Mini 443 - Tapioca Mafia - Game over!!

[Shanba]

Vote: Aimee

Cause I beat her in a scumchat game

Accents are there for a reason! You can't just ignore them, it's like ignoring random letters in peoples words .

é.

[Shanba]

All people should have accents in their names. The very fact that I do not makes me unworthy... From now on, I shall be known as Shânba <.<.

[Shanba]

What this game needs right now is a good bandwagon.

Unvote, Vote: Ripley

Yes, I like sounding like I know what I'm doing.

[Shanba]

So lemme get this straight: you're calling your own vote scummy?

unvote Vote: MightyFireball

[Shanba]

I know, good isn't it

MightyFireball: Yes, that was a serious accusation. You say a wagon is growing suspiciously quickly but jump on it yourself?

[Shanba]

Uhm, you what? I like random bandwagons. It's fun. Espeically day 1

Kabenon, I assume that was a misquote...? I didn't ask anyone's permission to jump on the bandwagon, in fact, that's sort of what bbb is attacking me about.

[Shanba]

MightyFireball: Yes, that was a serious accusation. You say a wagon is growing suspiciously quickly but jump on it yourself?

Uhm, you what? I like random bandwagons. It's fun. Espeically day 1

Ummm... I'm sensing a slight hypocrisy here. You're suspicous of my jumping on a day 1 bandwagon, but then you say that it's fun and you like it? Anyway, in my post, I said that bandwagons are generally suspicious. However, exceptions can be made for day 1 bandwagons, especially when the game hasn't really gotten started yet, as this one has.

Ah, I see you misunderstand me. I have no problem with you jumping on a wagon, it's the fact that you simultaneously condemned that wagon that leaves me uneasy.

However, looking at both, I think the case on Khelvaster is stronger.

unvote, vote Khelvaster

[Shanba]

hmm. I think Mighty Fireball and Beanbagboy came out of the argument looking better than D8P, but regardless, I think the case on Khelvaster is currently stronger. However,

FoS: D8P

. Note that Khelvaster is now defending D8P. I'd honestly be happy with lynching either one of them at this point.

[Shanba]

whew. That was fun to read through. A pretty fair analysis it seems to me, though I dispute this point:

A vote count reveals that Khelvaster is way out in front. All of the four on it justified their votes, except Shanba. Maybe seeing he could be targetted, he almost immediately unvotes and FoSes d8P, saying he would be fine with lynching either of them. Um, why?

For one thing, I didn't actually unvote. My vote is still on Khel. Also, I'm quite clearly bandwagoning onn Khelvaster again, though this time I feel the bandwagon is justified as others have pointed out. I had nothing more to add, so I left it at that.
D8p is also scummy for reasons others have pointed out, plus I noted in that post a possible connection between D8p and Khelvaster as evidenced by Khelvaster's sudden defence of D8p. It's weak at this point though but I wanted it noted.

Anyway. I admit I've been wagony this game. I like random wagons day 1, as they provide information and get the day started much more effectively than random votes.

I don't know about Earwig yet. Honestly, don't think that lurking in and of itself is scummy: some types of lurking are scummy and some aren't necessarily. I'm trying to worl out what class of lurking earwig's lurking belongs to.

Hmm. There are points i agree with Khelvaster about: fo example, in IRC games I have played a question such as the one he asked in the post he was wagoned for would be, from my albeit limited experience, fairly common. However, his subsequent points have seemed bizarre and in places just plain wrong. So I think he is still the scummiest.

[Shanba]

whew. That was fun to read through. A pretty fair analysis it seems to me, though I dispute this point:

A vote count reveals that Khelvaster is way out in front. All of the four on it justified their votes, except Shanba. Maybe seeing he could be targetted, he almost immediately unvotes and FoSes d8P, saying he would be fine with lynching either of them. Um, why?

For one thing, I didn't actually unvote. My vote is still on Khel. Also, I'm quite clearly bandwagoning onn Khelvaster again, though this time I feel the bandwagon is justified as others have pointed out. I had nothing more to add, so I left it at that.
D8p is also scummy for reasons others have pointed out, plus I noted in that post a possible connection between D8p and Khelvaster as evidenced by Khelvaster's sudden defence of D8p. It's weak at this point though but I wanted it noted.

Anyway. I admit I've been wagony this game. I like random wagons day 1, as they provide information and get the day started much more effectively than random votes.

