Mini 934 - Troubles at Smiths&Catharts (Game Over!)

[MichelSableheart]

I have received my rolepm, and am reading the game now.

[MichelSableheart]

I have read the first 15 pages, and don't have time for more, unfortunately.

I'm keeping my reads to myself till I have read the entire thread. I'm very interested to see how day 1 ended in a Pomegranate lynch though.

I'm not sure when I'll find the time to finish my complete readthrough, unfortunately. I'm affraid some very busy days may be coming up. In the meantime, any questions for me, anything I should be aware of?

[MichelSableheart]

Of most relevance in my mind is you simply getting up to speed and offering a fresh glance at where we were and where we are. As a general question in and amongst that work effort, I would like you to clarify your position as regards Ythan/Locke and how your opinions coincide or disagree with theirs.

Basing my initial reply to this solely on the first 15 pages. Therefore, only remarks about Ythan thus far.

Ythan tends to post a lot, part of which is actually game relevant. It's annoying to read him, though, especially when there are lurkers in the game. It especially makes it didfficult to determine how often everyone is posting. Because of this, my notes have three players listed as "not very active, check for lurking".

I can see where his early vote for Inquisitor was coming from (ISO 44-45), but don't think what he listed was actually indicative of scum. I agreed with his vote for Ray (Ray wasn't really helping, so others claiming he's playing to his scum meta is reason enough for a vote) and I really liked his attack on NS. His pressure on Scrambles was justified.

Overall, I found myself mostly agreeing with Ythan over the beginning of the game, nowhere significantly disagreeing with his opinions.

Time to continue reading the thread.

[MichelSableheart]

I have now read all of day 1. Unfortunately, it is bedtime for me now, so the last 4 pages will have to wait. I expect a busy day tomorrow, so my analysis of the entire game will probably only arrive on friday.

This game has seen quite a bit of trouble with inactivity. The mod says he'll prod after 72 hours, or after 48 hours on request. If we request prods whenever someone goes 48 hours without posting, we can reduce the time players are allowed to not post by a full day. Therefore:

Mod: prod on Sotty, please

Finally opinions on Ythan and Locke's opinions of day 1. Expect further explanation of why I actually agree in my analysis friday:
As I said, I liked Ythan's NS vote, so I agreed with the pressure on him for lurking here while posting in another game. He may have been a bit rough about it though.
As for Ythan's vote on Sotty: it's poorly explained, and I even missed it in my notes. I don't know his reasons, but I believe a bit of pressure on Sotty was good at the time.
I like the fact that shortly after his Sotty vote, Ythan finally explained his suspicions against both Ray and NS a bit further.
Hit vote on Kthx is back to his previous NS suspicions, which I still agree with
Overall opinion on Ythan: I agree with his opinions, but he is a nightmare to read, and probably even worse to play with. However, if I may believe the Title Fairy Thread, that is part of his meta.

On Locke:
I agree with Locke's analysis of TCC's play. It was terrible. He continually kept making excuses without giving any content.
Part of this may be hindsight, but I very strongly disagreed with his case against Pomegranate in the entire thread. I really didn't see anything scummy from her, and she was far less of an active lurker then some other players in the thread. The only thing that's remotely reasonable in his case is the statement about Pom refusing to actually defend her meta read.
Locke's vote of Kthx was not very well supported, but Kthx vote of TCC was rather suspicious there. This is a vote I can agree with.
Conclusion on Locke: I very strongly disagreed with the Pom wagon.

[MichelSableheart]

Request Extension 5/6

Even after I'm read up, I would like to have more then 3 days to discuss my opinions with the other players.

I would like to point out that Ktx had already claimed Vanilla Townie in post #387. His claim is no new information. It is interesting to see that he mentioned it again just before replacing out though. Perhaps he wanted to make sure his replacement didn't forget he had already claimed?

As I said before, full opinions on the game will come tomorrow. I haven't read the entire game yet.

[MichelSableheart]

Mod: prod troll please

Should have requested this yesterday, but got confused between Ray and SaintKerrigan when checking activity.

[MichelSableheart]

Apologies. I misjudged the working load of several courses I'm taking at the moment. I will have read the entire thread by today, but I won't be able to complete my entire analysis.

[MichelSableheart]

Mod: Prod Socrates, please

I have now read the entire thread. Comparing my opinions to Locke's on day 2. Not much to comment on here:

I don't agree with his statement that the nightkill was probably supposed to not make much sense. I plan to actually look into the nightkill as part of my upcoming analysis.

I agree with his statement that Pome was more guilty of active lurking then CSL, but don't at this point in time belief that Pome was active lurking. I don't agree with Locke's claim that she knew Pome was taking Ray's meta out of context. Reading Ray's post on this topic, he said that all games Pome played with him were not relevant for his meta. However, Pome wouldn't have experience with Ray outside of those games, so would have no way to check whether his claims are correct.

My issue is that by asking Michel his opinions on the players he replaced kinda gives him a running start on the game something early and quick to comment to make him look active. It doesn't appear like he has actually read all the game either so I am not sure how he can agree or disagree with anything his predecessors have done, but that aside, it was strange that you would want to help him ease into the game and not others. It was just a strange feeling I got that I am finding hard to articulate, it twigged my gut.

When I say I agree/disagree, I'm stating how I feel about those actions in that context.

About my analysis: I unfortunately don't even have the time to make a start now. Hopefully later today, but I can't make guarantees, unfortunately.

[MichelSableheart]

I believe we can trust powerroles to claim when they feel they have information that could break the game. I believe the information scum gains from a massclaim is far more significant for them then the additional info town would game. We're not massclaiming yet.

---

This game has suffered a large amount of inactivity and a lot of replacements. Various players have been accused of active lurking. I would not be surprised if several scum took the opportunity to hide in that group. Therefore, I'll start my analysis by looking at activity. I am especially on the lookout for intentional behaviour.

Pie_is_good/Kthxbye/Nobody Special

Nobody Special posted in bursts. He made several posts in a day, then went a couple of days without posting before posting again. Content wise, his posts aren't that great. His first posts are made during the RVS, and don't seem to contain any significant accusations. He ends the game arguing with Ythan over his activity. In between, he makes a single relevant attack, which is relatively little for a week of play. Overall, he was active, never needed to be prodded, but gave virtually no content whatsoever. It's very well possible that he was trying to stay under the radar.

There can be no complaints about how often Ktx posts. He almost always posts once every two days, the only exceptions being night and V/LA. He requests replacement before a long period of absence actually prevents him from playing. There can't really be any complaining about his content either: he has no problems with giving his opinion.

Pie hasn't been around long enough to significantly judge his activity.

Saint Kerrigan/RayFrost

Ray's activity came and went in waves. He is either very active, posting multiple times a day, or he simply isn't there. He was prodded multiple times, and also made several posts promising content. In the RVS, his participation was reasonable, with a clash with NS and an accusation of Scrambles. After that, though, his contribution completely disappeared for a while. The most relevant thing I can find in that period is that he accuses Ythan of active lurking, which is a bit hypocrite. Later on, his content improves again, with defence against Pom meta accusations, and an attack against Ktx TCC vote. After that, he effectively completely dissappears, posting no content for a week before being replaced. However, that second period of inactivity and subsequent replacing out was sitewide, so it's unlikely that was done particulary for this game. Still, there was a period where he was active lurking.

SaintKerrigan has replaced in only recently, posted content. No complaints about him.

Sotty7

Sotty posted often enough. She started posting daily, then started skipping some days, but she was never at risk of being prodded. She also brought up a reasonable amount of original content. I don't consider her to be active lurking.

Thor665

Thor's activity was by far the best of the game, especially early on. He posted very regulary, even for this game, but not so often it would make it difficult for others to catch up. Most of his posts contain relevant content. He's definately not lurking.

Zorblag/Cyberbob

Cyberbob never confirmed. He never posted in the game. I highly doubt that was done intentionally to help achieve his wincondition. He was inactive, not lurking.

Troll started the game extremely slowly. His first post with content was made 5 days after replacing in. Still, after getting involved in the game, he posted reasonable content at a regular basis. Until he effectively completely disappeared from the game more then a week ago, that is. That disappearance seems to be sitewide though. No lurking here.

Fate/CSL/Sajin/SFG

SFG was active enough for the few days she was here. Her content was at a level that could be expected during the RVS.

Sajin replaced in as a favour to SFG, but never got into the game. He made two posts stating he was reading up, then requested replacement. This seems to me to be the behaviour that is expected from someone who took on a game he didn't have the time for. He was inactive, not lurking.

CSL to me read virtually the same. He replaced in because he needed a replacement for his own game, not because he was interested in playing a mini normal. He has slightly more content then Sajin, but doesn't even attempt to make it appear like he's participating. I really don't see him as trying to stay under the radar in the hope of helping his wincondition. He seems to be simply not interested. Inactive, not lurking.

Fate is active enough, posting regulary and posting content. Overall, I don't believe this slot has been active lurking.

Socrates/TheCheshireCat

After march 10th, TCC went for a period of 8 days werehe only posted to anounce V/LA or to promise content. Before that, he posted more often, but didn't provide any actual content. The best suspicions I can find from him are in post #219. Besides that, he only pressured inactives. Very telling for how I preceived him is how I have marked down post #368 in my notes: "TCC going to be V/LA for a day (so what, you don't post content anyway)." In my opinion, it is very well possible that TCC was avoiding commenting to stay out of the spotlight.

Socrates seems to be posting often enough. His content isn't great, but is acceptable, especially considering how much effort it costs to actually read this game from beginning to end.

