Mini 1075 - Fishtown Mafia

[neko2086]

/confirm

Catching up now. Thoughts to come.

[neko2086]

OK, please bear with me here, this'll be a long post. PBP analysis.
I've been absent from the site for awhile, so the fact that the cop has fallen from grace is news to me. If anyone can point me to a discussion on this, I'd be happy to read up on it.

I'm forgoing my notes on the MC unless you want them. I think it's been beaten to death already.

40- I don't appreciate sing's meta-attack on DP. She's basically saying that he's going to lie, which is a somewhat sneaky way of planting the idea that he's going to act scummy. Additionally, she just happens to have had her RVS vote on him, and casually leaves it on him. It could very well be innocent, but at this early stage, it looks like a strategy may be developing. And asking others a series of questions without answering first is bad etiquette at best.

43- Liking this post. HF is thorough and critical.

45- FA makes some pretty banal comments/questions. He asks HF his position on post-D1 massclaims, which was answered in that same post! HF doesn't even seem to realize that in his response. Seems like a rather fluff post went unnoticed here.

47- Emp's misrepresentation of HF's statements continues. Pretty cut and dry example of a strawman. Of course HF's argument sounds bad if you boil it down to "stuff like 'scum will falseclaim'"

53- AD: "I don't want you in lylo"? As in, let's not worry whether he's town or scum and lynch him anyway?

55- DP decides empking is probably town for absolutely no reason. Was that supposed to be a vote for AD? Apparently so, he votes him later.

62- Not sure why emp believes his logic is unrefutable.

65- "…ass I’ve requested earlier…" tee-hee. But seriously, I kinda wish HF would have expanded a bit on his replies to emp's 2nd and 3rd ?s Anyhow, his request for an example of a good D1 MC is completely valid. I'd like to see it, myself.

66- I see AD's point, that emp is possibly taking advantage of an inexperienced town, and yet this is usually the same situation in which experienced players will try out a new tactic, a new persona (though I believe I've played with emp before, and his tone is familiar), etc. I don't know that that is what's going on, and even if so, that doesn't mean he's town, but it's an idea that should be entertained.

68- Something meaningful from DP, and it's a good point, really. Clearly the MC idea has sparked a good conversation, and it's possible that's all it was intended to do. Considering emp's insistence, however, I'm not inclined to believe this. Recklessness = town? Maybe. Town essentially has less to lose, especially at this stage.

69- FA votes DP in part for buddying with emp. This would imply that you believe emp is scum as well, no? But later you say you don't feel that he is obviously scum (72).

70- AD, are you trying to bully people into voting emp? Calling the players inexperienced and weak for not voting emp? At this point, he's probably at the top of my list, worthy of a vote, but there's not nearly enough info to be calling for a lynch just yet. It's only the third page, and there are still people missing!

71- LW has been present but relatively quiet, not contributing much except a slight push on emp. Could be looking for an easy bandwagon.

76- This post kind of blows my mind. So FA is now sure that DP is scum because he is buddying with emp, and yet this is pointing to DP being scum and knowing that emp is town? Am I understanding this correctly? Please let me know if not, because I wonder why you don’t consider the possibility that they’re scumbuddies. I mean, buddying is part of your argument right? Also, like AD, you seem to be saying you don’t really care whether he’s scum or not, we just need to lynch him.

Possible scenario forming here:
AD and FA team taking advantage of strange posts by emp and DP, forming rival bandwagons. Of course there’s the opposite scenario, that emp and DP are an ill-formed team going down in flames very early. And, this only accounts for the most talkative people thus far.

79- FA clears up his stance on emp a bit.

83- I know I’ve been out of it for awhile, but isn’t that exactly what WIFOM is? I’m not sure what LW is getting at here, and more importantly, I’m not sure whether he’s actually taking a stance on anything or just debating WIFOM

90- Who said emp got a scummy for anything related to massclaiming? He got an award for an excellent performance in one game, and we have no clue what that actually was. That doesn’t make him infallible. (I’m in agreement with FA here)

96- DP’s vote on FA just screams omgus.

99- My statement for (90) standing, this is truly a terrible reply. Emp is demanding others to address something that has been beaten to death already, and yet he refuses to respond to several concerns directed toward himself.

101- FA’s question – I’m pretty sure it’s a terrible and even scummy idea to lynch based on stupid play if that stupid play is not also scummy play.

106- She hasn’t said enough yet to warrant too much concern, but it still

really

bothers me that sing snuck in an early vote on DP and was able to leave it there knowing he would unravel.

109- AD SMASH! I see the distraction argument, but more importantly than hurting feelings, there is almost an element of bullying, so that if you can convince everyone they’re being duped by a more experienced player, you can influence their votes.

114- sing is in fact arguing against an irrational DP lynch, which makes me feel better about her.

122- DP: “We should be looking at this game and not discussing player meta and game theory at this point.” So why is this how you ended this post? You almost contribute something meaningful in 125, but it’s still rather unsubstantiated.

123- Emp calls sing either VI or scum, but gives absolutely no reason.

137- The way emp dealt with the MC has been town, DP? Really?

The wifom discussion on p6 here is seriously distracting. Is that intentional?

168- An odd post from DP, he says AD is attempting to set up two mislynches. I think I’m better understanding FA’s earlier argument now. A very possible scenario here is that DP is scum and emp is town, and DP is anticipating emp being lynched with himself as the second obvious choice once emp flips town. The phrase “two mislynches” here is the key.

176- Somehow my predecessor took a path I hadn’t considered at all, and it makes me realize now I have had nothing to say about Nocmen. I don’t know that I agree with Incognito on this one, but I’ll need to pay more attention to Noc. Otherwise, he sums up my thought on sing fairly well.

177- LW takes what is possibly his first real stance in this game, though I’m not sure it’s well-motivated. It looks suspiciously like a bandwagon vote. It’s preceded by one quote, and not a terribly recent one, either.

195- I wasn’t getting scumvibes from Noc before, and this post pretty well sums up my feelings of most of page 8. The MC discussion is incredibly distracting, and LW is seeming more and more to simply be riding the wave. The MC is really all he has to say about emp as of yet, and that seems entirely insufficient.

201- Enter Rhinox. He bases all his reads on the assumption that emp is town. I don’t see anything particularly scummy in this post alone, just a rather hefty and I think unwarranted assumption. I’m hoping there will be more from him and that he won’t ignore the first 9 pages thinking the only relevant happenings are reactions to empking.

215- A more elaborate post from Rhinox, but unfortunately mostly elaborating thoughts on massclaiming, which isn’t all that helpful at this point.

218- A very strange post from sing, which basically says that she gets a good read from Rhinox and will vote with him, not stating any reasons of her own for FA meriting a vote.

229- Rhinox’s arguments concerning emp seem to still be focusing on the MC discussion. Can you address at all emp’s reactions to the others’ reactions? I do appreciate, however, his clearly outlining why he doesn’t like HF’s initial reaction. I’m just not sure that’s enough of an argument to continue with.

