Mini 1021: Battousai's Mountaintnous Mountain Mafia (Over)

[tomorrow wendy]

I didn't like how havingfitz played along with iamausername's claim thingy early in the game.
I like the posts by Leech and Loud Mouth Lee.
havingfitz voted for me.

unvote, vote: havingfitz

[tomorrow wendy]

btw, I did read this game, but my eyes glazed over by page 7. I understand that I am supposed to post about once a day.

he wrote

I have never even heard of mountainous games or knew they meant something with respect to the type of game set up. I just thought it was the mod's name for the game.

when way earlier he wrote

VOTE: iamausername for rolefishing.

Seriously...did you expect any town PRs to reveal themselves? Though I do support scum claims. You first?

IDK about this.

seems fishy.

[tomorrow wendy]

@Xite...how am I looking scummier by the day?

Read your posts as if they're not yours, then you might understand.

Whoo-hoo another noob I get to mess with!!!

I didn't like how havingfitz played along with iamausername's claim thingy early in the game.
I like the posts by Leech and Loud Mouth Lee.
havingfitz voted for me.

unvote, vote: havingfitz

Interesting...

Unvote, Vote Wendy

btw, I did read this game, but my eyes glazed over by page 7. I understand that I am supposed to post about once a day.

he wrote

I have never even heard of mountainous games or knew they meant something with respect to the type of game set up. I just thought it was the mod's name for the game.

when way earlier he wrote

VOTE: iamausername for rolefishing.

Seriously...did you expect any town PRs to reveal themselves? Though I do support scum claims. You first?

IDK about this.

seems fishy.

How does that seem fishy? They actually

support

each other as posts.

he also wrote

VOTE: iamausername for rolefishing.

Seriously...did you expect any town PRs to reveal themselves? Though I do support scum claims. You first?

You're funny. Do you even read mod-posts?

Apparently as well as iamausername

he didn't directly deny knowing the roles. In one case he is flippant, and in the other he denies know what "mountainous" is rather than simply stating that he didn't know the roles in this game.

in your experience, don't liars generally prefer saying half-truths or talking evasions like flippancy over stating obvert lies?

iamausername's post asking for a massclaim was direct enough in specifying this specific setup that I looked at the mod's first post again to make sure that I didn't miss anything. If h.fitz as town thought that this was a normal closed game in little italy then as town shouldn't he have been curious about why iamausername thought this game was different? It seems to me that h.fitz was a scum typing out what he thought would look like a townie post without really thinking like a townie.

[tomorrow wendy]

Second, maybe he just didn't think about it? Yes, he seems scummy, but not based off of a null tell.

could this be an example of "buddying up"?
you're making a general excuse for him.
by "maybe he just didn't think about it" you mean that he didn't think about what, exactly?

"he seems scummy, but not based off of a null tell"
makes very little sense to me. please elaborate on "he seems scummy, but not based off of a null tell" i don't understand

[tomorrow wendy]

nah, I think that it is a rather clear example of buddying up.

I didn't like how havingfitz played along with iamausername's claim thingy early in the game.

Why?

seems insincere to me

I like the posts by Leech and Loud Mouth Lee.

What do you like about them?

seems sincere to me

havingfitz voted for me.

I voted for dalt. What do you think of his play? What is you mafia experience?

he seems dumb. i've played beofre online, i've read games here.

unvote, vote: havingfitz

OMGUS

remind me, why was LAL enforcement a reason to try to lynch dalt but not a reason to lynch Nexus? Was it because your scum buddy was voting for Nexus and you didn't want to be on the same wagon?

Aside from me....once you have finished catching up, what other player or two are you suspicious of?

a certain person that has said that you were scummy more than a couple times without voting for you.

[tomorrow wendy]

calling scumteam of "Xite91 + havingfitz"

[tomorrow wendy]

1) obvious? no. scummy to my eyes.

2)yes. i am accusing you of being scum, and lying about not knowing the set-up. To me you post replying to iamausername seems to be written with the voice of a scum player impersonating town, playing along by pretending to not know the setup but to still try to stop the gambit by accusing the gambit author of being a rolefisher.

3)

It's not usually done, I know, but

I have reason to believe we should massclaim immediately in this particular game.

I'm really hoping I don't have to explain why.

bolded for duh

[tomorrow wendy]

By the way, this isn't an insult (I'd be much more harsh if it was) but is english your first language? I'm just curious

calling me a noob and ovnoob was insulting. now you are just trolling for information to discredit me, either language barrier or grammar or something. too transparent, sorry.

Nah, it really isn't. I was just trying to tell you, in a nice-ish way, that you're an idiot.

is totally insulting. do people where you live not defend personal honor. keyboard cowards annoy me.

do you attempt to undermine me to defend h.fitz?

I'm not voting him now because I'm more interested in you,

b.s. I'm brand new here. you've been calling him scummy for pages.

[tomorrow wendy]

paging h.litz

remind me, why was LAL enforcement a reason to try to lynch dalt but not a reason to lynch Nexus? Was it because your scum buddy was voting for Nexus and you didn't want to be on the same wagon?

did you miss this?

[tomorrow wendy]

Yes, those were insults,

FU2 buddy ;P

that question was genuine curiosity, and I wasn't planning on and I swear to you that I will not use the answer for any case made against you in this game, and if anyone else does, I will instantly jump their shit

if it can't be a part of a case, than it is not game relevant, no? dropping it like bad habit.

I was calling you scummy for jumping onto the guy with the most suspicion using a null tell. That

is

scummy

I also benefit from reading game knowing dalt's role PM. Hence my OMGUS vote on h.fitz.

I am honored, though, that you would put a quote of mine in your sig

sunlight is the best disinfectant

[tomorrow wendy]

(You can send a PM to Kmd, he knows me IRL )

This is against rules! Would get me killed! WTF, no tricks!

[tomorrow wendy]

I am not online continuously.

saw you posting elsewhere, decided to page you.

or maybe pick on newbies more,

not sporting. tacky.

Anyways, you're really jumpy... Why is that?

fleas

1. What do you think about the Lateralus / Nexus situation
2. Your current views on Korashk/LlamaFluff?
3. What do you think about the Lateralus / Xite situation?
4. Any other suspicians or alternates to who could be scum if fitz turns up town?

need to read more carefully, will do so with these in front of me.

With that being said, the opening post of any game has tons of information that the typical pro-town player NEEDS to be aware of. In this case, THE ENTIRE DAMN SETUP.

agreement. How can a person claim any sort of authority for compensation in this text-based forum game without having read and understood the first post by game moderator? In clear red letters he wrote that there were two scum and 10 townies, no power roles. Accusing iamausername of rolefishing seems fishy to me. Possibly h.fitz was trying to emulate a powerrole, possibly he was scum thinking that rolefishing would be something that he might be accused of later.

Most fishy thing in the game so far, definitely stood out to me.
somethign to consider. If h.fitz is telling the truth about not knowing that setup was open, is that ignorance more likely to be town or scum? Town with vanilla role pm would be looking for any clue as LML just said. Ignorant scum would know that he is on team of two in a twelve player game. Would he assume multiball game with two teams of two against a town of 8 with powerroles?

I have two models for h.fitz scum in my head right now: one is ignorant of the set up, the other was not. In the first case he thinks that there is a multiball game with PRs that need to be protected by town players, and he might need to claim PR later. In the second case, where he was not ignorant of the setup, perhaps he was worried that his partner might fall for iamausernames gambit.

