Mini 527 - Doom in Valencia - Game Over!

[Tarhalindur]

I am here.

Fortunately, rereading should not take long.

[Tarhalindur]

After my first read, three players are sticking out like sore thumbs: Archaist, neko, and gorckat.

Archaist - There are three big marks against Archaist, IMO. First, he attacks Soupfly because of Soupfly's reaction test on neko; moreover, the way in which he does so is the reaction I would expect from a scum who sees his buddy get reaction-tested (especially since he all-but-ignores gorckat's attack on neko). Second, his attack on soupfly appears to be an indirect defense of neko (this is bad for town, since in most situations it is best to let a player speak for themself, and it gives me the impression that there is a connection between Archaist and neko). Third, he points out a number of neko's scummy actions in his second to last post, yet fails to make any conclusions about neko's alignment. This reeks of both scum advising a buddy and the Information Instead of Analysis (IIoA) tell, and has placed Archaist firmly on my scumdar.

neko - The thing that stands out to me most about neko is that he has FoS'ed gorckat THREE times, all apparently seriously, yet his only actual vote for gorckat was a random vote that was quickly withdrawn (and placed on Archaist as a "conversation starter", no less). Moreover, neko then proceeded to vote Sikario for reasons that appear to be weaker than his points against gorckat. This absolutely REEKS of scum distancing (specifically, the Friend of Scum tell, where a scum FoS'es their buddy but never votes him); this is reinforced by how neko seems to respond to gorckat and to a lesser extent Archaist more than most (all?) other players, without actually voting for one of them. In addition to this, Neko has also been focusing on theory rather than scumhunting, especially in recent post (the IIoA tell again), and my gut feeling is that neko is trying too hard to appear comfortable with the votes on him (can't point out why, though).

Gorckat - Gorckat starts by random voting gorckat and Archaist, in that order (reeks of scum distancing). His play since then has included relatively little content (short posts that give the appearance of participating without actually doing so, let alone scumhunting) and most of his comments have been on material from Archaist and neko (once again suggesting that there is a connection between the three - scumbuddies, perhaps?).

In short, these three players seem to be betraying some sort of connection between themselves, and some of their posts (especially neko's) give me the strong impression that they are all distancing scum. Moreover, none of them have offered much if any analysis of their own, and none of them has really contributed to scumhunting.

While I admit that I haven't fully analyzed the other players yet (SirWario in particular), I'm pretty sure that I want to lynch one of Archaist, neko, and gorckat today. I'm seeing way too many ties for me to ignore.

Vote: neko
Big Fat FoS of Doom: Archaist, gorckat

[Tarhalindur]

/prodded

Time to look over the thread...

I see the case on Pra. I'll move at deadlinbe if we must force a lynch, but I think Gorgon, SirWario or sikario are better choices.

Holy scummy post, Batman. Gorckat is parroting other player's suspicions and supporting a wagon without actually placing his vote on it (or even a FoS, for that matter).

Have you gathered up any further suspicion or worry in the two weeks since then?

... and look, gorckat is asking for another player's analysis while offering no analysis of his own! Classic scum maneuver.

Gorckat's early play drew my attention in my initial reread, and what I'm seeing here only reinforces my suspicions. I am mystified as to why people are allowing Gorckat to slide under the radar here.

Unvote, Vote: Gorckat
FoS: neko

- I haven't forgotten him, either.

I'll look over Pra again, but at the moment I don't see much merit to MeMe's case (my gut read on Sammich in my initial read was that he was town). I'll also take a second look at MeMe, too.

[Tarhalindur]

Unvote, Vote: Guardian

Frankly, I'm not especially fond of either the DR or the Arakorn wagons. Consider this a protest vote.

[Tarhalindur]

After last night, I'm pretty damn sure that the Arakorn wagon was a scumwagon.

Vote: MeMe
LOCK ON: MeMe

[Tarhalindur]

I want to hear from Gorgon, mikeburnfire, and preferably soupfly and Archaist before I reveal my reasoning.

Also, we have a couple of players who are in desperate need of prodding (limited access or not):

Mod, can we have some Prods on Pra and Archaist?

[Tarhalindur]

The responses from Mikeburnfire and soupfly give me most of the information I was looking for (and I can live without Gorgon's take on things for now), and I'm pretty sure that I can now break the game in half for the town win, so it's time for me to claim.

I am a Mason-Cop (mod-confirmed Sane, and my masonry is mod-confirmed innocent). I investigated MeMe last night and got a Guilty on her. (This is why I Locked On to MeMe - for those unfamiliar with the term, it means that I am sure enough about someone's guilt that, barring extreme circumstances, I will not unvote that player until that player is dead.)

Now, as for Arakorn's questions:

1) Why ignore Gorgon? Because I don't know if he is scum (and given the way Mikeburnfire and Soupfly reacted to my vote, he's currently below both of them on my scumlist), and I am all-but-certain that MeMe is scum - and, most importantly, I am absolutely certain that MeMe is the play for today.

