Mini 1140 - Mafia Mishmash...Game Over!!

[Truant]

1) CST
2) I might've played with a couple people on a different account
3) Doesn't matter, I die as both anyways.
4) Not as often as a lot of people, working odd hours affects that, which means my CST isn't exactly "accurate".
5) Depends on the game; without a leader that I trust, I'll try to lead since if pressure isn't applied in a cohesive way it's easier for scum to slip through the cracks.

Vote: tclawren

Since if you're not going to vote, your vote should at least be on your sleeve and not in your pocket.

[Truant]

(I think I'm further elaborating on a point here, but whatever):

The reason everyone should be voting for tclawren right now is because of his refusal to participate in the RVS. If you do not agree with something, propose an alternative (like Regfan did) and follow through with that. I disagree that Reg's alternative is better than RVS, but that's neither here nor there.

Otherwise, vote for sub or possibly pappum's as a third option.

[Truant]

Truant

: Otherwise, vote for sub or possibly pappum's as a third option.

Explain this. I

hate

when people accuse people without explaining themselves. Even if it something stupid explain yourself.

My opinion about the Miller question is that is somewhat more helpful than the regfan questions for reasons similar to what Carciogen put down. It is obviously about the game going on right now. Regfan's were... obliquely related at best.

Vollkan

: @ EVERYBODY: DO NOT answer the above question!

Why did you not want people to answer this?

subgenius is off to me mostly because of this post where the conclusion doesn't seem to follow with what he's saying. "It's not scummy, but it can be scummy" looks to me that he's trying to "defend" tclaw; but wants to leave the possibility open to attack him later just in case.

pappum is a decent 3rd option because he really hasn't said anything. Putting time and effort into following a joke, while throwing down a vote with weak reasoning (and not applying it across the board when it should be very easy to spot with like 40 posts total in the game) is a weak indicator of not wanting to be too out there (hesitant scum)

[Truant]

Highlights of what I missed: Yura is (unfortunately) my strongest town read; pretty much for the exact opposite reasons as Vollkan had initially voted him for (the threat comment makes no sense coming from scum; especially somebody as seemingly ignorant as Yura where I can't believe he'd be bright enough to think about saying that as scum).

Magnetic should be insta-lynched.

Unvote
Vote: Magnetic

This time for pretty much exactly the reasons that Vol stated, you don't decide to gambit as town for no reason, then ungambit, then regambit. If you're actually a town doc, you don't claim at L-6; so that's out. Really the only options left are non-town.

[Truant]

Ckd wrote:

to add to the above post....if he had been hammered before your post, we also wouldnt not have seen tcl unvote. On the surface, it looks towny...very towny, but if magnetic DOES flip scum, it looks like a reason for a buddy to jump off a wagon. look at all the information we would be missing if we just quick lynched someone day 1.

I understand the reasoning here (even if it is a little bit stretched) so let me explain. I woke up this morning to see that Magnetic was now magically at L-1! I do not want day one to end this early. It is far too soon. Now if Magnetic doesn't show back up in the next few days (which I feel he might do) then let's lynch him. Remember that more info always benefits town, since the mafia already have much more info than we do.

/bitchslap

OKAY SO: If you simply state that you want more information, without doing anything to get said information; it doesn't do anything for the game except let it stagnate. I'm relatively sure that you've all read the "longer days are pro-town" or whatever, but doing this is scummy as hell and I need to sort through you all tomorrow after Mag gets lynched.

On a related note: CKD: just what do you want to accomplish with your pressure? It more just looks like a vote for votes sake rather than doing anything productive. Do you think that mag is scum or not? Would you be willing to lynch him? Also, wouldn't you need the flip of Magnetic to really see any connection between him and tclawren?

[Truant]

Vollkan: First off, does it look to you that Yuri is a competent/smart player? To me, that answer would be no. Therefore, if Yuri is scum, him asking if he's a threat doesn't fit with his other postings. It's an unusually clever statement, in my eyes. Scum don't generally view/vocalize themselves as a threat, where townspeople see themselves as threats to the scumgroup in one form or another. The threat comment just makes more sense from a stupid town than a stupid scum (since I believe it would require a more competent scum to say something like that.)

[Truant]

Couple thoughts: tclawren most likely was onto something since stabbing is typically an SK flavor (gogo mod-guessing); and SK's normally try to hit town and lynch scum while they're at it. Either way, (if there's an SK or a Vig) I doubt that there's only 2 mafia since mods generally don't like it if there's a chance that a scumgroup could theoretically be eliminated d1 (lynch and being NK'd would wipe out a scumgroup of 2). To support this, I don't really think that anyone ever expressed real suspicion of tcl yesterday (though while being trolled by (was town, now officially a troll banned loser) magnetic) that's less of a point.

