Open 54 - Basic 12 Player (over) before 529

[Bookitty]

I don't think it's very useful to look at the lynched person's suspicions... chances are we took that into consideration before we lynched them. But looking at who was NKed can be interesting (albeit full of WIFOM).

My personal feeling is that statements like this:

I had no idea you'd actually say anything about it. You don't mind, do you? I mean, it's practically harmless and, if it does come up to something, I can easily withdraw my vote. I just...want to appear...well...active.

and this:

Are you honestly this upset about being lynched?

are oddly self-conscious, and in the latter case, seemingly incurious and uncaring about the outcome of a possible lynch. Despite the obvious argument that he always plays this way, the comment about wanting to appear a certain way is definitely a scumtell.

Since JDodge was town, why wouldn't he be upset at being lynched? Don't you care about his mislynch? And why do you want to "appear" active, when you're not actually being active and helpful?

I'd like an explanation of these statements. Thus, I'm placing a vote to pressure that explanation.

vote: Sikario8

[Bookitty]

Andycyca: Not especially active. Suspicions seem reasonable and based on pretty sound logic. I don't like the accusation of Shanba fake-distancing from Patrick and then the strangely mild response when Shanba argues that he's not distancing (Shanba missing the whole point). A few odd things, but I'm putting Andy as probable town.

Glork: Pretty solid pro-town play. I don't have any good meta on Glork, but I don't see anything I could class as very scummy. He pressures people who need it, he argues cases that make sense to me. Probably town. I doubt I'd know if he weren't though.

Ripley: Seemingly trying to manufacture cases at first. Overjustifies himself by a great deal of speculation on the motives of others (a WIFOM proposition at best). Really reaching on his case against Apple. Seems really angry and statements like this:

You seem to enjoy provoking people into speculating on your motivation rather than just answering the question in the first place. That wouldn't be any fun for you, would it? You have to be allowed to play out your little games. I have absolutely no idea what your motivation was, and have no intention of being browbeaten by you into making a stance on a matter where I don't know the answer.

in context with his long series of speculations on Apple's motives for what was essentially a random vote... this seems really off. Possibly angry town, but more likely defensive scum. If my vote wasn't on Crub it would be on Ripley.

IH: Lurks a lot due to illness. Some back-and-forth with wank. Metagames him and thinks he's likely scum because he's not playing the way he did as town, but then when questioned about what game was involved, covers his bases with this: "His play is slightly similar". This made me laugh a lot: "I made you a cookie, but I eated it." All in all, most likely town, but the comment about wank seemed a bit off. Could be distancing with wank.

Sikario8: I already stated I can't get a read on him. He seems scummy to me more than usual in this game, but that could be a difference in the level of activity. No opinion,

unvote

for now.

Crub: Sets up this weird crapwagon and then announces he's drawn conclusions from people's reactions to it. Claims Glork is controlling the town (with his secret mind control powers, no doubt, I believe Glork has been warned about this before) and then unvotes for no reason I can see. A number of flippant and unhelpful responses. Makes some comments about defensiveness due to people questioning his weird ploy and his purported conclusions from it. Then does the whole WIFOM about the nightkills. My read, probably scum.

vote: Crub

Patrick: Patrick is always town. I don't see anything in this game to make me think any different.

Shanba: At first, Shanba appears to be trying to scumhunt, albeit not being especially careful in reading the people he's accusing. I don't get the forest analogy. If you make a case against someone and then other people agree with it and vote for them, well, that's called a lynch. I don't understand the scumminess of trying to lynch someone you find scummy. Seems pretty certain that some people are town, and really not liking the "Glork didn't catch scum, therefore Glork is scum" argument. Glork may be scum, but that's a pretty unfair argument. I'm leaning toward scum on Shanba.

wank: I hate this quote, and it's pretty recent: "I can't tell who's scum at this point....I find everyone townie but...perhaps ih or sika has a sprinkle of scumness." I liked the pressure on Ripley, I am not a fan of the one-line posts, and I think it's important to remember if you find everyone townie, that leaves only you to be scum, all by yourself. On the whole, possible but not likely scum.

[Bookitty]

Okay, I'm starting this with the caveat that I'm pretty sure Patrick is a much more experienced player than me, so while I think he's town, he may well be scum and just smarter than me.

First, this post:

What in my two posts made you think I'm protown?

doesn't seem like something scum would say. In my experience, scum tends to be so happy other people think they're town, they don't question why.

This post is more of the same thing:

I wondered about possible buddying up, since all his posts have contained comments about my innocence, but having read his reasoning I could see it as genuine (though even from my biased perspective, I don't agree with it).

I agree with this sentiment in general:

Surely it's better to post in detail and answer to everything, than post briefly and leave stuff out? If you want to pick apart what he's written that's fine, but accusing him of typing too much seems like an easy way to throw suspicion on him.

And later:

What does this mean? Why do you find it scummy that we're contributing alot?

Even though this comes later, and is odd in itself:

Non contributor? No, I've contributed more than alot of people. How the hell am I a non contributor when 3 people haven't said or done anything at all? I'm annoyed by this.

So Patrick is scummy for contributing a lot, AND not contributing? Um... how does that work?

