Mini 368: Town Of Suspicion - Game over!

[pablito]

Just want to note that I'm trying to avoid reading recent posts, but the opening post is kinda hard to ignore. So I will have done my read knowing the result/alignment of the lynch victim. But I'm trying to avoid new posts so that I can make a claimed quasi-unbiased post before I jump into new posts. Take it as you will whether or not I'm telling the truth that I didn't look at D2 posts. I've already read the game up to page 10 and have a running dialogue as I go. By the end of tonight, I should be all caught up.

[pablito]

Starting my read from the beginning

Oh yes, I remember originally reading the PJ vs LML argument. I thought it was quite a heated argument about nothing when it happened. Making too much out of nothing at all. I remember thinking that PJ had a good point but was too stubborn in his way early on. That originally made me wonder if he was scum. I wonder if I'll feel the same way when I get done with the read. I remember thinking LML kept his defense well but that he kinda ignored the townie PM, which was essential to PJ's argument.

I have to admit, that was one of my favorite game openers, it didn't lag and it gave a lot to talk about right away. Credit PJ for that. I also credit LML for being quite sensible in his argument and knowing how to prioritize his defense.

Also, way too much meta-gaming in the first few pages for my taste. Also, many kept hypothesizing scum-pairs. I like how the discussion went and it was kinda productive, but I'm just not a fan of scum-partner speculating so early. Seems like it was a worthwhile discussion that you guys had, but if I were there, I wouldn't have participated or encouraged that discussion at all.

Sigh, way too much dissection of posts too far. I tire and exhaust myself at the fourth page of this read.

Well Rosso's posts were questionable, but I can live with it.

But then Pooky comes around and explains those posts in 81:

RC generally is more active than he is in this game, there are several explanations for his that I will list below...

I respect that post and it did seem to sum up Rosso's gameplay alright. But then again, I'm not a big fan of meta-gaming and tying up a description of Rosso in a neat little bow was a bit too ambitious. Therefore, I'm picking up some scumminess from Pooky in that post. I did not see the advantage of defending Rosso at that juncture especially when Rosso himself had put himself in a defensive mood and was posting rationally. Pooky's post was a bit unnecessary (although it looks like a solid post). 81 seems to be one of those posts where in isolation it looks awesome, but in context I don't understand the pro-town nature of it. At least, it was a post that seemed to say not much while looking good at the same time.

pooks, i honestly am with my wife 24/7 and this is one of the few times i can post while shes at cvlass and im not.

tbh, i read back over lml's arguments and they seem weak, and pj's reflect bound is too opportunistic for my likings. That's why i think he's scum. coattails suck unless they belong to CEM.

And as for BRFTBTC in B, I dont care much. I've come to realize that pj will always think i'm an ass, mith will never respect me, and thok will always find every reason to insult me. I'm here to find scum. I found one. his name is pj.

I can live with this post. It feels genuine.

Cool, PJ stated what I just said before. Slight pro-town ping on PJ then.

Also, Pooks, you present reasons for why you think Rosso has played the way he has this game, but you do not seem to take a side on the issue you presented. Is there a direction you are leaning, or are you pretty much spot-on in the middle?

I stated my reasons for Rosso's behaviour to elicit a reaction from Rosso, based on the reaction I've received, I geniunely believe his inattentiveness during this game is based on him moving in with his newlywed wife.

I left it up for a few days because I wanted to see if anyone would hop on and attack Rosso harder after I laid out the roadplan and what not. The fact that no1 has is certainly interesting.

Hmmm, set up dichotomies that Rosso responds to in order to get a better read on Rosso? I do not feel that 81's intent was what Pooky said in 88.

Rosso's basically doing the whole null tell thing; if nobody else is suspicious, then he might be worth looking at as scum, but I think there a lot of other things to discuss first. I'd like to hear more opinions from him, but then I'd like to hear more opinions from lots of people.

MM, Lloyd self-votes himself a lot early game, enough so that people have suggested vote Lloyd as a title for him. It can be a helpful technique if done correctly (in one newbie game I was in with Lloyd, he was town, selfvoted early day 1 and one could deduce scum from their reactions to the selfvote; scum attacked him for his selfvote, while town just sort of sat there and said "Huh?"; of course we didn't actually lynch the scum until days 2 and 3). However, the technique is a bit played out at the moment IMO.

