Mini 1042 - Skillville - GAME OVER!

[Alduskkel]

/confirm

[Alduskkel]

Those are clearly Scum Kittens.

Vote: Reckamonic

.

[Alduskkel]

I think Reckamonic is scum buddies with

Spoiler: dun dun dun (dramatic music)

themselves!!

[Alduskkel]

Scumbuddying, that's what they're doing.

[Alduskkel]

Vote: Socrates

.

I want to know

what

reactions you got, and what they tell you. If you have nothing to show for it, then your L-1 vote on me was just bandwagoning with the possibility of a quicklynch (and it can happen, people are dumb). Same goes for Zachrulez, what did you get out of it?

@Scott Brosius: So, were you looking for reactions?

It's usually the first one that cracks and leaves the wagon that looks the best. What better way to gain town points than to do that?

Asking for an explanation doesn't sit right with me either.

Asking for an explanation is scummy? I don't have to explain why that is wrong, do I? Plus, I think that if a wagon hits L-1 on page 2 then you're going to see that who unvotes first is purely dependent on who logs on first. Townies unvote because they don't want a quick lynch, Mafia unvote because they want to look like Townies (although potentially they can just lurk around, leave their vote on and hope for the best). In fact all that said I think a Townie would be more likely to unvote than a Mafia.

Quick note, I like to use Townie as a catch-all term for pro-Town players and if I want to be specific about non-PRs I'll say Vanilla Townies.

@Socrates: Why are you voting for DemonHybrid? Because you disagree with him?

DH completely forgot to consider the possibility that Scott was scum. I would be extremely shocked if those two turned out to be scum buddies.

Elaborate.

@YoshiX: How can you just pop in and confirm when a large wagon had already formed? Can't you even be bothered to throw in a random vote?

Finally, having an overly cute avatar might make you less likely to be lynched so Reckamonic is the scummiest by that definition.

[Alduskkel]

I'm seeing a lot of theory discussion and then discussion about theory discussion. That doesn't help us find scum, I think we should move away from that and maybe take it to MD.

No, that's not all I'm going to say about the stuff that's happened since I last posted, but since there are a bunch of text walls I just felt I should post a little something before embarking on a proper response.

DemonHybrid: Don't quote a wall of text and then bold your own wall of text within it. It just makes the game even longer than it should be.

[Alduskkel]

Socrates puts Ald at L-1 on page 2... Meh, nulltell at best.

At best? That phrase usually means that you think that the best case scenario is unlikely, so from that am I to think that you thought it was scummy?

@Scott Brosius:

vote: Aldusskel

L-1!

No claim. Somebody hammer.

Woo real vote time!

Unvote
Vote: Socrates

Yay! Reasons?

Why haven't you answered this? There's been a LOT of discussion over this, and of course Socrates has tried to explain that he was looking for reactions. Do you buy that? Why or why not?

@vollkan: You're a fairly active player, but you haven't come out and voted for anyone (except me in the RVS). Who do you suspect? I notice you giving out stuff like +4 and -2. I take it that means +4scummy and -2notscummy but how significant are those numbers? Is +4 a lot or a little? Why haven't you voted for either of the 2 people (Socrates, DemonHybrid) who you gave +4s to?

@DemonHybrid: I'm still not really clear on why Zachrulez is scummy. You said that he was overreacting to your vote, but since you voted without explanation what did you expect him to do, not inquire about it?

Unvote: Reckamonic

.

Not convinced that anyone is scummy yet, but we'll see what I get from the above questions.

[Alduskkel]

And what makes that scummy and not just a disagreement on theory, Scott?

[Alduskkel]

Unvote: Reckamonic

.

But you're voting Socrates...

Unvote: Socrates

. I blame the mod (see above).

Ack, sorry, missed that vote somehow. It's all better now.

[Alduskkel]

So, is your vote on Socrates for a policy lynch then?
Who do you think is

scummy

?

[Alduskkel]

@horrordude: I think there are some problems with your Zachrulez accusations:
-Prolonging the RVS and not having content are not mutually exclusive.
-If someone does the above, and it's really early in the game (in this case early page 2) then that's as good a reason as any to vote someone.
-Even if it's an L-5 vote, Zachrulez was bound to get some kind of reaction from me. Maybe I'd question it, maybe I'd ignore, maybe I'd do something else. Who knows?

Quick List of Lurkers to Watch (most lurky to least lurky):
YoshiX
Espeonage
Scott Brosius
q21 (maybe... he just seems to be in the background a bit right now)

@DemonHybrid: Do examples of quicklynchings need to be from non-Newbie games?

What do you think of voll? Is he mostly right?

Why are you so interested in vollkan?

Horror is scummy because of his attacks and responses to Zach. They are terrible, grasping, stretching. Again, and again, and again.
You [DemonHybrid] are scum because your reaction to the early game was awful. No, I'm not going to give you a step by step guide to why you are scum, you wouldn't believe me anyways and I hate making little ISO analysis.

Hey Reckamonic, how about you give the rest of the town a step by step guide on why either of these 2 are scum? Because I can assure you that you will NOT be convincing anyone without backing up your suspicions. If you're truly onto something (maybe you are) then explain it.

If you won't, then the people you think are scum are not going to get lynched, and that won't be playing to win, will it?

Might vote Reckamonic pending his answers to those questions.

[Alduskkel]

Newbie 718 - Vamparific was quicklynched on page 1 of Day 1. The hammer was cast by a townie.
Newbie 720 - Vamparific was quicklynched on page 4 of Day 1. The hammer was cast by a mafioso.

Vamparific got a title for it (Noose Magnet) so that's how I remembered.

[Alduskkel]

Did a search on the wiki for quicklynch:
Newbie 625 - Lynari was quicklynched on page 4 of Day 1. The hammer was cast by a townie.

Mini 741 - Trumpet of Doom was quicklynched on page 5 of Day 1. The hammer was cast by a townie.

