Open 45 - Baby Too Much Scum - Game Over! before 506

[joost]

Vote: Flyinghawk

Because everyone knows hawks can't fly.

[joost]

Unvote, vote: ckillor

I'm trying to start some discussion by putting ckillor on 2 votes.

[joost]

"I am unvoting and voting again because I secretly want to put someone at 2 votes on the first page under the guise that I want to start discussion which as we all know is pro-town......."

unvote, vote joost

lets see if two people at 2 votes will start more discussion

It's not very secret if I announce it while I do it, now is it? I don't really understand why you consider starting discussion to be suspious enough to change your vote. You were pretty eager to jump on the first person to do something remotely out of the ordinary (i.e. something other than just a random vote). For now I'll just regard that as being excited that the game has started.

[joost]

@ joost: why ckillor?

FOS: joost

until i get a decent answer...

I think that joost voted ckillor to get someone at 2 and see what the reaction was....

Yes CKD is correct. That is was ckillor and not someone else was more or less random, he had posted (unlike edion0 and Qman) so I figured I could get a reaction from him. But basically it was sort of random.

[joost]

I'm not very suspicious of anyone at the moment. I really don't know how to get things started here.

[joost]

I'm going to

unvote

, cause my vote is pretty useless where it is now.

[joost]

er.... if you say so...

[joost]

I like wagons cause they give a lot of information. In case of a mislynch we can assume at least one of the people on the wagon is scum or at least anti-town. I don't think hopping on a bandwagon is scummy per se.

Also I would like to remark that I like CKD's attempts to get this game on the road. He strikes me as pro-town at the moment. I don't know who I find the most suspicious, we don't have enough content for that yet.

[joost]

Also, since this is an open game...what's the setup? From the roles in the opening page, I'd guess 8 = 1 FBI, 1 SK, 2 Mafia, 4 Townies (otherwise, a mislynch and town kill would cause the mafia to win immediately), but unless it's in the open thread somewhere I don't know where the setup is posted.

I agree that this is the most likely setup. 3 mafia members is a bit much. I'm not sure what would happen if there are 2 SK's...

[joost]

Thanks

[joost]

So now what do we do?

[joost]

from now on everyone voting is scum looking for a daytime lynch.

Wait, are you saying that townies should not vote? How do you suppose the day will end?

joost: Play your own game.

This is not solitaire, Mneme. The point of this game is to work together to find and lynch scum. I'm not really sure what you are trying to say with that statement. Could you clarify?

[joost]

And if Flyinghawk is so scummy from throwing down with a second vote then why did you vote for me instead of him? If he is as scummy as you claim then what makes me that much worse?

A reason beyond "I'm voting for you cus you voted for me." would be nice. That is all you can seem to come up with though.

-J

AGAIN you misrepresent me, I never gave my opinion on flyinghawk. Please quote where I claimed flyinghawk was scummy. Why are you putting words in my mouth? I thought it was interesting that you thought I was scummy but he wasn’t. Please show me where he provided more logic for a vote.

Also please explain this to me.. Given your “logic” you don’t see flyinghawk’s play as eager for a quick lynch.

SO let me get this straight. I remove my vote from someone who has two votes on them to someone who has none, because of a mneme’s odd play. In the process I ask her questions to get conversation started.

Flyinghawk, place a second vote on someone and doesn’t ask any questions to get conversation going

This is evidence to you, that I am more eager for a lynch?? Quit dodging the questions, do you feel flyinghawk is scummy? What are your thoughts on mneme, now?

Out of the whole debate this is what stands out to me most. I think CKD is right here and Jennar did twist his words. Which is a scum tell in my book. So

FoS: Jennar

I won't vote for him yet as he already has 2 votes against him.

However Flyinghawk did ask questions to get the conversation going and CKD even quoted them in his post.

Why did you vote Bird but not Ckillo, who did the same exact option right above Bird's post?

Furthermore I think Edion0's vote is pure bandwagoning. It's very easy for scum to watch two people argue, then pick a side and vote for the other guy.

IGMEOY

[joost]

you are right I was in the heat of the arguement and stand corrected..but even with that, I still wonder why flyhawk is less eager for a lynch than myself (in jennar's eyes) and still want the question answered.