Rational response to a fairly odd attack (not scummy, just odd):

I don't get this at all. Setting aside the fact that you don't agree with it for a second, I had an actual reason to suspect apple. I had no reason to suspect sikario. So why would you expect the same type and amount of pressure on both players? This is ridiculous. It's normal to go harder after someone who has done something you find suspicious.

In short, I find Patrick town, because the early statements looked town to me, and I haven't seen anything that seemed really scummy. I don't agree with Shanba's accusation about slipping onto wagons that were building, I don't like the forest analogy. It's reaching, considerably in my view.

So, Patrick is town, because he isn't scummy, in my view.

As always, I could be wrong.

[Bookitty]

My take on Glork's homework assignment was that in both those cases, a vote was placed on someone (during a period where many votes were being placed without reasons, in general) and someone else asked/demanded a reason for THAT vote, out of all others, thus betraying a personal interest in the person being voted for. In both cases the one being voted with was a scumbuddy of the person asking for an explanation.

In this game, the corresponding event would be Ripley demanding an explanation from Apple, my predecessor, for his vote on IH.

Am I right, Glork?

(Oh, and merry Glorkmas, everyone.)

[Bookitty]

don't tread on me.

Lynch Glork.

In other news, after modding duties this game comes first.

Why are you asking others to lynch Glork when you're not even voting him?

[Bookitty]

My vote is currently on Crub. I guess at this point I would more support a Ripley lynch, so I'll do this:

unvote; vote Ripley

I feel badly for doing this over the holidays, but I feel more confident about Ripley being scum than Crub, so that's where my vote should be.

Happy holidays, everyone!

[Bookitty]

I'm still thinking Ripley is the scummiest.

Since we're not getting much input from anyone (and yes, the holidays are difficult) I hope I'm right.

[Bookitty]

I'm not the cop either.

[Bookitty]

Glork, I'm in the process of doing a reread with some analysis.

It's taking some time. If you want my input without said analysis, that's fine. I'm still not going to vote until I have better information than I do now. And while you are cleared, I'm STILL not trailing your votes and suspicions without better evidence than I currently have. (I thought Ripley was scum, remember?)

Shouting at the rest of the town isn't all that helpful. It's possible (maybe not likely) that other people are doing a targeted reread themselves, and thus aren't posting for that reason.

I see no reason you would have assumed Sikario was town, given my personal meta with him, so for one, I think that assumption may be based on facts not in evidence. I want my own read on the situation, and I'm not going to rush to agree or disagree until I can analyse the game with the added information we have now.

[Bookitty]

Additionally, having a deadline in the middle of the holidays was unfortunate, and created a bad situation, but that's what we have to work with. I don't think that makes the town atrocious. I chose poorly, and maybe that would have been the case whichever way I went. But blaming the rest of the town for what I did, if that's what you mean, is not really fair.

[Bookitty]

I see no reason you would have assumed Sikario was town, given my personal meta with him

Could you link to games in which you've played with Siki? I don't really have a meta on him -- I had just been reading his play in this game.

If you've been in a game where he was scum, that would be especially helpful.

They are ongoing. I can provide the links, but no commentary.

Just a sec.

[Bookitty]

Actually, I cannot. According to the rules, I shouldn't have referenced them at all. But I do have a meta read on both.

[Bookitty]

First things first:

I found Ripley's overreaction to Glork to be scummy, Patrick, and it overruled my previous opinion of Crub because it was so over-the-top.

Okay, though I wasn't asked for it, my towniest-to-scummiest list:

• IH
  Glork (both of these should be obvious)
  Patrick: I still don't see anything obviously scummy from him. I have looked a LOT now. I don't rule out that he's experienced enough not to make any obvious mistakes though.
  Shanba: He's actually helped himself a lot with recent posts in my opinion. His response to my original suspicions seemed pretty genuine.
  Andycyca: I don't think he's the most likely scum, but he or Shanba nearly have to be, in my opinion.
  Sikario/TheStatusQuo: I've seen Sikario as scum now so I do have an idea of what to look for. I'm betting I saw him as scum in this game as well.
  Crub: I should have stayed with my original suspicions on the last lynch.

Looking at connections with Patrick, to double-check my read on him as town. Shanba and Patrick don't work as a scumteam, Patrick and Sikario don't work as a scumteam. Hmmm, Crub has a point about Patrick and Andy, but that's one out of the four I think likely, and it's a lot easier in my opinion to see a Crub/Sikario/Andy scumteam than a Patrick/Andy/??? scumteam. I just can't place who that last person would be, given that Crub made this suggestion.

If I've missed something or forgotten something, please point it out.

[Bookitty]

Shanba and Patrick seemed legitimately to be at each other's throats. Additionally, if you try to put Andy into this scumteam, you end up looking at this post and this quote specifically directed at Andy: "I'm seriously wondering whether you are Patrick's scumbuddy or something. Of course, that would invalidate my whole argument against Patrick." Which seems a bit much, even for very confident scum.

Patrick is aware of Sikario's playstyle. I don't see him pressuring Sikario, given Sikario's propensity for weird behavior, with a post like this:

But wouldn't Shanba benefit more from actively, if discreetly, pushing a bandwagon? Let the town lynch itself?

Not sure I understand. Actively pushing a bandwagon suggests a different thing to me than letting a town lynch itself.

I'll tell you why I voted later, advisement's over

Not good enough when we're deadlined in this way. If you have solid reasoning for thinking Elmo is scum, you need to share it now. I'm becoming a bit sceptical.

