Mini 458 - Game over!

[Numenorean7]

/Confirm

Hi everyone! I'll give this thread a read-through and share my thoughts shortly.

First of all, it looks like I'm on an L-1 wagon, so I'll start with an

Unvote

If the guy has been acting really scummy I may put my vote back on, but if someone hammers, I don't want to be on the lynch without knowing anything about the situation.

Expect more from me shortly!

[Numenorean7]

OK, finished my reading. First of all, I wasn't on an L-1 wagon after all: didn't see Adel's unvote.

I believe in Player by Player analyses, so here goes (in alphabetical order):

Adel

Love his avatar, like his posts. He's a bit paranoid for my taste, but that's just my personal opinion, not a scumtell. After all, being paranoid is what makes a good scumhunter! I agree with his opinions on lurking. No irrationality, brings up good points, asks good questions. Townie points for you.

carrotcake=HungryJoe

Nothing much here. I don't like carrotcake's including no-lynch in the original die roll, but other than that she was pretty much absent. HungryJoe has been nicely active since he replaced in, and has made some pretty sound comments, particularly about the pickem issue. A bit too early to tell.

curiouskarmadog=Tromboner

Again, a lurking player recently replaced. Tromboner was acting really weird: voting no-lynch, voting molestargazer just because of the bandwagon, then disappearing. curiouskarmadog hasn't posted much, and didn't say much. Voting J-man because he "has some power"?? Unvoting and then jumping on a bandwagon? Don't like this player much at all.

DanMonkey

DIE, SCUM LURKER!!!!!! Oh wait, that's me.

dylan41985

Extreme statements on no evidence, popping in with a one-line (sometimes only one-word) post, taking newbieness as an excuse, then a big post saying basically, "lurking is my playstyle." I really don't like his posts, but I don't think he's scum, just an annoying person. But scumpoints to you all the same.

fak=NabakovNabakov

Another lurker. (the plague of this game, eh? Poor Per, his first game needs 4 replacements before N1) I like NN's opening of a new front on MoS, but again, not much going on here. Too early for much of an opinion.

J-man

*grimaces* Don't like his playstyle. Bad grammar, bad spelling, unreadable, etc. I just replaced into another game he's in, though, and he's acting like this there too. Perhaps both places he's scum and it's all an act, but it seems unlikely. I think this is just another annoying newbie townie who hasn't quite got the hang of the game, and posts like he's in a chatroom. I'm leaning towards believing his vanilla-claim.

Kate

Kate has been very unpleasent. Refuses to learn MafiaScum terminology and insults us for doing so. Rather hostile. Again, perhaps just playstyle, but I have a negative intuition on her.

Mastermind of Sin

He brought up an interesting inconsistency in pickemgenius' play. He's been pretty active. No irrationality, brings up good points, asks good questions. Townie points for you.

molestargazer

Cute avatar, strikes me as a likeable person. He's been active, but what he did post had some nice content. I'd like to see more of him, but what I've seen looks pro-town.

pickemgenius

He started out pretty well, but he's been going downhill lately. Overdefensive, hostile. He got jumped on because of his implied suggestion that someone else hammer J-man. I don't think it's as much of a big deal as MoS seems to, but it's suspicious nonetheless.

ThAdmiral

I like this guy. He's been very logical and clear-headed. I'd like a bit more content from him, but he's earned protown points from me.

I wonder: did all the scum plan to lurk and be replaced together? Not DanMonkey of course, but perhaps carrotcake, tromboner, and fak conspired to be replaced so that there wouldn't be enough evidence against them until after D1. Kinda far-fetched, but I thought I'd mention it.

In conclusion, here's my scumorder:
curiouskarmadog
Kate
pickemgenius
dylan41985
J-man
carrotcake
NabakovNabakov
molestargazer
MoS
Adel
ThAdmiral
Numenorean7

Vote: curiouskarmadog

Tromboner was seriously scummy in my view, and you haven't done anything to improve your town image in my eyes.

FoS: Kate, pickemgenius

Appeal to learn better style: dylan, J-man

[Numenorean7]

Way to go Adel! 10/10 points for effort! It's great that you take the game so seriously. The graphic is kinda... dazing.

Offline Friday-Sunday of this week. See Va/LA thread

We'll miss you.
On this topic, I'll be out of town next week, but I should have Internet access so I hope it won't affect my posting much.

talking about ongoing games is a no-no, am I right?

In some circumstances, yes. It seems to be OK purely for metagaming purposes, if you don't cite the game specifically. I think the rule is mostly to protect the game you're talking about. The main problem is revealing one's role or other sensitive information about the game in question. At least that's how I see it.

@Numen: I definitely think we should give CKD a chance before we start voting him. You seem fond of writing scummy behavior off to newbiness, so why doesn't Tromboner get the same treatment as Dylan or J-Man?

They all trike me as newbie, but J-man and Dylan's behavior seem a bit like newbie town, wheras Tromboner's seems more like newbie scum. Of course, I'm not dismissing J-man and Dylan by any means, but they have gotten more than their fair share of attention, and I'm trying to get the town to broaden its horizons.

Speaking of broadening horizons, Adel's graphic points out something interesting about ThAdmiral. He hasn't done anything besides voting J-man and Dylan. He hasn't done a whole lot in the discussion either, with fairly short posts often reiterating stuff that has been said already. Is he lurking in plain sight?

considering I am relatively new, is it bad to think about this game while trying to sleep?

Good for the game, bad for your sleep.

Also keeping an eye on the MoS and Pick contest….guess we will have to wait till Pick gets back for that to continue.

I am also looking foward to seeing that continue. MoS seems to be gone as well.

I'm considering moving my vote to Kate. curiouskarmadog is looking a little better: he hasn't panicked under suspicion, for one thing. But Kate is looking worse and worse. I agree with Adel, her next reply should be interesting.

I refuse to learn mafiascum terminology, and insult you? Isn't that FoSing? I may be mistaken, but I don't recall refusing or insulting about anything.

Hmm... Let's see...

by the way, with all the "WIFOM" and "BM" stuff, can you guys stop talking like idiots, 'cuz I can't understand anything that's going on when you guys talk like that...

I've only played in one other game, and WIFOM is used alot, however I still don't know what it means or any of the other crap you guys say

ok, i read wat WIFOM means, ... but still don't really know what the heck anyone's talking about

So are you saying i wrote this when i was drunk or something?

IMHO, this is refusing to learn terminology and insulting those who do, plus being overly irritable.

[Numenorean7]

I guess you do have a fair objection there. No one ever tried to explain WIFOM to you. I'm not really happy with the Wiki article. The beginning especially is rather unclear.

Here's an example of a WIFOM situation:

Scum are trying to decide who to night-kill. There is one player (call him X) who was onto one of the scum (call him Y), and had been pushing for his lynch. The scum don't want Y lynched, so they decide to get rid of X.
"But wait," one of them says, "If we kill X, everyone will know that Y is one of us, and he'll be lynched."
"Ah, yes," another one says, "But this town is pretty tricky. They'll see that X died and think that Y is an innocent townie we're trying to frame. Killing X would be the ideal way to defend Y."

So now answer this question. If the scum kill X, would a townie see Y as more likely or less likely to be scum because of it? In the end, it gives no meaningful information about Y's alignment. Herein lies the WIFOM dilemma. A phenomenon leads to a conclusion, but this conclusion would have been foreseen, so the opposite must be true, and so on ad infinitum.

Understand?

[Numenorean7]

Hi, MoS. Welcome back. I'd like to hear your thoughts on curiouskarmadog and Kate.

[Numenorean7]

Well, with Pick moving his vote to dylan we are indeed one away. Not sure why he is telling us to proceed with caution, when Pick a.) thinks Dylan is scum and b.) Proceeds to go post by post why Dylan is scummy.

I believe he was just making sure no one hammered without realizing it.

I'm not back yet, but I got the chance to post. Once I'm dead and you all discover that I'm innocent...please lynch Kate, molestargazer, and MasterMind of Sin.

Thanks, I really appreciate it. Although I doubt you'll do it since you aren't listening now.

This is a really weird post. Why in the world do you want us to lynch these 3? They seem the most scummy to you? If you really are protown, you wouldn't just want us to go through a list. You would say something like, "before I die, I just wanted to FoS Kate, molestargazer, and MoS. When I'm confirmed town, you'll know these are honest suspicions and not scum deflecting." I would love to vote you, but it would be a lynch vote. You are definitely a newbie, but I'm not sure enough you're newbie

scum

to drop the hammer. If someone else does, though, I wouldn't blame them. I know how HungryJoe feels.

There hasn't been much going on except accusations of Dylan. But I have a few comments about curiouskarmadog:

Curious says that J-man has power in post 292: "I think he has got some power. Town or mafia power I just don’t know yet." Now he says about Dylan, "If he had any power, he would at least try a little harder." Why does J-man have power and Dylan not? And given this, why is Curious now voting J-man?
This J-man vote was at the command of N-N. I don't like this at all.

I agree with the first part of this statement. However, even if he is the town idiot, he is still the town, which helps our odds. I am adamant about who I think are the scum, and Dylan just does not fit into my suspicions. Unless someone sees a Dylan-J-man-Kate connection. (how many mafia are the suppose to be in this game, sorry I can find that post, I think it is 3-4?) I do not have enough information to vote for him, much less cast that last vote to hang him. The only information I can deduce from hanging him (provided that he is the town idiot) is to check who pushed to vote him and who actually voted (which would indeed help my J-man/Kate theory)…but I cant vote someone I think is an idiot town to help that theory…

I think he does not care if he stays in this game or not. I think given his apparent immaturity that if he had any power (town or mafia) he would at least try a little harder.