230- Sing, are you just going to be ragging on DP the whole time, or are you going to contribute something?

239- Emp declares the FA wagon the only one with decent reasoning, and yet he provides none of that reasoning himself. I’m not sure I agree there is decent reasoning behind it, anyway.

247- DP now agrees that the FA wagon has the most reasoning behind it, and also provides none of that reasoning. Additionally, he has named nocmen and sing as other possible candidates, but does not say why FA should be a better choice. Most importantly, though, he is not voting

any

of the above three people! He is voting AD, and he is the only one. ????

250- A completely incoherent post by DP

273- The fearmongering issue: I see it coming from both singer and AD, frankly. I’ve agreed to the latter, but instead calling it bullying which I think may be more accurate. Singer’s fearmongering started from the beginning, though in a slightly more subtle way, almost like she was joking except not really. At any rate, not sure if Rhinox’s vote on cruelty is all that justified. Cruelty may have simply overlooked AD when considering the fearmongering issue.

Yet, is singer’s fearmongering enough to warrant a vote in itself? DP only has one vote at this point, about 5 hours to deadline, and it’s not even coming from singer. It’s perhaps this fact, and not anything to do with oversight on AD’s behavior, that would warrant a vote on Cruelty. For the record, I don’t think it’s enough, but it has me keeping an eye on him.

D1 ends in a no lynch, which at least two people (HF and Nocmen) were immediately present in the final hours to prevent. HF has apparently misunderstood the rules, and Nocmen refuses to vote FA.

D2 starts with votes left and right, which is normal if they are a continuation of votes left off the previous day, but then emp suddenly votes singer, possibly hoping that no one will notice with all the rapid votes.

295- Enter Corvuus with a list of scum and town reads. What is very interesting here is that he gives nocmen and HF instant town reads because they refused to vote FA (Corvuus’ predecessor), and yet he states earlier that he should have been lynched out of policy. And he finishes with a nice, ‘thanks guys cuz I’m town’, which seems rather disingenuous.

303- Corvuus gets a little omgusy against Rhinox. Freudian slip… eh, you seem to be grasping at straws. In fact, you’re being very defensive considering the wagon on you fell apart at the start of D2.

306-308- A blatant bandwagon vote with absolutely no substance from DP.

318- Another unsubstantial vote from emp. Later he calls him a lurking liar, and while I actually do agree with the first part, I assume the second part is related to the MC debate. Regardless, he doesn’t expound on these things, so they’re rather weak reasoning.

325- LW would have abstained even if he had been present at the end of D1? I’m really not liking the nonchalant attitude toward the no-lynch.

I have to admit, I’ve only skimmed the last few pages, as I have already spent way too much time on this as it is. I’ll get back to recent events soon, but I just want to summarize my thoughts here:

So far, we have a couple lurkers that need to be watched closely: cruelty and LW. I'm more weary of the latter for fairly unsubstantial posting, but cruelty's sing vote also looked a bit opportunistic. Neither was on the FA wagon.

We have a couple VIs: empking and DP. I have very little positive to say for emp, and while I'd like to think he's trying on a new, obtuse personality, he's not acting very pro-town. It's DP that I'm more suspicious of out of these two, however, as he seems to have knowledge of emp's status that would make him have absolutely zero suspicion of him.

I really, really need to stop now. There will be more later, I promise, but I really need to take a break.

[neko2086]

LW is lrdwhyt, yes

OK, other reads:

I'm feeling the most town vibes from Nocmen and HF. They seem the most consistent so far.

AD is leaning town for me, though there are a few instances that worry me, such as his getting hung up on emp's scummy. I really felt a moment of bullying voters early on, but after calming down, he has been more level-headed and fairly consistent.

Sing gives me bad vibes. Her posts are not incredibly informative, and she seems to be trying to plant seeds of doubt about DP in everyone's heads since the game started.

Rhinox is a fairly neutral read at the moment. I'd say town, but his case against FA was rather weak. It gets much better, but only after D2 has started

Corvuus is possibly the hardest read. Again, a couple rather disingenuous posts, but somehow I feel inclined to believe he's town based on the way the wagon formed yesterday.

The more I think about this, the more I think that at least one of singer, DP, and emp is scum, but certainly not all three, and in fact, likely only one of the three unless singer and emp are partners. For now,

Vote: DavidParker

From you, I'd like to know why you thought the FA wagon was the best-looking one, why you then mentioned two other people who might be scum, and why you then left your vote on someone who was

none

of the above people, and who had no other votes.

[neko2086]

Ah, yes. I should note that these were in part notes to myself. If I asked questions to FA or others who are no longer here, I obviously can't expect replacements to account for them. For questions directed to people here, however, I would like a response.

I should note as well that I am on break, and so I had a good amount of time today to read the thread and post that monstrosity. Like others, I will be mostly absent tomorrow, and after the weekend, I can't promise to contribute nearly as much, though that doesn't mean I intend to lurk.

[neko2086]

I know that's all hard to follow, and it's not my preferred method of doing things, but with 15 pages to go over all at once, it's the most economical without skipping too much.

I'm tempted to put a vote on cruelty, myself. I don't think he's gotten very much attention as of yet.

I should mention here that in flipping through the archives, I realized that one of the last games I played over a year ago was with empking, and he was quite a bit more methodical then. Not sure if his personality has changed this much over that period of time or if this is a recent development, but it is a noticeable change. For both emp and DP, I don't mean VI as an insult, just that that seems to be their method of play this game.

Happy Tday for those who celebrate it!

[neko2086]

For those interested, here's the game I last played with empking in which I feel he played in a much more careful, deliberate way. I have to note also that he was scum in this game.

DP: perhaps it got buried, but I have a question for you that I would like answered. You'll find it immediately following my vote for you.
It ties into HF's most recent question for you as well.

HF: Thank you for the clarification, and as requested, I think my top two for a lynch today would be DP and singer, in that order. I doubt that they are both scum, and of the two, I think DP is the one I'm worried about most at the moment. At least until he answers my question and can account for his votes not aligning with his statements on who he thinks is scum.

Singer's vote on FA yesterday looked incredibly opportunistic, changing her mind about other reads with very little explanation. Other posts of hers are of little content other than continuing distracting debates.

[neko2086]

Empking scum makes DavidParker scum or neko scum more likely.

How exactly is that? At the moment I rather doubt that emp and DP are scum together, and I'd really like to know how you tie me in with emp.


DP, I'd still like to know why yesterday, while you were the only one voting AD, you said you saw merit in the FA wagon and you saw nocmen and singer as other candidates, and yet you didn't move your vote. I understand the bit about thinking there was more time before deadline (not sure that I believe it, but I'll entertain the possibility), but why was your singular vote on AD more pressing than voting any of the other three? Also, what do you think of AD and Nocmen now?

[neko2086]

I assume you meant to quote me there, DP. If you were paying more attention, you would have noticed that, as well as the second part of my question: What do you think of AD and Nocmen now?

