Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[Patrick]

Hey guys. I'll reread and post tonight or most likely tomorrow.

[Patrick]

I've read the game, and will give my thoughts on every player. These people are listed in no particular order.

Matt_S

: I can't remember a single post by him that I've liked. I think he's trying to appear a bit more active than he really is, and when he's voting/Fosing people I don't agree with most of it. Don't like his early Guardian vote after a couple of others had expressed suspicion in that direction; I don't think Guardian's asking people to comment on Erg0 is any more likely to come from scum than town, although I'm slightly more lenient on Matt for this because he's a newbie, and newbies often seem to find slightly unusual stuff scummy. Post 190 is a post that several people have critisised and which I didn't like either; I won't bother repeating what others have said on this. I don't like his attacks and eventual vote for Xylthixlm because his reasons seem contrived. Why exactly do Xyl's comments about Adel's algorithm seem scummy to you as opposed to maybe a little annoying or unecessary? This seems like thin reasoning for a vote. I'd also like you to explain why Incognito being aggressive is suspicious to you. All in all, Matt seems like a decent scum candidate.

Xylthixlm

: He can be next since he's been arguing with Matt who I've just commented on. His early use of the word arbitary for daykills lead to a debate that was pointless IMO, but eh, didn't seem scummy. His stance on Guardian early was pretty much same as mine, and most of his other stances in his every player post were reasonable. I quite like his push on Matt, even his push on my predecessor who seemed to be making some weird posts. I can actually see the point Erg0 made in his player by player post about Xyl seeming to move off the opie wagon rather easily, and it could be a be a connection between the two, but Xyl doesn't bother me much at this stage compared to several other people. Around neutral.

ChaosOmega

: Has hardly done anything, not unlike the only time I've played with him (where he was town), but I still don't particularly like it. As far as I can tell, he's saying he hasn't explained his non opie suspicions yet because he wants to observe those two some more, which could be legitimate, but we're half way through our day and there's plenty to work with, so I'd like more from him relatively soon. I don't want him coasting to day 2 using that as an excuse.

Incognito

: I'm reasonably happy with his play so far. Attacked people for smallish reasons early on but felt like a townie eager for discussion rather than a scumbag. Liked his comments on Jitsu which I'll go into more in my section about Jitsu. I'm hot and cold on his case against Guardian, which I'll again defer to the the appropriate section, but regarding Incognito's alignment, I think he's probably protown. He seems to be looking for scum and not afraid of conflict.

Jitsu

: The first post I noted was Post 68 where he started going after Oman. I have to admit at first I thought I'd found a blatant contradiction: He critisised Oman for asking Erg0 whether he has vig abilities, whilst in the same post asking Oman the same thing. But since Oman had already aimed a (fake) daykill at Jitsu, I suppose it wasn't such a bad question afterall. Nevertheless I don't like his attack on Oman; his back and forth with Erg0 looked like pretty obvious banter to me, and I don't see why a "more serious dayvig claim" from Oman is more likely to be come from scum than town. What benefit does a scum get from posting in thread, "Daykill: X"? Maybe it's not

too

bad for an early game kind of thing, but I find it troubling that on page 14 his vote is still on Oman based on the accusation that Oman was seriously fishing from Erg0.

I didn't like Post 129 by Jitsu for similar reasons to those given by Incognito and Erg0. Feels like he backed down when Opie was starting to pick up flak for pushing the Guardian case. I've read through his explanations several times and got a little lost in it I have to admit, but on first impression it hasn't eased my suspicion of him. I'd be more inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt if the rest of his play struck me as protown, but it hasn't really, so he's one of the scummiest players here.

Guardian

: Tricky tricky. Alright, so to start with I don't feel like the original case against him was much good. His asking for comments on the Erg0 wagon was unusual but didn't stick out to me as deserving votes, yet he picked up quite a bit of suspicion for it. Looking at Incognito's later case against him: I don't think Guardian's Post 74 was all that bad myself, he seemed to at least ask some valid questions of his attackers. I think that point (3) by Incognito is somewhat valid, though odd as it might sound I have noticed Guardian doing this in previous games (kind of supporting a suspicion of someone whilst asking for someone else to make the case -- but if I'm intepretting the accusation wrongly then feel free to point it out). I'm not keen on some of Guardian's responses though, particularly Post 225, I don't see how Incognito was contradicting himself here and his next few posts have an OMGUSy edge that I don't care for. The later stuff has made me more suspicious of him but I think there are better suspects out there still.

Erg0

: So far Erg0 has seemed pretty reasonable to me. In fact, so many of his opinions are similar to mine that it's spooky. I could see him being tricky enough as scum to fool me, but nothing he's done has pinged my scumdar, so I'm leaning town.

Adel

: One of the few players here that I have any meta on, and that is that she always looks like scum to me. Looking past that, I'm happy enough with her early play and case against opie, though I don't think the certainty is warranted, and think she's being too lenient on Jitsu, which is a possible connection. (I feel like Jitsu has just as much jumped on a convenient target as opie has). Other than that, the main thing I'm interested in is why she can't see Matt being scum without opie being scum, because I disagree with it. Last time I played with Adel she was scum and seemed different to this, and made much less sense to me in that game, so Adel isn't worrying me too much at this stage.

Opie:

He started the case against Guardian, and I've already established that I wasn't impressed by it. I also don't think his extending it to the other Erg0 wagoners was justified (already said I know blah blah). Since then, his posts haven't seemed so bad to me though. If anything, the biggest thing turning me off this case is the fact that I feel Jitsu is more worthy of attention than he is, and yet has been mentioned relatively less, which may indicate the latter is scum benefitting from some double standard of sorts. Meanwhile Opie has been wagoned up to 4 votes, including a pretty crappy fourth one by ChaosOmega.

Oman

: Early play with the joke case/dayvig seemed fair enough to me to try and get reactions. Oman hasn't stuck out much to me so far, except like some others he seems to be too lenient on Jitsu. Nevertheless, Oman's not a top suspect for me.

pickemgenius

: Seems to be usual brief self in this game. Nothing he's done hit me as particularly town, but most of his stances have seemed ok as well, so pretty much neutral on him. I disagree with his comment that tone can't be read when playing internet mafia, but I suppose that's just a theory thing.

---------------------------------------------

So bah, this got kind of long. After looking at every player, I think I'm happy with a

Vote: Jitsu

.

Matt: What do you think of Jitsu?

Patrick: what did I do wrong? Why haven't I been able to get opie lynched yet?

Still 3 votes shy. I don't feel like he's the best lynch today personally.

[Patrick]

Patrick, why do you prefer a Jitsu lynch to a Matt_S lynch? Your case on Matt_S seems stronger.

Matt is probably my second suspect, but I think the Jitsu case is stronger, and signficantly, seems to have been largely ignored. I feel like I haven't agreed with many of their suspects or votes/FoSes, but Jitsu also has the backtracking point going against him. I'm open to persuasion though.

I didn't particularly catch anything on my read that says they can't be scum together.

[Patrick]

This is correct. He seemed to be casting some suspicion towards opie but he was unwilling to place a vote on him. The vote only came after the case was fostered by Adel and a few people expressed at least minimal support for the case. If you could point me in the direction of this meta that supports that he does this as town, that would be nice.

I caught a bit of a similar vibe off one of his posts in Big Love Mafia (which I wasn't in, but I like to dip into alot of games). It's This Post which he made shortly after Ether replaced in. Particularly the bit where he said, "Could you provide more detailed reasons? At a glance, your suspicions make a lot of sense, though." It seemed like he was kind of supporting it whilst encouraging her to lay out the case. Guardian was town.

Also, in Pick your Poison Mafia, which I was also in as town, Guardian was accused of something similar in the sequence starting with This Post. Kind of waiting to see how other people would react to the case before pushing it further. (Guardian is town, Setael is scum). Also, now I'm thinking about it, in This Post Guardian pretty much completely strawmanned someone's case against him, when that player presented alot of theoretical possibilities and he broke them down and addressed them as if they were all true simultaneously.

These aren't exactly the same as what's happened in this game, but seeing him do those things as town makes me think that there's at least a reasonable chance that he's genuine in saying that he doesn't believe what you've called him out on is scummy. It doesn't make it all go away but does mean that I'm more suspicious of several other people.

=======================================

Votecount #14

opie - 4 (Adel, Oman, Guardian, ChaosOmega)

Guardian - 2 (opie, Incognito)
Jitsu - 2 (Erg0, Patrick)
Oman - 1 (Jitsu)
Xyltixlm - 1 (Matt_S)
TrustGossip - 1 (pickemgenius)
Matt_S - 1 (Xylthixlm)

Not voting - 0 (nobody)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
=======================================

[Patrick]

Erg0, I was a rantbuddy to like 4 of the players in Big Love, but I certainly didn't read it all.

[Patrick]

A word of advice for those preparing metas on other players, comparing day 1 bahavior to behavior on later days is a clear apples to oranges comparison.

Not necessarily. It depends what habit you're looking at.

[Patrick]

@oman do you still feel that Jitsu is pro-town? He was so good as town in our last game together, and I buy him as town so far in this game, that I want to defend him. Care to join me?

You called Opie's early case on Guardian bullshit, and voted him for it. When opie made the case, Jitsu expressed agreement with it, and threw a FoS on Guardian, whilst voting someone who you apparently believe is protown. I tend to think going along with a bad case is worse if anything than putting it forward to start with, so I don't see why you aren't also at least a bit suspicious of Jitsu for supporting a case that you think is crap. Please explain what is so great about Jitsu in this game that makes you think he's town.