So yeah! Quicklynching is not unheard of, and needless to say it sucks when it happens.

[Alduskkel]

And of course those 4 aren't the only ones, just the easily found ones.

By the way, why do you want to know Reckamonic's thoughts on vollkan? Why those 2 in particular?

[Alduskkel]

Reckamonic, respond to what I posted.

[Alduskkel]

I'm curious as to who is being the VI: Reckoner or dramonic?

[Alduskkel]

Espeonage: Why is Zachrulez scum?

Reckamonic: Who do you think you're going to convince without providing reasons? You've said a lot of things in that last post, but didn't provide any evidence to back it up. I am almost tempted to accuse you of violating Rule 1.

Vote: Reckamonic

. Maybe that will help you back up your reads.

[Alduskkel]

Not to mention, if Zach isn't looking good then why aren't you voting for him, Espeonage?

[Alduskkel]

What makes his tone scummy?

[Alduskkel]

Mod: Prod Scott Brosius

.

@Espeonage: Last time I checked being mocking is a personality thing and isn't scummy.

[Alduskkel]

I am pretty sure it was a misspelling of comprise, not compromise.

Also, is it more or are the number of VIs in games increasing lately (we've got Espeonage and Reckamonic in this one).

Although maybe I'll have a better opinion of those VIs if they would actually back up their reads *hint hint*.

Preview Edit: Called it on the misspelling thing.

[Alduskkel]

Also Reckamonic's recent "AtE" post reminds me of this.

[Alduskkel]

Did you mean to say VT?

[Alduskkel]

So, Reckamonic is a vanilla townie or scum? Why can't he be a power role?

[Alduskkel]

First of all, your sample size sucks. Second of all, probability says that most of the time VIs will be scum or vanilla townies. BUT you can't discount something just because it is unlikely.

Unless you're a Day Role Cop or something, you're making an assumption with little base to it.

And anyway, true VIs are the ones who are always like that, even if they're PRs are scum are what have you.

Seriously, just don't make assumptions.

[Alduskkel]

True VIs are that way because of their personality, and regardless of their role.

I don't know why you're so stubborn on this point. It's not hard to see that Reckamonic COULD be a PR, but you just want to go ahead and rule it out.

[Alduskkel]

Wait, what? All I was suggesting was that instead of Reckamonic being scum or vanilla town, he could be scum or town. Come to think of it, he could be a third party for all we know.

How did that make you unvote?

[Alduskkel]

Pro-Tip: Don't skim.

[Alduskkel]

You make a good point about Reckamonic ignoring me. However, I have to ask what about post 75 was OMGUS. After all, I did give reasons, what's wrong with them?

I'm a bit wary of you picking the two easiest targets (Reckamonic & Espeonage) to have a scum read on. I won't call it a scum tell yet (they're easy targets for a reason) but it's something I'll be keeping an eye on.

[Alduskkel]

@Espeonage voters: Why Espeonage and not Reckamonic?

[Alduskkel]

Unvote

. Wanted to see some effort toward a town win condition from Reckamonic, I think I've gotten that at least somewhat.

With Espeonage going/gone I'm going to have to rethink my scum reads.

[Alduskkel]

Reckamonic is town.

Why?

vote reck

I'll read and post tomorow.

God I hate you so much shotty. You're worse than zwet. Are you going to do anything productive this game?

Tempted to vote shotty for policy reasons but I know that
a. Lynches on policy alone are absurdly tough to organize.
b. It probably wouldn't get us anywhere come Day 2.

@vollkan: What do you think of DemonHybrid's #289 where he addresses what you're voting him for? It's kind of scummy to not even acknowledge that.

FoS: vollkan

.

[Alduskkel]

Unvote
Vote:drshotty

Solves policy, and Esp was scummy anyway.

So, why was Espeonage scummy? He lurked for out of game reasons. And is shotty even scummy to you?

I really haven't seen much scum hunting from you, Scott (except maybe for iso #8). Also, calling people scummy for lurking (i.e. Espeonage) is pretty hypocritical. Have you seen your posts and # of posts?

Confidence is not a scum tell, it just means he is sticking to his guns and not jumping all over the place like oppertunist scum(aka zach)

And how has Zach been opportunistic?

Now this is almost fishing and it kind of makes me mad.

What do you mean by fishing, exactly?

Yes in a RVS supporting it is a great thing. Scum want the RVS to die quickly so no convo's will really start. And if you are so anti-RVS(which you haven't been in other games) why did you RQS? You just sat there and insult him for trying to do something.

You're pretty much taking the opposite stance on theory here vs. Zach. He says that scum want the RVS to be prolonged so that real discussion takes longer to get going. Why is he wrong, and why is that scummy?

There are other problems with your case on Zach that have been noted already. I won't go into them.

I noticed in post 340 that you don't address any of vollkan's points except for the meta one. Why? Digging up those links has got to be harder than responding to his other points.

Vote: Scott Brosius

.

[Alduskkel]

Hey Scott Brosius, I noticed you conveniently ignored my case on you.

More votes on Scott plz.

[Alduskkel]

Also quite frankly I refuse to support either of the two top lynch candidates. Shotty isn't logical, but that's not scummy. Policy lynch is kind of bleh right now. And DemonHybrid just doesn't strike me as scummy.

If we end up in a No Lynch, no big deal, in 12p setups we'd probably have to No Lynch eventually anyway.

I think vollkan really needs to vote because I have no idea who he suspects.

[Alduskkel]

Which is funny because then you go on to say, when asked to explain why he was scummy:

My ISO 7 is my entire case. To sum it up: He was a lurker and he was buddying up to me, hard. Both things I found scummy, so I voted him for it.

Which is flat-out contradictory.

HD+3

You can't simultaneously back away from the silly argument that lurking was scummy and also accuse him of being scum for lurking.

All I said was that I had done things like that before, and it wasn't the only reason I though he was scummy for.