Looking back at TCL's posts, he really was only suspicious of Yura before Magnetic's claim.

Speaking of Yura...
@vollkan: The reason I think/thought yura is/was town from that statement was because I don't see even a stupid scum thinking of them as a threat to anybody, while even stupid town have confidence that they're the best scumhunter in the world (and therefore making themselves a threat to any scum out there).

@Regfan: Why did you decide to ISO CKD above the others?

Vote: Yura-Chi

Gonna look over the game with the new information out there when I wake up.

[Truant]

(still haven't read through knowing that mag, pap and tcl were town for d1, stupid life)

Answering Vollkan
I'm voting for Yura right now as my vote is useless if it's not used, and it's based on what I believe to be the best hard evidence so far in the game. Also, as an overall meta standpoint that I firmly believe in: if we punish scum for making "optimal" decisions (killing those who are a threat to them) by analyzing every NK for motivation, then we can force them into making suboptimal decisions because they don't want to get outed. Therefore, by forcing them into making suboptimal decisions we can gain a slight advantage resulting more often in a town win.

[Truant]

*sigh*

@Max:

this post feels off cos it seems to be town credit seeking.(although i myself was about to defend magnetic due o the way he trolled in my game, but tclawren doesnt know that?)

I read all his games the other day right before he claimed doc. I was trying to figure out how new he was, so yeah I know he's an idiot.

I honestly believe that more discussion could have helped and without it I wouldn't be nearly as wary of bgg as I am, but the topic of discussion had flagged thanks to regfan taking the bait from bgg. That combined with the post that ultimately comprised a taunt by Magnetic I think that it was perhaps good for the SC to hammer.

What about this post really makes you think that he suspected bgg as much as he suspected pappum's?

@subgenius: Yes, cause scum plan for nk analysis to intentionally gimp themselves first night when they don't know whether or not the NK will be analyzed. Yes, they *might* have done anything, but the most logical and best choice for them typically is removing threats to them. I analyzed the SK first to see if there was a good start on eliminating an anti-town NK right off the bat. We can't be assured that they'll go for scum (or that they'll even hit scum) so therefore I'd rather get rid of them if I can since I don't believe that it's a vig. (Possible 2nd mafia, but again, it'd be a 2/2/9 start, which personally I think is town favored; but that's neither here nor there)

After skimming the whole game again, both pappum's and tclawren suspected Yura primarily (in my eyes). At least one of these has to be a setup (possibly both) so

Unvote

until I can really get time to read the thread again.

Probably be tomorrow morning... maybe.

[Truant]

Holy shit guys. Yay for stuff to try to catch up on.

@Vollkan:

I'm voting for Yura right now as

my vote is useless if it's not used

, and it's

based on what I believe to be the best hard evidence so far in the game

. Also, as an overall meta standpoint that I firmly believe in: if we punish scum for making "optimal" decisions (killing those who are a threat to them) by analyzing every NK for motivation, then we can force them into making suboptimal decisions because they don't want to get outed. Therefore, by forcing them into making suboptimal decisions we can gain a slight advantage resulting more often in a town win.

1) Your vote being useless if not used is not a reason for voting

Yura

rather than anybody else
2) What hard evidence? You've dismissed the arguments I've been making against Yura
3) I don't even understand the 'optimal ' decisions part of this...

Truant+5

contingent on response

1) Votes are useless if they're not being used. Period. They don't express where your suspicions lie, they don't put pressure and they don't lynch who the hell you want to lynch.
2) Hard evidence = night kills. Who whomever has killing roles is hard evidence that can't be falsified. Almost everything else in the game is subject to opinion and how you read what they wrote where you know the mafia/sk killed for a reason. I also believe that it's easier to pin down one person's motivations than a group so I decided to analyze the SK's decision over the mafia's decision first when I had little time to analyze everything the way I would like to.
3) Everyone in mafia plays to win. Non-town try to ensure their survival while town are fine dying if they can catch scum. Therefore, scum generally get rid of threats to them if and when they think that they can get away with it. SKs fall into this even moreso than mafias cause they don't have anyone but themselves to rely on so they're more likely to kill off direct threats. Therefore, when I saw that TCL was stabbed, I analyzed who he was suspicious of to see if I could get a bead on the SK.

More later, gotta go to church.

[Truant]

(TCL, Pappum's town)

In the beginning....