So I will take Pick's reccomendation and show caution.

The reasoning is fine, but it strikes me this way: Curious is scum making a half-hearted defense of dylan. He's pretty sure that there will be a dylan lynch, and he wants to be able to say, "I told you so" on Day 2. I know this is completely insubstantial, not evidence at all. But it just strikes me that way.

You are "adamant about who I think are the scum"? I assume you mean Kate and J-man. Surely there's not enough evidence for to be adamant yet? I'm no fan of Kate or J-man, but I think being adamant about anything on Day 1 is risky at best. The only people who can be sure of anything yet are the Mafia....

I'm happy with my vote.

[Numenorean7]

On a more theoretical note, it appears that we have fleshed out quite the concept here with the idea of a Villiage Idiot (it would be ridiculous to say "discovered a concept" because VI's have existed forever). It seems that we have discovered a perfect specimen in poor Dylan. It might be interesting to, upon my return, post in the Discussion thread and perhaps establish the VI as standard terminology so that towns can begin to develop a methodology which can be applied to the problem.

@The more experienced players: Does this idea have sufficient merit for that sort of treatment? Would it be best to wait for the game to end before posting? (they seem quite picky about referencing ongoing games over there in the Discussion thread)

I thought this myself, because the "village idiot" phenomenon is so common. Although it might be good to come up with some other abbreviation for a VI who is scum, I do think this idea has merit, and may well become common terminology. You should keep this game number, post number, and date in mind to substantiate your claim as the inventor of the VI terminology (my aunt is an Intellectual Property lawyer).

Being “adamant” or “insistent” is completely different than thinking anything is a sure thing. Now, what “strikes me” as interesting is the fact that you are setting me up for a Day 2 suspicion now aren’t you?

Day 2 suspicion? What about Day 1 suspicion?
We seem to be using different definitions of adamant:

adamant - utterly unyielding in attitude or opinion in spite of all appeals, urgings, etc

...

Lets say the “Dylan lynching” goes down and he is innocent…”Hmmm, is Num right? Is Curious trying to say I told you” if he is guilty “Hmm, Curious really did not want that lynch”. Sort of a lose-lose situation for me you are painting there aren’t you? If Dylan is innocent, I want to explore who really pushed this lynch…but you would rather focus who opposed it? Interesting. I think you are stretching. In your eyes right now, you think I am scum, so anything I might do will be scummy…but that is a stretch.

This is serious WIFOM territory. You could be
a)scum trying to defend your scumbuddy
b)scum trying to distance yourself from a townie lynch
c)town trying to protect the VI

(c)NabakovNabakov

d)etcetera
There is no reason to take your desire to prevent a Dylan lynch as evidence of any sort. It just struck me as b, and I thought I'd mention it. No need to defend yourself.

J-man has informed me that he only wants to be replaced if dylan is not.

I guess he wants to make sure he's not in another game with Dylan? Well, perhaps a replacement will be helpful. I wonder what curious will think of this: the new guy can't be Mafia since he was a replacement.

As far as this Dylan/J-man discussion, it seems likely to me that at least one of them is scum, and Dylan is more suspicious than J-man, but I don't have a very concrete opinion at this point. Both of them seem to play like this in general, but it doesn't excuse their conduct, nor does it make them any less likely to be scum.

[Numenorean7]

In the same dictionary.com site
Adamant - determined or insistent Your original post you were referencing Day 2 I addressed that. We am aware of your suspicion for Day 1.

Whatever definition you take, adamant is much too strong a word for your suspicions. What makes you so sure? And there's nothing wrong with setting you up for Day 2 suspicion. A scumlynch on Day 2 is just as good as a scumlynch on Day 1.

Thank you for your post, Adel. I've been meaning to do a post-by-post on curious for a while now.

What? What I am being dismissive about? I did not particularly like your mistruth either, please show us where I asked (or even implied) I wanted Kate to claim? I think claiming on the most part is silly Day 1..maybe you should spend less time making silly charts no one can read and means little, to actually reading the posts. Matter of fact, other than regurgitating what other people have said and misquoting people, what have you really added to the discussion? FoS Adel

The first part of this is slightly relevant. It is pretty clear you were trying to build a Kate bandwagon, and Adel is interpereting your actions with a possible motive. The rest of your post is simply inflammatory insults.

@MoS
What do you think about curiouskarmadog? I know you firmly believe pickem is scum, but you have also criticized ckd for attacking J-man and defending Dylan. You have also mentioned his bad logic regarding replacements. Do you think curious would be a possible scumbuddy of pickem?

[Numenorean7]

Yes, I believe that ckd could very well be scum. The only people I would not be willing to lynch right now are myself, Adel, Dylen, and Crub (aka J-man)

I can understand how you don't see Dylan's and J-man's behavior as scummy, just newbie. But I don't see why you are so sure they're pro-town: can't newbies be scum, too?

Welcome to the game, Crub. Good beginning. I completely understand about the huge thread to catch up on: you have my sympathy. 8)

[Numenorean7]

@ckd
IMO, most (if not all) of your arguments against J-man could just as well make him a second VI, not scum. And your arguments for a J-man/Adel/MoS scumgroup are based entirely on conjecture. It's easy to make behavior fit a hypothesized scumgroup: every vote or attack among them is distancing, every vote or attack outside them is deflecting suspicion. I honestly find no reason to believe in this proposed scumgroup.
I agree strongly with N-N's post 487.

One thing I wanted to mention:

theadmiral in response to your response to me i have 1 thing to say, its not my job to convince you to not vote me its your job to kill a mafia as well as mine since im am quite convinced that your just a confused townsperson.

Its “your” job to kill mafia as well as mine. How about “its our job to kill mafia” Almost sounds like you are on opposite teams. He is “quite convinced” that Admiral is town. Almost sounds like adamant, which Num has pointed out, no one can be adamant at this point.

The first part of this makes no sense to me: how is your suggested wording different from what J-man said? In context, J-man's wording almost makes more sense than yours.
But mostly I'm interested in the second part of the post: wasn't it you who was being adamant a little while ago? Perhaps you're admitting that adamant was a bad choice of words, but this is a strange way to do it. Accusing someone else of being adamant just after you've been accused of that same thing?

MoS:
IIRC, your vote on pickem was based mainly on his suggestion that someone else vote for J-man, and his iffy defense/denial thereafter. This seems slim evidence for the kind of confidence you've been displaying.

I will find time for a re-read tonight and tomorrow. If I notice anything new, I'll be sure to mention it.

[Numenorean7]

The latter of the quote was a jab at you, Num.

OK. I hope I can take a jab gracefully.

I found it odd that you jumped down my throat when I used the word "adamant" (saying that it was a scum tell) but let "quite convinced" slide.

Being quite convinced that someone is town is very different: it's still not ideal, but it's pretty common, especially from a VI type. Plus, I too am fairly certain ThAdmiral is pro-town (though I wish he would post more content), so J-man's comment didn't really jump out at me.
Being adamant about your proposed scum is worse. It suggested to me that you were not only "quite" convinced, but

firmly

convinced, so much so you wouldn't look at other alternatives. I do find this a scumtell. Of course, you have now apologised to Kate and begun attacking Adel and MoS, so I guess you weren't so adamant after all. *shrugs*

[Numenorean7]

I've finished my re-read. I don't want to bore everyone with a wall of text, so I'll summarize. There's not much really new, just a new perspective on it.

I'm getting a protown reading on Adel, HungryJoe, NabakovNabakov, J-man/Crub, Mastermind of Sin, and molestargazer.

Crub/J-man

I'm getting a VI vibe from J-man, and Crub seems a strong pro-town player.

CKD

You all know my opinion of curious, so I'll just say that my re-read has done nothing to change my mind. His recent analysis has convinced some, but he's still at the top of my list.

Dylan

I'm getting a strong newbie scum vibe from Dylan. Again, enough has been said on this topic, but my re-read has made me more suspicious of him.

Kate

Some of her behavior is scummy, but I don't think she has been acting like Mafia, especially lately.

pickemgenius

I understand MoS's suspicions regarding pickem. There's nothing really obvious, but an accumulation of things does look rather scummy.

FoS: pickemgenius

However, IMO other people have been scummier. He will be worth taking a good look at on Day 2, but I don't believe he would be a good candidate for lynch Day 1.

ThAdmiral

I have been saying that ThAdmiral is pro-town, but I'm starting to wonder, particularly because of the early no-lynch wagon:

carrotcake random-votes no-lynch (36)
tromboner agrees, votes no-lynch (39)
kate agrees, unvotes (40)
ThAdmiral agrees, votes no-lynch (47)

Just for this,

FoS ThAdmiral

. No-lynch is a bad idea, and putting on the 3rd vote is really suspicious. I've already mentioned this in conjunction with carrotcake/N-N, tromboner/ckd, and Kate, but ThAdmiral is perhaps the most culpable. I'd like an explanation of post 47. I've previously mentioned his lack of content. He often says over again what has already been said. He posts infrequently, and never says much when he does. I believe he may be lurking in plain sight. I'm keeping a closer eye on ThAdmiral from now on.