You're going to have to elaborate here, because I don't see how you're actually answering the question -- how can you say that Espeonage was just lurking for non-strategy reasons, but then turn around and say that he's scummy for lurking?

And just let me quote your ISO7:

Esp, you need to start producing some content. Like now. After a scan at your ISO, you say absolutely nothing until ISO 5, in which you vaguely commented that you have meta on people. After that, there's nothing until ISO 9, where you say not to get off of Zach because he "Isn't looking good". Really? You should know by now that you have to give reasons for your reads, rather than just randomly commenting on people. You're almost worse than Dramonic.

ISO 11 is the first time you seem to really suspect someone... No, you didn't vote. You FoS'd for a scummy tone.

Then ISO 13-17 was your back and forth with DH. Hmm... In the 40 minutes that you were bickering, you probably could have read part of the thread and *gasp* provided some content!

And NOW I remember the game that we were in together... Newbie 910. Take a look at my ISO there, please. How is my play there ANYTHING like it is now? You said in your ISO 9 that the meta from there is similar to how I'm playing now. Explain the correlation, now. And you also asked the games that I've played in since then to see if the meta had still applied. That was my first game ever on the site... I've since completed 4 or 5. Why not look at those and compare me that way?

Screw this... Zach can wait. (Although I would still like him to respond to my points, instead of ignoring them)

Unvote, Vote Espeonage

diescumdie

The vast bulk of that is attacking his lurking.

I'd say it's close to 50/50 personally, but you can believe what you want I guess...

Now you're just nitpicking.

On the buddying itself:

He tried to say I was town based off of meta reasons, and when you look you notice that there's no way you can do that based off of the meta he gave. How is that not buddying? And I didn't directly call out the word buddying, but it was definitely implied.

This is BS.

HD+2

You're seriously contemplating that scum-Espy would, out of a desire to buddy you, deliberately concoct a false meta for you. A simple maxim all too often forgotten:

Cockup before conspiracy

.

First of all, it's not BS. Would it be so hard to believe that he would false meta me to try and get me on his side? (BTW, look at the game linked... my play there is NOTHING like it is now).

It's a bit of a stretch. Why should Espeonage bother, when it's so much easier to buddy up to someone by agreeing with them?

With these points in mind, I could get behind a horrordude lynch.

Another quick list of lurkers (no particular order):
drmyshottyizsik (the usual lack of content, not as bad as normal though)
Maemuki (not a whole lot of scum hunting, all I really see is a suspicion on horrordude; a bit bandwagony)
Scott Brosius (voting on policy, doesn't post much content; has yet to respond to my case on him)
Socrates (started strong, petered out in the last week or so... his recent vote on horrordude is out of the blue and kind of bandwagony)

Of course I know that my horrordude suspicions are somewhat out of the blue too. I wouldn't call any of the above really scummy (except Scott Brosius) but having a list of them makes sure we don't forget them.

[Alduskkel]

Vote: Scott Brosius

.

I'll probably skim the game tomorrow and look for connections. Iso horrordude, too. Maemuki case looks good, but I'd prefer to iso her myself.

Unless drmyshottyizsik really was drunk (he's 16, I'm a bit skeptical) then I think he's deliberately playing dumb. Or at least, I hope so. Maybe he has just seen a few too many vengefuls?

[Alduskkel]

I won't go over every last thing, but some things stand out:

Esp, you need to start producing some content. Like now. After a scan at your ISO, you say absolutely nothing until ISO 5, in which you vaguely commented that you have meta on people.

Seems a lot like coaching.

HD does continue to get on Espeonage's case for being a lurker but not much comes out of it.

Reckamonic accuses horrordude of buddying in 265.

Espeonage, Zach, and Reckamonic are scum so far.

Important statement in 274 by HD.
-Espeonage for lurking.
-Zach for a variety of reasons which resulted in mutual quote walls. Reread it yourself if you need to... this post would be far too long if I got into it. Suffice it to say that Zach doesn't seem like a likely scum partner.
-Reckamonic for "misrepping" and a lack of reasons for reads I guess.

Maemuki suspects Reckamonic and horrordude in 282,

chooses Reckamonic over horrordude

.
-Reckamonic: Just for not giving reasons.
-horrordude: Says his case on Zach doesn't make sense, and wonders why he is voting for Espeonage when he's going after Zach. Accusation of bandwagoning too? Here:

Is it just beacuse [Espeonage] has more votes = more chance of getting lynched?

All in all I would have expected Maemuki to vote horrordude.

Maemuki backs down from horrordude in 314 after his explanation in 301. I don't actually have a problem with this, horrordude's response was legitimate here.

344 - horrordude maintains his vote on Espeonage, who is now DMSIS. Later, HD fails to explain why he found Espeonage scummy since his reasons were lurking (which Espeonage was not doing as a strategy) and buddying (which was a huge stretch as noted in earlier posts).

380 - vollkan builds up a good case on HD... then votes for DH. Based off of a possible no lynch since HD had only one vote at the time. Maintains that if HD were to accumulate more votes, then he'd switch.

381: Reckamonic argues with HD fairly strongly. vollkan promptly switches to HD when Reckamonic says he'd consider an HD lynch too.

385: Socrates switches to HD at a critical moment which puts HD up for a lynch, tied with DMSIS. q21 quickly follows, we know he's town now obv.

390: Maemuki unvotes Reckamonic, says she's leaning HD. She eventually ends Day 1 still not voting.

396: DH gets on the HD wagon. If q21's vote wasn't the thing that really put HD in the forefront, DH's vote here is which puts HD 2 or 3 (too lazy to check) votes past DMSIS.

399: Reckamonic gets on the HD wagon.

q21 then proceeds to say he doesn't want a claim, and this seems like a breadcrumb in retrospect:

Because game wise its better to have the full compliment of players commit to the lynch rather than have the mod do it for you. Even if the last vote is due to the looming deadline, its still more useful than the

cop

-out that is a mod completed lynch.