Reasonable post, but there is a severe absence of commenting on Pooky in this post. I think that Pooky well embedded himself into Rosso's argument that Thok should have commented on Pooky somewhat. Then Thok lengthens his other argument in this post. A quick aversion perhaps. Not liking Thok's pro-town rating right now.

While it can be said that mith at that time was redirecting the main argument onto M-M, mith had already commented on Rosso before when it felt right. I do not think that Thok's post was as good as it could've been. Either a miss or scummy inconsistency.

In the chronology, M4yhem replaces in and discussion ensues. We've seen that M4yhem/Seol turned up pro-town. I don't see mith's reaction as unjustified, but I did find a curious snippet of language in al_ko's post:

When I read M4yhem's post, I was suspicious about him voicing who the three scum were, and then voting Mith. I hadn't at the time noticed that he didn't mention anything on Mith when he did to everybody else. His random vote is, as Mith says, quickly removed to 'appease' Mith.

I didn't want to post until he responded to some of the above accusations

because even though it looked like it could've been just a joke, the way he formed it still looked scummy and I wanted to hear if he would say whether or not he was joking w/o me influencing him towards saying it.

Then looking over his short review of players, it's mostly all one-liners. It's good that he's voicing his opinion of who he finds scummy and not, but he doesn't have any good reason.

As for who he said was scum, he said me for that 'premptative defense against nothing.' Thok for pushing a point further then it should go when it was something M4yhem considered a 'non-issue.' and finally Ameliaslay for fence sitting.

Until he elaborates on the fence sitting, his case against Amelia is the weakest, and I think his case against Thok is the only one with any good reasoning (but that's all how you interpret my "defense.")

Perhaps al_ko was a bit cautious because he saw everyone else being too aggressive. But now knowing that M4yhem/Seol was town, I have to wonder why al_ko was apprehensive and waiting to post - if he's scum and knew that Seol was town being unruly attacked by pro-town people - I find it highly likely that he'd try to show that he was trying to be cautious in his attack. Strong suspicion on al_ko right now.

To continue the argument, M4yhem rightly suspects al_ko.

1.) I'm explaining my actions. They will be questioned, as they are being now by you. I had no idea how many votes I had until you told me just now. That's not what was important to me. Just like I said in my post, in that quote, if I don't agree with something, I'm not going to sit by and watch it happen, I'm going to do something about it.

In the game of mafia, if we see a player we believe to be town, if we sit idly by while he's being attacked, we'll slowly lose the game.

2.) I don't know that he's a townie, but I don't see how any of the arguments I've seen against him hold any relevance towards him being scum.

Rationalism is a great stance for scum to take. This reeks of it. Rationalism is also a great stance for rational and great players to take. However, the language in this post is very distant. That bolded part is language I would expect scum to use. Not a strong tell, but I just find al_ko to be awkward at this time in my read.

Skip forward to Pooky's questionnaire. I like PJ's sudden unvote in response. I think M4yhem appeared consistent with his gameplay at that time (no matter how confusing it was, it didn't appear that he was using different schemes in his mind).

Hmm, then al_ko's response is interesting:

Hmm.. interesting, part of my post defending PJ, which M4yhem finds most innocent, next to him, is what makes me the second most scummiest person on his list.

Well M4yhem was using a different portion of the post to suspect alko and a different portion to find PJ pro-town, plus M4yhem seemed to be finding PJ pro-town for other reasons aside from the quoted post. Therefore alko saying 161 was either true confusion about M4yhem's early vote mixed in with tunnel vision in why M4yhem suspected him of all people. Or it was an opportunistic scum post to deliberately degrade M4yhem's argument. I think it was more of the former, but having true confusion about why M4yhem suspects alko cannot be attributed to being either pro or anti-town. (sorry that was bad language and saying too many words to portray a convoluted point)

Sigh, jumping ahead to 181 wherein Rosso becomes another top suspect.

Also, Rosso's saying "I would hammer X" is just a scummy statement in general. Why only hammer? You should be willing to vote for somebody (no matter which vote happens to be) if you think they are scum.

That was only one of PJ's points, but it was the weakest, since Rosso is a huge fan of the hammah vote. But the way PJ approached it was good - in that it was a nudge on Rosso to vote rationally and actually help out since day is needing a lynch. This shows PJ's probably pro-town in my eyes at this point. Then again, I've never thought that PJ is ever scum in any game ever. Then again, I've never read a completed game where he turned out scum.

