Mini 1787: Peruvian Nightclub Mafia (Game End!)

[TheOtherFiction]

Hi post, brb later with something resembling views/opinions.

[TheOtherFiction]

jake, not who, why

I checked robert because his claim was weird,

erm but you kinda were buying it seen here:

I do understand why robert would out his role there - why are people starting to vote robert here? I personally believe he's town and that h_a is possible mafia regardless of what robert is

am i gonna keep reading and see you change that into a scum read on robert or you wanna be straight up with me?

Sick town post.

That was an obvious joke as I led the lynch, you're really going to grasp at everything

Tyler I said it changed after h_a flipped, I was sort of feeling all 3 could be town beforehand

You said "regardless." Which means, you didn't believe there was a connection between h_a and my slot. Plus, bodyguard died n1, heavily giving credit to the likely town cred of my slot, making your "innocent" read on my role very suspect.

i'll vote dunnstral as soon as someone convinces me that his play today is scum motivated

all have yet to do this

just woop, must be a godfather

What?

The difference is that you didn't decide to fakeclaim at that game.

Obviously I'm not going to fake claim every game. Also I was cop so.....

Digging around in my last game isn't going to help you, saying "I didn't fake claim that other game" is true but doesn't have bearing on this game in the first place

Also you're ignoring discussion on the game at hand

As I can see, most of the discussion involves me being scum, which is totally wrong.

5 star defense

[TheOtherFiction]

Jaack looks to be setting up lynches day 1 and then gunning for Robert the next day. It seems like scum would need to try to remove the macho effect sooner as the BG death semi-confirms that I'm town, as a townie is less likely to just claim this modifier on Day 1 and then get "lucky" that BG dies soon. So, continuing to push on robert day 2 seems just wrong for scum and townie. However, he preempted his argument to lynch Robert day 1 by trying to suggest lynching Robert, then based on his flip, setting up lynches.

I mean, you make some salient points. But there are a couple of points not quite making it all the way through my head:

Scenario 2 is just about as unlikely due to Robert's claim. His claim doesn't make much sense if he's the only scum: he was trying to stop a lynch on one of two prs in that scenario.

Wouldn't it only make sense for Robert to have been trying to stop HA's lynch, given the fact that Robert didn't claim until

after

ira counterclaimed? Put another way, ira was not in danger -- so how could scumRobert's claim have been a means of getting scumIra out of the noose?

And if it is the case that Robert-ira doesn't make sense as a scum team, then doesn't that change your possible arrangements to {all three are town} or {Robert and HA are scum together; ira is town}?

The Robert/ira scum team is definitely the least likely, which is why we should lynch HA first if robert flips scum. But if we assume that that is reality for a moment, then the second that HA flipped town (which he is in this scenario) ira would be basically confirmed scum. Robert would be preemptively protecting his scumbuddy I guess. It doesn't make that much sense but its probably the 3rd most likely case.

Ira or h_a being scum alone is maybe possible, but it wouldn't really make sense with Robert's role. Macho townie is a really strange role unless there are multiple protective options.

I don't believe I've ever played with a macho role and I don't really understand why it would make more sense to have a macho role with two protective town PRs than with one protective town PR.

Well macho town with no night role is almost 100% pointless. Macho is primarily used to balance a powerful role in a game with a doctor (e.g. a Cop+Doc is really powerful, while a Macho Cop+Doc is reasonable). There isn't really any reason for a Macho VT to exist in general. In order for such a role to come into play, both a doc and a nk would have to target what is essentially a VT. In order for that role to make any amount of sense, there would have to be multiple protects. Even then, it still seems weird, particularly if Robert is the only Macho townie.

Doc+BG is weird. Macho VT is weird. Doc+BG+Macho VT is weird, but there is a bit of logic there.

He wants to lynch h_a IF robert flips scum (which he won't, can confirm, i'm that guy). SO, that would essentially derail the wagon again h_a for at least day 1, and gives him a starting point to defend h_a. If not, he lines up lynches with the increased chance that h_a is scum here:

Like if I were to put totally made up odds on it

64% - Robert and HA are scum, Ira is town
30% - All Town
5% - Robert and ira scum, HA town
1% - Something stupid

I dislike his gunning for Robert. His actions seem like scum trying to make the best out of h_a getting caught up. Try to stave his execution wtih condition if Robert is scum (when he's town <--I'm this role/people can pretty much confirm). Okay, H_A is getting lynched, let's push Robert as scum buddy. Can't get Robert dead, consider using statistics and outguess the mod by pointing out the EXTREME infrequency of Macho townie even though the N1 death was the bodyguard. It's possible Robert got lucky, but it was incredibly unlikely prediction since the setup is closed (I didn't see a list of possible roles or w/e).

