Mini 416 - AM Mafia - Game Over D:

[Guardian]

I'm probably gonna be replacing in for fircoal. I have not yet (re)read the game completely, so I have no idea what fircoal's perceived or actual alignment is. Watch out, scum/town, depending on the PM Skruffs sends me!

!

[Guardian]

[bm]don't worry I always act scummy. i am therefore probably town[/bm]
lol, I just wanted to get acting scummy out of my system for this thread .

[Guardian]

Hey guys!

I just got my role, and I am Pro-Work aligned, whatever that means.

I think it means that I am a townie? I don't have partners or anything. If my predecessors did any claiming, or anything else you think I should be particularly accountable for, if you could link me to it that would be great. I will do my complete reread and analysis when I return from errands today!

:hugz:
Guardian

[Guardian]

Well, unless Skruffs is crazy we are at lylo. And I posted that as soon as I read my role PM to try and let you guys know that that was my immediate reaction upon getting it. Everyone else came up as Anti-Sleep, and my PM says Pro-Work, so I though that that might be slightly different?

Though you have commented upon me, you haven't given me much information in terms of if there is anything I need to address; I will start the read as soon as I get time for it (things came up today unexpectedly) but if there is anything at which my attention should be directed I would like to know what it is! Panzer, you say fircoal left badly; maybe it will be obvious to me in my re-read, but if not then I'd like to know what you are thinking.

I may do the full read now before sleeping... if so, then expect many posts in a row.

[Guardian]

Two things I want to mention before I do a full re-read (I did a super quick skim to get the gist of who was lynched and who was on wagons)

1) I guess only one or two players were called Anti-Sleep instead of Pro-Work, so that's a null tell, I didn't know this though.
2) Why are we not voting no lynch at lylo with almost certainly 2 scum and 4 town? There have been only, what 2 power roles, and both were one shot. If I missed any important claims that make this bogus, I will address this after the re-read, but 4 town + 2 scum seems like an easy no lynch and see if anything useful happens at night scenario. Obviously, before we do that, I want to get my thoughts out there on the players.

*goes to read*

[Guardian]

Well... Reading this game was annoying. And the last few pages were crucial, what with two claims and night happenings.

I am unsure as to whether no lynch is the play. I am thinking not... If Panzer is a roleblocker, he could get lucky and buy us an extra day with a block, even if we mess up now. If there are two roleblocker... well, then one of them hasn't come out in the open and is scum :[.

Scum combos:

Capt_Fantastic with
Cog works.
Elias works.
Jingolaw works.
Panzer really works.

CoG888 with
Elias works.
Jingolaw really works.
Panzerjager doesn't work.

Elias_the_thief with
Jingolaw works.
PanzerJager doesn't work

Jingolaw with
Panzerjager doesn't work.

Really, anyone + Cpt Fan seems appealing....

Ripley left his random vote on the day one lynch all day, and came up with no original reasoning for it. He also actively lurked. Also, Cpt_Fantastic's vote on shea to me reeks of scum not caring who they lynch. With four to lynch and zero danger of a quick lynch off of one vote, I will

vote: Cpt_Fantastic

.

[Guardian]

Yeah... I did a re-read of today's posts, and I still feel good about giving CF the axe. His scum partner I am unsure about (I hesitate to post my reasons about other players because then if I am NK'd it gets all WIFOM), but CF looks like a good lynch to me.

If Panzer and Cog are town with true claims, I have very, very good ideas of who they should target tonight, both if CF comes up scum (I am very hopeful of this) or if CF comes up town. I hesitate to suggest directing them; all I ask is that they consider very carefully what the play should be.

Wait a second.... Today is day four!!! They only claimed two night actions each!!! WTF!?

unvote

. I still feel OK about CF, but

heavy FOS: Cog and Panzer

.

[Guardian]

Yeah, I think CoG (and you?) only claiming two is very sketchy...

I don't know man. All I know is I blocked PBuG night 2. and I pretty sure I blocked Ripley Night 1. I don't know what happeneed to you night 1.

I missed where you claimed a third, even when re-reading your posts and searching for the text "block". Could you link/quote where you posted three?