Interesting that sentiment quickly veered from M4yhem to Rosso/CES.

Okay, Relyte is in the game now, Yay. Now I have to try to read him too.

Alright, I'm working on second half now (post post #250), and I'll try to look at different and newer players as well.

[pablito]

Deee-amn, the Relyte vs. M4yhem fight looked honest and was a bit vicious. If M4yhem had done that to me, I would've relooked my stance on him.

I can understand now why M4yhem/Seol got lynched.

Oooh, then the crash happened.

Guess I've claimed then according to PJ. Good to know. Hmm, interestingly of the five on the Relyte wagon, none of the three were in my current possible list o scum, but considering how wagon movement has gone, I'm starting to suspect one person more now. and that person happened to be on the Relyte wagon.

the hell? why did mith vote Relyte after all of that?

And PJ claiming that he's never been lynched as town? hm. a bit annoying, but I currently think he's likely pro-town.

I'm going to ignore the PJ vs Thok Verbose II argument. I didn't read that game (know vaguely of the details though). But I did pay attention to Thok's posts since I maintain a little suspicion on him as of now.

Sorry if I haven't quoted and dissected posts like last one, I'm a bit tired of wading through all these posts especially the ones during the crash.

It saddens me to see M4yhem see alko as town now and to see Relyte vote PJ.

Okay, time for a quote then.

Yeah. I'm around. Last time I gave my thoughts though, I was nearly lynched. Anyway, PJ is scummy in my eyes now. He starts jumping at whoever is scummiest at the time. (Common, but well, he just seems to want to jump on who the new one is.) Then his post, about "worst" town, just made him look like, you're stupid if you lynch me. I don't like PJ at all.

I've seen PJ do that before in games. He does jump to whoever he thinks is scummiest, but that's often because he helps push that wagon further or initiates the wagon. I think Relyte failed to look at how causation and correlation went to his statement.

I don't care to read PJ's extensively verbose post 290 aside from what he said on Relyte. Well PJ has decent points against Relyte's argument.

I find Thok's insistence that LML/Relyte was town interesting. It's not what I would've expected from Thok. I'll have to rethink Thok then.

Ew, not a big fan of Relyte's 341 (wherein he quotes a lot of M4yhem and the FU quote)

I find M4yhem's 364 interesting. That's where he evaluated debates and called winners and such. No need to analyze it because M4yhem/Seol is dead.

Well I'm at the point where people are talking again about LML's breadcrumb. I didn't catch it on the first read and I think it's too esoteric for me to read. But I'm amazed at how much confidence Thok and CES put in this breadcrumb. Thok was very consistent with it, so that makes me feel good about him now - especially since he argued that point when Relyte had already replaced. If Thok had made the same argument but LML was still in the game, it could be said to be a good scum move to catch such a "breadcrumb" and use it to "buddy up" to a townie. CES however, suddenly saw the breadcrumb and unvoted. Nonetheless, there's nothing else I can see pro-town or anti-town on CES, so there's pretty much nothing that's worth voting or lynching CES for.

Ah good, M4yhem caught it too:

CES- That's conveniant. You just read that 'breadcrumb', when everyone else is losing interest in Relyte? I think you're making stuff up, now. Want to explain why you are prepared to vote me after following me onto Relyte?
Because right now I could go for a CES lynch, actually.

I find the Rosso/CES debate to be suspect, because a lot of that argument was based in what benefits the discussion of the town and it appeared that a lot of arguments were created to incriminate these two

in absence of any other good suspects

. On my read, it seems that the sentiment was something along the lines of "well, M4yhem is dying down and I don't feel like going any other road...well I have a bad or nonexistent read on CES/Rosso so I might as well try to push that route because it's better than a no-lynch". That might not be the explicit tone, but I feel that it may have been an implicit point in some voters minds in that argument. I think that argument can be valid in certain situations, but it's just interesting to point out that frustration and exhaustion from a lengthy D1 may have contributed to that argument. That is nothing to say about alignment because both town and scum may have come to such an argument due to exhaustion. And who knows, maybe that's one of the implicit points which got M4yhem lynched. I still have to read that part.