I think Patrick would have left Sikario alone as much as possible if they were scumbuddies, given the likely bad effects of pressuring him. That's not what happened, so I don't see them as likely scumbuddies.

[Bookitty]

Possible. I didn't think it likely. And I'm sure it's not the case with Sikario, because Sikario tends to vote himself pretty much whenever he's under pressure as town or scum, and I think Patrick would probably be aware of that fact.

As I've said before, I don't have any true read on Patrick's alignment, because he's one of those people who always look town to me. I'm presenting my opinion, but it's only my opinion, and as such I could always be wrong. I was wrong about Ripley, so take it for what it's worth.

And on preview, I see you've addressed the Shanba issue specifically. I do have the sense that Shanba was pursuing Patrick throughout the game, and not just in that post, though I can't check that at the moment (I will in a sec). If I'm correct in my recollection, it would seem pretty odd that Shanba would specifically tunnel on his buddy when there were other suspects available.

[Bookitty]

Patrick and Glork look very protown to me, as they are encouraging discussion. Shanba is the only one giving me scummy vibes, like he's trying to make up a distancing scene with anyone jumping on wagons.

Can you elaborate on what you mean here? Do you think Shanba is scum distancing himself from someone?

When you say you’re becoming a bit sKeptical and say that my reason isn’t good enough – what do you mean? You’re shooting one-liners. What do you think about Shanba, what is your opinion?

The reason I'm becoming a bit sceptical, is that so far you haven't really done anything at all, so I don't like how you think you're in a position to be witholding reasons, especially with a deadline. I don't know if your reason is good enough, because I don't know what it is, or even if you have one.

Your suggestion that I'm shooting one liners makes it obvious you haven't read my posts. And I gave an opinion of Shanba only a few posts ago. What's going on here?

i have no idea, but i'll get over it

(a while later)

@Patrick: You say my statement is not true. I say it is. When you vote for appleof88, Ripley had been grilling him and Elmo had his vote on him. It wasn't a bandwagon yet, but it definitely had the potential to become one. Then, when questioned on it, you just back off, but you don't unvote. You sort of defer to Glork adn say that your vote was weak, but you don't go anywhere with it. Then, on Andy: Andy had had a little wagon against him earlier, but you don't vote him (despite you admitting your apple vote was weak). Then, when there's a slight resurgence, with wank and crub indicating they don't like Andy's last post and then you vote for him. You say that there was only one vote and a few drabs of suspicion on him - yes, that's true, but there had been a wagon against him before and it's not inconceivable that it would pick up again. Basically, I just hate the timing of your two votes. Also, you never mention the apple vote.

I recognise that apple could have become a bandwagon, although I don't think that's a big deal early on. I did not back off from it, I just found myself having to explain it several times. Also, I don't think it was any more likely than usual that a bandwagon was going to form on Andy at the time I voted him. I think your "resurgence" thing is exagerated; wank and Crub only expressed disdain at worst, and didn't FoS or vote him. Weaksauce here.

(and as I reread this, yes, it looks vaguely conciliatory. I can see this point.)

And from here it goes into the forest analogy (still think that's nonsense) and the whole defense where this passage is:

@Shanba: OK, I admit I'm awful at scumhunting on D1, I always move at a slow pace in the beginning. But you said Patrick moves "on a wagon just as it's taking off" Unless my memory, my english or my maths are wrong, you were in my wagon earlier. Several people unvoted and when Patrick voted, my "wagon" was (oh my!) 2 votes long, (see votecount on 255) I don't think that's jumping on a wagon just as it's taking off. Besides, he gave a somewhat reasonable reason (duh) behind his vote. Also Patrick strikes me as more protown than you, as he's encouraging good discussion (and before I knew you were sick, I thought you might've been lurking)

So, lessee. Because people had jumped off your wagon, there was no hope of a resurgence, despite the fact that the main pusher (IH) had returned and a couple of people had just expressed suspicion of you? Oh, and also, you agree with Patrick then that you were copying people a lot, and you're not looking for scum. Because of that, Patrick is pro-town because of this and I am therefore scum who is trying to make it look like I'm distancing. Honestly, I can only hope I've misunderstood something, because that logic is insane.

Also, I never said you and patrick are distancing, I commented that you might be trying to frame him on a "distancing" scene. Now I admit that suspicion is wearing off, but still IGMEOY

I cannot believe you honestly think this. I'm seriously wondering whether you are Patrick's scumbuddy or something. Of course, that would invalidate my whole argument against Patrick. Bleh. You make little sense to me.

Which is just a bit more blatant than I think smart OR dumb scum is going to be. Whatever the scumgroup ends up, I'm betting against Patrick/Shanba/Andycyca because of this.

I think Shanba was more or less tunnelling on Patrick. I dunno that bussing would cover that.

[Bookitty]

I can see the logic of Patrick/Andycyca quite easily. If Crub hadn't suggested that link himself I would likely believe a Patrick/Andycyca/Crub scumteam. But I don't see a Patrick/Shanba/Andycyca scumteam based on the posts I've mentioned. Patrick/Andycyca/Sikario MIGHT work. I don't know how someone would handle Sikario if they were scum with him, in all honesty.

