Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[vollkan]

You are being too harsh. He obviously questioned your actions. This to me can be equivilant of AnbodypartoS for certain players.

Okay. That's what I needed to know.

vollkan I also find it odd that as soon as dybeck claims, you seem to have no issue with it, no questions for him and jump straight into SK mathematics.

I did say his claim was "premature and unnecessary". I figured that it explained a lot of dybeck's behaviour today (ie. suspecting those who were against Orig). I know it seems an odd way to go about things, but my first thought was to look at the consequences of things in this new possible scenario.

That's all I have, really. I don't know what else to say. I guess I could be a miller, but I don't know how likely that is in a mini game.

A vig-miller? Now you're just getting desperate...

Okay, some thoughts after reading things:

@dybeck:

I have ideas of the answers to some of these, but I want to ask them nonetheless. So some may seem obvious.
1) Why investigate Orig?
2) Why were you prepared to hammer Oman?
3) Given that our best bet is to lynch a non-Orig mafioso, why did you out yourself?
4) What was with the "shaft.ed is the SK" thing?

Now,

@Orig

: I doubt dybeck is lying, he is not so stupid as to do something like that.

If he is SK (and you are mafia), claiming cop is suicidal for him.

If he is mafia (and you are SK) claiming cop and getting you lynched will put us at 5:3. Then, mafia NK makes it 4:3. So, it is possible dybeck is doing this to put the town in a LYLO situation

Orig, vigmiller is not an option and the fact you would resort to that immediately and that you would say things like:

The more I read, it seems to me he's always been saying "Originality is scum." Period. Him being a cop would explain that blind certainty.

Make it look to me like you are scum, playing the game that all scum play after they get investigated (I've been there, I know)

Orig, I think you are scum now. There is a lot wrong with dybeck, but by and large his behaviour makes sense now. As I have said, I think you are SK based on your behaviour. There remains one option by which you might obtain a slim hope of survival, but for that option to transpire it requires that you truthfully

claim now!

. I am not going to go into specifics yet, but I am being serious.

[vollkan]

What is the "townie way to act"? I don't get what you're saying there.

There is not really a "townie way to act". It's just, what you are saying is what is always said when a scum gets caught with guilty (it's virtually what I said myself in Mini 467). I don't know what a townie would say, so I don't think it is a strong thing, but I just found the similarity with what I said in 467 rather interesting.

I should have worded it more clearly, but I think you see what I meant.

And I'm far from claiming miller, I said "I guess this is a possibility, but probably not." which led me to simply believe dybeck is fake claiming. You guys cant tell me its not something mafia would do, because it is. How are you so certain that dybeck is not lying, vollkan? What if he really did think he was -1 and had nothing to lose by claiming cop? Seems like a pretty reasonable thing to do as mafia.

Show me where I said I was certain dybeck is not lying.

There are other things I want to say, but saying them could have a significant opportunity cost at this point.

For now,
Orig and Dybeck's claims are mutually exclusive, since insanity and vigmiller are both exceedingly unlikely. In other words, one of them is scum.

Tbh, I find it very hard to imagine a mafioso doing a dybeck and pushing so adamantly for the lynch of someone, to the point of drawing themself under such heat. It just is not sensible scumplay. At most, all dybeck needed to do would be to play normally and get a 4:3:1 mislynch, then NK Orig. At worst, the mafia get a 4:2. The risk assessment just doesn't weigh up.

Dybeck's behaviour is, however, consistent with a SK who knows Orig to be lying mafia and who needs to off the mafia asap. At "L-1", he claims cop to save himself. There are problems with this though, also, but I do not feel it would be the best option to go into them just yet. Suffice to say, this option is more likely, but I still have strong problems with it.

Dybeck as cop makes sense given his behaviour. There are many problems given already, and there is one which is related to the one I mentioned above.

The various likelihoods of Orig being vig vs SK or mafia have been discussed already and there is not much to add.

I really hate having to be so cryptic.

[vollkan]

Ok, maybe not "super certain", but there you go.

I said I doubt. That's a balance of probabilities thing. It is not certain at all, and it is wrong of you to call it that.

He could have just argued so much against me, when I was in really tight rope, that it would look weird if he completely withdrew, so he was sort of trapped on his campaign against me. Later when he was at -1 he realized claiming cop was a good way to take a powerrole down with him, so to speak.

This is not true at all. In fact, dybeck would have looked much less suspicious if he had abandoned his case.

And dybeck has quite a bit to explain, such as why he investigated me, why he ignored me until AlyG pointed at me, and why he ardently persued shaft.ed at the beginning of the day while he supposedly had evidence against me.

Yes, these things need to be explored.

Then... why even bring it up? this seems like more of that "I know exactly how you should be playing and your not doing it right!" crap you seem to enjoy.

Not really. In fact, I even said there was no way you should be playing. The similarities interested me as I saw it as possibly illuminating, so I questioned you on it.

I really hate this point of the game. We argue over and over about who may or may not be telling the truth. Going on and on and on until we hit that deadline. *sighs* I guess it's time for that reread huh... Fine... Page... 2...

Yes; why ever would we need to debate who is more likely to be lying? That's just pointless

Well that just makes me want to pass out... I'll be up all night trying to make heads or tails out of that... Lets see... take the first letter of each word... take the next letter in the alphabet... rearrange according to number of letters separating each vowel.... Combine with the third and fourth word in every line... and... you get...

"Cake is yummy!"

hmm... Thats great advice... i think I will have some cake...

It was not supposed to mean anything, so stop trying to be funny about it.

seriously I will get back to you after I reread some of Origs/dybecks posts...

Lovely; I'll make cake.

[vollkan]

shaft.ed, I would appreciate if you did not comment on what Lucienne just said at this point right now, until my questions below are answered. This is related to my cryptic little thing, but I promise all shall be explained soon.

My below question is directed to Korlash and Elias:
Based on Orig's behaviour it seems most likely he is the SK, however there is still room to doubt dybeck's investigation. We know one of them is lying. Who do you want to lynch at this point?

[vollkan]

And if I can't convince everyone with my word only, please look at those numbers you have been throwing around for a while now, that say that whatever my allegiance might be, its best not to lynch me.

And someone FINALLY said it. It could have waited a little longer, but whatever.

Okay, now it's time for me to open the floodgates and go on the rabid offensive:

My current hypothesis is that originality is, in fact, the SK. I think that the odds of him being scum are certainly higher in light of this new information than they were before.

In any case, for me the matter comes down to a simple decision: do we believe originality, or do we believe dybeck? Given dybeck's breadcrumbing, and originality's scummy play at the very start of D2, I am more inclined to believe dybeck at this point.

I think that ONE of them is the right play today, for sure, and am leaning strongly towards originality at this point

Gemelli thinks Orig is the SK. Fine, so do I. BUT, Gemelli also favours lynching Originality. In fact, he sees the fact that we lynch either of them as near axiomatic.

Lynching SKOrig places us in LYLO. For someone who has been so cautious all the way through things, this is a major slip.

FoS: Gemelli

Now, let's see what else we've got:

As you and Orig (just recently) pointed out, you all had a long conversation about how lynching Orig is bad. So I am basing a lot of my thinking on that. Although I am not sure if a Guilty investigation will change anything.

He's ambivalent. He has obviously read what Orig said and has realised the move I was pulling. In that regard, the fact he leaves himself open is interesting, but not as strong as Gemelli's imo.

LesserFoS: Korlash

Now,

I think originality is the best lynch for today. Although Korlash is inherently scummier, a guilty investigation result is far more incriminating.

I want to vote for orig, but would prefer to see a votecount (and Elias' views)

Gemellish, she gives no thought to the consequences of lynching Orig but pushes his lynch. She is chronically lurking and her only content is plainly anti-town.

Also, this possibly hints at Lucienne/Korlash. The "I want to lynch X (town/SK), but Y (partner) is also scummy" thing.

FoS: Lucienne

If you expect me to share my views, I'm sure the town could use some more in depth views from you.

All I know is that lynching orig would be bad. I havent really made up my mind on Korlash, but he's digging himself into a deeper hole everytime he posts. This doesnt mean he scum necessarily though. I'll have to reread the discussion he's had with Vollkan.

This is a null tell. Elias has the right attitude, but adopted it after people brought up the numbers of the matter again.

I've got to very strongly disagree with this sentiment. In fact a cop claim works out exceedingly well no matter the alignment of dybeck.

dybeck the SK: He know's for a fact that originality is mafia because he made the other kill. Thus he is 100% certain that his "investigation" result will turn up scum. He also knows that the town already has a tracker so there is a decent probability no cop exists. As for the mafia killing him in the night, can you say doc protection for a proven guilty "investigation." Makes 2 assumptions, but beats the hell out of being lynched.

dybeck the mafioso: He know's there's a decent chance orig is coming up SK, and given his opinion of Carrotcake, I'd say he'd bet on SK over vig. Thus there is a good chance that he gets a guilty on a SK. WCS in this situation is that he has successfully taken out the town vig, and after his lynch tommorow the town is in a 3:2 LYLO. Best case scenario he has killed off the SK, survived and has the town thinking he's the cop, can you say mafia win? As above if there is a tracker, cop probabilities go down. And again beats the hell out of getting lynched and having nothing to show for it.

You are absolutely correct. I did say his behaviour was consistent with a SK, and I avoided the mafia possibility because it could have led to number discussion and risked the research regarding people who want Orig lynched.

So, my thoughts:
Orig is probably SK or vig, not mafia.
The people who are promoting Orig's lynching are probably mafia.
Dybeck is either mafia or cop.
Shaft.ed is probably town.

So, my current view of things, in descending order of certainty:

Town

0) Vollkan
1) AlyG
2) Shaft.ed

Mafia

1) Lucienne
2T) Gemelli
2T) Korlash
3) Elias

SK

1) Orig

Utterly Uncertain

1) dybeck (either cop or mafia)

So, what to do today:
I don't care what Orig is right now. I think he is SK. The fact is that lynching him is idiotic.
AlyG is pro-town confirmed virtually
shaft.ed strikes me as very pro-town
Lucienne is lurkish and now very scummy
Gemelli has been active, but just made a scumslip
Korlash is scummy, but it could be largely due to his playstyle
dybeck is either mafia or cop. He is not worth lynching because, imo, if he is mafia he will likely be NKed by the SK.
Elias is an ambiguity. Earlier on, I looked at possible scumlinks. I definitely want to see more of Elias.

Our best bet is a non-Orig mafioso. We know that. And my pick is Lucienne.

Vote: Lucienne

[vollkan]

I'm curious as to what places me third (well, fourth really) on your list of scum. You dont post anything substantial on me really, simply a reference to my disagreement on the number issue (which I never really had). After your original numbers post, I accepted that lynching Orig was a bad move. I just simply had an issue with one portion of the logic, which was relying on the mafia to kill a certain person.

I actually originally placed you in "Uncertain" but it was not quite what I meant by the "uncertain" category (which specifically applied to dybeck's situation of being certainly one thing or the other).

All I meant by including you in scum is that I do not think you are pro-town. If I had to give you a scummy percentage, it would be 55%.

Don't take it as meaning that I think you are scum, in your case, as I said it is an "ambiguity". The other thing, is that I get more links coming from you than anyone else (chiefly to Korlash and Lucienne), but that's for later on.

If I saw more of you, I would probably think you were pro-town.

Assuming we have 3 scum, there is our scumgroup. If we have only two, or on the off chance that Orig is a mafioso who got caught making the nightkill for his group, then one of those is not scum, obviously. I'm not sure how you get more scum tells off lucienne then Korlash, when lucienne has posted so little. Could you elaborate some? Surely that one post is not your entire case?

Lucienne needs to post more. She is popping in occasionally, clearly showing her awareness of the game, but she is making no substantial contributions and, moreover, her latest post is completely anti-town. No question of dybeck, no consideration of the various possibilities, no discussion of anything other than securing a lynch which is anti-town no matter what Orig is. My overall impression is scum tip-toeing around the game; trying to post on occasion without offering anything useful.

Korlash is scummy as all hell, and Gemelli's attitude to dybeck and Orig is scummy for the same reason as Lucienne's. Korlash could easily get my vote if circumstances change. Gemelli has largely seemed pro-town until this point, so I would probably be a little more hesitant.

If you want percentages (0% = obv town, 100% = obv scum)
AlyG = 0%
shaft.ed = 20%
Elias = 55%
Gemelli = 60%}
Korlash = 65%} Not tied, but the above was more based on specific reactions to lynching Orig. On overall perception, Korlash is scummier.
Lucienne = 70%
dybeck = 75%
Orig = 100%

[vollkan]

Korlash, you clearly did not read what I said, or you are making a completely distorted interpretation.

Gemelli is suspicious for his supporting Orig's lynch when we know that it is not the best option for the town.

You were ambivalently fence-sitting, despite expressing quite clearly the fact that you knew that lynching Orig was a bad idea.

As such, you clearly did not do the "exact opposite" and are reaching to make me look contradictory.

[vollkan]

Fence sitting? How is that? All I did was ask if a guilty investigation in anyway effected your numbers. I can not fathom that you would have already added that into one of your giant numerical posts. From your response I take that as a no and thus I sit with my original answer of Lucienne.

Korlash, I only gave you a slight FoS for it anyway, so you are really over-reacting.

In any event, you said:

As you and Orig (just recently) pointed out, you all had a long conversation about how lynching Orig is bad. So I am basing a lot of my thinking on that. Although I am not sure if a Guilty investigation will change anything.

You are acknowledging that lynching Orig is bad, based on my argument, but you leave open the possibility for that to change based on the effects of a guilty investigation. The point of my argument was that lynching Orig is bad irrespective of what he is. If you were actually basing your reasoning on my arguments, it would make more sense for you to have omitted that last sentence. In fact, if you had omitted that last sentence I would actually be quite pleased with you.

You need to stop over reacting to every thing i say when most of it can be cleared up with a simple yes or no response man... I mean I can see why you think I am very suspicious, but

not EVERYTHING i say is meant to be scummy or is trying to frame you in anyway.

Stop being so paranoid.

So what...only SOME of what you say is scummy and attempting to frame me?

[vollkan]

Untrue. I think that one of them is almost certainly scum, as you seem to have stated earlier. I suspect other players to varying degrees, but originality has moved far and away into the lead IMHO. Barring further evidence, he will be my vote for today.

I said:

Gemelli thinks Orig is the SK. Fine, so do I. BUT, Gemelli also favours lynching Originality. In fact, he sees the fact that we lynch either of them as near axiomatic.

If it wasn't clear, the problem is that you want the SK lynched or dybeck. Lynching SKOrig makes it LYLO. I have a serious problem with that.

At the risk of sounding dense, please explain to me why lynching a strongly-suspected SK would be a bad thing.

Sure, but I need to use numbers. I suggest everybody read these and let the reality sink in. Gemelli, your number analysis is correct, but faulty because it fails to look at the motivation of the SK being his own survival and win:

If we lynch SK Orig

Lynch SKOrig = 5:3:0
MafNK = 4:3 LYLO

If we mislynch

Mislynch = 4:3:1
Orig will act on the assumption he survives, so:
MafNK = 3:3:1
Now, if Orig NKs and hits a townie, then it will be 2:3:1 which is a mafia win.
Thus, Orig's safest bet is to not NK. A mafia NK will make it 3:2:1, which still requires all the town to vote with Orig, same as 3:3:1. In both cases, it is 4 votes to lynch.
In other words, if we mislynch, Orig's best move is to not NK.

Message for the SK (if you exist)

- In the event of a mislynch today, it will be suicidal for you to NK. If you NK, at best things will only be as good as if you had not NKed. THERE IS NO ADVANTAGE TO YOU NKING A MAFIA in the event of a mislynch, since it will be 4 votes to lynch in either case. The massive risk is that you will lose the game. You not NKing also benefits the town, obviously, since it prevents an instant mafia win, which is why I am giving you this message.

Hence, lynching Orig is as beneficial as a mislynch

Lynching a mafioso, however:

Lynch of mafia= 5:2:1
MafNK = 4:2:1
Now, Orig has more of an incentive to act here. He will likely NK and will certainly target mafia.
Orig NK = 3:2:1 or 4:1:1

Now

what can we learn from this

?

Lynching SKOrig is as good as a mislynch. I do not want to mislynch, therefore I do not want to lynch SKOrig.

Lynching a non-Orig mafioso will, at worst, put us in the situation which a mislynch puts us in at best. And at best, a non-Orig mafia lynch makes it 4:1:1.

Perhaps now, you understand the urgency and "paranoias" of my last few posts.

Gemellish, she gives no thought to the consequences of lynching Orig but pushes his lynch. She is chronically lurking and her only content is plainly anti-town.

I do not honestly believe that you think that my posts are made recklessly or without considering the potential impact on the town. The fact that you're suddenly starting to paint that picture is setting off all sorts of alarms.

Well, the bit you quoted was on Lucienne.

Understand things from my perspective Gemelli. I see you supporting something which I have already said is anti-town, and you fail to explain your rationale for it.

I never said you were reckless. I think that your support for this was potentially a major slip-up by you.

Why does my behaviour raise alarm bells? I don't see how it is suspicious that I become very concerned when people advocate things which I know to be patently anti-town.

And honestly, you are starting to overreach. "Plainly anti-town?" What, specifically, has been anti-town about the content (not frequency) of her posts? The fact that she's leaning towards lynching the player that you've just said you think is probably the SK? I'm not saying that I think that Lucienne is aligned one way or the other, but this post struck me as a random potshot.

A lurker who only chimes in to virtually parrot what other people are saying and then supports something like this strikes me as scummy very highly.

The bottom line for me is that I believe the mafia has a potential interest in keeping SK-orig alive today. Please convince me otherwise if this is just plain wrong. This is an important decision for the town, and I do not want to brush off my concerns by simply saying "we talked about it already so it's obviously a bad play."

Not true, at all.

If we mislynch today, Orig's best move is not to NK. That doesn't help the scum.

Then we have a 3:3:1 D3. That's virtually Lynch-mafia-or-lose.
If we lynch mafia = 3:2:1
Now, Orig needs to assume mafia NK town.
Thus, 2:2:1.
If Orig NKs town, mafia win.
If Orig NK's mafia, D4 is 2:1:1 with 3 to lynch
If Orig does not NK, D4 is 2:2:1 with 3 to lynch
Again, Orig's best move is NOT to NK.

D4 opens at 2:2:1 same deal
MafNK = 2:1:1
MafNK town = 1:1:1.

Orig is never of any help to mafia, and is simply an alternate townie to them in the event of a mislynch. The difference with Orig is that he makes it a draw in a 1:1 situation, whereas townie makes it a mafia win. Thus, the mafia actually want to eliminate Orig.

With more anti-mafia numbers, it may be optimal for Orig if he does NK. A mafia lynch today is such a situation. Therefore, the corollary of going after mafia today, is that we must try and be as global with our view of things as possible.

great, from now on when I am unsure of something I will not even mention it and blindly continue on. As long as you are pleased I could care less if I am clear on the issues! [/sarcasm]

You could have just asked like Gemelli did, rather than half-heartedly giving your support.

Yes! Razz
>.> <.<

That doesn't answer my question.

[vollkan]

Damnit I forgot... If Orig is so sure Dybeck is lying I still find it odd he would Switch his vote. It makes me feel he is not set on the fact Dybeck is lying and is more interested in taking the pressure off of himself and forcing it on to another. I am not saying we lynch him here, but I find it odd that someone who is %100 certain someone is fake-claiming cop would take their vote off of that person.

You are actually onto something good here.

If Orig was vig, he would know for certain that dybeck is lying scum and would be idiotic not to be pushing dybeck's lynch adamantly. Given what he is doing now, we can say with reasonable certainty that he is SK.

His actions are consistent with a SK who knows dybeck is mafia or cop, but whose priority is eliminating the mafia. His actions are utterly inconsistent with a pro-town vig.

Also what other point besides "Lurking'/little content" and "Wanting to lynch Orig" do you guys have against Lucienne? I too feel the need for her to talk more but the same can be said about Elias sometimes.

I'll do a PBPA sometime soon, but on the whole, she has largely been "tip-toeing", avoiding being a complete lurker whilst not actually adding anything. The fact she has now advocated something wholly anti-town breaks the camel's back, so to speak.

If my PBPA turns her out as being largely pro-town, I will unvote, but for now my vote remains.

[vollkan]

As promised:

PBPA of Lucienne

I am posting this as I read through.

31: Greeting
33: Doesn’t like Orig and thinks Oman is scummy for his bandwagoning
37: Clarifying something
68: Votes Oman for opportunism and OMGUS on shaft.ed. Oman was not OMGUSing and he points this out to her.
70: More banter with Oman.
97: Backtracks when realises was wrong about Oman putting Orig at L-2, by “nonetheless” attacking Oman’s lack of reasoning.
98: Asks about spelling
135: Questions why Orig feels “pressured into voting” for VH
137: Comments on BS’s ‘edit sig’
187: FoSes Orig for voting VH because he was “pressured” to join largest wagon
203: Orig explains things, agrees with Carrot on AlyG being suspect
204: Votes BS for having done nothing “except coast and say basically nothing”. Ironic.
209: Shaft.ed has noted the irony and Lucienne responds by selecting posts where she scumhunts. Then she puts it back to BS with “Dr. B has done no scum-hunting. That is scummy. Dr. B has not been scum-hunting for the entire game. That is scummy.”
231: Draws attention to BS having claimed power role
270: Unvotes BS for power role claiming and criticises those still on his wagon. Questions BS, criticises Ryan’s suggestion that we let BS live and “then take” (quoting Ryan) care of him D2. Says AlyG is scummy for planning the lynches of 2 days. Questions Orig again.
315: Questioning of Ryan and AlyG. Thinks Oman is town, antisystemically based on his attacks on Ryan. I find the logic of “This person is attacking the person I think is scummy, therefore they are now town” to be rather poor.
372: Quick single sentences questioning things.
417: More questioning of the above nature. Interestingly, attacks a BS lurking post which she already attacked previously. Notable for later, criticises Oman suggesting other power roles.
420: “It's like a cop with a guilty yet voting somewhere else.” says the person now voting Orig. Doesn’t like dybeck and thinks AlyG is lying.
485: will be away due to emergency
572: Now believes AlyG and thinks Orig is possibly lying. Suggests Elias/dybeck mafia. Dislikes Oman’s vote for Elias.
684: nothing
685: opposes a vigging because it could be fatal (I assume you mean “loss-causing”). Attacks dybeck for

not suggesting other power roles

. Comments on Gem defending dybeck. Thinks Elias is more lurkish than scummy. Responds to comments she is not posting by saying her scumdar is clear. Ironically, she then agrees with shaft.ed that Oman has been all over the place, which is pretty much was she has done. She has spread everywhere, and spread very thinly.
817: Nothing really. Minor questions for clarification
820: More suspicion of Oman and agrees with my linking dybeck to Gem. Her vigging list is 1. No Killl; 2. Oman; 3. Dybeck; 4. Elias (though she says she doesn’t want Elias killed).
Her scumdar:

Oman (far too much flip-flopping and bandwagonning which has accentuated his early scummy Day 1 behaviour).

Dybeck (his stance regarding originality was far too exaggerated and advocating to lynch him is scummy.)

Gemelli (solid enough, only notable thing is connections with dybeck. If dybeck turned up scum, I would be looking at Gemelli.)

Elias (really, really needs to post.)

Vollkan (I don't see much to fault at this point, although I find that his use of maths is off-putting for me at least. Sometimes scum hide from discussion by talking theory, but I'm happy to see that Vollkan is doing both.)

Originality (Although less sure than about his claim than AlyG's, I am still completely against lynching him.)

AlyG (I believe his claim.)

Shaft.ed (similarly, I don't have any major doubts about him at this point.)

Again, Gem is the scummy one, but Elias is the one on the list.

842: Criticises Orig’s listing, then comments she would suspect Gem much more if dybeck was scum. She agrees with me and shaft.ed
876: Wants dybeck or Oman to hang today
936: Agrees with me, more attacking on dybeck and wants a metagame on Oman
985: Declares she will likely be voting Oman because of him just wagoning on dybeck
986: Reinforces this
1072: Prods self
1131: Promises content
1152: Promises content
1172: Doesn’t like Korlash’s attacks on me or shaft.ed.
1217:

I think originality is the best lynch for today. Although Korlash is inherently scummier, a guilty investigation result is far more incriminating.

I want to vote for orig, but would prefer to see a votecount (and Elias' views)

Right.

Unvote

She is lurkish and there are a few problems, but by and large there is nothing overly damning, apart from her last post. Despite her lack of content, I largely agree with what she says and her scumdar seems well-tuned.

[vollkan]

I understand that perspective. My reply is that a mislynch also leaves us in LYLO. And as you've just demonstrated with your confident vote on Luc yesterday, followed by an unvote today, the town's level of confidence in a consensus mafia target is currently quite low.

Yes, but at least by lynching elsewhere, we run a good chance of getting into a better situation.

Also, in order to maximise our benefit, we need to give Orig as much information as possible regarding the potential scum. If we lynch mafia today, Orig will very likely NK and, as such, we need him to hit mafia.

As you yourself mentioned days ago, SKorig has already effectively lost. I struggle to think of a scenario where he can eke out a victory regardless of what he does tonight. So I think it is a big, big mistake for us to make any assumptions on how he will act. He is in my opinion a huge wild card that can play spoiler for either side as he sees fit.

I agree. However, he can still win. If he is playing this game seriously, he will still work to maximise his own chances.

I am not excited about sending us to LYLO. I would be a lot LESS excited about having us in LYLO and facing two NKs on N3. Please, let's think this through beyond the immediate N2/D3 impact -- we will eventually have to lynch the SK in order to win. Every night he lives, we risk reducing the town's plurality advantage.

Okay,
Maflynch today = 5:2:1
MafNK = 4:2:1
----Orig NK town = 3:2:1. If we lynch Orig here, loss
----Orig no NK = 4:2:1. If we lynch Orig here, 3:2 LYLO
----Orig NK mafia = 4:1:1. If we lynch Orig here, 3:1 LYLO

The 3:2:1 situation I covered earlier.

FTR, the 3:2:1 scenario:
At 3:2:1,
Mislynch D3 = 2:2:1
MafNK of town = 1:2:1 (P=2/3)
--SK NK of town = 0:2:1 LOSS (P=1/2) (Total P = 0.33)
--SK NK of mafia = 1:1:1 YUCK (P=1/2) (Total P = 0.33)
MafNK of SK = 2:2:0 (P=1/3)
--SK NK of town = 1:2:0 LOSS (P=1/2) (Total P = 0.166)
--SK NK of mafia = 2:1 LYLO (P=1/2) (Total P = 0.166)

Maflynch D3 = 3:1:1
MafNK of town = 2:1:1 (P=3/4)
--SK NK of town = 1:1:1 YUCK (P=3/4) (Total P = 0.5625)
--SK NK of mafia = 2:0:1 LYLO (P=1/4) (Total P = 0.1875)
MafNK of SK = 3:1:0 (P=1/4)
--SK NK of town = 2:1:0 LYLO (P=3/4) (Total P = 0.1875)
--SK NK of mafia = 3:0:0 WIN (P=1/4) (Total P = 0.0625)

SKLynch D3 = 3:2:0
MafNK of town = 2:2 LOSS (P=1)

I will say this again, since you seem to have missed it the first time: if I thought we had a strong lead on a mafia player at this time, I would agree that lynching that player makes more sense. But IMHO we don't.

In which case, we put ourselves in LYLO for no good reason. At absolute worst, a mislynch makes things 3:3:1, which is lynch-mafia-or-lose.

MafLynch = 3:2:1
MafNK town = 2:2:1
Orig cannot NK because doing so and missing would trigger a mafia win by making it 1:2:1, no lynch, then maf NKs Orig.
MafLynch in 2:2:1 = 2:1:1.
MafNK town = 1:1:1.
If Orig NKs town, he draws it, if OrigNKs scum, he wins.

A mislynch today will be costly, but so will a lynch of Orig.

The other thing raising flags for me is that you have been increasingly making posts that you retract shortly afterwards. You stated yesterday (again, using definitive terms) that Luc's posts are plainly anti-town. Today, you withdraw that statement and your vote. THAT is behavior that strikes me as anti-town. We are close to a deadline, and consensus is needed. Taking what seem to me to be scattergun, poorly-founded potshots like this does NOTHING to help the town; it diminishes our focus and distracts from other topics of discussion.

I don't see how it is anti-town. She posts something markedly anti-town. I vote her. Then I go back and toothcomb things and decide she is not vote-worthy. There is nothing harmful in that.

AlyG, Lucienne & ETT: I would very much appreciate a more thorough description of your views of recent events. Specifically the validity of dybeck and originality's claims and who would be your prefered lynch at this point.

QFT, There is plenty to comment on and your inaction is unhelpful.

Shaft.ed, I've tried banging on about originality in every post. It didn't work.

I'm pretty sure we'll lynch originality now, and if we don't, it'll be pretty clear who's responsible for the mislynch.

I've only had one investigation, so the rest of the scum are anybody's guess.

I'm pretty happy with AlyG and Elias, and I'm fairly happy with Gemelli as it goes. I think the scum are some combination of the rest of you. Don't know yet, but I'll find out. Why? Are you worried?

I am REALLY, REALLY not liking dybeck right now. Let's see, he is saying the scum are among:
vollkan
shaft.ed
Lucienne
Orig
Korlash

He doesn't actually bother discussing who is mafia or SK. I know it isn't me and I am pretty sure it isn't shaft.ed. Orig is most likely the SK, which makes the mafia:

Lucienne, Korlash and...nobody. Lucienne has been against Oman rather strongly, same with shaft.ed actually.

Right then. dybeck's post makes no sense to me. Therefore, I invoke the scenario of dybeck being mafia. Dybeck has been crusading against shaft.ed and myself and Orig. Dybeck has links to Gemelli.

I think the mafia in that situation are most likely- dybeck/Gemelli/Elias or dybeck/Gemelli/Korlash

I want to throw out a question:- Who here believes dybeck is the cop? A simple yes or no will suffice.

[vollkan]

Why is Originality "probably the SK"?

I think Originality is mafia with Korlash and probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK.

I've said this (or a very similar permutation) already in this thread.

Where's the evidence for Orig being "probably the SK"? What have I missed?

If this is the case, dybeck, then it still makes no sense to lynch Orig, because Lucienne will certainly NK him.

Evidence for Orig being SK:
1) The fact he sought to distance

himself

from the NK is important. He felt personally responsible, something mafia don't do.
2) The fact he just now jumped on Lucienne after I voted shows that he is trying desperately to lynch mafia by following my scumdar.

Oh, and why Lucienne?

are you trying to use this as evidence of distancing, reasons why we are probably not partners, or just stating the facts? Don't want to jump to conclusions right now you know. (a... jump to conclusions mat... *laughs*)

No. I was simply looking at the scenario that unfolds if certain educated assumptions are made.

Other then that

I have no opinion on Dybeck's claim. Yet... that I want to voice.

I'm more interested in Lucienne and Elias then him and Orig. At least for now.

You're doing my cryptic thing, I see. The problem here, though, is that I cannot really see any reason why your opinion on dybeck's claim is something which has an advantage being kept under wraps.

When I did not talk about the SK kill being disadvantageous, it was for the specific reason of seeing who would support a SK kill without thinking clearly.

I find your ambiguity here rather disturbing.

Anyway,

People's Opinion of dybeck

Vollkan

- Likely mafia

Korlash

- Not telling
<additional persons pending>

@dybeck: Lynching Orig is bad if he is SK and stupid if he is mafia. Therefore, I cannot understand why you would bother claiming. All you have done, if you are cop, is needlessly out yourself.

[vollkan]

PBPA of Elias

23: Votes Orig to -3 for suggesting that lurkers be lynched.
49: Orig is more of a newbie tell. Sends vote to Oman.
52: Frustration at Oman's small white text
58: Responds to Oman's accusation that ETT is reaching by saying Oman's weirdness is the best tell so far
59: Clarifies last post
80: Queries whether shaft.ed is accusing him of quicklynch trapping
90: Says premature claiming is anti-town but not necessarily scumtell. This is defending BS (Gemelli)
92: Affirms 90
118: FoSes BS
119: Will be away
121: Says that BS cannot do much more harm than he already has, and can therefore be no more of a liability. Again defending BS
124: Is considering wagoning on VH
194: Promises content
236: FoSes dybeck for role-fishing BS
238: Affirms 236
240: Affirms 240
243: Angry at Oman for role-fishing BS
246: Rolefishing is

more suspicious than

BS. Again, I see a "more suspicious than" as a buddy-tell.
325: Angry at Ryan for his PM quoting
369: promises content
519: Promises conent
550: Explains his lurking
975: Is willing to return
978: Needs streeflo's approval
988: A big post: Believes AlyG and thinks Orig is SK. Interesting, Orig does not explain why Orig cannot be mafia.
989: Apologises for losing most of his post
991: Gemelli is using wifom and Elias disagrees with some of his points. A strange post really, since it doesn't add anything other than critique of Gemelli.
994: Suggests I am wrong about it being good not to NK Orig because "what if the

mafia

doesn't kill him". Again, assuming SK. Also asks for me to give my case on dybeck and shaft.ed to give his case on Oman.
997: Regarding his rejoining.
1009: Attacking Orig
1010: Promises content
1021: Analyses my case on dybeck. In hindsight, it's interesting that he thought most of what I had raised on dybeck suggested dybeck was scummy or weird, but he doesn't think the case holds significant weight. This post, at the time, persuaded me that I was being too harsh on dybeck.
1023: Asks if I need clarification
1024: ooc
1029: just on the "September 1" deadline.
1035: wifoms about replacement, criticises my attack on Oman. He would "probably be willing to vote dybeck" but would "rather lynch orig who i think is certain scum".
1037: promises content
1059: backs down on Orig lynch after my numbers
1069: points out typo
1078: again criticises letting vig/SKOrig live because of "what if the mafia doesn't kill him"
1081: argues the mafia will want SK/VigOrig to NK
1085: Not much. Accuses me of getting pissed off because I got argumentative over Elias continuing to suggest that Orig's lynch might be helpful
1112: Comments on the stupid vanilla ice-cream thing
1156: Comments on my scum hunting style
1225: Suggests to Lucienne that he will not contribute until she does. Also, he says "I know is that lynching orig would be bad." He never explained where his position changed on this matter. I mean, he did retract his support, but he did keep arguing about my logic and never entirely withdrew.
1227: Looks at my scumlists. Suggests that he is unsure of why I would suspect Lucienne when Korlash has given more tells.
1250: joke post
1255: just above

It was a joke, making fun of the post before mine.

My opinion on the dybeck claim? I dunno yet. From one perspective, Dybeck as doc doesnt want to claim early because there is already incriminating evidence against orig, and claiming isnt necessary. Therefore the late claim isnt so outlandish.
On the other hand, Dybeck as mafia can make a pretty good bet that Orig is sk, (or maybe theyre both mafia, to rule nothing out) and the claim gives him reason for a heavy push as well as credibility tomorrow. Even if Orig turns out to be vig, Dy can claim that he might be paranoid or insane cop. So it's up in the air.

I dont see any reason to seriously disbelieve his claim right now, so for now its a tentative yes.

I disagree with this, since the reason you give for dybeck being cop is hardly particularly strong. You might equally say that he was mafia who thought he could score an Orig lynch early on, but then saw the tides turning and claimed cop.

My thoughts overall

- Defends BS early on as well as doing a "more scummy than", both of which ring bells for me as buddy tells. Other than that, his critique of my case on dybeck was interesting. At the time I was wavering on dybeck myself, and dybeck's conclusions kind of threw me off. Looking back at his critique, he really found quite a bit of it rather scummy, but his conclusion was very ambivalent. Additionally, his attitude towards lynching Orig in light of my proof it was bad is interesting. He was for the lynch, then withdrew, then criticised my logic, then I argued back. Then the argument dies and he comes back saying he "knows" it will be bad.

If Elias is scum, I peg Gemelli as his most likely partner, followed by dybeck.

[vollkan]

I'm still not convinced that our chances are markedly better by taking our chances with a mislynch, but it is late, I am tired, and I am new. If there is general agreement -- meaning a quorum of players aside from vollkan and originality who agree that lynching originality is a bad play, bearing in mind what the two of us have posted -- then I will drop the issue. I would greatly appreciate it if the rest of you could post your opinion on this: Is lynching Originality actually a bad play for today? I am on the verge of dropping the matter altogether.

I've shown this already with the numbers. It puts us in LYLO. At worst, if the mafia keep Orig alive, we are in LYLO also. The mafia would be stupid to keep Orig alive. I am going to say it again:

Lynching Orig is BAD!

No no no. You did not post that she posted "something" that was anti-town. You posted "her only content is plainly anti-town." Exactly the type of charged, overstated language that has me suspecting you at this point. If you would stick to specifics, rather than making sweeping statements of opinion as if they were facts, you and I would not be having this conversation. I do not take issue with your arguments and opinions: I take issue with how you have been expressing them. Okay?

Fine. Appreciate that I am argumentative and take strong positions. In the case of Lucienne, what I meant by "her only content is plainly anti-town" was this:

"Lucienne's only real content of late (content being something unique that makes a statement as to her own actual stance) is her latest post which is plainly anti-town."

I do. If I have been snowed by Dybeck, I will surely pay for it. But the fact of the matter is that I suspected he might have this role weeks ago, based on his posts, and he has claimed it. I do not agree with much of what he's posted, and I will be the first to agree that his posts have been confrontational and single-minded. But I find the content (if not the tone) of his posts consistent with what I'd expect from a cop who had gotten a guilty result.

Or with a mafia who knows that he has found their biggest threat.

FWIW, I currently believe that the mafiia are three of the following players:

Lucienne
Elias
Korlash
Dybeck
Vollkan

I'm going to try to get in some PBPAs of those players this week. Wish me luck as I prepare for Vollkan's

Interesting. My list is the same as yours but with your name substituted for mine.

And good luck, my word you'll need it

[vollkan]

As for my scum list... Your all on it. Plain and simple... No matter how "pro-town" you are I have no proof of your affiliation and so I will not be stupid and not consider you possible scum. A few of you are "less likely" and a few are "more likely" but to have a list with anyone you are not %100 certain is town on it seems kinda dumb... Again I will not pretend to know how you should or are playing so... to each his own...

The best thing you can do right now if you are pro-town is to tell us where your suspicions most lie. Use the sort of % listing thing that I do, if that helps. One sentence per person in explanation will suffice.

People's Opinion of dybeck

Vollkan

- Likely mafia.

Korlash

-

Not telling

Undecided

Elias

- Tentative yes

Gemelli

- Yes. 60% cop, 40% mafia.
<additional persons pending>

[vollkan]

1

Of course it isn't a bad play.

2

There are just too many scum in this game. Don't be led by them.

3

There are 4 scum to only 5 town.

4

And it looks like the scum are the most vocal.

5

Obviously we lynch confirmed scum.

Yet another well-reasoned and thought-out post from our "cop"

1) It is a bad play. Stop blindly denying my arguments. If you think I am wrong, prove it. Nobody has yet provided any numerical justification for lynching the SK, whilst I have been hammering away for pages now at just how stupid such an action is (to say nothing of lynching the possibility of a mafOrig).

2) You're appealing to fear and danger here, despite being totally ignorant of the numbers. I really dislike the "don't be led by them", because all it really means is "listen to me"

3) Your first bit of numerical analysis is to count how many scum there are. I don't know whether to laugh or cry...

4) A major, unsubstantiated assertion here. "The scum are the most vocal"? Well, I assume you are including me in that. I'd love to know who else is scummy on the basis of activity.

5) "Lynch confirmed scum..." and either put ourselves in LYLO (if Orig = SK) or waste our lynch on someone who will be NKed anyway and then expose ourselves to the risk of a random NK (if Orig = mafia).

A pro-town cop should simply NOT be talking like this.