MichelSableheart/Locke Lamora/Ythan

As I said before, Ythan posts a lot. When he replaced out, he had made more then 1/3 of the total posts in the game. Most of his posts are oneliners, and quite often they are not hugely relevant. In between those huge number of posts, there are some relevant thoughts though. If I may believe the title fairy thread, this is being true to his meta. I doubt he chose his behaviour to get an advantage in this particular game.

Locke posted regulary, and brought up his own content. I don't believe he can be accused of active lurking.

I myself have posted regulary. I haven't provided much content yet though, due to the fact that writing posts such as this one takes time.

Copper

Copper posted regulary, Copper posted content, Copper wasn't lurking.

Pomegranate

Ignoring her V/LA during weekends, Pomegranate posted at a very regular basis. If she was lurking, it would be because she avoided posting actual content. Reading her posts though, I don't believe this is the case. Her play during RVS was reasonable. Her main attacks after that were for active lurking, which is an acceptable reason to be suspicious, especially in a game situation such as we had during day 1, with lots of replacement and inactivity. Later on, when the pressure was on her, she started attacking for other reasons as well. Overall, her content wasn't great, but it was better then some of the other players in this game.

Henry Hathaway/ScramblesTheDeathDealer

Scrambles posted daily till march 11th. After that, he posted once more, then had to replace out. He didn't give a whole lot of content though. Most of his posts are social chatter. The main thing he did was attack NS. Judging solely on his posts (not his flip), he could well be considred active lurking.

Henri was active when he replaced in, then effectively disappeared. The only thing he contributed was an attack on Ktx, who had replaced NS. If he was trying to fly under the radar, I don't think he would have posted as much as he did when he replaced in. His inactivity seems genuine to me.

charter/Inquisitor JL

Inquisitor started of reasonably active, then disappeared. After march 8th, he only posted status updates, then requested replacement. His content when he did post was good, so it seems to me that he simply got busier, tried to remain in the game, but couldn't. I don't believe he was lurking.

Charter posted often enough. The content he can deliver is hampered by the fact that he doesn't want to read Ythan. Besides that, I'm happy with what he provides, and don't believe he was lurking.

---

Out of the players still alive, this analysis causes me to be suspicious of Pie, Socrates and to a lesser extend SaintKerrigan due to the active lurking of their predecessors.

For the bandwagon analysis, it is important to note that Pom's contributions were better then those of NS and TCC. Personally, I liked her contributions better then those of RayFrost as well.

For nightkill analysis, I'm noting that Scrambles could be considered active lurking, and that Henri's behaviour after march 21th could be mistaken for active lurking as well.

---

I will look into the major bandwagons next time I can seriously work on this game.

[MichelSableheart]

@Pie and Sotty: replacements and inactivity have played a major part in this game, with a lot of players having been accused of active lurking at one point or another. By looking at activity first, I can better judge those accusations of active lurking.

I've made a begin with my bandwagon analysis, but won't finish it today.

Everyone (except Zorblag) posted in the last 48 hours, no prods to be requested.

[MichelSableheart]

Today has been a very busy day, and tomorrow looks busy too. I'll probably only be able to post something relevant wednesday. Apologies for that.

I am aware that I have not produced much relevant content. I beg you to be patient a while longer.

[MichelSableheart]

@Michel - you (rightly) dinged Ray on his relative participation. But then claimed Saint Starcraft Lady as having no problems yet off of something like two semi-relevant posts posted over the course of not even a week. Yeah...within that timeframe it's a solid number of posts but it seems like the sample size is too small to be making any claims on her participation quality at this point - thoughts?

In the case of SK, he posted a reasonable amount of content for the amount of time he has been in the game. I admit that the sample size is small, which makes the conclusion weaker. But based on the information available to me, I believe SK isn't active lurking.

I dislike Mitchel's obsession with activity, especially in this game. Unless he thinks there are 9 scum in this game, he isn't going to be going anywhere productive with it.

Huh? If you read my post on activity, you'll notice that I concluded that only 3 playerslots could have been active lurking in an attempt to avoid suspicion. Your statement feels like a blatant disregard of my actual post.

I thought we weren't doing a massclaim? And that replacements were still catching up? I'm very annoyed with seeing Sotty claim, though I do find it believable.

With Sotty having claimed, (and Ktx having claimed before) massclaim suddenly became much better IMO. Keeping powerroles hidden isn't really a concern with an info role out in the open. Unless there are serious objections, I'm going to claim next.

[MichelSableheart]

As I promised, bandwagon analysis is next. The bandwagons as I see them were:

• Early in the day, Ythan was pressured on his meta of posting much.
  
• There was a small wagon against Scrambles around post #100.
  
• There was a significant wagon against RayFrost.
  
• A bandwagon against NS/Kthx developed, which got to 3 votes.
  
• Around the original deadline, there was a bandwagon against TCC.
  
• Again a bandwagon against Kthx.
  
• Pomegranate became the deadline lynch.
  
• Day 2 saw a bandwagon against Fate
  
• and a bandwagon against Copper.

I will only mention very important players on the bandwagon, and things that feel off.

The early bandwagon against Ythan

The early pressure on Ythan seems to have been used to get the game going. The main topic of discussion was how often Ythan posts. There are several players involved.

Copper starts the discussion, by arguing that Ythan's behaviour is anti-town, because it prevents less active players from keeping up. Considering Ythan's meta, this is arguing against deaf ears, but it does feel honest.

TCC takes a very interesting position. He mentions that Ythan's behaviour will mainly cause other players to get annoyed and focus on Ythan instead of finding scum. Before saying that, he is stimulating that reaction with comments such as "you talk a lot irl, don't you?" and "lol, this is going to be a long game". This is by far the most scummy reaction on the wagon.

Nobody Special is simply complaining about Ythan's behaviour, and waits for the discussion to reach another, more useful subject. He takes a very reactionary stance here. I'm not really liking it.

SFG argues against the Ythan wagon, claiming that there's likely scum pushing for the easy mislynch. None of the attacks feel like pushing a mislynch to me, but considering the overall feel of the discussion, I like the sentiment.

Then Scrambles actually voted Ythan "for being annoying", which caused the second bandwagon of the game.

Wagon against Scrambles

This wagon started of when Scrambles voted Ythan for reasons unrelated to Ythan being scum. Scrambles being questioned on that vote is a logical reaction there.

The only thing that feels unnatural in the following bandwagon is Ray. He argues that Scrambles vote isn't very scummy, then later summarizes Scrambles as "pushing for an Ythan lynch for reasons unrelated to Ythan being scum" (my wording). He never explains why town is likely to do this. Thor questions him on this, but he doesn't answer, mainly due to the "funny posts" going on at the time.

Wagon against RayFrost

There seem to be two main reasons behind the wagon against RayFrost. The first is that he doesn't match his town meta / matches his scum meta. The second reason is that when the wagon happened, he wasn't contributing (which I agree with, as I mentioned in my activity analysis). One of the comments that really struck me in this regard is post #206 by Ray. There, he basically states "true, I'm not contributing, but at least I'm posting". Posting without contributing is the definition of active lurking.

Ythan starts commenting on Ray as early as post #148, mentioning that Ray seems out of character. He repeats this in #199, claiming that Ray is playing different from his usual town meta. These comments eventually lead to a vote of Ray in #227 because Ythan doesn't really have anything else. As soon as something more suspicious comes along (NS vote for Ray), the vote is withdrawn again. He is following the crowd a bit, but his vote matches his earlier comments.

Copper is the one who really starts this wagon. He votes Ray for not commenting in post #178, and backs that up with an actual attack in post #190. Solid reasoning, good suspicions.

Pomegranate also joins in early (#198), claiming to match Ray's behaviour to his scum meta she experienced in earlier games, plus the fact that he simply doesn't contribute. Combined with Ythan's statement that Ray isn't playing to his town meta, this is an excellent reason to be suspicious. This vote is further backed up in post #226.

TCC shows verbal support for the Ray wagon. His reasoning doesn't really hold against questioning by Thor, though. Post #216 strikes me as mainly unhelpful, post #277 shows that TCC didn't actually believe Ray to be scum, but mainly considers Ray to be antitown. Weak reasoning to support a popular wagon is mild reason to be suspicious of TCC.

NS votes Ray for non contribution after having been absent himself for quite a while. This vote feels like he's joining the easy bandwagon, and is therefore very suspicious.

Sotty joins the Ray bandwagon very late (she votes in #338), when discussion has been focussing on others for quite a while. Her reasoning is that Ray is still not providing content. This vote doesn't strike me as very helpful.

Bandwagon against NS/Kthx

The bandwagon against Nobody Special begins when NS votes Ray for lack of participation in post #234, when he was extremely guilty of that himself. Several players mention this. Ythan attacks him over lurking, stating how in a different game they're playing together, NS is posting. NS flips out completely over this, deciding to replace out. Nothing and noone on this bandwagon feels of to me.

Bandwagon against TCC

As I stated in my activity analysis, TCC was providing horribly little relevant content. Especially his announcements of V/LA for short periods of time when not posting content in between them were horribly scummy.

Troll is the first to mention this, voting TCC as early as post #354. Note that this is the second vote on TCC, next to Inquisitor's random vote on post #9.

Thor starts pressuring a TCC wagon around post #468. His reasoning is good, TCC was scummy, but it also feels a bit like a last effort deadline wagon. It would have been far better if the attack had come about 100 posts earlier, when TCC first stated V/LA after not having contributed in a long time.

CSL's vote for TCC in post #523 is horrible. It completely lacks any reasoning whatsoever, which is unacceptable for an L-2 vote after 20 pages of discussion. Nevertheless, I don't really find the vote scummy, because I don't see why scum would be more likely then town to vote that way. Allthough the vote does bring the lynch one vote closer, it does not make the lynch more likely. Such poor reasoning will draw attention to the player using it (and therefore away from the player that scum would want to have mislynched), and will make players considering to vote Ktx rethink if they really want to be on a bandwagon with such poor support. I'm not saying it is good play, but I'm considering this vote a neutral tell.

