Open 32 - Pick Your Poison Mafia (Game Over!), before 470

[Bookitty]

Hello! I'm rereading the thread (I say that a lot) and I have already found something that just doesn't ring true to me.

In Post 188, Patrick says:

I didn't know anything for sure. I said that if SSF was town, the hammer was suspicious. Even if SSF had been scum, the hammer would have been suspicious to some extent.

If someone is lynched, and comes up scum, how is it suspicious to have put the hammer on scum? In the early stages of the game, bussing seems to me to be such a bad tactic for scum, because it doesn't even make them look innocent when so many other people are involved in the lynch... so I'd like an explanation of why it's suspicious "even if SSF had been scum."

Guardian, I can't justify my predecessor's actions, and I don't think it's especially useful for me to try to guess what he was thinking. I won't ask anyone to move their vote unless they're convinced I'm working to help the town. I would ask for a bit of time to do that, but I don't usually take that long in coming out with my analysis of the situation, so I'm not asking for a lot of time. I thank you for your forebearance while I catch up.

[Bookitty]

We know with certainty the identity of one Mafia member. So I did an analysis of Mneme in isolation, to try to collect evidence of links/distancing. First Mneme votes somestrangeflea randomly, then votes xyzzy (now me) for crapwagoning. Unvotes xyzzy when it looks like he'll be lynched too quickly. I'm not sure why he does this. I'm leaning toward the theory that there were too many scum on that wagon, and when xyzzy came up town, Mneme thought it would be too easy for others to look at that wagon and identify them. I'm not sure, though, because there were a LOT of people on that wagon, comparatively.

Exhibits hypocrisy on dylan's behalf, excusing dylan because "he always plays like that" while condemning xyzzy by saying, "If you do the same thing every game, and it tends to result in your getting lynched, perhaps the best answer isn't to keep saying "stop lynching me for my playstyle!"." (I dislike xyzzy's playstyle as well. I don't understand the theory behind playing unhelpful town, it just irritates me.)

This hypocrisy is only a tenuous link to dylan. A more notable one occurs later, in addressing Patrick: "Re Dylan: you've pointed out that he pretty much always plays this way (ie, badly) town or scum...but you've still got a vote on him. There are situations where simultaneously attacking and defending the same player makes sense, but it's still notable." This seems like defending dylan. WIFOM, maybe, but it is some sort of link anyway, when paired with the previous hypocrisy on Mneme's part.

Mneme seems confused about his own top suspects, in one case putting Patrick in third place, in another denying that he does this. "Re "top three" -- the top three rollup wasn't as thought through as the rest of the PBPA, so a second analsys of it revealed different priorities. I still like Rishi and TM, though."

This could be distancing with Patrick; it could also be trying to "get along" with everyone. I'm leaning toward the first explanation right now.

Voting for Shanba seems more an opportunistic thing (look at him, not me!) than any kind of link, but it happened so I'm pointing it out too.

I'm going to read Dylan/Setael and Patrick in isolation next. I should have some more focused thoughts about that soon.

[Bookitty]

For all interested: xyzzy here reminds me of xyzzy in Fire & Ice mafia, which I modded. He was scum, and was lynched day one -- as he

should have been here

...

When asked why he hadn't looked into the people involved in the vote swing away from xyzzy, in order to try to identify scumbuddies since he seemed so certain that xyzzy was scum...

I would be -- if xyzzy is lynched and comes up scum.

It makes no sense to analyze the swing

assuming he could be scum, if he is in fact not scum.

How do you reconcile these two rather conflicting statements? Your level of certainty seems to swing pretty widely in only a two-post interval.

[Bookitty]

Why is it more likely distancing than trying to get along? As I remember it, he put me on his top list of three for some slapdash reasons, probably hoping I wouldn't actually pick apart his reasoning at all. When I did he said that actually I wasn't that suspicious and that actually a whole bunch of other people were worse than me. Why did you get distancing out of that as the most likely explanation?

Because of his reaction, not yours. He seemed to be both trying to show conflict with and suspicion of you, while at the same time not saying anything particularly incriminating about you. It seemed suspicious, like saying "I have a gut feeling" when scum doesn't want to give any real case against one of their buddies.

I'm still in the process of reading and rereading this thread, so it's possible that there WAS nothing particularly incriminating he could find to say about you. I haven't found much yet, and I've been specifically looking. The worst I can find, from my own perspective, is that you didn't pursue Jack very hard after your extreme reaction to Ms Piggy's quickhammer, and I don't find that suspicious enough.

I'm starting to believe, begrudgingly, that Mneme might have been far more clever than I'd hoped, and that he left deceptive clues as to the identity of his compatriots. This makes me sad.

Back to rereading.

[Bookitty]

We don't know xyzzy's allignment. It makes no sense to analyze the actions of those defending him

assuming

that he is scum. It does make sense to lynch him, and

then if and only if he is scum

, analyze the actions of those defending him. I think it is highly

likely

that xyzzy is scum, but until that is proven, we should not focus on those defending xyzzy.

That's why I didn't like Setael asking me to analyze his actions now -- that we don't know xyzzy's alignment. Perhaps Setael does, and thus thought it would make sense to analyze those defending xyzzy. Thus the FOS.

Okay. If you don't know xyzzy's alignment, (I do, actually!) then I would guess that if you're voting to lynch him, and you intend to lynch him, then... you're assuming he is scum already, right? Or is it beneficial in some way I haven't yet heard to lynch town?

Wouldn't it make more sense to analyse the actions of those defending him, and try to find his companions, since you ARE assuming he's scum? How does tunneling on one person assist you in finding multiple scum?

You say you don't know my alignment. But you think it's more beneficial to lynch me, which seems to indicate you think I'm scum. You seem to be only interested in lynching me, and not at all interested in looking anywhere else. So if you're certain enough that I'm scum to lynch me, why isn't that enough to justify the analysis that Setael suggested? But rather than consider this idea, you point an FOS at her instead.

Arguing that you're certain enough that I'm scum to lynch me, but not certain enough I'm scum to bother to do any investigating or analysis in order to find other possible scum... that's an interesting contradiction. And you still have yet to explain it to my satisfaction.

