Mini 934 - Troubles at Smiths&Catharts (Game Over!)

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Yarr!

I'm not sure if I'll have enough time to read the thread before deadline hits (fairly sure I won't, actually), so cases would be appreciated.

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Well, thanks, Thor. I ISO Pie, go to the university planning to ISO kthxbye and NS to get a full picturewhen I got back and then come home to find the thread closed. Also, I'm noting that you didn't mention SK's no-result on Pie nor do any of the linked posts mention it. Which is very much consistent with a Thor-SK pairing.

(For the record, Pie looked town to me at first glance, but I never got round to taking a good look at kthxbye and NS, so that may not be very significant.)

I haven't finished reading the thread yet; I'm on page 34. I hope to finish it tonight.

So far, my impressions are SK>Thor>charter=Cyberbob>MichelSableheart in order of scumminess.

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Hey SPS. First of all, SK-Thor pairing? Is your only support for this reasoning the fact that Thor failed to mention my no-result of Pie in his summary to you, or is there additional reasoning?

It's the only thing that specifically points to SK-Thor that I've noted so far. (I'll probably take a closer look at the possibility when I finish my read assuming my suspicions don't change dramatically.)

Incidentally, could you also elaborate on at least your top three suspicions?

I don't even have three suspicions currently. Cyberbob and charter are null reads. Michel is a town read. Thor seems off occasionally. I'm mostly suspicious of you over Rayfrost's supposed metabreaking.

SPS because he still has yet to prove that my previous suspicions of his slot were wrong

I didn't even know you had suspicions of my slot. Is it TCC's or Socrates' play you're suspicious of? I'll add that to the list of things to look into.

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Thor, it probably wouldn't have made a difference, but I'd still have liked to give my opinion on Pie prior to the lynch.

Also, why did you neglect to mention SK's no-result on Pie?

SK, you don't believe Socrates' 1114?

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When you say "similar behaviour", do you mean claims of disinterest or lurking? Based on a quick msutils-search, he does appear to be playing less games now.

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So 1 Gunsmith & 9 Townies vs 3 scum, Cyberbob?

@Thor, it just strikes me as significant enough that it should've been mentioned in any kind of summary post; you weren't just talking about your case. It's fairly irrelevant if SK turns out to be scum, that's true, but SK was the alternative lynch. And if SK is telling the truth, then there's also a scum roleblocker, which means the no-result is fairly significant.

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Thor, who are you most suspicious of?

if SK is telling the truth, then there's also a scum roleblocker, which means the no-result is fairly significant.

Wait, so you aren't talking the Night 1 track of Pie but rather the Night 2 roleblock claim of Kerrigan? I was discussing the current cases which were Cyberbob's on Kerrigan and Mine on Pie and also Pie's general outlook. I linked to the cases in question so you could read them in the original poster's language, why would I mention Kerrigan being roleblocked when I was listing my own case on Pie, and whether or not Cyberbob discussed Kerrigan's roleblock claim (which actually I think he did) would be inside his case on her, why should I mention it specifically when linking to his case?

No. I was talking about the Night 1 track. It's just that the amount of actions scum undertake is obviously relevant to the interpretation of said track result.

I have no trouble with Michel not claiming.

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Also, I'm a little behind on reading due to some internet problems (this shouldn't be a problem for the future), so I only just reached the Fate-lynch. I tend to think post 979 (wherein Michel votes Fate and mongers support) is good evidence for Michel being town, but otherwise it's damn hard to get useful information out of this type of deadline lynch since reasoning becomes fairly irrelevant.

Next day, SK tries to get Thor to claim his night action. I like Thor's response here; SK has no business asking that question considering the amount of suspicion she's under. If Thor had told SK his action, SKscum could claim it to be truthful and then claim a guilty result Today, thereby avoiding having to claim to be roleblocked.

Additionally, if we assume SK is town, then what does SK expect to gain here? If Thor's scum, he would know about the roleblock (it would be a horrible play for a town roleblocker to block SK, so the roleblocker's scum. And 2 investigative roles does suggest scum roleblocker.), so wouldn't be fooled. If Thor's town, she potentially outs a power role.