At this point in time, Copper is starting to defend TCC because of the speed of the bandwagon. I must say I can't really agree with that analysis. The votes from Inquisitor and Troll had been there for a while. The vote of Thor was a direct result of TCC announcing V/LA without posting content again. Locke only just replaced in, and voted a full two days after Thor's vote. If the deadline hadn't been moved, it would have been only a couple of hours before the actual deadline. The only vote that could actually be considered speedy was that of CSL, and I have already commented on that.

The vote on the TCC wagon that actually feels scummy to me is that of Kthx. That vote really feels like voting for the popular bandwagon because it is the popular bandwagon rather then because he actually believes TCC is scum. Furthermore, it is an L-1 vote without a warning that it is one. This post very much feels like Kthx is scum trying to get a mislynch, which makes it more likely that TCC is town.

Second Bandwagon against Kthx

The second bandwagon against Kthx also doesn't have much that stands out. It's Henry, Ray and Locke voting, with Copper and Thor also having questioned Kthx vote.

Considering how scummy the vote of Kthx actually was, I am really surprised to see that this wagon didn't develop into more of a bandwagon, perhaps even a lynch. I find it especially remarkable that Sotty #549 doesn't comment on the Kthx vote. Also standing out is Copper sticking to a Ray vote when it has been rather difficult to find consensus, especially considering their remark that there is at least one, and possibly two scum in CSL, Locke, Kthx. Later on, they vote CSL over Kthx "because they want to see what develops from the discussion between Thor and Henri". That extensive debate Thor and Henri had over Henri's suspicions may have helped to get attention away from Kthx too.

Bandwagon on Pomegranate, develops into lynch

The bandwagon against Pome came almost out of nothing. There had been some comments on her by Ray, Locke and Sotty, but there hadn't really been much discussion on her. In fact, even after having read page 24, I still had trouble seeing why on earth Pome had been lynched.

There were two main accusations: Lack of content, and the fact that she misrepresented Ray's meta. Both accusations were rediculous. Pome had been far less guilty of active lurking then NS, TCC or even RayFrost. The claim that she didn't come with a scumlist is also simply incorrect, because her #474 clearly stated who she suspected, and why. The accusation that she misrepresented Ray's meta holds a bit more water, but I still believe in what I stated in post #803.

The bandwagon was started by two players. Locke started pressuring Pome on her metaread in #522, and got more serious about his suspicions in #602. He states that he wants to see her lynched in #615, and actually votes as third on the wagon in #630.

Sotty first brings up the lack of a scumlist in #525, dismissing the active lurkerhunting as useless. She continues this line of reasoning in #549, calling Pome commenting on Ray's lack of content hypocritical. She is the first to vote Pom in #612. I disagree with her reasoning, but there seems to be a logical development of suspicion here.

Thor's vote for Pomegranate in #618 feels very uncharacteristic of him. He lists the other possibilities, but completely ignores the Kthx wagon even though it was the second most popular at the time. He also doesn't comment at first on why Pomegranate is actually scum. He later claims to agree with the "active lurking" accusation, but makes no attempt whatsoever to actually verify this. In particular, I don't like how he calls a vote for active lurking on Ray as bad as the completely unexplained CSL vote. His is a very suspicious vote.

Copper is clearly opposed to the Pom wagon in #620. My main complaint about them is that they pushed for the wrong alternative. By instead joining the Kthx wagon, they could have caused a lynch they actually agreed to regain momentum again. Now, they were forced to join a wagon they did not agree with simply to guarantee a lynch.

Kthx vote is very poorly supported. It is again a simple agreeing with the claim that Pome was active lurking, without any evidence to back it up. The fact that deadline was approaching is an excuse here though.

Ray unvotes without any attempt to guarantee a lynch one way or another.

The fact that this lynch has Copper, Zorblag and Charter on it, when all of them have significantly questioned whether Pome was scummy or not, is very telling IMO. I'm really disappointed in this result. I feel that a Kthx lynch had been a far better possibility, and even a TCC lynch would have been more informative.

The day 2 wagons

Both bandwagons today feel rather poor. During day 1, neither Copper nor Fate's predecessors did anything that was indicative of them being scum IMO.

Looking at the actual votes, I see little reasoning why they are made on scum:

Kthx vote on Copper for nightkill speculation is ridiculous. Scum will have had a reason for their kill. If we can figure out what that reason was, we can gain a distinct advantage.

Socrates #708 & #709 are very much about why Socrates is town, and very little about why Fate is actually scum.

Copper's vote for Fate is mainly the result of their suspicion of CSL, over something which I believe wasn't at all indicative of being scum (see analysis of TCC wagon).

Sotty's vote for Fate is better, but still doesn't take into account the information gained from day 1 in any way.

Charters vote for Copper is better reasoned, but also seems to hinge far more on perceived scummyness then actual analysis of actions.

Fate suspicions of Copper seem to be far too dependant on Socrates being scum. Coppers defense of TCC was entirely reasonable IMO.

---

I am still planning to look at the nightkill, plus what I can find in players ISO. I feel I have gathered enough info now to make an informed vote, though.

Nobody Special combined active lurking with easy bandwagoning. He was succeeded by KthxBye, who continued the easy bandwagoning by making the most suspicious vote of day 1 and being on the Pom wagon on rather weak reasons.

Vote: Pie_is_good

I also have reasons to be suspicious of Socrates because of the behaviour of TCC, of Thor for his vital role in the Pom lynch and of SaintKerrigan because of Ray's behaviour towards the deadline.

[MichelSableheart]

What do you see as the worse case scenario that scum will do if we don't claim?

The worst case scenario would be that they manage to kill Sotty, and then are able to get out of a lynch with a fakeclaim they couldn't have made if they had to worry about investigation by a gunsmith.

The main reason I want to see a massclaim though is that I simply don't want to give them a night to discuss what fakeclaims they're going to use now that they know there is a gunsmith about. They are far more likely to make mistakes if they have to claim right now.

[MichelSableheart]

by the way - what's a 'characteristic' Thor vote? I'm quite serious with this question

Based on reading this game, I would characterize you as a player who is quite serious, uses a lot of questions to establish an opinion and who is concerned about players actually voting for reasons that are indicative of the votee being scum. I found nothing like that in the post where you voted Pom.

came at a time when I was clearly against the Kthx wagon and had become convinced that the TCC wagon was scum driven.

your comment about the TCC wagon being scumdriven I can find in the post where you vote. However, that post contains nothing whatsoever about the Kthx wagon. Reading you in ISO from the point where you voted TCC, I see you strongly questioning Henri's reasons for voting, but I do not see how that means you are against the wagon as a whole. In fact, ISO 63 and 64 contain some serious questioning of Kthx, on topics that weren't mentioned in your discussion with Henry.

As far as me not having issue with Pom's active lurk? Eh, I feel I had been fairly vocal about not liking her attitude towards actually supplying information and had multiple times pressed her for info and also multiple times expressed dissatisfaction with her contributions.

Did you? In my summary of the game, the post where you voted Pom is the first of yours where I have listed you as significantly commenting on her. Reading you in ISO, I find (ISO) posts #57 and #58, which were made just before Pom posted her scumlist in #474. If you weren't satisfied with that scumlist, I would have expected you to question her further. Instead, you don't comment on Poms behaviour after that till the post where you vote her. Can you please back up your statement that you were fairly vocal about her activity with post numbers?

As far as the Kthx stuff I believe you, as others did then, are taking a newbie aggressiveness and painting it in a scummy light. Could you at least assess why you don't think the aggressiveness is newbie oriented?

NS was posting virtually no content. The only thing he did was voting Ray for not contributing, which tells me that he knew that not posting content was a scummy thing to do. So why did he do it anyway? His responses to the lurking accusations (ignoring those that question his vote for RayFrost, getting angry at Ythan without actually responding to the accusation) are far more likely to come from someone who is intentionally lurking, IMO.

Kthx stands out because of his votes. His TCC vote seems mainly intended to get a lynch. He opens with the statement that we need a flip, and only follows with some accusations as an afterthought. It contained no warning whatsoever that it was an L-1 vote. The whole post strikes me as someone who is very eager to get a lynch. For newbie scum, this eagerness is easily explained, because a mislynch (I think I can safely rule out the possibility of Kthx and TCC being scum together. Kthx eagerness was genuine) would help bring their victory closer and brings them to the "interesting" part of the game. For a newbie vanilla townie, such eagerness is far less likely. A lynch brings them to night, when they can't play. Also, because vanilla townies have no information whatsoever, they tend to be more doubtful in my experience, and very worried about making mistakes. Kthx "any lynch will do" mentality is not something I associate with newbie town.

His vote on Pomegranate is less suspicious, simply because the deadline was looming. Still, it felt poorly reasoned, without actually looking for evidence. It seemed he was mainly following popular opinion. His first few posts show that Kthx is able to formulate his own opinions. In my experience, newbie townies who can think for themselves are slightly more likely to get convinced of their own right, and tunnel as a result, whereas newbie scum tends to be more flexible with their opinions because they are happy with any mislynch.

(Michel - do you still like the contribution level from this slot?).

Why are you using the word 'still' in regards to the entire slot? I believe I have clearly stated that I didn't like the contribution level from RayFrost, and that this was a reason for me to be slightly suspicious of SaintKerrigan. I am still satisfied with the amount of content SK has delivered. He seems to have run into the same problems I ran into: there is a lot of info to digest, which makes it difficult to form opinions. He comments on what's going on, and I understand where his opinions come from.