[Patrick]

did you hear that ryan just got banned recently for posting a role PM in a game? ABR got me lynched day 1 or day 2 in my next four games after that, he was town aligned in all four and I was only scum in the last one. I was the doctor two of those times. He just posted in MD that he is only going to mod for now on.

Yep, I've heard about all this. Am fairly happy to see ryan gone.

What was notable about my play in Friends and Enemies?

I didn't read it particularly carefully because alot of the discussion turned my brain to mush. I remember thinking you were incredibly scummy early on and wondering how on earth you kept not being lynched as scum. I thought you improved a bit later on.

What was the point of those two questions?

He may be scum.
opie is scum.

I prefer to pick the low-hanging fruit.

You haven't been saying, "Jitsu may be scum" or I'm a little suspicious of him following Opie's case". You've gone out of your way to say you think he's protown and want to defend him. I'm giving you the chance to do that by telling me why you think he's protown.

=======================================

Votecount #15

opie - 3 (Adel, Oman, ChaosOmega)

Jitsu - 3 (Erg0, Patrick, Guardian)
Guardian - 2 (opie, Incognito)
Oman - 1 (Jitsu)
Xyltixlm - 1 (Matt_S)
TrustGossip - 1 (pickemgenius)
Matt_S - 1 (Xylthixlm)

Not voting - 0 (nobody)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
=======================================

[Patrick]

Hmm. That makes a fair bit of sense. Jitsu, please could you respond to Erg0's earlier question. Thanks.

[Patrick]

From this last page, I've liked some of Jitsu's responses. His comments on Guardian seem like honest attempts to discern his alignment and he's gone into it in some depth. I too have noticed how often he keeps asserting that he's innocent, but I can't decide if it's scummy or just something he likes doing. I know a few people who have a habit of doing it regardless of alignment. The possible slip caught by Guardian is interesting, but in my experience those kind of slips aren't that reliable as tells, even if there's no good answer for them. I know Glork seems to make that kind of slip all the time as town.

Anyway, I look forward to hearing from Jitsu about his suspicions.

Still don't like most of Adel's defences of Jitsu, which seem out of proportion. Although, if Jitsu is scum I wouldn't be looking at Adel first.

[Patrick]

Ok, I've caught up on these past few pages and am sceptical of Guardian's claimed thought process. I'm struggling to see how Adel could have had protown role based information telling her that Guardian is town, since we haven't had a night. I see now that Guardian stated "one way masons" but that seems like an incredibly rare role, and if she did have that kind of information I don't see why she would just state it outright at that point. Maybe in the random voting stage as a breadcrumb, where it would be seen as a joke, but in the middle of the day? Seems unlikely. Guardian, is it suspicious that Adel outright stated you were town? I got the sense that it was deliberated and not a slip.

I don't like Post 420 by ChaosOmega, the one quoted by Jitsu. If Guardian is scum, this will be worth another look.

I don't see the attraction of the Incognito/Guardian pairing. Why would Incognito be trying to bus Guardian all game with so many alternatives available? I'm in two minds about a possible Guardian/Jitsu, caused mainly by the post where Guardian voted Jitsu.

Unvote

as I feel somewhat better about Jitsu these past few pages. For the record, I've also been unimpressed by Oman's contribution since I joined the game.

[Patrick]

Guardian, is it suspicious that Adel outright stated you were town?

[Patrick]

I'm getting a kind of quirky town read off Adel.

Matt, what do you think of the recent debates? It seems like you've avoided commenting on most of it.

[Patrick]

This is basically a check in post, must force myself to do some reread tomorrow when it's not 1 am and decide which I'd prefer here because I'm hazy on it. For now though, Incognito, do you agree with the case that Jitsu made against Guardian?

[Patrick]

I think I'd take a Guardian lynch over an opie lynch, though neither one is as good as the hype IMHO. I'm still iffy on Guardians reaction to Adel's provocation; if he knows that Adel does weird shit to incite reactions, I don't see how what she did was scummy, if it wasn't scummy, I don't see why he called her on it if he thought she might have had powerole information clearing him (which I still think is a weird thing to cross someone's mind anyway). I'm also not keen on the makeup of the opie wagon, which seems to have quite a few poor or casual votes on it, which I think is more likely to happen on a day 1 townie wagon. ChaosOmega's in one I mentioned already, but I don't much care for Oman's contribution to it either which was just an agreement with most of Adel's case and has sat there ever since.

After preview, Matt's last seems bizarre. Why would you rather have a second claim on day 1?

[Patrick]

I actually wouldn't mind a stampede of Oman or ChaosOmega at this point. Dunno about Xyl, I might just have a reread of him in isolation in the next hour to see what I think about him.

[Patrick]

I beat Guardian by 13 minutes.

[Patrick]

Vote: ChaosOmega

, I reread him too and he looks worse this time round. All he's done is support the biggest bandwagon with ridiculously vague reasons, seemingly just because it's the easiest route for him. He hasn't elaborated on any of his own suspicions, using this as his excuse:

Also, you only have 1 vote. Even if I provided a fantastic case, I doubt I could pull enough votes to you to cause a lynch. The plurality is focused on opie, and I think it's a good place to look at the moment, as I haven't liked the tone of his posts. I'll follow up with my suspicions of you once more things clear up.

Which is stupid. It's the job of a protown player to follow up on all their suspicions. There's no reason why he couldn't have made a case good enough to convince a majority, and even if he hadn't succeeded, the reactions/discussion coming from it would have been undoubtedly helpful, especially if the guy he made the case against was scum. I thought he was going to step up later in the day when I replaced in, but that's obviously not the case, and he's also posted in Little Italy since being prodded but seems to have carefully avoided this game. I reread his posts in the game I played with him where he was town, and although he lurked, he was less vague/opportunistic than this.

I don't much care for the propoganda I'm seeing for lynching opie, and I think the attacks on Erg0 are silly. Also I don't get why like 3 people have attacked him and not even mentioned me; it seems like I'm doing something similar to him. Scratch that thing about town vibes from Adel.

Xyl still needs to answer Guardian's question about whether or not he wants to rush pickem, the guy who he's labelled obvscum.

After reading the preview and seeing the votecount, I see Guardian unvoted opie. How come?

[Patrick]

You've been beaten m8.

[Patrick]

Patrick -- it amuses me how no one reads your questions when you append them to long posts. Me, PEG, now Erg0. lol.

In this case it was a simul post. But yeah. Haha.

[Patrick]

I disagree that Erg0 was pseudo claiming anything, and think Guardian has made an entirely too big deal out of it. Even if he had pseudo claimed vanilla, I'm not sure why that would be scummy as opposed to just bad play.

In fact, if you are scum, I'd say you're setting up for a claim.

You're saying if Erg0 is scum, he was setting himself up to claim vanilla, and was going to point to that as a breadcrumb?

Also, I'm having trouble working out exactly what you think of Erg0, it seems to alternate between thinking he's scum who needs running up tomorrow and thinking he's town.

======================================================

Votecount #24

opie - 5 (Oman, ChaosOmega, pickemgenius, Xylthixlm, Guardian)

Guardian - 4 (opie, Incognito, Jitsu, Adel)
Xylthixlm - 1 (Erg0)
ChaosOmega - 1 (Patrick)


Not voting - 1 ( Matt_S)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
================================================

[Patrick]

the CO wagon totally fits my expectation for what a late wagon, driven by scum, as an alternative to their scumbuddy's wagon. Fos: Patrick and Erg0

This seems counter intuitive to me, but eh, whatever. Anyway, the guy deserves votes. He's pretty blatantly avoiding the game close to deadline.

[Patrick]

I'll explain everything tomorrow after opie hangs.

Are you confident of being around tomorrow? Why wait?

[Patrick]

Oman is a less interesting and scummier version of Adel in this game.

[Patrick]

What about Incognito?

[Patrick]

Patrick, what was the point of this question anyway?

Nothing beyond the obvious. He mentioned you as one of the 3 players he found suspicious, and he's "explained" his suspicions of opie and Xyl, so I wondered what he thought of you. I'll reiterate that I don't see the attraction of the Incognito/Guardian pairing.

Regarding the last few posts, I don't see how that's WIFOM. It's just making judgements about how we think scum behave, which is the game of mafia.

It looks like opie is going to be our lynch today. It's a good information giving lynch, but I think he'll more likely than not show up town. If he does, I'll almost guarantee at least one of the lower profile people on his wagon is scum. Erg0's list isn't a bad place to start, pickemgenius could easily be scum too. If opie is scum, I'll have to revise my view of the game slightly, although again, I'd be suprised if there wasn't at least one buser on there. I've read Xyl again, and I think his opie vote looks somewhat lazy considering that there were 5-6 days left until deadline (we got 4 votes on ChaosOmega in far less than that afterall). He had the time to try and get pickem (his suspected obvscum) lynched and go back to opie if that wasn't working, but chose not too.

[Patrick]

In his post 4 he mentioned a top 3 LoS of opie, Xyl, Incognito. That's why I asked about you, the only one he hadn't elaborated on. His answers are pretty much the definition of wishy washy.

[Patrick]

I make it just over 2 hours we have left.

I kind of share the concern about lynching without a claim, it's not something I ever like doing. If would be helpful if ChaosOmega showed up. I think I prefer to lynch CO without a claim than lynch opie with the vanilla claim though.

Jitsu, you've been hovering round alot today. What do you make of all this?

[Patrick]

Shit. A cop claim 9 minutes before deadline? Did you really only just show up now, or are you scum trying a last minute confusion tactic? No counterclaim from me. Anyone else? Quickly?