HoS: dybeck

Judging by the views expressed so far, it's beginning to look like things are sliding in favour of dybeck, and there seems to be a growing movement to lynch Orig. I've argued my case and I haven't been rebutted; yet people are still ignoring me.

At the moment, I am most awaiting content from AlyG. AlyG, please give me clear answers to the following:
1) Do you believe dybeck's claim?
2) Do you believe lynching Orig today is the right move?
3) Who do you think the scum are

[vollkan]

No offense here Vollkan, but if Dybeck is really the cop I think he should more or less be telling you to go F*** your numbers. I mean if I was the cop I would push for a guilty investigation lynch all day until either I am the one dead or my target is. And anyone defending my target would obviously get flagged as potential scum buddies.

If I was the cop, I would think and realise that there is no advantage in me claiming, since Orig is either not worth killing (if he is mafia) or is bad to kill (if he is SK). Things would be very different if Orig had not been confirmed killer previously, of course. However, dybeck's claim has given no reason to lynch Orig.

I am aware that if Orig is mafia, my own position is compromised severely, but that's an unlikely situation in contrast to the very imminent problems I see right now.

Granted, I have seen your numbers, and I fully understand your logic. But I think counting on your fingers and toes pales in comparison to actual hard evidence. And no matter how much you try to predict the odds of how people act, 9 times out of 10 your wrong. I have already seen this proved this game, mostly with your so called "traps" against me.

But my numbers have trumped everything. I am the one agreeing that Orig is most likely the SK; I don't dispute that. All the "evidence" is saying is that Orig is probably the SK. My numbers build upon that to point out that lynching him is not in our best interests.

As for my traps, you are assuming that their purpose was to "catch" rather than to research. I got plenty of research from them. A catch would be a bonus.

To be honest here, the more you talk about it, the less likely I am thinking he would be NKed if he were mafia. The only person I see NKing him would be a Vig. However, I would think the SK may leave him alive to try and make him a scapegoat tomorrow. Honestly, if the entire town kept confirming the fact that player X is going to be NKed anyways, why Nk him? It just sounds so... Well... stupid...

Not true at all. The SK's biggest enemies right now are the mafia. The SK acts in self interest. Therefore, the SK will kill mafOrig.

Of course, I believe Orig to be the SK, but this is just what happens if he is mafia.

But this point really does not matter, because if he survives the night

he gets lynched tomorrow right?

so either way he dies... However, if he is not the SK/Vig then thats an additional two more deaths we have to worry about. I have been weighing the possibility of both Sk and Vig in my mind. I mean we are on a plain that has a killer on board. That of course would point to an Sk right there. Yet in many plain/hijacking situations there is usually someone who fights back, or in this case a vig. I could honestly see them both because if Orig is the Scum, then that woudl mean Vig killed whats his name... spurgistan. And I will admit when I did my reread he was another of my likely scum people. So I have always been harboring the fact that perhaps Orig is not the supposed Vig/Sk.

Who said he gets lynched tomorrow?

We may well have a vig (who chose not to NK yesterday), but we cannot act on such speculation.

We need to assume that we have two scumgroups: 3-person mafia and SK (Orig) so that we are accommodating for the worst possible scenario.

As for your scumdar, well done. That is exactly what I want to see.

~ either Vig or Sk, already killed a towny, has guilty investigation. All signs point to bad for town in some way. Vollkan has made good points about keeping him alive, but there is always a possibility those two are the scum buddies and would mean it would be bad to listen to Vollkan. Either way I do not want to lynch him now. Especially without Elias's or Lucienne's input.

Does this mean that you oppose lynching SK-Orig? By the sounds of it, your sole concern is the prospect of me being scum with Orig.

4) Dybeck- %45
~Do not fully believe his claim because of a few things, did not immediately switch vote after claiming guilty investigation, seemed to waver a bit from his original target.

But he seems more or less sticking with his "lynch Orig" policy now even with Vollkan repeatedly attacking him for it.

I can see both sides ATM but am finding it hard to agree with Dybeck mostly because he does not have that "posting flair" Vollkan does.

The bolded bit seems to be your main point in dybeck's "favour". Consider, though, that such an attitude is just as likely to be exhibited by a mafia trying to get rid of the SK and put town in LYLO as it is a pro-town cop. Indeed, given the numbers, I think that it is actually far more scummy than it is pro-town.

5)AlyG-About %30
5)Gem-About %30
~These two just haven't really set any alarms off in my head. Apparently I missed something about Gem somewhere but I keep seeing his name under "likely scum" with like me or dybeck as his partner or something... Crazy... I like the way Gem posts things personally. And much like Vollkan, I can see his side 9 times out of 10.

Use of the word "crazy" is interesting, because it is not "crazy". In fact, I think it is a legitimate suggestion.

[vollkan]

shaft.ed, I agree completely with your first post querying dybeck's claim.

We know that dybeck and originality's claims are mutually exclusive, thus at least one of them has to be scum, and there is a possibility that they both are. Thus lynching one of them has greater than 50% odds of hitting scum. Anyone else in the town is much lower than this and thus should not be considered.

Also even if we hit SK putting us in LyLo this is better than hitting town and being in 3:2:1 if we have a nonOrig SK.

On the numbers, 3:2:1 is not significantly worse than 4:3; it is still LYLO. The only difference is that it is possible for a mafia lynch to result in a 1:1:1 wcs.

I also posit that lynching dybeck has the possibility of providing more information of originality's alignment than lynching origanilty has on dybeck's alignment. If we lynch dybeck he comes up SK, we know orig is mafia and can then autolynch tommorow. If he comes up mafia then we know orig is either vig or SK. If he comes up town (which I doubt given his horrible cop claim) then we know orig is scum of some sort. If orig comes up mafia or SK we still don't know if dybeck is a cop becuase he could easily be faking the investigation given the info AlyG provided. If orig comes up vig we know that dybeck is either mafia or SK faking cop.

This earns a big QFT.

Well, your post has certainly changed my mind on the Dybeck claim. Theres a lot of inconsistency there, and the motivation for scum to fake claim cop there is certainly plentiful. So, I'd put my opinion on the Dybeck claim as a tentative no, as opposed to the tentative yes that was there before. As to the Orig claim, Ive already told the town what I think of his claim, in fact, that was my first post upon reentering the game, debunking his claim. I'm fairly certain that Orig is our SK.

As for favored lynch? Orig seems like a bad choice, as Vollkan has pointed out multiple times. I dont believe Shafted or Vollkan are scum. Lucienne doesnt post enough to tell. Korlash and Gemelli I'm undecided on, though I dont like Korlashs play thus far. So I think that leaves me with Dybeck, who I've thought was slightly scummy throughout the game. Combined with the likelihood of his claim being false, he is my preferred lynch at this point.

You say you don't like Korlash, what are your thoughts on Gemelli?

Vote: dybeck

[vollkan]

So: HoS: Vollkan I am curious to hear your (and others') response to this summary, as well as the more detailed PBPA itself. At this point, you have firmly entered my top-3 suspect list.

Okay, I shall address this extensive post by you now:

#1: Vollkan has been going after Dybeck like he was made of ham through all of D2. This is not in itself surprising given Dybeck's attitude. What is notable after a complete reread is that the grounds for his suspicion have shifted dramatically, not just from the start of D2 to now, but in some cases from post to post. Examples: in posts 439 and 497, he suspects Dybeck of being mafia. In 544, he starts suspecting that Dybeck is the SK. In 598, he describes Dybeck as "quite pro-town." But just a few posts later, in 608, he's back to arguing that Dybeck is probably mafia, a line he continues until 1193, when he's back to accusing Dybeck of being the SK. In 1208, he states that he believes Dybeck's cop claim, that his claim doesn't make sense as a mafioso, but that SK is likely. In 1226 he's back to accusing Dybeck of being mafia.

So the notable thing is that my opinion changed?

Let's see.

If Orig is scum, then we can reasonably infer we have no vig (no counters). Therefore, Orig will very likely be NKed by the other scum faction. (** see "A" below)

**A - For this reason, I think it very likely that scum may be pushing Orig's lynch (ie. Dybeck). They know he is either vig or their enemy faction.

My reasoning there was on the assumption that Orig was either SK or Vig, so for dybeck to be mafia is logical.

However, there is one fact which kind of defeats the whole SK theory: Orig claimed VIG.

If Orig is SK, why the hell would he claim the one pro-town role which we can be almost certain that the mafia will prioritise over all others.

I know that if I were a SK in Orig's position, I would have claimed weak doc or RB or something, NOT Vig.

Hence, my instinct is telling me that the people pushing Orig's lynch are mafia trying to score a vig or SK lynch.

Again, I am reasoning that the people pushing Orig are mafia.

The fact that Orig is supporting Dybeck's lynch is a little perturbing to me. If Dybeck is SK, then his death is going to mean the end of Orig.

It is misrepresentation of Gemelli to say that here I am arguing dybeck is SK. I was merely pointing out that if dybeck shows up SK, Orig will be confirmed scum.

The description of dybeck as "quite pro-town" was in response to that spate of good reasoning he had, until I realised the whole thing was flawed.

I just don't think we should be pegging Dybeck as a townie purely because he is hunting a SK.

I don't see why this is a problem. I thought about things more and reasoned that dybeck was not necessarily pro-town for going after SK (something that has become even more apparent given the numbers)

Something else to consider:
The possibility that dybeck is the SK. SKdybeck knows that Orig is mafia and wants him gone. SKdybeck thought he was at L-1, panicked and claimed cop, using Orig's guilty lynch as hopeful proof of him being cop.

I was NOT saying dybeck is the SK; I raised it as a possibility to remember, as any decent player would.

In 1208 I said dybeck's behaviour was consistent with cop, but I gave him questions for the obvious problems with it. Hence, I did not revert to a stance that dybeck was mafia.

Rarely do we see an acknowledgement that the line of attack is changing from Vollkan. He seems to have made up his mind very early in the game that Dybeck is scum, and has simply been trying to figure out a way to craft a resonating argument to support that premise.

In most of the examples you gave, I was merely looking at possibilities. In the sole example where my view actually shifted (dybeck being pro-town) I admitted that "I was wrong".

In other words, this point is complete rot.

Review post 974, in which Vollkan claims that Dybeck is scummy for dropping his case against Originality, despite being "100% convinced" of orig's scumminess. Then look at posts 1008 -- where Vollkan posts that Dybeck had "no need" to abandon the lynch-originality theme, and that he finds that change in heart suspicious -- and 1214, in which Vollkan says that Dybeck would have been LESS suspicious if he had abandoned the case against originality earlier. Vollkan has created a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't situation; no matter what course of action Dybeck chooses here, Vollkan will attack him for it. You could draw a conclusion from this that Vollkan has made up his mind that Dybeck should be lynched, and is opportunistically using whatever facts happen to be at hand to advance that agenda.

Now you are just misconstruing what I have been saying.

If dybeck was 100% convinced of Orig being "scum", he should NOT have dropped his pursuit so arbitrarily. What he should have done is admit he was wrong in full and with reasoning.

There is a difference between simply saying "Righto. Let's lynch Oman instead" to "I have reviewed your arguments and you make a good case against lynching Orig"

It is not a Catch 22. I would have been perfectly happy if dybeck had abandoned his case, rather than arbitrarily flipping.

My verdict on #1

- Complete rot and misrepresentation.

Post 462, Vollkan suggests that AlyG should track originality. 491, shaft.ed says that he doesn't want the town to guide AlyG in any way. 492, vollkan reverses his earlier suggestion and agrees with shaft.ed.

Actually, in 462 I agreed with Oman's suggestion that dybeck be tracked, not Orig. In 492, I accepted shaft.ed was right, because I realised that ordering the tracking would be pointless. So yes, I did change my mind. My initial suggestion was stupid and I don't defend it.

Post 512, Vollkan tells Originality that he should kill, but be careful. 515, shaft.ed posts that he'd prefer a no kill. 517, Vollkan says "You're right. Don't kill tonight Orig."

We've been over my "support" for Orig killing already. I never wanted him to kill, but I wanted him to be a threat. The point was that, after the numbers materialised, it became patently obvious that the risk outweighed any potential benefit of uncertainty

Post 598, Vollkan says that "CarrotCake was clearly using very good logic and posting to a great extent. Thus, she was a threat to the scum. By NKing her, there is the added advantage of throwing suspicion onto AlyG. It is VERY plausible that scum would NK carrot." Post 617, shaft.ed posts a summary of CC's posts, showing that she was hardly a hugely obvious townie. Post 638, Vollkan

says that he thought that CC wasn't really townie all along,

but didn't want to say anything in order to get more info on the players supporting originality's lynch.

That's a lie. My exact words were:

shaft.ed, reading over these past few pages, I really agree with you. The CarrotCake post, in particular, makes a very good point and one which I noticed some time ago. I wanted to see how things played out given that the anti-Orig lobby was relying on it so crucially. My reasons for doing so will become clear below.

I was pretty clear that I had "noticed" it. It was not always my view. Given CC's very big attacking post, I was initially convinced she was uber-town, but it became clearer to me after I read that she was not. Nonetheless, I said nothing to see how much longer the anti-Origs, mainly dybeck, would keep it up.

Post 680, Vollkan says that "we haven't instructed Orig not to kill. Orig is to do as Orig sees fit, but with the utmost caution." And to AlyG: "Doc should probably protect either you or Orig, let me think on that one." 682-683, shaft.ed states his preference for giving orig a consensus list to work with rather than a blank slate, and FoS's vollkan for suggesting doc protection for orig. 705, Vollkan responds to that with "I said I was not convinced and I needed to think. I didn't mean that I considered Orig an equal option to AlyG at all. I just meant that I was going to look at both options, rather than immediately ruling it out without doing a proper analysis. I can't think of any reason to protect Orig, after all I've been pushing hard on not lynching Orig for the crossfire thing as well."

Yes? I was unsure and wanted to make certain that protecting AlyG was the best move.

751-755: Vollkan states that "I would not support a blanket limiting of Orig to the consensus." 778, shaft.ed states his preference from having orig work off a list, and indicates that he could see dybeck's posts reflecting the perspective of an angry townie. 779, Vollkan agrees to this, agrees that shaft.ed's dybeck-townie suspicions are valid, and states that "Oman looks worse" at this point.

Where is the "agreement" you refer to? I said shaft.ed's suspicions were valid and that Oman looked worse. Oman did look worse. As for the "blanket limiting", I have already said that I was trying to codedly tell Orig not to NK in such a way as to ensure full uncertainty.

Verdict on #2

- I and been influenced by shaft.ed's arguments at a number of points and I make no apology for that. What Gemelli is claiming, though, is complete exaggeration, as I have shown.

In post 675, Vollkan claims to have "refuted" Dybeck's suspicion that Originality lied in his initial role claim. As we now know, Vollkan is now leading the "orig is 100% scum and is most likely the SK" train, despite apparently having proved that this wasn't possible many pages ago.

Sorry? Where did I say Orig was 100% confirmed scum. In my most recent post I said:

We need to assume that we have two scumgroups: 3-person mafia and SK (Orig) so that we are accommodating for the worst possible scenario.

The point is, dybeck's arguments were poor. Based on Orig's actions over the course of today, most recently his jumping on Lucienne after my PBPA, he is looking like a very likely SK and we need to assume so accordingly.

Vollkan first advocates the "anyone who wants to lynch originality today is probably scum" theory in post 487. This despite the fact that he had voted for an orig lynch just 20 posts or so ago in post 462. This is a dramatic reversal of opinion. At first, Vollkan has argued that an Orig lynch is obviously bad because there is such a strong chance that orig is a vig. In post 457, he argues that originality is almost definitely NOT the SK, and it's in the town's best interest to lynch the SK today. Now, of course, he is arguing that originality is almost definitely CONFIRMED as the SK today, and that the best play for the town is to lynch someone who is NOT the SK.

The difference was due to my numerical analysis of things. It was not a magical conversion.

You are ignoring my post 474:

Unvote [Orig] What the hell am I thinking?

If Orig is a vig, the set-up is 6:3. In other words, a scum lynch today and a vig kill tonight can put as at 6:1. This game is well within our grasp. The constant focus on wcs has distorted things.

In post 779, vollkan claims to have "proved" that dybeck's argument that originality is scum is wrong.

Key words "dybeck's argument"

Are you seeing the trend here? I am not by any means saying that when vollkan posts a fact, the reverse must be true. But when Vollkan tells me that he has proved something, you'll have to excuse me wanting to test the waters for myself before diving in. And I really, really don't like his use of the "if you don't agree with what I have claimed to prove, you are by definition scummy" tactic through much of D2.

"Tactic"? My numbers prove things. People do the opposite, despite me having shown them to be anti-town and not being rebutted. It is perfectly sensible for me to suspect those people.

Verdict on #3

- Again, nothing.

#4: Vollkan has maintained a constant support for originality until very recently, but has offered shifting explanations of orig's role and shifting reasons for not lynching him. Like his attacks on dybeck, Vollkan's support of originality has been founded on a wildly shifting set of assumptions. He paints originality as most likely mafia through post 455. 457, he states that CarrotCake makes no sense for an SK kill. By post 487, Vollkan has come all the way around to believing originality's claim to be genuine. In 501, Vollkan is so certain that orig can't be the SK, he votes Oman for even suggesting it. He stays on the vigOrig theme through post 841, with occasional posts here and there continuing his rationale for why Orig can't be the SK; in one analysis of town scenarios in post 573, he doesn't even include the analysis of that situation.

In post 862, Vollkan posts that "Something dybeck has been saying throughout this game is that I am acting too convinced of Orig being pro-town. I want to be clear that Orig is acting scummy and I do think there is quite a good chance of him being scum. The problem is that he has claimed vig." He goes on to state that if orig is scum, he is most likely mafia, and that dybeck is the SK.

In post 999, Vollkan indicates that his post 993 offers "unrebutted evidence" demonstrating why Originality can't be scum. He then goes on to state that he is 65% likely that originality is scum. Heh.

In post 1011, Vollkan responds to more recent originality posts by raising his suspicion of originality to 75% scum, and then 100% scum. Even at this point, he maintains that dybeck is most likely also scum (if not aligned with orig). By 1268, Vollkan has turned the corner and claims that he has already established that he agrees that orig is the SK.

All in all, since Orig is unlikely the SK, we know the paths that can arise if he is mafia.

I am talking in terms of probability and of reasoning pathways.

If we lynch Orig (or anyone) and he is SK, then our wcs D3 is:
4:3 LYLO. Of course, if someone else is the SK, then we know Orig is scum, which takes us to 4:2 LYLO. If we get it right again, we move to 4:1 NOT LYLO.

If we lynch Orig (or anyone) and he is mafia then our wcs D3 is:
3:2:1 See my previous post for the yucky consequences of this. Basically a scum win most likely.

I look at both options here, so you can hardly say I am arguing he is one or the other.

Basically, all in all, I don't think we should lynch Orig today. If this is a SK-game, then there is a good chance of cross-fire. If it is not a SK-game, lynching Orig would be stupid and unproductive.

Convinced Orig is vig? It sure as hell doesn't look like it.

Now, next on the agenda. Unvote, Vote: Oman. FoS: Dybeck

Reason: Oman is now arguing firmly, and very poorly, that Orig is the SK. The fact that he is now trying to prove that Orig is the SK, in light of everything I have been saying suggests very strongly that he has a motivation to get rid of Orig.

Here, Oman is poorly arguing Orig is likely SK as support for lynching. I disagree with his arguments and see it as mafia trying to off the vig/SK. Gemelli is, again, misrepresenting me.

I am not "convinced" Orig is pro-town, though I consider it the most likely scenario. It is perfectly possible he is a SK (who has now well and truly lost the game), or he could be a mafia who claimed vig in the hopes of outing a real vig. Certainly, Carrot would not be my first choice for a vigging, but it is not ridiculously outlandish that a pro-town vig might target Carrot.

Again, I am pretty clear that I am NOT convinced. I argue he is probably pro-town, but I have clear reservations.

As for 862, Gemelli is again being completely fallacious:

This reminds me: Something dybeck has been saying throughout this game is that I am acting too convinced of Orig being pro-town. I want to be clear that Orig is acting scummy and I do think there is quite a good chance of him being scum. The problem is that he has claimed vig. I don't necessarily like keeping Orig alive today, but he has claimed and, if we lynched him and he came up vig, we would be truly kicking ourselves.

If Orig is mafia, then he is dead tonight anyway (by the SK) and thus will almost certainly carry out the mafia NK. Whilst a vig claim is unlikely, it might be used by a mafia to determine whether they have a vig or a SK against them.

If Orig is SK, then he has already lost and, thus, is a complete wildcard. This worries me, but I don't think Orig is a SK; a vig claim is just too suicidal.

If Orig is vig, then he will probably act properly tonight and follow consensus.

...
If Dybeck is SK, then he knows for certain that Orig is mafia. Thus, dybeck simply HAS to get rid of Orig today in order to have a hope.

Again, I am NOT convinced on Orig and it is pretty clear that my "IF dybeck is SK" thing is a hypothetical. It should be obvious that if dybeck is SK, Orig is mafia.

As for 999 and 993, I don't see the problem. My arguments were not rebutted. That doesn't mean I should be 100% convinced. 65% was what I thought and I don't see why it is unreasonable.

As for my rising suspicion, Orig has been looking more and more SKish to the point where I am now assuming he is scum (ie. 100%) Don't get me wrong, he could be vig, but his recent behaviour stands firmly against it. If you want an actual percentage, then I remain at 75%. I am just assuming henceforth that he will act as a SK to ensure that we plan for the worst.

Verdict on #4

- Misrepresentation of my stance on Orig.

* Much of Vollkan's arguments against Dybeck, when held up to close analysis, do not hold water. In post 1025, Vollkan himself claims that of the evidence vs Dybeck to date, "There are a number of minor tells in there, but collectively and when analysed by someone other than myself (multiple scrutiny = very important) it is not decisive." Since then, he has found new reasons to suspect Dybeck. Some of those reasons may be perfectly valid, but I find the degree of antagonism being levelled through the whole game, coming from such a wide variety of directions, to be suspect. Do minis ever have lyncher/lynchee roles?

And I think the antagonism is justified. By 1025, the point was that there was room for reasonable doubt (not 'decisive'). Since then, he has been getting even scummier (as I have been arguing)

* Vollkan has from time to time relied on fallacies and incomplete reasoning to present strongly-worded arguments. Meta analysis suggests that Vollkan does not exhibit those behaviors when playing as town. This is a significant scum tell to me, though not definitive.

Find me the fallacies and incomplete reasoning. As for the strongly-worded arguments, that is one thing I am prone to, and not just in games either.

* Based on the relationships I've been able to track here, if Vollkan *does* come up scum, I would consider his most likely scumbuddies to be Lucienne and Korlash.

I'm curious as to why.

* If Dybeck turns up town -- and it seems fairly likely that we will know his alignment as of tomorrow morning -- Vollkan will move to the #1 spot on my suspect list. One scenario that I have been considering with varying degrees of confidence is that mafVollkan picked up on Dybeck's cop tells early on D2, and that this is the real reason for him promoting a Dybeck lynch so heavily.

I know how bad I will look if dybeck is town.

As for the theory you give at the end, it's baseless conjecture.

* If Dybeck turns up scum, I will almost certainly be the next town lynch. Again, I recognize this fact, but feel that if I don't speak honestly out of fear for myself, I will be doing the town a disservice.

And I feel the same way about dybeck being scum.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
All in all, nothing substantial, largely misrepresentation and/or exaggeration.

[vollkan]

I posted...then I saw the second wave.

Give me some time...and caffeine

[vollkan]

Okay. I won't comment on every PA, since most won't need any comment. If there is anything specific you want me to address, tell me. I will mainly look at the themes of note.

353: I know I have been doing that sort of thing. The difference is that Lucienne was adding nothing of her own and that there is a good reason for people posting their suspicions at this stage of the game.
487: The change was due to the reality of the numbers
1001: Why the smile? There is no inconsistency
1088: I said vigging was very dangerous in the posts referred to, yes. Then I continued my line of wanting uncertainty. There is no contradiction. Vigging was dangerous, but uncertainty was good. It was only when I realised how dangerous exactly, that I decided to change my line.

Themes of note:

What is originality's most likely role?

* 408: Orig is suspicious, but AlyG is more suspicious
* 439: Scenarios where orig=vig are both unlikely
* 446: vigOrig is "plausible," if not likely.
* 448-449: Orig is most likely mafia with AlyG
* 455: Orig is more likely mafia than SK
* 457: CarrotCake doesn't make sense as an SK kill
* 487: Orig vig claim seems genuine
* 496-497: Orig is most likely not the SK
* 501: Suspecting that orig is the SK is suspicious
* 506-508: Orig is most likely vig
* 549: Orig is most likely not an SK. Claim is most likely genuine
* 573: Analysis of possible scenarios omit any possibility of orig being an SK
* 575: "I don't think Orig is SK"
* 598: "CarrotCake was clearly using very good logic and posting to a great extent. Thus, she was a threat to the scum. By NKing her, there is the added advantage of throwing suspicion onto AlyG. It is VERY plausible that scum would NK carrot."
* 607: "This makes me think he is unlikely to be mafia and, so, I am left thinking he is pro-town vig."
* 638: Orig is most likely town
* 642: Orig is most likely town
* 651: Orig may be SK
* 662: Orig is probably not SK
* 668: Orig mafia is possible, but less likely
* 675: To dybeck: "You were very actively hunting Orig as a SK. I don't believe Orig is SK. This was you hunting someone who could be a SK but is very likely vig and you are ignoring the actual hunting of mafia"
* 800: CarrotCake was "not clearly pro-town."
* 838: If Orig is SK, he has effectively already lost
* 841: vigOrig is most likely situation
* 862: "Something dybeck has been saying throughout this game is that I am acting too convinced of Orig being pro-town. I want to be clear that Orig is acting scummy and I do think there is quite a good chance of him being scum. The problem is that he has claimed vig." Raises possibility of mafia-orig and SK-dybeck
* 893: "If Orig = SK, he effectively loses unless mafia is lynched today"
* 907-908: "if Orig does not NK, he is almost certainly town."
* 993: "I know CC was not scummy and I think her suspicion in AlyG was very well-placed."
* 999: Claims that post 993 offers unrebutted evidence of why originality can't be scum. That being said, believes that originality is 65% likely to be scum
* 1001: "Why Dybeck is Wrong Regarding Originality Being Obvious Scum" ... immediately followed by a disclaimer that orig is 65% scum Smile
* 1011: Orig is now 75% scum
* 1208: Orig should "truthfully claim now"
* 1228: Orig is now 100% scum
* 1268: "I am the one agreeing that Orig is most likely the SK; I don't dispute that. All the 'evidence' is saying is that Orig is probably the SK."

I addressed these sorts of concerns in my previous post. I have never argued Orig is definitely one thing or another. My view has changed over time due to certain arguments one way or the other. I don't pretend that I was initially correct, because more arguments came to light over time. The 100% is an assumption to ensure we acting on wcs scenarios.

What is the town's best course of action today?

* 392: The "we should not kill the SK" strategy is only valid if we know the SK's identity.
* 398-399: It doesn't really matter whether we go after the SK or mafia today.
* 439: Votes dybeck
* 457: "In short, our best bet is to lynch the SK. I feel confident AlyG is not the SK, her actions are either mafia or tracker."
* 462: AlyG should track originality. Votes originality
* 487: "Oman and Dybeck have both really been taking similar lines in regards to Orig, however Oman did vote Dybeck in #440. I am now sure that this stance is anti-town, but I myself held it just yesterday until I realised how stupid it is. I have my eye on them, particularly Dybeck given all the previous stuff."
* 496-497: "My instinct is telling me that the people pushing Orig's lynch are mafia trying to score a vig or SK lynch"
* 492: We should not guide AlyG's actions tonight
* 501: Votes Oman
* 508: Votes Dybeck
* 512: Tells originality that "you should kill...just be careful"
* 517: "Don't kill tonight Orig."
* 526: Still favors a Dybeck lynch
* 544: Unvotes, still favors a dybeck lynch.
* 554, 557, 559: To orig: "in short, your vigging is dangerous to us."
* 565: A vig on N2 would be a bad idea
* 575: "I don't think we should lynch Orig today. If he is scum, then there is a SK (since I don't think Orig is SK) who would be crazy not to get rid of him. As such, lynching Orig today will only help that scum group. Dybeck is far more sensible a choice."
* 608: Anyone who wants to get rid of orig looks anti-town. "I think it might be better if we allow Orig to kill, but request that he take much more thought."
* 656, 658: Argues against the "no kill" limitation on originality.
* 662: We should let originality NK.
* 663, 666: Originality should be guided, but not restricted, by town consensus
* 680: "We haven't instructed Orig not to kill. Orig is to do as Orig sees fit, but with the utmost caution." And to AlyG: "Doc should probably protect either you or Orig, let me think on that one."
* 705: "I can't think of any reason to protect Orig" ... "At deadline, I would change to Oman if it came down to it, but I would prefer a dybeck lynch today."
* 725: Votes Oman
* 728: Votes Dybeck
* 747: "Orig should take our opinions as a basis but should exercise his own judgment. If Orig does NK, he will have a lot to answer for, but at the same time I want him to have complete freedom in this matter, to maintain the vital spectre of uncertainty."
* 751: Same argument: Orig should not be bound by consensus
* 754-755: "I would not support a blanket limiting of Orig to the consensus." Orig has "many justifiable methodologies" for selecting an action.
* 779: Firm direction for Orig would be better than vague guidance.
* 800: "I cannot support any motion to outright ban Orig from killing."
* 841: Does not want orig to kill, but does not want to ban him from killing.
* 865: "Dybeck SK NEEDS us to lynch mafia today in order to have a hope of winning."
* 902: Reiterates that orig should not be autolynched if he kills someone outside the consensus list.
* 921: "I read your analysis and I think that you are correct here and that we have finally determined the best approach to make. We should be demanding that Orig does not commit a NK."
* 927: Does not think there is a really strong argument for a ban on orig NKing vs. him using a consensus approach.
* 937: Once again, no-NK is the way to go
* 1053: Lynching originality would be bad for the town
* 1084: Ditto
* 1088: "If you read my posts #566 and #574, I argued that a vigging was very dangerous. In #560, I said I was definitely not up for the risk. In #558 I said his vigging was dangerous. And in #518 I agreed with shaft.ed's numerical argument against Orig vigging. That was just 6 posts after the first one you cite." <-- THIS IS FALSE. IN BETWEEN THOSE POSTS, VOLLKAN CONTINUED TO ADVOCATE FOR AN ORIG NK, AS DEMONSTRATED ABOVE
* 1098: Claims that his posts that included comments along the lines of "Orig is to do as orig sees fit, but with the utmost caution" were just a cryptic way of telling him not to NK, but keeping the uncertainty active.
* 1168: "Orig has been ordered not to NK, punishable by his own lynching. He won't NK."
* 1188: Votes dybeck to L-1
* 1190: Unvotes
* 1226: Anyone who wants to lynch originality is scummy by definition
* 1230: "Gemelli is suspicious for his supporting Orig's lynch when we know that it is not the best option for the town."

On Orig NKing:
My position was that a NK was bad, but uncertainty was good.

On whether or not to NK SK:
Changed as the numbers progressed.

What is dybeck's most likely role, based on the evidence?

* 439: "Dybeck's willingness to follow AlyG is very smelly"
* 487: "Oman and Dybeck have both really been taking similar lines in regards to Orig, however Oman did vote Dybeck in #440."
* 497: "my instinct is telling me that the people pushing Orig's lynch are mafia trying to score a vig or SK lynch.
* 501: "The fact that [dybeck] is now trying to prove that Orig is the SK, in light of everything I have been saying suggests very strongly that he has a motivation to get rid of Orig."
* 544: "The fact that Orig is supporting Dybeck's lynch is a little perturbing to me. If Dybeck is SK, then his death is going to mean the end of Orig."
* 598: "I was wrong...Dybeck's latest stuff makes a lot of sense and I now see he has never been stubbornly pushing for Orig's lynch; in fact, Dybeck now appears quite pro-town to me."
* 608: "he may very well be mafia trying to get rid of Orig; same goes for anyone on Orig's wagon."
* 651: "Dybeck's actions are also entirely consistent with him being a mafia hunting SK-Orig."
* 663: Dybeck's actions are consistent with mafia.
* 675: "Your argument that [originality] is lying has been refuted."
* 678: "I think it is possible that Dybeck is mafia with two of Elias/Lucienne/Gemelli and not Oman."
* 779: "I guess the question is basically: Dybeck who is adamant and scummy, or Oman who is opportunistic and scummy? When I frame it that way, Oman does look worse."
* 825: Dybeck may be mafia with Gemelli
* 862: Raises possibility of mafia-Orig and SK-dybeck
* 865: Dybeck is most likely mafia
* 1008: "The mind changing is something that bugs me for the simple reason that there was no need for him to change. He could have kept pushing Orig if he was so sure (as well as actually dealing with my arguments and rebuttal); there was no deadline. Instead, once Orig's NK is gone, he jumps over to Oman who he thought was the SK until fairly recently (remember, dybeck was adamant about not lynching the SK). "
* 1193: Dybeck may be the SK
* 1208: Doesn't think Dybeck is lying about his cop claim
* 1211: Dybeck's play doesn't make sense as mafia, but he could be an SK
* 1214: "In fact, dybeck would have looked much less suspicious if he had abandoned his case." (Compare and contrast with 1008)
* 1226: Dybeck may be cop, or may be mafia. Will likely be killed by the SK.
* 1251: Suspects Dybeck is mafia, lists possible buddies

Yes, by and large I have been arguing dybeck is mafia, but I have acknowledged he could be SK.

What is the alignment of Dr. BS/Gemelli?

* 349: "Dr. Blackstrike: Newbish. I don't think is scum."
* 598: "Gemelli looks very pro-town to me"
* 638: Gemelli is 55% scummy
* 670: Gemelli may be mafia with Dybeck
* 678: "I think it is possible that Dybeck is mafia with two of Elias/Lucienne/Gemelli and not Oman."
* 705: "As for the difference regarding my opinion of you, Gemelli. It stemmed from my changed views regarding Orig and the situation with Dybeck and from me remembering to consider your predecessor's play. When I said I thought you were very pro-town, I was reading you in isolation."
* 865: There are hints of buddyness between Gemelli and Dybeck, even though Dybeck seems to be more likely a SK (???)
* 1033: "If Oman is mafia I do not think that shaft.ed and gemelli are."
* 1228: Gemelli is 60% scummy
* 1230: "Gemelli is suspicious for his supporting Orig's lynch when we know that it is not the best option for the town."
* 1251: "I think the mafia in that situation are most likely- dybeck/Gemelli/Elias or dybeck/Gemelli/Korlash"
* 1259: PBPA on Elias. Suspects that I am Elias's most likely scum partner, followed by dybeck.

By and large, I think you are scummy. You make good contributions, which I did see as pro-town at a point, but by and large you are suspicious to me.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I feel like I am short-changing you by not responding with something equally as massive, but most of what I would have said, I said above anyway.

If there is anything in particular I have missed, let me know.

[vollkan]

No. The notable thing is that you have argued both sides of the fence against Dybeck. First, he seems mafia to you. Then his behavior doesn't seem consistent with mafia, so he must be the SK. It just feels to me like you've assumed the verdict and are just looking for the argument to support it.

I am looking at your posts in aggregate here. Individually, I do not have a problem with each post in and of itself. It's the attack-dybeck-from-any-angle-I-can-think-of approach that I find suspicious.

Actually, the only posts you refer to where I refer to dybeck possibly being SK were 544 and 1193.

As I have already said:

The fact that Orig is supporting Dybeck's lynch is a little perturbing to me. If Dybeck is SK, then his death is going to mean the end of Orig.

It is misrepresentation of Gemelli to say that here I am arguing dybeck is SK. I was merely pointing out that if dybeck shows up SK, Orig will be confirmed scum.
...

Something else to consider:
The possibility that dybeck is the SK. SKdybeck knows that Orig is mafia and wants him gone. SKdybeck thought he was at L-1, panicked and claimed cop, using Orig's guilty lynch as hopeful proof of him being cop.

I was NOT saying dybeck is the SK; I raised it as a possibility to remember, as any decent player would.

I'll say it again, apart from two lapses my view has consistently been that dybeck was mafia.
Lapse #1: Where dybeck appeared to post very good reasoning, actually turned out wrong on closer scrutiny.

Lapse #2: Where I felt his behaviour was consistent with cop, but then doubted it after questioning things more.

I would have been perfectly happy if you'd actually come out from time to time and admitted that you had made mistakes. But look at the facts: after the "quite pro-town" post you refer to (598), the VERY NEXT TIME you mentioned Dybeck (608), you had him back as likely anti-town, and then by 638 he was back at the top of your scum list and you voted him.

It's apparent to me that you have assumed a guilty Dybeck since very early in the game. Again, he might in fact be scum, in which case I will owe you an apology. But you have already acknowledged that most of your D2 arguments against Dybeck do not merit a vote, yet you continue to argue that your aggressive stance against him is justified. Something smells rotten in Denmark.

I was wrong...Dybeck's latest stuff makes a lot of sense and I now see he has never been stubbornly pushing for Orig's lynch; in fact, Dybeck now appears quite pro-town to me.

That was after his apparently well-reasoned post.

If Orig is the SK, then Dybeck's latest actions in no way make him pro-town, for the simple reason that he may very well be mafia trying to get rid of Orig; same goes for anyone on Orig's wagon. This goes for anyone, but I just don't think we should be pegging Dybeck as a townie purely because he is hunting a SK.

Here I am theorising about dybeck being mafia trying to off Orig. I even say that it goes for everyone, not dybeck in particular.

Scummy
Oman -- 60%
dybeck --65%

I think that our situation is 6:3 and that the mafia are probably Gemelli, Oman and Dybeck. Meta, Oman is quite easy to be swayed by strong opinions. For that reason, I would personally favour a lynch of Dybeck.

Unvote, Vote: Dybeck

The thoughts of mine in 608 influenced me to reconsider dybeck as scummy at 65%.

Have I assumed dybeck is guilty? No. That much is evident by the fact that I shift and think of him as pro-town at that point, and the fact that I lost faith in the decisiveness of the case at one point.

You are dodging my point. Much of your case vs dybeck is based on his single-minded pusuit of the scumOrig argument. And yet in 1214, you said "In fact, dybeck would have looked much less suspicious if he had abandoned his case" vs orig. This is a point that shaft.ed has also raised, and so far I have been unconvinced by your responses.

I am not dodging. I answered it.

If you want it more clearly. This is what I would have liked from dybeck:

Vollkan, after reading your arguments I realise that my case against Orig is not so solid as I thought. Moreover, regardless of whether he is SK or mafia, it is clearly not in our interests to lynch him.

You get the idea.

I overstated the case by saying you'd known it all along; that was a poor attempt at irony and I apologize. My point, though, was that you made a complete reversal of your stated opinion of CC between posts 598 and 800 with no incremental change of opinion stated in between. Shaft.ed's analysis pointed out that there was nothing innately uber-town about CarrotCake, given. But you quoted his analysis in a response to dybeck asking what evidence had been given that CarrotCake seemed scummy. Given your attack on dybeck for reversing his position on the orig-lynch topic, why is it questionable that I am suspecting you for a 180-degree reversal of opinion with no intermediate comment?

Irony? It was misrepresentation. Understand that I am holding that against you. I have no clue why you would apologise for doing so.

And you are being fallacious again here.

CC's later posts were good efforts at scum-hunting, even if the claims suggest otherwise. My remarks were confined exclusively to her later posts however, because I knew that she was pretty much a lurker besides. In fact, in 439 I actually said

Carrot was about more helpful than everybody else. Fine, he lurked early, but his later stuff was pure brilliance. I don't buy this at all.

I admit that Carrot's later posts probably contorted my opinion of her so that I thought more of her than I otherwise should have. That became clearer to me as things progressed.