[Bookitty]

So tunneling on one target, when there are multiple scum, makes more sense than trying to ascertain relationships between possible scum and analysing such relationships before lynching someone who might turn out to be innocent?

This is where you stand?

[Bookitty]

I do, however, think it is a waste of time to try and ascertain what a wagon shift means on

someone whose alignment we are unsure of

means, in terms of those who helped shift the wagon.

If I had a day-vig, Bookitty, scum, would be dead right now.

Her last 3 of 4 posts have done nothing but confirm my suspicions of xyzzy.

Die, scum; die.

All right. You understand you have JUST done it again? You've asserted your absolute assurance that I'm scum, to the point that you would kill me with a day-vig right this very second if you could (and you'd be killing town, just so you're aware, and can't say I never claimed) -- and in the same paragraph, you just said "someone whose alignment we are unsure of" -- do you GET that this is a contradiction?

Do you know what a straw man is? I'm QUOTING you, Guardian, I'm not putting words in your mouth. YOU are putting them there. I'm not asking you rhetorical questions, I'm pointing out that you're contradicting yourself, not once, but repeatedly.

And I think I've given you plenty of time to realise this and to correct yourself.

unvote; vote: Guardian

[Bookitty]

I think that pointing out your contradictions helps town a great deal. And I suspect that you know that.

A straw man argument is one where I set up a spurious case for you, and then demolish it. Generally speaking it doesn't apply when YOU set up your own case and then I demolish it. Just for the record.

And no, if I were trying to help my own case, I'd be quiet, I'd follow the crowd, I wouldn't provoke any controversy at all. I am aware of this. But if my death gains valuable information for the town, then it's worth it. And the longer this argument draws out, the more people will remember it, and look at your statements for exactly what they are worth. Which is why, I would guess, you're "not going to continue responding".

[Bookitty]

Okay, since you asked so nicely:

schismatized starts with the wagon on xyzzy (I occasionally think that people pick such difficult names to spell in order to prevent people from voting for them) and then makes a statement that makes some sense. "I think that wagon got a lot of info from xyzzy. If someone had to die right now, it would be him. Its much to early for that so i am going to unvote vote: Mert." Which is notable only because Mert was the nightkill.

Some hasty and spurious logic on the part of schismatized here:

"I was more suspicious of xyzzy when i voted for mert, but i didnt and still dont think we have had enough discussion to end the day. Given that, i just voted for the next scummy person in my mind." (This phrasing is just off. It also links you to Mert who was NKed, and I tend to look for such linkages.)

Attacks dylan for doing exactly what he admitted to earlier, apparently because dylan requested discussion of the matter:

I do think that xyzzy is scum but I'm thinking about changing my vote to somestrangeflea.

but I'm not trying to push a faster lynch... so I won't do it yet if there's still a lot of discussion.

? thoughts ?

If you think hes scum then vote for him. Asking someones permission looks like a setup for if he turns up town after lynch. You could easily say, "well xxxxx told me to vote for him."

This is reaching for an argument, and seems hypocritical considering his own actions. When dylan votes, schismatized makes a sniping comment, then vanishes completely.

Mneme's weird interaction with Patrick mentions schismatized, well after schismatized stops playing. This is a point in your favour, I think: "Patrick: major lurking. contradictory play re dylan. (probably the least scummy of those listed; based on the PBPA, schismated, xyz, and dylan are probably more scummy)."

You finally enter the game, pages later. Put an FOS on xyzzy, which I understand, and another on JDodge, which I heartily approve (playing unhelpfully is scummy, regardless of your role).

I don't like this phrasing, it's oddly gentle, considering: "mneme, convince me to vote someone else." A little later, "mneme, you very well could be town, but you easily could be scum and you've done nothing to convince me otherwise -- and its not like I have extremely high standards."

Based on your tone with others, this seems awfully nonconfrontational.

You congratulate the "doc/rb/other", which people make a lot of fuss over. I don't see it myself, it seems more an indication of gratitude, but it causes comment. Later you respond with "I've read jeep's thing too... I congratulated whomever despite having read it; our doc/rber/whatever did a good job, and I thought it would be nice to congratulate them..." which seems strange too, but not really scummy.

You say this, which is phrased REALLY oddly:
"Would have been a better day one lynch, still likely to be scum."
You understand that people's roles don't change, right?

You're still criticising JDodge for not posting but you post this: "Also, no one's asked me any questions, and my opinions haven't change, meaning I don't need to post." There are other reasons to post. One is to promote discussion with the town.

You clash with Setael, in part because you don't think there's any validity to investigating your prime suspect's strange escape from lynching. (I'm not saying I'm not grateful, because otherwise I wouldn't have gotten to play with you all, I'm just saying it's pretty strange when you look back at it that everyone swung their votes away to somestrangeflea. Knowing both our roles, I know that it was most likely just chance, because I see no reason scum would want to keep me in the game. Xyzzy was playing pretty awfully, so maybe they thought they could use him as a distraction. That's my best guess.)

And here is where I part ways with you in a big way. Regardless of Setael's alignment, it makes sense to go back and analyse the game, and try to make linkages between people. Setael played dylan, and schismatized pushed dylan to a vote and then vanished. Setael's argument with you makes sense, regardless of her alignment. For the same reason you look scummy to me, because you're attacking me and I'm town (he must KNOW I'm town, and he's attacking me! There's a reason OMGUS is a common phrase, and that's a large part of it), you may look scummy to her because your predecessor attacked hers.

Setael presents a great many theoretical possibilities. Clearly all of them cannot be true. But your post 385 takes these out of context and addresses them as if she said they were all true simultaneously, which is deceptive. You speak of a straw man? This post is the definition of it. You also said this, in the same post: "OMGUS, HOS: Setael. If the case on you has any merit, you're getting a vote." And then you post this little gem:

I'd like to get other people's reactions to Setael before I continue further.

I have a few things to bring up, but I'd like to see what a few specific others think, if that's OK.

which is EXACTLY what your predecessor nailed dylan to the wall for, isn't it?

And since Setael never does get a vote from you, I'm guessing your case against her has no merit.

I want to note that you never do explain why you find xyzzy's posts scummy, and I'd be interested in such an analysis, since you've asserted that you do.

