish-shaped solid waste, and you know it.

Not at all, but your rhetoric was amusing.

[Guardian]

I'd like to hear Gorrad, Miztef, and YWN's thoughts, because I think there's a non-insignificant possibility that I'm being tag-teamed by two remaining scum.

I'll get to a re-read probably on Thursday, and see who seems most likely to be partners with jack and flame.

[Guardian]

I disagree with the plan for reasons stated, however, I do agree that the plan of no-lynching is better than the plan of lynching me, the hider.

I think it would, at the least, be better to scum hunt today and get some thoughts out there before no lynching, but if the result of your scum hunting is "lynch obv Guardian scum now now!11" and you want to do that or no lynch immediately, we can no lynch now, since I won't be able to re-read for a couple of days, at the earliest.

So, if you are all irreconcilably sold to lynching me or going with Ether's plan, I'll comply with Ether's plan.

I reiterate: if I am dead and Ether isn't lynch Ether -- unless you think Incognito is an SK, then no lynch and hope. .

Just so there's no unclarity, the plan is:

Gorrad --> me
Incognito --> YWN
Ether --> Miztef
me --> Ether

right?

[Guardian]

vote: no lynch

"The plan", though it has faults, is much better than lynching me.

What are you going to do when I turn up town and there's 4 -- or 3 -- people alive tomorrow?

Lynch Ether? Lynch Incognito? Lynch YWN? Lynch Miztef?

You'll have no flipping idea what to do, because you'll have wasted today lynching me for -- ostensibly -- role-based reasons -- reasons that are leading to a completely incorrect conclusion.

No one's concretely critiqued my play in the slightest, you're just saying "oh, well, Guardian must be scum... vote."

Oh, and Incognito's note about the night 1 kill is bogus, especially since Sir T was around to make the no hide choice.

You're also ignoring how I claimed a role that did nothing N1, and Hid N2 -- that fits in perfectly with Ether's claim, that I had no way of knowing anything about. Lyching me today is a great way to start pulling defeat out of the jaws of victory.

We've got 2 scum dead, let's not throw the game away, please. Thanks.

[Guardian]

1. That depends on night actions, doesn't it?

Huh?

2. Alright. Guardian must be scum because of how much pressure he put on a working plan

The plan *has* problems: if Incognito is a SK, for instance. However, It is better than lynching me and going to night with no kill.

as well as my results

wtf -- you think the scum have no role that illudes your restults? we've lynched 2 goons. you think I'm scum and ether and incog are town:

you think this game the town had a weak doc, a gunsmith, a rb, a vig, vs 3 goons???

and Incognito's points.

huh?

3. That there was a no-hide is on your word alone

no shit. my no hide is *ALSO* consistent with everyone else's claims, *despite* my claiming first. that's on *everyone's* word.

4. We're doing really well. We can afford to take a gamble like this that has odds so much in our favor.

This is idiocy. We're doing really well, and there are 6 alive. We can afford to lynch a townie, since tomorrow won't -- OH WAIT. Tomorrow WILL be lylo, for 100% certainty if you lynch me, unless ether blocks scum AND incognito no kills.

.............

[Guardian]

kill should be plan, above, for no kill.

Anyways:

Seriously, YWN or Miztef could any second, and tomorrow be like "well, yeah, I thought everything made sense"

and you'd have no fsking idea what to do tomorrow, no matter who wound up dead, or what results were claimed.

Me being scum makes precious little sense, but it could be confirmed by Ether's plan -- or reading the thread and seeing how me being scum isn't very plausible.

Lynching me today makes absolutely ZERO sense.

I'm extremely disappointed that you're just following along here Gorrad, because I know you're town, and you're dead wrong.

Does Incognito saying "even if we use the plan, I won't follow it, I'll try and kill Guardian, and then even if he doesn't die I'll say he's a godfather" mean nothing to you???

FFS.

[Guardian]

I don't have time to post detail/clearly right now (tomorrow hopefully), just doing a drive-by in some threads then going back to studying;

Gorrad you admit being stubborn in 510 and keep your vote... why? Dude, as I said, we will be in LYLO tomorrow if I'm lynched, and with such a short day we'll have no flipping idea who to lynch.

Like a page ago, you said you agree with the plan, and preferred it to my lynch. No more? You say I'm a scum hider Gorrad -- then why don't we see about that and have you check me tonight? I'm not a killing role.