If Shanba was distancing with Patrick, it was sustained and believable. In contrast, Shanba largely ignores Sikario, with this being one of the few references:

I've read the Jdodge wagon now, and I'm not sure what to make of it. Sikario is the first vote, but Elmo had been pressuring JD prior to Sikario's vote. Sik never really explains why he voted, but he seems genuine in his conviction that JD is scum.

I can see Shanba/Sikario pretty easily. Andycyca also didn't have a lot to say about Sikario, and it was all noncommittal, so I guess I could also see a Patrick/Andycyca/Sikario scumteam, with Patrick pressuring Sikario and Sikario responding pretty weakly. It's a little risky, but given Sikario's lack of real response to Patrick's pressure, I guess it's possible.

I did a quick reread on TSQ's contributions, and I'm not seeing much to change my mind about Sikario, so I'm sticking with my original listing. Shanba and Andycyca about tied, and the other two much worse. I would be willing to vote any of the four bottom of my list, but I think Andycyca gives us the best information about who to lynch tomorrow.

[Bookitty]

I've been following the thread. I just didn't want to interrupt if Crub was going to say anything else that would even further confirm my suspicions of him.

Andy may or may not be scum. I thought, previously, that he was the most certain bet. Right now though, looking at likely cross connections and Crub's recent statements, I guess I think the most likely scum team is Crub/Shanba/TSQ. I can see Patrick, sort of, in that (I think I've explained why but if it's not clear already I'll surely do so again on request) and my problem with Patrick in general is that I can only link him with Andy with any confidence. I don't see Patrick with Crub or Shanba really.

If we take Andycyca out of the equation (purely for argument's sake) then Shanba has the most likelihood for being scumbuddies with one of the others. I still don't find him scummiest in behaviour, but based on connections, I think he's most likely to be scum, because I think I can see the most teams that include Shanba at the moment. I'm not certain that this is a reasonable way to deduce who scum might be, but that's what I'm looking at right now.

I'm not going to vote yet, because I want to try to put these connections into some sort of coherent (to someone other than me) form and post them. I think lynching Shanba today gives us good links to his scumbuddies. I really WANT to lynch Crub because he seems scummiest to me.

Anyway, I'll work on that, and post it soon.

[Bookitty]

Things I know for sure: IH and Glork are town.

Things I am convinced of:

Shanba and Patrick are very unlikely to be scumbuddies.

Shanba's early vote and then unvote of Andy "Reasonably happy with Andy's response." Might be distancing. But then the argument with Andy in which Andy accused Shanba of pretending to distance from Patrick...Andy said this: "Also, I never said you and patrick are distancing, I commented that you might be trying to frame him on a "distancing" scene." Which seems to indicate an assumption that Patrick is town (or at least trying to give the appearance thereof). So Shanba and Andy might be scumbuddies, but Patrick and Andy are far more likely.

Crub's recent posts make it very unlikely he's scum with Andycyca. So, if my reasoning is correct, these are the possible scum trios:

Shanba/Andy/TSQ
Shanba/Crub/TSQ
Patrick/Crub/TSQ
Patrick/Andy/TSQ

A link between Crub, Andy and Patrick that no one seems to have mentioned or caught:

By [scene to be added later] do you mean that we have already failed and we have lynched one of patrick/andy?

Which at the most innocuous seems to be indicating that he thinks both are town, and worst "we have already failed" might be a reference to a link between Crub and one or both of them. Either way, it's odd phrasing for someone to use if they didn't have some knowledge of the alignments. (If I'm wrong about this, please let me know.)

In light of that quote, this later one looks odd too (made under pressure, when he thought he would be lynched:

I feel there's definitely a connection between Andy and Patrick Look at it more closely tomorrow, there's scum in them thar hills.

I think the most likely scumgroup is Shanba/Crub/TSQ. If Crub is actually town, then I guess I would go with Patrick/Andy/TSQ as the next most likely possibility. The one person (and since none of you know for sure that I'm town, it's really important that you check my logic carefully in this regard and pick it to shreds) who pretty much has to be scum, if I'm right that Shanba and Patrick aren't scum together, and Crub and Andy aren't scum together, is TSQ.

So TSQ is my favoured lynch today due to the reasoning above. I'm willing to lynch Crub as well, though, because I just have a gut feeling that I was wrong about changing my vote there, and I think it's because I think Crub is scum.

As always, I could be wrong, so please, attack my reasoning on this and point out where I'm wrong. I apologise for the length of this post, but I wanted to provide my reasoning as clearly as possible since we're in LYLO.

[Bookitty]

Um, that was a whole lot of talk saying "Tsq is scum" without actually saying why TSQ is scum. In fact, most of your reasoning assumed TSQ as scum, and then argued that the others fit with him.

It would seem to be odd reasoning, then, to say that I am your favored lynch target without actually saying what i have done that is so scummy. That would seem pretty important at LAL. perhaps you could go do it now.

Actually, if you read my post, you'd understand that if Shanba and Patrick don't make sense as scumpartners, and I think everyone would pretty well agree Crub and Andycyca don't make sense as scumpartners, then you HAVE to be scum. IH and Glork can't be scum. I know I'm not. So saying I need to make a case on you is irrelevant, really, because mathematically if you accept my premises, you have to accept that you're the only person who absolutely has to be scum for them to work.

It would make more sense for you to attack my premises, because I think my logic is correct. So I don't think you understood my post.

