Mini 392: Jungle Republic - Game over!


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Post Post #339 (isolation #0) » Mon Dec 18, 2006 9:27 am

Post by Norinel »

All right, I'm here. Haven't reread Day 1 & 2 yet, but some thoughts on what's been posted here and the numbers:
germy wrote:At this point I realize I cannot forestall my own lynch: I'm just an ordinary Republican. But I am curious what my lynchers think about it.
The claim is, of course, entirely redundant. Why bother saying it?

Finding the last Communist is a priority, of course, but because of the numbers, until we find them they need to knock out Islamists too. (For instance, if we lynch a Republican today, the last Communist has to either kill an Islamist tonight or forgo the kill to go for an Islamist lynch tomorrow, or else the Islamists win regardless) This is the sort of silly situation that happens IMO all too often in two scum group minis, especially since we've only lynched town once.
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Post Post #352 (isolation #1) » Wed Dec 20, 2006 6:09 am

Post by Norinel »

Sorry, things have been a mess for me the last few days, and I'm on vacation again starting Friday, but I'll try to finish my reread soon and post something of substance today.
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Post Post #360 (isolation #2) » Wed Dec 20, 2006 3:01 pm

Post by Norinel »

The main thing that caught me on the read was Zindaras. He was the second to vote for LyingBrian after Nai's second or third comment his direction, which'd be a good Islamist play if he caught the seer vibes from Nai as an easy anti-Communist direction to lead the town. (And it's easiest for the Islamists to spot the seer and Communists since they can already rule two more people out than any townie can) What I found more interesting afterwards were his repeated calls for people to vote. Day 2, the town was already only 50% pro-town, and every vote even then could be critical.

I also got weird vibes from KingPin and Lucresia, but I couldn't tie them to anything in particular.

And I feel like we might be able to get something from LB's counting everyone's posts in post 106. Calling out lurkers is such an easy thing for scum to do, because it doesn't tie you to any particular position, but LB choosing to do so then might give us a clue about his partner.

And some things from today:
Thestatusquo wrote:
KingPin wrote:A couple of things.
FOS: Sprontalic and TSQ


I have had TSQ pegged as being scum since D1 and his quick lynch. Yesterday the town screwed up. I think it has something to do with the Islamists trying to railroad the town.
No, might as well claim. I am a plain republican, your read is off, but I hardly think it matters. The islamists have won this game.
I wasn't planning to go for a TSQ lynch at the moment, but that kind of fatalism is so easy to jump on.

And this is also ridiculous:
The islamic group, in my opinion, would not give scum vibes, because they are pretty much a second town, except that they know each other. I don't know if you've ever played with cults before, but the islamists, to me, seem much more likely to act in that manner than in a traditional scum sense. I believe you have to throw your traditional scumdar out the window with islamists, as it is in their best interest to play as town, only scum hunting for the communists.
Just like a mafia, the day game objective of the Islamists is to keep each other from being lynched, just like the mafia. Right now, to win, the Islamists have to force a non-Islamist lynch, just like the mafia would in a 4-3 situation.
Zindaras wrote:Personally, I hadn't even thought about the possibility of Commies doing a no hit...
Then I guess you hadn't read my last post.
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Post Post #373 (isolation #3) » Tue Dec 26, 2006 1:43 pm

Post by Norinel »

sprontalic wrote:Also I don't think TSQ ever led the charge towards germy's lynch. In fact no one did, it was mutually agreed upon.
But it looks like the kind of mutual agreement that's a pile-on influenced by scum- maybe a townie or two had it against germy going into the day, but there had to be at least one scum in that first run of votes, most likely more. (Well, if you're a townie other than Y2, TSQ, spront, or Zind, you know at least two of them are)
Zindaras wrote:Not just that. Not only is your repeated point horribly incorrect, one of the quotes is trying to get people to post. As for "trying to pressure people into voting", that is not at all a bad thing. If there's something the Islamists want to do, it's lie low and let the town and the commies duke it out. Not only that, but if townies don't use their votes, it only gives the scum more power.
I'll concede "repeated"; error in my notes from the long read. Still, pressuring people to vote is a bad thing in a situation where every vote can matter a whole lot. The obvious case is the classic lynch or lose, where we are now, but since the town hasn't had a majority since the start of Day 2, there's no reason not to be cautious. And once a scum group's half of the votes required to lynch (As the Islamists have been since Day 2), misplaced townie votes give the scum more power.
Kingpin wrote:That's why I think it is important to find out who the Communist is and make sure that they do not get lynched today. In addition, we all can agree then that an Islamist must be lynched today.
IMO we cannot lynch the last remaining Communist.
There's a sort of repetition of the obvious here, but I'm not sure what it means. Of course if we lynch Islamist today, we're not lynching Communist, and since we need to lynch Islamist today to win if we lynch at all, we can't lynch the last Communist.
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Post Post #387 (isolation #4) » Sat Dec 30, 2006 11:00 am