You seem to be largely ignoring me, which is rather troubling.

AD hasn't posted since his prod, and cruelty hasn't posted for about 5 days, and I don't believe either has given any notice of V/LA, so it would be nice if they could either rejoin us or be replaced.

If and when singer rejoins us, I would like for her to give us an idea of what she found appealing about the FA wagon yesterday as well as what she thinks of corvuus now.

To update HF's list:
havingfitz- Emp and singer
DavidParker- Cruelty and Lrd
Nocmen- singer and Corv
Empking- Lrd and Corv
Corv- Emp and Rhinox
Rhinox- ?
neko- DP and singer
AdumbroDeus- ?
cruelty- ?
singersigner- ?
Lrdwhyt- Emp and ?

[neko2086]

DP, once again, what do you think of AD and Nocmen now? You're either choosing not to answer my questions, or you're not reading very thoroughly, because that's at least the third time I've had to ask this.

Thanks for replacing in, Antihero.

[neko2086]

DP, my patience is wearing thin. Please answer my other question.

Singer, I replaced incognito. As to your recent post:

At this point, I'm going to have to go back and look to remember why I thought FA was a good lynch.

Unless this is an exercise to jog your memory, you'll find that you didn't give any reasons for voting FA other than you liked Rhinox's post. This is precisely one of the reasons I find you scummy.

If it were me that made the case against FA, and Rhinox agreeing, would you find him equally as scummy as you find me now?

If he went about it the same way, yes. There's nothing wrong with agreeing with someone, but using that as your only reason for voting someone, and not saying exactly what it is you agree with,

that's

what's problematic.

It genuinely concerns me that [DP] seems to be playing a much more careful game this time around.

Are we reading the same game? He has dodged the same question three or four times now. He's either not reading my posts very well (or hardly at all, really), which would seem to indicate to me a lack of interest in scumhunting, or at worst he's deliberately avoiding my question. Am I crazy, here?


I really think DP is skating by with very little attention, and I don't want to move my vote, but seeing as how deadline is approaching and this is looking like a lost cause, I'll move my vote to singer if there's not enough consensus on DP. I need to revisit the cases on Emp and Corv, but I'm not sold on moving my vote that way unless it's needed to avoid a no-lynch

[neko2086]

I'm in agreement with Antihero. I'd like to hear your reason for saying this, though. We haven't gotten much of substance from you, yet. I realize you just replaced in and might still be catching up, but certainly you can tell us more about this vote other than that it sucks.

I'll post my reason immediately afterward.

[neko2086]

I'm not asking for a wall of anything, just a reason why that vote sucks.

[neko2086]

I see. So you're basing that entirely on the assumption that emp is town? I'm curious now how much of the game you've read so far.

Anyway, here's my problem with her vote, and I thought it was rather obvious:

Also, I will find it hard to be persuaded to lynch Emp today.

Singer, please elaborate on the following things:
1. your stance on DP. I'm just not understanding what it is you're trying to say about him in these last couple of posts.
2. your stance on Corvuus/FA. What was it that made you vote FA yesterday, and where exactly does Corvuus rank now?
3. what changed your mind on emp, considering you not long ago said you wouldn't want him lynched today.

unvote; vote: singersigner

Voting DP appears to be useless today. I still want answers, though.

[neko2086]

DP, can you gather your thoughts on Noc, please? I'd still like a summary of your thoughts on AD as well, even though he's been replaced. You said they were both possible candidates yesterday, and I'd like to know why.

Also, what is it that Anti is onto, exactly? As far as I can tell, he hasn't actually contributed much, yet. I'm also curious how he came to his conclusion on Noc.

Singer, as far as I can remember, claiming when at L-1 is usually the best move. Number 5 on your list should never even be a consideration, as town rarely has good reason to lie (if ever).

[neko2086]

DP, obviously it's fine for thoughts to change, but yesterday you named two people as possible candidates and you gave absolutely no reason for it, and you never followed up on it, even when asked to multiple times.

Why, exactly, do you think my request is silly? Why do you not think that elaborating on your accusations would be advantageous for the town?

You may think I'm belaboring a useless point. Apparently nobody else cares about you today, which is unfortunate, because you've figured out you can say pretty much anything. I'm hounding you like this because even though it's obvious there's no chance of getting you lynched today (and it really may not be the best move anyway), I think you should be accountable for the things you say, if not now, then certainly later. You are simply not helping the town. At all. Not helpful doesn't always equal scum, sure, but letting play like this go while chalking it up to banal VI play is incredibly dangerous, imo.


Rhinox, I can't really find any reasons you've given for thinking singer isn't scum, other than perhaps by process of elimination. Is that what it is?

I'd really, really like to hear more from anti. He hasn't posted anything of substance, and his predecessor barely posted anything at all.

I'll need to reread some of these last posts, but I have a question for Scott (thanks for replacing in, btw):

My thoughts based on the EOD yesterday are that fallenangel, nocmen, and havingfitz are scum suspects. The latter 2 were both around during deadline posting yet didn't hammer. The fact that nobody hammered fallen angel at all is telling to me.

Do you believe 100% that DP didn't realize that deadline was coming? Do you not believe HF's apparent misconception of the deadline lynch rules?

[neko2086]

DP, good, now can you give us an idea why you named Noc and AD as scum suspects, yesterday?

Rhinox, the case on Singer for me is partly that for a large part of the game, she has posted fairly consistently, and yet she has contributed very little of substance. Of course, there are three other people for whom the same thing could be said (DP, Anti, Lrd). The difference is that aside from Anti recently, there has been no real interest in pursuing any of these. What bothers me the most about her, though, is precisely her vote on FA. Even though you yourself suspect FA/Corv, did the manner of her vote on him not strike

you

in particular as odd?

I want to take a look at this recent exchange. I don't think I've really gotten a good enough read on Rhinox and Corvuus, so this will be a chance to do so. I'll look at the main points recently brought up.
A) FA's reaction to massclaim: I am not getting any impression in FA’s posts that he calls massclaim a scummy thing to propose. He calls it “less-than-popular,” which is entirely accurate. What’s important I think is that you don’t confuse his summaries of the emp case as his own view of emp. He gives a fairly neutral read of emp very consistently.

B) Rhinox maybe has a point here, but I think I see where FA is coming from here. The first post is in response to AD who tells FA to vote Emp because he’s “obvious scum.” FA’s point is that it is rather hasty (and I completely agree) to be so sure that someone is obviously scum so early on that they feel everyone else should feel the same way. This really ties into what I saw as bullying on AD’s part into trying to get everyone to vote emp. FA didn’t like the wifom nature of the arguments, and wouldn’t vote emp just because someone else said it was the obvious thing to do.
He votes DP and says that he seems clearly scummy, which does seem to contradict the above, but the big difference is that he is careful to specify

to me

.