2) Actually, you have it wrong - I didn't really think that the Arakorn wagon was a scumwagon until I got a guilty on MeMe. I did, however, think that the DR wagon was a scumwagon up until the lynch - I thought it was fairly clear from my posts that I thought that gorckat and yourself were scum up until DR's role was revealed.

3) Let's just call it a protest vote and leave it at that. Understood?

[Tarhalindur]

Now the question is, which one(s) of {Mikeburnfire, soupfly, gorgon} is MeMe's partner?

Harder to answer, that question is.

[Tarhalindur]

At this point, I'm pretty sure that four other players are town (I won't elaborate exactly who at this time, since one of these is the other mason), and I'm leaning town on one other. Considering that I know that I am town, that leaves three players that I consider likely candidates for being scum (Mikeburnfire, soupfly, and Gorgon).

As an aside, the reason I claimed as quickly as I did was because mikeburnfire and soupfly (two of my top suspects at this point) both responded to my vote by attacking me (CLASSIC SCUM REACTION). That's pretty damn informative, IMO.

[Tarhalindur]

The bad news: I was roleblocked last night.

The good news: My mason partner told me a very interesting piece of information that I want to follow up on.

Soupfly, you need to fullclaim.

[Tarhalindur]

who did you investigate last night tar?

Irrelevant. Claim or die.

[Tarhalindur]

Soupfly fullclaim first, talk about everything else later. Kai?

[Tarhalindur]

It's time to come clean on my end.

I was gambiting. There was no "interesting piece of information from my mason partner". The real reason why I came down so hard on you, soupfly, is because Jenter explicitly told me that you were responsible for roleblocking me last night using a bus (either a side-effect of your role or yet another, previously unknown ability of my Overpowered Role of Investigative Brokenness (tm)), and I was trying to draw out a claim that would be inconsistent with my knowledge that you roleblocked me last night (which would have pretty much nailed you as Mafia Roleblocker).

I'm leaning towards believing Soupfly's claim (or at least letting him live for a bit). If Neko can confirm receiving (or at least being offered) a money forging machine N1 then I will consider soupfly pretty-much-confirmed town.

[Tarhalindur]

EPWOP: As a side note, now that Soupfly has claimed, I might as well reveal my target last night: mikeburnfire.

[Tarhalindur]

Current player reads:

Definitely town: Tarhalindur (DUH!)
Almost certainly pro-town: Soupfly (all-but-cleared by claim and neko)
Strong town read: Arakorn (pro-town play + MeMe attack D1), Pra (I still can't see Sammich's play as coming from scum, and he replaced Sammich), Gorckat (leading role on DR lynch)
Town read: Neko (decent play + role in DR lynch), Javert (can't really see Archaist as scum with DR/MeMe)
Scum read: Gorgon (amazingly under-the-radar, was on the Arakorn wagon with MeMe, is still trying to cast suspicion on me despite me claiming a role that has caught scum and is INSTANTLY confirmable)
Strong scum read: Mikeburnfire (SirWario's play looks especially scummy, seems to be tied to MeMe and Sikario - look at his posts, MeMe and Sikario were practically the only two players he responded to

and Sikario explicitly asked for a prod on him

, SirWario as scum makes the Guardian kill make even more sense, attacked me for attacking MeMe)

My mason partner (who I would still prefer to leave unnamed, but note that I have breadcrumbed in a fashion) is one of the players who I am claiming to have a strong town read on.

I'm willing to lynch Gorgon today if necessary (and I want to lynch Gorgon tomorrow if MBF is actually town), but I'm pretty sure that MBF is the correct lynch for today.

Vote: Mikeburnfire

[Tarhalindur]

Okay, I think I know how this should go down.

We lynch MBF today. Soupfly uses Rocket of Death on Gorgon tonight (I'd be surprised if the rocket isn't a 1-shot vig), while I investigate one of the players I have a town read on (probably Javert). Second mason (and just so everybody is clear, there are exactly 2 masons - after watching how the Replicators won SG-1, I'm going to make damn sure that scum don't get to claim third mason FTW) claims tomorrow should he/she survive the night (pointing out my funky breadcrumb for confirmation) and I reveal my result should I survive the night.

Even in the worst-case-scenario (MBF + Gorgon town, I get killed tonight), we enter D4 with 6 alive, of which 2 are all-but-cleared (mason partner + soupfly) and two more are very likely to be town (gorckat, who came down heavily on sikario, and neko, who was also on the sikario wagon, seemed to play very pro-town concerning me yesterday, and seems to have been investigated town by Soupfly). That leaves Javert and one of {Arakorn, Pra} as the best options for lynch - lynch Javert D4 and whichever one of {Pra, Arakorn} isn't cleared by mason claim gets lynched D5, which should lead to a town win (unless one of Gorckat and Neko is playing an incredibly good game as scum).