Post by Norinel »

Yosarian2 wrote:If Germy was the most obveous choise for the last communist, (and we all seem to be agreed that he was)
Part of my point that started the whole spront-Zin thing was that we weren't all agreed germy was. Four people voted for him in their first post, but that's not everyone, and not a majority. (Coincidentally, it's exactly how many scum there are left, but I think there might've been one or two misled town among the germy-voters) I know I wasn't sold on germy, and I don't see anything that says KP and Lucresia (The other two not voting him) were approaching sold either. I'm growing more and more convinced that the Islamists are trying to get away with the germy lynch by pushing the "Of course he was an idiot" thing.
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Post Post #390 (isolation #5) » Mon Jan 01, 2007 9:51 am

Post by Norinel »

Yosarian2 wrote:So, I guess the question is, would an islamist be more likely to push a bandwagon like that, or more likely to sit on the sidelines and fly under the radar, remembering that the islamist didn't know if germy was the last communist or not and remembering that either way the lynch would not cause an immideate win for them? I don't think that's an easy question to answer, it depends on the psycology and philosaphy of the people involved, and odds are there are probably some islamists on the wagon and some not on the wagon. So I don't think looking at who was on the wagon and who wasn't is likely to tell us who the islamists are.
Just by the numbers, I know there's at least one Islamist and two scum on the germy bandwagon. (Since there are only three townies and the Communist, and I know I'm a townie) If there were two or three Islamists, which I'd be inclined to think was the case, lynching randomly from the germy bandwagon is better than lynching randomly from the entire town. And since the Islamists were just two lynches away from winning, if they could force the lynch on germy easily and write it off the next day by treating it like it was an obvious choice.
Zindaras wrote:
Yosarian2 wrote:Well, you might not have been "sold" on him, but you didn't say anything against the bandwagon either before the day ended yesterday.
Exactly. I'm not liking Norinel right now. Not one of his posts since he's arrived in the game has had me thinking town.
What about them, other than 360? As for yesterday, germy had self-voted before I had time to read everything. I wasn't going to cast or advocate for a lynching vote without the context.
I suggest we all FoS who we would like to vote right now, because voting would be silly, but we do need to get somewhere.
That'll also conveniently let the Islamists know which non-Islamists suspect others and which they need to push for the bandwagon. But since you asked,
FOS: Zindaras
, probably two of Lucresia, spront, and Y2 as the other two Islamists, and I can sort of see where KingPin's coming from about TSQ as the last Commie.
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Post Post #394 (isolation #6) » Tue Jan 02, 2007 4:40 am

Post by Norinel »

Okay, so I think I see two misconceptions here that you're either falling to or trying your best to exploit:

1. I don't advocate lynching randomly from the bandwagoners. I don't even
directly
advocate lynching from the bandwagoners today. What I've been trying to say that you've been twisting around is that we shouldn't give everyone on the germy bandwagon a free pass for doing so.

2. The numbers in this game at the moment are weird, partially because of the town nonmajority since Day 2 (Which I'm surprised people don't anticipate more, given how often it happens in the classic 3 mafia + SK mini) and minority now. I throw around numbers to try to give an idea of the
absolute minimum
number of scum in certain groups, given certain perspectives, and try to reason that if a group did something suspicious, then there might be more scum than the absolute minimum.

