Open 45 - Baby Too Much Scum - Game Over! before 506

[mneme]

I confirmed over the weekend, but I don't usually play Mafia then.

vote: Edion0

Bandwagons are a -good- thing!

[mneme]

Bandwagons give up info -- elicit defense, bandwagoining,etc.

Moreover, bandwagons are a step in the direction of the lynch -- and the lynch is how the town usually kills scum.

[mneme]

Mislynches are a cost of playing the game -- the lynch frequently kills town, but the nightkill nearly always does.

The bandwagon, however, always reveals info, even if it's info you have to take with a grain of salt -- who jumps on, who jumps off, etc are very important and very telling.

Pretty happy with my vote for now.

[mneme]

Flyinghawk: thanks for pointing this out -- I totally missed that this was a mafia-kill-less game.

However, what you said is true of both mafia and town (and even FBI) -- the only real difference between mafia and town in this game is that the mafia know who their friends are, wheras the town is much more probe-y (not an actual word . In theory, the mafia should be easier to catch in this game than in a trad game -- in order to use their advantage, they have to swing the vote toward town and away from scum -- but we'll see if we can take advantage of this.

Also, since this is an open game...what's the setup? From the roles in the opening page, I'd guess 8 = 1 FBI, 1 SK, 2 Mafia, 4 Townies (otherwise, a mislynch and town kill would cause the mafia to win immediately), but unless it's in the open thread somewhere I don't know where the setup is posted.

[mneme]

Checked the open thread -- my conjecture is correct.

[mneme]

joost: Play your own game.

Personally? I'm happy to punish people who treat the random stage as a joke.

unvote
vote: bird1111

Unvoting your random just because the game seems to be stalling seems to be some wierd mutation of "unvote for no damn reason".

Morover, the entire attidude -- that there's some hard and fast stage between "random" and "exiting the random stage" when random votes are discounted is both artificial and seems to miss the point of random voting in the first place.

[mneme]

1. Mneme is a 'he'. See the icon.

2. I missed ckillor's unvote between ckd's "feeling old and tired" unvote and bird111. 3 sequential unvotes make a mneme confused. I'd have voted for ckillor otherwise. (but not ckd, since his explaination was more reasonable). This wasn't a random vote, but was a fairly low-seriousness vote -- there is something scummy in seeing the "random stage" as a joke rather than the launching off point of more serious bandwagons, but not that much. Regardless, it got a reaction and -was- more or less a philosophy vote, so

unvote

.

3. As I mentioned, the difference between scum in town in this game is very similar to that in many other games, despite the lack of night kill. Town want to identify scum and lynch them; scum want to secure a lynch of anyone outside their group, or failing that, be seen as town. They'd like to lynch the SK, but then, all but one of us would.

4. I'm fascinated by the hot ckd/Jennar action, but not going to commit on one side or the other with a vote yet. ckd's looking better than Jennar, though.

[mneme]

Oh, re "play your own game" -- Yes, this is a team game, but it's one that relies on everyone playing actively rather than asking others what to do. If people just follow and trust blindly, the town will typically lose -- badly.

[mneme]

Actually, Edion0's vote is very scummy on multiple levels -- the "yeah, I'm voting for you, but if you put up a half-assed defense, I'll unvote" feels very much like a bus to me.

[mneme]

Why would ckillor have gotten your vote had you seen his out of curiousity? There was a slight difference in wording, but other than that our behavior was similar.

He did it first. Following can be a scumtell, but so is doing something scummy first
(actually, he didn't do it first, but I'd already let similar sentiment pass on previous pages, since I didn't notice and was talking about other stuff; only really noticed that on a re-read too).

I generally agree with this, but the mafia do not want the SK lynched day 1, as that means the mafia needs to get 3 (if neither are found) or 5 (if one is found) misslynches. While with the SK alive, they can win by Day 3 at the latest if neither of them dies.