My belief that Xite is likely to be scum if h.fitz is scum is based off of scum distancing without a vote.
Would like proof of hammer preference that Xite is claiming. If his preference is so strong, there should be plenty of precedent for it, no?

sory for being long with poor organization. Also want to read today, but have limited time.

[tomorrow wendy]

Yeah, that actually makes sense as a reason for finding fitz's first post scummy. I don't agree with it, but I can at least see where you're coming from.

calling scumteam of "Xite91 + havingfitz"

aaaaand you've lost me. It's really too early in the game to go calling scumteams IMO, even if you actually had a decent basis for it. And you don't.

sorry. Was trying to be a baller.

To me you post replying to iamausername seems to be written with the voice of a scum player impersonating town, playing along by pretending to not know the setup but to still try to stop the gambit by accusing the gambit author of being a rolefisher.

OK, that's way more of a stretch than the first quote. So you think that fitz not only knew the setup, but also realised what I was trying to achieve with my gambit and deliberately acted ignorant to shut it down? No offense to him, but I just don't think there's any basis to believe that he's sharp enough for that.

trying to rationalize gut is a tricky business. Was he looking out for his partner?

[tomorrow wendy]

Oh, and you seem to be looking for reasons to pair more than one person up to Fitz

really? where?

[tomorrow wendy]

No offense to him, but I just don't think there's any basis to believe that he's sharp enough for that.

I thought about this some more. Doesn't this game require the assumption of competence? I am familiar with Hanlon's razor

"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

" but in this asymmetric information game shouldn't giving out passes for incompetence give false reading of "town" when evaluating alignments?

[tomorrow wendy]

You seem to have a pretty "clear" read on me and Fitz without having read that carefully... hmmm

replacing an inactive player by being as active as possible should help balance the information inconsistency as presented so far.
I'm doing the best I can.

trying to be more careful, I only got two pages in. My PBPA analysis.
8 - iamausername calls for massclaim. Gives order for massclaim, claiming that random.org gave order. No proof of randomness given.
9 – Prana (first to claim on iamausername’s massclaim list) states that iamausername post was not a serious post. Does not claim. No evidence that he understood the setup from first post.
10 - dalt states that this is his first game, asks to be briefed on game stuff.
12 – iamausername reiterates that his massclaim request is serious
13 – LML demonstrates that he does understand first post game setup, but gives explaination that would prevent a possible scumpartner from falling for iamausername’s gambit. SCUMTELL
16 – LML claims vanilla townie.
20 – Saga accuses LML of being overdefensive. It stands out, but I’m not sure how to parse this.
22 – h.fitz demonstrates ignorance of setup, and understanding of LML’s prior two posts (I didn’t retain this during my intitial read). Accuses iamauser of rolefishing.
23 – Xite gives h.fitz ready made defense of “Do you even read mod-posts?”
24 – h.fitz does not deny reading mod post, glibly states “Apparently as well as iamausername ” so that his error will be associated with iamausername’s alleged failure to read the mod post.
25 – Korask offer vote count. Doesn’t like random voting (newbie tell?) Observes that “username didn't realize that this game was all vanilla, probably an innocent mistaske but I'm keeping my eye on him/her” without questionaing why imausername thought that a massclaim was a good idea. D1 massclaim is utterly against mafiascum.net site meta. Gets caught up in what I feel is nonsense LML “overdefensiveness” drama regarding random voting.
29 – Korask offers random vote for CA, offering proof of randomness

that doesn’t actually prove randomness.

(failed to notice this during initial read) SCUMTELL
31 – Korask offers votecount
32 – iamausername offers explaination for massclaim gambit. Gambit was spoiled by LML, in my opinion. I wish that I could point to someone that demonstrated awareness fo gambit and played along with it, because that would be a town-tell in my eyes.
33 – dalt incorrectly votes for sage. Fails to use proper formatting. If I didn’t know his alignment I would be suspicious of him pretending to be incompetant.
38 – commieB demonstrates failure to comprehend iamausername’s massclaim explaination as well as setup reveal in initial mod post. Claims that early claim of vanilla townie is not scummy, then claims vanilla townie.
40 – LML rationalizes vote for Prana, states that he got “something” on iamausername. What did you get on him LML? States that vote by Prana is scummy because it is third vote on wagon. Why is that scummy?
42-45 exchange between parana and sage that made my eyes glaze over. Did anyone else get anything out of it? I failed to parse it.
46 – LML accuses Saga of answering for someone (who?), coaching, asks for more votes on Prana.
47 – CA disagrees on third vote being scummy, but goes alogn with LML and votes for Prana in the interest of gettign a “healthy” bandwagon going.
48 – Prana unvotes LML, and states that his vote on LML was an insincere puch to get scum to vote for LML. Says that it didn’t work. Fails to state why he thinks that LML was town, or why his plan didn’t work.

[tomorrow wendy]

felt that my play while replacing in should be quick and loose to demonstrate a lack of guile.
No w I feel that I should read carefully and make solid well organized posts.
Expect more from me in a day or two when I've had a chance to put the time in. Next, fun in the sun for me, but first:

9 – Prana (first to claim on iamausername’s massclaim list) states that iamausername post was not a serious post. Does not claim. No evidence that he understood the setup from first post.

Exsqueeze me? No evidence that I understood the set-up? You mean beyond thinking iam was joking about claiming, thus quite obviously showing that I found it funny BECAUSE everyone would be going "I'm Vanilla, how's about you?" Nope, no evidence there, no siree.

if you understood, why didn't you claim vanilla? He followed up by stating that he was serious, and you still did not claim, or endorse his plan.

His gambit failed to catch scum due to your play. I assumed that you did not understand. To be clear: you knew the setup on page one? Why didn't you go along with the massclaim after iamausername stated that he was serious?

[tomorrow wendy]

unvote, vote: PranaDevil

[tomorrow wendy]

Almost everyone didn't claim vanilla. So why is Prana the only one you're questioning about this?

Prana was first to claim per the list, and declined to claim. He also stated that he understood the setup on page one, but decided to not go along with the gambit that he says he immediately understood.

[tomorrow wendy]

@Wendy: Why didn't you acknowledge the fact that Prana wasn't the one that "ruined" Iam's gambit after I pointed that out?

because I he wrote

It's not usually done, I know, but I have reason to believe we should massclaim immediately in this particular game. I'm really hoping I don't have to explain why.

Beautifully done. I had to stop for a moment before it clicked, at which point I had a good hearty laugh at that, purely because it made me stop and think. Even if you're scum I might keep you around if you keep the comedy up. .

unvote; vote: LoudmouthLee

Because I feel like a wagoning.

It's not usually done, I know, but I have reason to believe we should massclaim immediately in this particular game. I'm really hoping I don't have to explain why.

Beautifully done. I had to stop for a moment before it clicked, at which point I had a good hearty laugh at that, purely because it made me stop and think. Even if you're scum I might keep you around if you keep the comedy up. .

It wasn't a joke. I really believe that a massclaim is a viable strategy here, but the more it gets discussed beforehand, the less effective it is likely to be. Think about it.

Still quite happy with where my vote is currently lying.

and

His gambit failed to catch scum due to your play. I assumed that you did not understand. To be clear: you knew the setup on page one? Why didn't you go along with the massclaim after iamausername stated that he was serious?

No, sorry, his gambit "failed to catch scum" because I don't think it was a worthwhile gambit. Scum early on would play safe and claim vanilla. Which means unless scum were the last two to claim they would have to have been a complete dolt (dalt?) to make that mistake in a normal game, let alone a game like this where everything is staring you in the face.

where he states that he understood the setup and iamausername's massclaim gambit when he wrote post #8.