The recent argument between you and me doesn't require recapping for anyone, I think, but your strange wishywashiness about "you may be town, but I am sure you are scum, but I don't want to assert too much certainty, but if I had a gun I'd kill you dead, but you still might be town" (and yes, I can see how this would be annoying, but I still think it's a pretty close paraphrase to what you've said, as a rereading of our posts will attest) seems scummy to me. Either you think I'm scum, or you think I'm not. Trying to cover both sides of the equation seems to me to indicate that you want others to think I'm scum, while you can still have an out and say, "I said IF she was town! See, not certain!" when your accusation is disproved. And that shows a level of knowledge of my alignment that makes you suspicious in my eyes.

OMGUSsy? Maybe. I don't think so, but it's certain that I noticed your odd phrasing more because it was directed at me, which I think is human nature, really, so I'm not going to say that it absolutely is not. But in any case, it's true, and it is suspicious, and that, with the other evidence presented, is why it's earned you my vote.

[Bookitty]

Okay. A caveat on this analysis. I HATE JDodge's playstyle. I understand some people think it's advantageous to play unhelpfully and scummily as town, in order to confuse people on their other games, or some other reason that escapes me. But that's a strategy that hurts town. When scum do it, it's intentionally hurting town, and when town does it, it's just plain stupid and unhelpful. I don't metagame people, because I think it's pointless. I have yet to see a situation where metagaming someone actually helped the town. Good, smart players adjust their play to avoid metagame tells, and bad players can be caught fairly easily by mistakes they make within the thread under discussion. So saying "he always plays like this" does not excuse anything in my eyes. I find the playstyle so unhelpful that I fear I can't be objective in analysing it, and thus, the caveat.

All of that said, JDodge has been profoundly unhelpful, and presents a WIFOM situation. Either he is town, playing unhelpfully to confuse scum, or he is scum, hiding behind a "playstyle" choice in an effort to avoid giving information to town. WIFOM: No townie would behave so scummily, but no scum would behave so obviously.

There is a third option, and there's some supporting evidence for this: He's not paying any attention to this game really. He places a vote on Setael and then comes out with this:

Shit, I confused this game with a different one.

MY MISTAKE

Unvote

And if he's not willing to pay attention, or post any content, then really what good is he to town anyway?

Unhelpful, scummy town is nearly as bad as scum. I don't know which JDodge is, but he's definitely one of the two.

[Bookitty]

Bookitty, you're wrong about the contradictions. Simply put, it makes no sense to make assumptions based on assumptions. Guardian believes you are scum, but is unwilling to make assumptions on the alignments of other players until he has his beliefs confirmed or refuted. If he reads all the other players assuming you are scum and then you turn up town, it's a whole lot of wasted effort. In this sense, him waiting to see if he's right or worng about you is not scummy, and there are no contradictions.

It's certainly possible that I am overreacting. I do think there are sharp and unexplained contrasts in his statements.

You say "Guardian believes you are scum". This may or may not be true, but shouldn't be presented as fact. You are assuming Guardian is town. If he were scum, which I think you must concede is a possibility, then he definitely does NOT believe I am scum. And that is why I pointed out the consistency of the "out" in his argument. He expresses extreme certainty, which to me is a nulltell either way, but then he leaves room for doubt... why? If he is certain enough to kill me himself, then why is he leaving himself wiggle room?

And I don't think rereading the thread with varying assumptions is ever a waste of time, if you're actively looking for scum. I found the FOS and the twisting of Setael's words to be highly suspect, and I intend to go back and investigate the vote swing myself, even though I know my alignment for sure, just to see if there's anything of value there worth sharing.

[Bookitty]

Heh. It wasn't an extreme reaction, at least not by my standards. My reasoning on Jack can be found in the first paragraph of my Post 459. I'm interested though, what's your opinion on the alignment of Jack/White?

I apologise for not having a full answer to this yet. I found the quickhammer suspicious, but I haven't got a firm impression since then. I will post my impressions as soon as I have a chance to examine Jack and White's postings more fully.

This is too limited. When you're voting someone, that does not mean that you are assuming that player is scum. You might even think there's a less than 50% chance that they're scum, but they're still your top suspect. I also think you're suggestions that Guardian is not interested in lynching anyone but you are blatantly not in line with the facts.

I still believe that sustained and intensive pressure on one player, without seeking links between that player and other possible scum, is counterproductive at best and anti-town at worst. I have yet to see Guardian present a case against me or xyzzy. Have you? And yet he's convinced, certain enough to kill, but not certain enough to present his evidence for the rest of the town? I don't buy it.

I think Guardian thinks I'll be an easy lynch, and he's left himself enough wiggle room that he's not definitely implicated himself. But I'm sure there are a number of others he'd be equally happy to lynch.

That said, I can't explain his mneme vote. That's the strongest point in his favour, in my view.

I'm curious, why is this notable because Mert was the nightkill? Does it incriminate schizmatized or help him?

I have a theory that people are nightkilled because of interactions with scum. It's unproven. But I notice such linkages as a result and that's why I mention them.

How does this translate to a point in schiz's favour? Previously you've claimed that mneme's comments about me may be distancing, because he was showing suspicion of me without bringing up any real points. It seems like here he's doing that with schismatized.

It's a valid point. I don't know. I suppose I was assuming that Mneme wouldn't put any scum in his top few suspects... but if he does so without any real evidence... I suppose I can't take that as an indication of innocence on schismatized's part... especially since during that time schismatized completely disappeared and it might have seemed a safe distancing ploy.

You're right. It's a nulltell at best, and distancing at worst.

[Bookitty]

Bookitty, I'd be very interested to hear your thoughts on Rishi. Your arguments have been solid, but just as you replaced in I had made a case on Rishi and the other players had yet to really comment on it and now it seems to be forgotten. I can't help but wonder if you are trying to distract from Rishi.

I don't mean to distract from any ongoing discussions. As a replacement, I'm trying to analyse the game and players, and it's a somewhat lengthy process of playing catch-up.

I intend to analyse Jack/White, as requested, and then I can look at Rishi more closely. In the meantime though, if you have any direct questions, I'll be glad to respond, and I'll look over your case on Rishi now.