I don't know about Earwig yet. Honestly, don't think that lurking in and of itself is scummy: some types of lurking are scummy and some aren't necessarily. I'm trying to worl out what class of lurking earwig's lurking belongs to.

Hmm. There are points i agree with Khelvaster about: fo example, in IRC games I have played a question such as the one he asked in the post he was wagoned for would be, from my albeit limited experience, fairly common. However, his subsequent points have seemed bizarre and in places just plain wrong. So I think he is still the scummiest.

[Shanba]

Wouldn't it be better to lynch someone who is showing mafia signs, like MightyFireball or d8p than someone who is silent? If he is silent, he will be in trouble with the mod. It's better not to suspect people if they haven't done anything. That's the game mod's duty, not the town mob's duty.

Please outline on why you suspect d8p, when you defended him in a previous post.

It's in the towns interest to get discussion going, using any method available.

I was using d8p and MightyFireball as two examples of active people who are being suspected. I wasn't implying that I believe d8p or MightyFireball were mafia with that statement. I later went on to voice why I suspect MightyFireball. Again, I don't believe d8p is mafia because he just hasn't seemed contradictory enough. M

Mightyfireball seemed to have been going off pretty strongly as mafia, first making an all-out attack against me, then an all-out attack against d8p, but the fact that he supported pickem as not being scum makes him seem not as scummy to me.

I can't understand his argument against d8p though--

d8p wrote:
As I said, I'm most suspicious of MightyFireball because he continues to go along with what is being said without any attempt to make his own analysis. That shows lack of interest. Yet he has quite a few posts.

Lack of interest in helping the town plus maintaining a high post count equals trouble.

Well, I think the main difference between he and I in this situation is that he didn't make as many posts. That's probably why that post didn't seem hypocritical to him, but you're right, it is. In fact, having fewer posts is probably as bad or worse than having more with little information in them. It, as he said, shows a lack of interest in the game.

Making more posts just for the sake of making posts is shallow. It means more stuff to wade through at the beginning of the game. So is making a lot of posts to accuse various random people at the beginning of the game--those posts have no meaning (randoms are ok, but not one person making 5 randoms. Keep it to 1 random per person.) The game progresses much more easily when posts either start accusing someone, refute the accusation, continue an accusation, or point out trends or logic flaws. d8p seems to recognize this; you don't, MF.

It's this statement that has me very suspicious. D8p made two posts saying he wanted to pressure me, saying in the first one, "I want to light a fire under MF and see what colour the smoke is". It is illogical, therefore, that he should remove all pressure against me after I provided just one example against his argument. If he really was suspicious of me, he probably would've kept the pressure on and not folded at the slightest resistance. In fact, it reminds me of the mild attacks that he mentioned in the latter half of that post. Now

that

is hypocritical, unless I am much mistaken. This leads me to

Unvote

and

Vote: d8p

You put words into d8p's mouth that he didn't use or even imply. You have no idea what his intentions were--he was using a valid argument, and giving you a chance to respond. After you rebutted his argument succesfully, he didn't persue that argument anymore. That's also probably stemming from the way I was crucified after trying to rebute your rebuttals--d8p doesn't want to be accused any more than I did.

I was doing a quick skim through, and I came acrost this interesting post.

I don't really understand why everyone suddenly moved to earwig so fast. Just because he isn't talking much, does that really implicate him in being mafia?

While it could be considered over-reaching, I thought I would voice my opinion on this one. I have suspicion that we have some distantcing scum here. One person acts extremely scummy, gets a bunch of votes on him, and then, with a lynch -1, another scum casually, and after much discussion, puts the hammer down, thereby attempting to clear his own name. This is a strategy I have seen before, where the mafia discussed it beforehand that one person would sacrifice themselves. I don't know if it is the case here, but it seems strange that Khelvaster would worry about the "bandwagon" of two people switching to Earwig. I can only deduce that, assuming that my scenario above is true, that Khlevaster's job is to get the town to vote for him, and then another, eg. Earwig, would put the hammer down. But it is only speculation. What does the rest of the town think?

Or maybe I am really scum acting like I am trying to protect EW and seem like we're collaborating just so you'll lynch him, knowing that he really is a townie. You never know . Seriously though, we should wait another day for him to see what he's like before we draw any conclusions.