My avoidance of a full reread are successful. >_>

I've thought about trying to for now just focusing on what's going on from here on out, but when I did that before, it didn't work out too well, so I'm torn between doing that, and waiting another couple of weeks when my quarter ends. Which reminds me, I have to start an essay Razz.

But it looks like CES is the lynch today, as eveybody's voicing their intent to vote for him (though not actually voting yet).

huh? I understand how either a townsperson or a scum might say that to himself, but to say it aloud in thread? I get a null tell on that actually. but huh.

The rest of the day was the general scrambling pre-deadline. I didn't see anything of note except for al_ko's vote. I find the others to be un-noteworthy at the moment. However, I may choose to revisit those some other time.

I'm ready for D2!

[pablito]

On the topic of Thok, I can believe the claim. Combined with his actions in the latter half of D1, I believe he's pro-town.

[pablito]

I think I'm up for a

vote: al_kohaulec

for now.

[pablito]

I feel more confident that al_ko may be scum - at least from my initial read.

[pablito]

My thoughts on M4yhem aren't very good, so I could be up for a M4yhem wagon, but I still remain more confident that al_ko is scum.

However, I need to dedicate more reading time to this game and I will do so later when I get a chance.

[pablito]

unvote: al_kohaulec

for now, just to prevent any hastiness. But I know my vote belongs on al_ko.

[pablito]

vote: al_kohaulec

alko at least posted some defense now and I doubt scum would quickvote alko at this time.

[pablito]

al_ko posted, and I'm not fairly interested in hearing more from him, so I felt comfortable adding that vote back on. The original unvote was so that al_ko could bother to respond before anyone could hammer. But now that he's posted, I'm alright voting again. Also, I wouldn't mind ending the day at this time as unhelpful it could be.

[pablito]

Maybe you just don't know me well enough :p

[pablito]

al_ko, regarding LML - who was replaced by Relyte - who was replaced by pablito.

Relyte claimed vanilla, people say that LML breadcrumbed vanilla, and I have confirmed the vanilla role. So unless you doubt this claim, rehashing any argument on LML seems futile - and a bit unnecessary.

Then again though, I'm curious as to why you brought it up - considering what you should already have known before you started your re-read.

[pablito]

I haven't seen anything from al_ko nor others to make me remove my vote.

[pablito]

Wow thanks for giving something to defend against, because you know your whole argument against LML/Relyte/pablito only refers to LML. You didn't even bother to attack Relyte, who I've heard was even scummier during the lost-posts period. And you've also forgotten that LML breadcrumbed vanilla...then later Relyte actually claimed vanilla. I don't think Relyte could've picked up on such a breadcrumb from LML. Then again, I don't think you've gotten that far in your analysis, since you never mentioned Relyte. So let us know when you have time to finish up your re-read. But really, I'm too impatient, so I'd rather we just lynch you now.

[pablito]

Well I'm trying to pressure you into actually answering all those unanswered questions and showing you that there is a strong desire for you to participate. I will retract my previous statement about being impatient and I will actually show patience, as long as you try your hardest to answer everyone's questions. It just seems that a lot for today is contingent upon what

you

say alko. I would find it hard for me to want to wait to hear TSQ's arguments at the moment, because yeah.

I will admit that M4yhem's statements were harsh though. And I do have my eye on M4yhem/Pooky.

[pablito]

LL, How are you so sure that you're next on the line if you're wrong? And why has this repeatedly been a stated reason for you? I don't see why you should be so open in stating this before and now. I really don't get huge pro-town vibes from this post, but then again, I wasn't directly addressed in this post like you. And it appears that it did make a difference to you, LL.

That being said, I've continually become unsuspicious of al_ko because he seems so far behind in this game. The defense is behind where he ought to be, the awareness that he had previously claimed is behind where he ought to be, his posts just seem to be five days behind. And it's consistent so far. But is it just a show to defend himself?

And one thing that did come quickly, or at least was brought up to speed was the claim. And it was a vanilla claim, which doesn't bring me confidence. My vote stays, but I will admit I have begun doubts on al_ko being scum.

[pablito]

On my entry read-through, I did not find mith scummy, then again I did not find mith to be extremely pro-town either.

Based on other's arguments, I have started to find mith scummy, I'm still deciding whether I want to value the town's opinion or if I want to evaluate him myself. I have not seen anything from mith that has made me feel increase the pro-town rating.