Might have got him killed.
---
So, that brings everything up to speed. Scott Brosius is doing the crap that I've been pointing out all along, and surprise surprise he is finally getting some votes. Maemuki is not doing anything. Still prefer Scott to Maemuki, but the HD-Mae connection is definitely there.

@DemonHybrid: While I agree that we shouldn't forget Maemuki's scumtells if she is replaced, I don't think it's a big deal if she is.

Frankly this day has just begun and wanting to end it so soon... well.

[Alduskkel]

Unvote

.

Sorry I only remembered one game with Scott. And I guess I was scum. But like I said I didn't really remember them. Also I said I think not I was. I didn't lie I just didn't take the time to go back and defend my past meta.

You said you were "pretty sure." That does not imply that you "don't really remember them." Also where did you say the word "think" in that context? Also you did lie. You stated something that was false - i.e., a lie.

Deadline is absurdly short and so

Vote: drmyshottyizsik

.

Socrates bugs me too, what has he done lately? He has become a big lurker. Unfortunately though our other two big lurkers turned out to be Masons *headdesk*

[Alduskkel]

Absolutely make it longer. 2 weeks per day sounds good to me, just in general for all days.

Also, Maemuki is officially a jerk if she's going to pick up a prod but not post.

Also DMSIS you didn't respond to my post.

[Alduskkel]

How is you lying WIFOM? How is you saying one thing and then claiming you meant something else WIFOM?

[Alduskkel]

ROFL. I have every right to use what you said against you. That's Mafia, right there.

I think you are unclear on the definition of WIFOM, but that's relatively unimportant. I have seen the Princess Bride (good movie).

[Alduskkel]

So your defense, shotty, is that you didn't remember those games. Yet, you stated that you were "pretty sure." Those two things don't add up with each other. You can't not remember it well but also be pretty sure that you remember it.

Just saying that I played one game with scott, and I'm pretty sure i was town

You don't sound unsure here.

[Alduskkel]

@Mod: Deadline is incorrect.

fixed, ty.

Socrates needs to explain his vote.

Not a whole lot to say because not a whole lot has been said.

[Alduskkel]

vollkan, what is your response to Zach's 494? Why do you think he is wrong there?

[Alduskkel]

DMSIS is pretty much the most bizarre player I've ever seen... to put it nicely.

So, um, you think vollkan is either super town or super scum? I'm having trouble wrapping my mind around that. I mean, just look at the post two above.
-"ofers great insight"
-"is IMO town"
-"scum hunts really well"
-"asks all of the right questions"

How can you possibly think of vollkan as at all scummy while simultaneously using those phrases and others to describe him?

DemonHybrid's wasp/poison metaphor is surprisingly appropriate. You simply cannot get your reads, your cases, or your ideas about meta straight, DMSIS.

I mean, iso #6 doesn't read like "Zachrulez is scum because I have a gut scum read on him." It's an explanation. Not a good one, but an explanation nonetheless. But then you later say you can't explain your case on him.

Yeah, most or all of this has been said already, but I figured I'd say it anyway as a long "I agree" kind of post.

And shotty, do you have memory problems?

[Alduskkel]

Does anyone here think that the case on shotty hasn't been clear aside from shotty?
Am I the only one who think that shotty's recent posts are a huge appeal to emotion? (getting angry and trying to look like frustrated town)

[Alduskkel]

@vollkan: Answer my other question, please. Also some of your quote tags are messed up, so it's a bit confusing.

@Reckamonic: Why aren't you voting?

[Alduskkel]

Did a write-as-you-read thing, so most of this post was written before I saw the shotty flip.

To everyone:
Why can we afford to keep shotty around? Why can't we?
why are you/are you not voting for shotty?

1. Well, I guess we can afford to keep him around. He isn't an auto-lose for us if he's Town. Thing is, I don't think he's Town though.
2. Why am I voting shotty? Well, pretty much because of what people like Zach and DemonHybrid have said. He's lied about meta, he's inconsistent with his reads, and he tried to cast suspicion on masons. There's the thing vollkan gave him a +3 for, and there's the fact that one moment he explains his case on Zach and then the next he says it's gut and he can't explain it.

Also, shotty is hilarious but he also pisses me off.

Because he promises to make this his number one game now that open 236 has ended

I WAS IN THAT GAME TOO. And it ended before this one started! This game should have been your number one game from the beginning because of that. At least, there's no reason this game should suddenly start being your number one game.

This DMSIS wagon is still horrible. He's town. He's not even TRYING to make sense, he's just being stupid. That is not a scumtell. AT ALL.

Zachrulez and vollkan (to name a couple) have pointed out why what shotty does IS scummy. Why do you disagree with them?

Yep, I thought Zach was scum. Yep, I feel Zach is most town now. His play has gotten 200% better, horrordude went crazy on him without expressing ANY other suspicions. I don't think HD is good enough scum to bus a friend that hard.

Actually, I'd consider attacking someone without good reason to be a bussing-tell. This stems from the fact that scum know who the other scum are -- thus, they may find their scumbuddies scummier than a town player would, simply because they know they're scum.

Zach

, your post 550 suggests that Untrod Tripod is at least slightly scummy to you, yet you also insinuate you have a null read on him. Clarify?

At that point, I didn't have a reliable read on him. The way he seemed to post to seem unreadable seemed a bit suspect to me, however in the subsequent pages, he's taken a pretty clear stance on Shotty, and my issues re: difficulty getting a read on him have been alleviated. (He's actively after and responding to Shotty, up to that point his stances and positions had been pretty passive.) I'm leaning town on him now.

You know, just because UT agrees with you doesn't mean he's Town.

vollkan suspicions are BS right now. A lot of them are just based off the assumption that DMSIS is scum. While I agree that that is probably true, trying to make scum connections between two players who are both of unknown alignment is jumping the gun.

Of course DMSIS being scum would make vollkan look worse. But are there other players who could still be scum after that? Of course. I actually wouldn't be surprised if scum decided to bus shotty. I bet he would piss off even his scum partner, and with the Cop gone you really don't need safety in numbers that much.