C) This is, as far as I can tell, the real driving case behind the Corvuus wagon. It makes sense on the most intuitive sense. Really, there were a few people readily available around the time of lynch. A scenario with FA-scum makes sense with the no-lynch, as that would have been preferable to bussing a scumbuddy. But the problem here is that the argument starts with the assumption that FA is scum for not being hammered, and the reasoning comes afterward. What about the possibility that FA was town and the scum were on the wagon to begin with? I really, really, really dislike singer’s vote on FA, for instance. Emp’s vote on FA isn’t any better. Also, I don’t think it’s so far-fetched to think scum may not have wanted to hammer a townie. Why does everyone assume there are no consequences to that? The FA wagon was pretty ill-conceived, in my opinion, and scum playing carefully may not have wanted to attach themselves to it, knowing FA would flip town.

I’m not convinced Corv is town, but I’m even less convinced he’s scum. I’m leaning more on Corv being town and an easy target.

I’m sticking with singer for the moment, but that may change depending on how Anti responds to recent posts.

[neko2086]

I'm really not pleased with Noc's vote on Corv, since part of it is on the seemingly contradictory posts, which as I tried to point out, are really not that damning if you look at the entire context closely enough.

Rhinox, is it really telling at all to be "flailing" at L-1? Certainly the scum have more to lose, but no good townie should go down without a fight. That fact that he's pushing your lynch and not singer's is rather interesting. It's very unlikely to happen, and if scum have more to lose, I would think they would put their energy behind a singer lynch.

Singer, I'm the one that has the nerve to suggest a VT claiming a PR isn't a viable option. I don't know if things have changed, but the last time I played, there was a fairly strict policy of LAL (lynch all liars) to prevent town from doing such a thing. Lying as town is rarely ever helpful, but if that has been found to not be true, I'd be interested in reading up on it.
As long as I'm addressing you, what hole, exactly, has Corv dug himself into?
I really can't understand why you think DP's play has been so much better. I haven't played with him before, but he's yet to do anything but make baseless claims and throw his vote around with no explanations.
As to your question to me, I said he's an easy target because of the argument that since he wasn't lynched yesterday, he must have been scum with a scumbuddy or two protecting him. Picking up where one left off the day before is sometimes good, yes, but I think the FA wagon was flawed and it was worth visiting other options. It's your vote on that wagon in particular that I don't like, and when asked about it, you couldn't remember why you voted FA.
I think asking Corv to self-hammer is quite odd as well, as Noc and anti pointed out.

Noc, in what way are Corv's recent posts contradictory?

Scott, I had a question for you, you'll find it on p 19. It's not so pressing now, but I'd still like an answer.

DP, why are you voting Singer now? You were happy to put Corv at L-1 and call for a hammer not too long ago. What changed?

[neko2086]

DP, would you mind humoring us with some sort of reasoning? The way you continue to escape any scrutiny by the others really amazes me.

If Noc is going to be put under pressure for swinging to a mislynch wagon for no reason (which he should), DP should as well, as he was the one to tie the wagons up again with no reason given whatsoever. I preferred a DP lynch yesterday, and I'd really like to revisit this case.

It's end-of-semester time, and I'm sure I'm not the only one here swamped with work, but I'll have to put together a neater case later. I need to think this over more anyway, rather than go strictly by gut, but at any rate, he can't keep going unnoticed.

Vote: DavidParker

What I'd like most from you, right now, is some insight into your recent voting choices.

[neko2086]

Some comments:

If you're town, you shouldn't have any problems with DavidParker switching his vote from a townie to another townie.

Really? Even if there’s no reason for it? I think what you’re missing is that it’s not just

who

is getting the vote that matters, but the how and the why of that vote. I have a problem with Corv’s vote on DP, myself, which I’ll get to, but you’re misrepresenting me by placing me in the group you address here:

People, you are all voting on the assumption that Corvuus is scum.

Wrong. I’ll explain my case soon.

If we lynch Nocmen/DavidParker and they flip town, the very suspicious Corvuus is still here. But if we lynch Corvuus and he flips town, we know Nocmen/DavidParker could not have switched their votes to save their 'scumbuddy'. If you believe in a Nocmen/Corvuus or DavidParker/Corvuus scumteam, lynching Corvuus is the logical first step.

This is true. If a case is going to be drawn on connections of this sort, Corv really should go first, and with the second quote HF highlighted, I’m feeling much more comfortable with a Corv-lynch today. I’m going to quote it again, because HF missed something:

I'm still open for a EMP/Rhinox lynch... and while part of me still thinks DP is crazy town.... he probably should be lynched just to be safe.

Not only is this a terrible reason to vote somebody, but it does look fairly opportunistic. Corv made a last-ditch effort yesterday to start a completely new Rhinox wagon (which I felt had more of a townie motivation), but now, at the start of a new day when such an effort would be much more feasible, and when he says himself he’d still be open for a Rhinox lynch (or Emp, but then retracts that with nonsensical night choice speculation—why would AD protect emp?), he votes DP, I imagine because the wagon has already been started.

Because of this, and because the situation we’re in really makes most sense with Corv being scum, I actually prefer a Corv-lynch today. I do, however, still want to get a case on DP in before the day is over, and there’s plenty of daytime left, so there’s no sense in putting Corv at L-1 right now.

FOS: Corv

A DP case is forthcoming.

[neko2086]

OK, I see emp has now put Corv at L-1. It's no surprise you're voting him, but what's the rush?

[neko2086]

OK, though you were happy to delay his lynch with a Noc lynch because that’s where the bandwagon was? And there was only one vote on Noc.

Anyway, before anyone hammers Corvuus, I want to get out a case on DP. Obviously, if Corv is scum, it is all the more likely that he or Noc (or both) is his partner. My case on DP really just has to do with his own play, however.

Day 1: DP attracted negative attention early on got a few votes, but then people were happy to chalk him up to being an innocent VI once emp and FA got more attention. DP votes AD through speculation that emp is town, and leaves that vote for the rest of the day. In post 213 he now speculates that singer and noc are scumbuddies, with no justification, even when it’s requested by Noc (who never follows up on this).

Now this is a key post that still bothers me. In 247 he reasserts that he thinks noc and/or singer are scum (still no reasoning), but he also says the FA wagon is the only one with a scummy case attached to it (no real reasoning for this), and yet his vote is still on AD, with a deadline looming. No explanation for why AD is a better vote than any of the other three he mentioned. Suddenly, in post 270, Noc is no longer singer’s scumbuddy (no reason given). Nobody seems to care. At this point, he’s really able to say anything and not have to explain it, and I think he’s starting to take advantage of it.

D1 deadline hits, no lynch, DP says he didn’t know deadline was coming so quickly and he should have voted FA. He later says, in 316 and again in post 393

I simply left my vote there rather than unvoting and moving it to an "actual" wagon because I was still analysing the game to see which lynch I wanted to push of the wagons that were there. I had no idea deadline was upon us, no one was acting with any sense of urgency and there was no real mention of it, so I was happy to see how the game progressed before moving my vote.