[pablito]

Even though I begin to doubt that al_ko is scum, I feel that his reactions are extremely scummy. My confidence level that alko is scum is dropping, but everytime he responds to a question or allegation, it just goes back up. So alko, if you're pro-town, try. It's been your lack of passion that really makes me think that you're scum now.

[pablito]

TSQ, please try harder to start a counterbandwagon on me. I'm the perfect candidate, you just need a better argument. Yes, I am hedging my bets. But just add more evidence. It'll make you uber-pro-town if you start an attack on me.

[pablito]

If it helps get alko lynched quicker, I'd be very glad to have a countercase started on me.

[pablito]

I just found it very astounding that after all this time, TSQ would bother start a case against me at this very moment in time. Apparently, he's not been paying much attention as of late, so it's okay. But I mean, with the way he's been quoting PJ and referring to past actions, I'm worried that he completely ignored the LML-Relyte-pablito claim stuff. It's just not vibing together.

And then he chooses to value "hedging" as a valuable scum tell - at least enough to warrant a vote in light of a deadline with better suspects to evaluate. It's as if TSQ is purposely avoiding addressing alko, mith and thok right now at this moment - and that is annoying, but slightly pinging pro-town.

I'm playing around to see what the hell TSQ will do when I act even crazier. And so far the only one post with a reaction is feeling pro-town. But really, I don't get it.

However, Thok's reaction is curious. I'm more worried about Thok now based on that short reaction. The non-comment is opening up opportunity for the future without saying much. I don't like it. I know, it's based on a very short statement, but, hrm, it's not keeping me at ease.

[pablito]

And alko, I was on your scum list until we covered the whole Relyte claim argument again. So don't go off trying to persuade me to go back into acting all pro-town. I'd almost expect alko as town to start to suspect me again. I don't know if that's even a tell, but at least I have a reason to keep my vote on alko.

[pablito]

TSQ, are you saying I OMGUSed you? Cause I didn't.

[pablito]

I'm a bit bothered.

Shouldn't a pro-town person be continually analysing his own behavior along the way? Otherwise couldn't the pro-town person be making huge mistakes that annoy and distract the town if the person is not aware of how badly he's playing? So in a way, isn't, then, a pro-town player's job to analyse his behavior?

I can respect wanting to be asked specific questions, but I do believe that all players should be continually be analysing or at the least, recognizing his behavior during the game.

Nonetheless, that discussion is independent of anyone's alignment and we should get back to realizing that alko is our most likely and probably our best lynch for the day considering all circumstances.

[pablito]

Oh no, deadline's a-coming. I still like this vote. Who's got final words?

[pablito]

Someone please refuse this scum his wish, finish him off now. You, as pro-town, would never say that.

[pablito]

sarcasm's overrated, self-voting isn't.

[pablito]

al_ko, could you at least impart some final words for us? What is the message you want us to hear once your alignment is revealed? If you are pro-town, what do you want to us to look at. If you are anti-town, take the moment to bring up a preposterous theory. But not saying much in the final moments of your citizenship in the town of suspicion says plenty. You didn't even finish the analysis that you began.

[pablito]

I suppose it's safe to say that we are likely in lynch-and-lose. I suggest a mass-claim.

[pablito]

I would've expected M4yhem II to press further on Thok's claim. I've been thinking mostly since D2 that one of Thok-M4yhem II must be scum based on the claims and all. However, it's not a good idea to set up any dichotomies ever. But I'm still evaluating both of them anyway.

[pablito]

I can be good with #3.

[pablito]

Oh, and I just saw your last post as I just did that last post. I should start previewing all posts, not just the long ones.

Addendum: I want roles. I know it would be good to decide beforehand if we want people to give night choices, but I'm a bit undecided at the moment and kinda want to take it on a case-by-case basis. But if I have to give up my vow of ambivalence, then I'd have to go with reveal both role and night choices simultaneously.

[pablito]

Be gone, vanilla spirit! Be gone!

[pablito]

I'll start thinking of a list-order in case people want me to do make one.

[pablito]

I have a list for mass claim ready, I'd rather do it by my list than by a randomized method. Also, in no way was it intentioned that my list order supposed to be a list of suspicion. I put the order in a way that I thought would give scum a disadvantage and the town an advantage.