My current scumorder:
curiouskarmadog
dylan41985
pickemgenius
ThAdmiral
Kate
molestargazer
Crub
NabakovNabakov
HungryJoe
Adel
MoS
Numenorean7

[Numenorean7]

I'd be interested to hear why HungryJoe is so high up on your protown list. If anything, I have him on my "more likely to be scum" list.

I don't see evidence against him, and his reasoning strikes me as pro-town. But if MoS and N-N think he's scummy, I'll take another look at him.

Ha! I can see how you got confused but I actually voted: NOT no lynch (go have another look). I probably should have made that a bit more clear.

I apologise.

Un-FoS: ThAdmiral

. I still wish we heard more content from you, but I'm really sorry I misread you.

I'll put together my case and get back to you.
To summarize it's basically his lurking and bandwagon jumping, but I'll do a post-by-post.

I'm looking forward to seeing your PBP. This Dylan metagaming has got me confused. He has been acting scummy, that's pretty much granted. But does he always do that?

While you are generating your case against dylan, please take a look at the three games we cited above. I think they establish that his actions are consistent regardless of his alignment.

I agree. This is the VI concept. To successfully metagame Dylan, we would need to find differences between his play as town and his play as scum, or differences in the play of other, similar players (there should be plenty to choose from).

I still don't buy ckd's defense, but I'm the only one left. Maybe I'm just seeing something that's not there? Still, I don't see anywhere better to put my vote. I'd like to vote Dylan, but it's starting to look like he's a pro-town VI after all, which we should keep around to help our odds. I just finished a re-read, and I feel like I have no idea what's going on in this game.

Mod

Could we have a vote-count please? And if it's not too much to ask... replace Dylan?

[Numenorean7]

On the Pickem case in general, I think MoS has a bit of a case, but the element upon which it hinges (that Pickem was trying to get others to hammer) doesn't jump right out to me. When reading the thread, it just looked like he wasn't sure what to do and was putting his ideas into the thread (something every good townie should do). After MoS's analysis, does it look scummy? Yes. Is it the slam dunk he seems to think it is? Not in my eyes.

QFT.

I am looking forward to that anti-HungryJoe post. The only evidence I can see is that he doesn't buy pickem as scummy. I suppose you could accuse HJ of lurking, because he doesn't post much. I don't really see anything against him. I'm prepared to be convinced, though.

Mod: What are your deadline rules? That seems to be one of the things that changes from mod to mod. If we don't go into deadline with a full majority (7), is it a no-lynch?

Um... Per described the deadline rules thoroughly:

Deadline conditions:
- The player with the most votes at the deadline is lynched
- If two players have an equal amount of votes at the deadline, the one who reached this amount first is lynched
- If someone reaches 7 votes before the deadline, he gets lynched immediately

[Numenorean7]

I do see what you mean about HungryJoe's "evolution on the Dylan issue". To test your theory, I would like to see votecounts on Dylan and posts by Dylan interspersed with HJ's posts.
Does HJ's vehemence increase as the number voting Dylan decreases? That would be a point against him.
Are there any majorly scummy things Dylan said that precipitate HJ's increased hostility? Was HJ's changing view of Dylan caused by scummy posts, rather than a failing bandwagon?

I would look into this myself, but it's late here and I need to go to bed.

[Numenorean7]

Finally even if he is a townie I think he is probably better off dead anyway. His tendency to just pile his vote on a growing wagon means the mafia need fewer votes to lynch someone, as they know they can probably rely on dylan to help them out.

That's a very good point. Dylan is little more than a +1 to any bandwagon. I hadn't thought of it that way.

If we lynch dylan and he is a townie, we lose a useless townie, but we don't really gain any information in exchange.

absolutely nothing [except his guilt] can be learned from his hanging at this point.

I disagree: we would get some information from a Dylan lynch. Everyone has interacted (or at least attempted to interact) with Dylan at some point. Revealing his alignment might shed some light on which people already knew his alignment. I believe more can be learned by other players' reactions to a given player than from the behavior of the player himself. Dylan has gotten plenty of reactions.

Proving the innocence or guilt of any of those 4 [Crub, Pick, Adel, and ckd], however, provides the town with a ton of information.

Again, I disagree. Most information from the death of a player is WIFOM: it's often really hard to tell between townie suspicion and scum distancing. I suppose it is unlikely that MoS and pickem are both scum, but what if pickem were lynched and turned up town? Could you be confident MoS was scum? Certainly not. I don't believe a lynch of one of the more active players would provide a whole lot more information than a Dylan lynch.

I am not so sure about ckd any more. Many people have unvoted, and I hate being on a wagon with the VI. More importantly, post 571 looks quite pro-town to me. Curious doesn't abandon his suspicions on MoS, Adel, and Crub, but he acknowledges that he could be "suffering from tunnel vision", and is willing to listen to alternatives. He makes reasonable comments on current events (Dylan, pickem and HJ). I disagree with some of what he said (see above), but overall, I like post 571.

Unvote

Dylan's playstyle is a danger to the town, whether he's scum or not. As ThAdmiral mentioned, he helps any and all bandwagons. If he's town, he helps the scum and distracts us from finding them. If he's scum, he can hide behind his newbieness and past playstyle. I believe we would gain at least some information from his lynch, not significantly less than the information we would gain from the lynch of one of the more active players. With a deadline approaching, I believe that Dylan may be the best lynch for today.

Vote: Dylan

[Numenorean7]

Goddamn. This thread adds about a page per every post in other threads.

Wow this game goes fast, it's like everyday i check this, there's another page. And it's all very confusing too.

QFT. Lots of activity is good, but kinda overwhelming and confusing. For instance, I no longer know what to think about ThAdmiral.

This quote ... really epitomizes the major flaw in your argument. You take fairly standard interactions between two or three players and turn them into a well oiled scum machine. Your argument is essentially a tautology: "They're scummy because they're constantly scum distancing" You try to prove the first clause by bringing up the second, but you can't prove the second without the first.

I love the way you think.

he just pops in and votes the biggest bandwagon, no explanation, more like a help to the mafia.

Kate - I do not just join the biggest bandbagon. That's a lie, please take it back.

He's right Kate. To my knowledge, Dylan has never joined a bandbagon, and you're a filthy liar for saying so.

I laughed so hard after I read this that I couldn't speak coherently for about 45 seconds.

Dylan is now at L-2, am I correct?

Crub seems to be moving his vote around a lot. Not necessarily bad, but I'm just pointing it out.

[Numenorean7]

This post seems a little on the harsh side - filthy liar or just an innocent mistake that isn't really doing much harm anyway?

Notice, Dylan said band

b

agon, and NabNab poked fun at his mistake. It was meant as a joke. See 605.

Nice to have you back!

Why is it that I now think at least one of ThAdmiral/Numenorean is scum?

What do you think about an Adel/Numenorean scumgroup?

Why am I in both your recent suggested scumpairs? You voted me because I voted Dylan: what differentiates me from the others who are on the wagon?
Neither do I understand your sudden suspicions of Adel: wasn't (s)he on your short list of people whose lynch you wouldn't support (439)? What has made you change your mind?

BTW, Adel, are you a he or a she?

(Lots of questions in that post, aren't there? )

[Numenorean7]

Num7 has only mentioned Adel twice, both times in his analysis of every players during his reread. The second time, he only said that he felt she was protown, without adding any other content about her.

You must mean something unusual by the word "mentioned", because this statement is just plain false. Quickly searching through my posts for the word "Adel", I find that, out of my 17 posts, 8 of them say something about Adel or to Adel, or at least mention her. Wheras out of your 91 posts, only about 22 of them say something about Adel or to Adel, or at least mention her. (This does not count the posts where Adel's name appears inside a multi-layered quote, but she isn't involved in your actual post.) These exact numbers are open to debate, but the general trend is clear: I have been mentioning Adel more than you have. By your logic, we should be looking for an Adel/MoS scumpair more than an Adel/Numenorean scumpair: you have obviously been ignoring her. As far as Adel ignoring me, remember that my predecessor was not here for about half the game. No one mentioned him.
Perhaps you mean that I haven't been voicing any suspicions about Adel. This is true, but I never saw anything particularly scummy about her. Neither has anyone else except CKD (and Dylan). Neither had you, until recently.

Not only is your premise flawed, but the conclusion you draw from it is (as NabNab said) WIFOM.

I still can't quite believe that your vote of me is based solely on my vote of Dylan and my interaction with Adel. Do you have some hidden suspicion you're not voicing yet? Or are you just pressuring me to see how I react?

[Numenorean7]

I had a number of things to say reading the last page, but most of them were said by someone else further on, so there is no need to repeat them.

I'm not entirely sure what to think about recent developments. I am glad the town has enough sense to recognize that MoS's case against me based purely on lack of interaction with Adel was weak. This very case has made me wonder about MoS. I wouldn't expect an argument based purely on lack of interaction between two people from a player of MoS's expertise. I felt at the time he must have some other reason. Adel's accusation of rolefishing is rather excessive, but it sorta rings true.
Still, I'm certainly not going to switch my vote to MoS. Unless a lot more evidence turns up (which seems unlikely), he is not the lynch for today.

I actually wouldn't mind a dylan lynch, I don't think he's been a help to the town, he just pops in and votes the biggest bandwagon, no explanation, more like a help to the mafia. I also think we would gain just as much info. from a dylan lynch, as any other lynch.

I'm gonna Unvote:Dylan, I don't think he'd be a good lynch for today

Why the sudden change of heart?

