Mini 1075 - Fishtown Mafia

[LlamaFluff]

Hi im replacing with the condition that I will probably not be fully caught up until Wednesday. Might get about half the game read today though. We will see.

[LlamaFluff]

We are massclaiming today due to SB flipping JK and having three nights worth of actions occured with no flipped investigative roles. We can work with that given all these nice partial breadcrumbs he has left us. JK either makes a move shooting for a block of scum submitting the kill (poor move until one scum is left) or saving a player (what *should* be done).

I have a few ideas from what I think night actions are if there are no other protective/blocking roles.

Did a very fast skim and I cruelty/antihero reads really scummy to me early on. I really wont be able to get more done until late tomorrow or wednesday though, classes started again for me today and they are spread out enough to effect posting.

[LlamaFluff]

With 8 alive, would a no lynch be a good idea?

Thats a good point, I was thinking 9 alive like most games. Given that its probably mylo it seems like a good idea. Also if we are going to no lynch we dont massclaim today since I trust people to have breadcrumbed fairly well at this point in the game.

[LlamaFluff]

p.p.s. no lynch with 3 rounds of no lynches already just doesn't feel right to me. I think we should do the massclaim, force the issue and see how this plays out, especially since I think town will choose right.

We might be in lylo, I would prefer to give any other role one more shot (especially since another probably exists) and not risk the insta-loss. This game has apparently had a hard time actually lynching, but I dont think mylo is the right spot to rectify this.

unvote
Vote No Lynch

[LlamaFluff]

If we arent going to lynch we are going to massclaim. Already we have three fully against the no lynch so it probably wont work too well, also rhinox again points out that this was an 11 player game which im sure that I will continue to overlook another half dozen times. Since Corv already claimed he should start and we move forward from there. At the end I will put up what I think is going on with regards to the JK slot.

[LlamaFluff]

Ok then, Emp next, popcorn

unvote

[LlamaFluff]

also VT

Haylen/cruelty

[LlamaFluff]

Given the claims, here is what I have on what I think happened during N1.

My thoughts based on the EOD yesterday are that

fallenangel, nocmen, and havingfitz are scum suspects

. The latter 2 were both around during deadline posting yet didn't hammer. The fact that nobody hammered fallen angel at all is telling to me. Again I just skimmed but unless the empking case gathered more steam than just "HE WANTED A MASSCLAIM AUTOSCUM" then I say fitz looks the worst out of this.

Empking's case is a classic opportunity for scum to jump on and mislynch.

Nocmen's change of vote to a wagon that obviously wasn't going to gather steam 20 hours before deadline is also telling.

Says FA, Noc, fitz are scummy - Possible blocked players, more importantly, not protected.
Emp shows up as a possible protected player here given that he is a town read.

Singer's vote on Emp is pretty bad, and it's even worse that he unvotes and panders to Antihero's analysis. Looks like he wants to avoid any conflict and just backs down from the vote to avoid that.

Another player that was obviously not gone for as a 'protected' player. Brings down the called out protected pool to essentially just Emp.

SB votes Corvuss though, meaning that if someone was gone for as a block, it was him. This eliminates Noc or singer as the targeted player. We have to remember that it would have been AD and not SB submitting the protection however, which actually makes Emp look like he would have been a block instead of a save in the mind of AD.

So I think that leaves it at either a block of Corvuss, or what may have happened, a protection of Rhinox (I say Rhinox because he seemed to be a town read of AD). I just am not sure of what really. I would like to think that AD made the smart move and saved instead of blocked, but he could easily have been self-absorbed enough to try and block Corv, but I really think he would have blocked Emp given his reads.

So I think Rhinox was the save over night one, outside but small chance Emp was saved/killed, but the reaction from SB points away from this. I dont think that Corv was blocked since it doesnt match up with what AD was thinking, even though we see the latching on reaction from SB the next day. Was really hoping we had some sort of other role to give us another cleared-ish, but when added to my current reads, I think it means SB protected Rhinox the first night.

Either way I see zero chance that the target was not Rhinox, Emp or Corv, and the chance of Corv is near neglegable. Would say something like 70-29-1 for odds.

Will probably vote for the cruelty/antihero/haylen spot. Need to do a little more reading though first. Have the game skimmed but still want to get a closer read done. Tonight should be a great chance to do that.

[LlamaFluff]

@Corv - If you look at AD, he probably blocked Emp if he was going for a scum target, or protected Rhinox if he was going for a town target. To explain the theory you want to target town until one alive since to hit scum you have to hit the RIGHT scum, not just ID scum. To get a save you just need to protect the most pro-town player. He never got a chance to crumb the next day. SB opened with a vote of you, and called Emp kinda-town, altnough not all that much, making me think that it wasnt his target. I think if he targeted Emp, he would have had a much greater opinion of him. While he didnt submit the night one action, he still knew what it was, and his result. I could see an Emp target, but I dont think he was.