In other news, Socrates' lurking is REALLY starting to bother me.

Also, I took a look at Shotty's iso 35 and in that post he analyzes everyone but socrates.

Interesting point... I'll keep that in mind if/when shotty or Socrates dies.

And by "have a good case", I really mean "have fucking forgotten that reads can change".

What the hell DH!? That is one of your main reasons for calling me scum! Because I'm wishy washy! Eat your own words and go die.

unvote
vote DH

Wishy-washiness and changing your mind are similar but separate things.

Distinguishing them is part of being a good scum hunter. Key thing is, ask yourself these questions:
Is it opportunistic?
Does it aid scum?
Does it occur quickly without much explanation?

DemonHybrid's shift is from a scum read to a town read -- not very opportunistic. Nor does it seem to aid scum, unless Zachrulez happens to be scum. Finally, DemonHybrid's opinion change has been over the course of this game, and his progression makes sense. So, it's not a scum tell.

I agree with vollkan in the exchange that started at about #721. It's just a theory disagreement though, so neither of them are more or less scummy for it.

drmyshottyizsik, Vanilla Townie, has been modkilled and made neutral survivor.

shotty, don't take this personally (I am not insulting you as a person), but your play style is the worst play style I have ever seen, and I have played with zwetschenwasser and Mastin. Multiple times.

Go back to newbie games, and come back a better player. It's not impossible.

We should take a good look at the wagon and try to figure out everyone's view of shotty. People finding him too town should be looked at (since they know he's town).

Alright, what the hell DemonHybrid? We should take an extra careful look at the people who were right about DMSIS? Bullshit. If anything we should look at the people who were pushing a mislynch -- including me.

That's not to say we shouldn't look at those people at all, but singling them out is just wrong.
---
Well, with DMSIS flipping town it's time to head back to the drawing board. I'm curious as to whether or not Socrates will need replacing, or if he'll come back. And if he does, what will he say?

[Alduskkel]

vollkan's ahead of me on the whole "no one said shotty was obvtown" thing.

They both had good reasons going at each other. HD just attacked Zach without any other scumreads. There's absolutely no benefit to attacking one scum buddy without giving at least a secondary scum read.

A good scum player would completely disregard my statement and play full force against his teammate without suspecting anyone else, but I don't think HD is that good of a scum player.

Scum players can find all the flaws in their teammates posts if they want. Also, "There's absolutely no benefit to attacking one scum buddy without giving at least a secondary scum read."? I disagree. If two scum players attack each other, ONE OF THEM is going to get town cred out of that (probably). Then you go on to say that if HD was good scum then he wouldn't do all that, he would do... what he did in game? Meh. HD was not what I would call terrible scum player. At least, not bad enough that I wouldn't put it past him to do something like that. Especially if he thought it would save him, who you might recall was the Godfather.

[Alduskkel]

Scum players can find all the flaws in their teammates posts if they want. Also, "There's absolutely no benefit to attacking one scum buddy without giving at least a secondary scum read."? I disagree. If two scum players attack each other, ONE OF THEM is going to get town cred out of that (probably). Then you go on to say that if HD was good scum then he wouldn't do all that, he would do... what he did in game? Meh. HD was not what I would call terrible scum player. At least, not bad enough that I wouldn't put it past him to do something like that. Especially if he thought it would save him, who you might recall was the Godfather.

I mean, maybe so, but go check out the last half of Day 1. I never said HD was a bad scum player, I said he's probably not ballsy enough or crafty enough to argue with his partner 100% and not give other suspicions. Mafia's about probabilities. To me, it's just more probable that he'd end the day with some other suspicions instead of tunneling Zach.

This is exactly why bussing works, you know. And HD's case on Zach really was BS, which opens up some possibilities:
1. HD was trying to get Town-Zach mislynched but wasn't doing it well.
2. HD was trying to bus Scum-Zach but couldn't come up with a good case.
3. HD was trying to bus Scum-Zach but came up with a bad case so that Zach wouldn't actually get lynched.

Obviously #1 is more likely but the other two are not to be disregarded.

But this is pointless theory discussion.

I'd like to point out to Reckamonic that if DH broke rule 5 then you can't ignore the fact that DMSIS broke rule 1.

[Alduskkel]

Calling people scum for having correct reads is just bad play. Obviously the people who thought DMSIS were better players in this case, and it certainly doesn't mean that they must have had some inside information.

Also, how much they said DMSIS was town is being overstated. Most of all the "defense" of DMSIS was just that his actions were normal and thus null. Most of the overstating is being done by DH.

I'm noticing a distinct lack of analysis of players who

were

pushing for DMSIS's mislynch by DH and UT. Selective targeting, much?

All that said I also feel that vollkan is downplaying how much Reckamonic said DMSIS was town. Sure, one word in one post seems small, but it represents an entire read on one player.

Socrates accusations with regards to lurking are crap because Socrates is being replaced.

Mod: Prod Scott Brosius.

I would like to additionally request that simply saying "I'm here." should not count as responding to the prod. SB needs to post some damn content, especially because he is highly likely to be town.

[Alduskkel]

I don't claim that I should be specially treated with regards to the shotty wagon. However, I don't think the people who said he was town/null should be specially treated either! Please stop misrepresenting what I've said.

[Alduskkel]

The content.

And yes, that would be a shame, but that's clear and legitimate AtE when a good case was presented against her. Lets lynch her and get it over with and not dick around with a replacement.

Soc is also a good lynch too, but I want his replacement to start speaking. That is, if he ever gets replaced.

I'm having trouble reconciling these two different stances. On the one hand, you don't want to wait for a replacement for a player you think is scum. On the other hand, you do.

Why the change?