I feel I'm being straw-man'd by Incognito in 512. For instance, you say I am being inconsistent about scum-hunting. I explicitly said I still think scum-hunting is the best way to go, but that if the results of y'alls scum hutning is "lynch Guardian NOW NOW lulz... or maybe go with Ether plan kekek" then we should no-lynch now, since it will be several days at the earliest when I get a chance to scum hunt, and there is little case on me, so a flawed no-lynch plan is better than a me-lynch.

I similarly wonder why Incognito calls for no hammer but keeps his vote.

YWN: If Ether's a RB, and she trusts Gorrad's results:
She knows I didn't kill N1 (she RB'd me). She knows Gorrad didn't (power role). She knows YWN and Miztef didn't (Gorrad says they can't kill). She knows she can't (obv.). So only Incognito is left as a killing role that killed N1 and N2.

[Guardian]

I hadn't thought of that. It is certainly possible.

Again, why we need to scumhunt.

Note: I didn't say I found Gorrad scummy for that, I just thought he hadn't thought it through. So before you go say I'm scummy for not thinking of that; that's not what I accused Gorrad of. I agree with you I hadn't thought that through about Gorrad.

All the more reason we need to not rush through the day, and instead have all 6 players carefully analyze the other 5.

[Guardian]

Okay, so I re-read and shite.

YWN: Likely townie. Behavior uber-reasonable.

Ether: Likely townie. Timing on Flameaxe lynch indicative of town alignment.

Miztef: Gadzooks batman! Lurker scum! Today's claim was pretty bullshit too ("ha.. I'm a townie.. ha... makes me look scummy eh? ha ha..."). If Miztef waltzes in and drops the hammer, lynch tomorrow (unless you are of the persuasion that Incognito is an SK).

Gorrad: Pretty reasonable until today. If Miztef isn't scum, I think it is Gorrad actually . But I think it is Miztef.

Incognito. SK or Vig. SK... or vig...
Learning SK. But, I mean, really hard to tell. Could be voting me since he wants a mislynch today (lynching the final scum would mean SK doom). Kinda bullshit reasoning about how if we went with the plan he'd NK me tonight, seeing as me not being killed (by his own admission) would prove absolutely nothing. Sure, he killed his top suspects -- it makes sense for an SK to hunt mafia.

My ideal plan:

Lynch Incognito today. Remove any chance of an SK win.

5 players go to night. Ether claims whomever she is going to RB beforehand (Miztef or YWN, I suggest Miztef) . I hide with Ether. Gorrad investigates me.

If I die and Ether doesn't, Ether is scum.
If Ether dies and I don't, I'm scum.

If Me and Ether die, one of Gorrad and whomever of {YWN,Miztef} Ether didn't block is scum, and whomever Ether blocks has to decide tomorrow.

If no one dies, we have 5 alive, and 2 chances to lynch scum.

Summary:
Incog might be SK -- lynch him to remove any chance of an SK winning this game.

At night:
Gorrad --> Me
Me --> Ether
Ether --> Miztef

That is my optimal plan, and I think the most likely to ensure a town victory.

unvote; vote: Incognito

Any questions, please ask.

[Guardian]

Ether... you're wrong.

Incognito... you're quoting me saying to hammer Flameaxe, and trying to get people to hammer me. The irony is palpable.

[Guardian]

Provide reasoning to convince me that you actually find that to be a reasonable interpretation -- the most reasonable interpretation -- and aren't just asserting it in the hopes that people follow you like sheep and hammer me.

Go for it.

[Guardian]

It's my fellow brethren townies that I need to convince.

This made me rofl. I mean, can you lay on the sarcasm and lies any more in one sentence?

"My fellow brethren townies." ('Until I shoot and kill one of them tonight, and again the next'?)

[Guardian]

YWN seems like town from a holistic analysis of his posts. I looked for general patterns, not details. His having a legitimate meta with Jester explained away that connection, as well.

[Guardian]

if we go to night, lynch Incog, cuz he's an SK .

I'm scum, and extremely annoyed because I would not have bought into the plan as a hider. Really though, it

was

me or Ether, and Ether's claim made more sense.

I wish Flameaxe had done... anything.

oh well, town is on cruise control to win, whether Incog is an SK or not. gj yo.

[Guardian]

Also annoyed since I'm an inv immune godfather, so If I'd just gone along with the plan, much better place than being lynched right now ;(.

[Guardian]

Unsure. Glork will reveal, I'm sure. I think I may have been, but he wouldn't confirm it for certain.