Open 30 - Fire and Ice (Game Over!) - before 470

[MrBuddyLee]

vote: Autumn

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote Mert, FOS xyzzy

[MrBuddyLee]

Awkward discussion, possible distancing.

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote Mert

for that avatar.

[MrBuddyLee]

For god's sake, it's

pulsating

.

confirm vote

[MrBuddyLee]

vote: xyzzy

to get a wagon going quickly. This is not an indication of intent to lynch.

That is 6. If anyone else votes him, it's a lynch. So be careful, and discuss.

[MrBuddyLee]

"I'm going to put this guy at Lynch -1, but I don't have an intent to lynch. If he gets lynched, it's someone else's fault."

No, I have faith in this town not to do that. And it'd be 2nd-most my fault if it in fact did happen.

You can thank me tomorrow for giving you something to actually analyze from this terribly short day--if we're short on time, things have to happen quickly, and voila, they are.

vote: Crub

for quick protection of xyzzy.

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote: LML

for overly strident and disproportionate attack on CTD. I smell gamesmanship.

I will definitely be back before deadline.

[MrBuddyLee]

mFOS: xyzzy.

Two things:

1)

Glrok's defense is getting more unusual as the minutes pass. He has a pretty consistent style, and this isn't it.

This is the kind of loose comment scum design to avoid pinning themselves down on specifics while loosely encouraging others to scan the victim's posts for relative meta scumminess.

2) He referred to someone's question earlier as "a trap", indicative of a defensive mindset.

[MrBuddyLee]

Check your nose. When have you ever known me to not be stident and disproportionate?

I've never played a full game with you. I have seen you be strident, but I do feel you took a stab at cooking a case on CTD there. Perhaps ok fodder for D1 conversation, but it felt like you were willing to follow through on it.

So Glork's more likely to be scum than CTD now?

[MrBuddyLee]

I'd honestly wager one Fire and one Ice from that group of three.

Anybody care to take me up on that offer?

Why not two fire or two ice?

unvote, vote: Glork

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote

Glork, the game needed ACTION, and fast. Putting someone at L-2 wasn't enough. I needed to place that vote to serve as a catalyst for immediate action--an unvote by someone, a hammer by someone, several immediate FOSes and votes on others. You can argue the vote was unnecessary, and I'd agree-yes, in a longer game it'd have been unnecessary.

vote: xyzzy

for the defensive mindset that had him calling a simple request a trap.

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork, why the HELL would you think xyzzy was town this game? Read his posts. And did you even bother for an instant to analyze the main reason I voted for him--the tone of his "it's a trap" comment?

Scum fear traps, not town... I think it's a legit slip by scum.

Any sentiment that I should be lynched for moving my vote around is retarded. Rapid application of pressure at this point is essential to gaining information. Each of my moves has made sense at the time. Feel free to refute.

[MrBuddyLee]

Also, in a game of 12 with 2 2-man scumteams, why would you see any difficulty running scum OR town up to L-1 like xyzzy was? I think your insinuation that he's most likely town is pure bluster.

[MrBuddyLee]

Crub and LML, please elaborate on your votes for me in light of the explanations given for my actions. I think I'm a terrible play today, obviously, and that your votes are in an inappropriate place.

[MrBuddyLee]

It wasn't bad bad to put someone at L-1 in that scenario. I believe at the time it was 80 hours to deadline and we needed to accelerate the usual process of action and reaction. No time for pattycake.

[MrBuddyLee]

Loudmouth, unhand me you cad. I'm town. (Duh)

[MrBuddyLee]

You're jumpy..

Why shouldn't town be jumpy? If you kill one off, it'll most likely be four scum, five town remaining tomorrow morning, with no opportunity for cross-kills.

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork, on page two, xyzzy's wagon was up to 5. And you actually think this:

I'd pick you. Asking me to answer a question like that with no information fells like a trap.

is a townish response to this:

Xyzzy, if you had to pick

one

person on your wagon as scum right now, who do you think you'd pick based on the little we've seen?

Please explain to me how that question could be a trap. One scenario would do, two is preferable. Again, you're blustering.

[MrBuddyLee]

LmL
Sefer
Mert
CTD
Vendagoat

Glork, why are you asking me for opinions of so many people who haven't done jack shit? Trying to look diligent?

Considering everyone's hunting scum, the main way to tell scum from town would be to look for protection of a partner. Other than that, I suppose some people just naturally play more carelessly as scum because of the "anyone will do" lynch sentiment, but I don't think that's a huge tell to look for in this game due to the mechanic.

Mert's lying a little too low... he says he's methodical and granted we don't have much to work with today, but it looks like he's making the minimal effort to get by. His peg as xyzzy as today's best lynch is probably correct.