I'm interested in that too.

[joost]

Well your head bumping is pretty interesting. I do however have a question for Jennar:

This is evidence to you, that I am more eager for a lynch?? Quit dodging the questions, do you feel flyinghawk is scummy? What are your thoughts on mneme, now?

He if you actually read my post instead of just picking out the parts you like then you might have actually caught the answer to this. I do feel flyinghawk was scummy but not as scummy covered as you.

Where exactly did you say or imply that you thought Flyinghawk was scummy? I've reread your posts and I can't detect where this was implied. In fact it seems like you said Flyinghawk wasn't scummy because he gave a reason for his vote. And does that mean you think CKD and Flyinghawk are scumbuddies?

PS. It seems to me that there are only males in this game. I'm not so sure about Flyinghawk, but I think he/she will confirm their gender soon. If we start referring to eachother as she and her I'll get confused....

[joost]

Are you going to answer my question at all, Jennar?

[joost]

I'm not going to mingle in this debate and getting accused of not reading post. I guess technically Jennar did say Flyinghawk was scummy with his "it does" but really I read over his posts twice and I missed it twice. He did more defending of Flyinghawk than accusing him of being scum.

I do find CKD's accusations of Flyinghawk to be a bit shakey. I'm wondering if maybe he's confusing FH and Bird11111, both being birds and all.

My conclusion from this argument is that I don't think Jennar and CKD are both scum and I'm actually leaning towards the possibility that neither is. If one or both of them were twisting each others words it's probably because they wanted to win the argument and not to hide their own scumminess.

My prime suspect at the moment is Edion for his bandwagon vote.

[joost]

Er... CuriousKarmaDog, who is "she"? Jennar's a he....

[joost]

How do CKD's arguments against Flyinghawk apply to me?

They don't really, but I did a quick reread and it seemed to me that if you combine your actions with Flyinghawk's it might be possible to see systematic bandwagoning. Either player seperate don't seem scummy to me. It was just a suggestion, nothing more.

[joost]

I'm here. Sorry about not being around these last days. I've been having some technical difficulties.

I don't have much time to post anything of content now. I will do that later I promise. Right now I would just like to add that I think Jennar's quick change of vote without a real reason besides "idiot" is suspicious.

A lot of interesting stuff has been happening though...

[joost]

Ok, this is what I find interesting about stuff (I won't quote everything to keep things readable):

About Jennar

Apparently there are two ideas about what a bandwagon is, which is not bad, just make sure everyone else knows which definition you are using. Putting a vote on someone that is not the first can be bandwagoning or doing so without any reason can be bandwagoning. That's fine. But to say that

"a bandwagon is just people jumping on a single individual without much rhyme or reason for doing so."

and

"A bandwagon is any sequence of people jumping on the same person."

are the same statement is just not right. And for someone who keeps accusing people of not reading well enough it is an odd thing to say and it lowers your credibility.

I don't think posting often or posting a lot means you are presenting yourself as a target per se. CKD posted just as much as Jennar and the latter got attacked more because of his posts. Stating incorrect things or using bad logic or contradictions are what make you a target for the other players.

A few questions: Did you vote for Mneme because you think he's scum? And if so, is he more scummy than CKD? And if not, why did you vote for him?

About Bird111:

This is what I noticed in your post (#127):

When did Jennar say mneme looked suspicious?

The answer to that is in your own post:

My stands on KarmaDog.

You come and Mneme come off looking like scum who are edging for anything to vote on just to try and get a lynch off. Without a Night phase to off townies in you

need

the day lynch to win.

Did you forget about that? Or did you purposely ignore it? You actually quoted that bit a few times, it's pretty hard to miss.

And if Flyinghawk is so scummy from throwing down with a second vote then why did you vote for me instead of him? If he is as scummy as you claim then what makes me that much worse?

This was accurate when this was posted.

How is this accurate? These are are questions, I'm not sure what you are trying to say here. Also because later you say:

And if Flyinghawk is so scummy from throwing down with a second vote then why did you vote for me instead of him? If he is as scummy as you claim then what makes me that much worse?