======================================================

Votecount #28

ChaosOmega - 6 (Patrick, Erg0, Matt_S, Incognito, Xylthixlm, Guardian)

opie - 4 (Oman, ChaosOmega, pickemgenius, Adel)
Guardian - 2 (opie, Jitsu)

Not voting - 0 (

nobody

)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
================================================

5 minutes remain

[Patrick]

CO would be lynched if deadline was now, Incognito. If he's the cop, he had to claim. Or really, he had to claim EARLIER.

[Patrick]

Unvote

[Patrick]

Bleh.

I agree that it seems very unlikely we'd have 3 investigative roles, so ChaosOmega is likely the play today. The manner in which he claimed was pretty scummy too. We might as well see what "result" he has to give us though, on the offchance he's for real.

[Patrick]

Ok. So if ChaosOmega is a cop, he's either insane or paranoid. Assuming there's no other cop claim, does anyone know whether vollkan is a bastard mod type of guy? Having a single non sane cop in any game is very very rare, I'm not sure I've even seen a case of it happening. ChaosOmega choosing to claim so close to deadline looks terrible for him; he knew when the deadline was, and it looks entirely too convenient that he claimed when he did, at a time when scum would obviously want to do it as a last minute confusion tactic. If he's legit, that's awful play, as is the rest of his play in general. Investigating Guardian is plausible for him to have done as cop, but that's about the only thing going for him.

I don't really think Guardian was killed as a way to setup Erg0, and don't find that avenue particularly interesting. I do think Erg0 is probably town if ChaosOmega is mafia; I think he's been acting generally town all game and the vote on ChaosOmega doesn't hurt. Same for Incognito, who sounded particularly genuine to me yesterday. I'm not sure how much to analyse the scummier people for possible buddies of ChaosOmega, which would be a total waste of time if ChaosOmega is actually a cop, or even an SK as has been suggested. I have to say when I read the opening flavour of the game I felt like it emphasised a town v mafia kind of game and there would be no SK, but after last night it definitely seems possible.

I too would like Adel to explain what she chose not to explain yesterday, and why she chose not to.

If CO is mafia, then they have cut loose their damaged goods and distanced themselves from a fakeclaim, while looking town in the process.

I guess this is possible. I won't be giving any credit for being on his lynch if he turns out to be mafia though. The real information is from yesterday, especially with two innocent wagons going on.

[Patrick]

I'll explain later.

How much later?

[Patrick]

I somewhat agree with the comments from Incognito about Oman. Even without rereading his posts, I got the sense he didn't do that much yesterday, and coasted on the opie vote. He did go after Erg0, but I haven't seen many arguments against Erg0 that I agree with, and I still am not entirely sure what Oman even thinks of Erg0, as it seems to have flip flopped alot.

Matt, I'd say generally a knife kill is SKish type of flavour, though I'm not ruling anything out at this point.

======================================================

Votecount #30

ChaosOmega - 2 (Erg0, Adel)

Not voting - 7 (Matt_S, ChaosOmega, Xylthixlm, Patrick, Jitsu, Incognito, Oman)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

[Patrick]

Is this some kind of joke?

[Patrick]

Why does this come as a surprise to everyone? She pretty much admitted that the case against opie was pure bullshit here:

I thought she was backing down on the "he's communicating something to scumbuddies" point. I didn't see that as applying to the whole case. In fact I doubt she was doing what you said she is there, because she's claiming the people on the lynch had to be unaware that it was random.

Adel, what do you think of Oman?

[Patrick]

I will laugh so hard if Adel turns out to be town and Chaos and Oman are both scumbags.

[Patrick]

sometimes gambits work.

I know. If you're gambitting as town and caught scum with it then I'll applaud you, and literally lol.

[Patrick]

Adel is the person I'm having the hardest time deciding about right now. Most of her stances yesterday seemed totally off, and she did try and turn off the ChaosOmega wagon by intimidating those on it, which is bad if he's scum. I could see her gambitting as either alignment, as town exactly as she claims, as scum making all this up to try and wash her hands of her play yesterday. I don't think it was a great play if she's town, but it doesn't strike me as crazy as it was when I first read it.

Oman's play is reminding me of last time we played together, where he was scum. At this point, I wouldn't be suprised at all if ChaosOmega and Oman are scum together. Heck, I could still see the whole of Erg0's list from near the end of yesterday being correct. I'd say if ChaosOmega is mafia then Matt's favourability goes up a bit for voting him when there were two town wagons available, and he'd already set the groundwork for a vote on opie.

Xyl's behaviour near the end of yesterday still bothers me. He kept citing saving Guardian as his reason for voting opie, and I'm not keen on Post 652 if ChaosOmega is scum. I don't think lack of interactions is a strong reason not to vote someone on day 1, and his other reason was that he didn't think the CO wagon would overtake the Guardian wagon, which makes little sense since a vote from him on CO would have caused exactly that to happen. Further, Incognito switched his vote from Guardian to CO one post later, and Xyl posted several times with some critisism of CO, but still didn't vote him. In his favour, he did vote ChaosOmega later on, at a time where it could clearly have made a difference. I still think he's a decent candidate.

I need to reread Jitsu soon, because I'm conflicted on him.

Oman, what are your opinions on people who are not ChaosOmega?

[Patrick]

It's pretty clear to me that if he was really a cop then he'd be making some kind of effort to avoid being lynched. If he's not caught scum I'll eat my proverbial hat.

This is also what I've been thinking.

I liked Patrick's post above. Patrick, are we sharing the same brain?

^5

Xyl, what do you think of Oman?
Oman, what do you think of Xyl?

/obvious line of questioning

[Patrick]

I haven't noticed anything particularly scummy about Oman. The only point against him seems to be that he followed Adel's wagon on opie, but so did Guardian and pickemgenius, which suggests that Adel may have done at least as good a job attracting townies as he did attracting scum.

I don't like this argument. It's like you're saying that Oman being on the crapwagon yesterday is ok because Guardian and pickemgenius were both on it and we know them to be protown. There were a total of 5 people on the lynchwagon yesterday, and 6 people who voted opie if we count you, of course some of those players are going to be town. Even if it was the kind of wagon that scum were attracted too, at least half the people on it were probably town. You're also ignoring the fact that ChaosOmega was on it and he's looking rather likely to be scum.

By the way, Oman's play with regards to opie isn't the only point against him. I consider the fact that he doesn't appear to be scumhunting to be a point against him too.

I've taken a look at Jitsu. It still feels like he got off comparatively lightly compared to opie, when at least some of what opie got flak for was stuff Jitsu did too. If Adel truly did wagon him randomly then that explains her lack of attacking him, but there were still other people. Since being attacked his posting has seemed more solid to me though.

Might be connected to ChaosOmega, since he was very noncommital about whether or not he was going to vote him at the end of yesterday, and if I hadn't asked him to give an opinion on it, I'm not even sure that he was going to come forward at all. However, I think Jitsu and Oman are probably not scum together, because of the early interactions. Jitsu attacks Oman for dayvig joke, and Oman's reaction looks like he's buddying up to him a bit by overdoing the praise and giving him a townie brownie. Buddying up doesn't usually happen between two scum on the same team.

[Patrick]

I don't mind admitting that the last page or so has really confused me.

I don't think that Oman's scumminess is dependant on CO's alignment, and I too don't understand how he might slip away if we lynch CO first, regardless of what CO is. I think some of Xlythixlm's scumminess is reliant on ChaosOmega turning up as mafia.

[Patrick]

I missed something. Why are we considering the possibility that ChaosOmega is a SK?

Is there some reason we shouldn't be?

[Patrick]

Second time lucky Incog

[Patrick]

I'm on iffy internet access, just as a heads up.

One thing I ask in the meanwhile: while I'm not sure there is much I can do to explain C_O's actions, as I am not C_O, are there major points of contention other than the fact I'm a cop (a cop with a guilty on Guardian^1, nonetheless)? If so, I'd appreciate that those be brought up -- even just saying "my thoughts in post X still stand".

My comments in Post 551 still stand. There's also the timing of the claim as Erg0 pointed out, which is consistent with scum just wanting to confuse us at the last minute (which might I spose indicate he's mafia and not SK), and the fact that his silence today is consistent with scum who's given up, whereas a cop would be more likely to try and defend themselves, and give us their suspicions. I realise much of this can't really be explained by you, but I find it pretty damning overall, together with the fact that the claim doesn't fit well into the setup as we know it.

I just want to point out that Oman is still doing next to nothing at this point, and certainly hasn't answered the many questions put to him by Incognito. Oman remains my clear second suspect, and more suspicious than Adel by a reasonable degree, in my opinion. There are a few things I have to say regarding Adel's post 923, but I'll follow Jitsu's example here and await Guardian's thoughts.

[Patrick]

Too short of time right now unfortunately to comment on Guardian's suspicions, but I'll just make a few points about his defences:

I'm not sure what I can say about C_O posting infrequently and without much substance. Those are just scummy things to do, and I can't defend them. However, someone posited that that was consistent with his scum meta -- is it inconsitent with his town meta? He might just always be a scummy lurker.

I've played with him once as town. In that game I recall him being fairly lurkerish, but also less vague/wishy washy and less opportunistic with his suspects. I'll recheck that when I get the time, but I remember it didn't sway me when I decided to place my vote on him yesterday.