[Bookitty]

I should have said, any MORE scum in his list of suspects. I already indicated that I thought he was distancing from you, so it had not occurred to me as a possibility (stupidly, probably) that he would be distancing from more than one person at once.

I'm sorry I was unclear.

[Bookitty]

Okay, as promised, I looked very carefully at the xyzzy bandwagon and its demise. Everyone piles on to the wagon, for no real reason that I can see. Rishi asks why everyone is voting for xyzzy... well, there's no reason, really, at that point. Everyone is trying to get past the random stage (correct me if I'm wrong, but that's what it looks like) and thus jumping on the xyzzy wagon. After the fact, Mert starts justifying the wagon AFTER the fact, with a bunch of really stupid quotes from xyzzy, one where xyzzy doesn't know what WIFOM means, clearly, one where xyzzy is mimicking JDodge to no one's advantage (the comments about Rishi being "the lynch choice today" -- I think xyzzy was trying to mock JDodge's playstyle, and coming off stupid). Then he makes this really stupid remark about starting crapwagons as a playstyle. Sarcasm? Hard to say.

I honestly think that people fell off the xyzzy wagon because they thought it was too quick and because of a misstep by somestrangeflea. Shanba thinks it's too fast, and unvotes while indicating he's still suspicious of xyzzy. somestrangeflea makes a mistake, and Mert first FOS's him, then unvotes. Then somestrangeflea starts making a series of missteps, and I don't think you can regard these as anyone else's fault, any more than you can blame xyzzy behaving like an idiot on anyone else either.

I'm not seeing any real connections. My guess is that there were scum on the wagons for both xyzzy and somestrangeflea, but... mathematically that's almost certain. Mneme does pull his vote from xyzzy to somestrangeflea. I don't know why, unless quicklynching xyzzy would ... I don't see how it would draw suspicion, even, to anyone specifically, so I have no clue why Mneme did that.

Okay, that analysis is concluded, and I don't feel I've learned anything, but I did think this was fairly interesting, right after dylan votes xyzzy in the midst of the somestrangeflea bandwagon...

@dylan41985: why did you vote xyzzy out of nowhere? that post just perplexed me. there was no previous talk about him for a few posts so where did that come from?

Just an interesting reversal from Setael's and Guardian's current positions.

[Bookitty]

Okay. Setael's case against Rishi, and my own take on it.

Rishi voted for SSF without compelling reasons:

I don't buy into this one. Both xyzzy and somestrangeflea had significant bandwagons, and not everyone on them could have been scum. Rishi points out that somestrangeflea is "seriously looking for a quicklynch, which really hurts the town" and which is a valid reason to vote someone.

I don't like the discrepancy between the reaction to somestrangeflea and the reaction to Ms. Piggy, either. This looks oddly forced.

Rishi attacks and then drops the argument at the slightest response:

This is probably your best point. It does look like classic distancing with Patrick and Guardian. I'd especially like an explanation of this comment to Guardian:

Actually, this is the response that I was hoping that you would give. You've dropped off my radar for now.

Why were you hoping for a specific response? Why would you have any investment in Guardian being town, or at least perceived that way? This seems very wrong.

Rishi was distancing from Mneme:

Could be. I have no read on Mneme's gameplay. It's all over the place, and I can't see any way Mneme could have been deliberately distancing from all the people he appears to be distancing from. However, Rishi's pattern of attacking and dropping the attack across three different people seems... a bit more like playstyle, when it's repeated this often. It's possible it's just the way he plays.

Rishi switched his vote to xyzzy for no reason:

No, I got the impression Rishi switched his vote to xyzzy for lurking. (I could be wrong, but that's what I took from his postings.) Which is fair enough. I don't understand the loyalty to JDodge, who's being deliberately unhelpful AND lurking, but I don't like lurkers either.

I did a read of Rishi in isolation, too. I think Rishi tries hard to get along with everyone, which is usually a scumtell, but not always. Claiming to have no suspicions is a scumtell. Refusing to go along with overreaction to Shanba's "lie" is pro-town. Pushing for lurkers to be prodded is pro-town. Lurking and saying you're lurking because you have nothing to say is at best a nulltell and at worst anti-town.

I'm just not feeling this case at the moment. I would like an answer about why Rishi "was hoping" that Guardian would respond a certain way, but I'm not hopping on this wagon without better evidence than this.

[Bookitty]

Just to note, I haven't forgotten that I promised to look at Jack/White. I'm not avoiding it, it's just taking me a little longer due to some other commitments (and I think I've put up enough content for people to pick apart and logically demolish, in the meantime) and I will get to it soon.

[Bookitty]

Okay, as promised. My thoughts on MsPiggy/Jack/White.

I really don't like Ms Piggy's eagerness to put the hammer on someone, anyone. But that pales in comparison with her disappearance after having put the hammer on somestrangeflea. That looks really suspicious to me.

Jack isn't here for long, but he does something very interesting. In post 193, he votes mneme for "lurking while trying to make it appear otherwise." Thin_Man shows up and votes mneme too, and Jack then unvotes and votes Thin_Man, with this comment "*wonders if that was a poorly concealed attempt to save dylan*". Then there is a short exchange between Thin_Man and Jack, and they both happily vote mneme. Mneme retaliates, sort of, with a vote for Thin_Man, and Jack responds with "wtf?" because mneme didn't really justify his vote (though Jack seemed fine with Thin_Man's lack of justification for his vote).

Mneme completely breaks down under pressure, expressing suspicions of just about everyone for no real reason, and Jack goes on the attack. Drums up a bandwagon on mneme. "I hate slow games. Can we get some more votes on mneme please?" Continues with "Let's just lynch mneme." Then asks for replacement before mneme is actually lynched.

(I see a few possibilities here. One, Jack is bussing his partner in order to look more innocent later in the game, especially since he was stuck with explaining the actions of Ms Piggy and her arguably scummy hammer. Or two, he's town, and he and Thin_Man share that kind of relationship where a look, a word, is all they need to understand each other. Or three, he's town, and he deduced that mneme was scum just a little sooner than the rest of the town... or four, he's scum who voted for mneme to distance, and then mneme reacted badly to pressure and he had no choice but to follow through.) I lean toward the third explanation, but the fourth one seems very possible to me too. At this point, though, I'm willing to give Jack the benefit of the doubt.