I'm not going to do all the math for this right now, but this depends greatly on perceived odds of a mislynch (which is very dependent on average and mafia skill) and odds of the SK killing a mafia member (assuming the SK is choosing randomly or even avoiding mafia prospects (an interesting question, since the SK loses ties), 1/3 on night 1 (1/6 if we lynch mafia), 1/2 on night 2 (1/4 if a mafia has previously been killed)).

Oh, and in terms of practicing what I preach...

vote: edion0

[mneme]

Jennar, you appear to not understand how this game works.

Without -bandwagons- during the day, the town is no better off with a long day than we would be with a short one.

Again, this is not a particularly unusual game in the day. The mafia and SK want to find a quick victim and get the town to help lynch them without revealing too much info; the smart townies want to form bandwagons and use them to find the mafia (and the SK, though that's harder).

And you? Seem to be looking for victims, rather than playing the game.

unvote
vote: Jennar

casting around "so and so is quick to lynch" for more or less no reason -is- being quick to lynch; too much of a push, too fast.

[mneme]

Jennar, you appear to not understand how this game works.

The problem is that I understand this game all too well.

No, you don't. Punk.

Without -bandwagons- during the day, the town is no better off with a long day than we would be with a short one.

In essence a bandwagon is just people jumping on a single individual without much rhyme or reason for doing so.

Um, no.

A bandwagon is any sequence of people jumping on the same person.

By majority the Scum are more likely to jump on Town wagons in an effort to lynch them. Wagons rarely form against scum unless there is a flat out mistake from the Mafia.

And thus you show how much of a punk you are.

If the scum play this way, they will always lose against moderately competent town.

But if they -don't- play this way, they have a better chance of losing one or more of their number to an early bandwagon.

And if they try to jump on bandwagons on scum-mates without being willing to ride those bandwagons to a conclusion, again, they risk exposure.

This is why bandwagons are important; they are how the town gains info -- and thus how the town wins.

What, do you think the town is -asleep- while you and your scum-mates are off trying to get a townie lynched?

Punk.

[mneme]

ckd: sorry, got tired of Jennar playing with no respect for existing principle, or any, for that matter. His lack of reading comprehension astounds me, as well (any reason = no reason?).

But his contradictions (he actually both said "scum will avoid voting for partners" and "scum will attack partners just like everyone else"??) are actually a strong scumtell, so I'm pretty happy with my vote.

I'm pretty happy with gentle namecalling in this game; it leads to emotional reactions, which can reveal scumsigns.

[mneme]

ckd: Somtimes, I find the game works better as a sequence of two player conversations -- you get some convo, then a bit more; eventually you've got enough to try to work with. I didn't find enough worth hanging onto in your earlier conversation, so I sat back and ate popcorn for a bit, but I'm happy to take my own turn in the ring when it comes to it.

OTOH, too many people talking at once can sometimes brew chaos and confusion -- preventing things from getting to the point where you can draw any real conclusion from the text.

But yeah; it's definately time for some others to pop in and talk.

[mneme]

FOS: Flyinghawk

. The mafia are -very- different from town. They are scum, working with one another try try to kill the town, whereas the town is trying to identify the scum in their midst through deduction. In nearly any mafia game, the ones trying to identify their enemies are the town; the ones who already know who their enemies are are the scum.

Jennar, I do dislike your style, but mostly because it involves avoiding any past history or method for the game and -also- seems intent on punishing people for playing the game with commitment. Basically, you seem intent on attacking people for playing like town and ignoring people who play like scum -- which seems unlikely to work; moreover, you back up this dubious method with dubious logic. The fact that you ignore language as it makes sense (ie, using the terminology people mean rather than some spurious "ideal" of language, ie, trying to imply that what a dictionary says about a "bandwagon" has any relevance when interpreting what people on Mafiascum say when they talk about "bandwagons") doesn't make you a better person or player, it just makes you look like an idiot.