A reason beyond "I'm voting for you cus you voted for me." would be nice. That is all you can seem to come up with though.

-J

AGAIN you misrepresent me, I never gave my opinion on flyinghawk. Please quote where I claimed flyinghawk was scummy. Why are you putting words in my mouth? I thought it was interesting that you thought I was scummy but he wasn’t. Please show me where he provided more logic for a vote.

Also please explain this to me.. Given your “logic” you don’t see flyinghawk’s play as eager for a quick lynch.

SO let me get this straight. I remove my vote from someone who has two votes on them to someone who has none, because of a mneme’s odd play. In the process I ask her questions to get conversation started.

Flyinghawk, place a second vote on someone and doesn’t ask any questions to get conversation going

This is evidence to you, that I am more eager for a lynch?? Quit dodging the questions, do you feel flyinghawk is scummy? What are your thoughts on mneme, now?

ckd has a point here.

So first you say Jennar was accurate with his questions and then you say CKD has a point when he says that Jennar is misrepresenting him and putting words in his mouth. Do you think that CKD did say that Flyinghawk was scummy?

I basically agree with the rest of Bird1111's post. And I would like an answer to these:

How was ckd fishing for a bandwagon with his vote on mneme? How was Jennar fishing for a bandwagon?"

and more questions for Bird: Do you think Jennar is suspicious? And would you put the hammer on him if you had the chance?

[joost]

If you post little it gives other less information to twist and spin. You'll notice how CKD avoids answering questions directly and giving direct responses. He never states that he considers people scum only that they have 'odd' or suspicious plays. His ambiguity makes him hard to nail down and to me at least reeks of a scum tell.

I think CKD thinks you are scum, at least his vote is on you. And he voted for Mneme because he felt Mneme voted for no good reason at all. I can understand that really.

I voted Mneme simply because I have no desire to deal with his conformist ideals on how a game should be played only because of precedent and discourse that has been established on this forum.

I still think CKD is scummy but Mneme is causing conflict for the sake of causing conflict and town or no he benefits us none in doing so.

I agree with what Flyinghawk said. Voting for someone because he plays like other people on this site, in other words, a well tested way of playing is strange at least. If you don't like the way this game is played, why are you here? I'm pretty convinced you are scum now and I have a feeling that the more you talk the more you will convince me I'm right.

vote: Jennar

So Joost what are your thoughts on CKD and Mneme?

What do you think about CKD's constant excuse of voting being that he is "trying to generate conversation"?

I think CKD only said he was trying to generate conversation to explain his vote on Mneme (well that and Mneme's odd play.) And I think that's a valid argument that early in the game. We were just exiting the random phase and something had to kick this game into gear. I think CKD defended himself well against you.

Mneme has showed some strange plays. I'm slightly suspicious of him because of his voting behaviour (He voted Edion0, Bird1, Edion0 again and Jennar) and his reasoning at the end of the voting phase. I liked his punk-play though, I think it worked and it did lead to emotional reactions.

[joost]

Joost

Joost can't seem to make up his mind. In some cases he sites me as being scummy but then retract by saying the he thinks that neither me nor CKD is scummy only to reverse his decision again. He his sure that I am Mafia though earlier he states that he thinks that both me and CKD are town and his major suspicions lie with Edion0. He has contributed much though and has been spot on about responding to questions.

Overall I am on the fence about Joost. He does several things that are scum tells to me (flip flopping quickly with little explanation) but on the other hand seems to be actively looking for scum. I would like to know what he thinks of things since he last posted.

I did change my mind about Jennar over the course of the game. He seemed town but he lost his credibility in his last posts (especially the Mneme vote and the explanation he gave). My other two suspects are Edion0 and Mneme, Edion hasn't added much so far except the quick Jennar vote earlier. I'd like him to post more.

And to answer the question: Since I last posted the thing that stands out most is Jennar changing from being aggressive (for instance post 134) to being apathic (post 154) to trying to buddy up to CKD and Mneme (posts 165 and 174). Well maybe buddying up isn't the right term, but at least he has weakened his tone a lot. I'm not sure if that's a scum tell. Jennar is under a lot of pressure and it seems that he just wants to stay in the game. I think if he were townie he would do the same. Still scum lose more by a scum lynch than town by a town lynch. I'm curious to see what will happen next if Jennar lives a while longer.