He was supposed to be the first to claim. He says that he understood the setup and the goal of the massclaim, and chose not to claim like he was supposed to because "Scum early on would play safe and claim vanilla" -- a contradiction, right? I think he is lying about it, and lying is a symptom of begin scum, right?

[tomorrow wendy]

so you didn't understand his gambit at post 8? then once he made his "It wasn't a joke" post at post 12 you did understand?

Why did you choose to not go along with it? Why didn't you claim?

[tomorrow wendy]

2 questions for everyone that didn't replace in:
at which post number in the thread did you understand that this setup was open, with 2 vanilla scum and 10 vanilla town?

at which post number in the thread did you understand that the goal of iamausername's post at post #8 was to catch scum claiming power roles?

[tomorrow wendy]

so you didn't understand his gambit at post 8? then once he made his "It wasn't a joke" post at post 12 you did understand?

Why did you choose to not go along with it? Why didn't you claim?

What the? Read what I'm saying, namely this:

"In fact I've never once said I understood the goal of it until he said what the goal was, so thanks for putting words in my mouth there."

He damned sure didn't say what the goal of it was in post 12. Please to be not putting words in my mouth any longer.

2 questions for everyone that didn't replace in:
at which post number in the thread did you understand that this setup was open, with 2 vanilla scum and 10 vanilla town?

When it was announced in the Sign Up thread, so before the game had even began.

at which post number in the thread did you understand that the goal of iamausername's post at post #8 was to catch scum claiming power roles?

Buggered if I know, and I'm not about to go check just because you wish to tunnel on me for some god awful reason. But here's a hint, it's a damned sight later than post 12.

so if you understood then what did you think that iamausername meant when you wrote "Beautifully done. I had to stop for a moment before it clicked, at which point I had a good hearty laugh at that, purely because it made me stop and think."

before

post 12?

like, what did you think was beautifully done?
what clicked?
what did you think his goal was?

[tomorrow wendy]

2 questions for everyone that didn't replace in:
at which post number in the thread did you understand that this setup was open, with 2 vanilla scum and 10 vanilla town?

at which post number in the thread did you understand that the goal of iamausername's post at post #8 was to catch scum claiming power roles?

What is the point of this?
I mean, aside from clogging the thread?
I see no benefits in these questions being answered by anyone because there is no way this can help us figure out who's town or scum, because anything coming off of this info would be a null tell IMHO

please cooperate. can't catch scum if I state goal of questioning prior to receiving answers.

I thought a JOKE was beautifully done. I wondered why he wanted us to claim and then realized "Ah, it's an all Vanilla claim, he's pissing about, clever".

So I thought his goal was to crack a joke in the RVS.

I felt I made that blindingly obvious at the time what with the "I had a good hearty laugh at that" line.

I still don't understand why you decided against claiming. What would it have hurt?

Why did you choose not to cooperate with a ploy that could catch scum, after he said that he was serious?

[tomorrow wendy]

k.

vote:tomorrow wendy

[tomorrow wendy]

nevermind, nolynch is better.

unvote, vote:nolynch

[tomorrow wendy]

you never seen it before LML, ever?

[tomorrow wendy]

i'm not scum with h.fitz. I never switched suspicion to LML. Mafia is dumb on this site.

[tomorrow wendy]

crap, sorry for the alt fail. Ironically, I was determined to take a lynch rather than out my alt.

at the risk of being accused to providing information over analysis, please enjoy

it will help get more information out of your reread, I promise.

[tomorrow wendy]

FWIW nolynch today is optimal for town. at some point we will have to get of of evens (NL @ 4 alive with 1 scum remain is really rough for town, and each day we wait until then yields a slight loss of expected win %)

Also, why the pic? trying to make more sense of it, but I just don't know

the numbers down the left side are the numbers for each post where a vote was made. the row of the top is each of the players, and the column under each name is who they voted for, and how many votes were on the wagon. the column on the right is the page number where each vote occurred.

[tomorrow wendy]

While I agree at some point we could do with a No Lynch to even out the numbers properly, I don't feel Day 1 is EVER the day to do it, as you lose information from the lynch, and leads to day 2 with no information beyond who died. I don't like that.

It is better to have less information from today then waiting until we have more information (like who is clearly town) when scum can use that information to kill two clearly pro-town players in a row.
Following a no-lynch today, the "extra" scum kill will fairly blind. Later in the game that extra kill form a no-lych will eliminate someone who is clearly town.

[tomorrow wendy]

xite, why did you bail off of the Nexus wagon and vote for Lateralus on page 10?

It seems odd to me that you would be happy riding on the Nexus wagon at 4 votes, and then switch to someone else who was on the Nexus wagon.

[tomorrow wendy]

Was the slip-up with your alt a complete accident, Adel?

yes

[tomorrow wendy]

Sorry Xite but it was too long for me. Could you be a dear and summarize it for me?

[tomorrow wendy]

my assessment: nolynch is optimal, followed by h.fitz lynch, followed by xite lynch.


I am a baller

[tomorrow wendy]

I understand how your analysis works, what do you make of it though? As in who is playing to common scum voting patterns or anything like that, or is it just a WIP that is useful later?

I need two flips to make any real progress.

[tomorrow wendy]

1. What do you think about the Lateralus / Nexus situation

lat is more likely to be town

2. Your current views on Korashk/LlamaFluff?

not very scummy

3. What do you think about the Lateralus / Xite situation?

i prefer to lynch Xite today if enough people don't see the light and elect nolynch

4. Any other suspicians or alternates to who could be scum if fitz turns up town?

nexus

[tomorrow wendy]

1. Why?gut
2. Why?gut
3. Why Xite?gut
Are you not suspious of havingfitz? still him, lynch him too.
What about PranaDevil? nah, I think he is fine now
4. Why? gut

[tomorrow wendy]

"Does this mean that Xite is your top lynch candidate at this time?"
-- no, nolynch followed by h.fitz is still preferred, but given a choice between Lat and Xite I'll vote to lynch Xite.

"If it could be useful after having two flips, wouldn't it be better to lynch today so that it could be useful tomorrow rather than waiting an extra day and having an extra townie dead before it becomes useful?"
-- if we do that then no-lynch becomes optimal on day 2, and informed scumhunting still doesn't begin until day 3.

@noone but myself really: I find it interesting that both Xite and wendy are linking fitz to each other. Im not sure what to make of it right now, but I'll have to look back at a couple things when I feel this becomes relevant.

don't know what to make of it? Lynch h.fitz!

[tomorrow wendy]

Wendy: You're changing votes a lot. Since you've been here, you've voted for: havingfitz (14/8, post 288), PranaDevil (15/8, post 333), HERSELF (16/8, post 369), and then unvoting and voting a no lynch 2 minutes later (16/8, post 370). What? Absolutely ridiculous. In the space of 2 days, you've changed your vote four times.

but dalt didn't change his vote, so doesn't it balance. Besides, Prana needed a good poke. I'm back to thinking that h.fitz and xite are scum.

someone asked how to prove that something is random,
so I'll demonstrate.

I will use the lottery drawing at http://www.calottery.com/games/fantasyfive/ as my random number generator
the drawing is in a few hours, so I'll place my vote tomorrow with the result
the game posts five numbers, and I'll use the last of the five
if the last number for the AUG 18 drawing is
even = i'll vote for h.fitz
odd = i'll vote for xite

[tomorrow wendy]

And tw's last post confirms my vote on her (or him). If you are are town Adel you could have done a much better job in this game IMO.

and if I were scum?