[LlamaFluff]

First off, I think that Empking is town for meta reasoning. I just sent something to the mod asking if I can use the meta that supports it since its not the normal type. While I think massclaim would not have worked in this game due to a competent mod, I do think that an early one may have merit with someone who is a poor mod. Either way, meta does support him being town, this meta may not have surfaced until around day two/three in the game, but it exists.

Anyways... on to my main point

Vote Haylen

Early on we have cruelty latch onto Empking for creating WIFOM, which he decides that Emp must be scum for, due to WIFOM reasons

for me, it boils down to the fact that empking is experienced and has history which suggests competence. the issue, therefore, is whether or not an experienced, competent player would suggest an illogical course of action.

Game progresses, he does not, eventually we end up with the admittance that his vote is weak

regardless, this situation IS wifom and i can't really endorse empking's lynch based solely on his massclaim idea. i'm not going to unvote because i think that right now the only other viable lynch candidate is DP and i'm not willing to lynch for stupidity

So about halfway through the game the best things that he can give us are WIFOM siding that someone is scum for suggesting a massclaim (again meta from Emp says towntell), and someone maybe being stupid or just scum. Then again that is just him saying that DP is scum because he is not justifying his town reads.

More importantly he continues to base all of his contributions to the game on WIFOM. If you look through his posts, its a reoccuring theme to get people more interested in this debate then it is to do some actual scumhunting. The extent of hunting that occured for non-cruelty people is that he is attack

Eventually he drops the "case" on Empking and throws up some buddying reads to Ingoc and Rhinox, although makes sure to say that he does not view them as town persay. There also is suspicion of AD, singer and nocmen that appears to have come out of left field, since this is his first time even mentioning them over the entire game. This eventually turns into a very weak vote on singer who seemed to be taking a shot at DP more then actually doing anything scummy.

That was it for cruelty. He aruged WIFOM for most of the game while getting an annoyed-scummish read over DP, suddenly called people taking heat scum near the end of the day and just threw his vote on one as deadline showed up with poor justification.

[LlamaFluff]

Given that i have the goahead from the mod to post this meta, its why Emp is town.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... =5&t=15876

Emp makes a thread about the possible town advantages of an early massclaim in mini-normal games. In this game, he is trying to have an early massclaim. Unless he made a MD thread with the sole intention of getting town cred in one game, it means that he is more likely town trying to prove his point.

He submits other games as evidecnce, and lists of reasons as to why town benifits from this occuring. I really cant see him making a large MD thread to help him look town in one game, occams razor says he is town who attempted to show the forum that massclaim works.

He is not town for the call for massclaim without this meta. With it though, I just cant see him being scum trying to snow us. If it was anyone else in the game, it wouldnt apply, but its not. Also seriously, when was the last time you saw Emp be this active in discussion? Thats a major towntell for most players like him already.

[LlamaFluff]

I still have a hard time believing that Emp would do something as scum that will for sure get him a whole lot of flack, then make a MD post much later about why its a good idea to massclaim early. There are just way to many things that support him being town. I cant see him doing something as scum that he states in a different thread will greatly help the town. Im not voting for Emp today, and I dont want to vote for Corv since a Haylen-Corv pairing doesnt make much sense.

[LlamaFluff]

Not probably... is

Vote No Lynch

[LlamaFluff]

Vote No Lynch

[LlamaFluff]

Im fairly confused at this point given all the WIFOM going around, especially given the comments during the no lynch phases we had from Corv and DP just trying to work in with everything else that is being presented at this point. I still think that Emp is probably town for the thread on massclaims that I pointed out, but after that im now stuck with three people I have somewhat of a townread on.

Some people are making me far more twitchy then others, but I really wouldnt have a hard time arguing anyone to be town at this point. Never expected the Haylen flip to be town so that derailed just about every train of thought I had going, while the NK took down the remaining ones.

I dont see the Emp-Corv pairing being one that works, although that was already established with the Emp-town read I have going on. Even if that read is wrong though, im confident enough that those two are not scum together. Class now, this is probably the only post I will be getting in today so I will try and have a good base down on my thoughts by wednesday

[LlamaFluff]

Was able to get in a slight skim but am too worn out at this point to make a substantial post, I have been doing class related stuff almost nonstop since 7 this morning. Can point out something wrong though

Fenhl/LF still living as opposed to Noc... is interesting. Noc's #1 was Fenhl/LF. Rhinox also had comments on LF.

Noc actually said I was his #3 near the end of the last day since he thought that I was more likely town and just had scummy predicessors. Rhinox only pointed out that I was wrong in how many people were in the game when I was discussing a no lynch.

