Mini Normal 1775 END!

[Riabi]

Hi all. Just thought I'd pop in and say I've read through the game. Personally, I find 1506 to be a pretty compelling argument against mhsmith, not just the vote count (though that's the lion's share of why I find him suspicious). But I think that the point toast brought up about what almost said about him is telling.

VOTE: mhsmith0

[Riabi]

Riabi, do you have any comment on the Lowell wagon? If you think that Toasty's points are so telling, do you wonder why Toasty didn't vote?

I think the Lowell wagon has merit. I'm not totally convinced by it, but, I get it.

As for why Toasty didn't vote, that's actually a good question. Why didn't you vote Toasty?

At this point, anyone voting for smith I find suspicious as scum, since I a am 100% certain the smith is town. And if you ask me why, I'd have to try to prove some evidence which I will probably be told is irrelevant, so for now just take my word for it. I'm an extremely honest person.

I don't take anyone at their word about anything. I absolutely want to see your evidence. Also, I'd like to ask why you find it so compelling if you admit that others would not.

[Riabi]

Other would not find it compelling due to the fact that I'm not very good yet at justifying my claims. Also, if I gave you my evidence, it would greatly put me at risk as being the night kill, and I value my life.

Sounds like a bunch of bullshit to me.

If you've got evidence, and you're town, it's in the best interest of the town to share said evidence. Why all this stupid beating around the bush? Either you have evidence, and you're hurting the town by keeping it. Or you don't have any evidence, and you're playing some sort of stupid game to the detriment of the town. Which is it?

[Riabi]

...Also, if I gave you my evidence, it would greatly put me at risk as being the night kill, and I value my life.

I feel like I should address this point specifically. Barring any PRs doing their thing, there is going to be a NK, isn't it better to go out having done something to help find scum rather than to cower in fear of your life?

[Riabi]

...
I don't think a mafia would want to point out these statistics to town. This is just too pro town. I don't think either mhsmith0 nor Dierfire are mafia.

First off, as for the stats, I think I'm missing something, can someone do a rundown on what these calculations are for me? Are we basically talking about Bayseian probabilities here?

As for the above argument, I don't like it. I'm not saying it's a scummy argument, but, I think it's WIFOM. Scum would ABSOLUTELY point out stats if the point in the wrong direction. Why wouldn't they?

[Riabi]

Here's a cut-and-paste of my calculation from last night:

A = Garmr is Mafia
B = Kill is stopped

P(A|B) = P(B|A) * P(A) / P(B)

P(A) = 3/11
P(B) = P(C) + P(D) = 12/132 + 11/132 = 23/132

C = target is killer (1/11)
D = target is killed (1/12)

P (A|B) = P(B|A) * (3/11)(132/23) = (1/3) * (36/23) = 12/23


Adjust P(A) to 2/8, no change (2/8 = 3/12)

Hmmm, I'm still not getting it for some reason, but, I'm sure it's a failure on my part. For the time being, since no one seems to be arguing against the point your stats are making (only debating minor details of the arithmetic), I'm content to just go with the crowd on what they mean.

[Riabi]

As far as ct goes, I find his points kind of notable,me specially since we now know he's town. Feel free to re-debunk them though if you think it productive. Barring a much better lynch argument popping up, you're where I'm at.

What's your take on the case against Lowell? Does it have merit to you?

[Riabi]

Just want to throw out there this morning, this argument between Garmr and Lowell I feel is somewhat coordinated and I feel like those 2 are the most likely scum team

If I was scum with lowell I would of jumped on to madonna instead of trying to keep the lowell wagon afloat.

WIFOM. Maybe you would, maybe you'd bus. Unless you have a meta that supports your claim, then this justification is useless to me.

[Riabi]

Riabi, your vote is on mhsmith, isn't it? Do you think Garmr and Lowell can both be scum?

Yes it is, and I'm still comfortable with it there.
As for Garmr and Lowell, sure, they could both be scum. I can't think of any direct evidence for it off the top of my head, but, I also don't see any reason to exclude the possibility.

Riabi, your vote is on mhsmith, isn't it? Do you think Garmr and Lowell can both be scum?

I mean if it were me I'd be trying hard to choose between the two to make sure I get it right, then worry about that question AFTERWARDS if it comes to that. Weird question, bro.

Weird comment, bro. First off, the question was directed at me, why jump in to answer it so quickly? Secondly, we're in Day 4, with one scum dead, if we don't start looking at possible connections NOW, when should we? I'm not saying we have to 100% have it all worked out before we should vote or anything, but, there's certainly a lot of benefit in trying to figure out who might be bussing who, or who might be helping one another.

[Riabi]

I'm not sure what I think of the NK, it was weird to be sure. I'm going to have to put more thought into this...

As for my claim, I'm not claiming vengeful, and even Sakura re-canted before she left.

[Riabi]

VOTE: Dierfire

Seems like the most likely candidate to choose to kill texcat.

Sorry about the absence everyone. I'm read up, I don't really ahve a lot to add to the discussion. The cat kill was weird, and I'm not sure the reasoning behind it, but, Dierfire does seem like a likely candidate for it.

VOTE: dierfire

And to whoever asked for a list of my most recent games... I took about a year off of the site, so I don't remember which games were which alignment at this point, and I ended up flaking out and being replaced out of a few, so, it would be just as much work for me as you at this point to go through my game history.