[Numenorean7]

NabNab, in response to your implicit request that someone make a case against you, I've reread your posts in isolation. One thing I noticed is that the first thing you pointed out was MoS's rapid change of heart about J-man. You unvoted later ("Your defense has convinced me to Unvote. A single occurance of odd/scummy behavior is not enough to support a lynch especially when it can be fairly rationally explained.") Now that he has also dropped suspicion against pickem (and ThAdmiral), and seems to have left me behind too after a somewhat unimpressive case, what is your opinion?

One inconsistency I noticed:

I happen to be one of them people who will refuse to vote Dylan no matter how scummy he looks.

Utimately, assholes like Dylan are an exercise in futility and frustration, but I still refuse to vote someone with only a 25% chance of being scum (because play as mystifyingly incompetent as this masks any attempts to get a true read on the situation).

I therefore Vote: J-Man for his opportunistic bandwagoning, poor reasoning, and lack of contribution to true discussion.

Why did you label Dylan as the VI and declare you will never vote him, while voting J-man for almost exactly the same behavior?

Looking through MoS's posts in isolation, I noticed that he was doing some vote-hopping early in the game: from carrotcake to J-man to molestargazer to J-man. The very next post after he votes J-man a second time, he says, "I would like J-man to claim." This didn't strike me as scummy at the time: after all, they were mostly just random votes, and J-man was at L-2 when MoS suggested a claim. But I did notice it this time through, and I thought I would mention it in conjunction with Adel's accusations of rolefishing.

Also, a minor contradiction:

Scum are generally not willing to commit to declaring a person definitely scum or town, because that puts them in a position they can't back out of.

He has declared several people definitely town (e.g. J-man, Adel) and several people definitely scum (e.g. J-man, pickem). He's backed out of these declarations readily enough.

More coming later, perhaps, but I have to go.

[Numenorean7]

However, the rest of your case is pathetic

What rest of the case? That was the only scummy point I noticed in my brief glance over your posts. I would like to hear your thoughts on MoS, but you've already promised that. I'm looking forward to it.

Somebody accuse me of something Dammit! I feel left out.

I did my best. If you want to be accused of something, you'd need to start doing something worth accusing

[Numenorean7]

So in three years you haven't learned how to get scum lynched? As you say, bullshit.

I don't like this. Experience doesn't make one omnipotent. If MoS could "generate a case strong enough to lynch any player", wouldn't that mean he would always win, whether scum or town? People are different enough, unpredictable enough, and clever enough, that it's quite possible MoS hasn't "learned how to get scum lynched".

@MoS
I don't see a Cassandra award listed in any of the Scummmies in the Wiki....

[Numenorean7]

That's because it doesn't exist anymore.

But shouldn't the award be listed in the 2003 or 2004 scummies even if it has been discontinued?

[Numenorean7]

Hear Hear!

[Numenorean7]

GO US! 30 pages! Here's to 35!

I have been slightly uncomfortable with the Dylan lynch for a while. I wouldn't normally support lynching a VI, but with a deadline approaching, I thought he was the best candidate. Besides, an unvote would have put MoS into the noose, which I believe would have been a bad idea. I still think Dylan's behavior smacks of newbie scum, but it seems we should be able to do better than a VI lynch with 30 pages and counting. I'm currently looking for a better home for my vote. I'll try to manage a re-read.

Do you think it would be appropriate to ask in Mafia Discussion what the record is for the longest Mini Day 1? It's not exactly talking about a current game.

[Numenorean7]

I have been convinced.

Unvote
Vote: MoS

This might seem cowardly: hopping on the MoS wagon now that he's away, but his behavior as he left together with NabNab's analysis have put me firmly on the anti-MoS side. I am looking forward to his defense when he comes back. He is at L-2 now, correct?
MoS has been latching onto a player, and focusing on him with captain-Ahab-like obsession. That is, until he completely abandons the case and jumps onto the next one with all his might. Until recently, he had me convinced that he was an agressive scumhunter. Even after his weird case against me I still thought he could be OK, and ought to be saved until D2. But his smug "Please vote Adel" and "You can do that work yourself" was the straw that broke the camel's back. MoS is arguing his case through repitition, and using an implicit ad hominem attack on those not voting Adel. Taken together with his history of simlutaneous flip-flopping and excessive confidence... Blech. I've been looking to move my vote, and the more I think about it, the more I believe that it belongs right here on MoS.

Thank your for your analysis, NabNab. It's clear you've put a lot of time and effort into this. I personally would switch Dylan and J-man/Crub, but in general, I think you've stated things very well.

[Numenorean7]

First of all,

thank you Tarhalindur

! (May we call you Tar?:)) We all really appreciate you replacing HJ.

My vote will put him at –1. I am actually more interested at seeing what will happen next…

Just to be safe and prevent and untoward hammer. Unvote.

Alright, heading to vacation (tomorrow morning) and will not be back until the 22nd. I will have limited access at best. At any rate.. Unvote MoS

That was interesting. I wonder if NabNab will put his vote back on now that ckd has unvoted?

[Numenorean7]

I'd like to hear from ThAdmiral and Kate about the MoS wagon. Neither of them have posted in over 48 hours.

[Numenorean7]

It is like many players are already playing for a deadline.

I need a replacement for HungryJoe, who replaced carrotcake in Mini 458. Day 1, 29 pages.

Deadline was going to occur tomorrow if I hadn't needed another replacement. It will probably be reinstated to 2/3 days after the replacement comes in, because damn, D1 is taking a hell of a long time.

I'd like to hear from ThAdmiral and Kate about the MoS wagon. Neither of them have posted in over 48 hours.

In my opinion it was very suspicious.

All of the most recent votes (nabakov, numenoran and ckd) seem to have been done by people wanting to get on a bandwagon, all providing barely enough of a reason to do so. Numenorean and ckd in particular, both basically stating: "I agree".

I suppose it could be argued that I got onto a convenient bandwagon at an opportune time. But my suspicions had been building for a while, and (as I said in my post), NabNab's analysis and how MoS acted when he was leaving clinched it for me. Each of us has some unique reason (if you'll look back a little ways into the thread) for voting MoS. Although I do understand your suspicions of this wagon: it has gone rather quickly.
I was prepared to unvote when I saw ckd's vote, because I didn't want MoS lynched before he had a chance to respond, but NabNab beat me to it. It all makes perfect sense to me.

This is somewhat new for you, Admiral. You have mostly been talking about Dylan. This is the only time I can remember you've brought up a good point about something else, which hadn't already been brought up already. I'm glad to see content from you, but if MoS is lynched and turns up scum, I'll be looking more closely at you.
What do you think about the case itself?

[Numenorean7]

^^
Great post. Very insightful. Exactly what I would have said.

As far as accusations of following others. I am not able to post as frequently as many of you, so someone else frequently says what I was going to say. When I see something I agree with, I often mention it. When I have original ideas or new perspectives, I speak my mind. For instance, I started the CKD wagon with my player-by-player when I replaced in. I am sometimes more of a mover-and-shaker in slower games, but there are so many highly active people here, I can't keep up.

Um... Are you still there, Tarhalindur?

[Numenorean7]

I'm actually really hoping he doesn't respond so we can get a decent player in to replace him.

I second that. But what are the chances? I wonder if we could get Dylan replaced by a majority vote?

[Numenorean7]

You're looking for something more than 765? I'll think about it, but there's not much more I can say. I guess it's a matter of playstyle.

[Numenorean7]

Go MeMe! Aren't you at the Thespival?

[Numenorean7]

@Dylan:
I find it hard to believe you're actually enjoying this game, or that you enjoy MafiaScum in general. If you lurk all the time, why do you play at all? If you don't want to spend the time and energy to post content, wouldn't your time be better spent elsewhere?

[Numenorean7]

Thespival

[Numenorean7]

How dare you
Now defend yourself

[Numenorean7]

I like this guy.

QFT. Very solid analysis there. I don't necessarily agree with everything he said, but I like to see a player who thinks logically. Welcome to the game. I am looking forward to that PBPA on Adel.

@MoS
Everyone has been waiting for you to get back and post a defense. Now you're back, but you have written only 9 words so far. Are you at least catching up on the thread and preparing a big post?

It looks like NabNab has just posted almost exactly this same thing. Oh well.

[Numenorean7]

Talk to people that were at Thespival. What you just described is about the strongest town tell you'll ever get on me, and you're trying to skew it to say I'm scum, LoL.

Isn't talking about a game outside the thread against the rules?

I was the one that saved both VI's from lynch. It was because of me that we cleared them and have to find someone else to lynch.

I certainly don't consider dylan cleared. He's not on the top of anyone's scumlist (except Admiral's), and I seriously doubt he will be lynched, but I think many people have him in mind as possible scum if more (different) evidence turns up. I know I do.

Being extremely confident, but willing to change your mind upon further evidence is NOT a scumtell, as far as I'm concerned.

The way I see it, being very confident encourages others to follow your lead. If you are willing to change your opinion quickly, you had no business being so certain in the first place.

I really do think we ought to look into your claim that this is your playstyle, not a scumtell. I suppose I could sift through all your games and try to get a feel for your playstyle, but that would be a heck of a lot of work. Would you happen to have a link or two handy which demonstrate your playstyle, both as town and as scum?

[Numenorean7]

Only if you refer to the game specifically. It'd be perfectly ok to go up to someone and be like: "Would you say that when MoS is town he's more likely to be extremely confident in his suspicions and sometimes make a complete 180 turnaround if he sees new evidence?" As long as you don't reference a particular game, it's fine.