Then there is the subject of the manner in which he claimed. Really, I can't fault him for that. Checking in and claiming seems like a reasonable thing to do, as was not claiming until the last possible moment. Until a couple of hours before deadline, it seemed that he would not have to claim -- and no one, especially power roles, should claim unless they have to.

Personally as a cop, I'd have claimed the minute Xyl switched his vote to put me and opie at 5 apiece, if I thought there was any chance I wouldn't be around later, though maybe that's partly playstyle. I would assuredly not leave it until 5 minutes before unless I were scum. Note ChaosOmega himself admits he should have claimed earlier.

As for why he left the game and needed replacement -- I don't know the answer. I think the mod said the timer on his prod expired, right? His being replaced might have little to do with the in game situation, considering that. I don't think it is fair to assume that he left because he was being attacked. Even if he left because he was being attacked, I've seen players do that as town before. I don't think his exit is nearly as suspicious as his play day 1.

Well, we know he's been around, both from his posts on site and the fact that he picked up his prod. So he hasn't disappeared. Given that he hasn't requested replacement in other games, it's fair to say he hasn't had any kind of crisis that forced him to leave. So whilst we can't know for certain, I find it reasonably likely that his lack of motivation to do anything today is because he was scum.

======================================================

Votecount #38

Guardian - 2 (Erg0, Oman)

Oman - 1 (Incognito)
Matt_S- 1 (Guardian)

Not voting - 5 (Matt_S, Xylthixlm, Patrick, Jitsu, Adel)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

[Patrick]

Somehow I find reasonably likely that he was a cop and was like "well, I'm fucked" and gave up.

It's possible given how lazy he seems to be. A cop would obviously have much more motivation to post than a scumbag though.

I'm not interested in lynching Matt_S today.

I'd like to hear your reasoning behind this.

Seconded, after seeing the last post.

[Patrick]

Patrick, wouldn't a scumbag have as much if not more incentive to defend himself from lynch than a cop? I'm not sure I understand your assumption.

I think a protown powerole would be more willing to post in this situation than a scum. If ChaosOmega is town, I think he'd want to be on record with his suspicions at the very least. I could see scum clamming up if they think that they won't be able to talk their way out of trouble, and that by continuing the act they might just leave links to scumbuddies. A cop would have no such disincentive. I've seen doomed scum stop posting in the past, and I know that in his position, I'd be far more likely to post as town than as scum. I also feel, although it may be somewhat naive, that ChaosOmega as cop would realise that if we mislynch him we'd be in dire straits, and that would motivate him to try harder to defend himself. I say it may be naive, because I'm not sure if he's the kind of player that would feel any sense of duty to the town as an innocent.

It seems fairly intuitive to me *shrug*.

[Patrick]

However, don't scum always have an incentive to defend themselves? There's usually just 3 scum in a mini normal, maybe 2 if there is an SK. Scum have a huge incentive to not just roll over and die.

If he's scum, he may have decided that he had no chance of escaping, and could not further help his team by talking. So he shut up. If he's town, that could never be true, he could always help his team more by talking. I'm not saying clamming up would necessarily be the best play for scum, just that it seems more likely to come from scum than town in this situation.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that I can definitely see your perspective, but want to show you that it isn't the only perspective, and in this case isn't the correct one. In theory, C_O should have not lurked day 1 or day 2, made lots of cases, not been replaced, and been an A+ townie. His lackings in that regard are regrettable, but him being lurker-scum isn't the only plausible interpretation of his play here.

I agree that it's not the only plausible explanation. It's possible that ChaosOmega has simply played a dreadful game as town, and done alot of scummy looking things, happens to have a claim that doesn't seem to fit into the setup, and simply decided he couldn't be bothered anymore. If that is the case, I'll give him a mouthful postgame, even though I doubt he'll even read it, let alone care. What I'm saying is, I think his actions and claim can be better explained by him being scum. The argument you've made here could be made as an argument against lynching anyone. Unless they're 100% confirmed scum, any lynch candidate could just be a townie who made mistakes and hasn't played in the best possible way.

I guess what's really drawn me away from my Guardian vote now is the fact that Oman jumped on Chaos_Omega's wagon so quickly at the start of Day 2. I know we've reasoned the possibility of CO being an SK but I really don't trust Oman, I feel like he's definitely scum, and his jump on that bandwagon really made me reconsider my vote, yet again.

Are you saying you think this disassociates them in some way? Because if you are, I disagree. I've often seen scum being too eager to vote/hammer their partners, and if ChaosOmega is mafia, I think his buddies probably saw him as a routine bus the minute we saw two dead investigative roles.

I'll respond to Guardian tomorrow. A bit sleepy right now considering it's midnight.

Weak. It's coming up to 5 am here

I agree that we don't need to rush this, and I'll probably have more to say tomorrow after some sleep.

[Patrick]

Guardian, you seemed pretty suspicious of Erg0 yesterday, but your response to him today suggests you think he's protown. What caused that change of heart?

Incognito, what do you think of Xlythixlm?

[Patrick]

Looking over Guardian's suspicions, his case against Matt_S is similar to alot of the reasons I suspected Matt for when I entered the game. As I've settled into the game more I've found myself being less suspicious of him, though I'm not sure if that's because of any improvement in his play or just because I've been seeing a whole lot more scummy behaviour from several other players. I don't find him nearly as suspicious as a whole bunch of other people. I agree with Guardian's case against Oman, and it's similar to alot of stuff I've said already about him. And Adel, I don't know what to think. She's been confusing me all game, and just as I think I've almost made sense of what she's doing, she goes and does or says something that makes no sense to me again. She's 4th on my list at the moment.

I think the lynch today really should be either Guardian or Oman. I haven't found Guardian himself to be particularly scummy, but nor has he done much to change my mind about ChaosOmega. I've been set a few times to say that I'm only willing to lynch him today, but then I keep looking at Oman's posts and they're so damn scummy. I'm struggling to see why a protown player would act as Oman has. Erg0, you're an Oman expert. Have you seen him playing anything like this as town before? Could he be this bad as town? Right now he strongly reminds me of last time we met, and that's not good news.

It has to be one of those two IMO. I could see Xlythixlm as scum with either or both of them, but I think there's less evidence against him. I'll try and decide which one to go for soon, but that's where I am right now.

[Patrick]

^^ What he said. Sorry, this game slipped to the back of my mind for a while.

[Patrick]

Wow, that's interesting. I'm glad I wasn't wrong in my ChaosOmega suspicions, one way or the other. I'm happy with a Guardian lynch now -- the risk of lynching town is gone there. If he is an SK, then I don't trust the whole, "keep me alive and I'll act as a vig" thing anyway. I'll explain why in more detail if necessary, but I imagine people can work out for themselves why that's a very slippery path to take.

I'll hold off putting him at lynch-1 just to allow everyone to weigh in on this, but I won't be supporting any other lynch today. Spirit vote.

[Patrick]

optimal play is for crosskills.

You believe his claim? Any particular reason for that?

[Patrick]

I want patrick to explain why in more detail, it is necessary.

Even if we assume for a second that he's definitely an SK, it's extremely risky to keep him alive. He has an anti town win condition, so we know that anything he's saying is to help keep himself alive. If there comes a situation where it's in his best interests to go against our wishes, he'll do it without hesitation, and that kind of situation could easily arise (where we couldn't lynch him because we'd immediately lose to the mafia).

But really, I see no reason to assume he's telling the truth anyway. I was leaning towards voting him even with the cop claim, all his new claim has done is removed any possibility that he's protown, making it a more solid lynch. I don't see how claiming SK has made it anymore likely that he actually is an SK, can you explain to why you think so? I think it's likely Guardian is mafia.

[Patrick]

this is exactly the rationale mafia would forward. look, the town right now is at an underpowered disadvantage, and our best chance is for guardian to nk mafia members.

This is bullshit. You haven't even addressed the argument at all, you've just accused me. You don't seem to be taking into account the large chance that Guardian is mafia. Wow, seriously, if you're town, your play disgusts me.

I'm honestly baffled by the suggestion that I'm mafia claiming SK. That just seems like such a huge stretch to me. I really don't know how to respond to that; I'm just not.

Why is it such a stretch? You can't think of a single argument, so you just use this rhetoric? I want you to explain clearly why you can't possibly be mafia doing this. Don't even try to dodge it, because it sticks out a mile when you try and do that.

Really, the people who are voting/thinking highly of voting me and want me lynched immediately (e.g. Erg0, Oman, Patrick) -- that's actually a slight scum tell. The mafia must be absolutely writhing right now about me possibly not getting lynched, and would love to just hammer and get me dead. Food for thought^.

Actually, I'm not voting you, and don't want you lynched immediately. I am holding off, because Incognito mentioned some analysis of Adel he wants to post, and if you're at lynch-1, you could conceivably self hammer. So I'm waiting for that. It is true that I do want you lynched today.

I'd like the people who are defending Guardian to address either my arguments about it or Erg0's arguments, which have some overlap. In particular, I want someone to explain why they believe Guardian is telling the truth about being an SK, because some people seem to be glazing right over that.

I think Guardian is mafia, probably with Oman and Xylthixlm. Adel is a reasonable reserve, but her play looks more insane/retarded than outright scummy, and the group of 3 fits together quite well.

Note: I've got no home access at the moment. Hopefully it will be fixed soon.

[Patrick]

Pretty much, I can't think of any possible argument to make. When I claimed, I hadn't conceived of the possibility that mafia might ever claim to be an SK in any scenario. That thought was not on my mind, I was thinking how, in my scenario, to salvage being lynched today. I'm just not mafia.