That's not, however, why I'm voting for you; I'm voting for you because in defense of your ideas, you wiggle like a snake, contradicting yourself and posting craplogic -- very much a scum tell by any method. In general, I -prefer- games that come down to vote analysis, because I find a result or lynch based on same to be very satisfying (see, say, Fire and Ice mafia in Little Italy, which consisted of a perfect game; four scum, four scum lynches, with a fair amount of vote analysis informing them. But really, the methods that feed vote analysis also leave a nice trail for other forms of analysis -- which is why votes, genuine votes, and multiple real bandwagons during a day are important indicators of town success. I'm also voting you because your -application- of your method seems to be to attack people for doing reasonable things, ie, vote/attack people, which is what the town has to do in this game to win. The town can't win the game by sitting back, letting the mafia attack people, and then lynch them; it just doesn't work that way--so assuming the first people to attack anyone are the most likely to be mafia is simply wrong-headed (and smacks of scapegoating, which -is- a mafia strategy).

[mneme]

Yay, content.

Can we have a vote count?

Votecount

Jennar (3) - Curiouskarmadog, Mneme, Joost

Bird1111 (1) - White

5 To Lynch.

[mneme]

Yeah, I can be fairly lazy at times. So it goes. A couple of my games finished up, so I may have more time.

I'm still quite interested in Jennar, but I don't want this day cut short, and

he

is far from the only scummy player.

unvote

FOS: Jennar

Jennar: many, many scummy things here, primarily craplogic and some wierd attacks. No indication of mafia vs SK. His idea that people voting and attacking people are the most likely scum is Just Wrong. Scummy.

edion0: farily scummy. Lurking, lots of following, tends to let people influence him too much (too interested in public opinion).

joost: Not a huge read, but fairly town so far. And he liked my trash-talking. :) Defended Flyinghawk.

I was going to continue this, but it's more important to post it now, since we have an important (ish. Almsot certainly not scum, more importantly) claim.

[mneme]

Ug. Didn't get around to posting today, so I'm going to make this quick.

1. Ad Homenim isn't nearly as inappropriate in this game, where we -are- attacking one another.
2. Technically, my argument against Jennar wasn't ad homenim, just insult-laden. I made a perfectly non-fallacy-laden attack on Jennar's argument, and followed this up by insulting him (rather than the insults being the basis of my argument; "BM always plays scum like he's playing this game" is an ad homenim argument, as is "PDQ is a lousy player, so we should lynch him even if he's town", while "your argument is crap for this reason, the fact that you continue to argue it after I've demolished it shows you're an idiot" isn't ad homenim, just gratuitously insulting. Just sayin'
3. It's obvious that Jennar is town, he's just (IMO) played badly. My last post indicated that I think he's town, but preserved my arguments for posterity, made before the claim.

All that said, I think FH is the play for today. Sure, his behavior smacks more of mafia (apoligia for the mafia are a mafia tell any way you slice it, however it's "meant") than SK, but that's no garuntee, and I'm not willing to lynch random townies in the hope of getting a SK; I'd rather lynch people most likely to be mafia and hope we get an SK "by mistake" unless we've got two equally scummy candidates, one of whom is more likely to be mafia, one more likely to be SK.

vote: Flyinghawk

[mneme]

ckd: of course. But lynching mafia is better than lynching a townie. Betting everything on a 1/7 chance of hitting an SK is just dumb. Lynching someone who's got a good chance of being mafia but -might- be an SK is much better than lynching a townie who -might- be a SK.

Flyinghawk: Do you claim mafia, then? If so, we may look elsewhere for a SK. Love that OMGUS.

FH's idea that I think finding the SK is unimportant is...entertaining. So is the one that we want to ignore the mafia just because the SK is a higher priority--in fact, while lynching the SK would be a coup, lynching mafia gives us a clue to the other mafia and two days to find the SK before the town automatically loses, whereas lynching town means if the we lose 2 townies day/night 2, the mafia win.

[mneme]

Sorry for switching on paranoid mode again, but I've been reading Jennar's analysis and I can't help but wonder if White's forcing of Jennar's claim (which he was questioned about and hasn't answered yet, even though he took the liberty of one more unjustified jab at me) is not so much a last-minute check before he'd lynch an innocent, but a guaranteed way of ensuring

he

looks innocent and can still lynch him at nighttime.