I brought up the rules about ongoing games in Mafia Discussion to answer this question, among others. If someone talked about your playstyle in an ongoing game, they would be breaking the rules of that game. I suppose I could ask them about your playstyle in past games, but you say this is a recent playstyle change. If you want to argue with this idea, you can do so here:
Referencing ongoing games

[Numenorean7]

if the votes swell against MoS again, I might switch my vote again to him

Why would more votes on MoS cause you to move your vote to him? Looking for a bandwagon to join?

MoS: I'd like your opinion on something:

Assuming that both you and I are town, do you think Num7 could be buddying up to me?

At this point, who do you think could be buddying up to you?

1)Why are you asking MoS?
2)Why assume that both of you are town? I think that is rather unlikely. You have been going at each other tooth and claw.
3)Why do you think I've been buddying up to you? Perhaps you are trying to address MoS's argument that we've been ignoring each other. Hasn't it been agreed that this was a rather weak case?
4)You both have 3 votes, more than anyone else. Why would anyone want to buddy up to either of you?

[Numenorean7]

given my posts for the last 10 pages...do you really think I am looking for a bandwagon Num? Seriously? Or do I feel like MoS/Crub/Adel are scummy, mentioned it numerous times, and I have no problem lynching one of the 3?

I guess you're right. I don't see it as seriously scummy in this situation. I always get uncomfortable with people saying they would be willing to join a bandwagon

if

it started. Sounds like they're trying to
a)start a bandwagon on that player without being seen as the instigator and
b)avoid the accusations of jumping on a convenient wagon if it does pick up
Of course, you have been pushing your MoS/Adel/Crub suspicions for a while now, so the argument doesn't quite apply.

[Numenorean7]

It's a long shot but I thought I'd bring it up: distancing scum battle?

Yes, it would be the perfect scumbattle. Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. I don't think either of them are making any sense.

[Numenorean7]

By stating that you think one or the other of us is scum, then you set up a 1-2 lynch if one of us gets lynched and turns up town. Not to mention that it is totally bullshit to say that two people arguing a lot have to have different alignments. That in and of itself is suspicious, and you used that statement to justify the setup for a double mislynch.

Sorry, my mistake. I found it weird that Adel would assume you are town when she's been attacking you so vehemently. I was also thinking it's unlikely you're both scum, because the argument would be very intense for scum distancing. The two thoughts must have gotten confused.
There's no reason to believe that you're not both pro-town.

[Numenorean7]

it'd be nice if anyone else was even here...

I'm still here, but I don't really know what to say.

Per is back on the 29th. When he returns, perhaps it would be time for a deadline?

[Numenorean7]

I agree that the company seems a strange reason to get off a wagon, but Tar already said that.
It's a lose-lose situation for Adel. If she still thinks MoS is scum, why unvote just because she doesn't like the others on the wagon? If she doesn't think MoS is scum, that's a major flip-flop for no apparant reason. And what is she saying about dylan?

[Numenorean7]

I will try to manage a re-read as well.

[Numenorean7]

That's what I thought when I first saw her post, but I think what she's saying makes sense. Let me paraphrase:

"Suppose my playstyle was different as scum than as town. In that case, another player could look at a game where I was pro-town (like this one), see that my playstyle here is different from my playstyle in another game (like 399), and conclude I am scum in that game."

I think it was just awkward wording, not a slip-up.

[Numenorean7]

Has there been a serious push on kate ever? I can't seem to remember one if there had been (and I can't really be bothered checking through the whole thread).

IIRC, around the time CKD and I replaced in, there was some suspicion directed against Kate, but never more than 1 or 2 votes.

Trying to figure out what you gained by defending Kate....

his last post doesn't sit well with me.

When I saw Kate's post, I thought it was a slip-up and started writing a post in which I put a FoS on her. But when I started explaining the slip-up, I realized it wasn't a slip-up, just awkward wording. If you look carefully at what she said, you'll agree.

[Numenorean7]

I finished reading the thread from page 10. I can't say it's given me a whole new insight into the game, but I am watching a few people a little more closely.

This day is getting too long. At one point, we said that we would try for 35 pages. Now we're well into page 37, and it's getting a little trying. We're just going around in circles.

Unvote

My vote on MoS is unproductive. Plus, I've done some metagaming and I think he's telling the truth about his playstyle.

Vote: ThAdmiral

He hasn't said much besides "Dylan is scum" and "I'm not scum." Sure, some of his posts have content, but most of them are very short and don't add anything new. A lot of people have mentioned this...

but no one is voting him

. I find this very interesting.
ThAdmiral is condemned by his own post. For instance:

Voting for lurkers is often a mafia strategy, as they know that they only have to post enough to not be classified lurkers.
It also means that the person killed doesn't provide the town with much information, as he probably didn't get on enough to accuse people etc.

[Numenorean7]

I just thought it was interesting that so many people were expressing suspicion and no one was voting you. I'm not sure what sort of motivation is involved. I don't know if it's scummy, I'd just like an explanation. (or at least speculation)

[Numenorean7]

So you still think it was a slip-up?

[Numenorean7]

Could you at least have provided a link?

Newbie 341

[Numenorean7]

Why don't you look up the other game I was cop in?

Wait a minute, are you claiming cop?

[Numenorean7]

Fishing, anyone?

So I was just supposed to ignore it?

[Numenorean7]

The first post is the one where he answers for Kate and defends her. This second post has a different tone and feels like the start of an attack. If Num7 could understand what she was saying in her first post (which was far more obscure than the second one), I don't see why he wouldn't have understood what she was saying in the second post, instead asking if she was claiming cop.

The difference was, in the first post she didn't actually say that she was scum. In the second one, she did actually say she was cop. It wasn't what she meant, but it is what she said.

[Numenorean7]

NabNab should be back tomorrow.

[Numenorean7]

I didn't think it was likely she was claiming cop, and I wanted her to clarify.

[Numenorean7]

Assume Num7 is town. Num7 answers for Kate because he understands her, but fails to understand whether or not she is claiming cop in the second "slip up". The logic of how this is at all possible completely escapes me.

I'm just a stickler for grammar. She did technically say she was the cop, and I wanted her to clarify that that was not what she meant. I guess you missed the incredulity in, "Wait a minute, are you claiming cop?"

[Numenorean7]

You know, I have to agree with crub on one point. CKD has always acted very suspicious when under any pressure. When he had a big wagon going against him, he kept listing those voting him, saying how we'd all be sorry, and predicting who would vote him next. Now he starts freaking out over two votes and claims vanilla townie for no good reason. If you remember, I never quite dropped my suspicions against him, though my vote moved on. Given this recent interaction with Adel, I'm seriously considering moving my vote back.

[Numenorean7]

If the town agrees I am happy to be lynched, because I am Vanilla town so the town will not lose so much, and the scum will not gain so much. Maybe if I am lynched and when I'm confirmed town, the rest of you townies might actually listen to what I have to say.

Let me say this ... you may not agree with my playstyle this game ... this is not how I normally play. I am very frustrated because I feel like the scum are controlling the day and the rest of the town are running around like chickens with no heads. I feel that I am helpless to bring anyones attention, to this.

There is a good case against ckd. Go back and look at the case against him earlier in the thread. Nothing was addressed by ckd. The two wall of words posts that got ckd off the hook was a far fetched attack on me, Adel, and MoS and how we were scum partners. I think while those two posts seemed townlike, I still suspect him for the same reasons that were pointed out during that bandwagon.

I've been coming around on the idea of ckd as scum. I may not pursue him today but I will say this: if adel gets lynched and is town I will go after him. I don't care if that is setting up "chain-lynches", I'm going to do it anyway.

This is a weird way to express suspicion against CKD. Why don't you vote him now? What about Adel being pro-town would make CKD any more likely to be scum?

I am going to do an analysis of CKD this weekend if I find time.

[Numenorean7]

What about the fact that Num7 and Adel pretty much avoided each other entirely, with the exception of a few posts that barely touched on them and were not anywhere near the outspokenness of the posts that I quoted of my talking about CKD?

Don't bring up that old argument again...

One of Adel/Num7 HAS to die today

I was just referring to that. Though in retrospect you may have been being just a tad sarcastic.

I don't think MoS was being sarcastic in the least. It's just what he does. It's unlucky for Adel that the deadline falls so soon, so MoS's adamant suspicions won't have time to move someone else.

actually I got to two votes before Adel and Admiral (way back when)...I dont think it will matter in the end though..

I think that Adel would be lynched if the deadline happened right now, because the 2 votes now on her were placed before the two votes on ThAdmiral or the two votes on you. Is that right?

You know something, this is ridiculous. The deadline is in only a few more days, and no one has more than 2 votes! We need votes from molestargazer, pickemgenius, and ThAdmiral, and everyone should re-evaluate their votes and decide who deserves a lynch. This kind of disunity shames the town.

Dylan, you don't have to vote.

[Numenorean7]

I am unsure who among CKD, Adel, and ThAdmiral to vote. Each of them is scummy in his own way. If I may, I will summarize the cases against these players. Feel free to add anything I've left out.