-Page 1-
Nothing really

-Page 2-
(post 32) Not liking SC's reaction to Regfan's questionnaire. I saw it as a way to find something to talk about rather than trying to "lead the town" since there's no real leading going on through the questions that he posted. Also, I think that aside from Vollkan, SC's half-"claim" (I hesitate to call it such) of offering to claim miller went too much under the radar. There are very few townies (and none that I've seen with as little experience as SC claimed to have) that have the idea to say that they're something that they aren't. Fake-claiming is almost at the heart of playing scum, while townies just know that they're townies; and they don't need to worry about being anything else.

(post 38) SC completely undermines his previous reasoning to vote for Regfan. In 32 it was because he was leading the town and the Q's weren't useful (which was scummy in SCs eyes as per post 32), but now it's just "bad play" and he doesn't know whether or not that Reg is scum and wants to find out more information.

(post 46-47) Admits that some of Reg's Qs are reasonable, but continues the guise of it's scummy due to him (Reg) not explaining why the Qs are useful (wut?), and not because it's scummy (complete reversal from 32)

-Page 3-4-
Nothing

Page 6-9:
Eff magnetic, note to self to analyze this later, I don't want to get frustrated reading that again.

@Regfan (post 215): Why did you automatically assume that there was a Vig in the setup?

(To be continued)

[Truant]

Get a post up in about 12 hours, sorry for my absence.

[Truant]

Reading from my last post (so page 15)

@Suprise_Carcinogen: I never called it a town history, I called it a catchup/review post. What you posted early on is now catching my attention upon a reread. Not everything that scum does is scummy, and not everything that town does is townie. Analyzing every post is a waste of everybody's time, including my own.

SC's naming of scum pairings is just stupid at this point, when we don't have a scum flip. It's a nulltell, but fuck it's stupid.

@Vollkan: NK's ARE hard evidence. They are the people who died. Nobody else did. There's always a reason for it and *rarely* it's for WIFOM purposes. Even if the scumteam manages to evade all suspicion, they still have the motivation to want to get rid of people that are likely to get on their trail, unable to be swayed, etc, etc, etc. Being a threat to the scumteam by attacking one of them typically gets your name on their short list pretty quickly so it's likely that scum NK'd to save their own skin. When there's more motivation to do something over another, it can be analyzed and shouldn't be relegated to just WIFOM and ignored.

@subgenius: analyzing the SK kill first is for the two reasons that I stated; it's generally easier to analyze one person rather than a group, and it's faster when you don't have the time. I had to pick one and the easier one is going to be the one I choose first.

(quote from vollkan)

Have I tunneled already? I didn't think I even made an accusation yet.

(blah blah blah)

O.o Yay for basically admitting that you're scum.

Vote: bgg1996

@SC (post 430): Why are you trying to prove that bgg is newb-town? How does him breaking his own records affect your read on him?

Yay for SC's fencesitting on bgg (post 466).

Reached page 20; hopefully finish this tomorrow.

[Truant]

@bgg: You admitted to not accusing anybody of anything. Town accuses people of being scum, of something being scummy. You saying that you haven't accused anybody means that you're scum that doesn't want to step on toes. If you were town you would be doing something, anything; but not accusing anybody of anything is not pro-town, especially on page 17.

@SC:
1) I'll do my catchup posts as I see fit, bringing to light stuff that catches my eye.
2)

Two things. First, you have now gone back to 100% bandwagon participation, and second, just because you say "hey, don't mean to do x..." doesn't mean you aren't doing X

That said, he is reading extraordinarily scummy. I just wanted to make clear that I was aware.

Votecount?

I took this last line (in bold) to represent bgg's play over the course of pages 17-19 in his conversations with subgenius. Who else were you referring to in this statement if not bgg?

@vollkan: Fine, agree to disagree. As scum I'm more likely to kill somebody that's a threat to either me, my scumgroup or somebody I feel can't be swayed easily than for wifom purposes (especially on N1 when you can't be sure that people will even analyze the NK's at all). With the added motivation for killing a threat (I feel), there is a place to analyze who was killed at night.

Continuing on from page 20:

(Mostly at Max, but to anybody that thinks that I'm scum over this point) Again, I don't trust an SK to do anything pro-town; they're generally easier to find through NK's since it's only one person's motivation rather than a normal collective of people's motivations, and it's faster to compile evidence for it. I was going to post about the other NK when I had a chance (which clearly I did not at the time, and for some time later). Please, elaborate on what about my position throughout the game I've taken makes me scummy or doesn't even make sense. Open question to anybody.

I honestly don't understand how andrew can feel that ckd repeating himself is a scumtell. I use two tabs to catchup in any game I'm in, which is essentially the same thing. It's nothing but a nulltell.

@Regfan: What about his (andrew's) meta makes him scum in this game. I want specific examples and examples from town games where certain behaviors are completely absent.

Sniped by sub.

Alright, except for some stuff in the middle of the game that should be it.