Okay, so I think I see two misconceptions here that you're either falling to or trying your best to exploit:
1. I don't advocate lynching randomly from the bandwagoners. I don't even
directly
advocate lynching from the bandwagoners today. What I've been trying to say that you've been twisting around is that we shouldn't give everyone on the germy bandwagon a free pass for doing so.
2. The numbers in this game at the moment are weird, partially because of the town nonmajority since Day 2 (Which I'm surprised people don't anticipate more, given how often it happens in the classic 3 mafia + SK mini) and minority now. I throw around numbers to try to give an idea of the
absolute minimum
number of scum in certain groups, given certain perspectives, and try to reason that if a group did something suspicious, then there might be more scum than the absolute minimum.
So on to specifics:
Yosarian2 wrote:I would think the primary goal of any islamist yesterday would be to not be noticed.
It's endgame. You can't not get noticed.
Odds are good that there is probably at least one Islamist on the bandwagon, and there might be two on there, but unless they're complete newbs I doubt that any scum group would pile onto a bandwagon as #2, #3, and #4 unless it'd win them the game on the spot, so I don't think there are three on there.
This is, of course, WIFOM. Not to mention that from the perspective of any townie off the germy bandwagon, there is an absolute certainty of one Islamist on the bandwagon, by the numbers.
In fact, what I would expect an islamist to do would be to sit back and let the town lynch germy without commenting on the bandwagon, and then try to get the town to randomally lynch one of the people on the wagon, which is what you are doing right now.
See point 1. Also, while I obviously can't prove this, I hadn't finished my reread before germy lynched himself, and the entirety of the germy bandwagon was based on history,
which I hadn't read yet.
Zindaras wrote:This is ridiculous. What you're basically implying is that I decided, Page 7/8 (where my argument with LyingBrian started), that Nai was the President and, thus, start the argument with LyingBrian which eventually led to my vote Page 9.
If you wanted to say anything using this, it would be far more likely that I was a Communist, because I'd know LyingBrian's alignment in that case. Instead, you decide I'm Islamist.
It was a possibility, especially given that, in retrospect Nai's post 155 has the kind of certainty that people can get cop-with-guilty-result from and the Islamists have the biggest advantage in picking up tells because they can rule out possibilities and gain something from supporting any certain-looking vote that doesn't involve them. And the way things turned out is a pretty good deal for the Islamists, since they got a free lynch and nightkill that couldn't've hit any of them.
Norinel wrote:sprontalic wrote:Also I don't think TSQ ever led the charge towards germy's lynch. In fact no one did, it was mutually agreed upon.
But it looks like the kind of mutual agreement that's a pile-on influenced by scum- maybe a townie or two had it against germy going into the day, but there had to be at least one scum in that first run of votes, most likely more. (Well, if you're a townie other than Y2, TSQ, spront, or Zind, you know at least two of them are)
Focus on people on the bandwagon, ergo, people who weren't him. Scum includes Communist. What you're doing here is a broad statement, saying "1-3 of those people are scum" (which is, by the way, almost impossible not to be true, whatever random group of 4 people in this game you pick). No specifics, so you can go for whoever seems best later.
See 2. Also, "most likely more". Also, "go[ing] for whoever seems best later" can also mean trying to figure out which ones are most likely to be scum.
Paranoia regarding voting, thinks I'm scummy for putting pressure on lurkers (his predecessor, friday, was among those who I pressured to vote/contribute Day 2). Focuses on the downside of voting, wants to remain cautious. As I said when he made this post, this is
exactly
what the Islamists want to do (not have to vote and let the Commies and Townies kill each other of) and
exactly
why I have been pressuring people to post and have been forcing debates.
Posting is good. Pressuring lurkers is an easy thing for anyone to do, scum or town, that doesn't require you to form an opinion. Voting is dangerous, especially when the town doesn't have the majority. The rewards almost always outweigh the risks, but you've been asking people who aren't voting to vote in a nonmajority situation where the Islamists are most likely to understand the numbers and gain the most from exploting them. Why would the Islamists not want to vote? They know exactly who needs to be lynched for them to win.
There's a sort of repetition of the obvious here, but I'm not sure what it means. Of course if we lynch Islamist today, we're not lynching Communist, and since we need to lynch Islamist today to win if we lynch at all, we can't lynch the last Communist.
There is no point to this post. It leaves all the interpretation up to the rest of the town and allows Norinel to keep a flexible opinion on KingPin, depending on what the rest of the town thinks of it.
That's what they call an observation.
If you weren't sold on germy, you should've said so in your first post. Instead, you merely stated his claim was redundant. You never said germy shouldn't be hammered, which would have been the logical thing to say there, looking at what you're saying here. Instead, you said nothing which could be interpreted as either for or against germy, again leaving room for change later.
The redundant claim was also an observation. Again, I didn't form an opinion because
I hadn't read the thread yet
.
You said absolutely nothing yesterday, and now you're acting like you knew germy was town.
I didn't say anything because I hadn't decided yet, because I hadn't read the thread. I didn't know germy was town. My point with the "not sold" comment was that not everyone agreed he was scum at the time, and it doesn't seem like a majority agreed he was scum.
So we shouldn't do anything, we should just sit here and wait for a deadline or something?
I didn't say we shouldn't do it, just that it'd be convenient for the Islamists. (And, of course, I stated my suspicions right after the bit you quoted) And everyone picking the person they would vote for isn't the only way to progress in the endgame.