Open 28 - Quack Mafia. OVER! But who won? before 466

[Tarhalindur]

/here

/reread

[Tarhalindur]

Looking at the setup, I'm pretty sure that there is some sort of breaking strategy here (ala Dethy) based on night results. As such, I'm strongly in favor of a mass target claim each day, and I consider failure to submit a doc protection in this setup a very anti-town, if not outright lynch-worthy offense.

As such,

Vote: curiouskarmadog

.

Now, on to finding the breaking strategy. At this point, I think that our most valuable assets are the players who targeted a unique target last night (scmp, who claims to have targeted Hjallti; n9v, who claims to have targeted JDodge, and d3sisted, who claims to have targeted Fernando).

D3sisted is Quack or Mafia (as the only player who claims to have targeted Fernando). If what I'm seeing is right, and D3sisted is, in fact, town, then he should target the player who he thinks is most likely to be scum. He should also declare target before night, so that he's the only doctor/quack targeting his target.

Scmp and N9V could be any of {Doctor, Quack who targeted Mafia N1, lying scum}. In order to narrow the possibilities, I think that scmp and n9v both need to target a different player tonight, and both need to make sure that they are the only doctor targeting their target. If one of scmp's or n9v's targets dies tonight, then we know that they are Quack and their N1 target is scum. Otherwise, they're Doctor or lying scum.

I'm not sure what everyone else should do just yet.

[Tarhalindur]

Quacks can't kill mafia.

So if your target lives, he's scum.

[Tarhalindur]

Hi. I have been prodded. I still lthink lynching ckd is the best idea.

That is all.

[Tarhalindur]

I still think that the ckd lynch is optimal.

I need to think things over and decide whether a Quack is a good or bad thing for the town.

[Tarhalindur]

I still think that the ckd lynch is optimal.

I need to think things over and decide whether a Quack is a good or bad thing for the town.

post confuses me...what are you thinking over?

I'm thinking over whether d3sisted is an acceptable lynch or a terrible lynch. (D3sisted replaced Dral, who we know is either Quack or Mafia.)

[Tarhalindur]

Either I'm Quack or there's three people who targeted Hjallti last night. (Yes, I targeted Hjallti.)

I'm guessing the former, which means that

both somestrangeflea and HonaryHitchhiker are almost certainly true Doctors

.

[Tarhalindur]

EBWOP: wait, they could be lying scum.

[Tarhalindur]

curiouskarmadog---Jdodge
Stewie---Jordan
JordanA24
Tarhalindur---Hjallti
somestrangeflea---Jdodge
JDodge---somestrangeflea
Roach
Honary Hitchhiker

still need claims for Honary Hitchhiker, Roach, and Jordana24

Jordan claimed to protect Vel-Rahn Koon.

HH just claimed a ssf protect.

[Tarhalindur]

I'm here.

I'm currently leaning towards the scum being ckd, ssf, and a player who protected Mert (ssf) N1, mainly due to Occam's Razor. Unfortunately, I'm short on time (I have 2 tests in the next 2 days), so I don't have time to elaborate at the moment.

[Tarhalindur]

Still short on time (stupid German class...), so here's a Cliffs Notes of my reasoning.

- Note that if SSF is scum, then from my perspective CKD *must* be scum (since then he was targeted by a Quack and nobody else N1, yet he survived, and the only way that thiscan happen is if CKD is scum as well).

- I believe that Jordan is probably town for the time being, due to a combination of play, his decision to claim targeting Vel-Rahn Koon (WIFOM, admittedly, but that claim feels town to me), and my inability to draw any good conclusions if Jordan is lying scum.

- CKD and SSF are likely scum, IMO - ckd's N1 (in)action is a scumtell to me, and having both CKD and SSF as scum is the simplest way to explain ckd's survival N1.

- I suspect that the third scum is likely lying about targeting N1, and probably claimed to target Mert (SSF) on N1 (for good or ill, this is based on a gut feeling).

I'll admit that the argument isn't as strong as I would like, but it makes more sense that any alternative that I can think of.

Still, the best decision here is probably to no-lynch and have no Doctors use their ability, as the extra death narrows down the possibilities (or else leads to a "and they all lived happily ever after" scenario, which I consider an acceptable outcome).

[Tarhalindur]

Thanks for all-but-claiming scum with ckd, ssf (especially since I was already leaning towards you two as scum).

I see two good options today: No Lynch, or lynch one of ckd/ssf, who are almost certainly scum. I favor the second option, and specifically the two-scum-for-the-price-of-one deal, myself.

Vote: SSF

.

[Tarhalindur]

still waiting for someone to answer my question of 588..

Still, the best decision here is probably to no-lynch and have no Doctors use their ability, as the extra death narrows down the possibilities (or else leads to a "and they all lived happily ever after" scenario, which I consider an acceptable outcome).

Reading is tech.

That said, I doubt that the "no-lynch is best" conclusion is still valid due to the high likelihood that you are scum and that ssf is your buddy.

[Tarhalindur]

<.<
>.>

... I was totally wrong about this game. GG, scum, I wouldn't have thought to lynch you even if the game had gone on (except maybe mneme, but he was only #3 on my scumlist).

Quacks were myself, Jordan, and Dral/d3sisted, right?

[Tarhalindur]

I had figured out that I was a quack, but I was almost certain that SSF was scum, so...

Yeah, as I said, I couldn't have figured out the real scum in this game in a million years.

[Tarhalindur]

If I was going to run this setup, I would probably decrease the number of Mafia by 1 (Mountainous games are traditionally 10 town - 2 scum, and no Town that I know of has won a mountainous game.)