Right now my bet for scum is Jingo along with CPT.Fantastic. Most of why I think CPT. is scum was lost in the crash and he has resorted to lurking and laying very low.

But now you are very suspicious of me for going after CPT, when I say it looks like he could possibly be scum with any other player? Especially when my reasons for going after him are linked heavily to Ripley's play? Please explain.

[Guardian]

Elias, did you in fact not have any night targets night two?

Panzer, for this following theory to be true, you need to have targeted someone other than TSQ last night. Obvioulsy, I will not believe you unless you quote where you said this earlier (I still can't find it).

Theory:

Cog, you are definitely scum.

Here's why. You said Panzer must be the mafia role blocker, who blocked you night one and PBug night two and night killed TSQ night three. This is plain crap. A mafia roleblocker would have his goon buddy target the victim, and use his roleblock on someone. Even if you are saying that he targeted TSQ with the roleblock and the kill, he would have had to target him AND roleblock him. That just makes no sense for a mafia member to do.

Panzer pretty much can't be scum if you are scum imo. I am thinking strongly that Cog and Cpt fan must be the scum pairing for the reasons I outlined.

No votes though, until Panzer shows me where he claimed a night three action...

I actually am almost more comfortable with killing CPT fan first, still, since he + panzer OR he + Cog make the most sense right now to me. Even though it might mean a powerful role gets NK'd, I almost think we should mass claim...

Thoughts on all this?

[Guardian]

not hammering. either I am scum with panzer (not true) or I am not scum.

I still think Jack and Cog are the scum group. Either way someone should unvote, I think Jack is scum and this sucks .

[Guardian]

Look, Jack, that's great and all, but I think you are scum. I think I caught Cog in a lie, and I think your predecessor's actions were obviously scummy.

Panzer getting lynched today looks like it will result in a town loss, to me.

[Guardian]

People, please read my logic and analyze; jack is doing a good job acting (or I am just really really off about these things) and I think I found the scum pair.

[Guardian]

Hey, Jack. Anyway, I think Guardian and Jack are the scum pair. This seems like major distancing from Guardian.

Wow. This is such obvious crap logic that I am tempted to vote you right now. You do realize that the town is at lylo, right? And that you are at lynch -1? And that if Jack and I are scum,

I would have hammered and won the game already!!

Seriously, I want to think it over a wee bit more, but that logic alone almost gives me enough reason to lynch you. Painting me at scum from your point of view makes absolutely no sense, if you are town. Address this, now!

And screenshots of my PM box are coming if Skruffs allows it.

You know he won't, and asking for him to let is such mod WIFOM that... Nah, I will still take my time.



Cog, I thought you said Panzer must have blocked you night one (meaning you buy his roleblocker claim). You then said that he was lying about his claim and he must be scum. You are now on a -1 wagon on him at lylo. You

didn't

say that Panzer must have blocked you night one. My bad.

I am now very confused as to how you got no result on PBug. How do you explain this?

[Guardian]

Also, I note that Panzer never claimed that he blocked TSQ night three. Whereas Cog did (although not explicitly) claim that Panzer targeted TSQ night three.

Panzer

, I still await your quote of you claiming you blocked TSQ night three.

If you do not address this somehow in your next post, it is very likely I will lynch you

.

[Guardian]

Elias, Panzer suggested that he would quote a PM from the mod.

I did not suggest that he do so

, he said that he would and I called him out on it because the idea is completely mod WIFOM.

Mod

prod Jingolaw, we are at lynch -1 at lylo and he hasn't posted since I and Jack got here.

Luckily, Elias isn't scum, or is scum with PJ. I am really thinking that I am right about at least one of Cog + Jack. The thing is, with six town left and four to lynch, barring scum bussing to confuse us, which they might, we need all four townies on the scum wagon for it to work. They only need two townies to slip up for us to lose.

Elias

, did you have any night two actions?

[Guardian]

ebwop?: Oh Elias, I get what you mean now. He said he claimed

in the thread

that he blocked TSQ night three. I want him to quote

that

.