On another note, I never noticed the collaboration between d8p and fireball--it was so interspersed with the rest of the stuff that it looked perfectly natural. Now that the quotes were taken in isolation, I have to agree with Earwig that it does look really suspicious.

FoS: d8p

I am still not going to retract my MF vote--between that series of really ambigious posts of his and this new thing between him and d8p, I'm strongly convinced he is scum. What are your takes on this?

Nice flip-flopping there, scum. My vote is very happy where it is. Jumping on a scumbuddy now he's garnered some suspicion, hey?

[Shanba]

that first post was by Khelvaster, quote tags messed up.

[Shanba]

Prodded. I promise I'll actually contribute something to this game soon. I've overestimated how much I can take on and this game has been somewhat de-prioirtized for me with lots of other games that have turned into lurkfests.

[Shanba]

Coppélia: No need to replace me. I have some free time now and a couple of my games are headed towards night so I can devote a bit more time to this game.

HJ: Welcome to the game

Eh. Time for some player analyses.

His second post is the one that picked him up a lot of flak. Honestly, after hearing his defence (post subject 5), I'm inclined to believe it: it's the sort of comment that wouldn't be out of place in IRC. A couple of sentences in that post struck me as odd, but nothing major.

His 5th post (post subject 4 when viewing all posts by Khelvaster) is very scummy.

unvote

I don't know who to vote for--shadow doesn't seem too mafia yo me.

It smacks of indecision and a need to not seem to offensive: both behaviour often exhibited by new scum.

Next on the agenda is the subject of his voting. Despite naming his three subjects by his seventh post he only actually makes a vote 9 posts later. If you add in this little sinppet, it looks like he's decided that because scum vote hop the best way to look like he's not scum is to be really really careful about his vote.

If I were a mafia, I'd be bouncing my vote around as many people as possible, and then if someone who I voted for was falsly accused of being mafia, I could switch my vote back to that person without seeming overly suspicious. However, since that wasn't happening, you decided to take advantage of Riley's random and go after me, since I pointed out a bw, and you thought you could exploit that statement.

. He's still managed to attack just under half the town by this point though.

Next, there's the way he continually asks for confirmation from the town as to whether or not what he's doing is a good thing.

I don't know who to vote for--shadow doesn't seem too mafia yo me.

I'm going to vote for you unless you have any defence to this--I don't see any at the moment, but it could just be me making a colossal error.

Just because he isn't talking much, does that really implicate him in being mafia?

I'll leave it to other townies to judge whether my analysis is correct or not.

Btw, thanks for pointing out that this didn't make sense

A couple of people have mentioned a discrepency in how I acted in the first 3 pages to how I acted since. I stopped looking for random bws, stopped using WIFOM arguments, to name two things, because you guys told me that they were either obviously scummy or obviously noobish--two things I wish to avoid being seen as. Would it have been better for me to have continued trying to bw people and trying to use WIFOM to justify things?

Here's a question--if he were scum, would it be best for us to wait until we lynch/vigilante the other scum to lynch him? I don't know my mafia theory, but I believe that if one person is confirmed beyond doubt as scum, you wait to lynch him until you lynch the other scum. Am I right in this regard?

What are your takes on this?

If I had known that you all would think I was scum, I would have PM'd the mod, instead of posting it in the open to see what everyone else thought about it.

And so on. I'm happy with my Khel vote.

D8P analysis to come later.

[Shanba]

I didn't think there was anything suspicious about the posts between d8p and MightyFireball. I've several times got into an exchange of posts with a player who happened to be online at the time. Is it only Khelvaster who has supported Earwig in finding this suspicious? Anyone else agree?

I agree totally. This supposts my d8P-Khelvaster scumbuddy theory: it looks like Khel suddenly realises that he needs to distance himself from his scumbuddy and therefore finds a weak reason to do so.

d8P analysis is still coming later, though I reserve the right to faint while trying to digest his huge long analyses of doom.

[Shanba]

I never actually stated my case for scumbuddies as such, but I did put forward a suspicion earlier in the thread. I'm not sure what the post number is.

Mightyfireball seemed to have been going off pretty strongly as mafia, first making an all-out attack against me, then an all-out attack against d8p, but the fact that he supported pickem as not being scum makes him seem not as scummy to me.

I can't understand his argument against d8p though--

d8p wrote:
As I said, I'm most suspicious of MightyFireball because he continues to go along with what is being said without any attempt to make his own analysis. That shows lack of interest. Yet he has quite a few posts.