Note that Mookeh has a point here -- this is not a game where the town benefits much from role claims (we do benefit from Jennar's, but it's a low probability claim), so White's forcing the claim is somewhat suspicious. That said, the way he did it doesn't ping my scumdar, and backing off to give Jennar several chances to claim isn't scummy at all; as SK, he'd have been better off a bit sloppier. White doesn't seem allied with FH, and doesn't feel like SK, so ++White.

FWIW, take it as you like, but if you believe my partial analysis in 214 was written before Jennar's claim (as it was), note that I was planning to unvote -before- hearing the claim (because as good as candidate as Jennar was before his claim, he wasn't a high enough probability candidate to be the only serious bandwagon all day; we needed/need more data, and -I- didn't really need to see a claim).

[mneme]

White is on V/LA. Shoudl be back by late this week, according to his post there.

[mneme]

Hmm.

Looking down the list:

mneme -- Me. I know I'm not mafia or SK.
Jennar -- FBI
Mookeh -- ?
joost -- ? might be mafia. backed up flyinghawk's mafia apologia. liked FH
bird1111 -- ?
curiouskarmadog -- Seems to be honestly trying to find the SK. Probably not SK. Town read
White -- ?
Flyinghawk -- Probably mafia

If one could narrow things down, lynching one of the ?'s might be good But Mookeh mostly has crappy play by edion, decent play by him, and a hate on for White. Hmm. If one takes this as read, I can trade the 1/1 shot at hitting mafia for a 1/2 shot at hitting scum (with a 1/4 shot at hitting the SK). Not sure how that affects the win odds; it's complicated.

Eliminating/identifying the other mafia would help a lot; if my guess about joost is correct, that could help.

[mneme]

ckd: I think so. We have three possibilities today:

Hit SK.
Hit Town
Hit Mafia.

If we hit the SK today, -and- FH is mafia, we've got good odds. We lynch FH, and then lynch everyone who isn't Jennars in whatever order. If we pick the wrong person to leave for last, we lose (really, if Jennars does), but that's 1/6. So 5/6 chance of a win, assuming random play.
If we hit the SK, and FH is not scum, the odds are much more complicated, but we've got a decent chance of winning -- lets see, we're down FH and the SK, so 6 players left. Chance of hitting mafia on the first day is 2/5, we then need to hit mafia in one of the next 3 days (chance: 1-(3/4*2/3*1/2=1/4) 3/4 (2/5*3/4 = 3/10), chance of hitting mafia on the second day is 3/5 (chance of missing on the first day) * 1/2; we then need to hit mafia in one of the next 2 days (1-(2/3*1/2=1/3)=2/3), so 3/10+3/10*2/3 = 5/10. I think this means our win chance IF we get the SK and FH is -not- mafia is 50%.

At this point, I get too lazy to do the analysis. It's late. But we'd need "chance of winning if we hit town today" and "chance of winning if we hit mafia today" to compare (with variations for FH being mafia vs town. Of course, this is ruling out the possiblity of him being the SK who we just think is mafia, but you have to have simplifying assumptions somewhere.

[mneme]

Joost: on night 2, the mafia wins if neither we nor the sk have killed/lynched a goon.

Also, your analysis as presented is fairly pointless, since the "odds of the town winning" are the status quo. We have 3 chances to find the SK, if we don't find the SK in one of these three chances, the town loses and either the SK or the mafia wins.

That said, your continued defense of FH is noted.

Note that the town's odds go up considerably if we correctly identify both mafia today, and then start shooting for the SK. The mafia's chance of winning drop to 0 (the sk will kill believed mafia in preference to town, so as not to lose)

so that's 1-4/5*3/4*2/3 = 3/5 chance of the town winning. Not awful, particularly if the SK makes a mistake. Correctly identifying the goons is the tricky one here, though goons are typically easier to find than SKs.

unvote

[mneme]

Also, your analysis as presented is fairly pointless, since the "odds of the town winning" are the status quo.

