Mini 451 - Totally Awesome Mafia, Game Over

[Stewie]

Arbitrary

vote: a papaya

You are one of the easiest to spell (I don't want to copy/paste), you voted for me (so I guess it's a bit omgus) and I just plain don't like papayas.

There, three (completly arbitrary) reasons.

[Stewie]

It is a cool name... they just happened to give it to a crappy fruit.

[Stewie]

Is it a (singular) Papaya or a(rnold) Papaya?

Guess

@Stewie: Actually, on another website, my name was A Banana, and when I became a visible member, as a joke the admin changed it to A Papaya. It's never changed back.

That's pretty funny, because on my last post I was actually gonna say "If your name was A Banana I would not be voting for you," but decided against it in the last second. Now I wish I had said that.

PS: it's nice to have this side-conversation before the action starts.

[Stewie]

And Stewie, when did you arrive? I knew you left, does this mean you are back?

I got back 2-3 days ago. I don't know for how long I'll be back, but it'll probably be all summer.

[Stewie]

Or maybe it's simply the truth. This is part of my playstyle, I say daring things that get people to respond and then I see how they react to them. I've got lots of useful info already. It's better than pages and pages of random voting.

It seems scummy because it's redundant to say that. Imagine if everyone claimed. Everyone would claim to be on the town's side.

Yeah, but the wording is awfully...meh. It might be the truth,

and it probably is

, but if it wasn't a noobtell I don't know why'd you go and say it.

It's almost as bad as saying, "You can trust me, I'm not mafia."

While I agree with the general sentiment of the post, the bolded bit is seems out of place.

The italics should be replaced with:

It's almost as bad as saying, "I am not a crook."

[Stewie]

Unvote: a papaya; vote: Nekka-Lucifer

Mainly because:

1. I don't understand why he took his vote off "Off the Mark."
2. I don't understand why he's voting me now ("longest post ever done"? "he doesn't need to work anything out"?)
3. He hasn't explained why he cares so much about people who are not voting. His explanation was "Just asking." We know that, but

why

are you asking?
4. Already voted three different people.
5. I don't think there's any better reasons to vote for anyone else right now, and I think it's time for the game to start moving somewhere.

For reasons 1-3:

I'm not saying that he must be mafia because he voted me..... It's just that he was scum last game and he seems to be 'trying' to make it seem like he is townie... but now, because it's just going in a big loop (WIFOM), and it was Off the Mark that suggested it, and he is looking for info (meaning he doesnt know who is mafia) I have come to the conclusion that he is a townie....

Unvote

Vote: Stewie

just because he was away at some point .... I don't know the story, oh well.... That may lead to the impression as that he is mafia because..... 'longest post ever done' *sigh* he doesn't need to work anything out... I don't really know to be honest.... and I can't believe we are on the 3rd page still with 'no votes' (see my previous post on pg2)

The Highland Sage: I don't agree with your last comment, since I don't think that voting inactive players is a logical fallacy, but before refuting that, I have a question: what makes you think that mafia are more likely to use this fallacy than town? It does not follow that because it's a fallacy, it's also scummy.

[Stewie]

Unvote: a papaya; vote: Nekka-Lucifer

Mainly because:

1. I don't understand why he took his vote off "Off the Mark."
2. I don't understand why he's voting me now ("longest post ever done"? "he doesn't need to work anything out"?)
3. He hasn't explained why he cares so much about people who are not voting. His explanation was "Just asking." We know that, but

why

are you asking?
4. Already voted three different people.
5. I don't think there's any better reasons to vote for anyone else right now, and I think it's time for the game to start moving somewhere.

is that really conclusive evidence? I don't just want to lynch someone based off the argument "He's the best we've got".

No, it's not conclusive. It doesn't have to end in a lynch, but it's a good place to start since there's nothing better. What do you suggest we do?

[Stewie]

After reading things over a few more times, I am going to put my vote back where it was.

vote: Nekka-Lucifer

Three reasons:

1. "No offense if yer a townie" - trying too hard to fit in - no one else felt "bad" about their random votes.

