Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!
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Patrick Rantbuddy
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I've read the game, and will give my thoughts on every player. These people are listed in no particular order.
Matt_S: I can't remember a single post by him that I've liked. I think he's trying to appear a bit more active than he really is, and when he's voting/Fosing people I don't agree with most of it. Don't like his early Guardian vote after a couple of others had expressed suspicion in that direction; I don't think Guardian's asking people to comment on Erg0 is any more likely to come from scum than town, although I'm slightly more lenient on Matt for this because he's a newbie, and newbies often seem to find slightly unusual stuff scummy. Post 190 is a post that several people have critisised and which I didn't like either; I won't bother repeating what others have said on this. I don't like his attacks and eventual vote for Xylthixlm because his reasons seem contrived. Why exactly do Xyl's comments about Adel's algorithm seem scummy to you as opposed to maybe a little annoying or unecessary? This seems like thin reasoning for a vote. I'd also like you to explain why Incognito being aggressive is suspicious to you. All in all, Matt seems like a decent scum candidate.
Xylthixlm: He can be next since he's been arguing with Matt who I've just commented on. His early use of the word arbitary for daykills lead to a debate that was pointless IMO, but eh, didn't seem scummy. His stance on Guardian early was pretty much same as mine, and most of his other stances in his every player post were reasonable. I quite like his push on Matt, even his push on my predecessor who seemed to be making some weird posts. I can actually see the point Erg0 made in his player by player post about Xyl seeming to move off the opie wagon rather easily, and it could be a be a connection between the two, but Xyl doesn't bother me much at this stage compared to several other people. Around neutral.
ChaosOmega: Has hardly done anything, not unlike the only time I've played with him (where he was town), but I still don't particularly like it. As far as I can tell, he's saying he hasn't explained his non opie suspicions yet because he wants to observe those two some more, which could be legitimate, but we're half way through our day and there's plenty to work with, so I'd like more from him relatively soon. I don't want him coasting to day 2 using that as an excuse.
Incognito: I'm reasonably happy with his play so far. Attacked people for smallish reasons early on but felt like a townie eager for discussion rather than a scumbag. Liked his comments on Jitsu which I'll go into more in my section about Jitsu. I'm hot and cold on his case against Guardian, which I'll again defer to the the appropriate section, but regarding Incognito's alignment, I think he's probably protown. He seems to be looking for scum and not afraid of conflict.
Jitsu: The first post I noted was Post 68 where he started going after Oman. I have to admit at first I thought I'd found a blatant contradiction: He critisised Oman for asking Erg0 whether he has vig abilities, whilst in the same post asking Oman the same thing. But since Oman had already aimed a (fake) daykill at Jitsu, I suppose it wasn't such a bad question afterall. Nevertheless I don't like his attack on Oman; his back and forth with Erg0 looked like pretty obvious banter to me, and I don't see why a "more serious dayvig claim" from Oman is more likely to be come from scum than town. What benefit does a scum get from posting in thread, "Daykill: X"? Maybe it's nottoobad for an early game kind of thing, but I find it troubling that on page 14 his vote is still on Oman based on the accusation that Oman was seriously fishing from Erg0.
I didn't like Post 129 by Jitsu for similar reasons to those given by Incognito and Erg0. Feels like he backed down when Opie was starting to pick up flak for pushing the Guardian case. I've read through his explanations several times and got a little lost in it I have to admit, but on first impression it hasn't eased my suspicion of him. I'd be more inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt if the rest of his play struck me as protown, but it hasn't really, so he's one of the scummiest players here.
Guardian: Tricky tricky. Alright, so to start with I don't feel like the original case against him was much good. His asking for comments on the Erg0 wagon was unusual but didn't stick out to me as deserving votes, yet he picked up quite a bit of suspicion for it. Looking at Incognito's later case against him: I don't think Guardian's Post 74 was all that bad myself, he seemed to at least ask some valid questions of his attackers. I think that point (3) by Incognito is somewhat valid, though odd as it might sound I have noticed Guardian doing this in previous games (kind of supporting a suspicion of someone whilst asking for someone else to make the case -- but if I'm intepretting the accusation wrongly then feel free to point it out). I'm not keen on some of Guardian's responses though, particularly Post 225, I don't see how Incognito was contradicting himself here and his next few posts have an OMGUSy edge that I don't care for. The later stuff has made me more suspicious of him but I think there are better suspects out there still.
Erg0: So far Erg0 has seemed pretty reasonable to me. In fact, so many of his opinions are similar to mine that it's spooky. I could see him being tricky enough as scum to fool me, but nothing he's done has pinged my scumdar, so I'm leaning town.
Adel: One of the few players here that I have any meta on, and that is that she always looks like scum to me. Looking past that, I'm happy enough with her early play and case against opie, though I don't think the certainty is warranted, and think she's being too lenient on Jitsu, which is a possible connection. (I feel like Jitsu has just as much jumped on a convenient target as opie has). Other than that, the main thing I'm interested in is why she can't see Matt being scum without opie being scum, because I disagree with it. Last time I played with Adel she was scum and seemed different to this, and made much less sense to me in that game, so Adel isn't worrying me too much at this stage.
