Mini 543 - Election Day - Game Over!

[Skruffs]

Hey guys! I am replacing gorgon. *hic* I think....

[Skruffs]

I won't be caught up by the 14th, but I will at least start forming half-assed opinions by the deadline.

[Skruffs]

Hmm.

[Skruffs]

I Will elaborate on the HMM later, I was just realizing the extend of hte rules on this game. I think hte whole 'vote for immunity' thing is neat, but it's more of hte other players in the game that are the basis of it. STill, I am keeping notes, and will update you guys soon. (Lots of stuff going on)

[Skruffs]

I don't quite remember what I was hmm-ing about. I remember thinking it was interesting how the game worked, and was catching up on things more than watching the main bulk of the game. How far did I get though, not very far. I figured that it was likely she would be trying to vote me as I was one of her top suspects, that is why I voted her.

I think it's interesting that MGM is still alive, I think that farside was seemingly more curious about why players thought others were town over why they might think others were scum, that might be it.

If someone has questions for me, I Can try and answer them, though it is a bit harder to answer questions based on why another player did something.

[Skruffs]

MGM - I'm curious as to why The Fonz seems most town to you - was it because he tried to Immunity-ize you as soon as he replaced in, as well as repeatedly saying you seem most town? I don't see many interactions between you and him.

[Skruffs]

okay notes, in random order:
farside immunities scum(cow), page two

Boggsie (Fonz) notes that SJ killed off in other games very early - who was in other games? He was in three games other than this one before leaving the site. Triumverate Mafia, which was abandoned with him still alive, a newbie game where he was endgamed, and Pine Barrens, where he was NK'd n0.
Players in that game AND this one: Cow (mafia in this game and that), mcpaltp(town in this game), BOGGZIE, opie(town in this game).

Big fos on Boggzie

. The way he states this so early in teh day suggests, to me, that as mafia (even with cow) he may have preplanned this simply to put attention onto town players AND distance himself from cow. He never pushes it afterwards, either - presumably because nobody bites at it - which makes it worse in my opinion.

boggzie/cow take opposing view of game mechanics

Cow immunizes farside - returning the favor, strikes me as buddying up to town.

Rigel/Akonas bothj suggesting cow/farside grouping (see budying up earlier on)

Akonas pushes cow/farside link

Quickben talks about not being able to claim if being run up - why is that an issue for him, specifically? Is he expecting to be run up? [

fos

(post 89)

QMan pushes 'open voting' - but I don't recall seeing him vote anyone, yet.

farside, called out for being buddies with Cow, is now distancing with him instead. (96)

cow focusses on farside,

farside's 102 about nighttalking n0 about who to vote is interesting - I need to see what happened n0, (research)... it looks liek everyone got to do a night action, but there was no voting. I don't understand why they would talk about who to vote n1, on n0, before the game even started. She also backs off of her argument, but that doesn't specifically mean anything...

Boggzie replaces because he's giving off incorrect vibes to his alignment: I am not sure what that means, or how he can see his own vibes, or if he feels he is being scummy nad is thus distancing *FROM HIMSELF* , or what. Why wasn't he pressured on this?

Quickben accuses Opie of attacking lurkers rather than asking questions - while I kind of agree that it is better to ask questions, I feel that Quickben is pushing for a lynch on him rather than questioning himself - which is exactly what he is criticizing opie for not doing.

Fos

Qman: This is interesting, in his first "real" post that I've seen, he runs down each player and says:
Cow is scum (correct)
Akonas is scum (incorrect, akonas was cop)
Farside, holy, quickben - protown (holy was protown, the others a re alive)

this is unusual because cow and farside had a very interesting relationship early on, and QMan seems to further try and split them apart - sayign one is scum and the other isn't. I myself am leaning towards a town farside, because of hte buddying up - but I also know, now, that cow was scum, something that wasn't evident. I'm saying I would have been less sure which was scum, as town, before one was revealed than qman seems to be. Also interesting, nobody he has said was town in that post has been nk'd yet.


Cow responds immediately afterwards: HE ignores Qman's post and, coincidentally, agrees to vote Akonas, someone that Qman is saying he feels is scummy. Was he trying to deflect attention from a town-Qman onto Qman's second choice for scumminess or is he cooperating with scum-Qman to build a block on Arkonas?