[MichelSableheart]

@Thor: Ah, I missed your "Ray is grasping at straws" post. If you felt two out of three votes were poorly reasoned, I can understand why you felt against the bandwagon as a whole. That does remove part of my suspicion against you. What do you think about Locke's argument that Kthx overjustified his vote though?

@SaintKerrigan: The main reason I'm satisfied with your content level is that your claim of "I have read the entire game, but have trouble getting a grip on it" matches how I felt after reading the game. About comparing you to your predecessor: Ray posted more, but posted less content, especially in the period between the RVS and Kthx TCC vote.

If massclaiming is not an option, how does everyone feel about claiming "gun" or "no gun"? That should allow most protective roles to remain hidden, while also allowing Sotty to find scum by detecting liars.

[MichelSableheart]

If massclaiming is not an option, how does everyone feel about claiming "gun" or "no gun"? That should allow most protective roles to remain hidden, while also allowing Sotty to find scum by detecting liars.

I don't think this would be a problem, and I'm much more willing to do this. Given one kill last night though, I'm not entirely sure how beneficial it would be. Moreover, the fact that there even is a Gunsmith should give us all doubts at to whether all scum killing roles solely have guns in their possession.

It's using flavour argumentation in a normal game, but given that we are in a gun factory, I believe it's far more likely if the scum actually have guns then knives or poison, for example. And not everyone who owns a gun uses it to kill every night. I think you'll see a number of "gun" claims.

Fate, it seems to me you are suffering from tunnelvision. Socrates vote of Kthx and subsequent unvote does not feel like distancing to me, simply because there was no pressure behind it. The explanation of "Sorry, Fate is more scummy then Kthx" is far more likely then distancing. Both scum or town could have made that vote, regardless of the two of them being scumpartners. Also, as others have pointed out, being against a massclaim does not automatically equal scummy.

As for claiming "gun or no gun," I'm not sure I really see the point in doing this. Scum are highly unlikely to claim that they have a gun (unless they wish to fakeclaim a role that has a gun), and if a town player has a gun, they must either explain why their role has a gun (which will likely mean claiming), or they must lie about having a gun to try and stay hidden (and hope Sotty doesn't check on them and discover the lie). The only people we can catch with this technique are the liars (as was already stated), and I believe both scum and town would have motivation to lie about having a gun. If the town gun chooses not to lie, then we have outed a power role that has a gun, giving the mafia another potential nightkill target.

In other words, I don't see us gaining much useful information by claiming gun or no gun, and the drawback of potentially outing another power role makes the idea even less appealing to me.

You know, that is pretty poor reasoning.

First of all, Lynch all Liars exists for a reason. If we decide to massclaim gun or no gun, town definately shouldn't lie. The main reason for this claim would be to force scum to take a stance now: are they going to claim they have a gun, making some future fakeclaims impossible? Or are they going to claim they don't have a gun, and risk being outed by Sotty?

Secondly, where are you getting the idea that town would have to explain why they have a gun immediately? The whole idea of claiming gun or no gun is that we don't have to claim actual roles, and therefore are able to keep scum doubting about the type of role the player claiming gun actually has. That can vary from pure vigilante who failed to kill last night for some reason, to what effectively boils down to a miller.

Furthermore, if townplayers who own a gun claim so now, they avoid Sotty the trouble of having to investigate them. Sotty would be able to focus on actually detecting the liars. If she would receive a gun result on someone who claimed not to have a gun, that player would be guaranteed scum.

I really believe we should massclaim gun or no gun. Pie, Thor ignored and Fate were in favour of massclaiming, so I think they are in favour of this claim too. Cyberbob completely ignored the question, so I must assume he has no serious objections, just like Copper. We don't have much time left anymore, especially if we want to do this popcorn style. That's 4 in favour, 1 against, 2 neutral. Only if Sotty, Socrates and charter all are against this could we end up in a tie. Fate, if one of them doesn't object in their next post, you should claim whether you have a gun or not, and state who should claim after you.

Also, SK is probably making too big a deal over the perceived contradiction in Pie's behaviour. There is no inherent contradiction between "I am not opposed to an SK bandwagon" and "I don't want to vote SK at this moment in time". Still, the fact that Pie mentioned there were reasons to not be opposed to an SK bandwagon is unusual. Usually, "I am not opposed to a bandwagon" means that you have no significant reasons to believe that player is town.

[MichelSableheart]

Sotty and Copper already claimed, so that just leaves me.

I do have a gun.

Haven't got time for more at the moment, unfortunately.

[MichelSableheart]

@mod

your votecount says that Fate only has one vote on her, but lists two players voting. Is that a mistake?

Yes. Mistake corrected - Cathart

I'm inclined to believe SK's claim. Post #874 by him does genuinely feel like a powerrole preferring to stay hidden rather then scum setting up a fakeclaim. Furthermore (bit WIFOMy argument), tracker with gun is not something scum is likely to fakeclaim, IMO. If they decide to claim they have a gun, they are far more likely to come up with a more traditional role. And finally, if we have a scumteam of three (which is getting more likely with the claims we've seen so far), two pro-town roles with guns seem about the right amount to include with a gunsmith.

I would prefer not to lynch SK today. I'm willing to switch to Fate to guarantee a deadline lynch, but I'm not a fan of that. I still believe Pie is the best lynch for today.

[MichelSableheart]

@Pie: Kthx had claimed VT during one of his first posts of day 1 already. I'm guessing he repeated that claim upon replacing out to make sure his replacement didn't miss it.

@Michel - could you restate why you feel Pie is the lynch for today? Other then the stuff SK and I went at him with and a general accusation of non-contribution I don't really see the case there.

Short summary: It's mostly the behaviour of his predecessors. NS joining the Ray wagon, Kthx voting TCC, Kthx vote Pome... Each of those votes felt to me like that playerslot was joining an easy bandwagon in the hope of getting a lynch, rather then actually believing they were voting scum. Furthermore, NS behaviour felt like active lurking, which is in my mind confirmed if I see how he responded to Ythan's "NS is lurking" accusation.

[MichelSableheart]

Cyberbob, I believe your post #931 missed the most interesting part of Fate's accusation of you: why did you vote Fate over SK?

[MichelSableheart]

Analysing the nightkill...

Searching for all posts by Henry using msutils reveals no new posts on mafiascum since the last he made in this thread. Even though Col.Cathart hadn't even announced a prod yet, it is likely that Henry would have been replaced soon after the start of day 2. This makes it unlikely that the mafia based their kill on Henry's opinions.

What they did was kill a role who had been slightly guilty of active lurking and who was unlikely to become a mislynch any time soon. It seems a relatively safe kill, removing a pro-town player without giving very much information, and with a chance of hitting a powerrole. However, I can't find any direct powerrole tells.

It does tell me that the mafia did not want to kill any of the high profile players (Thor, Sotty, Copper) at the time. This probably means that either one of those players is scum or non of those players was on the right track. With the main alternative to the Pom lynch being the CSL and TCC wagons, I'm inclined to say that Fate and SK are slightly more likely town, and thor slightly more likely scum.

These are very weak conclusions though.

[MichelSableheart]

Thor, if you believe the claim of SK, why are you still voting him? Either make a case that you actually still belief him to be scum, or vote for one of the other bandwagons. We don't have much time left.

---

Fate, have you realized that it is possible for your suspicions to be wrong? It seems to me that you are not openmindedly analysing new information, but rather are actively looking for ways you can twist it so you can keep your suspicion on the same old targets. Please stop tunneling and start thinking.

Your argument that Ray wouldn't have replaced out if he was a tracker is nonsense, simply because Ray replaced out of all his games on the site.

The tracker fakeclaim you linked to is completely irrelevant. Given a bit of time, I can easily find a game where a town tracker investigated someone who didn't go anywhere, but still kept attacking him.

SK surprised by my gunclaim and afraid of a counterclaim? When he claimed, three players hadn't claimed. Do you honestly believe he didn't expect any of them to claim gun? Also, why wouldn't there be two of the same role in this game?

I completely agree with Socrates that SK's powerrole claim makes sense. Does that make me scum with them?

The fact that you don't suspect Thor and Cyberbob doesn't mean they are automatically town. Your argument that both his scumbuddies claimed before him assumes that you are completely right about your suspicions. As I said before, please be more open minded.

There is every reason SK should remain alive today. The most important one being that he is pro-town.

---

Cyberbob, I'm currently not voting Fate because I haven't seen any actual scumtells from that slot. Yes, she uses a lot of rubbish reasoning, and yes, she is tunneling in extremis, but I haven't seen any arguments whatsoever why scum is more likely to do that then town. In fact, I consider Fate's tunneling to be a slight towntell, simply because scum isn't likely to get so fully behind suspicions they know are wrong. I'm willing to vote Fate if it's needed to guarantee a lynch, but I believe that Pie is by far the better lynch.

[MichelSableheart]

I am not going to hammer SK. I believe a no lynch is better then an SK lynch.

Copper, though I don't like it, a Pie lynch doesn't seem to be happening today. If the two of us switch to fate, Cyberbob will probably be willling to switch back. That way, we might get an acceptable lynch today.

unvote

vote: Fate

[MichelSableheart]

Thor, can you please explain a bit further why you are eliminating charter from your list of possible scum? He may have been the first on the bandwagon, but his vote for Fate doesn't strike me as obv town. In fact, I would list Socrates as more likely town then charter.

I still believe Pie is likely scum. My push for a Fate lynch at the end of yesterday was mainly the result of not wanting to see SK lynched.

Vote: Pie_is_good

I'm not a fan of massclaim anymore. The mass gunclaim did what I wanted to accomplish.