No intermittent explanation? Hardly. I am surprised that you omit this.

I'm not buying this. Your defense has been that you were trying to deliver cryptic messages to orig that implied that he shouldn't kill, despite (1) your repeated verbal support for allowing him to lynch outside consensus, using his judgement, and (2) your insistence that you would not support any blanket ban on him killing. I find that argument specious, especially with post 680 buried in there where you consider the merits of giving orig doc protection tonight.

I will repeat what I have been saying again and again: I did not want Orig to NK; that should have been clear. I wanted it to be possible that he could kill. So, yes, I did support him being able to kill out of consensus and I did insist against a blanket ban until the numbers emerged.

In 680, again, my words were

Doc should probably protect either you or Orig, let me think on that one. Immediately, I see it being sensible for doc to protect you. If only because then if you track someone and they go for Orig, you could out the doc inadvertently, but let me think on this because I am not decided.

I was not taking a position until I thought about it. I do not see why you have such a problem with this.

As a newer player, it is harder for me to assess whether your numerical analyses are valid or not. They LOOK valid to me, absolutely. But my observation is that in this game, you have used the word "proof" when the facts do not really support it. And claiming that you proved an ARGUMENT was false, even when the conclusion ended up being true, does not inspire me to let your "proofs" direct my actions in this game.

I understand that you might find the arguments difficult to accept, but I know them to be valid and I have seen no argument against the conclusions I have formed based on them. If someone can argue against me, I will willingly change my position, but I believe I am correct based on the fact that there appears to be nothing at fault in my numbers.

Now you're just cherry-picking quote fragments. My point is that in 455, you said that Orig is likely not the SK, because "There is no logical reason for the SK to kill Carrot." In 457, you reiterated this point, questioning Oman for doubting you. And in 487, you said "The fact that has has claimed vig, a role likely to get NKed, points to him being genuine." You may not have been "convinced," but you were sure arguing strongly through this entire part of the game that his vig claim seemed legitimate.

In 455 I was actually arguing that a SKOrig would not have killed Carrot, since Carrot presented no real threat to him and I saw that as evidence for Orig being

mafia/

This I continued in 457, but it was not saying Orig was vig. It was taking one line of reasoning which led to Orig possibly being mafia.

And yes, I did see Orig's vig claim as pointing to him being genuine in 857.

What are you trying to show with this?

My point here was to show the start of your change in direction. Up until that post, nearly ALL of what you'd posted about originality supported the premise that his claim was genuine. This was the first time that you expressed a lack of conviction, and your posts prior to this did not make it "pretty clear" that you were unconvinced.

No. This is simply not the case. I assume you mean up to 862.

Let me take some quotes of mine.

If Orig is SK, why the hell would he claim the one pro-town role which we can be almost certain that the mafia will prioritise over all others.

I know that if I were a SK in Orig's position, I would have claimed weak doc or RB or something, NOT Vig.

Hence, my instinct is telling me that the people pushing Orig's lynch are mafia trying to score a vig or SK lynch.

1) How does this prove Orig is scum? This proves Orig is vig just as much as it proves he is SK/Mafia.
2) It is plausible. In fact, the very fact he has claimed it in light of its inevitable consequences makes me think it to be very plausible.
3) Not enough to prove he is scum, particularly in light of his claim.

Clutching at straws? I think my case for Orig being vig is a hell of a lot more convincing than your blind support for a lynch or Oman's feeble arguments.

What are you FoSing people for? I took notice of AlyG's claim; I have analysed it to no end. I have just come to the conclusion that Orig is very likely not a SK.

I guess this leaves us with Orig being vig or being mafia.

If Orig is mafia, then he knows there is a SK. Therefore, why would he claim vig when he could claim a safer pro-town role.

For argument's sake, let's use RB.
If Orig claims RB, we don't lynch him and he is not an immediate threat to the SK. Therefore, much safer.
Weak doc would be even safer still, along with many others.

It just doesn't make sense for scum-Orig to claim vig when that claim is the one which has the greatest chance of getting him killed.

Orig refers to him and AlyG as an "us" and then expresses real regret about how the " strategy " (VERY interesting word choice) exposes either of them to a lynching. If Orig is vig, then he has good reason to consider AlyG protown, but I don't get why he immediately fears the possibility of them BOTH being lynched.

Orig explicitly refers to "claiming us two". The emphasis is on the two of them. I mean, if I was in Orig's position I would say something more like "Why claim and reveal people so soon?", but Orig focuses on the two of them.

I really don't know what we should do here. AlyG and Orig were scummy yesterday, they are partner-ish today AND they are claimed power roles. It is the most frustrating situation I think I have ever encountered here.

Also, Orig, you do realise what happens if Dybeck or ANYBODY comes up SK?

The fact that Orig is supporting Dybeck's lynch is a little perturbing to me. If Dybeck is SK, then his death is going to mean the end of Orig.

Basically, in terms of town:mafia:SK, the likely situations we are currently in are:
A 6:3:0 --> This is where Orig is vig
B 6:2:1 --> Orig is mafia and someone (my bet is on Dybeck) is SK
C 5:3:1 --> Orig is mafia and someone (my bet is on Dybeck) is SK

Obviously, if Orig is telling the truth, only option A is possible.

Assuming Orig is the vig and that Orig is NKed tonight:
If we lynch town today, it goes to 5:3.
The scum NK makes that 4:3 (LYLO). Hence, we don't want Orig to NK because that will put us at a risk of 3:3 (LOSS).

If we lynch scum today, it goes to 5:2.
The scum NK makes that 5:2. If Orig mis-vigs, he will put it to 4:2 (LYLO). Hence, it is most likely a good idea not to vig.

Orig looks a lot worse to me right now but, for reasons I gave previously, I don't want him lynched today.

If Orig is the SK, then Dybeck's latest actions in no way make him pro-town, for the simple reason that he may very well be mafia trying to get rid of Orig; same goes for anyone on Orig's wagon. This goes for anyone, but I just don't think we should be pegging Dybeck as a townie purely because he is hunting a SK.

If we mislynch, we are either 5:3, 5:2:1 or 4:3:1.
The mafia will NK Orig. Making it either 4:3 (LYLO), 5:2 or 4:3 (LYLO).
Why will the mafia NK Orig (providing we do not blanketly ban him from NKing)? If Orig is scum, the major threat to him is the mafia. His goal, therefore, is to eliminate the mafia. Whilst we should most definitely not rely on him as a source of help, he does present an immediate problem to the mafia.
Anyway, Orig will either kill town or mafia. Meaning D2 opens at the above possibilities for a no-vig/SKing and the below if Orig kills:
3:3 (Loss), 4:2 (LYLO), 4:2 (LYLO), 5:1, 3:3 (Loss) or 4:2 (LYLO).

However, I personally believe Orig is pro-town.

If we lynch Orig, we are 5:3 or 5:3 if he is vig or SK, which is more likely than him being mafia. That means the mafia NK puts us in LYLO.

If Orig NKs AlyG, Orig has to be anti-town. Why? If AlyG comes up town, then Orig has, as you say, gone against everyone and killed a power role. That reeks of scumminess for obvious reasons.

If AlyG is mafia, then AlyGcould not have tracked Orig. I said this earlier on, but I was thinking about it in entirely the wrong way. This makes Orig obvMafia.

If AlyG is SK, Orig is obvMafia.

If Orig is mafia, then he faces the imminent prospect of being SKed. Thus, he will likely kill AlyG.

If we mislynch today and Orig is vig, a misvig can lose us the game. Thus, I think the best course of action in that event is a No Vig.
If we lynch mafia today, then Orig has license to act with due regard to our preferences. His lynch will be likely if breaches this, though not guaranteed.

The overwhelming pattern: I think orig is vig but I am not convinced. So yes, I was arguing he was likely vig, but I was fully aware he might not be. I really fail to see what this demonstrates other than that I was not convinced one way or the other.

Can you please name the fallacy I am committing here? What I am trying to demonstrate in these posts is that while your opinions of orig's role have shifted over the course of the game, the course of action you've advocated to the town -- lynching orig would be a bad idea -- has not. 862 is the first instance after weeks of pro-orig posts where you pull back on that, and I found that notable. Where's the fallacy?

This reminds me: Something dybeck has been saying throughout this game is that I am acting too convinced of Orig being pro-town. I want to be clear that Orig is acting scummy and I do think there is quite a good chance of him being scum. The problem is that he has claimed vig. I don't necessarily like keeping Orig alive today, but he has claimed and, if we lynched him and he came up vig, we would be truly kicking ourselves.

If Orig is mafia, then he is dead tonight anyway (by the SK) and thus will almost certainly carry out the mafia NK. Whilst a vig claim is unlikely, it might be used by a mafia to determine whether they have a vig or a SK against them.

If Orig is SK, then he has already lost and, thus, is a complete wildcard. This worries me, but I don't think Orig is a SK; a vig claim is just too suicidal.

If Orig is vig, then he will probably act properly tonight and follow consensus.

There is one possibility arising from this which interests me: If Orig is mafia and dybeck is SK. That would certainly explain dybeck's desperation to get rid of Orig. Assuming SK-Dybeck survives until tomorrow,
If we lynch a town today it becomes 4:3:1.
Mafia NK makes it 3:3:1
Dybeck's NK makes it 2:3:1 (basically mafia win) or 3:2:1 (messy)

If Dybeck is SK, then he knows for certain that Orig is mafia. Thus, dybeck simply HAS to get rid of Orig today in order to have a hope.

Where do I "pull back" on my opposition to lynching Orig? This quote is exactly consistent with the position I have been holding.

The problem is that you claimed that post 993 offered evidence for why Originality can't be scum. If you had claimed that the post offered evidence for why Originality is not definitely scum, I'd have no issues. But that's not what you did. Again, you are overstating the argument and I find it scummy.

Where did I say Orig cannot be scum.

My exact words in 993 were:

Again, dybeck, I find this case seriously wanting. Rather than re-running over the same ground again and again, please address my rebuttal. If you are serious about Orig, then don't get frustrated, explain why I am wrong.

I don't even know where to begin with this comment. Is he 100%, or 75%? Do you think he's the SK, or are you just making that assumption as a WCS?

The whole purpose of this section was to demonstrate that you have been making analyses of Orig's role throughout the game with confidence, and from time to time using your analysis as the basis for suspecting others who question your "don't lynch orig" advocacy. I find that suspicious.

Orig is 75% scum in my opinion. However, I am assuming he will act like a SK for the sake of reasoning. Thus, he is 100% for purposes of determining our strategy.

As for the lynch Orig thing: I believe, firmly, that not lynching Orig is in the town's best interests. I have been arguing this for so long now and have received no numerical rebuttal that I find it highly suspect that people would still go ahead and support Orig's lynch. Why is this scummy of me?

It's the same behavior I noticed in your attitudes toward me: I went from "very pro-town" to "55% scummy" with minimal interim commentary on why. You've claimed that this was because you had forgotten to read me in context with Dr BS, but your assessment of him before I joined was that he was newbish, but probably not scummy. When one sees radical shifts in direction without supporting commentary to back it up, pointing that behavior out is important. You've jumped on those sorts of things yourself this game, so please don't act appalled when someone else applies the same standards to you.

I'm not appalled.

As for my change on you, yes, I thought BS was newbish but probably not scummy. Nonetheless, he had still given scumtells making him a 55%. For me, a neutral player is 50%. I was not going to eradicate my thoughts on BS just because your posting had appeared good. I gave you a 55% and I stand by that.

Ad hominem against Korlash (the "Village Idiot"). Begging the question ("I argue that X is true, player Y argues that this is not true, therefore Y is suspicious since X is true"). Poisoning the Well (Oman giving AlyG townie brownies is "kind of like giving Hitler the Nobel Peace Prize"). And all of the stuff I've harped on about how some of your "proofs" about Originality and Dybeck are actually just strongly held opinions. I do not have the stomach to pick out every single instance of fallacious reasoning in your posts, but will locate more examples if you insist.

I did not ad hom against korlash because I did not use his idiocy to discredit his arguments. Ad hom is:
Person X says Y
Person X is a "z"
Therefore, Y is untrue.

I refuted Korlash's arguments on their logical merits (or lack thereof)

Begging the question. This is untrue. My understanding of what I did:
I demonstrate that X is bad, nobody challenges this. People support X. Therefore, I suspect those people.

Poisoning the well: The Hitler thing was jest. I argued very strongly with argument that AlyG was scummy.

As for Orig and dybeck, I have never been 100% convinced on anything. I have argued my cases and, when I was not refuted, I stuck to my guns. If somebody wants to disagree with me, I expect them to prove me wrong. If they don't, I am going to hound them until they do. My arguments were not solid proof, but if a person disagreed I expected them to debate me.

For Lucienne, there were a few things. When she needed to go on V/LA, you used strong wording to indicate that you didn't want her replaced. You showered praise on her for identifying a tenuous Dybeck/Elias relationship. And your short-term vote on her smells of bussing to me.

I simply said "I don't want Lucienne replaced" (in 492). The reason I said this was because she had said she did not want to be replaced. I know I would be peeved if I got replaced and I did not want to be replaced, so I said I did not want her to.

The dybeck/Elias thing was information which may prove valuable yet.

As for the bussing "smell", this is pure conjecture from you. My reasons for voting Lucienne were suspicion of her, pressure and a desire to see what Orig did.

For Korlash, I am basing most of this on your relationship with Oman before he was replaced. You and he seemed to bolster each others' numerical analyses, and you were resistant to move your vote to him several times even while stating that you thought he seemed scummier than even Dybeck. Admittedly, your back-and-forth with him today makes this link seem weaker, but given the other possibilities, Korlash makes the most sense.

You are balanced here and what you say is sensible so I won't debate you.

Fair enough. If Dybeck does turn up scum, I preemptively apologize for dragging the town down this rabbit hole. But until we get his alignment confirmed, I do think there is cause to suspect you as a possible mafioso, and honestly I don't think you've done anything to allay my suspicions.

After this, what more do I need to address?

[vollkan]

I appreciate your at least acknowledging that you changed your mind here. What bothered me was that during this part of the game, you weren't just arguing for keeping orig a little uncertain; you wanted to give him the option of choosing any action, regardless of town consensus. That line of discussion bothered me at the time, and I wanted to capture it here.

That's fine. As I have already explained, I did not want dybeck to kill outside of consensus; I simply wanted the threat to exist.

But we have to look at the whole game here. You jumped on dybeck for many posts just because he used the terms "certain" and "100%" in making his arguments ... "a townie should never be 100% certain of anything," remember? And yet here you are in post 1228 using "100%" on originality. You didn't qualify that post as a wcs analysis. You were posting your scumdar ratings on all of the players. Do as I say, not as I do ...?

I should have stated that my Orig thing was me thinking in wcs terms for reasoning. As I have said, the figure should be 75% not taking wcs.

Please don't apologize for not replying at great length. I assume that at some point, you will get around to doing a PBPA of me, and you can return the favor then Smile I don't necessary think we need to keep going back and forth on these points either ... I think that our players will be able to review what we've posted already, and come to their own conclusions.

Agreed. In my experience (chiefly with Elias), after more than 2 rounds of rebuttal and counter-rebuttal, things degrade to the point of collapse.

I encourage other people to raise specific points, if any remain or emerge.

I am not (despite how it may seem) trying to build momentum for a Vollkan lynch here. I am simply trying to point out that there is some cause to suspect you, just as you've pointed out that there is cause to suspect me. And given that you have been advocating a strategy for the town, I think it makes sense for each of us to ask questions on your possible motivations.

I appreciate you are not building for my lynch, but let me be frank: Given the level of contortion in a number of your arguments, I am beginning to fear that I am falling in for a trap where cop-dybeck gets lynched and I emerge as the most likely suspect. For that reason, I have my eyes on you.

I have a tendency towards paranoia, but this is FTR.

[vollkan]

But I do agree he has been using wording that makes it seem his analysis is gospel.

That's a personality thing. As I have been saying, when I make a case or analysis which seems correct to me, I get annoyed if people go against it without proving me wrong. When I do get proven wrong, or there is some supervening thing discovered, I am happy to alter my position.

In regards to him being swayed by my opinions, I have also noticed this, and have been worried by it. I can attribute it to vollkan being scum trying to buddy up to me, or the fact that I make really good points

Whenever you have been at odds with me on something, you have argued your case in the proper way: By proving that I am wrong or am overlooking something. It's more a compatible playstyle thing than anything else. Your style of argument is the sort that I respect.

I can respect that. What I have a hard time with is that anyone who does not fall into lockstep with your arguments to be suspect.

Well, that's how I think. If a person is going to disagree with me and not argue with me, then I will suspect them and hound them for it.

I'm honestly glad that you are suspecting me, as it shows that you are active in the game and are willing to assess less-obvious details. I would like to think that you'd grant me the same leeway. But you don't honestly believe in that trap premise, do you? That's more than a stretch.

Actually, I do. As you say, nobody appears to be opposed to dybeck's lynch. Since I think Orig is the SK, that fact is one which points in dybeck's favour as being cop. When you look at things that way, the trap is actually a very plausible scenario.

You have every right to be mad at this. I should have done this at the time but FoS vollkan and originality for the Lucienne side track

Do you mean my vote for Lucienne here?

If so, you have obviously missed the fact that it achieved all that I really wanted it to. I've hinted at this before, but a primary motivator for me was seeing what Orig's response would be.

Firstly, see mini 486. Nothing is over the top for me.

This is true

AlyG, Lucienne, dybeck - POST!

[vollkan]

I find it funny you keep ignoring what me and Elias are doing.. I would feel you would want to say something, one side or the other... I mean either tell me I am over pushing it, or he is over reacting... Or a combination of both... don't ignore it... *Angry face*

I'm reading it with interest, but I don't want to intervene. I get peeved when people interfere in my own arguments.

To be honest, the whole thing looks like an enormous pissing match of the type I had with Elias in 486. You don't actually seem to be going anywhere and you are both getting worked up.

If you have specific points you wish me to comment on, by all means list them, but as of right now I haven't seen anything noteworthy.

[vollkan]

I can understand that. In our games together I feel quite comfortable with your content and posting style making me assume your towniness. I find this dangerous, but it seems inescapable as its some sort of synergistic playstyle thing. (Note to self go meta some vollkan scum games)

Mini 436. Here, people assumed I was pro-town for a large amount of the game, but I was mafia. This is the best reflection of my playstyle.

Newbie 358. Note, that the early newbie 358 stuff was my first time as mafia and, hence, the later stuff in this game/Mini 436 is a better reflection.

This "trap" scenario relies on me being mafia, then? In that case, who would be my scummates? The names you've tossed out as possible collaborators with gemMafia are dybeck and Elias, right? So if dybeck's cop, who else am I mafia buddies with?

At the moment, I would be some combination of Elias, Korlash and possibly Lucienne. I would need to look at things more to work it out, but I think it would be among those 3.

I'll just say it as plainly as I can: Vollkan, I am not trying to set a trap for you. I am trying to ensure that I perform the proper due diligence before I commit myself to a strategy that you are advocating. Personally, I have a feeling that I myself am now faced with a Catch 22 ... if dybeck comes up scum, I am fairly certain you will be going after me as his mafia buddy. But now you've posted that if he comes up cop, it is plausible that I have set a trap for you. I don't begrudge you your suspicions, but it is absolutely frustrating to get the sense that you will be going after me no matter what I do.

Well, the only reason I think the trapping thing is plausible is because of how many problems I had with your arguments. Contrived arguments are a scumtell.

If it weren't for that, I would be less inclined to view this as a potential trap.

It is not really a Catch-22, because I still see the scenario that your suspicions are genuine as viable; the flaws in your analysis just perturbs me.

One final question for you (before we turn our attention to the actually important issue, who we're going to lynch today): why was it that when I advocated lynching either orig or dybeck, you FoS'd me, but when Elias made the same suggestion, you agreed with him? Was my wording THAT different from his?

Post reference/s?

If you meant in 1226 where I said:

In any case, for me the matter comes down to a simple decision: do we believe originality, or do we believe dybeck? Given dybeck's breadcrumbing, and originality's scummy play at the very start of D2, I am more inclined to believe dybeck at this point. I think that ONE of them is the right play today, for sure, and am leaning strongly towards originality at this point

Gemelli thinks Orig is the SK. Fine, so do I. BUT, Gemelli also favours lynching Originality. In fact, he sees the fact that we lynch either of them as near axiomatic.

Lynching SKOrig places us in LYLO. For someone who has been so cautious all the way through things, this is a major slip.

FoS: Gemelli

....

All I know is that lynching orig would be bad. I havent really made up my mind on Korlash, but he's digging himself into a deeper hole everytime he posts. This doesnt mean he scum necessarily though. I'll have to reread the discussion he's had with Vollkan.

This is a null tell. Elias has the right attitude, but adopted it after people brought up the numbers of the matter again.

The difference was that Elias opposed Orig's lynch quite clearly whereas you believed lynching one of them was definite and that lynching Orig was likely better.

[vollkan]

Korlash, I have explained the 100% thing. It was wcs reasoning. My view is 75%, but I am assuming 100% for the sake of argument and predicting Orig's behaviour. I should have made that clear.

Also on a more serious discussion note... Can Vollkan please define "Misrepresentation" in his own words. He used it enough in his defense that I figure if I want to take his statements to their full meaning I should get his exact meaning down pact. I could look it up, but that doesn't necessarily mean that is the definition he meant, if you see where I am going here... if not I am not asking for the definition, I am asking Vollkan to define it... So I don't need like Shaft.ed to define it or something... I'll stop talking now...

In the context of the argument, "misrepresentation" meant referring to my quote as indicating something when, in fact, it was quite clear that the opposite was true or, alternatively, using one quote to say something without regard to related posts by me nearby.

4) Vollkan- I cannot ignore my gut feelings I got through my read up. But it is true his play style is something I am not used to. I like how in depth he is with posts, his way of thinking, and how aggressive yet to the point he can seem. I cannot look past the "Following Shaft.ed" angle, or the fact that Gem has made a few good points I agree with.

Which points are those?

Um I have other feelings here... I secretly believe Vollkan would make a good SK this game... Would explain a few things in my mind... Like... Why he felt keeping Orig alive was a good thing... and why he was so convinced Orig would be NKed... needless to say that can also be explained as him being town but still... It is a thought.

If I were SK, why would I want Orig kept alive? Orig would be confirmed mafia to me and I would want him dead. I know this has a huge wifom element to it, but there is seriously no motivation for a SK to emphatically argue in favour of letting a mafioso live.

My conviction that Orig will be NKed is simple:
* If he is mafia, the SK needs to get rid of him
* If he is vig/SK he is a direct threat to the mafia and they will have a strong desire to get rid of him.

[vollkan]

Gladly. You want a concise list of questions, here you go. I demand that you answer all of them. After the amount of content the rest of us are putting it, it's the very least you can do.

First up, I shall shamelessly ask shaft.ed's questions which you have persisted in avoiding. See shaft.ed's post 1269 if you want to see the context behind each of these.

1) Why investigate originality?
2) Why wait on bringing up your case on originality?
3) Where is your case against originality?
4) If you have a guilty investigation why offer to hammer someone else?
5) Why did you claim prematurely?
6) Why did you forget to vote for a proven killer you had a guilty investigation on?
7) Why are you not providing more insight into who the scum groups might be?

Now for some of my own:
8) What is your scumdar? I want names, at least one sentence per person and a % ranking.
9) Why are you lurking?
10) Why did you claim cop despite me having made it patently clear that lynching Orig was a bad idea? By this, I mean that all you did was needlessly out yourself if you were cop. If you were in real peril of lynch, then fine, but you weren't.
11) Why do you support lynching Orig despite the numbers lying firmly against it?
12) What was your basis for saying "the scum are most vocal"?

I'll probably think of more questions, but these make a damn fine start.

ANSWER THEM!

[vollkan]

What I was reacting to is that shaft.ed and I both suggested that lynching either Dybeck or Originality as the right play today. When I did so, it earned me a FoS and was "a major slip." When shaft.ed did it, your only reply was to comment on the numbers. The big difference in our posts: I leaned more in favor of lynching orig, and dybeck leaned more in favor of lynching dybeck. Other than that, we made the SAME EXACT ARGUMENT.

I read shaft.ed in a different way.

I thought he was simply stating that Orig and dybeck are more likely to be scum, without actually advocating for the lynch of both of them. The last sentence looked to me simply like he was saying that we should not consider anybody else to be of the same likelihood. This was why I responded with the numbers rather than an attack.

Again, I'm utterly frustrated here. When I make an argument, I earn a FoS. Someone else makes the same argument, and isn't suspected at all. When I look at possible scenarios involving you being scummy, they are "baseless conjecture" and "complete rot." When you look at possible scenarios involving me being scummy, they are "quite plausible" and "not at all far fetched," despite both sets of scenarios being founded on the same type of basis: HYPOTHESES and GUESSWORK.

When I called it baseless conjecture, I was a little peeved by your abuse of some of my quotes, which might explain the tone. On a more logical level, I didn't see any reasoning beyond the fact that I had been protecting Orig, which I had been arguing for on numerical grounds. Hence, when you called it "constant drumming" of opposition to Orig's lynch, I felt it to be a dismissal of the numerical basis for my opposition to lynching Orig.

I only called your misuse of quotes "complete rot" and I stand by that. I don't mean that as a personal attack. I simply mean that a number of your points were founded on misrepresentations of what I had said.

If you're going to hold me to a different standard of behavior than other players in this game, and you are going to point fingers at me for holding your posts to the same level of scrutiny that you apply to others, there is honestly no point for me to continue engaging in discussion with you. You've successfully pissed me off, congratulations. If you DO end up being pro-town in the end, you and I are going to have to have a long talk after this game about jumping to conclusions with both feet.

I'm not holding you to a different standard. The points I called rot were rot, because they took what I had said entirely out of context on a number of occasions. This is not holding you to a different standard; if anybody had said what you said I would have been equally as harsh in my counter-argument.

If, by jumping to conclusions, you are referring to my attitude towards those who disagree with me on the SK thing, then I make no apologies. I have put a lot of time into my position on this matter and I am not going to take kindly to deviation from my own view unless someone can prove me wrong. If they do, I am perfectly happy to accept my own errancy, but when we have people actually posting that they are ignoring my numbers, you should understand my irritation.

EBWOP: I agree with your definition of misrepresentation. I do not agree with the way you've applied it to my arguments for the most part. In some cases, your intent may have been "quite clear" to you (as the author of the post, I would hope so). It was not clear to me in many cases, and I saw some grounds for suspicion. I agree with Korlash's point: I think you make too many assumptions that certain of your premises are "obvious" and should be taken as absolutely true. Suspecting someone because they don't think the same way that you do isn't a reasonable way to play.

Let's take a look at just one of the examples where I used the term. You accused this:

The fact that Orig is supporting Dybeck's lynch is a little perturbing to me. If Dybeck is SK, then his death is going to mean the end of Orig.

of being me arguing that dybeck was the SK.

My response:

It is misrepresentation of Gemelli to say that here I am arguing dybeck is SK. I was merely pointing out that if dybeck shows up SK, Orig will be confirmed scum.

My intention is pretty clear from the words "If dybeck is..."

This same thing about me speculating on possibilities and you stating that they were me stating facts was something that ran throughout. I frankly doubt that you could read me so wrongly.

[vollkan]

Re-read both of our posts. It looks to me like shaft.ed and I are both saying that one of the two players, originality and dybeck, is the correct play for today. Do you at least understand why this is frustrating to me?

If you are reading shaft.ed that way, then absolutely I understand your response to my attacking you. If shaft.ed is taking the "we must lynch one of them approach" then I will jump up and down at him as well.

I absolutely agree that SOME of the points that I presented

did not provide strong evidence.

The post you quoted above is an example where I misunderstood your intentions. When you posted "if dybeck is the SK," this implied to me that you were seriously considering the possibility. If you weren't seriously considering it, fine. But this is a misunderstanding, NOT misrepresentation. It's only misrepresentation if I am deliberately distorting your views to further my own ends. And I think it's unfair to dismiss all of my findings as "misrepresentation" based on one or two instances where my reading differs from your intent.

The bolded is euphemism.

In this game (I mean "mafia" generally, not "Mini 495"), the "misunderstanding" thing is one of the easiest techniques of scum. I've done it as scum in games myself. You take a quote and alter its meaning just slightly to fit a picture you want to paint and then, if attacked, you call it a misunderstanding.

All I have to go on here is what you say to me. If what you say results in a HoS and what you say is a flawed argument, I am going to see it as misrepresentation. (On that note, given our exchange, does the HoS stand?)

Additionally, it need not be conscious distortion. Cherry-picking quotes which meet a picture you are trying to pain also results in the same thing. In that case, the distortion is indirect.

I speculate on every possible option. At some points, I may get into my speculation and begin to reason within that speculation, making it look like an arbitrary change, but it is how I reason through things: By looking at every scenario and flowing with it. Similarly to me going devil's advocate on myself regarding Orig for a bit. I just wanted to see what the case was like.

(1) I think that you may have a tendency to make early judgements on players, and to allow your perceptions of those players to influence your interpretation of their content, and

That's not how I see shaft.ed's argument, remember.

On a more general level, I would like to think that I attack all points on their logical merits. I may be inclined to view posts by my suspects with a greater paranoia, but I don't think that matters providing that I address the arguments themselves.

(2) You have been assuming that people who QUESTION (not deny) your arguments are scummy. While I have some strong opinions in this game, I do not assume that people who do not agree with those opinions are necessarily anti-town. There is room for different perspectives and opinions among the town. There is nothing wrong with someone questioning my own arguments, no matter how strongly held.

I have been assuming that those who question my arguments are scummy when they adopt positions, or profess to be "unsure", without actually refuting my arguments.

I suppose, my expectation is that if someone has a genuine concern they will actually ask me a question, rather than simply sitting on the fence.

This may come down to a question of play styles. It's frustrating to me because this is one of my first games, and I have been putting in a TON of effort to help the town out as much as I can. To have that effort twisted into further evidence of scumminess makes me feel that the effort just isn't worth it, frankly.

If this is the case, I know precisely how you feel. I was not twisting what you said, and I find it rather odd that you would use that word choice. You attacked me with flawed points, misrepresenting me in effect, if not in intention. I cannot judge your subjective intention, so I can only go by the objective intention which is expressed in your words. That intention was one of contortion.

You'll notice that I haven't actually FoSed or voted you. It's because in my first game here, as vanilla, I got trampled upon for attempting to scumhunt but making all the wrong mistakes. I don't see what you have done necessarily as a definite scumtell, but believe me that I've got my eye on you.

It would be remiss of me not to come down hard on you for it.

Please whatever you do, do

not

stop posting.

That's absolutely the

most

important thing.

Not to sound pretentious, but if I could give you some advice it is to make sure that you check and double-check ANY post reference you make to another player.

I am not ignoring your numbers. As I've said, the numbers look reasonable to me. But as a newer player, I do not want to assume that your numbers represent an ironclad pro-town strategy. I have been asking questions and thinking of possible scenarios in which those numbers could be pro-scum simply because I DO NOT HAVE THE EXPERIENCE TO FULLY EVALUATE THE NUMBERS ON THEIR OWN MERIT.

Okay, so the main issue here is that you are not confident enough to judge whether or not the numbers are the result of scumvollkan trying to fool you.

That's fine. If that has been the problem all along, I should be kicking myself for not understanding you earlier.

I frankly don't know how to prove to you that they are pro-town, since by the sound of things that requires proof of my alignment (and even then, their validity is not iron-clad).

[vollkan]

AlyG, we need a lot more than answering questions at this point. We need your input on ALL of the players in the game, and we need your thoughts on who the right lynch is for today.

It's been a long, long time since you posted anything with a substantial amount of content. Please: we need you to weigh in this week! Posting your scumdar ratings of everyone in the game would be a good start; posting your opinions on the cases vs. dybeck and originality would be another.

This gets a QFT.

AlyG, as the only confirmed (well, not entirely) townie, your opinions are especially important.

I don't want another IOU. I want a scumdar.

[vollkan]

Here you do clearly point out that ONE of the two is the correct lynch for today, but you haven't explained why that is. Also you lead in the first logical premise with what should actually follow. If you had strctured this a little differently I don't think it would have had the same reaction. So start with "I think that ONE of them is the right play today" and also explain why (you didn't do this). Then add in all of your reasons why one is a better choice than the other. The way you've set it up you hardly even notice that you are saying dybeck and orig are most likely scum even with the ONE bolded, and again you didn't explain why you just said you think it's the right play.

Yes, that's basically what I meant when I was saying

I thought he [shaft.ed] was simply stating that Orig and dybeck are more likely to be scum, without actually advocating for the lynch of both of them. The last sentence looked to me simply like he was saying that we should not consider anybody else to be of the same likelihood. This was why I responded with the numbers rather than an attack.

and

If you are reading shaft.ed that way, then absolutely I understand your response to my attacking you. If shaft.ed is taking the "we must lynch one of them approach" then I will jump up and down at him as well.

Gemelli, you assumed that one of them was the right play and then chose Orig.

That said I do think vollkan over-reacted and your being upset was justified especially since vollkan bolded the part of the quote that was the least subjective in order to present his argument.

The part I bolded was the part I have the most issue with though. I bolded where he said he thinks one of them for sure, and chooses Orig. That was my problem; adopting a developed stance without actually explaining

why

If you're going to run these gambits you have to be prepared for how scummy they will make you look.

Absolutely. I know they are all unorthodox and some border on being "scummy" (I assume you mean that building a case for ulterior purposes is something scum do, rather than that my actions are anti-town)

However, it doesn't matter if the cat is white or black, so long as it catches mice. I see the information I gain through them as being highly valuable (the Lucienne thing got me exactly what I wanted to know).

I was more referring to your views on me. My perception was that you decided early that I was probably (55%+) scummy, and have been reading my posts from that perspective: focusing on suspicion and minimizing the merits.

Gemelli, 50% is my default position. I gave you a mere 5% extra.

As far as how to prove your arguments are valid to me, I don't think YOU can yourself ... but a consensus of players can. Does that make sense?

Yes.

I have been pulled towards lynching dybeck as being the preferable choice between him and orig, since there seems to be general support for (or at least a lack of resistance to) the "lynching the SK would be bad for town" platform. But I want to reiterate this: my level of confidence that orig is anti-town exceeds my level of confidence that he is the SK. That being said, I am anxious to get input from everyone on what their preferred strategy for today is.

I don't think you are in any doubt as to mine: Lynch mafia. Dybeck is the most likely mafia. Therefore, lynch dybeck.

I'm slowly getting over my pissiness

Glad to hear it

[vollkan]

Ok... A lot of the things I was going to comment on are just a waste of time and would only make me look worse for slowing the game up...

Self-preservation prevails again, Korlash. You don't want to post because it might have negative ramifications for yourself.

I believe I am leaning towards Dybeck or Orig. Which I know to be kinda contradictory, but I know one of them is lying and so if I should choose to believe Dybeck's claim

I would vote with him, thus Orig.

I have no intention of voting/lynching/leaning Elias at all... I thought I made hat clear when I posted my two different scumdars.. Guess not..

@ Gemelli: What were we just talking about? Look at what Korlash has posted.

Korlash is doing precisely what you did, only in a more fence-sitting fashion. He is assuming that BECAUSE one of dybeck and Orig is scum THEREFORE one of them must swing. He is failing to explain why it is pro-town for one of them to swing, by failing to engage with the numbers.

@ Korlash: Even if you DID believe dybeck's claim, why would you want to lynch Orig? You are ignoring the numbers of the situation and not explaining the reasoning behind your position. For that,

FoS: Korlash

So if you say someone is 5% town you mean they are very likely town?... interesting...

Every person begins at 50%. Town tells make that lower, scum tells make that higher.

A ranking of 5% would equate to near certainty that person was town.

Typically, my scumdars read people as being over 50% than below, because I am usually paranoid and see very few things as town tells (due to wifom and the fact that I know that scum can read pro-town).

Oh and I believe it is time to Vote: Dybeck

You have given no rationale for this vote. Moreover, why on earth is this "time" ripe for voting dybeck?

Moreover, just before you said:

1) Dybeck- Claim has many faults and snags in it. Was keen on jumping on me in a somewhat... scummy way... Most of his posts seem to lack content and he does seem to avoid a lot fo the more direct statements at him.

I already said i will give him one defense post before voting but if he waits too much longer I may vote anyways.

dybeck has NOT given a "defence post" yet and it has not even been a full day since you made this "I will give him..." post.

Explain.

[vollkan]

He's at 3 votes by my count:

AlyG, vollkan, Korlash

If he gets to -1, I will unvote.

[vollkan]

I'd like to know why, for a supposed vig, you are about the least active contributor in this game.

[vollkan]

No, I do not want to post because it would spiral us into another one of our "pointless" discussions and I could be accused of hindering scum hunting again... Wait... that is what you said.. nevermind...

Korlash, refusal to comment out of fear of attack is scummy. If you don't want to debate that's fine, but don't expect me to just accept that reason for not saying something.

I have on more then one occasion explained my views on Orig... You just seem so convinced you are right that you choose to shoot down any points we make against him. I don't have to give my god damn opinions on why I want the fucking SK dead moron... I agree he is not the best lynch, but if he did get an honest to god scum investigation I am more inclined to believe he is mafia and thus more inclined to agree he is an acceptable lynch. As of right now I have no intention of lynching him and no intention of spiraling us back into the fucking 800 pages of useless god damn same exact post after the other... God man are you that full of yourself that you are the best god damn mafia player in the world that you have to be right even if proven that your trying to protect a known mafia? God damnit man... This gets me so pissed off that... gaw.. ahhhh... I wana go out and punch little kids tricker treating now..

WOW THAT FELT AWESOME! I now see why people do it... god.. wow... I feel great... Probably going to get lynched.. but man... still feel great...

So, your position is:
You don't want to lynch Orig because dybeck could be lying, but it dybeck were proven to be telling the truth, then you would see Orig's lynch as acceptable.

I'll try and explain the numbers in the most simple form I can, by taking the wcs and the most likely cs, assuming Orig is SK and we have 3 mafia, making it currently 5:3:1 (since that is the wcs)

Mislynch

wcs = 2:3:1 LOSS (mafia win)
Most likely = 3:3:1 lynch-mafia-or-lose

Mafia Lynch

wcs = 3:2:1
Most likely = 3:2:1 (Lynch-SK-and-lose) or 4:1:1*

* Let me explain. If we lynch mafia, Orig will most likely NK. If Orig NKs, he will, obviously, hit town or scum. Now, judging by his reaction to my Lucienne vote (this is

important

) Orig appears to be trusting

my

scumdar above anybody else's. That is, obviously, not a helpful thing because I could well be wrong. That's one reason why we all need to be explicitly clear about who we think is scum. SKOrig will, I believe, follow those he feels to be most pro-town (since his goal is to catch mafia) above the others. That corresponds with his thing way back about favouring the consensus of some over others.

SK Lynch

WCS = 4:3 LYLO

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Now, what we see here is that our best scenario comes from lynching mafia. Our worst scenario (loss) comes, obviously, from a mislynch. However, if Orig is SK, he hurts himself by NKing if we mislynch today (because it has no advantages but could well hand the mafia the game).

I hope this makes things a little clearer.

Seriously though, I have told him on more then one occasion that if he does not quit not helping, does not contribute, and that after one post if I am not satisfied I will vote him. He could have easily said "SOMETHING" in his last post.. but instead he took the easy way out and killed another two days of the deadline time. He deserves my vote. Crap cop claim that he won't even try to back up, combined with the fact he just plain wanted to lynch me for no reason, I have more then enough reason to put my vote on him and if you cannot see that then why don't you fucking unvote before trying to weaken my vote on him. (Ok I lied.. it still feels good ^^)

If those are the reasons you voted, that's fine.