My analysis shows that we infact have 3 chances to do that. Which was not as obvious to me before I did that analysis as it was to you, I guess. I don't know what you mean by "since the "odds of the town winning" are the status quo".

You seemed to talk about our chance of finding the SK randomly as not-so-good. Which may be true, if we don't manage to eliminate some probable-mafia. The problem is, "randomly" (or rather, using deduction but without certainty) trying to find the SK is our -only- way of winning, now that the FBI has gone out into the opening.

Also, it's possible the SK will decide they're better off trying to hit mafia night 1 rather than the FBI agent, as they only have two tries before they lose. (Please, please, nobody calculate odds on this publicly without discussion. This is the SK's problem, though, of course, we benefit if we can convince the sk to go shooting for mafia rather than the fbi)

Note that the town's odds go up considerably if we correctly identify both mafia today, and then start shooting for the SK. The mafia's chance of winning drop to 0 (the sk will kill believed mafia in preference to town, so as not to lose)

Are you saying, we identify them and let them live then try to lynch the SK?

Did you unvote because you are trying to lynch the SK now?

Yes, if we identify them and then try to lynch the sk rather than mafia.

I unvoted because I'm considering the numbers and am neither committed to lynching someone not suspected of being mafia nor of lynching flyinghawk on suspision of him being SK -or- mafia.

Also, worth comparison are odds of the town winning if FH/mafia is lynched today (which gives us a basis for comparison against the other possiblities); key in this is our confidence that FH -is- mafia rather than townie or SK.

[mneme]

Therefor, why would the SK take such a risk to HELP the town, who are against him anyways?

Because if you're not mafia, the SK can lose by killing Jennar tonight and you tomorrow night. The SK loses to the mafia on a tie, or even on a 2v2 tie. The mafia need not lynch the SK to win; the SK -must- kill both mafia to win.

Meanwhile, Jennar only has a 1/6 chance of finding the SK tonight, and otherwise, just improves our odds of finding the SK a bit.

And...that's the last I'm going to talk about this today.

Agreed that FH is as close to confirmed mafia as we can get without killing him.

We've already established that a mislynch doesn't necessarily screw us. we can mislynch twice and still win, if we get the SK on the third try and the SK gets mafia on night 2.

FOS: Mookeh

What do you mean by "has remained firmly outside of our lynching scope?"

[mneme]

If Jennar were the SK, claiming FBI would be an auto-loss.

The real FBI claims, Jennar gets lynched. Or we lose our minds and lynch the real FBI instead, and lynch Jennar on Day 2.

That said, crossing his other comments and the "townsperson" under his name, I'm getting somewhat townie vibes from kuribo. (of course, my towndar lies to me, so hey). That said, assuming there's something suspicious about CKD just because he dueled with (99% FBI) Jennar is crapalicious; Jennar has no special knowledge, so people who duel with him are as likely to be scum as anyone else who's not-Jennar.

Similarly, while one can make arguments about White, well, of -course- he forced Jennar to claim while keeping his vote off him. That's how it's done; you can't force a claim when you're on the wagon, because you can't threaten to hammer. Instead, a claim can only be forced by someone not on the wagon when the claim is close; the palatable threat is that they will vote (and, usually, hammer).

So, about kurbito, I don't like much of what he says, but I think his heart may be in the right place. Or, you know, not.

We've already established that a mislynch doesn't necessarily screw us. we can mislynch twice and still win, if we get the SK on the third try and the SK gets mafia on night 2.

A mislynch severely increases the risks of us being screwed, so I stand by my previous post.

Fascinating. Missing the point, though, which is that faced with a near-certain mafia (FH) and a chance of mislynching on trying to hit the SK, we -must- do the latter; the SK will take care of suspected mafia for us if we miss him or her twice, giving us a chance, but we only have three shots to catch the SK before it's game over and either the mafia or the SK have won.