2. Pushing everyone to vote - what's the hurry? Short days favor the mafia.

3. This reason is going to sound odd, coming from me, but he accepted me as townie a little too quickly, don't you think? I was surprised when I first read his post that he had suddenly dropped all suspicion of me. I know he said that he accepted that I was probing for info, but the way things played out, it seems like he must have had inside information. I don't think I said anything worthy of townie confirmation.

Meh. Using that reasoning, you seem more like scum then him. However' I agree with the rest of the post.

FoS: Nekka-Lucifer

, but I want to give him a chance to defend himself before I confirm a vote.

Can you be more specific? His post was composed of three reasons. Which part is reasoning which makes him seem more like scum than nekka, and what's the "rest of the post" which you agree with?

[Stewie]

I feel that to be a meaningless post.......
The reason I use elipses to the extreme, is that I want to symbolise a long pause in my speech

That's what the normal ellipsis is for.

[Stewie]

Now, does this set of anyone else's scumdar? Especially after Nabokov has already reiterated how bad it is to vote absentees. My vote is already on Lowell, so

FoS Lowell

for attacking me with a completely bottomless argument.

The fact that Nabokov said something doesn't make it true. Lurker bandwagons are not "bad." I find them to be beneficial, particularly early in the game.

[Stewie]

Sorry Aims... but there isn't much I can add to vote hopping charges.

Not to mention that you kinda needed to make that post to change your vote. It was a helpful post in the sense that you revoted.

Excuse me, but I beg to differ.

Are you saying that lurker wagons are bad, or that you saying something makes it true? I know you are wrong about the former, and also the latter by extension, but I was wondering.

[Stewie]

Nekka, you use too much WIFOM. Stop, please.

What's WIFOM?

Wine In Front Of Me. It refers to a movie where the good guy puts a glass of wine in front of the villain, and one in front of himself, and tells the villain that one of the glasses has poison in it. The villain proceeds to try to think it through the following way: "Obviously, the one in front of me is poisoned. Unless of course, you predicted me thinking this and switched the glasses so that the one in front of me is not poisoned, therefore I should drink this one. Of course, you could have foreseen that I would have figured this out and switched the glasses so that once again, the one in front of me is poisoned..."

The argument goes like that basically forever.

[Stewie]

I find it a little odd that Stewie, HS, and Nabakov all posted without much of a response to my N-L & Hjallti scum duo theory.

I don't respond to baseball analogies.


Seriously though, I think it's more likely for NL to be scum than Hjallti. I do think that there was an overreaction regarding the single vote on him. However, NL voted for several people already (I think it's 7 right now; I lost count) and I think the vote-hopping warrants some attention. As well as other things I and others mentioned. Hjallti may also be scum, but I think NL is scummier, and we can only lynch one person a day.

[Stewie]

I suggest that we lynch the next person who uses a baseball analogy.

[Stewie]

This is another reason I am suspicious of Nekka - he asked for "HARD PROOF" of Hjallti's scumminess. It's day 1! There's no such thing as "HARD PROOF".

When he said that, I was going to make a "blood stains with your DNA on the murder weapon" joke, but I realized that there's no dead body yet so that wouldn't have been so funny.

Nabakov: let NL defend himself, please.

Also, a general announcement: go easy on the double posts guys. A few times it's ok, but it tends to get irritating if you do it all the time.

[Stewie]

A claim of what?

The '(amusment for A Papaya)' bit is because he says that ohh... nvm

A claim as in saying what your role is. I know you are new, so I'll tell you this: it is in your best interest at the moment to tell us what your role is

in your own words

. Do not quote the mod PM.

Off the Mark: don't say stuff like that... it's his first game, so bad play is to be expected. I think it was bad scum play, but even if it's bad town play that comment seems out of line to me. He'll learn, in time.

[Stewie]

Clearly he felt that "no offense if yer a townie" line was enough to justify his early vote. Then as things proceeded, he decided his initial suspicion was justified. It's not a hard concept to understand. I do think it's interesting that you keep pestering him, Nabakov.

If N-L turns out to be innocent, then we may have something to look into with CTD... but there are others will have to be accountable for their actions. (myself included)

FOS: Off the Mark

I think that in this situation it would have been better if you let CTD answer. He should be the one explaining how it was not random.

[Stewie]

It seems that I'm probably the one who's going to be lynched after this 9 page D1...