[Guardian]

I am uncertain as to whether you should make a full claim, but if you had any night two actions that is very significant. Did you?

[Guardian]

I've been thinking about it, and I am thinking a full claim can't hurt us... There is just too much uncertainty (and we should play as if we are at lylo) that the costs of making a full claim (bye bye power roles) don't outweigh the benefits (giving us more information to go on).

Propose: mass claim

. I think if we get a majority for mass claim, it is a good thing to do, more likely than not. If we do mass claim, I'd say pj needs to claim his flavor, then Cog needs to pick someone to claim flavor + abilities next, and so on and so forth.

[Guardian]

And I was roleblocking him thinking he could be a godfather.

Wow, I am dense. PJ, no need to go quote this for me. It still doesn't make you town... But my supposed "catches" on the re-read were non-existent.

Cog, so you are saying that PJ is mafia, and that someone else is the mafia roleblocker? That is plausible, but not necessarily true. If we mislynch here, we lose, I don't think getting role information is a bad idea.

[Guardian]

PJ, I am not assuming that you are scum. I want a mass claim because I want to make sure we lynch right today. PJ, before I start the mass claiming, I want to hear from you what your flavor is for your role. I know we are in Little Italy, but this game obviously has significant flavor.

I at this point really would not be opposed to a Jack lynch today, for reasons I said earlier. Like I said, I could see Jack as being scum with anyone in the game.

Elias, I am not scum. Like, I really hope PJ isn't scum, because if we lynch him and he is scum, then the town will likely mislynch me tomorrow. This endgame is hard, because I can see anyone as being scum... I will definitely very carefully re-read the last few pages before I put a vote on anyone at this point.

PJ, claim flavor, and I'll start the mass claim.

[Guardian]

I am a coffee machine, I brew coffee in the morning to help the dude get up so that is why I am Pro-Work. I would have abilities because of my nice smell and early morning coffee alarm, but I am in the kitchen and too far away so I am a

vanilla townie

.

I definitely want Jack and Jingo next, but I only get to choose one...

Jack

, you're up.

[Guardian]

Or, if we are at lylo, the town wants as much info as possible to make a correct decision. You definitely were trying to press for a hammer. Why? Because it would win the game? Claim please.

[Guardian]

What if there are two roleblockers in the game, Panzer, and a mafia roleblocker? This game has had crazy roles. You and Jack are either commendable townies, or scum trying to push us back onto Panzer.

I'm guessing there were two scum, a sk, and the town. There could be two sks and the town, but that doesn't seem very balanced to me. Also PBug's role, Anti-Work, Anti-Town, makes me almost sure we have two mafia among us. Suggesting that we are not at lylo is... bad?

How is a mass claim going to hurt us at this point? I can see it possibly being unnecessary, but how is it going to hurt us? Giving the mafia a chance to kill power roles? That being said, I am most suspicious of PJ at this point because he accepted my misread on Cog and he asked for the WIFOM pics of his PM box (even after saying he deletes all PMs).

[Guardian]

We won't be at lylo tomorrow if we lynch pj.

That is incorrect, unless you mean that you are scum and there will be no tomorrow if we lynch PJ.

From a town perspective, you are misrepresenting the information to the town, and that is scummy. Assuming we do have two scum left, we are at lylo for the rest of the game unless we get a successful doc protection or roleblock tonight after lynching scum.

So we basically are at lylo for the remainder of the game, unless we decide to no lynch at some point.

No lynching today is looking more and more appealing, as the scum will likely remove another scum possibility, and it will be easier for the town to make an informed decision.

[Guardian]

:/. I will do a re-read at some point, but I don't think that the logic that is currently there is enough to get me to vote PJ. I am feeling Jack much more at this point. The PJ/Cog contradiction makes no sense to me... but what if we did have two roleblockers? PJ may be the right choice, I do need that re-read.

[Guardian]

Hmm. I did a re-read, and I can't see Panzer being pro-town.

vote: Panzerjagger

.

Suspecting me and Elias as a scum pair did it for me; if Elias and I are a scum pair, then we would have lynched Panzer already, gotten off a night kill, and won.