[MichelSableheart]

unvote

I have to partially agree with Pie that this wagon is moving a bit too fast with too little reasoning. There's more to this game then just the posts made today. I'm not certain enough of charter and Cyberbob to be comfortable seeing them joining me on an L-2 within 24 hours of the day starting.

@Pie: This definately does not mean I'm not suspicious of you anymore. In particular, I don't like the term scumminess:posting ratio. Actions speak louder then words. I consider the fact that you were arguing in favour of an SK lynch is a strong mark against you.

And what did you want to accomplish with the gunclaim, Michel?

If I wanted to explain, I would have done so in my previous post. I will give my reasons eventually, but definately not now.

His early voice for Fate strikes me more as more town then scum performing either bussing or a 'vote for your partner while no one else really is so eventually if they are lynched some day phase you'll earn town points' stratagem.

Early voice? Socrates, Copper and Sotty all voted Fate before charter did, and only Sotty really argued against a Fate lynch when she unvoted her.

I can easily see charter scum voting fate there. He couldn't keep his vote on Copper after Sotty's claim. He couldn't really vote SK, because an L-1 vote on such a rapidly moving bandwagon would draw quite a bit of heat. He had the choice of voting Pie, Fate or Socrates. Why wouldn't he vote a partner there when at that point it didn't look like it would likely lead to a lynch?

I'm not saying charter is obv scum, but I'm not willing to rule him out completely either.

[MichelSableheart]

Michel: Why is pushing SK death scummy exactly?

Because pushing SK death is pushing for the lynch of a pro-town power role over a member of the mafia. That behaviour is very beneficial for scum, and therefore more likely to be done by scum then by town.

Given how Fate pushed for SK's lynch at the end of the day, it is extremely unlikely that they are scum together. Fate could easily and without arousing (more) suspicion unvote SK after his tracker claim. She didn't. And then there are the arguments I gave at the end of yesterday about how pro-town tracker fits the setup and his and Ray's behaviour.

In comparison, we know Fate was scum. She was the only alternative lynch you could have pushed for yesterday. You didn't comment much on her, but were arguing mildly against her lynch for the most part.

---

@Thor: I have to agree with SK on that one. A very large part of your posts is devoted to asking questions for everyone and everything. Your actual accusations and opinions are far less obvious.

A recent example of this is post #962. It is your first comment on SK after SK claimed, which was highly relevant new info. Your gut reaction was to accept SK's claim. You express doubt about Pie's push for an SK lynch. There is no indication whatsoever in that post that you personally still are in favour of an SK lynch. When I question you on that post, you state however that "my gut reaction is to believe SK's claim" does not mean that you believe SK's claim. With such an important event happening so shortly before deadline, I would have expected a far more explicit stance.

---

I believe that Pie and Thor are the most likely scumcandidates at this point. Charter and Cyberbob are the other two players who I still can see as scum. Copper, SaintKerrigan and Socrates are town.

[MichelSableheart]

What all this is leading to is that I am in support of a massclaim today, unless Michel can give me a very convincing reason why he feels hiding his role serves the town better than making it known.

I can't explain without claiming. All I can say is that it's better for the town if my precise role isn't known. If you trust me, please drop the subject. If you don't trust me enough to take my word for this, please state so. In that case, I'll claim during massclaim, and will explain then.

Note that I, personally, have no reason to believe other players claiming will be harmful to the town. I have no objections to other players claiming. However, I can't in good faith demand that they do so and simultaneously request that I be exempt.

[MichelSableheart]

Charter's explanation for voting Pie is satisfying.

@mod:

Prod Cyberbob please?

[quote="Pie]Because I was arguing in favor of SK lynch, or because I was implicitly arguing against Fate lynch? [/quote]Both.

If it's the former, I will say that I'm still highly suspicious of SK, and if your objection to this is just that SK claimed tracker, you need to learn to stop fellating power roles.

It's not just the fact that he claimed tracker. It's that his claim matches Ray's behaviour, SK's behaviour and the setup. Furthermore, it is an unlikely fakeclaim for scum to make, especially considering that scum tracker is unlikely given what I've seen from the setup so far. Add to that that the most suspicious players, including confirmed scum, were on his bandwagon at the end of yesterday, and he becomes extremely likely town.

If it's the latter, yes, I was clearly wrong about Fate. Of course, you could attribute this to me being scum in a desperado move to save my partner, but then it's only really a scummy action if you go into it with the assumption that I'm scum. Which is hardly something I can defend against. Also, WIFOM blah blah blah.

P(Pie defends Fate|Pie is scum) = high. P(Pie defends Fate|Pie is town) = lower. P(Pie is scum|Pie defends Fate)= higher then normal.

I remember you quoting Socrates at the end of yesterday. Something about writing of obvious scumtells as WIFOM.

Given how Fate pushed for SK's lynch at the end of the day, it is extremely unlikely that they are scum together. Fate could easily and without arousing (more) suspicion unvote SK after his tracker claim.

This is silly. The lynch was between Fate and SK. If they're scumpartners, they stand to lose nothing by bussing each other - either way they're down one member. So bussing can hardly be considered a point in their favor.

I like to believe that you were a possible lynch candidate too. If Fate and SK are scumpartners and you are town, Fate would have unvoted SK and voted you after SK claimed. That she didn't tells me that either SK is town or Pie is scum, or both.

---

I have to disagree with Pie about Thorscum becoming town captain. By actively encouraging discussion, he could get some free town points without putting himself in much risk. People hunting lurkers would see him as very pro-town, people hunting for number of scummy posts would probably end up voting Ray or Ythan.

As for Thor hammering Fate: I consider that a null tell, because both town and scum would do it in that situation.

[MichelSableheart]

You've already claimed, so what other reports do you have? Who did RayFrost track N1?

That was in the post where he claimed. Ray tracked Kthx, who didn't go anywhere.

[MichelSableheart]

@Cyberbob: The main reason I asked for a prod on you is that I wanted to hear your reasoning for voting Pie. Why exactly is he more likely scum?

You don't think Thorscum could have let the day die on a NoLynch?

Not without giving up his previous reputation, no. His last post before the hammer did not contain any indication that he couldn't be around at deadline. If the day ended in a no lynch, he would probably be heavily pressured over it. Besides, Sotty was still around too. If Thor didn't place the hammer, it's likely that Sotty would have done so.

[MichelSableheart]

I liked Charters reasoning, and Cyberbob unvoted, so:

Vote: Pie_is_good

out of four potential suspects, he is by far the most likely scum.

[MichelSableheart]

@Pie: why is assuming certain players are town a dumb thing to do? I'm currently assuming SK, Copper and Socrates are town. SK because I don't belief Fate would have attacked a scumbuddy the way she did attack SK at the end of day 2, Copper because of the no gun investigation and overall behaviour, Socrates because CSL vote for TCC day 1 and Fate attack on Socrates early day 2 are unlikely to come from scumbuddies. As post #1075 shows, SK has similar reasons to believe I am town.

@SK: I don't really have a problem with Pie talking about sandwiches. I'm personally not getting the message, but if he wants to talk nonsense, let him be. The only reason why I may consider it scummy is that he could use it to communicate with teammates. Complaining about it probably won't help much though.

What kind of nonsense is that kill? Please don't make jokes like that. Someone might actually consider it true, and overall they cause far too much confusion.

@Thor, Pie: you may have said it before today, but I lost track of your opinions in the long discussions with SK. Would you please be so kind to tell me who you believe is scum, and why?

[MichelSableheart]

I'm fine with seeing a massclaim going, but will announce ahead of time that I won't claim my role.

I'm liking the latest Copper post.

Not entirely sure if I agree with SK's post on charter, but it's definately something to keep in mind.

[MichelSableheart]

What makes you inclined to disagree with it?

Not inclined to disagree, but not sure if I agree. In particular, I have my doubts if he could have voted you without drawing suspicion. He would have to come up with some significant reasons to disbelieve the tracker claim.

[MichelSableheart]

Any idea why you lost your interest, Socrates?

[MichelSableheart]

For starters, this links Michel to you and not vice versa - it says "If SK is town, Michel is town" but if Michel were to die and flip town it would have no bearing on your alignment.

So what? This argument came from the fact that Copper stated that your scum flip would 95% confirm me as town. SK's reply to that was "you already belief me to be town, don't you think Michel is town then too?". The fact that my flip would give us no information on SK is completely irrelevant to that argument.

For finishers, the fact that you want to assume Michel innocent based on behavior alone is just silly (scummy, even, I'd venture to say). Whichever way you spin it, bussing happens - even unprovoked bussing. It happened in the game I just came from and I see no reason why we should assume it's not happening now.

Interesting. It seems we have a very significant disagreement on what is the best way to scumhunt. I would consider behaviour (who attacks who, and why) far more telling then anything else that can happen in a game of mafia. Unprovoked bussing is generally poor play for scum. It happens, but far less often then genuine attacks. Besides, I like to believe I can spot the difference between the two.

And for middlers, even if everything you said was true, you're asking the entire town to assume Michel innocent when really you're the only one who could reasonably do so.

Have you actually listened to the opinions of the rest of the town on SK?

---

@Pie: At the very least, it comes pretty close for me. Nothing in Troll/Cyber's behaviour seems actually indicative of him being scum to me, and the same goes for charter. OTOH, everything important decission made by you or your predecessors seems to be indicative of you being scum.

Furthermore, I believe that Fate (who was under some slight suspicion from Copper) would be far more likely to send in the nightkill then Kthx, who had a significant wagon formed against him.

The no target result of SK on you is a point in your favour, but I believe you are still more scummy then most. The only other player I could see myself voting outside of a deadline lynch is Thor.