Lack of interest in helping the town plus maintaining a high post count equals trouble.

Well, I think the main difference between he and I in this situation is that he didn't make as many posts. That's probably why that post didn't seem hypocritical to him, but you're right, it is. In fact, having fewer posts is probably as bad or worse than having more with little information in them. It, as he said, shows a lack of interest in the game.

Making more posts just for the sake of making posts is shallow. It means more stuff to wade through at the beginning of the game. So is making a lot of posts to accuse various random people at the beginning of the game--those posts have no meaning (randoms are ok, but not one person making 5 randoms. Keep it to 1 random per person.) The game progresses much more easily when posts either start accusing someone, refute the accusation, continue an accusation, or point out trends or logic flaws. d8p seems to recognize this; you don't, MF.

It's this statement that has me very suspicious. D8p made two posts saying he wanted to pressure me, saying in the first one, "I want to light a fire under MF and see what colour the smoke is". It is illogical, therefore, that he should remove all pressure against me after I provided just one example against his argument. If he really was suspicious of me, he probably would've kept the pressure on and not folded at the slightest resistance. In fact, it reminds me of the mild attacks that he mentioned in the latter half of that post. Now

that

is hypocritical, unless I am much mistaken. This leads me to

Unvote

and

Vote: d8p

You put words into d8p's mouth that he didn't use or even imply. You have no idea what his intentions were--he was using a valid argument, and giving you a chance to respond. After you rebutted his argument succesfully, he didn't persue that argument anymore. That's also probably stemming from the way I was crucified after trying to rebute your rebuttals--d8p doesn't want to be accused any more than I did.

This is one of Khel's earlier posts, in which he defends d8P. The thing that worries me particularly about this is the specific way he interprets d8P's motives/actions and while he accuses Pickem of putting words in D8p's mouth he himself in that very post puts choreography to d8P's actions (as it were).

Now, this could just be a scum buddying up to a townie, however as a townie you would expect that he might make some comment about it or at least affirm whether or not he agreed with Khel's defence of him. In fact, he ignores the issue completely. This stinks fairly badly to me.

More later: this post is unfinished

[Shanba]

Confirm vote: Khel

I really feel you're reaching here for reasons to lynch the claimed vig day 1. If he's not the vig, it'll become apparent through the course of the game. If he is the vig, then there's no reason to lynch the power role.

Also, I don't like the way you are directing the cop. Let him do his thing. If town choose the cop's target publicly, chances are that player will turn up dead tomorrow. If scum influence that choice then the situation is even worse.

[Shanba]

And yet you are still voting for him - why?

[Shanba]

Pickemgenius said exactly what I wanted to say on the subject of the vig: it's not as bad as directing the cop, but you should trust power roles to make up their own minds (as if a player truly is a pro-town power role then being pro-town their decision should be better withou scum manipulation.

Geh. I promise I'll finish the D8p Khel thing soon. But things are piling up for me.

[Shanba]

...
my opinions are...
that you stop directing the cop and let him do his job. Like I said before.

IGMEOY: MFB

. You're still on my suspicions list, if a way below khel/D8p.

D8p: Yeah, I know. I promise you I will get around to it. Possibly day 2. In fact, there's probably not much point continuing that line of thought until I know whether Khel i scum. I need to stop basing conclusions off other conclusions, it's something I've noticed myself doing a lot lately.

[Shanba]

Hmm...
I disbelieve Khel's claim. But if he's lying, chances are he'll mess up sooner or later. And I'm not ready to lynch an uncounterclaimed cop just in case he's not lying.

unvote: Khelvaster

[Shanba]

Alright, I'm back. I've read over the last few pages, and they've blown my mind somewhat. Knowing I'm not scum, and looking at Aimee's play over the day, I don't think she's scum either.

Patrick: heh. I've been saying the two are linked for a while now, though I never finished my analysis of the two (and later dropped it as fruitless, not knowing Khel's alignment). Also, Khel's posts towards D8p have been inconsistent going from defending him to piggybacking Earwig's weak attack on him.

I think this makes MFB less likely to be scum, the way Khel has been pushing for his lynch. I'll have to look over the thread again, I think.

[Shanba]

I doubt cop sanity issues in a normal game. It's good to know I was right about him.

Vote: D8p

is the play for today.