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What he said.

I finished my read and my initial list (SK>Thor>chamber=Cyberbob>MichelSableheart) is still a fairly accurate representation of my suspicions, but chamber and Cyberbob I now slight town reads on. However, I don't like Thor-SK as a scum pair, which makes me pretty unsure about what to think.

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Could I ask where you're getting town reads on chamber and Cyberbob from?

Interactions with Fate and gut respectively.

I'm Charter, I don't think Chamber is in this game...

Which is a damn shame. chamber and I were scumchat buddies back in the day. At least I got your gender right.

I like charter's latest 2 posts.

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I hadn't thought scum Charter would tunnel on a scumbuddy like that, but after the opportunistic shift he had on me, then the idea of him bussing Fate becomes more plausible in my mind.

Explain. I don't see a real relation between the two.

SPS, any comments on the goings on?

Not really. It all seems a bit overblown. And I still need to do some ISOs.

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and I clear you and SK for the PR claim (since 3 PRs vs. 3 scum w. roleblocker does feel balanced)

And 2 PRs vs. 3 vanilla goons doesn't feel balanced? I don't see why you're lumping SK and Michel together here. Their claims are very different.

I've finished ISOing people and I'm currently leaning towards a Thor-charter scum team with SK-Cyberbob and Thor-SK as close second and third respectively.

There are a couple of specific things I noted which lead me to that conclusion, but mostly it's based on gut feeling and the reasons I've stated previously (the Rayfrost metabreaking and SK claim + rolefishing are the main things). Also: Thor's stance on Fate.

Exhibit A (pro-charterscum, anti-charterSK):

Kerrigan doesn't look like a likely buddy with Fate.

I don't see him saying this if he were scum with Kerrigan and Fate considering the lack of objective basis for it; there was a little spat between Kerrigan and Fate, but that wasn't inconsistent with Kerrigan-Fate as they were both serious lynch targets.

Note that he says this later:

I want to reread Kerrigan's stances on Fate and look for some scumbuddy connections.

Exhibit B (anti-Cyberbobscum):

I suddenly wouldn't mind a Cyber lynch either.

This kind of falsely moderate phrasing is exactly the kind of OMGUS one usually sees from scum trying not to overdo it.

I tend to think Cyberbob wouldn't say this about his scumbuddy.

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How do you see their claims as so different?

Tracker is a substantially stronger role than anything I can think up for Michel. (As Michel essentially confirms in his last post.)

By the way this is written up you seem to suspect Kerrigan and myself more (each of our names show up twice) why then is our pairing the third most likely scumpair in your opinion? Is it just that you suspect us both individually so you might as well have a scum pairing? Earlier you had stated you were ruling out that particular pairing - why is it back?

Individually SK and you are indeed my biggest suspects as I mentioned earlier. I never said I was ruling out Thor-SK, I said I didn't like it. I also don't like Cyberbobscum or charterscum that much, so clearly I'm wrong about something.

And 2 PRs vs. 3 vanilla goons doesn't feel balanced?

It may be worth noting that I consider Gunsmith + my role vs 3 vanilla goons unlikely.

Hmm. Okay.

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I've finished ISOing people and I'm currently leaning towards a Thor-charter scum team with SK-Cyberbob and Thor-SK as close second and third respectively.

Why do you think I'm scum? Why do you think I'm scum with Thor?

Process of elimination. I don't particularly think you're scum (note that the other two pairings I mentioned don't include you) but Thor-charter is the pairing that would make me the least wrong out of all the pairings.

Btw, has anyone else noticed that Cyberbob has done practically no scumhunting today? He votes me for a case he made yesterday (which I rebutted twice and he hasn't supported it since) and names Michel as my partner solely for scumbuddying without proving why our buddying is scum-motivated. In other words, he isn't doing anything except trying to push my lynch with little to no sufficient reasoning. If anyone can give me a town motivation for doing this, please do so, because I'm hard-pressed to think of anything town about this behavior.

Got no comments on this so far, and nothing has changed about Cyberbob since I wrote this. I'm really interested in what other people think about his behavior of today.

I'm fairly sure I've played similarly as town. If you're convinced you've found scum, you tend to do less scumhunting.