This just strikes me as scum motivated play.

Then, he abandons Robert because Jake was mad at him, and kept Robert in the "mixed feeling" category until Oops, confirmed town.

Side note:

He also seems to only want to lynch Robert but is "okay" lynching a few other people without much convincing.


He softens so much in late posts that I'm not sure if scum or just a really tunneled townie.


I dislike this post, posting anyway. Blame my headache.

[TheOtherFiction]

Where did you start reading from?

Mostly reading ISOs on people who struck me funny day 1.

Your posts, by the way, are ass to read.

[TheOtherFiction]

FBWOP: Also, I read day 3. Of course, I missed things skimming, like I had more about the wtf of your copclaim, and that was resolved, so erased it.

Mostly, I skipped day 2 except in ISOs or when quoted.

[TheOtherFiction]

The nothing happening is just so sexy. Make it stop.

[TheOtherFiction]

Umm you left Dunn off your list. He's confirmed scum so it can be one scum in xy/Tyler & one in creature/jaack. Did you mean or?

I assume you're being cheeky, but to be clear here Dunn is in my pool of town clears. I don't see him doing what he did as a godfather.

Jaack is like third on my list of lynch priorities today, I'd rather do Creature or xyzzy. I'm thinking there is something to glean here from the fact that wagons have shifted between Creature, Jaack and xyzzy ever since Dunn's retraction, but I'm not quite sure what it is yet other than that I lean townTyler as a result.

Clear is a mighty strong word.

[TheOtherFiction]

dunn has shown that good play is not his forte.

Meanwhile jake

He caught scum day 1 and is really fucking pissed off people keep ignoring him.

Like maybe I can wrap my head around the idea that you just wanted me to claim my results so you claimed cop so I would cc you (which is the stupidest thing I've ever hear of btw)

But the fact that after I claimed you carried on the Schtick and tried to discredit me until somebody says they believe my claim over yours and it looked like you were going to be lynched and than you changed your story.

I've played epic Mafia so I know how people claim so they can force the cop to claim, but on epic Mafia they retract right away. They don't carry on the Schtick and try to discredit the real cop.

People need to get over themselves thinking the GF wouldn't do something like that. That's why it's fucking perfect for the godfather to do something exactly like that. Nobody would suspect him.

Have you people forgotten that scum's job is to manipulate and fool town? This plan makes the most sense coming from scum, ESPECIALLY if he thinks I have an Inno on him. He was banking on me writing him off as a dumb towie. He doesn't know me well enough to know you don't fuck around with Jake from State Farm.

Now lynch this scum as my dying request please. I'm dead tonight so lynch it.

I agree with much of this post. I'd add something, but it's mostly covered. The reason I don't wanna vote dunn is to get more people posting after I jumped in and more reasons on why Jaack wasn't lynched yet. Even if town, his actions seem very scummy.

[TheOtherFiction]

Post: I'll read, brb.

[TheOtherFiction]

Jaack that's really flawed logic because at #2 you say something is probably the case but then at #4 you act as if that thing *must* be the case. I'm really not a fan of that argument at all.

I think you are nitpicking a bit. I agree that if Dunn is town (which he can't possibly be) at least one scum is pushing his lynch. That argument isn't bad at all, but I just don't think Dunn is town.

I'll add on that if Dunn is actually scum there's still a chance one person is pushing him in an attempt to distance.

Also, I disagree that the people on the xyz's wagons makes it good. His scumminess should be what makes it good, but he seems more like he's just not engaged with the game. Could he be town? Absolutely. Scum? Sure. But I don't know if I'd say his recent behavior is particularly indicative other than a "fuck this" attitude. Could just be busy with life or whatever.

Plus, I want jake's question's answered before end of day.

[TheOtherFiction]

Now, TOF, I have done what you asked. Please do what I ask and answer these questions:

1) Have you read the entirety of D3 -- essentially, Dunn's claim, the retraction and the aftermath? If not, I will post a summary for you that will explain why we should not lynch Dunn.
2) Who are your top three picks for today's lynch, in order?
3) Do you agree that if Dunn is town, Jaack and Creature are likely not on the same scumteam (because it's unlikely both scum would try to lynch the easy mislynch like that without having enough town support to make the lynch actually happen)?
4) What do you think of xyzzy?

1. Yes, and I was really gunning for Dunn's lynch in my initial post because of the sheer convenience of his cop claim. (With a BG dead, my role is significantly more likely.) It was safe to "clear" a mostly confirmed town, and it outted the doctor. However, other people's reactions to his gambit covered my feelings, so I erased it. I still really don't like him, and if anything, I want him lynched cause it would provide more information, and since GF isn't blacklisted, it's a pretty safe call that he should be lynched before lylo.