[tomorrow wendy]

xite are scum.

someone asked how to prove that something is random,
so I'll demonstrate.

I will use the lottery drawing at http://www.calottery.com/games/fantasyfive/ as my random number generator
the drawing is in a few hours, so I'll place my vote tomorrow with the result
the game posts five numbers, and I'll use the last of the five
if the last number for the AUG 18 drawing is
even = i'll vote for h.fitz
odd = i'll vote for xite

Draw #6129 on 8/18/2010

8 10 19 34

36

unvote; vote: havingfitz

[tomorrow wendy]

ConfidAnon, how many games are you currently alive in or running?

~~~
IAU: 102 doesn't seem like a strawman to me, I agree with it. I considered the wagon thing to be null, and the active lurking to be less scummy than behavior displayed by three other players.

[tomorrow wendy]

What do LML and CA thank of nolynch?

[tomorrow wendy]

Prana, please note h.fitz trying to engage a deeper conversation about

Day2 nolynch

before you throw a yellow card at me for asking for LML and CA's opinions.

I specifically asked LML and CA because I believe that both of them are experienced enough to know that nolynch is optimal, and their silence on the subject is interesting since my advocacy for nolynch is being used as a scum-tell against me by a couple of players.

Wendy, you've changed your vote

again

...I don't think using a lottery is a good way to choose who you're voting for :/

nah, I am a little bit more confident that h.fitz is scum than xite, but xite would be easier to lynch. Rather than waste a bunch of brain resources, I did the equivalent of flipping a coin, and we got to share a teaching moment as a side benefit.

[tomorrow wendy]

Prana, from the top of this page:

Posted again for tw as s/he has failed to respond:

@noone but myself really: I find it interesting that both Xite and wendy are linking fitz to each other. Im not sure what to make of it right now, but I'll have to look back at a couple things when I feel this becomes relevant.

don't know what to make of it? Lynch h.fitz!

tw...why don't you present a case on me that is not based on OMGUS...or if it is based on that...admit it for what it is. All you're doing is cheerleading. No posting of any value. Additonally...

"If it could be useful after having two flips, wouldn't it be better to lynch today so that it could be useful tomorrow rather than waiting an extra day and having an extra townie dead before it becomes useful?"
-- if we do that then no-lynch becomes optimal on day 2, and informed scumhunting still doesn't begin until day 3.

How so...either way we still end up at D2 with 3 flips behind us? A lynch today coupled with tonight's NK will be the two flips you mention.

if we do that then no-lynch becomes optimal on day 2, and informed scumhunting still doesn't begin until day 3.

[tomorrow wendy]

FFS, please reread it. He was asking "How so" in reply to "if we do that then no-lynch becomes optimal on day 2, and informed scumhunting still doesn't begin until day 3."

[tomorrow wendy]

crap, sorry for the alt fail. Ironically, I was determined to take a lynch rather than out my alt.

at the risk of being accused to providing information over analysis, please enjoy

it will help get more information out of your reread, I promise.

Also, why the pic? trying to make more sense of it, but I just don't know

Also, why the pic? trying to make more sense of it, but I just don't know

Finally something we agree on. I have no clue what that chart is supposed to show. Maybe an explanation is in order.

FWIW nolynch today is optimal for town. at some point we will have to get of of evens (NL @ 4 alive with 1 scum remain is really rough for town, and each day we wait until then yields a slight loss of expected win %)

Also, why the pic? trying to make more sense of it, but I just don't know

the numbers down the left side are the numbers for each post where a vote was made. the row of the top is each of the players, and the column under each name is who they voted for, and how many votes were on the wagon. the column on the right is the page number where each vote occurred.

I didn't notice that I had left off the Iamausername column and page number column on my screen shot.

Did Leech or Xite follow up on this? Did anyone else notice that the description I gave "the column on the right is the page number where each vote occurred" did fit the graphic I posted?

Did anyone notice that I left Iamausername out of the portion of the screen I grabbed?

[tomorrow wendy]

lol, my last post is a phbbb version 3 fail. I didn't know the boxes surrounding graphics auto resize with browser window size, clipping graphics in some cases. The old board software didn't do that.

[tomorrow wendy]

1) I specifically asked LML and CA because I believe that both of them are experienced enough to know that nolynch is optimal, and their silence on the subject is interesting since my advocacy for nolynch is being used as a scum-tell against me by a couple of players.

2)...I don't think using a lottery is a good way to choose who you're voting for :/

nah, I am a little bit more confident that h.fitz is scum than xite,

but xite would be easier to lynch.

Rather than waste a bunch of brain resources, I did the equivalent of flipping a coin, and we got to share a teaching moment as a side benefit.

1) Or because they seem to be a little less... involved... with the game? Also, it's not a scumtell that you suggested it, it's a scumtell that you're STILL pushing it, and you didn't start pushing it until you had a lot of pressure on you.
2) Bolded.....

1)I'm not really pushing it. If I were

really

pushing it I'd be throwing a professor mafia scummy in your face and calling most of you idiots for swallowing the "no-lynch is sub-optimal" site meta without noticing that this specific setup is an exception to the general rule.
Hopefully, after I flip y'all will reconsider it for Day 2. In this game, if you chart player proficiency against opinion of no-lynch in this specific setup, you'll see that those with titles and lots of game experience (with the possible exception of LML) agree with me that No Lynch

before mylo

is a key consideration.
2) Yes, I had two players I was suspicious of , and I took the tactical consideration of lynch capacity into consideration in picking which one to vote for, or in this case figured that the total difference was slim enough that using a provably random mechanism to choose whom to vote for was ok.

[tomorrow wendy]

xite, the only people who should lack doubts about a D1 lynch target are those with a scum win condition.

For a town player the baseline % chance of any other playing being scum is currently 22%, and to double those odds would be a remarkable piece of scumhunting, and would still yield an inaccurate lynch more than half of the time.

[tomorrow wendy]

Love how both of you like to attack tomorrow wendy when he posts fluff yet you attack him when he's posting useful information when Xite (and kinda fit) says that it will be useful later. If it is why are you complaining? Looks like both of you saw IIoA was a scum tell and decided to bash anyone who does so no matter what the content is.

that + utilization of the reverse scientific method (determine conclusion then sort evidence to find support for conclusion) sums it up the approach rather nicely.[/quote]

[tomorrow wendy]

it just occurred to me that an excellent argument for lynching xite is that it would shut him up, and make the game more readable for future replacements and those who reread the game. A more informed town is more likely to succeed, and a more readable game thread yields a more reading of the game yields a more informed town.

[tomorrow wendy]

lol, but nolynch would still be better

[tomorrow wendy]

it just occurred to me that an excellent argument for lynching xite is that it would shut him up, and make the game more readable for future replacements and those who reread the game. A more informed town is more likely to succeed, and a more readable game thread yields a more reading of the game yields a more informed town.

Interestingly this same argument would work for you was well, wendy.

not really. my signal:noise ratio is rather better than your's

[tomorrow wendy]

sorry guys, I don't have the heart to argue my heart out. I'll switch my vote to xite if the opportunity to lynch him presents itself, but I'll leave my vote on h.fitz in the meantime for the symbolic value since it seems pretty clear to me that I'm going to be the lynch. goodluck!

[tomorrow wendy]

calling scumteam of "Xite91 + havingfitz"

told ya!

[tomorrow wendy]

post 500 is an example of scum distancing.

[tomorrow wendy]

honest injun, I'm town. please lynch h.fitz and xite.

[tomorrow wendy]

@Wendy: I still want to know why you are posting those graphs before a flip.

alt fail combined with what I assumed was a more common "adel makes vote diagrams more often as town" meta. I alt slipped, and realized that I needed to post a vote diagram screenshot quickly to meet that meta-expectation. Admittedly, this can wifomed to death, so I'm not claiming it for a town tell or anything, but you asked twice nicely.

[tomorrow wendy]

sure, I'll be happy to trade a Xite lynch for a CA lynch.

[tomorrow wendy]

unvote,vote:xite

so that llamafluff has a chance to change his vote to a winning wagon before the weekend.

[tomorrow wendy]

Okay, so I had a bunch of posts I wanted to respond to but it pretty much amounts to this and I"m too lazy and too strapped for time to say the same thing again and again.
First, the Adel slip was almost obviously on purpose to get you guys to do what you're doing.
And then he says that he posted the chart to fulfill his meta?
But didn't someone say that posting useless information and pushing irrelevant things was his scum meta?
And he said that that chart wasn't useful until at least tomorrow.
Just sayin.

gosh, day 1 is serious business.

as scum, I expect that I would've slipped through day 1 rather easily, and if cornered down the road I would've make sure to out post my attackers and kick up some super serious chaos if I got cornered... which wouldn't have happened on day 1. (btw, the whole "wendy panicked at lynch -2 is a red herring. I know I could've hung out at lynch-1 for a while without actually being hung.)

.
Prana: I don't like that he went through a phase of not contributing anything unless poked.

you're welcome for poking him then.

[tomorrow wendy]

Oh boy WIFOM!
Or you got caught and so you're doing that during D1?
Lesse... who were two of your biggest attackers...
Me and.... Fitz!
Holy hell I think we've found something

reminds me of

it just occurred to me that an excellent argument for lynching xite is that it would shut him up, and make the game more readable for future replacements and those who reread the game. A more informed town is more likely to succeed, and a more readable game thread yields a more reading of the game yields a more informed town.

Interestingly this same argument would work for you was well, wendy.

not really. my signal:noise ratio is rather better than your's

I dunno, I think you're both as bad as each other.