*Worthless Disclaimer: Please excuse all the above foul language and personal attacks. Korlash is under a lot of pressure at work and has been undergoing a lot of stress. While it does make him feel good to lash out it will probably only lead to him becoming an alcoholic. And I do not have the money to spend on beer! In short.. can I borrow $5?

I make a point of not being offended by foul language. I expect people to tolerate rudeness from me if ever I get pissed, and I extend them the same courtesy in kind. If nobody got offended, nothing would be considered rude and the world would be so much happier.

[vollkan]

I wanted to cover this on its own:

Also, because I can clearly see this post as my "damning" piece of evidence, I want to say this now. Most of your "numbers" are based on him being the SK. And the numbers you have for him being mafia all point to his likeliness of being NKEd.. I don't know about you But I am not the kind of person to cross my fingers and hope a mafia is killed instead of just... KILLING HIM NOW! We kill a mafia, end of story, great lynch, good day, point for us! If Dybeck is telling the truth I think a 100% mafia lynch is better then listening to your numbers and losing come tomorrow... As it stands I feel Dybeck is lying... So it all really doesn't matter...

No. Absolutely not. And if you had paid attention to the numbers you would understand why.

Let's assume Orig is mafia.

Lynch of Orig = 5:2:1

Lovely. Now, here we have an unknown SK who would be crazy not to NK. Thus, the SK shoots. The most likely outcome is us opening at 3:2:1.

In contrast, if we do not lynch mafOrig today, for the sake of argument let's use a mislynch 4:3:1. Mafia NK makes it 3:3:1. The SK would be

crazy

not to take out Orig, making it....3:2:1.

EXACTLY THE SAME AS BEFORE!

Thus, we stand to make no advantage from lynching mafOrig since the likely outcome is only as good as the likely outcome of a

mislynch

[vollkan]

Your basis of why lynching Orig is bad seems to hang on the Sk Nking him. Again, stop assuming you know every move a person will make. I clearly remember you saying at one point and time that if Orig NKs we lynch him tomorrow... So logically, the real Sk would set him up by NKing someone else (Maybe me >< Ahhhh!!!!) In my mind that kills two birds with one stone, he can frame Orig and get rid of the tracker!

Not true. If Orig is mafia, for the sake of your argument:

If there are 2 NKs, unless the situation is 4:1:1, then we have no motivation to lynch Orig since he could be the SK. He might also not be the SK but, you see, we don't know that and, thus, we can't lynch him. Hence, we are more likely to lynch elsewhere which places the hidden SK at risk himself. The SK needs to get rid of mafOrig.

Now on the other hand, while you only seem to look at the worst case scenario, I like the best case one myself, that tomorrow sees us at 4-1-1... A much better situation then we are in now don't you think? You keep saying the SK's job is to eliminate mafia, then why don't you think the SK will hit a mafia tonight? Because you may be wrong? Oh thats brilliant... "Guys! I could be wrong! So listen to me here!" No... Unless you bring me a good solid reason why lynching a 100% known to be mafia is bad for the town that does not involve what the NK could/would be, I may drop Orig on my list... The way I see it, we lynch a mafia, we did a good job, great day, point for us, good thing!

I cannot provide that sort of justification. My basis for not lynching mafOrig being bad is that the SK needs to NK mafOrig, or else the SK is gutting their own hopes of success.

Also I keep seeing that you are worried about a mislynch. If I believe Dybeck's claim, then I would be sure Orig was mafia, and thus we would not mislynch. And that will more or less prevent half of your bad scenarios right there! It all seems to be a win-win in my mind here...

You are being simplistic here and ignoring the numbers.

If Orig is mafia, he will be NKed. Lynching him places the rest of us in danger of a random potshot at night by the SK. The SK will be targeting mafia, but I seriously doubt any of you actually want to peg things on the scumdar of a SK. Keeping Orig alive gives the SK a guaranteed successful target.

If Orig is SK, lynching him is immediate LYLO.

Oh yeah! If the odds become the same either way, why not not take the risk of the SK not doing what you think he should, when we can play it safe and eliminate a mafia today without fuss? It seems kinda anti-town to see a mafia member, tell the SK to kill him, then randomly lynch another player!

Not at all.

If Orig is mafia, the SK is going to kill tonight. The SK is going to benefit most from the death of a mafioso. Thus, giving the SK Orig to kill hands him the opportunity to help himself without presenting us with risk.

See, if we lynch Orig, we put the random shot in the SK's hands. If we don't lynch Orig, we all but ensure that the SK does not NK a townie. A townie NK is bad for both the SK and us, because the SK benefits most from a scum NK.