[joost]

my interpretation of the rules seems to be that the mafia aren't that different from the town. The one real scum is the serial killer, whereas the 2 mafia look like that type of scum who are inept at doing anything important

I havent had time to go back and provide my stance on everyone in the game yet (for it will take some rereading), but this stuck out to me.."the mafia arent that different from the town"??? What?! I am surprised no one else (except mneme) has jumped on this. Mafia

are

scum, and win the game when they have the majority...mafia are trying to kill us(through lynches). I think what you are trying to say is that they have ONE of the same goals with us (which is to kill the SK). However, if all the town is dead and it gets down to three players (2 mafia and a SK) the mafia win. Are you insinuating that we shouldnt be worried about mafia? When exactly should we be worried about mafia? I am trying to find scum, at this point I would be happy with a mafia lynch or a SK lynch. Please dont try to convince us that "mafia is no different".

Well mafia are trying to kill us by lynching and we are trying to kill the scum by lynching. In that we are not much different. The real different is that everyone has (silently) claimed townie so far and nobody claimed scum. The scum has the advantage of knowing their buddy and the town has the advantage of the numbers. But the lack of night kills has made scum very similar to town folk. I don't think saying that is worth jumping on.

[joost]

Page 7:
--Jennar, whatever you do, never, ever, EVER give up. You'll be bandwagoned for that before you can apologize. Always try and help the town regardless of how dire your situation is. REGARDLESS. Because come endgame your ideas may be what's needed for the town to win. You can also boast/gloat after the game is over that you knew who the scum were and other such things. Never give up.

QFT

Joost:

Joost kinda stays out of things, not really getting his hands dirty but he seems quite active. I don't really have an opinion of him other than feeling town from his posts but scum from his noncommital opinions and lurking. Leaning more toward scum but he would fit the sk bill much better. Not going to FoS but i'm definitely going to ask: Joost, please present your opinions of everyone in this game, not just some.

To explain the noncommital thing. I think that in a game where scum has no night kill it's important not to lynch too fast. I didn't want to vote too early and I tried to stay in the neutral for as long as possible. But I think that this town might be ready for a lynch. I don't think I lurked much, I was absent for about 5 days last week due to technical difficulties, but before that I was as active as anyone, besides CKD and Jennar.

Ok this is my suspect list (high to low):

Jennar

: My vote is on him, mostly because of his bad logic and the fact that he doesn't seem to read other peoples posts and then complains about people not reading his. He's the only one at the moment whom I would be willing to lynch...

Mneme

: Mneme seems to be lurking a lot and when he posts he often votes. He's changed his vote a lot and he really doesn't care who gets lynched it seems. And the "I'm happy to punish people who treat the random stage as a joke." just felt overly zealous.

Edion0

: He's been playing scummy, but I never realized he could be a newbie (looking at his title and the date he joined). The explaining he did these last posts make me less suspicious of him.

Ckillor/White

Ok I don't know how Ckillor slipped under the scumdar of almost everyone. Posts very little, hardly any content and he claims he's too busy with other games to post here. He has acted scummy and almost got away with it. White however is almost the complete opposite. He posts a lot, does a lot of scumhunting and he adds a lot of content to the game, I'm glad he's here. What I don't like about White's player list is the fact that he voted once and FoS-ed 3 other people out of 7 players. Basically he's spreading his chips and I don't really like that, especially since he's accusing me of doing the same.

Bird1111

Btw I know it's four ones, I'm just being annoying. I'll stop that now. He does post but he doesn't give his opinion very often. He asks a lot of questions which make me think he's actively scum hunting. He seems pro-town to me. But I would like him to answer my questions.

FlyingHawk

I actually see very little suspicious behaviour from FlyingHawk. I think one of the problems is that CKD and Jennar have been posting a lot at that makes it seem like the rest is lurking. And the mafia/town comparison is not

that

bad.

CKD

has focused on Jennar at lot but his arguments are valid and he's actively scumhunting. Either pro-town or very good scum.