You're about to have another argument which will no doubt go on for another few posts, not really providing any of us with anything useful.

and

calling scumteam of "Xite91 + havingfitz"

and

my assessment: nolynch is optimal, followed by h.fitz lynch, followed by xite lynch.


I am a baller

and

calling scumteam of "Xite91 + havingfitz"

told ya!

[tomorrow wendy]

I'm not sure I follow that. You did kick up "some super serious chaos" when you were cornered. You're saying that if you were scum, it just wouldn't have happened on day 1?

super serious chaos would've been many pages longer.

Also, I'm not sure how much of a red herring that actually is when you admittedly posted a chart specifically to live up to your town meta. If you were legitimately comfortable being in that place, why did you play to your meta instead of just note the alt fail?

because I expected to live to future days when deep metas become more common, and I expected llamafluff and iamausername (at least) and the possible addition of future replacements to compare "wendy" play to "adel" play, and I had a reasonable expectation that a lack of voting diagrams would end up being held against me, so since I had one I posted it pronto.

anyhow, if you want to meta adel, you can find information on past game at http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?tit ... ldid=46725

[tomorrow wendy]

+ evidence for "best mafia player" and "professor mafia" scummies at http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=2008_Scummies

[tomorrow wendy]

been thinking about Nexus's careful & deliberate voting. He seems convinced that vote hopping is a scum tell. In particular, I suspect that his voting habits in past games would be worth a deep meta exploration.

What do LML and CA thank of nolynch?

Mathematically, a NL is a good play.

However, the timing of the NL doesn't quite matter as long as it's before LyLO.

I don't personally think that a D1 No-Lynch is practical here, especially since there is information and voting patterns that could be of incredible help when someone's alignment flips, along with the inherent Night Kill.

do we have a disagreement?

While I agree at some point we could do with a No Lynch to even out the numbers properly, I don't feel Day 1 is EVER the day to do it, as you lose information from the lynch, and leads to day 2 with no information beyond who died. I don't like that.

It is better to have less information from today then waiting until we have more information (like who is clearly town) when scum can use that information to kill two clearly pro-town players in a row.
Following a no-lynch today, the "extra" scum kill will fairly blind. Later in the game that extra kill form a no-lych will eliminate someone who is clearly town.

I believe that electing nolynch

before

mylo (before lylo is a no-brainer) is important. Do you agree?

[tomorrow wendy]

been thinking about Nexus's careful & deliberate voting. He seems convinced that vote hopping is a scum tell. In particular, I suspect that his voting habits in past games would be worth a deep meta exploration.

crap, only one other game on this site under that name, it is on day 3, and he is still alive (note to newer players, this is walking close to the edge of talking about an ongoing game. All of the information I just offered is mod revealed, which makes it ok as I understand the rules. I'm pointing this out because baiting someone into breaking site rules to draw a mod kill is a tactic that is occasionally used and generates mad chaos and lots of noise. I am not doing that here.) http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 11&t=14587

[tomorrow wendy]

I'm pointing this out because baiting someone into breaking site rules to draw a mod kill is a tactic that is occasionally used

a possible example of such:

(You can send a PM to Kmd, he knows me IRL )

[tomorrow wendy]

a link to an ongoing game that xite was alive in and that CA is still alive in: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 51&t=14821

[tomorrow wendy]

A) Adel is a great scumhunter.
B) Adel thinks CA is scum.
Therefore
C) We should lynch CA?

quoted for sloppiness.

A. I won "best individual performance as mafia" for getting my entire scumteam to survive against a town that included many names you will recognize including Glork, pooky and mathcam (link http://www.mafiascum.net/archive/viewto ... f7349f6f78 ) not "best at catching mafia" -- this supports my claim of being good enough as scum to play a low risk manner in a 2 vs.10 game, as opposed to the high risk manner I adopted) and "professor mafia" (which supports why I was willing to argue against the consensus for nolynch, I honestly feel that I have a firmer grasp of theory than most other people, especially on what constitutes a successful day 1) -- My major motivation for citing those awards was to undermine assertions that my play has been incompetent. Since I replaced in, the most townie players have come to a consensus that Xite will probably be the lynch, his wagon will produce information even if he flips town, his absence from the game will improve the signal:noise ratio, and in my estimation he is more likely to be scum than most other players.
B. CA != xite
C. Please look at the ongoing game I just linked to in my last post.

[tomorrow wendy]

repost for LML's benefit since he missed it:

been thinking about Nexus's careful & deliberate voting. He seems convinced that vote hopping is a scum tell. In particular, I suspect that his voting habits in past games would be worth a deep meta exploration.

What do LML and CA thank of nolynch?

Mathematically, a NL is a good play.

However, the timing of the NL doesn't quite matter as long as it's before LyLO.

I don't personally think that a D1 No-Lynch is practical here, especially since there is information and voting patterns that could be of incredible help when someone's alignment flips, along with the inherent Night Kill.

do we have a disagreement?

While I agree at some point we could do with a No Lynch to even out the numbers properly, I don't feel Day 1 is EVER the day to do it, as you lose information from the lynch, and leads to day 2 with no information beyond who died. I don't like that.

It is better to have less information from today then waiting until we have more information (like who is clearly town) when scum can use that information to kill two clearly pro-town players in a row.
Following a no-lynch today, the "extra" scum kill will fairly blind. Later in the game that extra kill form a no-lych will eliminate someone who is clearly town.

I believe that electing nolynch

before

mylo (before lylo is a no-brainer) is important. Do you agree?

[tomorrow wendy]

LML, I know it is just day 1, but it would really help if you became more involved. I know that day 1s now last much longer than the 8-page average in the good old days, and I also feel the urge to just coast and let the chips fall where they may, but come one... a little bit more attention to detail please, especially if you are just going to post once per day from your phone.

[tomorrow wendy]

wasn't an ad-hom... look at how sloppy your last post was. You thought I was trying to lynch Ca instead of Ca, you thought that I had claimed a "mafia catcher award" and I felt it was rather clear that you didn't bother with the questions I pointed in your direction, and i reckon that you didn't bother to look at the on going game i just linked to.

Wow. WTF Wendy? I cannot envision a pro-town player ever voting for themselves, even in jest. Frustration could be played much better than this.

Confirm Vote: TW

wasn't trying to emulate frustration, was trying to get overeager scum to go for me.

[tomorrow wendy]

EBWOP: You thought I was trying to lynch Ca instead of Xite

[tomorrow wendy]

(and yes, your ongoing game has nothing to do with this one. It's been ignored).

bullshit, it is brand spanking new meta material on one player in this game. As a person who apparently believes in meta arguments, why do you say it has

nothing

to do with this one?

please don't make ridiculous accusations about "not being around".

I'm making the accurate observation that you are paying less attention than you are capable of, mistakes that are beneath you, and I'm asking you nicely to please pay closer attention to this game.

Since I replaced in, the most townie players have come to a consensus that Xite will probably be the lynch, his wagon will produce information even if he flips town, his absence from the game will improve the signal:noise ratio, and in my estimation he is more likely to be scum than most other players.

Actually, I'll really have to look at a vote count. It seems to me that you're still the vote leader. It boggles my mind that you can make a misrepresentation of these sorts and expect to not be called on it.[/quote]
or pay attention like I know you are capable of, and count the people who are highly likely to change their votes to Xite and those who are likely to change to Wendy before the deadline.

You may have answered this before, but it probably got lost inbetween some of the garbage you posted, but why did you self-vote again? A whole gambit that lasted a post or two?

how many times have I self votes? Once. Two minutes later I voted for nolynch. Does that count as one or two separate moves? Are either of those moves are "good" moves for scum trying to dodge a lynch? Woudl you ever consider either of those moves when you are playing as scum? Are they possibly good for getting scum to over extend themselves? I think so, and the additional pressure that has built on Xite since then seems to support it, and if Xite flips scum I shall consider my tactic vindicated.

In regards to the PM real life KMD/Xite, I didn't read it as scummy, and I didn't see it as a modkill ploy. In a game like this

(one that seems to be full of strong players)

, I felt like it was a misguided attempt of explaining.

to me this seems to contradict somethign you said earlier:

I think the meta needs to be changed. I have a major problem with it. Town needs to stop acting scummy and say they're running gambits. It's making it much harder for the real townies to find the logic.

Not everyone needs to be professor freaking mafia. When the rest of the town doesn't know you're gambiting (as they shouldn't), it can look scummy.

What's EVEN WORSE is that the remainder of the town has been "brilliant gambit, Adel" when... ugh.

I'm truly grossed out by the current meta. Shit's flying now that wouldn't have even been discussed in the past.

right, the trick is to do something that gives the scum will latch onto as a scumtell they can use to lynch you with (especially if you can get them to underestimate you, and they aren't familiar with your meta) that a town player who is reading the game carefully won't bite on. Then your wagon will pick up steam, scum will overextend themselves (or push your wagon without really committing to it, or declare that you are town without fitting the profile of an attentive town player who would see through it) -- if the meta seems alien to you, perhaps we are standing on the shoulders of giants, and you are used to a less sophisticated game. I hear that epicmafia remains simple. Perhaps you would be happier over there.