I do still think Emp is town though on the skim.

[LlamaFluff]

LF- what other reasons do you have for thinking Emp is scum other than the massclaim thread? I really don't see any reason why scum couldn't have posted such a thread. I agree that the thread suggests he really does believe early massclaim is beneficial to the town, but it could simply have been a gambit to suggest early massclaim (something he thought would be perceived as very town-like) in order to earn early town points. Town or scum, he was frustrated that it was perceived to be an anti-town move and started a thread on it.

He is still a town read to me. I REALLY cant see him pulling something like this as scum, and you are really trying to destroy his credibility. I think he is a much better person then to make a thread in MD this far into a game in order to possibly have someone look at it and call him town. The much more obvious solution is that he is town in this game and decided to make it in a part of his series of "thoughts on..." posts.


Anyays

If I toss Emp as a solid town read, it comes down to Corv-DP-neko combo. That doesnt work too well though since it would have ment someone is bussing at some point. The most likely if you are going to look at those three is neko-Corv, since the only time they really pushed on eachother is right before a deadline when neko joined a Corv wagon, but that was immediately before deadline (less than 2 hours) and never revisted.

I need to do more thinking there. I just am getting run ragged with classes. They arent difficult but they are all tons of busywork this semester. Still going to beat the "Emp is town" to death though. The thread makes it make sense, he cant be scum with Corv, or DP. To make Emp town he would HAVE to be scum with neko at this point. I could see that I guess, but I just really dont see Emp-scum.

Yes I know it seems like im stalling a bit, but if I can at least shut down a lynch of my strong town read any vote getting thrown out should give me my duo

[LlamaFluff]

In your post #14, you said you have 3 people with a somewhat town read on. Who is the missing person?

Emp, who I see as very town. The flip from Haylen threw off a lot of my reads, since I expected the scum flip on him to be able to narrow it down to one or two others at worst. Everyone else I had a townish read to varying degrees and instances on through the game.

1. You are confusing intention with happenstance. If EMP DID make the thread in order to influence people's thoughts on alignment, then that is intention and would not be a good thing for EMP's character, etc. If EMP made the thread with no alterior motive or intention but simply because of his feelings regarding massclaim, then there is no problem with his character (I have no problem with EMP's character) but this would make the massclaim a null-tell (could be made as town or as scum) as opposed to "he MUST be town". It is random happenstance that it ended up this way since 1. the thread wasn't made until later in the game, 2. no guarantee that any of us would actually read or know about it. 3. It is also not an indicator of his alignment in this specific game as well.

When I saw that thread in MD, before joining this game, I thought to myself "The next game I see Emp do this, he is probably town". When I joined this game and saw it having happened, it was a solid town tell. What I get from that thread is that either Emp is doing something amazingly cheap by creating a false MD thread to possibly try and buy townpoints, or thinks that early massclaim has merit and went for it.

2. You seem intent on beating to death that EMP is town (which is interesting to me). You also state that on a skim, you think EMP is town. Exactly what did you skim or read OTHER than massclaim that makes you think he is town?

Emp doesnt fit as a partner to you or to DP. If Emp is scum it basically HAS to be with neko, when a town read on that thread only has one possible partner, thats just adding to my town read. If I can beat into people believing that Emp is town in a lylo scenario, its just going to help increase win odds.

3. You say that "any vote thrown out should give me my duo". How does this work?

If any of my three scum picks vote another one of my three scum picks, scum is voting scum, which should trigger some reactionary voting, and show who are the possible duos. If im right on Emp, the only way town can really not lynch scum today is to have him or me lead out with a vote on the town in the trio.

4. Anything else in your notes regarding Neko-Corv? Specifically, if you believe this then make note of specific vote interaction throughout the days, selection of night kills, etc. I.e. why would Neko-Corv allow EMP into lylo as opposed to Noc when more players were willing to lynch Noc than there are willing to lynch EMP and EMP would almost certainly vote for Corv as opposed to Noc considering Corv-DP-LF.

What I brought up was simply looking at votecounts. Im not sure if you are saying though, but I really cant belive any scum pairing would have killed Emp-town. He has had enough flack thrown at him to be a lynch option for a long period of time. If you are saying you-neko, the kill of Noc eliminates someone who was looking at voting you, while leaving DP who was suspect of Emp for most of the game.