I am not sure that I buy this. After post 247, there were 3 posts by Fishy giving a 2 day, 19.5 hr, and 5hr deadline warning. Incognito states that the deadline is fast approaching in 256. There was plenty of warning. Also of note, Noc asks DP why he isn’t going after FA and gets no response (and again, doesn’t follow up. Coaching?).

D2: 306-307DP votes Rhinox, no explanation (much later, he says it’s because he saw a scum slip)
358, says he is Ok with Corv (no reasoning), still wants a Rhinox lynch (no reasoning), and would be ok with a cruelty lynch based on lurking.
373, votes cruelty
Over the course of pages 16-18, DP absolutely refuses to say what he thinks of AD and Nocmen and why he no longer suspects them.
340, votes singer and says antihero is onto something, but doesn’t say what.
Once Rhinox votes antihero, DP votes antihero as well saying he didn’t realize anti replaced cruelty, then moves his vote back to singer because of the deadline, but then moves it back to antihero for no reason(452).

Then, when the wagons are tied between Corvuus and Singer, he votes Corvuus because of the deadline, even though he stated earlier he preferred singer over corvuus. He states that he doesn’t find a singer lynch as likely as a corv lynch, but then he ends up switching his vote to singer, tying up the wagons and leaving the town in a no-lynch position, which he seemed to be wanting to avoid. Suddenly, it’s not up to him who gets lynched, but rather the next person who votes, who happens to be Noc.

His voting on D2 is an absolute mess. I don’t buy that he was ever concerned about deadline, or else he wouldn’t have tied up the wagons again. I think he was concerned with putting himself in the best position at the end of the day. If DP and Corv are both scum, DP may have thought for a moment he would need to bus his partner, then realize that he could potentially save him with a shift to singer’s wagon. If Corv is town, it didn’t really matter where DP had his vote, and he may have simply wanted someone else to have to make the decision. I’m not convinced of this latter scenario, however, so I would still prefer a Corv lynch and have DP reexamined once Corv flips.

Still, there is plenty of discussion to be had. Anyone still think DP is a harmless VI, for example?

[neko2086]

OK... anything else?

[neko2086]

DP, you're allowed to change your mind. Obviously. But you change your vote so frequently and without any explanation, that I don't think you're doing any scumhunting with them. And you're right--a large portion of my case has to do with you not giving reasons for thing. You're not cooperating with the town--and I can't imagine you have any pro-town reasons for it.

Jailkeeper is a roleblock + protect. Ad choosing EMP is based on Ad wanting to roleblock EMP, not exactly wanting to protect him. However, I would have expected Ad to want to lynch EMP yet Ad/Scott seemed to think EMP was town. Maybe Ad thought roleblock, Scott thought it protected? Either way, re-reading Ad/Scott doesn't say who he might have targeted but since i am still of the opinion that EMP looks way too scummy for EVERYONE to magically say he is town, then I'll go with my conspiracy theory that scum targeted EMP and know it was blocked/protected. Otherwise this 'confirmation-town-bias' crap makes no sense at all.

OK, this makes a little more sense, but I find it highly unlikely that both the jailkeeper and the scum targeted Emp.


I agree with HF, that this is getting very difficult with two players/player slots that are constantly absent. We need everyone in the conversation before anyone drops the hammer. Plus, these are two slots that have housed some rather unsavory characters, and they need to be watched with caution.

[neko2086]

Just as an FYI, I will be V/LA for about the next 10 days, but I should be able to post sporadically.

Thank you for replacing in, Fenhl and Haylen. Looking forward to some fresh perspectives.

DP, I understand that not divulging everything right away can be a good strategy. I've used it myself. There are times when questions are asked and votes are placed without giving the reason right away because otherwise it defeats the purpose. There comes a time, however, when the purpose has been fulfilled and it's no longer in the town's interest to keep back that information to yourself. The only weapon we have is communication.

Any reason you may have had for not giving any reasoning for your votes can't be valid anymore. I can't see how your vote-switching for no reason is helpful at all for the town, and I can't see how keeping that information (if it even exists) can be helping the town, so I think it's time you fill us in a little. Besides, you promised me earlier that you would. Why are you going back on that now? My guess is that there actually is no method to your madness other than trying to keep your vote in the best strategic place possible, hoping that nobody will question you too much because "that's just the way he is, lolz."

[neko2086]

It's not looking like Haylen or Fenhl will be completely caught up before deadline. Considering the pace of things at the moment, I'm not sure that 5 days will be enough to swing a different wagon. I'm not convinced that either emp or noc is a better lynch than DP or Corv today.

Fenhl, I'd also like to know what you're referencing in terms of vote-hopping. I find it strange that emp is the one that jumps out at you in regards to singer, when there was a good amount of vote-hopping coming from DP and Noc, and yet you haven't said a word on them, or anyone else, as Rhinox mentioned.

Haylen, I found it somewhat odd that you started with Corv and myself to do reads, though I thought since you would probably get through everyone, it wasn't a big deal. Now, with five days left and six more people to get reads on, I'm again wondering why you chose not to include DP in your initial read, considering Corv and DP are the leading wagons. What was your thought process, and what can we expect from you between now and deadline?

Noc, earlier you said you were going to look at the interaction between singer and DP. Have you found anything?

[neko2086]

Neko, I ALWAYS do my reads in order of player list, basically, I read the game in full then I ISO players as this seems to get me further than actually reading the game as a whole.

Duh, that makes more sense now. Seems like a good strategy, though it's too bad you may not be able to be caught up by deadline.

Unvoting just to vote again straight after doesn't even approach being a scum tell.

I agree with this, and I really don't see what Fenhl thinks is scummy about moving a vote after unvoting somebody. A person either unvotes because they no longer feel the person they're voting is scum, or they unvote because they find somebody else scummier. The latter is probably the most common. Of course, it

is

generally expected that a reason be given for the vote change, but it's DP more than anyone else who is not doing so.

I feel that singer's voting pattern could have been just following trends with DP, whether singer thought he was town or scum. But without singer as scum, it doesn't make too much sense.

Of course not. If I were basing my case against DP on Singer's alignment as scum, it wouldn't make sense either. But I'm not sure how his alignment hinges on Singer's. It just seems like you're looking at this backwards.

singer's actions are either damning or framing if he's scum

I don't know that I agree with that (or maybe I'm not understanding what you're trying to say). I thought at one point that Singer was possibly trying to paint DP in a bad light by bringing up meta, so if she turned up scum, I actually would have been more inclined to believe DP to be town. Of course, toward the end she started saying that DP was playing a much more careful game (which really blows my mind), which I could see as pointing to a sing/DP scumteam, but just because she didn't turn up scum doesn't mean he's cleared by this. So, I'm still confused about what it is you see in Singer's voting pattern that makes it unlikely that DP is scum now that she turned up town. She wasn't even voting most of D2.

[neko2086]

Received prod, v/la most of the day today, but will post tonight hopefully.

For now,

unvote

. I don't like having DP at l-1 when he's threatening to self-vote. I want to hear what he has to say.