[MichelSableheart]

Apologies, extremely busy weekend. Expect real content tomorrow.

[MichelSableheart]

I'm really not liking Cyberbob's vote at all. The only thing in 1123 that seems actually indicative of scum is RayFrost's play. In particular, I don't like how he considers SK defending me a scumtell, when SK town would consider me town after the way I pushed a scum lynch over his own.

I don't directly see a scummotivation for that attack though. Given other players opinions on SK, it's unlikely that he feels he can push a mislynch there. Defense of Pie seems also unlikely to me, except perhaps by functioning as lightning rod. But I really don't see how that attack would prevent the Pie lynch that looks like it'll be happening today.

It would be nice if Cyberbob would actually argue why he believe Pie to be town, rather then making this nonsense attack on SK.

I personally still think a Pie lynch is the way to go today. SK, you're voting Thor. Do you believe that Thor is a better lynch then Pie? If yes, why? If no, can you please switch your vote?

Thor, any reason why you're not voting?

Socrates, any opinions whatsoever?

[MichelSableheart]

@Cyberbob: you may find the reactions to such switcheroos amusing, but I fail to see how they help catch scum. I find it extremely difficult to take you seriously.

[MichelSableheart]

I really hope you're not planning to wait for the replacement to catch up, thor. I don't want to wait another week with not much happening, when it is highly unlikely that waiting will change anything. I believe it's better for the playability of the game as a whole if you hammer, and hear the replacements comments tomorrow.

@Cyberbob: I'm a bit surprised to hear that your vote for SK is genuine, actually. If I look at the post where you vote him, I see you arguing how SK's behaviour would make sense if he were scum (SK scum -> actions), but as far as I can see, you fail to argue why SK is actually more likely scum then town (actions -> SK scum).

[MichelSableheart]

Then it seems we are simply in a very serious disagreement.

Thor, I don't have anything to say anymore for today. Feel free to hammer.

[MichelSableheart]

Apologies, I still am rather busy, and can't spend nearly as much time on this game as I would like.

I still don't want to claim, and I still very firmly believe in the pro-townness of SK.

I'll have to do a very thorough reread in order to reform my opinions on the other players, but don't know if I'll even get to that this game day. Current gut based suspicions would be from scummy to likely town: Cyberbob, Charter, Thor, Steam.

Had Kerrigan not claimed until now, and claimed a no result, block, block, I'd be lynching him no questions asked. Claiming like that in LYLO is just an appeal to the town hoping they have a subconscious aversion to lynching power roles.

There is a very significant difference between that scenario and what we're observing now: in that scenario, SK would not have claimed, making it much more unlikely that he would be blocked two nights in a row. As a claimed powerrole who is under a bit of suspicion, that is not an unlikely scenario though.

I'm trying to do these hypothetical setups in my head. Michel definitely needs to claim today so we have the final piece of the puzzle.

I still believe that the information gained by the town from me claiming at this time is not enough to outweigh the significant disadvantages of me claiming.

[MichelSableheart]

Michel, I can't remember if I asked you about this before, but what is your opinion on the idea of Charterscum tunneling his scumbuddy Fate?

Fate didn't have any votes on him when Charter voted. I could see him make that vote as distancing, with the intention to switch away later. When he made post #965, a Fate lynch still didn't look extremely likely. I don't really see Charter tunneling on Fate (he was investigating others), so I think his vote of Fate could be distancing.

Well, I don't. If we don't lynch correctly today then it's game over and your role provides no information, so you need to claim today.

And give up our only chance of winning if we mislynch, when my claim doesn't do anything to help prevent said mislynch? I thought not. SK is town, therefore scum has a roleblocker. I'm not going to tell them how they should use it.

[MichelSableheart]

Having thought about it, the nightkill of Copper isn't nearly as strange as it is made out to be. Due to Sotty investigating Copper as not having a gun, Copper was effectively confirmed innocent. Besides, they were one of the most outspoken supporters of SK as town. Their nightkill would remove a major obstacle in getting an SK mislynch today. And finally, killing copper would mean casting doubt on both claimed powerroles, without risking the info role gaining any new information. All in all, the copper nightkill seems a very attractive option to scum.

I still very strongly belief SK is town. The pressure he is under suggests that scum are trying to pull of his mislynch. Because of this, I believe at least one of Cyberbob and Charter is scum. I doubt the two of them are together, though. Pushing for the same mislynch when none of the town has shown support for that lynch is a rather risky business, because it makes it extremely difficult for them to switch to a different target if that mislynch looks more likely.

The argument that SK's claim is unbelievable is not nearly as strong as it is made out to be. If there are two investigative roles, it is likely that scum have a roleblocker. And if scum have a roleblocker, it is likely that they'll use it to prevent the most suspicious claimed inforole from gaining additional information while keeping him around for a future mislynch.

I believe that a blocked tracker is likely to rolefish on his target, as it is the only way for him to get information out of his role. SK's choice of words could have been better ("I submitted Thor as my nightchoice last night. Before revealing the result I received, I would like him to claim his nightactions"), but the words he chose are not nearly as scummy as they are made out to be. I would like to note that SK was not under serious pressure at that point in time: both me and Copper had very explicitly stated that we didn't want to see him lynched. Therefore, SK had the right to ask the question.

About's SK's behaviour on day 2: I believe I have already commented on this way back then. Catching up with this game takes time, especially when other players are posting in the meantime. Like SK, I had troubles getting a grip on the game. That he didn't post much analysis during day 2 doesn't come as a surprise to me.

[MichelSableheart]

@ Michel: I disagree that Charter and Cyberbob can't be scum together. Charter says that I'm so scummy that he's ruling his previous suspects "probably town" as a result of it, and despite being this sure that I'm scum, he doesn't vote for me. This fits right along with the idea that scum want to keep their options open.

Also, there is some support from other people for the idea of my lynch, if we go by their suspect lists (SPS has me at #1, and if Thor's list is in order of suspicion I'm at #2). It isn't unfeasible in my mind for scum to try and present new "evidence" to try and coax those suspicions into votes.

That support from other people was only shown after both Cyberbob and Charter had explicitly declared that they were suspicious of you, though. The order is incorrect for that explanation.

Also (working from memory here), do you really think that Cyberbob and Charter would both simultaneously have distanced themselves from their third scumpartner? The Fate wagon was started because the two of them voted. I can see one scummember distancing, but two makes the lynch of a teammate far too likely.

I see a lot of logic in your Copper NK logic. There's probably also some logic to the concept that Copper wouldn't have been a mislynch they could get so one might as well get rid of him. How do you feel about SK's obvious lashing out at anyone who questions her?

As I said yesterday, Cyberbob's case had very little merit. And if I look at the way suspicion is developing against him today, I would not be surprised to see that scum is pushing for a mislynch there. From the POV of SK, who knows himself to be town, Charter's switch would definately be very suspicious.

[MichelSableheart]

No, on SK.

You asked me how I felt about SK lashing out at his attackers. The first line explained how I felt about SK lashing out at Cyberbob. The second two lines explained how I felt about SK lashing out at charter.

[MichelSableheart]

Up till now I've been more or less clearing Socrates in my mind because of Fate's push on him at the beginning of Day 2. What are your thoughts on that and on Socrates?

I ask, because if I clear Socrates for that, and I clear you and SK for the PR claim (since 3 PRs vs. 3 scum w. roleblocker does feel balanced) then that leaves obv. scumpair of charter/Cyberbob which seems unlikely since I agree with you that the dual distancing towards Fate seems unlikely. Therefore either my Socrates clearing reason isn't valid, or you or Kerrigan are lying about being town PR. Thoughts?

I am inclined to clear Socrates. It's not just Fate's push at the beginning of day 2, but also CSL unexplained vote halfway through day 1, near the original deadline.

Following the same reasoning as you do (SK is town, Socrates likely town, Charter/Cyberbob not scum together), this leads me to concluding that you are very likely scum. I still haven't found time to do a proper reread, unfortunately.

From your point of view, at least one of the three assumptions (SK and Michel town, Socrates town, Charter/Cyberbob not scum together) has to be wrong.

And 2 PRs vs. 3 vanilla goons doesn't feel balanced?

It may be worth noting that I consider Gunsmith + my role vs 3 vanilla goons unlikely.

[MichelSableheart]

Btw, has anyone else noticed that Cyberbob has done practically no scumhunting today? He votes me for a case he made yesterday (which I rebutted twice and he hasn't supported it since) and names Michel as my partner solely for scumbuddying without proving why our buddying is scum-motivated. In other words, he isn't doing anything except trying to push my lynch with little to no sufficient reasoning. If anyone can give me a town motivation for doing this, please do so, because I'm hard-pressed to think of anything town about this behavior.

It seems to me more laziness then anything. He didn't really have a reason to expand on his suspicions, because the only players who have actually questioned his suspicions yesterday are you and me, who he is actually suspicious of. The other players may have made remarks that his case wasn't very convincing, but haven't actually tried to get him to make a serious case.

---

Time to actually start doing that reread. I'll be mainly looking at the living players and their predecessors minus Rayfrost/SK and at Fate and her predecessors.

The first part of day 1 does not seem to hold much information. Thor is heavily pushing Ythan, Troll/Cyberbob is the first to vote TCC. TCC/SPS is continually posting V/LA without actually contributing anything, and Inquisitor/charter isn't doing much better.

The TCC wagon is really the first interesting point in this game. Inquisitor/charter was already voting him, Troll/Cyberbob starts it, Thor is the second to support it, and CSL/Fate joins it without explanation. I find the latter in particular to be a towntell for TCC/SPS, simply because if CSL wanted to distance, he probably would have provided a bit more reasoning.