So on to specifics:
Yosarian2 wrote:I would think the primary goal of any islamist yesterday would be to not be noticed.
It's endgame. You can't not get noticed.
Odds are good that there is probably at least one Islamist on the bandwagon, and there might be two on there, but unless they're complete newbs I doubt that any scum group would pile onto a bandwagon as #2, #3, and #4 unless it'd win them the game on the spot, so I don't think there are three on there.
This is, of course, WIFOM. Not to mention that from the perspective of any townie off the germy bandwagon, there is an absolute certainty of one Islamist on the bandwagon, by the numbers.
In fact, what I would expect an islamist to do would be to sit back and let the town lynch germy without commenting on the bandwagon, and then try to get the town to randomally lynch one of the people on the wagon, which is what you are doing right now.
See point 1. Also, while I obviously can't prove this, I hadn't finished my reread before germy lynched himself, and the entirety of the germy bandwagon was based on history,
which I hadn't read yet.

Zindaras wrote:This is ridiculous. What you're basically implying is that I decided, Page 7/8 (where my argument with LyingBrian started), that Nai was the President and, thus, start the argument with LyingBrian which eventually led to my vote Page 9.

If you wanted to say anything using this, it would be far more likely that I was a Communist, because I'd know LyingBrian's alignment in that case. Instead, you decide I'm Islamist.
It was a possibility, especially given that, in retrospect Nai's post 155 has the kind of certainty that people can get cop-with-guilty-result from and the Islamists have the biggest advantage in picking up tells because they can rule out possibilities and gain something from supporting any certain-looking vote that doesn't involve them. And the way things turned out is a pretty good deal for the Islamists, since they got a free lynch and nightkill that couldn't've hit any of them.
Norinel wrote:
sprontalic wrote:Also I don't think TSQ ever led the charge towards germy's lynch. In fact no one did, it was mutually agreed upon.
But it looks like the kind of mutual agreement that's a pile-on influenced by scum- maybe a townie or two had it against germy going into the day, but there had to be at least one scum in that first run of votes, most likely more. (Well, if you're a townie other than Y2, TSQ, spront, or Zind, you know at least two of them are)
Focus on people on the bandwagon, ergo, people who weren't him. Scum includes Communist. What you're doing here is a broad statement, saying "1-3 of those people are scum" (which is, by the way, almost impossible not to be true, whatever random group of 4 people in this game you pick). No specifics, so you can go for whoever seems best later.
See 2. Also, "most likely more". Also, "go[ing] for whoever seems best later" can also mean trying to figure out which ones are most likely to be scum.
Paranoia regarding voting, thinks I'm scummy for putting pressure on lurkers (his predecessor, friday, was among those who I pressured to vote/contribute Day 2). Focuses on the downside of voting, wants to remain cautious. As I said when he made this post, this is
exactly
what the Islamists want to do (not have to vote and let the Commies and Townies kill each other of) and
exactly
why I have been pressuring people to post and have been forcing debates.
Posting is good. Pressuring lurkers is an easy thing for anyone to do, scum or town, that doesn't require you to form an opinion. Voting is dangerous, especially when the town doesn't have the majority. The rewards almost always outweigh the risks, but you've been asking people who aren't voting to vote in a nonmajority situation where the Islamists are most likely to understand the numbers and gain the most from exploting them. Why would the Islamists not want to vote? They know exactly who needs to be lynched for them to win.
There's a sort of repetition of the obvious here, but I'm not sure what it means. Of course if we lynch Islamist today, we're not lynching Communist, and since we need to lynch Islamist today to win if we lynch at all, we can't lynch the last Communist.
There is no point to this post. It leaves all the interpretation up to the rest of the town and allows Norinel to keep a flexible opinion on KingPin, depending on what the rest of the town thinks of it.
That's what they call an observation.
If you weren't sold on germy, you should've said so in your first post. Instead, you merely stated his claim was redundant. You never said germy shouldn't be hammered, which would have been the logical thing to say there, looking at what you're saying here. Instead, you said nothing which could be interpreted as either for or against germy, again leaving room for change later.
The redundant claim was also an observation. Again, I didn't form an opinion because
I hadn't read the thread yet
.
You said absolutely nothing yesterday, and now you're acting like you knew germy was town.
I didn't say anything because I hadn't decided yet, because I hadn't read the thread. I didn't know germy was town. My point with the "not sold" comment was that not everyone agreed he was scum at the time, and it doesn't seem like a majority agreed he was scum.
So we shouldn't do anything, we should just sit here and wait for a deadline or something?
I didn't say we shouldn't do it, just that it'd be convenient for the Islamists. (And, of course, I stated my suspicions right after the bit you quoted) And everyone picking the person they would vote for isn't the only way to progress in the endgame.
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Post Post #402 (isolation #7) » Thu Jan 04, 2007 8:34 am

