Mini 245 - Stick Figures Mafia - Game Over!

[mathcam]

I'm not obese, I'm big-boned.

Vote: Bruno

for having an obscenely large avatar. This vote will go away as soon as it does.

Cam

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In case it's unclear,

Unvote: Bruno.

Cam

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Actually, I think I might agree as well, at least with the bandwagon. Narninian hasn't seemed particularly super-pro-town over the last few posts.

Sorry, Narn, looks like your the first victim of the bandwagon o' doom today.

Vote: Narninian

makes 5, I think.

Cam

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There's nothing wrong with stating the obvious, as long as it's not

all

you say. It's not always clear how much experience the players in the game have, so why risk the possibility that a couple of newbies come finish Narninian off, thinking that it was what the town wanted? By saying it aloud, you make a statement about what you think the consensus of the town is at that point, and give anyone who disagrees a chance tos tart a discussion on it.

On the other hand, discussing ponies, tea, and crumpets, is a fairly large waste of time and space. I shudder to think that when I have to do a re-read later on, I'm going to have to read those posts

again.

I guess we're waiting on Narnininan.

Cam

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"bar" as in "except"

Though I understand Narn's plight, his last post contained nothing. I'm content with my vote.

Cam

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mlaker is always like this. It is inexcusable. I don't know why he bothers to sign up for games if he's just going to ignore them.

My feeling on Narninian is just a hunch, and nothing more than that. Unless something spectacular happens, I will probably end the day with my vote on him.

Cam

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I disagree. Discounting cop results and other night information, which certainly play a role, there are also some common scum tells to keep in mind. Neither of these would be considered hunches. There's also a distincion between "just a hunch" and an admittedly weak vote with a modicum of reasoning behind it (e.g. "He was the third on a bandwagon" or some other such nonsense). My vote on Narninian is almost solely hunch-based...since the bandwagon formed up on him, I just haven't gotten any kind of a pro-town feeling from him. Impossible to defend against? Yes. Completely and utterly meritless? In my opinion, no.

Cam

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Thinking someone is giving away scum vibes based off of "common scum tells" is still a hunch...

I use "hunch" and "gut feeling" interchangeably. If you have specific reasons to vote for someone (say, based on a scum tell), that's not a hunch, at least by my definition.

Cam

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...but deserved.

Waiting to hear from blackberry. I'm starting to lose confidence in the Narninian 'wagon.

Cam

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What makes that interesting in the slightest?

[broken record]Still like the Narninian 'wagon best.[/broken record]

Cam

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Tyfo's 2 from a lynch, probably should claim.....

Hope we didn't run up the doc...

This sounded awfully insincere to me. Maybe BJ's not so bad of a target today after all. Hmm.

Cam

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what makes you think it was insincere....

Well, is it not rather obvious that anyone pro-town would not want the doc lynched? Only someone going out of their way to try to

appear

pro-town would bother to explicitly mention it. That's what makes your mention of it sound insincere. Incidentally, the question "What makes you think it was insincere" was a far more valid response to my accusation than a ":roll:."

Cam

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It's significantly easier to read the thread if you

don't

quote the posts immediately proceeding yours. One nice thing about the posts being listed in order is that you've just read the posts before the current post, so it's unnecessary to repeat them.

Cam

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No prob, Bob.

I still prefer my Narninian vote, but at this point I'd be willing to switch to BJ. My point about his doc comment still stands out to me.

Cam

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Whether or not it started out random is pretty irrelevant...currently, the decision on whether or not to vote Narninian is far from random. My own gut feelings aside, there's the fact that he claimed townie: There are several reasons this is important. First, if he's telling the truth, we've lost less than we would have if we lynched a claimed anything-else. Second, since townies are guaranteed (essentially) to be in the game by the opening post, it's also a very safe claim for scum to make, which can be especially importnat on day 1, as the mafia don't yet know what sorts of pro-town roles are in the game (and hence don't know how to format their fake claims).

It's not like I think we've got a sure thing, here, as is evidenced by my willingness to switch to BJ instead. But I

do

think there are a couple of reasons to go after Narninian, and very few reasons to go after anyone else.

Cam

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Well, we've certainly got a lot of information from yesterday to go on now, based on who seemed the most reluctant skittish about joining the Narn bandwagon.