[joost]

Joost

Joost, straight-up does not seem very scummy to me. He is an active player that asks questions but doesn't give up too much information. He seems to not like CuriousKarmaDog very much, as he attacks CKD from time to time. Perhaps a bit more questioning on this guy, so he has to give up a bit more info. But for now, not scummy.

I have nothing against CKD, in fact I like the way he plays (also in the other game I'm in with him). I may have confronted him with a few questions, but I don't see much suspicious behaviour from him.

BTW where's Mneme?

[joost]

Joost

Joost, straight-up does not seem very scummy to me. He is an active player that asks questions but doesn't give up too much information. He seems to not like CuriousKarmaDog very much, as he attacks CKD from time to time. Perhaps a bit more questioning on this guy, so he has to give up a bit more info. But for now, not scummy.

I have nothing against CKD, in fact I like the way he plays (also in the other game I'm in with him). I may have confronted him with a few questions, but I don't see much suspicious behaviour from him.

BTW where's Mneme?

[joost]

EBWOP, oops sorry about the double post...er I mean triple post.

[joost]

So basically we need to find out who the SK is...(I know I'm stating the obvious here.)

unvote

I think

Bird1111 needs a prod

, and I would like him to answer the questions I asked him.

Btw I double posted with Jennar's claim and didn't see it until now, which is why I didn't unvote right away.

[joost]

Question for Mookeh: Is this your first game of Mafia? Looking at your join date and the amount of game posts at the site you look like a newbie. If you have gained expercience somewhere else please let us now.

I'm not really happy with Bird's response, I asked him a few questions which he didn't answer.

Did you forget about that? Or did you purposely ignore it? You actually quoted that bit a few times, it's pretty hard to miss.

Was that in the same post an earlier post or a later post than the post I quoted when I asked the question? As post 127 was done piece by piece, I did not look through it to make sure everything I asked had not been already answered.

Yes it was in the same post.

So first you say Jennar was accurate with his questions and then you say CKD has a point when he says that Jennar is misrepresenting him and putting words in his mouth. Do you think that CKD did say that Flyinghawk was scummy?

Same response.

Ok I suggest you read back your own post and mine where I asked the questions. I asked you why you said Jennar's questions were accurate, it seemed an odd statement. And I'd like you to answer the question I quoted there too " Do you think that CKD did say that Flyinghawk was scummy?" It kinda seemed like a lazy response after a period of absence from this game, I'm not sure how to see this as a sign of your allignment though, but I'll take it as pro-town for now. Please answer my questions though, because not answering them is a scum tell.

I'd like to talk game mechanics now: Jennar claimed FBI and nobody counter claimed so I have no other option than to assume Jennar is telling the truth and is pro-town (and didn't play very well as he got forced to claim). I don't see why Mneme still thinks he's scummy but doesn't vote for him. Either you believe him and he's innocent or you don't believe him and he's scum who should die.

So assuming Jennar is FBI he will most likely die this night. The chances of catching the right scum (i.e. the SK) are slim. Just looking scummy is not enough to vote for someone at the moment it seems, we need to find SK-tells. The other scum or not as important right now. I am wondering now what good it did to have Jennar claim. If he claimed Townie he would have died and if he claimed scum he would have died. Jennar was a dead man to begin with and having him claim FBI agent only hurt the town.

If Jennar was lying and he's scum I have to say kudos to the real FBI agent. Not counter claiming seems to be the best option. If he turns out to be scum Mneme is a likely buddy who tried to distance himself from the fake claimer.

FoS: Mneme

for calling an FBI agent scummy or distancing from a fake claim. Whatever Jennar's alignment, Mneme looks scummy. I would have voted for him but I don't think he's the SK and we

need

to find him first.

White, why did you make Jennar claim? Besides the FBI claim what could have saved him from a lynch?

[joost]

Ok thanks for clearing that up.

Mneme – Knows exactly when to pressure and suggest, seems deliberate. Did use an ad hominem argument - may be a sloppy townie or a smart scum. FoS.

Do you think the "Punk" remark is either sloppy or scummy? And is that the reason you FoS him?

[joost]

Do you think the "Punk" remark is either sloppy or scummy? And is that the reason you FoS him?