Lynching away from mafOrig today gives us the best chance of killing 2 mafia by tomorrow morning.

~~~~~~~~
As I have said, I think Orig is the SK. However, my "Don't Lynch Orig" policy is just as effective if he is mafia.

[vollkan]

Seriously... why not? Who would you expect me to investigate? I had a quick readthrough, orig looked like he was going to be today's lynch candidate, so I thought I'd find out what he was. I really don't understand how correctly choosing a target is a scumtell. It's not like my claim is one of those "I'm a cop but oops sorry... I don't have any results for you" or "oops sorry... I investigated the dead guy". I have a concrete, take it to the bank, test my role for 100% certain tonight, role claim. Which you're ignoring.

You're expanding this story the more we go on.

For kicks: What made you figure that Orig was going to be today's lynch?

As for the 100% thing, let's think for a second.

If you are mafia, then you score an Orig lynch today and knock off a townie tonight putting us in 5:3 lylo. Then you get can argue tomorrrow that you were the actual cop because Orig was scum and that you weren't killed because the scum was wifoming the the town, etc.

Why not? What the hell good would it do to bring it up first thing in the morning and have a 10-second day? We'd have nothing to go on tomorrow unless I got another good investigation.

Case. Not investigation. Shaft.ed's question was why didn't you actually make like a PBPA of dybeck trying to prove he was scum, rather than just saying "Orig visited someone and they are dead."

I don't need a case. I have a rock-solid investigation. If you wanted a case against him, you could try reading EVERY SINGLE POST I WROTE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. But seriously. I don't need to look for subtle scum tells. I have an investigation result.

This is a poor attitude to take. You could look back over his posts for scumlinks etc.

Because Korlash is almost certain scum too.

Shaft.ed was obv SK, Orig is obv scum and now Korlash is "almost certain scum". This is making me headdesky.

I thought I was at L-1. My mistake. I'd been itching to do it for ages anyway.

I can't argue this because it is a subjective point.

Huh? I've been voting him like... all day...

No. As shaft.ed said:

The most obviously wrong aspect of your claiming post was the fact that you didn't even vote for originality. It seems that coming out in such a situation one would want to get votes moving in the direction of your guilty target. Yet you neglected to do so, were you flustered when making up content for that post?

Actually, I've said repeatedly who I think the scum groups are. Over and over and over again. It's orig and korlash, with probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK. Seriously, search my posts. I've said this a lot.

And why do you suspect them?

orig: 100%
korlash: 90%
shaft.ed: 80%
Lucienne: 70%
Elias: 30%
vollkan: 20%
Gemelli: 10%
AlyG: 0%

Your certainty, both ways, is mind-boggling.

I'm not even going to bother criticising this; it pretty much speaks for itself.

I'm not really lurking, but I am pretty bored of reading the extensive posts in this game, that seem to revolve around shaft.ed desperately trying to save his scummate, and the rest of the town agreeing that lynching a scum is a bad idea.

You're completely contradicting yourself. I am the one arguing the most emphatically against lynching Orig, but you have me at just 20%.

Lynching orig is not a bad idea. That's something shaft.ed has made you believe. The only number that matters is that if we mislynch today, we are at 4.3.1 going into night. If the SK hits town, it's game over. That's it. Bottom line. Any other maths you've read and believed detracts from this main story.

We need to lynch orig.

dybeck is using numerical analysis to fool you.

Mislynch = 4:3:1.
MafNK = 3:3:1.

In this situation, if the SK kills a townie the mafia win. Hence, the SK would be idiotic to NK. Of course, if Orig is mafia, the SK can safely kill Orig to make it 3:2:1.

If there is no SK killing of mafOrig
We open at 3:3:1. That's LYLO.
Maflynch = 3:2:1
MafNK = 2:2:1

Again, if SK hits town, he loses so the SK would be stupid to NK. It's another LYLO

Maflynch = 2:1:1
This can go any way. We need them to take each other out in the cross fire. They both need to kill the other to win, but hope that the other does not kill them.

This assuming wcs all the way down, with the mafia never hitting the SK. To maximise their own chances, they would want to get rid of the SK to get a clean LYLO with just the town.

Really, they don't. We cannot lynch town today.

See above.

shaft.ed and korlash are playing this town like nothing i've ever seen. Read back for yourself.

Why shaft.ed and not me?

[vollkan]

I have a hard time following you here, Vollkan. Dybeck could also be the SK -- less likely than OrigSK, but still a plausible scenario -- does this concern you? In fact, ANY of us could feasibly be the SK. Saying "we don't know that [player X isn't the SK] and, thus, we can't lynch him" seems like an argument you could apply to eliminate ANYONE from lynch consideration.

dybeck's actions are inconsistent with a SK. Think about it:
Drawing attention to himself; claiming cop dubiously.
He is playing in such a way that, if he were SK, would quickly cost him the game.

Don't get me wrong, he could be the SK BUT I think it significantly less likely than him being mafia.

Couldn't you make the same argument to argue that we shouldn't lynch mafDybeck, though? I suspect that regardless of whether he's mafia or cop, if we leave him alive today he's pretty much a goner tonight.

No, actually. Dybeck is not confirmed mafia to the SK, unlike Orig. That makes things more uncertain than I am willing to gamble on.

I'm fine with assessing lynch candidates using the categories I listed in post 1335. But I think that we need to approach this decision from looking at our candidates along three dimensions: (1) most likely to be mafia, (2) least likely to be the SK, and (3) most likely to be scum overall. Looking at just one of those factors independent of the others seems to give us a limited perspective.

I see shaft.ed has already looked at this in full detail. So read my responses to him to get my perspective. If I do not respond to something of shaft.ed's, it means that I have no objections to it.

If you want to call people playing this town as those advocating against an orig lynch, as this seems to be your scum theory, then you would be hard pressed not to include vollkan in there. I'm really at a loss as to where Korlash comes into this.

I suspect dybeck is trying rather poorly to garner some favor from vollkan.

Doing so with such logical inconsistancies is bound to fail.

That was my feel as well. I present the biggest threat to him so he wants to buddy up to me.

Lynching dybeck:

[/u]

If dybeck is mafia:

This is, to me, the best possible outcome of today for the town. First of all, we have taken out a mafioso, which is the top priority of the town. Second, the mafia will be reduced to 2 or possibly even 1 member depending on the setup. As such a confirmed killing role will be a serious threat to them and I believe this will force their hand to killing orig. Although we obviously aren't garuanteed this outcome, it is much more likely than if there are 3 surviving mafia. While this could hurt the town if orig comes up vig, it at least removes the SK threat. Town goes into tommorow with a likely 5:2:0 ratio, wcs 4:2:1. Likely dybeck partners in this scenario would be Gemelli (self-professed), Lucienne (quick orig vote after cop claim) and Elias for this:
dybeck wrote:

Elias... you must have an opinion on it... help me out here!

Likely town would be AlyG (confirmed tracker, maintained dybeck vote through claim), Korlash (two L-2 votes on dybeck and dybeck's claim of Korlash being scum), me (I prefer a dybeck lynch, picked apart the cop claim and am being OMGUS'd by dybeck now).

Your numbers are off.

Lynch mafdybeck = 5:2:1
MafNK town = 4:2:1
--If SK NKs town = 3:2:1 (wcs)
--If SK NKs mafia = 4:1:1
MafNK SKOrig = 5:2:0
--If SK NKs town = 4:2:0
--If SK NKs maf = 5:1:0 (bcs)

Numerically, shaft.ed, the wcs is 3:2:1, not 4:2:1. You were assuming that the SK would not NK. I think it is to the SK's disadvantage if he does NK, since if he hits town he dramatically increases the mafia's power. However, I am just accounting for the possibilities.

The most likely scenarios, in my view, are 4:2:1 or 5:2:0. It depends on whether or not the mafia feels threatened by the SK.


Also, is there any reason why I am not mentioned at the end of your post?

[vollkan]

I just realised that my post got cut off...

If orig comes up mafia:
This scenario is good because as we've stated again and again lynching scum is the best outcome for today. The difficulty will come in from what about dybeck? If he's the SK he's known ever since the AlyG tracker incident that originality is mafia (any light bulbs going off?). Thus he knows his cop claim will be substantiated once orig dies. But dybeck could also be our incredibly incompetent cop. We won't know come tommorow which is the case. Since the SK has not been outed I find it more likely he will kill if orig is lynched as mafia thus we have a lot of possible D3 outcomes:
3:2:1 (59.52%)
4:1:1 (35.71%)
5:1:0 (4.76%)
So we have a larger chance of being in a very precarious LyLo, with some decent scenarios stemming from the SK NK getting lucky. Orig's scummates are similar to above. I'd still say dybeck is the likely SK, depending on his results tommorow, and maybe one of the lurkers or Korlash could fit here.

The only other thing I wanted to say is that if Orig is mafia, we stand to benefit most from not lynching him.

The SK knows Orig is mafia. Thus, whilst we still run the gambit of 3:2:1 by keeping Orig alive, it at least puts the more random death in our hands, because we can be sure the SK is going to take out Orig.

What I mean is that if Orig is mafia there are going to be 3 deaths by tomorrow morning:
1) Orig
2) Mafia NK (most likely a town)
3) SK NK (will be aimed at mafia)

If we lynch Orig, the SK takes a random shot, guided only by their own scumdar.

If we do not lynch Orig, the SK shoots at Orig and we get to lynch on a collective, deliberated basis, which is more likely to hit a mafioso in my view.

[vollkan]

I see where you're going with that, but again: one could say the same thing about orig, if to a lesser extent. I just want to be clear that we don't have any guarantees here.

Well, look back over the deliberation we had over whether or not Orig's actions made sense for a SK.

He was caught red-handed by AlyG. He would have no idea what roles existed except that a vig probably was not in the game. RB or something like that would probably be safer, but it is not inconceivable that a SK might panic and claim vig, particularly given that it was unlikely to be counter-claimed.

This is an issue which is very much open to speculation. Unlike numbers-based decisions, the likelihood of Orig being SK vs. vig is purely on judgment.

By and large though, dybeck's actions are less consistent with a SK than Orig.

The sensible move for an SK in dybeck's position would be to try and get a non-Orig mafia lynch, which has a higher likelihood of hitting mafia than his own blind NK, and to then NK Orig at night.

In claiming cop, all a SK dybeck would do is make himself a direct threat to the mafia and make his own NK more likely. Additionally, given the obvious flaws in his claim, it doesn't seem like the sort of thing that a purely self-interested SK would do.

That being said, I have been convinced me that dybeck is a smarter lynch choice for today. If he does turn up cop, as shaft.ed has pointed out, we will be in a tough situation D3. But I also believe that getting his alignment confirmed one way or the other is critical information that we really need in order to set a strategy for the next day.

If dybeck comes up cop, all we learn is that Orig is either mafia or SK.

Mislynch = 4:3:1
MafNK town = 3:3:1 LsaL (Lynch SK and lose)
--SK NK town = 2:3:1 LOSS
--SK NK mafia = 3:2:1 Messy
MafNK SK = 4:3:0 LYLO
--SK NK town = 3:3:0 LOSS
--SK NK mafia = 4:2:0 LYLO

Now, what we see here is that the SK's best move is to not NK if we mislynch (eg. if dybeck is cop). Killing a townie will ALWAYS cause a mafia win. Killing a mafioso will not improve things.

Thus, the most likely opening situation is 3:3:1. If Orig is the SK, then I hazard to say 4:3:0 is actually more likely.

Reason:
The mafia may decide that a clean 4:3:0 LYLO is better for them than a 3:3:1 situation, where the SK presents a threat.

Both 3:3:1 and 4:3:0 are LYLO, but the latter has less prospect of the SK wreaking havoc in a x:1:1 situation or similar.

[vollkan]

Dybeck, if the real cop counter-claimed, wouldn't they just get NKed?

[vollkan]

One question on your numbers: can you explain why 4:2:0 is LYLO? I understand that it's a bad situation -- a mislynch is mafia win -- but the difference between 4:2:0 and 4:3:0 is that in the former situation, a no-lynch extends the game for the town (though resulting in certain LYLO the next day).

Apologies for that...I tend to never consider No Lynches as a viable possibility. I know they

can

be useful, in certain circumstances, but I plan and reason on the assumption that we will be lynching.

So, yes, 4:2 is not LYLO technically, but it is LYLO where I assume lynching as the default scenario.

Also, WRT dybeck's request, do we have any guarantees that this game includes a cop at all?

No.

Cops are very VERY common (I haven't been in a closed setup Mini to date which hasn't had one), but there is no guarantee.

I think, however, that the existence of a tracker, another investigative role, probably makes cop

less likely

,

I am, however, very nervous about things given the prevalence of cops.

That said, dybeck is our best lead as a mafioso candidate and his behaviour pretty much speaks for itself.

[vollkan]

Actually I was thinking about this and we will still have a good shot of knowing originality's alignment even if dybeck comes up cop. As we've said repeatedly, the SK very much needs to NK mafia. If dybeck is cop and orig is mafia then we are garuanteed a SK in the game that almost definitely attempt to NK orig. Only ways that this doesn't happen is if orig is a NK immune godfather or if the mafia have some type of Doc or roleblocker that has found the SK in the game. While these scenarios are plausible, I don't find them likely. So if orig does survive the night after the dybeck cop claim, I'd find it quite likely he is the SK.

Assuming Orig is mafia for the purposes of reasoning,

That got me thinking: The SK really hurts themself if they choose not to NK Orig because, by keeping Orig alive, that suggests that he is the SK, which is a disincentive to lynch him whilst there is the prospect of entering LYLO with the mafia.

I can see at least 2 advantages (there are probably several more) to the SK in getting rid of Orig tonight:
1) The SK is less informed today than they will be on N3. Thus, the SK's best bet is to target Orig tonight. On N3, their scumdar will more likely be more accurate and, thus, they will have more likelihood of hitting a mafioso. If they take a judgment (non-Orig) shot tonight, they have a higher probability of hitting a townie, which means the SK squanders the opportunity to likely be able to NK two mafia.
2) As a flow-on from the above, keeping mafOrig alive means that it is more likely that there are more mafia to plot on N2. Making it more likely the SK will die.

The SK needs to whittle down the mafia before they have a hope of getting to majority and, thus, the SK needs to NK mafOrig at the soonest possible opportunity (ie. tonight).

[vollkan]

To summarise everybody's suspicions at this point:

I am going by people's most recent posts. I don't pretend for this to be correct entirely (other than for myself), but it should provide a good overview of things.

vollkan

AlyG

= 0% (he

could

be mafia). +20% if dybeck is cop. I would need to reread

shaft.ed

= 20% -5% if dybeck is mafia. +10% if dybeck is cop.

Elias

= 65%. +10% if dybeck is mafia. -5% if dybeck is cop.

Gemelli

= 55%. +15% if dybeck is mafia. -5% if dybeck is cop.

Korlash

= 60%. -5% if dybeck is mafia. +10% if dybeck is cop.

Lucienne

= 55%. +10% if dybeck is mafia.

dybeck

= 80%

Orig

= 100% (75% on behaviour). Assumed SK.

Elias_the_thief

Scum

dybeck (mafia)
Orig (SK)

Likely scum

Lucienne
Gemelli
Korlash

Town

shaft.ed
vollkan

Korlash

In descending order of scumminess

1) dybeck
2) Orig
3) Elias
4) Vollkan
5) Gemelli
6) shaft.ed
7) AlyG and Lucienne

AlyG

Gemelli

I am unsure and do not want to guess. Gemelli, please post your list in any format.

Lucienne

scummy

Korlash

"Not anti-town"

vollkan
shaft.ed

All else is unclear. Please clarify Lucienne

Orig

dybeck: 100%.
Lucienne: 85%
Korlash: 60%
vollkan: 10%
shaft.ed: 10%
AlyG: 0%
Gemelli: 5% .
originality: 0%
Elias: 50%.

shaft.ed

No coherent list.

He did list scum as:
1. originality
2. dybeck
2. Oman

Please make such a list when you can shaft.ed

dybeck

orig: 100%
korlash: 90%
shaft.ed: 80%
Lucienne: 70%
Elias: 30%
vollkan: 20%
Gemelli: 10%
AlyG: 0%

[vollkan]

I cross-posted.

I'm very pleased I got that post in on time.

[vollkan]

Mods generally don't give "extra time". Twilight usually ends when the mod notices the hammer and locks the thread down.

[vollkan]

Damn. We lose shaft.ed the player and our cop. On the other hand, I was right about dybeck.

First up, there is now an increased likelihood of Orig actually being a vig. Two reasons:
1) He did not NK (thankyou Orig)
2) He hammered dybeck very quickly, suggesting he knew dybeck was BSing about the guilty investigation.

Now, updated scumdar (reflecting the figures from yesterday):

vollkan

AlyG

= 0%

Elias

= 75%

Gemelli

= 70

Korlash

= 55%.

Lucienne

= 55%.

Orig

= 65%

Now, Dybeck-Elias:

My favourite quote of the game so far:

Elias... you must have an opinion on it... help me out here!

Also, dybeck's last scumdar:

orig: 100%
korlash: 90%
shaft.ed: 80%
Lucienne: 70%
Elias: 30%
vollkan: 20%
Gemelli: 10%
AlyG: 0%

My read is this: Orig is at 100% because we now know Orig is a rival killing faction to dybeck. shaft.ed is at 80% because shaft.ed is a very useful townie who dybeck wants dead. Lucienne is at 70% possibly, as Orig said, as distancing; I am unsure of this. Elias is at 30% so that he appears reasonably pro-town, without being imperiled. I am at 20% is a shameless effort to buddy up and Gemelli is at 10% as an effort to embroil a townie should dybeck turn up scum.

1. No kill
2. Oman
3. Vollkan
4. Lucienne

More possible distancing to Lucienne.

Certainly, if I read back and ignore everything that's been said, but ignore posts by you, Oman, originality and Lucienne, it's amazing how pro-town this group of people looks.

Elias and Gemelli look most pro-town. How very interesting.

I've stated categorically that I suspect orig, Oman and you are mafia and that Lucienne might be SK. AlyG is town but I stand to be corrected on anyone else. Is that un-wishy-washy enough?

More of the same

Oman never once commented on Gemelli outside of these references. However, dybeck did make a fairly rabid attack on Dr. BS in 222 and continued this in 286.

In 95, dybeck very politely answered a question by Elias. In 981:

And hey Elias, welcome back!!

Aww...scumlove <3

So yeah, unsurprisingly

Vote: Elias_the_thief

[vollkan]

Sorry, Korlash.

In your case, it looks like he was just trying to get rid of an easy target, though it could be bussing.

And yes, any investigation clues will earn you a cookie.

[vollkan]

First up, question, AlyG....RESULTS?!?!

Second, Elias, you should know that I am not the type to vote without reasons. I just wanted to get the dybeck relationship stuff out of the way first, before we get to the bottom of things.

I shall address your post and then give my case:

Alright. The first reason seems to hold up, though the second one is iffy, and I still feel that I presented a good case for him being SK yesterday.

Indeed. I gave him a nice 65%. The point is that I am somewhat less convinced of him being SK.

I am still going to plan on the belief that our situation is one of 4:2:1, but now I have grounds for feeling more confident in Orig.

I don't have an definate explanation for this, but the thing that I believe might hve made him say this is that I was the one who supported the Orig lynch for the longest, and because I held that I believed Orig to be SK (which I still do now). Thus, he chose to appeal to the person most likely to support his opinion.

Ouch, bad answer already. Someone's reaching for excuses.

This would be entirely valid, were in not for the fact that dybeck made that call for help in #541. By that stage, you had not actually said anything at all that entire day other than:

Caught up to page 15. finishing the reread tomorrow.

and

back, and rereading. content later, hopefully.

You can do better than that

And my read on that is that it's for the most part wifom. There are about 3 or 4 instances where you assume that he is doing one thing or another, and that's not reliable at all. You're assuming theres something wrong with me being at 30%, but never really attack me.

Yup, it's wifom. I am not basing my reasoning on it, but I am interpreting it in light of what I know scum characteristically do.

Well, what about me did YOU find suspicious, besides this supposed connection to Dy? I havent seen you post any independant reasons why I shouldnt be considered town.

It's coming at the bottom of this post. Don't wet yourself.

All I see is a consistent standpoint on who he claimed was mafia. It would be a tell if he changed his view, but it would be a tell if he didnt. So this is a null point.

Well, we did see him change his views.

Towards the end he slotted shaft.ed as obv scum and me as obv town, presumably in an effort to buddy up to me in the hopes of winning points off me or, in the alternative, flinging as much suspicion onto me as possible.

So whats the point here?

That dybeck was quite against BS, which suggests to an extent that he may not be scum with Gemelli.

...what? Are you honestly telling me that this is a scumtell?

Humour, Elias (and reaction-testing)

And now: my observations about you.

* Elias enters the game in 23, with a L-3 vote on Orig for his silly suggestion to lynch lurkers. Going after an exceedingly obvious target. Elias then, in his next post, admits it was just a newbie tell then goes after Oman for bandwagoning (oh the irony!)
* 124 you consider wagonning VP, no explanation as to why though.
* A whole lot of nothing for some time
* 988, echoing dybeck, you go after Orig.
* 1021: This is where you dissected my dybeck case. This is important. As I hinted at yesterday, the strange thing was that whilst you conceded most things were scummy or weird, to varying degrees, you pretty much found it lacking. The other important details around this time are:
1) You were clear that "this is not supposed to be a defense." Which is odd. If you were just deconstructing a case, why would I have any reason to deem you being defensive?
2) A few posts later you do the "its alright, but its not too convincing. I would probably be willing to vote Dybeck at deadline".
* 1059, you concede how bad the numbers are, and yet in 1078 and 1081 you persist in trying to argue in favour of lynching Orig.
* 1227:

Barring myself, and people that I find are likely town (vollkan and shafted) I'm left with:
"Korlash
Gemelli
Lucienne"
Assuming we have 3 scum, there is our scumgroup. If we have only two, or on the off chance that Orig is a mafioso who got caught making the nightkill for his group, then one of those is not scum, obviously. I'm not sure how you get more scum tells off lucienne then Korlash, when lucienne has posted so little. Could you elaborate some? Surely that one post is not your entire case?

No mention of dybeck. Avoidance

My opinion on the dybeck claim? I dunno yet. From one perspective, Dybeck as doc doesnt want to claim early because there is already incriminating evidence against orig, and claiming isnt necessary. Therefore the late claim isnt so outlandish.
On the other hand, Dybeck as mafia can make a pretty good bet that Orig is sk, (or maybe theyre both mafia, to rule nothing out) and the claim gives him reason for a heavy push as well as credibility tomorrow. Even if Orig turns out to be vig, Dy can claim that he might be paranoid or insane cop. So it's up in the air.

I dont see any reason to seriously disbelieve his claim right now, so for now its a tentative yes.

How marvelously ambivalent.
* Then, in 1274, as the wheels finally turn against dybeck, you jump ship and declare him your preferred lynch.
* And of course, then we have that enormous pissing match with Korlash.
* Right near the end of the day, you chime in with your first actual attack on dybeck, concluding "So yeah. Dybecks scum."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Do not get me wrong, if this wagon gets any larger right now I will unvote promptly. The thing is, Elias, you are my number one suspect right now and I have no qualms about voting accordingly.

As for my unusual brevity, let's not forget that you have had a mere 57 posts this entire game. I have made 250. There's significantly less content on you and you have gotten through this game more or less by lurking.

What I have seen, I don't like.

[vollkan]

Ok guys, i'm so happy to be alive, and during night 2 i tracked Lucienne and got NO RESULT i guess this means she is a confirmed townie?

Thankyou for responding

It doesn't actually confirm anything to us. It can mean one of three things:
1) She has a power that she did not use
2) She is vanilla
3) She is mafia, but did not carry out the mafia's kill

1 is very unlikely so, unfortunately, if she is not mafia, you have just confirmed her as vanilla to the mafia.

[vollkan]

I'm puzzled as to the mafia's choice of NK last night, though. We have a confirmed killing role and a confirmed tracker, and yet they chose to target shaft.ed? Yes, he was everyone's consensus for top pro-town player, but was he more of a threat than two confirmed power roles? I can't find any posts where he breadcrumbed or even implied cop. So something doesn't add up here.

Two possibilities:
1) shaft.ed left a breadcrumb which they found and we didn't
2) *More likely* They chose shaft.ed since he had no suspicion on him. I mean, my hunting of dybeck was furious, but that's precisely why people might suspect me. Along with my peculiar tactics, aggression and so on. Notice that Eliasthought of possible FoSing me because I am being aggressive to him.

Plus, there is a WIFOM game in not killing power roles.

To be honest, once we learned that Dybeck was mafia, I expected to have to spend a good portion of today defending my devil's-advocate support of Dybeck. If any of you have questions about my posts that you want me to address, please let me know; I will answer them as promptly and honestly as I can.

I will get to you in time.

[vollkan]

As an aside, I find it rather amusing that this is the second time that I have led the charge to get a mafioso killed and then moved onto to argue against you.

Damn right I'm reaching for excuses. This isn't my post, I don't know why he did it. Therefore anything I say will be "reaching for excuses" as you put it. Anyways, in the context of what I had posted, my point still makes sense. I was pretty much the only one to not put down his idea, and he knew that I still needed to post something.

It doesn't make sense. You had said nothing on the topic and yet dybeck randomly asked for your help.

Ouch, now that is a bad answer. Any good mafia player knows that all scum act differently. To say you "know what scum characteristically do", especially when you've played in so few games, is pretty sketchy reasoning. For instance, were I scum in his position, I would make my list for the most part the same as an obvious townie. That way, the list looks legitimate while I'm alive, then completely useless once I die. I'm not saying this is what he did, I'm just saying that there are many, many, different reasons for the way that list is. If you're not basing your reasoning on it, including it in your case makes me suspicious that you are trying purposefully to inflate a case that you know is weak.

Yes, all scum do act differently; my answer is not affected by that.

Dybeck had consistent attitudes towards everybody, except where he went rabidly against shaft.ed and buddied himself to me right near the end.

You ask why I bother to include if I am not basing my reasoning on it. Remember Oman's list of vig targets in Mini 486. I kept referring to it throughout the game even though everything I was saying about it was this same sort of wifom speculation. The fact is that these lists are valuable, not as bases for accusations, but as ways of getting a perspective on things.

The interpretation of dybeck's list is consistent with how I have read his attitudes towards people overall. I think he is most likely to have been scum with (in order of likelihood) yourself, Gemelli, Lucienne or Korlash. Thus, that is how I

currently

rationalise the list.

Simply the fact that you list two possible incentives makes me more skepticle(sp?) of your point. Regardless of why he did it, all this does is show further evidence to him being scum, which has already been proven. I'm uncertain as to why this is incriminating to me.

You said I had showed nothing, other than that he had a consistent outlook. What I was showing was that he had changed his attitude in regards to myself and shaft.ed. It does not incriminate you, but it suggests to me the level at which he was operating. That helps me rationalise his actions. It doesn't relate to you directly, but it relates to how I interpret dybeck and, thus, how I see his relations to you.

I'm not sure why. Three possible incentives for attacking BS: Distancing, bussing, going with the flow. To say that Dybeck attacking BS means that he is not aligned with Gemelli is nothing more then an interpretation of a wifom action, and certainly nothing incriminating.

Hence, why I said "to an extent". You seem to be importing a much greater degree of certainty onto what I am saying than I actually expressed. That point had nothing to do with you; I was merely noting something which ran against the grain of dybeck-Gemelli.

1) An attempt to lynch a lurker is probably the best lead you have on page one. I don't see why attacking LAL(urkers) is a point against me.

Simple. You should know that LALurkers is considered legitimate by a significant proportion of people (myself among them). Thus, I find it rather odd that you would go after someone for proposing LAL; it's very easy to accuse an LALer of being scum.

2) What exactly makes going after an easy target suspicious? As a townie, I saw this as a relevant lead to look into, and applied pressure. As scum, I could've attempted to fit in by doing the same, but have we honestly gotten so wifom that now what began as a mafiosos attempt to look like townie has now become a scumtell and nothing more?

You are experienced enough to know that LAL is not a scumtell, but that it is very easy to draw suspicion onto LALers. That's why I don't like the fact that you went after Orig for LALing.

3) I did not just "admit it was a town tell". Orig defended himself, and I felt the defense was sufficient. Way to misrepresent me.

Hence why I said:

admits it was just a

newbie tell

Way to misrepresent me

4) I didn't just attack Oman for bandwagoning. I voted him based off of inconsistency. I added that his vote seemed opportunistic as an afterthought. As a matter of fact, the only time I mention bandwagoning in my entire post is when I say "there is nothing wrong with bandwagoning". seriously man, what are you smoking?

This is a language issue.

I thought you going after Oman for his opportunistic wagoning, given that you had attacked him for the -2 thing.

Come on Vollkan, you know my position on bandwagoning from our last game. To clarify, it is as follows "bandwagoning is good stuff". Bandwagoning is extremely beneficial to town as long as it doesnt get out of hand. Thus I asked for a votecount, to assure myself that I wasnt just piling on close to his lynch.

This explanation covers the accusation so I can't argue with it.

"echoing dybeck"? are you kidding me? I painstakingly investigated the posts that Orig had made, wrote up a post, lost it, and posted another shorter version anyways. I'm fairly certain that most of those points were original ones. For the record, agreeing with someone on a point for different reasons =/= echoing them.

In 988 you attacked dybeck's assertion that he had a gut feeling against CC and noted that he had assumed SK. Dybeck had been making much the same line of attack regarding "You really think that a pro-town vig could possibly have found carrotcake the scummiest player yesterday?" consistently (and repetitively)

To correct you, I thought the majority were wierd actions, not scummy. There is a difference. There were really one two good points in the case, thus I found it lacking. You yourself admitted in the next post that it was lacking. So why is it a scumtell that I am the one who's opinion you agreed with?

Let me run through the points:
1)

Dybeck's certainty

- I said weird, but not a massive scumtell; though, I did not like it. Your response was that it was weird but not a scumtell, since mafia wouldn't know who the SK was.
2)

Dybeck's "don't lynch SK shaft.ed"

- I said confusing and you thought a nulltell
3)

Prima facie acceptance of AlyG

- I thought scummy and you agreed.
4)

The fact dybeck said "it's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday" despite having opposed the orig wagon

- I thought this was obvious hypocrisy; you dismissed it as weird.
5)

Dybeck's repetitive craplogic

- Again, obviously scummy to me and you asked for clarification as to what of his arguments I meant.
6)

Singular focus on Orig

- I took as self-evidently scummy; you said "That's not too bad. Town wants that just as much as scum at this point."
7)

That dybeck was only hunting SK and ignoring mafia

- We agreed this was very scummy
8)

Wishy-washy attitudes

- Again, I took as self-evident. You asked for me to elaborate
9)

Dybeck shifting on Oman being the SK

- Me = Self-evident. You wanted clarification
10)

Readiness to hammer Oman, including without asking for claim

- Me = self-evidently scummy. You took it as "Bad town play or obvious scum play. It could be either. Thus I say unto you: wifom."
11)

Dybeck pre-empting the hammer being a townie

- Me = self-evident. You took it as "weird".
12)

The fact Orig would NK if Oman was SK lynched

- You gave this as a maybe and gave an alternative explanation.
13)

The fact dybeck never FoSed Oman all day but was ready to hammer

- Me = Self-evident. You "kind of a tell, but I dont think its too strong. "
14)

Certainty

- Me = self-evident. You = "Normally I dont see certainty as a scum tell (look at just completed 486 where I was certain hermit was scum, and we were both town)."

So yes, that makes 9 points against dybeck which you downplayed; and 3 that you asked for further information on. At the time, I was doubting the case myself and your attacks galvanised my uncertainty.

I didn't want it to be considered a defense because:
1) I had not fully decided on whatr I thought of Dybeck, so calling it a "defense" would be an overstatement.
2)I still needed some things clarified, so I wasn't even sure whether I supported your single post yet.
3) You know very well I'm conscious of making scumtells as town. I didnt want to look suspect if he came up scum.

As you probably guessed, number 3) was what I was getting at. That I thought you were trying to avoid being seen to be defending him.

2) A few posts later you do the "its alright, but its not too convincing. I would probably be willing to vote Dybeck at deadline".

ok. Whats your point?

It's ambivalence, which as you know I consider scummy.

I was arguing the actual reasoning behind it, but I never once in those posts said that I wanted to lynch orig that day. I simply noted that I was weary of trusting anti town factions to do what we expected them too.

I know, but in the context it was against the "Say No to Lynching Orig" position. Again, ambivalence. You should have been clearer that you did not want Orig lynched, but that these were issues.

Um...I was going off of your post's list of uncertains...if you look at that post, you already have dybeck written off as cop or mafia, which was my opinion at the time. I was simply speculating as to the uncertains.

Ah okay.

Yup. Believe it or not, I as town did not know the truth of his claim, and thus gave a tentative yes.

For someone with your critical powers, the fact that you even gave a tentative yes is scummy, hence the ambivalence thing.

I "jump ship"? what do you mean?
anyways, is it really spectcaular that I post dybeck as my preferred lynch after being pressured into naming a preferred lynch?

Well, your post has certainly changed my mind on the Dybeck claim. Theres a lot of inconsistency there, and the motivation for scum to fake claim cop there is certainly plentiful. So, I'd put my opinion on the Dybeck claim as a tentative no, as opposed to the tentative yes that was there before.

My perception of you that day was in these stages:
1) For Orig lynch
2) Professing to be against Orig lynch but still criticising the sense of keeping him alive
3) Critical the dybeck case
4) Ambivalent on dybeck being cop, though leaning in favour
5) Dybeck isn't cop (deathbed conversion)

/not a scumtell.

I didn't say the pissing match was a scumtell. I just listed it for completeness.

I dont believe that was my first attack. Regardless, /not a scumtell.

It was the first hard stance that I noticed. And no, it isn't a scumtell per se, but it speaks of last minute distancing.

If you will simply unvote if another vote joins yours, whats the point of voting me? Do you expect me to crack under the pressure? Please don't make me laugh.

I think you are the most likely scum. Thus, I vote you to show I am serious. I don't even contemplate using it to pressure someone like you.

Good for you. Let me remind you that for the majority of that time I was accepted as replacing out of this game. I was already out as far as I was concerned, why post? It was not til Cicero's thread in MD that I heard that no replacement had been found and I came back. I missed like 30 pages. Blaming me for having less post then you is in VERY bad taste, and I thought I wouldnt see something like that from you.

You've completely misunderstood me.

What I was saying was that of the few posts you had made, I had problems with a significant proportion of them. I used myself as a comparator in the sense of I had problems with a large number of your 57, despite it being a small number of problematic posts relative to the number of things that Gemelli had in his PBPA of me.

I don't hold your number of posts against you.

[vollkan]

Ok I checked "some" of the thread... did not see anything that looked like any sort of investigation clues from Shaft.ed...

That's alright.

As for my feelings on Orig and AlyG... They may have been afraid of a Doc... Which could explain why AlyG is alive. And they may have been baning on Orig listening to us and not NKing... So in my mind both their claims could still be true. One question.. why would an SK not kill? Doesn't this further help his Vig case?

There are wifom reasons why they might have left AlyG and Orig alive, and fear of doc. Along with player-based reasons, like the fact that shaft.ed was the most town looking yesterday (since he doesn't resort to using my strange tactics).

And I don't fully understand this Elias case you have Vollkan. I have to reread and see what in fact makes him a possible mafia all of a sudden. Comment back on it later...

He's always been a "possible mafia". He has the strongest links with dybeck and I intend to debate him on this.

[vollkan]

Oh yes, I am pleased to say that I may have found a clue as to shaft.ed's investigation results.

I am remained tight-lipped until we hear something substantial from everybody.

Moreover, I would appreciate it if everybody listed each remaining player (excluding Orig and AlyG) in order of suspicion.

Mine should be obvious from the percentage thing, but anyway:
1) Elias
2) Gemelli
3T) Korlash
3T) Lucienne

[vollkan]

Now this is just intriguing.

In descending order of scumminess

1) dybeck
2) Orig
3) Elias
4) Vollkan
5) Gemelli
6) shaft.ed
7) AlyG and Lucienne

Korlash, on what basis have Gemelli and myself moved to the top of your suspicion list?

[vollkan]

I assume by the "this" thing, that was your suspicions, Orig.

Okay, I totally did not expect to be alive right now. But I understand the mafia's play, not offing me or AlyG (scared of an unpredictable doctor etc) and instead killing shaft.ed, arguably the town's best player. I suppose they might have seen some cop-tell from him based on his reactions about dybec's claim, but I think its more likely he was just killed for being helpful.

I agree with this. Even though shaft.ed and I agreed on most things, he had attracted no suspicion because his playstyle is much more stable than mine (in that shaft.ed did not do things solely for the purpose of judging reactions).

[vollkan]

I think I had a new list in there too correcting the one you made for me... In fact the list you quoted was YOUR list for me, not my own... Interesting... your not trying to set me up are you? o.O Or is it another trap?

It was your "Lynch/Vote" list.

[vollkan]

Page 53, post 1310.

You gave a lynch/vote list and a pressure list.

[vollkan]

So in other words 4 pages ago... 3 pages before I was suppose to update my list. So yeah... My views changed in those 3 pages. I find it more or less unnecessary to go over it again as I am about to create a new list once I reread. So unless you find it absolutely essential to know what placed you on top of this list mere posts before I give you a completely new list I think I will just move on.

Well, logically, Orig is not likely to be mafia and dybeck is dead mafia which cuts those two off the top of the list. The puzzling thing is why you shuffle Elias down the order, implying that he has done something to make him appear less suspicious to you than me.

I do consider it important that you explain this.

There are two alternative lines of question which follow here:
1)

First line of question

a) What did I do that made me

more suspicious

than Elias?
b) What did Gemelli do that made him

more suspicious than Elias

?

2)

Second line of question

a) What did Elias do that made him

less suspicious

than me?
b) What did Elias do that made him

less suspicious

than Gemelli?

And, Korlash, I am going to press this point firmly. I want answers for this. You only need to answer stream 1 or 2, but you must answer both the a) and the b).

[vollkan]

He posted more...

Hmm...interesting...

Right so the change occurred from 1310.

Let's have a look at what Elias posted in that time:

When I promised my opinion on the Gem-Vollkan debate yesterday, I didnt realize that today is halloween. That post will have to wait for tomorrow.

A promise of content.

And then there was 1356 where Elias just reiterated the blasting which shaft.ed and I had already given to dybeck's answers to our questions.

And then....NOTHING until the end of the day.

So basically, Elias became less suspicious than me for nothing more than the fact that he made a post which was in concurrence with my own position.

FoS: Korlash

[vollkan]

Take it how you will... You more or less called it... what did you say... A "Pissing match"

If you cannot even realize you justed called any case I had on him a "pissing match" and am now expecting to hold me to it, you are seriously whacked up in the head man...

The fact your "case" on Elias was complete BS does not make him "less suspicious", though.

Moreover, I called it a pissing match in 1301, which was before you ranked Elias #3. Thus, if my dismissal of the case was really the reason that you chose to drop Elias back (and make me most suspicious, which is odd given that you allegedly were prepared to accept my criticism of the case on Elias) then makes absolutely no sense that you still held Elias under such suspicion.

1) Your "Post 541" Thing does make a good reason to suspect Elias. But it is more or less a bad attack. It could in fact prove a partnership between them, and so yes I think putting Elias on the chopping block right now is more or less a worthwhile ting, however. You cannot prove anything off of it as the person who said it is dead. So any attack you base off this quote is worthless.

Korlash, the statements of dead mafioso are tremendously valuable.

In one theme game (ongoing unfortunately), the majority of the scum were eliminated purely by virtue of tiny little slips like dybeck's in 541.

The hardest part of this game (mafia generally) is lynching the first member of a scumgroup. Once that is done, a wealth of knowledge is opened up.

Also, I would be more inclined to trust your cases Vollkan if you stopped assuming you know what everyone woudl do. You said something about "Knowing how scum would act" in a certain situation which more or less made any point you had just made worthless to me. I am getting a bit annoyed at having to argue my cases only to have you think you are GOD and know everything about everyone...

I already explained this. I don't pretend to have a perfect grasp of scum psychology. What I look for are links which can frame a certain perspective on things.

Blindly sitting here and saying "Well maybe dybeck was just wifoming us so any speculation is useless" doesn't help at all. I prefer to jump in with a few assumptions to get a certain framework for my analysis based on what things look like to me.

So, effectively, what I am saying is that I do not know what dybeck actually meant, but I am going to rationalise it in the way I think most likely so that I can best direct my thoughts.

Of course, I have not completely expounded what I think is happening here, and I will not do so until I have heard from Gemelli, AlyG and Lucienne.

Also is it possible Orig is an SK who just didn't NK to try and look Vig? I saw you ranked him at 65% and said it was because you still had feelings he was an SK but what would the odds be of an SK not killing to look like a vig? Also would it still be bad to not lynch him if he is the Sk? Just a question. All I want is an honest answer here...

The odds are good. A SK kill last night would have been a very risky move.

Our current situation is most likely 4:2:1 or 5:2.

If it were 4:2:1, Orig SKing would have caused either 3:2:1 or 4:1:1. Whilst 4:1:1 is obviously good, the 3:2:1 situation is VERY bad for a SK

Thus, his non-NKing does not prove too much, though it does make the vig scenario slightly more feasible. Moreover, the fact that he hammered so quickly suggests he knew dybeck's investigation was bs. Again, pointing to him being pro-town.

Now, as for the lynching, that requires numbers. Thankyou for bringing this up and reminding me.

Assuming Orig is SK,

SK Lynch

SK lynch = 4:2:0
MafNK = 3:2:0 LYLO

Mafia Lynch

Maflynch = 4:1:1
MafNK = 3:1:1
--Orig NK town = 2:1:1 See below
--Orig NK mafia = 3:0:1 Town win.

In 2:1:1

No lynch

Nolynch = 2:1:1
MafNK town = 1:1:1
--Orig NK town = 0:1:1 LOSS. Mafia and Orig draw.
--Orig NK mafia = 1:0:1 LOSS. Orig wins.
MafNK Orig = 2:1:0
--Orig NK town = 1:1:0 LOSS. Mafia wins.
--Orig NK mafia = 2:0:0 WIN. Town wins.

Thus, in the event of a no lynch in 2:1:1, the mafia can be guaranteed to NK Orig, since that is the only way they can win.

Mafia lynch

Maflynch = 2:0:1
Orig NK = 1:0:1 LOSS. Orig wins.

Orig lynch

Origlynch = 2:1:0
Maf NK = 1:1:0 LOSS. Mafia wins.

To summarise:
If we lynch Orig, we are at 3:2:0 LYLO regardless of his alignment.

Lynching a mafioso will put us at 3:1:1, 2:1:1 (wcs) or 3:0:1 (bcs) if Orig is SK. If Orig is vig, lynching a mafioso makes it 4:1, 3:1 (wcs) or 4:0 (bcs).

Now, the 3:1:1 situation is, I would argue, better than 3:2:0 because we know the identity of the SK. A mislynch is not a guaranteed loss (unlike 3:2:0) and, moreover, if we lynch mafia we can simply lynch Orig and win.

The only risk of going after mafia again is the prospect of the 2:1:1 which may result if both Orig and the mafia target townies tonight. Given that Orig has no significant advantage from NKing the mafia (since at best it will just cause 3:0:1, which is his loss) it is unlikely he would NK. Plus, the 2:1:1 situation is terrible for him, since the logical move for the mafia is to NK Orig and then hope that Orig hits a townie instead.

Thus, I am going to be very clear on this

lynching Orig is not an option

. He may well be a pro-town vig and, even if he is not, the mafia is still a more urgent priority.

[vollkan]

A) Way back when I asked if my case against Elias was justified or a waste of time, YOU said it was a waste of time long before post 1301.

This furthers exactly what I was saying about me having dismissed your case against Elias.

2) How is it odd I accept your criticism on the case on Elias? Does that even make sense to anyone else? I can barely follow that one... Was it an attack at me? Is it the current case or the previous case? What the heck are you talking about?

My criticism being valid has two effects: 1) It makes Elias's scumminess decrease; and 2) It makes me your biggest suspect.

Now, if I am your biggest suspect (ie. most likely mafioso) and I am criticising your case for Elias being mafia, that would logically suggest that you should have some level of skepticism about my criticism. And yet, you take my criticism on board and have yet to even posit the possibility.

and lastly) I only held him under suspicion because I clearly saw you had some kind of case going on him and thus he HAD to have something suspicious about him if it was worth a full page of discussion. I hadn't read it yet so I did not know exactly HOW high I should rank him and so I went with the safe bet of assuming it was not that much at the time.

Erm...you said:

simply because I feel he overreacted to my simple statement... No chance of me voting him because I know one of the above two will turn out to be scum. Still feel I would like him to participate a bit more in active discussions and so I am looking forward to his post tomorrow! ^^

You make no mention of me having a case against him and, moreover, you JUST SAID that I had said that the case against him was doubtful.

Agreed, the dead mafia do open up new doorways... Am I wrong when I remember you using Dybeck's list of putting Elias at 30% as an attack? Didn't you also mention something about Dybeck calling you town at some point? Couldn't one then use the same argument against you that you are currently using against Elias?

Sure you could. If you want to argue that I am mafia with dybeck, by all means go ahead. However, I agree with shaft.ed:

If you want to call people playing this town as those advocating against an orig lynch, as this seems to be your scum theory, then you would be hard pressed not to include vollkan in there. I'm really at a loss as to where Korlash comes into this.

I suspect dybeck is trying rather poorly to garner some favor from vollkan.

Doing so with such logical inconsistancies is bound to fail.

I've already said it looks like he was buddying up to me, and shaft.ed took the same view.

Pardon my French, but no shit!

Nice to see you are so convinced that there are 2 mafia remaining. I was unsure as to whether there was 1 or 2, given Orig could be SK, but you seem convinced that we have 3 mafia. I wonder why you are so sure....

The only thing is, you completely skipped the lynching a town today scenario...

I was determining our best course of action. Thus, lynching a townie was not something within my scope of reasoning.

3:2:1
Mafia NK: 2:2:1
Orig town kill: 1:2:1 (Mafia win)
Orig mafia Kill: 2:1:1 (Not a bad scenario)

No, not bad at all. Having to rely on scum cross-kills to have a hope of winning is no big deal /sarcasm

So my new list...
1) Vollkan (You still seem to base too much of your case on hat you believe they should or will do. It makes me doubt most of the stuff you bring to the table. While I believe I can learn a lot from you i feel you try to hard to sway people by voicing what you believe a scum woudl do in certain situations.)
2) Elias (While I do not agree with at least half of Vollkan's case I believe there is enough evidence to suggest a partnership with Dybeck. Further proof will be required but I would not be against more pressure/discussion on the matter.)
3) Gem (While I do not remember much of him Advocating Dybeck the fact he brings it up means it happened somewhere. Vollkan said he would get to it and has yet too... Avoiding pressuring your scum partner?Razz )
4) Lucienne (Cannot remember the last time I heard her speak... Got a no result from AlyG, could be she never sent in any target, could be she got RBed, could be she is vanilla. Would appreciate some input ASAP)

You know, you still haven't explained why you think I am scummy. I've told you that I am not assuming anything as prima facie fact, but I make assumptions to prompt reasoning.

In fact, you actually give more evidence against Elias and Gemelli than you do against me.

[vollkan]

MAKE UP YOUR MIND! First you critisize me because I dropped Elias down a couple slots, now you think you need to Further kill my case against him.. What.. Do you want me to put him last? Seriously... Pick a side of your attack and stick to it... I am not debating you killed my case, that only proves why he dropped so much! God...

You clearly have no idea what I am saying:

1) As you say, I was against your case against Elias that climaxed with the "pissing match".
2) Now, you have claimed that Elias became less suspicious to you because of this criticism made by me.
3) However, my attacks came

before

your scumdar post.
4) Your scumdar made no reference to my attacks

Now,
5) You have dropped Elias back down and offered a number of explanations:
a) That you made a massive post ruling him out. I'd love to see what "rules Elias out"
b) That he posted more. As I have shown, he posted nothing of substance.
c) That I had criticised the case myself

Aside from the fact that you are being slippery and changing the story, let me address c) in more detail.

* If my criticism had really meant anything to you, you would have commented on it in your scumdar. You didn't.
* Even if we take what you say as true: that my criticism made Elias made him less suspicious, things still look suspicious. This is because the effect of my criticism being valid is to make me the most suspicious. In other words, you would lose suspicion of somebody because your number 1 suspect says your case is trash.

what possibility? I have skepticism about YOUR case on Elias.. why would I then have skepticism about MY case on Elias... I had doubts about my case yesterday and so you agreeing with me does not require me to analyze it any further then that.

I have already addressed this.

Let me state it again,
If you accepted my criticism of your case, that has the effect of making me your #1. If I am #1, that should, in your mind, make it odd that I would effectively defend Elias. And yet, you never once question the integrity of my defence of Elias. You only question the integrity of my attack.

Yeah I am pretty sure there are 2 mafia as currently I see more evidence pointing towards vig then SK... Even with an Sk I would still assume three total mafia... Unless the Sk is pro-mafia... Either way your numbers never seem to be anything other then 2 mafia so don't try to force this type of attack on me without realizing it is easily thrown back at you...

Again, it's gone right over your head.

I do not know how many mafia there are. There may be two left, there may be one. Thus, I said it is "most likely 4:2:1 or 5:2." You responded with: "Pardon my French, but no shit!"

You suggested it was so blindly obvious that I should not have bothered.

And, again, you throw in a pathetic side-swipe at me: I have not been convinced there are 2 mafia right now; it is simply what me must assume for reasoning.

Really? I seem to remember you focusing on WCSs yesterday.. why the sudden change in heart?

Christ on a cracker! I just answered this. Lynching a townie is BAD. Thus, I need not contemplate it in terms of our best outcome. I was comparing lynching mafia to lynching Orig, because that was what YOU had asked me to do.

I no speak English well.. explain to me this "Scum Cross-kills"...

If mafia kill SK and SK kills mafia, they cross-kill. It just means where scum take out each other and no townie gets hurt.

Oh I think I went into great deal as to why I think your scummy yesterday...

Oh I think I would love to know which posts establish this

1

Adding onto that your constant basing of attacks on how you feel the person should and IS playing,

2

Plus the fact you keep saying lynching Orig is a bad idea because he will just be NKed anyways yet the mere fact he is alive does not change anything COULD< key word, imply that you two are the last scum.

1) I have now explained this at least 3 times and am not going to repeat myself. Suffice to say, this shows the level of thought in your suspicion of me.
2) For this to be the case, Orig would need to be mafia with dybeck (HIGHLY UNLIKELY in the EXTREME) and so would I (Even objectively, you are alleging some seriously extreme bussing).

Now, if I had voted you I would have outlined a full case citing examples.. and the like... but until then my list is based on personal feelings and not so much hard evidence.

Good. I'll remember that, at this point in time, your suspicions are based on nothing more than what appears to be your dislike of my playstyle.

And what evidence have I given against Gem? Seriously... Or Elias for that matter... Other then one or two points I have pretty much left Elias alone, and have barely mentioned Gem today...

I don't know, what evidence have you given against Gem that gives him the #2 position?

What I am seeing here, is that Korlash has arbitrarily shuffled his suspicion list to plant me at the top and to move Elias out of the way.

As for Prima facie.. You were quick to put a vote on someone day 3... Now I am not so sure about this... we have what... 6 players? no 7 players... So what.. 4 to lynch... granted not so much a fear of a quick lynch yet.. but I still find a vote this early a little odd... Again nothing vote worthy but enough to further my reason for why I deem you #1 material.

*blink*
My haste to pass a vote makes me suspicious when, as you say, there is no risk of a quick lynch. I have already said that one more vote will cause me to jump off.

It doesn't "further" your reasons; it basically is your reason. Despite how stupid a reason it is to suspect me, it is the only tangible point you have presented against me beyond mere gut feeling.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
As an aside, I would

really

like AlyG, Lucienne and Gemelli to comment on this debate with Korlash and what you think it may suggest. As I have been saying, I have a theory but I need to see whether anyone else reaches the same conclusions without me influencing their thoughts by posting it.

[vollkan]

There is no one post... Go back and read any scumdar I ever made with sentences about the people, review the whole Vanilla town incident, and check out any posts I have ever made that gave connections between you and shaft.ed... I know I kept laying out evidence all day yesterday... But until i feel like voting you can go find it yourself...

I will get to this after this post.

More specifically my dislike of how you present your cases.. and so in my mind most of your cases, while very well thought out and explained, seem more or less BS once you begin to "tell how you think people should play" and to explain that means nothing to me I'm sorry. If you keep doing it, I will keep ignoring a lot of your better points because I feel they are baseless. And in so doing that I then feel you do not have enough on Elias to be attacking him, and in doing that I assume you are scum trying to push BS cases on people...

See it is all a domino effect to me. You say "I think this is how someone will play in this situation!" and then vote or press that attack a lot. So then I think "Oh this is BS" I post against it, you get on me, I reply back, we keep getting further and further away. And before you know it in your mind "I saved Elias" and in my mind "You just came at me with a fully BS case!"

see I think a lot of my feelings against you are mainly for that reason and no matter why you do it, as long as you do it I will feel the same... But if thats how you are going to play I will try to get over it...

Korlash, let me try and explain how I play to you:
I assess what I think to be the most likely scenario, based on the evidence. I then frame my interrogations around that scenario. Currently, that scenario is Elias as mafia with either yourself or Gemelli, and then possibly Lucienne as the third candidate. That doesn't mean that I am convinced that scenario is the case; it is simply the most logical way for me to approach things. Any assumptions on dybeck's behaviour that I make are only to build a framework for analysis; to lay the foundations if you will.

I don't know, what evidence have you given against Gem that gives him the #2 position?

Um no... you answer this first:

And what evidence have I given against Gem? Seriously... Or Elias for that matter... Other then one or two points I have pretty much left Elias alone, and have barely mentioned Gem today...

Don't say something like:

In fact, you actually give more evidence against Elias and Gemelli than you do against me.

If you cannot back it up...

I was referring to this:

[quote="Korlash"
So my new list...
1) Vollkan (You still seem to base too much of your case on hat you believe they should or will do. It makes me doubt most of the stuff you bring to the table. While I believe I can learn a lot from you i feel you try to hard to sway people by voicing what you believe a scum woudl do in certain situations.)
2) Elias (While I do not agree with at least half of Vollkan's case I believe there is enough evidence to suggest a partnership with Dybeck. Further proof will be required but I would not be against more pressure/discussion on the matter.)
3) Gem (While I do not remember much of him Advocating Dybeck the fact he brings it up means it happened somewhere. Vollkan said he would get to it and has yet too... Avoiding pressuring your scum partner?Razz )
4) Lucienne (Cannot remember the last time I heard her speak... Got a no result from AlyG, could be she never sent in any target, could be she got RBed, could be she is vanilla. Would appreciate some input ASAP) [/quote]

Your comments on me (your apparent #1) are entirely based on playstyle. In contrast, for Elias and Gemelli you actually look at tangible stuff relating to partnership with dybeck. That's my problem. You said you have been building a case on me (I will search for this in my next post, trust me) but here you make no reference to anything other than my playstyle.

Anyone else find it odd Vollkan can never give his own reasons or theories before he hears them from us first? I mean take the example i this post.. I ask him a question, he asked me to answer it first because he has no answer to it. Now take this, he could give a theory. Who cares if it influences you guys, that is what this game is about. Yet instead he asks you guys for them first...

Ohhh... Tsk tsk... I could honestly see this as you sitting there without any theory at all hoping someone else has one you can jump behind and support. Normally I wouldn't automatically assume this but I find you do it quit a lot... (And yeah this is when you ask me to "Give examples" or whatever you do.. And trust me I will have a list when and IF i vote you.. no worries there...)

I know I do this a lot. The reason is that I am determined to get an accurate "Before and after" perspective on what I say. It's basically to prevent people saying "Oh, well I changed my mind 2 pages ago, but I just didn't post anything."

I will post my theory at the end of this post. Gemelli's opinion was the most important to me in terms of impact on the theory.

I personally find voting in the first post of the day a little strange... But each player has his own play style (Even if yours is wacky...) So I do not label this a "Scumtell" and yes, I have no fear of a quick lynch. But at the same time I wonder why you would even say "I will unvote if another player votes!"

WHY EVEN VOTE? Can you answer this one... It has been bugging me ever sence you first said it a couple posts ago...

I suspect Elias the most, thus I vote Elias. I do not want Elias lynched at this stage, so I would unvote if the bandwagon got nay higher. It's pretty simple. A single vote is fairly meaningless.

Now, Gemelli.
First up, thankyou for posting your scumdar.

Oman/Korlash:

Regularly attacked him on D1 and D2 as probable mafia. Insinuated that he was paired with originality. Also argued that he could be SK. Strongly pushed for his lynch at the end of D2. I think it is

quite unlikely

that Korlash is aligned with Dybeck as mafia.

Korlash/dybeck is something I am going to be looking into shortly as well. I have a feeling that it may not be as unlikely as we think.

Lucienne:

Mostly ignored D1. Included her on suspicion list starting in post 888. Suggested that she might be the SK, but never includes her as a mafia suspect. I think it is feasible that Lucienne is aligned with Dybeck as mafia.

I'm not going to comment on Lucienne

yet

but I have some ideas.

Elias:

Never suspects him. Not even once. Responds respectfully to him once, asks for his help, enthusiastically welcomes him back, is "fairy happy" with Elias as pro-town, and gives him a 30% scumdar rating. THIS IS THE ONLY PLAYER REMAINING IN THE GAME WHO DYBECK DID NOT SUSPECT EVEN IN PASSING.

So that makes you and Orig who have both expressed suspicion of Elias.

Also let's say Elias is the second scum, who would most likely be the third then?

The Theory

Nothing too complicated really. Now, before people jump down my throat for speculation and wifom, understand that this is only the framework by which I currently see things. I am not calling it FACT; I am simply presenting it as what currently seems to be the case.

My Suspected Mafia

Elias_the_thief has obvious links to dybeck suggesting scum partnership. Korlash has been critical of my case on Elias, replaced the oh-so-scummy Oman and, moreover, I think that he may have been more linked to dybeck than we think. I intend to analyse this in detail, but I think that dybeck only really went after Oman when it was close to hammering time. There are other things, like Korlash being wishy-washy and stuff on dybeck at the end.

The Rest

AlyG

- I think it is safe to say that AlyG is a tracker. The only way she could be scum is if she was mafia with Orig. If that were the case, Orig would have to be mafia with dybeck which, of course, seems unlikely in the extreme.

Gemelli

- Links to dybeck and a dodgy case against me both make me uneasy. However, his later posts ring genuine to me and he has posted plenty of meaningful analysis, which is a town tell. Moreover, his scumdar is what I would have expected of him if he was pro-town.

Lucienne

- She is a lurker, she had no night action and shaft.ed was adamant in defending her. My gut instinct is that shaft.ed got an innocent on Lucienne N1 and that she is vanilla. I suggest you all look over shaft.ed's mentioning of Lucienne in the parser. She could be mafia with dybeck, but I currently think vanilla is most likely.

originality

- Either vig or SK. Either way, he isn't our play for today.

[vollkan]

Moreover, his scumdar is what I would have expected of him if he was pro-town.

Can I ask you what you mean by this? I mean if he said I was probably town, and you say I am probably mafia... Ehh... I just don't get what your saying here... How is his scumdar most likely from a pro-town?

It's simple. Gemelli's scumdar was:

1) Elias
2) Lucienne
3) Korlash
4) Vollkan

If he was scum, I would have expected myself to be in a higher position than at least one of Elias and Korlash.

Now,

Dybeck's Links to Korlash

145: Accuses Vamp of distancing with Oman. He has his vote on Vamp. This is a common scum tactic, similar to the Vote/FoS combo. The rationale for this is that if you accuse them of being linked and one shows up town, it appears to suggest that you might be wrong about your partner.
150: FoSes Oman.
158: Again with the Oman/Vamp and also throws in Spurg as well
No mention of Oman again until...
385: Where he simply discusses the merits of lynching SKShaft.ed with Oman.
391: Says Oman's scenarios for the game are not likely.
432: Thinks Orig is scummier than BS and Oman
673: Randomly mentions he leans to Oman as SK but "it could be anyone". Again, more kid glove attacks
688: Puts Oman fourth on the list for Orig NKs. If Oman was not on his list, given the suspicion of Oman, it would look odd. Thus, Oman is placed in the last spot.
845: More suggestion of Oman as SK
888: Another list, this time with Oman in second place to No Kill. By this stage, No Kill was looking most definite.
951: The arbitrary thing to drop the hammer.
969: Thinks Oman is mafia with Orig
973: More of the above
1074: Suggests lynching Korlash
1089: Votes Korlash
Many other mentions of Korlash as scum with probably shaft.ed

Okay, what we notice here is that his suspicion of Oman/Korlash is ALWAYS with somebody else as the partner. Dybeck was constantly attacking Korlash, but only once it became clear that one of them was going down. That can point to one of two things:
1) Korlash is not scum with dybeck and dybeck was trying to score an easy lynch
2) Korlash is scum with dybeck and dybeck was attempting some last-minute distancing.

I'd like to know what people think.

Now,

Oman/Korlash to Dybeck

No real mention until
263: Where he "seconds" Ryan's questions on dybeck
297: Votes Ryan, one of his reasons is bullying of dybeck
306: Defends dybeck over alleged rolefishing (?)
312: Again with the bullying
365: Says he is tempted to vote dybeck, but AlyG is worse
381: Votes dybeck
383: Argues against dybeck
386: More argument. Unusually long post for Oman
393: Still suspects dybeck
402: Jumps over to AlyG
434: More argument
440: Votes dybeck
445: Interesting post.

dybeck does make a good point about the strangulation flavour, and i don't really thing Carrotcake was that bad...but I don't really want to lynch a orig for that

as this is his first vig role

and its possible he's not a great target chooser.

He assumes Orig is vig.
454: Votes Orig.
461: Suggests AlyG track dybeck
508: Unvotes, will go on dybeck or AlyG
510: Follows me and votes dybeck
537: Suggests either dybeck or AlyG for lynch
691: NK list. Dybeck is second but No Kill is WAAAY first
717: Says dybeck should be #2 on the list, but leaves open for Elias or Lucienne
720: Says he made a mistake and #2 should be Orig (wtf?!)
956: I swear I was voting dybeck
<Exit Oman> <Enter Korlash>
1125: Thinks that the mafia are Vollkan, Orig, and either shaft.ed or dybeck. The addition of dybeck on the end is kid-glovish.
And this:

would rather Lynch the most likely mafia, Orig, today, take you out tomorrow, and hope either shaft.ed or Dybeck.

THIS is extremely interesting and scummy as all hell.

He maintains this bizarre Vollkan/shaft.ed/dybeck line for some posts

1173: dybeck is most likely
1182: Votes dybeck to L-2. Wants to hear content from him
1189: Wants me to explain the L-1 vote on dybeck
1216: Thinks dybeck should vote Orig
1221: Now Lucienne is his #1 candidate...odd
1253: "I'm more interested in Lucienne and Elias then him and Orig"
1267:

if Dybeck is really the cop I think he should more or less be telling you to go F*** your numbers.
....
4) Dybeck- %45
~Do not fully believe his claim because of a few things, did not immediately switch vote after claiming guilty investigation, seemed to waver a bit from his original target. But he seems more or less sticking with his "lynch Orig" policy now even with Vollkan repeatedly attacking him for it. I can see both sides ATM but am finding it hard to agree with Dybeck mostly because he does not have that "posting flair" Vollkan does.

1279: Top suspects are dybeck and Elias
1310: Dybeck #1 for lynch/vote list
1334: Leaning to dybeck or Orig. Votes dybeck
1345: "Also I keep seeing that you are worried about a mislynch. If I believe Dybeck's claim, then I would be sure Orig was mafia, and thus we would not mislynch. And that will more or less prevent half of your bad scenarios right there! It all seems to be a win-win in my mind here..."

There is definitely some attacking here, but there are also a few kid-glove/distancing things.

The links between them are not as strong as dybeck-Elias; that much is clear.

[vollkan]

Why? This was way back when I believed Orig to be most likely mafia and not the Vig/Sk... I thought we already went through this...

Okay, let's have a look at your "plan":
1) You want "mafia" Orig lynched, when obviously that was a nonsense position since his NK was already guaranteed if he was mafia
2) Take you me tomorrow. Planning the next day's lynch is a scumtell. The scumminess of this will ring more to me than anybody else (because only I know my aignment) but I think the point is still readily apparent.
3) Hope either shaft.ed or Dybeck get NKed. The only way for it to be feasible that dybeck be NKed is if he were mafia with Orig, which is something we could pretty much rule out, even at that stage. As for shaft.ed, well we now know that he was NKed and was protown, the cop no less, which makes this 3rd point seem incredibly suspect.

[vollkan]

Korlash's Case on Vollkan

1116: If I was actually protown "I would not be worried about a vanilla claiming". I'll be polite and just call this bullshit.
1119: Height of the vanilla debate. Most of it was krap logik defenses, though Korlash did say he expects me to NK Orig and push his lynch tomorrow. He also says my attacks of him are lame.
1125: Thinks I am making too big a deal of Korlash doing a "I am town" softclaim. Thinks I am mafia

with

shaft.ed (obviously false) and am distancing against dybeck (I know this to be false, and you should at least see it as severely unlikely). Interesting that there is no actual explanation as to

why

I (or shaft.ed) are mafia. No worry, I am sure the "case" will surface at some point
1140: "My theory of a Vollkan, Shaft.ed, Dybeck trio is embedded in my mind" because of the attacks over the vanilla claim. This isn't a case against me; I stand by everything that was said about the vanilla claim. Additionally, you are here attacking shaft.ed for the vanilla thing when you now KNOW that he was genuine pro-town. So, even if you disagree with me on your vanilla claim being anti-town, you can see that shaft.ed, confirmed town, took the same position.
1142 Votes shaft.ed and contradicts self with this:

i never voted Vollkan because I felt it seemed to OMGUSish, not to mention i had not been fully set on you three being the scum.

Well, Korlash, it was "embedded in your mind" just two posts ago...now you aren't "fully set".
1148: Again says the arguments against him are "false". Then we have that bogus list of my "false claims" which I dissected and rebutted all of. He then moves on to attack shaft.ed as well.
1163: Suggests that he thought shafted/vollkan as mafia was viable because we had the same views. He then reiterates that I was his top suspect (why?...) and that shaft.ed seemed most linked to me. However,

I more or less disagree with this now as I see all my own flaws. I still admit you and Vollkan have a few things linking you, but no more then any player-to-player links you gain during a 45 page game. As for a Vollkan-Dybeck link, I admit the degree of distancing that would require is pretty unnecessary so I also find myself different minded on that one.

So, here we have Korlash admitting his faults and that vollkan-Dybeck is not likely. Glad to have found this.

and then,

If this is true then I am slightly less inclined to think he is scum. If he has in fact been playing this way all game (I may not have noticed it on my read) then The fact he seemed to come at me like he did doesn't seem as scummy as it did earlier. I admit this right here is a good reason some of my suspicion on Vollkan has dropped (among other things) and so if what he said is false I woudl like someone to mention it. Or even say how true it is. It would save me a lot of reread time.

1167:

Vollkan wrote:
"Top suspect"? If you are now accepting my comments regarding the vanilla claim, then what is your case against me?

I meant my "top suspect then" not top suspect now. Simple misunderstanding ^^

Aww <3 Korlash revokes the case against me

1173: "Also the Shaft.ed/Vollkan "hate" as you put it stemmed from a small bit of paranoia and a big misunderstanding I blew out of proportion."
1213: Criticises me for making assumptions about people's behaviour
1231: This needs background. I had just asked K1orlash who he most wanted lynched out of SKOrig or mafdybeck. Korlash answered with "Lucienne. I mean all she has done for the past." He also gave an ambivalent thing referring to how "you all had a long conversation about how lynching Orig is bad." and, on that basis, said he was "sure if a Guilty investigation will change anything". Now, I then attacked Korlash for this. His response here in 1231 was to demand that I stop over-reacting and being paranoid
1237: Continues this paranoid accusation here, suggesting I am always seeing what he says as scummy
1261: More of this
1267: Understands my logic in not wanting to get rid of Orig, but thinks dybeck is justified in his hardline stance because "counting on your fingers and toes pales in comparison to actual hard evidence". Says I am wrong 9 times out of 10. (I guess dybeck was the 1 then ) Thinks my traps are ineffective.

3) Vollkan- Even %50
~Personal Feelings aside, I think he is one of the best players I have ever seen so I respect a lot he has been saying and tend to agree with him about certain stuff. Some things look pro town to me, while others seem a bit more... I don't know... (I would laugh my head off if he turned out to be the Vig/Sk XD)

Aside from the vagueness of your suspicions ("some things") you clearly do not have any substantial case on me. Later on, you also say that the only way shaft.ed could be scum is as my partner
1298: Says to Elias: "You have NO PROBLEMS with either of them? [Vollkan or shafted] None at all? Even after Gem's huge Vollkan thing?" Trying to drum up suspicion on shaft.ed and me
1310: Vaguely supports Gem's case, saying I dodged "some points" *blink* Suggests I should admit my mistakes more. That's it. This continues when he "updates" his scumdar: On the lynch/vote list

4) Vollkan- I cannot ignore my gut feelings I got through my read up. But it is true his play style is something I am not used to. I like how in depth he is with posts, his way of thinking, and how aggressive yet to the point he can seem. I cannot look past the "Following Shaft.ed" angle, or the fact that Gem has made a few good points I agree with.

No case still.

On the pressure list:

3) Vollkan- While I dread any future long ass posts from you I feel you can really narrow things down to this or that, your numbers while I don't read them seem to be good tools for other players (Gem and Shaft.ed at least), and overall I feel you have taught me in my newbiness a lot this game.

1341: Thinks I am being arrogant in my defence of Orig. Given dybeck was mafia, I feel vindicated in this regard

And that's it until this day.

So....basically, I have become Korlash's number one suspect for absolutely NOTHING! He repudiated all the earlier stuff from the vanilla debate (which was krap logik anyway) and has only ever done this vague "I agree with Gemelli" stuff. Aside from what looks like a distaste for my personal style and attitude, there is not a shred of any substance to this. He just keeps repeating the mantra that I seem scummy (until I stop attacking him that is). Now, on D3, he has opened up with me as his #1 and with nothing to back this up.

HoS: Korlash

Korlash, you have some serious explaining to do. You have never, EVER presented a case against me. I'm

this close

to voting you right now, but I want to hear back from Elias first.

[vollkan]

Actually my first... third? Anyways.. one of my first posts was me mentioning three separate occasions during the day you tipped my radar. That can be argued to have been a case.

You can tell that someone is reaching when they rely on something in one of their first posts which "can be argued to have been a case".

Anyway, I missed that post you refer to; I was reading it in reverse order and thought I had hit your first post when I hadn't.

Anyway, it was your second post
Your 3 points:
1) You think I am too readily assuming shaft.ed is pro-town by writing him off my mafia list, suggesting we are scum together. This has been proven wrong, so let's move on.
2) You criticise a trap of mine. Again, this shows nothing.
3) Criticising my stance on Orig NKing. I have already explained this about a zillion times.

Okay, done. Anything else?

[vollkan]

But simple semantics aside, you have been on top of my list ever since those "Traps" of yours. Any playstyle that allows you to slip out of any "Bad play" simply by claiming it a trap is something I cannot condone.

Right, so I am your suspect on

policy

grounds. I really don't need to make any comment on this.

And while I may or may not have "repudiated all the earlier stuff from the vanilla debate" your post 1436 clearly shows you are still willing to hang me for that case. So either agree that I have dropped it or continually press it. I don't care which one. You just need to stop playing both sides...

Korlash, if you repudiate an argument, you cannot then invoke it again unless you assert fresh justification. However, I can still hold that against you, because you still said it. Admitting you were wrong can work as damage control, but it doesn't just void your responsibility. This looks like a very slippery move by you to throw off part of the argument against you and I do not like

green eggs and ham

it at all

[vollkan]

I would agree with you that most of Korlash's case against you seems to be weak. I'm not sure if that is itself a scumtell, but I was obviously wrong about the scumtells you guys identified from Dybeck.

It is a scumtell. He is holding suspicion of me for arbitrary reasons and no substantive case. What do you think of this theory: If Korlash is scum, he and his partner were hoping that getting rid of shaft.ed would cause you (Gemelli) to attack me more. That might explain Korlash's baseless suspicion of me from the start of this day and his vague support for your case.

Something that occurred to me this morning as I struggled out of bed: we've identified three possible/likely power roles for town in this game (Tracker, Cop, Vig), as well as any other power roles that have yet to be revealed. If we only have three scum, is this a bit overpowered in favor of the town? Does this increase the possibility that there is a Godfather among the scum, or possibly even a scum power role?

Excellent point.

It is extremely common to have a godfather in three-scum groups. The fact we have a cop, a tracker and a vig suggests that the scum might have a godfather, or a mafia roleblocker. Hmm...what if Orig was RBed last night?

Orig, did you send in a night choice and, if so, whom? If you are SK, know that you will not be lynched for admitting to this. The point is that it will tell us something very important about the mafia.

As for Lucienne being the godfather, it is a possibility. One other remark, though, is that often, though not always, godfathers need to be the one to commit the kill. However, that certainly does not rule the possibility out.

* Oman's heavy-handed bandwagonning --> A null tell? Oman does seem to bandwagon heavily regardless of alignment.

I have played in quite a few games with Oman and he bandwagons regardless of alignment. However, the trick is to look at how he is bandwagoning and if it seems scummy. If he has good reasons for wagoning, it is not a scumtell. But when he doesn't, unless it is a random wagon, it suggests he may be scum.

But that's not what you said. You said "Assuming we have 3 scum, there is our scumgroup." You didn't include Dybeck in the equation at all.

This is a good point. I had said that dybeck was mafia or cop. Elias just ruled out the mafia option and pegged those 3 as the scumgroup.

He may be experienced, but he was on the defensive for almost all of D2, having triggered the town's collective scumdar early. And you could just as easily ask the question: why would a mafia purposefully NEVER put suspicion on someone he knew to be town? The answer to both questions is probably the same: the "average mafia" would probably not "purposefully" do either thing. But the fact is, Dybeck has done exactly that. Don't you think it's worth speculating why he treated you differently than everyone else in the game?

This makes me think. Dybeck was, as you say, on the defence all D2 virtually. The only player he was consistently attacking was Orig. Indeed, we put him in a Catch-22 by attacking dybeck for arbitrary suspicion of shaft.ed and myself. Thus, dybeck was effectively locked into suspecting Orig. If he had gone on a tirade against Elias, I think he knew that he would come under suspicion.

[vollkan]

And since I'm here, I'll post my scum list:
1) Lucienne
2) Elias (all points against him have been extremely good)
3) Korlash (But probably Elias)

It's very interesting that the only people that haven't agreed with the Elias case are Korlash and Elias. Your suspicion of Lucienne is based on her just parroting what other people have said, right?

[vollkan]

Good observations, Orig.

I think all we can say is that shaft.ed did not suspect Lucienne, since it is obviously dangerous to assume he actually found her innocent. Also, are you saying that you think shaft.ed investigated my predecessor or BS (Gemelli's predecessor)?

[vollkan]

It's really all just speculation. I think that the best we can say is that shaft.ed did not suspect Lucienne, Gemelli or myself. Make what you will of those.

Something else...Lucienne said she would be back by Monday (the 5th). It has now been over a week since that day. I dread the prospect of us needing a replacement at 59 pages.

[vollkan]

She left us on Friday 2nd. It is now the 13th. The Monday she

should

have returned was the 5th and she has not shown up at all in over a week.

[vollkan]