Do you have a tendency to be OMGUSy, SaintKerrigan?

@ SPS: Why aren't you liking Charterscum or Cyberbobscum?

Interactions with Fate and gut respectively, as I mentioned earlier.

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Remember that Newbie we played in briefly, SK? I went after your slot and then you replaced in and went after me. I'm getting a similar vibe from the way you behave towards Cyberbob and charter. I'm essentially thinking that you're OMGUSy but unaware of it, which would constitute weak evidence for you being town.

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It's not really that I disagree with them, it's more that I find them unconvincing and open to interpretation.

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@ SPS: How so?

Take for example your point about him not voting. The argument is not unreasonable an sich, maybe he should be voting and maybe it is out of the ordinary, but I don't see how that makes him scum. I don't see the benefit of the action for scum and I don't believe townies are more likely to vote early in Lylo (although I could see them as being more likely to place the first vote). I think his non-voting tells us something about charter, not about his alignment.

I've finished ISOing people and I'm currently leaning towards a Thor-charter scum team with SK-Cyberbob and Thor-SK as close second and third respectively.

Why do you think I'm scum? Why do you think I'm scum with Thor?

Process of elimination. I don't particularly think you're scum (note that the other two pairings I mentioned don't include you) but Thor-charter is the pairing that would make me the least wrong out of all the pairings.

What is it that makes charter my partner and Cyberbob SK's partner. Why is it not likely for the pairs to be Thor/Cyberbob and SK/charter?

I find Cyberbob townier than charter, so that's why I prefer charter in a scum pair. There were 2 quotes I brought up earlier in post 1294 which I felt constituted strong evidence against a SK-charter pairing.

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But it doesn't appear to me that he's keeping his options open. If charter were to vote for anyone other than you, he'd have to come up with some seriously good reasoning for me not to be suspicious of him. And he could still switch if he had voted for you. I agree with you that it's odd, but I disagree that there's a scum motive.

Can we drop this now? I can tell it's not going anywhere.

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SK, what is the scum advantage for not voting someone when they've already committed? The only scenario I can think of in which charterscum would not want to vote for you is charter-SK anyway.

And there's nothing wrong with assumption-based reasoning along the lines of "Assume SK is scum. Then his claim makes perfect sense. Assume SK is town. Then his claim is awkward. Thus SK is more likely to be scum." That's just sound Bayesian reasoning.

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When I look at that example I see scum who 1) was definitely going to vote for you and 2) gave a pretty decent reason for not voting the first time around which suggests strongly he didn't make it up after the fact. I don't see that example as having more than a superficial resemblance to charter's play.

Thor, what it essentially boils down to is that I don't think SK-charter works. So if I assume exactly one of you is scum, there are three pairings left to which I assign a significant positive probability: Thor-charter, Thor-Cyberbob and SK-Cyberbob. As to why I'm suspicious of you: it's mostly gut, combined with healthy doses of process of elimination and behaviour towards Fate that doesn't entirely fit.

P.S. I haven't called someone obv scum and not voted for that person as either alignment. I'm just vote-happy.

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As I see it, charter does something weird, you come up with a lame motivation for it (as if placing a vote is somehow so much more definite than calling him someone scum outright!) and one example which is only superficially similar (note also how quickly Archaebob voted you after that original post, charter's acted very differently). I'd actually argue that this example is at least as far away from charter's play as any of the townie plays you noted as exceptions.

And one example isn't statistically significant anyway.

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Two is not exactly one, Thor. (And Thor-SK is obviously irrelevant in terms of comparing you two.) And Thor-Cyberbob never left play, I just find it least likely among the pairings I find realistic.

What is my behavior towards Fate that doesn't fit?

I just looked again and I bothered to look at the dates this time. You may ignore this.

You haven't been coming up with town motivations for it, either.

Because I know that sometimes people just do strange stuff.

I answered your question, SK, by the bye.

It's much more significant if no one has been able to offer any evidence to the contrary. Consider that the combined number of games the people in this game have played likely nears the hundreds, I'd think that if sufficient proof against the scumtell existed, one of us would be able to find it rather easily. So far, nothing has been offered. Lack of proof against the scumtell is just as good as proof for the scumtell.