[Shanba]

Urk. A mason claim?

unvote

I stand by my thought that an insane cop is unlikely in a min normal. So it comes down to who I belive more. And to be honest, that's HJ. I just can't see counterclaiming his scumbuddy, then faking a guilty investigation on an innocent. However, if D8p's really is a mason, we can test it:
His partner if it exists needs to come out. Otherwise, I will revote D8p.

[Shanba]

/IN to mod after April 5.

From the mini normal queue.

[Shanba]

Scum mason is very unlikely in a normal game. A normal game is a game that has a fairly basic set of roles and not too much in the way of flavour. What you're thinking of is an open game.

Also, a situation where they arent allowed to claim? I've never heard of that...

[Shanba]

I would ask that noone vote until the mason partnr has come out. Something has struck me.

[Shanba]

it would sort of defeat the point. I'll let you know after (or indeed if) the mason partner claims.

[Shanba]

go ahead

[Shanba]

The strength of a mason is that they are almost certainly confirmed pro-town. The night talking is reallyonly a loose benefit, imo. However, without the other mason coming out, we can't be sure that the laimed mason isn't just lying through his teeth. At least that's my take on it.

[Shanba]

Hrmm... I really would rather he out his mason buddy today...

I may as well explain. If he's town, by outing his mason buddy we eliminate the possibility of a scum counterclaiming his buddy and forcing a mislynch, whereas if he's scum, by telling us his mason buddy we have very likely the name of his scum buddy (as noone else would support his claim). This is what I was talking about earlier, but if he's not going to tell us his partner it hardly matters anyway.

Without his budy claiming, I don't believe the claim.

Vote: D8p

I think that's -1

[Shanba]

I need to reread this game. I'm very happy to have been correct in my suspicions of khel and D8p, recent games had been leading me to a lack of confidence in my scumhunting ability.

I'll go through it person by person.

[Shanba]

Alright, I've read the game. There's stuff there I never even remember happening, which is probably a consequence of my uberlurk day 1. My suspicion list would go something like this:

Aimee
PickemGenius
Elailai(replacing Coppélia)
Rip
HJ

I looked at the Earwig wagon day 1. It's a common scumtactic to, when one of their own is being strung up, push an alternate bandwagon in order to avoid their partner getting lynched. I see Earwig as this counterwagon.

The Earwig wagon at it's height, colour coded for your convenience:

On the lynching block today:

voting: 11/12

Khelvaster

(4) - pickemgenius, Shanba,

beanbagboy

, HungryJoe

MightyFireball

(1) -

Khelvaster

d8P

(1) -

MightyFireball

Earwig

(5) - Ripley,

Patrick

, Aimee, Coppélia,

d8P

not voting: 1/12

Earwig

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.

A little bit later, Khel jumps on, as does HJ.

Looking at this, I think it's likely that one of those three {Aimee, Coppélia, Ripley} is the scum ( I don't think we'll have more than three scum in a twelve player game).

I then looked at the plays of the individual people and I thought that Coppélia/elailai and Ripley looked pro-town, whereas I got a scummy feel from Pickem's posts.

Aimee: She starts off with a weakish attack on Khel, restating what others said. Her giant post (May 19) leads her to Fos an awful lot of people, one of them Khel, while voting for Earwig. I find it odd the way that she attacks Earwig for jumping on the bandwagon of player she felt was scummy. The way it makes most sense to me is if Khel is her scumbuddy. She then posts a grand total of 5 posts in a row without any content at all (active lurking in this way is a scumtell, as t allows the player to look active without contributing).

Then, day 2, she seems reluctant to attack D8p, stating possible nsanity issues as a reason not to vote for him. This seems reaching to me: the best way to confirm a cop's sanity is through lynching. Having got a scum lynch day 1, we could afford to mislynch should there have been an issue with insanity (which as I explained is unlikey in a normal game). Also, she seems to actively look for reasons to keep his partner hidden. I would also note (though this is a weak point) that D8p referred to his partner as a "her".

Ach. I'll finish this later

[Shanba]

Alright, I've read the game. There's stuff there I never even remember happening, which is probably a consequence of my uberlurk day 1. My suspicion list would go something like this:

Aimee
PickemGenius
Elailai(replacing Coppélia)
Rip
HJ

Exactly the same list as Pickem, except with each other in the the respective places.