Opie:He started the case against Guardian, and I've already established that I wasn't impressed by it. I also don't think his extending it to the other Erg0 wagoners was justified (already said I know blah blah). Since then, his posts haven't seemed so bad to me though. If anything, the biggest thing turning me off this case is the fact that I feel Jitsu is more worthy of attention than he is, and yet has been mentioned relatively less, which may indicate the latter is scum benefitting from some double standard of sorts. Meanwhile Opie has been wagoned up to 4 votes, including a pretty crappy fourth one by ChaosOmega.
Oman: Early play with the joke case/dayvig seemed fair enough to me to try and get reactions. Oman hasn't stuck out much to me so far, except like some others he seems to be too lenient on Jitsu. Nevertheless, Oman's not a top suspect for me.
pickemgenius: Seems to be usual brief self in this game. Nothing he's done hit me as particularly town, but most of his stances have seemed ok as well, so pretty much neutral on him. I disagree with his comment that tone can't be read when playing internet mafia, but I suppose that's just a theory thing.
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So bah, this got kind of long. After looking at every player, I think I'm happy with aVote: Jitsu.
Matt: What do you think of Jitsu?
Still 3 votes shy. I don't feel like he's the best lynch today personally.Adel wrote:Patrick: what did I do wrong? Why haven't I been able to get opie lynched yet?Primpod 11:13 pm
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Matt is probably my second suspect, but I think the Jitsu case is stronger, and signficantly, seems to have been largely ignored. I feel like I haven't agreed with many of their suspects or votes/FoSes, but Jitsu also has the backtracking point going against him. I'm open to persuasion though.Xylthixlm wrote:Patrick, why do you prefer a Jitsu lynch to a Matt_S lynch? Your case on Matt_S seems stronger.
I didn't particularly catch anything on my read that says they can't be scum together.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I caught a bit of a similar vibe off one of his posts in Big Love Mafia (which I wasn't in, but I like to dip into alot of games). It's This Post which he made shortly after Ether replaced in. Particularly the bit where he said, "Could you provide more detailed reasons? At a glance, your suspicions make a lot of sense, though." It seemed like he was kind of supporting it whilst encouraging her to lay out the case. Guardian was town.Incognito wrote:This is correct. He seemed to be casting some suspicion towards opie but he was unwilling to place a vote on him. The vote only came after the case was fostered by Adel and a few people expressed at least minimal support for the case. If you could point me in the direction of this meta that supports that he does this as town, that would be nice.
Also, in Pick your Poison Mafia, which I was also in as town, Guardian was accused of something similar in the sequence starting with This Post. Kind of waiting to see how other people would react to the case before pushing it further. (Guardian is town, Setael is scum). Also, now I'm thinking about it, in This Post Guardian pretty much completely strawmanned someone's case against him, when that player presented alot of theoretical possibilities and he broke them down and addressed them as if they were all true simultaneously.
These aren't exactly the same as what's happened in this game, but seeing him do those things as town makes me think that there's at least a reasonable chance that he's genuine in saying that he doesn't believe what you've called him out on is scummy. It doesn't make it all go away but does mean that I'm more suspicious of several other people.
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Votecount #14
opie - 4 (Adel, Oman, Guardian, ChaosOmega)
Guardian - 2 (opie, Incognito)
Jitsu - 2 (Erg0, Patrick)
Oman - 1 (Jitsu)
Xyltixlm - 1 (Matt_S)
TrustGossip - 1 (pickemgenius)
Matt_S - 1 (Xylthixlm)
Not voting - 0 (nobody)
With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
=======================================Primpod 11:13 pm
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Not necessarily. It depends what habit you're looking at.Adel wrote:A word of advice for those preparing metas on other players, comparing day 1 bahavior to behavior on later days is a clear apples to oranges comparison.Primpod 11:13 pm
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You called Opie's early case on Guardian bullshit, and voted him for it. When opie made the case, Jitsu expressed agreement with it, and threw a FoS on Guardian, whilst voting someone who you apparently believe is protown. I tend to think going along with a bad case is worse if anything than putting it forward to start with, so I don't see why you aren't also at least a bit suspicious of Jitsu for supporting a case that you think is crap. Please explain what is so great about Jitsu in this game that makes you think he's town.Adel wrote:@oman do you still feel that Jitsu is pro-town? He was so good as town in our last game together, and I buy him as town so far in this game, that I want to defend him. Care to join me?Primpod 11:13 pm
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Yep, I've heard about all this. Am fairly happy to see ryan gone.Adel wrote:did you hear that ryan just got banned recently for posting a role PM in a game? ABR got me lynched day 1 or day 2 in my next four games after that, he was town aligned in all four and I was only scum in the last one. I was the doctor two of those times. He just posted in MD that he is only going to mod for now on.
I didn't read it particularly carefully because alot of the discussion turned my brain to mush. I remember thinking you were incredibly scummy early on and wondering how on earth you kept not being lynched as scum. I thought you improved a bit later on.Adel wrote:What was notable about my play in Friends and Enemies?
What was the point of those two questions?
You haven't been saying, "Jitsu may be scum" or I'm a little suspicious of him following Opie's case". You've gone out of your way to say you think he's protown and want to defend him. I'm giving you the chance to do that by telling me why you think he's protown.Adel wrote:He may be scum.
opie is scum.