From what I can read of him, Mneme is far more deliberate than his emotional outbursts suggest. He could just be baiting, but he could also be scummy. Either way, I think he's pretty cunning and not sloppy. But I'm hesitant about voting for him just now.

Apparently you now say that a cunning townie can use ad hominem arguments, I agree with this. But I'm not sure why you FoS-ed him.

This still leaves me with White, who, as someone else pointed out, came in with guns blazing. This is fine by me, except he accused me of jumping on the lynching bandwagon even though I didn't even cast a vote yet and was very diplomatic in my analysis. He also forced Jennar. If Jennar is really FBI, this seems scummy, and if Jennar is secretly scum, then White still isn't cleared. Like Joost, I would like to know White's motivation for this.

Well I agree with White on that. What you call diplomatic, I call vague and non committed. You sort of pointed at FH, I wonder if you have a bigger case on him than that. You are showing SK traits and so did Edion0, he didn't seem to care much who got lynched as long as it wasn't he. He voted for Jennar and when he got attacked on that he unvoted. In fact I think you are the most likely suspect for the SK. Also your last post confirms this as you are backing off from what you said.

Vote: Mookeh

I do this also to add some pressure.

I don't agree with CKD's assessment. If we do get the SK day 1 we won't know Jennar's alignment for sure, though I will assume that he's telling the truth. But now we will have to find the SK without help from the powers of the FBI, which is going to be hard.

[joost]

No shit you want to add pressure, Sinterklaas.

It's seems to have worked, hasn't it?

I don't have a bigger case on him than that. I didn't vote him - I didn't vote anyone. I'm suspicious of him for exactly the same reasons the others are. I'm not being selfish - I'm being cautious, as opposed to you, who is definitely looking for a scapegoat right now, whereas I'm still considering the options. You

want

me to lash out and vote someone? Then point to others requiring to do them the same thing. Singling me out for that is not logical, unless you count Edion's posts.

Well I don't want you to lash out for no reason but being diplomatic will not help us and as we need to find the SK who has no buddies or fellow townies to worry about people being "diplomatic" is what we should be looking for.

To be honest, I'm not lucky, being a newbie and being required to fill the shoes of someone who played that badly. The worst part is Edion made himself look really guilty and now I'm stuck with that reputation. Readings his posts, even

I

would say he looks scummy. But look at my posts - just

my

posts - for a moment. I'm a frequent poster, I respond to everything I'm asked/accused of. I make no outrageous claims (except once, where I misunderstood the rules).

You just said that you weren't a newbie or at least that you have some experience. In this game you are forever connected to Edion wether you like it or not, we can't look at your allignment without looking at Edion too. The fact that you are a frequent poster is very much appreciated but it could just be a change of tactic from Edion.

I'm backing off from White because I read Jennar's lynch more closely, yes. How is this scummy? It would only be scummy if I chose a new 'scapegoat', which I haven't. Your argument doesn't make sense.

I hope that if the votes

do

pile up on me and I get lynched day 1, you're going to feel incredibly stupid for a moment, because if that happens, you deserve to lose the game. Two people have voted on me now with no good arguments - except Edion's comments, granted.

The fact that you backed off from White after CKD confronted you (and me) about it and this last post of yours make you look nervous. But if you're a townie you don't have to be so nervous, if you are the SK on the other hand...

You are at the moment my prime suspect for the SK and Mneme is my prime suspect for being Mafia. That is why my vote is on you.

[joost]

Well I don't want you to lash out for no reason but being diplomatic will not help us and as we need to find the SK who has no buddies or fellow townies to worry about people being "diplomatic" is what we should be looking for.

Look, I appreciate how you're trying to speed things up, but I can't make accusations without really supporting them, and I have nothing

that

good to go right now. You

are

pushing me to become more agressive in my accusations, but I'm not able to. I haven't voted yet, and will only do so when I'm extremely convinced. Call it newbieness.

I'm not trying to speed things up, I'm trying to explain to you why White and me find you suspicious because of what you say is "diplomatic" behaviour.