White replaces. Votes xyzzy (me, now) without giving reasons. Later claims confusion, asks for time to reread. Tries to explain his predecessor's actions. White gets into a little exchange with JDodge, where White asks for explanations, and JDodge refuses to give any, because... I already said what I think of JDodge's playstyle. I will not get sidetracked. I will not get sidetracked. (bangs head against wall)

Claims that this game is difficult to understand. Asks the mod about a replacement for xyzzy, and after that, a series of very short posts, with not much usable content.

So, Ms Piggy looks scummy to me. Jack looks town, but not enough to counterbalance Ms Piggy. And White? I see a number of posts, but they are all neutral enough that I don't feel I've derived any useful information from them.

Additionally, posting mostly short, nonconfrontational messages is a pretty big scumtell to me. It's not giving town any useful information, but still presenting the appearance of being active. I could be wrong, but I would call it lurking in plain sight, and I think it's a pretty clever tactic for scum. So I'm putting White on the suspicious side of my list, until I see more actual content and analysis from him.

[Bookitty]

Again, Guardian, care to make a case other than "Bookitty right now is playing exactly how I used to try and play as scum"? Because you've never made a case on xyzzy, who played pretty much the opposite of the way I play, either. Now, because I play differently than he did, you're claiming that it's obvious I must be scum, because I'm playing the way you would if you were scum. That doesn't follow. It's the sort of "gut feeling" nonsense that scum use to justify their non-cases on people.

You asked for my analysis on people. Apparently responding to that request is scummy, somehow, in your eyes. I had a lot to catch up with, given my predecessor's lack of content, so I've posted a lot. So, lurking is a tell, and not lurking is a tell, providing little content for town is a tell, and providing detailed analysis is a tell... at least as long as it involves lynching me, right?

It's been a while since the last vote count, so I can't say for certain, but I think mine is the only vote on you. It's surely not enough to produce the kind of OMGUS tunnel vision that you're exhibiting, and that seems pretty forced to me.

[Bookitty]

Setael starts methodically, analysing her predecessor's play and pointing out mistakes on his part. This seems very pro-town. I don't personally find it useful to analyse my predecessors, because I know my alignment and how they chose to play it doesn't usually have much bearing on me, but I appreciate analysis and generally find it pro-town.

Setael seems very undecided about xyzzy (now me), questioning both those joining the bandwagon on xyzzy, and why they would leave it. One of the worst contradictions in Setael's posts is this, I think:

I think there's a good chance at least one mafia was influential in pulling the vote off xyzzx, and

then in spite of all these reasons they cited for thinking xyzzx was scum

, never taking the discussion back to him.

and later:

In the meantime, could everyone voting xyzzy, or who thinks xyzzy is scum please give your reasons why? A reread of him does absolutely no good. If the only reason you find him suspicious is his lurkishness, please say so, and if you have other reasons, please share them with the class.

You can't really have it both ways. Either there were "all these reasons they cited", or there weren't.

Overreacts to Shanba's "lie", in my view, but this may have been a gambit to get information, since her next post says "Shanba's explanation of the lie sounded pretty Town to me." Could be distancing, could be legitimate information gathering.

I favoured Setael's logic over Guardian's in their exchange. I did feel Guardian was taking things out of context and twisting them, and I think he knew that he was, since he reacted so badly when I did it to him in pretty much exactly the same way. So it seems to me he was using deliberate craplogic in attacking her posts, and not accidental craplogic.

I really find this sentence suspicious on Setael's part: "I was assuming everyone agreed with my suspicions of Schiz which would give you more motivation to do something which would get rid of them." This wouldn't look so bad, except for this one not long before it, directed at Guardian: "It is always wise of scum to gauge the Town's reaction to a case before pushing it too hard." Either one by themselves is suspicious. Both together are really scummy, in my view at least.

I reserve the right to go back and do a more complete reread and add to this, but hopefully this will help. I don't see Setael and Rishi as scumpartners. I could possibly, after Guardian's turnaround, see Setael and Guardian as scumpartners playing very well and distancing very convincingly. His attacks on her were not very convincing and relied on taking things out of context, something he recognised as unfair immediately when it was done to him, and thus, in my view, knew was unfair when he was doing it.

As always, if you see flaws in my logic, point them out.

[Bookitty]

Bookitty, you're wrong, and I don't care to respond. But keep rambling, I'm sure it makes you feel good.

Since it wasn't addressed to you, and was in direct response to a question from someone else, I wasn't looking for you to respond, Guardian. But keep thinking everything is all about you, I'm sure it makes you feel good.

[Bookitty]

I'm still in the process of a reread. Setael's turning out to be scum ironically clears Guardian in my opinion, which is annoying, because I really disliked his postings. But I don't believe their interactions were distancing. It was too sustained, and generally it's my opinion that when scum attack/bus other scum, they do so with fairly vague arguments. Not the case here, so I don't see Guardian and Setael as scumbuddies. Nor Shanba and Setael, for similar reasons.

I'd really like Guardian to post an actual case on me, as opposed to metagaming himself and then applying that to me. I'd be interested in hearing his logic.

Okay, back to rereading.

[Bookitty]

Satael, your reasoning for voting mneme isn't actually bad. I still think it could have made a convenient bus for you.

I just found that quote interesting, and wanted to point it out, since it turned out to be precisely true.

[Bookitty]

I'm going to tentatively say that I don't think JDodge is scum. His interactions with Mneme were inconclusive (as is most everything about Mneme, I think) but he put the second vote on Setael and seemed certain of her guilt after Patrick placed the first one. I don't see scum doing that to a partner at that stage, though as always I could be wrong.

Rishi has been oddly conciliatory, and White has been persistently absent. As I said, in my eyes, Guardian and Shanba are cleared, based on their interactions with Setael. Patrick's comment about Setael's "bussing" of Mneme seems an unlikely thing for the third scum to say about the second, when it turns out to be true. So in my eyes Patrick is nearly cleared as well.

We're in good shape, and that's true even if I'm lynched. I don't wish to be lynched, but if that happens, we still have either a cop or a roleblocker (as I understand the setup). Even with a mislynch I think we're in really good shape, so I'm not too worried about trying to defend myself at the moment.