So while we don't want to mislynch, risking one is the best option.

What I mean with 'outside the lynching scope' is that from looking at the posts of 'the usual suspects' - those that have been marked with an '?' in the calculations - I get a feeling we're underestimating at least one scum.

This is a little odd, and seems much like you're posting to try to seem useful without thinking things thorugh.
The people I've been keeping off my list are: myself (I know I'm town), Jennar (99%+ FBI), FH (because I'm pretty sure he's mafia) and CKD (most town of remaining players). The possible SK/scum are everyone else, so if you're thinking my list, you're either saying you think I'm scum (unlikley, in this case, since I'm on several other people's lists for pushing FH for a while before he used the "don't lynch me just because I look like mafia" defense) or CKD (which looks a lot like a Too Townie argument to me).

[mneme]

Just because no one counter-claimed doesn't mean that Jennar is the FBI Agent, the real agent would have plenty of reason not to counterclaim, especially with us not having a doctor.

Uh...no.

You've adequately explained why a false FBI agent would only be a SK, as this would be a very bad claim for the Mafia.

Therefore, there would be -no- reason for the real FBI agent not to counterclaim, as doing so would guarantee a two-day SK kill. (moreover, since a claim would either remove night kills from the game or remove the counter-claimer, the question of doctors is moot). Moreover, you can win if your'e dead, and the game clearly gives an advantage to a day 1 counterclaim of scum.

That said, is there anything you want to tell us here?

[mneme]

Probably. He's not been back to the site since mid-October.

Joost, of -course- the mafia won't claim FBI. 1, the real FBI will come out and smoke them. 2, the real SK will kill them even if the FBI doesn't out them. So they simply don't help their side by claiming FBI; they do much better, statistically, by claiming townie.

White's a possiblilty, but generally was playing well when he was here, so I'm looking at Joost or kuribo for the SK.

[mneme]

Mookeh: or you, actually. Skipped over you when running down the list.

I'm not a suspect (for me) because I know I'm not the SK.
ckd isn't because he's the consistently strongest scumhunter this game (and I have to eliminate someone).
Jennar isn't because he's almost certainly the FBI
Flyinghawk isn't because he's almost certainly mafia.
White isn't because, again, he's played a fairly agressive game, moreso than I'd expect from the SK.

[mneme]

Mookeh++: goodposting

Obviously, ones' division of players into groups is somewhat arbitrary, past the "this person has a solid claim" or "this person has tacitly admitted to being scum". I'm much more sure of FH and Jennar than any other player in the game.

That said, to narrow things down from 5 to 1, we need -some- analysis, and while "too good to be the SK is a logical falacy, it -is- true that someone playing as scum will often be slightly less "into" the day game than someone playing as town, and as was mentioned here early, the SK least of all (since unlike most games, where the mafia game is -mostly- during the day and a little at night, here it's entirely during the day). Basically, -if- players can be identified via day posts as mafia vs sk vs town, it's because the mafia have a day bias, whereas the sk is likely to put less attention into the day than the other players. If.

And yeah, part of this is trying to identify FH's scumbuddy, assuming he's mafia. I'd started that before things got quiet -- I think my best guess was Joost, based on his defenses of FH at several points earlier, but that's half guess.

At the moment, I think I'm favoring kuribo for SK; he's one of the "maybe you could lynch the FBI" people, which I find suspicious, he's voted FH, and I don't like his analysis much. But this is pretty weak.

[mneme]

kuribo: It's called "building a case". Deal. When you get down to it, who we lynch today is going to be based on whom we can build a best case on of being the SK.

Re Jennar: mis-analysis can be a scum-sign. As I mentioned in 352, it's a really weak scum-sign, but I don't see better right now. Re your voting FH -- that's a counter-indication on you being mafia, not a scum-sign per-se (but in terms of shooting for the SK, it's significant).

[mneme]

Yeah, please prod me. I'm not really paying attention.

Oh, wait. Thanks, FlameAxe.

White's intended week of absence has turned into a month, so yeah, he needs repalcing in all his games.