Bad logic. I said I played in IRC and IRL. You never have to fill in in those situations, so this situation

is

new for me. And I see your point about changing tactics, but there's nothing I can do to defend myself there, is there? Edion did a bad job, and I look bad because of it. Of course I'm going to be linked to him by everyone, I don't blame 'm. But I want you to consider for a moment that I could very well be speaking the truth. In that case, you can also see my point about feeling harassed "unfairly". Might I point out that some parts of Edion's comments have been proven beyond all doubt? When he said he was busy, people accused him of lurking, and yet here I am replacing him.

Well you could be speaking the truth and you could be a townie but then who is the scum? Any ideas?

It makes me look like a newbie, which is what I am. I didn't realise White held the final vote in Jennar's lynching, and once I did read it carefully, I concluded it would completely be within White's power to lynch an innocent without ever being a suspect, which makes

him

an innocent in my book. That's good logic. So you still have no good reason to vote for me. Funnily enough, I don't suspect you - you do seem an innocent.

Ok I believe you on this. I have the annoying habit of just glancing over some posts too when I reread threads. I won't hold it against you unless you do it again.

Jennar's post gave me the feeling that he's not the SK. Might be scum but most likely is FBI agent.

I'm going to do a reread of everyone within the next few days. I'll probably will post again on Wednesday.

[joost]

Just for the record (as CKD implied). Using arguments like "Why would I do that if I were scum?" or "Scum would never do...." is bad logic known as WIFOM.

Good arguments would be "A townie would never do..." or "Why would you do that if you were town?" or "Only scum would do..." followed by an explanation about why you think a certain action is scummy. I'm telling you this because you claimed newbie, I don't think your stupid or anything.

I will

unvote

because I feel that what I thought was scummy nervousness is actually excitement about the game.

[joost]

I did a quick reread of all of White's posts and he doesn't really appear scummy to me. The only thing I noticed about him is that he voted for Edion, Bird and Mookeh and he was willing to lynch Jennar. Which either means he's actively trying to find scum or he doesn't really care who gets lynched. But since he explained all of his voted I think it's the former. Ckillor's lurking fitted the scum/sk bill though, I'm not really sure. I think White is pro-town for the moment. I don't think his case on Mookeh is flawed really but I think Mookeh is newbie town while White thinks he's newbie scum.

[joost]

Mookeh has a point actually. He didn't really attack FH much in his List of Suspects, he even FoS'ed Mneme but White ignores that (and I missed it completely).

Is this a mistake on your part White or is there a reason you didn't mention the FoS?

Btw

Mod, vote count please

[joost]

So are we waiting on White now?

[joost]

I would think that using Mneme's assumptions (FH is likely to be scum) would mean that "chance of winning if we hit town today" would mean we lynch FH today and he turns out town and "chance of winning if we hit mafia today" would mean FH is scum. Lynching someone else (on suspicion of being SK would complicate matters in this calculation I think. I'll think about it.

Btw I still don't agree on a FH lynch at this moment, I have not seen enough scummy behaviour from him.

[joost]

A quick calculation (assuming we random lynch anyone but Jennar):

There's a 6/7 chance of not hitting the SK on Day 1 (and lose Jennar night 1)
There's a 5/6 chance of not hitting the SK on Day 2 (another kill night 2)
There's a 3/4 chance of not hitting the SK on Day 3 (another kill night 3 and SK wins with one other player left)

Which means that if we random lynch the SK has a 6/7*5/6*3/4 = 15/28 (little more than half) chance of winning. So random lynching with the SK alive is not a good idea. It also means that any calculation with the SK alive or no good and we can assume killing him at some point for probability analysis.

[joost]

Sorry to post 3 times in a row, but I just realized that on day 4, if 1 Mafia remains with the SK, Mafia wins. Anyway, chances are big that town will lose if we random lynch.

[joost]

Joost: on night 2, the mafia wins if neither we nor the sk have killed/lynched a goon.

Unless we opt for no lynch or the SK decides not to kill. But you are correct on this.

Also, your analysis as presented is fairly pointless, since the "odds of the town winning" are the status quo. We have 3 chances to find the SK, if we don't find the SK in one of these three chances, the town loses and either the SK or the mafia wins.