Regardless, I think town should look hard at Rishi and White. I have already posted my suspicions of White, but my suspicions of Rishi are more general and based on a certain general "trying to get along with everyone" style of posting that I believe to be a more basic scumtell. (If requested, I can provide examples of this. I am assuming everyone remembers though.)

unvote; vote Rishi

[Bookitty]

I'm guessing the final role is a roleblocker, based on the available options (I could be wrong). If that is the case, then I would prefer the person not claim.

If the final role is a cop with an innocent on someone, it's better not to claim, I think. Only if you are a cop with a guilty on someone should you claim, because (at least as far as I can see) that wins the game for us right there.

Just my opinion, though.

[Bookitty]

You're correct, Patrick. Shanba unvoted Setael after JDodge voted her, so I missed the fact that there were already two votes on Setael when JDodge voted her the second time. (The first time he made the comments about OMGUS and then said he was confusing two games, or something -- I didn't really count that as an actual vote.)

I do not mean to imply that anyone is cleared or confirmed town. I'm commenting strictly on my views.

I thought Setael was town, and I thought Guardian was scum. I know I was wrong about Setael, and I believe I was wrong about Guardian, due to his interactions with Setael. I could be wrong on that, but I do not think that I am. I've looked at that last little interaction between Setael and Guardian, and it's possible that's distancing, but it just doesn't seem that way to me.

Lastly, I don't think we have a cop in this game. I don't think scum would have given us that, as it would be far too helpful to us. So it's my view we have a roleblocker, and that person should NOT claim, despite Rishi thinking it would be helpful to have a confirmed townie. I don't feel that way, and I think it's very suspicious that he does.

As I said, I think we're in excellent shape and can afford a mislynch, so I'm not really interested in spending time defending myself. I'd like Rishi to explain exactly why he thinks that rolefishing is helpful to town, though, especially with only one scum left.

[Bookitty]

I'd like Rishi to explain exactly why he thinks that rolefishing is helpful to town, though, especially with only one scum left.

You might have missed that, Rishi. Why do you think it's helpful to town to know exactly who the powerroles are, at this point?

[Bookitty]

Ack.

Okay, to PREVENT a mistake...

unvote

I would much prefer some discussion before we lynch anyone. Just because we have a little breathing room is no reason to act hastily.

[Bookitty]

Sikario8:

My best guess is that there is only one scum remaining. I have only a couple of suspects for that. You are one of those suspects.

What I'd personally like from you is that you reread the game and look especially at the people who came before you in that role (Ms Piggy, Jack, and White). Since you know your alignment, it would be helpful if you could try to put yourself in their places, and tell us what you think of their actions, for good or bad.

Words that no one, least of all me, thought I would ever say: I agree with Guardian. We need some input from JDodge before lynching anyone. Lynching Rishi is far from a foregone conclusion in my opinion. We can afford a mistake, but we shouldn't rush and make one more likely.

@Guardian: I did a reread of Mneme both in isolation and in context and I have no clue what he was doing. If you can see a pattern, knowing what we know now, I'd be really interested to hear it. I do note that both Mneme and Setael based a lot of their arguments around xyzzy (now me). I think they were trying to frame him. I don't have a better explanation than that, but that's my best guess.

[Bookitty]

I'm sorry to be slow in responding.

I'm thinking the best thing to do in response, Guardian, is to do an analysis of players remaining and look at their interactions with Mneme. I've posted an analysis previously about Mneme, in post 457, which is Mneme's interactions with others. But I wasn't reading him with an eye to how other people were treating him, or, at least I don't remember doing so.

I'm a bit busy at the moment but I will work on this today and hopefully I'll have something more substantive by this evening.

[Bookitty]

All right, in order from least suspicious to most suspicious in my current opinion (with the caveat that this order was determined before starting the reread):

Shanba: Agrees with Jack's assessment of dylan (Setael, now known to be scum): "I completely agree with his assessment of dylan (not so much with his assessment of mneme, or Patrick, or, well, me). The whole incident where he asks whether he should vote somestrangeflea or not seems so scummy. " Follows this with a vote on dylan.

Puts an FOS on Mneme fairly early, picking up on a scumtell quoted in a post by Jack. (As an aside, I don't think Jack would have posted something like that if he'd been scum with Mneme.) Later says this to Setael: " I'm happy you're adding more content than your predecessor, but I still prefer a you lynch to an anyone else lynch, with the perhaps exception of mneme." I definitely don't see scum attacking both its partners at once in this fashion.

Later on, some vacillation on Setael, attacking her fairly hard and voting her, then unvoting with this: "I like the way Setael has responded under pressure - I'm less sure of him as scum now than I was before his analyses. I have done similar things as town under threat of lynching - getting all your thoughts down can only help the town. Unvote. I quite like your case against Rishi, who was not on my radar at all, and would like to hear his response." Later, argues with me a bit about Guardian, argues with Guardian about his FOS of Setael. Then moves back to voting Setael: "I'm ready for a lynch, and I'd prefer it to be her."

Finally, in response to Rishi's statement that if Setael comes up town, he'll be looking hard at Shanba, this quote: "1-2 mislynch much?" I just don't see scum saying that. If Shanba knew Setael was scum, that comment wouldn't occur to him, I think. And scum would know Setael was scum.

Nothing here has changed my mind on Shanba. I still think he's town.

As always, if you see errors or omissions in this, please correct it.

[Bookitty]

Okay, next, Guardian. (P'feh! I was so sure he was scum.)

First, puts a vote on Mneme, and FOS's xyzzy(me, now) for going "with the easy case on dylan" (which did in fact turn out to be the correct case, since dylan/Setael were scum).

A couple of comments to Mneme, who's under pressure: "mneme, convince me to vote someone else. xyzzy would be the easiest at this point, he is definitely my second choice to mneme. Is xyzzy around?" and "mneme, you very well could be town, but you easily could be scum and you've done nothing to convince me otherwise -- and its not like I have extremely high standards." These are pretty suspicious, considering that Mneme was scum.

