Mini 523 - Game Over!

[Gorgon]

Vote: Lord Nikon

for having a way too awesome avatar. I'm jealous.

[Gorgon]

One of the things that plays out differently on SA is the opening, where a few jokevotes get thrown around for the hell of it and people start posting actual stuff within a few hours or so. This game's been just the opposite: everyone plunks down a vote and nothing else, disappears, and things start to stall (because a jokevote is contributing, amirite?). Normally I'd be a bit more chatty, but you need something to work with.

To be fair, this game started just before the weekend. Weekends tend to be slow online in general, in my experience ... and they're definitely slow on Mafiascum.

Actually, in regards to your post, Nudude, it's made me kinda suspicious about Infinitive. Not wanting people to vote means the scum get an obvious advantage. Yes, I know, this probably doesn't make a ton of sense, but eh.

No, it doesn't make a lot of sense. Everyone wants people to vote, it's just that scum want people to vote for townies. How does not voting give scum an advantage?

[Gorgon]

D_L_S, there was ample discussion about the fact that the Lord Nikon wagon was building momentum rapidly. You should have noticed this. IGMEOY.

[Gorgon]

Funny, I hadn't seen that "How to be a good Townie" article before. I'm not sure what the main point of it is. It seems to be mostly; 'Think before you post, and especially think before you vote', as well as 'Don't get in the way', with a dash of 'Don't accuse people left and right'. I can agree with the first point, since it's pretty much common sense, but the second and third ... ehhh. Sure, accusing people can draw attention to you, but it's also a good tactic for rattling scum, if you happen to be right. The way people respond to accusations is often telling. Also, I've found that when I've played as scum, I've usually gone down the path of not trying to rock the boat too much or draw too much attention to myself, which is exactly what this article says is part of being a good townie. My experience of this game isn't that great yet, but I think I can say with some certainty that scum are actually more likely than townies to behave in this way; creep around the edges and post 'safe' stuff that doesn't draw too much attention. Also, it's not necessarily about the amount posted, but the content of the posts. I've posted prolifically every time I've played as scum, for instance.

But heck, I'm rambling. Let's get down to business.

I see now that this was directed at me:

It was started Gorgon, which in itself doesn't really mean alot, but what does get my attention is that he's been very quiet. Can you share any observations you've made so far Gorgon?

I assume you mean I started the LN bandwagon. My quietness is readily explained both by the weekend I mentioned earlier, and by a conscious choice on my part to cut down a little on the amount of posting I do. I've found that I post a lot without always having that much to say - and that's not very helpful to anyone.

---

deepthought makes a good point about SK having put down the third vote on LN. It's just as worhwhile to note as DLS's vote.

HeH also has a good point against VampyreLord. I eagerly await his explanation of why he said charter and Infinitive were 'sticking up for' DLS just because they mentioned earlier games they were in where there was a fast early bandwagon that was not scum-motivated. Looks to me like just using past experience to warn against not drawing conclusions too hastily.

I think I'll motivate VL with a vote.

Unvote

Vote: VampyreLord

[Gorgon]

VL using HeH's words to support his own defense is interesting and worthy of note.

However, I agree that what he did isn't lynchworthy.

Unvote

, for now.

[Gorgon]

What? You say that it's "interestng that" I "used HeH's words to support my own defence", then you say the exact same thing as him and unvote me? That seems a little.... odd to me... FOS

I just said it's an interesting fact that could point to a possible link between you and HeH. I admit it's on the weak side, but it has been noted for future reference.

This is getting ridiculous; SK is single-handedly stalling the game and hasn't posted in just under a week. Replace her or modkill her or something.

People never get modkilled for not contributing, and they shouldn't be. The first thing to do is to ask the mod to prod her, like so:

Mod, could you prod Shotgun_Kitten, please?

Btw, SK has posted in other games on the site more recently than she has posted in this one, including another one I'm in with her ...

[Gorgon]

DS's overraction has been duly noted, whatever the reason for it was.

Couldn't we just vote the people who aren't posting at all out or something, if it's bugging you all that much?

Nope, we really couldn't. We don't lynch inactive people, we get them replaced. I thought this had been made clear enough already.

Vote: liamcool

[Gorgon]

2) biting down hard on the players that've gone after her for lurking, going so far as to vote for liamcool.

I voted him because he indicated that he wanted to 'vote her out' for lurking, which is seriously anti-town. You've indicated the same sentiments, but admittedly you've explained your reasons, which I find credible. I do agree that the constant need for replacements on this site are on the annoying side ...

however

, the culture here does not permit modkilling inactive people, and lynching them is frowned upon as well. My main reason for going after liamcool was that he suggested that an inactive player be lynched

after

this attitude had been made clear enough. Also, as you yourself indicated, he just threw out there without taking responsibility himself. This is scummy; I agree with HeH on that.

I kinda get the overall impression, re: SK, that people aren't so much opposed to lynching lurkers as they are to lynching that particular one.

How so? It happens that S_K is the only lurker who's had any serious pressure and whom people have indicated they wouldn't mind seeing lynched/modkilled/whatever. There's no basis for comparison.

I'm also suprised that SK still has the most "pressure" votes, when we're getting a replacment (apparently).

QFT. Inactive people are notoriously easy for scum to gang up on, in my experience. Not that this bandwagon proves anything solidly, but if S_K turns up town I think it's pretty likely that at least one of the three who were voting her at that point are scum.

I don't like how you vote for liamcool and then immediately make a new post after unvoting him and then voting deepthought. Personally, I would have kept my vote on liamcool and just stated the reasons why you suspect deepthought. I think its very suspicious that you are switching your vote around like this this far into day one.

How is this scummy exactly? I feel HeH explained his thought process adequately ... he went back and reread.

There's a 75% chance any given player in the game is a townie, power roles notwithstanding.

Uh oh. Major alarm bells. Sounds to me like you're saying you know for sure that there are 3 scum. Tsk tsk tsk.

Unvote, vote: deepthought

Btw, D_L_S's post 101 looked quite townish to me.

[Gorgon]

Gorgon, as a quick question, how (do you feel) that post #101 is townish? There honestly isn't very much in that post at all, much less anything to strongly indicate a town affiliation. I'm not FOSing you or anything, but I'd like to hear your reasoning.

Well, I meant townish more as not scummy ... but her sarcasm does slightly indicate to me that she was genuinely indignant.

[Gorgon]

It's interesting that I see a weird relationship between Nudude and charter. It's true that moving her vote like that was awkward, but I wonder if he's looking too strongly for evidence. Then again, scum would, likely, want to lie low in the random voting phase, though I suppose the best ones try to take charge. Dark Lady's vote is pretty awkward as well...

What do you think of LN's vote on D_L_S, then?

Gorgon, it should be obvious that scum, more than townies at least, would not want a vote, giving them a free night. It's true that they want votes on townies, but that's mostly a distraction to by time with as well as speed up something that is mostly carried out by the Mafia.

Well, if the scum don't vote, they leave the voting up to the townies, which makes it harder for them to cast suspicion where they want it to be - on townies. Also, even if all the scum would refrain from voting, that's still not enough to 'give them a free night'; the townies can still lynch someone on their own. However, this discussion doesn't have much relevance to this particular game ...

The point of my posts isn't to say, "how dare you question such a distinguished mafia player", it's to respond to "why are you so sure that there are 3 scum?" I'm so sure because in my experience 3 is standard, and I always start with that assumption on day 1.

It's true enough that 3 scum in a 12-player game is very common, but I'm still trying to figure out whether you genuinely assumed this deliberately, or you're covering a slipup. In a recent game where I was scum, I blatantly yet undeliberately assumed that there were 3 scum in my calculations, but no one picked up on that, even though I was quite nervous about it for pretty much the rest of the game after that. However, this does seem to indicate somewhat that it may not be all that unusual for people to assume 3 scum in a mini, since I got away with it without being called on it ...

That was the main reason why I voted you, btw. I didn't find your anti-lurker stance as troubling, since I thought you gave a pretty good explanation for it.

I quoted that part of your post because you and charter seem to be the only two with any notion of the big picture - you're not looking for players you disagree with, you're looking for players that are trying to trick you into thinking they're townies. If the charge is "you said you don't mind seeing townies modkilled or lynched for lurking", then...no. I don't. I don't even think a day 1 townie lynch is that bad, while we're at it.