This is just a denial, which is worthless in mafia. You've said that it's crazy to think you could be mafia doing this, so I expect you to present reasons why that's the case. You haven't because you don't have any. End of story I guess.

Let's be clear, no one's defending me, their just realizing that the rational play is to not lynch me today.

Eh? This equates to defending you, because they're trying to keep you alive today. And stop repeating that letting you live is rational play. It quite clearly isn't.

Okay, this really is the most frustrating bullshit ever. I'm a freaking SK. I figured out that it made sense to claim my role, and now multiple people are bringing up Oh, but what if he really is mafia claiming SK. Give me a break, people. I figured out, as SK, how to benefit myself and the town *by claiming SK*. Don't mess that up for me and the town by WIFOMing yourself to death about how I could possibly be mafia.

Again, a worthless denial, with a little emotion to make it look better. You've got nothing here.

Other than crass paranoia... why? The impetus on you is to show how it is a plausible scenario that I'm mafia claiming SK, and at least nearing the likelihood that I'm SK claiming SK. Trying to lynch me off of parania that I'm some godlike mafia player who realized, as mafia, that he needed to claim SK... I mean, wtf, really...

Well... whatever flavour of scum you are, you decided that the cop claim wasn't enough, so you went for an SK claim to try and stay alive. That's reasonable play from an SK, and reasonable play from mafia. We definitely have a mafia in this game, probably with 3 members, and we don't even know we have an SK. Why is it

not

reasonable to think you might be mafia?

My suggestion of a Guardian/Oman/Xylthixlm mafia is not "crass paranoia". Those are the three players who I find scummiest in this game, and you fit together reasonably well as a mafia group (no obvious disassociations). I've already explained my suspicions quite extensively, and I don't have time to write a novel now, because I'm on limited time at the library.

Anyway, if at some point you want to present a decent argument for why you can't possibly be mafia scum, or a decent rebuttal to anything I've said, feel free. But don't waste my time with with appeals to emotion or denials or insults to my intelligence.

[Patrick]

Xylthixlm, what's your take on Guardian? Who's the play?

[Patrick]

Home access still down. Boy this game is growing fast.

If we're at 5 town, 3 mafia, 1 SK, we need to lynch mafia today. Full stop. Lynching the SK is not an option with any chance of winning.

I think this is far from clear, but I won't argue with particular point right now.

I was pretty well convinced that Adel was an SK, and Guardian^2 mafia. Guardian's SK claim blows that theory out of the water. If Guardian is mafia, claiming SK is an extremely gutsy move; his claim would be flattened if someone else claimed the Guardian^1 kill. I'm inclined to think he's telling the truth.

This is flawed logic, which could actually be bordering on a slip from you.

Why are you ignoring the possibility that the Guardian1 kill was performed by the mafia

and that Guardian2 is mafia? Is it because you know that the mafia didn't kill Guardian1 last night? Also note: I could see a possibility where Guardian2 is mafia, the mafia killed pickem last night, and that Guardian is claiming SK to try and get a feel for who the gun killer is from the reactions.

I see that this has been mentioned by Incog and Erg0 in later posts. I agree with them.

Vote: Guardian

. I think it's the hammer, and I think we've had a good amount of information from today.

If Guardian is mafia and I'm not around tomorrow, I can only reiterate that I like Oman and Xylthixlm as his buddies. Xylthixlm's play today has been pretty scummy, I got the vague feeling 24 hours ago that he was holding back on giving an opinion on the whole Guardian claims SK issue, so he could wait to see which way the wind blew, which is why I asked his opinion. I haven't liked his play much in general, as I've discussed already in several previous posts, and his defence of Guardian2 today hasn't improved my opinion of him. ChaosOmega's day 1, "your posts are just useless bullshit" comment to Xylthixlm look vaguely like distancing.

If Guardian is an SK and I'm not around, still look at Xyl and Oman as possible scumbuddies. Xylthixlm has been way too lenient on Oman all game, including a craplogical defence of him which I discussed in post 849. Oman's play today has been consistently scummy, no attempts to scumhunt or contribute anything real to the discussion.

As for others, Adel is possible scum in either scenario, with Jitsu and Matt_S being my other possibles. I'm pretty sure both Inconito and Erg0 are town, and if Guardian is mafia that will pretty much confirm my view.

[Patrick]

Thanks for raising this issue and hammering in the same post. I actually addressed this in my post, then realized the explanation didn't add anything but wordiness and deleted it. If Guardian1 was the mafia kill, then someone claiming the pickemgenius kill would have logically meant that Guardian1 was the mafia kill, which would have screwed Guardian2 just as much as if Guardian1 wasn't the mafia kill and someone else claimed it.

I decided to hammer because I felt like the day had gone on long enough, and I was mainly putting out my thoughts in case I was killed. I didn't particularly feel like giving Adel another chance to change her mind and unvote, particularly considering how difficult it seemed to be getting a claimed scum lynched.

Since it turns out that Guardian2 was mafia, that means that the second killer decided not to claim their kill (whichever one it was), which raises the chance that we do have an SK.

Not particularly. I think any vig that had information suggesting Guardian was lying would only have come forward if absolutely necessary to secure a lynch.

My top suspects remain the same, but no vote just yet.

[Patrick]

If Guardian1 was the mafia kill, then someone claiming the pickemgenius kill would have logically meant that Guardian1 was the mafia kill, which would have screwed Guardian2 just as much as if Guardian1 wasn't the mafia kill and someone else claimed it.

This explanation doesn't make much sense to me either. If Guardian2 was mafia and Guardian1 was the mafia kill, the mafia would have known that pickem was killed by either a vig or an SK. No SK would have come forward to claim the kill, and any vig who'd killed pickem still wouldn't know whether Guardian2 was mafia or SK. So I don't see how this would have screwed him over. Even aside from that issue, it seems you didn't even consider the possibility that Guardian was mafia simply trying to get a feel for who the other killer was before he went down. Your defence of him looks very bad.

[Patrick]

If someone else claimed the Guardian1 kill, there were three possibilities: Either Guardian2 is lying, the other person is lying, or there are three killers (Guardian2, mafia, and the other person).

If someone else claimed the pickemgenius kill, there were three possibilities: Either Guardian2 is lying, the other person is lying, or there are three killers (Guardian2, mafia, and the other person).

Guardian2 is exactly the same amount of screwed either way.

This seems like a very misleading way of presenting the facts. I explained in my last post why a vig claiming the pickem kill would not have meant Guardian2 was screwed, since it wouldn't say anything about whether Guardian was mafia or SK. By contrast, a vig claiming the Guardian1 kill would have meant Guardian was directly lying about who he killed, unless Guardian1 was killed by two groups and it just didn't show in the nightscene. Meanwhile an SK wouldn't claim in either situation. Presenting the situations in the way you've done doesn't make them the same.

Also, why did you ignore the possibility that Guardian was mafia trying to draw out the real killer (even after people brought it up)?

Nice...you know that I was on the guardian wagon, which is what you said Erg0 was town for?

There's a fairly large difference between the way in which you voted ChaosOmega/Guardian, and the way in which Erg0 did. With that said, Xylthixlm's attemps to deflect it bother me more than the way you just sat on it.

[Patrick]

I thought I had said something about that, but I looked through my posts for a quote and apparently I didn't. Odd.

Yeah. Very odd.

A vig claiming the pickem kill would have meant Guardian2 was screwed, since the mafia kill would then be unaccounted for, and logically it would be the Guardian1 kill - which would mean Guardian2 was claiming the mafia kill, which would get him lynched just as surely as him claiming the vig kill would. I'm really not sure why you're not getting this logic.

This still wouldn't screw him in this situation. The mafia kill could easily have failed somehow. He would still claim that he killed Guardian1 as an SK, and that the mafia kill was blocked or bounced (maybe on ChaosOmega for example, since he did claim unightkillable).

So apparently when I try to use logic and actually analyze the game, everyone's confirmation bias kicks in. I might as well just be oracular.

For the record, if you're legit, you've played a poor game so far.

Oman is scum. I'm dithering between Incognito or Patrick for the other.

You forgot to provide your reasoning.

[Patrick]

Pretty much the same excuses would apply if someone else claimed the Guardian1 kill, although you're right about the kill immunity part. (I was discounting it as WIFOM, so it didn't occur to me that it could be used to explain a missing kill.)

If someone had claimed the Guardian1 kill, that would have shown Guardian2 was lying about killing him. The nightscenes are fairly detailed, I'd expect it to show up if someone had been killed multiple times.

Graduating college and getting a real job, plus 2 hours of commuting every day, has cut down on the attention I can pay to mafiascum.

Sorry about that.

Gut. That's why it's being oracular.

I was parodying what you said to ChaosOmega on day 1, neverthless I can't at all see where these would come from, except the Oman one, but I've been getting the impression you haven't been finding him that scummy.

I need to reread parts of the game. I'm sure I have other stuff to say here.

[Patrick]

Previously I thought Oman was scummier than Xylthixlm, but recent stuff has been making me reconsider it and think maybe Xylthixlm should be deadified.

Xyl seems to have gone into misdirection overdrive today: all this kill claiming stuff is irrelevant at this point and doesn't really inform us of anything.

The debate between me and Xyl on this subject today probably doesn't seem that interesting to outsiders, but the reason I've been pushing it is I really feel like he used craplogic to defend Guardian yesterday. As a short version, his, "I doubt Guardian would be ballsy enough to claim SK as mafia" just didn't hold up at all, and I have trouble believing he couldn't see that.