How about you try to defend yourself?

[Stewie]

Ok, I think I have officially given up...

You never really tried...

[Stewie]

Haha, right.

And I don't think I've ever seen someone give up and NOT get lynched.

And how many times have they been scum? (Just curious)

I only gave up once and I was scum. I was a newbie, and I was 14.

[Stewie]

You shouldn't just assume that SK = knife kill. Sure, that's seems to be the standard, but it doesn't mean that the mod could have done something different here. Two 2 person mafias is also possible, and we may very well have a vigilante.

FOS: bobbyplump for the whole "hey, the day was long, so Aimee might be scum" theory. Even if the mod was waiting for Aimee, he could have been waiting for a different kind of choice.

[Stewie]

You know what? I agree 100% with Nabakov. We need to hear from CTD. I have read other games of his and I know he is a smart guy who usually does solid analysis. So what the heck is he doing here? Is this some sort of playstyle experiment? If so, it seems to me more likely to experiment with a scum or SK role. We need his input so we have something to evaluate.

vote: CrashTextDummie

What exactly makes you think he's more likely to experiment with a scum or SK role? Is there a reason why you find his "new" playing style particularly scummy?

Also, what's with the "At the end of the day, I wasn't sure" post you just made? Are you saying that you weren't confident enough if he was scum or not, but decided to lynch him anyways?

Whether or not it's better to lynch SK or mafia is redundant, unless we know who is SK and who is mafia, and we need to decide which one to lynch. As it stands, I'll conform to lynching anyone who is anti-town.

[Stewie]

What exactly makes you think he's more likely to experiment with a scum or SK role? Is there a reason why you find his "new" playing style particularly scummy?

Let's let him defend himself, shall we?

When I told Nabakov (?) not to defend NL, it was because Nabakov was making assumptions as to what a post NL made actually meant. If NL was scum, he could have said "oh, yeah, that's what I meant." However, I am not speculating about the meaning for CTD's posts. I'm just saying that voting for someone just because they are playing differently is crappy logic; unless you can actually explain why it's more likely for someone to experiment as scum than as town.

On your explanation on the NL lynch, however, good enough of an explanation.

Since we have a new guy, I'm looking forward to his opinion.

[Stewie]

, I always play under the radar. You should try reading one of the games I'm in now. Will post link when game is done.

Don't.

Aimee: to use an argument like that, you need to prove not only that he posts like that as scum, but also that he does not post like that as town.

[Stewie]

I also think it would be good to see him answer those.

Agreed; we need to get this game moving forward somehow.

[Stewie]

Just want to say that I agree completely with CTD's analysis so far. In fact, I don't see him as a big suspect anymore - although some things are still unexplained.

My main question now - why did you vote for A Papaya and FoS Bobbyplumb (something that is still unexplained) but give no reasoning?

That's a good question. He is giving explanations now, but he gave none at the time.

[Stewie]

I'll help pressure

vote:n9v

That's lynch -2, by the way, so careful.

[Stewie]

unvote

I thought the answers were enough. I might have to think about it some more, but for the moment I'll remove my vote.

[Stewie]

If you don't like answers, then don't ask questions.

Ok, that I didn't like, but for now I'll just

FOS: n9v

I'll see if I go further tomorrow, or whenever I get some time.

[Stewie]

A) It wasn't a gut feeling. I thought he was scum.
B) How the fuck is getting emotional and what I'm thinking a paradox?
And C) As I've said earlier, your right, let's not take away any information from this lynch and continue lynching random people.

Unvote, Vote N-N

for being a complete idiot.

Ok, I take aggressiveness to be anti-town (looks as if you are using strong language to make your point seem stronger than it really is) so I'll

vote: n9v

[Stewie]

I will

unvote

so that nobody drops the hammer before you post your analysis, but I agree, N9V sees like today's lynch. What you said, and I also find it kinda early for a vigi to kill, so I'm thinking he's a sk trying to claim vigi... he could also be mafia, but I think that a sk is more likely to claim vigi than a goon.

[Stewie]

It was between OTM and Lowell, because they bothed seemed scummy to me. But i've played a game with Lowell, and i know how he acts when hes town. And he definetly didn;t act liek he was town.

Why didn't you consider, you know, not killing?