Post by Norinel »

I don't have time to go through everything in your last reply at the moment, so I'll just do this:
Zindaras wrote:
Norinel, Yosarian2
: I'd like to see lists from you, like the ones I asked from LyingBrian and germy.
TSQ: The SL hammer was just plain stupid, and Day 2 things got away from him and to LB mostly because of Nai, as far as I can tell. He's also a couple times (I caught posts 210 and 355) exhibited the kind of frustration that could be frustrated town/nonIslamist today or cornered scum then. Also being one of the most in favor of a seer counterclaim makes him a bit scummier, but again towards Communist rather than Islamist.

KingPin: A few odd things from him: an odd comment after LB's claim where he thought he read town but not seer from him, and asking more than others why chamber was killed N1, for instance. On the other hand, I've gotten more town vibes and fewer scum vibes from him than most of the other players.

Rasta/Zindaras: Rasta only had three posts, so I don't think there's anything to get there. I've already expressed my concerns on Zindaras, and his replies to them today have been about what I'd expected. Still think the Islamists can be more aggressive now than Zind thinks they are (And is being, for that matter). Still my best guess at Islamist.

Cadre/Y2: Cadre was pretty obsessed with SL early on, but didn't really do anything else. Day 2, Y2 went straight for LB when he replaced in, mostly for his participation in the SL bandwagon, but was for a Seer counterclaim when LB claimed. I'm not sure how those two fit together except to help one scum group or the other. Since then, he's also taken the route that the Islamists would be passive, including some particular me-tooing of Zind in his last post. Second most likely Communist, I think, but also a good chance of Islamist.

spront: Very against the SL bandwagon the entire game, which could be a crusade against the ideas or knowing that his scum partners weren't there. The argument with Zin could be trying to clear himself from his responsibility for germy's lynch, or to try to clear everyone's. His last post has just a hint of me-tooing with Zind, if the Islamists are going for a move on the SL bandwagoners (Probably me) now. Possible Islamist.

Lucresia: There were a couple of little things on my read that I didn't like, and the post where she joined the SL bandwagon as the third vote struck me, to say the lease. A lot of her other posts in the early game are what I call "easy"; just a few sentences usually stating the obvious, which is an easy way to keep up activity without sticking your neck out. (Not that my first post in this game wasn't the same sort of thing, but I wasn't up to speed at the time) Possibly scum.

And that's how I get to the matchups I gave in my last post. The Islamists have every reason to be aggressive now and go hard after the weakest-looking non-Islamist, and Y2/Spront/Zind starting to go for me that way looks pretty plausible.
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Post Post #419 (isolation #8) » Mon Jan 08, 2007 3:19 am

Post by Norinel »

Zindaras wrote:I think you're scum. Ergo, this is only good for the town. If someone jumps on another's opinions, he's going to look scummy (which would again be a victory for the lists).
Ergo, you think this is only good for the town. Although I think we're at the point now where townies need to get concrete opinions down so that we can find a best lynch, much as spront'll say later:
sprontalic wrote:Guys can we get some sort of agreement/commitment here. All that's happening at the moment is people arguing with each other but no commitment as to who we should be lynching today. If we going like this the game's just going to die.