ChannelDelibird is first to claim in my list. I will reveal one at a time if it's alright with you guys.

[pablito]

Next to claim should be: mith

[pablito]

I'd like LuckayLuck to claim next in the sequence.

[pablito]

Now M4yhem!

[pablito]

As long as you don't cricket down the sporting, we can wait for you to catch up.

[pablito]

Mariyta should claim next. then last is Thok who just needs to claim fully.

Then our mass claim will be done and we can figure out who is best to lynch today during LYLO.

[pablito]

Well Thok's breadcrumb looks legit. using fortune in that sentence didn't look right, so I'll take it as an actual night choice.

And it looks like no one else has any night choices to reveal...

So the setup is either 1/2RB-cop combo or 1/2RB-1/2RB-cop trio. Which means that very likely that at least one scum claimed vanilla.

[pablito]

Which means that very likely that at least

one

two scum claimed vanilla.

[pablito]

Currently in my head I have the worst hypothesis. I have one of Thok-M4yhem being scum. I have either mith-CDB (due to latest exchange) being scum, then of course, by process of elimination LL-Mariyta.

I think that I'd rather not think about LL or Mariyta being scum for now and focusing on the other four because I feel there's a better chance of scum and better evidence on those guys.

I think right now I'd like to ask others what they think about Thok's claim now that the mass-claim is over. He made this claim very early on, and it just so happened that no one else has claimed a power role.

[pablito]

Thok, if there's a 2 person scum group, you're in it. If there's a 3 person scum group, I'm less inclined to believe you're in it.

2 mafia vs. 1 limited RB and 1 cop is a stretch and possible, but a cop in any 2 mafia setup probably upsets the balance unless there's a scum RBer.

Also, good point, time to re-read PJ/LML fight.

[pablito]

Evidence, I don't have it, but I'm sure it exists. Basically I was saying that because the four listed have been under the spotlight more than the other two, that there would be more to see and more to go off of.

I will give you a list with reasons, but I'd rather hear what more people have to say first. I will make it before other people respond, if you'd like, but I'd rather not post it until after the responses come. But you'd have to trust that I made said post prior to reading others responses.

[pablito]

I don't think I can bother to wait in this game. I don't see the benefit.

1. M4yhem

There's a strong disconnect with how he saw Pooky to how he came in as M4yhem II. Then there's his disbelief of Thok's claim but M4yhem rarely commented on the entire setup as a whole. In order for M4yhem to discount Thok, he would have to know that two roleblockers would be unfeasible regarding the setup. Also, M4yhem when talking about the mass-claim said that we shouldn't have to worry about the setup because scum already knew what they wanted to claim. This is why I had M4yhem claim late, even though I still suspect him the most. M4yhem already knew he was going to claim townie...and that's alarming considering his stance to the mass claim. Also when I did my initial read, I remember Pooky standing out for some reason.

2. mith

Everyone's arguments plus a vanilla claim makes me doubt mith. The way that alko attacked mith made me feel that mith could've been town, but now knowing alignment, I'm not very confident at all that mith is pro-town. I'm sure there's more, I just can't be arsed at the moment.

3. CDB

Just the whole way that the claim unravelled. There was a reason I had CDB go first. He either had to claim his real role or vanilla. I thought there were more power roles out there, so I thought that if he's town he would've claimed it. I would've suspected CDB as scum to claim vanilla if he's first.

4. LL

Process of elimination means LL falls here.

5. Thok

The claim is suspicious, because the combination doesn't make sense. Then again, I have to outguess the mod here and say that a second RBer would be necessary, and that if lordy would've needed to have it screened, it was because there was something interesting going on - at least something more than mystical RBer + cop. Thok's behavior, it goes both ways for me. But the claim has always sold me.

6. Mariyta/PJ

I had no reason to ever suspect PJ. And Mariyta at least posted, so that's a point in her column. Of course, it'll be nice if Mariyta chimes in, but I think that PJ's stances clearly defined that role.

I would be most interested in lynching mith today because I feel that it has the least risk attached.

[pablito]

Something about the doubt between the Thok-M4yhem relationship. There's too much risk for me to decide if they're both lying or both telling the truth or one is lying and one is telling the truth. So I want to take the easy way out and lynch #2 because it requires more gut feeling and less logical thinking. That's the honest answer.