[neko2086]

OK...

My main worry about DP has been his disinterest in the town's welfare, and while I'm not entirely convinced it's there, there's something fairly genuine about these posts that makes me feel way too hesitant for a lynch on him. It's a bit late in the game, but this is a substantial post, with what looks like some genuine scumhunting.

I think lynching anyone other than corv at this point is going to be a mistake. I'd be willing to hammer tomorrow. I think Rhinox still wanted to say something, though, before either of us does.

[neko2086]

I'm sorry, but I just don't have the time to go through and see if emp would be a better lynch today, but I can't see how right at the moment. I'm going through the airport soon, and so I'm not sure if I'll have any time to post again today.

vote: Corvuus

I really think this is the best move now. I'm counting on someone to drop the hammer before deadline.

[neko2086]

Rhinox, what happened? I thought you would be posting again.

Looking back to the D1 no-lynch, however, there are two people still alive who were not voting Corv/FA: Lordwhyt (now Fenhl) and DP. HF was also not voting him both times. I'm really not sure what to think of DP anymore. He actually gave some reasoning for voting Emp, but I still don't like the way this wagon formed, even if HF was on it.

Fenhl on the other hand, looks much worse. He jumps on the DP wagon for votehopping (which he goes on to do himself), then votes with DP for an emp lynch. He says nothing about Corvuus, though. I'd like to know 2 things from you, Fenhl: what you think of Corv, and why you didn't think it was necessary to check back in before deadline hit.

DP, why did you miss the deadline this time?

Noc, why are you not sure about Corv now? The way I see it, if Fenhl is scum, Corv could very well still be scum with Fenhl trying to protect him, getting absolutely anybody else lynched.

vote: Fenhl

Please explain your thought process from yesterday.

[neko2086]

DP- I was set on your lynch until you actually started participating. As for Corvuus, he was the best option at the end of the day yesterday. The quickwagon on emp was formed right before deadline, which is a terrible idea unless you know you have enough votes for a lynch (or if you want to deliberately cause a no-lynch). You of all people, if I'm to believe your explanation of your play this game, should understand the use of a quickwagon on fenhl.

Corv- I'm intrigued. Why me and emp? What about Noc? (am I on the right track?)

Are we surprised to see a quick wagon on Fenhl? If so, I think I know why. Can anyone tell me, without rereading, what they remember about Lordwhyt and Grump? No? Well then let's just keep pretending this is a 10-player game. Or 9-player game even -- I can think of another quickwagon that could form and be as useful, but it seems quite less pressing. This is the start of a new day, with 1 mislynch and 2 no-lynches (!!!!). Nobody should get a free pass at this point, and it's imperative that some people join the game.

DP, just seeing your recent post, I was confused at first but I see what you're saying now. Either Corv and Fenhl are scum together or Emp is scum with anyone that's not Corv/Fenhl. Since you're voting emp and you're grieving against the fenhl wagon, why is it you've managed to find a connection between Corv and Fenhl (and list it first) but find it less convincing than emp + ??? as a good vote?

[neko2086]

I can remember very little about either of them. Lordwhyt was a lurker who contributed very little when he did post, and I honestly can't remember anything about Grump. They have been largely absent, and we've been happy to ignore them up to now, which we just can't do anymore. A quickwagon (NOT a quicklynch, mind you), I think is appropriate right now, and I don't believe I asked anybody else to join it. The very last thing I want right now is a quicklynch. If someone were to put Fenhl at L-1 right now, however, that would be rather alarming. I think the other potential quickwagon is fairly obvious, but Fenhl really needs to account for his actions asap so that we can keep this game moving with everyone participating. We've talked about you and DP and that's not over, but it's the start of a new day and I don't see the need to tunnel-vision on you two (it would be dangerous to do so).

Incidentally, I don't really think you're the best lynch at the moment. Between yourself and DP yesterday, your lynch would have yielded the most information. At this point, of course, we can't lynch just to get information (whether or not we're in mylo). I said I was intrigued because you're the first person to actually take a critical look at my play, which makes me more inclined to think you're town, even if you've completely misunderstood my intentions (which could be a misrepresentation, but I doubt it).

[neko2086]

unvote: Fenhl

What a bust.

Corv, it's like you've never heard of a pressure vote before. He was at L-2, and unless everyone is scum or really dumb, there is no way a quicklynch is happening (it's technically possible I suppose, but I just can't imagine coordinating a quicklynch at L-2 to be in any way feasible). But whatever, he's going to be replaced now, so we can just go back to pretending it's a 10-player game if you'd like. No matter how much you may be convinced Emp is scum, there is no reason to be ignoring another scummy player at the beginning of a new day. Have you considered the possibility that there may only be two scum, and that neither of them have been very present this game? Sure Emp might look scummy to you, but it's easy to look scummier than someone who hasn't been here most the entire game. I will certainly take a look at Emp, as I will everyone else because this game needs a major reanalysis, but it is imperative that everyone be participating from this point on. Can you see where I'm coming from? And I generally don't think FoSs are helpful unless I don't want to move a vote or voting would place someone at L-1/hammer too early

So at the very least, can we stop pretending this is a 9-player game?

vote: Haylen

I think DP is more likely to be town due to Corvuus' buddying of him but more information would be gained from either of their lynches.

Why exactly does this make DP more likely to be town, and why on earth do you then say that either of their lynches would yield more information when you're not even sure whether we're in mylo (if we are, we can't just lynch to get info (didn't I just say that?))? And, you say your case is based on what you said yesterday (which was your very first post, 5 pages ago) and what others have said since (over the past 5 pages). Could you be more specific?

I don't have time to look at emp or others now, but we need to hear something substantial from Haylen anyway.

[neko2086]

Emp- Not sure yet. I feel pretty confident that at least one of Fenhl and Haylen is scum if not both, but Fenhl seems more likely. In the meantime, Haylen does seem to be posting just enough to get by. We got one very substantial read on two players, which appeared to be the first part of a series, but the rest of it never came. She even stated she would not be revealing the rest of her town reads. I have to wonder what she came across that made her stop her player summaries. If she was going in order of the original playerlist, you would have been next. I can't help but think that she doesn't want to commit to a thorough read on you. Why this should be, I'm not sure yet. It could very well be that you're scumbuddies and she doesn't want to have to say too much about her partner, or it could just be that she doesn't want to say anything about you because you're somewhat of a polarizing figure in this game. It just seems strange to me that she should start reads like that and end rather abruptly.

Scum like to buddy townies.

They also like to buddy their scumpartners. The biggest issue here, though, is if you're saying DP is likely town because of this, then why say that DP might be a good lynch to get info when you're not sure if we're in mylo?

I still need to go through and get my own reads updated. I hope to get this done this weekend since this next week will be rather hectic.