I didn't have a problem with Sefer pegging a Glork-xyzzy scumpair before you claimed doc. Your hyperventilation in defense of xyzzy is notable, particularly because ya:

Aversion to lynch-1 is for chumps and sissies.

and then ya

FOS: MBL "I'm going to put this guy at Lynch -1, but I don't have an intent to lynch. If he gets lynched, it's someone else's fault."

and ya:

lo and behold, we find Xyzzy at L-1 a mere three days before deadline.

with a pinch of:

FoS: MBL/Crub for the timing and manner in which they joined the Xyzzy-wagon.

So yeah, Sefer has undercontributed, but his read on you+xyzzy wasn't so bad.

CTD has way undercontributed and most of it is defensive. Strong possibility of scum there.

Goat-- a bit sally shying away from an L-2 vote but then again, with sissies like you guys running me up for my L-1 vote I suppose I can understand the hesitation. Makes a few decent points, doesn't really reek of scum.

GLork--uncounterclaimed doc who

[choice words about the deterioration of Glork's scumhunting skills redacted]

LML--I'll need some time on this. I'll also try to hit the other 5 players asap in case I get strung up you'll have that to go on tomorrow.

[MrBuddyLee]

Crub's probably town. Just a guess from the tone.

[MrBuddyLee]

mneme looks scuzzy. Glork, why didn't you ask me my opinion of him? I really shouldn't waste time asking you questions if you're the doc, but you just irk me this game, so w-e.

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork, seriously, you suck.

[MrBuddyLee]

I believe xyzzy has 4. You wouldn't need to switch to me to guarantee a lynch, But more importantly, you should nail scum, not rush for a convenient lynch.

[MrBuddyLee]

discerning

Wrong word, teach You are correct though that I am indeed discerning.

[MrBuddyLee]

Stewie's play has been entirely defensive, and just about no scumhunting there. Significantly likely scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

Because I don't think that two teammates would be that blatant in wagoning Xyzzy the way they did. However, it would seem perfectly ripe for one member of each team to jump onto Xyzzy the way they did.

This is your reasoning for why he's unlikely scum? That's it?

[MrBuddyLee]

Well, either our fire dude knows an Ice Mafia for certain or Glork has a likely innocent. Fire guy, vote away with confidence and we shall follow.

[MrBuddyLee]

FOS: LML

. It's obvious why the scum didn't target glork -- he's too obvious a target for both, and if both target him, they both lose their kills. Optimal play is to trick the town into lynching our doc (fat chance), or a random kill of glork vs someone else -- with a < 50% chance of hitting glork to reduce the chance of kill nullification. Regardless, we have -plenty- of time to worry about Glork as doctor -- since even if he is scum, he gives us a garunteed scum lynch later in the game via a counterclaim -- when the time is right, the "real" doctor can counterclaim, and we can lynch both in whatever order makes sense until we get a scum.

This sounds like the words of a man who thought about this quite a bit last night.

Though...if LML is the last Fire mafia, I could see him having tried to kill Glork, failed, and now knowing Glork is Ice. But that's a thin reed upon which to hang a man, much less two.

That doesn't leave many possibilities for Doc at this point, though if Glork's not doc the actual one could be playing craftily.

vote: mneme

[MrBuddyLee]

Mneme, post something. Your looking more and more scummy to me every moment you don't post.

mFOS: goat

This, only six hours into the day, and nighttime hours to boot? Looks like a poorly executed calculated distancing strategy. Next time, give your scumpartner at least 24 hours before calling him out for not posting. (edit: it's actually parroting of AE, not sure if that changes things)

And hmm, followed up by:

Therefore,

vote: Vendagoat.

Hey, goat -- who'd you try to kill last night? Maybe they're Ice!

Could these guys really be that sloppy at distancing?

How does goat-mneme sound as Ice?

Sorry, but I'm just not buying what you're vending.

This made me notice the goat avatar, which is fantastic. Kudos, even though you're scum.

[MrBuddyLee]

Hey mneme, I'm sure you're god's gift to mafia, but how am I to know that considering you posted half as much content D1 as you have in fifteen hours today?

What's the motivator? Did your partner kick you in the nuts and remind you that you're bound to attract suspicion if you lurk?

[MrBuddyLee]

And yes, I did note that your post had substance and context behind the accusation, which is why I didn't go after you for it, Autumn. Goat's was an ill-advised and unsuccessful attempt at parroting.

[MrBuddyLee]

Glork protected me last night, by the way, duh. I was mercilessly run up to lynchable, and in a nonsensical manner, and Glork theorized that's likely to mean scum from both teams were on me. If I was fire scum who lynched my partner the way xyzzy went down, I should be shot for sedition. Fire scum was likely to target me as possible Ice for nailing their partner, but it was a terrible choice considering I was a likely doc protect. Ice is obviously craftier scum, going after a player who was unlikely to be protected. Ice is going to let town do the dirty work for them and hope to outlast us.

The good news is, there are lots of good scumhunters on the job, and I predict this game will end well.

[MrBuddyLee]

/bow

[MrBuddyLee]

Autumn is by far our most likely scum.

mFOS: Lee for protecting

. It's possible that Glork protected her, but can we afford to take that chance?