I prefer to pick the low-hanging fruit.
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Votecount #15
opie - 3 (Adel, Oman, ChaosOmega)
Jitsu - 3 (Erg0, Patrick, Guardian)
Guardian - 2 (opie, Incognito)
Oman - 1 (Jitsu)
Xyltixlm - 1 (Matt_S)
TrustGossip - 1 (pickemgenius)
Matt_S - 1 (Xylthixlm)
Not voting - 0 (nobody)
With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
=======================================Primpod 11:13 pm
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From this last page, I've liked some of Jitsu's responses. His comments on Guardian seem like honest attempts to discern his alignment and he's gone into it in some depth. I too have noticed how often he keeps asserting that he's innocent, but I can't decide if it's scummy or just something he likes doing. I know a few people who have a habit of doing it regardless of alignment. The possible slip caught by Guardian is interesting, but in my experience those kind of slips aren't that reliable as tells, even if there's no good answer for them. I know Glork seems to make that kind of slip all the time as town.
Anyway, I look forward to hearing from Jitsu about his suspicions.
Still don't like most of Adel's defences of Jitsu, which seem out of proportion. Although, if Jitsu is scum I wouldn't be looking at Adel first.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Ok, I've caught up on these past few pages and am sceptical of Guardian's claimed thought process. I'm struggling to see how Adel could have had protown role based information telling her that Guardian is town, since we haven't had a night. I see now that Guardian stated "one way masons" but that seems like an incredibly rare role, and if she did have that kind of information I don't see why she would just state it outright at that point. Maybe in the random voting stage as a breadcrumb, where it would be seen as a joke, but in the middle of the day? Seems unlikely. Guardian, is it suspicious that Adel outright stated you were town? I got the sense that it was deliberated and not a slip.
I don't like Post 420 by ChaosOmega, the one quoted by Jitsu. If Guardian is scum, this will be worth another look.
I don't see the attraction of the Incognito/Guardian pairing. Why would Incognito be trying to bus Guardian all game with so many alternatives available? I'm in two minds about a possible Guardian/Jitsu, caused mainly by the post where Guardian voted Jitsu.
Unvoteas I feel somewhat better about Jitsu these past few pages. For the record, I've also been unimpressed by Oman's contribution since I joined the game.Primpod 11:13 pm
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This is basically a check in post, must force myself to do some reread tomorrow when it's not 1 am and decide which I'd prefer here because I'm hazy on it. For now though, Incognito, do you agree with the case that Jitsu made against Guardian?Primpod 11:13 pm
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I think I'd take a Guardian lynch over an opie lynch, though neither one is as good as the hype IMHO. I'm still iffy on Guardians reaction to Adel's provocation; if he knows that Adel does weird shit to incite reactions, I don't see how what she did was scummy, if it wasn't scummy, I don't see why he called her on it if he thought she might have had powerole information clearing him (which I still think is a weird thing to cross someone's mind anyway). I'm also not keen on the makeup of the opie wagon, which seems to have quite a few poor or casual votes on it, which I think is more likely to happen on a day 1 townie wagon. ChaosOmega's in one I mentioned already, but I don't much care for Oman's contribution to it either which was just an agreement with most of Adel's case and has sat there ever since.
After preview, Matt's last seems bizarre. Why would you rather have a second claim on day 1?Primpod 11:13 pm
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Vote: ChaosOmega, I reread him too and he looks worse this time round. All he's done is support the biggest bandwagon with ridiculously vague reasons, seemingly just because it's the easiest route for him. He hasn't elaborated on any of his own suspicions, using this as his excuse:
Which is stupid. It's the job of a protown player to follow up on all their suspicions. There's no reason why he couldn't have made a case good enough to convince a majority, and even if he hadn't succeeded, the reactions/discussion coming from it would have been undoubtedly helpful, especially if the guy he made the case against was scum. I thought he was going to step up later in the day when I replaced in, but that's obviously not the case, and he's also posted in Little Italy since being prodded but seems to have carefully avoided this game. I reread his posts in the game I played with him where he was town, and although he lurked, he was less vague/opportunistic than this.ChaosOmega wrote:Also, you only have 1 vote. Even if I provided a fantastic case, I doubt I could pull enough votes to you to cause a lynch. The plurality is focused on opie, and I think it's a good place to look at the moment, as I haven't liked the tone of his posts. I'll follow up with my suspicions of you once more things clear up.
I don't much care for the propoganda I'm seeing for lynching opie, and I think the attacks on Erg0 are silly. Also I don't get why like 3 people have attacked him and not even mentioned me; it seems like I'm doing something similar to him. Scratch that thing about town vibes from Adel.
Xyl still needs to answer Guardian's question about whether or not he wants to rush pickem, the guy who he's labelled obvscum.
After reading the preview and seeing the votecount, I see Guardian unvoted opie. How come?Primpod 11:13 pm
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I disagree that Erg0 was pseudo claiming anything, and think Guardian has made an entirely too big deal out of it. Even if he had pseudo claimed vanilla, I'm not sure why that would be scummy as opposed to just bad play.
You're saying if Erg0 is scum, he was setting himself up to claim vanilla, and was going to point to that as a breadcrumb?Oman wrote:In fact, if you are scum, I'd say you're setting up for a claim.