Farside is now buddying up to Qman, agreeing with his list after pointing it out. IF Qman and Cow are both scum, than it makes sense to think Farside is the third partner - which would explain Qman 'salvaging' her and bussing cow.


Elias posts, and brings up the whole "peoiple from previous games" - of which he WAS one! but like boggzie, he does not extrapolate any further on this.

cow made a huge slip in 174 (not that it matters now) abuot hte number of antitown groups. He inferred knowledge of at least one anti-town group.

186 - farside pressures holy, right after holy talks about Rigel, akonas, and cow, who she would vote for. Strange.

Quickben has not contributed much, and then 'accidentally' puts a last minute immunity on HOly and pushes opie vote. Odd.

elias pushes farside town, too. My head is starting to hurt, mapping relationships.
Post 199 - Elias last minute pushes Opie over Cow lynch. (Doesn't explain why).

Fos : MGM

COntinues by trying to disperse the town's ability to lynch successfully, in 203, with "I think its better to just talk about who youre suspicious of in a broad fashion, and not nail down your most suspicious person.", which is a scum tactic I saw used in Exile which had a similar situation of mechanics.

BIGGER FOS MGM

Farside is the only person explaining the wagon on Cow - I am redeeming her in my opinion.

Opie finally brings up the "Pine BArrens" meta and explains it.

Elias says cow is probably town, but then says he will vote for him

on the basis of Pine Barrens

, which both he and his replacement brought up, didn't elaborate on, but then seized on when someone else did. Again, this could very easily have been a staged thing from the beginning of hte game where one mafia said he would bus the other. I don't see cow responding to the PIne BArrens insinuation at all, which suggests even further the same thing.


Voting:
The only people still alive who did not lynch cow n1 were (me) and (mgm)'s predecessors: unless there were only two mafiates, then at least ONE of hte mafiates were voting Cow when he was lynched, which means he was bussing. This also implicates Elias (The Fonz) even more.

Farside starts off hte day by asking why Gorgon, who didn't get a chance to talk day 1, voted Rigel (who was killed that night)

Gorgon starts off confidently, and attacks Elias (though for different reasons than I did)

Elias defends by saying he always was willing to vote Cow, but I remember most of his posts day 1 saying that he didn't like the case on cow.. and only reluctantly agreeing to vote for him. He also starts off hte day by trying to break down the towniness tha tpeople feel is aptly deserved, by farside. Elias pushing that Farside/cow's were buddies. Again, if the whole thing about Pine BArrens was intentional from the beginning, then cow, knowing he was the sacrifical mafia lamb, would have been trying to attach himself to a townie. Which is what Elias is now trying to exploit.

301 - Akonas voting Elias.


I only got up to page 13 and I have other games to play and other things to do, so that's all for now.


My suspicions are that Farside is town, The Fonz (Elias) is scum, and the other two I am not sure of quite yet but I have talked abou and will more concretely discuss with further reading.

Immunity : Farside22

Vote : The Fonz

[Skruffs]

I'm fossing you for something both Boggzie and Elias did almost the same way:
They brought up the Pine Barrens thing, but didn't push it, and waited. After someone else brought it up, Elias then nudged it again. Point is, in the beginning it could have been nudged to make it look like someone was setting UP cow, which would sort of clear cow int he public eye for a bit while putting suspicion on all the other players that were in both games.

I think it's interesting because Elias was mafia in the other game, and replaced someone who was town in the other game, and both of them brought it up in this game; elias obviously had nothing to do with the kill of SJ in this game, and neither cow nor boggzie (the person who originally brought it up) could have known that Elias would replace into the game. So Boggzie brought it up entirely to incriminate Cow - and Elias did as well.

I'm not sure what you are referring to in the second part - who else talked about the theory that I didn't mention? Perhaps it is talked about later in the game, and I missed it?

I think the theory was offered at a time when it was not known that cow was scum by, likely, someone who DID know that cow was scum and was trying to incriminate them to make himself look good. With the vig dead and no sign of a vigilante, there was no reason for one scum partner NOT To pull this gambit. At best, it makes cow look to be set up and thus put off of public persecution, and at worse, cow gets lynched and the person who brought it up looks good. Either way, one scum partner winds up looking good.