[Bookitty]

Right, and I am saying that I disagree with some of your premises. Specifically, I don't know how you can fiat that the rest of the town should just believe you're not scum. In addition, I haven't read the thread yet, but I think your analysis is lacking in one key area, and that is that it assumes that since players don't look like scum together, then they can't be scum together. This is part of why I think looking scum partners can be good if a link exists, but is complete bunk when you're looking for an absense of a link. This is because it ignores skill. Shanba and Patrick are both fantastic experienced players. They are good at playing the game of mafia, and I think for you to assume that they'd leave direct ties to their scum partners is foolish. If you were analyzing the play of two wet behind the ears noobies, then perhaps I could see the point, but that is not how good players act.

I welcome your refutation of my premises. While I readily admit that I will take Glork and IH's comments far more seriously, since I know that they are acting in the best interests of the town, I would like everyone to pick apart my logic and show me where I'm wrong.

That said, your statement that I'm trying to "fiat" the town into believing I'm not scum is not true, which lends support to my belief that you didn't really read it. I stated quite clearly that "since none of you know for sure that I'm town, it's really important that you check my logic carefully in this regard and pick it to shreds", which is the opposite of what you accused me. So that's just a false accusation.

Your original post complained about me not making a case on you directly, which has nothing to do with my premises at all, and only now are you getting around to attacking those premises.

Additionally, since I didn't know what you were talking about, your posts regarding Chamber and some scumchat conversation don't constitute content, at least for me.

[Bookitty]

1) You can't assume you're town: None.
2) Scumpartner links are only valid for determining links, not lack of links.
a) This is because you ignore the skill of the players involved: Patrick and Shanba are skilled, experienced players who would not be likely to draw you a map right back to their scumbuddies.
b) Your point is contingent on wifom: because sometimes it is a better strategy for scum to attack a partner pretty hard at lylo in order to "clear" themselves for the next day if one of them dies.

Now, The first one is obviously bunk, its a stupid point, with little content, and it takes up one sentance in a pretty decent sized post, whereas the 2 a and b are reasonable, (probably) correct, and well warranted. This is done deliberately, in order to emphasize which style of argumentation a player is using. If you were really interested in the flaws in your logic, if you were really trying to discover my alignment in general, you would be addressing the most salient, relevant parts of the post, because discussing them can lead to the correct lynch. You didn't do this, in fact, you completely ignored them and went after the one part of the post which looked like a slam dunk can't lose make me look stupid argument for you. This reflects very poorly on what you are trying to do in this game, and I am pretty sure I will be voting you, but I want to reread before I do that.

In the mean time,

MAJOR FOS: BOOKITTY

Okay, first off, you say something that's a lie in a post, I'm going to point it out. I think pretty much anyone would.

I've stated my reasons for thinking Patrick and Shanba are unlikely scumbuddies, and I notice you don't even attack my premise that Andy and Crub are unlikely scumbuddies. Patrick and Shanba haven't attacked each other in LYLO, so what they are likely to do has nothing to do with what CRUB did in LYLO. Incidentally, my reasoning for thinking Patrick and Shanba can't be scumbuddies has nothing to do with lack of connection, which further bears out the thought that you're not actually reading the game (or at least my posts) at all. But you had said you would have further analysis, so I intended to wait until that analysis materialised before I refuted your general points. I was trying to give you time for a reread. I don't think we have all that much time, but I was willing to grant you that much.

You said: "Shanba and Patrick are both fantastic experienced players. They are good at playing the game of mafia, and I think for you to assume that they'd leave direct ties to their scum partners is foolish." Even the best players slip up. If not, there's no point in anyone else playing Mafia, is there? It's nearly as though you're saying there's no point in analysing them at all. Is that your point?

If I were going for the slam-dunk can't-lose arguments, why would I post long, content heavy posts detailing my reasoning and then request others to pick apart my logic? Surely it would be easier not to post content at all, and then to attack others for doing so, as you have done?

I'll await your analysis. Regardless of what I think about your alignment, I think it would be helpful to have everyone's opinions out on the table, and I'd like to hear yours.

[Bookitty]

Since TSQ requested this (I do have the strangest sense of deja vu):

Sikario8 provided almost zero content to the game. That's pretty consistent with a meta of him as both town and scum, though, so I'm looking at the non-content he provided.

First votes for Elmo (known townie), then defends Shanba a bit

But wouldn't Shanba benefit more from actively, if discreetly, pushing a bandwagon? Let the town lynch itself?

which could be a link between them. Patrick pushes him for his reasoning (this is why I am less convinced of a Patrick/Sikario link -- Sikario reacts very poorly under pressure, and I know Patrick knows this) and Sikario responds:

When I say let the town lynch itself, I do not mean by lurking, I mean by voting and actually having the town lynch itself while NKing at the same time – dual attack. When you say you’re becoming a bit sKeptical and say that my reason isn’t good enough – what do you mean? You’re shooting one-liners. What do you think about Shanba, what is your opinion?

This is notable in my view because Sikario8 was studiously avoiding any content except in connection with Shanba.

Votes for JDodge (known townie) and when questioned about it by Elmo (also known townie) replies:

I had no idea my vote would metamorphisize into such a catastrophe; however, JDodge doesn't seem to care, so...

The difference in how much Sikario cares about Shanba and JDodge is pretty striking.