Also, I'm having trouble working out exactly what you think of Erg0, it seems to alternate between thinking he's scum who needs running up tomorrow and thinking he's town.
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Votecount #24
opie - 5 (Oman, ChaosOmega, pickemgenius, Xylthixlm, Guardian)
Guardian - 4 (opie, Incognito, Jitsu, Adel)
Xylthixlm - 1 (Erg0)
ChaosOmega - 1 (Patrick)
Not voting - 1 ( Matt_S)
With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
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This seems counter intuitive to me, but eh, whatever. Anyway, the guy deserves votes. He's pretty blatantly avoiding the game close to deadline.Adel wrote:the CO wagon totally fits my expectation for what a late wagon, driven by scum, as an alternative to their scumbuddy's wagon. Fos: Patrick and Erg0Primpod 11:13 pm
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Nothing beyond the obvious. He mentioned you as one of the 3 players he found suspicious, and he's "explained" his suspicions of opie and Xyl, so I wondered what he thought of you. I'll reiterate that I don't see the attraction of the Incognito/Guardian pairing.Incognito wrote:Patrick, what was the point of this question anyway?
Regarding the last few posts, I don't see how that's WIFOM. It's just making judgements about how we think scum behave, which is the game of mafia.
It looks like opie is going to be our lynch today. It's a good information giving lynch, but I think he'll more likely than not show up town. If he does, I'll almost guarantee at least one of the lower profile people on his wagon is scum. Erg0's list isn't a bad place to start, pickemgenius could easily be scum too. If opie is scum, I'll have to revise my view of the game slightly, although again, I'd be suprised if there wasn't at least one buser on there. I've read Xyl again, and I think his opie vote looks somewhat lazy considering that there were 5-6 days left until deadline (we got 4 votes on ChaosOmega in far less than that afterall). He had the time to try and get pickem (his suspected obvscum) lynched and go back to opie if that wasn't working, but chose not too.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I make it just over 2 hours we have left.
I kind of share the concern about lynching without a claim, it's not something I ever like doing. If would be helpful if ChaosOmega showed up. I think I prefer to lynch CO without a claim than lynch opie with the vanilla claim though.
Jitsu, you've been hovering round alot today. What do you make of all this?Primpod 11:13 pm
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Shit. A cop claim 9 minutes before deadline? Did you really only just show up now, or are you scum trying a last minute confusion tactic? No counterclaim from me. Anyone else? Quickly?
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Votecount #28
ChaosOmega - 6 (Patrick, Erg0, Matt_S, Incognito, Xylthixlm, Guardian)
opie - 4 (Oman, ChaosOmega, pickemgenius, Adel)
Guardian - 2 (opie, Jitsu)
Not voting - 0 (nobody)
With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
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5 minutes remain
Primpod 11:13 pm
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Bleh.
I agree that it seems very unlikely we'd have 3 investigative roles, so ChaosOmega is likely the play today. The manner in which he claimed was pretty scummy too. We might as well see what "result" he has to give us though, on the offchance he's for real.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Ok. So if ChaosOmega is a cop, he's either insane or paranoid. Assuming there's no other cop claim, does anyone know whether vollkan is a bastard mod type of guy? Having a single non sane cop in any game is very very rare, I'm not sure I've even seen a case of it happening. ChaosOmega choosing to claim so close to deadline looks terrible for him; he knew when the deadline was, and it looks entirely too convenient that he claimed when he did, at a time when scum would obviously want to do it as a last minute confusion tactic. If he's legit, that's awful play, as is the rest of his play in general. Investigating Guardian is plausible for him to have done as cop, but that's about the only thing going for him.
I don't really think Guardian was killed as a way to setup Erg0, and don't find that avenue particularly interesting. I do think Erg0 is probably town if ChaosOmega is mafia; I think he's been acting generally town all game and the vote on ChaosOmega doesn't hurt. Same for Incognito, who sounded particularly genuine to me yesterday. I'm not sure how much to analyse the scummier people for possible buddies of ChaosOmega, which would be a total waste of time if ChaosOmega is actually a cop, or even an SK as has been suggested. I have to say when I read the opening flavour of the game I felt like it emphasised a town v mafia kind of game and there would be no SK, but after last night it definitely seems possible.
I too would like Adel to explain what she chose not to explain yesterday, and why she chose not to.
I guess this is possible. I won't be giving any credit for being on his lynch if he turns out to be mafia though. The real information is from yesterday, especially with two innocent wagons going on.Jitsu wrote:If CO is mafia, then they have cut loose their damaged goods and distanced themselves from a fakeclaim, while looking town in the process.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I somewhat agree with the comments from Incognito about Oman. Even without rereading his posts, I got the sense he didn't do that much yesterday, and coasted on the opie vote. He did go after Erg0, but I haven't seen many arguments against Erg0 that I agree with, and I still am not entirely sure what Oman even thinks of Erg0, as it seems to have flip flopped alot.
Matt, I'd say generally a knife kill is SKish type of flavour, though I'm not ruling anything out at this point.