I beg to differ. Like I said, I voted you not because I disagree with anything you've said (well, I do disagree with the modkilling of lurkers, but that's not why I voted you). I voted you because you said something I saw as a possible slipup that revealed that you know stuff that you'd only know as scum.

... I've shot down every stupid question and half-argument without getting panicky or (more) irritable ...

I agree that you haven't been panicky. However, what does that prove? To me, this argument just looks like you going: "Look, look, I'm not panicking! I can't be scum then, can I?" Flawed and useless reasoning, IMO.

@Infinitive - While I respect that your insistence of voting only when you're sure is your choice and all, I don't agree with that playstyle. I can see it as an all to easy scum-cover; to vote only when the heat has been turned way up on someone and thus hide behind already raised suspicions. However, I'm no veteran at this game who has playstyles down to an art, so I guess only time will tell how this works out for you and the rest of us.

P.S. I'm thinking along much the same lines as HeH (in post 150) now. Input from the players who have been less than active lately would be helpful at this point. Oh, and what part of HeH's post do you disagree with, Thanatos? Your post (151) is a little confusing.

[Gorgon]

Wow, this is indeed a fast game. I like it.

I'm backing off of deepthought for now. The reason? A fakeclaim on day one is always very unsafe. A counterclaim means that the fakeclaiming scum exchanges his life for that of the counterclaimer. Even though the town loses a powerrole through this, the scum are one down. This is especially true on the first day, when the scum lose quite a lot by sacrificing one of their own. A fakeclaiming gambit on the first day makes much less sense than, e.g. in LYLO.

However, I can see deepthought as just the sort of player who would pull a stunt like this. If we end up not lynching him, it will be very interesting to see if he survives the night or not.

Okay, it seems blaringly obvious due to his nature and all the evidence piling up. I'm probably going to regret this, but I'm going to join on the bandwagon..

Vote: deepthought

I'm not wild about this post.

Seconded. It's time to revisit old pastures.

Unvote

Vote: liamcool

Other thoughts ...

One very interesting thing regarding deepthought's claim that he was thinking of claiming cop to 'fuck with the town' ... when DS questioned him about this, he replied:

Since you all bought into the notion that I was acting like an asshole so easily (and for the record, I still don't see why), it seemed like an appropriate gesture of thanks.

This sounds like he's accepting the fact that the people attacking him are town, or mostly town. Otherwise, why would he say he wanted to get back at them by 'fucking with the town'? If he turns out to be scum, I would not at all be surprised to learn that his partners are among those who did not attack him. Also, I see this as another tell from deepthought; a possible indication that he knows people's alignments in this game.

DS is being a huge douche. He's taking things way too personally. However, I can't really see scum being this aggressive. While his play is not that helpful to the town, I'm not sure it's indicative of him being scum. It sure does make me inclined to keep a very close eye on him, though.

DLS is pinging a little on the scumdar right now. She misrepresented what happened ... made it seem like Thantalos was pressuring deepthought to roleclaim. This is not at all what happened. Whether this was a genuine misunderstanding on her part or not, it still looks scummy. However, she still looks confident ... she practically dared DS to vote her. Townie points for this.

[Gorgon]

Vote Count

deepthought (5)

- Nudude, liamcool, Thanatos, charter, Disciple Slayer
liamcool (2) - Gorgon, Hang'em High
Dark_Lady_Shaiann (1)- Lord Nikon
Disciple Slayer (1) - VampyreLord
Infinitive (1) - deepthought

Not Voting (2) - Infinitive, Dark_Lady_Shaiann,

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

What happens if there is a Modkill. Is it counted as a lynch?

Usually, yes, but it's up to the mod.

Now Liamcool, shame on you, putting DT in a hammer position. Putting down a hammer vote is the scummiest thing you can do. The SECOND most scummiest thing you can do is is putting someone in a position to be hammered.

It very much depends on the situation whether it's scummy to put someone at L-1, or to hammer them. It's something that has to happen eventually, yet you're casting automatic suspicion on those who do it. Anyway, what if DT turns up scum (which you seem to find likely)? Are you still going to call the player that hammered him scummy? Sounds to me a little like you

know

DT is town and want to make sure that people know that anyone who hammers him or gets him close to a lynch should be considered scummy, while you yourself remain free of blame, even though you've been voting DT for a while now yourself. If you were really that concerned about DT getting too close to a lynch, you should have unvoted ... but you chose not to; just FOS-ing liamcool while keeping your vote on deepthought. Way to set up the next mislynch, huh? Or bussing/distancing ...

Am I right, or am I being "Newbish" again?

If by "Newbish" you mean scummy, then yes ... yes indeed.

Big ol'

HOS: Nudude

Now the game's a mess and almost everyone but you two, Thanatos, and Deepthought have stopped posting.

You forgot Nudude, liamcool and charter, interestingly enough. Also, it's the weekend. A lot of people are less active online on weekends than on weekdays.

I don't care if I get lynched or anything anymore.

Classic WIFOM sand in the face. You 'don't care if you get lynched', so you can't be scum, right?

Now I'm going to sit back and wait for the night. If we're lucky, one of the two will get nightkilled to end this damn bickering.

Except it's not night yet, Einstein. Whoops. You thought you were lynching DT, with some lame emo excuse that the game is 'ruined' anyway. Well, I think the game is in perfectly fine shape, and that things are getting much clearer now. I think you just might be scum who decided to wait until the DLS/DS debate intensified to throw the hammer vote down on the claimed doc. I was waiting to see who would use this bickering as a cover to 'move things along', and it turned out to be you.

Big ol'

HOS: Infinitive

As for his doctor claim, I think it's totally false, it seems very desperate in trying to get out of being lynched by saying "ooh, look at me, I'm the doctor".

Uh, he claimed doc. What exactly looked 'very desperate' about the way he did it? What actual evidence do you have to back up your conviction that the claim is false? There's no counterclaim, you know.

You're staying on the bandwagon of an uncounterclaimed doc, which you got on using some very vague wording.

Exhibit A:

I know, I don't have many leads right now but I'm trying the best that I can.

Fair enough ... but do you have any more leads now than you did back when you said that? Also, do you have any leads on anyone else? You're being extremely tunnel-visioned, which to me indicates that you're scum that just wants to lynch DT without saying too much that would give your scumbuddies away.

Exhibit B:

Okay, it seems blaringly obvious due to his nature and all the evidence piling up.

Riiight. First, what is 'his nature', and second, what is 'all the evidence piling up'? I'd love to hear you elaborate on this.

Confirm vote: liamcool

What do you think about deepthroat claiming doc? Do you still think he's the prime suspect, or should we unvote and move on?

This looks scummy to me. If

you

think DT is still your prime suspect, keep your vote on him. If you want to look elsewhere, look elsewhere, and try to actually scumhunt instead of bickering with people over useless sh*t and throwing ad hominem attacks left and right. Don't ask other people who you should be looking at; it just looks like you're looking for the next wagon to hop onto.

FOS: Disciple Slayer

@D_L_S ... you haven't been doing that much actual scumhunting either. You're not even voting anyone. Who do you suspect right now?

P.S. Lulz @ deepthroat. Classic Freudian slip. If deepthought stays on this site long enough to get a title, I think it should be deepthroat.

[Gorgon]

Oh, I see that Infinitive withdrew his vote and explained. Looks kinda reasonable.

[Gorgon]

... except the reason he did that might easily be that he realised that he wasn't actually throwing down the hammer ...

[Gorgon]

Gorgon, page 12 didn't have DT any closer to Lynching than L-2. Infinitive's post would still have been L-1

Well, the reason it seemed to me like he thought he was putting down the hammer vote was that he said he was going to 'sit back and wait for the night'.

[Gorgon]

Okay, first of all ... I don't think it's ever a good idea to direct the choices of the cop. If we decide beforehand who should be investigated, the element of uncertainty is completely eliminated. I get where Thanatos is going with this, but I'm just not sure it's worth it. If DT is town, and the cop is pretty much told to investigate him, the scum will almost certainly kill him tonight. Getting rid of the doc

and

having the cop waste his investigation is way too tempting. Yes, I realise that Thanatos thinks this sacrifice is worth it, but again ... I'm not entirely convinced.

