Mini 500 - Cult Mafia - Game Over!

[Mastermind of Sin]

This just occurred to me. Is there anyone who did *not* address the issue of the vig living or dying before we no lynched yesterday? I feel like those people are actually more likely to be scum, if the scum had information in advance. If they didn't have information, I still have no clue why they killed Oman.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Trojan, now that you quoted that for me, why did you feel, in that first quote, that the vig was likely to die?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Let's see...1 in 4, and 1 in 2, over 2 nights? That's essentially a 2 in 6 chance of occurrence during that time period, since they are separate probabilities. That's a

1/3

chance of hitting the vig over two nights. At most, maybe 66%. It's not *that* likely. It seems as if you were basing your entire analysis on the fact that something *might* go wrong. Your insistence that it would makes me think that you

knew

something would go wrong for the town. That would also explain why you came up with the "theory" that scum knew Oman was the vig when they killed him, and it would be a perfect ploy to use as scum. Let Trojan argue against no lynch, while his scumpartner goes along with it and stays under cover. Having Trojan do it is perfect for them. Because he's had a "broken scumdar" all game, no one is likely to actually give credence to his arguments, yet they are perhaps likely to dismiss them as him being himself, rather than being scum. That helps give the illusion of Trojan actually thinking there was a protown benefit behind his plans, while he could still push the scum's agenda on the offchance he was listened to. Then Trojan can say "I told you so" the next day, when everything he "prophesied" against comes true. It's almost as if

he knew it was coming...

[Mastermind of Sin]

*bangs head against wall*

3/4 chance of missing the vig on their first attempt. And if they missed, 1/2 chance of missing the vig on their second attempt. All together, 3/8 chance of missing on both attempts; 5/8 chance of hitting on either attempt. And that's if they chose randomly; the real chances would be higher. If it got down to 2 mafia, 1 vig, and 1 other protowner (which is the best we could have after no-lynch/no-vig/mislynch), I think the odds would be much greater than 50-50 of the scum hitting the vig that night.

Learn some math, MoS.

Err, what's your point? 5/8 is 62% which is less than the 66% that I suggested. Are you saying that it's actually

less

likely than what I hypothesized the worst scenario to be?

Tyhess, you can't just add the probabilities, dude. That's not how statistics works. I know my numbers aren't right either, but it's definitely not 75%. Trojan's numbers seem right. I'm still trying to fathom why she bothered to prove that I overestimated the chances of the vig dying...

[Mastermind of Sin]

Let's see...1 in 4, and 1 in 2, over 2 nights? That's essentially a 2 in 6 chance of occurrence during that time period, since they are separate probabilities. That's a 1/3 chance of hitting the vig over two nights. At most, maybe 66%. It's not *that* likely. It seems as if you were basing your entire analysis on the fact that something *might* go wrong. Your insistence that it would makes me think that you knew something would go wrong for the town. That would also explain why you came up with the "theory" that scum knew Oman was the vig when they killed him, and it would be a perfect ploy to use as scum. Let Trojan argue against no lynch, while his scumpartner goes along with it and stays under cover. Having Trojan do it is perfect for them. Because he's had a "broken scumdar" all game, no one is likely to actually give credence to his arguments, yet they are perhaps likely to dismiss them as him being himself, rather than being scum. That helps give the illusion of Trojan actually thinking there was a protown benefit behind his plans, while he could still push the scum's agenda on the offchance he was listened to. Then Trojan can say "I told you so" the next day, when everything he "prophesied" against comes true. It's almost as if he knew it was coming...

You're resorting to a fairly large amount of speculation there. That said, when I read the last sentence, I immediately thought back to that post by TH about his broken scumdar finally being repaired.

I've read the rest of this probability debate and I don't see what the point of it was. The probability of the vig dying N3 was 1/4. I thought the mistake I made with that enormous coloured probability thing of mine was that I took into account differing outcomes which skewed my results, rather than focusing on the "here and now" probabilities, so to speak. Thus, am I right in thinking that only the 1/4 figure was actually relevant to yesterday's decision?

Yes, it is speculation. I'm not trying to present it as fact or even anything with strong evidence. I'm just writing down thoughts that occurred to me as I tried to figure out what the scum were planning.

Yes, the 1/4 figure is correct, we were just arguing about the probability over two nights because Trojan had made some comments yesterday about the vig dying over the next two nights. This argument was fairly pointless, but I think we're running out of relevant things to discuss at this point.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Yea, it happens.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'm here. Mostly.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Damn. Pwayne, you are a lucky bastard. Game ended while I was on V/LA, or I would have unvoted after your vote. It really stinks of mafia trying to justify pushing the wagon into hammer territory. Vollkan had me completely fooled, though. Trojan, my no lynch plan was not because I was cult. I firmly believe that it was the best plan for the town. If we had lynched, I highly doubt that either pwayne or vollkan would have been lynched, and I'm not even sure Oman would have vigged them. I had a sinking suspicion about pwayne most of the game, but Trojan made it too easy to peg him as scum, and so even though I suspected pwayne, he was second to Trojan.

Ugh, replacing as cult was probably the best thing that could have happened for me (other than being mafia, of course), but it was still hard. I am pretty sure was not going to be lynched for the rest of the game even if we had successfully gotten pwayne, so as cult I just had to eliminate the mafia to win. I think I did a pretty good job of squelching any cult speculation by focusing all number crunching on the mafia vs town scenario and ignoring any mention of cult numbers for the most part.

It didn't help that Trojan and Tarhalindur (imo) played abysmally this game. Trojan hurt the town by continually making excuses for being wrong about the town, and then suddenly being quite sure that he was right about who was scum. That made no sense as a position town would take. If you didn't trust your instincts before, what made you so sure later? Tarhalindur was much worse than Trojan, though. He put no effort into this game, and he pretty much did everything he could to bring suspicion on himself and no contribute any useful analysis into the game. Tyhess did well replacing him, and I didn't really suspect him that much after a while. Tar's performance hurt him, though.

If I was CKD, I would have recruited vollkan night 1, but I guess that worked out for the better.

Good game everyone. Damn you scum for hurting my win statistics