The reason I think that it wasn't just a coincidence is because of the situation involved: SJ only had one game that could be used for it; anyone else (like an active player) would have too many connections to other games and players to be able to posit such a theory. Also, a good chunk of the cast of this game was in the other game, too - if someone had 'taken the bait' and said that cow was being set up - or if he had actually done so himself - it would have put a lot of attention on the other players that were in the other game, a game that Cow won as scum already, and that it could be seen other players (As scum in this game) were getting revenge on.

Lastly, Cow's utter lack of defense about it suggests that he was expecting it to come up - he never suggested that he was being set up, all he did was ask what the case was, over and over. Elias's last minute hop onto him seems completely designed to NOT draw attention to himself. He went both-ways in regards to what he thought about cow, saying he was town and also saying he would vote for him.

I think there was a conflict between elias's desire to look pro-town and his desire to protect his scum buddy.

[Skruffs]

I've said my top scum suspects are, it's Shanba and Skruffs, we're deadlined and I'm already all over scummy anyway, I have my suspects from narrowing the players of who I think is pro-town. Farside22 and Elias/Fonz are pretty much feel like pro-town in my eyes. Qman in the middle, and Mgm is cleared by Akonas.

I figured she would be voting me, so I voted her. The facts bear me out. Are you suggesting there was someone else I should have been voting?


Also: why did shanba steal your vote, and how do we know that is what a politician does?

[Skruffs]

How do you mean? I may not have gotten tot he point where she claimed, but the closest I've ever seen to a politician role is a governor, who can decide to null the town's lynch. That would actually be fitting in this game, where hte lynch comes nearly as a surprise.


There is more to respond to, and I will in my next post.

Farside: I was expecting to be lynched last night. You, holy, and I think someone else all expressed interest, and after my HMM post I expected a lot of flack for that. I was kind of surprised that Holy was lynched instead. Is the order of hte names on the lynching vote meaning anything? If they are numerically based (by order of submission) rather than alphabetical, it may give a hint (if we look at all of them) as to who voted at around the same time.

[Skruffs]

Skruffs - what is hmmworthy? Are you scum? If so, how dare you betray me!

Actually, considering I'll probably end up at your throat regardless, you may as well be scum...

Shanba always winds up attacking me, no matter how many times over I have been cleared. He even doubted his own sanity, as a cop, in ORK mafia because he got an innocent on me. IH's anime mafia, when there was only one mafiate left and I had been both cleared AND role blocked and thus doubly cleared, he also wanted to vote me. There are others, too. When he said that, I got the imrpessiong that he was serious.

And that is a supposed 3 out of 7, and since Shanba had the power to sway a vote, he could have chosen for me to vote myself instead, which would have been 4 out of 7.


You voted for me, right? Why?

[Skruffs]

And that is a supposed 3 out of 7, and since Shanba had the power to sway a vote, he could have chosen for me to vote myself instead, which would have been 4 out of 7.

Yeah, he could have, but he was sane enough not to. Imagine for a moment he survived. Would you trust a politician who bribes the intended lynch victim to be town?

I think this is irrelevant; if he had done that, I would be dead.Theoretically let's say I'm someone else, though. If Shanba had done that and Skruffs had turned up scum, it would have been a worthy gambit that would have cleared Shanba. If Shanba had done that and Skruffs had turned up town, it would have been way too scummy and obvious to be a scum move, so, at lylo, I Wouldn't have voted Shanba, because that was just dumb. Plus, Shanba, as town-politican (even a dead one) can force scum to vote themselves at LYLO.


The Fonz:
I've expressed where I have read up to and I didn't see any indications, from Arkonas, that he investigated MGM. What I saw, I pointed out, because it strikes me as MGM buddying up to town, perhaps misled town. Around what page did a post from Arkonas get used to 'clear' MGM?

I"m surprised you didn't counter-pseudovote me. And I'm thinking I like MGM as my pseudovote, for now, at least until I can see where it looks like he is cleared.

unpseudovote, pseudovote MGM

[Skruffs]

So MGM's *dramatic* flip flop on you wasn't scummy?
HE just said "Oh yeah, I Was suspicious of Farside", voted you, said "And then I forgot why" and unvoted.