Also, Thanatos ... you had no reason to say you're not the cop. Until the real cop reveals himself (and yes, it's almost guaranteed that there is one in this game, IMO), the town must do everything it can in order to keep the scum in the dark about who it might be. Unless of course you're scum, and therefore don't care about that. There's also the possibility that you just walked into a rolefishing trap set by DT though.

This said, we seem to be in a bit of a standstill regarding DT. He's still at 5 votes, and I'm not sure they're moving anytime soon. It might just be necessary to go ahead and lynch him. I think this will give us a lot of information anyway. If DT is town, it's my belief that his bandwagon is riddled with scum who see this as a perfect opportunity to lynch the doc with firm backing from a few townies, thus hiding among them and making it hard to pick them out. My guess here is therefore 2 - 3 scum on that wagon right now. If DT is scum, however, the people who have been defending him and trying to derail the bandwagon become suspicious, IMO. I realise that I'm probably in this category myself, but what the hey.

Honest assessment ... If the DT bandwagon doesn't move soon, I think lynching him will probably be the only way to move this game forward. There's just too many people who seem to be convinced he should hang, whatever their motives for this are ...

Btw, a few things that interested me:

I don't care for the cop-for-a-scum trade one bit ...

Um, that's pretty much the cop's job description. As soon as the cop has a guilty, he should come forward immediately. You do realise that the scum are in the minority, right?

Anything

that successfully gets one of them lynched is justified. A townie-for-scum trade is always good, no matter what powerrole that townie has. This is the same argument I put forth regarding the possibility of DT's doc claim being fake ... it makes little sense in my eyes to not counterclaim such a fake claim and bag scum. Then again, maybe that's just me ...

Do we want to protect the cop (if any) as much as we can and maximise the time he has to investigate? Have him roleclaim as soon as he finds scum? Or a mix of the two, confirm a few townies, maybe one or two scum, and have him roleclaim?

See above. The cop should come forward as soon as he has a guilty. He can choose to wait a bit and gather additional info over the day, but he should come forward on the day after the night when he gets a guilty. This information is much too valuable to risk taking to the grave.

I don't think we're going to kill you tonight.

Tonight? Slipup?

[Gorgon]

@Infinitive - Then we agree to disagree. I contend that the role of the cop is to find scum, and point it out as soon as he finds one. IMO, it's ludicrous for the cop to sit on this information and risk taking it to his grave. Also, if the cop doesn't point out the scum he's found, he risks a lynching of an innocent instead. And that's just fine and dandy, right?

Scenario: Townie lynched Day 1. Cop finds scum Night 1. Cop remains silent about this. Townie lynched Day 2. Cop survives Night 2 (yay!). Assuming 3 scum, lylo on Day 3. Cop comes forth and claims. Scum counterclaims. TOWN POTENTIALLY FUCKED.

You see my point?

@deepthought - Well, how come you're not voting liamcool, if you find him that scummy and bitch about him not being lynched yet? There's two of us voting him already.

[Gorgon]

Well, I haven't seen any game that I remember here on MS that had an insane cop (except some open game that I vaguely recall were almost everyone was a cop with varying sanities), although of course you can't ever rule that possibility out, I guess.

Anyway, I guess it's best for the cop to just decide on his own plan ... this cop strategising is turning into a distraction, IMO. Also, I see that there's a very real danger that there might be way too many clues dropped about possible cops while this is being discussed.

[Gorgon]

Investigating DT is an utter waste. Even if the cop is sane, and finds DT is a townie or doc, the cop won't be able to convince the town DT isn't scum without blatently revealing himself, which would be stupid unless he has scum to reveal as well.

Well, you missed the part of the plan where it was implicit that if the cop remained silent, DT would be presumed to have been investigated as innocent. Not that I agree with the plan though ...

[Gorgon]

Wow VL, you really are stretching it. Of all the people here, you vote Thanatos because you suspect him of being scum who discusses scum tactics

in the open thread

. That's just silly. No non-braindead person would dream of doing this, when there is plenty of time to discuss any potential topic in private during the actual night, and when more information is available (i.e. who's actually lynched at the end of the day).

FoS: VL

You ask me why I'm voting liamcool. I think that's pretty plain to see. He's been wanting to lynch DT for a while now, while giving this conviction almost no solid backing on his own. Here are some choice quotes:

Okay, it seems blaringly obvious due to his nature and all the evidence piling up. I'm probably going to regret this, but I'm going to join on the bandwagon..

That's just hopelessly vague. This has already been flagged as scummy, and I've already questioned him about this. And as has also been pointed out before, he pointedly says that he's "probably going to regret this" (getting on the bandwagon) ... this can easily be seen as a way to distance from the bandwagon while still riding it.

As for his doctor claim, I think it's totally false, it seems very desperate in trying to get out of being lynched by saying "ooh, look at me, I'm the doctor".

Again, I've already questioned him about this. He offers no explanation as to why he feels that the claim "seems very desperate".

I feel that it damns DT as scum, the evidence, in my opinion, is just too strong. His attempts at trying to convince people he's the doctor are pretty pathetic and just a desperate attempt at saving his life.

Yet again, hopelessly vague ... and I've already questioned him about this. What is the evidence, man?

I note that liamcool has yet to respond to any of these questions.

Do I really need to go in depth? I can if you want me to, but I feel I've made my case well enough.

Regarding DT, for one thing the doc claim is holding me back. I still feel that the real doc would have counterclaimed at this point ... unless it's Lord Nikon, but statistically that's unlikely, of course. Also, DT has said he's from a different background (SA), where games are played differently. Sure, he's pretty toungue-in-cheek, and has said some things that raise eyebrows, but on the other hand, he

has

done what I would call genuine scumhunting. Take his scumdar post (his post 35). I agree with a lot of his thoughts. Also, take his most recent post where he says to VL:

You seem to have avoided talking about me altogether (aside from "Thanatos is slightly scummier than DT"), and surely you realize this looks like you trying to avoid a bandwagon you know is going to turn sour at the end of the day.

1. This is genuine scumhunting, IMO. DT levels a reasonable accusation.

2. DT actually

chastises

VL for not paying attention to him (DT). This gives me the impression that DT is not that worried about the prospect of getting lynched ... instead looking more concerned with finding scum. He's just sitting calmly, with 5 votes on him, and actually flagging people as scummy for

not

joining in discussing him. I would expect scum to be more panicky at this point; more willing to join other bandwagons mindlessly while defending themselves vehemently.

So, in conclusion, I'm increasingly of the opinion that DT is actually town. There are worthier targets here.

However, his bandwagon still doesn't seem to be moving. There are still plenty of people convinced he's scum. Therefore, I am also increasingly of the opinion that if he is in fact town, the scum will be very tempted to let him live the night in order to mess with the town.

[Gorgon]

Yeah, looks like it's going to be DT after all. I'm willing to hammer unless anyone objects. I'll sleep on it (literally) though. 'Nite.

P.S. Whatever happened to HeH's promise of posting content?

[Gorgon]

Very well ... I'll do the deed. I think the discussion here has pretty much been exhausted. I feel good about tomorrow, even if deepthought turns up town.

Unvote, Vote: deepthought

[Gorgon]

Okay, so DT was actually the doc. Crap.

As I said yesterday, something tells me that the DT wagon was swarming with scum. Mafia and SK alike would definitely had an interest in lynching a doc. It allows them to kill whomever they want with impunity.

Thanatos is setting off a lot of bells right now. The way he admits that yes, he needs to be looked at now that DT was found to be a real doc seems suspicious to me. Weren't you saying yesterday that killing him would help the town in the long run? It seems to me that you admitting that you deserve scrutiny now might be away to alleviate suspicion ... that people are now supposed to think: "Oh, he admits that he did wrong and that he deserves suspicion; he must be town."

hmm..I did a short re-read over some things, and noticed that it was insurgent that pushed me over the edge about the the DT lynch. If there was a vig, that might be a reason.

How did he "Push you over the edge"? You were voting DT all through the second half of yesterday.

Also, this is all that Insurgent had to say when he voted DT:

At first I thought infinitive had a point when he said deepthought could be a regular townie pretending to be the doc, but now I think deepthought's just scum.