[Patrick]

That's true but one of the three people he listed as scum was NK-ed last night as town (Adel). His top choice was Matt_S and his third choice was Oman. Could the order of his scum choices been suggestive of anything?

I'd hazard a guess he chucked a scumbuddy in the list, and I'm sure you can guess who I think that is, but Erg0's right that we can't really be setting much store by it, unless Guardian was somehow very optimistic of his chances of survival. I suppose what you're getting at is that Guardian seemed to push his Adel/Matt_S suspicions more than his Oman ones. The reason it's wifomy is that Guardian could be the type of guy who'd continue trying to confuse the town until he was literally strung up. We saw how he was keeping up an act of pretty much hysterical indignation right up until the end.

[Patrick]

Vote: Xylthixlm

[Patrick]

My conclusions are whilst not being overly "townie" I find him to be unconventional town rather than, as matt_s is, conventional scum.

Why did you vote for Xylthixlm yesterday?

[Patrick]

Does anyone other than Xylthixlm have an opinion on Xyl's logic today regarding why he defended Guardian? It seems to me that it makes no sense at all, but most people seem to be just glossing over it so maybe I'm hallucinating. If I'm missing something that actually means what he's said makes sense, someone please tell me what it is. Oman's play continues to be scummy in the same vein today as it always has been; wishy washy attack on two players, stereotypical scum on scum assessment of Xylthixlm, and no real attempts to convince anyone that his cases are correct.

I still love a Xylthixlm/Oman mafia, but will be reading soon to check out what other scumgroups look plausible. I still think there's no Oman/Jitsu because of Oman's tone towards Jitsu early day 1. Whilst an SK is still possible, I get turned off the idea whenever I look at the opening post flavour, even though I suppose mods do occasionally deliberately mislead. My money would still be on no SK though.

[Patrick]

Keep in mind that kill flavour can change even when coming from the same group. Adel linked us to Theoville where she shot, stabbed and butchered various people as a vig. The mafia kill method also changed each night.

[Patrick]

Patrick, what exactly about the opening post flavor suggests to you there is no SK? How do you account for the Pickem kill if there is no SK?

Odd question. The front post tells us all about the mafia invading the town, the mafia killing the dashing vollkan, and leaving their sig on his forehead. We're then told to look for the identities of those responsible [for vollkans death]. We're not told to look for anything else. As I said, I suppose it's possible the mod is deliberately misleading us, but that kind of opening surely implies we're just dealing with a mafia. In my experience anyway. The last mini normal I played in (Tapioca Mafia) was similar in that regard. You don't read it that way? As for pickem's death, that could have been caused by mafia, SK or vig couldn't it?

I agree that the mafia probably have some power, maybe a GF and/or roleblocker. The existance of a dead "mafia goon" already implies it (a mafia without abilities usually just has it's members listed as "mafia". I don't think GF is unlikely -- I could easily see there being an unightkillable GF.

Others should weigh in on the idea of a massclaim, but I'm starting to think it's a good idea.

[Patrick]

I have another reason. Did you read the flavor text really closely? Notice that the calling card carved into our late beloved Mayor Vollkan's forehead said "Mafia has arrived" (that is: Mafia, singular), not "[The] Mafia have arrived," (that is: Mafia, plural) which would be the more grammatically correct and natural way of saying things, according to your interpretation.

I'm thinking vollkan's forehead wasn't big enough for the extra word But seriously, I would consider it somewhat misleading from the mod if there does turn out to be an SK in the game. I think it's likely we'll have to just agree to disagree on this point, I can respect the point of view of not wanting to read anything into opening text, but I can't help but let it affect my judgement a bit here.

[Patrick]

Xylthixlm, you've been defending Oman most of the game, and even kind of defended him today. What has suddenly made you think he's scum? Also, do you plan on trying to convince anyone that either Incognito or Patrick is scum too?

[Patrick]

Extra mafia kills are indeed rare. I can only think of one game off the top of my head where I've seen it, so I wouldn't get too carried away with the idea. I could imagine a situation where mafia kill flavour varies depending on which member is sent out to perform the kill (and we know scum must be sending out a specific member to kill each night because of our dead watcher and tracker roles).

[Patrick]

I realize that they're rare but it seems like everyone's completely clueless about who the other killer is and why a second body didn't go down last night. I would think that if a member of the town had this information (especially if that member of the town was a one-shot vig) he would come forward with this information to help shed some light on the situation. Since nobody has come forward though, it leads me to believe that the mafia have this information and that an extra mafia kill may have been performed on Night 1. Perhaps it's even the reason why we had both a tracker and a watcher in our set-up. I would think that games would normally have only one investigative role instead of a pair.

I think this is misguided. I think it's fair to assume that regardless of their alignment, our second killer has been trying to stay hidden. An SK's job is to stay hidden, a vig wouldn't want to be outed easily because they'd be nightkilled. Now we've been discussing the possibility of a massclaim, it's possible that if we have a vig they'll be claiming. I don't think that the lack of anyone having come forward yet points to the mafia having that information. I think the rarity of mafia having extra kills, particular in a normal setup, is more significant.

I'm starting to think a compromise to massclaiming might be to ask the second killing role to come forward. That would at least avoid the issues of outing any protective roles.

[Patrick]

Feh. Alright then, having thought it through, I'm going to claim now. It should certainly add some clarity to the situation. I'm the vigilante. (Full vig, not one shot).

On night 1, I shot Guardian. My original plan had been to kill ChaosOmega if opie was lynched as town (possibly if opie was scum, but I hadn't thought so much about that). ChaosOmega's cop claim increased my suspicion of him still further, but for obvious reasons he was off my kill list for that night. I thought there was a good chance Guardian was connected to ChaosOmega, based on the post where ChaosOmega seemed to be coaching him, but also based on the way Guardian seemed to BS his way onto a late ChaosOmega vote, as the latter started looking like he'd be lynched. A minor reason for killing Guardian was also that it yielded more information than most kills, since he'd picked up alot of hate on day 1. (For the record, my main other two possibles had been Xyl and Oman, with a little pickemgenius).

The interesting part is that last night, I tried to kill Xylthixlm. And he's still with us. I think the two most likely possibilities are:

1) He's unightkillable (nearly always a scum trait)
2) I was roleblocked, probably by a mafia roleblocker (plausible)

There are a few other smaller possibilities, such as doc protection, but unless we have an SK (more below on that), I don't see a doc existing on top of 3 decent poweroles. And I don't see any doc choosing to protect Xylthixlm anyway. Another thing that could have stopped the nightkill is if Xylthixlm is a hider type role, but again I find that very unlikely for balance reasons (3 investigative roles in a mini). Overall, unless I'm missing something obvious, my failed kill makes it significantly more likely that Xyl is scum, which is why I've been pushing him more aggressively today. I think both him and Oman are very scummy, but with this is mind I think Xyl needs to die today. I suspect he's probably a GF type role.

Originally I was thinking of maybe trying to get him lynched today without claiming, but with the amount of speculation going round, I think the benefits of this should outweigh the downside. If the scum are any good, they've probably worked out it's me anyway, or at least narrowed it down alot.

Maybe it's a little bit clearer now why I don't think an SK is likely. (I do think the flavour argument is valid, but obviously that wasn't my only reason). If there is an SK, that means we have 3 killing groups in a mini, which is something I've seen, but I think some mods would hesistate to include in their game, particularly a first time mod. It would also mean that

both

nights are missing a kill. The fact that Adel's kill wasn't a stabbing threw me a bit, but my current theory is that the mafia can have different kill flavours, depending on which member performs the kill. I'd also guess the mafia killed Adel thinking that she was the vig, since she was someone who'd expressed alot of suspicion of Guardian1 on day 1. At any rate, I can't particularly think of any other reason why they would.

I have considered the possibility that Xylthixlm is an SK with unightkillability, but some of his comments have made that less likely in my eyes, since he's been encouraging the idea that the second killer is an SK. That's something mafia could conceivably do but I can't so much see why an SK would be doing it. I also think a good part of his scumminess is based on connections to CO and to a lesser extent Oman anyway.

So yep. I acknowledge that this isn't proof of my alignment, and I'm still not entirely sure whether or not coming out right now was optimal, but some players have been going astray, and this should help. Xylthixlm needs to die today and I'll be very surprised if he turns up innocent.

[Patrick]

I would assume it would still go through, since that's the norm, and there's nothing in my PM suggesting it wouldn't.

If Xylthixlm is scum, do people want me to kill Oman tonight, or leave it for the day?

Unvote

, just temporarily so he doesn't self hammer or anything.

[Patrick]

Just checked with the mod btw, and he said my kill would go through even if I'm killed.

[Patrick]

I'd be shocked if the game contained a tracker, watcher, vig, doctor and nurse, which would be a huge amount of town power. Even with an SK in the game that would be a huge amount of town power. If there is no doctor then Xylthixlm's claim is unprovable and same as vanilla townie really.

If he's a nurse than he's really unlucky because I don't believe his claim at all. Does anyone else have anything to add here? If Xyl is scum then I'll kill Oman tonight, if Xyl is town then I guess I'll hold off because a misvig would lose the game.

After preview: I see Oman claimed tracker. Was that a serious claim? You got Xyl going somewhere last night?

[Patrick]

So if you are a tracker, who have you targetted each night?

[Patrick]

Oman hasn't hammered, I unvoted Xylthixlm. Still waiting for Oman's "results", on the miniscule chance he's somehow teling the truth.

[Patrick]

You like agreeing with me so much that you attributed Incognito's quote to me as well. I'm touched. ^_^

C'mon Oman. Come out and give us some results before we hammer your scumbuddy. If you're town, you should have given them to us already.