But then, seems satisfied that mneme is scum, and his interactions with Setael don't seem like distancing to me. He pushes her lynch too hard. He persists even when she's on the edge of being lynched, and he pulls the trigger on hammering her. While he does cling to the xyzzy wagon, and then tries to push a wagon on me, fairly intensely (and without making a case that I ever saw, apart from metagaming himself), he does abandon that when he sees scumminess from Setael.

I simply don't see scum arguing with its partner and bussing her in this way. I could be wrong about this. But I'm still leaning toward Guardian as town, right now. Not with as much certainty as before this last reread, but still I think he's town.

[Bookitty]

Patrick (really tied with Guardian for towniness to me):

Puts a vote on Dylan early with this comment:

Dylan's post number 5 looks scummy and insincere especially when I look at his/her next post about 40 minutes later.

Jack is suspicious of people on the Dylan wagon, and Patrick responds:

I read dylans posts in newbie 387 where he was town and got lynched day 1. The majority of those posts were a close variation of, "I'm a townie, don't lynch me!!". The amount of content he posted in that game is similar to this one, so that doesn't mean much for his alignment, but he seems more self conscious in this game, in posts 5-6.

I certainly don't think it's clearcut at all, and if dylan comes close to being lynched, I'll unvote, heck I might change my vote anyway soon. About half the players were able to cruise through day 1 without doing anything at all, and xyzzy was one of them. Today all he's done is voted dylan without any kind of analysis or content at all. So yes, we're certainly not going through today with only a focus on one person.

Not a lot of pressure on Dylan, but more focus than I'd think he'd have if Dylan were his scumbuddy.

Votes mneme, then unvotes, requesting a claim. Mneme is lynched before Patrick posts again:

Initial reaction is that the two last votes on mneme are possible buses, and that Jack/White is likely town.

(Note: the last two votes on mneme were Setael and JDodge.)

and later this:

Satael looks like a good possibility to me. I don't think she ever gave an opinion on mneme until her last post where she appeared on the mneme wagon, and it just looked like she wanted to quickly make sure she was on the mneme lynch that was obviously going to happen at that stage. (And I don't think her vote was required as extra incentive for mneme to claim). Looking back at mneme's posts, he seems to have alot of wishy washy stances on dylan, in that he left plenty of openings to vote him later but always went after other players first (Thin Man, Rishi, Shanba and me is what I remember). Plus I was never wild about dylan's play to begin with. Shanba also brings up a reasonable point in his last post about mneme seeming to show a double standard between Shanba being self conscious and dylan being self conscious.

JDodge's hammer of mneme shares a characteristic with Satael's vote on mneme, the fact that he never expressed any previous opinion of mneme but was willing to vote him. JDodge hasn't done much in this game either, but I think I'm more suspicious of Satael at the moment.

and:

Satael, your reasoning for voting mneme isn't actually bad. I still think it could have made a convenient bus for you.

and:

Mneme's stance on dylan is usually kind of expressing suspicion on dylan, whilst going after or voting other people. If dylan was going to be lynched, mneme had left himself openings to be on that lynchwagon. Although, on reading his posts, he left quite alot of options open in all directions anyway.

I think Patrick is town, because I think that no scum would ever bus their partner in such a truthful and accurate manner.

[Bookitty]

Okay, before I start this. I hate JDodge's playstyle, and find it unhelpful and anti-town. That said, I was thinking something that was likely not true when I was analysing him and trying to determine his innocence or guilt. I was assuming, because of his unexplained votes, that he was the cop.

But I don't really think they would have given us a cop in this setup. So I don't know why I had this in my head. I think it was the only explanation I could think of for his unexplained voting pattern.

This analysis should be shorter, anyway.

JDodge lurks, announces, "I am lurking. Discuss."

Puts the hammer on Mneme, when it was likely a foregone conclusion that Mneme would be lynched.

Puts a vote on Setael, claims it was a mistake ("Shit, I confused this game with a different one.") and unvotes. Puts a third vote on Setael (when it's five to lynch) after Patrick and Shanba already voted her, saying "diescumdie" (this is what made me think he was the cop, mostly).

I dunno. I think he just moved into one of the top two spots for me, considering that I don't think we have a cop. I am aware he has an anti-town and unhelpful playstyle, but that doesn't mean he isn't scum.

[Bookitty]

Analysis of Jack/White/Sikario. This one is more difficult, due to the number of replacements.

Jack's first act is to vote for dylan, and FOS: Patrick, Shanba, Mneme. This might be distancing, and indeed he unvotes fairly quickly, stating that he'd read over some of dylan's other games. But then he votes for mneme, then votes thin man: "*wonders if that was a poorly concealed attempt to save dylan*" -- which seems an awful lot of linking if Jack were actually their scum partner. Votes mneme again, has some reasoned argument with him, and pushes the wagon: "mneme sounds like scum trying to pretend to have genuine suspicions and failing"; "I hate slow games. Can we get some more votes on mneme please?"; and "Let's just lynch mneme." During most of this Jack and Thin Man were the only two votes on Mneme, so if this was bussing, it was determined and persistent bussing.

White replaces in, and votes xyzzy (me, now) as his first act. Doesn't post much of substance other than sniping at xyzzy for lurking (justified sniping, in my view), and then claims confusion: "Wow guys, I am so lost and confused in this game. I honestly can't keep up. I'm sorry, i'm going to have to reread. The quantity of replacements makes this much harder to keep up with." Then yells at the lurkers, JDodge and xyzzy (this seems completely justified to me), and gets involved in a skirmish with JDodge.

Agrees with Guardian's logic at first regarding Setael, but then says "I like stirring the pot, it's making me feel better about Seta, not afraid to make waves which is protown in my book."

And his last post, "Wow guys, tons to read. I've just been swamped recently and i'm trying to catch up in all my games. I want to reread the Guardian-Seta thing but I can't right now." Votes Rishi, claims my recent behaviour is a nulltell.

I'm not going to analyse Sikario because I think he's honestly still learning the game and I don't think it would be that revealing at this point. But ... if I were judging based on Jack's behaviour, I'd call it very pro-town. White seemed either honestly confused and lost, or completely scummy.

Still, Jack's behaviour with mneme and dylan is either extremely believable distancing, or legitimate scumhunting. White's behaviour probably should be given the benefit of the doubt, so I'm going to say that right now, and by a narrow margin, I'm thinking Sikario is probably town.