Maybe I'm missing the subtlety here, but you just said it was probably QMan because HE flip flopped, and then pseudovoted me.

WHat is going on in that head of yours?

[Skruffs]

Why did you vote for Holy, though?

And

The Fonz, did you expect QMan to get many votes other than yours, last night?

[Skruffs]

<-bump

[Skruffs]

Another bump.

I'm still curious abou why The Fonz was voting QMan - when it didn't appear anyone else was intending to. I'm thinking maybe he was distancing.

[Skruffs]

I don't follow what you are trying to say farside.

If nobody else was voting Qman, but he intended to - because he wanted Qman lynched - why wouldn't he promote it?

[Skruffs]

Okay. So everyone seems to think I am scum. Sounds like shy scum trying to manipulate an easy end-of-game mislynch for the win, to me.

I think The Fonz voted his scum partner knowing that he was considered the 'most town' of the noncleared players. MGM was 'cleared' and Shanba was a power role, so all he had to do was get enough people on his side to get an extra lynch and win.

Farside was the most town in my eyes after I read through. She is playing like someone who doesn't know anything but is still trying, which seems townie. The Fonz and Qman both are playing like people who :knowstuff:. That I am the only person in the game who is suspicious of The Fonz at all just makes me MORE suspicious. I don't undestand why a 'cleared' player like MGM who thinks The Fonz is definitely town would be allowed to live to the next day, unless MGM was wrong about the fonz's alignment and they were hoping to use that to their advantage.

[Skruffs]

the 'he' is you.
Being inconsistent is a town tell. Scum walk carefully to avoid being caught, and town poke and prod and try to unearth tasty tidbits that they can use to find scum. 'Exploiting Arguments' is the only way to see if there is any merit to them or not - I wouldn't expect you to agree, because you don't even NEED arguments except to get mislynches (being scum).

MGM is your puppy dog; you need him around as a pseudo-cleared player to have your back. MGM trusting you means he is 100% more likely to vote someone other than you, rather than the 75% of a nonbiased town player.

[Skruffs]

That's reaching, both of you.

[Skruffs]

@Skruffs: You're either drunk or being deliberately obtuse if you're suggesting inconsistency is a town tell. It's one of the most obvious scumtells there is.

If not scum should have killed MGM since most find the cop cleared him. Since someone pointed out that Shanba looked good and had a feeling that would be a person I could see scum getting rid of easily.

Is there anyone alive, apart from MGM, that that doesn't apply to? There's no way that MGM not dying is evidence against anyone, apart from MGM.

I disagree with you, The Fonz. The scum know what the deal is and what hte odds are and who's what. Town doesn't. Scum therefore, have a beetter grasp on whta's going on and so know what to push from the beginning, whereas town has to make 'choices' about what to say and who to suspect with every post, which can lead to inconsistencies, especially if the player is weak willed or gullible or unsure of what's going on.

I agree that MGM not dying is not EVIDENCE, but it's very convenient for YOU That he didn't die considering he's both likely cleared by a cop AND he is putting his bets on you. Isn't it? If you weren't scum, that would be a very dangerous 'allowance' for scum to let any town player have, at lylo.

[Skruffs]

If the fonz gets immunity I will be voting for Qman, because they seem pretty obviously a scum team to me. I'm not going to vote farside, who I feel is town, and I am not going to vote MGM, who seems to be cleared. Also, The Fonz and QMan aren't going to vote MGM, because he's 'cleared', which suggests that they will vote me or farside.

[Skruffs]

Hmm.
I want to go right after Fonz again, but fonz as the lone scum probably would not have gone after MGM. but fonz as lone scum might have killed MGM as the only cleared player to make it look like me or farside did it.

[Skruffs]

Um not to be contrary but both you and MGM were talking abou voting Farside yesterday. You expressed doubts at the end of the day, so you left your options open, but I was talking about farside's innocence from my first read through. If I remember correctly, farside was asking everyone who they would vote, and you were the only one who 'changed his mind' shortly before the deadline: MGM stayed the course on farside and you didn't. If I was scum I would absolutely have attempted to vote farside to win the game; the chances of at least one of you doing so were almost 100%.