[pablito]

I'm not voting any time soon.

But M4yhem's turnaround on Thok is questionable.

Also, why is CDB not up for a wagon?

[pablito]

LL, please provide your evidence for point #1. I think I know where you're pulling this info from, but I still don't buy your argument.

I'm tempted to vote M4yhem, but there still lingers the possibility that LL and Mariyta are scum together and if I put a M4yhem vote then someone will come in and quickvote the game into oblivion.

Those two votes were very quick and I don't understand how it all came about.

However, I will note that I've revised my list. Thok is now on the bottom. Bump everyone else up one notch.

[pablito]

I think it's a possibility.

[pablito]

Let's see what happens when it's lynch minus one.

vote: M4yhem

[pablito]

Sure, I think CDB is probably the right choice today.

My thoughts are two of mith, CDB and LL are scum.

I think LL might be scum for trying to reopen the pabs case. But in reality, mith tried to open that doubt yesterday, so LL is only continuing someone else's logical progression. However, LL usually proxies only to those who thinks is extremely extremely pro-town. And I don't think he really thinks mith passed that threshold yet.

I also do not think that mith should be cleared from any discussion yesterday post-claimage. I would not hold it past mith to start arguing and trying to bus his partners.

Actually, after just having said all that, I think it's LL + mith. I find it highly unlikely that LL would start the pabs doubt unless it was due to some night-talking. Based on metagaming, I'm fairly sure it's LL.

I'm not so sure abouth mith, think that CDB could be a safe choice, but the way that LL is pushing the CDB case makes me think that we should take our time before we go. We're always in lynch-and-lose, so we're pretty much screwed all the way.

[pablito]

Wait, yesterday was four to lynch. I'm not sure if two scum would've been on a scum lynch. I think CDB + mith is most likely, but doubt lingers on LL + mith.

Therefore, I think I want to lynch mith today.

[pablito]

Yes, I've been saying to tell you that Mith-M4yhem could've easily been staged. I wouldn't put it past both of those two to do so.

LL, you can't take too much value in what happened yesterday post-claimage because at that point the scum knew how to assess the situation and see what would buy them the best chance of winning.

Please take your wagon-vote-analysis in mind with the possibility of both mith and M4yhem being scum, then see if you still come with the same results as you had before.

[pablito]

Just a quickie, haven't entirely read mith's post since I'm still in class.

think that CDB could be a safe choice

You went a different direction in your next post, but even so, this post bothers me. Why would a pro-town player say they think it's LL + mith and then say that CD is a safe choice?

I intentionally used the word "could" for a reason. I'm acknowledging the possibility but choosing to emphasize cases on the other two.

And along the same lines, I think the wording here goes well beyond "take it with a grain of salt". pablito is here almost suggesting we

ignore

what happened yesterday. Which is stupid.

"Ignore" is a far extreme from what I suggest - which is devaluing the importance that was placed. It seems that LL almost entirely bases his entire argument on the events of yesterday when there is still so much to see. I want LL to look at the entire picture instead of focusing himself on the bandwagon analysis that he's pigeon-holed himself into. For anyone to suggest "ignoring" yesterday's post-claimage discussion would be poor play anti-town or pro-town. But if you want to consider "devaluing" as being "almost ignoring" then that's what you choose. I just hope my last explanation clears up what was my actual intent.

[pablito]

Boo, Mariyta. So so wrong. I feel confident doing this now,

vote: mith

[pablito]

Actually, no I don't.

unvote

Now that I have properly read mith's last post.

I previously questioned why mith would want to point out my sudden switch and I thought that the tone was accusatory and that he was trying to set doubt for an endgame situation. However, now that I've read the entire post and looked at all context, I do not believe that mith's tone was necessarily accusatory. I'm not saying it isn't, but not being positive that it is so makes me less confident he's scum.

Also Mariyta. There's this thing that went on before I even came into the game where LML breadcrumbed vanilla (I still don't even know what or where the breadcrumb is) and then Relyte was accused during the lost posts in crash period and he claimed when he got close to lynch and claimed vanilla. We are assuming that Relyte did not recognize the breadcrumb and that Relyte claiming vanilla is consistent with LML's breadcrumb. And the discussion of uncovering LML's breadcrumb happened post-Relyte claim.