[Bookitty]

Rishi, the person my vote is on, and the last piece of analysis I promised I'd do.

Starts with a random vote on dylan. Unvotes to vote somestrangeflea, who is lynched. Rishi does not vote for mneme. Makes this rather odd comment, "Anyway, I don't have any major suspicions at this point. I figure someone will slip up sooner or later."

Comments on Setael: "Setael is someone I am keeping an eye on. I definitely think her arguments seem weak at points, but I'm not sure if they're just weak arguments or actually scummy arguments." Pretty weak distancing, in my opinion.

Votes xyzzy, and little of content for a while. Then, waiting for xyzzy's replacement: "I do not like the way Setael has been acting lately. She has been stirring the pot, but I'm not sure what she's trying to accomplish. Besides, I'm waiting to hear what she thinks of me before I say what I think of her. (That's a semi-joke.)"

And this regarding xyzzy, which seems odd to me, like Rishi is justifying not voting for Setael (who had two votes and at one point not long before had had three votes): "Well, I probably would continue to vote him when replaced, but the point that I was emphasizing is that I will definitely not unvote or switch my vote at any point before that. After the replacement shows up (or xyzzy himself), it would depend on what they say."

And recently: (Looking for roleclaims) "But narrowing down the list of candidates with so few players is more helpful than you think." contrasts oddly with "I think it's fairly lazy to lynch JDodge just so that you can satisfy your own curiosity about whether he is town or scum."

I think I'm keeping my vote where it is. I see the case on JDodge for certain, but at least he did place votes on scum, and Rishi seemed to be finding excuses not to do so.

[Bookitty]

Yes, and I thought I'd included that in my post, but apparently I missed it. And it is a point in your favour, and deserves to be mentioned, so thank you for pointing it out.

Rishi did vote for Setael, stating:

"dylan41985/Setael -- On a re-read, I don't really see the suspicion that arose on dylan. He really didn't do much of anything in this game. Setael, however, has more than made up for that. She got on the mneme bandwagon late, perhaps to distance herself. She has been posting a lot of accusations. First, she accused Shanba, then backed off. Then Patrick, and backed off. Then she got into an argument with Guardian, and backed off. Now me. And, with her last post, she cast some minor suspicion on Bookitty. She hides her weak arguments behind a lot of words and quotes. This is not an OMGUS vote (it would have come sooner after her vote for me if it were), but I just think she's jumping around too much."

And while I think of it, Rishi, why, if JDodge is scum, would he be dangerous? I didn't really get that.

[Bookitty]

Okay, I looked at Rishi's claim that

as both mneme and Setael were trying to get me lynched, that it was a little too much for distancing.

Mneme did say "Most suspicous: Rishi, Thin_Man, Patrick." And to Jack: "I'm pretty convinced Rishi's scum, actually, and your (lacksidasical) defense of her is noted. I picked you over Rishi because your attack on me is also fairly scummy in form -- coming into the game and following while not really giving anything resembling reasoning, whereas Rishi mostly just hasn't been here." Under pressure, does land a lonely vote on Rishi, but removes it fairly quickly to vote for Shanba.

So mneme wasn't really trying to get Rishi lynched, so far as I can see.

However, Setael definitely was pushing a lynch against Rishi. Nearly all her posts were dealing either with that, or arguing with Guardian.

So Rishi does have a point about Setael. Not mneme, though.

Rishi, are you still convinced that JDodge is not scum? This comment:

I think, if he's scum, there's a good chance of a mistake in the endgame.

seems like a change of heart from this one:

So, I agree that JDodge could be more helpful, but I also don't think he is scum and shouldn't be lynched just because we don't like the way he plays.

Have you changed your mind? If so, why?

[Bookitty]

I believe Shanba, and I don't believe JDodge.

Here's why.

OMGUS

Setael needs to die

Vote: Setael

and then this:

Interesting. I don't see how my vote is OMGUS since Guardian has never attacked me, voted me, or even accused me.

How about instead of just saying I need to die and voting me, you tell me why my argument is in any way faulty or doesn't make sense. Because... it's a decent case imo - much better than the non-existent case you have on me.

Shit, I confused this game with a different one.

MY MISTAKE

Unvote

A vote for Shanba, and then this:

unvote, vote: Setael

diescumdie

Why would a roleblocker announce his results so quickly and call attention to himself, then unvote, retracting his suspicion, and then vote the person again?

Looks more like distancing and bussing to me.

unvote; vote JDodge

[Bookitty]

I have it as a third vote and not a hammer, Patrick.
If you're wrong, so am I. Sikario is not voting him, nor Rishi, nor you, nor JDodge himself.

Still time to discuss, I think.

[Bookitty]

Out of curiosity, what is the advantage for town to falseclaim?

I'm just not getting how JDodge fakeclaiming roleblocker is advantageous to town in any way. And I'm very sure it is a fakeclaim. (The advantage to scum would be if we believed it, I guess, since he was likely to be lynched otherwise.)

Am I missing something obvious?

[Bookitty]

I've said my piece. I'm good with you hammering.

[Bookitty]

Are you suggesting we negotiate with terrorists, Rishi? Shall we be intimidated by threats of explosion?

I do have a serious question... can the scum forego their NK, or is it forced?

And my personal feeling is that Guardian is more likely scum than Patrick. For what it's worth. But neither is my top suspect, if JDodge turned up town.

[Bookitty]

Thank you for not lynching xyzzy.
Otherwise I would have missed this game, and it was REALLY fun.

[Bookitty]

Thanks for the title nomination.

By way of explanation, I replaced into a lot of games, and seemed to be constantly trying to do damage control. As a result, I was doing a lot of analysis, in hopes of provoking argument and catching up with the games, and thus the overuse of "As always, I could be wrong." I hadn't thought of it as a catchphrase, but I suspect it fits.

No hard feelings, Guardian. I'm just pleased we won.

[Bookitty]

Oh, I kind of like replacing into bad situations, personally. It's challenging, and if I fail, I have a ready-made excuse.

It's perfect, really.

[Bookitty]

Really fun game. Setael had me utterly fooled. I don't think I'd ever have voted for her, so I'm glad others were smarter than I was there.

Thanks for letting me replace in.