Looking at this, I think it's likely that one of those three {Aimee, Coppélia, Ripley} is the scum ( I don't think we'll have more than three scum in a twelve player game).

Why? I made it very clear why I voted for Earwig. I was also one of the first on the bandwagon of Earwig (although behind Ripley), and therefore did not "jump on" at all.

I'm not sure quite what you're referring to, but Khel already had a substantial wagon at that point. So yes, I do find you pushing the case on Earwig scummy. Note I haven't finished my alaysis, which is why I haven't explained my reasons for thinking elailai/Ripley look towner than you.

I find it odd the way that she attacks Earwig for jumping on the bandwagon of player she felt was scummy.

I don't understand what this means.

You attacked Khelvaster, saying earlier you thought he was the scummiest. Then, after your giant post, you attack Earwig for jumping on the Khel wagon without reasoning

while simultaneously FOSsing Khel

. That seems very much like playing both sides of the field: you can point back to early suspicions of Khel if you are scum while diverting from his bandwagon.[quote="Aimee]

Then, day 2, she seems reluctant to attack D8p, stating possible nsanity issues as a reason not to vote for him. This seems reaching to me: the best way to confirm a cop's sanity is through lynching.

True. Note that Day 2 lasted all of about 2 pages, and allowed the total quantity of basically no information to be gathered. I FoSed because I was uncomfortable voting for d8P at that stage. I was unsure of HJ's claim at that time.[/quote]Why? How likely did you make it that HJ counterclaimed his scumbuddy and then claimed a guilty on an innocent, thereby eradicating any benefit he could of gotten from his claim by probably being lynched the nsxt day?[quote="Aimee] And as Ripley previously argued (and I share the same thoughts), the d8P wagon grew and acted too quickly. Some things could have occurred to help the town - HJ could have got more information, which would allow him to choose a good target for his investigation. It would have also allowed us to plant some control over the Earwig scenario - he had already proved erratic for his vig of BBB - so therefore he could potentially have been slightly reeled in, so to speak (obviously his choice of MFB was incredibly weak).
[/quote]Alright, I see what you're saying here, but I still find your lack of commitment to lynching D8p suspect. Also, you FOSsed him jsut after the cop claim, when he had not received many votes: how would a vote in that position be dangerous (given you could unvote if the wagon was rushed)?

Having got a scum lynch day 1, we could afford to mislynch should there have been an issue with insanity (which as I explained is unlikey in a normal game).

Just because different sanities aren't common, doesn't mean they don't ever occur. How do you know there isn't a second cop in the game who could have been sane (although, granted, that is highly unlikely now HJ's sanity is confirmed).

I cannot remember seeing a normal game with an non-sane cop in it. At the very worst, I could only imagine him being insane, which would be useful information for us to learn anyway. He was clearly the play that day, and yet you actively avoided attacking him, searching for reasons. Also, it was unlikely there was another cop from the reactions to the two claims.

Also, she seems to actively look for reasons to keep his partner hidden.

Because he claimed Mason. I was, and am, very uncomfortable with Masons claiming (even though he evidently wasn't a Mason).

The only point in a mason is the fact that it's a confirmable claim. It's only confirmable because another player can confirm it. If said player is dead (what would happen if D8p was a mason who got lynched without revealing his partner), then we can no longer be 100% sure he's telling the truth, and it opens the door for counterclaims. If D8p died as scum (as was the case), by revealing his partner, we would have another very likely scum delivered to our hands. (I'm referring to a situation here where the other player confirms the claim). There is no logical reason to keep a lone mason hidden when he can confirm his buddy, especially when said budy has guilty investigation on him.

I would also note (though this is a weak point) that D8p referred to his partner as a "her".

1. If this was actually a point, it would refer to Coppelia just as much.

I never got round to Coppelia. I had to go eat.

2. It could easily be a way for d8P to throw suspicion around, to try and get suspicion onto me (remembering when Khel said you and I were his scum-buddies, this could easily be a similar tell).

Hmm. I hadn't considered that. I'll give you that one.

3. That is obviously stretching.

(though this is a weak point)

I need a re-read. At the moment, I could potentially see everyone with the exception of HJ as scum. I find Ripley impossible to read (he always looks town), but don't really see him as scum at the moment. It is much more likely to be Shanba/pickem. I find it very interesting to note that after Ripley and HJ made some accusations against me (naming me as their top suspect), they both suddenly label me their top suspect.