I have to back Zindaras up about posting lists now. If no one's willing to stand up and point a finger, maybe we should force everyone to do it so we can get this game moving.
Well, we've seen my list. And if we want lists, I'd also like one from you, since you're my best guess at Islamist who isn't Zind or already getting hounded by Zind.
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Post Post #422 (isolation #9) » Tue Jan 09, 2007 2:11 am

Post by Norinel »

Zindaras, who do you think is/are the most likely Communist?
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Post Post #454 (isolation #10) » Sun Jan 14, 2007 8:13 am

Post by Norinel »

Mystery Hunt was more engrossing than I expected, so I'm still kind of catching up, but one thing to say:
Zindaras wrote:Friday nor Lucresia goes free from the ShadowLurker lynch, and I like how both of you are ignoring it.
Two reasons for that on my end. One is that both of the people you're trying to pin that on have been replaced, and it's hard enough explaining the actions of your predecessors when you knew they had a more complex role than townie to work with. The second is that, in general, Day 1 lynches are less informed than late mid-game lynches, so a misled townie is much more reasonable earlier. In this case, the Islamists have had much more reason to actively pursue townie lynches when they're closer to winning, so I think the germy wagon is a much better place to look.
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Post Post #468 (isolation #11) » Tue Jan 16, 2007 8:18 am

Post by Norinel »

Yosarian2 wrote:Right. But germy WAS the obveous choice.
That's exactly what I've been saying the Islamists should be saying right now.
And the other part that bothers me was, as I said, the way he says he's "inclined to think" are two or there islamists on the wagon. I don't really see any reason to think that would be the case.
From my perspective, where I know I'm a townie and thus the three Islamists are players other than me, the only way for there to be only one Islamist on the germy bandwagon is if both KingPin and Lucresia/CES are Islamist. As I said in my list post before, KingPin's near the top of my town list and CES is lower on my suspicion list than most.
However, after re-skimming the way the day went, I will say that if there was one or more islamists on the wagon, the most obveous choice would be Zindaras and/or spontiac. I could see islamists adding pressure to the wagon after they saw it get going, so that would be where I would expect them to be on the bandwagon; not the hammer, and not people actually driving the attacks against germy (me and TSQ), but in between.
I think you're half right.
Zindaras wrote:I feel this is wrong. Day One lynches are almost always useful. I've caught scum multiple times simply by looking at the Day One lynch.
They certainly can be useful, but my point was that later game lynches can be even more useful.
There were two town votes on KingPin. There was at least one town vote on LyingBrian (two, if you assume sprontie is town). I know I'm town.

Which leaves the conclusion that all three Islamists were on the Shady wagon.
I don't see how this follows at all.
What better to do than to fuel a wagon Day One and later scoff at its usefulness, saying it was "just a Day One lynch"?
What better than to fuel a wagon Day Three,
when you're two mislynches away from winning
, and later scoff at its usefulness, saying it was "the obvious choice" or "scummy as hell"?
sprontalic wrote:Surely if he's the most suspicious, it's not unreasonable to put him at lynch -1 straight away.
I think it is the day before lynch or lose.
Zindaras wrote:I'm speculating about the playstyle of a Survivor, which is most definitely useful.
In the endgame? Not at all. As I've said before, as of Day 3 the Islamists were from a day game perspective a group that needed to lynch two people outside their group in a row in order to win the game. Yes, things get a little more complicated if we do pull off an Islamist lynch today, but the lack of kill's effect on the day game strategy isn't nearly as important as them acting as a group (Like mafia), knowing most everyone's alignment (Like mafia), and being one or two vote-hopping lynches away from an outright win (Like mafia).
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Post Post #478 (isolation #12) » Wed Jan 17, 2007 10:53 am

Post by Norinel »

The following was apparently intended to be a reply by Yosarian to a post by Norinel that occupied this space:

Zindaras wrote:
Are you serious? It's lynch Islamist or lose. If the Islamists can pile on to a game-winning bandwagon as one, any non-Islamist voting for any other non-Islamist costs the town the game. Also, if we assume they can do that, the fact that they haven't jumped on Zindaras yet would mean that at least one of CES or Zindaras is Islamist. It's curious that nobody else has mentioned that yet.
Bandwagon with FOS's, obv. No one should actually be voting at this point.

I agree that either Zinderas is islamist, CES is islamist, or the islamists don't think they can speedlynch right now for some reason. (Say, because one of them is lurking and not around).
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Post Post #483 (isolation #13) » Thu Jan 18, 2007 4:39 am

Post by Norinel »

mod:
It looks like someone edited my post 478 instead of quoting it, and I don't remember everything I said there. If we can't reconstruct it, could we at least figure out who editted and put it as there thoughts instead of mine?