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Votecount #30
ChaosOmega - 2 (Erg0, Adel)
Not voting - 7 (Matt_S, ChaosOmega, Xylthixlm, Patrick, Jitsu, Incognito, Oman)
With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
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I thought she was backing down on the "he's communicating something to scumbuddies" point. I didn't see that as applying to the whole case. In fact I doubt she was doing what you said she is there, because she's claiming the people on the lynch had to be unaware that it was random.Incognito wrote:Why does this come as a surprise to everyone? She pretty much admitted that the case against opie was pure bullshit here:
Adel, what do you think of Oman?Primpod 11:13 pm
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Adel is the person I'm having the hardest time deciding about right now. Most of her stances yesterday seemed totally off, and she did try and turn off the ChaosOmega wagon by intimidating those on it, which is bad if he's scum. I could see her gambitting as either alignment, as town exactly as she claims, as scum making all this up to try and wash her hands of her play yesterday. I don't think it was a great play if she's town, but it doesn't strike me as crazy as it was when I first read it.
Oman's play is reminding me of last time we played together, where he was scum. At this point, I wouldn't be suprised at all if ChaosOmega and Oman are scum together. Heck, I could still see the whole of Erg0's list from near the end of yesterday being correct. I'd say if ChaosOmega is mafia then Matt's favourability goes up a bit for voting him when there were two town wagons available, and he'd already set the groundwork for a vote on opie.
Xyl's behaviour near the end of yesterday still bothers me. He kept citing saving Guardian as his reason for voting opie, and I'm not keen on Post 652 if ChaosOmega is scum. I don't think lack of interactions is a strong reason not to vote someone on day 1, and his other reason was that he didn't think the CO wagon would overtake the Guardian wagon, which makes little sense since a vote from him on CO would have caused exactly that to happen. Further, Incognito switched his vote from Guardian to CO one post later, and Xyl posted several times with some critisism of CO, but still didn't vote him. In his favour, he did vote ChaosOmega later on, at a time where it could clearly have made a difference. I still think he's a decent candidate.
I need to reread Jitsu soon, because I'm conflicted on him.
Oman, what are your opinions on people who are not ChaosOmega?Primpod 11:13 pm
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This is also what I've been thinking.Erg0 wrote:It's pretty clear to me that if he was really a cop then he'd be making some kind of effort to avoid being lynched. If he's not caught scum I'll eat my proverbial hat.
^5Incognito wrote:I liked Patrick's post above. Patrick, are we sharing the same brain?
Xyl, what do you think of Oman?
Oman, what do you think of Xyl?
/obvious line of questioningPrimpod 11:13 pm
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I don't like this argument. It's like you're saying that Oman being on the crapwagon yesterday is ok because Guardian and pickemgenius were both on it and we know them to be protown. There were a total of 5 people on the lynchwagon yesterday, and 6 people who voted opie if we count you, of course some of those players are going to be town. Even if it was the kind of wagon that scum were attracted too, at least half the people on it were probably town. You're also ignoring the fact that ChaosOmega was on it and he's looking rather likely to be scum.Xylthixlm wrote:I haven't noticed anything particularly scummy about Oman. The only point against him seems to be that he followed Adel's wagon on opie, but so did Guardian and pickemgenius, which suggests that Adel may have done at least as good a job attracting townies as he did attracting scum.
By the way, Oman's play with regards to opie isn't the only point against him. I consider the fact that he doesn't appear to be scumhunting to be a point against him too.
I've taken a look at Jitsu. It still feels like he got off comparatively lightly compared to opie, when at least some of what opie got flak for was stuff Jitsu did too. If Adel truly did wagon him randomly then that explains her lack of attacking him, but there were still other people. Since being attacked his posting has seemed more solid to me though.
Might be connected to ChaosOmega, since he was very noncommital about whether or not he was going to vote him at the end of yesterday, and if I hadn't asked him to give an opinion on it, I'm not even sure that he was going to come forward at all. However, I think Jitsu and Oman are probably not scum together, because of the early interactions. Jitsu attacks Oman for dayvig joke, and Oman's reaction looks like he's buddying up to him a bit by overdoing the praise and giving him a townie brownie. Buddying up doesn't usually happen between two scum on the same team.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I don't mind admitting that the last page or so has really confused me.
I don't think that Oman's scumminess is dependant on CO's alignment, and I too don't understand how he might slip away if we lynch CO first, regardless of what CO is. I think some of Xlythixlm's scumminess is reliant on ChaosOmega turning up as mafia.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I'm on iffy internet access, just as a heads up.
My comments in Post 551 still stand. There's also the timing of the claim as Erg0 pointed out, which is consistent with scum just wanting to confuse us at the last minute (which might I spose indicate he's mafia and not SK), and the fact that his silence today is consistent with scum who's given up, whereas a cop would be more likely to try and defend themselves, and give us their suspicions. I realise much of this can't really be explained by you, but I find it pretty damning overall, together with the fact that the claim doesn't fit well into the setup as we know it.Guardian wrote:One thing I ask in the meanwhile: while I'm not sure there is much I can do to explain C_O's actions, as I am not C_O, are there major points of contention other than the fact I'm a cop (a cop with a guilty on Guardian^1, nonetheless)? If so, I'd appreciate that those be brought up -- even just saying "my thoughts in post X still stand".