You know what? Dybeck did it. Not me. If you wish to hold it against me, then fine, but I can't explain his actions. More and more I find myself thinking that his day two play was purely for setting up a series of unfortunate events for the town, including the framework to support my mislynch. I think it's perfectly feasible. First, he ran into a LOT of suspicion early day two, explaining why the course of action would be taken. Second, he falseclaimed cop, and didnt even do a good job of it. I believe this was simply an attempt to out the cop. If we take his position from that of a scum trying to stay alive, to a scum trying to hurt the town as much as possible before he goes down, me being town makes a lot more sense.

In other words, you are reducing this to a simple WIFOM:
1) dybeck's play was all designed to set you up for a lynch and that his crappy falseclaiming was not him panicking but was him attempting to out the real cop (that he didn't even know existed and which I had said was unlikely to exist)as a result of him having fallen under suspicion for his play early D2 (are you saying that his crappy play was deliberate?)

OR

2) dybeck just blundered his way through D2

Gemelli referred to Occam's Razor, but I think a different principle is in order; the Sir Bernard Ingham variation of Hanlon's Razor:

Cock-up before conspiracy

Thus, I present my "Cock-up Model":
Dybeck found a confirmed killer of D2 and began to push its lynch. He encountered opposition and got drawn into an enormous debate that pulled him under suspicion. All day long he was fighting his case as the rest of us debated the best course of action. Eventually, dybeck panicked after thinking he was at L-1, or at least was in peril of lynch, and so he claims cop. I don't think this was to draw out the real cop, so much as it was a last-ditch effort to bring Orig down. Dybeck failed miserably and got lynched.

How is a point based on what scum "characteristically do" not affected if you admit that scum do not necessarily act in this way?

I've already explained this. I take what I think to be the most sensible explanation for things and then frame my reasoning and investigation around it. For example, yesterday I had no proof dybeck was mafia but I figured it made most sense to me if he was mafia trying to off Orig. Of course, I wavered at points, because it was only a framework scenario, but gradually it emerges whether or not I am really on the right track or not.

Thus, for dybeck, my most sensible scenario points to him being scum with you. As such, I frame things in that light and see the results.

The fact that I could be wrong in my

framework

is inconsequential because it is simply a reasoning tool anyway, by which I process the game and conduct my arguments. If the framework is demonstrably flawed, I can find another one and try to find a different angle on things that works more effectively.

k. So basically you're saying his consistent stance towards me is a null tell, since he did it to the majority of players.

Erm..no. I mentioned nothing about a null-tell. I simply said that dybeck only altered his position on myself and shaft.ed, towards the end of the day.

If you say so. However, be aware that last time, all of your guesses based on Oman's list were wrong. (especially the part where you thought it indicated I was scum)

Yes, and since that I have learnt to be more careful about not becoming entrenched in my frameworks. I interpreted Oman's list as being an actual reflection of things, rather than doing what I should have done: trying to make sense of it and using it without becoming convinced that my thoughts corresponded to what had actually happened.

So basically you're saying that you saw the list, saw a few possible scenarios that could explain his reasoning, saw one that gelled nicely with your own assumptions on him, and took it? Is this how you get all of your evidence? Find the possibility that conforms with your predetermined notions and advocate it?

My steps:
1) Look at the available evidence and find the outcome which seems most sensible
2) Investigate, accuse and attack based on that outcome. Since 486, I have learnt to make sure I remember that the outcome is only a framework.
3) Use the results of those inquiries as further sources of information so as to re-assess the validity of the original outcome and to alter as necessary

Ah. So basically you're saying that since I had one similar point to support a similar conclusion, the entire post was echoed from him. Got it. That totally makes sense.

It seemed to be your dominant reason for suspecting Orig.

The fact that you say "experienced enough to know its not a scumtell" is where I know I can discount what youre saying. Are you familiar with the concept of wifom? Ya know, taking what you think scum wouldnt do and doing it as scum? Besides, I would make the play as scum and town. Its good for town if I am town, it makes me look protown as scum because I do it as town. So what you've got there is a null point.

Not null, just unreadable. You do bandwagon a lot, that's true.

Ah. So basically you're saying that since I had one similar point to support a similar conclusion, the entire post was echoed from him. Got it. That totally
makes sense.

In 988 you went after Orig on the basis of his gut feeling and the fact that he assumed SK. The former of these was dybeck's line and the latter is pretty meaningless.

I'm sorry, but the downplaying was justified. The fact that you saw the sense in this then should show you how true it is now. I'm not going to say that just because he was scum that all the arguments pointing in that direction were good ones. I believe a similar issue arose in 486 around I think seteal. Go back and read. I disputed all cases against him long after he was proven to be scum.

Wasn't Setael my mason partner in 486? I think you might mean Shanba...

But, as I have said, at the time I was losing faith myself, purely because it was going nowhere. Your downplaying of the points hit at the foundations of my case and caused me to lose my belief that dybeck was scum. I mean, all of those points are scumtells, of varying strength.

Its not ambivalence. I said it wasnt convincing, ie I wouldnt vote for him under normal circumstances. I also said I would vote for him at deadline. I think thats a pretty clear cut idea of what I thought of it, pinpointing when I would and wouldnt vote him, and all.

This is getting into semantics. The "it's alright thing" is ambivalence and neutralisation of the issue. You don't defend, you don't attack. Of course your explanation is "sufficient", but it doesn't change your ambivalent stance.

I was clear...I said it about two posts in that I was still against the Orig lynch.

I was having to argue pretty damn hard against the Orig lynch, since my only consistent supporter was shaft.ed. You did say you didn't want the lynch, I know that, but you still criticised our case against it without making it patently and consistently clear that you did not want Orig lynch. In that situation, where we were having to argue forcefully, it should have been obvious to you that anything you said in counter to us would be fuelling dybeck's cause.

My "critical" powers? Vollkan, there's a reason that I have a bad town record. I am very bad at scumhunting. The only real skill I have at mafia is defending myself (which I've only recently developed, since I started debate). I made it clear that I leaning towards yes, but was unsure. Also, do you really find it odd that someone who had been absent most of the game might have trouble pinning down his feelings on a claim?

Again, ambivalence. You are now justifying it on having been away. Shaft.ed and I had been attacking the claim and you still took the half-hearted approach.

alright. is this something that you think a townie is unlikely to go through?

A townie should go through some degree of wavering, but you were consistently indecisive until things became cemented one way or the other. That is a scumtell. It is basically just allowing yourself to fall in with the majority without having to commit to anything.

Hard stance and attack are different vollkan. you know this.

Semantics. You know what I mean. All day you had been "tentative" about anything to do with dybeck or Orig unless the majority opinion had formed hard on something. Your only definite stance/hard stance/proper attack on dyebck came at the end.

[vollkan]

Ok. AlyG is almost certainly tracker. Orig is either vig or SK (SK in my opinion). Lucienne is really hard to read considering how absent she's been. This leaves me with Gemelli, Korlash, and Vollkan (though lucienne isnt out of the picture). Anyways, I'm pretty sure at least one mafioso is in that three. Based on the evidence, Korlash is most likely. He's been acting really wierd about his suspicions towards Vollkan. In addition to that, Oman's behavior day 1 was very suspicious. Also, I think that Oman/Korlash had bigger ties to dybeck then I did. His opinion for a while on dy's claim was "not telling" and then undecided. I'm ambivalent, Vollkan? So yeah. Pretty sure that Omlash is scum. He's the only person besides me (town) who has any what looks like ties to Dybeck.

Odd...I actually agree with the logic of this. Of course, if you are mafia with Lucienne, this crumbles completely.

Grr... the implications of this make me want to see Lucienne post something even more now.

[vollkan]

You know what? Dybeck did it. Not me. If you wish to hold it against me, then fine, but I can't explain his actions. More and more I find myself thinking that his day two play was purely for setting up a series of unfortunate events for the town, including the framework to support my mislynch. I think it's perfectly feasible. First, he ran into a LOT of suspicion early day two, explaining why the course of action would be taken. Second, he falseclaimed cop, and didnt even do a good job of it. I believe this was simply an attempt to out the cop. If we take his position from that of a scum trying to stay alive, to a scum trying to hurt the town as much as possible before he goes down, me being town makes a lot more sense.

In other words, you are reducing this to a simple WIFOM:
1) dybeck's play was all designed to set you up for a lynch and that his crappy falseclaiming was not him panicking but was him attempting to out the real cop (that he didn't even know existed and which I had said was unlikely to exist)as a result of him having fallen under suspicion for his play early D2 (are you saying that his crappy play was deliberate?)

OR

2) dybeck just blundered his way through D2

Gemelli referred to Occam's Razor, but I think a different principle is in order; the Sir Bernard Ingham variation of Hanlon's Razor:

Cock-up before conspiracy

Thus, I present my "Cock-up Model":
Dybeck found a confirmed killer of D2 and began to push its lynch. He encountered opposition and got drawn into an enormous debate that pulled him under suspicion. All day long he was fighting his case as the rest of us debated the best course of action. Eventually, dybeck panicked after thinking he was at L-1, or at least was in peril of lynch, and so he claims cop. I don't think this was to draw out the real cop, so much as it was a last-ditch effort to bring Orig down. Dybeck failed miserably and got lynched.

Essentially, yes. This is a simple Wifom. I've said that from the beginning, and have really only been pushing other scenarios to show you how wifom it is. Basically a null point now.

No. Wifom =/= Nullity. From the perspective of inquiries I am taking what seems to be the most likely interpretation of dybeck on the totality of the evidence. This isn't a point you can rebut, or that we can debate over, because, as you say, it is dybeck not you. The fact is that the evidence points to dybeck being scum with you. Yes, it depends on wifom, but that doesn't invalidate the point. You seem to be trying to neutralise the point by calling it wifom. Any attempt to interpret somebody in this game is ultimately wifom; wifom arguments can be made either way on anything.

The knack is to be able to use the evidence properly. That doesn't mean I am correct here, but I think I am approaching this in the correct way.

How is a point based on what scum "characteristically do" not affected if you admit that scum do not necessarily act in this way?

I've already explained this. I take what I think to be the most sensible explanation for things and then frame my reasoning and investigation around it. For example, yesterday I had no proof dybeck was mafia but I figured it made most sense to me if he was mafia trying to off Orig. Of course, I wavered at points, because it was only a framework scenario, but gradually it emerges whether or not I am really on the right track or not.

However, as you later admitted, you interpret info to fit your own agenda. Thus, I think your scumhunting style is extremely flawed (for one, its incorrectly fingered me as scum twice now).

Agenda is the wrong word. It implies conscious intention. I form a view of what is most likely based on what I have seen, and then try to to frame things in that light to see what comes of it.

I haven't "incorrectly fingered" you here: 1) Because I don't yet know if I am in error; and 2) Because I have not "fingered" you. My mistake in 486 was relying too much on my own case framework rather than interpreting what was going on around it.

k. So basically you're saying his consistent stance towards me is a null tell, since he did it to the majority of players.

Erm..no. I mentioned nothing about a null-tell. I simply said that dybeck only altered his position on myself and shaft.ed, towards the end of the day.

I know you didnt directly say it. I'm drawing a logical conclusion from it, which is that it has nothing to do with me and is thus a null tell. Are you going to argue the point or no?

I don't think this is actually a point either way.

What I was saying was that dybeck had consistent attitudes to everyone, some more interesting than others, except for myself and shaft.ed.

If you say so. However, be aware that last time, all of your guesses based on Oman's list were wrong. (especially the part where you thought it indicated I was scum)

Yes, and since that I have learnt to be more careful about not becoming entrenched in my frameworks. I interpreted Oman's list as being an actual reflection of things, rather than doing what I should have done: trying to make sense of it and using it without becoming convinced that my thoughts corresponded to what had actually happened.

Alright. I guess if you're not basing it as reasoning towards me being scum I wont argue it. Especially since its your personal interpretation, something that even I can't argue against.

No. I reason towards you being scum for the purpose of argument, but the main purpose is to assess reactions and gather information. The best way to understand things is to debate, not to read.

So basically you're saying that you saw the list, saw a few possible scenarios that could explain his reasoning, saw one that gelled nicely with your own assumptions on him, and took it? Is this how you get all of your evidence? Find the possibility that conforms with your predetermined notions and advocate it?

My steps:
1) Look at the available evidence and find the outcome which seems most sensible
2) Investigate, accuse and attack based on that outcome. Since 486, I have learnt to make sure I remember that the outcome is only a framework.
3) Use the results of those inquiries as further sources of information so as to re-assess the validity of the original outcome and to alter as necessary

So youre on step three now, correct?

Yes. I am still arguing with you, because there is more I want to learn, but I have other ideas floating around which I shall bring to the fore shortly.

Ah. So basically you're saying that since I had one similar point to support a similar conclusion, the entire post was echoed from him. Got it. That totally makes sense.

It seemed to be your dominant reason for suspecting Orig.

Go and read the post again. It certainly was not my only reason, and far from the "dominant" one.

Here is post 988 (So I no longer need to trawl):

Shit shit shit. I had a huge post ligned up but my computer died. Don't worry, this isnt an excuse to get out of content. But it will be less content.

Alright. The AlyG claim? I believe it. Orig admitted to targetting CC, so it's pretty obvious Aly is telling the truth. On the other hand, I find Originality very unlikely. Firstly, I find Originality's argument that he had a gut feeling against carrot day 1, VERY unlikely, since he did not ONCE express any suspicions on CC. The bulk of Origs content is attacking lurkers..if he had suspicion of CC, wouldnt it make sense that he'd say so instead of attacking lurkers? The fact that he had other suspicions and went after lurkers makes me think that he is probably trying a little too hard to appear protown. Second, I find his claim that he killed on gut feeling night 1 very hard to believe. Even if it were his first game as vig, its certainly not his first on the site. I'm certain he knows that lynching on gut is bad for town, so why would he NK on gut? I just dont see why a protown vig would kill on so little...
Anyways, moving on, I find his claim that he had a gut feeling against CC even less likely when you look at this post (344) directly after night scene is revealed.

Uh... This is weird, because carrotcake was pretty quiet imo. I guess ima go with shaft.ed here, in that carrotcake must have scared someone enough into killing him... So AlyG would be a suspect, but i dont know if hes the only one carrotcake was after, so i will that, post in a min.

This definately doesnt sound like someone who had a gut feeling that he was scum. Also, there is this post (368):

I think this hasn't been brought up yet, but do we know for sure which death is mafia kill and which is the sk? I don't know if theres a set pattern here that a certain type of death will tell who killed who, so is there anything im missing here?

In this post, he 1) assumes there is an SK, not a vig, and 2) helps spread the opposite of his later claim by speculating about the SK's killing method. It seems very suspect.
So yeah. Orig is your SK, pretty sure he isnt a vig. His claim doesnt hold water.

vote: originality

The first huge section is about CC, in a similar vein to dybeck. The latter point is that he assumed there was a SK (which fits with him wanting to distance himself anyway). The same goes for the thing about CC being quiet.

The fact that you say "experienced enough to know its not a scumtell" is where I know I can discount what youre saying. Are you familiar with the concept of wifom? Ya know, taking what you think scum wouldnt do and doing it as scum? Besides, I would make the play as scum and town. Its good for town if I am town, it makes me look protown as scum because I do it as town. So what you've got there is a null point.

Not null, just unreadable. You do bandwagon a lot, that's true.

Null tell = unreadable in my opinion. If you cant draw conclusions on my alignment, then its null in relation to my alignment. But this point isnt worth arguing, as its far from relevant.

No. /ooc A nulltell is something inherently ambiguous in alignment. Something can be unreadable because of a particular player. A good example is Oman. He has done incredibly scummy bandwagoning here and in other games, but often does not get attacked purely because he gets recognised as being unreadable in relation to wagoning.

Ah. So basically you're saying that since I had one similar point to support a similar conclusion, the entire post was echoed from him. Got it. That totally makes sense.

In 988 you went after Orig on the basis of his gut feeling and the fact that he assumed SK. The former of these was dybeck's line and the latter is pretty meaningless.

Did you also see the posts where I outlined that he contradicts himself by showing that his gut pointed the other way? This is a third and entirely new point that I brought up. Even were you to win this point with me, what relevance does the fact that I saw the same faults in someones claim have to do with our alignment in relation to eachother?

Above.

I'm sorry, but the downplaying was justified. The fact that you saw the sense in this then should show you how true it is now. I'm not going to say that just because he was scum that all the arguments pointing in that direction were good ones. I believe a similar issue arose in 486 around I think seteal. Go back and read. I disputed all cases against him long after he was proven to be scum.

Wasn't Setael my mason partner in 486? I think you might mean Shanba...

But, as I have said, at the time I was losing faith myself, purely because it was going nowhere. Your downplaying of the points hit at the foundations of my case and caused me to lose my belief that dybeck was scum. I mean, all of those points are scumtells, of varying strength.

If you want to get into a metadebate, I'm all for it. But after the game please. I disagree with you on the validity of those scumtells. Are you going to tell me that my meta opinion on certain tells should show me to be scum or town in any individual game?

I'm just taking it for what it is worth: You neutralised a case on dybeck. That is a strong indictor of alignment. It is not confirmation, but it is something I need to address and deal with to better see what is going on here.

/kind of ooc, but maybe not: I just had a thought: Is it possible the reason we clash so much is that our playstyles are polar opposites? I focus on drawing out cases with evidence, often raising points I don't even consider conclusive, just to make argument and debate things and garner reactions and so on. In contrast, you seem to always play the role of a neutraliser; in that you don't even strike back at people, you just reduce everything to a thing on meta-opinion (at least with me). I'm just wondering how much of this is actually because our ideas are completely at odds?

Its not ambivalence. I said it wasnt convincing, ie I wouldnt vote for him under normal circumstances. I also said I would vote for him at deadline. I think thats a pretty clear cut idea of what I thought of it, pinpointing when I would and wouldnt vote him, and all.

This is getting into semantics. The "it's alright thing" is ambivalence and neutralisation of the issue. You don't defend, you don't attack. Of course your explanation is "sufficient", but it doesn't change your ambivalent stance.

ambivalence is defined by uncertainty...I gave a clear cut idea of when I would vote for him and when I wouldnt. It's not my fault you interpret this as being uncertain, though frankly, the fact that you do is ridiculous.

Because it downplays the case. You are neither for or against it, but you would support it when push comes to shove.

I was clear...I said it about two posts in that I was still against the Orig lynch.

I was having to argue pretty damn hard against the Orig lynch, since my only consistent supporter was shaft.ed. You did say you didn't want the lynch, I know that, but you still criticised our case against it without making it patently and consistently clear that you did not want Orig lynch. In that situation, where we were having to argue forcefully, it should have been obvious to you that anything you said in counter to us would be fuelling dybeck's cause.

Is this a bad thing? I was clear that I was against the lynch. I posted it and you missed it. The only result of "feuling the cause" as far as I can tell is a better read for you, which is good. Dont underestimate me Vollkan: I may be a bad scumhunter, but I certainly understand the value of getting reactions out of people (the reason I love bandwagoning).

Hmm..you made me think of something. I want to check on people's reactions to what you said.

My "critical" powers? Vollkan, there's a reason that I have a bad town record. I am very bad at scumhunting. The only real skill I have at mafia is defending myself (which I've only recently developed, since I started debate). I made it clear that I leaning towards yes, but was unsure. Also, do you really find it odd that someone who had been absent most of the game might have trouble pinning down his feelings on a claim?

Again, ambivalence. You are now justifying it on having been away. Shaft.ed and I had been attacking the claim and you still took the half-hearted approach.

Um, no. I said yes. I was unsure, but I gave an answer, despite my uncertainty. I am only blaiming the lingering uncertainty on my absense.

It's a sufficient explanation which I cannot refute. Moving on,

alright. is this something that you think a townie is unlikely to go through?

A townie should go through some degree of wavering, but you were consistently indecisive until things became cemented one way or the other. That is a scumtell. It is basically just allowing yourself to fall in with the majority without having to commit to anything.

This is untrue, first of all. I've made several independant points in this game, though I admit my absense has made it hard to get definitive reads. Also, this is not a scumtell, or at least it isnt for me. I have a habit of falling in with the crowd as town. Check my town games, you'll find its a recurring theme, though I'm trying to fix it. Once out of the early stages, my helpfulness to the town is mostly used up. Again, something I'm trying to fix.

As above.

Hard stance and attack are different vollkan. you know this.

Semantics. You know what I mean. All day you had been "tentative" about anything to do with dybeck or Orig unless the majority opinion had formed hard on something. Your only definite stance/hard stance/proper attack on dyebck came at the end.

I still disagree. I had formed my opinion on Orig within my very first post back into the game. And again, I contend the validity of this as a scum tell.

We're running in circles now. I wanted continual definite stance, and you say that you had formed it in the beginning, to which I say you should have affirmed it.

Anyway,

Unvote

The debate has reached the double-rebuttal limit and nothing substantative has emerged.

I'm saying his play was not crappy. I'm saying that it was an attempt to make it look crappy. His indignation when I called him a relative noob should reinforce this. Also, even if the possibility of there being cop is uncertain, an attempt to out him would be a good play on his part. It seems to have worked since they managed to hit cop on the following night. I don't think someone who's been playing for two years really "blunders through day 2" anymore.

Again, cock-up before conspiracy. I don't like arguments like this because they are a higher order of wifom.

[vollkan]

I'm not going to address everything, since you seem to agree that most of it is just me having a different view on things to you.

Are you saying you form your framework on accident?

No, just that I don't have an "agenda"; which, semantically, suggests I am doing it for a deliberate purpose of getting a player lynched. I look at the evidence, find what seems most sensible to me, build a picture of the game from that and judge the likely town and scum, and then I start arguing with people.

See, the thing is Elias, when I start the argument with you, I really have no intention other than to argue. My purpose is not to score a lynch, it is to spark something which can help me judge the person and thereby try and reform my model.

um, no. You dont explain why seeing the same faults in a claim is scummy. Also, you did not respond to the fact that I raised a third point which dybeck had not touched. saying "above" is not sufficient.

Which is the third point? (just bold it or something)

No, it isnt a strong indicator of alignment, its a strong indicator of me seeing a bad case and shooting it down. You even backed down. My neutralisation was well founded. I shoot down bad cases when I see them, regardless of alignment, because I play that way as town, and can blend in as scum that way, based on my town play. So as I would say, null tell. As you would say, unreadable.

As I have said, I backed down because I was losing confidence myself and then your criticism cemented my doubt. As for the scumtell thing, this is again a difference of opinion. I see all of those as scumtells, whereas you see most as negligible.

First, the downplaying was a justified action regardless of my alignment. Second, what does it matter if I'm for or against it entirely? An attempt to say that I must either be for or against it at all times, rather then vote if need be, but not otherwise, is really an oversimplification of how the game is played. Or at least, how I play it.

Hmm...playstyle difference again. Unless I am keeping something hidden for a purpose, I am usually fairly blunt about whether or not I think something is worthwile or not. You're much more defensive than I am.

"higher order"? What makes it a "higher order"? All it requires is for dybeck to create an illusion that he is a poor player in order to orchestrate a mislynch...I've done it before. Its really not that uncommon.

Right. It is wifom for me to say that dybeck's behaviour points at alignment. It deepens the wifom even more to say that dybeck played in a consciously bad manner in order to implicate yourself.

[vollkan]

Godfather is very common, RB less so, and any other possibility even more less so.

Hmmm... Ok... what about this then... Vollkan says Lucienne hasn't posted in X amount of time... So how can she be the Godfather? Question I would like Vollkan to explain seeing as how he "Knows" Lucienne hasn't been around for so long... seems like something worth investigating.

a) Looking at her last post
b) Profile --> Find all posts by Lucienne

You're reaching.

[vollkan]

Korlash, would you mind posting a scumdar with at least one sentence per person?

[vollkan]

I've read the Gemelli/Elias debate and I have comments to make. Unlike the Elias/Korlash pissing match, this is relevant.

I have issues with both of you.

(1) We can split hairs all day on whether your posts are appeals to emotion and ad hominem. You posted that the case on you was not vote-worthy because we are in (or close to) LYLO. I viewed your post as being motivated by a desire to raise uncertainty about the case against you; you claim that your intent was simply to advocate caution. You claim that asking someone "are you dense" is not the same thing as telling someone "you are dense." (I'm trying to figure out how you came by that way of thinking. Are you syphillytic? Does mental illness run in your family? Were you dropped on your head as a child?) Ultimately, all I was trying to say is that I am not going to allow the specter of LYLO to influence my decision of who is the best lynch candidate today. Dead horse; needs no further beating.

I read over your debate on this point

Elias, I understand what you were saying, that in our situation we don't want to risk a lynch on weak connexions. Frankly, however, I fail to see how that concern is relevant at this stage. Your lynch was not impending, so why raise the prospect? At this stage (non-deadline and no wagon) it is blatant fear-mongering. I've done the same thing myself as scum, because it is an effective means of creating doubt.

Additionally, calling someone "dense" is not ad hom if you then proceed to logically deconstruct your opponent's position. Here, however, Elias's rebuttal was (uncharacteristically) flawed.

We have:

(1) Dybeck's preferential treatment of you for the entire game, and
(2) Your different responses to the cases against Oman/Korlash and Dybeck

That's not "essentially nothing." We have exactly one scum player confirmed at this point. I believe that the best leads we can get should be drawn from that player's behavior towards others, and from others' behaviors towards him. Right now, the links between you and Dybeck are stronger than those between Oman/Korlash and Dybeck. Change my mind!

Gemelli, you keep talking about "preferential treatment". Please define and give examples.

That being said, I will now add to the Korlash case:
does anyone think the way that Korlash came into the game seemed a little suspicious? His first real post in the game, 1087 I think (4th actual post if youre using the parser) he makes absolutely NO mention of any cases on Dybeck, but simply comes into the game with all guns firing at Vollkan. Am I the only one who is reads this as a big fat distraction? He makes mention of Orig also, a smaller issue, but ignores Dybeck all the way up until his 11th post, post 1125. Thats a damn long time. And even then, he only mentions him as a possibility of being Vollkans second scumbuddy. He continues to hole this opinion for some time, without ever really backing it up. In his 48th post, 1267, he lists Dybeck as only 45% chance of being scum, despite considering him an almost certain third member of the scumteam for some time. In post 1279, suddenly Dybeck is listed as his top suspect (with me alongside). Wait, I thought a second ago you just werent completely certain on his claim, and had him at 45%? Also, in 55, 1310, suddenly shafted is rated near last on his LoS, and several players below Dybeck on his LoS he lists stronger reasons for suspecting them. In his 59th, 1334, he finally votes Dybeck, for being unhelpful. Wow. Thats all for now, but does anyone else see a completely unexplained shift over to Dybeck being #1 as the town began to feel that way?

This is all valid and has my endorsement.

For now, I am eagerly awaiting Korlash's next post, containing

scumdar and responses to the accusations levelled against him

(bolded because people avoiding things pisses me off).

[vollkan]

Elias, I understand what you were saying, that in our situation we don't want to risk a lynch on weak connexions. Frankly, however, I fail to see how that concern is relevant at this stage. Your lynch was not impending, so why raise the prospect? At this stage (non-deadline and no wagon) it is blatant fear-mongering. I've done the same thing myself as scum, because it is an effective means of creating doubt.

First, I think it's clear that we are very different in terms of playstyle. I personally have not done this as scum and I'm not doing it as scum now. Anyways, if you go back and read his post, he sounded like he had pretty much made up his mind.

Why did you raise the LYLO issue then? Also, what do you mean by "he had pretty much made up his mind"?

It's flawed how exactly? I believe bringing up what I did was very justified, and I stand by that it was not an appeal to emotion.

Then explain what the point of it was.

[vollkan]

That's odd. I thought I made a post in response to Korlash 2 hours ago. I must have closed the window before submitting.

First off... My new "scumdar" More accurately termed "Suspiciondar"

What you have posted is not even a "suspiciondar". It seems to just be a list of your personal grievances against people.

Here, let me simplify it for you
1) Lucienne- Lurker
2) AlyG- Lurker
3) Vollkan- Not scum but I am going to suspect him anyway to keep him under control
4) Gem- No opinion other than is a "strong player"
5) Elias- Pro-town since my case applies to Korlash also.
6) Orig- SK or vig, either way no point pushing this way

Note this is not my "scum list" It is the list of people I would like to hear more from or the people I am most likely to analyze very carefully what they say.

In which case, it is not a "suspiciondar" at all, by your own admission. Seriously, you aren't scumhunting AT ALL. Ever since I shot down your BS case against me, you have just been quietly trying to flow with the majority and, here, are proving that you have no desire to be of assistance.

I cannot actually post a scum list I am afraid. Right now I am slightly biased because I have heard nothing from Lucienne... and so I would rank her very high just because of that, also as a method of self preservation I would rank Elias high too simply because I would rather he be attacked them me. And because I do not want to post a list that I do not fully believe in, or am not fully committed to, I will have to respectfully decline to post it ATM.

Oh good! Because it is

so

pro-town to be willing to support suspicion on someone else just to pull heat off yourself. There is massive WIFOM caused by the fact you are admitting this horrendously anti-town play.

Again - you don't ACTUALLY suspect anybody, but you are just trying to fit in to avoid lynch.

I very much hope that at least satisfies Vollkan for now because I do not want to argue with him over why I have not given my scumdar...

Well, your response gives me a LOT of information nonetheless; though not the type I had in mind.

As for my shift over to dybeck.. DUH! Are you stupid? When the town keeps giving case after case of evidence against someone and he does not defend himself.. of course I am going to shift to him.. The more you guys show me he is scum, the more I believe it. I mean that is the whole point of this game. Player A gives evidence against player B. Player C supports it, and player D, seeing this, believe this, and adding it to his own suspicions, then ranks Player B accordingly.

This is complete bullshit. The town is uninformed. Thus, a townie would be idiotic to follow somebody else's suspicions unless: a) The reasons for the suspicion were objectively apparent; and/or b) The person they were intending on following appears obviously pro-town (eg. me to shaft.ed in this game)

"Follow-the-leader" is anti-town.

As much as i would love to piss you off right now... I think I more or less covered the big thing. If i missed anything please kindly enlighten me to it. If not... I eagerly await how you plan on condemning me today...

Interesting, you are pre-empting suspicion.

Moreover, it isn't what you haven't covered, so much as what you have totally dropped; namely your case against me. As I attacked it, you basically backpedalled to making it a policy stance against my play, and yet now, quote

I do not think Vollkan is scum.

You're being completely inconsistent in regards to me and you have been so for some time now.

On another topic, it's been an atypical few days since Vollkan posted here. Does anyone know if he's OK? Should we be sending someone to check up on him at home? (Kidding; I know he's posting elsewhere on the site. Given the tempo he set earlier, it just seems odd for us to have these discussions without hearing regular counterpoint from him.)

No. I was watching this thread like a hawk. I was merely waiting for Korlash to post his suspicions, and I didn't want to interject into the rest of the exchange until I had heard them.

I am thinking of the town here. If I am lynched, then that is one more town down. This gives Orig a greater incentive to NK. Meaning we could lose two more town tonight. And that is a loss. Now this is not ironclad what will happen. But I will fight tooth and nail to live today because I do not want us to lynch another town right now.

Nice appeal to emotion. "thinking of the town", "loss", "tooth and nail"; you've got me on the edge of my seat here

No, the last time I made a scum list based solely on my person feelings Vollkan rammed it down my throat. Sure, I agree that is a great form of scum hunting and what not. But because of that I refuse to post any scumdar that implies vote/lynch candidates until I actually have reasons for it.

And I will ram it down your throat again and again until you actually make genuine attempts at scumhunting. It is ridiculous that you think you can simply get away with not having opinions about who is scum.

[vollkan]

Sorry for this double-post:
Korlash, assuming Lucienne is vanilla town (I know that this is not necessarily the case), who are your most likely

scum

?

I severely doubt that Lucienne posting will somehow grant you some sort of immediate enlightenment that allows you to compose a scumdar. Thus, I will not accept "I need to hear from Lucienne" as an explanation. This is a simple question, and I want a simple, definite answer.

[vollkan]

Fine...

Scum would probably be Elias and Gem.. You want reasons go screw yourself... But counting Lucienne, vollkan, AlyG, and Orig out of the picture I am left with them. Happy now?

Relatively happy

One other question I just remembered that I forgot to ask: Do you think it is likely that Lucienne is a vanilla, given her behaviour and the fact she had no night action?

[vollkan]

Streeflo - Korlash is voting Elias, not me

Like I said I woudl rather lynch Elias then me so Vote: Elias

Just a few posts ago you said:

5) Elias- I think most of Vollkan's case relied on what Dybeck did and not so much what Elias himself did. Also I think the "links to Dybeck" case is better used against myself hen against him. And seeing as how I am town I tend to feel Elias is town too and Dybeck has just been trying to frame us up.

In other words, you basically knocked back the bulk of the case against Elias, since you said it could apply to you also. And now, you are voting Elias. Fine, you did say you would prefer Elias to yourself, but that doesn't change the fact that you are voting not for suspicion or pressure but just because you don't want to be lynched, it seems.

HoS: Korlash

I'm not going to vote you, because that may risk a quicklynch.

Korlash, Lucienne is not going to be posting anytime soon. Please post a SCUMdar, with evidential reasons and stop finding BS excuses.

[vollkan]

Given the confirmation of a cop and at least one non-mafia killing role, I think it's reasonable to assume that the Mafia has at least one power role among the two remaining players, whether it be Godfather, Roleblocker, Tracker, or something else.

As I said, GF is most likely, then RB, and then tracker/others.

Obviously, our best course of action once again is to lynch mafia. If my math is right, we can get away with a single mislynch OR a single misvig (results in LYLO), but not a mislynch+misvig (bcs LYLO, wcs 2:2:1). Correct?

As you say, we are either 5:2 or 4:2:1.

From 5:2:

Mislynch = 4:2
MafNK = 3:2
-MisVig = 2:2
Now, if Orig is killed by the mafia, we have lost. If Orig is not killed, then we No Lynch, Orig has to kill a mafioso and not be killed himself (highly unlikely) to make it 1:1 draw. Since Orig has already been outed, this scenario is not going to happen.

From 4:2:1

Mislynch = 3:2:1
MafNK = 2:2:1
-SK NK town = 1:2:1. LOSS. Mafia win.
-SK NK mafia = 2:1:1 Yuck. We need cross-kills to win.

* Korlash
* Elias
* Lucienne
* AlyG
* Vollkan
* Gemelli

I've listed those players in my current order of suspicion. I am fairly confident that there is at least one mafia among the top 3, and probably two. AlyG could potentially be a scum tracker, and Vollkan could have arranged an elaborate ruse to drive a lynch of his mafia partner, but I think those scenarios are less likely.

My own list:
* Korlash 75%
* Elias 70%
* Gemelli 65%
* Lucienne 65%
* AlyG 0% due to claim
* Orig 0% due to claim
* Vollkan 0%

Now, if there are 2 scum left, I am confident they are in my top four (Korlash, ELias, Gemelli and Lucienne). However, the probability is only 50%.

Now: the mafia most likely left Orig alone last night because he did not pose an immediate threat to them. So first I would like to suggest that at a minimum, if we DO lynch Mafia today, Orig should be allowed to select a NK target at his discretion -- obviously, considering the input from all players first -- without fear of reprisal.

If we lynch mafia today:
In 5:2,
Maflynch = 5:1
MafNK = 4:1
-Orig NK town = 3:1
-Orig NK scum = 4:0

Here, whilst it is true that Orig succeeding could cause us to win instantly, a misvig causes us to be at 3:1, where a mislynch will cause a loss, unless Orig survives in which case we can still win.

4:1 grants us the ability to mislynch (to 2:1) and then no lynch twice (3:1, 2:1).
3:1 grants us one No Lynch (2:1)

Now, what is the advantage of Orig NKing? We win. But, we win anyway if we lynch successfully the following day. I would personally prefer to have that power in the hands of more people than just Orig. Even if we do have the consensus thing, I would still prefer a lynch. Plus, if things look dicey, we can always No Lynch.

In 4:2:1,
Maflynch = 4:1:1
MafNK town (wcs) = 3:1:1
-Orig NK town = 2:1:1
-Orig NK scum = 3:0:1

Frankly, as we can see here, Orig is in a bad spot no matter what happens. For us, it really is better if Orig does not NK, since we can then move to lynch mafia (it is more likely a lynch will get mafia successfully than an Orig NK) and then lynch Orig in the ensuing 2:1.

So, I do not think Orig should NK tonight if we successfully lynch today.

If we mislynch, it gets dicey. What should Orig do in that situation? I think that comes down to how comfortable the town is with its suspicions. Is it worth re-introducing the town consensus list idea? If the town has a general consensus on the top 3 most suspicious players in the game, is it worth having Orig take a shot at one of those players, even in the event of a mislynch?

Depends...

In 5:2,
Mislynch = 4:2
MafNK = 3:2
-Orig NK town = 2:2
-Orig NK scum = 3:1

All the mafia has to do is NK Orig, and if he fails we lose. I would really not want Orig to NK in this scenario

In 4:2:1,
Mislynch = 3:2:1
MafNK town = 2:2:1
-Orig NK town = 1:2:1 LOSS Mafia win
-Orig NK scum = 2:1:1 Yuck
MafNK Orig = 3:2:0
-Orig NK town = 2:2:0 LOSS Mafia win
-Orig NK scum = 2:1:0 LYLO

Here, again, the best scenario is 2:1, but the alternatives are all worse than the No SKNK option. Again, Orig should not NK, since it runs the risk of a loss.

[vollkan]

I believe you meant that 4:1 grants us the ability to mislynch OR to no-lynch twice, correct? After a mislynch to 3:1, the mafia NK gets us to 2:1.

Yes. The "and" should be an "or".

I can see the logic behind what you're saying. Essentially, if Orig makes a NK, he decides the fate of the town on his own. If he does not NK, the town gets to decide as a group.

Exactly. When it gets down to it, I will always favour the reasoning of a majority over that of a single individual.

The downside to going the no-lynch route, of course, is that it lets the Mafia decide which townies get to make the final vote that decides the game.

Yes. To be clear, I am not saying we should No Lynch twice; but it is a valuable card to have up our sleeves.

Oh, and Elias (as well as Lucienne and AlyG if you still exist ) could you post a listing similar to the ones that Gem, Kor and myself have?

[vollkan]

I thought I would try something new, rather than the area tag thing last time which was cluttered.

Suspects go down, and the "suspecters" go across. The total column is the sum of all the numbers. Obviously, the higher the number, the less suspected a person is.

*Korlash has said Lucienne is either top spot, or third (if he accepts the family emergency thing). For numbers-sake, I am going to give Lucienne a 2 from Korlash (the average of 1 and 3). If you have any major objections to this, I will redo the table.
*Elias gave both AlyG and Orig 5-6. I will give them each 5.5 for this table. Again, any objections and I will fix the table.
*Gem did not give any listing for Orig. I will just give him a 6, same as AlyG.

[mrow][col]

Elias_the_thief

[col]

Korlash

[col]

AlyG

[col]

Gemelli

[col]

Lucienne

[col]

vollkan

[col]

Originality

[col]

Totals

Elias_the_thief

[col] 7 [col] 1 [col] awol [col] 2 [col] awol [col] 2 [col] 2 [col]

14

Korlash

[col]1[col] 7 [col] awol [col] 1 [col] awol [col] 1 [col] 3[col]

13

AlyG

[col]5.5[col]6[col]7[col]6[col]awol[col]6[col]6[col]

36.5

Gemelli

[col]2[col]2[col]awol[col]7[col]awol[col]3[col]4[col]

18

Lucienne

[col]3[col]2[col]awol[col]3[col]7[col]4[col]1[col]

20

vollkan

[col]4[col]4[col]awol[col]5[col]awol[col]7[col]5[col]

25

Originality

[col]5.5[col]3[col]awol[col]6[col]awol[col]5[col]7[col]

26.5

Thus, in order:

Korlash
Elias
Gemelli
Lucienne
vollkan
Originality
AlyG

There are comments I wish to make on other aspects of this, but I can't really make them until we have a complete picture (*

Kicks AlyG and Lucienne

*)

Oh, and Korlash, could you please explain what happened to your case against me?

[vollkan]

Grr...double post:

Korlash, why do you rank Orig at #3?

[vollkan]

===
I typed this about 3 hours ago, but forgot to post. Fortunately, I had it copied
===

What I like about your approach is that you've gone ahead and assumed that every player will vote themselves last on the list. The thing I *don't* like is that calculating the points directly from the positions is that last-place votes are given more weight than the first-place votes, which is why I reversed the point order.

1) I actually am now going to scrap the automatic last vote for self, because it is meaningless and just boosts every figure by 7
2) Calculating from the positions is no different to what you are doing. It's just that my system has the highest scoring people being the least suspect. In your system, the numbers are just inverted, it means the same thing.

The big difference in our lists appears to be regarding Lucienne.

Seeing as Korlash has now put Lucienne at number 3, and Gemelli has clarified his order for me (your initial list did not include Orig).

Here is the new table:

[mrow][col]

Elias_the_thief

[col]

Korlash

[col]

AlyG

[col]

Gemelli

[col]

Lucienne

[col]

vollkan

[col]

Originality

[col]

Totals

Elias_the_thief

[col] - [col] 1 [col] awol [col] 2 [col] awol [col] 2 [col] 2 [col]

7

Korlash

[col]1[col] - [col] awol [col] 1 [col] awol [col] 1 [col] 3[col]

6

AlyG

[col]5.5[col]6[col]-[col]4[col]awol[col]6[col]6[col]

27.5

Gemelli

[col]2[col]2[col]awol[col]-[col]awol[col]3[col]4[col]

11

Lucienne

[col]3[col]3[col]awol[col]3[col]-[col]4[col]1[col]

14

vollkan

[col]4[col]5[col]awol[col]5[col]awol[col]-[col]5[col]

19

Originality

[col]5.5[col]4[col]awol[col]6[col]awol[col]5[col]-[col]

20.5

Again, in order

Korlash - 6
Elias - 7
Gemelli - 11
Lucienne - 14
Vollkan - 19
Originality - 20.5
AlyG - 27.5

Observations:
* Interesting that the two closest people are also the two highest suspected: Korlash (6 points) and Elias (7 points).
* My top 3 aligns exactly to the collective top 3. I am the only person for which this phenomenon occurs.

Some questions for people:
1) @ Elias: Why does Gemelli merit a number 2 position on your list, and why do you find Korlash more suspicious?
2) @ Gemelli: Why does Elias merit a number 2 position on your list, and why do you find Korlash more suspicious?
3) @ Korlash: Why do you suspect Elias and Gemelli (in that order) and do you think they are likely scumbuddies
4) @ Orig: Why do you suspect Lucienne so highly?
5) @ Lucienne and AlyG: Could you PLEASE post a list?!?!?

[vollkan]

Okay.

Now, I notice my list differs from Gemelli's. I think the reason for this is that Gemelli has included each person's view of themself, which I decided to drop because it is meaningless (except in the strange case of Korlash...) and also because I have not just assigned 4 for X and Y.

[vollkan]

Gemelli merits the number two spot in an absense of anyone better, mainly. AlyG and orig can be written off, I think. With Korlash my number one, that leaves Vollkan, Lucienne, and Gemelli. Lucienne is really hard to get a read on, but I didnt find anything particularly scummy about her few posts. Between Vollkan and Gemelli, Gemelli is the obvious choice. Also, coupled with the fact that she claims the case against me and against Korlash are comparable, when the main beef on me is what Dybeck did, and against Korlash is what Dybeck did, his own wierd behavior, and the behavior of Oman. I think if Korlash comes up scum, Gemelli is pretty certainly our scum.

You didn't answer the second part of my question: Why do you think Korlash is scummier than Gemelli?

I have more comment below.

The two are pretty much neck and neck in my opinion. Korlash gets the edge due to the problems I've discussed previously with Oman's play, and because his explanation for why he failed to mention Dybeck until late in D2 does not match with the facts as laid out in this thread. It's to Korlash's credit that he didn't try to justify this discrepancy, but called it a mistake. However, for posting something provably untrue, he gets my top spot and my vote.

The cases against Elias (yours and mine) haven't been disproved so much as minimized as "possible but certainly not definite." I found Elias's explanations to be overly contentious/defensive in tone, and I'm a little bugged that the amount of content he posts to our game seems to be directly proportional to the amount of suspicion that he's under.

And you didn't ask, but Lucienne gets my 3rd spot by process of elimination. I am inclined to believe AlyG's claim, I don't think you are Mafia, and Originality is most likely either the Vig or an SK.

Korlash, no time to reply to your scumbuddy hypotheses tonight, but I'll try to get to it at some point this weekend.

What problems with Oman's play? List them for me please.

Also, it's

very

interesting that you insert a positive comment about Korlash ("It's to his credit..." and a negative comment about Elias ("...overly contentious/defensive...")

As for scum buddies, yeah. Like I said for the millonethic time... They are the only two people I am left with after you told me to write Lucenne off as vanilla. So as of this second they HAVE to be the scum pair in my mind. But... I still don't think Lucienne is automatically vanilla cause it is all just speculation about what Shat.ed may or may not have implied at times.

I didn't tell you to write Lucienne off.

Korlash, assuming Lucienne is vanilla town (I know that this is not necessarily the case), who are your most likely scum?

It was just to see how you would reason in that scenario, in that you said Elias and Gem were scum (and now you have confirmed that the order is #1 Elias, #2 Gem).

Also, I think if Elias turns out scum, Gem is most likely his buddy. My big reasoning here: Earlier today Gem seemed to be afraid we were all going to jump on him for Advocating Dybeck. But after he sees Vollkan going after Elias, he goes after him hard, then when Vollkan switches to me, he quickly drops Elias and comes after me hard too, even places a vote on me. To me, this makes me think he had decided to bus his partner today in order to keep pressure off himself, then he switched to me because I was an easy town lynch. However, if Elias turns out town I am left at a crossroads. If that is the case then I can see Gem doing the same Self-Preservation thing I am known for. And in order to keep the discussion off himself he went along with the group. And if that is the case I am left with Lucienne. The only person I can even think to tie in with Lucienne is Orig and I know how bad that would blow over for me.

Very good. I am glad you noticed this also. This was what I was referring to bey

There are comments I wish to make on other aspects of this, but I can't really make them until we have a complete picture

(*Kicks AlyG and Lucienne*)

Now, I'm utterly gobsmacked by this, but Krap Logik has actually stumbled upon an excellent point.

This is the part where I give my extra comments that I referred to above. So listen up.

Are Gemelli and Elias our Remaining Scum?

I opened this day by looking at dybeck connexions. Out of that, I found Gemelli and Elias to be the most suspect, followed by Lucienne (

@Gemelli: Why did Lucienne drop back to number 3?

). Now, Elias did as Elias does best and neutralised it by dismissing it as WIFOM, the only sort of defence possible against the sort of theorising I was making. I then made my case against Elias personally in 1390.

At this point Gemelli enters, being very clear that he thinks "Elias and Lucienne" are the most likely suspects. The significant point about that is that it is not Elias in isolation, and he makes no indication as to who is scummier.

Then we have Elias's rebuttal where he offered his explanations for my problems. We've debated this ad nauseum, but the fundamental thing I note from reading is that none of my points were demonstrably "wrong", it was simply that Elias usually disputed my interpretation of things, which is always going to be disputable in a game of mafia. (I think that is what makes Elias so good at defence, in that he is able to reduce issues to points that cannot be debated).

In 1397, Korlash says he doesn't "fully understand" my Elias case, and promises to reread and comment. He continues this in 1415, saying he either disagrees with my points, or agrees with Elias. Korlash seems influenced by his belief that I make too many assumptions.

In 1424, Gemelli returns and presents a rather scathing attack on Elias (going into caps-lock fury at one point). Elias is his top suspect, followed by Lucienne and THEN Korlash.

In 1425, Korlash:

Well if you both insist it then there has to be something on this Elias thing... He honestly never suspected him at all? That could change a few things...

Then again it could have been him trying to buddy up with someone... Dang I guess I will look over this PBPA thing you got and check it out myself...

Also let's say Elias is the second scum, who would most likely be the third then?

This post is rather scummy. Korlash suggests there may be something to the case, purely because Gemelli has supported it. Moreover, he moves to immediately wonder at who the next most likely scum is.

1431 is by Gemelli and he decides to review dybeck/Korlash. In 1444, he provides some evidence for Elias/Korlash

1460 by Gemelli will be quoted due to some interesting language choices.

Elias, since we're down to just seven players in the game, each of us is naturally coming under closer scrutiny from the others.

Believe it or not, I do find it plausible that you are pro-town and finding yourself in a bad situation. However, I think that if you ARE in that situation,

1) you would serve the town (and yourself)

best by advancing theories on who the remaining scum are. So far, you've defended yourself -- all well and good, but tell us,

2) who SHOULD we be focusing on,

if not you? If you were to place the rest of us in a scummiest-to-towniest list, what would the order be, and why?

1) The town is separate from Elias.
2) This looks like a plea for direction

Then, in 1463, we see Elias raise Korlash as the best choice.

Gemelli and Elias have a debate around 1475

Bolded edits are by vollkan

Does it bother you that the "evidence" towards me being with Dybeck depends entirely on wifom interpretation, and could mean entirely the opposite of the way Vollkan is interpreting it? (pretty likely, because I'm town). I'm starting to think you're our third scum. I've already presented evidence as to Korlash having ties to Dy, though nothing compared to what Vollkan did. Second, I'm pretty sure we're in LYLO here *at the very least, potentially). Are you really going to trust the game deciding lynch on the fact that theres nothing better then a weak connection case?

Appealing to emotion by raising the fear of a possible (improbable) LYLO, and by making a veiled threat to go after me as scum, does nothing to bolster your argument, nor does it affect my current perception of you. Let's move on.

In effect, Gemelli makes an attack here, but also says it does nothing to alter his perception. Kid-gloving, in other words.

Most of my suspicion against you boils down to the single key point we've been talking about since D3 started: Dybeck treated you differently than every single player remaining in the game. I think this is notable.

So far, what I've seen in response is conjecture on the other side of the fence: he COULD have been doing this as an elaborate plot to frame you. This is true. But it's just as plausible to me that he simply failed to bus you until he had already committed to locking in on Originality, at which point it was too late for him to switch gears without dooming himself.

I don't think this is an ironclad argument either way. What I'm saying is that it does create a serious level of suspicion in my mind that you may be mafia. While I agree that

Korlash's behavior does inspire suspicion, I would not go so far as to say that the case against him is markedly stronger than the case against you.

Both could currently be described as "weak connection cases" at this point. Fortunately, we're not under a deadline and there's plenty of time left to talk turkey.

Note: Gemelli thinks the case against Korlash on Korlash's BEHAVIOUR is not markedly stronger than that on Elias. He calls them both "weak connexion cases".

One point that we haven't really discussed: you took the time to analyze and respond to Vollkan's consolidated case against Dybeck at some length. But you needed to be prompted to look at shaft.ed's summary case against Oman, and did not look at the additional points I raised vs. Oman at all (though you said you were going to). Again, one interpretation of this would be that you had a vested interest in poking holes in the Dybeck case, but didn't see any reason to interfere with the case against Oman. What is your side of the story there?

A few side points for other players ...

Korlash:

In response to post 1453, I don't think anyone is suggesting that the mafia has both a Godfather AND a roleblocker. I was simply pointing out that there is a possibility that one of those roles exists on the mafia side.

All:

I agree with Originality's point that shaft.ed had no clear reason to investigate Lucienne N1, based on either his D1 posts or the town consensus on the most suspicious players. I also agree that his behavior suggests that if he got an innocent result on anyone, it was Vollkan. But applying the same logic, why would he have investigated Vollkan's predecessor? Can we deduce anything about who shaft.ed might have investigated based on his D1 posts? (I do think it's safe to assume that whoever he investigated, the result came back innocent.)

In 1484, Gem attacks Korlash for the power role stuff.

1487, Elias continues the debate with Gem and then also adds to the case on Korlash. This debate continues for some posts, and doesn't actually move anywhere vote/FoS-wise.

Now, skipping right to the current stuff: I am seeing a pseudo-FriendOfScum tell in regards to Gemelli and Elias having Korlash at number 1 and each other at number 2. This is only compounded upon by Elias's latest thing talking about how if Korlash is scum, Elias is also.

However, and this is my point of conflict, the case against Korlash is very good.

Thus, I am kind of stuck between these as my two most likely scum pairs:

Korlash/Lucienne
Gemelli/Elias

[vollkan]

Why do you think that the Korlash/Gemelli case is not a strong possibility?

I do think it is a strong possibility, it just isn't in my top 2.

Basically, the behaviour I am trying to understand is Gemelli suspecting:
#1 Elias
#2 Lucienne
#3 Korlash

And then having this somehow change to Korlash, whom now both Elias and Gemelli suspect. Now, I grant you that Gemelli's behaviour in attacking and voting Korlash could very well be bussing, however I would find bussing of that intensity rather odd when neither Korlash nor Gemelli was under any imminent threat. I mean, Gemelli was in the midst of a debate with Elias and then he FoSes Korlash in one post and then changes this to a vote for Korlash (not with a thoroughly-explained vote either) in the very next post. My initial thought was that it was being used for some research purpose, but that is obviously not the case given the time that has elapsed.

The only substantial intermediate change was my attacking Korlash in 1514. However, it was hardly such that I could envisage scumGemelli dropping his case on Elias to roll his partner.

Lucienne's latest is something else I need to factor in to my considerations, but I will wait to see how things unfold with her reading.

I have Gemelli as my second because I feel the case on Korlash is stronger. If I can;t go back and form my own reasons for thinking someone is scummy this late in the game, I probably wont have them top of list. Anyways, if me and Gemelli both have eachother as number two, why should you be concerned with our link? Tomorrow one of us would be lynched anyways, so you'd get scum.

If Korlash is town and is lynched today, that makes us open D4 at 3:2 (bcs). On the off-chance that my theory is wrong in that scenario, then we would lose outright by mislynching. That's why I am concerned.

Anyway, with Lucienne's arrival, I update the table, and I will use Gemelli's "8-X" mode of calculating scores.

[mrow][col]

Elias_the_thief

[col]

Korlash

[col]

AlyG

[col]

Gemelli

[col]

Lucienne

[col]

vollkan

[col]

Originality

[col]

Score

Elias_the_thief

[col] - [col] 1 [col] awol [col] 2 [col] 2 [col] 2 [col] 2 [col]

31

Korlash

[col]1[col] - [col] awol [col] 1 [col] 1 [col] 1 [col] 3[col]

33

AlyG

[col]5.5[col]6[col]-[col]4[col]6[col]6[col]6[col]

14.5

Gemelli

[col]2[col]2[col]awol[col]-[col]3[col]3[col]4[col]

26

Lucienne

[col]3[col]3[col]awol[col]3[col]-[col]4[col]1[col]

26

vollkan

[col]4[col]5[col]awol[col]5[col]4[col]-[col]5[col]

17

Originality

[col]5.5[col]4[col]awol[col]6[col]5[col]5[col]-[col]

14.5

Again, in order

Korlash - 33
Elias - 31
Gemelli - 26
Lucienne - 26
Vollkan - 17
Originality - 14.5
AlyG - 14.5

What is interesting here is that Korlash and ELias are very close, then there is a drop to Gemelli and Lucienne, who are the same, then there is an event further drop to myself, Orig and AlyG.

[vollkan]

I have Gemelli as my second because I feel the case on Korlash is stronger. If I can;t go back and form my own reasons for thinking someone is scummy this late in the game, I probably wont have them top of list. Anyways, if me and Gemelli both have eachother as number two, why should you be concerned with our link? Tomorrow one of us would be lynched anyways, so you'd get scum.

If Korlash is town and is lynched today, that makes us open D4 at 3:2 (bcs). On the off-chance that my theory is wrong in that scenario, then we would lose outright by mislynching. That's why I am concerned.

I'm saying that the fact that we have eachother number two should rule out the possibility of us being scum together, because it ensures scum lynched tomorrow, which is a stupid move.

I don't think it does rule Gem/Elias out, at all. If you two are scum, then you have only 2 feasible targets today: Korlash and Lucienne. That puts you in a tight spot either way. Thus, you could either split and go one each, or both go for one. Both are feasible, since no matter which of Korlash or Lucienne was lynched, it would confirm to me that at least one of you was scum.

I summarized my issues with Oman's play in post 1055, and summarized/re-rated them in post 1444. Oman dropped out before he got a chance to respond to my points, and I was not convinced by Korlash's attempts to rationalize the issues.

Okay. I will read over this at some point and scrutinise if I have problems

Like I would be dumb enough to let a slip happen with my "partner" if and when I am mafia. I may seem dumb, act like an idiot, and have the IQ of a buffalo on Crack but I know how to protect my allies. I suppose Elias is trying to bus you by saying it, and I just happened to call the truth. Or perhaps we have all be hoodwinked by Orig and Lucienne? Anything is possible I suppose... 'Cept for maybe Vollkan being scum...

Mistakes happen, Korlash. The other thing is that I get a whiff that you are buddying up to me, either to draw heat onto me, or to stop me pushing against you, because you seem absolutely convinced I am not scum.

[vollkan]

I've been watching. I made the second-last post, and Gem's response really had nothing in it that was worth commenting on.

We have just over a week until deadline. At this stage of things, Korlash is the scummiest. However, I also see Elias as a serious possibility, as well as Lucienne and Gemelli on a lower level.

[vollkan]

But you've been vocal about Korlash being your #1 lynch choice for a while now. So the "prospect of you voting" was there before you posted, and I'm not sure what sort of reactions you might have hoped to get from that post.

Actually, I just realized that you made the same exact type of post about six days ago, in post 1559:

I'm not willing to post much because im pretty sure Korlash is scum, and the only thing prompting me to post more is defense. I will probably vote kor tomorrow.

So you're *still* waiting for reactions? Despite the fact that everyone in the game has posted since Nov 22 except AlyG? That doesn't add up to me. At all.

Here, let's see what kind of reaction this results in:

Unvote; Vote Elias

Gemelli, what are you trying to say here?

Elias didn't vote Korlash, on the basis he was looking for reactions. That isn't scummy. It's a complete and utter nullity. I admit, the reactions thing seems odd given the delay, but I don't see why it is scummy.

I can't say definitively, because so far I haven't played as scum in any Mafia game. But from the reading I've done, I've seen scum wait until both their players are online at the same time, for example, in order to minimize the chances of someone unvoting and spoiling a lynch.

There might be other reasons, and I'll let someone with more experience than me hypothesize on what they might be. But you posted essentially the same thing in 1559 and 1582, and that make me think that you might be trying to send a signal to a partner. Your "waiting for reactions" comment from 1584 doesn't make any sense ... how would you expect people to respond differently than they did in the six days since you made post 1559?

Scum do the waiting thing in order to quicklynch. In a 5:2 situation, there is no benefit to scum in quicklynching.

[vollkan]

I'm waiting to see how everyone responds to the prospect of me voting.

For clarity, I was actually going to vote when I made the original post six days ago, and I actually mean to now. Things came up 6 days ago however.

Change of story much? Why not just say you forgot

Anyway, that makes two for Korlash. I'd rather not leave us less than a week after Korlash claims (so as not to cause us to do things hurriedly), so would it be acceptable if Korlash were to claim in 24 hours? I agree he is most suspect and he would be getting my vote at deadline, but now that things are solidifying I think a claim soon would be useful.

[vollkan]

How is that a change of story? The first post you quoted is specifically in reference to the post I made yesterday. Why do you believe that having the intention of eventually voting, but also having the intention to hold off to get reactions first, are mutually exclusive?

In the second post I quoted you make it sound like your not voting was a mistake. In the former, you justify the "I'll probably place my vote soon" by saying that you are waiting for people to respond to the prospect of you voting.

Basically, the second makes it sound accidental whereas the former makes it sound like you are now holding off deliberately. It's a weird change to make, since I would imagine that if you were wanting to judge reactions, the best approach would have been to vote right up.

[vollkan]

Any reactions he might have wanted to draw out from his gonna-vote-for-Korlash-soon announcement should have been apparent in the six days of real time that passed since he first did it. Every player in the game except AlyG has posted since that announcement. What possible new reactions could he hope to draw out by doing the same exact thing that no one reacted to previously? It just doesn't add up.

So I decided to fire a shot across his bow to see what would happen. Lo and behold, suddenly he's full of ideas and contributions to the game

Ah okay. I see what you are saying now. But Elias says he wasn't searching for reactions the first time. Then again, it doesn't really matter because reactions would have surfaced anyway.

Unless I've miscounted, Elias is at L-1. I wouldn't be averse to claims from both players, honestly.

Sorry, that was a blatant error on my part. I looked at the vote count and saw Korlash at 1 (your vote actually) and Elias at 1. Thus when I saw Elias vote Korlash I thought that made 2 for Korlash. I missed the votes on Elias.

In this case, Elias is at L-1 and should claim whenever he is ready.

[vollkan]

Um... Vollkan... What do you expect me to do? Claim doc? Mason? Sk? What? Are you seriously forgetting that whole big.. Korlash claimed for no reason thing we had ten weeks ago? I only see you asking me to claim as some weird trap thing and I am really afraid to say anything... I'm serious here... last time I "sorta claimed" I got my head chewed off.
Like I said, more tomorrow. We have the regional something vice somethings in for annual inspection, have to get to work at like 6 in the morning so it's off to bed.

I know you softclaimed before, but you never officially claimed. Query whether there is any difference, though...

[vollkan]

Well the only difference I see is your baiting me to see if I claim other then vanilla. After my "Velvety soft luscious and almost milky white silk claim" claiming anything BUT vanilla would, logically, put a bullseye on my back yes? Forgive me for being a bit skeptical to succumb to a claim right now.

That's not really a question I can answer. I would have to consider things carefully, so it could put a "bullseye" on your back, but it might not.

Now, should you provide a reasonable explanation as to why my "claim" is urgent and has to be done now, I may find it in my heart to once again utter those words my avy so longs to say! Until then, only allusions will you get! *Nods*

Well, since I am no longer under the delusion that you are at 2 votes, there is no longer any reason for you to claim, at least for now.

[vollkan]

Thankyou Elias.

**If someone hammers for this, they are retarded. It is my playstyle to get pissed off**

Let me add to that: If anybody is going to hammer Elias, it is to be me. That said, I have no intention of hammering Elias any time soon. If a person does hammer Elias, I will ensure that you are lynched tomorrow. I don't care what excuse/justification you might have, you will swing. If I get NKed (which I admit is probably unlikely given 2 claimed power roles) then I feel confident that the rest of the players will have you lynched. I know this may sound arrogant of me, but I think it is justified.

I really can't believe that I'm being the one forced to claim...the case on korlash is clearly stronger, based on the fact that there is a case besides the connection, while the entire case on me is the connection...I havent done anything exceedingly scummy all game besides lurk through the middle section of the game (when I thought I was being replaced). And yet I am the one at -1, I am the one forced to claim. This is ridiculous. You know what puts the icing on the cake though? Gemelli's jump. For a while now he's been saying that Korlash is more scummy, and now he jumps on me because I was attempting to get reactions? And even after I've defeated the bulk of his argument, (seeing as he doesnt even address my latest defenses) he does not unvote? Furthermore, I love how no one else seems to see how strong the connection between korlash and gemelli is. He switched his vote to someone who he said was second scummiest for essentially nothing! It's so incredibly obvious that Korlash and he are scumbuddies it's not even funny! Do you think it's a coincidence that Gemelli found an excuse to jump on me almost immediately after I got my second vote? My god, if I get lynched today and not Korlash, and the town ends up losing this game, I will be so fucking pissed, because for once I have a chance to improve my terrible town record and everyone seems to busy pressuring me for a claim to look at the evidence that's right there.

Elias, I agree, the case on Korlash is better. You were made to claim because of the numbers on you. Additionally (and I was waiting to see how this Gemelli issue unfolded), Gemelli's vote strikes me as dreadfully rushed. He has Kor at number 1 suspicion and then puts on his vote for you for this effectively semantic debate about you delaying your vote; the only change being that Orig cast his vote. I agree, your actions are odd, but I don't think they are scummy-odd. I'll admit here that I did think Gemelli's actions could be bussing of Elias, and I still consider it viable.

For now, I would like Korlash to officially claim, even though he has been "claimed" for a long time now.

My vote won't be going to Elias any time soon. He argued against me well. Whilst it doesn't rule him out as scum by any means, I will require a stronger case before I would consider voting him.

[vollkan]

Well, since I am no longer under the delusion that you are at 2 votes, there is no longer any reason for you to claim, at least for now.

For now, I would like Korlash to officially claim, even though he has been "claimed" for a long time now.

I hate to be a bore... but... why the sudden change of heart?

Because Elias has claimed and serious suspicion of Gemelli has surfaced. Ultimately, I see a claim from you as fairly arbitrary, but I would like to have it there clearly to help our discussion over the next week (ie. so that there is no danger of you claiming and then causing us to have to rush a decision). You and Elias are my top suspects, and I would want a significant length of time following your claims in order to determine how to act.

[vollkan]

Thats fair enough i think. But I hope you will indulge me in one more question as your constant traps have made me very paranoid.

Lets say, hypothetically, I am the Doc. Do you honestly feel there is reason enough for me to claim right now?

Yes.

Korlash, the alternative is that we spend the next week in analysis going nowhere then, at the last minute, you claim "doc" and then we need to rush. My "deadline" for claiming of my top candidates is right

now

. Elias has gone, and now it is your turn. Then I can look at things in a serious situation without having the pressure of an imminent deadline.

[vollkan]

First, I put it to you that if we have NOT identified all of the Mafia in the top four spots on the consensus list, we will most likely lose the game. There is significant reason to look at myself, Korlash, Elias, and Lucienne as Mafia suspects at this point. If Vollkan, AlyG, or Originality are mafia, then frankly I think they have outplayed the town well and truly already, and our chances of winning will come down to whether a rogue Mafioso makes a major error near the endgame. Because that's a depressing (and I think unlikely) scenario, I'm not going to focus on it. I do think that we've pinned the Mafia in our top four, and I think that our consensus list reflects that this is most people's opinion.

From where I'm sitting, the only way that all the mafia could not be in the top 4 is if AlyG is a mafia tracker. I think that is unlikely and, thus, that we have all the mafia in the top 4. If Orig is SK, then there may only be 1 mafioso left, however. I think we should remember that.

The town can make one mislynch without putting the Mafia in position to win. Therefore, from where I stand, the best course of action for the town is to lynch the top three players on the suspect list one after the other. Assuming that two of those players are mafia, and the other is town, this wins the game for us at the possible cost of a single mislynch.

Now, for those of you who have me at #2 or #3 on the suspect list, I don't expect you to buy into this approach I'm just trying to explain why I've been going back and forth between Elias and Korlash on D3. I believe that at least one of them is absolutely scum. If we push to lynch one of them, and that player is confirmed pro-town, to me the conclusion would be that Lucienne is the final remaining scum. I assume that the other pro-town player in the top four has a similar perspective, but with my name substituted into the mix.

Obviously, your course of action would work. As you say, though, it assumes you are pro-town which is not something I am willing to do.

Coming back to the point I made earlier, the fact that BOTH Elias and Korlash are taking the same stance on me suggests that the odds of them being aligned with each other are fairly high

Why does it make it highly likely that they are scum together?

... Don't take this too hard Gem. I understand you. I really do. But after all that a Gem/Lucienne pairing is sounding a whole lot more plausible.

On what basis?

[vollkan]

If Orig is SK, then there may only be 1 mafioso left, however. I think we should remember that.

To be honest, I hadn't considered that possibility. If we have just one Mafia left, things do become more complicated. How likely do you think that situation is?

Well, in Mini 467 I was in a 2-man mafia and there was a SK as the third scum. A few weeks ago I tried trawling the Mini Normal forum seeing whether it was vastly more likely to be 3 scum and 1 SK or 2 scum and 1 SK (by counting the number of SK games that went each way) and, IIRC, it was inconclusive.

Your course of action, rather interestingly, assumes unquestionably that Orig is a vig and that we have 2 scum left. If Orig is SK, things are very different and simply lynching as you are suggesting to eliminate people is absolutely dangerous.

[vollkan]

The air suddenly turns black. Clouds form, and lightning flashes across the sky.

And in the graveyard, one of the stones starts to shake and shiver. A mountain of dirt forms, and starts to dissolve with the shaking of the earth.

spurgistan has risen from the grave to replace AlyG!!!

And how does spurgistan get back on the plane?

Give credit where credit is due: spurgistan offered.

Then many thanks to Spurgistan!

[vollkan]

Thanks, Spurgistan; you've anticipated my next question and gone a long way towards alleviating my minimal doubts on your alignment

Can you explain how that works? My doubt revolves around the prospect of Spurg being a mafia tracker (unlikely as that may be). I don't see why Spurg's post eliminates that possibility.

No, I've been assuming that Orig is either vig or SK, but not mafia, and that therefore he still has a vested interest in killing mafia at this point. But yes, I had been assuming 2 scum. If having just one scum is even a moderately plausible distinct possibility, then obviously my plan needs to be scrapped without further comment. (As an aside, we haven't really looked at the 6:1 or 5:1:1 scenarios in detail yet, have we?)

6:1 is exceedingly unlikely.

As for 5:1:1,
Maflynch = 5:0:1. We lynch Orig. Easy. However, the problem here is that we have no way of knowing whether it is currently 4:2:1 or 5:1:1. Thus, this is not a situation we can plan for

For mislynch,
Mislynch = 4:1:1. It is most likely mafia will try and get rid of Orig and that Orig will try and get rid of the mafia, leaving either 3:1:0 or 4:0:0, the former being more likely.

[vollkan]

If we're going to reach a consensus on a lynch for today, I'd much rather it be something that we all have a chance to discuss, rather than a rushed decision on the 8th. Especially since my availability on the 8th will be limited as usual on the weekends.

I've been waiting for Spurgistan to weigh in, but he seems to be taking his time - understandably.

Part of the problem I'm having now is that there are so many scenarios to consider for the # of players remaining in each category. Possibilities that have been thrown around include:

(A) 4 Town, 2 Mafia, 1 SK :: Means that the initial setup was 8:3:1
(B) 5 Town, 2 Mafia :: Means that the initial setup was 9:3
(C) 5 Town, 1 Mafia, 1 SK :: Means that the initial setup was 9:2:1
(D) 6 Town, 1 Mafia :: Means that the initial setup was 10:2

If we can eliminate one or two of those setups from serious consideration, it might be easier for us to decide on a course of action. (D) seems like an obvious candidate to be discarded, for example. Much of our planning to date has focussed on (A) as a worst case scenario ... the question is, how likely do we think that scenario actually is?

From an inexperienced player's POV, given that we have two confirmed power roles (tracker, cop) and one wildcard power role (SK or vig), I would place the likelihood of the scenarios in order: C (most likely)-B-A-D (least likely).

D is not even within my contemplation right now. That would mean we have a vig, a cop and a tracker - as well as any other power roles, which seems unlikely. Whilst that probably means no protective roles, we were still a relatively powerful town. A mere 2 mafia against that seems over-balanced in our favour.

My personal view is that Orig is

probably

a vig. Thus, I believe that B is the most likely. Out of A and C, I am actually inclined to think of C as being most likely, primarily because the only other SK game I have been in had 2 mafia (Mini 467) and because C set-ups tend to be the most common if you trawl through Little Italy's most recent finished SK games (the only 3 scum, 1 SK game I could find was Mini 441 run by StallingChamp). Moreover, the lack of protective roles makes me inclined to favour C somewhat, though this I am far from convinced.

So, to form a list:
B
C
A


[many line spaces]

D

What do the rest of you think? And how do your setup assumptions influence your thoughts on how we should proceed over the next few days?

For my reasoning, I will be assuming that we are in setup A. I realise that may seem a tad insensible given it was third on my list, but it should not make too much actual difference in terms of scumhunting.

My thoughts on the best target will be influenced by the following:
1) Who is most scummy on their own?
2) Who has the most apparent links to dybeck?
3) From whose lynch will we learn the most about other players?

These 3 issues apply whether we are in B or A. Whilst only 1) will apply in C, I think this makes little practical difference. Ultimately, 1) will be decisive but 2) and 3) may play factorial roles.

Now, my answers.
1) My answer is Korlash.

If I list my potential lynch candidates, it has not changed from the table:
Korlash
Elias
Gemelli
Lucienne

2) My answer is Elias, pretty much tied with Korlash. Followed by Gemelli and Lucienne, pretty much tied.

3) This question is an interesting one.

For starters, I do not think that Lucienne being scum would tell us much at all. She could conceivably be aligned to any of the rest of the 3 candidates. Likewise, if she is town, aside from looking at the remaining 3 candidates in response to the wagon, I don't think it would tell us too much at all.

As for the remaining 3, I think the most likely scumpairs are:
Korlash/Elias tied with Elias/Gemelli
Korlash/Lucienne
Korlash/Gemelli
Elias/Lucienne pretty much tied with Gemelli/Lucienne (I haven't looked too much into either of these)

Korlash being scum would affirm my thoughts on 3 of the top 4, as well as eliminating Elias/Gemelli. Korlash being town would set my sights squarely on Elias/Gemelli.

Elias being scum would make me more suspicious of Korlash and Gemelli, but with no real change in Lucienne, such an anomalous player. ELias being town would throw me onto Korlash, since I think Korlash/Lucienne or Korlash/Gemelli is more feasible than Gemelli/Lucienne (again, Lucienne is an anomaly so I would still be very wary of her).

Gemelli being scum would make me much more suspicious of Elias, with little change on Korlash or Lucienne. Gemelli being town would bolster Korlash/Elias.