All the lack of proof shows is that this behaviour is rare. One example doesn't magically become more significant by failing to find more examples either way. Suppose I'm a researcher who thinks black swans are cannibals. Failing to find non-cannibal black swans is not support of the theory if I simply fail to find black swans.

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Now what should that tell you about Charter's behavior?

Absolutely nothing.

So that's your word for it? "Strange"? It's just "strange" that Charter didn't feel like voting for his #1 suspect who he thinks is positively scum? Why is it a town "strange" instead of a scum "strange"?

It's not a town strange, it's just strange. Charter should have voted for you regardless of his alignment.

Your example does not relate because you assume that you can't find black swans. This is not a problem on Mafiascum. You can find almost every single game ever played on this site and use it for reference. Since I don't think anyone wants to look through that many games, I've narrowed it to the hundreds of games played by the players of this game. So far, in those hundred-odd games, when someone doesn't vote for the person they claim is scum, 100% of the time they're scum, and 0% of the time (with the previously-mentioned exceptions) they're town. At least a hundred games is a good sample size, in my opinion.

If you want to draw the inference "player A isn't voting despite claiming someone is scum" -> "person A is scum", you need to find instances of the former happening. To continue my example: suppose I owned 1000 swans, 999 white non-cannibal ones and 1 black cannibal one. In those 1000 swans, when a swan is black, 100% of the time they're a cannibal, and 0% of the time they're not.

Also, don't forget that votes show belief in your case. Charter's lack of voting shows a lack of belief in his case, which is odd considering he claims I'm scum. If he actually thinks I'm positively scum, why not vote for me to support that belief? Why do you not feel like voting someone you consider to be scum? Even without my example, this just does not look like town behavior.

It also doesn't look like scum behaviour.

Okay, so we're down to gut and process of elimination for why you suspect me. Is there any particular reason you can sort of generally grunt towards as to why I'm higher on the suspect ladder then Kerrigan and/or charter? Conversely/additionally maybe a reason you're more likely to clear one/both of them?

Re: higher on the suspect ladder than Kerrigan, see post 1356. Re: higher than charter, what I said in 1356 regarding Kerrigan actually works for charter too, but more than that I wouldn't even suspect charter if not for partner considerations. I think his interactions with Fate suggest he's town. (That should also answer the question I didn't quote.)

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I guess I should've been more explicit.

Thor, what it essentially boils down to is that I don't think SK-charter works. So if I assume exactly one of you is scum, there are three pairings left to which I assign a significant positive probability: Thor-charter, Thor-Cyberbob and SK-Cyberbob.

You appear in two of these. SK appears in one. If we condition on Thor-SK not being the scum pairing, I'd assign probabilities approximately thusly: Thor-charter 35%, SK-Cyberbob 30%, Thor-Cyberbob 25%, 10% something else, which gives you around 60% chance of being scum as opposed to 30% for SK.

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Excuse me, but I already did that.

I don't even agree with you that the example you linked is the same thing. Even then, it's just one example. Note the plural in my quote.

That's right. So in order to prove that not all black swans are cannibals, you have to find at least one black swan that isn't a cannibal. No one's done it so far. Until proven otherwise, I see no reason not to assume that Charter is scum.

The point of the example is that the 999 swans are irrelevant. And no, I don't need to find a second black swan. One example is not statistically significant.

Has anyone besides me even been questioning why Charter went from a town read on me to a scum read? Or how my claims can take me from town to scum in an instant? Or that the person he's doing this to is a high-profile suspect? Or that this is Mylo?

I've looked at it, but I find his explanation relatively satisfactory (ie. that Pie's death caused him to re-evaluate his suspicions.) And your claim is convenient. I'm not at all surprised that he's going after you for it.

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Huh? I just left out the Thor-Cyberbob pairing in the second quote because it was unlikely to influence my votes (if Cyberbob were to flip scum, I'd go after SK, if you'd flip scum, I'd go after charter.) I didn't mean for it to be a complete listing; I just presented my top pair-suspicions.