Also, as OTM said, you really didn't have to comment on the kills.

[Stewie]

2. Stewie

Interest to hunt scum seems pretty low. Most of his posts are comments on token bits of analysis/theory, or questions for players to clarify certain statements. The only real commitment he made so far was to his vote on N-L.

What I find interesting is the fact that while he made (what I consider to be) the original case against N-L, and confirmed

once

that N-L is his preferred play, he never actively pushed for the lynch. I get a sense of apathy from his posts during this time, which indicates to me that he may have been laying low after having gotten the ball rolling, leaving the grunt work to others.

This changed somewhat once N-L came close to being lynched:

A claim as in saying what your role is. I know you are new, so I'll tell you this: it is in your best interest at the moment to tell us what your role is in your own words. Do not quote the mod PM.

How about you try to defend yourself?

You never really tried...

Curiously, the feeling I'm getting from these posts is that he's talking to a townie, and knows it. At the very least, they don't sound like words coming from a man who's ready to lynch the person he's talking to.

As for D2, I don't see any real scum-hunting efforts from him at all until he joined the ~N9V~ action.

Here's a couple of questions for you, Stewie:
Apart from ~N9V~, who do you think is scum? Who do you think is town? You've been a shadow so far (which is somewhat of a contrast to Mini 380, the last game we played together).

Right now, I can't really say that apart from N9V I'm convinced anyone else is scum, but I'm getting scummy vibes from Off the Mark Pickemgenius (however not his replacee) and bobbyplump.

As for me making the case against NL and then not posting much, it's true, but I was simply waiting for a direct response to my post, which I never got. I probably waited too long, but I believed that he would eventually answer them. I was wrong.

[Stewie]

Also, I said I was suspicious of Stewie a while back, but I never laid out my case against him - it is somewhat similar to CTD's:

Although I was the most vocal about Nekka's scumminess, I wavered a lot about whether or not he was actually scum or just acting scummy. Stewie never wavered. Whenever the bandwagon started to go off the rails, Stewie was there to subtly nudge it in the right direction. Now this could be possible for a misguided townie to do, as well, but since he never expressed doubt about N-L, (as far as I remember, anyway) it makes me think he knew the truth already.

Posts where Stewie exhibits this behavior:

snip

I realize that these posts do not mean that Stewie is definitely scum. It is simply my evidence that Stewie subtly kept Nekka's bandwagon headed towards a lynch on Day1 and did not express any doubt in his scumminess.

If someone is acting scummy, the first thing I think is that they are scum. I voted for him because I thought he was scum (or at least that he could be scum) and he said nothing to change my mind. What you call me trying to nudge the bandwagon in the right direction was actually me trying to get NL to defend himself. I never expressed doubt because I never really thought he was

town

; he certainly wasn't acting like it.

You also quoted a bunch of my posts, but didn't really say why any of them is scummy, so I can't really defend myself against that... therefore, I won't.

This is a pretty good idea. We could leave him alive and see if/who he kills. That would give us more info for sure. If we lynch wrong though, and he kills town, and mafia kills town - yikes, we are not going to recover from that. So it would be quite risky.

No, it's a terrible idea, unless you actually don't think N9V is the SK. You even said it yourself, later in the same paragraph, it's a risky move. Better play it safe and lynch someone we are pretty sure is scum rather than leave them aside for later to go after something that's not that certain.

[Stewie]

I meant "good idea" as in "something good to think about" - not sure if the risks outweigh the benefits yet. Since YOU seem to think it is a terrible idea though, it makes me think we should do it.

From a scum perspective, of

course

it's a terrible idea. This doesn't necessarily mean it is the best move for the town though. We need others to weigh in.

I knew you'd say something like that, that's why I said that even you seem to think it's a risky move. If, of course, we get another player which we are reasonably sure is scum, then we can leave n9v for tomorrow, but right now n9v is the right choice. Since CTD already posted what he wanted to post, I will re

vote: N9V

[Stewie]

Indeed, that is why I unvoted. It is a strange situation at this point apparently. It would be nice if some of the more experienced players would put think is a clear perspective.

Is my C9-scenario as likely as I think it is?
Is that scenario desirable over a (5T-1M-1SK) sort of thing we might achieve by lynching mafia (risking 4-2-1 anyway)?