My analysis shows that we infact have 3 chances to do that. Which was not as obvious to me before I did that analysis as it was to you, I guess. I don't know what you mean by "since the "odds of the town winning" are the status quo".

I was going to do another indepth analysis, basically the options are now finding the SK day 2 and finding him day 3, as you covered the odds if we find him today.

That said, your continued defense of FH is noted.

Ok

Note that the town's odds go up considerably if we correctly identify both mafia today, and then start shooting for the SK. The mafia's chance of winning drop to 0 (the sk will kill believed mafia in preference to town, so as not to lose)

Are you saying, we identify them and let them live then try to lynch the SK? The SK will most likely kill Jennar first then go after the Mafia. If there are still 2 Mafia in town after night 1 it means we have lost 2 townies. Also Mafia are on our side in finding the SK which I guess is a good thing.

unvote

Did you unvote because you are trying to lynch the SK now?

[joost]

I'm gone till wednesday.

[joost]

Hi I'm back.

Welcome to the game, Kuribo.

joost - Pops up at just the right moment. He seems to be sitting back and letting others do the work. Also seems to throw around the "bandwagon" accusation quite a bit, even when no bandwagon seems to exist. When he does post, its seemingly to make mountains out of molehills. (See his vote against Jennar.) Opportunistic scum, perhaps?

Can you give me an example of me making mountains out of molehills?

On the claim: I don't really understand why Jennar would not claim FBI if he were mafia. What does he have to lose? If he claimed vanilla he would have been dead. Now there's a chance we let him live till the end. If we catch the SK today Jennar is still not a confirmed townie, I think that once we lynch the SK, the real FBI agent should counterclaim immediatly.

I disagree with CKD that if Jennar's claim is false the real FBI agent should counterclaim today. As long as we haven't lynched the SK, it's best to have the FBI to be anonymous. If Jennar is the SK that does mean that he will not win because at some point the real FBI agent will claim and he will get lynched. But Jennar would have been dead now if he claimed otherwise.

If Jen is the real deal the SK will kill him tonight most likely or maybe night 2. Basically Jennar is screwed and will not reach end game.

I do think that we should accept the claim to be the truth because doubting it will not help us much.

[joost]

I would like to know what Kuribo thinks of Bird's play. What would he have done differently if he played this game from the start?

[joost]

Just for the record, we can afford 2 mislynches (i.e. lynching anyone other than the SK) especially if we lynch scum instead or if the SK kills scum. I'm not saying we should therefor lynch anybody we think is remotely possibly the sk, but we're not at lylo or anything.

BTW is FlyingHawk still here?

[joost]

Thanks for modding Flameaxe

and welcome JDodge.

This game is going into stalemate it seems. I also noticed no rules have been defined for a deadline. I don't think we need a deadline though, I doubt it will make players post more. I do think however that we need to work to lynch.

I'm going to do a reread and I will probably vote too, if only to keep this game moving.

[joost]

Welcome to the game, Oman.

[joost]

Flyinghawk + Kuribo/bird = mafia Mneme = SK

NO UR NOT RITE

mneme =/= SK, Kuribo is not scum with flyinghawk (he's scum with either CKD or mneme), and joost is the SK.

Unvote, vote: joost

What lead you to this conclusion?

Also I have a feeling Mneme is more likely scum than SK. This is based on the fact that he said Jennar was scummy after his claim. I don't believe that he just didn't change his post after he read the claim. I think Mneme is playing too aggressive and striking to be the SK, I think.

[joost]

Joost: I'd love for you to have some opinions. Ever since you accused me temporarily on page 12, you have not made a single real statement. There were some general calculations (which mean shit, btw), a reluctance on voting FH, a reluctance on voting mneme now - this is all fine and dandy but I'd love for you to throw yourself into the mix and actually

say stuff

. You're like a lurker without the lurking. Give us your thoughts... or are you afraid of being drawn into the line of fire?

Are you trying to pressure me into voting? I'm reluctant about voting because I want to find the SK and not just lynch scum. I guess my main suspects for the SK are Flyinghawk and Kuribo. But my suspicion of Kuribo is mostly based on ckillor's play. Lurking and not speaking up, basically what you are accusing me of.