Charter's #608 is an interesting replacing in post. Townreads on confirmed/likely scum, scumreads on confirmed/likely town. Later in #642 attacks Copper for defending TCC and attacking CSL.

Looking at the Pom wagon, Thor is the only player out of the potential scumcandidates who was actually pushing it. TCC was inactive, and both Troll/Cyberbob and Charter hopped on late to prevent a no lynch. Interesting to note is that Troll/Cyberbob calls the Pom wagon scumbait, while also mildly proposing a CSL lynch.

---

Having read day 1, I'm getting a town read on SPS. Furthermore, Charter is starting to look slightly more suspicious then Cyberbob.

[MichelSableheart]

I'm terribly sorry, but I have run out of time again. It's 2.30 am for me now, and tomorrow will be just a normal day.

I realize that I am giving this game not nearly the amount of time it deserves. I hope to be able to finish my reread before the game day is over, though.

[MichelSableheart]

I keep hitting my time constraints. Perhaps I will be able to work on my reread this afternoon, but I'll almost certainly only finish it tomorrow.

@SK: is charters sudden switch to you the only reason that you believe he is scum? Do you encompass previous days in your reads in any way?

@Michel - You have cleared shovel for the same reasons I have. You have also openly and extensively discussed how you feel SK is cleared. You then have continued with a belief that scum is pushing a mislynch on SK but that charter and Cyberbob really can't be scum together.

Why aren't you voting me then? I'm the obvious partner at that point.

The main reason is that I haven't finished my reread yet. I want to doublecheck that my reasoning for clearing SPS and eliminating an charter/Cyberbob scumteam is correct before voting on it. A second reason is that a vote on you may not be very helpful. Even if through proces of elimination I do manage to pin you down as scum, I don't know if that'll be enough to actually convince three other players to vote for you. After all, those other players don't have my vantage point. It may be that I'll be forced to vote who I believe to be your scumpartner, simply because a lynch on you is not feasible.

[MichelSableheart]

Sorry SK, but can you please drop the point? The rest of the town has stated that they don't find that particular argument very convincing, so please drop it and move on. I have better things to do with my time then read a page of endless bickering that isn't going anywhere.

[MichelSableheart]

I was planning to get my reread finished today, but didn't even manage to finish day 2. Hopefully I can make it tomorrow.

And I have to apologize. I'm playing far below par in this game. I have far less time to spent then I would have liked and expected.

[MichelSableheart]

Continuing my reread.

Rereading Fate's attack on Socrates (#705), I notice how she mentions that she didn't replace into TCC slot because she found that slot scummy. A slightly more likely explanation is that she didn't want to replace in there because others found that slot scummy, but that statement at least implies that she would have attacked TCC's replacement regardless of whether he was her partner or not. It still makes SPS less likely to be scum, but it isn't the obv towntell I thought it was before.

Interesting to see is that both charter and Troll/cyberbob shortly afterwards join the Socrates wagon. charter keeps posting after that, switching to voting Copper, Troll goes inactive.

Also Interesting to note is how Thor is calling Fate suspicious throughout a large part of day 2, but didn't put out any vote whatsoever. Slight scumtell as it allows him to distance from Fate without putting her in serious risk. When he does finally vote, it's for lack of contribution. As seems more often the problem with Thor, he has trouble actually making the reasons for his suspicions clear.

Charters vote for Fate in #902 is made when noone else is voting Fate. It didn't immediately put her in danger of being lynched. I can see this vote as potential distancing, though it's not a scumtell.

Cyberbob's vote for Fate is joining charter. It's unlikely those two are scumbuddies, especially because they are both voting what is now confirmed scum. This vote is also easily interpreted as distancing, as I'm having trouble seeing the actual reasoning. He is less inclined to stick to his vote then charter is.

On with day 3.

both charter and Cyberbob quickly join me in voting Pie. Those votes came so quickly, that it looked to me like pie was the planned mislynch of the day, and scum is getting a bit overeager there. I believe at least one of the two is scum. charter seems more likely, as Cyberbob wanders of the wagon reasonably quickly.

I would like to point out that during most of the beginning of day 3, Cyberbob did not mention any suspicion on SK at all. His switch to voting SK is rather sudden, and seems to be based for a large part on a connection with me which I know to be incorrect. It doesn't strike me as something scum is likely to do, though. It risked drawing the attention to Cyberbob more then that it helped setting up an SK lynch in the future.

And finally day 4.

Charter going to the SK wagon is a rather suspicious move. With Cyberbob already voting SK, and SPS listing SK as his top suspect after a short read, SK had suddenly become a potential mislynch target, and charter switching to voting him could very well be scum trying to take advantage.

Thor's latest vote for Charter is relevant. However, I don't really see where else his vote could go. A vote for SK would mean having to come up with a potential scumpartner, which almost would have to be me. And that is something Thor has been arguing against all day.

---

Conclusions:

I already was convinced SK is town.
At most one out of charter & Cyberbob is scum.
At least one out of charter & Cyberbob is scum.
Therefore, one out of Thor/SPS is scum.
charter is far more suspicions then Cyberbob.
SPS is far more likely town then Thor.
Therefore, the scumteam is charter/Thor.

Thor's potential strategy for tomorrow seems rather simple: get a lynch on Cyberbob. If Thor is roleblocker, he can keep SK (who is convinced of a charter - cyberbob pairing) alive. That should eventually bring him in a 3 player endgame which he could win.

The suspicion on charter is stronger, and the suspicion on Thor weaker then before I started my reread.

Vote: Charter

[MichelSableheart]

Why couldn't I have tried to sell the Shovel as a partner? Also I could have stuck to my guns and voted Cyberbob and claimed charter as the partner to lynch tomorrow. I probably could have got SK to come that way as well since she suspects a Cyber/charter and you had, until just now, been saying you suspected either a Cyber or a charter.

Both cases weren't very likely lynches though. Charter and Cyberbob are both going hard after SK, so it is impossible to find four people for an SPS lynch. Cyberbob is theoretically possible, but there also was no momentum that way. It would have been difficult at least to get four people on Cyberbob before deadline.

Is there a reason I can't be town who is suspicious of charter more then SK because he's buying into a belief that there are power roles in the game other then a single Gunsmith?

Yes, proces of elimination. Charter & Cyberbob aren't scum together, and SPS is far more likely town then you are. My statement on your charter vote wasn't to say that I consider it a scumtell, but to say that I could see scum making that move.

I have to agree that going after SK was the more obvious scum move, but that would have definately gotten you suspicion from me, SK and likely SPS.

[MichelSableheart]

SK nightkill is unsurprising, still unwilling to claim.

@SPS: what makes you so certain that you would be killed at night?

@Thor: we aren't lynching randomly. Not every nightkill is equal. If there is a player who you are convinced is town, and that player gets nightkilled, that doesn't help you in any way with determining the next day's lynch, it only removes the advice of the obvious town player. Or are you honestly saying that you consider all of us equally likely scum?

I agree that a nightkill of one of you three would help me determining who to lynch, and a nightkill of me would probably do the same for you, so it's not necessarily a bad idea. I'm mainly concerned that we may be forced to lynch eventually.

Mod: What happens if town continually votes No Lynch, and mafia continually refuses to kill?

I still believe it is not very likely for charter and cyberbob to be scum together. Especially their simultaneous attack on Fate during day 2, which made Fate a possible lynch, is unlikely to come from scumpartners.

I think SPS is more likely town, because of how CSL voted for his predecessor during day 1.

Through proces of elimination, I am inclined to believe Thor is scum.

I would really like to hear cyberbob's thoughts, and would like to consider the possibility of a no lynch some more.

[MichelSableheart]

A nightkill of Thor would upset all my suspicions, a nightkill of cyberbob or SPS would eliminate a potential scum candidate, a nightkill of me would not be disastrous, and no nightkill at all would tell us that the mafiamember is happy with the situation as it is.

I don't want this game to end in a draw, so I'll definately vote for a lynch tomorrow. I do want to see what the mafia decides to do tonight, though.

Vote: No Lynch

[MichelSableheart]

Yes, I am certain that I want a no lynch. I can't think of a scenario where it would immediately give the win to scum, so I'm not very affraid of the fact that Thor wants a no lynch. Similary, I'm not affraid of Thor taking out his biggest detractor, because doing so would make him far more obviously scum.

[MichelSableheart]

@SPS: you were convinced that you would die during the night, because it would be the right move for Thor. You didn't die during the night, though. Why didn't Thor sent in a kill?

@Thor: you wanted a No Lynch. What does the No Kill tell you?

I'm going to write down my current thoughts now, I'll give them once both these questions have been answered.

[MichelSableheart]

Ok, as promised, my thoughts (everything above the line written before reading the replies):

First of all, Cyberbob is town. There is absolutely no reason whatsoever for him to No Kill. He could kill me, and SPS would be virtually guaranteed to vote Thor. Or he could kill SPS, and he would have little to no trouble convincing me to vote Thor. A No Kill is either done by someone who is happy to settle for a draw, or someone who believes his best chance of winning is forcing the town to lynch. Cyberbob doesn't fit either of those descriptions.

The No Kill makes me far less suspicious of Thor. Thor knows that I would be unwilling to No Lynch again (I've made sure to make that clear). By No Killing, he must convince two players to follow his vote to a mislynch, rather then one. Killing Cyberbob and hoping to convince me to vote SPS would probably have been his safest bet.

On the other hand, a No Kill makes perfect sense from the point of view of SPS. Both me and Cyberbob are rather uncertain quantities, and by killing one of us, he risks Thor being able to convince the other. OTOH, we both have expressed a certain willingness to lynch Thor, and I have announced that I won't be willing to No Lynch again, so by No Killing, he would feel a Thor lynch would be certain.