That second quote was still accurate right up to your chartervote. Now I'm going to think about whether bussing would be the right move for you.

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Relevant question for Thor: if charter's scum, who's his partner?

P.S. I just realized that I never even said I thought you were more likely to be scum than SK before you asked me why (although I do), so you probably misinterpreted something (or are really good in reading between the lines).

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You gave a listing "in that order" of your scum pair beliefs. I was in the first one, SK was in the second. It took me a lot of work to figure out but I did manage to get the gist of it

Well that was due to Cyberbob looking townier than charter. I mean, SK ranks higher than you in terms of individual scummitude. Although I suppose I gave enough info for you to deduce it anyway.

Someone else ::shrug:: As I've already said, the most likely partner to my mind would be Cyberbob but by this point I wouldn't rule out anyone. I figure I'll try to work that one out if charter flips scum and I'm allowed to live to see the next Day phase, and at that point Michel, you, Kerrigan, and Cyberbob would *all* need reconsideration (excepting the one who was NKed, natch.

Do you really expect to get substantially more information? As I see it, we've got lynch correctly both days, so we should be looking for a pairing now.

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Well, tomorrow we will have the scum night kill, which will change the available suspects, also tomorrow I'd be advocating a no lynch to then narrow the suspect field further and at that point - yes - I would be using that new information to assess my beliefs anew.

Ok, so they kill me/Michel and refuse to kill after that no-lynch. What now? I would be mucho surprised if we got significant extra information.

There's no reason to decide today who I want to lynch at endgame - that's silly to my mind.

Deciding who to lynch on later days is definitely silly in most situations, but I don't think it's silly here.

@SK
Firstly, I was ignoring the possibility of a Thor-SK pairing for the purposes of that question, so you shouldn't read that much into the numbers being thrown again.

Secondly, that's what I used the phrase "individual scummitude". I initially assessed people purely on their play (and of course Fate's play), as I usually do. Then I looked at the pairings to determine which of them made sense in my eyes and how much sense. Then those pairings would obviously translate back to likelihood of being scum, although, as I said, I'm more focussed on pairings currently, so I don't consider those particularly relevant. So in a sense you're "individually scummier" yet less likely to be scum (due to non-buddylike charter-SK interactions).

Addendum: If your combined pairing percentages make Thor 60% scum and Cyberbob 55% scum, why is a Thor-Cyberbob pairing the lowest on your list?

Ignoring for a moment that the numbers are off due to lack of Thor-SK, this doesn't make sense. Thor-Cyberbob doesn't become a more likely pairing because Thor and Cyberbob also make sense paired with others (which is where the 60% and 55% come from).

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I would be surprised to get significant extra info - I will not be surprised to get extra info.

Well, obviously. There's no night choice on the part of the scum that would give us absolutely no info.

Why not? There is no advantage to me saying I will definitely lynch 'X' if 'Y' flips scum at this juncture in the game other then to make it easier for scum to know who should or should not show up at endgame.

My point is that there's no point in catching scum if we fail to lynch his partner tomorrow. That's why we should hunt for pairings. (For example, if the scum are SK-michel, I won't feel bad about not having lynched SK today since we wouldn't have lynched Michel anyway.) Determining who you want to lynch the day after tomorrow is just a side-effect.

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2. I have expressed my most likely pairing but have also said I will reassess tomorrow - I'm not going to change my mind on this point and I don't know why it matters to you that I do...why does it matter to you?

The question I've been asking myself is whether you would bus charter in this situation. I think you can see how your long term planning or lack thereof is relevant to that question.

@ Steam-Powered Shovel: Are you including Fate in your scum-pairings?

I briefly considered a scum group of Fate-Fate-Fate, but then I realized we'd already have won the game in that case. (Although I am obviously taking into account interactions with Fate.)

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Thor, I'm fairly sure you wouldn't bus charter without a having good strategy for the next Day. So yeah, if I know what your plans for tomorrow are in case of a charterscumflip, I'm in a better position to determine how reasonable a strategy bussing is.

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I've made up my mind.

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Vote: charter

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I have nothing of importance to say.

Vote: Thor

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I have nothing of importance to say.