[Patrick]

lol. I think it's pretty safe to say I'll be shooting Oman tonight.

[Patrick]

This isn't making much sense to me. Ugh.

[Patrick]

My brain is still struggling to process Oman being town.

We have 2 chances to get scum unless that person is mafia roleblocker. I'll have to reread carefully and calmly, which isn't likely to happen at this hour. I'm also puzzled as to why I wasn't killed last night -- that actually makes me think mafia roleblocker is more likely.

[Patrick]

I'm guessing here that your logic is that the remaining mafia is not afraid of you because he can block you indefinitely?

If we have just a mafia goon then we have 2 chances to get scum. If we have a mafia roleblocker who can't both kill and roleblock on the same night, we again have 2 chances to get scum. If it's a mafia roleblocker who can both kill and roleblock, we have just the one chance. The third situation is the way I'm leaning right now, mainly because if it's anything else, then last night's kill seems sub-optimal.

Any particular reason why you tried to telegraph being a vanilla townie? Did you do that in Underground Mafia?

[Patrick]

No surprises there then. I too will have to read certain parts to make up a list; I did have some immediate inklings when day dawned, but there's probably no point saying them until I've read up properly.

Jitsu, you're free to elaborate. I'd also like to know what you were keeping quiet yesterday -- that additional benefit you mentioned to massclaiming.

[Patrick]

Sort of wondering whether scum thought Incognito had a protective role. Some of his posts yesterday could be taken that way. If that theory is true that would mean scum don't have a roleblocker, otherwise they could have just blocked him and killed me.

[Patrick]

We no lynch, I get nightkilled. What's improved? It just seems to throw away any possibility of having two chances to hit scum.

[Patrick]

I've reread pretty much all of day 1 so far and have some thoughts about it.

Firstly on Matt_S, I stand by many of the comments I made on replacing in. I feel like many of his early votes and suspicions look really contrived.

The multiple FoSes post was suggested as possible distancing from opie, who some people thought was a scumbuddy to him, now I'm wondering if he was distancing with Xylthixlm.

The interactions between Matt and Xylthixlm are interesting. Yesterday when I ruled out Oman and Jitsu as scumbuddies I had looked back at the fights between Matt and Xyl and wondered if I could do the same, but felt I can't rule out distancing here. Neither of them really goes at the other with fire and brimstone which I would sometimes use to disassociate two players. Nevertheless, in the midst of several suspicions on townies, Matt did vote for Xylthixlm, although I think his reasons weren't very strong. Xylthixlm promptly countervotes Matt.

Xylthixlm later made it clear he was willing to go for a Matt lynch, and if people had followed him there I think he was committed. Unfortunately I haven't got much meta on him to know how much he likes busing. I have to say I don't feel like Matt pushed especially hard to get Xylthixlm lynched though, and he later unvoted and said the lynch would be either Guardian or opie, about 5 days before deadline (too early in my view to give up).

Matt gets a few plus points for joining the ChaosOmega wagon early. The reason I've been limiting this to a few is the wording of his post: he qualifies it with a "for now", which implies he's going to move off soon, and then invites people to bring other lynch candidates to the table. The followups look interesting, especially knowing ChaosOmega's alignment. Matt_S seemed to want to make it very clear that he wasn't following Erg0 onto the CO wagon, which bothers me and I feel like he's more likely to do this if he knows CO is scum. He also looks rather self conscious in his explanations, though the latter might be more of a newbie tell.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

I've had a more or less consistent town read on Erg0. That's because I've agreed with much of what he's said and haven't really seen anything that pings my scumdar from him. He hasn't been afraid to stand against the majority when appropriate, rather than taking the easier roads that both our confirmed scum did.

I'm almost tempted to say Erg0 is town based on Post 510 alone. This seems like a really unecessary post to make if he's scum, attempting to bus his GF who is in no real trouble, whilst also pointing to his other scumbuddy. Subtle play if he's scum.

I can't see too much to comment on about Erg0 on day 1, as I agree with pretty much all he says after this. I thought he was correct in his defences to the weird attacks on him, and he voted ChaosOmega as a better practical try than Xylthixlm. I suppose it's possible he went after his scumbuddies with the hope that people wouldn't be persuaded to switch away from opie late in the day, but not feeling it at the moment.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Notable interactions between Jitsu and known scum... well I can't find many. On day 1 at least, Xylthixlm seems to almost entirely ignore Jitsu, apart from briefly saying that he doesn't buy Erg0's case against him. Jitsu questions Xyl over the small matter of the "arbitrary" definition, which I don't think I can pull much out of, and looks like it was just an attempt to get things rolling. He later claims to read Xylthixlm as town in Post 384 (note: Guardian's theory that Jitsu slipped here and revealed that he knows these players are town is disproven by Xylthixlm being scum). I think he's too generous to Xylthixlm here, but I'd be wary to call it much of a tell.

Probably a point in Jitsu's favour is that he tries to bring ChaosOmega into the spotlight a bit more around page 20, and in Post 499.

Previously I found Jitsu's dithering around the deadline to be scummy in light of ChaosOmega being scum, but looking at it again I could imagine myself acting in the same way as town in a difficult dilemna. His progression to suspicion of Xylthixlm seems logical enough.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Just looking at Xylthixlm's day 1 posts in isolation to see if I can round this off somehow. ChaosOmega unfortunately didn't mention any of the players alive. Xyl spends a hell of alot more time on Matt_S than either Jitsu or Erg0. Alot of scathing comments which in a vacuum might indicate distancing (I felt like ChaosOmega did this to Xyl whilst keeping his vote on opie, he also accused Xyl of busing opie, which meant when opie turned up town, ChaosOmega had a reason to back away from Xyl). In Post 221 he again critisises Matt_S and plays the field, possibly trying to get a feel for what other people think of the latter. Up until now this looks fairly like distancing, but in Post 240 he votes for him, and seems to be happy with his lynch, and this is where I'm unsure. Did he decide Matt_S just needed to bused here? Did he reckon nobody would take the bait? Or is he just going for what he perceives to be an easy townie lynch? I'm looking forward to seeing what others think of the whole Matt_S/Xylthixlm interaction, which is crucial.

I feel like Xylthixlm might have been buddying up to Erg0 despite the fact he doesn't say much about him; this would come from his scumdar post, and then later when he declares he's getting a strong town read on Erg0. I'd tend to expect him to leave more room to switch later when assessing a scumbuddy. He's also got some track record for buddying up: he buddied up to both Guardian1 and Oman, at least until day 3 when he dumped Oman. Xylophone hardly ever mentions Jitsu as noted already. He compliments him slightly in his scumdar post as "fairly sharp". He later defends him mildly against the attacks on him, saying that he doesn't see Jitsu's reaction as scummy. Plausible way of acting around a scumbuddy.

I'll get to day 2 when I can, but the main thing I'm concluding here is that Erg0 is likely town. Hopefully this gets the ball rolling.

[Patrick]

Jitsu, when I referred to the "additional benefit" that you were keeping quiet yesterday, I was thinking of what you'd said here:

As I said before, I have nothing to hide. As I said, there is some risk to any townie power roles left remaining, but the information we get could be very beneficial. I expect Oman and Xyl to lie, but what the remaining players say should be enlightening. I don't want to explain why, as the scum could benefit from that.

And similar followups. Were you simply referring to the identity of the second killer as the beneficial information we could gain?

[Patrick]

What if I had said "for the rest of the day" instead? I still intended to get things done.

If you'd said that, it would have communicated something different. It would have implied your vote wasn't going to shift on day 1 from ChaosOmega.

[Patrick]

I wouldn't say I found it terribly suspicious, I just said that the addition kind of weakened your vote on ChaosOmega, because it implied you'd only be there in passing. Saying, "My vote will remain on him for the rest of the day" would probably have struck me as a little odd, since I didn't remember you expressing suspicion of him up until then and you seemed to be just choosing between opie and Guardian.

[Patrick]

I don't think day 2 should be dismissed out of hand. We know that at least one scum was optimistic enough in Guardian's chances that they tried to keep him alive, and analysing that is what swung it for me in vigging Xyl instead of Oman.

Matt_S, on reading day 2, I find myself disliking your reaction to Guardian's SK claim, because you unvoted him and hardly seemed to think about the scenarios where he could have been lying mafia. In fact you hardly analysed the situation at all. How likely did you think it was that Guardian was mafia? If you found it unlikely, what made you believe his claim?

Jitsu, you were more analytical than Matt_S, but I still can't get a good feel for how likely you thought it was that Guardian was mafia as opposed to SK, because it seems like all of your analysis assumed 5-1-3 (unless I'm missing some part).

[Patrick]

I'm leaning towards Matt_S as scum, especially after the recent posts by Erg0 and Jitsu, but what I'd really like right now is for Matt to say who he suspects and why.

Also, Matt, you've now said twice today that you unvoted Xylthixlm because people seemed to be saying they had a meta on him that meant his behaviour was normal. Maybe I'm just missing it, but I don't remember anyone saying anything like that, and I think Xyl has only completed one game on the forum. Can you give some specific posts of people saying they had a meta on him?