Why CKD is scummy
1) The case against him from his bandwagon days has not been satisfactorily answered
2) He escaped suspicion by deflecting it elsewhere
3) He has been focusing on three people almost to the exclusion of all others
4) His behavior under pressure

Why Adel is scummy
1) She followed MoS around
2) She accused MoS of rolefishing and then did so herself
3) She hasn't been interacting with me
4) She has given up

Why ThAdmiral is scummy
1) He hasn't posted much content
2) He has been focusing on Dylan to the exclusion of all others
3) He argued "we should lynch Dylan even if he is pro-town" argument (which I bought for a while).
4) He has been pushing suspicion without voting

Now many of these points are debatable, but I go back and forth about which is the strongest. Right now, I'm liking the case against CKD. I've also taken a look at the votes:
curiouskarmadog: Crub, NabakovNabakov
Adel: Mastermind of Sin, Tarhalindur
ThAdmiral: curiouskarmadog, dylan41985
I don't want to go along with MoS, CKD, or dylan. I'm still distrustful of MoS, dylan is ... not the most discerning of voters, and CKD is one of my top suspects. However, (and this is going to make NabNab nervous, and MoS is likely going to freak out) I would be much more comfortable following NabNab's vote. He has made some telling arguments against CKD.

In conclusion:

Unvote
Vote: CKD

[Numenorean7]

It looks like CKD has a vote from ThAdmiral now too. I was composing the above mesage when he posted. I'll have to consider whether this changes anything...

[Numenorean7]

I'm not blaming NabNab: my vote is my own.
I'm sorry about the Adel reasons. I didn't look through the thread a whole lot when summarizing the cases, I just did it from memory.
I changed my vote from ThAdmiral after a lot of thought, because I decided you are more likely to be scum. I still hold that opinion.

When the rubber hits the road, everyone moves to CKD. He's at L-1. Who woulda thought? I wonder if we have some distancing going on here... We'll know in about 1 hour.

[Numenorean7]

We've lost two of our more active players, both of whom were pro-town. I believe we should take a closer look at our lurkers.

Dylan jumped on almost every major wagon, but he was not on CKD's lynch. Coincidence?

FoS: Dylan

I have a few questions for MSG. Looking through your posts, I noticed that you haven't had a vote on anyone since you unvoted Dylan over a month ago. Why? Your last post was a day before the deadline was announced, and you said you were just back from vacation, and promised to catch up. Why didn't you contribute? How come you could respond to a PM during a 64-hour night, but you didn't post in the thead at all during the 1-week space before the deadline?

FoS: MSG

I'd like to know what ThAdmiral has to say about Adel, now that CKD has been lynched and came up pro-town. I never quite understood the reasoning behind, "If adel is lynched and comes up town I will go after ckd." Does he now conclude that Adel must be scum?

Adel, could you do another diagram like you did in 307 showing all the votes of D1? I know it would be a lot of work, but you say you like doing it, and I think a retrospective of the D1 votes would be very helpful.

[Numenorean7]

The fact that MSG responded to the PM suggests he's still around. Yet he hasn't posted in the thread, not even saying, "hey, I'm still here but I'm behind. Give me a while to catch up." He just continued his inactivity. That means he is genuinely lurking.

Vote: MSG

[Numenorean7]

What's wrong with asking questions? For that matter, what's wrong with a lurker hunt? I don't want the active town to lynch each other off while the scum hide in shadows. We should at least look at the content-challenged among us more closely.

Prod: Crub and ThAdmiral

[Numenorean7]

I don't see what the big deal is with my "lurker hunt".
I don't like the way MSG responded to his prod. It puts his semi-active/lurking play in a bad light. I'd like a little pressure in that direction.
Dylan's behavior is inexcusable. If everyone played like he does, we would be better off rolling dice to decide the outcome of the game. It would sure be quicker. Unless Dylan undergoes a playstyle change along the lines of Ragnarok, I think he should be replaced.
I am not advocating a lurker lynch. Neither am I attempting to ignore or distract from day 1. In fact, I am in the middle of a partial re-read, and I'll post another player-by-player analysis when I'm done.

@Admiral, At least I've got enough steak to last me for the rest of this game.

You'd better check that steak for BSE (Bovine Scumiform Encephalopathy).

[Numenorean7]

@Num: It seems to me like the Dylan bashing in that last post was just widening the lurker hunt. Yes, it is scummy that MSG didn't post, but there's nothing we can do about that until he comes back or is replaced, so let's focus on more pressing matters. Your vote on MSG is, IMO, a cop out.

So MSG is scummy, but voting him for it is not OK? We have to forget he exists until he comes back or is replaced? I suppose an attempt to broaden discussion and make sure no one is forgotten could be seen as an attempt to distract the town. But it goes both ways: an attempt to keep the town in focus could actually be an attempt to keep certain players out of the limelight...

This

could

be a scumtell, but I think it's much more likely a playstyle difference between the two of us. How to deal with lurkers and inactives is one of those unsolved issues. Even the best players disagree. So how about I go on pointing out people I think are lying low, and you go on focusing on "more important matters". Sound good?

[Numenorean7]

On the other hand, we now know that MoS of yesterday was town, and so if he is town again we not only get a really strong player back into the game (I am still convinced of MoS prowess, even if I did use it against him incorrectly yesterday) but we also get to find out who he investigated (but sadly not the result) and probably quite a few other insights.

So you think MoS is a strong pro-town player, despite the fact that he pushed for your lynch. Are you saying he was right about you?

[Numenorean7]

Is anyone else raising their eyebrow at this post?

I am, for one. She seems to be taking it for granted that getting MoS back would be wonderful. I am not a big fan of dead players replacing back in under any circumstances, and I don't like MoS's playstyle.

It is perfectly conceivable to me that he would be dead wrong about me yet still be a valuable asset to the town.

If he was wrong about you, what did he do D1 that was a "valuable asset to the town"?

I wasn't lynched yesterday, so I suspect that he didn't really want to lynch me.

There you go attributing god-like powers again. Just because you are good at getting someone lynched (or at least you claim to be), doesn't mean everyone is.

[Numenorean7]

Would a replacement have to read the whole thread? It seems to me the last 20 pages or so would be sufficient.

[Numenorean7]

Would a replacement have to read the whole thread? It seems to me the last 20 pages or so would be sufficient.

WTF! Red Flag!

I was just trying to make it easier for the replacement, since Per was saying how hard getting a replacement for this 47-page game would be. I'm currently doing a re-read of living players' posts, so I know just how much verbiage is out there to sift through. It does seem a lot to ask of a replacement. But since ABR seems so ready and willing....

I have noticed something else too. Molestargazer's reply to his prod asked to replace him, not to not replace him. Christ, how could I make such a reading error?

Unvote: ABR
Vote: Per

[Numenorean7]

Sorry everyone, I haven't been able to get on recently. IRL stuff came up.

The argument between Adel and Albert makes both of them look bad. Adel is overreacting (she seems to get riled easily), and Albert seems to be pushing his case very hard on slim evidence. Since neither one has posted any real evidence, it seems this could be a scum distancing tactic....

I also noticed how Dylan jumped in to defend Adel. This struck me as uncharacteristic. He doesn't defend anyone much (other than himself, of course).

Per

: Day 2 has been going on for a while now. Maybe you should change the title?

[Numenorean7]

The only thing that he has going for him at this point is MoS's insistence that Dylan was town.

Just remember, MoS did not have an investigation result yet, so he could not have known about dylan for certain. We do know MoS was pro-town, but we do not know how accurate a scumhunter he is. At least some of his suspicions (CKD, myself) were false.

I think if dylan had a power-role I think he would have claimed already. He was sure he was going to be lynched at one point, and I don't think he would have the self-control to avoid claiming at L-1. I'm not sure if I would, to tell the truth.

I agree with NabNab - I think the odds of dylan being scum are exactly 3 out of 10 (assuming a 3-person scumgroup). Yet I also agree with Crub: I'd hate to be in a situation where the game hung on whether or not Dylan is scum....

Is this the current state of suspicion?
Pickem <- Adel, ABR
Kate <- Adel, Tar
Num7 <- Adel, NabNab, Tar
Admiral <- Adel, NabNab, dylan
dylan <- Num7, Admiral
ABR <- Num7, Tar
Adel <- Admiral, ABR

I think Adel might belong on the ABR list, and I'm not sure if I do, but otherwise it looks pretty good.
What about you? You don't mention yourself at all.

[Numenorean7]

I didn't think MoS suspected ckd, in fact I thought he was on MoS's pro-town list.

MoS

was

voting CKD at the deadline...

[Numenorean7]

I've finally finished my re-read. I've been busy so I didn't have time to work on it the past couple weeks, but it's finally done.

Adel - Scummy

Given some of Adel's early posts, I'm surprised she gave up the dylan case. She was a proponent of the midday CKD wagon (along with myself), which turned out to be on a townie. She threatened CKD with cold and crystaline logic, which never materialized. She attacked MoS for rolefishing, which I think was a reasonable accusation, but turned out to be false. She gave up with a deadline approaching, saying she has a crappy record of voting for town. I don't buy Tar's accusations of rolefishing. Her position on CKD near the end of Day 1 was weird though. At the beginning of D2, she started raving about MoS's abilities, which (IMO) doesn't quite make sense given the history of this game. Then she got into a big argument with ABR. I found her pro-town during most of D1, but she's been looking worse lately and in retrospect.

Albert B. Rampage - Scummy

MSG was never very active. He did make some valid comments, but he posts little original content. I also noticed that he only voted 3 times: random votes on pickem and MoS in his first 2 posts, and an L-2 vote of dylan which he thought was L-1. ABR hasn't given any content either, other than a short list of suspicion and a baseless argument with Adel. I don't like how he clears Kate because Adel was attacking her.