Vote: Thor

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Please address my no lynch plan, please explain the vote on me, and if you're up to it go for the hat trick and comment on your hammer sans explanation yesterday.

I don't see any reason to no lynch: I already know all I need to know. Most likely result is no-lynch or my death. Neither helps us catch scum.

I'm voting for you because I think you're scum. Obviously. I decided Yesterday that Thor-charter was the most likely pairing. I'm not sure what you were expecting from me Today if not a Thorvote.

I didn't explain my hammer Yesterday because my vote made discussion irrelevant. Either I'd be wrong and the game would end straight away or I'd be right and it'd be obvious you're his partner.

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Because I think Cyberbob and Michel are town while I think you're scum.

How does a no lynch not help? If scum don't night kill then we obligate mod to make either us or scum do a kill which is at least a 50/50 that it helps town - if scum does NK then it leaves us a 1/3 chance of lynching scum as opposed to a 1/4.

A cycle of no-lynches and no-kills would just lead to a draw. I'm not prepared to settle for one although I obviously understand that you are.

And no, the scum NKing someone doesn't up the chance of lynching scum from 1/3 to 1/4. We're not lynching at random. A nightkill doesn't narrow down the list of suspects here.

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Evidence? (specifically for Cyberbob as town and me as scum paired with charter and Fate)

Gut, baby! (It is infallible like the pope! (In that it is right when I say it is. Papal infallibility is not as straightforward as you'd think.)) (There was also this quote from Cyberbob which didn't fit with him partnered with Fate in my estimation, but I can't be arsed to find it; it's in one of my earlier posts.)

I fail to see how a night kill doesn't narrow the field of suspects. Could you expand on that - specifically, let's go with the argument that Cyberbob is town, how does a NK not help him narrow down who is or is not scum?

Well, me dying would help Cyberbob in determining that you are the final remaining scum, sure, but that shouldn't be that hard anyway, really. Seems rather insignificant compared to the fact that my death would make it substantially easier for you to avoid the noose. Convincing Michel to go for Cyberbob seems like a much easier task than getting both Michel and Cyberbob to vote for me.

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I would ask you to re-examine your gut read then - it is wrong. Check with your liver and see how it feels.

My liver is unresponsive.

I thought my scum plan was to go for a draw via a no lynch and then not NKing anyone. Which plan do you think I'm angling for here?

No. We wouldn't settle for a draw. I think you want a no-lynch so you can kill me.

Personally I'm left with the 50/50 of you and Cyber, so I'm looking to have a NK either clear me via death or make it clear which one of you is scum so we can map the actual scumbuddy back to charter and Fate.

I don't think anyone here is all too concerned with helping you "find scum".

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::shrug:: Just trying to figure out what you think my master plan is, it keeps changing.

Nuh-uh.

So your current belief is that I want a no lynch so I can kill you and then convince Michel to vote Cyberbob (Michel who has openly stated he doesn't believe it's possible for Cyber and charter to be partners)?

Yes. I agree that the plan is not all that likely to succeed but that is only natural since it is simply very likely that we'll catch you.

My pancreas disagrees.

Your pancreas lies. It's a cesspool of filth.

I want to hear a legitimate reason we shouldn't no lynch, other then that I'm planning to stick with this vote as it clearly appears the best odds available for town.

Feel free to vote for no-lynch. It's the right move for you. But I'm opposed to any plan that reduces the chance that you'll get lynched.

@SPS: what makes you so certain that you would be killed at night?

Because it is the right move for Thor.

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Are you sure you want to no-lynch, Michel? I've given my argument against it (i.e. that it just allows Thor to kill off his biggest detractor), so if that doesn't convince you, then I don't see any reason to drag this Day out any longer as you can force a no-lynch anyway.

As long as you lynch Thor when/if I die.

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You may have a point; I wasn't expecting Cyberbob to be so obviously anti-Thor as he has been Today. But I'm pretty sure you need me dead to win and I don't know whether I can say the same thing about Cyberbob.

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Okay.

As long as you lynch Thor when/if I die.

Unvote, vote: no lynch

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Not quite what I expected, but it doesn't really change anything.