If Soupfly's rocket turns out to be something besides a vig, then we make up for it by lynching Gorgon tomorrow and proceeding with the plan as intended (mason still claims tomorrow, and I still reveal my result if possible).

Anyone see any gaping flaws with the plan which I'm being blind about?

[Tarhalindur]

First: After reviewing the events at the end of yesterday, one thing stood out - as it turns out, I misread the vote count, and neko, not Gorckat, was the leader on the Sikario lynch. This elevates neko to "all-but-confirmed town" in my eyes, and drops Gorckat down to "likely town" along with whichever one of Pra and Arakorn I'm not lying about due to mason-ness.

Now: To follow up on my original plan, I think I found something that should remove the last vulnerability in the plan.

In addition to his Rocket of Death, Soupfly has claimed a horn-like object. I (like Soupfly himself) think that this item is likely a roleblock. If this is, in fact, the case, then we are all-but-guaranteed a town win, because in the current situation a roleblock is as good as an investigation.

Assume that we lynch MBF as town, Soupfly successfully vigs Gorgon as town, and I am NK'ed as town (obviously). Town lynches Javert as town, and then Soupfly uses his third ability to attempt to attempt to roleblock whichever one of {Pra, Arakorn} is not the second mason.

If the third item works as expected and there is a kill, then a town win is guaranteed because Soupfly's target is confirmed town (since said target couldn't have made the mafia kill), leaving 3 out of 4 players all-but-confirmed (assuming that Soupfly is killed N4, then my mason partner, Soupfly's N3 target, and neko) and we lynch scum FTW. (D3 lynch MBF, N3 Tar mafia killed, N3 Gorgon vigged, D4 mason claims (clearing another player), D4 Javert lynched, N4 {Pra, Arakorn} RB'ed, N4 Soupfly mafia killed, D5 lynch Gorckat ftw (Arakorn, Pra, neko clear) - note that this scenario

assumes

optimal play by the scum)

If there is no NK on N4, then town enters D5 with 5 alive (Arakorn, Pra, Soupfly, neko, gorckat). Lynch whichever of {Arakorn, Pra} was RB'ed; if that fails, lynch Gorckat ftw.

If Soupfly is killed tonight instead of me and I get another innocent, then we have 4 of 6 living players all-but-confirmed town (me, Javert, neko, mason partner) and win the game in 2 lynches.

Of course, if one of {MBF, Gorgon, Javert} is the last scum, then the game ends early with a town victory.

If we are correct in believing that Soupfly's noise maker is a roleblock, then the only way that the Mafia have any chance of winning is if one of Gorckat, Pra, or Arakorn is a Mafia Roleblocker (and even then we have a 50% chance of winning based on random chance alone) or if we are dealing with a second mafia (unlikely given known information). If Soupfly's third ability does not RB and we reach LyLo, then we have a 50% chance of winning even if we flip a coin (neko + mason partner clear, Gorckat and one of {Pra, Arakorn} uncleared - and even in the worst case scenario [Soupfly inadvertently motivates scum] we have a 3 player endgame with 1 player cleared)

Acceptable changes to the plan: lynching Gorgon today and killing MBF tonight, placing Gorckat ahead of {Pra, Arakorn} in the lynch order (and therefore having Soupfly block Gorckat N4).

[Tarhalindur]

EBWOP: Wait, two more considerations (one is a pretty big flaw... oops)

1) If the trumpet-like object is not a RB and it hits scum, then scum can skate through to endgame on the night result. Has to be factored into consideration.

2) Mafia Strongman could screw this up royally, too.

2) Using the trumpet-like object tonight (for a virtual double investigation) may be the better play (it should nullify a Mafia Roleblocker, come to think of it). Soupfly block Gorgon, I investigate Javert (or vice versa), vig a player N4 if no better action is available?

Need some time to think through things thoroughly.

[Tarhalindur]

Short on time, but I will say this:

I want to keep Arakorn and Pra alive for the time being, due to mason concerns (and I still have a pro-town read on both).

I don't want to lynch Gorckat today, there are three better targets.

Javert's last few posts have raised his position on my scum list - he's now equal with Gorgon.

I want to reread again before making any final decision.

[Tarhalindur]

I just tried a reread on the thread.

I will grant that Javert has a point about not trusting Neko just yet, but I still think that neko is very likely tp be town (he came under heavy fire D1 and stayed on Sikario/DR for the majority of the day). I'll keep an eye on him, but I don't think we should lynch him just yet.

I'm getting some cold feet about MBF myself - as much a gut feeling as anything else.

Unvote

The player that stood out the most during the second reread was Gorgon - he was the other player on the Arakorn wagon, and I think I'm seeing the IIoA (Information Instead of Analysis) tell in Gorgon's posts. In particular, I can't see much if any actual scumhunting in Gorgon's posts - just theory and following in others' footsteps.

Vote: Gorgon

for now, look over his posts again later.

[Tarhalindur]

LAME.