Overall, I found Shanba's case to be weak and stretching. And I don't understand pickem's post because of the formatting issues. I will re-read, but at the moment, I don't see anything I have to defend myself against.[/quote] As far as I can tell, Pickem's post consists of quotes by D8p and Khel. I can't actually see anything written by him in there, except for his suspicions (and he never noted why).

[Shanba]

OOps. Formatting issue at the end of that post: up to the /quote is still Aimee speaking

[Shanba]

pickemgenius: Actually, I think I'm wrong about hi. A lot of what I found scummy was his active lurking (I hate people who just post nothing at all, it makes me think they're simply posting to look active) but I note that he defended posting lots of posts with little content over few posts with little content earlier. So that's moot.
Also, reading over his posts, I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he said. The only thing that worries me is the way he tries to reassure Khel that his vote isn't going to lead to a lynch in his earlier posts, but I can see a townie emphasizing that just as much as a scumbuddy. I still have a bad gut feeling about him, however.

So my new list goes like this:
Aimee
elailai
pickemgenius
Ripley
HJ

Copp/elailai

Copp jumps fairly late on the Khelwagon, yet while doing so she makes sure to bring new analysis to the table. In post 6, she leaves herself an out, saying that she could see Khel as town or scum at this point. This is definitely something I could see scum doing. Then, she addresses D8p on a point she disaress with, yet avoiding actually calling him scummy. In post 16, she unvotes Khel because D8p has made a defence of him. I'm not sure (and yes, this is WIFOM), that scum would make a post like that, dropping an attack on a scumbuddy because another scumbuddy defended him. However, I will note that she drops off the Khel wagon when it's no longer hot.

re: challenging me/defending Khel: I like it when people challenge me on my assertions, as it gives me a chance to either a) strengthen my argument, or b) see flaws where I previously didn't. It also gives other players the benefit of looking closer at exchanges they may have missed, and drawing their own conclusions. If what you're saying is that you're worried that you're making Khel's case for him and you're not yet sure you want to be...I get that, but I still think you should say what's on your mind. If Khel is scum, such close scrutinty on his posts by many players will help reveal it. If he's town, you're helping the town, period.

I don't like this bit of her post. The way she tris to defend defending scum seems scummy, to me, especially when Khel is lynched as scum.
Her Post 20 is incredibly disingenuous. After saying little about Earwig, and after attacking Khelvaster quite a bit it seems very strange that her vote should come down on Earwig.

elailai: has said little, and what she has said has been about tacics rather than suspicions. I'd like some thoughts from her (it doesn't have to be a full-blown analysis, just something for us to work with).

Now, there's the weak point I noted in my analysis of Aimee (the D8p said "she" thing). Aimee's already convinced me that that's probably not a good tell, though.

Finally, I choose to ignore, currently, the fact that she's investigated innocent. I think the possiblity of a godfather, given the other roles that have been claimed/have died (cop,doc,vig) indicates a fairly standard setup and godfather fits that perception much more closely than roleblocker does. Also, HJ claims to have receive results, and therefore has not been roleblocked (and he almost certainly woud have if there were a mafia roleblocker out there).

[Shanba]

urgh. I just posted in the v/la thread, but the long and short is im having to post from my wii

[Shanba]

I'm back up.

I get a good feeling from Aimee's last post, ironically. She finds some decent points against me, then drops the case on a WIFOM argument (i.e. that scum would not bus both scumbuddies day 1). This would be a completely illogical thing for scum, especially scm under pressure, in her position, to do.

Having said that,

Vote: elailai

[Shanba]

OH NO! NOT BM!

Hi.

[Shanba]

I think we should no lynch, today or tomorrow. If we do it today, that increases our chances tosay and tomorrow. So actually, no lynch today is probably the best idea.

I'd be up for a massclaim, but that one probably should wait for tomorrow, or at least until after we've no lynched.

[Shanba]

Elailai is BM.

Hrm. Pickem makes a few good points, but I can see some flaws with his defence. I'd much rather let Aimee respond to it though, as I need to get a better read on her.

[Shanba]

Hrm. Like I said it's probably worth no lynching today.

Unvote: Vote: No lynch

[Shanba]

Uh yeah, sorry, am here. I still like a BM wagon. I'll dig out my post earlier for why.