JDodge criticises the vote as well, and Sikario8 replies:

I had no idea you'd actually say anything about it. You don't mind, do you? I mean, it's practically harmless and, if it does come up to something, I can easily withdraw my vote. I just...want to appear...well...active.

And later to JDodge:

Are you honestly this upset about being lynched?

What do you mean about Elmo? I thought he wanted a dead Shanba for Christmas.

This post is just ridiculously scummy:

You're an incredible genius, JDodge; however, I was not going to accuse you of an OMGUS - you're doing the logical thing of trying to protect yourself by throwing a vote my way unless you're actually upset about being voted for no reason, which I believe you are. Due to this, I'm going to seriously consider why I'm voting for you. While I do this, would it be possible for you to consider why I shouldn't vote you? It'd be like a court case.

O and, btw, I'm in no way trying to jokingly brush aside your desperation vote. (Hopefully, you'll be able to pull yourself up by dragging me down to the bottom of the sea, right?) LEARN TO SWIM, ASSHOLE!

He doesn't even know why he's voting him?

And this, to JDodge:

To keep from being deadline lynched, couldn't you switch your vote to someone else so that they'd have as much as you?

Any townie will do?

Another link between Sikario8 and Shanba, this one addressed to Glork:

Well hell, I don't know, YOU'RE the mastermind...!

Oh...wait...or is Shanba the smart one...? Anyway, I'd rather get rid of JDodge than Shanba.

This quote seems oddly knowing that Ripley is town and trying to cast suspicion on Glork, given what we know now:

I like this. It works so well for Glork to be the serpent confusing the young Ripley, whom clearly has no chance of survival when pitted against the big snake. Glork sees you as pathetic, Ripley, or am I still trapped in fables...?

The rest is largely garbage, and then we get to TSQ, who produces gems like this, to Glork:

Well, I'd have to read the thread to know that, now would I. Now that you're cleared, I figure I'll just Barn you.

And this:

P.S. I said that just because I knew it would make glork blow up. I'll reread eventually.

And no real content at all until I posted indicating that, given the premises I was working with, he seemed nearly certain to be scum. If nothing else, that post served a useful purpose in actually persuading TSQ to contribute to the game.

I'd still like to hear other people's opinions on my original premises. Especially if you see counterevidence or a link I've missed, speak up, and tell me where I'm wrong and why. We're nearly out of time.

[Bookitty]

The problem with your entire DWA argument is that it depends heavily on you making one assumption, and me making another.

It's surely possible that Shanba and Patrick have accused each other fairly viciously of being scum throughout the game as partners. I don't have a good meta on them as scumpartners. It's also true that I don't see it that way. I'm not going to argue a case I don't believe in. You think they're scumpartners, fine, then present a case against it that doesn't involve them being so fabulous at the game that they would never distance that heavily, or alternatively provide some links between them.

I think Glork agrees with you that they're likely scumpartners, and it's true that because I know he's town, his arguments will carry more weight with me, as will IH's, but I'm very willing to listen to counterarguments from ANYONE. I asked for them. I'm looking at the ones you provided. I'm checking them against previous games for a meta read and trying to draw conclusions. Sadly, this isn't an instant process.

The better argument against me, and the one you did not make, is that I responded to your original post (which was demanding a case against you, somewhat betraying that you hadn't read my previous posts nor my basis for argument in the post you were attacking) and attacked the obvious lie, and then in a subsequent post it's possible to argue I was reacting more out of OMGUS when you attacked me. That's a valid argument, except that your first reaction to the original post you attacked looks like OMGUS, so I can see how you wouldn't want to bring that up, perhaps.

If you think there are any links between Shanba and Patrick, then you should bring them up. I didn't see any. If you find their distancing to be false and inconsistent, you should bring that up too. Simply saying that "they're too good" seems a defeatist attitude, and one that isn't helpful, especially in LYLO. I presented my argument (something that, at that point, you had yet to do despite ample time before your computer problems), and I provided the reasoning that I used to derive my conclusions, so that others could objectively assess the merits of my case. I think that's the right thing to do. You didn't provide any content at all until you felt attacked. So the argument about "content-heavy posts" falls down, because you only did that under pressure.

I look forward to your case on me.

[Bookitty]

Right, and I am saying that I disagree with some of your premises. Specifically, I don't know how you can fiat that the rest of the town should just believe you're not scum. In addition, I haven't read the thread yet, but I think your analysis is lacking in one key area, and that is that it assumes that since players don't look like scum together, then they can't be scum together.

You said that "I don't know how you can fiat that the rest of the town should just believe you're not scum" -- which indicates that I am somehow dictating to the town what it should or should not believe. I in fact said the opposite of what you are accusing me of fiating. I asked the town to look at my conclusions with that knowledge. Therefore, this accusation was a lie, and an easily disprovable one.

And you're arguing a case when you admit "I haven't read the thread yet"?

WHAT are you basing your arguments on?

I misread this the first time, I thought it said "I haven't reread the thread yet", but on rereading your post, it's clear that you haven't read the thread the first time.

You're making these counterarguments about Shanba and Patrick without having read the thread, three days before deadline? WHY?

[Bookitty]

The DWA is not merely a difference of assumptions. Stop trying to brush it aside, as if the logic doesnt apply. it wont work. The logic is very specific. Stop trying to say you "attacked the lie" because that's not at all what happened. You neglected the relevant part of the post in order to attempt to shift the debate to ground where you could win. Thats not a difference of assumptions, that's a methodology of how you're posting.