I agree that Panzer is the lynch now... on to the final day.

[Guardian]

You were at lynch -1. I didn't hammer. The only way I could be scum is if I was scum with you. Your are just trying to confuse the town as much as possible before you die.

[Guardian]

Panzer, are you dense? From your perspective, you have absolutely no way to be suspicious of me. The only possible scenario in which I could be scum is if I was scum with you.

There were quite a few things I learned going through the re-read, but I don't want to share them at this time, as it will only help your confederate decide who to NK.

[Guardian]

If you aren't scum, you definitely are losing the town the game by being so silly. But I am sure you are scum. Do you want to self hammer and help speed this up?

[Guardian]

*_*_*_* Vote Count - 6:25 AM *_*_*_*

“No day is so bad it can't be fixed with a nap.”

~ Carrie P. Snow

Panzerjager -3- (Jingolaw, Jack, Guardian)

Guardian -2- (Panzerjager, Cog888)
Not voting -1- (Elias_The_Thief)

With 6 alive, it takes

4

to lynch.


********************************

Good, Cog isn't scum, or is scum with PJ.

PJ is obviously trying to look like he is distancing with me to make me mislynched tomorrow.

Lynch PJ, now, please.

[Guardian]

Look, Panzer cannot have any reasonable suspicion of me. I had the opportunity to hammer him earlier, and I did not, yet he keeps being suspicious of me. He is obviously scum. I am really afraid that I will be mislynched tomorrow.

Elias, I don't want to reveal any information because I wanted a mass claim to make sure the town (myself included) made a good decision. However, it has become clear to me through Panzer's obvious bad logic that Panzer is the only possible decision.

Since I didn't hammer he cannot have any reasonable suspicion of me, yet he has failed to acknowledge this in any way. Either he is a complete idiot and fool, or he is scum.

.

[Guardian]

Panzer, if you are indeed town, you lost us the game, at least as far as convincing me is concerned. The only group not including you I see as feasible at this point is Jack-Jingolaw, but your behavior has made me almost certain you are among the scum.

I, like Jingolaw, am pretty much decided, and don't see much reason to post anymore... If Panzer keeps coming out with the same dumb accusations and bad logic, I will come back and keep saying it's dumb... but please, Cog/Elias, one of you put him out of his misery.

[Guardian]

Why are you scum? BECAUSE WE ARE AT LYLO, I HAD A CHANCE TO HAMMER YOU, I DIDN'T HAMMER YOU, AND YOU ARE STILL TRYING TO CAST SUSPICION ON ME. DOCTOR OR NOT, THE PLAY IF I AM SCUM WAS OBVIOUSLY TO HAMMER YOU IN A REASONABLE SOUNDING FASHION, AND THEN GET A NK OFF, PUTTING THE TOWN AT 2-2, and a SCUM WIN.

This is not hard to understand, and your failure to address it in any way makes me certain you are scum.

[Guardian]

If I were scum, which I am not:

Chance of doctor protecting whoever we decide to kill, assuming there is a doctor, is 2/3 * 1/4 = 1/6 chance. Say they lynch me, and we get the next nightkill in.

Lynching my scumbuddy = 1/2 chance. So, if I am scum, you think I didn't hammer on a 1/12 chance that a doc protects, and that I assumed there is a doc with so many other power roles floating around? Give me a break!

Lynch the scum, this argument is so flawed I can't believe I am still engaging in it.

[Guardian]

Cog, total

WIFOM

logic there. Panzer, as a townie, has no reason to be suspicious of me. His alleged suspicion of me is the only reason I need to lynch him at this stage in the game.

We are at lylo; it is just the same situation as if we were in an 2 town 1 scum endgame with Panzer, you, and I. Panzer votes you, and I don't hammer. He then unvotes you, and says he has suspicion of me. My not hammering there confirms that I am town.

Similarly, my not hammering panzer earlier here confirms to him that I am town. His supposed suspicion of me is BS, he cannot possibly have such suspicion, and from that alone I can infer that he is scum. I also picked up some stuff on him and on others in the re-read, but I have no inclination whatsoever to share those thoughts until tomorrow.