~~~~~~~~
So there you have it. Korlash comes up trumps in all 3. Thus, he will be getting my vote today.

[vollkan]

It isn't actually so low.

If I were to use percentages:

Korlash/Elias - 80%
Elias/Gemelli - 80%
Korlash/Lucienne - 75%
Korlash/Gemelli - 70%
Elias/Lucienne - 55%
Gemelli/Lucienne - 55%

Basically, any of the top 4 I would not be surprised with, and it depends on my weighting. I didn't see much for Korlash/Gemelli earlier on, but the latest stuff does seem to support it (query the extent to which Gem's vote was just reaction-seeking, but nonetheless).

[vollkan]

Well, I guess it does seem more obvious from my point of view. But I would really hate to be lynched tomorrow if Korlash comes up scum, as I'm really not linked to him.

Yup. Don't get me wrong. My reasoning for 1) will ALWAYS take precedence over 2 and 3. What I simply mean is that Korlash being scum would give me an indication of where to begin my analysis. Also, let it be known that I will be immensely pissed if I get NKed and somebody tries to run a Korlash = Scum therefore Elias = Scum thing.

I want to be clear here: ANY combination of the top 4 is feasible. One person being scum or town neither clears nor condemns ANYBODY.

[vollkan]

It also kind of annoys me that as it stands I would be the deadline lynch.

Not really. I'll vote Korlash in about 24 hours. That makes you on par with Korlash. Then it basically comes down to Gemelli (or Spurg, since Lucienne is m.i.a) as the decider.

[vollkan]

even with your vote tying things, in the event of a tie the player who had the votes the longest is lynched. And seeing as Gemelli and korlash are almost certain buddies (and least from my perspective) then you can guess where his vote will be going. It comes down to spurg, and a lurker. Great.

Elias, what are your thoughts on Lucienne? It's just you say that Gemelli/Korlash seems almost certain to you, that suggests you are almost certain of Lucienne's innocence.

Anyway, so far I don't think that there has been a case against you raised by Gemelli. Indeed, he had Korlash in the lead. Unless he can explain properly why he suspects you more, I will not accept a vote for you from Gemelli.

[vollkan]

unfortunately, it is up to the mod to accept the vote, not you.

No. I mean that if Gemelli does not adequately explain it, he will attract severe suspicion from me (potentially even my consent for Orig to take him out). Regardless of his alignment, that should be a serious enough threat.

Gemelli is usually a fairly well-reasoned player, so uncharacteristically poor stuff (such as we have seen of late in respect of his vote on you) will be noticeable.

[vollkan]

So there you have it. Korlash comes up trumps in all 3. Thus, he will be getting my vote today.

That's a compelling argument. Obviously, from my perspective the possible scumpairs are quite a bit simpler:

Korlash/Elias
Elias/Lucienne
Korlash/Lucienne

But if we need to account for the possibility of a Mafia singleton remaining, I think that your questions (1) and (2) become more important for today's lynch. I agree that Korlash gets the edge on (1), with Elias getting perhaps a smaller edge on (2).

Just in regards to number 2. I know I said Korlash comes up trumps in all 3, but Elias is pretty close for number 2; it's mostly a matter of weighting and in light of Elias's defences.

I still dont see why you can value the Gemelli/Korlash team so low, especially after gems incredibly dumb vote on me right after I got one vote, especially when he continued to rate korlash number one and me number two.

Elias, if it turns out that you actually ARE town in this game, please come back to this post when it's over. Taking a hostile, condescending tone in posts like this -- and not for the first time this game -- may go a long way towards explaining your poor record in games as town.

To be frank, I don't think rudeness is a scumtell anymore than poor punctuation is a scumtell. It's an ad hom point (attacking rudeness, not Elias calling the vote dumb), unless you actually explain why scum are more likely to be rude than town. "Dumb" is not the most helpful explanation, but I know what he meant since he already explained his problems.

Anyway, please go back and review my posts from D2. I stayed pretty focused on Oman as a prime suspect from the moment I entered the game. And I kept after Korlash after he replaced in, though I treated him differently as he has a different posting style. If you look at the whole game, I am pretty damn sure that there's more evidence AGAINST the Gemelli/Korlash pairing in this thread than there is FOR it.

I'm not personally inclined to see your attacks on Korlash as evidence against a scumlink. I mean, unless Lucienne is scum, there has been bussing amongst the scum. Thus, I restate: any combination of the four seems plausible to me.

I don't suspect him *more*. But I don't suspect him *much less* than Korlash at this point. Rest assured, if I do end up voting for him instead of Korlash, I will summarize the points I've raised throughout D3. Basically, my case against Elias comes down to the points I raised in posts 1424, 1444, 1488, 1496, and 1597.

I'll look over them now.

...
Elias: Never suspects him. Not even once. Responds respectfully to him once, asks for his help, enthusiastically welcomes him back, is "fairy happy" with Elias as pro-town, and gives him a 30% scumdar rating. THIS IS THE ONLY PLAYER REMAINING IN THE GAME WHO DYBECK DID NOT SUSPECT EVEN IN PASSING.
...

Yup. This is an interesting point. Elias says dybeck did it as buddying to a townie. I raised similar concerns to you as it pointing to them being scum together. This point is not rock solid, but it is not completely tenuous either.

The other thing I wanted to look at was Elias's response to these arguments. It turns out that he never responded to them at all; he was planning to (post 1037) but never got around to it.