[LlamaFluff]

Day 1, Final Votecount

fallen angel (5) –

Rhinox, singersigner,

Empking, Incognito,

AdumbroDeus

Empking (2) -

havingfitz

, Lrdwhyt

singersigner (2) - cruelty, Nocmen

AdumbroDeus

(1) - DavidParker

Not Voting (1) – fallen angel


Day 2, Votecount 11

Corvuus (4) - Empking,

Scott Brosius, Rhinox, Nocmen
singersigner (4)

- neko2086,

Antihero, havingfitz,

DavidParker

Not Voting (3) - Lrdwhyt,

singersigner

, Corvuus

~~~

Day 2, Votecount 11

singersigner

(5) - neko2086,

Antihero, havingfitz

, DavidParker,

Nocmen

Corvuus (3) - Empking,

Scott Brosius, Rhinox

Not Voting (3) - Lrdwhyt,

singersigner

, Corvuus

~~~

Day 3, Votecount 5

Corvuus (4) -

Nocmen, Mr Wright,

Empking, DavidParker
DavidParker (3) - neko2086, Corvuus,

havingfitz
Nocmen (1) - Rhinox

Not Voting (1) - Grump

~~~

Day 3, Final Votecount

Corvuus (4) -

Nocmen

, Empking,

Haylen

, neko2086
DavidParker (2) - Corvuus, Fenhl
Empking (2) -

havingfitz

, DavidParker

Nocmen (1) - Rhinox

~~~

Day 4, votecount 6

Haylen

(3) - neko2086,

Rhinox

, LlamaFluff
corvuus (2) -

Nocmen

, Empking
Empking (2) - corvuus, DavidParker

Not Voting (1) -

aylen

~~~~~~

Ok heres some of the VCs

One thing I notice is VC2-11, I really dont see the singer wagon being 100% town driven, which again is backed up by the fact that Emp-Corv is the least likely pairing to occur in the game. That really doesnt help me out though, that just elimiates a pairing that goes against a town read to start.

One thing that is bugging me about Corv a little is how much he is fighting my read of Emp, but I can possibly see this from town in a few different scenarios. Also one paranoia thing has be wondering about Emp, but I just have a hard time shaking something that I established BEFORE I joined this game as a soild tell.

I guess its just a matter of if peopel are bussing or not

@Corv - If you think that Emp is scum who is scum with him?

[LlamaFluff]

Look of course im not voting yet. I have been getting increasingly paranoid about a neko-emp pairing, and this probably will give more insight into it. Which is what I was talking about earlier. Unless its neko-DP, this should give the pairings.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Emp

Ive been thinking about this during lab, and I think that the Emp-neko pairing makes the most sense. I know its a complete turn of heart but yeah. Its the only reason why I can see me and neko alive today over Noc

[LlamaFluff]

neko can post the QT if he wants to. To make up for the JK scum had daytalk so there is quite a bit there.

Will comment more in the game later on, really have been busy as of late.

[LlamaFluff]

Oh geez...day talk is not even fair...

It depends on how well scum uses it. There are just over 100 posts in the QT, and half of them came after I replace in. Until then it really had little bearing on what scum actually did.

Towns problem was lack of ability to do anything early on, the double no lynch was just crushed most of the chance that they had of winning the game. It left too many suspected people around late in the game for scum to capitalize on. FA should have been lynched day one at the very least, Emp probably too. It would have made the game much harder for my slot who was in some danger for quite some time. Thats all givens though.

The read of Emp was totally genuine. I saw that thread before this game and figured when Emp pulled that stunt he was going to be town. I started reading this game about half a day before I got my role and decided that he was probably town due to it. I know not a lot of people agreed with that, but he was doing something I felt he was genuinely sure was the right thing to do.

Replacing in I actually somehow wanted Emp lynched, since the Corv-Haylen dual wagons left scum the most wiggle room in suspicions. I just was a little concerned of the Corv-Emp one since I had already laid down my read on Emp, and Corv is probably one of the most underrated players on the site and I really didnt want to go up against him with Emp looking like my scum partner, since that could end disasterous. It was hard to make a kill on that last night two, since me and neko both were mostly regarded as town, neko especially since I at least had the previous people card to play.

Was an interesting game, and I think its a balanced setup with the JK role and scum getting daytalk instead. Both good things, but only if used correctly.

[LlamaFluff]

I think you're overplaying how useful day-talk really is. I mean there's not a huge amount scum can do with it early on for strategizing.

Yes and no.

I consider daytalk to be the equivilant of an average strength scum player IF both remaining players are very active and are decent players. In the case of this game, there was no two people active (sans a breif incog-grump pair) until the point where I came in the game. Daytalk is swingy for that matter, it depends on how good the scum players are to be effective or not. I would rather have daytalk then a third player who I view as weak as scum if my other partner was a good player. I think someone did some research where daytalk is equvilant to almost a goon in average strength players.

It just has so many ways to be taken away, epsecially if there are only two players. Inactivity, replacements, early lynch, all of that will destroy the ability of daytalk to be strong in the game.

This game continues to prove the fact of if I joined in the queue im town, if I replaced im scum. Its like clockwork.