If I remember correctly, you were voting farside until the very end of hte day: You said you had to do your pairs analysis first, (That close to deadline? Why wait?) and then didn't do anything. I think you were keeping your options open.

Farside: can you point to a game with you as scum in it?
The Fonz: you were scum in big love with me and you were very active until the end of the game where you basically stopped playing. Is there another game with you in it as scum?

[Skruffs]

In that game, what did you base your nightkill decisions on? Did you tend to kill people who seemed to think you were town or people who seemed to think you were scum?

[Skruffs]

You expressing doubts about MGM, and scolding him, fits in perfectly though with exactly what you are talking about. If you didn't really trust MGM at the end of the day to vote farside, then you would be better off hedging your bets by changing your vote to QMan anyways. I think you balked in the self-confidence department and played the easy route. You knew that both I and farside would be voting Qman, and wasn't sure if MGM would or not. So you hopped onto QMan too, thinking you would still be able to recover by, well, doing exactly what you are doing today.

[Skruffs]

In a way, it makes sense why you would have killed MGM too... MGM may have had questions about why you turned around,a nd killing him makes it look like me or farside is the scum... so you get a double bonus

Shame on you, Fonz.

[Skruffs]

Well, my vote is going to be on Fonz, farside, because I still think you are town, if only because you don't seem to have any idea what's going on (No offense meant). So I guess if I am right, and it is Fonz, he wins, because obviously he'll vote me too with you. If you are scum, and I doubt you are because it's set up too nicely for you to be scum to really make me think you *are* scum, then you win, too.

I am not sure if Fonz wants to include anything else or not. I think it's kind of sad that you are basing your vote on me because of hte actions of known scums and NOT on my own or Fonz's play directly. Scum are always trying to mislead down. I, as scum, when I thought I was in trouble have intentionally ignored town players in my posts and attacked or defended my buddies. Why? Because it leads to WIFOM. Hate, Love, or Ignore, those are the options scum have to try to misdirect town. You should really be looking at what Fonz has done in thie game and how he has interpretted all the other players, not what cow or QMan did.

[Skruffs]

Okay. I feel that you are town because of your behavior earlier on in the game. I think I've already expressed it in earlier posts as to why, but basically I use a very loose meta system that people who are loud, and wrong, are usually town. You have been wrong abou a lot of things, which suggests that you came into the game with no information.

The Fonz, similarly, seems to know a lot about the game and scum and all that. To the point that MGM trusted his vote in following The Fonz. Killing MGM as scum after his partner was killed would be a very risky move for him to do, which might be exactly why he does it. I've seen The Fonz in other games and he has no compunctions against doing stuff that is incredibly risky, gambitting, stuff like that. It's only when he's pinned to the wall and caught that he gives up, and that's when he usually stops talking.

If The Fonz had killed me, instead of MGM, you would be more suspicious of The Fonz, automatically, right? Similarly, MGM would have doubts as to why he was left aliive, which would make him reconsider his ties with The Fonz. Killing MGM leaves The Fonz with a two pronged defense that he can use today, and he's already used both of those prongs.

I think that he is scum based on his 'knowledge' of the game, and the way that he bussed QMan towards the end of the day while still trying to put suspicion on you, farside, so that when QMan came up scum he could try and convince me to vote you the next day.

[Skruffs]

If Fonz were to suddenly jump on me and agree with you, wouldn't you be at least a LITTLE suspicious?

[Skruffs]

Well.. Pretty sure. His stalling isn't helping me change my mind, for sure.

[Skruffs]

If at the end of hte day, though, if you are voting me and he is voting you, I am going to vote you to make sure that at least we have a chance of winning.

[Skruffs]

I would agree. Randomly giving scum immunity would be a horrible end of the game.

[Skruffs]

You are changing your mind about me being scum?

[Skruffs]

Oh, good, everyone's back again. Yay.

And I'm too tired to comprehend all this, so, first thing tomorrow.

I did pick up that farside's top of the page opinion is almost 100% different than the one from the page before it, when fonz *wasn't* posting.

[Skruffs]

Okay, somehow this game was knocked off my watchlist. I jsut made a rather involved post on another gamee *COUGH FARSIDE COUGH* and am sick, so I will form a coherent response in the morning, since it's my day off.