[Alduskkel]

How DH doesn't have a big wagon is completely unbeknownst to us:
- He wanted to lynch claimed masons
- He actively pursued an easy lynch on a VI
- Instead of attacking the wagon-pushers, he attacked the people who

tried to stop the wagon

If someone could point out any pro-town motivation in any of the above, we'd love to hear it.

1. Yeah, that's scummy.
2. Shotty

was

scummy, though some (mainly vollkan and you) would disagree.
3. That's DH being wrong, not DH being scummy.

Vollkan is tunneling me;

Disagree. I haven't seen him adding points to you much if at all.

And yes, [Reckamonic] 100% implied that shotty was town, because if he's "not scummy", then what the fuck is he?

Null. Are you even thinking this through?

Funny, I CTRL+F'd and searched for "null" and "neutral", and couldn't find anything.

Newsflash: Declaring null reads doesn't require the usage of the word "null" or "neutral".

Also for curiosity sake... Vollkan, where was Shotty in your points system relative to everyone else at the time of his mod kill?

I'd say around 53. I'd allocated him more points than that, but as I indicated a few times, I'd become less and less confident in my scumtells against him as it became more and more obvious that he was a moron.

I don't like this. vollkan, your system is supposed to be transparent, you can't take off points without telling us. So here's my question: Why didn't you tell us?

Anyway, I'D LIKE TO DRAW EVERYONE'S ATTENTION BACK TO THIS.

Where Untrod makes a horrible accusation about Ald trying to distance himself from the Shotty wagon, even though no such thing was actually happening.

Why is it horrible? DH had some suspicion on him, and it's pretty easy to flip the wagon back onto the person who was pushing it when someone flips town. Just because Ald said "I guess we should look at me too" doesn't mean he isn't trying to flip suspicion onto DH and me.

My

whole point

is that the people on the wagon should be scrutinized just as much as the people off the wagon. I am not trying to shift suspicion onto any particular person just because they were for/against the DMSIS lynch. If you think I was ever saying anything else, then you are mistaken.

We would put good money on the final scums being somewhere within DH, UT, and Socrates.

How interesting. Your top suspects are... the guy you've been yelling at all game, the guy who said you were likely scum, and the guy I said was likely scum if you weren't.

This is just slanderous. Instead of suggesting that Reckamonic is scummy for thinking those people are scum, why don't you examine his reasons better and tear them down, and explain why he is not just wrong but also scummy? Instead you are just lobbing mud at him.

FoS: Untrod Tripod

.

Disputing the Mason claim is dumb dumb dumb. I really don't see the Masons both making it out the next Night, because frankly it's obvious that Masons in an endgame are deadly to Mafia. I guess Mafia could think the town would be idiotic and lynch their own Masons, but I highly doubt it.

This game is really slow because we're missing 3 players: Nobody Special (I know he'll post eventually, for now he is not), Socrates, and Scott Brosius.

[Alduskkel]

Al, seriously, do you even read what I wrote? I know I addressed each one of those points.

Well, give me a post number at least. I don't see it.

How is that slanderous? Are you implying that my interpretations of his selected scumchoices are inaccurate? If not, then I'm not sure how that's slanderous at all.

My point is that you're not addressing why his scumchoices are themselves scummy, just giving a possible scenario where you are already assuming that Reckamonic is scum.

I said the claim doesn't 100% clear them, not that I think they're scum. I'm not "disputing the mason claim", I'm saying they're 95% cleared instead of 100% cleared.

Then we agree.

It’s an awfully walking-on-eggshells way to approach it. There’s nothing wrong with just asking, “You think Soc is scum?” But instead it’s the odd question, “Would you agree that you’ve already said you think Socrates is scum?” The two interpretations that spring to mind are either scum leading on their buddy, or Aldus trying to push a wagon without looking like he’s pushing. His failure to remember who he was even voting for would seem to discount the second option.

I was simply asking for a clarification of his usage of the phrase.

His following posts only confirm my bad vibes. After all of his earlier lecturing on "is this a policy lynch? Who do you think is scummy?", he votes because "Maybe (this) will help back up your reads." A vote that doesn’t actually say much, on a target that (presuming Reckamonic is really being as much of a VI as claimed) won’t garner much sympathy, with careful foreshadowing before it’s cast – damn, that smells like a scum vote to me.

Hmm. Well, I can't prove that this was my intention, but it was partly a pressure vote to encourage Reckamonic to become less VI-ish. Reread my ISO 30, that will tell you the other part: I didn't think he was working towards a Town win condition.

His next vote is for Scott Brosius in ISO 32.. Confusingly, it’s a post that briefly mentions Scott, then focuses on attacking shotty, then ends with a Scott vote?

You're completely misinterpreting that post. It is not an attack on shotty. It is a questioning of shotty.

Even more confusingly, in his next post, Aldus writes:

Hey Scott Brosius, I noticed you conveniently ignored my case on you.

More votes on Scott plz.

Even though in his previous post, his only Scott “case” was:

I really haven't seen much scum hunting from you, Scott (except maybe for iso #8). Also, calling people scummy for lurking (i.e. Espeonage) is pretty hypocritical. Have you seen your posts and # of posts?

I wouldn’t respond to that post either. It’s not a “case”. You respond to claims of poor activity by posting more, not defending that you’re actually really active.

His failure to even acknowledge my accusations is what irked me.

The second part of hitogoroshi's case I will address with this. Added bonus to reading it? Scum meta on Nikanor and a town meta on Reckoner.

I told you all that I was doubting the points I had assigned him. I just never formally reassigned them because it was an ongoing issue rather than an immediate negation of his points

I would suggest a slow degradation of points then, to better indicate your changing opinion.

I do not have to go into why Nikanor's posting so far is terrible. That link I posted up there could be very useful with him, too. I haven't yet seen enough of his play here yet to judge if it matches his scum meta.