I think we should analyze the likelihood that she was protected and move forward from there.

[MrBuddyLee]

Also relevant is the likelihood that V lied in his final post. I see no incentive for him to lie. It's odd that Autumn wouldn't evaluate the likelihood of such a lie when forwarding it as a possibility.

[MrBuddyLee]

I am not the doc. But, still, Glork... I don't think you are either.

But, for the record, I

do

think Glork is the doctor. I don't like the people who are still suspecting Glork.

But no FOS or vote of LML from Autumn. Instead, a defense of him as unlikely Fire mafia:

Do you disagree with my point that LmL unvoted MrBuddyLee, who had reached the necessary votes first and thus would be the deadline lynch unless someone placed an additional vote on XYZ, which is what really allowed us to lynch XYZ (he did gain an additional vote, from Glork who said he was doing it pretty much solely to secure a lynch, but Glork was on MrBuddyLee, so I doubt he would have removed his vote had MrBuddyLee still been the leader)? And that that didn't really feel like a move a partner would make, because there was no point in doing it, as staying on MBL wouldn't look too suspicious even if he came up town, and he didn't win any good grace by actually voting XYZ?

It's quite possible LoudmouthLee is Ice mafia, but I really don't see him as being XYZ's surviving partner.

Infallibly correct, however an odd choice of "protection" considering LML wasn't particularly under attack at the time.

Fitting neatly into the picture of "if we kill Fire and then subtly attack each other there's no way we both get lynched in the next three days":

Finally,

FoS: AutumnEvenings

. She may be Ice Mafia and was targeted last night. This also fits the fact that from what I have seen, AE is a fairly typical N1 kill. She's eloquent and dangerous. With the opening FoS's levvied on her, I believe that she could be ice mafia and the one of her earlier FoSers could be Fire Mafia.

Lee likes to be right early, and he's merciless about busing partners. If he's scum with Autumn, his warnings today not to rush to judgment would have to be WIFOM--attempts to make him look like cautious town.

Also, it'd do everyone good to read Vendagoat's posts yesterday to see if he was hinting at his kill target. And then it'd be good to read possible ice-scum's posts to see if they're conveniently ignoring Vendagoat's post history while speculating about who he targeted N1.

[MrBuddyLee]

Edit by way of post:

And also, MrBuddyLee, if he was telling the truth about targeting me, why did he claim to have targeted me

in the same post where he self-hammered

, thus denying Glork the opportunity to say who he'd protected?

Because he was angry and not thinking straight. He'd already indicated he didn't want to play on a site where humor's discouraged, and he was pissy about people being on his tail. He lost his cool, and fortunately didn't ruin the game for any scumpartners of his or he'd have earned himself a site suspension. Voting himself was dumb, and he took a potshot at who he thought remaining scum were while forgetting that we needed doc info to help us clear up the picture.

[MrBuddyLee]

Question to everyone: if you were the doc, who would you have protected N1?

[MrBuddyLee]

I am still warily suspicious of you, MBL.

As you should be if you're town, and as you'd fake if you're scum. Doesn't really tell us much.

[MrBuddyLee]

everyone had a reason to kill Glork, since he was a claimed doc and possessed information which might have cleared me

But I can't evaluate the likelihood of him lying, since for me it depends entirely on how likely Glork was to protect me

Sure you're FOSing the right person, Lee?

[MrBuddyLee]

LML, why am I scummy again?

[MrBuddyLee]

My gut tells me Autumn and Lee are the scum. If I die tonight, keep that in mind.

[MrBuddyLee]

Nope. You've tried to become the tipping point on Xyzzy, who I firmly believe is pro-town

*snickers*

I find it likely that our chivalrous Glork protected Autumn. Because he's too mulish to have protected me, the obvious and correct choice.

Evaluating Autumn independent of that fact, I don't understand why she's voting mneme instead of LML. Her cases against the two are quite different and Lee's looks more incriminating to me. I also don't read either of her analyses and really get the sense she strongly feels either of her targets is scum. "nothing protown about him" is somewhat weak of a case, and it's the same thing she said about Stewie and mneme.

Autumn, I'm going to gamble that Glork targeted you AND that your Iciness also protected you from the evil Goatseller. I'll check the thread again in the morning to see if you have a compelling clarification of why you're voting mneme and not LML.

I'm suspicious of Lee--he claims to find me significantly scummy even though he unvoted me at the end of D1--I'm guessing he had a read then that I was town and decided to go after a crosslynch instead.

[MrBuddyLee]

unvote, vote: Autumn

[MrBuddyLee]

Also, Lee's reasoning for voting mneme is thin and dreadful. I have a hunch that if we lynch all three of them we'll win, and at this point I'd almost rather lynch LML first for his overt sleaziness.

[MrBuddyLee]

maybe someone who is actually scum will become more apparent

This statement almost seems to assume Autumn's township.

FOS: Crub

[MrBuddyLee]

woot. Thanks Guardian, well-run game!