Time for a reread with this new information.

Cam

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Changling Bob stands out to me head and shoulders above everyone else in scumminess. The Tyfo issue is an interesting one, but one that I thinks merits waiting another day for. We'll leave the mafia the tough choice of deciding whether or not to kill him (if he is the doc, that is...).

Vote: Changling Bob

makes 4 out of 6. I think we should hear a claim.

Cam

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Well, if anyone was wondering how BJ's post count got so high, I think we have an explanation. It certainly wasn't through well-thought-out game analysis.

Though I think that BJ's probably innocent, I wonder if there's a point at which it makes sense to lynch a probable innocent just because the game will flow better with them gone, thus making it easier to catch scum. Hmm.

Cam

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Your powers of persuasiveness are amazing.

In any case,

Unvote: Changling Bob

. Off to find a better target.

Cam

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I agree. The topic of lynching mathcam deserves a lot more focus. BabyJesus, why don't you take up the charge here and explain why anyone should join you on the mathcam bandwagon. And, if you don't have anything to contribute on this front, then focusing on the mathcam bandwagon

still

has had a positive effect: We'll now have more reasons to lynch BabyJesus.

Cam

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...why don't you take up the charge here and explain why anyone should join you on the mathcam bandwagon.

Because at night, when the rest of us sleep, I think you kill people.

No, this is why

you

are on my bandwagon. I asked for reasons why

other

people should join your bandwagon.

In any case, your last post was sufficient. I don't see why you have to be prodded 3 times just to make a post that actually contains content, especially since

you

are the one who complains about the pace of the games on this site being so slow.

CB is still my top suspicion, but AI might have to reread day 1 with his claim in mind, to see if it melds well.

Mod

: Can we get a vote count?

Cam

[mathcam]

Mod: Can we get a vote count?

No.

Damn. I really wanted to know how many votes everyone had. Oh well. Guess I'm playing today in the dark.

Still. no reason to lynch either of them today in my opinion....

I think I probably agree, and Blackberry might be a good alternative choice.

Cam

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I do however agree that neither myself nor Tyfo should be lynch, despite the fact that one of us is scum.

Whoa, really? Why do you say that?

Cam

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No, I meant: Why are you so certain that one of you is scum?

Cam

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Not uncommon enough for me to declare outright that one of them has to be scum.

In any case, if you really think that one of them is scum, I'm positive the right move is to lynch one of them. Best-case scenario is that we lynch scum right away,

and

there's a better than 50/50 shot at hitting this best-case scenario. Note that this "going one-for-one" is the best we can ever hope to do. The worst-case scenario is that we tie up two lynches with a guarantee of nailing scum at the end...this is

excellent

compared to any other plan we attempt to enact. Is there anyone out there who wants to guarantee me that if we lynch blackberry today and he turns out to be pro-town, that our next lynch tomorrow will

definitely

be scum?

Finally, keeping the real doc alive is not of paramount importance. The docs ability is only occasionally useful, whereas getting rid of scum

is

paramount. Lynching one of the claimed docs has to be right play, today. I think CB has acted significantly scummier than Tyfo, but CB has the advantage of having claimed second...a fairly ballsy move for scum to make.

Cam

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2) The doc ability is pretty damn useful while the cop is still alive, no?

This is certainly the case if the cop has been outed early in the game, at which point it's pretty crucial to keep him/her alive until some information can be reported. On the other hand, the probability of a hidden cop being both the target of a mafia and the target of a doc on any given night is pretty remote. A much greater benefit to the town comes from lynching a mafia, even if it takes two tries and risks eliminating our doc (keeping in mind he'll be eliminated by the mafia anyway). Further, bandwagonning anyone other than one of these two is just going to force more role claims (including possibly the cop) out into the open.

Vote: Tyfo.

I think the blackberry bandwagon is a waste of time.

Cam

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I'm fine lynching BJ. While it's clear he could be a pretty positive contributor to this game if he wanted to, he's intentionally making distracting and non-sequitir posts to get us off-topic. That's pretty damn scummy to me.