[Alduskkel]

I just finished page six. This game makes me want to take a stroll in a cemetery at night on Halloween with lots of ghouls to eat me alive.
Anyway, here's where I'm at right now, for reference:
Alduskkel - Neutralish, leaning town. I'll read hito's case once I get there and see what that does for me.
DemonHybrid - Scum
Reckamonic - Probtown
hitogoroshi (replaced Socrates) - Leaning town
Untrod Tripod - Leaning town
vollkan - Leaning scum
Zachrulez - Obvtown

This feels familiar: how about you back up your reads?

The first thing I really feel I can pick up and run with is [DemonHybrid's] post 47. Specifically, this line:

By the way, until you link examples of why you think Zach is town, I'll assume that it's buddying, because, once again, there's absolutely no reasoning to back it.

What the hell is this? You asked Reckamonic questions, they were answered. Then you call him out for not providing REASONING? Not everything is a case. It's polite to answer questions, but it's completely, stupidly unrealistic to expect someone to write a "case" regarding every thought they express. A good rule of thumb is that if you ask a question, you should expect as much effort from the answer as it took you to write the question. Assuming it's buddying because he didn't try to convince YOU of his town read is comical.

Do you call this reasoning from Reckamonic?

Zach is town because his posts exhume a feel of genuine town incredulity, like literally all of them. Best way to explain

His post 101 is a power role suggestion/hint. If he claims a PR, this'll make it feel more legit. If he claims VT, this is a little scummy, because it's hinting at a PR for no reason.

I think that unless it breaks the game, claiming benefits scum regardless of the claim. The only reason we do it is to prevent lynching PRs, since that's even worse.

It's clear from your attitudes that I'm not going to get through to you guys, so do what you want. I'll try to answer hito without having a brain aneurysm.

The fact that you're even mentioning how much I'm posting is fucking bullshit and a misrep. The amount someone posts

is

a

complete

NULL TELL.

Extremely active early game. Too active. Now, to be clear, I don't mean too active as in "scummy", too active as in "anti-town." There's a subtle distinction, that being that it's a null tell (actually a weak town tell, in my experience.) It's obvious that posting content = good, and it's all too easy to fall into the trap of posting more content = better. That's not true, though. First off, there's diminishing marginal utility of more posts from someone. An easy way to think about it is, if you make one post a week, that will have whatever you think was most important for that week. If you have two posts, it will be the two most important things, etc. If you're posting sixty times in a week, say, it's very likely that a lot of that is garbage. In addition, players post less when they're feeling overwhelmed, and that is bad for the game as a whole. Still, I've yet to find a single scum player that will do this deliberately to achieve this effect on the town. Townies do it because they think it's the right thing, and scum do it because they think it would be the right thing if they were town.

So you guys agree. Why, then, do you want to make it seem like hitogoroshi is saying you're scum for posting a lot, DemonHybrid?

Another word, to hitogoroshi: While I agree that scum partners will ignore each other (this is actually something I do a lot) I have yet to see this proven as a scum tell. Proven in that, you take a reasonable sample size of games and look at how scum partners interact and categorize it by "buddies," "bussing," "null but respond to each other," and "ignore." Fact of the matter is that scum have potential motivations to do any of the 4, depending on the situation. So I'm not seeing the bussing link between DH and HD.

Nothing to do with the amount you [DemonHybrid] post? I'm saying that LAL is an objective lynch mechanic (post count is a number) and it's an objective lynch mechanic that won't hit you. I'm not saying that only active scum bring up LAL, but I'm saying that every active scum would like to bring up LAL. This has everything to you with the amount you post and I'm kinda confused as to what you're calling a "misrep" here.

I think you're forgetting the fact that lurkers are just plain scummy. Suspecting them can hardly be a scum tell. I agree, there is a Scum motivation there. But I don't see how it is any more likely than the Town motivation.

This isn't always true, but more often than not, a three person scum list from a confirmed scum will have two townies and one scumbuddy on it.

"more often than not" -- what's your source for that phrase? I've seen this theory before. I don't consider it reliable.

I don't believe in towntells.

Then what do you call this?

Reck+3, Zach-2

The Zach attacks from Horror have none of the telltale signs of bussing, and it also doesn't fit with the standard scum pattern of Vote: Townie, FoS: Buddy for Zach to be scum. So, this increases the likelihood of Reck being scum and reduces Zach's

If Zach-2 isn't saying that you've found a town tell, I don't know what is.

Also this quote seems relevant.

(It's also extremely rare for anybody to go below 50. I think the last time it happened was to shaft.ed in 2008)

I don't think vollkan ever established a voting threshold. DemonHybrid, you are remembering this:

In practice, I do find that I tend to rarely have people hitting 70 (which, if I were to put it into words, would be "I am ready to lynch you right now").

Of course this is not actually a voting threshold, since vollkan has voted but no one has reached 70.

DemonHybrid case is BS. Our masons are doing shit for content and not backing up anything. Hito's case is based off of bussing, which is also BS (see above). Reckamonic's case (based off of iso 45) is solved simply by the statement "Being wrong is not the same as being scummy."

Let's now track vollkan's points system as it pertains to DemonHybrid.
1. A hefty +4 in iso 2 for putting me at L-2.
2. -2 in iso 7 "for reasonable benefit of the doubt." This only halves the scum points from the previous addition, but if there's one thing I know about vollkan it's that if he thinks there is a scum motivation and a town motivation, then he calls it null. I'm seeing a double standard between how he treated drmyshottyizsik and DemonHybrid.
3. Iso 13. This is where it gets good. vollkan agrees with q21, saying DemonHybrid shouldn't call Reckamonic scummy for being inconsistent (because he gave reasons). He adds 3. The main thing here is that vollkan votes DemonHybrid, saying he is at 57. You could ask a 1st grader and they will tell you that 50+4-2+3 equals 55, not 57.
4. Iso 14. vollkan takes DemonHybrid's explanation, removes 3. Actual: 52. vollkan says: 54.
5. Iso 16. vollkan lists all of his scores. But he's changed it again! He's added +1 to DH's score for no apparent reason. He goes for his wagon because deadline is approaching and he doesn't want NL to happen. Funny, adding +1 conveniently puts him above DMSIS and Socrates.
6. Iso 34. Adds +3. Actual: 55. vollkan says: 58.
7. Iso 46. Adds +2. Actual: 57. vollkan says: 60.