[mneme]

I must say you guys completly invalidate the discussion when you say "just for discussion", because it basically tells the scum "I don't really mean it, don't worry."

QFT

[mneme]

Personally? I'm happy to punish people who treat the random stage as a joke.

This is terrible.

Playing falsely? Yes. Punishing people for playing falsely? No.

No part of this game is a joke (well, except the jokes); I'm quite serious about this point. (in fact, you make my point earlier -- that your actions have to look genuine to have the desired informative effect).

Oh, and in terms of practicing what I preach... vote: edion0

This is a shameless wagon. I miss where this is "preached"

I'd previously, IIRC, been complaining about Edion's behavior. Pushing someone's bandwagon without being on it is scummy.

But his contradictions (he actually both said "scum will avoid voting for partners" and "scum will attack partners just like everyone else"??) are actually a strong scumtell

This is BS, as both scenarios are correct. Scum will avoid it, however, sometimes they will attack partners. That is what you're trying to prove with all your "bandwagons" is it not?

Doesn't excuse the contradition. Anyway, you're making my argument; your predicesor's argument was a big WIFOM that seemed to claim that town and scum will always act exactly the same (except that somehow, magically, this will favor scum). And, in fact, it -is- a contradiction; in fact, scum must choose between behaving exactly like town (not that that's easy) and trying to manipulate the town into not lynching their buddies (which can get them caught, but can also win them games).

Flyinghawk + Kuribo/bird = mafia Mneme = SK

Vote mneme

You might want to reconsider this.

(for starters, I'm not scum).

And ckd? I'm not trying to buddy up to you; I just don't think you're a great lynch for today.

[mneme]

CKD is town.

Obvobv buddy tactic there mneme.

*laugh*

Oman, please stop acting like scum. I know you're town, but it's very confusing!

Near as I can tell, the biggest reason there's strong suspision of me being the SK is because I spent a lot of time early today trying to hunt mafia.

This is, FWIW, a crap reason. Of -course- I spent a lot of time hunting mafia -- they're easier to catch, and while it's important to -lynch- the SK today if we can, it's very important to -find- at least one mafia; if we don't find any mafia by the second nightkill (or our third lynch), the town loses. My pattern today -- and check me on this, was to vigourously pursue mafia up to the point where FH used "don't lynch me as mafia; you should be looking for the SK" defense (and FH, don't backpedal now; you were doing so well!). At that point, I switched to looking for the SK -- because that's the point where finding the Sk became more important.

Kuribo, I haven't you "accused you of voting FH". Please learn to fubarring read. You (bird1111) -did- vote FH -- in post 222. This is an indicator that you're probably not mafia with FH, but not a sign that you're scum per se. -if- you're scum, you're probably the SK, but Bird's vote isn't a scumtell.

Re "calculation" -- all good players play with calculation. Most play with calculation and passion. The difference between town and scum is that town use their calculation to try to smoke out scum; scum use it to try to hide scum-buddies, get innocents lynched, and "look like town".

It's looking like I'm going to get voted off -- so presuming that, (and knowing what the nightkill is likely to be), we need to look at who else is a good possiblity. Kuribo's strong; Mookeh is weak (he's trying to hard to find scum to be scum himself, I think); could see elmo, kuribo, or lowprob ckd (the problem with good players is...)

[mneme]

Distancing and bussing happens -- but it's not the default case. Particularly for weaker players, who IMEX are much less likely to distance well.

Moreover, in this game, the mafia throwing one another under a bus is much less of a good idea than in many other games. And finally -- I don't think bird1111 was bussing in 222. So no, I don't think kuribo is mafia with FH.

[mneme]

Oman's summary of the evidence against FH is spot on. FH, most of that evidence was there -before- we started accusing you of admitting; your refusal to defend in any way aside from claiming that we should be hunting the SK instead was indicative. And yes, we're still better off lynching mafia than lynching a townie, by a fair margin -- but an exposed mafioso makes a big difference.