A compelling argument, eh?

This just looks to me like you're pointing the finger at a dead player who's now proved to be protown and using him as a convenient excuse for the mislynch.

Vote: Thanatos

hmm..I did a short re-read over some things, and noticed that it was insurgent that pushed me over the edge about the the DT lynch. If there was a vig, that might be a reason.

If there was a vig, a SK

and

mafia (with our doc dead), shouldn't there have been 3 NK's?

Not necessarily. Anyone who can kill at night can choose not to do so. A vig is particularily likely to skip his kill. It is possible that there is a vig and an SK, and that the SK killed tonight, but the vig did not. However, I think it's likely that Insurgent was killed by a vig rather than an SK, truth to tell. HeH was definitely killed by scum, though. He was much too protown-looking for it to make sense that a vig would have killed him, IMO.

[Gorgon]

Good content from Infinitive. This sort of effort at least makes me inclined to write him off my list for now, especially since a lot of what he's saying makes sense to me.

DLS, it would help if you could post your thoughts on some other players than DS, if you're that reluctant to go there again.

[Gorgon]

Sorry for not posting. I've been busy.

One thing that I can say is that I agree with DLS that it's slightly suspect that DS should have waded in and analysed HeH's suspicions. HeH was most likely NK'd by scum (in fact, DS was starting off with the premise that HeH was killed by an SK), so there can be any number of reasons for his kill. Sure, his protownness is the most obvious one, but another possible reason is that he was killed in order to lend credit to incorrect suspicions that he had. I've done this myself as scum. Mind you, it didn't work, but I was the one tried to push the case the day after the kill.

In this respect, it is also interesting that DS didn't analyse DT's suspicions. He is a confirmed townie as well, right? Granted, charter already did that, but DS didn't seem all too interested in the subject. Well, it just so happens that DT suspected DS (DT's post 35):

Disciple Slayer - During the asshole-wagon, interjects just often enough to not be lurking but not often enough to be noticed, and without any substance beyond "I need more info" or "I'm confused, check back later". Jumps on the bandwagon claiming my attitude is "pissing him off" despite the fact that he hasn't actually interacted with anyone in a meaningful way, after it's becomes clear that the wagon is a safe bet, but not before testing the waters with an FoS that he can't be held accountable for.

My #2 pick

.

I just wanted to throw that out there for the record. Also, I think a lynched townie's suspicions are, on the whole, more reliable than an NK'd townie's. Scum can manipulate NKs any way they want on their own, but a lynch is always directed in part by townies as well.

That said, I do think that Thanatos overreacted to DS's quoting of HeH's posts. DS wasn't focusing on Thanatos; it just so happens that he found something that possibly painted him/his predecessor in a not too good light.

I FOS'd you because you, when looking for people to link to the murder of HeH, pull 2 different (the 3rd came after I had begun posting, and I need to check up to see my reasponce) examples of him pointing to me, both of which are for reasons which have absolutely nothing to do with me whatsoever. Frankly, I think that looks like your trying to build a case on someone whose under scrutiny, built on logic that's obviously faulty, and I FOS'd you to get you to admit that.

First off, yes, the actions of one's predecessor do matter. Say what you will, but the suspicions still linger. Mind you, it's a bit of a stretch to imagine that you would have found this to be reason enough to kill HeH, but to dismiss this altogether is definitely overdefensive ... especially since DS wasn't focusing on this issue on its own.

Then, Thanatos decides to vote DS:

Frankly, I think your pushing something that you know is wrong. I don't know if I'm going to stick to this, but

Vote:DS

For putting up a baseless arguement, ignoring facts that contradict him, and pushing it harder when arguement is put up against it.

Thing is, DS wasn't pushing anything. He was simply going through HeH's posts, and then voted Thanatos after his overdefensive reaction to this.

My vote stays for now.

[Gorgon]

I've finally caught up with this game again ... I think. It's pretty hard to separate the wheat from the chaff in all these multiple long posts and arguments over things I'm not sure I'm following clearly.

This particularily caught my eye though:

I was kind of wondering that myself. If you mean where she said she wasn't posting until everyone else posted, and then she did anyway, it was very obvious to me that it wasn't a "lie" she just had something to say and didn't feel like waiting on people like me busy with life.

Exactly what I thought when I saw DLS getting attacked for saying she "lied". It wasn't about anything important; just a common enough expression, IMO. She said she wasn't going to post until everyone else has posted, and then she changed her mind. Yet DS is attacking her for having "lied". It doesn't make sense to me. It looks to me like he's throwing everything but the kitchen sink at her and clutching at straws. It almost makes me think there's some major scum distancing going on here, but the problem with that theory is that they were going at it pretty hard on Day 1 too. I can see scum setting up a huge fight overnight, but hardly on the first day when there's been no time to discuss anything beforehand.

Other thoughts ...

I find Nudude's vote on DLS to be rash, but I guess that goes for a lot of the votes that have been cast today. It's not like there's even a bandwagon going.

It looks to me like liamcool has kind of slipped between the cracks today, while others have been active with their debates. I was pretty much the #2 lynch candidate yesterday, and he hasn't contributed an awful lot today, so he's not looking any better. I have a nagging feeling that at least one scum is pretty much sitting this day out, and liamcool fits this bill perfectly. So does VL, come to think of it.

[Gorgon]

I was pretty much the #2 lynch candidate yesterday

EBWOP: Of course that should have read "He", not "I"! Not the best of pronoun mixups, there.

[Gorgon]

Whoa, VL uses the same dodgy "DLS said 'I lied' and lying is bad!" argument that DS uses. Don't like it.

The reason I voted for you is because I think your scum trying to get townies lynched and NK'ed. The evidence is because you continue to refuse to do any scum hunting, or even make a compromise. Further evidence is many posts in you make in your defense, the one that I first noticed being the long post you made in reply to DS's accusation, and the very few (if any) posts you use to hunt scum.

While I agree that DLS has been extremely defensive, how does this further an agenda of getting townies lynched? Just for clarification, please.

I'm not going to vote for you yet, because the day is still young, but rest assured that it will be there when we're done checking other people out.

So, you're going to look at other people, but still vote him when you're done with that? 'Cause that's how this reads to me. Why not just vote him now? This seems a little off to me. I agree with the rest of your post, though.

[Gorgon]

Ugh. VL, that was completely uncalled for. You don't ever come out as a cop just to save one innocent,

especially

if the doc is dead. For one thing, there is such a thing as a Godfather, which liamcool could easily be.

Yes, I am assuming VL is telling the truth, because false-claiming a common role is ridiculously risky. I'm not going to be part of the same mistake we made yesterday; I argued then, correctly, that I felt it was unlikely that the real doc would stay hidden.

Plus, VL wasn't even under any pressure.

[Gorgon]

Well, DS has explained that he was fishing with his 'DLS lied' attacked. I'm inclined to believe him. From the context, I'm also willing to believe that Infinitive was hasty in jumping onto that without looking fully into it himself. However, I'd be jumping all over VL for this if he hadn't claimed cop ... this issue had been discussed thoroughly, so he should have known better.

While I appreciate you sacrificing yourself for me, I would have preferred you not to have done that, for the good of the town. Seriously, it wasn't really a good move, it pretty much guarantees we're both dead during tonight.

Why are you so sure you'll both get killed? VL will get killed for sure if he's the real cop ... but in order for you to get killed, there would have to be an SK, or two scum groups. I'm not sure that's the case ... there may easily just be a careless vig out there, since I don't see Insurgent as a particularily obvious target for scum.

Maybe this is just me doing conspiracy theories again, like with DT. Still, I just don't like this claim one bit. It's a little TOO dumb, if you ask me.

I agree wholeheartedly. However, the problem is that the claim appears to be legit. It hasn't been counterclaimed, and I believe everyone has chimed in by now.

Well, at least I guess the good news is that we can eliminate VL from our list of suspects.

I don't really buy your theory infinitive. Nothing VL has done this game makes me believe he's capable of concocting such an elaborate plan. I think he's just inexperienced and claimed far too early.

Then again, this makes sense too ... and supports the theory that VL is town. Just goes to show that you have to be careful when trying to sort noobs from scum.