Crub - Scummy

Crub pushed a CKD and MoS scumpair. He started out attacking CKD based on the evidence from the CKD wagon, and later agreed with Adel's case against MoS. Since both these players have been revealed as pro-town, this is a point against him, but a point of debatable strength. He could just be a misguided townie. He did make some good arguments against pickem and ThAdmiral. I was hoping for some good content from him now that his main suspects are proved pro-town, but nothing seems to have materialized.

dylan41985 - replacement needed

There's no way to tell his alignment, which makes him dangerous. I think he would be a good person for MoS to replace, once enough time has elapsed.

Kate - Neutral

I find it difficult to get a read on Kate. She seems reluctant to come down strongly against anyone, and frequently changes her mind regarding the people she's voting. Then there was the "slip-up" fiasco, and her OMGUS vote of Tar. IMO, the metagame doesn't help much either way.

NabakovNabakov - Pro-town

I like the way NabNab plays. He makes a case against MoS as soon as he replaces in. Of course, MoS turned up cop, but I think seeing the MoS pattern before anyone else shows great insight. He reasons well and openly, and I can't really find any scummy motivation from him. He is not looking quite as pro-town today, IMO. Jumping right onto ThAdmiral, the second lynch candidate of D1, was not productive. He also opposed my bringing up MSG, which is probably just a playstyle difference.

pickemgenius - Neutral

Difficult to get a read. There was the possible pushing of the J-man lynch, and he hasn't posted a whole lot of content, but at least he has been posting semi-regularly, and he hasn't given off many scumtells. His vote of CKD after ThAdmiral's and mine is noted, though he claims not to have noticed. Oh, I almost forgot. He's a self-centered bastard.

Tarhalindur - Neutral

He was against the MoS wagon from the start. This could be an accurate read, or it could be scum looking for credit. Given the way he went about it, I am inclined towards the former. He was suspicious of CKD, but so were a lot of other people. He hasn't been posting a whole lot, but he does bring up new content and different angles.

ThAdmiral - Neutral

I feel my reasons for feeling him scummy on D1 still apply, but he is starting to look better. He posted pro-town-looking analyses of the CKD and MoS wagons, and he is asking a lot of questions. I am detecting a playstyle change from the start of D2. Perhaps he was just waiting until we had some known alignments to go on. I'm somewhat predisposed against him, but I'm starting to think he's a pro-town player who just does better after we know some alignments.


My scumlist (dylan not included):
Albert B. Rampage
Adel
Crub
ThAdmiral
Kate
pickemgenius
Tarhalindur
NabakovNabakov

Vote: Albert B. Rampage
FoS: Adel, Crub

[Numenorean7]

@Num, Adel and Albert top your scum list. Could they be scum together? The pointless argument they had could have been distancing, but they both seemed a bit too vehement for that.

Yes, that is a possibility. They have both been acting suspicious in their own right, and I mentioned the possibility of distancing in 1230. The argument was vehement, but the was the evidence presented enough to put one of them in danger?

I would definitely suggest some people start making a wagon of substance at this point. This day has been pressureless and therefore progressless.

QFT. Several people expressed an intention to re-read at the beginning of D2. I'd like to hear their results. It might help us get this game going and avoid a deadline.

[Numenorean7]

I await mos' adel analysis.

QFT

[Numenorean7]

Tar: do you want to say anything about your no-reason-supplied vote for adel? It seemed a little random especially since the last I can remember you were talking about one of me, pickem or Num7 as most-likely scum.

I also want to hear what Tar has to say about that vote on Adel

I don't see much difference between these two comments. But then you say

Given Kate's response, I now believe that at least one of {Kate, Adel} is town.

ThAdmiral, by way of contrast, just shot up on my scumdar (again).

Kate asked for explanation instead of attacking me. Given this less vehement reaction, I believe that Kate and Adel are not likely to be scumbuddies

ThAdmiral's request for explanation, however, felt scummy to me - like a scum trying to fish for a way to make a townie look bad.

I find this extremely bizzare: two reactions with no real difference, but they get opposite reactions from you.

FoS: Tar

pending explanation.

[Numenorean7]

@Tar: That's an interesting approach, but it seems like it relies a bit too much on meta-gaming. Important Question: Was Kate called/caught on her action? Would it be plausible to assume she learned her lesson?

I'm just uncertain as to the benefits of pure reaction fishing in scumhunting.

I keep on trying it, but it hasn't worked very well for me so far in any game.

What do you mean, Adel? NabNab was talking to Tar and Kate.

Oh yea, I also think that Num7 is still scum with Adel, but yea. I'll get to all that eventually.

I was afraid of this: undeterred by his error in voting CKD, MoS will continue to attack me with non-cases and tenuous links to Adel.

He already explicitly said he was looking for a reaction from Kate based on his observations of Kate in an earlier game?

If Tar were to show that ThAdmiral tends to attack unexplained votes as town, and simply ask for an explanation as scum, I could understand his reaction. But Tar never said any such thing. Metagaming Kate could make this a town-tell for her (a vanishingly small one, I might add), but it does nothing to make the exact same behavior a big scum-tell for ThAdmiral.

Albert: "You suck, Adel!"
Adel: "Nuh-uh"
Albert: "Uh-huh"
Adel: "Nuh-uh! You suck!"
Albert: "That's where you're wrong! You suck!"

Knowing what I do about Albert and Adel's extra-game relationship, I'm hesitant to classify this as distancing. But I would like to make a plea either way for a reduction in spammy crosstalk.

Is this typical of Albert and Adel then?

[Numenorean7]

Unofficial Vote Count:

Adel: 5 (Albert B. Rampage, Mastermind of Sin, pickemgenius, Tarhalindur, Crub)
pickemgenius: 2 (NabakovNabakov, Adel)
Albert B. Rampage: 1 (Numenorean7)

Not voting: 3 (Kate, pickemgenius, ThAdmiral)

10 alive, 6 to lynch


Adel is indeed at L-1. She was second on my scumlist back in 1271, so I'm not against her lynch (especially since this game has seriously lost momentum), but I want to hear some sort of convincing argument from MoS first.

Interestingly enough, the Adel wagon gained 4 votes from 1281 to 1331, without any real evidence being posted. Why? Hopefully it's just frustration with the slow pace of the game, not some sort of aura left from MoS's previous incarnation.

[Numenorean7]

Num7 is almost definitely her scumpartner, given his last post.

This is another example of my problem with MoS: he makes everything fit his opinions. He would have said my last post makes me obvscum no matter what I said. If I attack Adel, I'm bussing her. If I ignore Adel, I'm trying to deflect suspicion. If I express some suspicion but am reluctant to hammer, I'm trying to buss her while still hoping to keep her alive. And so on. The fact that he's meticulously reiterating his suspicions from D1 suggests that he's trying very hard to remove any doubt about whether his alignment has changed....

Adel: if that was not claiming, what was it?

[Numenorean7]

Actually, I have problems with this post because you are only showing support for lynching her when it seems inevitable.

How could I have "supported her lynch" before there was any lynch to support? It's true I haven't been

pushing

an Adel lynch, but I have been suspicious of her. Perhaps you are faulting me because I don't find the case for an Adel/Num7 scumpair as overwhelming as you seem to. Besides, an Adel lynch is nothing like inevitable.

D1 there was plenty of suspicion against Adel, and there hasn't been many more pages of evidence to add to D1's suspicion, but now you support her lynch? I smell bullshit.

What about the beginning of D2, which you claim to base your case on? That

did

happen between D1 and your re-incarnation, in case you'd forgotten. Not to mention the fact that you had been revealed as pro-town.

[Numenorean7]

*shrugs*
Whatever you say.

[Numenorean7]

Num7 encourages Adel's voting diagram, which is nothing more than a tool for scum to seem useful to the town without detrimenting themselves.

So a voting diagram is useful to the town? Then why am I scummy to ask for one?

Num7 pushes a bullshit case against MSG, claiming that he's scum because he hadn't posted yet that day, when it was clear that he wasn't around after the night at all, since he wasn't posting anywhere on the site at all.

That case on MSG was based on the erroneous comment that "he replied to his prod overnight, asking to not be replaced". As soon as that was cleared up, I unvoted MSG.

Tarhalindur makes good points for Num7 being scum, not really adding his own contribution, another mark of scum using questions and lurker hunting to cover up lack of contribution.

I suppose my "lurker hunt" and the opinions expressed after my re-read don't count as my own contribution, because you disagree with them.

Num7 continues to push suspicion solely against MSG and Dylan, cop-out behavior ignoring the scummy behavior of other players.

I wanted a dylan replacement, never a dylan lynch. I did want a wagon on MSG, because I think responding to a prod without posting in the thread is really scummy.

By his own admission lately, the arguments against Adel gained more weight after MoS came up protown and her posts at the beginning of D2 were made, yet Num7 isn't attacking her at all. He has resumed his complete avoidance of Adel regarding any useful topics, something that MoS picked up on D1.

Adel was one of my top-3 suspects at deadline on D1, and on D2 I was distracted by the MSG incident. I was one of the first to mention her strange behavior at the beginning of D2, but I was doing a re-read and I wanted to finish before I came down against anyone. I found ABR more scummy than Adel, so I voted him. Of course this could be interpereted as scum interaction, but I fail to see what gave you that impression.

Shame that Num7 hates my playstyle. I've actually been rather proactive and useful this game in comparison to some of my other games recently.