2. I wish I had an order, but I only have a top 2: Dunn Jaack. I outlined why I really dislike Jaack's early game behavior and setting up lynches for day 2 on what turned out to be a scum flip. However, he said that the town should lynch Robert (my role) first, and if scum, then lynch h_a. Since I would flip town, that means h_a would be less scummy as a result of my flip. This is doesn't sit well with me. However, with h_a flipping town, he wrote along piece trying to get Robert lynched day 2 anyway, and that level of tunneling is suspect especially how he gives up on it (showing lack of conviction after a ridiculous level of tunneling) to just go with the lynch for the day. It's very suspect to me. Dunn, on the other hand, provides a lot of information and is too dangerous to keep in the game later.

3. It's day talk, so given the multiple views on the matter. Is it less likely? Sure. But it would have been better not to acknowledge this so that the analysis of how the wagoners might abandon the wagon is more information.

4. In my lasdt post, I said xyz is an issue for me because I don't see his play as scum or town motivated but disengaged player motivated. I think I am leaning very slightly scum, but only because I can better reason his disaffected state as being the result of:
semi-afk partner
h_a got destroyed day 1
He doesn't wanna put in effort to fix it.

Since Town has a scum lynch within first 2 days, the only way a town can be disaffected is if he's (personally) feeling railroaded by scum and no one wants to listen. This is less likely as a person who is town could at least work and say "hey, when I flip town, look at the play of people pushing me" or try to find some sort of pattern on what happened in the past.

But, xyz's last post is KIND OF like that, talking about posts over the past few days so we have something to reference should he be lynched today. Scum could also do this, so reading him is just flat out harder cause its difficult to read anyone who just doesn't give a fuck. :/

[TheOtherFiction]

Also, wtf Creature!? Dunn is likely scum, let me agree with him? Care to explain a bit?

[TheOtherFiction]

1. Yes, and I was really gunning for Dunn's lynch in my initial post because of the sheer convenience of his cop claim. (With a BG dead, my role is significantly more likely.) It was safe to "clear" a mostly confirmed town, and it outted the doctor. However, other people's reactions to his gambit covered my feelings, so I erased it. I still really don't like him, and if anything, I want him lynched cause it would provide more information, and since GF isn't blacklisted, it's a pretty safe call that he should be lynched before lylo.

There's a really weird thought I've been having that I want to toss around re:Dunn's stuff.

Let's assume Dunn was scum. Then he'd have to be GF. His initial reaction was "GF is blacklisted, so I don't even see what you're saying." Initially, this bugged me because I didn't know GF was blacklisted. And thought, maybe Dunn had extra information / had done research and stuff because it was his role. But now I'm thinking, if Dunn was scum, his best argument BEING GF and knowing GF ISN'T blacklisted was "Hey no, GF is blacklisted." Which would a) be a really shitty play in terms of fairness and sportsmanship (trying to deceive based on false rules) and I doubt he would do that but also b) why would his main argument be something that will easily be refuted and something he knows is not true?

I just don't think scumDunn knowing that GF isn't blacklisted (because it is his role) would use that as a defence.

Except it would be in his best interest to play town? Consider he is scum and is GF, and he already knew GF was blacklisted. Upon seeing his PM, he might find out if this was a mistake. As such, it would be reasonable to act what he (dunn) would have done had someone brought up the GF argument: "What? No, GF is blacklisted."

This follows because town dunn would have been surprised, so a scum dunn (trying to act town) should logically say the same.

It's also possible that given the rarity of the role (I have been in one game that used it several years ago and no others), town dunn could also reasonably question "is that role allowed?" see that it is blacklisted, and then say 'yeah, no guys, it's blacklisted."

Both scum and town dunn could do this, and since I don't know his personal skill as a mafia player, I can't say whether or not he'd be clever enough to think about this, but he could have planned this outcome from the start since it was possible he'd need to fake claim and suspected a cop was in the game (as, in this scenario, he's GF. Kinda pointless without a cop.)



A better argument against lynching Dunn is the scum perspective on claiming cop today. One of them is dead, so there are only two. The only reason for dunn to get himself killed outting the cop is if the third member has been erroneously cleared by the town. This would be very difficult to do with, say, my role (the most cleared of non investigated roles, but I don't recall who the other Jake result was) because claiming can't be bodyguard townie is both a poor claim AND scum have little reason to suspect a BG + cop power role in town since the GF would weaken the cop enough to possibly allow a doctor (or paranoid doctor, whatever, I don't balance games).