I just want to point out that Oman is still doing next to nothing at this point, and certainly hasn't answered the many questions put to him by Incognito. Oman remains my clear second suspect, and more suspicious than Adel by a reasonable degree, in my opinion. There are a few things I have to say regarding Adel's post 923, but I'll follow Jitsu's example here and await Guardian's thoughts.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Too short of time right now unfortunately to comment on Guardian's suspicions, but I'll just make a few points about his defences:
I've played with him once as town. In that game I recall him being fairly lurkerish, but also less vague/wishy washy and less opportunistic with his suspects. I'll recheck that when I get the time, but I remember it didn't sway me when I decided to place my vote on him yesterday.Guardian wrote:I'm not sure what I can say about C_O posting infrequently and without much substance. Those are just scummy things to do, and I can't defend them. However, someone posited that that was consistent with his scum meta -- is it inconsitent with his town meta? He might just always be a scummy lurker.
Personally as a cop, I'd have claimed the minute Xyl switched his vote to put me and opie at 5 apiece, if I thought there was any chance I wouldn't be around later, though maybe that's partly playstyle. I would assuredly not leave it until 5 minutes before unless I were scum. Note ChaosOmega himself admits he should have claimed earlier.Guardian wrote:Then there is the subject of the manner in which he claimed. Really, I can't fault him for that. Checking in and claiming seems like a reasonable thing to do, as was not claiming until the last possible moment. Until a couple of hours before deadline, it seemed that he would not have to claim -- and no one, especially power roles, should claim unless they have to.
Well, we know he's been around, both from his posts on site and the fact that he picked up his prod. So he hasn't disappeared. Given that he hasn't requested replacement in other games, it's fair to say he hasn't had any kind of crisis that forced him to leave. So whilst we can't know for certain, I find it reasonably likely that his lack of motivation to do anything today is because he was scum.Guardian wrote:As for why he left the game and needed replacement -- I don't know the answer. I think the mod said the timer on his prod expired, right? His being replaced might have little to do with the in game situation, considering that. I don't think it is fair to assume that he left because he was being attacked. Even if he left because he was being attacked, I've seen players do that as town before. I don't think his exit is nearly as suspicious as his play day 1.
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Votecount #38
Guardian - 2 (Erg0, Oman)
Oman - 1 (Incognito)
Matt_S- 1 (Guardian)
Not voting - 5 (Matt_S, Xylthixlm, Patrick, Jitsu, Adel)
With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
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Primpod 11:13 pm
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It's possible given how lazy he seems to be. A cop would obviously have much more motivation to post than a scumbag though.Adel wrote:Somehow I find reasonably likely that he was a cop and was like "well, I'm fucked" and gave up.
I'm not interested in lynching Matt_S today.
Seconded, after seeing the last post.Jitsu wrote:I'd like to hear your reasoning behind this.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I think a protown powerole would be more willing to post in this situation than a scum. If ChaosOmega is town, I think he'd want to be on record with his suspicions at the very least. I could see scum clamming up if they think that they won't be able to talk their way out of trouble, and that by continuing the act they might just leave links to scumbuddies. A cop would have no such disincentive. I've seen doomed scum stop posting in the past, and I know that in his position, I'd be far more likely to post as town than as scum. I also feel, although it may be somewhat naive, that ChaosOmega as cop would realise that if we mislynch him we'd be in dire straits, and that would motivate him to try harder to defend himself. I say it may be naive, because I'm not sure if he's the kind of player that would feel any sense of duty to the town as an innocent.Guardian wrote:Patrick, wouldn't a scumbag have as much if not more incentive to defend himself from lynch than a cop? I'm not sure I understand your assumption.
It seems fairly intuitive to me *shrug*.Primpod 11:13 pm
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If he's scum, he may have decided that he had no chance of escaping, and could not further help his team by talking. So he shut up. If he's town, that could never be true, he could always help his team more by talking. I'm not saying clamming up would necessarily be the best play for scum, just that it seems more likely to come from scum than town in this situation.Guardian wrote:However, don't scum always have an incentive to defend themselves? There's usually just 3 scum in a mini normal, maybe 2 if there is an SK. Scum have a huge incentive to not just roll over and die.
I agree that it's not the only plausible explanation. It's possible that ChaosOmega has simply played a dreadful game as town, and done alot of scummy looking things, happens to have a claim that doesn't seem to fit into the setup, and simply decided he couldn't be bothered anymore. If that is the case, I'll give him a mouthful postgame, even though I doubt he'll even read it, let alone care. What I'm saying is, I think his actions and claim can be better explained by him being scum. The argument you've made here could be made as an argument against lynching anyone. Unless they're 100% confirmed scum, any lynch candidate could just be a townie who made mistakes and hasn't played in the best possible way.Guardian wrote:I guess what I'm trying to say is that I can definitely see your perspective, but want to show you that it isn't the only perspective, and in this case isn't the correct one. In theory, C_O should have not lurked day 1 or day 2, made lots of cases, not been replaced, and been an A+ townie. His lackings in that regard are regrettable, but him being lurker-scum isn't the only plausible interpretation of his play here.