I am sorry for making you all wait.

[Skruffs]

This post is the main reason I find skruffs scummy.

Another bump.

I'm still curious abou why The Fonz was voting QMan - when it didn't appear anyone else was intending to. I'm thinking maybe he was distancing.

This statement was made before qman's alignment was know. Why would he believe qman was scum. I felt like he was setting Fonz up early to look scummy for voting qman when everyone else was voting holy.

This is the main reason you are voting for me? Because The Fonz voting him is one of the main reasons that I think Fonz was scummy.

For the record though, NOBODY else was going to be voting for Holy last night - they were all going to be voting for you. I voted QMan because, as I said, I couldn't vote for The Fonz because he was given immunity. Why was he given immunity? Because MGM and

QMan

gave it to him.

MGM and The Fonz were going into the night intending to be voting you; QMan was also going to vote you Farside. If The Fonz had voted you and not the fonz, the scum would have had a win immediately. However, The FOnz was testing MGM's thoughts shortly before deadline, TOO CLOSE to deadline, and he didn't get a good enough read on him to know if he was goign to follow through on voting you or if he would vote QMan, since hte case was stronger (I think) on QMan. So he hedged his bets, figuring that even if QMan was lynched and he helped lynch him he would have the perfect situation to get a lynch on you the next day. The risk of losing his partner but not being instant lynched was greater than the possibility of the immediate win by voting you. That is primarily why I came into today thinking you were town, coupled with the reading I had started off with yesterday that suggested you were a regular town player. Your actions today, yes, they make me doubt myself a bit, but I guess that is normal.

I am a little upset that you think I am scum because of something that actually happened *today* when you were also suspicious of me yesterday. I think it's impossible to have known I Would say that, so why else are you suspicious of me?

Fos

That's what I think happened.

Also, my apologies, my performance has suffered site wide and knowing this game was on a deadline and waiting fgor Fonz meant I kind of left it at the back burner. I didn't intent to get so clsoe to deadline before posting.

Mod: Can we extend deadline by a week sine this is the terse endgame situation?

[Skruffs]

I kinda want it over with, tbh.

QFT

I've been trying to get people talking for weeks. I need to look back at Fonz's reason for thinking I'm scum and reply back.

The one think Skruff you forgot to mention was the day Holy was lynched Fonz was on the attack against Qman. He brought up a case and voted for him. I still don't understand why you voted for Holy.

I voted for Holy because Holy was going to vote for me, as well as Shanba and a few others. when I voted HOly, I Thought it was eith er aHOly lynch or a ME lynch. Voting HOly made sense.

Don't worry, though, if Fonz is scum he's goign to secretly change his vote to me to ensure a lynch of someone other than him. There's no reason for him to attack me, he just needs to keep you attacking me.

[Skruffs]

Okay.. maybe I am confusing my days here?

Let me take a look, I already explained a LONG TIME ago why I voted the way I did, and I'm not really too sure of what's happened in this game due to all the other stuff.

Fonz, it's not that I am not paying attention to it, it's more that I didn't see it. IT must have been on the last page. I will be back around 2 AM EST and if I have the energy will do a quick synopsis.

MOd: Please an extra 48 hour extension to deadline?

[Skruffs]

Wow, I survived just by being alive at the final polls???
>.> That's interesting.

I had a really, really hard time 'interacting' the final tday because I had to make fonz suspicious by towninizing farside22... I couldn't switch on her because it would have made me look suspicious, so I had to kind of ignore fonz.

Everything I attributed to fonz was actually the exact same situation me and QMan were in the night beforel we could have won by voting farside22 but if all the other players were voting him it would have completely outed me as a liar.

[Skruffs]

QMan and me wasn't really sure who to kill the first night I Replaced in... I wound up sending in a kill on Shanba just because he always winds up getting ridiculously suspicious of me the closer to endgame we get in these kind of games.


I don' tthink it was mentioned that he was a likely power role. >.> It was either "Well MGM is probably cleared" and "Shanba's been razzing on me lately", or something like that.

[Skruffs]

That's the worst thing, when you know, but don't know how to properly explain.I have to deal with that a LOT as town.