Regarding the questions I asked:

I asked Thor what he has learned from the No Kill. If Thor is mafia, he knew a No Kill would come, and he knew he would have to come up with a very good story to get a mislynch today. If Thor is mafia, I'm expecting a very strong explanation why one of the other players No Killed. OTOH, if he is town, the No Kill will be more of a surprise to him, and I expect his answer to show far less conviction.

I asked SPS why Thor No Killed. If SPS is mafia, he made the No Kill believing that getting a mislynch on Thor would be a piece of cake. It is unlikely that he has thought about why Thor would actually No Kill. If SPS is mafia, I'm expecting a reply along the lines of "how should I know?". OTOH, if SPS is town, he would be less certain of his read and more likely to doubt. I expect him to put a bit more thought into the question if that is the case.

Some other remarks:
Just noticed that the deadline had been put back a week just before CSL voted TCC. That makes his vote far less likely to be made in hope of getting an easy mislynch.
Voting Charter before SPS did is definately a point in Thor's favour.

---

Reading the answers, Thor's reply feels exactly what I expect from town. SPS' answer is better then I expected, though.

I have a feeling that SPS is the last remaining scum, but I'm far from certain. I am unwilling to No Lynch today, so if Cyberbob has a strong preference for lynching Thor, I'll switch.

Vote: Steam-Powered Shovel

[MichelSableheart]

Scumhunting from the concept of preparedness? Has that actually worked for you in the past?

Scumhunting based on different reactions has for me, yes.

@SPS: you don't have to worry about this game ending in a draw. My reads are somewhere between 40-60 and 48-52. If Cyberbob wants to stick to a Thor lynch, I'll definately switch over, as said before.

1) a no-kill breaks the narrative. It makes people stop and reconsider their position. Considering how anti-Thor Cyberbob was looking at the end of Yesterday, a Cyberbobkill wouldn't have. That's what I would've done if I'd been scum in this situation.

I'm a bit biased, of course, but this reply misjudges to what extend I was No Lynching for info yesterday. I definately would have stopped and thought if Cyberbob had been killed.

2) If I'm scum, I definitely want to win this. That means getting both of you on my side against Thor. Having both of you alive means I risk Thor convincing either of you for the draw and thus makes the Thorlynch less certain.

I don't want this game to end in a draw, so I'll definately vote for a lynch tomorrow. I do want to see what the mafia decides to do tonight, though.

What part of "I don't want this game to end in a draw" don't you understand? Convincing me would not have been enough for Thor.

@SPS: I think you WERE excessively more anti-Thor then Cyberbob. Reading his posts, the feeling I get is "I'm happy with a Thor lynch because I don't really suspect anyone else" whereas you read "It's completely obvious that Thor is scum". That's rather a big difference there.

[MichelSableheart]

Take your time, Cyberbob, and please inform me of any conclusions you reach.

[MichelSableheart]

This boils down to the heart of my issue with your Cyberbob clearing.

For Cyberbob it would make perfect sense to lynch SPS because you [Michel] would be easy to convince to vote Thor.

For SPS it is an uncertain quantity and if he kills Cyberbob it is risky that I [Thor] will manage to convince Michel not to vote me.

I really don't see why in SPS's case Michel is easy to pull away from a Thor vote and in Cyberbob's case Michel is a relatively easy Thor vote.

There are three reasons for this difference.

The first reason is something I stated on the day we lynched Charter.

Conclusions:

I already was convinced SK is town.

At most one out of charter & Cyberbob is scum.
At least one out of charter & Cyberbob is scum.

Therefore, one out of Thor/SPS is scum.
charter is far more suspicions then Cyberbob.
SPS is far more likely town then Thor.
Therefore, the scumteam is charter/Thor.

Thor's potential strategy for tomorrow seems rather simple: get a lynch on Cyberbob. If Thor is roleblocker, he can keep SK (who is convinced of a charter - cyberbob pairing) alive. That should eventually bring him in a 3 player endgame which he could win.

The suspicion on charter is stronger, and the suspicion on Thor weaker then before I started my reread.

If you look at my analysis of the situation there, I first narrow my suspicions down to one of charter/cyberbob and one of thor/SPS, and only afterwards narrow it down within those groups. Following this reasoning, if I am going to change my mind on lynching Thor, it was far more likely that I would switch to voting SPS then to voting Cyberbob.

The second reason is how likely each kill is made by you. Killing SPS would mean taking out your biggest attacker. Cyberbob sounded far less convinced when he voted you yesterday. It therefore makes more sense for you to kill SPS then to kill Cyberbob. This means that if SPS is killed, that kill is more likely to be made by you, which in turn means that I am more likely to vote you. OTOH, if Cyberbob is killed, that is a far weaker tell for you being scum, meaning I would be more likely to change my mind.

The final reason is post 1456:

Similary, I'm not affraid of Thor taking out his biggest detractor, because doing so would make him far more obviously scum.

This statement was made in a post where I adressed the arguments against a No Lynch. This was made in response to SPS' concerns that he would be nightkilled, fearing that this wouldn't give us any info at all. I quite literally say that I would be far more suspicious of Thor if SPS dies, whereas I make no such statements about a Cyberbob nightkill.

To summarize: after an SPS nightkill, I would be far more likely to vote Thor then after Cyberbob was killed.

[MichelSableheart]

How do you define the difference between charter Cyber teaming on Fate as opposed to say charter Fate teaming on Copper - is it simply you don't think scum tend to vote together that quickly, or rather that you think they wouldn't do it to a scumbuddy?

I don't think they would do it to a scumbuddy. If you look at the vote count when they had both voted, you'll see that by voting Fate, Cyberbob created a rather even distribution of votes. Shortly afterwards, SK votes Fate, after which me and copper switch to voting Fate because we don't want to see an SK lynch. If Cyberbob voted either SK or Pie, the Fate wagon wouldn't have been strong enough for me to turn it into a lynch.

This is some serious playing of both sides of the fence. You go from "Thor's reply feels exactly what I expect from town" to "I have a feeling that SPS is the last remaining scum, but I'm far from certain" and then go on even further to say that you'd be willing to lynch Thor.

the reason is that I am far from certain. Before last night, I was extremely suspicious of Thor, and only mildy suspicious of SPS. The No Kill and resulting discussion made me believe SPS is more likely to be scum then Thor, but not nearly to the extend that I'm willing to clear Thor as town. If we No Lynch again, scum can No Kill again for the draw. I don't want that to happen. If you decide to vote Thor, the only way a lynch could happen is if I switch my vote to Thor. Because I still think there is a significant chance of Thor being scum, I would be willing to do so.

Have you claimed your full role yet Michel? I forgot.

I haven't yet fully claimed, and I would prefer not to.

[MichelSableheart]

Is there some reason why you don't want to claim your role that even being in LYLO isn't sufficient to overcome?

Why the continued pressure? I would prefer not to claim. If there is information on my role that I want you to know, I'll tell you.

I won't be able to log on to the forums tomorrow.

[MichelSableheart]

@Cyberbob, a check to make sure: Does your vote on Thor mean that you are not interested in lynching SPS today?

[MichelSableheart]

Ok. In that case:

Unvote

Vote: Thor665

[MichelSableheart]

Thanks for a game well modded, CC!

I liked the setup. One shot PGO is a rare role, but works very well with a gunsmith in the game. Overall, very well balanced. I have to agree with Fate though that it's extremely difficult for scum to get rid of the one shot PGO. Especially the scenario where he claims, and is believed because of the gunsmith seems to guarantee town a free scumkill or a draw.

Flavour was excellent.

Overall, I found this game enjoyable. In particular, finding the right way of playing my role was very interesting. I had hoped that scum would rule out the possibility of PGO because a full PGO doesn't make sense with a gunsmith, but oh well.

---

@Thor: What would you have done if you came to the conclusion that Cyberbob was the scum? I really don't see how you could even hope to get a lynch on him.

The main reason I was suspicious of you was that I had no reason whatsoever for a town read. You were influential in the Pome mislynch, only joined the Fate lynch at the very last minute (your behaviour that day towards Fate could very well be distancing), you were on the Pie lynch, you were openly considering switching to Kerrigan day 4. I thought your behaviour could have come from scum. Add to that that the CSL vote for TCC really looked like trying to get an easy lynch, and I did have reasons for being suspicious of you.

I was willing to lynch you because I knew that even if I was wrong, we would be guaranteed a draw. 40% chance to win, 60% chance to draw is better then the 100% chance to draw I would get if I was only willing to lynch SPS.

In fact, I am really surprised no one from town checked that spot, considering that it was a occupied by Ythan at some point.

Locke had replaced in before the end of day 1, and I made very sure I wasn't an investigative target from night 2 onwards. I'm not very surprised to see the role wasn't targetted at all, TBH.

[MichelSableheart]

The only sane way to answer this is - I would have tried to get him lynched anyway.

At Lylo I don't see how anyone who is town cannot be trying to get a lynch on who they think is the most likely scum.

As you may have understood from the last day, I disagree on that point. You'll never reach 100 percent certainty, and especially if you are doubting like you did on the last day, I believe it is better to aim for the lynch that you can achieve rather then aim for the impossible lynch and get lynched yourself.

Was my action towards Fate read as distancing simply because I didn't vote for him sooner? If I'd not said anything about Fate and voted as I had would it have seemed scummy? Conversely if I'd said the same things but voted earlier (and how early?) would it have been scummy?

You gave the impression that you didn't want to vote Fate, but were only attacking her to get town points. Both if you had voted sooner or had only voted her to guarantee a lynch, I believe you would have looked less suspicious.