[neko2086]

OK, updating my reads. I think a summary of voting patterns may be helpful (this is mostly for reference):

D1

started with two wagons forming, one on DP and one on Emp, with three votes each for awhile. Lrdwhyt(/Grump/Fenhl/?), who I will hereafter just refer to as LGF (to be updated when we get a replacement), temporarily breaks the tie by voting Emp, but once LGF is on the Emp wagon, cruelty gets off. (I will similarly refer to Cruelty/Antihero/Mr. Wright/Haylen as CAMH)

Meanwhile, Rhinox starts the FA-wagon, later joined by Singer and Emp, making it the new contender with the Emp-wagon. The two are tied 3-3 right up to deadline. With 19 hours left, Noc switches from non-contender DP to non-contender Singer (with CAMH), and both keep their votes on Singer until deadline.

Incog(/neko) breaks the tie voting FA and AD jumps from Emp to FA to prevent a no-lynch. Those not voting FA at deadline: HF, LGF, CAMH, Noc, DP.

D2

- Competing wagons form on Corv, Singer, and Emp, but it’s the Singer wagon that eventually takes off, briefly reaching L-1 until a wagon forms on CAMH, tying the two at 3-3 until Rhinox puts Corv at 3, and Noc and DP put Corv at L-1. DP ties the Sing and Corv wagons with 10 hours left, then Noc switches to put Singer at majority. Final votecount:

singersigner (5) - neko2086, CAMH, havingfitz, DavidParker, Nocmen
Corvuus (4) - Empking, Scott Brosius (AD), Rhinox, singersigner

Not Voting (2) - LGF, Corvuus

D3

- A wagon immediately forms on Noc, but it is soon tied with Corv (3-3), with DP somewhat in the running. DP puts Corv at L-1 rather early, and Corv more or less stays there until, with 12 hours left, a last-ditch effort to lynch Emp pulls DP off the wagon. I put Corv back at L-1, but there is no hammer. Final votecount (corrected):

Corvuus (4) - Nocmen, Empking, CAMH, neko2086
Empking (3) - havingfitz, DavidParker, LGF
DavidParker (1) - Corvuus,
Nocmen (1) - Rhinox

Note that LGF is not only consistently not voting Corv, but is also consistently voting against a lynch candidate. Also consistently not voting Corv at deadline is DP. DP’s earlier play is really terrible, and I’ve already summarized some reasons for believing there’s a good chance he’s scum. His more recent posts have been much more thought out, but with yet another no-lynch that he could have prevented, I’d consider him a possible lynch candidate again.

Corv, as I’ve said, I find not quite as likely to be scum at this point. In fact, the cases against FA/Corv have seemed fairly weak. His lynch would have been incredibly useful yesterday, and it was the best chance at a lynch, but there are much better options today.

LGF and CAMH are basically in the same category- a series of non-existent players. May we all be blessed with the patience of our mod for dealing with so many replacements in one game. Each of these players has been largely ignored until now, hence my eagerness to vote them and shine some light on them. After all, there is a slight possibility that they are two scum in a two-scum game. The biggest thing separating the two is the fact that at least Haylen wasn’t partly responsible for the latest no-lynch, while Fenhl was part of the last-minute Emp wagon. Suspect posts can be found from each of them recently, and it actually would not be too far out there to think they are both scum considering their voting patterns.

Emp- Early arguments against Emp I found pretty weak. The early MC request is a null-tell, really. I don’t like all of his reactions in that period, but since then he has played fairly level-headedly. Early D3 he put Corv at L-1, saying he didn’t want to delay the lynch, but at the start of D3 he was voting Noc because that’s where the wagon was. This is a bit troubling, but I otherwise don’t see much of a case on him, yet his name, like Corv’s continually comes up for a lynch. HF was probably the biggest proponent from D1, and in the effort to get him lynched at the end of D3, it’s DP and Fenhl. Corv asks me to reconsider voting alongside Emp, but should I really feel compelled to vote with DP and LGF? Of course, there is the possibility that Emp is scum and his partner(s) thought some distancing+no-lynch+not having to commit to a hammer looked rather appealing. I doubt, however, an Emp+LGF combo, unless their strategy has been to try to bus each other. An Emp+DP combo might yet be possible. But I still don’t see where the case on Emp has been laid out very neatly. Corv insists he’s most likely to be scum probability-wise, but what is that based on? Is this going back to one of your first posts, Corv?

Noc- There are some good reasons to think Noc might be scum based on votes. He helped prevent Corv’s lynch on both D1 and D2. But DP is the one that swung the wagon toward Singer D2, and he’s just as much responsible for the D1 no-lynch. Noc’s posts don’t reveal, as far as I can see, anything too troubling except for his D2 vote on Corv, which I think I’ve already talked about.

Rhinox- Also absent from the D3 deadline, but mostly solid posts. I don’t agree with most of his earlier case against Corvuus, but I don’t see anything very scummy by it.

I think that covers everybody, and with that I feel confident in finding scum in one if not all or most of LGF, Haylen, and DP. I’m keeping my vote on Haylen as there are still questions she needs to answer.

DP, we’re not in the stage of lynching people to “see where it goes.” Also, I think a quickwagon only leading to L-2 in possible mylo pales in comparison to a quickwagon leading to a no-lynch and the cause of the possible mylo. Tell me, whose votes were you counting on to make that wagon work?

[neko2086]

I apologize for the lengthy post, but from now until deadline my posting will be very sporadic. My masters exams are in a week and I can't devote a great deal of time doing any major reads in this game until next weekend (deadline) so I need to get this on the table now. I will be checking in, though, as I'm still up in the air as to where the best lynch will be, and since there should be another replacement coming.

[neko2086]

I am not in favor of a no-lynch, for the reasons given by Rhinox. Massclaim at this point is probably a good idea, and since corv started and named emp to go next, that seems like a good way to go.

[neko2086]

VT.

Still three days to deadline?

[neko2086]

DP, I'm still wondering whose votes you were counting on for an Emp-lynch yesterday.

Haylen, there are two days left. Why are you not voting? Also, do you have an opinion on anyone else but Corv? He's really the only person you've mentioned as a possible scum candidate thus far, and as far as I can tell, the reasoning is rather weak. Why is it you can't get a read on Emp? He would have been next in your player analyses, and that's where you stopped.

I don't like your second to last post at all. You say you don't like being suspected due to your predecessors' actions, yet you were happy to analyse FA's actions when building your one and only case this game. Additionally, you're happy to suspect I'm town because of Incog's play. I agree that it's a tough part of replacing, but that's just something that has to be dealt with, and I don't like how you brought it up as though we should disregard your predecessors' play. I also don't really care what happened in the last game that this happened, as it's pretty irrelevant.

I'm happy to keep my vote here, except for the fact that LGFL is now on the wagon, though I can't help but feel like it might be bussing. Also, my MA exams are tomorrow, so I have very little time to think about this game between now and deadline, so Haylen is where I'm keeping my vote. I feel fairly confident about this, though, and feel confident enough we won't wind up with another no-lynch today. I'll check the game, but I don't plan to move my vote unless absolutely necessary (or unless Haylen has really good answers, though I think her play is pretty straightforwardly unexcusable)

[neko2086]

Vote: No lynch

just in case.