[Guardian]

You are ignoring the possibility of a second roleblocker or a doctor.

O RLY?

[Guardian]

Elias, what are your thoughts on all this?

From my perspective, Panzer + someone = scum, or Jack + Jingolaw = scum. I don't see any other scenario making sense.

[Guardian]

.

Let's assume Panzer is town. He is at lynch -1 at lylo (the doc/rb argument is crap, period). I fail to hammer him.
What would he assume my alignment is? Town right? Like, no possible way I could be scum, right? No???

And then he votes me. I can't believe three people disagree with me here, because only two of them could be scum. My argument is NOT WIFOM. It is clear cut, obvious logic. If I am scum, I hammer, theoretical doc doesn't get absurdly lucky, scum wins.

I am really beginning to reconsider whether or not Jack is the better target.... He is the one who I thought was scum from the beginning.... I don't see how people are not understanding that Panzer has no reason to think I am scum, though.... Not understanding this argument is.... sad really. Panzer, if town, cannot be suspicious of me; he can ONLY be suspicious of Jack + Jingolaw, because those two were the only ones who did not have an opportunity to hammer.

Wow, this logic is so obvious, yet someone who is not scum is doubting it. I am at a loss...

[Guardian]

To get back to Guardian, his alignment depends entirely on PJ's. If PJ is scum, im convinced that Guardian is.

I am tempted to unvote solely because of that assertion; if that is how you are going to read it, then the town is screwed tomorrow even if PJ is scum and we lynch correctly....

Though Elias could be scum with PJ; I am not feeling that though. Maybe PJ is town and is correct about Jack and Jingolaw....

Cog not hammering is interesting information...

unvote

for now, I've given you all plenty of opportunities to hammer... Maybe PJ

is

town, has been suspecting me with really bad reasoning, and Jack and Jingolaw are the scum? I need to think about this a bit.

[Guardian]

good game. I'm amazed we pulled that out, why did you guys vote for guardian?

Scum combos:
Capt_Fantastic with
Panzer really works.

Ripley left his random vote on the day one lynch all day, and came up with no original reasoning for it. He also actively lurked. Also, Cpt_Fantastic's vote on shea to me reeks of scum not caring who they lynch. With four to lynch and zero danger of a quick lynch off of one vote, I will

vote: Cpt_Fantastic

.

Why are you scum? BECAUSE WE ARE AT LYLO, I HAD A CHANCE TO HAMMER YOU, I DIDN'T HAMMER YOU, AND YOU ARE STILL TRYING TO CAST SUSPICION ON ME. DOCTOR OR NOT, THE PLAY IF I AM SCUM WAS OBVIOUSLY TO HAMMER YOU IN A REASONABLE SOUNDING FASHION, AND THEN GET A NK OFF, PUTTING THE TOWN AT 2-2, and a SCUM WIN.

This is not hard to understand, and your failure to address it in any way makes me certain you are scum.

Wow, this logic is so obvious, yet someone who is not scum is doubting it. I am at a loss...

I'm going to go ahead and say that I found both scum and take no blame for this loss. Well done Panzer, we had you....

[Guardian]

I didn't get myself lynched... Cog and Elias lynched me.

Props to Jingo for being right and sticking to it.

[Guardian]

Meh, Elias and Cog just get slops.

[Guardian]

You played well, but with Jack busing you, I would have expected either Cog or Elias to see my logic and see through your sham.

[Guardian]

You and Jack were definitely the sucm pair. I saw some connections, and possibly Jack tell. Jingo was confirmed town. You at a few points in the game made it obvious you were more interested in looking for SK than mafia.

If we lynched you, we had the game. Not bad for my first game ending on here.

[Guardian]

Yeah, good game Skruffs thanks for it. Well done scum, I am just frustrated because I had you two and Elias and Cog slipped it up.

[Guardian]

Last post...

good job scum, you zoinked the town well.
I am still incredibly frustrated with Cog and Elias. I am going to link here in other games when I am sure people are scum but people ignore me...

Setup was good, fun, and balanced.

Thanks all.