Mookeh, I tend to go away for the weekend (at least from MS. JDodge's play is awful, but interesting.

And...there's no reason for me to have repeated the evidence against Oman/FH aside from the truth or WIFOM; I clearly couldn't expect to get him lynched without a counterclaim (the closest that got to that were Mookeh and Kuribo).

[mneme]

FH, as I've mentioned quite a number of times, the mafia are only a lesser threat at the moment because we've figured out you're mafia. Otherwise, they cause the game to end on day 3 if none of them have been eliminated yet, whereas the SK cannot win until night 3, or even night 4 if we no-lynch on day 3.

Anyway, I'm not interested in FH, since I'm pretty convinced he's mafia and we don't want to lynch mafia today (and not because 'they're not the real threat', if you please).

For me, I think it's between Mookeh and JDodge at the moment.

[mneme]

MOD: PLEASE UPDATE THE FIRST POST WITH CURRENT REPLACEMENTS!

FH: you're already in a hole. Stop digging.

Sitting back isn't getting us anywhere. I'm not sure who I want to lynch, but as it's not YT, not Oman, not CKD, not Flyinghawk (today) and not joost (today), I'll have to

vote: kuribo

as my best guess for the SK (slightly above Jdodge and Mookeh).

[mneme]

JDodge: I'm wondering that too. I'm not the SK. I'm not even scum.

[mneme]

Oh, good.

FWIW, I'm convinced that Joost, Mookeh, and Jdodge -aren't- the SK. If they were, they'd have hammered already; there's no good reason not to (from evil's POV).

That means the SK is among: Flyinghawk, Kuribo, and CKD.

FH is clearly not the SK. He's mafia, and you can't be both.

Which means the SK is one of Kuribo and CKD. And Joost, I suppose, since his absence has meant he didn't get much of a chance to hammer.

I'm actually begining to wonder if it might be CKD, despite his excellent play. Bad play is a mafia signifier, but it's far from the only one, and certainly one of -my- flaws as a player is to bias away from the good players (though better that than the inverse flaw, to bias toward people for playing the game well).

Work with me, people. Because if I'm not the SK (and I'm not), we're still going to need to identify the SK tomorrow, or day 3 at the latest, or the game is over.

[mneme]

kuribo: there is no argument I can make that I'm not the SK that isn't WIFOM, especially since there are no good arguments against me to demolish So, I'm doing more productive things, like trying to plan for tomorrow and push.

There's no good reason for an SK not to hammer in this kind of situation -- sure, they're rather be on the lynch earlier, but then, that's my presumption. And the second statement falls naturally from the first; if one assumes the SK will tend to be on a (sk-finding) mislynch that takes a long time to finish, then those on the bandwagon are more likely sks (assuming they aren't, like fh and oman, more likely to have some other role.

And kuribo, try not to talk about anyone else's opinion. That's why you claim to think I'm scum, not why oman, fh, and ckd do -- actually, I'm pretty sure the reason you're voting me is because you think you can make the accusation stick, since you're the sk if ckd isn't.

Me? I'm actually trying to find scum, which means attacking everybody (Even the "untouchable" ckd) and seeing what sticks . I've already found us a mafia; working on the SK. Of course you're comfortable; every day you're not lynched is a good day.

CKD's reaction is very interesting and defensive. Kuribo's is much more telling, though.

Talking about oman's investigation does slightly reduce the chance of him being nightkilled -- possibly not that much, though. Might be a death sentence for the target unless they're the SK, though.

[mneme]

*sigh*. Good game.

But I -told- you kuribo wasn't mafia -- his interaction with FH before we smoked FH out were potentially indicative of SK, but definitely -not- mafia!

[mneme]

Jenner: er, what?

[mneme]

Yup. You guys got the idea that I was scum early and wouldn't let it go -- I even twigged to ckd=scum before I got lynchedo ut.

[mneme]

Yes. I used "My theoretical enemy might be my -actual- enemy" which is often a useful (but not reliable) counter-principle to the more usual agg=town one.