So I don't know if you want to listen to that, but so far, it's always been said that my role has been vanilla before I even came into the game.

[pablito]

I'm set on a mith/CDB pair.

[pablito]

LL, you make me feel better about your towniness, but there lingers the mith+LL pairing.

I really don't like mith as pro-town because I don't get why he's suddenly re-opening the case on me. He's really trying hard to open doubt in an endgame situation because he already knows that his scum partner is going down or he's going down. I'm fairly confident now that he's scum (which is why I voted mith before I even fully read his post). I think that mith's action of trying to open doubt in such a late phase is much more scummy than LL's trying to narrow down the possibilities. It's not what you say but what you push. But this isn't just from today, I felt the same thing from mith yesterday. Despite a widely-agreed upon feeling that it was safe enough for me to create the claim order (an activity I would not thrust upon someone I even had an inkling of suspicion upon), mith was still trying to open up the faults in my logic in post 803. And I will admit, I'm not very consistent in it. I tend to look more into the emotion and genuine qualities of the posts, rather than the logic of argument. And yes, this is an excuse, and yes, it is something that can be attacked.

Nonetheless, mith could be pro-town, I'm just not sure he's attacking from a healthy pro-town vantage point. He seems more to be scum who's trying to muddy the waters. If mith is in endgame, it's going to be tough to read him because he does ask the right questions, but I'm not sure if it's just to cover something up or not because he is too aggressive to be pro-town, I think.

Hmm. Also M4yhem self-voted at a high-intensity point. Either he self-voted to get him out of having to answer, or he did it to ensure that the argument stuck in people's minds.

And CDB easily easily falling into the trap that mith is placing makes me feel that he could be a scum partner as well.

Oh, wait, CDB, why were you voting for mith yesterday but suddenly today you want to lynch LL? Please explain.

(oh wait, mith just posted, I will NOT read his post and answer though. I skimmed and I would like to be less angry when I reply)

[pablito]

I feel most confident in voting CDB at this time. Not much consistency between today and yesterday, and I feel that CDB has not been in this game long enough to really have any inconsistency. CDB has been so absent from the game that he should probably have only one good thought, and from yesterday I would've expected it to be "CDB suspects mith".

[pablito]

So, someone's trying to end this game right now?

That unvote would be great.

Mariyta being scum, never bought that one.

[pablito]

So, who wants to go first with how badly this game went. I mean, it's only a matter of time before the lynch goes through and the second scum hammers me. At least we'll be done with this game, of which I cannot complain.

Yes, I'm giving up as town, because this game deserves to die.

[pablito]

LL, why don't you do it if you so suddenly suspect me now?

Or are you giving up too, because that's great.

LL, I'd be up for lynching mith - because if yo'ure not scum, then I can't see how it can be CDB+Mariyta.

[pablito]

mariyta never even stated a case, though. let's lynch her.

suddenly an "inkling" goes into "nothing changes my mind". Either she already gave up or she's scum. Either situation is ripe for a lynching.

[pablito]

LL, I'm not scum, you're not scum. If I was this frustrated and wanted to, i could pull a M4yhem, which I will not, because I'm not scum.

I haven't still read mith's post because it still angers me to read. And apparently, Mariyta's voting me, which I think is pure laziness. And CDB lurks and bobs in every time probably just to opportunistically vote.

LL, your vote is useless, if you think that CDB is scum, he's just going to hammer me the next time he comes online. Game over, yipee, two out of three town did the right thing.

I know that CDB is the best bet today, but in a very likely Lynch and lose situation with two votes on a townie, it requires strategic voting.

[pablito]

what we need is an unvote by the real townie. And I feel, however unlikely that it may be, is that it actually might be mith.

mariyta's vote sounds like she knows it's game already and I fear it's the mari-CDB combo that no one bothered to take. Or else mari is the townie and she's not going to unvote anymore if she was confident enough to put that second vote on.

So either mith has to unvote so we can truly take on the real scum, or we have to hope that CDB is the townie and that he doesn't vote for me. Therefore, your vote on CDB while, very likely accurate, may not be the best option at this time.

[pablito]

mith should unvote. mariyta was watching the users below, she knew damn well what she was doing.

[pablito]

and no unvote?

[pablito]

vote: mariyta

[pablito]

unvote

You can unvote him, LL, and sweeten the deal for him.

[pablito]

no need.