Therefore, the odds that dunn is scum go down because it would be slightly insane cause scum have day talk. This kind of gambit pays very little off and they could organize a much, much better plan than this.

So, if I had to guess from an actual consideration, dunn is unlikely scum. His wagon has Jaack and Creature, both of whom I dislike. Shame day 2's lynch wasn't informative.

I think I'm willing to HAMMER Creature, but not sure if we should consider waiting for Jake's replacement.


(This post is a bit all over the place, woops)

[TheOtherFiction]

Quick reread on relevant stuff:

the Jake/Dunn thing not resulting in a Dunn lynch is so insane.

Rereading different parts of this game wildly changes my town/scum reads. :/

[TheOtherFiction]

Oh you're arguing against it

I thought GF was blacklisted because that's what I learned after joining the site. I didn't read in-depth to realize this game for some reason isn't following current rules. (which have been active ever since I've joined the site)

Yeah as GF I don't have a reason to make a big spectacle about there being a gf

I think creature is most likely scum and would honestly just rather get a move on and have jake's replacement come in during the night

Yeah, my post was kind of stream of conciousness, it's a tad messy.
I actually argue both sides and conclude which is more likely depends on your level of depth as a player. Some are really competitive and plan out some contingencies way ahead.

Confirming: I will hammer Creature before deadline if nothing else, some lynch is better than no lynch. Plus, Creature has been terrible the past few pages.

Any thoughts on scum just lurking? ie, Bins? Jaack? (kind of) Tyler?

Tyler did put out some statements and made opinions, but Bins seems so flat, and I disliked Jaack who suddenly went incredibly neutral today.

[TheOtherFiction]

Oh, and xyz techinically. I completely left that one off my list. Whoops. (seriously!? 1 page iso?)

[TheOtherFiction]

It's not lurking when the game hasn't changed since you last posted

Talking about overall game, not just past few pages. 2/90 pages of posts is pretty poor.

[TheOtherFiction]

EBWOP: I should not have included Bins, used wrong metric. Ignore me.

[TheOtherFiction]

Putting this out there:

We basically need to decide that Dunn is town or else lynch him today.

toolenduso <-- No idea
Dunnstral <---slight town lean
TheOtherFiction <---town
Bins <---claim is semi townish?
xyzzy <--- ???
Tyler the Creator <-- ??? ahmmer,s good. MOre town than xyz, but that's not wroth much.
Jaack <--- slight scum lean

[TheOtherFiction]

btw, odds of 4 scum? Low? I'm thinking low.

[TheOtherFiction]

I've seen it twice with a single scum faction. One had a mafia who only won if the godfather was dead and he was alive, and the other had a mafia who was actually a cult leader and won only if the cult won.

One was a theme, forgot what the other was, but I think that role is "usurper?" or soemthing? I dunno.

Anyway, I'd prefer a Jaack lynch cause of earlier play and the general neutral feel of his day 3/4 posts. Why xyz over Jaack?

[TheOtherFiction]

Super contribution POST!

I have read to this point, nothing to add.

[TheOtherFiction]

TOF wanted to literally lynch you yesterday and today.

Also, irrational scum play:

Possible GF candidate: Dunn

I walked through the logic of that claim and pointed out that it would take a single person playing with the long gambit of claiming GF, but it was irrational to assume that Dunn would do this as it would take pretty specific circumstances and it doesn't justify the cop claim.

Furthermore, the existence of MACHO cop prevents a significantly strong scumteam. I'd say the odds of roleblocker with two goons is about as strong as it can be, and without a dedicated healer, fooling the cop with GF is a bit unfair for a normal.

Care to make an actual contribution on why we shouldn't lynch the popular town alternative, Xyz?

[TheOtherFiction]

I am fine with keeping this discussion going, and it's nice to see Jaack contribute more, but I still want him lynched.

Also, I never got a scumread on Tyler, but I haven't felt he was particularly town either. Just...a contributor which I like.

Unfortunately (good for everyone)

Dunn is confirmed town cause I'm assuming GF doesn't exist.
I'm confirmed town.
Bins is good enough for science.

I don't think tool is scum at the moment. I feel the read is a tad reaching, but more than one person are talking about it, so some towny thinks its worth considering.

If I picked an order right now (dunno if we'd lose at 2 mislynches? I think 3rd is a loss, but I can't math. Too tired)

Jaack
Xyz
Tool
is my order.

I rather dislike the idea of keeping Tyler alive so long because I have no strong read, but I feel pretty good about Jaack/Xyz being scum.

[TheOtherFiction]

yea, i think ive talked myself into it enough

vote:tool

I disagree, and double positing is fun.