~~~
back to his last post:

I feel the no-lynch play doesn't matter as much as long as it's played, mathematically. The odds do not change, and I, personally, would like to see a flip before a no-lynch is played.

You again ignore the tactical point (prevention of back to back scum kills of obviously town players later in the game) that I made. Was my point incorrect, inconvenient, or something else?

[tomorrow wendy]

xite mafiascum meta report:

game title, Xite's role, Xite's status, game status, game link
(in rough chronological order)
1 newbie 970, mafia goon, lynched day 2, ongoing, http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 28&start=0
2 Of Gods And Men, replaced by LynchMePls, dead but not yet buried (alignment has not yet been mod revealed if I'm reading it right), ongoing http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 68&start=0
3 Mini 996 - Acosmic Mafia, VT, killed night 3, ongoing, http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 10&start=0
4 Open 226: Big Love, alive, alive, ongoing, http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 85&start=0
5 Last Will Mafia II, alive ,alive, ongoing, http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... =3&t=14424

note that llamafluff is the moderator

6 Mini #1004, alive, alive, ongoing http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 23&t=14567

note that llamafluff is the moderator

7 Open 227 - Friends and Enemies alive ,alive, ongoing http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 51&t=14432
8 Open 231: My Name is Earl, town doctor , replaced by ConfidAnon,

game over

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 96&start=0 note that CA replaced Xite in this game
9 Open 241: Emotional Breakdown! mafia goon, lynched day 1, ongoing, http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 51&t=14821 note that CA is in this game
10 Mini #1022- PokeUPick, alive ,alive, ongoing http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 23&t=14811

I wish I would've done this earlier. Since he is alive in so many games it will be very easy to bust him later if he is scum. I didn't look through the player lists very carefully, but I noticed CA in a couple, and I think that I noted which games he was also in except for one which I can't find right now. IIRC Prana was also in one of those games. It is also interesting that llamafluff is moderating him in two games. I would expect llamafluff and CA to have a decent feeling for Xite's play, and have strong opinions on his alignment.

[tomorrow wendy]

Actually, it looks like I didn't note which games CA was in that Xite was also in except for one.
CA, which games have you been in that xite has also been in?

rereading CA in iso, I don't see any strong interaction between him and xite. In his last post in this thread he stated that he was looking for a way to get into the game, yet one player whose number he might have (since he replaced him once, just saw him get lynched as scum in another) is a leading lynch candidate, and the only opinion he has voiced on xite is "Also, not liking Xite's reactions right now" -- after rereading CA in iso in light of this my estimation of his chance of being scum is dramatically increasing.

For the sake of comparison, llamafluff replaces in and is immediately all over Xite's shit, and continues to support a CA lynch or a Xite lynch.

Also, honestly, if people want to look at people's metas in ongoing games, they can look for themselves. Why are you posting them?

because it is fucking tedious. This way I lay them all out, you have a chance to point out any that I missed, and anyone else that wants to follow up can do so more easily.

[tomorrow wendy]

Or is it that whole posting a bunch of irrelevant stuff as scum thing again.
Since you seem to place so much belief in metas, why don't we talk about that one for a while?

ok. I suggest that you get the person who made that comment to expand upon it, cause you totally don't understand what he was talking about. for background, one of the last threads I participated in in mafia discussion was titled "Scumhunting" http://www.mafiascum.net/archive/viewto ... =5&t=12572
Xite, I think you'll dig it for ammo to use against the newbies in future games -- essentially, it lays out a strong argument for why "experienced" players get to get away with gut reads, and newer players don't.

check out http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 87&start=0 for a mafia discussion where I explain the utility of the stuff that my attackers keep on characterizing as IIOA http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 87&start=0

[tomorrow wendy]

@ wendy:

Could you explain what post 522 was meant to communicate?