Done. As soon as someone claims responsibility (and please do) I will attribute the content to that person.

Zindaras wrote:I have not heard his thoughts about the ongoing debate at all.
Which part of it? Or by heard do you mean listened to?
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Post Post #495 (isolation #14) » Fri Jan 19, 2007 5:08 am

Post by Norinel »

Zindaras wrote:
Norinel wrote:Which part of it? Or by heard do you mean listened to?
I don't know how you view it at all. I don't know how you feel about CES, about me, about how the debate's going, you know, everything.
My general feelings about you haven't changed a whole lot. Right now you're going through some of the same arguments with CES that you did with me earlier in this Day, and they still aren't convincing me the second time around.

As for CES, I can't entirely eliminate the possibility that when he replaced and had the advantage of a clean slate to pick any suspicion he wanted, he picked you because me voting for you (Or vice versa) is the most likely townie on townie vote. On the other hand, that would mean that you're town and he isn't, which is still a bit of a stretch for me.

As for the debate, we're doing a pretty good job. Once everyone's participating and it's not just a bunch of one-on-one fights, the debate will be going in the right direction. But also, I did a minireread of the last couple pages, and here are some things that came up:
spront wrote:1) His part in germy's lynch
(snip)

1) This is ridiculous because I've already had this discussion with Zindaras. We both had ongoing reasons for voting him. Yes the lynch went a little too quickly, but 99% of that was because germy self voted. Surely if he's the most suspicious, it's not unreasonable to put him at lynch -1 straight away. The fact of the matter is, from memory (since I can't be bothered checking), all that was on germy's wagon had a reason to be on it. You can go into the whole "germy is the easiest random lynch for scum" business but then you're just messing with your own mind. There is no factor on that wagon that can discriminate between scum and town. Obviously for scum, germy was town...so he's a perfect target for a lynch. For townies, germy looks scummy as hell, so he's a reasonable target for a lynch too. So both town and scum were just as likely to jump onto that wagon.
Hence I think this point is null.
Besides if you believed this, why don't you point out the 3 other people who were also on that wagon?
Emphasis mine.
spront wrote:If you think about it Norinel's idea about germy's lynch can just as easily be applied to SL's lynch.
This is absolutely wrong, since half of my point about germy's lynch is that Islamists could be much more forward about it in the late game, since they're two away from winning.
Y2, post 442 wrote:Actually, that was exactally the point I was trying to make, which was just that Norinel's argument that (to paraphrase) "most/all the islamists would have been on the germy wagon, so we should lynch someone who was on that wagon" was a questionable, and perhaps scummy, attempt to narrow the list of possible suspects.
I never said this. In fact, I already said I never said this, back in post 394:
Norinel wrote:1. I don't advocate lynching randomly from the [germy] bandwagoners. I don't even directly advocate lynching from the bandwagoners today. What I've been trying to say that you've been twisting around is that we shouldn't give everyone on the germy bandwagon a free pass for doing so.
Zindaras wrote:
In the endgame? Not at all. As I've said before, as of Day 3 the Islamists were from a day game perspective a group that needed to lynch two people outside their group in a row in order to win the game. Yes, things get a little more complicated if we do pull off an Islamist lynch today, but the lack of kill's effect on the day game strategy isn't nearly as important as them acting as a group (Like mafia), knowing most everyone's alignment (Like mafia), and being one or two vote-hopping lynches away from an outright win (Like mafia).
I've used my speculation all game as an incentive to crack down harder on lurkers. You don't see me attacking people merely because they post like I would expect Islamists to post.
Do you agree that Islamists in endgame will behave more like Mafia than like Survivors? You may explain your answer, but that's a yes or no question.
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Post Post #509 (isolation #15) » Sun Jan 21, 2007 2:21 pm

Post by Norinel »