[Patrick]

I may have been drawing too many conclusions, but quite a few people said that Xylthixlm looked protown day 1. I figured that since they didn't have a problem with him, then Xylthixlm always acted the way he did. I looked through lots of people's posts, but pretty much the only posts I saw attacking Xylthixlm were for him following Adel, other than TrustGossip. Among the people who seemed to ignore his style, were Jitsu,who said he thought Xylthixlm was protown; Incognito, who in general asked for quite a bit of meta, but never from Xylthixlm, and who never said he found Xylthixlm scummy day 1(ignoring arbitrary arguments); Adel, who only seemed to feud with Xylthixlm about statistics; and pickemgenius, who didn't really interact with Xylthixlm much. I found it hard that so many people wouldn't have a problem with how Xylthixlm played unless they knew he just played that way. It's not specifics, but I'll look for some posts if you want them.

I think I will need a few specifics here, because I'm not sure I buy this explanation. Firstly, I don't remember anyone saying they thought Xylthixlm was protown except for Jitsu. Despite the amount of content he's added to this game, I don't think Jitsu can be classed as "quite a few people". And really, it just seems odd that you'd drop this attack on Xylthixlm, based on this meta you imagined people had on him, without even asking anyone about it. That would have seemed like the obvious thing to do.

[Patrick]

What do you conclude from these interactions?

[Patrick]

Sorry guys, this game slipped onto a back burner again.

Matt, I've got some questions about your analysis.

Erg0, as I said, voted for Xylthixlm Day 1, after saying ChaosOmega was also scummy. He said he usually was against using lurking as a scumtell, but that he had a scum meta on ChaosOmega. He also made a case on Oman, who seemed to be just as good a vote candidate. It's a weak interaction that I may be looking too much into, but it stands out to me.

You say this interaction stands out, but I can't tell whether you're saying it stands out as good or bad for Erg0. Which way does it make you lean?

Erg0 pushed hard against CO/G^2. Seems more of a town action than bussing. However, Erg0's interaction with Xylthixlm seems a little odd since Xyl was one of his suspects.

Which interaction with Xylthixlm was odd here? Why was it odd? I haven't managed to find one that looks odd.

One thing that I didn't notice before is that Erg0 never voted for Xylthixlm. I'm curious why he was reluctant to hammer. He already stated his stance on nking Oman, and hadn't seen Oman's "hammer" vote.

I'm not reading anything into this, because at that point Xylthixlm was a dead man walking.

I do have another thought about this but I'm purposefully holding that one back until I get responses from Matt_S on this.

Mod

: Is Erg0 in prod range? If so, can you prod him?

[Patrick]

Matt is still my preferred lynch today, and I don't like the vague nature of his attacks on Erg0 in particular. I feel like he's reaching to try to discredit both Jitsu and Erg0, which may indicate he's a mafia goon. Of course, a townie may try and ensure both the other suspects are killed too, to ensure a town win, so it's mostly just a gut feeling. If Matt is lynched as town today, I'd be vigging Jitsu if not roleblocked.

[Patrick]

I've kind of broken a part of my glasses, making them nearly impossible to wear, so I can't do anything serious here until Thursday night or Friday when I get my spares. Apologies for being useless.

Jitsu, I was looking more for Matt's comment on my choice of vig than yours, though you did react more or less how I expected. I think if you're scum you're more likely a roleblocker than goon, because you haven't tried to discredit Erg0 in anyway.

[Patrick]

Matt, I'm considering hammering you, glasses or not. If you've got anything to say, now would be the time.

[Patrick]

@Patrick: Are you still going to vig Jitsu?

If you're innocent then that would be the plan, yes.

[Patrick]

Meh. I was going to wait a little but I think I'm mostly just delaying the inevitable if I do. I don't think I'll change my mind.

Vote: Matt_S

. If Erg0 is scum then we never really had a chance today, if Jitsu is a mafia roleblocker then he's done enough to win the game.

[Patrick]

Not an SK guys.

[Patrick]

I'm very happy with this game. Very happy with my scumhunting, just a shame I had to kill a protown powerole on night 1. Sorry about that Guardian. It just seemed like a good practical kill. It was my first time as a vig.

Regarding the setup, I think it was reasonably balanced, whilst at the same time not being too boring, but if I had to lean one way I'd say it favoured the town. A mafia roleblocker might have been a good addition here. Thanks to vollkan for modding and letting me into this game -- the standard of play was really good and it was a full blooded fight. Really well played by lots of people here.

I'd be interested to know the rationale behind the scum nightkills, and whether our little theory about Matt's day 3 vote on Xylthixlm being planned was correct.

I was so nervous in hammering Matt less than an hour ago. I was really struggling to see either Erg0 or Jitsu's play coming from scum, but typical paranoia always sets in x_x

Great game guys.

[Patrick]

Mod

: The first post has Matt_S as replacing ChaosOmega. I'm pretty sure that's not right.

Was the kill flavour just jumbled at random, or was there a specific flavour for each mafia member?

[Patrick]

2) I basically came up with my nightkill MOs on a whim. As in, there was nothing systematic about them; it was just me trying to have fun with the deaths. Was that appropriate?

It's probably ok. It added a bit of confusion, but was possible to get round. If you don't like people being able to work out what the killing groups are from flavour then it's fine.

3) Vote-counts. Did my system of having the top-of-page counts and the first page collection work well?

I was fine with it, but I don't usually look through lots of consecutive votecounts anyway.

4) Anything else?

Minor quibble: On night 2, you opened the day early even though my Xyl kill was only provisional. I probably wasn't going to change it, but it still would have been better to wait.

Thank goodness... Um, you can put down that gun now, Patrick Patrick?

I think I'll hold onto it

[Patrick]

Now I think of it, I'd probably recommend posting the generic vanilla townie PM on the front post in a mini normal. In past games where the PM hasn't been posted, I've seen vanilla townies manage to pseudo confirm each other by hinting at words which are in the vanilla townie PM. It can get messy.

[Patrick]

When Patrick hammered, I had a post typed out saying to NK Patrick, but vollkan locked the thread amazingly fast.

I'm very confused about the rationale behind not killing Patrick; he obviously was the vig from his hammer.

Yeah, I really did make my last post of day 2 expecting not to be alive day 3. Originally when you claimed SK, I decided you were looking for a hyper-reaction from the vig, so I tried to be one of those players that just quietly pushed your lynch, hoping not to stand out. It was frustrating to see a ton of people starting to defend you, although two of them did at least turn out to be scum. It meant I had to stick out as one of the bigger pushers. I would have argued the exact same position as a vanilla townie though.

[Patrick]

Thanks for your kind comments Jitsu. I wasn't really that suspicious of your play when choosing on day 4, it was more just that there was no interaction with Xylthixlm that meant I could rule it out, and Xylthixlm pretty much shrugged you off all game, in a way you sometimes see scum ignoring their partners. I eventually concluded Matt's interaction with Xylthixlm was even more scumlike, and it reminded me strongly of how I treated a less experienced scumbuddy last time I was scum. It was also difficult to see you as scum given your attention to detail and consistently high level of analysis -- usually when a scum puts out that much content, I'd expect to see some amount of craplogic or manipulation or spin or something, but I wasn't really seeing it in your case (in contrast to the posts of dead scum). On day 4, I was looking out for which of the three of you would try to just tack on extra suspicion to the other two as much as possible, because I suspected a mafia goon would have to play that way, and Matt_S was the one that stuck out to me as doing that.

Other random facts: When Jitsu suggested some additional benefit to massclaiming but wasn't willing to say what it was, I half wondered if he was alluding to something in the vanilla townie PM that could help clear a townie or two (without realising it would be unethical of course).

On night 3 I expected the game to end with some duel between me and Oman. I really thought his two obviously fakeclaims were just a humorous way of him giving up and saying that the town had won. I was stunned when I saw the day 4 scene, and for a few minutes I seriously wondered if vollkan was just playing an April Fool's joke on us. Oman just seemed to fit into the mafia group so perfectly; in retrospect, I suppose Xyl was trying to connect himself to Oman. It so, it worked.

[Patrick]

I'm curious which of us you think was the more experienced one.

I meant you as the experienced one, due to all the chat games you've played. I think maybe you suffered from some Stoofer's syndrome on day 1, which means as scum your buddy looks scummier to you than they actually are, and you feel almost compelled to distance/bus them. Then later, you started ignoring him, even when he had posted some things on day 2 which looked attackable, and which I thought you'd have attacked if he'd been town. I acted in the same way towards a buddy last time I was scum.

I'm interesting in modding sometime. I've been a D&D DM for a long time, and I like moderating just as much as playing.

It's fun. If you need someone to look over the setup, feel free to come to me.

[Patrick]

Then I'd only have to worry about Patrick's mind, which probably still would have killed me. I chose Incognito instead of Erg0 because I wanted someone(hopefully Jitsu) to wonder why Erg0 was still alive, so that I could attack them for being stupid. It didn't work.

Why not nightkill me instead? Remove the town's second shot at finding scum.

That's what I tried to do for most of the game, plant WIFOM and wait for someone to jump on it. That's the reason I wanted to kill Adel (Xylthixlm thought she was the vig[I thought Incognito or Patrick was the vig, or Oman or Jitsu the serial killer]).

It's probably better to make the more straight forward kills, as many people will be wary of reading too much into the nightkills anyway. And in this case, killing Adel didn't really frame or implicate anyone, because she was so unpredictable and had expressed suspicion of pretty much every player in the game at some point.

Now, I have a question for the town. If Guardian^2 really was the serial killer, and you knew he wasn't actually mafia, would you view lynching him as the best move? I thought that letting him live would be the best move from the town's perspective, so I went with it.

It becomes much harder to decide then, but I'd probably still lynch the SK. I can't really think of a situation that could have arisen where we'd be sure that someone claiming SK was an SK though. There would always be that chance they were mafia.