Xite posted

Oh boy WIFOM!
Or you got caught and so you're doing that during D1?
Lesse... who were two of your biggest attackers...
Me and.... Fitz!
Holy hell I think we've found something

so I posted that post to mark that something was wrong for that characterization.

at the time I posted "calling scumteam of h.fitz+xite" the votecount was

Llamafluff -3- ConfidAnon, Nexus, havingfitz
Nexus -3- LoudmouthLee, Lateralus22, Leech
ConfidAnon -2- PranaDevil, Llamafluff
wendy -2- Saga, Xite91
Lateralus22 -1- iamausername
havingfitz -1- tomorrow wendy

(and Xite said that it was mess with the newbie time in the post he voted for me in)

so in order for Xite's characterization to be true, that would mean that I was caught by a wagon of 2.

Also: If you could choose anyone in the game right now to be the day's lynch, who would it be?

Xite

Who would your choice be if you had to choose someone that there was at least another couple players that you could get to support the lynch?

CA and h.fitz

General Statements:

Has there been anyone else that has expressed any potential support of a CA lynch besides those voting him and myself? I dont want to end up rereading 5 or so pages again just to find out that the answer is no.

yes. I think that there may be as many as 6 votes for CA, and the first wagon to 6 wins at deadline. Are you thinking about advocating for a last minute switch from Xite to CA?

[tomorrow wendy]

Now, wendy... I'm sorry, but dragging up ONGOING games is just throwing stuff to see if it sticks. The worst bit about it is that you're playing that fine line between discussing ongoing games, and just mentioning there IS one.

I produced a comprehensive meta, which happens to only include one completed game. I noted two players who should have a basis for an opinion on Xite from other games, and analyzed their interaction with xite in that light.

plus I offered a explicit warning earlier in the game: "note to newer players, this is walking close to the edge of talking about an ongoing game. All of the information I just offered is mod revealed, which makes it ok as I understand the rules. I'm pointing this out because baiting someone into breaking site rules to draw a mod kill is a tactic that is occasionally used and generates mad chaos and lots of noise. I am not doing that here."

[tomorrow wendy]

not my fault the hyperactive newbie hasn't completed more than a single game. I didn't know that going into it. I was expecting more since he has almost 1k game posts. ONE is completed, his alignment has been revealed as MAFIA in two others. If he survives the day in this game, more of those games will be completed, and much more information from of those games be legal to present as evidence against him.

[tomorrow wendy]

Except those two players (Of which I'm one) CANNOT comment on Xite's playstyle between the games without being mod-killed.

IIRC, you are only in one shared game with him. Which one was it?

I expected that llamafluff and CA would have enough experience with his play to have a basis for an informed opinion of his alignment in this game.

was i wrong? Do you have more experience with Xite than one game? Has alignment been mod-revealed in those games?

And warning or not, how is anyone meant to make USE of the meta without referencing ongoing games? They can't, thus you've posted the warning to be able to do what you've just done "But I told them not to reference them" while at the same time saying "hey, look at this ongoing meta we can use".

one of which is currently in Night one, and the mod just revealed his alignment as MAFIA earlier this week! Dood, you should look at it.

[tomorrow wendy]

Have you even targetted CA since you have replaced in?

you know what is crap? That in the two posts I made immediately before asked this I wrote

Since he is alive in so many games it will be very easy to bust him later if he is scum. I didn't look through the player lists very carefully, but I noticed CA in a couple, and I think that I noted which games he was also in except for one which I can't find right now. IIRC Prana was also in one of those games. It is also interesting that llamafluff is moderating him in two games. I would expect llamafluff and CA to have a decent feeling for Xite's play, and have strong opinions on his alignment.

and

ereading CA in iso, I don't see any strong interaction between him and xite. In his last post in this thread he stated that he was looking for a way to get into the game, yet one player whose number he might have (since he replaced him once, just saw him get lynched as scum in another) is a leading lynch candidate, and the only opinion he has voiced on xite is "Also, not liking Xite's reactions right now" -- after rereading CA in iso in light of this my estimation of his chance of being scum is dramatically increasing.

For the sake of comparison, llamafluff replaces in and is immediately all over Xite's shit, and continues to support a CA lynch or a Xite lynch.

you know what else is crap?

You mention the fact he is in games with CA, Llam, and perhaps Prana. Does the fact none of tem have put a vote done on Xite tell you anything? Worthless crap.

llamafluff said that he was going to vote for Xite.

what is that, you want more crap?

You menton your scummies in your defense....so you have been recognized for good play or opinions in the past. How does that matter in this game?

try reading the prior posts where I explained that. Reading comprehension saves time.

[tomorrow wendy]

Except those two players (Of which I'm one) CANNOT comment on Xite's playstyle between the games without being mod-killed. Thus it's still pointless.

why do you have to be able to comment on information for it to be valuable? Can't information that you can't comment on inform your lynch selection, making it more accurate?

[tomorrow wendy]

So far you've drawn people in with useless images, self voting for no reason (bollocks to your claimed reason), tried to distract town with a pointless Day 1 no lynch which outright contradicts your requirement for needing 2 flips to be able to start scum hunting (a no lynch on day 1 means you have to wait until day THREE for those two flips, when it's actually 3 flips... talk about contradicting yourself),

another reading comprehension fail by you. two flips in a 12p game is when a voting diagram begins to start paying dividends, and is when I presume that "informed scumhunting" begins. Day 1 no lynch is to minimize the utility of the extra scum kill. FFS, I even typed out "if we do that then no-lynch becomes optimal on day 2, and informed scumhunting still doesn't begin until day 3" in post 422.

now you are trying to get people modkilled by referencing ongoing games.

You've watched too many movies. Scum don't actually explain their clever plan to the hero before they carry it out.

sorry guys, I don't have the heart to argue my heart out. I'll switch my vote to xite if the opportunity to lynch him presents itself, but I'll leave my vote on h.fitz in the meantime for the symbolic value since it seems pretty clear to me that I'm going to be the lynch. goodluck!

fucking fail. I just put way way more time into this game than I intended to, at the expense of the life LML doesn't think that I have. Fucking mafia.

[tomorrow wendy]

here is the thing about no-lynch in this setup:

every day before mylo the town will typically agree to postpone no-lynch, until we are in mylo, and then it is too late, the two most obviously town players eat it, and the town that remain are fucked

I nailed down the opinions of enough people that in this town no-lynch might actually be elected before mylo, which I believe would be a first on this site.

[tomorrow wendy]

FFS, I even typed out "if we do that then no-lynch becomes optimal on day 2, and informed scumhunting still doesn't begin until day 3" in post 422. .

I know, I saw you type it out, I also stated you were completely wrong and that if we go for a no lynch (which is a good idea) EARLY GAME IS A STUPID TIME TO DO IT.

so now instead of contradicting myself (as you just claimed in your last post), I am simply wrong instead?

I can't even remember who originally said it (I want to say Wolf, but could be wrong), but the optimal time is the lynch before MyLo, anytime before that is just throwing away information (you said you need two flips, yet want to go for three, WHAT?!), anytime after that is giving the game up.

you are still missing the informational advantage scum enjoy in being able to kill "obviously town" players, an advantage the increases every day after the first.