It's likely there's at least two scum, and if they haven't voted they could hammer DLS, and I'm not ready for that yet.

A quickhammer is always highly suspicious, especially if it involves more than more than one people. It's therefore usually quite safe to leave people at L-2, as if two people were to suddenly vote at once, they would pretty much condemn themselves.

[Gorgon]

Mod, are we allowed to vote No Vote in this game or not?

What exactly do you propose to accomplish with lynching no one? The only thing that happens is that tomorrow, we will have one or two dead people ... probably the people who are most helpful to the town. Lynching yields valuable information every time ... not lynching yields no information.

However, no lynch is sometimes an option. I'm not just sure this is a situation where it's justified ...

This said, I'm hard pressed to pick anyone I would definitely want to lynch at this point ...

[Gorgon]

I agree that DLS's post about the no lynch is very vague and seems to pretty much leave all the options open, while still subtly pushing towards an actual no lynch. Could this be because she had two votes on her? Or because Thanatos had three votes (and that she was trying to protect him for a lynch, as her scumbuddy)? Quite possibly.

However, DLS brings up an interesting point about Nudude. Why couldn't he just post something on people other than DS, instead of waiting on him to respond while encouraging others to post?

But still ...

I agree it's odd that nudude seems to have dropped his interogation, you still aren't questioning anybody, so I still do believe you're relying on others to do the questioning for you.

QFT on this one.

Oh, and as far as who I think will die tonight, I'm definetly not answering that question. No matter what I say I will get myself in trouble. To question some one about who will and will not die opens up very easy next day lynch targets for scum, by munipulating what that person said, and who actually did get night killed.

I think that was mostly a rhetorical question from charter, and your attitude still seems suspiciously paranoid. How could this be used against you, assuming you're town? By scum killing whomever you think will die tonight? That's just a little too far-fetched, IMO. I myself don't usually read much into nightkills; I especially avoid trying to draw conclusions about who the scum might be from them, as I believe that's usually a fruitless endeavour, since the scum have perfect control over their kills and can try to set up any game of manipulation they want through that method. I believe I've addressed this before.

[Gorgon]

Infinitive seems to think there could be a positive outcome if we did. Why not go argue with him? Why have you zeroed in on me for being fairly ambiguous, asking a question and then agreeing with your answer about a no-lynch?

That's actually a good point. I'm guilty of ignoring that comment of his as well. I can only say that it didn't strike me as particularily suspicous; he was pointing out that a no lynch might possibly have merit, as you say yourself. He was clearer in his phrasing than you were, that's for sure.

Yeah, I know it's far-fetched, but definetly plausable. There is just so much munipulation that could go on there, it would take me forever to write it out. It's all WIFOM. It almost feels like he was trying to set me up in a trap, knowing that suspisions about me are already kind of high. Rhetorical or not, he wanted to see if I would answer it.....

I can see where you're coming from here, although I'm not sure I agree. At least, it didn't come off to me like that.

Gorgon, DLS calling for the possibility of a no lynch is evidence for her being connected to me? Isn't that stretching it a bit?

It's not evidence for anything, per se. It's just one possible explanation, based on an assumption that she's scum that has ulterior motives for wanting a no lynch. It's definitely stretching it a bit, but that's often how it goes in this game - you throw something out there to see the reaction.

[Gorgon]

Those are some very interesting points on Thanatos, Nudude - especially the fact that him and DS were attacking each other at the start of the day, and then both moved over to DLS. I'll need to review this in detail myself, which I unfortunately don't have time for right now. One thing that I can also say that I'm not liking how Thantos keeps insisting that he's leading investigations, when actually he doesn't seem to be.

I note that I still have my vote on him, which I originally placed because of the way he made excuses for his involvement in the DT lynch at the start of today, and yesterday pointed his finger at Insurgent as the person who "pushed him over the edge"; a dead confirmed innocent who is conveniently not here to answer for that. I kept my vote because I didn't like the way he reacted adversely to DS' reviewing of HeH's posts. I must admit, though, that lately that vote has been there just out of habit, but I definitely see no reason to change it now that Nudude's brought ol' Thanatos back into the spotlight. I think there may just be truth in the theory that the clash between Thanatos and DS at the start of the day was deliberately planned - it's definitely food for thought, at least.

I'll try to make some time available over the weekend to review the events of the day better and post more thoughts.

[Gorgon]

EBWOP: The finger-pointing at Insurgent took place at the start of the day as well, of course - not yesterday. I'm not sure how yesterday got in there; probably because I was thinking about yesterday, since the DT lynch happened then.

[Gorgon]

My concern is it is possible we have two townies here threating to lynch each other.......

And Gorgon and charter don't seem to have any thoughts on it.....interesting.

Well, I've been quite busy these past few days with Christmas preparations, etc. Also, I replaced into a large game that's up to about 50 pages now, so that takes some reading ... and therefore time.

Enough with the excuses though.

I find your comment quite interesting.

Firstly, you express concern that the two people with the greatest number of votes just might be townies. One thing that could explain this is that you actually know they're both townies, and thus want to look good tomorrow when one of them gets lynched ("See, told you I had concerns"). Couple this with the fact that you hopped from Thanatos over to Infinitive, and it looks even fishier. You were pushing pretty hard against Thanatos, and now suddenly you're concerned about the possibility of him being town, and also concerned about the person you're currently voting being town? Weird, to put it mildly.

Secondly, you passive-agressively cast suspicion on charter and I for our recent absence. Certainly, absence can be suspicious, but it can also have legitimate explanations. You, however, are directly implying that there are sinister motives at work here. Don't like it. Also, I note that you yourself actually haven't actually commented much on the Thanatos/Infinitive debate.

What you seem to be doing a lot of is to push other people to do post/investigate, which to me looks like your way of coming across as a concerned townie who's really, really concerned about the wellbeing of the town. And now you're pointing at absentees and trying to make them look suspicious. Interesting fact: I've drawn suspicion for this kind of behaviour as scum myself.

I also don't like your post 825, where you apologise to everyone for your 'attacks' and emphasise that there's nothing personal about them. I don't see anyone accusing you of being personal, or taking anything personally, before you made this post. I do, however, see that you were coming under some suspicion for your vote on Infinitive at that point.

You see, the accepted wisdom is that scum tend to be worried about not upsetting people. They want to stay in people's good books. They don't want to rock the boat too much. I'm sure I've mentioned this before, along with the fact that I myself have acted like that as scum, and drawn suspicion because of that. It's mostly a subconcious thing. You don't necessarily mean to act like this, but the worry that you might get under too heavy scrutiny if you antagonise someone leads to this behaviour. That apologetic post of yours is a very blatant example of this behaviour.

I'll need to take the time to review this game properly (Yes, I know that I keep promising to do this; hopefully I can live up to that someday - between Christmas and the New Year should be a quiet time for me), but right now you're pinging pretty strongly on my scumdar, having not registered much there up till now.

[Gorgon]

unvote

[/code]

Care to elaborate?

[Gorgon]

Seeing that I seem to have a little time right now, some more thoughts ...

2) That's totally false. If we lynch DLS, we kill someone who hasn't contributed that much, who has kinda been hanging around on the sidelines.

If we kill Thanatos, we kill someone who, even if he is scum, does investigate and help a lot with the town

.

So you're saying that scum could be helpful to the town? Doesn't make much sense to me. I know you have an innocent investigation on you by a guy who's most likely a real cop, but you sure look scummy to me.

OTOH, I am officially really suspicious of Thanatos at this point. Despite peoples' repeated observation of the fact, his playstyle radically reversed itself when we made the move to day 2. Further, he's really only responded to direct prodding from other people today, his voting aside. Simply put, this flip makes absolutely no sense to me, and makes me wonder what the heck is going on. As I've noted before, Than needed grilling for his part in the day 1 lynch, and the result of that has been him taking really no role in the investigation today.

Thanatos:

I'm sorry, but I've just seen too many coincidences with his name attached to believe that he's an innocent townie. Everyone he's pushed for seems to have turned out town (though I'll admit that I was in there as well), and he's been a vociferous advocate of just plain bad plans for the town.

These two seem to contradict each other. On the one hand, Infinitive is saying that he's suspicious of Thantos for being less proactive on D2 than he was D1, but on the other hand he's accusing him of misleading the town, which is the line he's towing right now.