Some other D2 posts of Elias's, for reference purposes if nothing else:

* Post 1021: Response to Vollkan's case against Dybeck
* Post 1035: Responds to Vollkan's theory that Elias might be mafia
* Post 1085: Long response to Vollkan post explaining the "lynching Orig is bad" position
* Post 1227: Response to Vollkan post: Korlash-Gemelli-Lucienne possible scum group
* Post 1255: Reacts to Dybeck's cop claim
* Post 1272/1274: More reaction to cop claim; Dybeck is preferred lynch
* Posts 1277, 1295, 1297, 1307: Back-and-forth with Korlash
* Post 1356: "Dybeck's scum"

As to D3 content, I wanted to respond to a few Elias posts:

Um...I was going off of your post's list of uncertains...if you look at that post, you already have dybeck written off as cop or mafia, which was my opinion at the time. I was simply speculating as to the uncertains.

But that's not what you said. You said "Assuming we have 3 scum, there is our scumgroup." You didn't include Dybeck in the equation at all.

Dybeck is an experienced player. Do none of you find it unlikely that he would purposefully NEVER post suspicion on me?

He may be experienced, but he was on the defensive for almost all of D2, having triggered the town's collective scumdar early. And you could just as easily ask the question: why would a mafia purposefully NEVER put suspicion on someone he knew to be town? The answer to both questions is probably the same: the "average mafia" would probably not "purposefully" do either thing. But the fact is, Dybeck has done exactly that. Don't you think it's worth speculating why he treated you differently than everyone else in the game?

The point about the 3 scum is interesting. If dybeck was written off as cop or mafia, then the scumgroup couldn't be those 3. Elias explained this in 1459 as being that he was leaning to cop at that point. Still is odd that he wouldn't consider the possibility.

The second point was later explained by Elias as the fact that he was the easiest target and, thus, it would be natural for dybeck to buddy him. I think this shows that this point has a significant wifom element.

Um....Are you dense or something? How in hell is bringing up the possibility of LYLO an appeal to emotion in any sense of the word?

You're a debator, so I'm assuming you are familiar with this stuff. The fact that we may be in LYLO has no bearing on the argument of whether or not you are mafia. And thanks for the bit of ad hominem there, too.

The lylo thing was an emotive appeal, in the sense of fear-mongering. That earns some scum points. As for the ad hom, you'd need to convince me that it is actually a scumtell

The way in which it pretains to my defense is that in the case that we are that close to LYLO, the current case against me is not strong enough to take that big a risk. This is purely an assessment of the amount of danger town is in right now.

You're missing the point. If I felt that the case against you was strong enough, I would have voted for you already. Right now, I do not think the case against Korlash is all that strong either.

Also, my post was in no way "veiled threat". It was much more an indication that you are my number 2 in terms of who is likely to be scum. Honestly, are you just lying to make me look bad now or what?

OK, that's twice that you've mentioned me as a scum candidate now. And apparently I'm a liar for viewing that as a threat. Nice. Well, since you've brought it up, maybe you can explain your case against me? I mean, above and beyond the fact that I suspect you, obviously. Clearly you have reasons to find me suspicious; let's hear them.

Elias later commented on this by noting that it was different between saying that you felt threatened and that Elias had threatened you. He thinks his threat was not veiled and he would formulate a case. (This case never surfaced).

Um...what exactly is the case on me besides the connection point? Essentially nothing, as you have just pointed out, besides that connection point.

We have:

(1) Dybeck's preferential treatment of you for the entire game, and
(2) Your different responses to the cases against Oman/Korlash and Dybeck

That's not "essentially nothing." We have exactly one scum player confirmed at this point. I believe that the best leads we can get should be drawn from that player's behavior towards others, and from others' behaviors towards him. Right now, the links between you and Dybeck are stronger than those between Oman/Korlash and Dybeck. Change my mind!

To say that the case on Korlash is only the connection case seems kind of makes it seem like youre overlooking a major something, and not accidentally either.

Another accusation. Are you implying that I'm aligned with Korlash, in spite of the fact that I was one of the people who presented the big D2 case against Oman and pushed most consistently for his lynch?

Doesn't rule you being Korlash's buddy out...

I'll say it again: I want to focus on people's ties to Dybeck first and foremost. Korlash's behavior is suspect, absolutely. But I find his ties to Dybeck to be more of a reach at this point than yours.

Not significantly more of a reach really, as you seem to be acknowledging now

Really, I don't know. If there's anything I can say I have in this game right now, its a reputation of not living up to my promises. If I'm in the the mood to post, I will. But if I'm not, and promise content, I probably won't get around to it. Thats as good as an excuse as I can give. But let me say this: were I scum, I imagine that the most likely partner you guys would turn to would be korlash (for obvious ties to Dybeck equivalent to what I had, as well as what could be seen as distancing with me about the content). Now, were we a big happy mafia family, why would I ignore a case on one and attack the other?

Honestly, if you are confirmed as Mafia, I think it's just as likely (maybe more) that you and Dybeck are aligned with Lucienne, based purely on observed behaviors and the reasoning you've just provided.

Why Lucienne?

does anyone think the way that Korlash came into the game seemed a little suspicious? His first real post in the game, 1087 I think (4th actual post if youre using the parser) he makes absolutely NO mention of any cases on Dybeck, but simply comes into the game with all guns firing at Vollkan. Am I the only one who is reads this as a big fat distraction? He makes mention of Orig also, a smaller issue, but ignores Dybeck all the way up until his 11th post, post 1125. Thats a damn long time. And even then, he only mentions him as a possibility of being Vollkans second scumbuddy. He continues to hole this opinion for some time, without ever really backing it up. In his 48th post, 1267, he lists Dybeck as only 45% chance of being scum, despite considering him an almost certain third member of the scumteam for some time. In post 1279, suddenly Dybeck is listed as his top suspect (with me alongside). Wait, I thought a second ago you just werent completely certain on his claim, and had him at 45%? Also, in 55, 1310, suddenly shafted is rated near last on his LoS, and several players below Dybeck on his LoS he lists stronger reasons for suspecting them. In his 59th, 1334, he finally votes Dybeck, for being unhelpful. Wow. Thats all for now, but does anyone else see a completely unexplained shift over to Dybeck being #1 as the town began to feel that way?

All good questions and good grounds for discussion. Korlash, how would you explain this?

Red font is mine.

Gemelli, you keep talking about "preferential treatment". Please define and give examples.

I was talking about two things:

(1) He reacted differently to the case you brought up against Dybeck (commented on it at length in 1021, said he was undecided on it in 1029, said it wasn't too convincing in 1035) and the cases against Oman that shaft.ed brought up in 1005 (said he would comment on it in 1037, never did) or that I brought up in 1055 (let pass with no comment at all).

(2) His overall behavioral trend towards the two players is different:

Day 1

Elias posted his only non-random vote of the game for Oman in post 49, and attacked him in posts 52, 58, 59, and 243. He did not acknowledge Dybeck at all.

Day 2

Elias made four posts in which he was noncommittal towards the Dybeck case (1021, 1025, 1029, and 1255), and three posts critical of Dybeck (1272, 1274, and 1356) after the town consensus was already strong. On that same day, Elias posted one noncommittal post on Korlash (1156), and six critical/confrontational posts against him (1225, 1227, 1277, 1295, 1297, and 1307).

Obviously the term "preferential treatment" is subjective, but I thought it notable that from a 10k foot perspective, Elias treated these players differently through the first two days of the game.

This post makes a good linking argument really. Obviously, these points need to be taken with a grain of salt, since they are subject to wifom, but that doesn't invalidate them. It just means that we need to make sure we are mindful of Elias actually being independently suspicious and on his rationalisations for these.

Any reactions he might have wanted to draw out from his gonna-vote-for-Korlash-soon announcement should have been apparent in the six days of real time that passed since he first did it. Every player in the game except AlyG has posted since that announcement. What possible new reactions could he hope to draw out by doing the same exact thing that no one reacted to previously? It just doesn't add up.

So I decided to fire a shot across his bow to see what would happen. Lo and behold, suddenly he's full of ideas and contributions to the game Rolling Eyes

Here's a fun fact about post 1582: this is Elias's ONLY post since D3 started that was not made in a direct response to a question posed to him, or a response to suspicions levelled against him. His case against Korlash was only offered when he was directly asked who his first choice of scum would be. Elias is not scum-hunting. He is engaging in self-preservation. His only contributions to hunting scum have been offered in order to distract from the case against him.

I note that Elias's lastest post is covering familiar ground -- complete with saying I sound stupid, and continuing to push the Gemelli/Korlash scumbuddy scenario -- and frankly I don't see the need to respond to any of it. I didn't join the game to participate in a hairsplitting battle, where you claim that the hairs YOU split are important and relevant, while the hairs that others split are stupid and meaningless.

I agree. Much as I had problems with your vote's explanation (though, it does appear to me to be a pressure vote, which makes sense), the waiting thing was weird. I don't know if it was monumentally scummy. Certainly something to keep in mind, though.

Vollkan, you seem to be implying that if I vote for Korlash, I wouldn't need to justify myself. That seems ... odd. In any case, my case against Korlash is captured in the points I raised in posts 1444, 1484, 1509, and 1519. Again, if I end up voting for him (as seems likely), I'll summarize the key points in my vote post.

I said:

Anyway, so far I don't think that there has been a case against you raised by Gemelli. Indeed, he had Korlash in the lead. Unless he can explain properly why he suspects you more, I will not accept a vote for you from Gemelli.

What I meant was that I couldn't recall the specific arguments against Elias that had been made, and how they excelled those on Korlash. Obviously, justification would be required for either, but what I meant was a specific explanation of the case on Elias, since that was less clear than the case on Korlash.

The votes I cast for Korlash and Elias today were for identical reasons: trying to elicit reactions to help me make up my mind. I'm curious as to why it was "uncharacteristically poor" for me to apply this tactic to Elias, and why it wasn't notable when I did the same thing to Korlash. But that's a discussion we can have when the game is over; I don't think it would do anything but distract us from the matter at hand at this point.

Sorry. That was me being unclear again. As far as reaction voting, the vote itself was fine; just the rationale about the delay just seems odd (then again, Elias's responses were odd also). It just seemed strange to me that you would target something so trivial rather than compiling something more substantial against Elias to elicit a response.

[vollkan]

However I see Vollkan said he will vote me in like 24 hours... so... Jeeze... I don't have time to not post do I? Man... Damn you deadline, once again you have snuck up on me and kicked me in the shin then T-bagged me! Oh what a cruel game of Halo we play...

Yup That's part of the idea of signalling my voting intention; it forces you to respond.

[vollkan]

Fair enough. I'm not asking you to eliminate it as a possibility; I just hope you examine my history (especially as it relates to Oman/Korlash) and decide for yourself how LIKELY it is.

I've said myself that it doesn't seem as likely as my other options, but distancing can go to great extents.

Best examples I can give from my own experience:
In Newbie 358, my scum-partner pushed against me and actively sought my lynch for basically the entire game; and we won with no casualties. How we managed this was that nobody thought that a scum-link was possible between us. However, nobody was persuaded by my partner's rather weak, though passionate, arguments.

In Stargate SG-1 Mafia, I bussed two of my four partners to the point of having them lynched. Indeed, I even led the wagon on one of them. Granted, it was the best thing for me to do, since both were pretty clearly going to be lynched anyway - but I pre-empted the general sentiment by advancing strong arguments. And my scumgroup won.

Since those games, I have been immensely skeptical of so-called "town tells". The only way I think something can actually be a town-tell is if the pushing for the lynch is sincere, strongly argued and that the lynch advocacy is not pre-emptive. Referring back to my examples: In 358, whilst it was not pre-emptive (at least later on), the arguments were weak. In Stargate, whilst it was pre-emptive, the arguments were strong.

You know how easy it is to do something and then say "it was for pressure?". Simply put, I dont believe your vote was pressure. I believe you only changed it because you got called out on how bad the reasoning was.

I think this is valid. However, Gemelli did say at the time:

Here, let's see what kind of reaction this results in:

Unvote; Vote Elias

That suggests he was seeking a reaction.

[vollkan]

EBWOP: - Just to be clear:

Since those games, I have been immensely skeptical of so-called "town tells". The only way I think something can actually be a town-tell is if the pushing for the lynch is sincere, strongly argued and that the lynch advocacy is not pre-emptive. Referring back to my examples: In 358, whilst it was not pre-emptive (at least later on), the arguments were weak. In Stargate, whilst it was pre-emptive, the arguments were strong.

I am not saying that any argument which does not satisfy both is, or is likely to be, distancing. What I am saying is that I find it hard to view something as possibly being a town-tell unless it meets both.

[vollkan]

Well, you have a point there. But it is equally easy to have the excuse in mind before taking said action and include it in your post. I just dont think that he meant to ONLY get a reaction, but would have kept his vote on all day had he not been called on bad reasoning.

I understand fully what you are saying, but I think you can see that there is a significant amount of conjecture involved in that theory.

The only thing I can see as supporting it is that Gemelli continued to argue along those lines...but even that doesn't rule out a pressure vote.

Elias, I'm absolutely done trying to talk to you. You're a self-righteous, arrogant prick, and the entertainment value I have been getting out of this game has been almost entirely sucked away by reading your snotty, hostile posts. If this is how you get your rocks off, great, but I want no part of it.

I'm not going to pull a Ryan here, nor am I going to ask to be replaced, but I have better things to do with my free time than act as a sounding board for some random misanthropic Internet asshole. This will be the last game I play with you, and very likely the last game I play on this site. You can have your "playstyle," and I'll spend more time with people who don't think being a dick is something to be proud of.

I've tried to keep out of this as much as I can, but seeing as it's escalating, I hope you will both forgive me intruding.

Gemelli, Elias has a valid meta reason for acting the way he does. I mean, I get pretty close to Elias's tone myself at points, both in games and GD arguments. Indeed, I

was somewhat amused to

read that Quagmire included me on a list of his favourite GD temp ban candidates because I am "annoying and pretentious and condescending." (a very similar sort of criticism to yours against Elias).

In games, I usually get snipey (as I did with your case against me) when someone says something which I regard as ridiculous. Moreover, being a little abusive can often emphasise your disagreement. The trick is not to overdo it, because doing so will get an accusation of ad hom.

Now, from Elias's perspective, if he is like this inconsistently (most likely in the sense of not being condescending as scum so that he doesn't get disliked) his meta is ruined. Thus, his options are to either abandon it altogether - which is not a good thing because it sometimes is a good way of shooting down an opponent and of fazing them from making further attacks; or to be consistent.

I'd also really discourage you from leaving the site, because you are a good player. Just remember that we all have our personas and some of us think aggression and rudeness can be a good card to play in circumstances.

[vollkan]

Vollkan, thanks for the compliment, but I think it's clear that I let this game get under my skin. I enjoy the investigative aspect quite a bit, but the mudslinging aspect isn't something I can get into. I don't think I'd be a very good Mafia, basically. I'll sleep on whether I'm going to keep playing or not after this game ends, but I certainly don't think I'm going to put this level of effort into a game again.

Last thing on the matter: - Don't get me wrong. I wasn't saying that mud-slinging is obligatory, so don't get the impression that not being able to "get into" it will somehow inhibit you. In fact, most players don't do it. My point was that a few of us find it an effective psychological tactic to use in mafia and that you really shouldn't get riled up about it.

I'll do my best in the morning... ^^ At least I get to see Elias burn tonight! Orig your my hero! >.-

Anyway, the time has come:

Vote: Korlash

I do hope you show up to post your thoughts before deadline.

[vollkan]

Orig, let me clear about this: Regardless of the outcome of today, you cannot NK.

I can't see Korlash not ending up as the lynchee, without some radical new revelations.

If Korlash comes up town:

In this case, we can be pretty certain the scum are among Lucienne, Elias and Gemelli. To me, the only way this would not be the case is AlyG being scum, which I doubt significantly.

I shall assume 2 mafia are left.

Now, if you are our vig:
Mislynch Korlash = 4:2
MafNK = 3:2
- Vig NK town = 2:2 -> If you are NKed, this causes a loss for us. I cannot allow you to risk our game on 2/3 chance of catching scum
- Vig NK mafia = 3:1 -> Not worth the risk.

If you are a SK:
Mislynch Korlash = 3:2:1
You need to assume that mafia will not NK you, obviously.
Thus,
MafNK = 2:2:1
- SK NK town = 1:2:1 -> You will lose here. The day will No Lynch and the mafia will NK you.
- SK NK mafia = 2:1:1 -> In this case, we will No Lynch and then it will come down to cross-kills for us to win. You WILL be NKed by the mafia here and will therefore lose.

This is an interesting point. Orig, if you are the SK, a mislynch today will prevent you from winning at all if there are 2 mafia remaining right now. See the above for what happens if you NK. If you choose not to NK, then it stays at 2:2:1. A lynch of mafia is needed for us to have a hope. Thus, in the event of success it becomes 2:1:1. From there, you will get into a cross-kill situation where your loss is all but guaranteed.

What about if there is just 1 mafioso left right now?

So, it would currently be 5:1:1
Mislynch Korlash = 4:1:1
-SK NK town = 3:1:1
-SK KN mafia = 3:0:1

Now, there is something important here. We don't know how many mafia are left, but Orig needs to assume there is only 1 if we mislynch today. Thus, we get put in a vexing situation wrt SKOrig. Assuming, Orig survives tonight:
1) If he chooses not to kill, it will be 4:1:1 or 3:2:1 BUT we have no way of knowing. In both cases, our best bet is to lynch mafia (a no lynch in 3:2:1 runs the risk of a 2:2:0 loss)
2) If he NKs town, we are either in 3:1:1 or 2:2:1 and again, no way of knowing which. Here, it is clear that our best bet is, again, to lynch mafia.
3) If he NKs mafia, we are either in 3:0:1 or 2:1:1. This is the most interesting situation.

See, whilst we obviously win by an OrigLynch in the first situation, we don't know whether we are in the first or second. The solution which first jumped into my head was "No Lynch regardless. If it is the former, we can judge by the number of NKs that occur after the No Lynch. If it is the latter, then we get cross-kills."

One major problem, however, is the possibility of mafia choosing not to NK to lull us into lynching Orig. If mafia does not NK and Orig does, then we are in either 1:1:1 (where we obviously No Lynch and both scum will need to kill) or 2:0:1 (we will know know this by the dead mafia). In both cases, Orig will lose without question. Thus, Orig's best bet is to not NK making it remain at 2:1:1. Or is it? If Orig NKs town, then he places it at either 1:1:1 or 2:0:1. We can't judge this. In 1:1:1, the solution is to No Lynch. In 2:0:1, no lynch is tantamount to suicide. Thus...a massive can of worms is opened. If the mafia choose to NK to be clever, they actually run the risk of reducing their chances of success to 50% (in 1:1:1). Thus, their best bet would appear to be to NK Orig in the first place.

If Korlash comes up mafia:

If you are vig:
Maflynch Korlash = 5:1
MafNK = 4:1
-Vig NK town = 3:1
-Vig NK scum = 4:0

Orig, in this case, it should be pretty clear that you are NOT to NK. Doing so nets us no advantage other than squandering the ability to No Lynch twice, or mislynch once. Plus, if you misvig and you are NKed, we are in LYLO.

If you are SK:
Where it is now 4:2:1
Maflynch Korlash = 4:1:1
MafNK = 3:1:1
-SK NK town = 2:1:1 -> You lose
-SK NK mafia = 3:0:1-> You lose (we know the mafia are gone. Thus, we lynch you)

Where it is now 5:1:1
Maflynch Korlash = 5:0:1
SK NK = 4:0:1

This is interesting. In the second case (4:0:1), obviously lynching Orig nets us a win. However, we don't know whether the mafia might have abstained to be clever and make it look like 4:0:1 when it was actually 3:1:1. Regardless, we should still lynch Orig. That will either give us a win, or make it 2:1:0 lylo. Of course, if there are 2 town NKs then we know it is 2:1:1 and we No Lynch.

~~~~~~~~~~~~
I have probably made several mistakes in the above, but I thought I would deal with this now.

[vollkan]

I seriously had to read this post about 5 times before it made sense. And when it did my jaw dropped.

Actually I have decided my post does not actually matter anymore. The way I see it, I will get lynched today and bam it's game over for me. Tomorrow the town lynches Orig, and then it's like.. 2: 1 and I could care less who wins anymore...

If you are town, your post is immensely important to us.

Yes, you will be lynched today; that doesn't mean "game over" for townKorlash. Tell us what you think! I can't work out what you mean wrt the Orig lynch. Could you explain how you derived the 2:1 scenario.

I will say this who ever has freaking saved Orig's ass the last two nights needs to be shot. I mean I am seriously under the impression the mafia have a doc or something...I mean the first time I just thought Oman had gotten RBed or something, but not twice.. I mean come on... So yeah... Watch out for that...

You're claiming vig now? That's pretty damn stupid.

Let me run through the reasons:
First of all, you pretend to be surprised that Orig was apparently protected, or that you were RBed twice. Your reasoning here is pitiful. It is now D3. There were 2 NKs on N1. How the heck could a vigging by yourself have failed if there were 2 NKs? The only way that would work is if there was mafia, SK and a vig. That's way overdoing the killing roles and means that if the game opened at 9:2:1, it would be possible for it to be reduced to 5:2:1 after just 1 mislynch.

Secondly, you were on the dybeck lynch wagon. He was the claimed cop. If you were vig, you would KNOW Orig to be mafia. Thus, you would know that dybeck could not be mafia (because he had been so fervent on Orig to the point of claiming cop and risking himself - which would out two scum). Thus, it would make no sense for you to sit in silence and let the cop be lynched.


Thirdly, you're suggesting that the set up is (at least):
1 x Cop
1 x Vig
1 x Tracker
6 x vanillas
1 x Mafia RB or Mafia Doctor
1 x mafia
1 x either vanilla or mafia
1 x SK

The setup was awful enough without the mafia power role. To suggest either a GF or doctor is to completely break it.

Fourth, and this one is in your favour: Oman had expressed moderate suspicion of Spurg.

Fifth, you and Oman should have been fighting tooth and nail against Orig.

Sixth, your scenario requires dybeck and Orig to be partners.

On balance I am definitely more inclined to believe Orig than you. Thus, my vote remains where it is.

Anyways... GL town I guess... My vote would go for Elias being Orig's partner. I only say that because I am trying to survive and of course saying I think the guy who can hammer me is likely scum is kinda dumb... Besides that I am getting serious town vibes from Gem *Puppy eyes* He is sooo awesome... I <3 him sooo much...

Oh very clever The last bit of this is blatantly you trying to play a WIFOM game by expressing ridiculously positive opinions of Gemelli.

Also:

I'll do my best in the morning... ^^ At least I get to see Elias burn tonight! Orig your my hero! >.-

?

[vollkan]

Im not the vig I'm the freaking Sk... There is no vig... If there is then the mafia did not kill night one...

Okay then. I assumed you meant vig, because I couldn't conceive of a SK claiming. I'll go back over what you say and my points to see if you being mafia is still most likely.

um... Oman killed Spurg, mafia killed carrot... Did not fail night one... I failed last night in killing Orig... Yeah I think i somehow felt there has been three nights... Weird...

Weird indeed

I had this whole thing planned from the start... I claim vig tomorrow, assuming I am still alive and assuming I failed in my kill on Orig yet again. I tired to leave a trail way back when where I supported the Vig a lot, while always trying to place Orig high on my lists. This way tomorrow, I could guarantee a mafia death. (either tonight or tomorrow) thus giving me more room to win. When I claimed just now this plan stuck in my mind thus giving me the thought I failed twice to kill Orig, and as i only remember doing it once I assumed Oman had passed another night.

First up, I still don't see how you messed up with the two NK thing. Your explanation here doesn't make sense.

Moreover, I don't even know if you would be stupid enough to concoct such an idiotic plan. Outing yourself as the SK = suicide; it doesn't make it any more likely you would win. In fact, it makes it less likely since you've gone from an unknown "SK" (note the inverted commas) to a known.

Any pity points I hoped to win are now forgot, but oh well. Orig still dies tomorrow. You town just remember I gave you the chance to not be in lylo...

One of you two is now confirmed mafia, and my money is on you. I'll kick myself if you actually are the SK, but Orig being mafia seems unlikely in the extreme after what dybeck went through.

Sk man... Cop death = good thing... thank you and good night...

You're right here. This fits with SKorlash.

Okay, the big argument about dybeck and Orig not likely being partners remains on foot. Korlash's claim still has Orig as mafia with dybeck. This just does NOT make sense. I'm usually fairly paranoid about distancing, but this would be ridiculous - not just bussing, but plain suicidal.

One of them IS mafia and I believe the evidence favours Korlash. I admit I could be wrong here, and that concerns me, but Korlash is most likely.

Now, what are the risks?

Well, let's look at the 4:2:1 situation first.

SK lynch =

SK lynch = 4:2:0
MafNK = 3:2
Lynch Maf Orig/Kor = 3:1
MafNK = 2:1

Not ideal. However, because Orig is outed, this scenario does not spell doom since we get a free mafia lynch.

Maf Lynch

Maf lynch = 4:1:1
MafNK town = 3:1:1
-SK NK town = 2:1:1 (SK, most likely Orig, loses)
-SK NK mafia = 3:0:1 (SK, most likely Orig, loses)
MafNK SK = 4:1:0
-SK NK town = 3:1
-SK NK mafia = 3:0 WIN!

This varies. Nonetheless, if the worst outcome (2:1:1) arises, we MUST no lynch.

What about 5:1:1?

SK lynch =

SK lynch = 5:1:0
MafNK = 4:1:0
Lynch Maf Orig/Kor = 4:0:0 WIN!

Mafia lynch =

Maflynch = 5:0:1
SKNK = 4:0:1
Lynch SK Orig/Kor = 4:0:0 WIN!

I personally believe Orig to be a vig and, importantly, find it immensely difficult to conceive of him being scum with dybeck.

[vollkan]

I realise I need to hurry this post, after seeing that Korlash self-hammered after getting halfway through writing it.....

Vollkan: Assuming that the Mafia may repeat their gambit of last night -- ignoring the claimed power roles and focusing on eliminating the consensus "most likely pro-town" player -- I believe that you are in danger tonight. The good news is that this would be highly risky on the Mafia's part: with a limited pool of potential Mafia to choose from, there's a very good chance that Spurgistan will strike gold with his tracking. Then there's the possibility that Originality will take a shot tonight, regardless of what we want him to do. So the Mafia would be taking not one, but two chances by targetting you, but it's still a possibility. I'd like you to consider mitigating this risk by summarizing lines of investigation you'd like us to pursue if Korlash comes up mafia vs. SK.

I know that I am in serious danger. I'm wishfully hoping that the mafia may judge the threat of Spurg and Orig to be greater.

So let me run through a few other things out of the risk that this may be my last day.

Let me explain:
If Orig is vig....
Maflynch Kor = 5:1
MafNK N3 = 4:1
-Mislynch D4= 3:1
--MafNK N4 = 2:1
---Mislynch D5 = 1:1 LOSS unless Orig is around, in which case DRAW. (If Orig is around, mafia cannot quicklynch and hope to win)
---MafLynch D5 = 2:0 WIN
-No Lynch D4 = 4:1
--MafNK N4 = 3:1
---Mislynch D5 = 2:1 (which goes 1:1 with NK to a LOSS unless Orig is around. Again, with Orig, the mafia cannot quicklynch)
---MafLynch D5 = 3:0 WIN!
-MafLynch D4 = 4:0

In the above circumstances, I think No Lynch would be a dreadful idea, for the simple reason that we have a situation of "known unknowns" (:)), or we believe we do. By this, I mean that we have already deduced where the mafia are most likely to be with considerable (and, imho, justified) confidence. All a No Lynch will achieve is to cause us to lose one of Spurg, Orig or myself. As you can see above, we have 2 nights left in this game (The mafia has a NK on N5 after a D5 mislynch following a D4 No Lynch, but unless Orig is still around, they stand to win automatically in this situation so it doesn't apply for this discussion)

This is important, we have 3 people who are not foreseeably going to be lynched - AlyG, Orig and myself. Orig needs to be eliminated ASAP, since as long as he is around he will be able to stop the mafia quicklynching, regardless of how secure they think they are. Moreover, Spurg also poses an obvious and immediate threat to them. If the mafia choose to NK me tonight, they are really pressured to NK Orig tomorrow (they do not need to, but it prevents a quicklynch and Orig's presence would be able to prevent). Thus, they keep Spurg alive, which is obviously a huge risk.

//If I have time, I will do the SK scenario after saying other things, but I want to finish this first //

If Korlash comes up SK, Orig is mafia and should be lynched. I don't think this will happen, but whatever. Partner is out of Elias, Gemelli and Lucienne.

If Korlash comes up mafia, my top suspect will be Elias (the links to dybeck, the pissing match with Korlash, the dual anti-Gemelli stuff, etc.) followed by Gemelli (links to dybeck with the devil's advocacy and the links raised by Elias) and then Lucienne (a real enigma who is troubling me considerably. I don't find her suspicious, but her unknown-ness is concerning)

[vollkan]

Next post (doing this bit-by-bit):

Let me explain:
If Orig is SK in the 4:2:1 situation...

Maf Kor lynch D3 = 4:1:1
MafNK town N3 = 3:1:1
-SK NK town N3 = 2:1:1 (SK, most likely Orig, loses. We need cross-kills to win)
-SK NK mafia N3 = 3:0:1 WIN! (since SK is Orig and we know who to lynch)
MafNK SK N3 = 4:1:0
-SK NK town N3= 3:1
--Mislynch D4 = 2:1 (LOSS. Since the NK makes it 1:1)
--No Lynch D4 = 3:1
---MafNK N4 = 2:1 (LYLO)
-SK NK mafia N3 = 3:0 WIN!

Okay. Here we see that the mafia has even more of an imperative to eliminate Orig. Keeping him alive simply means that the situation is either in 2:1:1 or 3:0:1.

Now, in the 5:1:1 scenario:
Mafia lynch Korlash D3 = 5:01
SKOrig NK = 4:0:1

[vollkan]

Because I'm a bit weird in the head, I'm almost tempted to believe Korlash's SK claim, is this just a completely wrong idea? And if he is the SK, and we do have two scum left, as is the consensus, isn't he at least temporarily on our side? Granted, that doesn't explain why Orig claimed vig (and I know he visited carrotcake when she died, so that checks out), and we're pretty damn sure there aren't three killing roles, so maybe I need to check that. Well, we still have two days in which to hammer, and as I feel like I'm probably the hammer vote, I'll wait for a day. But we'd rather lynch mafia, anyway? Although killing the SK would get rid of one NK, and and that could be crucial, and I'm talking in awfully-written circles. Sorry.

One of Orig and Korlash is mafia.

If Korlash is SK, obviously Orig is mafia. It is not totally ridiculous that dybeck could be mafia with Orig - just a very unlikely level of distancing. That said, dybeck was easily persuaded to swap to Oman, which possibly suggests alignment with Orig...This is really reaching Anyway, we find out after Korlash is lynched.

Also Vollkan I find it odd you would say this:


"Moreover, I don't even know if you would be stupid enough to concoct such an idiotic plan. Outing yourself as the SK = suicide; it doesn't make it any more likely you would win. In fact, it makes it less likely since you've gone from an unknown "SK" (note the inverted commas) to a known.
"

When i seem o remember a time when you suggested the SK out themselves... Maybe it was Gem but I am fairly sure it was you... I may just go on a scavenger hunt to find out...

Yeah. I think I did suggest the SK out themself. And yes, that would be suicide. Shock horror! I tried to trick any potential SK into revealing themself

[vollkan]

First up, many thanks to ABR for replacing into this enormous game.

Now, down to business:-
* Korlash being the RB is an important fact. It is most unlikely that the mafia would have both a RB and a tracker. Thus, my doubt on Spurg has diminished significantly.
* Elias is now off the hook. My only doubt comes from the low possibility of an investigation-immune GF, but I think that to be unlikely. (so it seems most likely that we had a repeat of Mini 486)
* Since Korlash was a RB, it is quite likely that he blocked AlyG on N2. Thus, Lucienne may indeed have committed the kill N2.

Our situation is now 4:1. Those numbers are very encouraging. We now have two potential lynchees: Gemelli and Lucienne. Let me just run through the numbers:

D4 is now 4:1

Mislynch = 3:1
-MafNK = 2:1
--Mislynch = 1:1 LOSS
--Maflynch = 2:0 WIN
MafLynch = 4:0 WIN

Now, with those numbers, we can simply lynch Gemelli and Lucienne (in any order) and we will win regardless of whether or not we are wrong the first time. Such a course of action assumes Elias, Spurg and myself are pro-town. I want to know what people think of this idea. I have very little doubt regarding Spurg, and slightly more on Elias (though still I think he is most likely pro-town now). Thus, I think this would be a good idea.

Moreover, whether or not we decide to go ahead with the above, I think that Gem and Spurg should claim. I am happy for a mass claim also (given that the only other person who has not claimed now is myself).

[vollkan]

1. Elias is in fact an investigation-immune GF, or
2. Either you or spurgistan is actually mafia

I think it extremely unlikely that Spurg is mafia, and I know that I am not. I have never seen 1) before, in the sense of tracker immunity. Plus, given that we had an actual cop, it would make sense that, if there was a GF, the GF would be immune to the cop.

It is sort of unsettling that Vollkan suggests it, and we must assume hes town in order to go through with it.

I can understand it being unsettling. From my perspective, it seems like the obvious course of action, but I know that to the rest of you it will seem more risky.

[vollkan]

Okay, that makes 4 in favour.

Spurg has "noted" that I am leading this, and Elias has expressed some concern. I know for certain that I would be doing exactly the same in your situation, since my proposal fits both with me being town and equally with me being scum.

A bit of a dilemma arises on the matter of lynching ABR. On one hand, lynching him would save him the 70 page reading of the thread, but it would also deprive us of his views on things.

[vollkan]

of course, id feel like an ass for making him read into an inevitable lynch tomorrow. Maybe we should stop the reading now.

That's how I feel about this also. It seems rather ridiculous to make him read 70 pages if he is only going to end up being lynched today or tomorrow.

[vollkan]

Do you guys want me to claim as well?

[vollkan]

I'm vanilla. That only leaves ABR.

[vollkan]

Just a thought that occurred to me:

Spurg, you say that Elias targeted nobody. When AlyG investigated Lucienne, he said:

Ok guys, i'm so happy to be alive, and during night 2 i tracked Lucienne and got

NO RESULT

i guess this means she is a confirmed townie?

Did you receive a PM telling you that Elias did not have a night action, or did you simply receive no PM?

[vollkan]

Okay then. The choice seems arbitrary at this point, but I'll spare ABR the need of having to commit to this game any more:

Vote: ABR

[vollkan]

A very lame argument indeed. If you are talking about your wiki article, just make it clear that you weren't lynched because of behaviour per se.

As for Gem's comments: You would need to have read the game to have a clue as to what the big issue was. Basically, the prospect of Orig possibly being SK has been causing immense frustration (and complicated number stuff from myself) since he claimed vig on D2. Whilst the fact we lost the vig was obviously bad, it did finally clear up our situation.

[vollkan]

Isn't it just better to lynch the scum straight-away ?

"Better" for wiki-boasting rights? Yes. "Better" in terms of winning the game? No.

That said, I would like those boasting rights If Spurg can clarify whether AlyG received no result

at all

for investigating Lucienne, or received a PM saying that "Lucienne performed no action" I may change to Gemelli. My reasoning for this is that scumKorlash would most likely have chosen Lucienne, the less suspected, to take the kill (assuming that the kill performer was not mandated). Thus, if AlyG/Spurg was actually told that Lucienne took no action, rather than simply not receiving anything (which is what I am led to think AlyG meant by "NO RESULT") that probably suggests Gem is the surviving scum.

[vollkan]

No, streetflo wrote "Result: No Result" when disclosing what tracking Lucienne and Elias did on the nights Shaft.ed and originality were killed. So, in essence, my scumlist goes (pretty easily from most suspicious to least.
Gemelli.
Volkann.
ABR.
Elias.
Me.

Gemelli and Volkann are a bit interchangeable as of today, Volkann's freaking me out a bit, just because I always hate massclaims, even when everybody's claiming vanilla. Elias and myself are tied for least scummy, as I know he didn't visit originality, at least in the cases godfathers would get tracked, which I would be surprised against

Spurg, I don't know if you have been following things, but let me restate my position on this.

We know for sure we are at 4:1. I know that I am pro-town. I am now quite sure that you are pro-town, and by extension Elias also. That leaves 2 people: ABR and Gemelli. What I have advocated today is precisely consistent with me being town. Unfortunately, I know that it is also consistent with me doing a large amount of bussing.

If you find my plan suspect, do not support it. As above, though, it makes no sense to consider me scummy for advocating it.

Answer this question: What would townVollkan do today, knowing that the scum is among Lucienne and Gemelli and that we can safely mislynch?

As for the mass claim thing, I did it for a very good reason: If we mislynched today, the scum could claim a power role tomorrow. Obviously, that would not guarantee their success, but it would be enough that suspicion might be dispersed to other people - chiefly myself, the only unclaimed player. Thus, I got everybody to claim to prevent this from occurring. I could be reasonably sure scum would not claim a power role today, because such a setup would be very unlikely. If we mislynched, however, I was concerned that a scum might claim a power role and potentially topple the game over.

Again, a question: What would townVollkan do today, knowing the potential for the above scenario to arise?

If you look over Originality's posts from yesterday, he did not seem to find me or Vollkan suspicious. His top suspect was Lucienne, with Elias and Korlash as runners up. So I ask you: were I actually Mafia, why would I have chosen a NK target who (1) did not suspect me himself, and (2) was suspected as a possible SK by the town? I would certainly have prioritized Spurgistan (tracker with a good chance of targetting me) or Vollkan (most active player with an aggressive scumhunting style) as a NK over Originality, a player who supported me and who could have been a lightning rod for a future town lynch towards endgame.

This is an enormous "If I were mafia, why would I....?" What is commonly called WIFOM. If you had not NKed Orig, then D4 would have opened at 3:1:1 (where the final "1" represents Orig, whether he be SK or vig, since you would have no way of knowing).

Now, let's say that you decided to kill Spurg N3. That would make it -

D4 opens at = vollkan, ABR, Elias : Gemelli : Orig

Now, in the event of a mislynch (Which would occur by us choosing to take our chances with Orig and instead pursue mafia), it would only have been really possible to have ABR or Elias as the lynchee. Let's say that it was ABR.

After D4 lynch = vollkan, Elias: Gemelli : Orig

Now, at night, you run a real risk of being targeted by Orig, particularly if you behave scummily during the day.

What if you had decided to kill me last night-

After N3 = Spurg, ABR, Elias : Gemelli : Orig

Here, let's say that ABR was again the lynchee.

After D4 lynch = Spurg, Elias : Gemelli : Orig

This puts you in a very tight spot. You are exposed to Orig killing you and to Spurg targeting you.

All in all, Gemelli, I think it perfectly conceivable that you would NK Orig.

Anyway, for those of you who are still trying to decide between me and Lucienne/ABR, I hope you at least keep in mind the contributions each of us has made to this game. Heck, you can use the parser to look up what each of posted to the thread, and when -- the parser that I wrote because of this game, and shared with its players, specifically because this game was already large and unwieldy by the time I replaced in, and because I wanted to arm the town with what I thought would be a useful scum-hunting tool. What would be the motivation for me to share the application with you guys, or even let you know that it existed, if I was scum?

This is interesting - Gemelli is showing a real self-preservation interest. Gemelli, if you are town, we have won already. It would be nicer to win today than tomorrow, but the ultimate outcome remains the same. Thus, I don't understand why you are arguingabout yourself being less scummy - to the point of this weak "If I were mafia why would I....?" about the parser.

[vollkan]

Yay Absolutely great game all.