Since you have not read the thread, you do not know the relevant arguments I have already made in this regard about why I did not feel the debate between Shanba and Patrick was distancing. I think Glork disagrees with me on this. I'm pretty sure he's read the thread.

Since you have not read the thread, you also have no valid counterarguments about why their arguments were actually distancing, and so you are attacking based on theory of the game. While this is interesting, it has nothing to do with the specifics of the situation, and it's very hard to attack something so vague with evidence and fact. So far as I can figure out, your argument is that Patrick and Shanba are really excellent players and that we can't tell anything from their interactions. This is true in your case, because you haven't read the thread.

I really want you to make a case against me, now, because at least it would indicate that you had READ THE THREAD.

(Perhaps I'm being too subtle.)

[Bookitty]

1) The point is, regardless of what you're asking the town to do, you're asking the town to believe you are town in order for them to lynch me. In fact, you have made no arguments as to why YOU are not scum, simply that everyone is mathmatically eliminated save me. (you neglect to mention that you yourself fall into the exact same slot as I do, and therefore in order for your "mathmatical" proof of me being scum to work, anyone would have to assume that you are not scum, otherwise they are faced with a choice of you or me. )Really not a lie at all.

Most of the people playing have read the thread. They are aware of what I'm basing my arguments on, because I've been pretty consistent in this regard. I've been honest in pointing out I'm not cleared. Do you think it's usual for people to present cases in which they make an assumption that they are scum? Do you feel that it's beneficial for town for someone to make a case of this sort, when they're not scum?

Your entire argument here is ... sorry, but it's stupid. I know I'm not scum, I'm not going to pretend that I am in making my analysis. Why would anyone, of any alignment, make an analysis that depended on their being scum? It's a straw man argument and one that doesn't make sense.

2) Why is your behavior now any less likely to be indicative of alignment than say, your behavior yesterday? Have you magically lost your win condition, and are thus excused from doing scummy things? This time frame argument makes no sense, as since I've obviously read what you've been posting, and found several VERY scummy things in it, its perfectly capable of being a "case"

I invite anyone to read our posts at any point during the game and make their decision as to whether either of us is more likely scum or town. I don't fear such. So, again with this straw man argument tactic, I have no reason to disavow anything in any of my recent posts, or anything in my previous ones.

3) It is pretty obvious what I am basing my arguments on. Your behavior. Go back and read my arguments again. I have explained all my logic very thoroughly.

And I don't agree with it. And since it's based on precisely nothing, because you haven't actually read the thread, I'm not even very interested in it anymore.

4) STOP PUTTING WORDS IN MY MOUTH. I have not made any counter arguments about Shanba and Patrick. I am not making any positive claim as to whether or not they are scum buddies. I DO NOT HAVE TO. SINCE your argument is contingent on the fact that they "mathmatically" cannot be, the mere chance that they are disproves the whole thing. I have given 3 reasons why you cannot be sure that they cannot be scum buddies, and you have responded to exactly none of them, and are now attempting to attack the time at which I make my arguments, rather than the arguments themselves, since you know you can't beat them.

I disagree. If you think I'm scum (or if anyone does) then obviously my entire premises would be biased and incorrect, and none of it can be trusted. Only if you think I'm town, or likely to be, is any of it relevant, because it depends on my honestly describing my own reasoning, and my premises, and on my not being a scumpartner with anyone. These things cannot be deduced by anyone who has not read the thread. So far as I can understand it, your argument boils down to "Shanba and Patrick are teh leet, you can't catch them!" and "You didn't include in your computations that you might be scumz!" Oh, and later, "You didn't refutes my arguments!" It's nonsensical.

I was actually unaware that the deadline was that fast approaching.

Which once again shows you're paying no attention to this game except when you felt personally attacked.

Seriously. Read the thread.

[Bookitty]

I am not mad at you, TSQ. I just don't agree with you.

How could I be mad at Kermit? Honestly.

[Bookitty]

Shanba, in response to the argument about dodging it...

I presented my opinions as just that: opinions. Since TSQ has not read the thread, he can't evaluate my opinions based on evidence in the thread, and indeed he has not presented any such evidence or counterevidence. His argument that I cannot be sure that you and Patrick are not scumbuddies is true. I cannot be SURE. I can work with the evidence I have from this thread, evidence he has not yet looked at. It's my opinion that you and Patrick are not scumbuddies, but it's not proven, and I did not claim to be able to prove it.

The other part of his argument deals with the fact that in my own case I did not include a scenario in which I might be scum. I think this part of his case speaks for itself, really. Do you think it's reasonable that someone of either alignment would suggest to the town that he or she is scum? It's counter to all reasonable play for any alignment, and yet he faults me for it as if it were somehow out of the norm.

I don't feel I've dodged answering anything he's asked me. If anyone (including TSQ) can restate the three reasons very concisely, I'll gladly address them as soon as possible. But the general assertion that I can't be certain of my conclusions is a straw man, because I never claimed to be certain. And the assertion that I should include in my own case a scenario I know to be an impossibility is also rather farfetched.