Are you saying you think this disassociates them in some way? Because if you are, I disagree. I've often seen scum being too eager to vote/hammer their partners, and if ChaosOmega is mafia, I think his buddies probably saw him as a routine bus the minute we saw two dead investigative roles.Incognito wrote:I guess what's really drawn me away from my Guardian vote now is the fact that Oman jumped on Chaos_Omega's wagon so quickly at the start of Day 2. I know we've reasoned the possibility of CO being an SK but I really don't trust Oman, I feel like he's definitely scum, and his jump on that bandwagon really made me reconsider my vote, yet again.
Weak. It's coming up to 5 am hereIncognito wrote:I'll respond to Guardian tomorrow. A bit sleepy right now considering it's midnight.
I agree that we don't need to rush this, and I'll probably have more to say tomorrow after some sleep.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Looking over Guardian's suspicions, his case against Matt_S is similar to alot of the reasons I suspected Matt for when I entered the game. As I've settled into the game more I've found myself being less suspicious of him, though I'm not sure if that's because of any improvement in his play or just because I've been seeing a whole lot more scummy behaviour from several other players. I don't find him nearly as suspicious as a whole bunch of other people. I agree with Guardian's case against Oman, and it's similar to alot of stuff I've said already about him. And Adel, I don't know what to think. She's been confusing me all game, and just as I think I've almost made sense of what she's doing, she goes and does or says something that makes no sense to me again. She's 4th on my list at the moment.
I think the lynch today really should be either Guardian or Oman. I haven't found Guardian himself to be particularly scummy, but nor has he done much to change my mind about ChaosOmega. I've been set a few times to say that I'm only willing to lynch him today, but then I keep looking at Oman's posts and they're so damn scummy. I'm struggling to see why a protown player would act as Oman has. Erg0, you're an Oman expert. Have you seen him playing anything like this as town before? Could he be this bad as town? Right now he strongly reminds me of last time we met, and that's not good news.
It has to be one of those two IMO. I could see Xlythixlm as scum with either or both of them, but I think there's less evidence against him. I'll try and decide which one to go for soon, but that's where I am right now.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Wow, that's interesting. I'm glad I wasn't wrong in my ChaosOmega suspicions, one way or the other. I'm happy with a Guardian lynch now -- the risk of lynching town is gone there. If he is an SK, then I don't trust the whole, "keep me alive and I'll act as a vig" thing anyway. I'll explain why in more detail if necessary, but I imagine people can work out for themselves why that's a very slippery path to take.
I'll hold off putting him at lynch-1 just to allow everyone to weigh in on this, but I won't be supporting any other lynch today. Spirit vote.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Even if we assume for a second that he's definitely an SK, it's extremely risky to keep him alive. He has an anti town win condition, so we know that anything he's saying is to help keep himself alive. If there comes a situation where it's in his best interests to go against our wishes, he'll do it without hesitation, and that kind of situation could easily arise (where we couldn't lynch him because we'd immediately lose to the mafia).Adel wrote:I want patrick to explain why in more detail, it is necessary.
But really, I see no reason to assume he's telling the truth anyway. I was leaning towards voting him even with the cop claim, all his new claim has done is removed any possibility that he's protown, making it a more solid lynch. I don't see how claiming SK has made it anymore likely that he actually is an SK, can you explain to why you think so? I think it's likely Guardian is mafia.Primpod 11:13 pm
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This is bullshit. You haven't even addressed the argument at all, you've just accused me. You don't seem to be taking into account the large chance that Guardian is mafia. Wow, seriously, if you're town, your play disgusts me.Adel wrote:this is exactly the rationale mafia would forward. look, the town right now is at an underpowered disadvantage, and our best chance is for guardian to nk mafia members.
Why is it such a stretch? You can't think of a single argument, so you just use this rhetoric? I want you to explain clearly why you can't possibly be mafia doing this. Don't even try to dodge it, because it sticks out a mile when you try and do that.Guardian wrote:I'm honestly baffled by the suggestion that I'm mafia claiming SK. That just seems like such a huge stretch to me. I really don't know how to respond to that; I'm just not.
Actually, I'm not voting you, and don't want you lynched immediately. I am holding off, because Incognito mentioned some analysis of Adel he wants to post, and if you're at lynch-1, you could conceivably self hammer. So I'm waiting for that. It is true that I do want you lynched today.Guardian wrote:Really, the people who are voting/thinking highly of voting me and want me lynched immediately (e.g. Erg0, Oman, Patrick) -- that's actually a slight scum tell. The mafia must be absolutely writhing right now about me possibly not getting lynched, and would love to just hammer and get me dead. Food for thought^.
I'd like the people who are defending Guardian to address either my arguments about it or Erg0's arguments, which have some overlap. In particular, I want someone to explain why they believe Guardian is telling the truth about being an SK, because some people seem to be glazing right over that.
I think Guardian is mafia, probably with Oman and Xylthixlm. Adel is a reasonable reserve, but her play looks more insane/retarded than outright scummy, and the group of 3 fits together quite well.
Note: I've got no home access at the moment. Hopefully it will be fixed soon.Primpod 11:13 pm
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This is just a denial, which is worthless in mafia. You've said that it's crazy to think you could be mafia doing this, so I expect you to present reasons why that's the case. You haven't because you don't have any. End of story I guess.Guardian wrote:Pretty much, I can't think of any possible argument to make. When I claimed, I hadn't conceived of the possibility that mafia might ever claim to be an SK in any scenario. That thought was not on my mind, I was thinking how, in my scenario, to salvage being lynched today. I'm just not mafia.