Why exactly are you suspicious of Thanatos, Infinitive? I'd really love a detailed explanation of this.

[Gorgon]

Okay, yet again I'm sorry for my continued absence - real life issues are the main reason, but that's not the whole story.

You see, I'm playing 4 games right now. You can easily verify this for yourselves by looking at my posting history. I didn't really want to enter this many games at this point in time, but since I'm modding a game that people are dropping out of like flies, I'm forced to take extreme measures to find replacements for that game. One method is so called cross-replacing, where I replace in a game that another player is modding in exchange for that player replacing into my game. This is the reason I'm now playing in 4 games.

Now, playing in many games at once is not a simple matter, especially when you have a limited amount of time to devote to mafia

and

have a policy of not posting in haste, but instead take time to review the game thoroughly and mull over what you're going to say (which applies to my playing style). Thing is, this creates a kind of snowball effect. Once I've taken the time to look over one game and post there, I feel that it would be unfair to neglect the other games, so I do the same thing in all of those. This of course takes a fair amount of time, all in all. More time, really, than I've felt I had available these past few days.

However, I feel bad about neglecting this site for this long, so I've sat down now and will try and take the time to post good content in all of my games.

End of rant ... here comes the actual game-relevant part.

I've voiced my thoughts on both Infinitive and Thanatos, whereas it took a post from me to motivate you into action.

No, it took the fact that I actually had time to post a useful comment to 'motivate me into action'.

You attack me for pointing out you haven't commented, and then proceed comment on Infinitive. I can only assume that means you feel it is reasonable to have some thoughts on the issue. I also think it's reasonable to have some thoughts on the issue, so I found it interesting that you hadn't said anything. Not scummy, not condeming, just interesting, so why do you attack me for it if you agree?

.. snip ...

Lurking IS suspicious, everyone knows that. Not neccesarily damning, but you have to be careful someone isn't slipping under the radar. If people don't post/investigate, there's no information to go off or to formulate opinions. On top of that, I've not just been saying it, I've been doing it, and as a result have generated quite alot of discusson today.

What your saying is it's scummy to call lurkers suspicious. Are you saying that we shouldn't be suspicious lurkers?

That's simplifying things a bit. It was the tone of that post of yours that aroused my suspicion, not the plain fact that you were expressing concerns over my and charter's absense. As I explained, this consisted of two parts: 1) Your expressed worry that Thanatos and Infinitive might just be townies arguing. 2) The implication that charter and I were deliberately holding back and not commenting on this. I saw both of these as potentially scummy, especially when taken together. It was something that stuck out and I felt worthy of probing. Certainly there's nothing wrong with pressuring lurkers, but the way you did it in that particular case seemed underhanded to me. Maybe it's in part motivated by OMGUS, but still ... I didn't like the tone of that post, and I feel I gave very good reasons as to why.

Also, as can be seen in the preface of comment 845, the reason I commented on Infinitive is that I had time to go back and look over what he had been saying about Thanatos. I found an interesting thing there, and felt it was worthy of comment. Interestingly, he hasn't replied to this yet ... and neither has anyone else. Ironic that I'm being critisised for allegedly not contributing while some of my actual contributions are neglected.

If you've been reading the thread, Infinitive has had a quite alot of shit happen in his life these past few weeks, and Thanatos is in the middle of studying for exams which are as stressful as hell. I appreciate that it's a stressful time for them, but that doesn't mean I'm going to ease up on my investigations. I just wanted to say that so as to lessen the personal impact it may have had on them. It may have had absolutely no personal effect on them, but I'd rather waste my breath saying it, just in case.

Scum worry about upseting people. However, so do human beings.

This rings true, and if you're town, I'm sorry for bringing this up, since it must suck to be called suspicious for being nice. But again, I did genuinely feel it was something that was worthy of probing.

This said, Nudude's 872 clarifies his overall stance on lurkers, which I feel is quite reasonable. You have to be willing to lynch lurkers in order to deter scum from the strategy of sitting back, and therefore I'm sorry to see that I've gained this stamp in the eyes of some people in this game. I can only restate my previous explanations for my recent absence, and point to the fact that I do try to make my posts insightful, and I have taken stances on important issues in this game.

I'm still not liking liamcool. His post 874 is appalling and decidedly anti-town. If he really wants to pressure me for information, why doesn't he comment on the information that's already out there? What's the point of pressuring for information if you're not going to comment on it? He also implies that I don't contribute, which is (IMHO) plainly wrong. Well, I've definitely contributed now. Do you have any actual thoughts on this or anything else that's been said for the past few pages?

Statistically, liamcool is more likely to be town than a GF. However, this does not mean that he's totally cleared of suspicion, or has been somehow excused from contributing. The same goes for VL, come to think of it ... as far as the second part goes, since he has indeed pretty much been cleared through his cop claim. Seeing that this is probably his last day, we could use more from him.

charter, DS ... both need to start contributing, or be replaced. Hopefully DS will actually make good on his promise to contribute after Christmas, but charter seems to be AWOL for now.

And oh, btw, that quote of Infinitive's in Nudude's 849 (Where Infinitive says he's going to 'sit back and wait for the night') is something I addressed the time. Did you miss that part, Nudude? Because the way you're presenting this is like you're making some awesome new find, which is clearly not the case. Back then, I obviously did contribute something you find worthwhile, even if you don't (for some reason) give me credit for that. You do get kudos for connecting this with Infinitive's vote just now, but still ... it kinda sucks to not get any credit for a worthwhile past contribution while being attacked for allegedly not contributing.

Well, again, that's all I have for now. I can't guarantee the date of my next post in this game (except it will be before the new year), but at least this is should provide something to chew on.

[Gorgon]

Unvote

Vote: Disciple Slayer

After this long an absence, suddenly you're bored with the length of the day? A day that you haven't really been a part of. I honestly can't see this as anything other than lurking, then popping up to join the biggest bandwagon.

[Gorgon]

Wow - that was a fast lynch. DS didn't even get a chance to claim, much less explain anything else. I was expecting a pressure bandwagon to get the guy to talk, not an outright lynch. If DS turns up town, everyone on that wagon needs to be examined to death.

[Gorgon]

Okay, so Than has claimed blocked vig.

Reasons why this is credible:

- Than hinted often enough that he had a powerrole. He would therefore be a logical choice for a scum roleblocker.

- He's also a logical choice for a town roleblocker, given that enough people have expressed suspicions against him.

- As Infinitive points out, no counterclaim. I'm not counterclaiming, so that leaves only liamcool and charter (or his replacement) as possible counterclaimants.

If he's lying, then ...

- He might be an SK. As has been pointed out, he has exhibited eagerness to go to night. If he is SK, claiming vig is a risky, but high stakes gambit. He could have chosen not to kill last night, or he might simply have been blocked, as he claims.

- He might also be mafia. Less likely than SK, IMO. A mafia member with extra killing powers apart from the standard one nightkill for the mafia group is rare, at best. I don't remember seeing it, but if someone could point to an example of this, it would be quite helpful. Anyway, given that he's not something like that, it's very, very risky to claim vig, knowing that there were two kills on the first night, so the possibility of a counterclaim is all too real.

I'm not entirely sure what to think at this stage, but I lean slightly toward town Than. A reread would probably be enlightening.

Of course, I'm glad they didn't, since VL didn't investigate anyone, but whatever.

What do you mean by this?

It's possible that liamcool is the GF, but it's also possible to flip a coin twelve times and have it comes up heads every single time. Possible, but very unlikely.

It's actually not

that

unlikely. It's just somewhat less likely that he's a GF than a townie.

The odds that VL picked the GF to investigate are 1/10 ... maybe 2/10 if there are two mafia groups with one GF each, but I don't think that's a likely setup.

Given that we have, say 3 scum in all in this game (2 scum is a very unrealistic assumption), the odds that VL picked a townie to investigate are 7/10. This is lowered to 6/10 if there are 4 scum (2 mafia groups, or one 3-person mafia group with 1 SK - although I'm not sure if an SK gives a cop a guilty result). Let's say it's 6.5/10.

These numbers come mostly from gut - I'm no expert at calculating odds, but I think this about right.