Vote: BM

[Shanba]

I think Ripley's death confirms the final Mafioso is a godfather, therefore knowing they wouldn't need to worry about investigations.

thats circular logic, as it is only valid if HJ is honestly town, which is not confirmed atm as far as i can see.

This is true, however, in order for HJ to be scum, the scum have to have been incredibly well prepared. If HJ is scum, that means he:
1)Breadcrumb cop day 1
2)Use said breadcrubs to counterclaim his scumbuddy later that same day, when he got in to hot water.
3)Claim a guilty on his other scumbuddy day 2, effectively condemning him to death (I would also point out here that D8p claiming mason doesn't seem to fit this scenario either, as he seemed to be expecting his scumbuddy's support)

I'm not really taking an HJ scum possibilty too seriously right now, tbh. I do agree, however, that he should announce his guilty.

I don't support an Aimee lynch. The way she's responded to the accusations against her have been solid and look pro-town to me.

I'm not sure what to make of BM's play. I'm getting better at reading him, I think, but it takes a lot of posts before I can get a read. However, his predecessor's actions (as I outlined yesterday) make me think he's the last scum.

[Shanba]

Hi there. Nice to have you with us.

[Shanba]

Shanba: I had actually cast a little suspicion on Shanba quite early when he actually linked Khelv and d8p. I didn't think that a townie could be so good as to make that connection with what I had seen to that point. It seemed more likely to be warning of sorts to scumbuddies, but when he kept it up through day one, I felt he was more likely town. Post 354 seems to risky for scum to make. I also felt that the FoS by d8p is another point toward Shanba as town. Khelv was a much better target at that moment, and there were three other town in that list. I'm starting to have some doubts now though, because he pressed for a no-lynch at the end of D3. Big lesson folks - no lynch = no info!

no lynch =/= no info. We received info from the day yesterday, even though it resulted in no lynch. For example, we now know that Ripley was town, information that you yourself used in your analysis. We also know who supported what lynch, who pushed for no lynch, etc. With 6 alive, our chances of lynching correctly are 1 in 6 then 1 in 4. After no lynching, our chances are 1 in 5 then 1 in 3, a substantial improvement. Also, any information we could have gathered from the lynch itself, we can still gather, as we haven't actually lost a day.

[Shanba]

Geh. BMtown has thrown me.

I'm really torn here. I'm having a really hard time seeing Aimee as scum. I really like the way she responded to the accusations thrown at her days three and four. Her response to my attack on her basically made me 90% sure she's town. If you're scum:
A) Very well played.
B) I hate you.

OTOH, whenever I read Pickem's interactions with Khelvaster I just don't think it's scum bussing him. Even so, he's my top suspect for today.

FoS Pickem

Also, I hate to do this, but I am on a deadline here: I leave on holiday on the 21st. I really want to get this game wrapped up prior to that. I'll try and leave off voting to the last minute, so that we can have enough time to conclude this game properly. I'd really, really hate to lose this at this point.

[Shanba]

Ok. I'm running out of time (just a few hours left), and I'd rather finish this game before I go than have to have someone replace in just for the endgame, which seems like a waste of everyone's time.

Pickem: I have stated reasons for why I think Aimee is pro-town. What do you make of them, and can you give me any reason I should consider voting for you?

Aimee: Why should I vote for Pickem and not you, aside for reasons I gave you in my earlier posts? I'd like you to analyse your own posts and tell me what you were thinking as you made each of them.

[Shanba]

Well, maybe not every post, but the ones you feel are important.

[Shanba]

Thank you for your prompt response.

I don't really have much time left (it's 9 PM here) I'mma give Pickem an hour to respond, and if he hasn't by then I guess I'll just have to place my vote and hope for the best.

[Shanba]

Well, that's the end of the line.

I like how Aimee responded to my question: the idea was to see what she said the motivation of her actions was, a task that is obviously more difficult for scum than town, who have to make up most of it as they go along. She seemed consistent in her approach, and the logic behind what she's done definitely makes sense to me. I have a really, really hard time seeing her as scum.

Pickem, though I said before I liked his interactions with Khel, I don't have such a hard time seeing as scum. But when it comes down to Aimee's pro-town response to her accusers and her analyses today against Pickem's interactions with the known scum, Aimee wins. As such

Vote: Pickemgenius

/crosses fingers. I guess I'll find out if I was right when I get home.

[Shanba]

*punches fist in the air!*

I was right