Here's my clear perspective:
-N9V makes comments on how there might be a sk.
-When asked to claim, N9V claims vigi, which is what you'd expect a sk to claim.
-Further, he says he killed lowell. This contradicts the fact that earlier on he was speculating about the existance of a sk. If he was really a vigi, he wouldn't have done that.
-Put all those things together and it becomes pretty clear what the choice for tonight should be.

If you are unsure on whether we should lynch him or try to lynch scum, think about it this way: He's most likely a sk, so if we lynch him we'll have 2/3 scum and 6/5 town. Worst case scenario, it's the latter (3 scum and 5 town), the mafia kill a townmember and we are down to 4 townies against three scum, or lynch or lose. That's pretty bad, but if we let N9V live and we lynch wrong, that would mean 3 scum, 1 SK, 4 town (again worst case scenario). If nothing goes the town's way, two town are killed (or a town and a sk) so it's 3-1-2 or 3-0-3 and the scum has half the town, so they win. Therefore, unless we have someone we are sure is scum, the best play is to lynch N9V.

[Stewie]

O.K Stew, lets take your reason into perspection. Lets say i

am

an SK. wouldn't you want me around for this night? Because The mafia would hit me, and I would get one morre chance at getting a mafia member. Either way, wether I'm a vig o an SK, today is not the day I should be lynched. Other than that, it's up to the doctochoose wether to protect me or not.

Why would mafia try to kill you if they can lynch you? Keeping you alive just gives you an extra night, in which you may or may not kill a mafia. From a mafia perspective, it doesn't really matter whether the town lynches you or not as long as we don't lynch one of them, because there's roughly an equal chance of you killing a town than killing a mafia. From a town perspective, you gotta go as soon as possible so you stop killing.

[Stewie]

It might be better to wait before lynching, that way we can discuss the game a bit more rather than having a quick day with no info gained at all.

That being said, some of bobby's posts gave out a weird vibe, so I'm most likely going to vote for him too, just later when enough discussion took place.

[Stewie]

I've seen 3 scum + SK before in a mini. Might be different because it started at night, but I really don't know what sort of difference that makes.

[Stewie]

Right, but could you please post the analysis you did that led you to investigate bobby? Right now it's your word against his. I'm leaning towards believing your word, and it would help a lot if you'd actually post the analysis.

[Stewie]

Well, kinda knew something like this would have happened. I am the totally awesome gun shop owner. Basically, if anybody targets me to kill, they die too. However, investigation results turn up the opposite of what they should, due to the insanity of my role. Basically, if someone targets to kill me, they die. If someone targets to investigate me, they get the opposite of what they should (much like a miller would, but with the added power). Think it through, from a balance point of view, it makes perfect sense to have such a role, if of course there are thee mafia in one group (which I think is likely, since two mafia would be unbalanced against the mafia).

As for your "analysis"

First you say that there was only one interaction between me and bp, then you post three others. Sure, they weren't pretty strong, but can you find many interactions I had with players other than NL? Also, you say my reasons for voting NL were inconclusive? WTF? Quote them and explain how they were inconclusive. You'll have trouble because what do you know, they were not. The guy was votehopping (very scummy) and when asked about it and other things he never really answered (avoiding questions is also very scummy). How is that inconclusive? The fact that I arrived at the wrong conclusion does not mean it wasn't the best conclusion possible with the information available at the time.

FOS: OTM for the quick vote. We are quite possibly at lynch or lose; it's no time to get sloppy with our votes.

[Stewie]

I doubt it A GF(investigation immune)+2 goons+SK is wickedly unbalanced IMO.

Since the game is basically over, I'll just say that that is in no way unbalanced. I don't understand why so many of you thought it was.

[Stewie]

Stewie mentioned killing Aimee on Night 2, and me and NN thought Hijalti instead.

I think I did it again night three.

[Stewie]

Stewie mentioned killing Aimee on Night 2, and me and NN thought Hijalti instead.

I think I did it again night three.

Um, why was I picked? I wouldn't call this one of my crowning achievements, although I was the doc. Was I dangerous?

You were lurking. I figured you had a powerrole and were purposely lurking to not give any tells.