DLS- the fact that Liam came up scum has cleared a significant amount of the suspicion I felt toward her. It is possible that the flamewar and general animosity was engineered, but it seems to genuine to me. Barring anything I've missed, I'm all but ready to move her to the cleared list.

You mean DS, not Liam, right? There's no way to read that otherwise so it makes sense. Anyway, I agree with this, for the most part. I don't see DLS and DS as scumpartners, given their history - the flamewar was just ... a little too much for it to be distancing, IMO. I've never had any solid suspicions on DLS anyway. This might change on a reread though. Btw, I recommend every townie do a full reread of the game, now that we know that DS was scum. It's very useful to reread games with added knowledge of people's alignments, especially when they're scum, since one can look for links to other players that might possibly out scumpartners.

[Gorgon]

Sorry, I've been very busy lately, as can be seen in that I haven't posted anywhere. I'll try and make up for it over the weekend.

[Gorgon]

I have to admit, you make some good points. It doesn't make alot of sense if your a SK. In fact, the one theory I came up with is that if you are an SK, it's in your best interests to kill scum tonight if we lynch a townie, in which case we should let you live one more night at the very least just in case we get it wrong today.

Remember ... he says he was roleblocked. If he's correct, which is likely, he's useless for the rest of the game since the roleblocker now knows he chose correctly. I don't believe the roleblocker would want to block someone else, whether it's a town or a mafia roleblocker.

How can you be so certain Thanatos is going to get NK'ed tomorrow? If he's scum, and survives the night he could just as easily say "Geez, they must have role blocked me again". No matter how you look at it, if there is a role - blocker, there is zero reason to kill Thanatos tonight. They can continue to role - block and confuse the town. While Thanatos, to you, may not be the best lynch, that logic is flawed.

There is no logic that can 100% prove or disprove Thanatos claim untill he is either lynched or he gets to end - game, and I'm amazed everyone so far is accepting his claim so readily, going so far as to call me scummy because I don't accept it straight away.

... as you admit here. Yes, I agree - I think Thanatos will just be blocked and blocked until he's lynched.

I believe the evidence that Thanatos might be the SK is mounting. He didn't actually take that big of a risk. Say he's SK. He killed Insurgent N1 (A choice I don't fully understand). He then states at the end of D2 that he will claim the next day. He then tries to kill Nudude, gets blocked (or just skips the kill), and sees that there was just one death that night. He knows pretty much by now that there's most likely no actual vig in the game. He goes ahead and claims vig.

Another thing that bothers me is his whole SKs count as townies in the endgame, which was misleading. It came off to me like he was saying that if all the mafia are dead, the SK wins with the town, which is false. Only in a very limited number of situations is it beneficial for town to keep an SK alive. I also find it suspicious that he should address the possibility, and this makes me more inclined to believe that he's an SK playing for survival.

I also feel that the fact that Thanatos has been seen to be eager to go to night is a strong clue.

In his favour, he does protest against Nudude's plan of 'betting the game', which is admittedly a rather silly plan. No townie should ever offer to sacrifice himself. If we lynch Thanatos today and he's actually town, we should consider the situation carefully - no just rush to lynch Nudude, just because he made a bet. Come to think of it, this could be a way for Nudude to come off townish ...

Btw, I see charter still hasn't been replaced. This is frustrating, as we can't really have a full game without all the player slots filled.

Also, liamcool is very quiet. Either that's his playstyle, or he just thinks he gets a free pass because he's been investigated as innocent. That's by no means true.

[Gorgon]

... This is a pretty good chunk of the reason that I think he's the Godfather; it's absolutely in his best interest to do nothing whatsoever at all right now that might possibly incriminate himself, or even draw attention back to himself. ...

... or connect himself with his scumpartners.

I was looking over DS's posts to find connections (finally I took the time!) and noticed that DS was casting suspicions on liam on D1, while remaining fixed on DT, the doc. Very possible distancing.

Then there is this little gem (DS's post 83):

The cop, whoever it is,

should investigate liamcool if DT gets lynched

, and vice versa if the opposite happens. Doesn't mean he has to come forward with the info, but one of the two should definitely be investigated.
@DT

Are you and liamcool partners in crime? Are you setting it up so that if one of you gets lynched and turns up mafia, suspicion on the other will lessen due to your blatant fingering of each other?

Theory: That was deliberate, in order to get the doc lynched,

and

the GF investigated and cleared. If so, it worked beautifully.

Also, in DS's post 115 (This is day 2), addressing liamcool:

Man, you have some posting to do. Get more active.

Coaching buddy liamcool to be more active?

Admittedly, DS does say this in his post 151:

If liamcool's been scummy the whole game, but turned up innocent in an investigation, he could very well be the godfather.

... but he never actually goes after him. Despite liamcool being his #2 suspect D1, he instead pursues mostly DLS and Thanatos throughout D2, and only in passing mentions the possibility that yes, liamcool might be the godfather. But why not pursue it further, if he was that convinced D1?

Also, note that DS didn't even go after liamcool D2 at all - not even

before

VL revealed his investigation.

I think this is a theory that's well worth pursuing.

Vote: liamcool

[Gorgon]

As for myself, IRL my work revolves around statistics, and statisical it is unlikely liamcool is the GF, so I will need something very compelling to vote for liam.

Remember, the statistics are based on the assumption of pure randomness. My theory is that the randomness was skewed, both by liamcool's acting scummy (because he was scum), and DS's directing of the cop.

Unfortunately, VL is dead now, and never said why he investigated liamcool, but I think the theory is strong nevertheless.

You lied to us in D1. How can any of us believe that you are not trying to misguide us yourself?

Explain please.

Gorgon, I really don't like how you waited for Infinitive to make a post before commencing your case on me. You seemed to have it fairly well fleshed out: if it was prepared earlier, why not post it back then?

It wasn't prepared earlier. This was something I spotted when I decided to go over DS's posts. I admit that I was specifically thinking about you, but that doesn't change the fact that I think I have a good theory.

Regarding the reason why I did this ... my thinking was as follows:

- Thanatos is either vig or SK. All the scenarios where he's mafia are contrived and unlikely.

- This leaves probably two mafia. Two of DLS, liamcool, Infinitive, Nudude, and charter/replacement.

- I'm not entirely convinced by the case on Nudude. He seems way too eager and active to be scum. The scummy things about him are that he keeps pushing others to post, but he does contribute himself. Anyway, I wanted to look elsewhere, if only because I'm looking for more than one mafia member.

- The only thing that does

not

cry scum about liamcool is the innocent result. I therefore thought he deserved some thorough going over; he shouldn't be dismissed just because of the investigation.

So there you have it.

I want to lynch liam, because I think he's the GF who has sailed through the game based on only a contrived investigation result.

I have no problem with lynching someone else, though, per se, but I

will

vote for liam tomorrow if the town hasn't lost the game already.

I disagree that Nudude is today's lynch. If you really think this is because I'm his scumbuddy who's desperately trying to protect him, go ahead and lynch him for all I care. If you do, I kind of hope he turns up town, though, because I'd sure to be next ... i.e. if other people buy into DLS's theory.

Anyway, I still think DLS is town. Same goes for charter. I'm not so sure about the others, but of course there's bound to be at least scum there.

[Gorgon]

EBWOP: If you do, I kind of hope he turns up town, though, because

if he's scum,

I'd sure to be next ... i.e. if other people buy into DLS's theory.

[Gorgon]

Let's see ...

Nudue makes a very good point regarding the fact that if Thanatos is the SK, it would be foolhardy of him to announce his vig status, as it would paint a target on his forehead - the mafia could take him out whenever they wanted to. Better then to keep them in the dark about who their rival NK'er is.

However, I fail to understand how if Thanatos survives the night, he should be lynched tomorrow. We know that if Thanatos is telling the truth, there's a roleblocker out there who probably has no better target than him (seeing that we have both a dead doc and a dead cop). Why then not just block him and kill someone else - especially if you're

setting things up beforehand

so that Thanatos should be lynched if he survives the night? This is assuming the roleblocker is a scum roleblocker ... as I'm leaning towards believing. And I'm also leaning towards, from Infinitive's find, it being Nudude. Yes, I admit that he's looking scummier and scummier today. His fixation on Thanatos is vexing, considering the fact that he's now saying that Than is not likely to be an SK. This means that in order to lynch Than, Nudude must believe that Than is scum; an unlikely scenario, in my mind.