Eh? This equates to defending you, because they're trying to keep you alive today. And stop repeating that letting you live is rational play. It quite clearly isn't.Guardian wrote:Let's be clear, no one's defending me, their just realizing that the rational play is to not lynch me today.
Again, a worthless denial, with a little emotion to make it look better. You've got nothing here.Guardian wrote:Okay, this really is the most frustrating bullshit ever. I'm a freaking SK. I figured out that it made sense to claim my role, and now multiple people are bringing up Oh, but what if he really is mafia claiming SK. Give me a break, people. I figured out, as SK, how to benefit myself and the town *by claiming SK*. Don't mess that up for me and the town by WIFOMing yourself to death about how I could possibly be mafia.
Well... whatever flavour of scum you are, you decided that the cop claim wasn't enough, so you went for an SK claim to try and stay alive. That's reasonable play from an SK, and reasonable play from mafia. We definitely have a mafia in this game, probably with 3 members, and we don't even know we have an SK. Why is itGuardian wrote:Other than crass paranoia... why? The impetus on you is to show how it is a plausible scenario that I'm mafia claiming SK, and at least nearing the likelihood that I'm SK claiming SK. Trying to lynch me off of parania that I'm some godlike mafia player who realized, as mafia, that he needed to claim SK... I mean, wtf, really...notreasonable to think you might be mafia?
My suggestion of a Guardian/Oman/Xylthixlm mafia is not "crass paranoia". Those are the three players who I find scummiest in this game, and you fit together reasonably well as a mafia group (no obvious disassociations). I've already explained my suspicions quite extensively, and I don't have time to write a novel now, because I'm on limited time at the library.
Anyway, if at some point you want to present a decent argument for why you can't possibly be mafia scum, or a decent rebuttal to anything I've said, feel free. But don't waste my time with with appeals to emotion or denials or insults to my intelligence.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Home access still down. Boy this game is growing fast.
I think this is far from clear, but I won't argue with particular point right now.Xylthixlm wrote:If we're at 5 town, 3 mafia, 1 SK, we need to lynch mafia today. Full stop. Lynching the SK is not an option with any chance of winning.
This is flawed logic, which could actually be bordering on a slip from you.Xylthixlm wrote:I was pretty well convinced that Adel was an SK, and Guardian^2 mafia. Guardian's SK claim blows that theory out of the water. If Guardian is mafia, claiming SK is an extremely gutsy move; his claim would be flattened if someone else claimed the Guardian^1 kill. I'm inclined to think he's telling the truth.Why are you ignoring the possibility that the Guardian1 kill was performed by the mafiaand that Guardian2 is mafia? Is it because you know that the mafia didn't kill Guardian1 last night? Also note: I could see a possibility where Guardian2 is mafia, the mafia killed pickem last night, and that Guardian is claiming SK to try and get a feel for who the gun killer is from the reactions.
I see that this has been mentioned by Incog and Erg0 in later posts. I agree with them.
Vote: Guardian. I think it's the hammer, and I think we've had a good amount of information from today.
If Guardian is mafia and I'm not around tomorrow, I can only reiterate that I like Oman and Xylthixlm as his buddies. Xylthixlm's play today has been pretty scummy, I got the vague feeling 24 hours ago that he was holding back on giving an opinion on the whole Guardian claims SK issue, so he could wait to see which way the wind blew, which is why I asked his opinion. I haven't liked his play much in general, as I've discussed already in several previous posts, and his defence of Guardian2 today hasn't improved my opinion of him. ChaosOmega's day 1, "your posts are just useless bullshit" comment to Xylthixlm look vaguely like distancing.
If Guardian is an SK and I'm not around, still look at Xyl and Oman as possible scumbuddies. Xylthixlm has been way too lenient on Oman all game, including a craplogical defence of him which I discussed in post 849. Oman's play today has been consistently scummy, no attempts to scumhunt or contribute anything real to the discussion.
As for others, Adel is possible scum in either scenario, with Jitsu and Matt_S being my other possibles. I'm pretty sure both Inconito and Erg0 are town, and if Guardian is mafia that will pretty much confirm my view.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I decided to hammer because I felt like the day had gone on long enough, and I was mainly putting out my thoughts in case I was killed. I didn't particularly feel like giving Adel another chance to change her mind and unvote, particularly considering how difficult it seemed to be getting a claimed scum lynched.Xylthixlm wrote:Thanks for raising this issue and hammering in the same post. I actually addressed this in my post, then realized the explanation didn't add anything but wordiness and deleted it. If Guardian1 was the mafia kill, then someone claiming the pickemgenius kill would have logically meant that Guardian1 was the mafia kill, which would have screwed Guardian2 just as much as if Guardian1 wasn't the mafia kill and someone else claimed it.
Not particularly. I think any vig that had information suggesting Guardian was lying would only have come forward if absolutely necessary to secure a lynch.Xylthixlm wrote:Since it turns out that Guardian2 was mafia, that means that the second killer decided not to claim their kill (whichever one it was), which raises the chance that we do have an SK.
My top suspects remain the same, but no vote just yet.Primpod 11:13 pm
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