And now my top three Islamist suspects each have one vote against them. Exciting.
sprontalic wrote:I don't see why it is. Surely no one is stupid enough to speed lynch them TSQ style since that's scummy as hell, free lynch at lylo (which is definately not a bad thing, at least for non-scums anyway). If we ignore the fact that germy hammered himself (which as it turns out, is the worst mistake he could've made since he's put the town in a very very bad position) I strongly believe that the day would've lasted much longer, hence more time to justify/void the germy wagon.
That's possible. Or, if everyone agrees that getting someone to lynch-1 and keeping them there is okay, than either a scum not on the wagon already can wait long enough to be "convinced" or one townie can blow it. Or someone can speedlynch anyway and play the WIFOM card. Or something weird and crazy can happen and everyone will act like we couldn't have expected it.
And can I just say that I'm sick of these "I think this" with nothing backing up the statement. CES did it when he said "I disagree with your point 2", now you kinda did it with the "I think it is the day before lylo". You're not going far in terms of convincing me of anything if you do that.
Pointing out that it was the day before lynch or lose was part of how I'd back it up, not going into more detail was to be concise.
Two away from lynch is not the same as one away from lynch. If Islamists piled on in 2 away from lynch then they've exposed themselves, allowing them to be lynched in subsequent days. How is that beneficial to them? Add the fact that germy was scummy as hell and you have yourself a WIFOM.
Maybe scum piling on will be lynched in subsequent days, maybe they'll say it was such an obvious choice and it won't. You're the one using WIFOM, because you're arguing that you as scum wouldn't take a particular course of action because it would make you look obviously suspicious, ignoring the fact that it gave you the ability to use that argument.
On the one hand you have Islamists/Commies that want an easy lynch, on the other you have townies that geniunely want to lynch a commie and they thought germy was the last one. So which one is it? How can you tell?
I'd think townies on the germy wagon would be more interested in looking for who encouraged their mistake than trying to write off their (And consequently everyone else on the wagon's) participitation by calling it the obvious choice.
I just read a bit further and noticed that you said that scums on the germy wagon would defend themselves by saying "germy was the obvious choice". Again this is a wifom. You have the scum who says "it's the obvious choice" as a defence, but then the town who says "it's the obvious choice" because they geniunely thought it was. If they are both pressured, surely they'd raise the same argument. Again how do you discriminate between the two just on that issue alone?
My idea is to use the germy wagon as one strike against people, and discriminate between between scum and town therein based on their conduct in the rest of the game. Is that really that original?

Also, that's not WIFOM by my definition either. How do you define it?
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Post Post #560 (isolation #16) » Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:03 pm

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Yeah, I guess No Lynch is the play now. I'd kind of like to see everyone weigh in the Y2 development first, though. Why be so fast about it when we've got a week?
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Post Post #586 (isolation #17) » Sat Jan 27, 2007 6:16 pm

Post by Norinel »

I'm here, but a combination of being busy and computer problems has knocked me out for a little.

Now that Y2's basically solid as Communist, TSQ is lower down on my scum list, since most of the vibes I saw from him leaned towards townie or Communist. Other than that, my list hasn't moved around too much, but I'll probably read over CES pretty critically before I'd vote Zind to see if I can rule out him picking me/Zind as the most likely non-Islamist on non-Islamist vote.
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Post Post #628 (isolation #18) » Tue Jan 30, 2007 6:38 am

Post by Norinel »

Well, my top three Islamist suspects were two Islamists and the last Communist, though the last scum was at the bottom of my list. But anyway, this has been probably my most enjoyable replacement experience once I survived the ridiculous read, for which I'm thankful to the mod and players.
Apeiron wrote:Thanks sprontalic for voting someone other than one of the Islamists, so we could gang up on it and take the win :p

I had assumed the Town would have figured the following out yesterday:

There was one vote on Yosarian2, and one on Zindaras.
4 votes needed for a lynch, 3 Islamists alive.
If anyone voted for anyone non-Islamist, the 3 Islamists could just bandwagon on it and take the win.

However, no-one followed up on the votes on Zindaras or Yosarian2. So I had assumed at least someone would think because of that, that they were Islamist. Of course this is all assuming that the Islamist would be in time for making the lynch.
As I think I said, having a vote lying around in lynch-or-lose means the scum can't coordinate or either one of the votee or the voter was scum. I had the tiniest bit of doubt about CES, but Y2 and spront were both so high on my list that it could've gone either way.

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