[neko2086]

I need to do some major rereading.

DP, how have I coasted through the game? Why don't you think Emp + Corv is possible?

Corv, the wifominess of your statement, and the fact that you decided to bring that up during the no-lynch standoff is rather troubling. Is it really that surprising that I'm still here? As far as I can tell, there are two good reasons to keep me. The first is if I'm being set up, and if you're not the one doing it, you certainly gave scum reason to.

The other is if I've been wrong this entire game. DP is right in that I've gone after him most of the game, and though I think I have excellent reasons to think he's scum (even more since the last time I made a case against him), I have to wonder now if I've been on the wrong track. I would have expected him to kill me last night. If this is the case, one or both of Emp and Corv must be scum, as I've pegged them as town most of the game.

And still, there are good reasons to think llama may be scum, though I also had him pegged as scum earlier based on predecessors. So like I said, I need to do a major reread.

[neko2086]

Rather busy tonight, so no re-read yet, but I thought I should respond to a few things:

To comment on DP's posts: I don't think the fact that Corv is still alive says any more than anybody else still being alive, at least in terms of the NK. The fact that he hasn't been lynched is possibly another story, mostly due to our incompetence in lynching people (in which you play a fairly significant role, DP). Also, I'm still confused on your position on Emp.

To Corv: I don't know that the fact I'm still alive really needed to be brought up. I think I gave two very plausible reasons that I should still be here. Trying to argue whether I'm town or scum based on my surviving the night seems rather pointless to me, as there is an obvious explanation either way. The fact that you jumped at the issue right away (and during the no-lynch phase), regardless of whether you actually called for my lynch, is what I find troubling. And actually, you did call for my lynch based on a "general rule of thumb" that it "simply can't be" that a town-looking player survives so long.

I think I explained what I meant about my reads possibly being wrong. If DP, especially, is town, there is plenty of reason to keep me here based on my earlier reads. Specifically, I highly doubt a LF/DP pairing at this point, which I would have felt very sure of yesterday had I known Haylen were town.

To Emp (and all): The self-hammering issue was something I never felt was much of a tell. An argument could be made that since town had much less to lose toward the beginning of the game, a last-minute self-hammer really should have been the town move in order to at least provide the town some info. I can see, on the other hand, a possible townie-motivation in that keeping oneself alive is just simply keeping town numbers up. The price for this, however, as we've seen is that that person starts to be the dominating topic of conversation, and it would have possibly been better to just have gotten a flip from him and moved on. But then again, nobody wants to go down in a self-hammer, and as we've seen from Haylen at least, there is some strong sentiment against self-hammering in general. So I still say probably a null-tell, or at least not strong enough of an argument at this point in the game.

So Emp, is there any other reason you're choosing Corv over DP, since the self-hammer is all you really mentioned?

LF- what other reasons do you have for thinking Emp is scum other than the massclaim thread? I really don't see any reason why scum couldn't have posted such a thread. I agree that the thread suggests he really does believe early massclaim is beneficial to the town, but it could simply have been a gambit to suggest early massclaim (something he thought would be perceived as very town-like) in order to earn early town points. Town or scum, he was frustrated that it was perceived to be an anti-town move and started a thread on it.

[neko2086]

LF, I'm not saying he created the thread just for is to look at it and think he's town. I'm saying that regardless of his alignment, he perceives early massclaim as something pro-town, and when those in this game didn't agree, he was frustrated and started a thread about it. I don't believe he meant for it to bear on our discussion here at all, town or scum.

Obviously it's not as likely that he's scum, since he would have been advocating something he believed would have put him at a disadvantage, though it's not impossible.

[neko2086]

Sorry all, but I will be busy all day today. Tomorrow I should be able to finish my reread.

[neko2086]

Yes, at this point on of Corv and Emp is clearly scum, and I agree that it's highly unlikely that both are. I'm not completely done with my rereads, and I need to seriously get caught up on RL work since I was in a meeting all day yesterday, but later tonight I should be able to finish. In the meantime, this is what I'm thinking:

I've been trying to think of possible scum pairings to see if anybody can be eliminated, and it seems to me there are two distinct possibilities-- either Emp+LF or Corv+DP.

Other combinations are possible but seem less likely. While there was quite a bit of buddying between DP and Emp early on, DP (with HF) did try to pull a last minute wagon on Emp, which was obviously not going to be successful, but it did prevent Corv from getting lynched. DP has consistently avoided the Corv-wagon at deadline. The only thing that is not so clear about this pairing is that DP would have to have decided to try a bussing approach today, and I'm not sure how much sense that makes. And yet, DP has been pretty reckless this entire game, so I don't know why that should surprise me.

Corv and LF is not out of the question. LF's predecessors are just as responsible for keeping Corv from being lynched. Based on what we've seen with LF recently, however, I would guess if he's scum he's doing everything he can to keep Emp from being lynched today. This pairing would mean Lrd and Emp were trying to distance themselves from the beginning when they voted each other. Since Emp only ever got to L-2, and he was the only one voting Lrd, there would have been no reason to worry about actually having to bus. He has never actually given much reason to vote Lrd or Fenhl, and has consistently moved his focus back to Corv.

Right at the moment, I just slightly see the Corv+DP pairing as the most likely, but I need to finish my reread and see if this makes the most sense.

Corv- Obviously I'm certainly considering a vote on Emp, just as I am on you since you are the options. I'm wondering just how unlikely you see an Emp-LF pairing. If Emp is scum, he was clearly strategizing the hell out of this game from the beginning with the massclaim business. In this case, it seems to me all the more likely he might try to distance himself from Lrd consistently but without pushing it too far.

Emp- We just haven't heard a lot from you. Who do you think Corv's partner is?

[neko2086]

I'm thinking an emp vote is good.

vote: Empking

[neko2086]

Yeah, here's the QT thread-- http://www.quicktopic.com/45/H/8wwbZbLHLGs

I spend most of it talking to myself until llama arrives. Props to him for saving a quickly sinking role that I was ready to bus if necessary.

The advantage of the daytalk early on was following incog's strategy to keep the town split as much as possible and making sure the two scum are focused on different people, which is easier to coordinate with daytalk.

My job was relatively easy since I replaced into a town-looking position, and since in general, it seemed like the town was ready to accept things at face value. Fairly large posts (which I usually do anyway) seemed to keep everyone happy, except for Corv later on, who started to question my play, but nobody cared what he had to say so I never had to worry about it too much. I think the game would have changed pretty drastically if Corv/FA had just been lynched and the town could have moved on. In that sense, maybe a self-hammer would have been best, but honestly, I don't know what I would have done in that situation.

DP, no hard feelings. I don't think I would have done much differently as town, maybe not so much to get you lynched as just to get you talking. I think you played a much better second half of the game.

More comments later, probably

[neko2086]

Big thanks to Fishy for being a great mod and dealing with so many replacements!