Vote: Thor

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@SPS: you were convinced that you would die during the night, because it would be the right move for Thor. You didn't die during the night, though. Why didn't Thor sent in a kill?

Desperation. As yesterday progressed, it became increasingly clear that we all agreed Thor was the lynch. I don't think it was the right move for Thor regardless, but I've disagreed with people on more fundamental issues; Thor could well have felt that he needed to no-kill to shake things up a bit.

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Ugh. Did Thor really get you with his lame no-kill, Michel? You're really undermining my position that killing me was the right move here.

The No Kill makes me far less suspicious of Thor. Thor knows that I would be unwilling to No Lynch again (I've made sure to make that clear). By No Killing, he must convince two players to follow his vote to a mislynch, rather then one. Killing Cyberbob and hoping to convince me to vote SPS would probably have been his safest bet.

He only needs to convince one person to keep him alive. Don't you think Thorscum would settle for a draw (or at least would have settled prior to your last post)?

On the other hand, a No Kill makes perfect sense from the point of view of SPS. Both me and Cyberbob are rather uncertain quantities, and by killing one of us, he risks Thor being able to convince the other. OTOH, we both have expressed a certain willingness to lynch Thor, and I have announced that I won't be willing to No Lynch again, so by No Killing, he would feel a Thor lynch would be certain.

There are several things wrong with this:
1) a no-kill breaks the narrative. It makes people stop and reconsider their position. Considering how anti-Thor Cyberbob was looking at the end of Yesterday, a Cyberbobkill wouldn't have. That's what I would've done if I'd been scum in this situation.
2) If I'm scum, I definitely want to win this. That means getting both of you on my side against Thor. Having both of you alive means I risk Thor convincing either of you for the draw and thus makes the Thorlynch less certain.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

It's a reasonable argument, sure, although not conclusive in of itself.

What confuses me is the asymmetry which has suddenly appeared between Cyberbob and me. I get the feeling Cyberbob and I were in a pretty similar situation going into the Night: both very anti-Thor and Michel seemed to think we were town. I was comparatively more anti-Thor, but not excessively so. Yet the no-kill clears Cyberbob and implicates me.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

To summarize: after an SPS nightkill, I would be far more likely to vote Thor then after Cyberbob was killed.

While I don't doubt that this is true, I have to question to what extent a hypothetical Shovelscum would've been aware of it.

Cyberbob, do you really think Michel would've voted for me if he were scum? His vote for me eliminated any lingering doubts I had on that front.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

A lot of his early reads were meh and the juggling act he performed when Kerrigan and I were pressing him was odd to watch (Kerrigan is most scummy but Thor/Cyber is the most likely scum pair, ect. ect.) and seemed to change every time we asked him about it.

Unless you're implying that it actually did chance (it did not)or just want to discredit me, I don't see why you'd bring it up like this.

I also will admit I used some of his suspicion of charter to help me make my final choice that day, as I didn't like how charter was his 2nd suspect (or suspect paired on most likely scumpair, or whatever) and yet he never pressed charter really at all.

I didn't do a whole lot of pressing yesterday. I was actually waiting to see who you'd vote for most of yesterday, just fyi.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

No need to keep up the pretense, Thor.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Sorry charter, I'm used to scum winning in this type of endgame.

1) Did you like the setup?

2) Did you like the flavor?

3) Did you like the game overall?

1. The set-up forces the scum to either get the PGO lynched or sacrifice a scum to get him killed. Not a big fan of that type of role personally. (In my own modding I always let scum win endgames of that sort to avoid it.) Other than that, yes, nice set-up.
2. I don't really read the flavour.
3. Yes. It was a very enjoyable experience.

@Thor, there wasn't a case for you being scum. Cyberbob bought the distancing and you were the only logical suspect left. And my gut read was obviously made up. You played a good game, just not an obviously townie one. And it really didn't change.

In retrospect I'm still not sure what the best play for either of us at that stage was.

You definitely made the correct play there. It didn't give you too much leeway as scum but it still allows for SK's role to be verified.

@SK, I do think your "superscumtell" has some validity, but I still disagree with pretty much every argument you presented in favour of it. So I would've acted somewhat differently as town there.