[tomorrow wendy]

(you said you need two flips, yet want to go for three, WHAT?!)

sorry, I missed this question.

scenario 1:
nolynch -> night kill -> lynch --> night kill = three flips before informed scumhunting begins.

scenario 2:
lynch -> nightkill -> no lynch --> night kill = three flips before informed scumhunting begins.

it is impossible for me to advocate an early game no-lynch without 3 flips occurring before "informed scumhunting" can begin.

[tomorrow wendy]

perhaps repetition is the solution: you are still missing the informational advantage scum enjoy in being able to kill "obviously town" players, an advantage the increases every day after the first. Being able to kill two town leaders will eradicate townie leadership, and go a long way towards stoping any townie alliance that is threatening to run the board. The cost to the town of electing "no lynch" increases with each day.

If we hit scum Day 2 then the No Lynch becomes an exceptionally stupid effing idea until much, much later in the game doesn't it?

and if we don't then day 3 will be 6vs2, and day 4 will be 4vs2mylo you are saying that you will only endorse nolynch on day 3, I'm saying that there is a tactical consideration that you are ignoring that pushes that forward by two days.

You're saying that I am scum because I have an opinion that falls outside of the current consensus, and differs from your own opinion by a single day?

in a 12 player game:
1. a lynch based upon one flip will be more accurate than a lynch with no flips
2. a lynch with three flips will be more accurate than a lynch based upon no flips
3. the earlier the scum get their extra kill, the less useful it will be for them
4. if we are ever going to no-lynch, then to minimize the cost to the town (measured in loss of lynch accuracy) and maximize the cost to the scum (in being less able to identify who will be a confirmed townie in lylo) day 1 no-lynch is optimal.

[tomorrow wendy]

Except that only works if you Quick No Lynch at the beginning, by this point in Day 1 scum already know who the biggest threats are.

except that they really don't... Nobody is clearly considered town by most other players yet.
the day before mylo it most certainly will be clear who is considered town by most other players.

They already know who is thinking things through well enough to get rid of, so your statement holds no water.

then why vote to lynch me if you know scum will want to nk me?

Scum are't about to kill the person posing no threat to them at all are they? They'll hit the person posing a decent threat. They already know who this is at this point, and if they don't then the scum are idiots who will out themselves anyway.

so why are you voting for a player who would be obvious NK bait later in the game?

So, as I say, your statement holds no water, and it doesn't "differ by a day" unless we mislynch Day 2.

what are the odds of that? Please demonstrate your fluency with game theory by showing your work.

According to your own statement you work better with 2 flips, that's Day 2 if we lynch now, and more information in total. So sorry, but your reasoning is wrong.

I'll give you a refresher on basic number theory:
1 < 2 < 3 < 4 <5
the more flips the more information scumhunters have

[tomorrow wendy]

ebwop:

So, as I say, your statement holds no water, and it doesn't "differ by a day" unless we mislynch Day 2.

what are the odds of mislynching on both day 1 and day 2
what are the odds of mislynching on both day 2 and day 3 following a nolynch on day 1?
Please demonstrate your fluency with game theory by showing your work.

[tomorrow wendy]

found a nice appeal to authority on the subject of mountainous games

GL 1 - 2:10 NS, scum lynched D4 (lylo)
Brunchma 1 - 2:8 NS, scum lynched D1 and D5 (town win)
Brunchma 2 - 2:4 NS, effectively, and I'm not sure it actually finished (I was in the game and lynched D1, but I wasn't actually around and playing)
Mini 77 - 2:10 NS, scum lynched D3
Open 2 - 3:14 DS, scum lynched D3 and D8
Open 55 - 2:10 NS, abandoned after D2

Small sample size, but based on the only data we actually have that's directly relevant here,

towns don't have trouble getting down to 1 scum, they have trouble lynching the last one.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3&start=93

I found it while I was looking for the numbers thread: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 1&start=50 (but the link to the spreadsheet is broken)

we don't have any investigative roles to save us, we don't have any protective roles to save those who are most townie, we have to rely upon scum interaction to find ALL of the scum, and we have to nolynch before mylo.

We have information from day 1. We can nolynch now, and make slightly more informed lynches on all future days.

[tomorrow wendy]

darn, I was hoping for Nexus to vote for xite. That puts me at 5, and xite is still only at 4. I expect that CA will also vote for me, so IAU and llamafluff you guys have to vote for xite before CA has a chance to vote for me, or else I will be the deadline lynch.

[tomorrow wendy]

Writing as I read again. Sort of.

First things first: I really hate people using the reasonings "Because of gut." Xite, and Wendy are prime examples of this. Either provide some hard evidence, or don't say anything, because to me it seems like a random vote. I mean, gut probably is a large factor, but there has to have been a post that's set off your gut churning like that, surely? So, show me the posts. (Yes, I realise Leech makes this point too, but I wanted to reiterate it)

see my iso post 78, see the "scumhunting" thread at http://www.mafiascum.net/archive/viewto ... =5&t=12572

wendy randomly calling a scum team of xite and fitz was odd, because the two of them haven't really had many interactions. I haven't had much interaction with Prana, or you, Wendy, does that make us scum teams too?

no, it does not make you scum teams.

I skimmed the game thread, diagramed the votes, and called out my gut read.

~~~

prview, fuck it. I waqs retarded for coming back to this site.

[tomorrow wendy]

you guys are idiot, you waste this much time playing this game, but you don't fucking pay attention or even understand the basic theory? sad.

[tomorrow wendy]

If you're town, i'm sure you're bubbling over with anger with (a) how Wendy has completely tried to distract the town. and (b) how many of us (myself included) allowed her to do so.

unvote, vote Wendy

can i get a hammer?

[tomorrow wendy]

nah, no lynch is better.

unvote, vote:no lynch

[tomorrow wendy]

oh wait, only scum self vote:

unvote, vote wendy

[tomorrow wendy]

ooo, I got one!

[tomorrow wendy]

Hm, it's nice to see you're serious now tw, and it looks like Prana's getting a little angry.

Not so much angry, just frustrated that wendy is so deliberately trying to derail actual scum hunting in favour of unusable meta and game theory discussion.
.

was trying to give you the real shit, the best I have to offer. pearls to swine.

[tomorrow wendy]

Not got a strong read on Xite, and will need to do an ISO to check him, so will do that come next day phase. I do feel there have been some questionable comments from him as I've seen them pointed out by others. Just at this stage I feel wendy is easily the best lynch for the day.

selection bias is the name of your affliction.

[tomorrow wendy]

Because... I don't have time now perhaps? You think I spend all day every day on here or something? Seriously? I'm actually busy today, so I'm just flicking over when I get an e-mail to say there's a new message, I don't have the time to dedicate to a full ISO check.

and seriously? do you have any clue how much time and effort I've put into this game? And you're going to lynch me because you don't comprehend me? What a huge freaking waste.

[tomorrow wendy]

mod: request replacement

-- mafia isn't a good idea for me anymore.
sorry folks, enjoy the rest of your game. I replaced in with the best on intentions, but I still care too much.

[tomorrow wendy]

I just thought of something after seeing wendy's quote in iau's post that says iau and LF have to vote Xite before CA can vote wendy in order for the Xite wagon to win. wendy voted himself before dropping out, putting that wagon up to 6 already. How is the Xite wagon supposed to get to 6 first now that wendy dropped assuming 1) that wendy is too aggrivated to check back at this game again and 2) there isn't a replacement already lined up that can hop in almost immediately to unvote. It seems wendy may have killed himself off either way now.

good point.

vote:xite