57 is still very high. But the point of all this is that vollkan's system, his has been trotted out as incredibly transparent and pro-town, is actually inconsistent.

I'm still surprised vollkan didn't hammer me when he was on last night, seeing as how I'm above the "58" point threshhold, especially by 2 points on his cover up scheme...er, I mean points system. That means his points system is bullshit, especially when he takes away points without telling people, acts shady about it and doesn't hammer when the threshhold is met.

Beat me to the punch, apparently.


DemonHybrid, my presence in this game should be going up since my workload is decreasing.

Vote: vollkan

. Points inconsistency just cannot be ignored. It reeks of opportunistic scumdar shifting.

[Alduskkel]

If Zach-2 isn't saying that you've found a town tell, I don't know what is.

A scumtell is an action that is more likely to from scum than town. A "towntell" is the opposite (but I don't think they exist, for behavioural reasons that aren't relevant here)

The point that I gave Zach a - for was neither. Instead, it was simply a process of logical elimination:

1) Espy's use of a three person list has a strong likelihood of containing another scum.
2) Shotty was town
3) Espy's attack on Zach did not look like bussing

Accordingly, those two combined create an objectively greater likelihood of Zach.

Espy? I don't think we were talking about Espeonage. Anyway I don't buy the theory that a list of three (3) will likely contain one (1) scum.

3. Iso 13. This is where it gets good. vollkan agrees with q21, saying DemonHybrid shouldn't call Reckamonic scummy for being inconsistent (because he gave reasons). He adds 3. The main thing here is that vollkan votes DemonHybrid, saying he is at 57. You could ask a 1st grader and they will tell you that 50+4-2+3 equals 55, not 57.

And it couldn't be a typo?

My point here is that your points system is supposed to be transparent, but it's skewed with regards to DemonHybrid. It could be a typo, but I have to wonder how you would make that typo.

4. Iso 14. vollkan takes DemonHybrid's explanation, removes 3. Actual: 52. vollkan says: 54.

I didn't say he was at 54 in that post.

Which is why it wasn't structured as an actual quote. But if you had said what his points were, then, judging by your previous posts you

would

have said that it was 54.

5. Iso 16. vollkan lists all of his scores. But he's changed it again! He's added +1 to DH's score for no apparent reason. He goes for his wagon because deadline is approaching and he doesn't want NL to happen. Funny, adding +1 conveniently puts him above DMSIS and Socrates.

It's pretty obvious what's happened there: 50+4-2+3 = 55. I'd just forgotten to take off the -3

And I know how that happened. For the first few + scores, I tallied my points by scrolling down the page. Doing so, I picked up the -2. I then proceeded to use Ctrl+F and searched for +, on the assumption (usually correct) that there weren't - points, and I added everybody's up.

Well first of all that doesn't explain the random +1. Also, you're saying that you found one -2, but then for some reason figured that there were no other - points? Why would you make that assumption as Town? You said you've done this points system before, I wouldn't expect you to have trouble handling it.

57 is still very high. But the point of all this is that vollkan's system, his has been trotted out as incredibly transparent and pro-town, is actually inconsistent.

It's not "inconsistent". What you mean is that the numbers don't match.

Same thing. It's inconsistent with what it should actually be.

Alduskkel trying to start another wagon on deadline day is a little fucking ridiculous, though.

Poor timing, I know, but up until now I've been pretty short on free time. Also I forgot when the deadline was.

I've seen it "proven" as a scum tell. Not all people who are scum blindly ignore each other, of course, but most people who blindly ignore each other are scum. (Or masons, but that's obviously not the case here.) Sure, it's not 100%, but it's a fairly strong one.

[citation needed]

[Alduskkel]

Meh, guess that makes sense. Point 1 is debatable, but that's a detail, because we're lynching scum today in DH. Someone needs to hammer before we no lynch and then we will raaaaaaaaage.

Deadline rules say that DemonHybrid will almost certainly be lynched today.

[Alduskkel]

Interesting conundrum here. Since DemonHybrid is 3 points lower on vollkan's scale than he was earlier, he's tied with hitogoroshi at 57. I'm curious what vollkan's justification will be for choosing one over the other will be, if indeed he does choose.

[Alduskkel]

What's the most recent non-ongoing game where you've used your points system, vollkan?

[Alduskkel]

Meh. Scum could be PR heavy, e.g. a Roleblocker and/or a Role Cop to name some common ones. So a mass claim that revealed, say, a Doctor, would just indicate that either the Masons or the Doctor are lying, the Mafia is PR heavy, or the setup is unbalanced. In other words, it wouldn't prove anything.

vollkan meta basically clears him of my suspicions. In 2 games he subtracted points only once, so obviously it is not common for him to do it.

I will plan on ISOing the living players, possibly skipping the claimed Masons.

[Alduskkel]

Popping in one last time (until the game ends, I guess) to say that vollkan is right in the above post.

Sorry for replacing out. I just didn't have time for this game anymore.

[Alduskkel]

Weird game. Very PR heavy, so I'm not sure it was imbalanced.

Regardless, I would have LOVED to stay in this game (partly because this is the only non-marathon game where I've ever rolled SK) and I sincerely apologize for replacing out. But I simply didn't have the time to do more than a half-assed effort. I was considering replacing back in when I saw how long it was taking to find a replacement for me but whatever.

q21 was a VERY deliberate cop kill that I am happy with myself for doing. IMO q21 was an obvious cop. Not only did he not want a role claim (fearing a cop claim) but he also used the word investigate.

[Alduskkel]

Oh wait, I misremembered. He said "cop-out" in iso28.

Seriously, if you're the Cop, never use the word cop or investigate unless you really have to. Easily caught breadcrumb right there.