Therefore I find this vexing about Infinitive as well; that he's saying that Than is the clear lynch tomorrow if he survives the night. In fact, Infinitive says that Than is the clear lynch

even if Nudude is lynched as town today

. However, in order for this to be a winning strategy for the town, you'd have to believe that Than is mafia. Would his survival overnight be enough to justify this belief? I find that hard to believe, especially in the scenario where a townie is lynched today, and thus the roleblocker remains alive.

Look at it this way - if a townie is lynched today, there are most likely two mafia left, and town will be at LYLO tomorrow. Why not then just take the gamble that town will believe that Than is mafia and have him lynched? Instant mafia win. If they don't buy it, they'll have to lynch one of the mafiates. If they don't, the mafia can just block Than and kill any townie, and win.

The 'lynch Than tomorrow if he survives' is therefore a dangerous line of thought, and one that I warn strongly against. Nudude and Infinitive are both suspicious for advocating this. However, Nudude is more suspect overall. His continued tunnel-visioned focus on Than is troubling - and I note that he dismisses the liamcool=GF possibility completely, even though I think I may be onto something there; something that renders pure statistics less reliable.

Current theory: liamcool and Nudude are the two remaining scum; liamcool is GF, Nudude is RB.

(Now watch as I draw suspicion for 'changing my mind' )

P.S. I'm still waiting on liam to explain what the heck he meant when he said that DLS lied D1.

[Gorgon]

What DLS is referring to is this:

Masons are a group, usually all on the Pro-Town side, that know each other to be innocent. They can communicate with each other at Night, if they choose, but otherwise usually have no special abilities.

In one variation of the Mason role, the Masons cannot reveal that they are Masons to the town through roleclaiming. Instead, they must find other ways to defend each other.

This would explain perfectly why Nudude never claimed. So don't expect a claim today either.

The actual wiki entry is here:

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mason

As an afterthought, if Coolbot's thinking on the RBer is correct (it could be either town or scum), I'm not sure that it would actually

matter

at this point, as the only active role left is scum and RBer in any case, which severely limits the RBer's ability to affect anything anymore.

A town roleblocker could block the scum's nightkill, if he blocks the person who's chosen to perform the kill.

A town with cop, doc, vig, & blocker is a powerful one, but not so powerful that we can't rule it out without having any idea what the remaining scum roles are.

You forgot the Masons. Although admittedly, they're weakened by not being allowed to claim.

Anyway, I'm not exactly sure what to think. This is a very bad position to be in, and we need to be very careful here. Two powerroles have been lynched so far, and DS was a fluke more than anything, IMO. If he hadn't played that badly at the end of D2, he'd probably have managed to escape the noose.

Everyone has chimed in today except liam. He was going to be absent until Friday, right?

[Gorgon]

So the Masons

can

claim.

Damn it liam - why did neither of you claim yesterday?

If Nudude had just claimed Mason, there's no way he would have been lynched.

Although I understand better now why he was sceptical of Thanatos' claim ...

Between liam's innocent result and the Mason claim, there's no reason to suspect him any more. Unless there's a counterclaim, he's our second Mason.

[Gorgon]

Okay - either Infinitive's claim that he didn't see Thanatos state directly that he would kill him if Nudude turned up innocent is a bluff, or he's not paying attention. Either way, he doesn't look to good.

Unless the scum thought there would be a good reason to assume that Thanatos was lying about this plan (

or somehow missed the plan

), it would not have made sense for them to block him, if Infinitive is not scum. Otherwise, they could just have let Thanatos carry out the kill, killed him, and won the game. 2-2 is win for scum. With the doc dead, a plan like this is pretty much guaranteed to work out.

This is yet again assuming there are two scum remaining. There are definitely not three, or the game would be over. One scum remaining is quite unrealistic, especially since there is obviously no SK.

Btw, if liamcool is fakeclaiming, the real mason should step forth now. One of them will definitely be lying, and 50/50 odds is not bad at all, especially when both claimants can be pumped for info, and analysed to the death.

Regarding the plan of having the mason publish the night conversations, I don't think this is allowed, in general. However, I guess that's up to the mod to rule on.

[Gorgon]

... or the roleblocker could be town, and was worried about losing the game if Thanatos chose incorrectly. I feel this is unlikely, though, given all the town powerroles already revealed.

[Gorgon]

Sorry for the triple-posting, but I've been thinking about this game pretty hard, seeing as this may be the end for the town, if we mislynch today.

Infinitive's point about the Mason possibly not being able to claim is valid ... it may be that the Masons are indeed not allowed to claim, and that liamcool is exploiting this fact. Therefore, if there is a real Mason out there who's not allowed to claim, perhaps he can state that he's not allowed to claim.

However, I feel that the evidence fits with liam being Mason with Nudude. It explains, for example, why Nudude was so dead set against lynching liam. I felt this might have been because Nudude was scum with liam, but the possibility of Masons never occured to me. Had I been in Nudude's shoes (assuming the Masons in this game are allowed to claim), I'd have claimed. No question.

[Gorgon]

Sorry, I've been quite busy these past few days.

I hope liamcool and DLS are still with us at this critical time in the game ...

Anyway, here's how it looks like from my point of view.

Since liamcool is obviously a Mason, three players who could be scum remain. There's most likely two scum left.

DLS and charter/CoolBot have always looked townish to me. Obviously, though, at least one of them is scum. However, I would be very surprised if both of them were scum. It's possible, but if they are, they've played this game impeccably. Infinitive, however, has undoubtedly done a lot of dubious things in this game. He does admit it, but this could be a sly preemptive move on his part. His lack of scumhunting today is pretty telling. He needs to present his suspicions just like the rest of us. In fact, since he's in such a precarious position, his best defensive move would be to find the actual scum, assuming he is town (which I find unlikely at this point, truth to tell).

Regarding the rest ... since there probably is at least one scum there ...

DLS was suspicious of both me and Nudude yesterday, since it looked like she saw a connection between us. If she's scum, she knew Nudude would come up town. Why then was she casting suspicion on me as well? She'd have known that it would all be mostly for nothing when Nudude came up town. Of course, this could have been a sophisticated bluff on her part, but I'm not sure.

CoolBot has been coming off as a pretty aggressive and tunnel-visioned. He was tunneled against Nudude, and now he's being tunneled against Infinitive. No regrets about having been part of the Nudude lynch, CoolBoot?

[Gorgon]

Wow - I must admit I all but forgot about this game. Sorry ...

I use the list of watched topics, but this game had dropped far down that list ... I just remembered the darn thing and decided to pop in.

I probably should have been prodded long ago. Well ... better late than never, I hope.

Looks like the only people active are CoolBot and Infinitive. I see the former has now voted the latter. From my point of view, I can say with certainty that he won't get quickhammered ... I'm town, and liam is a mason (without question), so regardless of the alignments of the remaining three players, the scum can't hammer (I'm assuming neither myself nor liam will join in the voting in haste).

Putting this more simply, even if Infinitive is town, the scum (assuming two of them, which is very likely) have to be CB and DLS, so they don't have enough votes to lynch. However, it must be noted that under the posted rules, two scum can win at deadline, since two is the majority of three.
Therefore it is very important that the townies use their votes before the deadline.

Again, from my point of view, and again, assuming two scum my chances of hitting scum are 2/3. Right now I'm thinking either Infinitive or CB (or both; that vote, following an intense attack would be a pretty clever distancing tactic ... with the cop dead, CB would be pretty well set tomorrow if he busses his buddy today. Also, as per the above, scum can easily move their votes at deadline to win, so a vote right now doesn't matter all that much). I'm having trouble deciding though; it's a gruelling situation to be in for sure.

[Gorgon]

Well, the deadline is approaching fast, and the town will probably lose if we don't lynch today. At least one more vote on someone who has a vote on them already is needed for this.

Vote: Infinitive

Let's hope this is right.

[Gorgon]

Good game. We did discuss whether to just allow Thanatos to kill, but decided to play it safe by blocking him. This game would have been over quite a bit sooner if we had just allowed the kill to go through.