Cam

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There's no way that scum's going to kill one of the two of them tonight, and then we're left in the same boat tomorrow. If "Why today?" is such an important question, then consider also "Why tomorrow?" or "Why the day after that?" Our numbers

decrease

as the game goes on, meaning we won't always have the luxury of being able to be okay with sacrificing a townie to get a doc. On top of this, there are several small factors which contribute to making the "Keep the doc alive to save the cop" plan...first, this totally neglects the existence of a back-up doc. Second, as the game goes on, the usefulness of a cop's early investigations decrease, as som eof the townies will be dead by the time he reveals. This is further exaggerated by the fact that early investigations will most likely be town...if a cop hasn't revealed by day 2, he probably hasn't pegged two scum (or is unsure of his sanity, which is another issue).

I'm not saying that lynching a claimed doc is guaranteeing us a scum (in fact, I think I'm the only one who seems to have expressed the possibility, however small, that they might both be telling the truth). But I just don't see how lynching Blackberry could be a better play than lynching someone with a 50/50 shot of being mafia. In fact, I think Tyfo's significantly more likely to be scum since CB claimed afterwards. So can someone explain to me how we're all so sure that blackberry is scum (say, better than a 50/50 shot)?

Cam

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Skimmer?

No, I don't think they'd keep the doc alive. The question is whether or not it's worth letting a mafia stay alive, and risk running out of time to lynch them all, to let the cop stay alive an extra day. This may seem obvious at first, but I assure you it's not. The cop may die independently before then, in which case we've just left the mafia alive for absolutely no gain. The cop's sanity may not be known, meaning we have even more wrong lynches before we get to an actual scum. There may be a back-up doc that can save the day instead. There may be a godfather, limiting the usefulness of the cop even further. I could go on.

If we believe that they can't both be docs, we have a guaranteed shot at hitting scum within the next two days. We'll still have the cop info when he comes out. This is better than anything that anyone else has offered.

Cam

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Okay, fair point. That doesn't say anything about the other collection of caveats I posted, though. Or do you have replies to any of those?

Cam

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Fine, fine.

Unvote: Likely Scum, Vote: Possibly scum.

Sorry, forgot to put names in:

Unvote: Tyfo, Vote: Blackberry.

Cam

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It seems cruel to make a replacement come in and read all this, make a claim which we're almost destined not to believe, and then be lynched after one post. I'd be fine lynching Blackberry now.

Cam

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If he turns out to actually be a back-up doc, I owe everyone a big "I told you so" later. (Not that I predicted he was a back-up doc, but that I mentionend that the possible eixstence of one would be a good reason to lynch one of the existing docs.)

I agree that doc+backup is more likely than two docs. Maybe now we can lynch Tyfo?

Cam

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BJ, why on earth would you want to force another claim? They'll probably just take advantage of BJ's now-infamous willingness to temporarily believe every doc claim and just claim doc.

I'm willing to follow Karo's lead at this point.
Vote stays on Blackberry.

Cam

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I think he meant give himself up in exchange, but I'm not positive.

Cam

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I think Shelper meant to address Karo, and I agree that that would be a good "middle ground" in terms of how much information is released.

Cam

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12 hours without a post hardly seems bump-worthy.

In any case,

Vote: Tyfo.

I think he's our fake doc.

Unless anyone's got another mystery note to report...

Cam

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What are your arguments?

I don't think you and Changling Bob are both doctors. Changling Bob claimed second, which he'd be less likely to do if he were making it up. You did not vote for Blackberry. You put up only a token fight against Narninian early on, after which you were content to jump on a couple of different other bandwagons.

What are your defenses?

Cam

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Hmm, CB does manage to make himself look scummier and scummier with every post. I still feel he's a more likely doc than Tyfo, and since we know we had a back-up doc, it's pretty likely that

one

of them's got to be telling the truth.

Cam

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i like my lying brian vote...

Ditto for me and Tyfo. I think he said he protected me to try to get me to unvote.

Cam

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Well, I still think Tyfo's the scum out of the two, but if we're not going to lynch him...

I'm not the cop, and I agree they should reveal.

Cam

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A WIFOM argument for sure, but I'd find it more likely that CB made a night choice that doesn't make sense than CB

making up

a fake night choice that doesn't make sense.

Cam

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Perhaps a

vote count

would be in order?

Cam

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If so, can I gloat about how long I've been wanting to lynch Tyfo? On the other hand, I totally missed the Blackberry thing...

Cam

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You investigated me after I was one of like two people to constantly harass Narninian on day 1?

Cam