[Bookitty]

Actually, the claim wasnt that you could be certain, it was that I don't think you can ever make the claim that X is NOT Y's scum partner. And since you take Shanba not being Patricks scumbuddy and Andy not being crubs as a premise, your whole case is flawed from the start.

I don't think you can ever be absolutely certain of that unless you're scum yourself, but I think there are definitely cases where it's far less likely for two people to be scum together. And it's part of the process of measuring probabilities, is it not? It is equally true that you cannot say that two people are scumbuddies for certain unless you are scum yourself, but you did not object to that in the same way.

To me it seems as though you are attacking the entire notion of connections as a useful tool in finding scum. Is that your intent?

[Bookitty]

If there were one thing that bothered me about BooKitty, it's that I don't feel she's done enough to analyze and critique Patrick, Shanba, Crub, and Andy on individual levels. She seems content to go after the "surfire" thing, to save the work for later, but that could be a coverup to avoid making a decision regarding potential scumbuddies. Her argument, from her perspective, makes sense, but it is nothing more than a process-of-elimination argument.

That said, I have one more excercise for BooKie to do. Hypothetical situation:
Suppose one of Andy/Crub were lynched today as scum, and the other were nightkilled. Suppose tomorrow, one of Shanba/Patrick were scum, and the other was nightkilled. Convince IH and myself that you are protown and that TSQ is scum.

Sorry for this being so late, but I have had consistent problems with the site going down over and over. In response to the first part of this, I'd be happy to provide quotes to support my reasoning on any of these (I think I mostly have) if you think my arguments need more evidence backing them.

As for your second request:

Looking at our posts throughout the game, I think that the difference is pretty clear. I have provided reasoning behind my decisions, and I have tried to make my logical process as transparent as possible for the town. In contrast, Sikario provided little if any content, and TSQ had not even read the thread (and announced this fact) three days before LYLO deadline. This lack of curiosity seems very incompatible with pro-town behaviour, and in fact I don't believe he's demonstrated much. He's attacked the arguments of others when they directly impacted him, but he hasn't seemed to care about helping the town nearly so much as helping himself. In contrast, I've provided content and haven't lurked or even when I was under no pressure at all.

I think a quick reread of our respective posts will make this very obvious. I've made a case against Sikario/TSQ, and I think the points are valid, but the most telling point is that TSQ apparently only mustered enough interest to defend himself when he was attacked (not even having read the thread) and I've contributed my opinions in support of the town when under no suspicion at all.

[Bookitty]

Everyone else: Be prepared to put your votes where your mouths are. There is entirely too much dilly-dallying and people simply making "I think X is scum" comments.

Fair enough. I'm most convinced TSQ is scum, second most convinced Crub is (and it's pretty close, really). Really didn't like Shanba's last posts. Really don't like that Patrick is being so quiet, either. Still, I'll go with my top suspicion for now.

vote TheStatusQuo

[Bookitty]

Ok, I'm back, and alot has been posted while I was away. Bookitty, I find it unreasonable that you're accusing me of being too quiet, given that I posted pretty much everywhere that I'd be without access for 3 days. And no, it wasn't much fun.

My apologies. I'd seen you posting elsewhere (albeit briefly) and I assumed you were back. If that's not the case, then I still feel you were quiet, but I think it's not suspicious.

The first part makes sense to me, but I don't see how Andy possibly assuming that I'm town makes us more likely to be scumbuddies. It seems like the opposite conclusion to the one you've drawn here makes sense. How did you work this out?

You're confusing two separate issues, likely because I was unclear in that post. Andy's quoted comments there make it more likely he's Shanba's scumbuddy, not yours. But he is in general far more linked to you (and if the site stays stable for more than a couple of minutes, I can give examples of that if you need them) and THAT is what the latter part referred to. I was pointing out that both things seemed pretty possible. I don't recall if I'd said before, but I had sort of been assuming that Andy wasn't linked with Shanba in any meaningful way. On a reread, I saw that and felt it was noteworthy enough to mention, because I had been wrong.

[Bookitty]

@Shanba:

Earlier you said:

Also sticking out to me is his poking of Crub without ever really attacking him. There's some of this from Crub to Andy too, though I note that Crub also lists Andy as getting town points. I'm not sure how much guts Crub has as scum, but the link is stronger Andy<-Crub than Crub<-Andy.

Individually, Andy reads somewhat scummy, Crub neutral and Patrick scummy. So I'm most convinced of Patrick, but Andy is the better link between the two. Hrm.

What changed your mind on Crub?

[Bookitty]

@Patrick:

A "reread" implies that TSQ has read the thread in the first place. As of two days ago, he stated he had not read the thread the first time. As in, at all. Which is a significant part of my reasons for voting him. This lack of curiosity and helpfulness during LYLO seems scummier to me even than what Crub has done. I was not aware that he had agreed to read the thread, but I might have missed that.

[Bookitty]

I'll never trust you again, Patrick.

-sad kitty-

[Bookitty]

I'll never trust you again, Patrick.

-sad kitty-

You could've trusted

me

....


*hurt*

I did and do trust you, Glork. And if TSQ hadn't voted Shanba (without actually having read the game) I was about to do so based on the Crub inconsistency. Since I thought TSQ was scum due to his not reading the game, that made Shanba less suspicious (and Patrick more so, but too late).

Voting Crub would have been the same as not voting Crub, which is what I did, because I was not convinced he was scum.