I don't

hate

it. I just strongly dislike it.

Funny that Num7 tries to say that MoS was wrong about a bunch of people being scum, even though he only barely voted for CKD, preferring a lot of other people first but wanting to get a lynch before deadline. MoS has yet to be proven wrong about the suspicions he had before he died.

So MoS hopped onto the wagon of someone he wasn't suspicious of?

Funny how Num7's suspicion list suddenly dropped Dylan entirely, even though he was attacking him earlier and advocating his lynch under the same circumstances.

I left dylan off my list because there is no way to entertain meaningful speculation on his alignment.

As far as the rest of your case, much of it has merit. You can build a good case against a scummy player when you put your mind to it. I am very interested to hear what Adel has to say for herself.


BTW

MoS rather obviously had forgotten his role during D1

What do you mean?

[Numenorean7]

No. A voting diagram does not introduce anything that the town does not already have. It's like making a summary of posts without analyzing them. A voting diagram is not actual contribution, but it is something that scum can use to *look* like they're being useful.

A votecount does not introduce anything the town does not have. I see Adel's diagrams as simply an expanded votecount.

Even with that post, your attack on him was bullshit. Just because he received a prod during the night does not mean that he is definitely around and just avoiding the thread once Day arrives.
...
He could not have posted in the thread when he received the prod, because it was issued at NIGHT. Can't you get that through your head?

I wrote, "How come you could respond to a PM during a 64-hour night, but you didn't post in the thead at all during the 1-week space before the deadline?" The longer he spent not posting, having responed to the PM (as I thought), the worse he looked.

I suppose my "lurker hunt" and the opinions expressed after my re-read don't count as my own contribution, because you disagree with them.

Lurker hunting is a tool for scum to push lynches on townies and seem useful at the same time. There's a bit more to it, of course, but that's the basic idea.

So have I been avoiding posting opinions and original content, or have I been posting scummy opinions and content? Which one is it?

On D1, you did not even suspect her a little bit until after MoS built up a wagon and a lot of suspicion against Adel, and you never supported the wagon enough to actually push it closer to lynch. You just got on record that you "suspected" her, without actually pushing against her. You put her low enough on your suspicions that you had an alibi without having to help lynch her.

Or maybe I didn't find her scummy enough to want to lynch her. You seem to be saying I am scum because I did not march in step with every one of MoS's suspicions on D1.

But you were speculating against him earlier, and there weren't any changes on his end. He has been lurking a posting meaningless content for most of the game. Why the change of heart?

More experience. I was for a dylan lynch at one point, but I've realized that some people (like dylan) give absolutely no information about their alignment. As such, an analysis of dylan would be a waste of time, and attempting to place him on a scumlist would be an exercise in futility.

I'm a little confused/worried about Tar's reaction to Adel's "not claim."

QFT

[Numenorean7]

Unvote
Vote: Adel

If my votecount is correct, that's a hammer:
1331: Crub puts Adel at L-1
1360: Crub unvotes, L-2
1362: pickem unvotes, L-3
1363: ABR unvotes, L-4
1364: Kate votes, L-3
1365: NabNab votes, L-2
1367: ABR votes, L-1
1373: Num7 votes, L-0, Adel lynched

This was obviously a scum gambit to out the real doc. The sad thing is that it worked. At least we've got one scum. Probably two, actualy:

HUGE FOS: Albert B. Rampage

for actually

asking

for a counter-claim!
Townie points to MoS for 1366.
Tar may well be the third scum for over-reacting to Adel's scumpartner claim. The way I see it, Adel was trying to get MoS lynched. If Tar was lynched and came up scum, the town would believe her scumpartner list and lynch MoS. If MoS was lynched and came up town, the town would disbelieve her list and see Tar as confirmed. Either way, MoS dies. Like Maz said, a steel balls gambit. Disregarding the fact that Adel is a girl...

[Numenorean7]

Maz isn't in this game...

I was referring to Maz's comments on Metatron's scumclaim. I think Adel was doing, in reality, what Maz suggested Metatron could have been seen as doing.

[Numenorean7]

From the thread I linked earlier ... the comment I assume Num7 is referring to.

What Meta did - unless I missed him quoting a mod PM - was a steel-balls gambit, similar to one that Vesuvan did in Star Wars Mafia on Tings. A godfather, going down, "blows his cool" and "outs his partners". If you hadn't made it clear he was telling the truth, the town would not have know if he was simply fingering people

who were not actually his scum partners

as scum.

Thank you Crub, that is exactly what I was referring to. I thought I put a link in my post somewhere, but it looks like I didn't.

BS. I was the first vote on Adel and the one to have started the bandwagon.

It's called distancing.

[Numenorean7]

Have we lost our mod?

[Numenorean7]

Num7, I'd start explaining how I wasn't scum with Adel about now, if I were you.

I'd start by explaining why you think I was scum with Adel.

Word. I'm not sure I believe that claim, but until we get a counter-claim...

Unvote, vote pickemgenius

Though the doc somehow survived the night, this was still very scummy. Adel's move was obviously a ploy to get the doc to out herself. ABR actually encouraged a doc to counter-claim.

Vote: ABR

[Numenorean7]

Num7's refusal to accept that arguments have been posted against him is just another black mark.

We had a lengthy discussion near the end of D2 regarding your arguments. If that is what your vote is based on, well and good, but don't try and say that there is some sort of overwhelming case against me that I am ignoring.

Vote: Numenorean7

Let's wrap this up, baby.

I think we can't go wrong with a Num7 lynch.

I see this as delayed OMGUS in response to me pointing out his distancing maneuver with Adel, and my subsequent vote on him. Not to mention sucking up to MoS by following his chief suspect. Slightly reminiscent of Adel's behavior on D1.

[Numenorean7]

Why does everyone keep saying I am linked to AdelScum?

[Numenorean7]

Still waiting for an actual case on me that I can defend myself against. If there has been one in the past, I must have missed it: a post number would be appreciated.


As I see it, there are four possibilities about last night:

1) Scum targeted Kate and were role-blocked
2) Scum targeted Kate and she self-protected
3) Scum targeted someone else and that person was protected
4) Scum targeted someone else and were role-blocked.

Kate can help us figure out which one happened.

[Numenorean7]

This is kind of ironic: we have the longest D1 for a mini on record, and now after a mere 2 pages I am at L-1 me because of the intuition of a dead cop.

Num?

Claim?

Vanilla townie here.

@ Tar: you may not like it when a mafiate says they are scumbuddies with X but it's a valid tactic and can set up mislynches in the town leading to a mafia victory. It may not be the best tactic, or the most admirable one, but it is still a tactic.

I'm potentially willing to vote num but would someone summarise the points against him. As far as I can tell there are some very tenous links, and also the assumption that the mafiates would all be working closely together, which I've hardly ever seen happen.

Actually, that's the opposite of what happened, until they were exposed. MoS first had suspicion of Num7 and noticed that Num7 and Adel were completely ignoring each other, failing to comment on anything of significance about each other and never addressing the other except in passing.

This point was argued about at the time, and no one but MoS seemed convinced. And after being accused of ignoring Adel, is it any wonder that I would, at least subconciously, pay more attention to her?

This then prompted MoS to look further into Adel's behavior, showing her to be scum. He seems to have felt that Adel was the most likely scum of the two, and now that his conclusion has been proven correct, the natural progression is the lynch the other part of that scumpair.

If my "link" to Adel led you to suspect her, that's wonderful. But are you so confident of this link that you're willing to lynch me without even considering anyone else?

The two of them made a concerted effort to cast suspicion on our cop D1 after he exposed them as scum, while also casting around for other easy targets to lynch, such as CKD.

I was not the only one who believed Adel's case against MoS: he got to L-1

Adel made sure to stay off of the main scum target, letting Crub (possible third mafia) lead that wagon, and Num7 supported diversion from Adel's bandwagon by jumping in with the CKD wagon.

Mere conjecture. You have interpereted this based on your assumption that we are scum.

And that's just the tip of the iceberg.

Really?

I suggest we follow the intuition of our dead cop, who already nailed one scum for us.

Just because MoS was right about one scum doesn't mean he was right about everyone else.

[Numenorean7]

You fail to mention the fact that Adel is now dead, which means that this argument has a lot more weight than before. On D1 or even D2, we had no proof that Adel was scum yet.

The fact that Adel was scum does not change the fact that your argument was and is very weak.

You and Crub were some of the most ardent supporters.

Ardent supporter? True, I was on MoS's L-1 wagon, but I don't see how you could say I was an ardent supporter.

Considering Num hammer. So far, his defense has been lackluster, but I don't know if that's because we have him nailed, he doesn't feel like putting in the effort, or because it's as hard to disprove a negative (relationhip) as it is to prove one. I will spend some time with this.

I cannot prove that I am not scum with Adel, and my defense is "lackluster" because I don't have much to defend myself against. MoS's case against me is very subjective, and it's more a matter of the town being convinced or not than of one of us winning the debate. I can try to show that his conclusion that I'm scum comes from the premise that I am scum, but there's really not much I can do if his confidence and the fact that he was right about Adel convinces someone.

[Numenorean7]

Just my luck: first mini game I sign up for, I come up against a Scummie-worthy performance by MoS, who was then resurrected after we NKed him. I still don't like his playstyle much, but I can't say anything against his results. Wow.

I would love to hear some constructive criticism-

QFT.

MoS

: How much of your success was just luck, or were we really that obvious?